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Best Bets NFL Week 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites to the podcast presented by BET
0:13
Speaker 1: three six five, part of the Action Network. I am
0:16
Speaker 1: Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
0:20
Speaker 1: is our week two Thursday NFL episode. This is the
0:24
Speaker 1: episode where we get feedback from the wise guys who
0:28
Speaker 1: listen to the show. We narrow down our bets to
0:32
Speaker 1: say five to seven we are leaning towards. In our
0:36
Speaker 1: new totally free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
0:42
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest, Folks, we reached the ten thousand
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Speaker 1: it much much sooner than we thought we would. Thank
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1:11
Speaker 1: five official picks when Simon and I lock them in
1:14
Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday. We will lock them in usually
1:17
Speaker 1: between eleven and forty five and noon on Sunday. Don't forget,
1:20
Speaker 1: the contest will drop your two lowest scores once we
1:23
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1:28
Speaker 1: you still got time. Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. You
1:33
Speaker 1: can also track all the bets Simon and I lock
1:36
Speaker 1: in before kickoff Sunday by following two accounts on the
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Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app. Those accounts are called the
1:45
Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorites Podcast. Let's Bring in My Costs,
1:51
Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, MYBFF, professional better Simon Hunter, et.
1:59
Speaker 2: Oh, I am in sad? How we doing, brother?
2:03
Speaker 1: You know what? Sunday night? We were miserable. Monday. I
2:07
Speaker 1: was sick to my stomach, so sick to my stomach
2:11
Speaker 1: that people felt it from the Sunday show and they
2:13
Speaker 1: were texting me on Monday to ask me if I
2:15
Speaker 1: was okay during the day. Felt better after the Jets win,
2:20
Speaker 1: felt really good after our Tuesday podcast, Thursday comes around,
2:26
Speaker 1: I'm ready to dig in. How about you?
2:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I could talk about all sixteen games again.
2:32
Speaker 2: I got this this week, all the movement everything. I
2:34
Speaker 2: know we won't, but it's so much has changed and
2:37
Speaker 2: updated just since Tuesday. A lot of what we've talked about,
2:41
Speaker 2: the lines moved, and it is just the exciting time
2:44
Speaker 2: of the year where you know I started those Week
2:46
Speaker 2: one lines chats for about three four months. This week
2:49
Speaker 2: is just fun that it's different lines, there's different angles,
2:51
Speaker 2: and everyone's opinions have completely shifted on teams. So definitely
2:55
Speaker 2: been a fun week for not only sharp calls, but
2:57
Speaker 2: just talking to you know, runners and other guys in
2:59
Speaker 2: the books, and it's just everyone's just so fired up
3:02
Speaker 2: that football back. So yeah, I couldn't wait to get
3:04
Speaker 2: back on here and dive in a Week two.
3:06
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
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Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one eight
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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Simon,
4:06
Speaker 1: you said it like a lot of the stuff we
4:08
Speaker 1: talked about on Sunday in the New Sunday Show. A
4:11
Speaker 1: lot of the stuff we talked about on Tuesday in
4:13
Speaker 1: regard to lines moving, where money was gonna come, where
4:16
Speaker 1: wise guys were gonna be has come to fruition. I
4:19
Speaker 1: love having the ability to react to the overreaction from
4:26
Speaker 1: week one. I think we're seeing a lot of opportunities there.
4:29
Speaker 1: You mentioned it. There's a ton of games we could
4:31
Speaker 1: talk about. I think we have more games that we
4:33
Speaker 1: still like than we normally do. Got about ten or
4:36
Speaker 1: eleven games normally, We've got seven or eight. Week two
4:40
Speaker 1: kickoff is on the way, Opportunities all over the board.
4:44
Speaker 1: Let's not dilly dally. It's time for sharp calls.
4:52
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody
4:58
Speaker 2: say it baby lunch?
5:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, what do we got some?
5:03
Speaker 2: So you're pretty quick one, I'll just run through them
5:05
Speaker 2: right off the top. Kind of knew where the boys
5:07
Speaker 2: were gonna go. They were gonna go in Minnesota. So
5:10
Speaker 2: I took a lot of heat saying I would take
5:11
Speaker 2: the Eagles no matter what. Once it dropped under seven,
5:14
Speaker 2: I'm sticking to it. Still gonna take them. But just
5:17
Speaker 2: because I respect these guys. Not only did they do
5:19
Speaker 2: they like the Vikings. I saw our guys, you know,
5:22
Speaker 2: Nick and Sean on the luck rankings. They love the
5:24
Speaker 2: Vikings and the spot is Drankings. So Eagles got some
5:28
Speaker 2: injuries to their secondary, got some injuries to the safety position.
5:32
Speaker 2: Our number two corners out, our starting mintal linebackers out
5:35
Speaker 2: are literally our play colors out of Kobe Dean. All right,
5:38
Speaker 2: I'll lick my winter. I'll just take I'll take the
5:40
Speaker 2: Eagles and a teaser or the Giants. Like I told you,
5:43
Speaker 2: I'm all in on faith in this Arizona team. So
5:45
Speaker 2: they go right there. You got a nice Wong teaser.
5:46
Speaker 2: Just get it down to a pick. The pros love
5:49
Speaker 2: the Vikings in the spot, So the next three I'll
5:51
Speaker 2: run through quick. They love New England a game me
5:53
Speaker 2: and you were going to dive into. They love Atlanta
5:55
Speaker 2: a game we're going to dive into. They love Houston
5:58
Speaker 2: a game we're going to dive into. So those were
6:00
Speaker 2: the three teams that a lot of guys were in
6:03
Speaker 2: linement with us on the big one. They hated my
6:05
Speaker 2: pick chat, they hate my Browns pick, They like Pittsburgh.
6:08
Speaker 2: They think we're buying too high on the Browns. Here.
6:13
Speaker 2: I get where they're coming from. I really do hate
6:14
Speaker 2: taking road favorites, especially on Monday Night. But I just
6:18
Speaker 2: I just think this Browns team is undervalued by a
6:20
Speaker 2: lot of professionals. So that was definitely when we butt
6:23
Speaker 2: head on is another game we're going to talk about.
6:26
Speaker 2: You know, the pros love Tennessee. So it's definitely a
6:29
Speaker 2: week of a lot of home dogs, a lot of
6:32
Speaker 2: professionals loving the home dogs.
6:34
Speaker 1: Oh my god, this never fucking happens. Simon, I love Atlanta.
6:39
Speaker 1: You don't love Atlanta. Now the otherwise, guys love Atlanta.
6:43
Speaker 1: I love Tennessee. You're like, that's going to be a
6:46
Speaker 1: public dog. You don't love Tennessee. But the other wise,
6:49
Speaker 1: guys love Tennessee. But what's killing me? I hate when
6:54
Speaker 1: you and Nick and Sean and like all of the
6:59
Speaker 1: metrics and sort of instincts that I rely on aren't
7:04
Speaker 1: lining up on a game and you're saying around the Eagles,
7:09
Speaker 1: I haven't really hesitant to pull the trigger because I
7:11
Speaker 1: just thought the vikings were so bad, like could be
7:15
Speaker 1: institutionally bad. So it's been nervous for me. I don't
7:20
Speaker 1: have to do about this game still, Yeah.
7:22
Speaker 2: It just scares that that's what I'm doing. The teaser
7:24
Speaker 2: where Kirk is, I don't even know. I think he's
7:26
Speaker 2: I think Evan our guy said he's three and twelve
7:29
Speaker 2: straight up on primetime games. I saw some stet that
7:31
Speaker 2: he was two and sixteen on primetime games straight up.
7:34
Speaker 2: So whatever the number is, he might cover this because
7:37
Speaker 2: I know he's five and two since two thousand in
7:39
Speaker 2: primetime games. But he just doesn't win these games. So
7:43
Speaker 2: it feels a lot like I'm not the biggest teaser guy,
7:45
Speaker 2: but this spot Eagles at home, I'll take them on
7:48
Speaker 2: a teaser.
7:49
Speaker 1: So it's funny.
7:49
Speaker 2: You know.
7:50
Speaker 1: The other day we did our favorite film session video
7:55
Speaker 1: where you and I YouTube only go check it out.
