Latest / UK Column Radio / How China's Military Tech Leap Changes Everything (Ft. TP Huang)

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How China's Military Tech Leap Changes Everything (Ft. TP Huang) · UK Column Radio

0:11
Hello and welcome to the Silk and Steel podcast.
0:14
Once again, I'm your host, Carl Zaat.
0:16
Today we have a returning guest, TP Huang, who is an expert in
0:23
anything China technology related, but is also an expert
0:27
in Chinese military. For the my audience who's not
0:31
familiar with UTP, could you do a very quick brief intro of who
0:37
you are, what you do, etcetera? Yeah, so I actually started just
0:43
on the military side of things. I started following Chinese
0:46
military back in mid 2000s and then I joined the, a Chinese
0:54
military forum called Sino Defence Forum.
0:56
And I've, I've been like a super moderator there ever since.
0:59
So I've been spending the good part of 20 years just studying
1:04
Chinese weapon systems and the technology behind it.
1:07
So I'm this is a topic I'm really very fascinated about.
1:12
Oh, this is a topic we're all very fascinated about,
1:15
especially, I'm sure after the result of the China's victory
1:20
parade that just took place few days ago.
1:23
And This is why I brought you here TP, because China has
1:27
showcased a lot of new weapon platforms and to I, I think we
1:33
surprised many and, and I, I need you, I need your help to
1:37
help us break it down and you know, and what we're seeing
1:41
here. Sure.
1:42
Like I think they showcased quite a few systems, but it's
1:47
such like a broad category. I think it's probably better if
1:50
we just, you know, go through category by category and just
1:54
talk about the, you know, the significance of each of them.
2:00
OK, let's go. Which category would you like to
2:03
start? Well, I think the one that's
2:07
like really struck people's attention to start off are the
2:10
missiles, right? Because the hypersonic missile
2:15
has been one their strong area that everyone knows about for a
2:19
while now. And this particular parade, they
2:23
showcased 4 like YJ missiles that, you know, we really
2:29
haven't seen before, the YJ 15, YJ 17, YJ 19 and YJ 20.
2:36
And they also showed off some of the hypersonic missiles we
2:40
already know about like DF-17 and a new variant of DF 26
2:45
called DF26D. And there was also this new
2:49
hypersonic land based cruise missile called CJ 1000.
2:54
So it overall, it kind of just like showcased a really wide set
3:04
of options that they have to deliver a payload on warhead to
3:09
I guess anything within 3000 kilometers.
3:13
And some of those weapons can go even a lot further than that.
3:16
So it's definitely a very, I guess, very terrifying prospect
3:21
for like some of their adversaries in the region.
3:24
So, so I think like there was a few that was really interesting
3:30
to us, like 1 was the YJ 19 because they made it in such a
3:37
size that it can fit into the torpedo tubes.
3:42
And that is really quite interesting because there's a
3:46
lot of complexity involved in getting the missile to such a,
3:51
you know, dimension that it can fit in the torpedo tube,
3:57
especially something that can fly at hypersonic speed of like
4:02
Mach 6 to Mach 8. That's what the some of the
4:05
Chinese social media account is saying.
4:08
And then the implication of that is quite huge because you could
4:14
have some of these submarines sail out to the ocean and the
4:21
diesel submarines are relatively hard to detect in the middle of
4:27
the ocean when they're not moving.
4:29
And they can essentially just sit there from different angles.
4:38
And then once they somehow they get the coordination where they
4:42
need to attack, then launch these missiles through their,
4:46
their torpedo tubes. And, and it's going to be very
4:52
hard to defend depending on how far you are.
4:54
Because the thing about hypersonic cruise missiles is
4:58
that it can go at once, they get to like hypersonic speed, it can
5:04
stay at that speed for quite a long time, like all the way to
5:09
the end. And it doesn't fly as high of
5:13
the horizon as the ballistic missile.
5:15
So it's a little bit harder to detect.
5:18
And because the terminal speed is still very fast, so it's very
5:22
hard to intercept. So this just gives them like
5:25
another option. And then we also saw the what we
5:29
call the hypersonic glide vehicles that are designed to
5:36
fit the, the VLS. So the, you know, universal
5:40
vertical launch system on the destroyers.
5:45
And that's kind of interesting because they, they're estimated
5:51
to be able to go like 1500 to 2000 kilometers maybe maybe
5:59
that's a little high, but like somewhere in that ballpark.
6:02
And they probably have pretty high speed in the middle part of
6:08
it and maybe a little slower to the end.
6:10
And the HGVs are pretty hard to intercept also.
6:16
And if you can actually pack like, so I think the the other
6:20
missiles that was kind of interesting is like the DF-17
6:23
and DF-20 and they're kind of interesting because they can
6:26
have relatively long range of 1500 kilometers or a little
6:30
more. And also they are going at
6:34
hypersonic speed and they're, they don't follow the ballistic
6:38
missile pass, which is goes pretty high up and their
6:42
ballistic missiles are a little easier to detect.
6:45
The HGVs are a little less easy to detect and intercept than the
6:50
HGVs. And so it's kind of
6:54
consequential when you can have these in your destroyers because
6:59
something like the Zero 55 has 112 tubes and if you load like
7:04
20-30 of these HGVs and they can hit targets from 1500 kilometer
7:09
out, that's a lot of firepower. And, and aside from that, they
7:15
also have this thing called YJ 15, which is an evolution of YJ
7:24
12. So what they did is they took an
7:27
existing missile that was probably had like, you know, 400
7:31
to 500 kilometer range and can go at probably three times the
7:37
speed of sound. And they made it a little more
7:39
compact, smaller. They made it's warhead a little
7:42
smaller and they improves the technology behind it.
7:46
So now I can go like maybe, you know, faster than the Max 3 and
7:52
it can go probably, you know, 500 kilometers again.
7:55
But now you can carry them on your J fifteens.
