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The Favorites - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
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  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am
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  Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter, and os im In.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: You know I'm so excited for today. You know, it's
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite days. It's one of my favorite
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  Speaker 1: days of the year. It's one of my favorite episodes
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  Speaker 1: that we do every year. I get to talk to
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  Speaker 1: my favorite and you will guess he's truly become my bff.
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  Speaker 1: We talk even beyond the show.
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  Speaker 3: It's true.
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  Speaker 1: It's a true Hollywood insider, a top talent manager at
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Mosaic in Los Angeles, a man named one of the
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: forty most powerful people in comedy by The Hollywood Reporter.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Most importantly, he's one of America's true Academy Awards savants
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: who can effortlessly rattle off every major category nominee across
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: every year. He's our favorite kind of Sickoh, He's Michael Lasker.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show. Laskar.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Thank you. It's great to be back with you guys.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Thanks Chad, Thanks Simon. I want to point out that
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: you're you're reporting on a Hollywood Reporter issue that is
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: like maybe seven or eight years old. Points.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I liked that it's in there. Every single year we
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: do it. And I remember when you first came on
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: and we mentioned it. You very humbly try to distract
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: from the mention because at that point it was like,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know, a year or two old. So at
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: this point it is like five six years old. Matt
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Mitchell continues to put it in there. He loves to
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: put it in there. He thinks it brings a lot
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: of credibility and grount no.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: We should well Matt Mitchell, He's our guru. He knows
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: going on, guys, how are you? I mean, by the way,
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna just say not to not to immediately take
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: over the pod, but I'm going to say what I
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: think is very exciting and must be super exciting for
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: you guys. This is a great year for the Oscars.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: This is a year with a lot of suspense. I mean,
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: last year, of course, Oppenheimer was like mowing everybody down.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: The previous year, everything everywhere was like on its way
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: towards the end. They're like, I don't know if I'm
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: gonna be right today. There's a lot of good races still,
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: let's break him down. But I mean, I would think,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, you guys are the experts, like there's a
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: way to actually make some money this year.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I think there is going to be. It's really interesting
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: that we're starting to see a lot of sort of
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: movement in the markets just because some of the awards
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: have been so inconsistent. There have been some controversies. We're
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: going to get into all of it as a reminder.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six y
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  Speaker 1: before we dive in another reminder, you can officially RSVP
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  Speaker 1: for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago. Let's
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  Speaker 1: in this episode's description or just Google Favorites Live Event Chicago. Simon.
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  Speaker 1: I'm already losing sleep over like people coming to this thing.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I just wanted to.
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  Speaker 3: Know, like, how big is this place? What do we
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  Speaker 3: have to fill here?
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  Speaker 1: It's it's a decent size. We got it, we got it.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: We gotta get some people in there. That's all I'm saying.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And I feel extra pressure being from Chicago. Like I've
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: already texted, like you know, you got different text chains
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and stuff, and I got a text chain with all
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: my friends that I went to college with to Indiana
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  Speaker 1: with who all live in Chicago. I'm like, please come,
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  Speaker 1: let's make it a reunion. Tell all your kids and
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  Speaker 1: tell all your friends, Like, let's just fill this room.
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  Speaker 2: Heyay, you're gota fudge numbers. I try to bring in
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: twenty five relatives. That's what my move was in the
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia one.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: So oh my god, I like every one of my
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: dad's eighty year old friends. They're going to be turning out,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: that's all. We'll get them a special room. All right,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We're ready to dig in here where we're gonna get
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: We're going to focus on the eight major categories. Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Supporting Actor, actress, Screenplay, Original screenplay, Adapted screenplay. This will
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: be fun because Lasker, you and I we spoke in
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: December for a little while late in December, and we
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: went through the odds, like on prediction markets, and we
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: talked about sort of what the markets were saying and
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you gave me your best instincts of what you were hearing, seeing, wondering, thinking,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: based on your expertise through a bunch of categories. So
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I tried to remember having not taken notes on that call,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: because you're my bff, and I don't take notes on
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: those calls.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: I know we just were just like staring at each
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: other's eyes, even though we're not even We weren't even facetiming.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: No, no, I was just thinking about your face. So
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the ones I remember specifically were Best Director and Best
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Supporting Actress. I added context to those at least I'm
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: gonna try. But let's start with Best Actress. Okay, this
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: one has had so much controversy because Carla Sophia Guess Gohone,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the nominee from Amelia Perez, has basically tweeted herself out
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: of the running. Do you want to explain? Do you
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: want me to explain? Do you want to give your
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: take on so well.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: The take that I would give, and you know not to,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: you know, not to wade into politics. I think it's
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: actually weirdly irrelevant because I really liked Emilia Prez and
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: I thought she was excellent in the movie. I don't.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: I never thought she was going to win. So yes,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: it was a very weird classic Hollywood meltdown that the
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: entire town watched in real time. And I talked to
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: people associated with Netflix who were basically like, we've never
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: seen anything like it, Like, I mean, she really really
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: just went rogue and and so you know, but I
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: don't think she was ever gonna win. And so really
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: this race, as you know, is between to Me Moore
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: and Mikey Madison and it's a really really compelling race.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: Now let's just go back, you know, two days, which
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: will we do that?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Let me just give the odds right now, we got
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: to me more.
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  Speaker 3: You know, it's your show.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you, thank you de Me Moore for the substance.
