Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 7

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 7 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandel because They're
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  Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and when
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Favorites and download the FanDuel app today to make every
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: moment more this football season. Must be twenty one or
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: older and in select states called one eight hundred gambler
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia one eight hundred next
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: step or text next step to five three three F
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: two in Arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: visit ks gambling help dot com. In Kansas call one
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: and why four seven three six nine. In York, Tennessee,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight eight nine eight nine called
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome back to the favorites
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am chab Noman, Chief
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined by
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am in every single episode by my bff, my
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: companion Michael Padre, Professional Better Simon Hunter Edo. Simon, You've
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: got to say, I know you want to talk about
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the Phillis. I don't Sports equox what a day joke.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: By the way, sports equalnox there is so much to
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: bet on today. We got n HL. For those who
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: don't know, sports equinox is basically when the four major
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: sport are all playing on the same day. It's happened
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: twenty seven times. It's NHL, n b A, Major League, Baseball,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and NFL. Not that easy to get baseball, NFL, NBA
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: and hockey playing at the same time. That's why it's
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: an equinox. Doesn't happen that often. I want to welcome
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: in our live listeners on AMP. We we love doing
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: the show. It's really exciting to do it live. Uh
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: and Simon. In today's episode, we're gonna finalize our final
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: five or get closer. We'll go over sharp calls, We'll
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: do Scoot Roulette, will do the money line, Ron Robin.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I will remind people that on the previous episode we
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: gave away Foxhole. Bet was fort plus three. That's now
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Simon says Washington plus five and
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: a half, it's now four and a half. Exact decision
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: was Texans plus seven. That's still seven. We got a
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: lot to discuss, Like, there's value in listening to it live.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So I'm happy for the people that are because if
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: they're listening and making the plays that we suggest in
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the moment, you're getting the best of the number. And
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: for those who didn't listen live, that's fine. These numbers
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: started moving like over last night and this morning. You're
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: not like penalized by listening to it later. Yeah, and
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: enjoy the live show because I have no no doubt
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: my mind, there's no way agree to this on my
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: next contract with Chat. I just every show live. Yes,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: enjoy this while it lasts. I just I'm the most
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: unprofessional person ever. So if people think this is me
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: being while this is as tamed as I can be,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I promise you um as long as the winning keeps going,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I could care less, but no more offhand joke, especially
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: scientology jokes. I will not mention scientology. This is the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: last time I would say scientology again. Everyone thinks you're
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a Scientology's Chat. You fit the profile to a t.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: You're gonna live forever. You're shady as hell. You're up
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Something's going on there? What is shady about me?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I am the most transparent, authentic. What you see, whizzy
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: wig is what you get? Guy? Yeah right, you act
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: like this nice weet guy. We all know Chat your killer.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: You fit the profile scientologist serial killer Chad moment. Oh
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: my god, that is crazy. I couldn't be more bored.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: My life is exactly as it as it is. It
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: was a story, right. There was a story in the
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: New York Times this week about how people are drinking less,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of it to do with health and wellness.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And I thought to myself, I'm drinking less because of
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: health and wellness, because I want to be able to
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: get up in the morning. I want to have a
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: good night's sleep. I don't find the value in saying
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: how cool it is I got wasted. Don't only slept
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: for four hours, like I want to sleep for as
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: long as I can, and I don't want to get
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: up and do my exercise. So you might be right
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: about that. If scientology means living well, man, that could
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: be a scientiology. Now your vice is gambling. That's a
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: good dvice to have. It's true, It's totally true. I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: mentioned sharp calls. That is when are wise guys start
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: peeing us about out what games we talked about. What's
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: interesting about the live stuff is they were pinning you
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: when we were talking about the Niners and the chiefs
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: of plus three saying bet it right away. They loved it.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So what else did people call about in our cheff calls? Hello,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking? Maybe? Yeah, I thought that was
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: oney that a couple of buddies, Um, a couple of
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the pros download the app, the ampapp and when were
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: listening to us live, and as soon as we gave
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: out the forty niners, they're just like, that's that's gotta
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: be the one. You gotta give that out. So yeah,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: we were luckily on it down to two and a half. Now. Um,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: again we were texting about it. I thought the line
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: was gonna move based off the fourty night as injury
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: move it was positive. It was positive injury news. The
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: line moved down. So again, these pros, they're on the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: last week with the Bills. I think maybe the general
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: public is too high in the Chiefs and they should be.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I still think the Chiefs are so good. Maybe they're
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: just gonna slump here, and that's what the pros are
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: betting on, because crazy the book moved the two and
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: a half on this number. Like we talked about it,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: every every Joe Schmoll that walks into a casino this
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: weekend is going to see a two and a half
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: line on a Chiefs team that they envisioned is much
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: better than a four and niners team, and everyone's gonna
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: be taking that. Where Again, it's me and Chad's job