7:59
So then on your carrier group, your J fifteens can carry two of
8:06
them each or maybe even four of them and then fly off and then
8:09
shoot missiles that are probably faster than, you know, pretty
8:16
much what any other naval like aviation force have access to.
8:21
So like the, so if you're going to shoot something faster on
8:23
Mach 3, it's actually really hard to defend because they're,
8:27
they're not used to seeing, you know, supersonic missiles go
8:31
that fast normally. And so they're so they're also
8:35
pretty lethal. So basically what they have is
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they have the they have the aerial launched really high
8:46
supersonic, they have the the naval surface ship launched
8:53
hypersonic missile, and then they also have the submarine
8:57
launched hypersonic missile. So that just makes it a lot
9:01
harder for defenders to defend because now you're facing
9:06
different missiles from different directions flying
9:09
different profiles, which is a lot harder than if you're just
9:13
dealing with the fastest missile, but it's only coming
9:16
from One Direction and only flying 11 profile.
9:22
So the. Hypersonic cruise missile is
9:24
that is that new because my understanding cruise missile
9:28
usually they you know, they usually don't fly that fast,
9:31
right? They fly like the the speed of
9:33
the airplanes. Is this something that unique to
9:37
China or or is this to other countries possess them as well?
9:42
I'm not aware of any other country with hypersonic cruise
9:45
missiles in production that you can put on the on the ships
9:51
themselves. Like the hypersonic missiles
9:53
itself is pretty much not something that other navies have
9:58
access to. So I think this is actually
10:01
pretty unique in to China. Like some of the other military
10:05
around the world, they have land based launchers of hypersonic
10:09
missiles and they're typically not cruise missiles I think.
10:14
So some of them are just ballistic missiles and other
10:17
other ones are. I think there are some HGVs but
10:21
hypersonic cruise missiles that can go for like a good distance
10:26
that's. That's pretty rare.
10:28
And and I also want to go back to a basics little bit like it's
10:31
my understanding even regular ballistic missile at the end of
10:36
its trajectory it reaches hypersonic speed.
10:39
So what? What distinguish A hypersonic
10:42
missile versus a normal ballistic missile?
10:52
So I think the hypersonic missiles, it's the CCTV actually
11:00
had a recent definition for hypersonic missiles.
11:04
And it's basically something that can go the whole way above
11:08
Mach 5. And it also needs to be able to
11:12
do maneuvers and is relatively, you know, accurate, able to hit
11:16
targets. Like if you look at ballistic
11:18
missiles, right, they fly the ballistic path and most of the
11:23
time it has like I guess an APEC speed at the top and then slows
11:27
down as it comes down a little bit.
11:28
So sometimes even if it's you know goes faster and mock Max 6
11:34
or 7 at some point, it could still slow down by the end,
11:38
depending on like how long range ballistic missile it is.
11:41
But more importantly, it is just not able to do the same kind of
11:46
maneuvers against targets. And it's, you know, CP basically
11:51
CP just measures how accurate the the missile is against
11:57
target. It's just not going to be at the
11:59
same level as a as a what we call a hypersonic.
12:04
Right, so, so ballistic missiles or trajectories fixed once
12:07
they're fired, we can calculate where it's going to land.
12:10
Whereas hypersonic missile they can actually alter their flight
12:15
path right once once they take take flight and and.
12:20
And not only can they alter fly pass, they can, you know, I
12:24
think part of it is that they're able to maneuver in such a way
12:29
that it gets some closer or more accurate to the target.
12:33
Because some of the ballistic missiles, some of the
12:35
intercontinental ballistic missiles and some of the other
12:37
ballistic missiles can also maneuver.
12:39
But I don't we wouldn't normally consider them to be hypersonic
12:44
missiles because they don't. They don't have the same
12:48
accuracy when it comes to attacking the now.
12:52
This missile, how are you? Are you saying they were able to
12:56
readjust their fly path? You know, to, to correct for the
13:01
target? Like does that mean like there's
13:03
somehow linked to maybe satellite intelligence to to to
13:08
to make them self correct their path and and and focus to to
13:14
zoom on the target? I think most of them do have,
13:20
they do have the ability to get updates from satellites.
13:25
I'm not really sure the process behind the mid course guidance
13:29
correction. I I do think that especially
13:33
with something like cruise missiles, it, it can, you know,
13:35
it can change past a lot more than your, your ballistic
13:41
missiles and HGV because it's kind of like just glides applied
13:47
to a certain altitude. It can also maneuver a little
13:50
better than your and are more accurate than your usual
13:54
ballistic missiles. But you know, there are, there
13:56
are some ballistic missiles that they have in service, which are
14:00
also, I guess considered to be hypersonic missiles because like
14:04
the DF 26, because they're pretty much they're, they are.
14:11
I guess they at least they're considered to be in the same
14:14
category just because they're, they're considered to be pretty
14:16
accurate against the, the end target.
14:20
So the, the definition gets a little murky.
14:22
You know, generally speaking, I think the hypersonic missiles,
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regardless of the definitions and some of that, you know,
14:28
maybe I'm a little more liberal about the including some of the
14:31
ballistic missiles in there like the DF 26.
14:34
But as a whole, they, they generally pose a big threat to
14:38
the defense. The CJ 1000.
14:40
That's some, that's not something we've seen before.
14:43
And it is a pretty big missile and it probably has something
14:48
close to like the 3000 kilometer range.
14:51
And it's a hypersonic cruise missile.
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So, you know, you can, it can get to the target pretty
14:57
quickly. It gives them another profile,
14:59
another option against, let's say like a, you know, a naval
15:04
ship from Japan or US that are, you know, inside the second
15:10
island chain. And everyone's heard about the
15:14
DF 17 and 26. So those are the ones that the
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Western analysts know a lot about.
15:22
So this, this, this parade was kind of scary for some of the
15:26
people because it just introduced a whole new selection
15:31
of weapons. That they which?