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  Speaker 1: She's at minus three hundred, Mikey Madison for Honora plus
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: one sixty five. Uh, and then the rest of the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: field is pretty far off. So it's really is between
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: those two. So yes, give us your take.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Well, so what's interesting is okay, So to me, one
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: Sag on Sunday, and the thing about Sag just as
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: one predictor and one thing I want to you know,
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: maintain and always sort of give the blanket statement is
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: that it's great that there's all these precursor awards, and
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: in a certain way, they do kind of start to
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  Speaker 3: calcify a perception as to who's going to win. But
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: for everybody listening at home, there's no body in any
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: of these precursor awards, the PGA, the DJA, SAG, WGA
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  Speaker 3: Golden Globes that truly truly correlates to the Academy as
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: of For instance, I think there's like ten thousand members
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  Speaker 3: in the Academy. The Acting branch of the Academy is
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: the largest branch. I should have looked it up before
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: we got here, But let's say it's like three to
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: five thousand members are in the actors branch. There's one
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty thousand people in SAG who were eligible
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: to vote, you know, in the last week for the
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: SAG Awards, which we're announced on Sunday. So ultimately, like
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: just because of something they did does not mean it's
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: going to completely correlate, because you've got people that are
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: doing day player parts on TV shows voting for who
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: they think should win, you know, best Actress. So with
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: that said, you can still look at this stuff to
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: figure out if there's patterns. So what I decided to
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: do was for a lot of this was go back
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: to like twenty ten basically, like you know, start with
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: that decade and go forward. So from twenty ten to now,
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: ten of the fourteen winners for SAG Best Actress then
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: correlated to the Oscar winner. So that's you guys are numbers,
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: guys like ten to fourteen. That's pretty decent. With that said,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: and this is my kind of hunch on this race,
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: which will lead into some of the other races I'm
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: thinking about last year. Last year Lily Gladstone beat Emma Stone,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: and I thought Lily Gladstone was excellent in Killers of
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: the Flower Moon. And there were two narratives she had.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: One was there was a question the entire year, which
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: was was she the lead actress or was she the
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: supporting actress because she's really kind of the supporting part
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: of that movie. But the other issue or not issue
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: that the narrative was she's a Native American woman playing
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: a Native American character in a movie that is about
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the plight of Native American people. And you know, there's
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: a sense of like, well, we want to honor this
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: because this representation has not been around enough, and I
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: picked Loly Gladstone to win at the Oscars, and the
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: minute Michelle Yo announced Emma Stone winning, I was like,
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: I'm an idiot. Of course Emmastone was winning the whole time,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: because if you had watched Poor Things, it was impossible
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: to not come away thinking Emma Stone was every single
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: inch of that movie. She was absolutely brilliant. Not to
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: mention she's kind of one of the most famous people
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: working in Hollywood. And when you go back to like
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: who's winning two Oscars for Best Actor or Actress before
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: they're forty, that is a very very rarefied list. My
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: point is, now you look at de Me versus Mikey,
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: I love to me Moore. I mean, I'm forty five
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: years old. Demi Moore was a huge part of my childhood.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: A few good men, you know, like she was married
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: to Bruce willis my all time favorite actor. Like I
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: love Deme Moore. I'm rooting for Demi more just as
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: a human being, and she's run an amazing press to her.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: If you watch The Substance, it is truly a fifty
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: to fifty movie. I mean, by design, she takes the
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: Substance and then Margaret Qally, you know, appears not to
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: give too much of it away, and then the rest
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: of the movie they're going back and forth sharing the
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: body and she's amazing in it, but it's like a
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: fifty to fifty split if you watch A Nora, not
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: unlike Poor Things. Every inch of that movie is Mikey Madison.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: And not to get into the other categories, but obviously
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: A Noor is surging, and we'll come back to that
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: later and we get to like Best Picture and Director,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: but I do feel like, frankly, if there's this much
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: love for Anora, well, how can you have that much
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: love for it and not have the love for Mikey Madison.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: The thing going against her has been that she's twenty
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: five years old. The youngest actress to ever win the
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: Best Actress oscar is Marley Mattlin. She won in nineteen
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: eighty six for Children of a Lesser God. She was
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: twenty one. Now, there are young actresses that win relatively frequently.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: Jennifer Lawrence won when she was really young for Silver
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: Lenning's Playbook. It's the best actor category where typically young
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: men do not win. Ironically, we'll get to this later,
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: but when Adrian Brody won in two thousand and two
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: for The Pianist. He was the youngest actress. Since he
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: might have beaten the record, I have to look it up,
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: but since Richard Dreyfus won in nineteen seventy seven for
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: The Goodbye Girl. So typically best actor goes to like
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: older men, and we'll get to that between Tim Shallmay
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: and Adrian. Now now Adrian's the older man. So but
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: this is an amazing race. I mean, Mikey Madison, you
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: know one Indie Spirit Award, she won the BAFTA, which
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: is not nothing. Demi won the Golden Globe to me
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: one sag. Demi has a huge following, obviously in Hollywood
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: for years. I think there's probably a sense that like,
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: will do me be nominated again? Who knows? Whereas Mikey's
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: at the beginning of her career and she can be
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: nominated five more times for all we know. This one
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: is such a toss up. But I am going to
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: go with Mikey Madison.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I'm shocked because I feel like you said two things
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that actually contradict your theory about Emma Stone Demi Moore.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Demi Mour is the significantly more famous actor in this case. Yeah,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: there is a history of wanting to give the award
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: as a career award for someone at this stage when
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: they haven't won before, haven't been appreciated, haven't been acknowledged.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And I love that your reference point for Demi Moore
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: is being married to Bruce Willis and if you have
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: read and like in the movie's Disclosure and a few
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Good Men, and I'm thinking, like you know, seeing almost Fire, Yeah,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: because because I'm because that's my reference point. But number one,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: she's more famous. Number two, I do think in the
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: substance she had, I do feel like she carried that
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: movie and margaret quality was amazing in the movie, but
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: like her acting was much more muted to me, almost
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: literally like she just had didn't have a lot of lines,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: like in the first thirty five to forty minutes of
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: the movie, whereas to me more was she felt like
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: a different person to me compared to her public persona Simon,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: you're nodding back and forth. I think you're with me.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: I think it is all part of the game. Like
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of things we'll talk about. He's coming up.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: But it's like even if like you just said, it's career, right,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: It's not just you know that, it's that part of
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: the game, right, it's not just for the one movie.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: They've done it for their body of work. And like
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: you said, she knows a lot of these people in
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: this business better than you know, unfortunately for Mickey. But
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be betting here on the dog. So I
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: already know where I'm going. I mean, I get it,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: DEMI should be minus three hundred. But you know me, Chaed,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: I like the dog. I like the upside of the
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: value here where what he's talking about, Like we've seen
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: last minute flips here in the oscars, right, they've gotten
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: the favorites wrong because it is kind of the human element, right,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: they don't know how these people are going to vote.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: All they can do is just project. So you know me, Jed,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: I'm a sucker for the dog.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Well, the other thing too, keep in mind, like you
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: have to go back to, like, okay, what are the
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: narratives we have, like get you get a narrative on
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: the day of the nominations, and you get a narrative
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: now basically to this moment when we've had every precursor
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: award except obviously the Oscars. The narrative on the day
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: of the nominations were a couple of things. Over reformers
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: were a complete unknown substance actually, which helps to me more.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: And I'm still here. The the Brazilian film that got
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: into the Best Picture race and Fernanda Taurus got you know,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Best Actress nomination. Those were the over performers, So that
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: would bode well for to me more. But then when
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: you look at the next two months, the massive overperformer
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: has been an Aura, which you know, Best Picture of
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: the PGA's Best Director of the DJA. We'll get to DGA.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: That's a highly correlative, you know, one to one over
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: like ninety years, you know, winning Critics Choice Awards, did
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: not win baf TO or did not win BAFTA or SAG.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: We'll come back to that. I have some stats, and
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: Golden Globes went to Brutalist. But and I'm very much
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: on the record here, like I don't think the Golden
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Globes matter. I mean, the Golden Globes are not even
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: voted on people who even work in the business. Technically,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: you know, you could at least make a correlation to say,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: well the producers are you know, there's a certain body
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: of producers in the Oscar, you know, in the Academy
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: blah blah blah blah. So to me, I just feel
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: like you have to pay attention to Like it's been
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: a weird year of movies. I thought it was actually
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: a very good year, despite they're not being some massive heavyweight.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: Everybody agreed was the Second Coming. But in talking to
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: a lot of Academy members and voters, one of the
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: movies people always come back to is Anora, And by
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: the way, a lot of the movies people come back
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: to his Brutalist. But it just seems like Brutalist is
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: like not dead on arrival, but like you know, is
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: not going to win Best Picture. I think feel like
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: it had its moment, it had its money. So we
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: like Mikey Madison here, well you guys do well, you listen.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: I'm happy it's going to be to me, Yeah, but
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: I do.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I want to talk. I want to get to I
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: want to get to director, because Lasker, when you and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I spoke, Brady Corbett, I think was who directed The Brutalist. Yeah,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: was the odds on favorite at the time, and I
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: had just seen a Noora. I freaking loved it. I
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: thought it was amazing. Sean Baker, the director of A
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Noor He was I think the second shortest odds now
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Sean Baker minus one eighty five Brady Corbett plus one
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: twenty five. I feel like, if Demi Moore has had
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: an incredible OSCARS campaign, Britty Corbett peaked and then has
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: gone downhill since he gave that speech, and now he
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: just continues to look like a very precious, unself aware director.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And that, along with the fact Anora has gotten so
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: much more heat the past few months, has catapulted Sean Baker.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: Here's what I would say. I think, you know, I
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: always want to be politically correct because I work in
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: this business. I think that Seawan Baker's speeches at the
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: DGA and at the Indie Spirit Awards were like really
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: strong and really big rally cries, and look, they're both
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: incredible artists. They both have been very on the record,
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: like these guys. I a producer who produced some of
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: Sewan's movies, who produced a film for one of my clients,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: was telling me, like, Sean Baker doesn't moonlight for the
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: studios and rewrite rom comms for them when he's not
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: making movies. He is an independent filmmaker. He goes from
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: one project to the next. He makes it every money
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: he can make. He literally said in his speech on
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Saturday the Indian Spirit Awards. They doesn't have children, and
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: if he had children, he wasn't sure he'd be able
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: to survive because of the way him and his wife
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: you know live, you know, making these movies. And Brady
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: has been very open on many many interviews and on
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: many podcasts about you know, the life they're living. Hasn't
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: made anything off The Brutalist. I thought The Brutalist was
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: absolutely incredible. Definitely when it like really hit in December,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, Brutalist is here to stay. He's
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: going to do it. I don't think the Golden Globe
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: speech helped, but I think on the bigger level, you know,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: I loved the movie, but it's not a movie for everybody,
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: and it's not a movie where like it landed for everybody.