7:58
Speaker 1: It's really fun. We break down own a play from
8:02
Speaker 1: the previous week. Each of us choose a play and
8:04
Speaker 1: we break it down and you chose Miles Garrett rushing
8:07
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and after that I was so convinced that
8:09
Speaker 1: the Browns were just an elite team offensive line, a
8:14
Speaker 1: defensive line. I immediately bet the Browns, and within by
8:18
Speaker 1: the afternoon, I immediately regretted it. I'm like, why would
8:22
Speaker 1: I overreact to the I do? That was everything that
8:25
Speaker 1: was wrong, a road favorite, less than a field goal
8:29
Speaker 1: division game, prime time, and like overreacting to the Steelers
8:35
Speaker 1: thinking and the Browns being amazing. It could be because
8:38
Speaker 1: we bet both of those games and we're so off
8:40
Speaker 1: on the Steelers and so right on the Browns.
8:42
Speaker 2: But well, I mean, we'll talk about it here, Chad,
8:44
Speaker 2: but this is a big week two to me. Not
8:48
Speaker 2: only is it a big week for my model, but
8:49
Speaker 2: it's a big tone set of for teams in their
8:51
Speaker 2: season where Miami, if Miami really is going to win
8:54
Speaker 2: their division right and two, is going to take that
8:56
Speaker 2: next step and go into that where you hit you
8:58
Speaker 2: ranked the top ten head of the season. He takes
9:00
Speaker 2: that next step. This is a game they win. They
9:03
Speaker 2: go into Foxborough and they win this game and they
9:05
Speaker 2: cover that number. And it feels the same thing here
9:07
Speaker 2: with this Browns team, Like the Browns, same old Browns
9:10
Speaker 2: would go into this game on Monday Night. The public's
9:12
Speaker 2: all over them, and they just completely choke and lose
9:14
Speaker 2: this game to Pittsburgh. So there's a couple of games
9:17
Speaker 2: here this week we're talking about they're literally tone setters
9:19
Speaker 2: for their season. Like we know the stats. You start
9:21
Speaker 2: two to zero, you're gonna probably make the playoffs. And
9:23
Speaker 2: these other teams that start owing too, it's like eleven
9:26
Speaker 2: percent chance you can make it into the playoffs. So
9:29
Speaker 2: Week two is such a tone setter for a lot
9:30
Speaker 2: of these teams upcoming season.
9:33
Speaker 1: By the way, I wanted to compliment you. I watched
9:35
Speaker 1: the Favorite Film Session video the other day and you
9:39
Speaker 1: noticed two things in the play that I chose, which
9:41
Speaker 1: was brock Perty's touchdown pass to Brandon I you sort
9:43
Speaker 1: of fade into the end zone. It was a fifty
9:46
Speaker 1: to fifty ball, and you notice two things. One, you
9:49
Speaker 1: noticed the free runner, the running back for the Niners
9:53
Speaker 1: was a free runner. That's where the checkdown, that's where
9:55
Speaker 1: most quarterbacks would go, which I hadn't even seen. But
9:58
Speaker 1: you autos also noticed the depth of the Steeler's safety
10:01
Speaker 1: was off. Like Simon, he knows this stuff. He's watching
10:04
Speaker 1: a lot of films. Listen, let's do one thing for
10:07
Speaker 1: producer Tito, so he doesn't yell at us, and this
10:10
Speaker 1: way people in the comments can yell at him. As
10:12
Speaker 1: a reminder, you can catch every episode of The Favorites
10:14
Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those who are watching us on
10:17
Speaker 1: YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a like
10:20
Speaker 1: smash that like. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
10:23
Speaker 1: We love it. It's so kind. We appreciate it. Dude.
10:28
Speaker 1: We got so many games. We got to start narrowing
10:31
Speaker 1: it down. We've got to get to our Foxhole bet.
10:33
Speaker 1: We've got to get to our Survivor pick. We have
10:35
Speaker 1: a request from an email er to do two Survivor picks,
10:38
Speaker 1: and of course our big Balls bet of the week.
10:41
Speaker 1: I've got a strong opinion on this right now, let's
10:43
Speaker 1: see if we are aligned. We haven't talked about it.
10:46
Speaker 1: Games we talked about most on Tuesday. Some we can
10:49
Speaker 1: just quickly knock off because we might not like the
10:52
Speaker 1: line anymore. We like Kansas City minus three at Jacksonville.
10:56
Speaker 1: They're now three and a half in a contest play.
10:59
Speaker 1: I feel like we might find five games with lines
11:02
Speaker 1: that are more advantageous from a from an ev point
11:08
Speaker 1: of view.
11:10
Speaker 2: We might have to take the Jags chot. I mean,
11:11
Speaker 2: if this goes up, if Kelsey gets cleared and this
11:14
Speaker 2: is four and a half by contests, Yeah, why would
11:17
Speaker 2: we not take the Jaguars there? Four and a half dog?
11:19
Speaker 2: We think Mahomes will win, But what does Mahomes doing
11:22
Speaker 2: Win's close games? And you know, watching the Jaguars offense
11:25
Speaker 2: with Calvin Ridley, what they lose by last year in
11:28
Speaker 2: the playoffs, I think it was seven points. We knew
11:30
Speaker 2: they could compete. And if you put Calval Rindley in
11:32
Speaker 2: that game against the Chiefs last year, you know, it's
11:34
Speaker 2: a totally different game. So definitely a game I'm excited for.
11:37
Speaker 2: But yet, if you got two and a half three
11:39
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs, you got a great number. Clearly we
11:42
Speaker 2: knew it was gonna shift. So yeah, no longer would
11:44
Speaker 2: that be a player for us on the Chiefs. We
11:46
Speaker 2: might start looking Jaguars by kickoff?
11:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, it's three and a half at bet
11:50
Speaker 1: three six five. By the way, Vikings are now at
11:54
Speaker 1: plus six against the Eagles at bet three six five.
11:59
Speaker 1: So let's put a pin in Kansas City because the
12:03
Speaker 1: other game that I think is really important that's gotten
12:05
Speaker 1: a lot of conversation and Stucky in raybon on The
12:08
Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast talked about this one. It's a big
12:13
Speaker 1: game for the luck rankings. You know, we love the
12:17
Speaker 1: luck rankings. Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, Billy Ward. They'll put
12:23
Speaker 1: out their list of sort of they basically clean up
12:25
Speaker 1: the mess, right and they say, all right, these are
12:28
Speaker 1: the teams that got luckiest. They won, but the perception
12:32
Speaker 1: on them is high because they had random events that
12:36
Speaker 1: helped them win more than the quality of their play.
12:40
Speaker 1: Raiders in their luck rankings, third luckiest team in Week one,
12:45
Speaker 1: by the way, Eagles number one. We're going to get
12:47
Speaker 1: to the Lions and the Seahawks. Lions were number two.
12:50
Speaker 1: So right now, Simon says, Buffalo eight and a half
12:54
Speaker 1: was the number that we got on Tuesday. Right now,
12:59
Speaker 1: the buff Bills are nine and a half point favorites
13:01
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. Stucky in the Action Network Podcast with
13:04
Speaker 1: Raybund on Thursday and the Sunday six Pack, maybe my
13:08
Speaker 1: favorite episode of a podcast we do still likes the
13:12
Speaker 1: Bills at nine and a half.
13:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you I made the line ten. So
13:16
Speaker 2: anything under ten, I think you're getting good bye. In
13:18
Speaker 2: the Bills and we're just betting on Josh Allen to
13:21
Speaker 2: bounce back spot again another team that we think there'll
13:24
Speaker 2: be a playoff team, Chad, we expect the Bills to
13:26
Speaker 2: bounce back. If they blow this game, then you start
13:30
Speaker 2: getting worried because this is a great spot for this
13:32
Speaker 2: Bills team at home and a get right spot against
13:34
Speaker 2: a Raiders team coming off a huge last drive playoff
13:37
Speaker 2: win against a divisional arrival. So yeah, the numbers are
13:41
Speaker 2: going to say it's good, and the situation says it's good.