15:33
Which one is what the Western defense analysts call the Guam
15:36
Killer? You know Guam is the the US
15:40
military base in Pacific. They typically think of the DF
15:43
26 because it has like about a 4000 kilometer range.
15:49
Although they have a new version of new version DF26D, that one
15:53
probably has like a 5000 kilometer range, so it can
15:56
probably hit Australia, the northern Australia and.
15:59
Also but why? Why call it Guam killer?
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Because China possessed ICBM before right?
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I mean like China had ICBM since since 1981.
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What? What makes this DF 26 special?
16:18
So, you know, like in in the actual combat, in actual
16:24
conflict, ideally we'll never get to a situation where we have
16:28
to get to nuclear missiles because once you start launching
16:32
like intercontinental missiles, the other side, there's a good
16:38
chance the other side thinks that a nuclear weapon is coming
16:41
over. So that that's kind of
16:43
dangerous. So, you know, like there's,
16:47
there needs to be clear delineation of like which
16:51
missiles are nuclear tips and which ones are not.
16:53
And there's definitely within, you know, the, the PLA rocket
16:59
force, there's, there's, there's ones that handle nuclear payload
17:05
and there's ones that do not. So in terms of Guam, why Guam
17:09
itself is important is because it's basically it was at least
17:15
considered to be the center of U S S defense against Chinese
17:21
pressure in the West Pacific's because it's kind of a little
17:24
it's a little further away from the China's mainland.
17:28
It's like 2800 kilometer I think from the coast maybe around
17:32
there. And so some of the missile that
17:37
they had before, like DF-17 and DF-16 can't really reach there
17:42
and a lot of their earlier cruise missiles just can't go
17:45
that far. So, you know, they had to
17:50
develop a new series of both ballistic and cruise missiles
17:55
that can go that far. And something like the HH6K was
18:02
launching cruise missile was, you know, part of their arsenal,
18:05
their plans to be able to deliver enough ammunitions and
18:11
warheads against the the Guam base.
18:14
So that was why Guam was always considered to be very important.
18:18
And that's also why, you know, America started to invest in
18:21
building military facilities in northern Australia, in, in, in
18:27
Darwin, because it's, it's leaving a little bit further
18:30
away from China than than Guam is.
18:33
And they're able to, you know, build, expand on the, the
18:39
airfields and the naval bases there.
18:41
So like, you know, America was trying to try to find places
18:45
they can operate at are about 3000 kilometer from China's
18:48
mainland. So that's why DF 726 when it
18:51
gets when they have the 4000 kilometer range missile was you
18:58
know in in large part to deal with this threat.
19:01
Got it. And you know, just the the build
19:04
up of the spaces on Guam, this started back in Bush years.
19:09
You know, I know Donald Rumsfeld and Rumsfeld's idea was to pull
19:14
back from from deployed U.S. military bases in Korea and
19:19
Okinawa and to build up this giant base in Guam that's
19:24
slightly just just out of reach of China.
19:27
But US will still be able to base attack on Chinese target
19:33
from there. So now, now that's they have to
19:36
go back to the drawing board. You know this the Guam is
19:40
considered I think what they call the US call says the second
19:43
island chain. And US, the Chinese aircraft
19:47
carrier groups have already demonstrated they could reach
19:52
around the waters around Guam in the recent exercises.
19:56
And, and do you think this recent Chinese parade had a had
20:01
a impact in that leak? Pentagon reports where a
20:05
Pentagon plan where Pete H sefs said we're going to focus less
20:10
on contain China and more on our back, more on the homeland, more
20:16
on US and and Latin America. I think it's been known for a
20:23
while to the people in the US intelligence that it's basically
20:29
they're doomed in Westpac scenario for a lot of reasons,
20:33
right? Like America is not very focused
20:36
on Asia, despite the so-called Asia pivot and the Guam buildup,
20:41
you know, and they wanted to build up other field in this in
20:44
the area, like the Mariana Islands, I think Chinian,
20:49
there's a couple other ones they wanted to build up.
20:51
But as you can imagine, there's not a lot of people that live in
20:53
these places. So trying to build bases in
20:56
places that join peacetime, you know, in like these environments
21:01
where it takes a lot of effort to actually ship the equipments
21:04
over and actually do construction, America can't
21:06
build bases in America. Like building bases halfway
21:09
across the world is pretty hard for America, right?
21:13
So because of that, you know, all their efforts basically got
21:19
concentrated on Guam. And I think that in general, it
21:24
was known like pretty obvious to the US intelligence after a
21:28
while that the pace of China's missile buildup was far
21:32
outstripping their ability to defend them, to defend these
21:35
bases. And also, you know, America
21:38
can't really concentrate on one theater.
21:40
So he expended like all these missiles, air defense missiles
21:44
in Ukraine and Israel, right? So when you get someone
21:51
ideologically driven to to Neil lips like Joe Biden in power,
21:56
right? Like he has to continue to tell
21:59
the world like, you know, authoritarian democracies versus
22:03
autocracies, Whereas you get like a more of like, I guess a
22:07
realist kind of people into Defense Department.
22:11
They might not, they might hate China, but they're at least
22:14
looking at the situations like this is not going well for us
22:17
here. So we may need to like pull back
22:21
on things a little bit. So I, I think I think they know
22:25
a lot of these weapons before the the parade already.
22:29
It's just like, you know, when they came in, they're like, this
22:33
is a, this is a losing proposition for us.
22:36
That that makes sense. But I, I do remember they did
22:39
develop a try or try to develop a document where they're going
22:43
to build mobile launchers where, you know, the US will be able to
22:48
quickly deploy their, their missile launching force in one
22:53
island, fired a Chinese target and then evacuate and move to a
22:58
different spot. So they don't get, they don't
23:00
get hit. I mean, like, do you think that
23:04
was even realistic? On paper, but in reality, it's
23:11
actually really hard to, you know, get the support for like
23:15
fifth generation fighter jet and like advanced bombers in these
23:20
airfields, right? Because you need certain kind of
23:23
jet fuel, you need certain kind of maintenance stuff.
