Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 34 - 5/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 34 - 5/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 34 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday? We are midway through our work
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week, guys. More importantly, happy May 1st,
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the beginning of a new month here.
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And it's also my birthday. That's right, I am now 37 years
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old. I can't believe it.
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Boy, does time fly. I feel like just yesterday I was
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a 17 year old playing baseball with my buddies in high school
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and getting ready to go to college.
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Man, does time fly, but I'm getting quite a few DMS tweets
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and always it's interesting too. You wake up and you get a lot of
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texts from family, from friends. So I'm really honored and
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thankful to take one more trip around the sun with you guys.
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Which means we have another year of sports betting ahead of us.
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But either way, looking toward another big night here tonight,
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I have a six pack for you, including four Major League
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Baseball bets, including a bunch of steam.
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The steam was popping left and right for me today.
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A lot of $0.10 or more moves we can get down on.
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Also, I have an NBA total. It is a very low number and I'm
1:32
thinking it's low for a reason. So we'll get to that on the
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second-half of the pod and then finish up the pod with an NHL
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player prop. One team tonight that is facing
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elimination and there's one player here that we're going to
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look toward over 2 1/2 shots on goal and he's been going over
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this number pretty much every game this during the series.
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So six pack, four MLB, one NBA total, and one NHL player prop.
1:53
Now looking back toward last night, a nice little bounce back
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guys. We had a winning night 4 and 2 +
1:58
0.56 units and it was really paced by a great night in Major
2:02
League Baseball 4 and OA clean sweep.
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We actually had a couple breaks that went our way.
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Padres came through for the team.
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The twins came through. Now the twins were dicey.
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They were down late, battled back against.
2:12
The White Sox had a late winner, but in particular the Phillies
2:16
coming up Bigley. They had a lead.
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They blew it. Then they came back in the 9th
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inning and 8th and 9th inning. Scored a few runs to catch that
2:22
one but the big one last night maybe this is a little bit of, I
2:26
don't know, birthday mojo birthday.
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Good luck with the Astros. We were talking about how fishy
2:31
that line was yesterday between the Astros and the Guardians,
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because the Guardians are a great team, 19 and 9.
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Houston, even though they won, you know, the World Series here
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recently and been a great team for the last, I don't know, 5-6,
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seven years. They're off to a terrible start,
2:45
9 and 19. Yet it opened at Houston Round
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-135, got steamed up all the way to round -175, and at one point
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I said, hey, we're looking good. Houston hit a couple home runs.
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They're up 8:00 to 3:00 and then their bullpen completely
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imploded. It was an 8 to 8 game.
3:01
Then they were down 9 to 8 in extra innings.
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I think it was extra innings. And then believe it or not, we
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got lucky because Victor Carratini.
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Victor Carratini, We owe him a beer because Carratini was a
3:12
pinch hitter, I believe in the bottom of the 10th inning, Man
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on 2 outs, I'm saying, hey, here we go again.
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Houston's going to lose this one.
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And what does Carratini do? Hits a line drive Homer that
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barely went above the wall in right field.
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So walk off dinger for Karatini to give us a four and O clean,
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sweeping MLB, which is a great night in Major League Baseball.
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Now the losers. Both very frustrating because
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the Bruins come on. Bruins my team, I'm holding a
3:37
series ticket on them. Everything's lined up perfectly
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for the bees. No Austin Matthews.
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Backup goaltender. Bruins at home, close out the
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series. What do they do?
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They don't show up. Jeremy swimming was great.
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No one else played. They were slow, they were
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jittery, They seemed very tight. They lose 2 to one in overtime,
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but was annoying about that. One is not just that they lost,
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but it's that we got great closing line value.
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And I think that's what makes sports betting really
4:01
frustrating is when you do your part as a sports better,
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identifying the sharp side and getting a good number, beating a
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closing line and then team doesn't come through for you.
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Like I can take a, you know, an error even though I I really
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can't take it. But I can understand an error or
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you know, a blowout that's going to happen every now and again.
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But when you beat the closing line by, I don't know, $0.20, I
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mean we were talking about the Bruins yesterday, -155, they
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closed like -175 -, 180. So great CLV.
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But of course the Bruins do what they always do when they let me
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down when they have a close out opportunity here.