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of people that are like that first
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: half was incredible, second half less incredible. Wasn't sure that
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: the coda like totally landed, And there's a lot of
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: people think that it's an absolute masterpiece, but it does
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: feel like it's faded. I was very surprising didn't win
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: Best Director from the DGAs, and frankly very surprised they
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: didn't win to the PGAs because what a lot of
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: us thought was, we have a bunch of producers voting
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: on this and the whole story of the Brutalist. One
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: of the stories has been that they made it for
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: ten million bucks and it looks like fifty So like,
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: why would the producers vote for that? Because that's really
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: impressive and they didn't care. And by the way, Honora
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: was made for like, you know, a similar amount of money.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: And also is it I mean, people love Anora, so
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: I think you know, yeah, I mean you can't. You
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: don't have really good odds on Sean Baker, but it
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: would be very hard to bet against him. The DGA
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: almost always correlates, and sometimes when it doesn't correlate, that's
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: because I have to look up the years. I mean,
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: one of them, notably was nineteen ninety five. In nineteen
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: ninety five, Ron Howard wins Best Director to the DGA
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: for Paul thirteen and then is not nominated for the
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: for the Oscars. And that's when Mel Gibson wins for Braveheart.
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: So there's years like that where the winner doesn't correlate.
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: But that's all so a very weird exception when the
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: winner of the DGA is also nominated for the Oscar.
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: I'd have to look it up, but like I think,
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: maybe the last time where it was in both fields
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: was I want to say, Sam Mendy's one for nineteen
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: seventeen of the DGAs and then of course Bank Juneo
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: won at the Oscars, which was a massive like surge
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: that night because he won so many Academy Awards. But
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: typically it does correlate, I mean almost always, So I
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: think you have to go over Sean Baker for director
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: right now, Well, you.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Could parlay Sean Baker at minus win eighty five and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: to me more at minus three hundred and get a
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: little better, right, Simon.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: That's what we like to do.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: Well, by the way, speaking of that, and this will
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: come to a non of the big eight categories, but
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: it's a category I want to bring up in a
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: second as it relates to Best Picture. Can you guys
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: actually bet in real time as the show's going on,
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: like can you place it? It has to be locked
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: in now they close it like an hour before. Usually
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: got it.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: As soon as I hit the red carpet, they almost
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: all markets go off just because it's like that's where
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: the information is being shared, right, that's where the leaks
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: start happening.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: Once into the building, Well once when we get the
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: best picture. I want to throw out a side category
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: that could connect to that, but we'll come back to
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: that in a second.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: All right, So we're going with Anora and Sean Baker.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're best director.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Substance to me, we're going to go on
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: to Best Original Screenplay. And this is a race between
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: again a Noora, which is about minus I think two
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: thirty and Substance, which is plus two eighty and a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Real Pain is sort of drifting around on there plus
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: seven fifty. That's the Jesse Eisenberg movie that he did
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: with Kieran Culkin. So Anora and Substance both amazing, amazing movies.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I felt like the last twenty minutes of the Substance
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: kind of went from mind boggling horror slash big think
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: piece to kind of silly and lazy, whereas Anura like
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: went from this is a fun, cool, sexy romp with
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a really smart lead and kind of a dopey supporting
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: actor and had a crazy pivot that just made it
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: more and more insane in a really good way. Simon,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: you agree with me on this, you're shaking your head.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: I thought it was good where it just felt like
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: I don't want to age myself here. But it feels
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: like so many movies nowadays are four forte and above,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: and you don't really get too many twenties in like
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: twenties in below that's actually well done, right, like you
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: get kind of these romp comps or whatever. But this
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: felt like the actual thing of someone from this age,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: from my generation, wrote a piece of their life into
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: a good, actual movie with actual good characters like not
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: the shit on female roles, but a lot of times
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: they don't keep them real, right. It's all about either
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: them chasing a boy or them going through heartbreak or
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: just something stupid in general, they don't really develop as
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: a character in this movie. I felt like they really
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: developed the female role in these characters, which is great
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: for this time period. Right, it's all about you know,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: people my age wanting to get I want to see
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: things about the things they've gone through in their lives,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: and it felt like we had a dead period, right
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and the nineties we had a ton, the early two
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: thousands we had a ton. And then we've had a
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: run here of maybe one every two years of a
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: time piece of young people in my age living in
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: New York or Chicago, LA and showing what the life
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: is like there. So I'm right there with each other.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm shocked to see it's picked up steam
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: here right Like every category we're going through right here,
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: they're kind of the favorite, right, So it's interesting they've
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: picked up so much steam such so late here.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: Well, I think you make a good point. I mean,
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: you know, some people on other podcasts have talked about
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: like is Anora does have too much sex to win
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: like Best Picture, and people reference that, you know, the
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: only X rated film to ever win Best Picture was
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: Midnight Cowboy in nineteen sixty nine, and that movie would
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: not be rady to X sday. That was just because
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: of the time. There's not even that much sex in it.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: I think the thing about Anora what connected to people
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: is that you just saw her as this real person.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: You didn't see her she wasn't a prostitute. She was
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: a stripper who sometimes would you know, you know, do
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: other things, you know, as the movie sets up, and
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: it really I think tapped you into like this is
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: just a young person who's trying to live their life
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: and has dreams. And I think a lot of what
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: people enjoy about the movie is like it's this debate
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: of like is she dumb? Is she not dumb? Like
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: she really thinks this guy's in love with it, She
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: really thinks she's gonna she's gonna be married to this guy.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: Like she's surprised that it turns out he's just a
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: video game loving you know, team you know, and all
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: that stuff. So what a lot of people thought going
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: into the nomination you know season, was that, oh, Honora
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: would be a lock to win Original Screenplay because that
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: would be the Constellation Prize for Anura. Other movies would
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: win the other big awards, and now turned out to
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: have all this momentum. The thing about the substance, And
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: I do think the screenplay, I mean, the movie is
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: way too long, but the screenplay is really good. And
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: what it's saying obviously about like modern beauty and societal standards,
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: you know, specifically for women, but not to compare one
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: French movie to another. But I do think back to
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: Anatomy of a Fall, you know, the movie that won
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Best Original Screenplay last year. That movie, to me just
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: had so much more momentum in the way people talked
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: about it and what it was sort of analyzing about,
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: you know, marriage. I think CORALI you know, obviously getting
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: not director nomination, right a nomination producer nomination is huge.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: I still don't think she's gonna win. What's interesting in
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: talking to a lot of people the last few days,
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: people do not want to count out a real pain.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: Yet he won the Indie Spirit Award on Saturday. The
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: Town Loves when when actors also write. Emma Thompson adapted
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: Sentences of Ability in Night ten a five won the
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Oscar for Best Adaptation. So I would not entirely be
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: surprised if he pulled an upset. I still think and
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: I'm and I'm going you know, as you'll see later,
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: with just the momentum of like you've got to think
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: about the end of the night and the next morning
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: of like what was the story and the only viable
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: story going into this Academy Awards is anura you know,
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: it's not going to be a year where something wins
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: seven eight nine Oscars. Will get back to some of
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: those stats when we get to Best Picture. But I
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: think you have to bet on Anora because it would
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: be surprising to me that like Substance or real Pain
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: is winning that, and then he's winning Director in Picture
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: and she's winning actress if we think she's winning actress.