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: to look at the other way and what are four
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: straints and what are the weaknesses of that Chiefs team.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And obviously it's the run game that favors his four
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Nighters team so heavily against again a run team that's
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: not been good stopping the run last three weeks and
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs team. So that was a call. I got
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a bunch just a lot of pros love the four
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Niners this week the line movement reflected that. Um, the
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: next one what I got called about again the line
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: has already moved a decent amount um right when we
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: talked about it Seattle, Well, hold on to Seattle. Let
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: me say one thing about the four and Niners and
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, just from a betting perspective. Uh, you mentioned
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the public is going to be all over the Chiefs.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: The bets on the chief right now, and this line
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: moved in the opposite direction, went from three to two
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: and a half. So that should tell you everything you
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: need to know about how much money is coming in
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: on the fort And I will say what's interesting is
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: earlier in the week about of the money was on
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the forty nine on the Chiefs. Now you're seeing that
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: percentage shrink because of the forty niners, injury news and
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: so much wise gut money has moved this down. So
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: you're starting to see a real discrepancy here. Yeah, it's
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: an old saying. I mean, I'm sure Scooch told you
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a few times. A bookmaker loves to say it. It's
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the pro comes in. They've bet ten thousand, they might
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: move a line the public and coming with millions of
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: dollars and they'll just keep a line where it's at.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It's just that's one of the biggest things you look
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: for is certain guys moved numbers. The public does not,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: so unless that pro is you or me, And if
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: we bet a hundred dollars, the line moves apparently, But again,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: our show gets reaches so many people. Um, I still
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: think we do move lines with the show. So yeah, Seattle.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I was not surprised that pros we're gonna be on it.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: My surprise is more so that the general public would
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: be so in on Seattle. Where again, it just feels
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: like even against the Cardinals, people are betting the Cardinals
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: on the road against Seattle, I just felt like people
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: already gotten off the Geno train. They're waiting for the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: other shooter drop and here he is. He opened at seven,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: got down to six and a half, down to six,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: now five and a half against the Chargers. So I
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of guys talking about they loved it
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: at six and a half and then we had to
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: take that one. So again I'm okay with the number
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: rides up at you can go back up the six
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: and a half. We would still take in a contest
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: at six and a half or five and a half,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: if that's what it is. But to me, the six
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: and a half is a key number. We talked a
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: little time now about the extra points. Um, I love
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: that number. The last one we weren't again, we weren't
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. A bunch of pros I talked to
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: love the Cowboys in this match up against Detroit. Yeah,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: which was interesting because again I wouldn't. I wasn't gonna
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: say I was gonna make a huge day and on it.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But to me, if you're getting seven and a half
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: seven on Detroit, it felt like kind of a no
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: brain or play. I think their view of it is,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: do you really trust a Troit team that's still not
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: fully healthy yet they still might not have swift back,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: they still might have how dj tark back again, that's
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I guess a big deal to them, where I don't know.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I just thought it was a big deal Docks coming
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: back off a hand hand injury. Um, I feel like
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: you rushed back. I feel like we were getting good points.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So they I don't know if I'm gonna bet it,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: but they might have scared me off and letting me in.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Jeff put the seven and a half in or seven
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: in with Detroit. But I just thought that was interesting.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Stand they think the Cowboys are really that good, Like
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: they put them in the top three, top four team
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: right now in the NFC, where they have a view
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: on Detroit's at bottom two team right now in the NFC.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So again, just difference of opinions. All right, Well, we're
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: gonna get to that. Because as I was preparing for
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: the show this morning, UM, I added one team to
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: the conversation that I wanted to very specific on and
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: it was Detroit. Well, I'm not to hear it out
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: because I was with you, I was on Detroit. I
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: just felt like, again, if I get enough calls about
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: one team, I tend to listen, Right. I just marked
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: it down as like, okay, five different groups I know
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: for sure taking position on the Cowboys. Only one other
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: pro I talked to took a position on Detroit. Well,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get to that one. I'll put it at
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the end. Um, we still owe people a big balls
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: better the week. Who knows, maybe it ends up being
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: the Lions. I think it's becoming an interesting game. Let's
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: start from the top of our list. Uh, Jags minus
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: three against the Giants. I still love this side. And
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I was listening to Stucky and Chris Raban on the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Action Network NFL podcast this morning. Stucky was making the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: case for the Jags their rush defense is third in
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: the league. I think for d v o a you know,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: fancy way of saying advanced stats, they're really good at
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: defending the run. The Giants their best offensive weapon is
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: running the ball. But then he made something really a
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: really good point. The Giants keep winning games on luck
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. And we've talked about the luck
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: rankings on this show, right the rankings that we put
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: out that quantify how lucky teams have been this year.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: No team has been luckier than the Giants, Cordin or Math,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: no team. So I've got a team in the Jacks