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So that one hurt with the bees and the other one that was
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frustrating was Darius Garland under 9 1/2 assists and rebounds
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because he was sitting at 9 assists and rebounds with about
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40 seconds left in the game. And I'm saying hey, we might we
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might sneak out, rob the bank and not get caught and get that
4:51
Garland under 9 1/2. Then what happens?
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40 seconds left in the game. He drives to the lane dumps it
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off to I think it was Mobley. Mobley dunks it.
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Boom. That was the assist that made it
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a combined 10 assists and rebound.
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So we lost our under 9 1/2. But either way, guys, I will
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take a winning night any day of the week 4 and 2 + 0.56 units,
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again led by a great Major League Baseball night 4:00.
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And also, let's see if we can keep it rolling on episode 34,
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the 37th birthday edition of your host here of the All
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Systems Gopod. So let's dive right in.
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No time to waste. And I want to get right back to
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Major League Baseball. Who loves betting.
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MLBI tell you MLB is so Jekyll and Hyde sometimes, You know,
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it's such a long season. I always try to stress this
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before the season starts. You know, you can never get too
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high or too low, you know, because you could have a
5:38
terrible month followed by a great month or a great month
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followed by a terrible month. It's just such a long year that
5:44
there's a lot of ebbs and flows, a lot of ups and downs.
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But it's good to see that we're kind of kind of our finger on
5:50
the pulse here. Major League Baseball, see if we
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can get a few more winners here today.
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So first one on the board for me.
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It's an early game, 4:00 here today, four O 7:00 PM Eastern
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Time. Now I wrote about this one for
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vson.com. Hopefully you saw my write up.
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I put it out on Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
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But this is great because the line keeps going toward the
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Phillies. But it's not great if you
6:10
haven't bet it yet. So I'm still riding Phillies
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here today against the Angels. Let's set the stage, I'll give
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you the the match up, the handicap, and then I'll tell you
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why it's a good thing this line's moving toward the
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Phillies. But not great.
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Again, if you haven't gotten gotten down yet.
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But anyway, this is the rubber match of a three-game
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interleague series. The Angels 11 and 19.
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They won the opener six to five as a + 120 home dog.
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Meanwhile, the Phillies who are 20 and 11, they bounced back
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last night for us with a big seven to five, come from behind.
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Win taking care of business as a -, 170 Rd. favorite.
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Now pitching match up here really looks like it favors
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Philly. That's a big part of the reason
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why I like Philly. Today they're going with the ace
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righty. Zach Wheeler two and three 1.93
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ERA. He's been great against Patrick
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Sandoval a lefty. I'll tell you why it's important
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here. It's a southpaw one and four
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6.33 ERA. What do we see across the market
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here? Well, make it very easy on you.
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non-stop. Steam locomotive steam 22 toward
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Philly. Philly open this game as low as
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like -165. Now when I wrote about this game
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for beeson.com, Philly was all the way up to -200.
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So I jumped on Philly at -200 and there's one shop at the time
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that was like -195. S again, have multiple outs,
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Make sure you can get the best price because it can make up
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over the long haul. May not seem like a big deal
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-200 versus -195 today, but if you, you know, routinely save
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$0.05 or get a better price on all the bets we're going to make
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throughout the MLB season, that really adds up to a lot of units
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at the end of the year. But anyway, at the time, that
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big steam toward Phillies -165 to -200 also had someone reach
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out to me about how to spot steam.
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Just remember, Steam is when you have an overload of sharp action
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all across the marketplace on one side in which you see a big
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jump in the price toward one team.
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Now the important thing here is, you know, sometimes it's injury
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related. I don't know if that's pure
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steam. To me, Steam is when you just
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have big smart money coming down that isn't, you know, due to an
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injury. Because if there is an injury,
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oddsmakers usually like a quarterback is out in the NFL.
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You know you could see a team get steamed, you know, -3, 1/2,
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I don't know to -7 if the opposing quarterbacks out.
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But is that really steam or is that just an adjustment by the
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books because of an injury? To me, steam is when no injuries
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are taking place and you just have an overload of smart money
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across the market from wise guys, syndicates.
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Syndicates are basically a group of wise guys who work together
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to pool their resources and bet big amounts down on games.
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But anyway, my angle here and what I wanted to mention is just
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in order to spot Steam. Very simple.
