Latest / Stugotz and Company / Encore: GBF- Betting Unders (w/Bear)

Transcript

Encore: GBF- Betting Unders (w/Bear) · Stugotz and Company

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: God bless football, Mikey A.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: God bless football, Taylor.
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 0:17
  Speaker 4: God bless football, Bear.
• 0:19
  Speaker 5: Oh, yes.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: God bless football. Go Heels. Go Heels.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: He turned down a free trip to Ireland to see
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: his Tar Heels play because he's disgusted by Bill Belichick.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: How about that?
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Boy, the season's over before it even gets started. That's
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of optimism. Everyone's team is going to be great.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Everyone's going to go to the college football playoff. Everybody's
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: going to win 10 games. We're talking season, Taylor.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Come on. Yes, I had Carolina. We went through. We
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: did win-loss with Carolina. I had them at 11-1. How
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: about that?
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Only lost to Notre Dame, I'm guessing, right? Yes.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Close game, though.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: Mayor, I've reached the point of the week where my
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: head is telling me North Carolina has no shot because
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: I watched the game last year with two eyes, but
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: my heart is taking over. The fanatic in me is
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: taking over saying, why not us this year? Why not
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: North Carolina?
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Why not? Bill Belichick.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Ooh, the greatest pro football coach of all time?
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's odd that they're a coach away, though.
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: I mean....
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Seriously, to kind of piggyback on Taylor, though, like, hasn't
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: this line gotten a little out of control nine and
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: a half? Now, we don't know how good TCU is.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: They're breaking in a new quarterback and a new offense.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: They got players fighting in the locker room and getting
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: arrested for assault and their receivers now out for a
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: little bit. They booted the The DB from La Tech
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: off the team. We don't know how good TCU is.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Nine and a half seems a little bit of a
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: bridge too far, my man.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: All right, so you're taking the season under on TCU,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: I see.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: It's weird because there's definitely a hangover of this Ireland game.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: The team that loses, none of them have gone on
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: and even made a bowl game. Last year, Kansas State
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: was 6-6. The year before, Florida State was 2-10. Nebraska,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: I think, was 4-8 one year. Navy... Even Navy had
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: a losing season after losing a game over Allen. I
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: think he's kind of like drank their sorrows away and
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: left their hearts in Dublin by the Blarney Stone.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: Stu, here's the argument for North Carolina.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, it seems like Bear thinks Carolina's going to win
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: this weekend, right?
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I think they have a much better chance than people think. Yes.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: Here's the argument for North Carolina, Stu. Last year, Bill
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: Belichick and Michael Lombardi came in to Chapel Hill like
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: they were the two smartest people in the room.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: And they got served up some humble pie.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Ah, I see.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: And this is the year two where North Carolina adjust.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: And the, the line like bear mentioned is just an
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: overcorrection to how bad North Carolina was last year, where
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: you look at some of the metrics and you say, ah,
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: this North Carolina team might've been better than their record show.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. Bear. Yes. I think that, I think as
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: the year went on, I think their defense did a
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: little bit better as the year went on as well. Like,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: I know they've got some coaching issues off the field
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: and obviously the Lombardi investigation going on, but there might
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: even have been maybe a little bit of a learning
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: curve for Bill, like year one in college after being
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: in the pro zone. I hate to be pessimistic and
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: like the year is over before it even begins. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: think I'm willing to give the guy the benefit of
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: the doubt before we all go doom and gloom. But
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: it is, joking aside, it is a massive game for them.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Because if you lose to TCU, you've got the ETSU game,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: which you'll win, but then you're probably not going to
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: win at Clemson, and you're probably not going to beat
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Notre Dame, so you're sitting there staring one and three
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: going to Pitt. And that's a problem. That's why this
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: game is really, really big. Remember after the first drive
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: last year, we were like, oh, my God. Oh, my God.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Is this going to work? Carolina, are they a player?