13:44
Speaker 2: So those are just one of those where I'm making
13:46
Speaker 2: Chad forcing a favorite. This will most likely be one
13:49
Speaker 2: of the favorites. If we get a nine and a
13:50
Speaker 2: half in contest, I'll try to force this one in.
13:53
Speaker 1: I don't feel like you'd be forcing it. Like Raybon
13:56
Speaker 1: had a great stat on the podcast.
13:58
Speaker 2: I just love a lot of dogs like you, That's
14:00
Speaker 2: what I mean. Like, it's gonna be hard to find
14:01
Speaker 2: a favorite to force in. This is the one we'll
14:03
Speaker 2: probably have to. Well.
14:04
Speaker 1: Raybon had a stat thirty seven of fifty three career
14:10
Speaker 1: wins by Josh Allen have been by a touchdown or more. Yeah,
14:17
Speaker 1: like when they win and we said this last year.
14:19
Speaker 1: When they win, they blow out. When they lose, they
14:21
Speaker 1: lose close. When they win, they win big. And there's
14:24
Speaker 1: already people saying, well, maybe Josh Allen isn't as good
14:27
Speaker 1: as we thought. We can do away with that. Josh
14:29
Speaker 1: Allen is still a top to top three quarterback in
14:33
Speaker 1: the NFL, and this is a pretty good spot. So
14:35
Speaker 1: you and I completely aligned on the Bills as a
14:39
Speaker 1: potential contest entry.
14:42
Speaker 2: And another team if you're thinking about putting them in
14:44
Speaker 2: Survivor as a favorite or seven more points. Josh Allen
14:47
Speaker 2: is sixteen and one straight up. So if you do
14:50
Speaker 2: want to burn your Bills play, I get it. But
14:53
Speaker 2: to me, I still think the Giants is the play
14:55
Speaker 2: and we'll talk at the end of the show.
14:57
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, last night somebody was
14:59
Speaker 1: tech to me asking me for for Survivor picks, and
15:02
Speaker 1: I said, and you and I haven't even talked about it.
15:04
Speaker 1: I said, I'd probably go with the Giants because I
15:06
Speaker 1: don't want to use the Chiefs or the Bills or
15:08
Speaker 1: anybody else that early. But I do wanna I do
15:13
Speaker 1: wanna like make a call and like that that felt
15:17
Speaker 1: like the right one to do.
15:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to use average and bad teams. That's
15:20
Speaker 2: that's usually my method early on.
15:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll get we'll get to that. Sunday night,
15:27
Speaker 1: we said take the Bengals. Line's going to move. The
15:31
Speaker 1: lines moved. They're three and a half point home favorite
15:34
Speaker 1: now against the Ravens. I don't feel the need to
15:37
Speaker 1: put the Bengals in the contest, but I do want
15:39
Speaker 1: to talk about at what point do we say, all right,
15:42
Speaker 1: we just take we bet the Ravens against the Bengals
15:45
Speaker 1: at what number?
15:50
Speaker 2: I don't know. Obviously, if I got the four to
15:52
Speaker 2: four and a half, i'd think more about it. But
15:54
Speaker 2: if you're sitting on a Bengals three, you just need
15:56
Speaker 2: to let this play out. I think that's the good
15:57
Speaker 2: number in this game, and your bet on Joe Brow
16:00
Speaker 2: to bounce back against a banged up Ravens team. So yeah,
16:05
Speaker 2: it's it's a pretty split game. I think it's I
16:08
Speaker 2: thought it was even more professionals versus Joe's and it
16:10
Speaker 2: seems like, you know, there's some pros on the Baltimore
16:13
Speaker 2: Ravens side. Yeah, I saw some stat I think Action
16:17
Speaker 2: tweeted out eighteen and five Lamar as an underdog ats
16:21
Speaker 2: so definitely get get why those guys that like to
16:24
Speaker 2: play the trends will come back on the Ravens. So
16:27
Speaker 2: I'll just take my small bed in the three and
16:29
Speaker 2: let that ride. It's just not there's not much value
16:30
Speaker 2: in this game.
16:32
Speaker 1: No, all right, let's talk about the Titans. Like, here's
16:37
Speaker 1: what I do. I don't get your sort of lack
16:41
Speaker 1: of belief in this team as a three point home dog,
16:48
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm being mocked for loving the Titans.
16:52
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel as a dog. Evan can back me up here,
16:58
Speaker 1: but Mike Vrabel as a dog. I'm in my notes
17:01
Speaker 1: something like, what is it heaven in front of me?
17:04
Speaker 1: Twenty four to nine and one in his career when
17:07
Speaker 1: the spread is three or higher. He's twenty four fifteen
17:12
Speaker 1: and one overall against the spread during his career as
17:16
Speaker 1: an underdog. I don't know why this isn't an automatic
17:20
Speaker 1: play for us.
17:21
Speaker 2: Probably will be now I'm I'm coming around to Tennessee.
17:24
Speaker 2: It's just it's hard for me if this game turns
17:28
Speaker 2: into a shootout that Tannehill can keep up with Herbert,
17:32
Speaker 2: And that's what I'm worried this will turn into. Because
17:34
Speaker 2: Tennessee has the best run one of the best run
17:36
Speaker 2: defense in the football, but they have one of the
17:38
Speaker 2: worst passing defenses in all football. And Derek Carr just
17:41
Speaker 2: threw for three hundred yards on them last week in
17:43
Speaker 2: his first game as a Saint. So yeah, it's a
17:47
Speaker 2: little scary, Chad. But yeah, if we're going by what
17:51
Speaker 2: all the pros want to do and what the book says,
17:53
Speaker 2: we're supposed to take Tennessee here, I think my issue
17:55
Speaker 2: is I just have I have definitely have the Chargers
17:58
Speaker 2: power rated too high. That's like, that's a thing I'm
18:01
Speaker 2: going to learn here for this game, where if they
18:02
Speaker 2: don't win this game and cover it, I'm gonna knock
18:05
Speaker 2: them down because I really didn't move them at all
18:06
Speaker 2: from that Miami game. I just think that's just one
18:08
Speaker 2: of those games where you know, they put up thirty
18:11
Speaker 2: four points in a loss. It's hard for me to
18:13
Speaker 2: really get move too much of the Chargers. I think
18:16
Speaker 2: that gets lost in Miami's great game. It's like Fangs
18:20
Speaker 2: is are great, one of the best coordinators in all football.
18:22
Speaker 2: He went to Miami to fix that defense. Herbert hung
18:25
Speaker 2: thirty four on them. So I'm trying not to overreact
18:28
Speaker 2: to it. That's just the fear in this game. But
18:29
Speaker 2: I think you nailed it where it's like we're going
18:32
Speaker 2: by the book and you're playing the early trends. We're
18:35
Speaker 2: supposed to take the home dog here at three, and
18:39
Speaker 2: I'm hoping against the three and a half because that
18:41
Speaker 2: I could take in contest, which we might get. But
18:43
Speaker 2: if it's two and a half in contest, Chad, it's
18:45
Speaker 2: gonna be hard for me to get convinced to take it.
18:49
Speaker 1: Vrabel eight and four straight up and against the spread
18:55
Speaker 1: as a home dog as well.
18:58
Speaker 2: So in real life, I might just be the move
19:00
Speaker 2: take the money one.
19:02
Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, you know, I'm thinking about this week.
19:05
Speaker 1: Like last week, I kind of sprayed the board and
19:08
Speaker 1: I bet on so many different games. This week, I
19:13
Speaker 1: haven't bet on as many games, but I'm thinking of
19:16
Speaker 1: sort of putting more units, you know, going a little
19:20
Speaker 1: bit bigger on the games that I like a lot,
19:22
Speaker 1: or you know, money line, a little bit of like
19:25
Speaker 1: a quarter unit on the money line for the Titans
19:28
Speaker 1: and plus a full unit on the Titans of plus
19:32
Speaker 1: three those kinds of formulas.
19:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can knock get So for what I do
19:37
Speaker 2: is I go really heavy in week one, especially because
19:39
Speaker 2: I think I have good spots and I can bet
19:41
Speaker 2: it for months ahead of time. Now next week two,
19:45
Speaker 2: Week three, Week four. I don't go too crazy because
19:48
Speaker 2: I'm still trying to form my model and my info
19:50
Speaker 2: for this upcoming season. So me personally, and when we
19:55
Speaker 2: haven't talked about my two biggest bet games right now,
19:59
Speaker 2: I definitely think Houston is gonna be is one of them.