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Look at the opener, the opening number, and then look at the
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current number side by side on your live odds page.
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And if you see $0.10 or more of movement one way or the other,
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consider that Steam. Anything below 10 doesn't really
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get me, you know, interested. It's 10 or more.
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That tells me that a lot of big money came in to move that
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number. So I just wanted to mention that
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Steam $0.10 or more. But Philly getting around 90% of
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bets, 95% of the money, so tells us that both Pro and Joe money
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here is on the Phillies. Now Phillies have the better
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bats. 13256 versus 241. Remember, Mike Trout's been out
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here for a while. I think he's got a torn meniscus
9:13
in his knee. Also better pitching for the
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Phillies. 3.44 ERA versus 5 point O eight.
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Couple system matches on Phillies.
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Rd. favorites. They're 95 and 6460% this year
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with a 6% ROI. Interleague favorites.
9:28
Interleague favorites. Lack of familiarity benefiting
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the better team who's expected to win will also.
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In particular, interleague favorites off a win would match
9:35
you with Philly. They're 37 and 2263% this year
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with a 6% ROI. Then of course we have some
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correlative betting favorite low total, big favorite, low total
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because this is a now a above more than -200 favorite with a
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total of just eight. So remember low totals are less
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than 8 1/2. High totals are more than 8 1/2.
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But anyway, also looking at in particular the Phillies against
10:00
lefties. I I hinted at this, but Patrick
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Sandoval, the southpaw on the bump for the Angels.
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The Phillies are hitting 271 against lefties this year.
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That's the 6th best batting average against southpaws.
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So hopefully the bats of Philly can get to Sandoval today.
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Philly also ten and five on the road.
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Angels just 4 and 10 and home. So again, hopefully you jumped
10:19
on this one a little bit earlier.
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Hope. Hopefully I've taught you enough
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to notice this sharp, sharp movement and hopefully get down
10:25
before it moves. But I am on Philly -200.
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If you're playing it now, it's around -220.
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And always remember bet Tris, first bet to win.
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Let's go, Phillies. Let's see if they can get a win
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for us to start our day. Keep on cruising.
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This one is a big one. Tonight, the Giants and my
10:40
Boston Red Sox. Now this is something
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interesting happening in this game.
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I'll get to that in a second. But first, let's set the stage.
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The Red Sox, who I can't believe it, keep winning even though
10:50
they got injuries and they're putting out guys you never heard
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of. Something's going going well
10:54
with the Red Sox which is a bit of a surprise cause going into
10:56
the year, all you could hear from Boston fans 'cause I'm in
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Boston is how much we hate John Henry and he won't spend money.
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Well, he's not spending money and the team's winning so I
11:06
guess Henry's getting the last laugh.
11:08
But anyway, Red Sox 17 and 13 on the year.
11:11
They won the opener against the G men 4.
11:13
Nothing last night as a + 120 home dog.
11:15
Tonight the Giants are going with the Giants are 14 and 16 on
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the year. They're likely to go with Dalton
11:22
Jeffries. He is a righty O and 1 ERA of
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22.5. He only pitched one game and he
11:27
got lit up. Red Sox going with cutter
11:29
Crawford one and one 1.35 ERA now big steam move toward
11:34
Boston. The Red Sox open in this game
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open around to pick them. It was basically -110 both
11:39
sides. Now we're seeing the Red Sox
11:41
gets teamed up to -130. So big $0.20 team in favor of
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Boston. 85% bets, 93% Money tells us heavy combination of
11:50
both pro and Joe Money on the Red Sox.
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But here's the important thing. I had a bunch of people reach
11:54
out to me and say, hey, you know, what's the deal with San
11:56
Fran in Boston? Like, my book isn't posting the
11:58
odds. Well, San Fran is doing this
12:01
annoying thing where I don't know if they've officially named
12:03
Jeffries as the starter, but I was looking on MLB.com.
12:06
I was doing some Twitter research, I was looking at the
12:09
beat reporters for the Giants, and they are all saying Jeffries
12:11
is going to be the guy. And maybe he won't be.
12:14
Maybe maybe they're going to start somewhere, someone else.
12:16
But here's kind of the one chance or situation to actually
12:20
bet action. Now, we talked about this on the
12:23
pod. I don't know a week ago, Two
12:24
weeks ago, action versus listed pitcher 9 times out of 10 or 99
12:29
times out of 100. You want to bet listed pitcher
12:31
so you protect yourself if a guy gets scratched.