23:25
You can't just land at F35 and expect it to fly again.
23:29
You need to do work on it. So there's always this mistreat
23:34
that people are wondering why do they just think you can just do
23:39
this? Like now the support is
23:42
required. And I mean, I think that's, I
23:47
think like the people that came up with the plans, they were
23:50
definitely hoping for the best. But, you know, there's some
23:55
reality checks to be concerned about.
23:58
And to be honest, I think it makes sense for them to
24:01
originally plan to build out airfields that are protected in
24:05
places like Tinian and Northern Mariana Islands.
24:08
But you know, the progress on those is very lacking.
24:15
Right. I mean, it seems like they're
24:16
still fighting the last Pacific War, right?
24:19
They still think it's going to be a replay of World War 2.
24:23
But you know, the whole power of balance have shifted.
24:28
I said many times, you know, if they think it's going to be a
24:31
replay of Pacific War, it's going to be the role will be
24:36
reversed. China will be in the role of
24:38
United States in 1941 and US will be in the role of Empire of
24:43
Japan because that's how much the, the the manufacturing power
24:48
has shifted to the east. OK.
24:51
So so can we maybe we can move on from the from the missile
24:55
part? Yeah, I think the the missile
25:00
part is only part of it. I think the the unmanned
25:03
platforms were some of the most interesting stuff.
25:06
So we saw on the parade. If you want, I can talk about
25:10
both the the aircraft and also the the the submarines that we
25:15
saw. Yeah, let's let, let's go, let's
25:16
do it. Yeah.
25:18
So I think the drones, the large drones that we saw really
25:26
surprised me personally quite a bit just because I actually had
25:30
no idea they were that advanced. Like I knew they had some stuff
25:34
planned, but I didn't know if they were that particularly
25:36
advanced. We saw like basically two large
25:40
drones that were somewhat comparable in size to AJ 10,
25:47
which is larger than any of the drones that are in development
25:53
with the US Air Force. So the US Air Force has what
25:57
they call the Collaborative Combat Aircraft Program, which
26:01
are basically drones that are, you know, much larger than your
26:05
FPV's that are intended to fly with your 5th or 6th generation
26:11
aircraft. That's what they call the loyal
26:13
wingman. So you have the manned aircraft
26:17
directing the unmanned aircraft to do whatever.
26:20
And what we saw China display was they showcase some smaller
26:29
drones that probably played a similar role to what American
26:33
envisioned the loyal wingman to look like.
26:37
And then we saw these two large drones, which are J10 sized, and
26:45
we know based on the layout that they can probably fly supersonic
26:49
speed. And it is not out of the
26:50
question that they can do supersonic cruise.
26:53
And they can also have these like tailless ends.
27:02
So, you know, it's very stealthy clearly because they're just
27:09
shaped that way. And basically I would say
27:14
they're built to like higher, you know, stealth standard than
27:20
J35 Even so there in reality, they should be very hard to
27:26
detect and they're built in a way that indicates that they can
27:32
maneuver very quickly. So the thing about humans is
27:35
like we have, you know, bodies. So if if the turn goes too fast,
27:41
then we might think so the real limits are like, you know, how
27:45
much the drones can turn when not drones, aircraft can turn
27:50
when humans are in them, right? You don't really have the same
27:53
limitations when there's no person in them.
27:57
So, so a lot of these like drones that we saw, you know,
28:03
hypothetically speaking, they can turn at much more aggressive
28:08
turn rates than the fighter jet that we're used to see.
28:13
And they're clearly very large and they're intended to be able
28:19
to be controlled by the the man fighters.
28:24
So if you think about it, if you have like AJ 20 at the you're a
28:32
little closer to the back, you might want to have like some
28:37
unmanned fighter in the front that's, you know, that's a
28:42
little more maneuverable. So or just pretty maneuverable.
28:46
So when it encounters like a adversary F35, it can it can
28:54
engage that aircraft in combat and forces that aircraft to use
29:00
a lot of energy to to fight it. So and expose itself.
29:05
So that, you know, like a lot of this stuff is still hypothetical
29:09
because the PLA itself right now, it's probably actively
29:16
testing out these drones to see the best way to use them.
29:19
So everything I say, just a hypothetical and I'm sure it
29:22
will turn entirely different than what I actually speculate.
29:25
But the idea is it gives you a lot of options out there in how
29:32
it can affect the battlefield, and nobody else is even
29:38
developing these things at the moment.
29:40
So you're saying that these drones, their role is to be
29:44
fighters? They'll be They're fighter
29:46
drones. Yeah.
29:48
So we first saw like a trace of this in 2013 when there was a
29:54
model called Dark Sword in Chinese and Jian.
29:58
And it was kind of surprising at the time because we had, that
30:03
was the first time we saw like a more like a fighter jet concept
30:07
kind of drone. And it was, it had canards on
30:13
the side and it had a layout that would indicate that you can
30:15
do supersonic speeds. And it was look quite stealthy.
30:20
But the ones that we saw like this in the parade was even
30:25
stealthier because they don't have the tail and they don't
30:29
have the canards or anything. It looks very, very advanced.
30:34
Oh, yeah. Like, you know, we, we first saw
30:36
that concept back in 2013. We just didn't hear anything
30:40
more about this topic until recently when we saw two of
30:43
them. And and they already already
30:45
have serial numbers. So evidently they're, they're
30:49
being tested somewhere, most likely in the somewhere in
30:53
Xinjiang. So it's way, way away from the,
30:55
you know, Western intelligence. You can only see them probably
30:58
through satellites. And my, my guess is, you know,
31:03
the PLA is using them to see how best to develop doctrines on how
31:11
best to use them in combat at the moment.
31:14
And they also just have the J20S.
31:17
So the two seater version of the J20 go into service.