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: And then, what, 47 unanswered afterwards? But I don't think.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think anybody wants to see them crash and burn.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Like after the career that he had, you really want
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to see him go four and eight, four and eight,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: and then kind of that's it. I don't think so.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: Bear, I am embarrassed about how much I think about
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: that first drive.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: It's the only drive that Michael Jordan saw.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: Bear.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: We had this– by the way, it's adorable because we
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: all sense it. You're so excited for week zero. You're
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: excited that college football is back. But we had this
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: as a poll question this week. Would Bill Belichick merely
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: just making the playoff this year, would that be the
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: most impressive thing on his resume?
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: God, yes.
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: What?
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. This roster, after that year that
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: they had last year, with so many teams probably already
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: penciled in, that means they beat Miami the most likely
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: in the ACC championship game.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: Right, yes. Which is more impressive than any of the
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: six Super Bowls he's won.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Easily. Easily. There's no Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Corey Dillon,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Teddy Bruschi. There's none of that on this North Carolina team.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: There's no Josh McDaniel. No Mike Vrabel. It's not even
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: close in my mind.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Bear, you mentioned before TCU, the transfers. Because of the
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: transfer portal, because we have no idea who's playing quarterback
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: at which school.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: You do, but most people don't.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Has it kind of changed the way you've approached the
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: season totals and all that stuff in terms of gambling?
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a lot harder.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: It's hard, right? Yeah.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: The one... constant. The one rule that I kind of try.
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: Baseball.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: With a lot of the coaches, a guy like Pat Fitzgerald,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: who's been out of coaching, he's going to Michigan State
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: and they got nothing. They got nothing. They're a solid
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: under team this year. But he's not bringing a team
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: with him from another school like Kurt Cigdetti did or
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: like Bob Chesney is. or like Matt Campbell is. These
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: guys bring a lot of guys down on the portal
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: to their new jobs. They kind of got a leg
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: up on a lot of people. That's why a guy
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: who was just taking the job and wasn't... Same with
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: Bill last year. He was taking a job and he
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: didn't bring a team with him from anywhere. There was
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: nobody who was familiar with him playing college football. I
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: think the teams that kind of bring a coach and
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: he gets a lot of guys with the portal with him,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: that's a big advantage to look at. I always tend
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: to be, and I was just saying we don't want
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: to be pessimistic, but I always tend to be a
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: little bit more on under overall as a blanket statement
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: with teams because I think more can go wrong with
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: unproven players than they can with right. Everything has to
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: go right when you bet an over. When you're betting under,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: there are more ways to win because there's greater variance
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: and there's more possibility to potentially screw things up.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Mikey, you think Bear even looks at the preseason polls?
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: You think he cares about them?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I'm just wondering if he thinks Miami was disrespected in
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: the preseason polls.
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: Of course Bear looks at them. Of course Bear uses
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: them in some sort of mathematical formula to determine whether
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: or not a team is going to hit their over-under
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: and whether or not they're going to be bowl eligible
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: and what the spread of that bowl is going to be.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: The spread of the bowl might be a little bit
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: difficult to come up with just because if it's not
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: a real bowl game, if it's one of these owned
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: and operated ESPN events bowl games, but you're not going
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: to see anybody worth a hell playing in those games.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: But I do think they have some value because you
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: go into the season and you're looking at schedules with
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: teams playing teams that either are expected to be good,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: aren't expected to be good, and I think you can
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: form some opinions. But the one thing you just have
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: to be willing as a voter is to be able
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: to be very focused fluent with, with, with these fluid change,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: these rankings, wild swings from one week to another, uh,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: to kind of represent what you're seeing. But to answer
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: your question about Miami, do I think they were disrespected
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: to where they are? Um, I don't think disrespected. I
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: thought they would, I have them a little bit higher, uh,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: in my, in my ratings. I have them ahead of
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Georgia and I have them ahead of Indiana, but I