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: who had they kind of lost this past weekend that
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: literally almost never happens. No one had never had as
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: good a game as Trevor Lawrence had has and lost
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the game, like statistically, he had the best game ever
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: for a losing quarterback. Um and the Giants keep winning
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: by luck. I know we've talked about the Jacks being
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a team that we might be biased in favor of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: and that could be clouding our judgment, but I don't
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: think it is here. Yeah, again, the tough thing argument
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: with the Giants is there are five and one on
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: one possession games. It's year like they were winning the
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: close games, and I'm with you, that's luck. Well I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: just talked to it. A lot of that does go
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: into coaching and believe in. It's like, again, I don't
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: get what's happening, but yeah, to me, the Jaguar, as
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: soon as that number opened, it was a no brainer.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: And then all the trends and number start pouring in
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: and makes you pause, But it doesn't change my position.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, like that, I think someone was saying it
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: was what two and fourteen. The Jaguars are um playing
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: against NFC teams their last sixteen, So it's like, I
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: think I put too much in a dug change in
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: the culture in one year where it looks like it's
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: gonna take a little while here, like a culture that
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: is just just loses. I mean, yeah, and that Blake
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Bortles year, that was a special year. Don't we all
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: saw through that? Right? That was just a kind of
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a flukey year or the Jaguars made it always this
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: NFC Championship game. They've done nothing but go backwards since then. So, Um,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Jaguars team as a pro, ME and Chat are gonna
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: bet it. We end up talking about and putting in
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the competition. But it's a bizarre line, like the books
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: are getting money on the Giants and they're keeping it
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: at three, and people are thinking they're getting a good,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: good number on a five and one team against what
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Jad just talked about, a bad team and the Jaguars.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: But again, this is a spa where I have to
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: trust the numbers and take the Jaguars. But it's just
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: like man, me and Chat are not gonna be surprised
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: only lose, just because as much as you want to
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: say how lucky the Giants are, the Jaguars are equally
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: unlucky this season. Just it's just two teams on the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: opposite side. So yes, I'm with you, it should flip
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: more than do and the numbers back it up. But
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I bet it too, and I just felt sick to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: my stomach doing it. Um. Something pointed out to me
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: is again we can't do this for the contest, obviously,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: but Jaguars first half, that's where the Giants have struggled.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: They've not been well done well in the first half,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: but the second half is when they keep it close.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: And I've won these games. So unlike me and Chat,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: we don't have that choice. You could just go Jaguars
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: first half and if you want to take a position
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: and iven take full game with the Jaguars, because again,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: they played really well these first half. He's got the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Jaguars team. But to me, if minus three Chat, if
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: it's in our contest at that or minus two and
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a half, I would take it. But I feel like
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: you agree at minus three and a half, maybe we'll pause. Yeah,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think three and a half. I want to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: call you out on one thing that, Mitchell, I feel
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: like we need to get. We need to get like
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: a penalty, flag drop or something. I'm putting the Kai
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: bosh on bullshit. Small sample size, historical trends that mean nothing.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think and I've heard this going around and
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: it's so stupid. I don't think the Jags being two
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and fourteen against NFC teams the last whatever number of
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: years means anything. It's a small sample size, different teams,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: different coaches. The Jags are historically bad against everybody, So
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: you can't take anything into account when it comes to
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a sample size that involves the Jags or a trend
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: that is sixteen games over god knows how many years
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: we're dropping the flag. It's like those new commercials where
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: you throw the replay in there. That's when we're gonna
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: look at we'll regret saying that. Um, they are one
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and three on the road this year, so again, it
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: is an old trend, but there's some there's some merit
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: to it with this team just hasn't won And like again,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, chat, I'm waiting from the turn that corner,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: but you are what your record says. You are right,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: like they just they haven't won games to this point. Um,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong. I'm betting on the Jaguars, so
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I hope that trend is bullshit. So the other game,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I want to get to. Uh, Washington plus five and
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: a half. We talked about this, this was your son
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and says Uh when we recorded, I immediately bet it.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I went into the action app. I clicked on Washington
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: plus five and a half and then I used quick
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Slip technolo aology. I clicked on fan duel from the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Action app. It immediately took me to a bet slip
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in FanDuel. I didn't have to go to FanDuel app,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: open it search for NFL games. Finding that I wanted
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: to make immediately took me there. I could put in
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the amount of money I want to put in make
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: the bet. While you were talking about the Washington commanders.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I made that whole bet. It took me about fifteen seconds.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: If you're in a legal state and you are not
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: using quick slip with Action Network and FanDuel, you are
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: in sane. It is the best way to bet. It
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: is so smooth, seamless technology, auto magical. Here's what I
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: will say, that was an unprompted shameless plug. By the way,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: I feel like you've got in Washington and Green Bay