31:20
And when you have two seater aircraft, it gives you like a
31:23
second operator whose job is concentrate on controlling these
31:29
drones to fully utilize. So this so you all you have an
31:36
aircraft and you have drones that you can develop tactics
31:39
with now. This is like the Macross stuff.
31:43
You know, I, I remember 20. Was it 20 years ago.
31:47
I, I, I back in college, I watched the anime Macross Plus
31:51
and you know that that that was with, with the drone fighters
31:56
fighting the human, human fighters.
31:59
I mean, like looks like that's, that's going to be reality in
32:02
like next few years. It's already happening in PLA
32:08
exercises, actually, according to like according to one of the
32:15
podcasts that talks about these things, they're saying that
32:19
you're already having cases where the unmanned drones are
32:24
scoring hits against fighter jets.
32:28
Wow, wow. We're we're really moving
32:31
quickly here like this. This is the kind of thing I
32:35
thought was sci-fi 2025 years ago.
32:38
Like, I don't know how how much of that is hyperbole, but like,
32:42
you know what the scenarios that in which they did this under.
32:45
But it's it was really surprising to me why when I
32:48
heard about this, because the first concept was they're moving
32:53
way faster on this than I expected.
32:55
And the and the technology behind this is probably moving
33:00
faster than what a lot of people have anticipated by this point,
33:04
because people up to this point aren't really expecting that the
33:08
drones that they're controlling to do that to be fighter jets
33:11
itself, right? Like we're expecting the drones
33:13
to, you know, maybe attack some ground targets or go after some
33:17
easier target in the air. And they're just there as like a
33:22
bomb truck, You know, they, they're actually just to launch
33:24
the missile. And if and if they get spotted
33:28
and get shot down, it's no big deal.
33:30
But the, the PLA is moving like a they're like, we have so many
33:37
aerospace engineers. We're going to do those, those
33:40
stupid drones and we're going to do these super drones that, that
33:45
are just awesome. And then we're going to testing,
33:49
selling our ranges with our huge swaths of engineers until we get
33:52
this right. And then you can't mess with us.
33:57
That reminds me that there's recently launched a a new
34:02
amphibious assault ships this one right And that's this one
34:05
looks like it's designed to be a dual launching platform, no?
34:11
Yeah. So we actually also saw the
34:13
aircraft design for that. It's called GJ 21.
34:18
So in the 2019 parade, they had a what they displayed something
34:22
they called GJ 11, which was more designed for the Air Force.
34:28
So this GJ 21 is actually designed more for the, you know,
34:32
the Zero 76 to start off. And it's kind of interesting
34:36
because they're just expecting this, which is extremely
34:42
stealthy. Like if you look at it, it's
34:44
what we call flywheel design and it can fly to the target, drop
34:48
the bombs. And against most, most
34:52
adversaries, I would imagine it's very hard for them to
34:55
detect something this stealthy and do the tax and then fly
35:00
back. So yeah, so they, they have,
35:05
they have they, they. And it looks like that is also
35:08
being tested out, you know, being evaluated.
35:10
There's, they're also figuring out how to use it because when
35:15
you have both types zero 76 and you have your carrier groups,
35:21
you know, they have different missions obviously, but how you
35:25
want to utilize these assets, I think the PLA is going to have
35:29
to take some time to figure out because they have a lot of toys.
35:33
So they need to figure out how to use them.
35:35
But what I want to point out is that, you know, current time,
35:41
the Chinese Air Force right now have at least two six generation
35:48
fighter jets. They have probably 5 or 6
35:53
advanced drone concept that they're actively flying and
35:57
testing out. Whereas the US Air Force has one
36:01
project that's a fighter and they have two drone projects
36:06
which are not as impressive. So this just shows you like, you
36:09
know, the, the, the engineering differences between what the US
36:14
has access to and what China has access to.
36:18
Is that, is that just a matter of numbers like China just have
36:22
more engineers or or China just devoted more funding to this or
36:26
or actually no, US has way more US defense budget is way larger,
36:31
but it's Chinese. It seems Chinese funding defense
36:37
budget is lot more efficiently deployed, right?
36:41
Yeah. So when J35A came out like late
36:45
last year, one thing that they mentioned was that the average
36:49
age of the core engineering team for the project was like 33.
36:53
Wow. So it's a very young and very
36:56
energized engineering team. And whereas if you look at the
37:00
the US aerospace industry, right, the last major project
37:05
that Boeing did of any kind was 77.
37:10
That's the last major new project it did.
37:14
It hasn't really done a major fighter jet project for a long
37:17
time. So just in terms of like people
37:21
that have experience in designing and developing new
37:24
aircraft, you know, the, the Chinese aerospace industry is
37:29
way ahead on that one, which is kind of surprising when you
37:32
consider like this is probably the one area where China should
37:37
be nominally be behind America. Because, you know, America does
37:41
have Boeing and, and the China's commercial aviation project
37:46
isn't as far along. But because it has had these
37:50
like development teams that's been working on J10 and Flankers
37:56
for like 20-30 years. And then they move down to J20
37:59
and J35A. So it's it's pretty clear that
38:04
they have a pretty good pipeline in training the next generation
38:07
of engineers and these engineers are now, you know, developing a
38:12
lot of really advanced designs. Now what?
38:18
What what do you have to say to the the claim that, oh, Chinese,
38:24
they just copy, you know, they're, they're just, they're
38:26
just stole. They just stole the American
38:28
designs. They just copied everything.
38:32
I mean, you can't really look at the two humongous drone that
38:36
they have and say that they copied anyone because there's
38:39
those those concepts are just not anywhere else to be found in
38:43
this world right now. And you know, if you look at the
38:45
J 36, it's a very, it's a very innovative design.
38:50
Let's put it that way. Nobody's thinking about doing 3
38:53
engines with two on the side and 1 on the top right.