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What I would do here is either bet Red Sox action or you can
12:37
just do listed pitcher Red Sox so you can do listed pitcher
12:40
both teams, or just one team. Now the important thing here is
12:43
with Cutter Crawford, who's been great again, ERA 1.35.
12:47
It doesn't matter to me so much who's starting for San Fran.
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It's that I want to bet on Boston.
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So if I bet Red Sox action at -130, it could be Jeffrey's or
12:56
someone else, doesn't matter, I'm locked into that Red Sox
12:58
-130. Or you can do Crawford just list
13:02
the picture at -130. Therefore, if he gets scratched,
13:05
then you're not locked into the bet.
13:07
But if you're asking yourself why can't I bet the San
13:09
Francisco Red Sox game, it's probably because your book is
13:12
holding off on putting out that that line because they want
13:15
confirmation on Jeffries as a starter.
13:17
So whether it's a book that's just giving you Red Sox -130 or
13:21
you bet them action, that's the play Red Sox at -130.
13:25
Again, big sharp steam in their favor.
13:26
Open that around to pick them. So lines gone just One Direction
13:30
in favor of Boston. Red Sox have the better bats
13:32
3250 versus 241 for the G men and much better bullpen.
13:37
That's big here. The Red Sox bullpen is 3.41 ERA
13:40
5.37 for San Francisco. Red Sox would have that
13:44
interleague favorite value. Lack of familiarity benefiting.
13:47
The better team was expected to win Same system match that we
13:50
just talked about with Philly That would be interleague fave
13:52
off a win. Those teams are 63 percent, 6%
13:55
ROI this year. Red Sox plus 37 and run
13:58
differential Giants -21. And over the last 10 games Red
14:03
Sox are playing well. They're seven and three.
14:04
They're hitting three O 1 as a team with a 2.35 ERA San Fran.
14:09
Over their last ten they're five and five, but they're only
14:11
hitting 231 with a 4.2 OERA. So again, find that book that's
14:16
offering the price here on Boston, whether it's action or
14:19
just listed with Cutter Crawford.
14:21
I'm going Red Sox tonight. Give me the Sox.
14:23
I bet Boston that -130. Next up for you.
14:28
Big steam on the Texas Rangers. Texas Rangers at home tonight
14:32
against the Washington Nationals and I'm going to go with the
14:35
Rangers in this one because the Rangers are getting hammered
14:37
here and I want to be on the side that's getting hammered.
14:41
So First off, let's look at some background here.
14:44
We did see last night the Texas Rangers had a 7 to one win over
14:48
the Washington Nationals to open this interleague series.
14:51
They cashed at at around a -, 165 home favorite.
14:54
If you look at the current records now we have the Texas
14:57
Rangers 16 and 14, which is, I don't know, couple games about
15:01
500. To me, it's more surprising at
15:03
the Nats have been so competitive, 14 and 15.
15:06
But for the pitching match up tonight, it looks like it favors
15:09
Washington. That's what's fishy here,
15:10
because Trevor Williams, who's going for Washington, the righty
15:14
2 and O 2.7, OERA looks pretty good on paper.
15:17
Andrew Haney is O and three, the lefty 6.26 ERA.
15:21
So you'd think, hey, you know, Williams has been better than
15:24
Haney. Might as well go Williams and
15:26
Washington as a dog, right? But I got to respect the market
15:29
on this one because there's massive movement toward the
15:31
Texas Rangers. The Rangers open this game as
15:34
low as a -, 150 home favorite. They even steamed up all the way
15:37
to -180. So a 30 cent steam move in favor
15:41
of the Rangers. Again, some shops are even as
15:43
high as -190. So one way movement all in favor
15:46
of Texas is reminds me a little bit of this kind of Phillies
15:49
line move. Where it's again, Steam to me is
15:51
important because it tells you smart money's gotten down hard,
15:54
but also you want steam with no buy back.
15:56
What? What?
15:56
What I mean by buy back is the team that gets steamed.
15:59
Usually the line comes back the other way because it's over.