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to mediocre to bad teams, to mediocre to bad defenses.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: The one thing Washington does well as pressured the quarterback
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: without blitzing. That bothers Aaron Rodgers. He's significantly worse in
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: that situation on other side of the ball. No more.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, Taylor Heineke uh similar QBR for his career,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: similar yards per a tempt for his career, better completion percentage,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: for his career and he's more mobile. So even at
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: four and a half, which this number has moved to,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: we might get that in the contest. I'm still playing
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: in Washington. Yeah, and to me again, we're playing a
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: common numbers game here of how much better is Carson
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: really rated than Heineke. I feel like Chad is nail
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: on the head. It's like the books hung a high
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: number because they expected the public come in on green Bay.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: The public did right, it would state at five and
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: a half, and all of sten, all that pro money
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: just poured in the last twenty four hours, and it's like, yeah,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: should be down to four and a half, should be
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: down to four, would not be shocked again as he
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: had down to three and a half by kickoff. It's
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: just I feel like in held it, it's two teams
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: that aren't that different. Um. The biggest difference is it's
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. It's like, if you're betting green Bay, you're
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: literally betting Aaron Rodgers to bounce back this position. But
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: it's like bounced back and do what like blowout this
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Washington team. It's really hard to blow dominate teams. And
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I look at a washingtoneam that they do really well
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: run the ball. Like again, Robinson looked really good to
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: me last week. Um, I have to take Washington like
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: it was just a no brainer as soon as you
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: saw the way the Jets beat Green Bay, right, they
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: didn't beat it with Zach Wilson. They beat it on
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the ground. Heineken Zach Wilson again, not that different if
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: you grade them out like I look at my grades
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: are not that far off. Heineke's biggest weakness is the
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: stupid turnovers, if you can limit that. Chat, I love this.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I love this matchup so much. Again, people already probably
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: listened to last week new We're gonna have this to
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: my money line around Robin. Crazy to think they're gonna
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: have a three Gays, a three game slide and they're
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be losing to the Giants, the Jets and Washington.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: But that's how football goes, right, Chat Like it comes
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: at you fast. These teams that were really good for
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: a couple of years, they fall off this. This just
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: looks like a down here for Green Bay. Again. I
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: can't believe they have treated for a while receiver. But
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Brandad Cole might be out now. Who who is he
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: going to on third down with this team right now
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: in Green Bay. So to me, it's a bad spot
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: for Rodgers. I would bet it down to three and
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: a half. The fact you can still get four and
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: a half, I'd still grab it now. But yeah, Washington,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: as soon as the game open, I knew we were
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be on it. Um. The fact that we got
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the best of the number, that's always a good feeling. Yeah, No,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: it's great, It's totally great. This is one of those
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: things where we talked about betting ugly all the time. Washington.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: You're betting on a team whose ownership is in disarray. Yeah,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: that hasn't performed. Well, that's starting a backup quarterback against
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: the two time defending NFL m v P and one
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: of the teams considered to be the favorites to win
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the conference. And it's a no brainer, total, no brainer.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: This is a great way to go to go against
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: public perception. Um. All right, well, we know we're gonna
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: be on Washington and the contest the other game, Houston
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: plus seven. It's another one. We're like two teams similarly
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: ranked offensively and defensively. Uh, the Raiders are seven point
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: favorites at home. The tickets on the Raiders, the money
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: on the Texans just based on that you play the Texans.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: But this number is so big. I cannot figure out
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: why this number is so big. Yeah, no, again, we
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: might be stepping. At some pointed out to me that I,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: me and you were on all three of the dogs
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: for the late games. Me and I don't even think
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: that way. Honestly, we're just picking games. I didn't even
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: realize that until yeah, I hear it, Like, yeah, I'm
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: sure specifically a favorite is gonna win. Me and I
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: don't bet that way, Like I'm not only gonna pick
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: a dog or just pick a favorite just to have
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: one in there. Um, I'm with you, Houston. That feels
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: like a good number to me at seven scary a
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: little bit because exactly what you just it feels like
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the Jets last week. I'm trying not to get scared
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: off the number and just trust that it's a good number.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Where it's like, in what world's in Green Bay? Have
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: may be catching seven and a half against the Jets.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Same thing here? And what world is Vegas seven points
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: better than Houston? Anyone? Yeah, I mean, they just haven't
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: shown it to this point, so Houston just plays games
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: close and they let teams back in it. I just again,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, chat. I'm hoping this is seven and
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: a half in our contest because that would be a
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: great number for this But um, at seven, it's it's
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: still a good strong play for me. I don't think
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: we're getting seven and a half. I haven't seen it
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: go to seven and a half anywhere, so I think
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: we'd be pretty lucky if it got there was seven,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: halving a bunch off shores, but that's fair. I haven't
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: seen a seven and a half in America in two days.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: All right, Um, let's talk about the forty Niners and
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs a little bit more. Do we like it
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: enough if the contest line is two and a half
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to still bid the forty Niners? Yeah, I feel like