20:01
Speaker 2: Like that's what I'm like, we'll talk about. I just
20:03
Speaker 2: I just love this spot for this Houston team. Another
20:06
Speaker 2: game we're going to dive into. It's it's going to
20:08
Speaker 2: be the New England. I can't quit them. I know
20:10
Speaker 2: they heard me last week, but it's just it's getting ridiculous.
20:14
Speaker 2: Now it's up to plus three.
20:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no reason I bet New England plus three
20:18
Speaker 1: yesterday as soon as it hit the three.
20:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy.
20:21
Speaker 1: We're gonna we're going to talk about a lot about that,
20:23
Speaker 1: and that might be a game where I might actually
20:26
Speaker 1: extend beyond my normal one unit maybe one. Here we
20:30
Speaker 1: are because because I like I I just I know
20:34
Speaker 1: what I saw and I know what not just what
20:36
Speaker 1: I saw, but I know what the box score showed me.
20:38
Speaker 1: I know what the luck rankings are telling me, and
20:40
Speaker 1: I want to get to that game. I want to
20:42
Speaker 1: get to that game all right. First, Simon, you know them,
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Speaker 1: dollars off last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed before we
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Speaker 1: get to New England. I think that's going to be
21:51
Speaker 1: a passionate conversation for us. Another one that I think
21:54
Speaker 1: we love and I'm feeling stronger and stronger about at
21:57
Speaker 1: Seattle plus five and a half at Detroit. This is like, Look,
22:01
Speaker 1: the Lions were second in the luck rankings as the
22:06
Speaker 1: luckiest team, and look I went back. I went back
22:09
Speaker 1: pretty hard in that game. And the Lions offense only
22:14
Speaker 1: scored fourteen points against a Chris Jones list Chiefs defense.
22:21
Speaker 1: They had to pick six, So I know they're going
22:25
Speaker 1: to be at home. I know this. This this crowd
22:28
Speaker 1: is going to be raucous, but this is over reaction
22:33
Speaker 1: city man.
22:34
Speaker 2: And I honestly think this is a great get right
22:36
Speaker 2: spot for this Detroit offense. Like this, this should be
22:39
Speaker 2: an over Both teams should put up a lot of points.
22:42
Speaker 2: You're going from you know a Chiefs team that these
22:46
Speaker 2: guys were open, they were dropping the passes. I can
22:49
Speaker 2: tell you metcalf Lockett, They're not going to be dropping passes.
22:53
Speaker 2: So a nice spot for Sea. How I get right?
22:56
Speaker 2: This was hyping me up. Chet. We got up to
22:57
Speaker 2: six at one point. I got this at six and
23:00
Speaker 2: then it's come down. I've seen a lot of books
23:02
Speaker 2: move down to four and a half now, So definitely
23:05
Speaker 2: a game where I think you read some crazy stat
23:09
Speaker 2: that I love just because it really catered to taking
23:11
Speaker 2: the Bears, which I knew no matter what, chat was
23:13
Speaker 2: gonna try to some get us on the Bears. But
23:15
Speaker 2: it was what that twenty four to one.
23:17
Speaker 1: Twenty four and one team since twenty twelve, And this
23:20
Speaker 1: is an Evan Abrams No, this was in Brandon Anderson.
23:23
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson talked about this in the Action Network wrap
23:26
Speaker 1: Up podcast that comes out late Sunday early Monday morning.
23:30
Speaker 1: Teams that are off of a double digit loss since
23:32
Speaker 1: twenty twelve against teams that are not off a double
23:36
Speaker 1: digit loss. So it could be a team that lost
23:38
Speaker 1: by nine or a team that won anything of that category,
23:44
Speaker 1: and that double digit loss team is on the road
23:47
Speaker 1: since twenty twelve, twenty four and one against the spread.
23:50
Speaker 1: There are two teams that fit that mold this week,
23:54
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks and the Chicago Bears. So we'll get
23:57
Speaker 1: to the Bears. We're narrowing down our list already.
24:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Seahawks are four and a half, I could
24:03
Speaker 2: see us putting it in. It's just a good number.
24:06
Speaker 2: Anytime we would be down, even if it was by
24:08
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, I would still think of my mind, we
24:09
Speaker 2: could still backdoor this just because the lines. They clearly
24:13
Speaker 2: have gotten better at the pass rush. I just don't
24:15
Speaker 2: think they have good corners. And now they're going up
24:17
Speaker 2: against a really high powered offense with great receivers, so
24:21
Speaker 2: should should be a shootout.
24:23
Speaker 1: This is what makes the contest that we're doing a
24:25
Speaker 1: little bit more challenging than contests we've done in the past,
24:28
Speaker 1: because in the past the lines locked sort of Tuesday Wednesday.
24:31
Speaker 1: These lines are dynamics, so we could have made our
24:34
Speaker 1: bets on Tuesday and locked them in. But if we
24:37
Speaker 1: decided we wanted to change a game because of injuries
24:39
Speaker 1: or whatever, we'd have to undo all the bets and
24:42
Speaker 1: take whatever lines are available. These lines are dynamic right now.
24:45
Speaker 1: Seeattle's a four and a half point dog at bet
24:47
Speaker 1: three six five. But I'm still putting it in right.
24:50
Speaker 2: Now, like it's that I still like that number for them.
24:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now are the three games that I think
24:56
Speaker 1: we're feeling really good about. Bill's nine and a half
25:00
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus three, Seattle plus four and a half. I
25:03
Speaker 1: know you're on the fence about Seattle. I don't know
25:05
Speaker 1: what your problem is there, but whatever, Falcons plus one
25:12
Speaker 1: and a half. The Millman loves it. The wise guys
25:17
Speaker 1: love it. It's down to one. This was my exact
25:20
Speaker 1: decision on Tuesday. Why is Atlanta a home dog against
25:26
Speaker 1: Green Bay? It makes no sense to me. Think about
25:31
Speaker 1: variants for a second. Okay, the Cowboys have a quarterback
25:35
Speaker 1: who's starting his second game, third game, but first year
25:38
Speaker 1: as a full starter. They went against a defense that
25:42
Speaker 1: was horrendous that gave Jordan Love a lot of short fields.
25:48
Speaker 1: We don't know the status of Aaron Jones, we don't
25:50
Speaker 1: know the status of Christian Watson. The Falcons defense is
25:53
Speaker 1: better than the Bears, especially in the secondary. Aj Terrell
25:58
Speaker 1: one of the best cornerbacks in football. And we know
26:02
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith is going to do everything he can to
26:05
Speaker 1: minimize mistakes by his offense, basically by keeping the ball
26:09
Speaker 1: on the ground. Makes no sense to me. The Falcons
26:12
Speaker 1: have ever been underdogs in this game. Yeah, Wise guys
26:18
Speaker 1: agree with me, Simon.
26:19
Speaker 2: They do. They do, but you have to understand a
26:22
Speaker 2: lot of them are agreeing with you. F plus two
26:23
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. So I got up there
26:25
Speaker 2: and now it's been bet down a plus one. I
26:27
Speaker 2: think I still agree, but I was hoping it was
26:30
Speaker 2: gonna get two and a half because that I would
26:32
Speaker 2: agree on. I'd be like, Okay, this is a no brainer.
26:34
Speaker 2: But I'm telling you that motherfucker in the back, des
26:39
Speaker 2: Been Ridder is not real. He's not a real quarterback.
26:42
Speaker 2: Chat So I don't know what the hell to do
26:43
Speaker 2: with it. Like he's driving me crazy. I try to
26:46
Speaker 2: go back to the film and watch it and convince
26:48
Speaker 2: myself that, like, no mean checking back this against the Packers.