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: But I don't know. I mean, it's it's another good
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: you know, up in the air category. I've talked to
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: Academy voters. They voted for September fifth. You know, that's
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: obviously not going to win, but you just never know.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: That's the beauty. And to remind your listeners at home,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: the way the Academy Awards work is that the individual
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: branches nominate their respective members. So all the writers nominate
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: the Writing comide. But for this Sunday, everybody who's voting
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: votes for the entire ballot. So a cinematographer is voting
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: for screenplay, an actor is voting for screenplay. You know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: somebody who's an at large member because they're in the
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: business as an agent or a manager or a lawyer,
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: they're voting for everything. So it's not all just writers
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: looking at the craft of writing. I do think also,
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I mean Sean Baker, and same thing for Brady and
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: same thing for CORALI. But like Sean Baker has, so
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: you know, in a major way, been this kind of
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: outlier of like I'm not in the system, and he's
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: made other movies that have flirted with the Academy Awards.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, he made The Florida Project, which a lot
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: of people thought I was going for Best Picture. It wasn't,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: but Wilm Dafoe is nominated for Best Supporting Actor. So
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: like he's been kind of like knocking me on the
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: door of the Academy and people really really like him
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: and they really respect him. So I think it could
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: be a very big night for him. Sean Baker. People
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: really really like him and they really respect him.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: What do you think happens to that guy's career if
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: he wins.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: I've talked about this. I asked my friend who produced
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: a couple movies for him, and she was like, nothing,
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: he will just keep making movies. He's not gonna You know,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: Edward Berger, who's a genius. Every two months you open
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: up the trades and it's like Edward Berger is doing
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: Ocean's fourteen. Edward Berger's rebooting The Boorn Supremacy. Like Edward Berger,
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: who I thought was amazing, we'll talk about Conclave. He
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: seems to like really be like I'm in Hollywood and like,
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: give me Hollywood stuff to do. I want to make
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: huge movies. Sean Baker is an artist. You know, he's
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: just going to go make his next story. I literally
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: asked a friend this and she was like, yeah, he's
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: He's not going to go do a weekly for Warner Brothers,
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: for Turner fifty grand to help him on a movie.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: That's like not who he is.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Simon, You and I are artists.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Oh, you guys are total artists.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we would never we would never ever. So I
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: like the idea. I like the idea of Jesse Eisenberg
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit of love at plus seven to fifty.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I liked the real pain. I didn't love it.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Did you watch his speech the other night?
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: I thought his speech was great. I think last year
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: that's maybe why you were thinking Emma Stone is because
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: he kept referring to Emma Stone in his speech. I thought,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: and I thought the speech was great. I thought the
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: movie was to me okay, and we'll get to Kieran Culkin.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I didn't know you could, you know, be in a
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: lead for you know, supporting actor or actor. I forgot
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: what he is for playing yourself apparently that.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: Playing character you already played on a TV show on HBO.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: It's layers, that's basically what he's doing. And he's just,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: you know, he seems to be very charming, and people
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: like to have him at award show, so they just
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: keep letting him win. All right, let's talk about Best
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Picture here for a second, because we're just we're coming
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: out of original Screenplay. Okay, Honora minus three hundred Conclave
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: you just mentioned h plus two fifteen, then The Brutalist
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred, Complete Unknown plus twenty eight hundred. So
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: I thought Conclave was amazing, and Laskar, you and I
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: and Simon, I think it was two years ago. The
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Menu to me was one of the best movies of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the year.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: You do here on the record, and you love that movie.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I actually just watched it again. You can see it now.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's on Netflix. It's so freaking good. It
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: is so good. Conclave obviously reminds me a little bit
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: of that movie, and because the actors and all that
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But give me your take on Conclave
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: or is this just anora?
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: This one is so up in the air. I mean,
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: first of all, I really really liked Conclave. I thought yea,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: and I actually watched it twice, and the second time
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: I watched it with my seventy eight year old mother
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: and she gasped when it ended at the ending, which
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: was hilarious to watch in real time. I thought it
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: was great. I mean, I do think, and I want
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: to be careful not to spoil for people haven't seen it.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: I still am not sure that the ending entirely works
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: of Conclave, like the you know, the kind of what
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: you find out at the very very end. And I
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: do think that a lot of these movies that tend
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: to win Best Picture sometimes they do come down to
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: like the ending. Like you know, I look back at
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen when Green Book beat Roma, and you know,
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: if you just look at it from like a movie
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: going standpoint, you know, Roma was a piece of art.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: Green Book was a movie that like made you feel
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: and you remember back to like when the door knocks
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: at the end of the movie and Marshal Ali is
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: standing there freezing and they hug each other, and that's
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: why that movie wins Best Picture. That's what people want
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: and no different than CODA. And you know twenty twenty
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: which is non by Land and twenty twenty one is CODA.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Those were weird years because of COVID. But like you
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: look at CODA when the dad says, I want to
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: hear you sing and he puts his hand on her
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: neck to feel her vocal chords. That's why these movies win.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: And I kind of thought Conclave botched that a little
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: bit with you know the twist. I loved the movie
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: and I thought he was directed within an inch of
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: its life, and the editing and the photography and the acting,
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: and I could watch Ray Fines do literally anything. He's
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: never won an Oscar. He was nominated in ninety three
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: for Shindler's List for Sporting Actor, in ninety six for
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Best Actor for The English Patient, and he's been overlooked
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: like seven times. Should have been nominated for the Grand
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: Buddapest Hotel, like another amazing, another movie. He's amazing and
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: an amazing film. So let's look at some of the
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Best Picture of stats. So Honora won the PGA, the DGA,
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: the WGA, the CCA that's Critics' choice. Brutalist won Golden Globes.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: That's like a distant memory. And now Conclave has won
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: BAFTA and SAG. Okay, all right, let's go to SAG.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: They call it Best Ensemble. That's the version of Best Picture.