16:01
It's like overreacted and moved so much when there's no over,
16:04
when there's no kind of buyback and it doesn't come back down
16:07
and it just keeps soaring. On the one hand, it's like, hey,
16:10
it's moved so much. Can I still bet it is there
16:11
still value? But I look at it the other way.
16:13
I say, hey, that's a good thing because it tells me that there's
16:15
no sharps disagreeing. They're all on one side.
16:18
But anyway, the Texas Rangers were going to bank on their
16:20
offense. They're hitting 250 this year
16:23
versus only 233 for Washington. Rangers have hit 37 or 34
16:28
homers, scored 139 runs. Only 27 homers, 118 runs for
16:32
Washington. And one thing I'll bank on are
16:36
two things here. Washington.
16:37
Even though they're going up against Andrew Haney, who hasn't
16:39
been good this year, they're actually 22nd in the league
16:41
against lefties. They're only hitting 218 against
16:44
lefties. Hopefully that, you know,
16:45
mitigates Haney not pitching very well thus far.
16:49
But then also much fresher Texas bullpen.
16:52
John Gray last night went eight innings, so he only had one
16:55
relief pitcher pitch, one relief inning last night.
16:58
Mackenzie Girl only went five innings for Washington, so the
17:01
bullpen of the Nats was really taxed last night.
17:04
And John Gray saved the bullpen of Texas last night, so
17:07
hopefully that's a benefit toward the Rangers.
17:10
Rangers also would match classic interleague home interleague
17:13
favorite off a win 63 percent, 6% ROI this year.
17:16
But shop around, guys. I'm going with Texas.
17:18
Massive steam. Let's go, Rangers at -180.
17:23
Then last bet of the night I'm going to sweat for the first
17:25
time ever. Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
17:29
That's right, the phenom from Japan who got a bajillion
17:32
dollars to go to the Dodgers. I like them tonight.
17:34
Let's go Dodgers. So Dodgers are at the Arizona
17:37
Diamondbacks. We did see last night, which
17:40
incites the rubber match because the Dodgers, who are 19 and 13,
17:43
they won the opener 8 to 4, winning as a -, 140 Rd.
17:47
favorite. Last night, the D backs 14 and
17:49
17. They clawed back with a four to
17:50
three win in extra innings as a -, 1 O 5 home dog before
17:54
tonight's series finale, mentioned Yoshinobu Yamamoto
17:58
going for the Dodgers. I'm excited to watch him for the
18:00
first time. Two and one 3.54 ERA.
18:03
Remember his first start? He got lit up.
18:04
I think he gave up five runs. He's been really good ever
18:06
since. On the flip side, Jordan
18:09
Montgomery, one in one 2.77 ERA. He'll be going for Arizona.
18:13
But to me, guys, once again, this is about the steam on the
18:16
Dodgers. Dodgers open this game around a
18:18
-, 130 Rd. favorite. Now they've been bet up all the
18:21
way to -145. Some shops even as high as -150.
18:25
When I wrote about the Dodgers earlier today, they were -145
18:29
and again I'm seeing a -, 150. I see a -, 155 out there too.
18:32
So line continues to grow in favor of LA.
18:35
Now the Dodgers are getting around 83% of bets, almost 90%
18:40
of money. So public, but also sharp
18:42
action. And if you look at system
18:44
matches here quite a few on the Dodgers.
18:46
First, we have Rd. favorites 95 and 6460 percent, 6% ROI this
18:51
year, favorites off a loss 117 and 7760 percent 3% ROI.
18:56
Dodgers also have the better bats starting 271 versus 250 for
19:00
Arizona, better bullpen, 3.66 ERA versus 4.41, And the Dodgers
19:06
are hitting 281 against lefties this year.
19:08
Like I am a fan of. I'm a fan of Jordan Montgomery.
19:13
But Montgomery, remember, he had a late start to the year because
19:16
you had questions about, you know, who he would sign with and
19:20
had to kind of get his cardio back.
19:22
And he was, I believe he was supposed to pitch last night.
19:25
But there was a crazy thing where there was AB delay where
19:28
literally bees, like, you know, this is bees, they were all over
19:32
like a wire around the batting Brownholme plate.
19:36
It was the most bizarre thing I've seen.
19:37
But anyway, he was supposed to start.
19:38
He got scratched. He's going tonight.
19:40
What I'm getting at is that the Dodgers are #1 in MLB against
19:44
lefties this year. They are hitting 281 against
19:46
lefties, so hopefully they can get to Montgomery tonight.
