Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The United States Is Buying Stocks - What This Means for Your 401k + Stock Market News 20 October 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The United States Is Buying Stocks - What This Means for Your 401k + Stock Market News 20 October 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Your 401k and retirement accounts are about to be affected by something most Americans have no idea has happened.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: The US government has quietly started taking ownership stakes in American companies.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Not just any companies, Intel, the company that makes our microchips, rare earth mining companies, lithium producers, even US steel.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And here is what's at stake.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: This could either be the smartest move to protect American wealth in decades, or it could just fundamentally change how capitalism works in the US and not in a good way.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of this video, you will know exactly what's happening, why it matters to your portfolio, and the three specific moves you need to consider making right now.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Felix Preen, I'm an ex-investor and banker who's seen how Wall Street really works.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also the founder of the GOAT Academy, where we have over 20,000 students learning to navigate these markets, and the co-founder of TradeVision, where we give you access to the best news ever.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: No noise, just the news you actually want to see.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm dedicating my retirement to teaching ordinary investors, which is what I used to be, how the market actually works.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And trust me, the rules are changing right now.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't some conspiracy theory.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is not a doom and gloom video.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: This is documented policy that's already happened.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: And by the time most investors figure it out, it'll be too late to position themselves properly.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: The government's new investment portfolio.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let me show you exactly what the US government now owns.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Intel.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: 9.9% ownership stake.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, we covered this on August 15th.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: And if you'd take an action back then, well, you'd be quite happy right now.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: But the government didn't just give Intel money from the CHIPS Act, they converted that funding into equity, actual share ownership.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, they have the option to buy more shares if Intel hits certain production targets.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Second, we have MP materials.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: The US government's taking a 15% stake.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we talked about this in April, 28th of April to be precise.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: If you bought MP materials back then, you would have made a lot of money and be sending me Christmas cards.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is literally the only rare earth mining company in America.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And the Department of Defense used convertible preferred stocks.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: So the government gets influence over pricing and export rules and much, much.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have Lithium Americas, where they're taking up to 10% by some sort of stock warrant type thing, which is there's also a$2.3 billion loan from the Department of Energy.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: And they've added a clause giving the government the right to buy up to 10% of the company.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: So this is one of the biggest lithium deposits in North America, and the government's got its finger in that pie.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have US steel.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: When a Japanese company wanted to buy US steel, the White House said, only if we get a golden share.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: This golden share gives the US government veto power over major corporate decisions like plant closures, foreign sales, executive appointments.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: The government can block.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now, maybe you think this is like nationalization from the 1980s.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it sort of is, but it's smarter and it's a lot more subtle.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: They're using the CHIPS Act to convert funding into shares.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: They're using the Defense Production Act, they're using the Department of Energy loan guarantees, and they're using regulatory approvals as leverage instead of passing a new law that would get everybody's attention.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: So they're using existing programs and they're just changing the terms.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Money that used to be grants, well, now it's by giving away shares.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Loans that used to be simple, now they come with stock warrants.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: So why the heck does this happen?
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Here is the uncomfortable truth that Washington finally figured out.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Free markets cannot beat command economies in certain strategic industries.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Let me give you a concrete example that'll blow your mind.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Right now you can buy an electric vehicle in other markets with over 400 miles of range, hypercar level performance, luxury that would cost six figures in America, and you can buy those for$30,000 in other countries.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: If these cars came to America, Tesla would be in serious trouble.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Ford and GM, they couldn't compete.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Is it because the US doesn't have the same technology?
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's because if the US made these, they'd cost a lot more money.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: So how does this work?
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, when you have a government that subsidizes manufacturing costs, controls the supply chain from mining to assembly, and uses the government's power to guarantee market access, well, it's very hard for the free market to compete.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: So here are the numbers that keep the Pentagon officials up at night.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: 90% of rare earth production is controlled by one country, 70% of lithium refining capacity is controlled by one country, 80% of solar panel manufacturing is made by one country, not the US.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: And these aren't just commodities, these are the building blocks of every smartphone, every electric vehicle, every advanced weapon system, every solar panel, every wind turbine, and the US doesn't control them.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the world is splitting into two economic spheres.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: You've got the dollar-based Western system, and then you've got an alternative system being built by the competitors out there.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Both sides are racingly controlled the same thing: energy, microchips, critical minerals, and internet infrastructure.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Whoever controls those, they control the future.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: So the US government looked at this and they realized you can't really win this by using the free market rules because your competitors aren't.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: So they're changing the rules.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, speaking of changing the rules, if you want to learn how Wall Street is adapting to this, how Wall Street rules of buying and selling affected are affected by this, then I would say to you, learn just one skill.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: And that one skill would be when to sell.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Because that's actually where most people screw up.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of people buy good stocks, but they screw up the selling.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: They sell too early for small profit, or they sell far too late and they let all their profits disappear.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to put a stop to that, you know, I think it's the lowest hanging fruit there is out there for any retail investor, then I will teach you that.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Not in this video, because it would make it like an hour long, and that would be silly.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but we're gonna do a live training on Tuesday, 9 p.m.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern time at pelixfriends.org slash training.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll be live.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: You can ask me questions, we'll do a monster QA, and I'll literally give you the same Wall Street rules for selling that I learned from my mentors.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds good?