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: SAG has been around for twenty nine years. Fifteen of
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: the twenty nine years of SAG, the winners that have
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: won Best Ensemble one Best Picture. You guys are numbers, guys,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: not good. That's not good. That's fifty to fifty. That's
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: not good at all. So now there's all kinds of
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: like substats out there about, like, you know, get people
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: that are way smarter than me, that are like, you know, well,
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: the last time a movie only one X and Y
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: and one SAG one Best Picture, and like one of
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: those was Coda, you know what I mean. So this
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: has happened recently. The way I look at uh SAG ensemble,
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: to be quite honest, is sometimes I think people are
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: truly voting for an ensemble, you know, literally the word
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: and Conclave is an ensemble. You know, you've got like
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: nine people with major parts. Anora has four people in it, right,
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: it has you know, Mikey, it has the guy who's nominated,
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: you know, the Russian you know guy that she has
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Russian Timothy right, then it has the Russian Timothy Schell
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: made the other guy, and then it has the older
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: guy who I loved. I need to write their names
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: down for a future podcast appearance. But it's it. It's
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: a four person movie. I don't think people see it
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: as an ensemble. So with all that said, there's only
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: two movies really now that feel like they could win,
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: and it's Anora. In Conclave, there was a feeling on
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: the day the nominations, a complete Unknown had a real chance.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: People thought because of the preferential ballot that it could
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: be so many people's ones, twos, and threes it could
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: get there. I loved that movie, but I just don't
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: feel like it's shown any real momentum in any of
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: the other precursor awards. I never thought Wicked was going
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: to win. Brutalist is completely faded, so it's a nourra
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: in Conclave. Now. The funny thing about Conclave is that
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: it is the quintessential older Academy movie, you know. And
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: I talked to one Academy member that is in his seventies,
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: like a month ago, and he was like, it's a
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: process movie. And people in Hollywood love process movies because
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: it's kind of like making a movie, you know, so
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: it has a shot. Doesn't matter that it didn't get
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: a Best Director nomination. Coda did not have a Best
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Director nomination and one Best Picture. Argo in twenty twelve
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: did not have a Best Director anomation nomination. One Best Picture.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: Driving Miss Daisy in nineteen eighty nine did not have
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: a Best Director nomination one Best Picture happens all the time.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: The Best Director race was unbelievably competitive this year. So
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: what I was going to talk about earlier, and this
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: is why I asked you, you know, Chad and Simon
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: about because you vote during the show. So let's talk
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: about Best Editing. Okay, pre nineteen ninety nine, usually the
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: movie that won Best Picture also won Best Editing because
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: there was a feeling that like, if it's the best
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: movie of the year, it was obviously the best edited
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: film of the year, because that means the movie is
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: put together in the best possible way. If you look
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: in the nineties, movies like Schindler's List, Dance with the Wolves, Unforgiven,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Forrest Gump, you know, on and on and on. From
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: nineteen ninety nine until now, only nine films that have
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: won Best Editing also won Best Picture, right, So it
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: doesn't correlate now at all. It did correlate the last
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: two years Obenheimer won Best Editing and everything everywhere all
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: once one Best Editing. But what happens now a lot
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: of times is Best Editing will go to maybe a
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: more unique film, like in nineteen Night nine it went
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: to the Matrix, you know, so it might go to
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: a movie that like really stood out for its editing.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: One year, one of the Born movies, I think The Supremacy,
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: the second one one Best Editing. People remember those movies
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: were edited in really cool ways, like how they did
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: the fight scenes. So meanwhile, the five Best Picture, the
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: five Best Editing nominees are Amelia Prez, Conclave, Wicked, Anora,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: and The Brutalist. Okay, well, we know Amelia Prez is
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: not winning Best Picture, and we don't think Wicked's winning
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: Best Picture, and we don't think The Brutal is winning
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: Best Picture. And what do you have left Conclave and Anora?
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: So here's my point. When you're watching the show on Sunday.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: If Conclave wins Best Editing, assume it's probably winning Best Picture.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: You know. And by the way, it's interesting that movie
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: was edited. The editing was incredible. Now I think the
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: editing of Anora was incredible too. I think the movie
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: was too long. I think most movies are too long today.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: But you know, so you have to really that can
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: be a really strong precursor award going back up to
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Best Picture. I mean, I still will go with Anura
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: because I'm just going to go with the momentum. And
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: I also think that if you are looking at the
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: proferential system of like what's in the top one, twos
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: and threes, you know, the movies I have heard anecdotally
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: about from the most people that I talked to that
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: are in the Academy are a nourra burillist and actually
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: a complete unknown. Because one of the things that a
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: complete unknown did, which you can imagine, I mean, you're
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: not a boomer, Chad, You're you're right after the boomers,
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: but the boomers right after. I would say, okay, twenty.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Years after, long long after, Okay, okay, very long after.
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: Okay, excuse me, but I'm telling you the people I
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: had two clients in New York who went to one
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: of the Complete Unknown Oscar screenings and they were like,
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: we were the youngest. These guys are both in their forties,
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Like we were actually a client and a friend, and
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: they were like, we were twenty years younger than everybody
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: in the room. And people went nuts, and as you know,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: and I felt this way. I felt this way about
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: Elvis a couple of years ago, which was that what
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: And I like the movie Elvis, but I think Elvis
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: resonated with the Academy is that a quarter of the
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: Academy was alive for Elvis Presley and they were like,
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: oh my god, like this is my childhood. This is
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: when I was twenty, this when I was thirty. I
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: remember Elvis Presley and I loved to Complete Unknown. I
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: was so happy Mangold was nominated and Monica Barbara. I
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: had them both on my nomination list that I made
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: the night before like a nerd. And I thought the
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: movie was great. I thought Mangold crushed it. And I
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: think there is that feeling of like he went out
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: and he recreated the Bob Dylan these four years that
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: a lot of us know. And when I talked to
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: a friend of mine whose mother is a retired producer
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: who's in the Academy, and she told me that her
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: mother and her dad literally got out all their Bob
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Dylan albums like that week and like put them on
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: the mantle, like to kind of like pay respect, you know,
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: back to Bob Dylan. So I would say to me,
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: those are only three movies that really have a chance.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: I think the Brutalis is out a lot of the
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: other movies in the top ten, you know, from you know,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: Nickel Boys to you know, I'm Still here, you know,
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: to the Substance. I mean, they ever never going to win.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: So I think you have to go with an Aura.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: All right, then it's going to be anura. We're getting
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: into a noora like sweep category at this point.
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: Well that's where my head is at. I'm sorry to
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: rupt you. Is that is at the end of it,
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: you'll be like, okay, anor one picture director, screenplay actress,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: maybe picked up another one, and then you'll be like okay,
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: one like four or five oscars, And that will make
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: sense because the other thing I was gonna mention earlier
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: is that which I touched on, is that you know,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: a lot of these Best Picture winners now they win
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: less than five Oscars, so like Aubenheimer and everything everywhere,
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: each one seven. But then when you look back in
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: the previous you know, several years Code one three, no
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Medland one three, Parasite one four, green Book one three,
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: Spotlight one two, are Go one three, So we're definitely
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: still out of this like huge epic, you know phase.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, if The Brutalist ended up being the dominating movie,
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: that could have won like seven, eight or nine, but
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: just not meant to be. But I'm sorry I interrupted you.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Now, when you look back on history, green Book winning
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: three Oscars is gonna be one of those years where
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: you're like, what the fuck were people? Thank you? It's
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: a sweet movie.