19:50
Angels sorry, Los Angeles 7 and three over the last 10 games,
19:54
hitting 292 with a 2.22 ERA. Arizona, meanwhile, is four and
19:58
six. Over their last ten, they're
20:00
hitting only 225 with a 4.29 ERA.
20:04
So we're going to go with the Dodgers with a big sharp steam
20:08
move -130 up to on -145. Let's go Dodgers.
20:13
Now I want to confirm one thing, because I think the Giants as
20:18
I'm looking. I saw something light up here.
20:21
Yeah, so here it is. This is why books.
20:23
We just got some clarity. Literally as I'm doing the pod
20:26
on San Francisco starting pitcher.
20:28
It is not, it's actually not going to be Jeffries.
20:33
It is going to be Eric Miller. He is starting as a lefty opener
20:37
tonight. So that is now official.
20:41
So a lefty opener and now you should be able to bet the Red
20:44
Sox game. And I would assume that with the
20:47
lefty opener socks do pretty well against lefties.
20:49
This line's probably going to shoot up.
20:50
So if you haven't Betty yet you should be able to any second now
20:52
with now Eric Miller. Lefty opener here for the
20:56
Giants. SO4 bets tonight.
20:58
Can we get three of them? That's the goal.
21:00
Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers and the Dodgers.
21:04
Now over to the Nbai got to bet for you in the NBA and I'm going
21:08
to get rich or die trying betting on the NBA because I got
21:12
to I got to admit NBA betting to me is the hardest sport to bet
21:15
on. I feel like I've been snake bit
21:16
here recently in the NBA, but I'm going to go with a Heat
21:20
Celtics bet tonight and I'm going to go with the under.
21:24
I'm going under. I've seen enough of these the
21:27
putrid offense of the Heat. There's also a bunch of reasons
21:29
like the under tonight. It's a very low number and I
21:32
think this is just tough because you look at a total of 200 or
21:35
two 200 and a half 200.5. You know how did how did two NBA
21:40
teams not go over that number. It seems like it's super easy to
21:43
do, but I feel like it's set low for a reason.
21:45
I'm going Heat Celtics under two 200 1/2.
21:50
Now first thing you know about this is it's a bit of a line
21:52
freeze. Because excuse me, this game
21:55
opened with a total of around 202 hundred and a half and the
22:00
public saying it's so low it's got to go over.
22:02
Nearly 80% of bets are going over and I get it.
22:05
I try to leave my bias at the door, but it feels like, how do
22:07
these teams not score 100 points each and go over that number?
22:10
Feels very doable right? However, the fact that nearly 8
22:14
out of 10 bets are going over but the total hasn't really
22:17
moved tells me we have some smart money liability under now
22:21
to add to our handicap to take the under #1.
22:24
It's really contrarian. 80% of bets are on over.
22:27
But also if you look at the injuries for tonight's game, no
22:31
Jaime Hakas. Jaime Hakas will not play and
22:34
Kristops Porzingis will not play either.
22:37
Both are injured. Those are both two of the better
22:39
offensive players for both teams so hopefully a hit to the
22:43
offense. You also have three under
22:45
referees. All three under refs for tonight
22:48
are between 51 and 54% to the under.
22:51
Also we have a big spread under, so coral to betting here.
22:54
Celtics open I believe -13, they're up to -14.
22:58
I see a -, 14 1/2 out there. Big spread, get up big, take
23:02
your foot off the gas. Hopefully that's a benefit.
23:05
And also you look at pace, Miami is 29th in terms of pace.
23:08
Boston is 23rd and also a bit of a late series under system
23:12
match. One system that I really love is
23:14
taking the under in game six and game seven.
23:16
Now this is only game five, so we're not quite toward the end
23:19
of the season or end of the series.
23:21
But as you get deeper into the series, tired legs, you know how
23:24
to match up, facing elimination. Typically you see you know,
23:27
basically chewing up the shot clock, not taking too many
23:30
chances, being deliberate with your your passes.
23:32
Usually that leads to lower scoring games in general.
23:35
If you look at unders this post season they are I believe 20
23:39
like 25 and 15 to the under save cash pretty well.
23:43
And just look at the look at the the box scores of these games.