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: we kind of we kind of half because we're taking
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: such a strong position on it. Um again, it's gonna
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: end up being one of my biggest bets of the week.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: And it's like, try not to put so much weight
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: into three because it's it's rare where games laying on
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: three like they used to. That used to be such
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a key number. Now with the extra points, teams going
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: for two down fourteen everything like that. It just changes
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the math and the rhythm to two and a half
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: to three. So yeah, if you liked it, if you had, yeah,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: me and Cha I would love to make us our
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: big balls, but we already made this our bet um
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: our foxhold bet. So to me, it's it's gonna be
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the hardest bet you have to make. You kind of
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: have to trust me and chat and just the numbers.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: This is a pro bet you make lifetime. You're gonna
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: win this bet. And again that's a big deal. So
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: not only do the numbers back it up where you
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: have a good run scheme for this UM four Niners
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: team against a Chiefs team that early on I thought
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: they might have fixed the running back woes. And then
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: what did we see. We saw them play against teams
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: that can move the ball and run the ball and
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: they absolutely dominated them. That's what the Forts love to do.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: So I'm just going to trust that that's gonna be
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: a close, back and forth game and that again the
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: forty Niners can pull this one out. Because as much
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I'd love to tell you to take the Chiefs, the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: numbers back it up. It's like this game is closer
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to a pick than it should be at plus three.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: That what it was. So that's our reason. I knew
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: right away to give it out and that we were
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be on it was. In fact, everyone's gonna bet it.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I texted Chat, I really didn't think it was going
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: up the plus three and a half and it just
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: went down. So again, that makes me feel good knowing
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: we're with the pros as well. Uh, those are the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: four games that we felt strongest about. Jags minus three,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Washington plus five and a half even at four and
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a half, Houston plus seven plus three. Other games on
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: the list, one of them mentioned in sharp calls. UH
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: plus six in a Seattle plus six and a half
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: now down to five and a half. I'm not surprised
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: this this line has moved. Yeah, the Chargers roster, everyone
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: loves it. Everyone thought they'd be a contender. Everyone thought
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: this was the year they could take over the a
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: f C West. Keenan Allen hasn't played since Week one.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: We don't know what's going on with Bosa. I mean,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Boss is not gonna be playing, Rashawn Slater not gonna
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: be playing. I think they struggled mightily last week against
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the Broncos. They probably should have lost that game. I
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: think that's having a little bit to do with it.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Plus the fact that Gino Smith. Gino Smith looks so
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: good when he steps up in the pocket and throws
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and throws deep and and throws over the coverage. And
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I'm a huge, huge Kenneth Walker fan, huge Kenneth Walker.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, but last year ended up seeing
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of Michigan State football games. I loved this
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: guy at Michigan State. And he's been he's carrying people.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: He either carrying people or people can't flat out tackle
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: him like he's just he's jitterbugging, you know. Amazing player.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Just a bazaar again in Seattle. Coming into the season,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I just thought they'd be trying to make a position
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: to get a top pick. Now they are going to
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: be in position I the top pick, but that pick
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the Broncost pick. So again, life comes
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: at you fast the NFL. Who knows it's gonna happen
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: right early one third way through the season. But the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Genos Smith stuff. It's nothing against Gina. I love the kid.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: W boy, it was just every time he would get
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: these opportunities to play. He would literally light it up
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: and look great for a game or two, and then
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: he would just fall off a cliff and like a
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: team would get a read on the defense, we get
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: a read on them, and then he'd fall off again.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: He didn't light the world on fire last week against
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, but he kept his team in a position
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: to win, and that's what you're looking for with these quarterbacks.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: So if you can have those kind of games and
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: down games and they're rely on the defense to lead
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: him and just not turn the ball over, that's huge
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: for Gina. So in this matchup, loved it at six
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and a half because what we talked about last show,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: it's like, again the Chargers, we know they have the talent,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: we just don't think they have a coaching. They just
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: simply do not like the offensive scheme they're running, the
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: position they're putting Herbert in the fact that he can't
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: really get protection at some points where it's like bizarre
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: that and skiing that up either, it's like just keep
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: your running back instead of always running an eckler out. Um,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know the guy love Seattle. It just sucks
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: down to five and a half, Like, yeah, I'll still
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: take that number. But we had such a nice number
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. I am shocked, but again,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: it makes me feel better knowing that the professionals have
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: coming so heavy on this number because that's a big,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: key number, like moving through the six. That's a big deal.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Books don't want to do that either, because now you
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: talk about the time you just simply tease down the
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Chargers to win. They just need to win out right
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: for you. So interesting movement. If me and you to
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: have it at six and a half of our contest,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I just don't know how. I don't play it on
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Sunday like that's just such a good number. Much be
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: back and forth? Yeah, what about the Falcons plus six?