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: What's the catch?
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: It actually isn't one.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's free.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: phoenixfriends.org slash training.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: But you gotta show up.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, it doesn't work.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna send you a replay.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: If you can't show up, it isn't gonna go in anyway.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a funny situation here where the US, the champion of the free market, is now, well, it's sort of unfair competition, isn't it?
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: The government owns stuff, is it market manipulation?
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Is it state capitalism?
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Isn't it dangerous for global trade?
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this doesn't really matter.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: What matters is how it changes everything, because incentives shift, because companies start optimizing for government favor, not necessarily customer satisfaction.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: Political connections become more valuable than innovation, and lobbying budgets will grow.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: RD budgets might shrink.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: So the problem the government has, and this is why I'm not usually a huge fan of this, but we just have to accept that this is the reality.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: The government decides which company gets funding, the government decides which company is meant to be a winner, gets regularly approval, and which ones get protected from competition.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's called rent-seeking behavior in economics, when companies exist to stay in favor with the state rather than serve customers.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this isn't all bad news because we have actually seen this play out quite nicely.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: There are success stories.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: There is Norway, which is a very oil-rich country.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Norway has a$1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: They own literally 1.5% of all listed stocks in the world.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now they have very good governments, they have pretty transparent rules, and it actually works very well.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then you have other countries that have not managed it quite as well.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm sorry to my Malaysian friends.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm in Malaysia right now as I'm recording this.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: But Malaysia had great ambitions.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: Malaysia has quite a bit of oil.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: They thought let's do the same thing, but they had a massive corruption scandal.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: Billions of dollars were stolen.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Or you have Turkey created also a wealth fund, but it actually just turned out to be a parallel budget with no oversight, hand-picked crannies on the boards, or you have Venezuela, where the funds got exhausted through mismanagement and corruption.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the difference?
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: The difference is really a question of oversight.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: Norway has rules, independent management and public accountability.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: The others, well, not so much.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: So which path is the US going to take?
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what concerns me a little bit is that what's created, what's creating this US Sovereign Wealth Fund is an executive order.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that executive order is about as vague as you could possibly write one.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure it's intentional, but there is no specific oversight mechanism.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: There's minimal details on the strategy, and there is maximum presidential discretion.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: No independent board structure, nothing.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we're promised more details on the actual plan, but until then, it's uh it's a bit vague.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, of course, the way this is being sold to you, and we want to get back to how we actually invest in just a second, but this is an important side point.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: They're telling you it's gonna create millions of jobs, but it won't.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a political statement, it's just just facts, right?
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: These are what kind of businesses are they?
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Semiconductors, lithium refining, AI infrastructure.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: They're high-tech jobs, highly automated industries.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: You don't need a lot of people.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: The factories, well, guess what?
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: They'll be f filled with robotics engineers, some PhDs, right?
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um, material science PhDs and that sort of thing.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: There won't be assembly line workers in there.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you might see a little bit of that, you know, some ceremonies and a couple of people get employed.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: But this is going to be an automated, very high-skilled and then mostly robots kind of a business.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: So this isn't about jobs.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: This is about control.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, before you jump into these companies, you need to understand what the risk is.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: Political favoritism, innovation might slow down, the market will get distorted, not necessarily the best wins, it's whoever's got the most government connection and ownership wins.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: And, well, your tax dollars, maybe you don't care about them that much anymore, because obviously they've all been squandered anyway for decades.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, there are actually some really, really good opportunities in this.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: And we've been making money on some of these stocks for a while, as you can you can see, you've been watching me for a while.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: And one is as an investor, you buy one of these companies, something like an MP Materials was an insanely volatile company or these lithium companies.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: And now they're government-backed.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: They have like a price guarantee.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, there was a little bit of a wobble as I'm recording this.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: There was a cobalt contract that got cancelled.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to get sort of retendered.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: It was more like a process issue rather than actual lack of government backing.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, if you have a company with government ownership stakes, it's a safety net, right?
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: The government has invested interest in their success.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: They're less likely to allow it to fail.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: So for conservative investors, this could mean lower risk in certain positions.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then the second thing, well, what do I always say?