38:56
So it's, they're definitely, they're definitely, you know,
39:01
pushing the boundaries with a lot of new designs and they have
39:04
a lot of engineers and the supply chain is quite
39:09
impressive. Like a lot of it really invites
39:10
me of just generally China's any other industry where they, you
39:15
know, slowly build up the supply chain.
39:18
And once they build up the supply chain and they have this
39:21
huge pool of engineers, they can just, you know, iterate through
39:24
processes like much faster than anyone else.
39:28
So like this, if people want us to talk about DeepSeek moment
39:31
for military industrial complex, this should be it because
39:35
nobody's expecting to see this many drones.
39:38
Like, you know, The funny thing was the war zone originally, it
39:41
was getting really excited to talk about how many drones that
39:44
China has. And when the parade came out, no
39:46
more articles on because I'm pretty sure they looked at it
39:49
and they're like, OK, America doesn't have anything that looks
39:52
like that, so let's just not talk about this.
39:58
I, I, I, I thought I was going to give them a, a, a, a, you
40:02
know, a benefit of doubt. I thought maybe these are too
40:04
many Jones. They're going to have to some
40:06
time to process all that information.
40:10
But that's why we we have you here for TP to help us break it
40:13
up. Yeah, you don't.
40:15
You can't hurt the feelings too much.
40:16
So you just let's give them a little more time on that one.
40:22
All right, are we are we do we have a wrap on drones and we can
40:27
move on for to to the next? Next Yeah, I think the
40:30
submarines were really interesting too because you know
40:33
like we've seen what the UUV's on man underwater vehicles.
40:38
So the submarine drones for a while now, and this was like the
40:42
first time that we actually saw the that mean displayed in
40:47
parade. And they have these huge drones
40:50
like, you know, that can they have the one that is supposed to
40:55
be able to lay mines. And we had another one that's
41:02
more like has a lot of sensors on there.
41:06
And they they're both pretty large.
41:08
And so you'd imagine that they can they can stay in the water
41:13
for a while. And you know, when people ask
41:16
what is so important about drones, this this important part
41:19
about drones is that you can build as many of them and you
41:23
don't have to worry about training the people to actually
41:28
operate them, right? So there's no limitations in
41:32
terms of finding enough people to be willing to spend days
41:37
after days in the water and not having touch with their family.
41:41
So this actually adds a lot of flexibility in how they can
41:45
deploy like large number of these underwater vehicles around
41:53
China. And I think the idea is like
41:56
when you have enough of the underwater sensors and nodes,
42:01
you have a much better situation awareness in the water.
42:05
Against modern submarines, the best way to detect them is just
42:08
having as many water sensors in the water in that area as
42:12
possible and then network them together so that once you do
42:17
detect it, then you can pass a lot of the information and then
42:21
you can send over the aircraft or the helicopter to actually
42:24
attack them. So that's why, you know, against
42:29
the submarine threat, having a lot of underwater nodes is very
42:33
important. That reminds me, do you think
42:38
China took any lessons from the Ukraine war that's going on?
42:42
Because you know, like the Ukraine war is like a real
42:46
example of kind of the 21st century Modern Warfare that's
42:51
been fought by near peer adversaries, right?
42:56
And then there were also a lot of autonomous units being used,
43:03
like whether aerial drones or naval drones.
43:07
Do do you think China incorporate any lessons from the
43:12
Ukrainian war into their their designs?
43:15
I think the the most evident place where they took the
43:18
Ukraine conflict into design is actually just looking at the
43:22
ground forces they changes that they displayed.
43:26
The new Type 100 is pretty clearly developed or designed
43:31
with the need to combat drone swarms in mind, because it's
43:36
very much about like having a whole bunch of sensors.
43:40
It's no longer about, you know, the traditional armor combat.
43:45
And I'm not too familiar with land warfare in general.
43:48
But my view of the how people did tanks in the back in the in
43:53
the past is just basically having the best armor you can
43:57
get and having the best round that you can use to penetrate
44:03
armor. Whereas now that you're facing
44:08
the the drone threat, what you actually need to be able to do
44:12
is use information warfare to link together all the sensors.
44:17
So you can detect enemy drones, enemy artillery or enemy armored
44:26
vehicles from further out and then attack them.
44:30
And you might not be your own vehicle to attack them right?
44:33
Like it could be you detect the drone from a few kilometer out,
44:38
then you direct it to the air defense unit FK 3000 with its
44:45
micro missiles, and then it can attack the drones with it so
44:48
that it doesn't get too close to your tank.
44:51
Or your drone detects a tank from a little further out than
44:58
you and then one of your armored vehicle can then send you know,
45:03
anti tank missile over there to attack it.
45:08
And if you look at the Chinese vehicles there, it looks like
45:13
they took the entire like EV revolution and put the military
45:17
version of it out there because they all have a lot of sensors
45:21
around there and they're all using hybrid technology.
45:25
And so that they're all very quiet.
45:27
And then they also can have lower heat signatures and they
45:34
all have like higher power generation capabilities.
45:37
So all that power generation can, can supply the power needed
45:42
for all the sensors. And you know, in the future, if
45:47
you want to add like lasers to them, you can.
45:53
So that's kind of the interesting part.
45:55
And you probably saw the humongous laser they had in the,
45:58
in the parade also. That thing looked really funny.
46:02
Yes, yes, let's talk about the laser weapons.
46:04
I I'm, I'm curious about the laser weapons, you know, like
46:08
those those kind of things before you saw only in like
46:11
James Bond or Austin Power movies.
46:14
What what, what, what are they, what do they do?
46:17
What they're supposed to be designed for.
46:21
I think generally speaking, they're just supposed to be
46:25
designed to for the Navy, for the Navy in this case, to
46:28
probably shoot down incoming drones from like a certain
46:32
distance out or even I think because the one that we saw in
46:36
the parade was pretty large. It needs to be able to also
46:40
shoot down anti shipping missiles so that it can provide
46:49
a last line of defense against missiles attacking it.