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is this is the game that
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: is a line, a line of demarcation. We talked about value,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: We talked about getting out of the peak, getting out
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: of the peak of the market. It feels too big
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: for me to still be playing Cincinnati's a six point favorite.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: But are we pressing our Okay, I think it takes bass.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: We've been a six and oh a team a t
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: s are you saying right now? The Atlanta Falcons are
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week big balls better the week
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: because I feel like they wants to do it. They're
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: like you, They're just like are we are? We just
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: walking right into it, Like this team, we should be
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: selling on them. I think they're still in the rat
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: in like they really are in this division. They're tied
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: for right now in their division. They're still plus seven
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: dred most books to win the NFC South. This line,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: I get it. It was plus ten at one point.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: It brought it way down to plus seven, then they
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: brought it down a six and a half, and now
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: they're getting action on both sides. I think that's what
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: we're talking. People are just skeptical of this Atlanta team.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the other side of Cincinnati. They've lost
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: two of their big de tackles up front. That's gotta
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: be a big deal to this team stopping the run.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: We saw that week the Saints were able to move
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: a ball against them without their top weapons. Atlanta is
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: healthy right now. Pitts is back one that's been playing
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: for them, like Mariota's got no in again. I know
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: it was gonna hurt them that have no Cordel Patterson.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: It looks like it doesn't matter. They've been averaging a
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: hundred fifty yards per per game rushing since he's been out.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you, chat, We're gonna get caught eventually.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it's this week again. You're playing
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the matchups to sixty team that just does not blow
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: teams out that play close. They have their own issues, right,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: and keep talking about that Jamaar Chase. He was the
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: difference in that game last week. Guess what Atlanta has.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: They have a shutdown corner that should be able to
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: take him away. So there's a bunch of different little
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: matchups I like for Atlanta. But yeah, six and a
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: half and again another big dog that we liked this week.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: I love it, I man, I mean, I feel like
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I'm ready to Sometimes you get a feel on teams
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: and how the market is responding, and I don't think
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the value has been accurately portrayed in any of the
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Falcons lines yet. And it's mainly because Mary hasn't hurt us,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: like if he catches us in this game, the appisode
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: lays a complete dump. Honestly, people, that does happen, Like
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: this guy isn't the top five quarterback of football, but
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Arthur is really doing this offense where it's not predicated
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: on him. Like when they need to make these big
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: third down players, he does it, but they aren't asking
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: it that much because they can run the ball. There's
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: so many third and short options. Again, it's just a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: beautiful thing watching it go. A coach coming and scheming
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: offense around the players and the team. He doesn't care
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: about his own scheme. He schemed around the offense on
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the team. That's what you're seeing in this Atlanta team.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: All right, Uh, I do want to talk about the Lions. Um,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: there's two more games. I want to talk about. The
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Bears went from plus eight two plus seven and a half. Um,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I can't believe. Let me just say this, we like
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: the Bears of plus eight. I don't think we're putting
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the Bears of plus eight in our contest. The other day,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: someone texted to me or you know, tag me on
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Twitter and showed how Bill Belichick could basically gone on
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: for eight minutes about how good the Bears are. That's
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: like the Bears that's terrible. That just means it really
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: sees how bad they truly are, because he never does that.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Bill No. So, as a Bears fan, I know that
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: we're kind of funny, you know, but we're on the
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Bears plus eight. You might get lucky. Mac Jones might
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: come back for you. Yeah, you know, it's all they
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: cleared him. I don't. I don't know that would happen.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is Baby's Appy's team until Baby's Appy,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: you know, can't do it anymore. Bailey Zappy unctually has
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: like an absolute meltdown of the game. You gotta gotta
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: le him keep playing exactly Lions plus seven. I guess
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: my feeling on this is the lines keep games close
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: if they're fully healthy, especially at mon Ross st. Brown,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: who I expect to be fully healthy in this game.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys offensive line is dreadful. I don't know that
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: it's that much of an upgrade getting Dak Prescott back
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: right now. I'm not saying I think Cooper Rush should
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: be replacing Dak Prescott, but coming back after a long
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: laugh with the thumb injury and a bad offensive line,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I just feel like this is a backdoor game. Yeah again,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: I said we're gonna take it, just don't be surprised
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: when we're dead wrong where It's like, I get it,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: these pros, they're not gonna get everything right. But it
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: was just interesting they're all taking that position where it
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: just made me rethink where it's like I looked at
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: this is another easy bet, like the same way I've
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: kind of felt the Landing where it's like you just
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: have an inflated line based on public perception. Where again
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be I no surprise of cowboys. Somehow defense
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: completely shuts down Detroit like the Patriots did and they
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: get no points. But if Swift does come back, I mean,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: we have a great number on a Detroit team that
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: we'll be able to move the ball. Like again, that
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: guy is such a difference maker. So um to me,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we're having the contest, but Swift
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: is back on Sunday and we're catching seven a half,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: we might end up switch it in because that's just
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: a good number on a team that, again their predicated
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: on their talented players around them. Um, we've seen golf
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: do well to Indoors, right, We've seen the difference this year.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Like him, Indoors, they're always in these games, especially at
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: this big of a number. They tend to hang in
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: these games. I just the same thing I said to
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: the other pros. I talked to balls, the balls on