23:46
Game one 114 to 94, two O 8 was the total, 111 to one O 2 or
23:52
sorry 111 to one O 1212 was the total.
23:55
And then really the last two games, one O 4 to 84188 was the
23:59
total. One O 2 to 88190 was the total,
24:03
the average so far in the series combined.
24:06
I know it's not an exact science but 199 1/2 so there's been a
24:09
lowest lower scoring series. So we have everybody batting the
24:12
over because it seems so low it's got to go over.
24:15
Yet the lines pretty much stayed the same.
24:17
We have under rafts. We're really contrarian.
24:19
No Hawk as no Porzingis. Big spread under slow pace.
24:22
I'm going Celtics Heat under. Make sure you get the hook
24:27
because you hate to see it land on 200 and you lose be or you.
24:30
You know you lose because you got an or a bat or you push
24:34
because you got a 200. Make sure you get the hook.
24:36
I'm on under 200 1/2 for the Heat in the Celtics.
24:41
Now to finish up the pod. One last bet for you.
24:43
Let's go to the NHL. We got a two game double header
24:47
here tonight. Vegas and Dallas and the Kings
24:50
and the Edmonton Oilers. I'm going to focus on the second
24:52
game. Kings Oilers.
24:54
It's a 10:00 game here tonight. Now currently we have the Oilers
24:57
up 3 to 1. Oilers win.
24:59
It's over. This is a desperation spot for
25:01
the Kings. Now the line is moving toward
25:04
the Edmonton Oilers. They opened around -185.
25:09
They're close to -200 at this point.
25:11
But I'm going to focus on a player prop.
25:12
I'm going to go to the shots on goal department and I'm going to
25:15
play Kevin Fiala, Kevin Fiala of the LA Kings over 2 1/2 shots on
25:22
goal. Now I got Fiala over 2 1/2 shots
25:24
on goal at -140. And what I like about this over
25:28
couple things. One, Kevin Fiala's gone over
25:31
this number in every game. He had three shots, four shots,
25:34
three shots, four shots through the first four games.
25:37
So he's averaged 3 1/2 shots per game.
25:39
So as long as he just gives us three tonight, we cash our over.
25:43
But then also Kevin Fiala, he's got fourteen shots overall the
25:47
series, that's the second most on the team and he's third.
25:50
He was third on the team during the regular season in terms of
25:53
shots on goal with 225. And also this is an angle here
25:58
basically on the Kings. Like do they win the game?
26:00
I'm not sure. You know, Edmonton is up three
26:02
to one. They can close out, they're at
26:03
home, They're kind of a big favorite, close to -200.
26:07
But I think the Kings are going to empty the tank here and be
26:09
desperation mode. So not get fancy pucks to the
26:13
net, pucks in, deep shots on goal.
26:16
I think you're going to get a desperate effort out of the
26:17
Kings. So whether they win or lose,
26:19
that remains to be seen. But are you going to go down
26:22
swinging with your best players who put a lot of pucks on net,
26:26
continuing to put pucks on net? I think that is an angle here to
26:29
back the Kings and specifically Kevin Fiala.
26:32
So Fiala's gone over this number in every game.
26:34
Let's see if we can do it again. I'm on Kevin Fiala.
26:37
Over 2 1/2 shots on goal at -140.
26:42
That about does it for episode 34 of the All Systems Go Sports
26:46
Betting podcast. But reminder, a little bit of
26:48
housekeeping as always to end the pod #1.
26:50
Thank you for listening to the pod.
26:52
Thank you for grinding in the arena with me each day as
26:55
data-driven contrarian betters. I always imagine meeting with my
26:58
buds at the at the, you know, whether it's a sports book or,
27:02
you know, a local bar, talking games, talking sharp line moves.
27:06
And I am privileged and honored to host this pod each day.
27:09
But I need your help to grow the pod.
27:12
So we want to grow organically. So number one, word of mouth.
27:15
There's nothing more important than, you know, you recommending
27:18
this pod to a friend of yours who just wants updates and line
27:21
moves and breakdowns from a data perspective each day.
27:24
So if you want to just recommend it to a friend or colleague or
27:26
family member, that would go a long way.
27:29
But also there's something you can do to help me grow the pod.
27:31
Very simple, very easy. Just give the pod a five star
27:34
review, whether it's iTunes or Spotify.