46:52
So at first, you know, you try to shoot it down with your
46:54
longer range missiles. If it doesn't get if you can't
46:57
get a shoot shot down, then you use your short range missiles.
47:00
And if you still can't get it down, then you use the lasers at
47:04
the end. So that's kind of the idea
47:07
behind the lasers and you know, like they have the land warfare
47:10
version also. Those are probably more to
47:14
target just the drone swarms and if you saw, they also have the
47:17
microwave weapons which they first showcased in the Druhai
47:20
air show. And those can probably get the
47:24
drones down from like you know, 2 kilometer out and they can fry
47:30
a bunch of them. And the laser is kind of
47:33
interesting just because the technology behind it has really
47:38
improved in the past couple years.
47:42
And a lot of that also is just driven by various new technology
47:46
that China is developing. You know, there's the, there's
47:51
the laser communication that they're working on, there's the
47:55
Lidars that they work on. But a lot of it is really just
48:01
using the right materials, using the right power generation.
48:05
And, and you're seeing that like in the weapon system that they
48:09
trotted out because you're able to efficiently utilize all this
48:14
power and to actually actually focus the beam and bring down
48:19
targets. You know, like when you laser
48:22
something, with enough time it will come down.
48:25
That's kind of the idea. Speaking of lasers, whatever
48:30
happened to rail guns? Because I remember China was
48:33
testing rail gun for a while and then then there's not no more
48:39
news coming out of that. And I think recently I saw Japan
48:42
was also testing real guns. Is that still ongoing?
48:46
Is that still a thing or they just decide it's no, it's not
48:50
worth the effort? My guess is that they probably
48:54
still have the program going on going because they they have the
48:57
enough bandwidth to pretty much work on every project that they
49:01
want to. Like that's just, you know, when
49:03
you have overcapacity in engineers, you can just do that.
49:07
And I think they probably didn't display it because it's just not
49:13
ready to to be displayed right now.
49:15
Like a lot of the stuff that they displayed have been in
49:20
service for a few years now. You know, so obviously some of
49:24
the stuff like the drones, they're they're relatively new
49:27
and we're not going to see them in large numbers until later
49:29
that those are just more to like showcase, you know, China's
49:34
current on man warfare prowess to the rest of the because you
49:37
impress a lot of people with lasers on men, robotic looking
49:40
stuff, right? So and but yeah, like I think, I
49:46
think they're, I think it's still on a lot of the other
49:49
stuff is that you read about they're probably still ongoing,
49:52
they just haven't been able to put into production yet.
50:00
So what we saw in the parade is actually products that has been
50:04
serviced, that been serviced in Commission.
50:08
They're not prototypes. I think some of the drones are
50:14
probably like, they're technically in service, but
50:17
they're still more of like a testing and evaluation phase,
50:21
like they're still trying to figure out how to use them.
50:23
But most of the weapon system are actually, you know, already
50:28
in service. So, you know, I don't really
50:30
believe this stuff about them. Showcase things, prototypes that
50:34
don't work at the parade. I think most of it is actually
50:37
in service. Wow.
50:42
Yeah, like I guess some of the more scientific stuff, they're
50:46
probably still trying to figure out how to use it.
50:48
So it might take them a few years to figure out how to use
50:52
it and decide if they want to mass produce it or not.
50:56
But they are being evaluated somewhere.
50:59
Yeah, I mean, this is my argument for why the, the the
51:04
the Pentagon 2027 deadline for China's quote, UN quote invasion
51:11
of Taiwan is bogus because China just need to wait until 2030.
51:15
They will even have more firepower and more goodies.
51:19
It's why why 2027? That's just an arbitrary date.
51:24
Anything else? Any other areas you want to
51:27
cover? I mean, I think generally
51:30
speaking it was very impressive. Like even a lot of the stuff
51:33
that they, they displayed for the, you know, the Air Force was
51:37
kind of interesting and the, they had their new, I guess new
51:45
generation of aircraft from the, they always start off with
51:49
AJ16D, like electronic warfare aircraft, followed by the J20
51:54
and the J20A and J20S. And the J35A kind of is kind of
51:59
like showcasing we have these latest 5th generation aircraft
52:03
along with these new electronic warfare aircraft that, you know,
52:07
makes them pretty much invisible.
52:10
And yeah, go ahead. I have.
52:13
I have a question. Actually, China also showcased
52:16
some anti ballistic missile systems.
52:20
I was actually surprised to see that because you know, we know
52:24
the United States was a pioneer in the anti ballistic missile
52:29
program. But you know, from what we saw
52:32
in the 12 day Israel Iran war, even you know, Israel had the
52:37
most advanced, most sophisticated layer ballistic
52:41
defense. You know, they had, they had
52:43
aircraft shooting Dung Jones in inside airspace of Serbia,
52:48
inside airspace of Syria and, and, and Jordan.
52:53
And then they have the fat system shooting down Iranian
52:57
missiles and they have Americans Asia system from U.S.
53:02
Navy station in Mediterranean shooting down Iranian missile.
53:06
Then they, they have Israel's own Iron Dome and David Sling
53:10
and all that and Iranian, Iranian missiles still find, you
53:16
know, still enough of them made through and find their target.
53:20
So, so missile defence is really, really hard to do,
53:23
especially you are faced with a huge number of missiles and but,
53:28
but, but, but, but, but it looks like China is also investing in
53:33
its own anti ballistic missile defence.
53:35
Can you talk a little bit about that?
53:37
Yeah, I think like, you know, ballistic missile defence is
53:41
generally very expensive, right? You're not going to get the
53:45
right price ratios when you talk about offensive versus defensive
53:50
because you know you need a better missile to intercept the
53:54
missile that's coming over. So that's why it's always been
53:57
hard. But when you have important
54:01
assets in your Navy to protect and it could face ballistic
54:08
missiles coming over, you just need to have some to protect
54:11
your carrier groups. And you know, like, I don't
54:16
hope, I hope we never get to this.