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: you to be bet and Deck coming off an injury,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: a hand injury coming in and this is his first
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: game back. Um again feels like he's rushing back. He
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: should just be should he should just waited till after
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: their bye week. But again he just he saw another
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: man exceeding in his job. He just wanted it back.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: So I'm with each I think we're getting a good number.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: It's just it's just like last week. They're certain games.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: I got a pause on UM this week. The two
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: this this is one of the Another one is the
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Colts game. Um, I just knew a new Pros
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: are gonna be on Tennessee. But I knew real big
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: money was gonna come in the Colts. And what happened
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: this week? Big money came in the Colts. But it's
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: been kind of split. Um. Another game that I don't
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: think we're end up having in the contest, but just
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: a result I can't wait to see because it kind
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: of feels like that's the fight for the division right there.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: The cold Tennessee game. I don't know if you've had
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: opinion on that one, Chad, but I didn't really know
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: what to do with it on Tuesday, because at first glance,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I was all in on Tennessee. Um, still kind of
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: lost in the weeds here on what to do with
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, I mean, I think you played Tennessee
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: because it's a divisional matchup and they're less than a
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: less than a field goal favorite at home. But I
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: got coming off and coming off of by yeah, I got.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: I got no time for this game. I think Mike
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Rabel is a better coach than Frank Raich. I don't
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: know what's happening with Jonathan Taylor. The Colts defense has
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: been pretty good. Um, I don't even want this game
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: to appear on red Zone. We gotta talk Jets. People
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: want to talk Jets Denver. When we talked to the
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: shows two and a half or maybe two, and now
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I went down to a pick and it's back up
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the plus one Denver Broo. Yeah, so we liked the Jets.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, we liked the Jet at plus two.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: I think I probably still favored the Jets. You know,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is claiming he has Wolverine blood, and that
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean he's playing. It just means he has Wolverine Blood.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: The Broncos are one of those teams where you talk
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: about the Giants, right, Let's say the Giants they're getting lucky,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: and you can say they have good coaching and that
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: helps fuel and instill belief, and that helps fuel luck.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: I think the Broncos had bad coaching. I think that
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: if Russell Wilson does play, he doesn't quite know what
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: to do in that offense. Yet. Um, their defense is outstanding,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: and I think Zack Wilson is a terrible quarterback, truly terrible.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: And this Jets team is also beating bad teams in
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: dramatic ways. That is, you know, they beat the Packers,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: they beat the Dolphins, although that game was too close. Um,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: and they beat the Browns and Jacobe Brossett kind of
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: blew up and turned back into a pumpy. So I
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: have qualifiers and liking the Jets, but I think I
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: still like the Jets here because I think the Broncos
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: are just so bad. Yeah, and again, the Zack wasn't thing.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: I have to wait still, like I always give, I
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: give guys the benefit of data, give him a couple
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: of years. Again, rarely doesn't flip, but a few times
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: it does can be insane. Like Josh Allen, if you
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: go back and look at his stats through two years,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: you you probably would have cut him from your team.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: You just look absolutely lost. We've seen how that panned down,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: so Zach Wilson, Yeah, it's it's not good right now.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: But the beat mean Chad talked about making here was
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: simply because the Jets defense, this is a good matchup.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: We talked about the under as well. It's one of
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: my favorite under bets. I bet early in the week.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: It's down in most books. The thirty eight now down
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: from thirty and a half, down the thirty nine, thirty
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: eight and a half now down to thirty eight. I
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: still think he's gonna play like what you just talked about.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: He's a psycho saying he's got wolverine blood, But I
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: mean he's a competitor, like I thought he should arrest it.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Last week, after he'd gotten surgery on his shoulder, he
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: went out there and played. He threw thirteen yards in
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the second half. I know they're blaming his handstring on
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: part of that. It feels all mental like it feels
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: like the guy he's missing. It's there's nothing new with
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: his body. There wide open in front of him. He's
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: just not seeing him. Whatever it is. He's just locking
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: in on people. So it's the public dog of the week.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Like everyone in their grandmas will be bet in the Jets.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: The Jets are the hottest team. I mean the Northeast here.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: All the New York books, all the Jersey books, all
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: the PA books as well, they're just gonna be taking
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: tons and tons of Jets funny, So I know I'm
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: on the public side here. Maybe I'll just tease them. Now,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: you can tease them up to seven. Um, that's a
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: pretty great number to have against the Broncos. Teams that
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: kick can't blow teams out, especially a good defense like
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: the Jets. But we could be stepping in a chab.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I just again, think it comes to Sunday. We're getting
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: a plus one and a half, plus two and a half,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: and we know it's Russ gonna play through an injury.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're probably end up having the Jets.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: And that's just why I want to bring that game
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: up before he moved on. Totally got it. By the way,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: he didn't have surgery on his shoulder. He had an
• 36:47
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• 39:09
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. We are going. I know there's people listening
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: live on AMP. They are asking about uh Thursday night
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: football picks. We will get to that. Give us a
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: minute first, Simon, you're a head and Scooch Roulette our
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: head to head battle. You get to go first. When
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: play Scots Rolette. Oh God, trying not to double dip.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I'm I might have to you this week. You want
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Washington so badly, I know you do do. It's just
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: a really good number. But I'm trying to be good
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: and not double dip because it stirved me well these
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. Give me Seattle. Oh you that's
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: your eye. That's what I wanted, all right, Seattle. Damn it?