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: I liked green Book.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: It was fine, totally fine, Simon. The twenty seventeen Academy
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Awards presentation featured one of the biggest live gaps in
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the history of modern television. Many will remember that for
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: the final category of the night, the incorrect winner was
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: announced for Best Picture. This sent the entire broadcast into
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: complete chasts, tarnished the reputation of the Academy, and generally
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: embarrassed people on the biggest stage, and there's something else
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: that can send each of us into complete chaos, something
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: else that can tarnish our reputations. Signmon, something else they
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: can embarrass you on your biggest stage inferior, low quality underwear.
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• 41:13
  Speaker 1: best underwear category, there's only one nominee on my card.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: It's Tommy John. Simon. Why will you be wearing more
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• 41:35
  Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Laskar chuckled at that,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: which was fun.
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: Well, I actually thought you were going towards a piece
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: of trivia, and then the way you tied it into
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: the underwear at.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: It, I can take no credit. It's all that, and
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: it's the first time I read these without having read
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: them before, and so I am I'm reading it. I'm
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: learning the story as I go. It's like reading.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: That's why they feel so natural.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, as I go, And so it's so fun. I
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: can't wait to see how it ends. All right, best
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: actor Timothy Shallamy.
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: He just won SAG and then let's say, I looked
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: at my stats. Okay, so let me give you.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: While you're looking at the stats, let me just give
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the answer. Because while he won the SAG Adrianan Brody
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: at the Brutalist minus two twenty five Timothy Shallomey plus
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: one forty Ray Finds plus twelve hundred, and everything sort
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: of skyrockets from there. Appropriately. So, look, Shalome wants to
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: do what Brody did, which is win it as the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: youngest person ever. As you mentioned, Brody did it. What
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: was it twenty five years ago or whatever?
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, two thousand and two.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, give it to us, tell us what's well?
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: Look, I mean again, what's interesting is that you know,
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: Shalmy hadn't won anything until Sunday Night, and then he
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: won the SAG Award. Now SAG since twenty ten has
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: gone twelve or fourteen predicting Best Actor. The notable exceptions
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: were Denzel Washington won for Fences in twenty sixteen, as
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: opposed to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, and
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: then in twenty twenty, Chadick Boseman won for Ma Rainey's
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: Black Bottom instead of Anthony Hopkins for The Father. Now,
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: I had Anthony Hopkins winning that night at the Oscars
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: because if you watch Ma Raine's Black Bottom, he really
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: was a supporting person of that movie, and I actually thought,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: I don't think people are going to vote for him,
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: just because unfortunately he tragically had passed away. So to me,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: I feel like looking I mean, both of those from
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: SAG were just sort of like none of those made
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: sense because even Denzel and Fences wasn't really contending as
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: like maybe the runner up from Casey anyways, and a
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: lot of the other races that were being predicted that
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: year back in twenty sixteen, so it's pretty predictive. I mean, look,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: it's it's so tricky because there's definitely this feeling of
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: like Challo May is our new Leo, and like, let's
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: make him work for it. Leo didn't win until he
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: was nominated, I think in his fifth time in twenty
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: fifteen for The Revenant. But shall may. I mean it's cool.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: I mean he's a special, special actor. I think he's
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: unbelievable in the movie this. This is such a toss up.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think I would still lean Adrian just
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: because he won so many of the early awards, and
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: I think people think he's just so amazing in that movie.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: And I do think there's a little bit of a
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: sense of like Shalome will be back so many more times.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: There was this weird narrative of like, you know, Adrian
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: Brody already won for this exact same role in The Pianist,
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: which that's a very reductive thing to say, just because
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: they're both, you know, Jewish Holocaust survivors. He's amazing in
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: The Brutalist. So I would still lean Brody. But it's
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: another toss up.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Snon loves to Mithew Shaname he's amazing. I did.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's he's in a rare spot where, like
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: he talked about Leo, Leo probably would have won if
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: things were a little different in the nineties, where it
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: was really you got to earn it before you can
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: get it. Where I feel like there's been a shift
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: nowadays where you know, someone like him, I feel like
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: he has put in the work and movies do they
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: need a movie like we need young movie stars. We're
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: in this weird thing where, like I love Michael B. Jordan,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna be the next one to
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: step up for people around my age. He kind of hasn't.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: And there's been this void still of someone to fill
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: this void of the next Leo tom Cruise type, like
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: someone that you know like there was there's there's strutches
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: of different people, like even Brad Pitt. I put him
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: on the same pedestal where Matt Damon too. They make
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: a movie, I don't care what the movie is. I
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: go and see it, and they think they know they
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: need to start getting back to that with this younger
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: generation because we have had some dead like duds, Like
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: you know, I like Zach Effron, He's kind of a dud.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: He didn't really turn out to be the guy like
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I love Iron Claw, but I had to beg people
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: to go see that movie. They weren't going to see
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: it simply because Zach Effron's in it. Where you know,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: if that was the nineties or eighties and it's Tom
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: Cruise in the Iron Claw. Everyone's seeing it, men and women.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Timmy's in this cool spot of
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: his range of doom to then do a movie like
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: this right where he can be the action star guy.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: And you know, I just think he could pull the
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: upsete off here, Like I love that he's a dog
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: in this number. And I do think it's like after
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: how he gave that speech at SAG where it's like
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: he's not backing away from it, He's lean into it.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Be like I want to be great. I want to
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: be the big guy. I do like that. I wonder
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: your percession of it is that gonna hurt him or
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: benefit him?
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: Well, the thing is the voting was the voting was
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: done on like February twenty ohr eighteenth, though the voting
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: closed like ten days ago, so it doesn't really matter.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, I think honestly, for people that are
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: betting on this, it's like take Schalamey for Best Actor,
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: take to be More for Best actress, Like just head
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: your bets, you know what I mean? Like, look, I
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: thought Shallome was unreal in that movie. I would be
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: so happy if he wins. I don't know if this
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: one is just like a complete complete uh toss up.
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: But you're right, he definitely has been annoyed as like
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: he's going to be the next guy. But the SAG
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: Awards are always pretty late. Somebody said that they were
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: moved because of the LA fires, but yeah, I mean
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: they're you know, the voting has been done so and look,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: I think shall May he was already doing so much press.
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, he played himself as Bob Dylan on SNL,
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: like you know, he was leaving it all out on
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: the on the floor these days exactly.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: I want to take Shallo May here.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: I love.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: I thought the movie was amazing, just rush it. But again,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I'm close to Boomer so it's almost almost my music.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: But I've never been a Bob Dylan guy. And I
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: watched that movie and then couldn't stop listening. You know,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: I was your friend's parents like just streaming Dylan NonStop
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: because he was so so good in this movie. I
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: also found him to be and you know, I'm a sucker,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: so incredibly charming on his press tour right yea in
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: college game day, he was amazing. And then the old
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: stuff surfaced about what a huge Knicks fan he was,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: and his sports knowledge, I mean that connected with me.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: And then so then it was just this guy who
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: I want to hang out with. Andy happens to be
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: a great actor and he's so freaking ambitious, which I loved.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Simon to your point, I love that speech, and I
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: like the way Adam Sandler says Timothy Shallowy.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: Of course, no, he's he's amazing. It would be very
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: cool if he won. And I mean Adrian Birdie already
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: has an Oscar. But yeah, I think because Adrian Birdie
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: won in two thousand and two. You know, people I
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: saw amos at an Academy member yesterday, it's like, do
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: you want to put Adrian Brody in the two timer? Club?