27:37
Give it five stars. That would really mean a lot to
27:39
help us grow and and rise up the charts.
27:42
Secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns each day you look
27:44
forward to listening to the All Systems gopod.
27:47
You want to learn more about data-driven contrarian betting?
27:49
Then guess what? There's something you can do.
27:51
You can go buy my book. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
27:55
the Everything Guide to sports betting, pick up a copy for you
27:58
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
27:59
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
28:02
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
28:04
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
28:07
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
28:10
All included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
28:12
So pick one up for you, or for a friend or that buddy of yours
28:16
who poles everything and send them right to the bankroll
28:19
management chapter, but you buy one.
28:21
Guess what? I'm going to meet you at the
28:23
book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
28:24
buy you a beer. Or if you don't drink, I'll buy
28:26
you, I don't know, a Diet Coke. But anyway, guys, that about
28:29
does it. Whether I see you at the Borgata
28:31
in Atlantic City. Twin River in Rhode Island in
28:33
the Brooklyn New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
28:35
Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
28:38
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods are out
28:41
in the desert where the true grinders get down.
28:43
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners or lowest juice
28:46
possible is found at the South point or sweating sharp
28:48
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool at Circa.
28:52
However it may be you're going to walk up to me.
28:53
You're going to show me some nice baseball tickets from last
28:56
night. Padres Phillies twins.
28:58
The Stroh's on a walk off Two Run Homer by Victor Caratini.
29:02
Flash me one of those tickets. First one's on me.
29:04
Next one's on you or them. We're going to post about the
29:05
book. Sweat sharp, contrarian plays
29:07
all night long before I give you my parting words.
29:10
Of course. Have you signed up for Rhythm
29:12
yet? I want you to go sign up and
29:14
give Rhythm a shot 7 day free trial.
29:16
Rhythm is the number one AI backed platform for sharp and
29:21
data-driven picks as well as system matches for player props
29:26
as well. But if you haven't done it yet,
29:28
give it a shot. I'm seeing a lot of you guys on
29:30
gals on Twitter enjoying rhythm and cashing your props.
29:33
So in order to sign up and test it out and use it as another
29:36
resource to help you make smart bets, all you got to do is go to
29:39
my Twitter page at Josh, under score Insights, give me a follow
29:43
and that pinned tweet. At the top of my page will be a
29:45
link, a custom link to sign up for rhythm.
29:48
Give it a shot. I think you're going to enjoy
29:49
it. You can also sign up, if you're
29:51
listening on Spotify to the link to Rhythm in the Bio, but that
29:55
about does it everyone. My parting words stay sharp,
29:58
stay contrarian, Bet against the public, Place yourself on the
30:01
side of the house. Always be with the smart money.
30:03
Never against it. Will smart money one every time?
30:06
Of course not. Look at the bees last night.
30:08
We bet a -, 155, They closed -175, they let us down.
30:12
But hey, that's sports. That's life sometimes.
30:14
But we can consistently, long term be fearless but discipline
30:18
and get down on games that fit our model against the public,
30:21
with the house, with the pros, flat bet.
30:23
Avoid parlays and get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
30:26
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats tonight
30:28
guys. Thank you for the birthday
30:31
wishes once the wife gets out of work.
30:34
She is taking me out to dinner tonight, so I don't know where
30:36
we're going. She's keeping it a secret.
30:39
But we are going to a fancy dinner.
30:40
We do this for each other. We've been together a little
30:43
more than five years at this point.
30:44
Boy, does time fly when we're newly dating.
30:48
When we moved in together, we got a house, we got a dog.
30:51
When it's her birthday, I take her to a fancy dinner, usually
30:54
in the North End in Boston. She loves Italian.
30:56
I don't know where she's taking me tonight, but hey, I'm looking
30:58
forward to it. Maybe maybe get a birthday cake
31:01
or something out of it. Anyway, guys, thank you for the
31:03
well wishes. Let's get a big hopefully have a
31:06
big night here in the arena. Episode 34.
31:09
Your Boys. Your boy just turned 37.
31:11
Can you believe it? I still feel young at Harpo,
31:13
man. I'm getting up there.
31:15
But have a great night, guys. Good luck and I'll see you
31:17
tomorrow for episode 35 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
31:20
Podcast. Good luck.