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: wouldn't think that Mario Cristobal and the, And the heck
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: there is disappointing with them being ranked with where they are.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: It kind of tempers some of the expectation a little bit.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Some people have been picking them to win the national title.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of people obviously liking Notre Dame. A lot
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: of people obviously liking Oregon. I think there's an opportunity, though,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: for the Canes to be more talented this year than
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: they were last year. If you look at, remember the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Cam Ward offense from a couple years ago? I think
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: we're going to see reminiscent of that. I think they're
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: going to be averaging close to 40 points a game
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: with Mensah and Barquet and Malachi Toney, Josh Moore. Maybe
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: he steps up as well. Fletcher. So I think offensively,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: they have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Defensively,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Moten was the best player on the field in the
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: national title game last year. He and Scott on the interior.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: The secondary is great. So yeah, I would expect the
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: winner of the Miami-Notre Dame game on November 7th potentially
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: to be undefeated and number one in the country.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Darian Metz is interesting because when you consider what Mario
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: and his staff has done with Carson Beck, what they
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: did with Cam Ward, it's interesting that Ments is not
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: mentioned more in terms of a guy who could win
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the Heisman Trophy. He's going to have a monster season
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: in that offense.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: I've got to bet on him a 10-1. I bet
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: both C.J. Carr and Darian Ments that he'll win the
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Heisman Trophy just because of what I was saying there.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: The fact that he's got a security blanket, he brought
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: him from Duke with him, Like, yeah, he is– I
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: think he's going to have a fantastic year. Yeah.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: Bear, I was looking at win totals and trying to
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: figure out which one I like the best, and I've
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: settled on Penn State over 9.5 wins on FanDuel at
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: plus 114.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: Hmm.
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: And it's mostly just because if you're looking at that
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Big Ten schedule, they couldn't have got a more favorable
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: result avoiding Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. How do you
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: think Matt Campbell and that group he's bringing from Ohio
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: State will translate year one in the Big Ten?
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: I think you're in a good position there. And the
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: other hidden thing within their schedule is when they get USC.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: They get USC the week after SC plays Oregon and Washington.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: in consecutive weeks. So that is a hard trip to
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: come east to Penn State, probably going to be the
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: whiteout game, so they'll be a slight favorite in that game.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: So another, despite not getting the Big 3, and you
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: get a little bit of an advantage there against SC,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: who a lot of people think might be the fourth
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: best team in the Big 10. I'm with you, and
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: it kind of goes along with what I was just saying.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Iowa State was a team that played for the Big
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: 12 championship a couple years ago, A lot of those guys,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Rocco Beck is there, Carson Hanson, some of the other
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: guys from that team are with Matt Campbell now in
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: State College. I have always been a closet Iowa State
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Matt Campbell fan. I've loved them. I've loved what he
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: did with his program. The fact that he's now at
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: a place where he's got better facilities, more resources, more money,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: more pay-for-play, NIL-type access, a ridiculously dedicated fan base and
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: a great home field advantage. I think he's going to
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: be great there. I think 10-2 is likely, and if
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: you want to plug in a little bit crazier there,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: or a little bit more risky, you can bet them
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: not only over the 9.5, plus you could probably get
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: close to 350 or so, I think they're maybe even
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: closer to four to one on Penn State's college football playoff.
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: All right, Mikey, are you writing this all down? All
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: of it. The Heisman stuff, everything.
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: That's why he's so quiet.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: He just held up a pad with everything.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: A transcript of this interview. Word for word. Go ahead, Taylor.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: Those Christmas presents aren't going to pay for themselves.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Exactly right. My next cruise isn't going to pay for itself.
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: Not only that, a peek behind the curtain, I will
• 12:53
  Speaker 6: not publish this episode until I place the bets in
• 12:56
  Speaker 6: case the line moves.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Yes, I just took Carolina while he was answering that
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: last question.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: I did that yesterday when the U.S. Open tennis prices
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: were slowly getting posted. And in our tennis chat, I
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: was like, yeah, I really want to bet Brandon Nakashima
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: to win the quarter. But the quarter prices weren't posted yet.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: And finally this morning they got posted. So I finally
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: did get to bet Nakashima at like plus 700 to
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: win his quarter. Now it's out there.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: I love that.