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: Is winning two best after Oscars? But it's so far apart,
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: I don't think people really think about it. And by
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: the way, in this newer era, we've had a lot
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: of people win two Oscars relatively fast. I mean, Emma
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Stone won two in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty three,
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: Christoph Waltz won two two thousand and nine twenty twelve,
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: Mershaw Alie won two twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen. I mean,
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: like it's happening kind of faster. I don't think people
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: care about that stuff as much anymore. It's a total
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: toss up. I mean, I literally might change my mind
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: at like four o'clock on Sunday when I like finished
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: doing my ballot at my house.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: You know, oscars are practically a participation trophy now, the
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: way they're just giving away. They don't even have standards anymore.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Best Adapted Screenplay Conclave runaway here has.
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: To be relatively weak category. The other thing too, going
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: back to Best after for one second, just again thinking
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: about what happens the next day. One thing that's happened
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: recently with the Academy Awards is every year there have
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: been some major major movies with like ten or eleven
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: nominations to get nothing. Notably Killers of Flower Moon, Irishmen
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: Banshees of an Asheron Tar like Tarn Banshees each had
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: nine nominations, got zero, so completely unknown as eight nominations, like,
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: don't be surprised if it wins zero oscars, Like that's
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: just how it shakes out sometimes now. But back to adapted, Yeah,
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: Conclave has been the runaway you know favorite for this
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: you know, non stock you know the entire narrative, the
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: entire year, and I don't see why wouldn't win. You
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: can't go off the WGA's. It's very confusing because thinking
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: about the WGA's, they only nominate WGA scripts, and a
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: lot of these movies you get nominated for oscars are
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: written by foreign, non American writers who are not in
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: the WGA. So I don't think Conclave was even eligible
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: at the w's. The Brutalist wasn't eligible, blah blah blah blah.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: So the Conclave is gonna win. I don't see anything
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: upsetting it. I can't ever. I mean, I know, like
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: Complete Unknown was nominated. I'm forgetting Oh Nickel Boys, that's
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: not going to win. Yeah, I'm forgetting the other two
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: nomination Amelia Perez not gonna win and Sing Sing, Yeah,
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: not gonna win. The Sing Sing nomination. I loved Sing Sing.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: I was bummed it was nominated for Best Picture. That
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: was definitely a way of nominating the guys behind that
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: movie to like show them some love. But it's not
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: gonna win.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: This does feel like the award that is Conclave's consolation, right,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Like it's sort of second place in a lot of
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: different categories and this is the one. Everyone can be like, oh.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but but how about this. What if Conclave wins
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: Best Editing, Best at After Screenplay, and Best Picture with
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: no director nomination. You know, that would be tantamount too
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: a little movie called Argo.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I was just going to say, that feels Argo at.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: Argo, you know. So it's possible. It's completely, completely possible,
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: and it's that's why it's fun, and that's you know,
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: the new proferential balloting they do is really interesting, and
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: Conclave could win. You know, the BAFTAs are are to
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: be taken seriously because the Academy has gotten very international,
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: has a much more international voting body. Although I think
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: the producers of Conclave were British and so you could
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: argue because it won Best British Film and it won
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Best Film at BAFTA, so you know, maybe a one
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: because it was kind of the hometown favorite a little bit.
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: You know, I don't know, I really liked it. If
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: it wins, I'll be okay with that. I think there's
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: parts of Conclave that are incredible.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, she's an inter sharing by the way, you.
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: Know, you're you're on the record you loved inter Sharing.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: I thought that was as good a examination of the
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: price of success, the price of a life like that was.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: Well, it was about you and Simon. It was I mean,
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: you saw you and Simon's relationship reflected between Branglemon has
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: told me.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: So many times, if I keep talking to him, he
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: is just going to start cutting off the body.
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: Exactly.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: You can't babom wasting any more time when there is
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: real stuff to be done. Correct, best supporting actress.
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: Both of these are locked. I mean not to you know,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: they're locked.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: She was the pick when you and I spoke like,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: she was the odds on.
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: She and the Amelia press controversy did not affect her
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: on any level for the obvious reasons of she's great
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: in the movie, She's beloved in the business. It's kind
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: of a weak category this year, and people are not
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: that you know, uh mean, they're not going to like
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: hold that against her. She's she's getting up there, and
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: she has played her press and speeches post the controversy perfectly.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: She's she's winning.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: She was so good in that movie. Yeah, she danced
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: that scene when they're at that dinner. You know, there's
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: thousands of people there and she is dancing in the
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: middle of the tables, Like her movement is great, her
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: voice is amazing, she speaks Spanish so much in the movie,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Like she was tremendous. This is a no brainer. Lock
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: it in. She's minus three thousand, no discussion. Ye's so,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: then the question is, as you just said, best Supporting Actor,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Kieran Culkin in a real pain. He's minus five thousand.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: He's been winning everything.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: He's a log as well. Look, I think in both
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: categories you could do fun upsets if you want to
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: try to make some money. Going back to supporting actress,
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: I did talk to her Academy member last week who
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: not only told me they were voting for Isabelle Rossellini,
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: but also we're like, oh, yeah, she's winning. It's kind
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: of the same thing as to me. More it's like
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: a career oscar. I do not think she's going to win,
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: but maybe if you wanted to find like a fun upset.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: And I think in supporting actor there's two upsets to
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: be at, because because Kieran obviously seems to be winning,
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: one would be Yuri Borisov from Anora if you want
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: to go the full Honora like sweep. But the other
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: one the performance that everybody talks about in Hollywood is
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: Jeremy Strong. Yeah, and when you think about the fact
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: that Sebastian Stan was also nominated, shows you some real
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: love for that movie. And Jeremy Strong is just having
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: one of those moments where people are like, no one
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: quite knows what to make of him. He seems really weird,
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: but he's a hell of an actor. And don't be surprised,
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: I mean be hysterical because him and Kieran obviously were
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: on a show together for four years, and you know
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: how whatever relationship they have, I don't know. They both
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: seem odd frankly, but but Kieran probably is gonna win.
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: In the last ten to fifteen years, we're better or worse.
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: The supporting categories calcify really early, and I can barely
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: remember upsets. You know, I'd have to think about, but
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: there's very, very, very few upsets that come to mind.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Isabella Rosselini in Conclave plus two thousand. I feel like
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: she had five lines in the movie. I agree that
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: wasn't a supporting actor in any sense. She was like,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: you know, a cameo.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely completely agree with you, and I was
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: I actually didn't even have her on my nomination ballot,
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: you know, but like Felicity, you know, Jones never really
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: took flight, Ariana Grande never took flight. And who the
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: fifth one would have? Who's the fifth one of that category?
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Blank?
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: And was Monica Barbaro, who I love, but again not
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: I mean her nomination is the win.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Yes, I feel like I feel like she was great,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: but you know, it's not like maybe a lot of
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: people could have done that part and she just hadn't
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: be really good at that part. It's always al Donna.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know anyone else who could have on this
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: part like she was. She put her stamp on it.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: She was brilliant. It was her.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: She was. The interesting thing about Monica Barbarro. I was
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: talking to Fred Berger, the nominated producer of A Complete Unknown,
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: who's a really good friend of mine, and I was saying,
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: next time at a wedding at the end of the
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: Christmas break and right is the movie is kind of surging,
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: and I was just peppering him with a gazillion questions
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: and a lot of this has been in the press now.