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: What is it? Is it a five and half? You're
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: taking it and half? Gosh, darn darn all right. Uh, well,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I don't want to double dipper on Houston and Atlanta.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: We've been double dipping, yeah, but I don't want to.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I wanna be you know, Atlanta's out, Washington's out forts
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: are out. All right, you know what, Here we go,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: you know what, I know, We're not going to do
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: it in the contest. Give me the goddamn lines. Wow,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I'm biting thee Caps survivor. I think it's still Patriots
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: or Bucks. Yeah, no, an other choices and the fact
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: that it now it's definitely PJ being the quarterback for Carolina. Again,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: look at the Buck schedule. Do the same thing to
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: the Patriots and ask yourself when you're gonna take them again.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: So that's how me, Chad, we've gotten lucky, but a
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: couple of our pictures, yere, I've done it that way. Um.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Here we are on week seven, still somehow alive. It
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: feels like an easy week. Those are usually the dangerous ones.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: But I can't see Patriots losing at home to this
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Bears team, and I just can't see the Bucks dropping
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: another game like this week has to be hell for
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: that page that Buccaneers team with Tom Breen at the Holme.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: So yeah, like both um up to the fans of
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: picking shoes, I would say which way I'm leaning the
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: highest right now would be the Patriots just because their
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: division so hard. I just don't see us taking them
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: against the Jets Miami. I've seen that the Bills where
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: there's other opportunities to take this Bucks team down the road,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: So I would say it's more likely we take the
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Patriots alright, money line round Robin, I'm gonna say the
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: teams I think that we're gonna put in it ready,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna put in realized. People said, we went three
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: and two lest week, Let's go Falcons. We're gonna put
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: in there. Seattle Ye, Niners yeah, um, Washington yeah uh?
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: And then who else? No, there's a bunch of different
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: avenues we could go here, um like every orifice and
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: my body. We already said Houston right in, say Houston,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: I said, Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington. Houston jumps out just
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: because again, who's the Vegas to be catching that many points?
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Like we have to take the value on that one.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: And then just because of injury report and no one
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: else had doing it, Like I know, no one else
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: is doing this. Cleveland's money line against a team in
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Baltimore that has just melted against so many teams in
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: this fourth quarter, like it just jumped out. So that's terrible.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Let's put Houston in, all right, he'st Houston over the Browns.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: That's fair, right, money line, Ron Robin Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston. Uh.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Let's give people who are listening live, um a a
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: last minute Thursday night football pick. I know what you think,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: and I gotta tell you it's different than what I
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: think you like Cardinals tonight. I think I like the Cardinals.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, it can't fault you for it. Um. I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: think DeAndre Hopkins is a big deal. I think him
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: coming back is a really big deal. It changes it
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: literally else the field. Not literally that was stupid, but
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: it tilts the field the Cardinals in a way that
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: just changes the game plan. I like the Cardinals. Short
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: home dog, I mean short home favorite Thursday night. Uh,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that tends to be to play anyways, It's gonna be
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: an ugly game. So give me the Cardinals and I'll
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: just take the better team. List Saints are the better team.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: I'll just take them blindly here, and I'm happy to
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: lose money on it. All the numbers backup Chad. Betting
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: the favorites, especially short home favorites, has been very profitable
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: on Thursday nights. Again, just a blindly beat thing. If
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: you just want to just battle the trends, I think
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: you're right with Chad here. If you just want to
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: go based off the numbers, I think the best play
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: for me will be the first half. I'll just take
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: the Saints team that should be more compaired. The obviously
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: have been better than the Cardinals in the first half
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: and earlier this season. Another sneaky play I like, just
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: a long shot play Taysom Hill. Um, he might get
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of touches at quarterback this week. Just got
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: done has a back issue, so I see them subbing now.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: I read a couple of beat writers talking about him
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: getting way more touches week. Um, Taysom Hill. Cardinal's run
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: defense is bad. So at plus one ninety anytime touchdown
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, That to me has value on a guy
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: that could be the number one QB midway through the
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: second quarter and Andy don't takes one bad hit, they're
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: gonna yank them. They said they're not gonna mess around it.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: He wants to play, They're gonna let him play. They're
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: not gonna riscue him injuring himself for the whole season.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: So sneaky played for me, be Taysom Hill anytime touchdown. Yeah,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: because you can totally predict when a guy is going
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: to get a bad hit and whether or not it's
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: gonna be season ending in the game of football. Um,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: it's a really good planning there. All right, we've done
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: it all Simon, We've narrowed down our five. Right now,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: if we had to do it today, it would be Jags, Washington,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Houston Niners, and then we'd probably debate Seattle and Atlanta.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Uh the money line around Robin Reminder Atlanta, Seattle, Niners,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: Washington Houston, Scoot Roulette. You're on Seattle, I'm on the Lions.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Are big balls better the week get and a plus six.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: I gotta remind people listen to Buckets the podcast. Our
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: NBA podcast launched daily this week with Matt Moore and
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: a rotating all star cast of betting analysts. You want
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: to bet the NBA, you gotta do it every day.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: You gotta listen to Buckets every single day. Don't forget.
• 45:19
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• 45:21
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• 45:27
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• 45:31
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• 45:33
  Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman.
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