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: I always say follow the money.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: Wall Street will follow government investment signals.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: When the government takes a stake in a sector, institutional money floods in.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: We saw this this year with every company that we're talking about here.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: And it gives us some beautiful sector rotation plays, which is always what I say, follow the money.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: You know, semiconductors, critical manufacturing, rare earth mining, lithium and steel, and the whole AI infrastructure and cybersecurity thing.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's just kind of an obvious playbook.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: The government is basically saying to you, we want these guys to succeed.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: They will succeed, we'll make sure of it, and therefore it's kind of a lower risk for investors.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't mean there isn't any risk.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: There is obviously always risk.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: But there will also be policy swings.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: So the policy, government policy will create a lot of ups and downs.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: And think about this: this government isn't going to be in power forever.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: There'll be a government after that, whoever that might be.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: And that might therefore put a lot of these now semi-government-owned companies at risk.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: But they could also create nice discounted entry levels for you dip buying degenerates out there.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So what's your action plan?
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Eight steps on the screen here.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: You might want to take a screenshot of that.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to zoom in for them for you on these.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, did I mention there is a full research download workbook that comes with this at feelixschwens.org slash USA.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: I probably should have mentioned that earlier.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: But um, yeah, do download that because then you're going to get everything and you might want to review this again because I know we're covering a lot of stuff here.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: So what sectors are we are we looking at right now?
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: Look, if you want to be defensive, you've got to look at things like healthcare, utilities, consumer staples, right?
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: If you're just looking at, I just want to be in the best of the best, just quality, quality, quality.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you might just want to buy just Vu or something like that, or pick some of the large cat established companies.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that's probably right for most people.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: Keep some cash on the sidelines so you always have an opportunity to get into something.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, also have some emergency funds.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I definitely want you to avoid the private market trap.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: So they're going to try and lure some of your 401ks into private equity and into like these things that are not liquid.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Don't do it because you don't know what the heck it is about.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's insanely risky, and they're not liquid.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: So you can't just sell them anytime, and that's going to be a problem for most people.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: And you're going to want to keep a little bit of an eye on what the government's doing.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think this May date here is nonsense, but the sovereign wealth plan fund plans, like what are they investing in?
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um, make sure you understand that.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: One way to do that is we will update you with all the key stuff if you literally just subscribe to TradeVision and then and you get all these beautiful news alerts that come up on your phone only for the stocks you select, by the way.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: So we can bombard you with junk you don't need to know.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: Don't give you all the political bollocks.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: We just tell you these are the news, very likely to move your stocks.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: So you just make a list of the stocks you want to follow, and then you get the news on that, and that's very valuable.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's at FelixFrans.org slash trade mission, links down below there.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, above everything, always focus a little bit on tax efficiency first.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: So you want to max out your your 401ks up to the employer match.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: You might want to look at Roth IRAs after that, which I think is a very, very, very powerful thing to do, especially if you're more of an active investor.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: And focus on positioning.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: Like that's ultimately, you know, for an open position, I would generally never make it more than 5% in size.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Don't be too heavily in one sector.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's the biggest mistake I probably see.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: Never borrow money, never use leverage.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: And diversify in a smart way, and of course have a longer-term plan.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: Like, what's your ultimate long-term goal?
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: And the opportunity here is tremendous because we keep getting these like big drops that are government orchestrated, like the tariff drop.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: We have that panic selling in mid-year.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so for October, it looks like you know, a tremendous month.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the smart people, the wrong word, actually, the trained people, the skilled people.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: All about smart, by the way.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: We can be dumb as a plank of wood, and you could still be a great investor, um, which probably explains my success.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: You want to buy quality assets when they're down, whereas what most people do is they panic and they sell at the bottom.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: And we can fix that for you literally, if you join me Tuesday, Felix Frenzel.org slash training, join me for the live thing there.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: But you gotta understand what's going on out there.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: This is real.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: The government is buying these companies.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna buy a lot more companies.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's a strategic move.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: It is a fundamental shift in how US capitalism works.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: So don't ignore it, don't panic, position yourself to win, but focus on the quality companies and be ready for some fairly significant ups and downs.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, again, position sizing here is key to actually really, really benefit from this.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: So if you got some value out of this, you want to keep following this narrative, which is honestly the biggest change in the way the US economy works and the US stock market works, then you know what to do.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: Subscribe to the channel, download the research at phoenixfriends.org slash USA.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: The link is also down below.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: And just improve your skills.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: Like all the noise, all the activity out there from governments are only useful if you know how to act, if you know how to react.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: And we can actually act in advance of these things because the money of Wall Street usually shows us the path before anything actually happens.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: You've got some value out of this, you know what to do.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: All the best.