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: I'm trying to find somebody in Maryland or Pennsylvania to
• 13:30
  Speaker 6: place that Heisman bet for me because I can't do
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: it in Connecticut or New York.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Our state sucks, doesn't it? And then I go to
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: New York to record bear bets for Thursday, and I'm like,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: I can't bet any awards in New York either. Horrible.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: But it's going to be awesome when I go to Indiana.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Indiana and Michigan are like the.
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: Wild, wild.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Colorado, I could bet on whatever I want. It's great.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Do I get to give my favorite season win total?
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Yes, we're going to ask you in a second.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: We're going to do all that. Yes, yes, yes.
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: We got it. Mikey's got a pen and a pen out.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: What do you mean? I mean, it's week zero.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: God Bless Football is brought to you by FanDuel. Baseball fans,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: think you know who's hitting a homer today? Well, FanDuel
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: has given you a free chance to call your shot
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: with daily dingers. Joining the action is easy. Just make
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: your free pick on who's hitting a home run in
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: their game. And if you're right, you'll get a profit
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: boost to use on your next bet for a chance
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: at extra winnings. You've got nothing to lose and a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: lot to game. And don't forget, you can make a
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: free pick every day during the MLB season. It's just
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: another reason why FanDuel is the home for home runs. So,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: are you ready to play your game today? Join all
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the action at FanDuel.com slash bless. That's FanDuel.com slash bless
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to play daily dingers and make your free pick on
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: who's hitting a homer. Play ball and swing for the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB.
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: 21 and over in select states for Kansas in affiliation
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: with Kansas Star Casino. 18 and over in D.C., Kentucky,
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: and Wyoming. No purchase necessary.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Opt-in required.
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: 1-800-MY-RESET.
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: Call 1-888-789-7777.
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: Visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland.
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: Visit gamblinghelplinema.org. Call 800-327-5050 in Massachusetts.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY.
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: Text HOPE-NY New York. Call 1-877-770-7867 in Louisiana.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: We ask this question of every guest we've had on.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: It's been a while since we've had you on. Do
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: you think Indiana, like a hardcore Hoosier fan, if you
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: ask them, football school, basketball school, how do you think
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: they would respond?
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: Ooh.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: It probably depends on the age of the person. I
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: think a younger demo would probably now say football. I
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: would still say they're a basketball school. Same.
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: Exactly.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: That's what they're known for. Bob Knight, Indiana basketball, winning
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: national titles. Branch McCracken, Quinn Buckner, undefeated 76. There's still
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: a basketball school in my mind, but I'm glad you
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: brought up Indiana. I'm curious how things are going to go.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: We talked about the preseason rankings, the preseason poll. I
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: was the idiot last year who came on with you
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: guys and said the safest bet of the college football
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: season is for Penn State to make the playoff. And
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: they fired James Franklin by mid-October. So I got totally
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: wrong there. But someone we think is going to be
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: good and someone we think is going to make the
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: college football playoff isn't going to. It's just going to
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: work out that way.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: You look at the trajectory of Indiana and where we
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: were two years ago.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: He's going to say it.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: When they made the playoff, we didn't think they'd be
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: any good. Ohio non-competitive against Ohio State in the regular season,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: non-competitive against Notre Dame in the playoff, didn't beat anybody good.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: So going into last year, we're like, yeah, okay, whatever, fine. Yeah,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: they're really good. Both teams were worth a crap last
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: year to beat them. And then last year they showed
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: up with the JMU guys, the second year there. They
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: added some more guys. They added Mendoza, obviously, in the portal,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: and they beat Oregon twice. They beat Ohio State in
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: the Big Ten championship game. They won the national championship.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: They were really good. However, now their expectations, everybody, like
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: you said, the poll question, are they a football school
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: or a basketball school? But every single high leverage play
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: and situation last year went their way. Every third or
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: fourth down that they needed went their way. The catch
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: at Penn State in the end zone where somehow he
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: gets both feet down went his way. Third to play
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: in the Big Ten Championship game needed the big completion
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: went their way. Special teams against Miami in the National
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Championship game went their way. Hoover, is he going to
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: turn the ball over less frequently like Mendoza did? He
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: didn't turn it over last year. They got like three
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: pick sixes. Just mathematical and logic says they're not going
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: to get every high leverage play against them. Maybe they
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: do lose to Ohio State. Maybe they do lose to Michigan.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Maybe they do lose to USC, and maybe at a
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: nice plus price.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe Indiana could be that team this year that doesn't
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. I love it, yes. One of the
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: fun things I like to look at are the yes-no
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: prices on Vandal and kind of play around with them
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: as to maybe some teams to kind of throw together
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: to miss the playoffs. Remember, too, if you're locking in
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: a plus price on something now– Mm-hmm. Say if they
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: lose a game or two during the regular season, maybe
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: the yes is a plus price and you can kind
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: of play around and guarantee yourself a profit, yes or no,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: whether they do make the playoff.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: He took a page out of my book where I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: have the Seahawks not making the playoffs after winning the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Mikey, did you write all of that down? All of it?