54:17
But you know, if, if a war between China and India breaks
54:20
out and you have to worry about Indian nuclear weapons, for
54:25
example, then you need to have some form of ballistic missile
54:30
defense for your major cities to defend against OSA, to defend
54:35
against OSA. I, I don't, I don't think, I
54:38
don't think there's going to be that kind of war between China
54:41
and India, but I get your point, but I don't think.
54:45
My point is you need to protect the really important targets.
54:48
I agree, which if you let you know, hopefully we don't get to
54:53
a situation where that happens. But you're never going to
54:57
protect, intercept 100% of really good missiles.
55:01
Like if you face really good missiles and if there's enough
55:03
of them coming over, you're just not going to intercept all of
55:05
them. Like, I'm sorry to tell people
55:07
that, but you know, China's a big country also, right?
55:11
Like you can't protect all the rural areas.
55:14
So, you know, you need like these really good missiles to
55:18
protect your important military assets and also your population
55:21
centers and your industrial centers clearly.
55:25
So they need that. Anything else?
55:27
Yeah, like I, I, I just, I, I just think it was very important
55:30
to see like a lot of the, the technology come out.
55:34
I mean, the laser stuff was very fascinating.
55:36
The unmanned technology that they showcase was way beyond
55:40
anything else that we've seen from other countries up to this
55:43
point. The the hypersonic missiles that
55:45
we saw were like like a couple generations ahead of everyone
55:50
else, right. So they're very ahead in these
55:52
areas and the Air Force that they have currently is also
55:59
probably, you know, the second largest in terms of size of
56:02
fifth generation and and doctrine wise, you know, they're
56:08
probably right up there with America in terms of like, you
56:10
know, fighting modern air warfare.
56:12
And it's very important to think about this, that an aircraft
56:17
agency that they don't even care about, they don't even display
56:20
in their own air air show, you know, was able to shoot down
56:24
pretty much every Indian aircraft.
56:27
And, you know, it came across so like it was that just showcase,
56:31
you know, how good these Chinese aircraft is in terms of sensor
56:38
fusion and being able to fight Modern Warfare.
56:43
That reminds me, AWAC seems to be very important in the Chinese
56:48
aerial combat doctrine, you know, even doing even in the
56:52
Pakistani India conflict, you know, a wax play a role in
56:55
railing targets to the J10C fighters.
56:59
And we saw some, you know, China displaced some of their own
57:03
indigenous, develop a wax plane during the parade, right?
57:07
Yeah, yeah, I think we saw the the KJ 600 definitely and I
57:13
think we saw the KJ 500 also. I don't remember if we saw the
57:16
KJ 3000 or not, but the KJ 600 is kinda important just because
57:23
you need it for the carrier groups.
57:27
And if they were to, you know, eventually send the carrier
57:31
group out. And they really need something
57:34
like KJ 600 to do the command and control, to do the advanced
57:38
early warning and to do the electronic warfare and all all
57:42
that jazz. And another really important
57:45
aircraft that they showcase with the J15DT, which is the, the
57:50
electronic warfare version of the J15 key, so it can be
57:55
launched off the, the catapult and the, the electronic warfare
58:00
aircraft are very important. Like, you know, the the PLA has
58:04
invested a lot of money into those things and it they're also
58:09
very hard because you need to stick a lot of equipment inside
58:15
them and they still need to be able to take a fly off from an
58:19
aircraft carrier. So that's why some of these
58:22
projects has taken so long to be fully developed.
58:26
And if you look at the parade, they always have the electronic
58:31
warfare aircraft flying in the front that showcases ahead of
58:35
the other fighters. That just showcases how much
58:37
highly they think of it. I'm very impressed with how far
58:42
China has come in the electronic warfare area because I remember
58:47
in the old days, like back in the 80s, nineties, 2000, what
58:52
they did was they had these basically Soviet era airframes
58:59
and China was just trying to stick in like Western electronic
59:05
warfare system into them. But but by now I guess like
59:09
China has its only indigenous electronic warfare system,
59:13
right? I mean like the like they don't.
59:16
I'm assuming they don't no longer rely on Western suppliers
59:20
for their electronic warfare parts, right?
59:25
You know, when you have the leading telecom provider in the
59:28
world in Huawei, you know, makes all these radio frequency
59:32
related applications, which is generally you know what
59:35
electronic warfare is basically it's to disrupt the enemy
59:41
communications and figuring out where they're from and then
59:45
trying to spoof them. That's like that is what telecom
59:52
companies have to do themselves in all their development.
59:55
So when you have when you have entities like that, you have a
1:00:00
huge supply chain, which then you can build up all to develop
1:00:04
modern electronic warfare equipment.
1:00:06
So that's why they got so good at this stuff and that's why
1:00:10
like you know, U.S. government was very anti Huawei for so.
1:00:17
That's a very good point. Wow.
1:00:20
I think we cover a whole wide area of the the weapons display
1:00:27
on the parade. Did did we miss anything?
1:00:28
Is there any particular thing that you felt we need to talk
1:00:31
about? No, I think, I think that pretty
1:00:34
much covers all the important ones.
1:00:40
All right. Well, thank you very much TP for
1:00:43
for coming to our show to explain about the latest advance
1:00:47
of Chinese military as it was displayed during the latest
1:00:51
victory parade. If people want to find you and
1:00:54
follow your writings, where would they go?
1:00:57
Yeah, so you can find me at TP Huang on X or Twitter or you can
1:01:02
find me on Sub Stack under TP Huang.
1:01:05
Also I post a lot on Twitter normally.
1:01:13
OK, so there you have it. Go go subscribe to TP on both
1:01:17
Twitter and sub stack. You know he's a a treasure trove
1:01:21
of information on anything Chinese tech related.
1:01:25
And, and thank you again TP for making the time to join us and
1:01:29
thank everyone for for tuning in.
1:01:32
Until next time.