26:52
Speaker 2: It's hard. It's a hard pill to swallow. Like he's
26:55
Speaker 2: so he's so bad. Whenever he can make the wrong read,
26:59
Speaker 2: he makes it, remix the set the safe read. He's
27:01
Speaker 2: killing me. So yeah, like again going by the book,
27:07
Speaker 2: we are supposed to take him. Oh god, damn you,
27:10
Speaker 2: Matt Mitch. Matt Mitch just put a stat in Desmond
27:12
Speaker 2: Ridder as a starter at home twenty nine and oh
27:15
Speaker 2: Ad as a pro.
27:16
Speaker 1: In a college.
27:18
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's tough where it's like all the
27:22
Speaker 2: pros are telling me we got to take it. Me
27:24
Speaker 2: and Chad know we got it because it's by the book. Yeah,
27:28
Speaker 2: damn it, Chad. So this is when he's a hot
27:31
Speaker 2: Chad's proba gonna get a hold of me on some dames, like,
27:33
Speaker 2: we got to put it in because I've been betting it.
27:34
Speaker 2: I've been I took the plus two, I took the
27:36
Speaker 2: one and a half. I've teased this game. But yeah,
27:40
Speaker 2: I'm telling you that guy in the back design Rinners
27:43
Speaker 2: is not a real quarterback. We got to bet it,
27:45
Speaker 2: I guess. So it's it's hard where this is kind
27:48
Speaker 2: of a what we talked about, like if if Green
27:51
Speaker 2: Bay starts too, and oh, they could easily win their
27:54
Speaker 2: division and be a playoff team. If Atlanta starts here too,
27:56
Speaker 2: and oh, it could be team that fights for a
27:59
Speaker 2: winning this division in the playoff team. So this is
28:01
Speaker 2: such a huge game. It's really tearing me. But yeah,
28:05
Speaker 2: Chad's right, like, we have to take it in here,
28:08
Speaker 2: and it's just killing me inside to do it.
28:11
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's at some point we're gonna have to put
28:13
Speaker 1: together a sizzle of all the time. Simmon says, I'm right,
28:15
Speaker 1: because it's happening. It's happening so much more often, so
28:20
Speaker 1: much more often. And Evan Abra have just put a
28:23
Speaker 1: great stat up in our in our chat that I'm
28:26
Speaker 1: going to bring up in a little bit that is
28:27
Speaker 1: applicable to a different game that I think is going
28:31
Speaker 1: to make us feel really sick to our stomachs. But yeah,
28:34
Speaker 1: the Falcons are still on the list, all right, duh.
28:38
Speaker 1: Bears opened it for now down to was it two
28:44
Speaker 1: and a half last night when I was doing my research.
28:46
Speaker 1: Wait at night, because I'm dedicated to this podcast. I
28:50
Speaker 1: don't ever stop the Bears right now plus two and
28:54
Speaker 1: a half line's moving, Jesus, don't minus one o five
28:57
Speaker 1: at bet three six five. The Bears are the other
28:59
Speaker 1: team that fit this stat that we talked about for
29:05
Speaker 1: this Seahawks is a double digit loser on the road
29:09
Speaker 1: against a team that did not lose by double digits.
29:12
Speaker 1: But I do want to highlight a couple of things
29:13
Speaker 1: that I said on Tuesday because I think it bears
29:16
Speaker 1: repeating like this this Bears team. So, in addition to
29:21
Speaker 1: the Brandon Anderson stat twenty four and one teams on
29:24
Speaker 1: the road in that position twenty four and one against
29:26
Speaker 1: the spread since twenty twelve, the Bears offense had twenty
29:32
Speaker 1: two first downs more time of possession than the Packers.
29:36
Speaker 1: Also had three turn turnovers and four sacks. Okay, so
29:41
Speaker 1: this offense, well, justin Field's like clearly made massive mistakes.
29:48
Speaker 1: It wasn't as bad as people think. And so meanwhile,
29:53
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay gave up three hundred and forty four passing
29:57
Speaker 1: yards six yards per play, not yards per past attempt
30:03
Speaker 1: six yards per play. Kirk Cousins was thirty three of
30:07
Speaker 1: forty four seven yards per attempt. Minnesota lost that game
30:12
Speaker 1: because they had three turnovers, including Kirk in the red
30:15
Speaker 1: zone at the end of the first half when they
30:17
Speaker 1: could have gone up seventeen to ten. The Bucks, by
30:20
Speaker 1: the way, one, two, three four, fifth luckiest team according
30:25
Speaker 1: to luck rankings in week one. The only question is
30:30
Speaker 1: do you still like the number at two and a half?
30:32
Speaker 1: Would you still bet it? Forget about the contest? Would
30:34
Speaker 1: you bet this number at two and a half?
30:35
Speaker 2: Stuck?
30:36
Speaker 1: You did?
30:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you bet at two and a half. But yeah,
30:38
Speaker 2: we felt great about three, and I was hoping it
30:41
Speaker 2: would keep getting pushed up where the public could be like,
30:43
Speaker 2: keep buying this Bucks team. But their eyes have shifted elsewhere,
30:48
Speaker 2: so they're not getting as much money as I thought
30:49
Speaker 2: they would be. Got. Yeah, pros are going to come
30:52
Speaker 2: in on this Bears team. That's just a good number.
30:54
Speaker 2: They're getting them at a low value. Like people are
30:57
Speaker 2: just off this Bears team now, like just took one week.
31:00
Speaker 2: We're totally off these guys after getting blown out by
31:02
Speaker 2: Green Bay. But you said it, Chad, if you really
31:05
Speaker 2: go through it, it was pretty pretty interesting the numbers
31:09
Speaker 2: looking at that team, they left a lot of players
31:11
Speaker 2: in the field. So hopefully Claypool doesn't play in this game.
31:15
Speaker 2: That guy looks like he needs to sit out and
31:17
Speaker 2: just reevaluate what he wants to do in his life
31:19
Speaker 2: by playing football, because he was sleepwalking through that game.
31:23
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch film, he just wasn't blocking,
31:25
Speaker 2: wasn't running hard on routes. Just a complete embarrassment. Yeah,
31:29
Speaker 2: you'rein't gonna paid millions of dollars play a kids game.
31:32
Speaker 2: And that's that's the kind of attitude he goes out
31:34
Speaker 2: there and plays with. So you know, that's a big
31:37
Speaker 2: deal for a team that needs or wide receivers to block.
31:39
Speaker 2: The Bears like to run the ball and fields like
31:40
Speaker 2: to run the ball, so you need guys who're gonna
31:42
Speaker 2: be blocking on the outside. So from what I've seen,
31:45
Speaker 2: they're playing on not playing him this game, which I
31:46
Speaker 2: think is a big deal for this Bears team. That.
31:49
Speaker 2: You know, they need to bounce back here. We already
31:51
Speaker 2: talked about the staff. They start owing too. You can
31:53
Speaker 2: pack it up. That's that's the Bear season pretty much.
31:55
Speaker 2: So it feels like a huge game for this Bears team.
31:59
Speaker 2: I like it still as a plus two two and
32:01
Speaker 2: a half plus three if you can find it dog.
32:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really interesting what's happened with Claypool. Like the
32:07
Speaker 1: Bears basically gave him a first round pick to get him.
32:10
Speaker 1: They thought he would be the guy that helps justin
32:12
Speaker 1: fields evolve. He hasn't been close to that. I think
32:16
Speaker 1: he got the benefit of the doll last year coming
32:18
Speaker 1: in middle of the season. But look, he's He's was
32:22
Speaker 1: a clear number three behind Darnel Mooney and DJ Moore
32:27
Speaker 1: when the season began. He's basically not on the roster
32:31
Speaker 1: right now.
32:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, horrible trade, horrible.
32:34
Speaker 1: So, look this is getting interesting for us Simon right now, Bills, Tennessee, Seattle, Falcons,
32:44
Speaker 1: Bears all still on our list. That's five and I
32:48
Speaker 1: know for a fact we got four more games, three
32:51
Speaker 1: of which at least two of which we really love.
32:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got too. I definitely think we're going to
32:56
Speaker 2: have in out of so like The five we just
32:58
Speaker 2: gave out are just all games all on embedding.
33:01
Speaker 1: Me too, I've bet all of these games. I'll put
33:04
Speaker 1: them all in the Action Network app. I know there's
33:08
Speaker 1: one game we're going to talk about that will definitely
33:11
Speaker 1: be in there. So something's getting knocked out already. Giants
33:16
Speaker 1: minus five and a half at Arizona. We liked it
33:18
Speaker 1: a lot when it was five. I think this is
33:20
Speaker 1: going to be our survivor pick at least one of them.
33:23
Speaker 1: I would still bet it at five and a half
33:25
Speaker 1: kind of a dead number, so I don't know if
33:29
Speaker 1: it ends up being contest worthy.
33:31
Speaker 2: Now I'm with the public on the Giants. It just
33:33
Speaker 2: feels like a great spot to take this team. So
33:36
Speaker 2: it could be tempted come Sunday if this is four
33:39
Speaker 2: and a half in our contest line. But I could
33:41
Speaker 2: see a game back up to five and a half
33:43
Speaker 2: six by kickoff.
33:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, the next game on our list rams
33:53
Speaker 1: they've moved. The number was eight and a half. Now
33:56
Speaker 1: it's down to seven and a half.
33:58
Speaker 2: And one book still has an eight and a half
33:59
Speaker 2: if you want to go rabbit people. Hopefully that book
34:01
Speaker 2: is in your state. But it's a great number, like
34:04
Speaker 2: I've seen all the numbers. Shanahan owns the Rams. He
34:07
Speaker 2: doesn't lose to them. That's great, Like we're not playing
34:12
Speaker 2: who's gonna win this, straight up, we're playing who's gonna
34:14
Speaker 2: cover the number. So the fact that you could get
34:16
Speaker 2: eight and a half still at a couple of books,
34:18
Speaker 2: that that's a really important number. We talk all the
34:21
Speaker 2: time like people go for two now, like weird numbers
34:24
Speaker 2: land a lot. Eight and a half lands more often
34:26
Speaker 2: than you would realize. So yeah, don't don't get just
34:29
Speaker 2: grabbed a seven and a half. Try to get that
34:31
Speaker 2: eight and a half because it is such a key number.
34:32
Speaker 2: But I just don't know if we'll having this in
34:34
Speaker 2: the contest, just because I could see it getting down
34:36
Speaker 2: to seven. That means it would be six and a
34:38
Speaker 2: half come Sunday morning our contest, and that's no good
34:41
Speaker 2: to us. And we're both playing eight and a half.
34:42
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's pretty surprising that the pros did
34:47
Speaker 2: come in on the Rams, Like I just thought they'd
34:49
Speaker 2: be scared off by this fort nine ers team. But
34:51
Speaker 2: that's just the play here. You're taking a home divisional
34:53
Speaker 2: dog eight and a half points. There's no way, there's
34:59
Speaker 2: no way, we couldn't take this number. So it sucks
35:01
Speaker 2: and moves so much because we can't take a contest,
35:03
Speaker 2: which I was hoping for, and I was going to
35:05
Speaker 2: make my Big Balls Better of the Week, but we're
35:07
Speaker 2: getting We're getting a bad number year. So that's why
35:09
Speaker 2: I'm not going to make it.
35:10
Speaker 1: Listen, we haven't we haven't done a Foxhole and we
35:13
Speaker 1: haven't done a Big Balls.
35:15
Speaker 2: I said both games. I said both the games we're
35:17
Speaker 2: going to do with that. But if you have something
35:19
Speaker 2: else you want to do, you can, you can say it.
35:20
Speaker 2: But I definitely know what those two games are for
35:22
Speaker 2: those two.
35:23
Speaker 1: Well, I we haven't talked about what I think the
35:25
Speaker 1: Big Balls bet should be and so. But but from
35:33
Speaker 1: your perspective, have we mentioned either of the games that
35:37
Speaker 1: we think should be one of those? I don't think
35:39
Speaker 1: we have.
35:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, we mentioned both at the top of the show,
35:41
Speaker 2: but we'll get to it.
35:42
Speaker 1: No, no, no, But I mean we haven't mentioned him since
35:44
Speaker 1: we started talking about like in the body of the show. No, okay, Well,
35:49
Speaker 1: one of them that I think we might want to do,
35:51
Speaker 1: we didn't mention at the top of the show. So, uh,
35:53
Speaker 1: but one of them we're going to talk about right now.
35:55
Speaker 1: I think Pats plus three at home against Miami.
35:59
Speaker 2: Big all bet of the week. Okay, it's gotta be no.
36:05
Speaker 2: No one wants to take this Patriots team this. This
36:07
Speaker 2: is such a scary spot because you're really stepping into
36:10
Speaker 2: it where two in this offense right meet. Really it
36:14
Speaker 2: might be the real deal and we're back in the
36:17
Speaker 2: Patriots team again that we think their defense is much improved,
36:21
Speaker 2: and we saw him last week. Mac Jones looked a
36:22
Speaker 2: lot better. We're gonna learn real quick how important those
36:25
Speaker 2: offensive corners and defensive corniers were to the Eagles because
36:28
Speaker 2: that could have just been matchups that you know, they
36:31
Speaker 2: exploited this Eagles inexperienced coaching staff, and we're not gonna
36:35
Speaker 2: get that here with Miami. Like a lot of these
36:36
Speaker 2: Miami guys. You know, Fangs is a great defensive corner
36:39
Speaker 2: and we've seen McDaniel's offense. It's been incredible for Tua.
36:42
Speaker 2: So to me, this takes some balls. Yeah, we're going
36:45
Speaker 2: against you know, the mice hyped up, pumped up team
36:48
Speaker 2: this week. Miami to a second and MVP. Right now,
36:51
Speaker 2: I'm betting on those sports books. I think it's plus
36:54
Speaker 2: seven to fifty he might be tied with like Mahomes,
36:57
Speaker 2: so little scary bending this team. But we're just how
37:01
Speaker 2: do we not take a divisional home dog in a
37:03
Speaker 2: primetime game in week two and such a good spot
37:06
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, two and a half, I
37:08
Speaker 2: like the Patriots. Now it's three, So it feels like
37:11
Speaker 2: this is going to take some balls. Chat how many
37:13
Speaker 2: people are going to join us on this party.
37:15
Speaker 1: Pros Joe's game. Sixty six percent of the bets on
37:17
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, about sixty percent of the money on the Patriots. Reminder,
37:21
Speaker 1: when I say bets, and I check all this at
37:23
Speaker 1: the Action Network, in the Action Network app and Actionnetwork
37:26
Speaker 1: dot com, it's available for free. The the When I
37:34
Speaker 1: say bets, that's basically the public, the Joe's. When I
37:38
Speaker 1: say money, that is the That is the professionals. And
37:43
Speaker 1: I'm stalling here. I'm hesitating because, no joke, the numbers
37:48
Speaker 1: changed as I was talking. More money just came in
37:51
Speaker 1: on the Patriots. I don't know if that's because we're
37:54
Speaker 1: talking about it, but no joke. It went from like
37:56
Speaker 1: sixty percent to sixty three percent. It flashed up like
37:59
Speaker 1: a little like a little ticker at like a Bloomberg terminal.
38:03
Speaker 1: It just flash, and so it threw me off there
38:06
Speaker 1: for a second, so I apologize.
38:07
Speaker 2: But now I'll say one of the most public books
38:09
Speaker 2: out there, they're showing eighty percent of the bets and
38:11
Speaker 2: eighty two percent of the money is on this Miami team.
38:15
Speaker 2: So it makes sense to publical level them. Because we
38:18
Speaker 2: talked about it. If you believe in Miami, this is a
38:20
Speaker 2: game they should cover and win. If two is that guy,
38:23
Speaker 2: and if not, they won't.
38:25
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, so the paths to me are a must.
38:31
Speaker 1: The game I was going to mention is are big
38:32
Speaker 1: balls which we won't put in the contest the New
38:37
Speaker 1: York Jets.
38:39
Speaker 2: That doesn't take any It doesn't take big balls, though I.
38:42
Speaker 1: Think it does listening like it doesn't take it for us.
38:46
Speaker 1: Of course we're going to bet the Jets.
38:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say that's like everyone's going to be
38:52
Speaker 2: betting the Jets. Though I'd say more people will betting
38:54
Speaker 2: the Jets and more people will be teasing the Cowboys.
38:56
Speaker 2: I feel like most people won't be taking that number. Yeah,
39:01
Speaker 2: because even even as bad as Zach Wilson looked, it's
39:04
Speaker 2: still that's still a top three, top four defense going
39:08
Speaker 2: against McCarthy. So I get where you're coming from. But yeah,
39:13
Speaker 2: I just, I just I don't know that's fair. We
39:19
Speaker 2: could end up with this in the contests. Just we
39:21
Speaker 2: sit here right now. I was just hoping this would
39:22
Speaker 2: get to ten. So yeah, that's that's fair, dude.
39:26
Speaker 1: It may like I'm looking at the numbers right now
39:28
Speaker 1: and fifty five percent of the bets are on the Cowboys,
39:31
Speaker 1: but seventy percent of the money. And when there's that
39:34
Speaker 1: kind of discrepancy, what that tells me is that the
39:36
Speaker 1: public is loading up on the Cowboys in a different
39:42
Speaker 1: kind of way. Normally, when it's the bets on one
39:45
Speaker 1: side the money on the other side, you know, it's
39:47
Speaker 1: a pro joe split. I think this could get to ten,
39:50
Speaker 1: and I think you're looking at it inside out. You're
39:52
Speaker 1: looking at it from a better's point of view. I'm
39:54
Speaker 1: looking at it for more of a public perception point
39:57
Speaker 1: of view. Where the Jets just lost Rogers. They they
40:01
Speaker 1: won on prime time, but the Cowboys beat the Giants
40:05
Speaker 1: by forty points and dominated them in prime time. So
40:09
Speaker 1: from a narrative perspective, the Jets are done and the
40:13
Speaker 1: Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl. So anyone listening
40:15
Speaker 1: to this who doesn't know betting as well would be like,
40:18
Speaker 1: oh my god, that's big balls. You're betting on the Jets.
40:20
Speaker 1: That's what I'm thinking about.
40:23
Speaker 2: And I would also advise people to stay away from
40:25
Speaker 2: this one if you're thinking Dallas money line or taking
40:28
Speaker 2: them a survivor. This just this reeks of a dak
40:32
Speaker 2: meltdown game. And they lose this game out right.
40:35
Speaker 1: Fucking reeks stinks. Here's the other game. So immediately after
40:41
Speaker 1: the Favorite film session, I bet the Browns minus two
40:45
Speaker 1: on the road and it's been my bet. Regret to
40:49
Speaker 1: coin a phrase from Stuckey and Colin Wilson on their
40:52
Speaker 1: podcast Let Meet Just read a stat here teams who
40:55
Speaker 1: opens the underdog and closes the favorite forty four eighty
41:00
Speaker 1: two against the spread since twenty eighteen, by the way,
41:04
Speaker 1: breaking news.
41:07
Speaker 2: Line change.
41:08
Speaker 1: Remember the old days when we had the line change
41:10
Speaker 1: where the line mood while we were talking Atlanta while
41:14
Speaker 1: we were talking flipped from one and a half to
41:17
Speaker 1: minus one during the show. So here's what I think.
41:20
Speaker 1: Between the Patriots getting more money while we're talking in
41:24
Speaker 1: Atlanta moving while we're talking, we are market makers right now, Simon.
41:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, we move numbers.
41:30
Speaker 1: Ched, we move numbers, and Cleveland open as a one
41:33
Speaker 1: point underdog.
41:33
Speaker 2: So yeah, not good. So that's when we'll take out.
41:37
Speaker 2: I've already bet it, like Chad, so I'm gonna ride it.
41:39
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna buy in my position, but we're going
41:41
Speaker 2: against trends going we're doing something we hate to do,
41:44
Speaker 2: which is taking favorites on the road in primetime games
41:47
Speaker 2: after a big win. So I'm going to trust in
41:50
Speaker 2: our future position in my model that Cleveland's better than
41:54
Speaker 2: people are giving them credit for, and tying my boat
41:57
Speaker 2: to Watson and riding it out. But I'll make Chat
42:00
Speaker 2: put this in the contest. We'll leave this one out.
42:02
Speaker 1: We screwed that one up. We screwed the perch we made,
42:04
Speaker 1: and we made a wrong decision.
42:06
Speaker 2: I don't know we got I got a good number.
42:07
Speaker 2: I got them at minus one. Now it's minus two
42:10
Speaker 2: and a half.
42:11
Speaker 1: So oh that's pretty good. I got him at two,
42:13
Speaker 1: and I don't bet him that much longer after you did,
42:15
Speaker 1: so you probably moved it. Fucker. Uh. Can I make
42:19
Speaker 1: a suggestion, I would say, let's make Jets big balls,
42:24
Speaker 1: and let's make Patriots foxhole.
42:28
Speaker 2: All right, we didn't talk about the game. I want
42:31
Speaker 2: to pitch though, all right, Oh go ahead, Houston. Oh
42:35
Speaker 2: my god, that's right. We didn't talk Houston. Okay, to
42:38
Speaker 2: me that that was gonna be a foxhole bet you
42:39
Speaker 2: just because it's it would just be us on the
42:41
Speaker 2: pros like, Okay, Anthony Richardson's list.
42:45
Speaker 1: I loved it on Tuesday. We talked about it on Tuesday.
42:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, it does suck that it's moved from one and
42:49
Speaker 2: a half, but it was one, so you know, I'm
42:53
Speaker 2: hoping in contests we still get one and a half,
42:55
Speaker 2: but we'll see when it closes. But I just I
42:57
Speaker 2: love this spot for Houston, like that that Golds team
43:00
Speaker 2: played incredibly well against the Jaguars, and Anthony Richardson is
43:05
Speaker 2: just getting loved by everyone in the ambling community and
43:08
Speaker 2: the fantasy community. So I look at this matchup and
43:12
Speaker 2: I think I'm getting a home dog in a divisional
43:15
Speaker 2: game with two rookie quarterbacks and two rookie head coaches.
43:19
Speaker 2: We're always going to go towards the home team and
43:21
Speaker 2: the fact that you're getting at a plus number. I
43:23
Speaker 2: told the people on Tuesday show, this was a great
43:25
Speaker 2: Wong teaser. That's what's so annoying They moving it off
43:28
Speaker 2: the one and a half, so they moved it down
43:29
Speaker 2: to plus one. I think I'll keep dropping. Like it
43:32
Speaker 2: just feels like the Pros are going to keep it
43:33
Speaker 2: in this number. So wouldn't be shocked to see Houston
43:37
Speaker 2: closes the favorite come Sunday. But yeah, this is the Jets, Dad,
43:41
Speaker 2: that feels fine if you want to make this or
43:43
Speaker 2: the Jets are foxhole because I like them both, Like
43:46
Speaker 2: I really, I really do like them both. I think
43:48
Speaker 2: you're getting good value on both numbers.
43:49
Speaker 1: Well, I would say, all right, so you want to
43:52
Speaker 1: keep Patriots's big balls?
43:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, because of all the games, that scares me the most.
43:57
Speaker 1: All right, isn't it funny? I'm so I'm not afraid
44:00
Speaker 1: of that game. I feel like this is such a good.
44:03
Speaker 2: Spot for to It looked really good on tape.
44:05
Speaker 1: He looked really good against a poorly coached team.
44:12
Speaker 2: It's true, it's true, but a lot of.
44:14
Speaker 1: Stuff you're not a poorly coached team.
44:16
Speaker 2: A lot of stuff he's doing is like this guy
44:21
Speaker 2: has crazy confidence. Like he was moving up, stepping in
44:23
Speaker 2: the pocket, throwing downfield off one foot, hitting guys in stride,
44:27
Speaker 2: which is like that's Aaron Rodgers stuff, Like, there's just
44:30
Speaker 2: not that many quarterbacks could do that. That's the fear
44:32
Speaker 2: right now is that he's hit that level for me.
44:35
Speaker 2: So that's why it's like, I feel like you're so Nonchalanta,
44:37
Speaker 2: but where me, I'm putting so much money on the Patriots.
44:40
Speaker 2: It's literally every time I'm putting another grand on it,
44:42
Speaker 2: it's like someone stabs me in the stomach. It just
44:44
Speaker 2: hurts where it's like, oh God, I gotta do this,
44:47
Speaker 2: but it's just painful every time. So that's why it
44:49
Speaker 2: just feels like big balls where the public is going
44:51
Speaker 2: to especially if they're chasing. If the public gets slaughtered
44:55
Speaker 2: on Sunday, this could get to three and a half
44:57
Speaker 2: because they are going to come in so heavy on
44:59
Speaker 2: this Miami team. So I really do hope you get
45:01
Speaker 2: three and a half in contest, but I feel like
45:04
Speaker 2: they're tough on these lines, so I feel like they're
45:06
Speaker 2: going to give us two and a half, but I'm
45:07
Speaker 2: hoping we get three and a half.
45:09
Speaker 1: All right, Well, listen, in honor of sort of the
45:12
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of bank you've put on this game, we
45:15
Speaker 1: will make the Patriots plus three our big balls bet
45:19
Speaker 1: of the week, even though I couldn't be more confident.
45:24
Speaker 1: And I don't mean to mush you, but this just
45:26
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't feel that scary to me. I would say, foxhole,
45:30
Speaker 1: Let's go Houston.
45:34
Speaker 2: Let's clog down into the foxhole.
45:38
Speaker 1: Anyone who just looked at final scores thought Houston was
45:42
Speaker 1: terrible where you know, we talked about this on Tuesday.
45:44
Speaker 1: I loved their defense. I was really impressed. I feel
45:48
Speaker 1: like Indy had the right spot against the Jags, who
45:51
Speaker 1: gave them short fields a bunch of times by going
45:53
Speaker 1: forward on short fourth downs, you know, practically in cults territory.
45:58
Speaker 1: So love Houston. Here the last game. I do want
46:04
Speaker 1: to say for the Browns. You know, we've talked about
46:07
Speaker 1: the contest, and the contest is the tiebreaker is really important, okay,
46:13
Speaker 1: and if you want to cash. Last week we had
46:16
Speaker 1: a ten way tie because folks nailed the tiebreaker. So
46:21
Speaker 1: this week we commissioned predictive analyst Billy Ward, one of
46:25
Speaker 1: the creators of the Luck Rankings, to write an article
46:27
Speaker 1: on the tie breaker topic every week starting this week.
46:32
Speaker 1: This week the tiebreaker is longest Pittsburgh reception. The link
46:39
Speaker 1: for that story is in the episode description. It's a
46:42
Speaker 1: very helpful tool if you want to do more than
46:45
Speaker 1: just guests. But don't forget the tiebreaker when you fill
46:48
Speaker 1: out your entries for the favorites contest Favorites dot Actionnetwork
46:53
Speaker 1: dot Com. All right, Simon, so here's what I would say.
46:58
Speaker 1: We're going to get to the money line under round Robin.
47:00
Speaker 1: We're going to get to survivor. Right now, the games
47:05
Speaker 1: that we'll be looking at Bills, Tennessee, Seattle Falcons, Bears, Pats, Jets, Texans.
47:14
Speaker 1: That's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
47:19
Speaker 2: Eight.
47:20
Speaker 1: That's about right. Normally when we go into the Sunday,
47:23
Speaker 1: we've got eight games and there's two or three of
47:25
Speaker 1: that are the last out and two or three of
47:27
Speaker 1: the last in. So I feel good about this sort
47:30
Speaker 1: of tightening up.
47:32
Speaker 2: Now, this feels good. The worst week's are the ones
47:34
Speaker 2: we only love, like three or four games and we
47:35
Speaker 2: got to force up one or two. So yeah, I'm
47:39
Speaker 2: enjoying these days where it feels easy. Chad, so usually
47:43
Speaker 2: a little bit of a red flag, but there's just
47:44
Speaker 2: so many games that we just we don't have a choice,
47:47
Speaker 2: like we just have to play. We're getting a great
47:49
Speaker 2: number played by the book and make these teams prove us,
47:52
Speaker 2: prove it to us why they should be these bigger
47:54
Speaker 2: favorites on the road. So yeah, another week. We just
47:57
Speaker 2: love a lot of home dogs.
47:59
Speaker 1: Money line underdog round robin Tennessee.
48:04
Speaker 2: No brainer. It sucks Atlanta flip because that would have
48:09
Speaker 2: been a nice one. Yeah, gotta go Seahawks. That's a
48:14
Speaker 2: great number. That's such a big number. Houston's kind of
48:19
Speaker 2: cheating because it's only plus one.
48:22
Speaker 1: But I was gonna say Houston, but it felt a
48:24
Speaker 1: little bit weak.
48:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go big on this one. Then let's go
48:28
Speaker 2: Jets too. So we got Jets.
48:31
Speaker 1: Why would you do that?
48:34
Speaker 2: We got Jets, Seahawks, Tennessee, Tennessee Patriots.
48:42
Speaker 1: I like that a lot.
48:45
Speaker 2: And there's a couple I could put here in the
48:47
Speaker 2: five spot that are like small small dogs.
48:53
Speaker 1: I'm trying to find a guy like eight thousand tabs
48:56
Speaker 1: open here, so hold.
48:57
Speaker 2: On, I mean, it could be fun going Jaguars pull
48:59
Speaker 2: up the big up. So I just I just can't
49:01
Speaker 2: see my homes losing back to back.
49:03
Speaker 1: No, we're not. I don't want to jinx that in
49:04
Speaker 1: any way.
49:05
Speaker 2: You want to go. I can't do it. I can't.
49:08
Speaker 2: I can't believe the Panthers might win.
49:12
Speaker 1: It's not a terrible spot.
49:14
Speaker 2: No, you know what, Let's go Commanders.
49:21
Speaker 1: Hold on. Let me give one last review here.
49:25
Speaker 2: Because we can't go Rams even though I really want
49:27
Speaker 2: to believe in it.
49:28
Speaker 1: Dude, why wouldn't we do the Ravens.
49:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Ravens, Ravens because I have minus three. So
49:35
Speaker 2: now I'm the cheer for the Ravens money line too.
49:38
Speaker 2: Goddamn it. But I guess that is the that is
49:39
Speaker 2: for the fans of the show.
49:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, for the fans. Do it for the people,
49:46
Speaker 1: all right, Survivor. We both like the Giants. If we
49:48
Speaker 1: had to choose a second one, I know it sounds crazy.
49:52
Speaker 1: I would do the Broncos, would you, I'd go Bills.
49:56
Speaker 2: Just that. That's that. I gave us Josh Allen sixteen
49:59
Speaker 2: on one as a seven point favorite or more. So,
50:02
Speaker 2: that's a nice stat just to take them. If you
50:05
Speaker 2: just want to get rid of a guy that's in
50:07
Speaker 2: really tough division, Take the Bills, all right?
50:10
Speaker 1: Did I miss anything? We got the money line round Robin,
50:14
Speaker 1: we got the Survivor. We narrowed it down to eight teams.
50:18
Speaker 1: We did sharp calls. I'm looking at my notes. I
50:21
Speaker 1: don't think I missed anything.
50:24
Speaker 2: Nope. We'll see you, beautiful people Sunday night. We will.
50:27
Speaker 1: Please remember you can catch every episode of The Favorites
50:32
Speaker 1: live on YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. If you're
50:37
Speaker 1: watching us on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.
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50:44
Speaker 1: reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by bet three
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Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that are legendary
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Speaker 1: to the ones that flight under the radar. See for
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Speaker 1: yourself when you sign up today with Code Action and
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51:16
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51:24
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51:27
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia
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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and
51:35
Speaker 1: conditions apply. Final recap The Foxhole Bet Houston minus one,
51:40
Speaker 1: Now Big Balls, New England plus three. Exec Decision Atlanta
51:46
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. The Signon says was Buffalo
51:48
Speaker 1: minus eight and a half. The Round Robin Tennessee, Seattle,
51:54
Speaker 1: The Jets, Washington, Baltimore. Before we sign off, reminder that
52:01
Speaker 1: Simon and I will be back with our week two
52:04
Speaker 1: recap episode live on app, on amp and the Action
52:08
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page this Sunday and every Sunday at seven
52:14
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern. This has been the favorite podcast part of
52:19
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I am Chad Milman for Simon Hunter.
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