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: Just all the points he made?
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Indiana. Out, Deanna.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Bear.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: Just say it.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: They're not making the playoffs.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Just leave it there for a second.
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: Out, Deanna.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: Go ahead, Taylor.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: Sticking in the Big Ten for a second, Oregon plus
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: 750 to win the national championship. I hate to do
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: this to Dan Lanning, but does this almost feel like
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: a now or never year for this Oregon team?
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: Well, if you talk to people around the program and
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: Jeff Schwartz who went to your Oregon, played at Oregon,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: played in the NFL, even before last year, said 2026
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: is the year for Oregon. And everything kind of lines up.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: with the schedule, the fact that Dante Moore came back.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: They have arguably the best defensive line in the country,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: a great secondary, and they get a guy in Clay
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: Parrish who was very experienced, who played at Minnesota, and
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: now he's at Oregon to replace Dylan Tieneman, who went
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: to the NFL. DeCorey and Moore and Evan Stewart both back,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: a great tight end, and Jamari Johnson, one-two punch at
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: running back. If you're saying their offensive line is the issue,
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: and I just trust Oregon to to crank out offensive linemen.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: They're a great offensive line factory, kind of like Miami.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: You just got to trust that their offensive lines are
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: going to be good. But yeah, it kind of is.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: And the good thing, if you're an Oregon fan or
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: backer or better, it's kind of Dan Lanning has embraced that.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: He basically said, it's time. It's time we go out
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: there and do it. The last three years have been
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: kind of the, okay, we've won all the games against
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: everyone we should win and the teams that we've lost
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: to have all played for the national championship. So he's
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: kind of got this wrap of like unable to win
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: the big game, but Jim Harbaugh was unable to win
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: the big game until he won the big game. You
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: go back to the day Tom Osborne couldn't win the
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: big game until he won the big, Bobby Bowden couldn't
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: win the big game until the big, you can't win
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: the big game until you finally ultimately do win the
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: big game. So I think Oregon has the fewest amount
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: of questions of any of the national championship contenders this year.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: And I certainly think, that they are a logical contender
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: to win the national championship. And I would not be
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: surprised if they do it this year at all.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: We'll get to your season totals and picks for this
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: weekend's games in just a second. But you mentioned, and
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: you're right, by the way, there's a team that we
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: think is going to make the playoffs. They're not going
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. There's teams that are outside the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: top 12 right now that are likely going to make
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Who's a team that might surprise some people
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: this year? A team that's kind of outside looking in
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: right now. It's preseason polls.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Who cares? You care.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: But they're on the outside looking in and you think, Hey,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: they might have a big season, good schedule, have a
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: chance to make the playoff.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: I think Washington is that team for me.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, they're, so they're, what are, what are
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: they ranked the preseason 19? I think in coaching, I'm
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: like 19 and coaches, 17, uh, NAP. I think if
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: you look at Washington, uh, they kind of go as
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: their quarterback, DeMond Williams didn't, he certainly had a, NIL
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: transfer saga. Was he going to go to LSU or
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: did he stay? And he wound up staying, but they
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: got out. If you, uh, Mikey was talking about like
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: those metrics and Taylor was talking about North Carolina's metric.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: If you look at a lot of like the schedule adjusted, uh,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: power ratings for Washington last year, they were better than
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: their record indicated there. Their problem was when they went
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: on the road, they just fell apart. They fell apart
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: at Michigan. They fell apart in a couple of other games, uh, Like,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: they have a really good opportunity, I think, to be
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: undefeated when they play USC.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: And with Williams and some of the receivers that they have,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: they've got a really good linebacking core. Like, Washington could
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: be someone that is outside that top 10, 12 right
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: now that could do it. Another team, I think, if
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: you're looking for a real, like, long shot type team
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: to maybe.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: We always are.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Maybe win a conference title or get to the conference
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: championship game. Kansas State is someone that I like. They
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: get a very favorable Big 12 schedule. Now, I don't
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: think they are as good as BYU. I don't think
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: they're as good as Utah. I don't think they're as
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: good as Texas Tech. They don't play any of them
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: until ultimately maybe they get to Arlington. So I think
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: K-State at a good price, maybe Colin Klein in his
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: first year there can get Avery Johnson and that team
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: back on track after a disappointing year last year. So
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: it's a case in that. And again, why I say
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: they could be a bet to get there. And if
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: you can bet them 20 to one, 22 to one, whatever, uh,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: to win the big 12 and they get to the
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: big 12 championship game, there probably are markets out there
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: where you can bet them just to get to the
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: conference title game. But if they get there, not only
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: do you have the ticket on them to win it,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: you can play around in there and maybe play the
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: opposite side, uh, on the money ladder, whatever, and kind
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: of create your own arbitrage situation there. So those are
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: a couple of teams that I've played around with.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: All right. Win totals. Let's get to them.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Mikey, how many win total bets do you think Bear
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: has so far before the season has started?
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: Week zero kicks off tomorrow. I think like 15.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would probably put it.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: In the 20s.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: The 20s is a little over. I have to go
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: back and count. I think 15 is a good guess.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Probably between 10 and 15 for sure.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: All right, so how do you want to do this?
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: You want to give us your top three or four here?
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we'll do that. I'll give you my top three.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: How about that? Okay, top three.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Top three season win totals for college football this year.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: My favorite win total is Alabama under 8.5.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Under, wow, okay.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: I think there is this.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: That means DeBoer's fired after the season. I mean, under
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: eight and a half.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: During the season.
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: Yes, or during.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: That would be an interesting question.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: To see if he does get fired, if that's the case.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: But I think there's this delusion amongst the SEC fan
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: base and whatever about everyone kind of thinks their team
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: is 10-2 and going to win the SEC title and
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs. Like, Most of this league is
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: going to fall between 8-4 and 9-3. And I think Alabama,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: the lasting impression of them from basically quitting in the
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Rose Bowl last year when Indiana absolutely embarrassed and manhandled them,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: that's stuck in my head. Their run game has been
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: non-existent the last couple of years under Kalen DeBoer and
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Ryan Grubb as coordinator. While there's a lot of potential
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: and optimism for Kalen Russell, we've got to see it.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Their offensive line really wasn't great. I mean, look, this
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: is a team that lost to Florida State by double
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: digits last year, Tallahassee. They were not competitive in that game.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: And then they get Florida State at home, and you
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: look at the schedule, and yeah, they could be 5-0
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: after that game, but the bottom, the back seven games
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: in the schedule, like outside of the FCS game against Chattanooga,
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: like they could potentially lose to any of those teams.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: So I got to see it from Alabama to believe it.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: I think this is a program that takes another step
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: back this year. I don't think this team, talent-wise, is
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: near as good as the team from last year. So
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I took Alabama under 8.5 at 9-plus price.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: All right. Thank you for filling enough time there for
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: me to put that bet in. Go ahead, Taylor.
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: I'm looking at Alabama's schedule, like Bear mentioned. There's a
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: four-game stretch where they're home against Georgia, at Tennessee, home
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: against Texas A & M, At LSU.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Wow. Gauntlet.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, that could be four losses right there.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: Yes. Yes. I like it.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: You're winning your bet by the end of October.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Uh, give us your, uh, your second best, your second, uh,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: best win total bet on college football this year.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Uh, Nebraska under six and a half.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Wow. Wow. There are people that are dead off OB
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: on this. And that's fine. Thinking that Nebraska, uh, finally
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: has a quarterback with Calandria that, um, Matt Rule can
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: work with. I don't know. Again, I got to see it.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Calandria was not very good at Virginia in a P4 league.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: He was much better last year against a group of
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: five with UNLV. So can he get that type of
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: play from him this year? We'll see. This is a
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: team that has been dominated by Iowa in recent years.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: They have not beaten a ranked team under Matt Rule.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: I think Matt Rule personally has lost like 19 straight
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: games against ranked teams. And if you look at the schedule,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: they go to Oregon, they got Ohio State, they go
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: to Iowa, they got Indiana, got Washington, they go to Illinois. Again,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: you look at the back end of that schedule. Who's
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: to say Maryland doesn't even go in there? Maryland could
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of a sneak this year. But
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: the back end of that schedule, outside of a trip
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: to Rutgers, any of those games are losable. People are
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: optimistic that Matt Rule can finally get a, a team
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: on the up here. And like I was joking about
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: before this time of year, everybody's optimistic. Everybody's going to
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: the bowl. Everybody's the best team I've ever had. We're
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: in the best shape. We got the most depth.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Everyone's saying it's not all going to play out that way.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: So I, again, under six and a half Nebraska, I'd
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: be surprised if this team won seven.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: The Matt rule gets fired too. I would imagine if
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: they go under six and a half.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: He just gave him a huge deal.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: You can't get a huge deal and come out and
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: have five wins. I mean, you can't do it.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: He leveraged the Penn state job into a huge deal.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: You're right. You're right. You're right. Yes. He was a
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: candidate at Penn state.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: I'm sorry.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: Stop yelling at me. I mean, you're right. I said, sorry.
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: Stop saying things.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Listen, I said if Ryan Day went winless this year,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: he would still have the Ohio State job.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: Am I wrong?
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: No, you're dead right.
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: Yes!
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: He's not getting going. Stop.
• 29:24
  Speaker 6: Hold on a second.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: Let me rephrase it.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Everybody calm down.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Calm down. Ryan Day, he was on the show with us.
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: He goes winless.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: I was making the point that the guy went from
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the least amount of job security to the most amount
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: of job security of any coach in America.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: But he loses.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: He goes winless this year. They lose to Kent State.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Who's the other state they play, Taylor?
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: Ball State.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: They're going to lose to Ball State and Kent State,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: two of the first three games. And you're telling me
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: if that all plays out, he's going to come back
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: and be the Ohio State coach next year.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: And Michigan.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Yes. He says yes.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Yes, yes. He gets a winless year. He does.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: You're removed from a national championship.
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: And everybody in Columbus is so level-headed.
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: Rational, yeah.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Without a doubt. A very sensible, rational fan base.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: I found an expert to agree with me. Let's leave
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: it alone. I want to leave it right there. No
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: more follow-ups.
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: I got to tell you, I'm considering throwing this entire
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: paper out.
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Don't you dare take a picture of it and send
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: it to me.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Take a picture of it and send it over.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Anyway, your last win total, your best win total bet
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: you've made this year.
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: Or your third.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry, your third. Yeah, your third.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: I went out of order.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Bronze level play is finally an over.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I like betting unders. Like I said, I bet Toledo.
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: over seven and a half wins. I think there is
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: this narrative out there that like them losing Jason Candle
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: is like this terrible thing. As a better, like Jason
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Candle as a double digit favorite was like an auto
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: bet against. Like no coach out there in recent years
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: lost more games as double digit favorites than Jason Candle
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: at Toledo, who's now at UConn. He took some players
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: with him, but by Jacobs, the guy who's taken over
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: for him is an Ohio guy. He was a Trestle guy.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Ohio State guy, like he's bringing a lot of his
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: team with him from Mercer, who Mercer was very, very
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: competitive in some of the FBS games that they played.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: It's an FCS playoff team. So it's not necessarily this
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: talent drop like people might think that it is. I
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: think his team is very capable of winning eight games.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: And the Mac is not a, the Mac is from
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: the middle down. The Mac is really, really bad. So
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: to say that they can't go to the MAAC and
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: win eight games and challenge Western Michigan and whoever else
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: for a MAAC championship, I think that's underselling the job
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: that I think Jacobs is going to do at Toledo.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: So I think Toledo 8-4 is very, very possible.
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: Bear, I feel like one of the most common picks
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I've seen for a team that could go over their
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: win total is Oklahoma State over 6.5. And right now
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: on FanDuel, the over would be plus 104 where do
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: you kind of land on that with oklahoma state having
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: a pretty big quarterback upgrade with mess maker coming over
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: from north texas.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: It is i am always uh hesitant in getting behind
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of these popular uh over trendy plays with
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: the new coaches and again this is a situation where
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: again Morris brings Mestemaker and a bunch of guys from
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: North Texas with him. But looking at Mestemaker's couple of
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: games that he played against real teams last year, like
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: the last couple of games of the season against San
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Diego State and Tulane, he threw five picks. It doesn't
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: mean he's going to struggle here, but even against the
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Big 12, which isn't a great league, it's still a
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: step up in competition. And you look at the schedule
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: that they have. They have a home game against Oregon
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: that they're not going to win tonight. They've got a
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: home game against Texas Tech that they're not going to win.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: I think that opening game against Tulsa is dangerous. Tulsa's
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: a sneaky team in the American. They were really improved
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: last year from where that program has been. I might
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: be looking at Tulsa next week in that game. But
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: the rest of the game, a little sneak preview there.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: Yes, I love that.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: They go to Houston. They go to Kansas State. They
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: go to Arizona State. I think 6-6 is the ceiling
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: for Oklahoma State. I would be betting under.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, Taylor.
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: Stu, Tulsa is the rare quarterback who's named after another
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: college football team, Baylor Hayes.
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: Oh, wow. I could play that game all day.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: Two last names.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: We'll do NFL with you next week, but real quick
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: on the way out, we're excited to see you. We're
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: excited that football is back. One bet this week. If
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: you had to make one bet this week, what are
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: you doing this weekend?
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: Hot. I laid the floor with Virginia, and I know
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Taylor's pretty dialed into the ACC as well. I think
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: there's this narrative about NC State being a very popular,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: trendy team this year, and I get it with C.J.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Daniels back. But just from me being kind of dialed
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: in with Miami, if JoJo Trader was reliable, he'd still
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: be at Miami as a wide receiver. He's someone that's trendy.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: He played with Bailey in high school. So I think
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: people think NC State are going to be a team
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: on the improve, and maybe they can be, but they
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: got decimated in the portal. We'll see what the guys
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: that they brought in, if they can produce. Defensively, I
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: think they're going to have some problems. This number dropped from, what, six,
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: six and a half to four. I think, obviously, that's
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: because of the injuries that UVA has with Kent Robinson,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: a linebacker who missed most of last year, and the
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: last year, rather, and wide receiver transfer they brought in.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: But I think with Pobula, the dual threat guy, I
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: think Tony Elliott's offense is still going to be really,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: really good. So I expect maybe a higher-scoring game. But
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: once we hit four in this game and a lot
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: of money coming in on the underdog and the injury
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: report coming out, I was like, you know what? I
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: think this is a good buy-low opportunity on Virginia. So
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I laid the four with the Hoos.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: All right, college football is back. It's always great to
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: see you, Bear. Bears, bets, check it out wherever you
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: get your podcasts. And we will talk to you next week.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: We'll do some NFL, and we'll break down week zero.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: See if you were right on Virginia and yell at
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: you if you're not.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: You're gonna yell at me anyway which I like you
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: know Mikey told us keep our voices.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Down Mikey is analyzing every word you said he hasn't
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: said a word.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: He's writing stuff
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Down he's putting it all in right now as we
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: speak Bear we love you we'll talk to you next
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: week it's always great to see you buddy great guys