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: I mean Monica, I don't think she actually could sing
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: when they cast her they I mean, she could carry
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: a tune. They must have been able to suggest that somehow,
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: but they had to teach her to be able to
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: sing like that, and they ended up, you know, had
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: they all these shutdowns with COVID and so forth. And
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, she's amazing in the movie. I thought she
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: was just incredible.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Also great in Top Gun Maverick, she's amazing.
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: I was flying bat them buying flying back from New
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: York last weekend. I rewatched the final scene of Top
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: Gun Maverick about four times in a row. Failed tears
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: every time when he says, thank you for saving my life,
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: and then Miles Teller says, is what my father would
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: have done. And it's so brilliant because he saved his
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: life technically by rescuing him, but he saved his life
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: by giving him purpose. It's an incredible movie.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: It's a dude. I've seen it so many times. I've
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: made my kid watch it probably four times, and I've
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: made him watch the original Top Gun, which I still love.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: It's much slower than it's interesting. You watch movies now,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Like my kid was sick last week and so we
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: ended up watching a bunch of movies together. We did
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: like we did Meet the Parents and then we did
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: we did Wedding Crashers, and like, even the difference between
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: those two movies as comedies with just a few years
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: between them, the pacing is different, right, And so one
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: of the nights I just happened to watch All the
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Right Moves with Tom Cruise from nineteen eighty three, Tom
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: Cruising Lea Thompson, Right. My wife was out of town
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: this weekend, so like, and I don't have any friends,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: so I was just watching a lot of movies, and
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: All the Right Moves was on you know, Amazon Prime
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: in the first row. So I watched it. It's so
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: and I was gonna call my kid up from the
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: basement and play in two k to come watch it
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: with me. And it's so slow. I'm like, he'll walk
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: out in two seconds. It's a great I loved it,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: but it is so slow.
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: Well, there's all these movies from that era where like
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: the first acts are forty minutes long, and like, yeah,
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: I mean people today, granted we're making really long movies
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: right now, but people just would not They just wouldn't
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: get how much time. But then you know, there are
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: actual there's funny examples. I have to clock it but
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: if you go back and watch Tutsie, I think it's
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: like minute nine when he's the woman he goes to
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: lunch with Sidney Pollock, and Sydney Pollock is like, you're busted.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: Nobody likes working with you. You got to like shake it
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: up hard. Cut to him walking down the street of
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: New York dressed as Dorothy Michael and you just buy
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: it because you know he's an actor. You know he
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: has access to makeup, bright hair and that and that's
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: it and they and it's one of the fastest buy
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: ins for a movie ever, you know. But uh yeah,
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of those movies they take their time. So anyways,
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, as you guys know, it's a it's
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: a great year. I mean, I thought it was a
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: great year for movies there. It's going to be really
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: spread around on Sunday and there's still like a lot
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: of surprises to come. It's exciting.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: It is exciting. Michael Laskar, you are a super powerful
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: manager at Mosaic, and so we appreciate you coming on
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: the favorite podcast to waste your time with us. Simon
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: is going to chop off all those fingers after probably
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: the next few episodes, of talking to me. So this
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: was a good rest bite for him.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: You guys didn't You didn't even give any trivia this.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Time, Matt Mitchell, do we have any trivia? I mean, Michael,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: you're we know you're a savant. Our listeners know your savant.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: The Hollywood reporter knows you're a powerful and so powerful.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: I didn't make you. Uh, we didn't need to wheel
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: out that parlor trick.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I'll ask you one thing.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: I'll ask you one thing.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: Oh, I hope I get it right.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: And this is this is more of an opinion to
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: see if you can match sort of my perspective on
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: pop culture. Yes, earlier in the show we mentioned Green
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Book as a movie. I think it's should not have
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: won three Oscars, should not have won. I think it
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: won Best Picture that year, should not have won. Can
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: you name What's in My Head as the other movie
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: that looking back is on the wrong side of history
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: and given the competition and how those movies have played
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: out historically over the past, say twenty five years, should
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: not have won Best Picture but did win because of
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the marketing, might have a certain studio.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: Well, you have to be referring to Shakespeare in Love.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: Michael Asker, you have won again. I mean, it's funny.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: People talk about it all the time. Harvey, who's in
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: prison for life where he should be, he changed it forever.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: I was talking to an exec who worked at Miramax
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: in the mid nineties, and she was telling me, she
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: was like an assistant. This was the year of Ill Postina,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: which is a very beautiful Italian film that Miramax got
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: a Best Picture and Director and actor nomination, that the
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: actor had died, Masimo Treesi, and he was nominated possionously
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: for Best Actor. And she was like, it was like basically,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: Harvey ran the campaigns like political campaigns, and they would
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: get the numbers of all the Academy members, and all
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: these assistants would sit in a room and they would
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: dial up. There was no cell phones. They would dial
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: people up at home. They'd say, have you watched Ill Postino?
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: Can I tell you all about it? Blah blah blah
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: blah blah. And he just completely changed the face of campaigning.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: I don't think I don't really think that people like
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's like, you know, people are actually
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: trying to hurt people, like when that AI thing came
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: out about, like how they altered Adrian Rody's voice for
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: some of the foreign language and brutalists. I don't think
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: that's like a plant. I don't think you know, people
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: have been wondering, like was it a rival movie that
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: dug up that the tweets from the Starving lay Prez No,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: I don't believe any of that. But everything just obviously
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: is more amplified than it's ever been now. And yeah,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: I mean people look back at Shakespeare Love, but the
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: thing is, and I love Sam Briar Ryan, but when
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: it lost, even in that moment, I reconciled that, like, well,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: let's break the movie down, like it's the greatest first
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: act in the history of movies basically, and then it
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: is really strong. But like, I don't remember actually feeling that, Like,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, I like the third act a lot, you know,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: when they have to like defend you know, the bridge
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: and everything, But I don't remember actually thinking in the
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: end the movie was like perfect Shakespeare in Love and
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: Chad and I year old enough as am I I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: was in college. That movie really knocked people. That took
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: people by storm. It was so clever and the acting
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: was incredible in the writing was incredible and the way
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: it kind of created this amalgamation of where all his
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: stories came from. So like, I don't personally think I
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: thought you were gonna say Crash because people talk about
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: Crash beating broke By.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: That's another one.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: I don't think Shakespeare Love is that bad. There are
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: worse Oscar winners than Shakespeare in Love. I mean, in
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: that movie, it ended up winning the most Oscars of
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: the night because it won Actress, Supporting Actress, Best Picture,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: Best Original Screenplay, and it won some like below the
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: line stuff. So I think Sampire won four and they
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: won five or something like that. So I don't think
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: it was so controversial. What's controversial is it was the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: beginning of Harvey being a terrorist and kind of willing
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: his might on people. And you know, you want to
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: talk about controversial. The artist. Another Harvey Weinstein special wins
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: Best Picture in twenty eleven, right over movies like The
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: Descendants and other good movies that year, and like, have
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: you has anybody ever talked about the artist ever again?
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: Picture Director, Actor, Like that was a Harvey Weinstein special.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: I had just had my first grandkid when Shakespeare in
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: love now you know you have a baby face because
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: I'm old. I'm old, Simon. That was the joke. Laster,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: You're the best brother. Thanks for coming on.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: So wonderful seeing you guys. Let's compare notes on Sunday
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: and Monday, and you know, happy heavy betting to your audience.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: We will as a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented
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  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off an iowaere terms. Conditioned
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with their next
• 1:05:00
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• 1:05:02
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  Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler