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NFL Trends for Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:15
Speaker 1: am Chad Moman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:21
Speaker 1: Joining me today is my co host, my companion, my compadre,
0:26
Speaker 1: and my bff, Professional Better, Simon Hunter.
0:30
Speaker 2: Heato.
0:31
Speaker 3: So I then, hello, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
0:35
Speaker 3: Let me see m tell me?
0:37
Speaker 1: We got a great email over the weekend from one
0:40
Speaker 1: of our listeners named Chloe, because we had Chris Long
0:44
Speaker 1: and the show, and we talked about how you were
0:50
Speaker 1: not able to find a female companion, and we joked
0:54
Speaker 1: that all you have to do is say one of
0:57
Speaker 1: the reasons you can't is because you're professional better, and
1:00
Speaker 1: that is kryptonite. Chloe wisely pointed out that not all
1:03
Speaker 1: women would would avoid dating a guy who is a
1:10
Speaker 1: professional better, but at least there's a couple of things. One,
1:16
Speaker 1: I want you to share the reasons why you think that. Two,
1:19
Speaker 1: when I introduce our guest, he will be the proof
1:22
Speaker 1: of what Chloe is saying because he and his wife
1:30
Speaker 1: are great a great pair as gamblers.
1:35
Speaker 3: Okay, well, first of all, I'm going to hit you
1:36
Speaker 3: with a one so one, I have no problems for
1:39
Speaker 3: my companions. That's not an issue. It's having someone to
1:42
Speaker 3: date long term is issue. Shout out to Chloe. She's
1:46
Speaker 3: in the New York Philadelphia area. Reach out to your boy.
1:49
Speaker 3: But yeah, if there's no issues getting the dates, it's
1:51
Speaker 3: like the problem is the third or fourth date, and
1:54
Speaker 3: there's just no way, easy way to bring it up,
1:56
Speaker 3: because it's not like I'm the dude in the couch like, yeah,
1:58
Speaker 3: don't worry, I'm only betting ten dollars a game. And
2:01
Speaker 3: the story I told you was I had this girl
2:03
Speaker 3: I really liked, but she was I mean, the best
2:07
Speaker 3: way described is she was very straight, like she's not stiff,
2:10
Speaker 3: but kind of a stiff personality, like robably didn't smoke
2:13
Speaker 3: a cigarette until she was like twenty three, and it
2:15
Speaker 3: was when she was blacked out drunk, like just a
2:17
Speaker 3: good girl. She comes over. She took on a Sunday.
2:20
Speaker 3: The Eagles already played, so she's like, I come over,
2:22
Speaker 3: go yeah, no problem, Like, come over, I'm just watching football.
2:25
Speaker 3: And she comes over and I'm watching the Cleveland Browns
2:27
Speaker 3: and the Tennessee Titans, and I'm going ape shit about
2:30
Speaker 3: this fumble and she goes, why do you care the
2:32
Speaker 3: Eagles won. This is the Browns. I go casual and
2:35
Speaker 3: I anything I go, I have one hundred K on
2:37
Speaker 3: the Browns. Here she just turned all white chat and
2:40
Speaker 3: literally before I can explain myself, she was already out
2:42
Speaker 3: the door, number blocked. And so that that's was my
2:45
Speaker 3: whole point. I had no problem finding these dates. It's
2:48
Speaker 3: just getting them to stay around when they know what
2:50
Speaker 3: I do. Because if you don't know the whole story.
2:52
Speaker 3: If I'm on a date with a girl she's telling
2:54
Speaker 3: me she's got one hundred K on the Browns, I'm
2:56
Speaker 3: leaving too. I think she's an idiot. I'm like, why
2:58
Speaker 3: do you got that kind of money on the Browns?
3:00
Speaker 3: So no fault to her. I see where's coming from.
3:02
Speaker 3: But yes, please Chad hit me with your story. You
3:04
Speaker 3: know I love a good Chad Moment story.
3:06
Speaker 1: My story is the opposite, which is you just need
3:09
Speaker 1: to marry someone who was so uninterested in what you do,
3:13
Speaker 1: so unimpressed. You could literally record a podcast in an
3:19
Speaker 1: office you are sharing with her at the time, and
3:24
Speaker 1: she will still not know you have a podcast, what
3:28
Speaker 1: you do for a living, what betting is, or how
3:31
Speaker 1: it is we're paying for our lifestyle, just love just
3:36
Speaker 1: doesn't care at all. However, however, our guests today, one
3:42
Speaker 1: of our favorite guests, a regular contributor to the Favorites.
3:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, like Evan, like you know, Tito, Matt Mitchell. There
3:50
Speaker 3: are our brothers on this show. This is our other brother, right.
3:53
Speaker 1: It's our other brother. It's our other brother, it's our
3:56
Speaker 1: other betting brother. We're talking about our director of research,
4:00
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. He will deliver us as top ten NFL.
4:04
Speaker 1: I want to say Week one trends, but that feels
4:06
Speaker 1: too narrow, Like this is really about NFL betting trends
4:10
Speaker 1: that we can apply to week one, but things to
4:13
Speaker 1: think about. Welcome to the show, Evan, who actually has
4:16
Speaker 1: a great love story.
4:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I got a lot to say about this.
4:20
Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep it to I'm gonna keep it to
4:22
Speaker 2: like a minute or so here. But I do have
4:25
Speaker 2: a wife. We got married two years ago in Costa Rica.
4:27
Speaker 2: That should say enough in itself. But the fact is
4:31
Speaker 2: is she loves to gamble. But you had to slow
4:33
Speaker 2: roll it. Guys, Like first date, I work in sports,
4:36
Speaker 2: you know, Second date, you know I enjoy finance. You know,
4:40
Speaker 2: you gotta you gotta work your way up to what
4:43
Speaker 2: possibly could be and then Simon, I mean, one hundred
4:46
Speaker 2: k could have been one hundred dollars and then a
4:49
Speaker 2: week later could have slow rolled potentially what is uh,
4:53
Speaker 2: I'm the curtain. Yeah, yeah, I know there's ways, there's
4:56
Speaker 2: there's ways to potentially figure it her, but it is
5:00
Speaker 2: definitely taboo. But legalizations helped a lot of things have
5:03
Speaker 2: helped throughout the years. Especially Hey, listen, I've got a job.
5:07
Speaker 2: I've worked for ESPN in the past. There's certain pillars
5:10
Speaker 2: maybe you try to stand on when you get the
5:13
Speaker 2: eyebrow right, so it's all good, but it's pure love here.
5:18
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, now we get to talk about whatever.
5:20
Speaker 2: She loves tennis, betting, especially women's tennis, so we went
5:24
Speaker 2: to French Open. There's also there's lots of positives.
5:26
Speaker 1: Here, Evan, Yeah, finance, finance.
5:34
Speaker 2: And you gotta slow roll it.
5:37
Speaker 1: When did you ultimately reveal that you were someone who
5:42
Speaker 1: loved betting so much? You moved to Vegas after college
5:45
Speaker 1: and eventually came to work for me for free as
5:48
Speaker 1: a gambling researcher when I had a column at ESPN.
5:51
Speaker 2: It made it easy because I believe, like in day two.
5:53
Speaker 2: She brought it up first as we were starting. She
5:57
Speaker 2: was like, oh, I love Las Vegas. I've been to
6:00
Speaker 2: Las Vegas a ton of times. And I'm like, okay, here's.
6:02
Speaker 3: Even just said himself, this is the one.
6:04
Speaker 2: This is it, Like, I'm never leaving this table. So yeah, great.
6:09
Speaker 2: Everything was the fact that she brought it up. If
6:11
Speaker 2: she hadn't gone down that path, it probably would have
6:14
Speaker 2: been the same as all the others.
6:16
Speaker 1: To be then you brought out Then you brought out
6:18
Speaker 1: your folder of gold sheets from nineteen seventy five so
6:23
Speaker 1: you can review all the odds that you are memorizing,
6:27
Speaker 1: so you can do research for week one.
6:30
Speaker 2: Correct. She's like, why are you watching cricket? You know,
6:32
Speaker 2: We've had lots of conversations since then, so it's all right, you're.
6:35
Speaker 1: Watching cricket because it's a pretty great great sport.
6:38
Speaker 3: It's great American sport. We should say.
6:40
Speaker 1: Great American sport. It is a bet on as a
6:43
Speaker 1: reminder of the Favorites. Podcast is presented by bet three
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Speaker 1: the Favorites live on YouTube. For those who joining on YouTube,
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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
7:35
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, we got a whole
7:41
Speaker 1: host of topics that we want to get through, Evan,
7:46
Speaker 1: I might just throw some out at you in various
7:51
Speaker 1: order Matt Mitchell's order. Then in the script, I don't
7:56
Speaker 1: want to go that way.
7:57
Speaker 2: Perfect.
7:58
Speaker 1: First thing I want to talk about out week one
8:04
Speaker 1: Super Bowl hangover, because I do believe, I do believe
8:10
Speaker 1: we've got some pretty crazy expectations for the San Francisco
8:16
Speaker 1: forty nine ers in Week one. Set the scene. When
8:19
Speaker 1: are they playing? Who are they playing? What is the line?
8:23
Speaker 1: How should we approach a potential hangover?
8:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this one's pretty easy. San Francisco is now
8:29
Speaker 2: minus five and a half Monday Night football against the Jets.
8:32
Speaker 2: I know, Jets, Monday Night football again. Can't believe they
8:34
Speaker 2: did that to them. But the thing is, it's already moving.
8:37
Speaker 2: So this was one of the few lines it's already
8:39
Speaker 2: had a little bit of a tweak. It opened at six,
8:43
Speaker 2: now down to five and a half. So Jets getting
8:45
Speaker 2: a little bit of love here, and maybe the hangover
8:48
Speaker 2: is a storyline for some people. So since two thousand,
8:52
Speaker 2: fading the Super Bowl loser in Week one has been
8:55
Speaker 2: just a great bet. It is ten and fourteen straight up,
8:58
Speaker 2: and I'll talk about that in a second, right up angle.
9:00
Speaker 2: It's usually the line that's kind of tweaking. And so
9:03
Speaker 2: the ten and fourteen straight up, five and nineteen against
9:06
Speaker 2: the spread dating back to two thousand now when their
9:09
Speaker 2: favorite over a field goal nine and four straight up,
9:12
Speaker 2: four and nine against the spread, So it's usually a
9:15
Speaker 2: tight win. Now, last year super Bowl winner, super Bowl loser. Sorry,
9:19
Speaker 2: actually came through and covered and won.
9:21
Speaker 3: But if you remember another side of that one, I
9:23
Speaker 3: can't remember, right, Yeah, I think we lost on what
9:25
Speaker 3: a two pointer?
9:26
Speaker 2: Evan?
9:26
Speaker 3: Is that?
9:27
Speaker 1: Yeah?
9:27
Speaker 2: Very c I was gonna say it's very close. It
9:29
Speaker 2: was a tight up into the end. Eagles really played
9:31
Speaker 2: down to the Patriots in that game, but ended up
9:34
Speaker 2: covering in the end. But it's it's been pretty interesting
9:37
Speaker 2: throughout the years, last seven years, five and two straight up,
9:43
Speaker 2: but it's like two and five against the spread. Again,
9:45
Speaker 2: it's usually about a field.
9:47
Speaker 1: Goal game, Simon, this is one game I thought we'd
9:52
Speaker 1: make it our big balls bet of the week on
9:57
Speaker 1: the Jets. I didn't want to go there. You didn't
10:00
Speaker 1: want to go there because you love the Niners. You
10:02
Speaker 1: got the Niners as your best power rated team.
10:05
Speaker 3: But it's brutal too because people know, like I love
10:07
Speaker 3: the Jets, like it's like talking out both sides of
10:09
Speaker 3: them out. But it's again, like the Jets lose that one,
10:12
Speaker 3: then they went five straight. Just feels like that's how
10:14
Speaker 3: it's gonna break. But I know these trends, and Evan
10:16
Speaker 3: knows I love fading the spot and That's what's so
10:18
Speaker 3: brutal is I keep feeling like the forty nine ers
10:21
Speaker 3: of the Unicorn team, right, they didn't lose a bunch
10:23
Speaker 3: of coaches. They don't you lose a bunch of players.
10:26
Speaker 3: I mean they're paying their quarterback nine hundred k. I
10:28
Speaker 3: mean talking about craziness. I saw who was it was
10:33
Speaker 3: guy the Guy Riddick, whoever was for the Jets, or
10:35
Speaker 3: whoever it was someone in manatory MINDI camp they forfeited
10:39
Speaker 3: seven hundred K of their salary. So they literally forfeited
10:41
Speaker 3: what party's gonna make pretty much for the season. So
10:44
Speaker 3: that's I'm right there with Evan. Like last year, I
10:47
Speaker 3: thought we made a great bet and it's a sick
10:49
Speaker 3: bet too, where we covered the Patriots because me and
10:51
Speaker 3: you got at five and a half six in June
10:54
Speaker 3: and then obviously by game day I think it was
10:57
Speaker 3: three and a half, which we played like idiots and
10:59
Speaker 3: contest because we love the number, and we lost by
11:02
Speaker 3: the hook, right, we lost on the two pointers. So
11:05
Speaker 3: with all these trends like Evan's talking about here, people,
11:08
Speaker 3: I do think if you do love betting these trends,
11:10
Speaker 3: you have to stick to it. And me I just
11:12
Speaker 3: use this as another tool. So it's like, I'm not
11:14
Speaker 3: dug in, but if you were worried about taking the
11:18
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, good, don't take it then, like, this
11:21
Speaker 3: is another reason. Evan's kind of giving you another reason
11:23
Speaker 3: not to take them. And if you want to back
11:24
Speaker 3: the Jets, this is another great reason to be like, well,
11:26
Speaker 3: it gives you more confidence to bet the Jets because
11:28
Speaker 3: historically you're playing a good number, which again, I just
11:30
Speaker 3: want to go to Raiaro with trends. Here Evan says
11:32
Speaker 3: it all the time. It's not the end all be
11:34
Speaker 3: all for him either. It's just another tool in the
11:36
Speaker 3: arsenal to use.
11:37
Speaker 1: Tread Lightley, you mentioned that Eagles Patriots game. We freaking
11:43
Speaker 1: love the Patriots and we love the Jets in Week
11:47
Speaker 1: one against the Bills, and here here's a very specific scene.
11:52
Speaker 1: I remember first Monday of the NFL season, I had
11:58
Speaker 1: to go meet someone for lunch in Stamford, Connecticut, which
12:02
Speaker 1: is about ninety minutes from my house in West.
12:05
Speaker 3: Hertford, Stanford, Connecticut.
12:08
Speaker 1: I'm feeling so sick to my stomach the whole day
12:12
Speaker 1: because we went too and no, we went one in
12:16
Speaker 1: three to start the weekend and our worst loss was
12:21
Speaker 1: that Patriots loss, which was gut wrenching, heart breaking. You
12:27
Speaker 1: look back and you're like, oh my god. And I
12:30
Speaker 1: remember on the way back from lunch that day, I
12:32
Speaker 1: was listening to Evan and Joe Glante in the Monday
12:36
Speaker 1: episode of the Action Network podcast, and like Evan had
12:41
Speaker 1: so many great thoughts on how to bet Monday night,
12:43
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson was on. He was talking about early Leans
12:46
Speaker 1: for week two already, and I like, I almost had
12:51
Speaker 1: to pull over to the side of the ninety five highway,
12:52
Speaker 1: like inter State ninety five, because I could not fathom
12:58
Speaker 1: what the night was going to be like where we
13:00
Speaker 1: desperately needed the Jets to go two and three in
13:03
Speaker 1: the contest.
13:06
Speaker 3: A little did you know it all? A hinge on
13:08
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson.
13:09
Speaker 1: What a night, Jack Wilson, what a night, indeed the
13:11
Speaker 1: moment of his life. But it also is like one
13:13
Speaker 1: of those things where you look back and we did
13:16
Speaker 1: this heading into week two, and we will do this
13:17
Speaker 1: again throughout the year. You look at the whole record
13:21
Speaker 1: and you're like, wow, that was I was a real
13:23
Speaker 1: kick in the dick. But if you look at it
13:25
Speaker 1: like individually, game by game, a tweak. Here a line, here,
13:33
Speaker 1: a penalty here, Balan, it's like you're you actually weren't
13:37
Speaker 1: that far off, and it gives you a little bit
13:39
Speaker 1: of a handrail on the roller coaster to get on
13:43
Speaker 1: with your life, you know. All right? Another team we
13:49
Speaker 1: love this year, Evan Indianapolis Colts. Shane Steichen to me,
13:57
Speaker 1: really proving himself to be one of the best the
14:00
Speaker 1: young coaches in the NFL what he did with Gardner
14:03
Speaker 1: Minshew and the Colts and putting them in sort of
14:07
Speaker 1: contention the way they were after Anthony Richardson went down.
14:10
Speaker 1: That was to me, all Shane Steichen, Anthony and Richardson
14:13
Speaker 1: is back, He's throwing fine, he'll be playing for the Colts.
14:17
Speaker 1: We were really excited about him. Colts opening season woes.
14:24
Speaker 1: Should we be wary?
14:26
Speaker 2: First of all, this is one of the two games
14:28
Speaker 2: where the lines moved a full point already. It was
14:30
Speaker 2: Indy one and a half, now it's two and a half.
14:33
Speaker 2: So Houston not only their line has gotten crazy like
14:37
Speaker 2: down to twelve to one to win the Super Bowl
14:38
Speaker 2: after all the additions, but the week one line is
14:40
Speaker 2: already rolling. So Houston mine is two and a half
14:43
Speaker 2: in Indy now this one's gone through multiple quarterbacks, multiple coaches.
14:48
Speaker 2: This just seems to be a franchise trend that continues
14:52
Speaker 2: to hit. So since two thousand and eight, the Colts
14:55
Speaker 2: are two thirteen and one straight up, one fourteen and
14:58
Speaker 2: one against the spread in Week one, including owen six
15:01
Speaker 2: against the spread when they face an AFC South opponent,
15:04
Speaker 2: which they are here the fun one. In the last
15:07
Speaker 2: twenty years, only Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning have won
15:11
Speaker 2: or covered a Week one game for Indy, So it's
15:14
Speaker 2: basically been all the characters through the door. No one's
15:17
Speaker 2: been able to start the season on a positive note.
15:19
Speaker 2: I thought a funny question for you guys might have been,
15:21
Speaker 2: can you start naming any other Week one Colt starting
15:24
Speaker 2: quarterbacks other than those two? Because it has been a
15:27
Speaker 2: litany of different people.
15:30
Speaker 1: Give me a clue, Give me, give me a clue.
15:32
Speaker 2: So Anthony Richardson's won since he did it already. He
15:36
Speaker 2: got Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Oh my god. Rivers, Jacoby Brissette,
15:43
Speaker 2: Scott Tolzine, and Carrie Collins are the all the quarterbacks
15:47
Speaker 2: that have lost for the Colts that they've basically picked
15:49
Speaker 2: up off the graves. So to say, to bring into
15:52
Speaker 2: their organization to try to start them up later in
15:54
Speaker 2: their careers, and it's been terrible. Now Anthony Richardson a
15:56
Speaker 2: completely different story, even though we did see him last year.
16:00
Speaker 2: After that, he progressed very well until his injury. So
16:04
Speaker 2: we'll see home dog in that sage. Now. The one
16:06
Speaker 2: thing I will say, which is an interesting thing, India
16:09
Speaker 2: is six and one against the spread in week two
16:11
Speaker 2: last seven years. So this has worked absolutely perfectly in
16:14
Speaker 2: the sense that they've started crappy and they've bounced back,
16:18
Speaker 2: and it's almost happened every single year, so we'll see it.
16:20
Speaker 3: I just want just want to say the line movement
16:22
Speaker 3: could be based off Anthony Richardson. Apparently he's resting right now.
16:26
Speaker 3: Right he's not throwing completely and people are a little
16:28
Speaker 3: worried that shoulders not fully healed. So a lot of
16:31
Speaker 3: pros I've talked to they just went right away as
16:33
Speaker 3: soon as they saw that he was working on throwing
16:35
Speaker 3: lefty because he didn't want to throw righty that day
16:37
Speaker 3: because there was a rest day. I know some guys
16:39
Speaker 3: who just took a position on the other siders, just
16:41
Speaker 3: like dude, this dude, he might not just be right
16:43
Speaker 3: ever again, Like that's kind of thing where you kind
16:45
Speaker 3: of have that shoulder injury and guys don't come back
16:47
Speaker 3: right from him. So I get the hesitation. I'm just
16:50
Speaker 3: I'm not worried about it. I don't think Chad is either.
16:52
Speaker 3: If this gets to three, we already liked it, it's
16:55
Speaker 3: gonna we'll go down with a ship. But that's nothing
16:57
Speaker 3: to remember, Chad. We won't get pissed to Anthony Richardson,
17:00
Speaker 3: we do not cover. We gotta we gotta ride that
17:02
Speaker 3: second trend right, take them next week if we.
17:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I betted it one and a half. Maybe if
17:08
Speaker 1: it gets to three, that's a contest play Yeah, sure,
17:13
Speaker 1: two and a half.
17:14
Speaker 3: It's like that's that's what feels like a great number.
17:16
Speaker 1: It's a hard one, but like, think about that graveyard
17:19
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Carson, Wentz, Philip Rivers, Like.
17:24
Speaker 3: In our view of Frank right, I mean, come on,
17:26
Speaker 3: Like we don't have the highest praise of that guy either,
17:29
Speaker 3: seeing what he did with that Carolina team and how
17:31
Speaker 3: underprepared they were.
17:33
Speaker 1: We definitely feel better about Shane Steichen.
17:37
Speaker 2: I like Indian this game. I think it's gonna go
17:39
Speaker 2: up and who's the back of Flacco? So I mean
17:41
Speaker 2: if Richardson can't go, he'll cover for us.
17:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, battered Flaco.
17:47
Speaker 3: You know, Tad those we love Flacco as a dog
17:49
Speaker 3: and we fade as a favorite, as simple as that.
17:51
Speaker 1: That's so true, by the way, it's so true, so true.
17:54
Speaker 1: Speaking a favorite, the losing favorite bounce back. I don't
18:00
Speaker 1: know what this means, Evan. I want you to explain it,
18:02
Speaker 1: because how can there be a losing favorite bouncing back
18:06
Speaker 1: in week one?
18:07
Speaker 2: So again, this was the one topic to not a
18:10
Speaker 2: week one er. Everything else is going to be week one.
18:13
Speaker 2: This is something that a probably something you should watch
18:16
Speaker 2: out for early in the season. But be all of
18:18
Speaker 2: these ten or eleven things we talk about, I'll be
18:21
Speaker 2: writing about earlier in the year, I'll be tweeting about it,
18:23
Speaker 2: we'll talk about on the podcast, so you're not going
18:25
Speaker 2: to miss any of these spots that we talk about.
18:28
Speaker 2: But this one is a bit of a look ahead spot.
18:30
Speaker 2: So early in the season, we're talking first six weeks,
18:34
Speaker 2: teams coming off a loss as a favorite are simply
18:37
Speaker 2: fifty five percent against the spread in their next game, blanket,
18:40
Speaker 2: no questions asked, And that's a seven percent ROI over
18:43
Speaker 2: the last twenty years pretty much hits every single year
18:46
Speaker 2: five hundred and ats or better. But what I think
18:49
Speaker 2: the right way to look at it is is these
18:51
Speaker 2: favorites losing by double digits. That goes to fifty seven
18:55
Speaker 2: percent against the spread and almost twelve percent ROI. So
18:59
Speaker 2: that is something early in the year I'll be looking
19:02
Speaker 2: for just these odd situations where teams don't have it together,
19:06
Speaker 2: favorites lose by a large margin, they end up coming
19:08
Speaker 2: back the week the next week, So something I'll be
19:11
Speaker 2: talking about. But it's a bit of a look ahead,
19:13
Speaker 2: a spot circle, let's call it.
19:15
Speaker 1: Well, look that my favorite thing last year. We're week
19:18
Speaker 1: one and two trends like the notes we could gather
19:21
Speaker 1: from week one to week two. You know, could it
19:26
Speaker 1: be the Texans when they don't cover against the Colts
19:34
Speaker 1: bouncing back and being a team we love in the
19:36
Speaker 1: contest in week two. By the way, I don't know
19:39
Speaker 1: if you guys saw this. I just noticed this in
19:41
Speaker 1: the chat from Tito. I don't know if this is
19:44
Speaker 1: a true story. On his third date with his now wife,
19:49
Speaker 1: I imagine he said to her whether or not I
19:52
Speaker 1: can pay this dinner bill? Depends on the Dolphins covering
19:58
Speaker 1: a six point spread.
20:01
Speaker 3: What a model love story?
20:03
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell says, no way. He went on multiple third
20:05
Speaker 1: dates in his life, so this has to be with
20:08
Speaker 1: his wife. I'll report back if Tito finds the courage
20:13
Speaker 1: or the words to respond, but right now it feels
20:17
Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell has run him over. All Right, this
20:24
Speaker 1: one's interesting and Simon, if you want to jump in
20:27
Speaker 1: with any topic, feel free. I'll do the next one though.
20:31
Speaker 1: Ye Week one King, Yeah.
20:36
Speaker 2: So this one's pretty simple. It starts with a trivia
20:39
Speaker 2: question that it's pretty much been the answer over the
20:41
Speaker 2: last two or three seasons. Which is the most profitable
20:43
Speaker 2: Week one NFL coach in the Action Labs database which
20:46
Speaker 2: goes back twenty years. So which coach has been the
20:49
Speaker 2: best against the spread in Week one over the last
20:52
Speaker 2: two decades? And he's been in that slot mostly the
20:56
Speaker 2: last few seasons. Does any guesses? No?
21:02
Speaker 3: Give me, give me.
21:04
Speaker 2: Oh, he's been in this role for ten plus years,
21:07
Speaker 2: so he's a tenured coach in the AFC problem. I
21:11
Speaker 2: was gonna say close Amy.
21:14
Speaker 1: Oh oh oh no, no, no, no, Harbaugh.
21:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it is it is. It's King. Rest We
21:20
Speaker 2: call him John Harbaugh amazing. So we're going to talk
21:23
Speaker 2: about two numbers here when he's got ten or more
21:26
Speaker 2: days rest. Now, this is not week one, this is
21:29
Speaker 2: simply Thursday to Monday thirdy, you know that type of
21:32
Speaker 2: week or bye during the regular season, twenty seven and
21:35
Speaker 2: eight straight up, twenty thirteen and two against the spread,
21:38
Speaker 2: just Week one, twelve and four against the spread. He's
21:42
Speaker 2: felt the coverage just once in the last eight years. Now,
21:46
Speaker 2: now you're getting him as a dog. You've got the
21:48
Speaker 2: full three against Kansas City, three and two as a
21:53
Speaker 2: dog in Week one as well, that's straight up. So
21:55
Speaker 2: he's won those games. I mean, I'm I'm always anti
21:59
Speaker 2: Kansas City and it's gotten me burned all over the place.
22:03
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm into Baltimore here, especially if I can
22:06
Speaker 2: get maybe three, maybe three and a half. But it
22:08
Speaker 2: feels good.
22:10
Speaker 3: All right, let's hit it check.
22:11
Speaker 1: I got to follow up. I got to follow up,
22:13
Speaker 1: follow up, follow up for both of you. Do we
22:18
Speaker 1: think John Harbay is underrated as a coach.
22:24
Speaker 3: Properly rating and they have one of the best front
22:26
Speaker 3: offices at all football?
22:27
Speaker 2: Right, I was gonna say the same, So.
22:29
Speaker 3: I feel like proper properly, Like we all give him
22:31
Speaker 3: his flowers.
22:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, but how where do we rate him as a coach?
22:36
Speaker 1: Do we think he's top five? He's not Andy Reid.
22:40
Speaker 1: I doat is he Is he better than Dan Campbell?
22:44
Speaker 1: Is he better than Kyle Shanahan?
22:48
Speaker 3: Shanahan? But like I would put him top eight because
22:51
Speaker 3: he's just a great leader of men.
22:53
Speaker 1: Not top five. Like top five are going down.
22:55
Speaker 3: I want to put in top five because I need
22:56
Speaker 3: I need the brains in there, like the mcveigh's, the Shanahan,
22:59
Speaker 3: the Reeds, guys that are really putting this shit together.
23:02
Speaker 3: That's why, like Pittsburgh fans who shot on Tomlin constantly,
23:05
Speaker 3: It's like I get it. It's like, what is this guy?
23:07
Speaker 3: What does he actually do? I feel the same way
23:09
Speaker 3: about Sirianni now, so I get where they're coming from.
23:12
Speaker 1: But it does make it interesting, right because we've lost Belichick, Yeah,
23:18
Speaker 1: we've lost Vrabel, two guys that Betters have loved over
23:22
Speaker 1: the years as coaches, and I think a lot of
23:24
Speaker 1: people have always admired them generally as coaches. So maybe
23:29
Speaker 1: Harbaugh is top five. Like if you're thinking about the
23:31
Speaker 1: NFL right now, think about Evan don't shake your head
23:34
Speaker 1: at me thinking about top five right now, Andy Reid,
23:39
Speaker 1: Kyas Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, who, who else? Why isn't John
23:45
Speaker 1: Harbaugh on that list?
23:47
Speaker 2: I think he is. I also can't. I love a
23:50
Speaker 2: coach who does well with a backup. It proves he
23:52
Speaker 2: knows his system and he knows how to win and
23:54
Speaker 2: knows how to cover in that situation. And I believe
23:56
Speaker 2: Harball has been pretty good in that spot when X
23:59
Speaker 2: quarterback comes in, or Lamar when he gets hurt, you know,
24:01
Speaker 2: or his a late season sickness he tends to have
24:04
Speaker 2: the last few years. I love Harball.
24:06
Speaker 3: That's my pushback chat is just the disappointment he's given
24:08
Speaker 3: me over the years of like he just like that,
24:12
Speaker 3: I'll never move on from that team last year like that,
24:15
Speaker 3: that was truly an out of body experience for that
24:17
Speaker 3: whole organization of just they were who they were and
24:20
Speaker 3: they came in there and shifted who they were for
24:22
Speaker 3: that one game. It was just bizarre world. So I
24:26
Speaker 3: do agree with you, Like I'm trying to think of
24:27
Speaker 3: the other guys I'd put ahead of him, and he's
24:28
Speaker 3: just been my whole life. He's been a great coach, and.
24:32
Speaker 1: He's been a great coach. I actually feel like he's underrated. No,
24:35
Speaker 1: it's fair, he's not properly rated. He's I do think
24:38
Speaker 1: it is.
24:38
Speaker 3: Though, because he just keeps disappointing you. Bro, That's what
24:40
Speaker 3: I'm saying. He has one ring.
24:42
Speaker 1: You're not gonna put McDermott in front of it, in
24:44
Speaker 1: front of him. You're not gonna put Mike McDaniels. You're
24:47
Speaker 1: not going to put Matt Lafleur. You're not going to
24:54
Speaker 1: put Zach Taylor Stefanski. You're not going to put Kevin
24:59
Speaker 1: Stefanski in one of him. You know we're not ready
25:02
Speaker 1: for Damico stich In. Doug Peterson, you can't anymore. Sean Payton,
25:07
Speaker 1: you can't anymore. I don't think you can.
25:10
Speaker 2: Dude.
25:11
Speaker 3: We never as an Egos fan chat, I never had
25:13
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl brother. He broke, he broke the wheel.
25:16
Speaker 3: I'm saying now we're talking about underread to give Doug
25:18
Speaker 3: Peterson some flowers. Doug Peterson, chess Doug.
25:22
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson. He was a great coach in philadel and
25:25
Speaker 1: the visor cool. Doug Peterson was an amazing coach in Philadelphia.
25:29
Speaker 3: Even so, come on, I need to know a Brazil chat.
25:31
Speaker 3: I need Brazil, give me the gut runs. I'm dying here.
25:33
Speaker 3: I need to know.
25:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, So NFL sal Polo Brazil. You know crazy, don't
25:38
Speaker 2: wear green. We've heard all this stuff.
25:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't wear green, don't.
25:41
Speaker 2: We've heard a lot of this stuff. So let's just
25:43
Speaker 2: go into the Packers. Uh, specifically because Loof I honestly
25:47
Speaker 2: hadn't realized this myself when looking through the numbers. Now,
25:49
Speaker 2: Packers are a small dog in this game. Uh. And
25:52
Speaker 2: if you look at Lafour lafleur career fifty three thirty
25:56
Speaker 2: seven against the spread in five seasons, he's the second
25:59
Speaker 2: most profitable coach behind the guy you literally hear all
26:02
Speaker 2: the time, which is Dan Campbell who's breaking ATS records,
26:05
Speaker 2: But behind him is Lafleur. Sixteen games above five hundred,
26:09
Speaker 2: did a great job of Jordan Love. But now you
26:11
Speaker 2: talk about the underdog role he's been in that thirty
26:14
Speaker 2: two times. He's covered twenty two of those thirty two
26:17
Speaker 2: games by almost four points per game, so over a
26:20
Speaker 2: field goal. And then you say to yourself, Okay, different roster.
26:24
Speaker 2: Early in the year, first three weeks of the regular season,
26:27
Speaker 2: Lafour is actually thirteen and two against the spread regardless
26:30
Speaker 2: of the number, So to me, it just feels like
26:34
Speaker 2: an Eagles team that feels a mess, was a mess,
26:37
Speaker 2: goes into the year still a bit of a mess,
26:40
Speaker 2: and green Bay on the ascension. Now the number is
26:42
Speaker 2: pretty short, but it's an interesting look.
26:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I told Chad Evan, I talked to bookmakers. Again.
26:49
Speaker 3: I'm in the Philadelphia area, but Atlantic City is a
26:51
Speaker 3: lot of Giants fans as well. It's all Eagles money
26:55
Speaker 3: and that number has not moved, and that to me
26:58
Speaker 3: is terrifying. But it is June, so I'm going to
27:01
Speaker 3: relax a little bit because if this is September. Me
27:03
Speaker 3: and child had to go pretty heavy on Green Bay
27:06
Speaker 3: to be the guide on the street. Like that's that's in.
27:08
Speaker 3: Like Evan's just saying a trend's point to it. The
27:11
Speaker 3: books are pointing to it, like you just week one.
27:13
Speaker 3: He don't want to be going against the books usually,
27:16
Speaker 3: so yeah, don't didn't like the trend, Devin. I thought
27:19
Speaker 3: it was gonna go a different way. You may be
27:21
Speaker 3: even more nervous as an Eagles fan, so damn it.
27:24
Speaker 2: Sorry, I had to go anti Philly.
27:26
Speaker 1: Look Matt Lafleur, I'd put him six. I'd go read Shanahan, McVeigh, Harbaugh, Tomlin, Lafloor.
27:37
Speaker 1: That's what I would do.
27:38
Speaker 3: That's a solid list.
27:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that.
27:39
Speaker 1: That's a that's a really good list.
27:41
Speaker 3: And then other Harball brother might break that list this year,
27:43
Speaker 3: Like see.
27:45
Speaker 1: Brother, we will fight his way into that top Yeah.
27:48
Speaker 2: You can't even already did with San Francisco either, Like
27:50
Speaker 2: if he has success in his first season, it all
27:52
Speaker 2: comes together as a little package.
27:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a make or break year if you want
27:56
Speaker 1: to think of Lafloor as a top five, top ten coach.
27:58
Speaker 1: Because if you can do it again with Jordan Love
28:01
Speaker 1: your two post Rogers as he did it the second
28:04
Speaker 1: half of last year, that's that's impressive. Uh. One of
28:07
Speaker 1: the coaches who we would generally want to include on
28:10
Speaker 1: this list because we think he's the best hang in
28:12
Speaker 1: the NFL. Sean Payton went he went out on a limb. Boys,
28:18
Speaker 1: he went out on a lonely, lonely, flimsy limb, reaching
28:26
Speaker 1: the long arm of Sean Payton reaching for bonicks. Yes,
28:33
Speaker 1: so what we've got, Nick hold on, let me set
28:35
Speaker 1: it up, fucking interrupted me so much on this.
28:38
Speaker 3: Show long pauses today, Ched, I will say that you
28:41
Speaker 3: do have long pauses today.
28:42
Speaker 1: It's waves, dramatic bonicks. Sleepless in Seattle.
28:51
Speaker 2: All right, that was actually better than I thought it
28:53
Speaker 2: would be. Uh So last year this got trumped, but
28:56
Speaker 2: it's actually just worth bringing back. So the Seahawks got
28:59
Speaker 2: crushed at home last year Week one rams thirty to
29:02
Speaker 2: thirteen really wasn't pretty. But looking at the whole as
29:06
Speaker 2: a franchise and kind of what ends up happening when
29:08
Speaker 2: these teams come in there early in the year, Seahawks
29:11
Speaker 2: had gone eight no straight up, six and two against
29:13
Speaker 2: the spread when opening the season at home dating back
29:15
Speaker 2: to two thousand one. Step further, they're actually thirty and
29:20
Speaker 2: six straight up at home in their first three games
29:23
Speaker 2: of the regular season over the last twenty years. Just
29:26
Speaker 2: difficult to get into that building with the twelfth man
29:29
Speaker 2: early in the year. Good preparation. Now, how much of
29:31
Speaker 2: that is Russ, how much of that is Carol? How
29:33
Speaker 2: much of that is previous regime and preparation, Probably a
29:36
Speaker 2: decent amount. But I feel like the number mixed with
29:40
Speaker 2: the fact that Denver started terrible at the beginning last year,
29:43
Speaker 2: I believe they lost at home twice in the first
29:46
Speaker 2: two weeks, which almost never happens for them at Mile High,
29:49
Speaker 2: So this is kind of a reverse and as the
29:51
Speaker 2: bon Nicks, this could be a bon Nicks back in
29:54
Speaker 2: the Pacific Northwest starting for the Broncos. We're gonna see
29:58
Speaker 2: if he can pull off the dog win.
30:00
Speaker 1: Bullshit. Yeah, I'm not buying. This is one of those.
30:03
Speaker 1: To me, this is one of those stupid stats I'm ignoring.
30:07
Speaker 1: It's like, because here's the thing. We do this all
30:10
Speaker 1: the time, franchise history, numbers in certain spots do not matter.
30:19
Speaker 1: It's like that that's like the opposite of what you
30:23
Speaker 1: want to do. New coach, new offensive coordinator, same quarterback,
30:30
Speaker 1: new coach, ish new quarterback. Everything goes out the window.
30:36
Speaker 1: In these scenarios. You might as well say, what is
30:38
Speaker 1: a new coach in his first game? What is a
30:40
Speaker 1: new rookie quarterback in his first game? Those are more
30:43
Speaker 1: indicative to me. I don't like it, Evan, I don't
30:46
Speaker 1: like it one fucking bit.
30:48
Speaker 2: The best part about your reaction, this was the one
30:51
Speaker 2: I wanted to kick out. I had my ten I
30:54
Speaker 2: was like, Matt, I'm Matt Mitchell. We're talking about our producer.
30:56
Speaker 2: I was like, this one's weak and we wanted to
30:59
Speaker 2: stick to week I'm completely with you. We're gonna fade it.
31:02
Speaker 2: Seattle loses Week one. I'm I really do believe you
31:06
Speaker 2: and I'm with you. It means absolutely nothing, and if anything,
31:09
Speaker 2: I think the public will end up catching on wanting
31:11
Speaker 2: to take Seattle and the line'll get inflated.
31:14
Speaker 1: So, by the way, bitch, as soon as I said
31:17
Speaker 1: this was bullshit, Matt Mitchell wrote in the chat, feels
31:20
Speaker 1: like some Matt Mitchell slander come in this way.
31:23
Speaker 2: Perfect. It was perfect well set.
31:25
Speaker 1: Up, Simon. Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app
31:29
Speaker 1: in the United States?
31:31
Speaker 2: Game Time?
31:32
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for
31:34
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I
31:38
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
31:41
Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro in college sports. I'm actually opening
31:45
Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house here
31:47
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Guess what the hottest team in baseball? The
31:50
Speaker 1: New York Yankees. I can get into see them for
31:55
Speaker 1: thirty bucks. No matter where you live, download the game
31:59
Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You
32:02
Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars
32:04
Speaker 1: off first purchase terms apply again. Just download the game
32:08
Speaker 1: Time app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off
32:11
Speaker 1: your first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices guaranteed.
32:21
Speaker 3: All right, Can we get to a chat out just
32:23
Speaker 3: what we've both been dying for because we love road dogs?
32:26
Speaker 2: Love it?
32:27
Speaker 3: Give me the road dog trends.
32:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's simple, And to be honest, it's every
32:32
Speaker 2: single year we end up talking about it these teams
32:35
Speaker 2: early in the year, and when I give you the hook,
32:37
Speaker 2: it's you're gonna understand kind of why. So most campbles
32:40
Speaker 2: know that that Week one road underdog has been a
32:42
Speaker 2: good bet, and that's true. They've got a small positive
32:45
Speaker 2: it's like two or three percent overall blanket last twenty years.
32:49
Speaker 2: But where you really want to split it down, road
32:52
Speaker 2: underdogs who didn't make the playoffs the previous year. So
32:56
Speaker 2: motivation differenceive roster and change up ninety fifty nine and
33:01
Speaker 2: five over sixty percent in that spot Week one last
33:05
Speaker 2: twenty years. So this year we've got ten teams right
33:11
Speaker 2: now who are Week one rode underdogs who didn't make
33:14
Speaker 2: the playoffs last season. So six and four is basically
33:19
Speaker 2: what you're looking at, hopefully to get kind of stay consistent,
33:22
Speaker 2: but a wild number that to me actually makes sense
33:25
Speaker 2: because as you get closer to Week one, those Week
33:27
Speaker 2: one road underdogs no playoffs, usually facing a team probably
33:31
Speaker 2: did make the playoffs, You're just gonna get inflated lines,
33:34
Speaker 2: and right before that closing line of kickoff, it's probably
33:37
Speaker 2: going up a point, a half a point in those
33:39
Speaker 2: a few days, especially Week one, which gets an enormous
33:42
Speaker 2: amount of action. So this one I really like.
33:46
Speaker 1: I like it a lot too. Who are the six
33:48
Speaker 1: that are gonna cover? Just so you can can you
33:50
Speaker 1: tell us?
33:51
Speaker 2: Right? We can work out how about this that's gonna
33:53
Speaker 2: be our Week one episode? I promise, there you go.
33:55
Speaker 1: I'd be great if we could notice we could put
33:57
Speaker 1: those in the contest. I feel like I might have
33:59
Speaker 1: overrelied on that one and in last year because I
34:05
Speaker 1: loved it so much and we went to and through
34:08
Speaker 1: that week. I'm just saying it was.
34:10
Speaker 3: Definitely a reason we because we knew that ravens now
34:13
Speaker 3: we were like, we were big Raven Week one guys.
34:15
Speaker 3: We definitely rode that. We're like, Houston was ten point
34:18
Speaker 3: dog on the road. We're like, come on, how do
34:21
Speaker 3: we not take that? And again me and Chad, we're
34:24
Speaker 3: in the right place. I get I say it all
34:26
Speaker 3: the time. Our heart's in the right place. You said
34:27
Speaker 3: up being a great team. But man, that week one
34:29
Speaker 3: that heard against the ravensard.
34:32
Speaker 2: So much.
34:35
Speaker 1: Rich Man's Game. I like that these have titles and
34:40
Speaker 1: I almost feel like Simon, we're playing Jeopardy host and
34:45
Speaker 1: we're just reading something random and Evan now has to
34:50
Speaker 1: answer the trivia question. Evan's the category is rich Man's Game.
34:57
Speaker 2: Okay, so for four hundred dollars. Uh no, So the
35:01
Speaker 2: Lions and this is this is a very similar one
35:03
Speaker 2: to the hardball stat and it's something you bring back
35:06
Speaker 2: because honestly, it just keeps hitting and with this guy,
35:09
Speaker 2: he ends up covering every week anyway. So most profitable
35:13
Speaker 2: Week one quarterback Jared goth Yep. And it's just been
35:17
Speaker 2: absolutely ridiculous because he's now seven and oats and openers.
35:20
Speaker 2: He went four and oh straight up in ats with
35:22
Speaker 2: the Rams, but now one and two straight up, three
35:26
Speaker 2: and o ats with the Lions. And obviously you've got
35:29
Speaker 2: Detroit right now Sunday night football. They're laying three and
35:33
Speaker 2: a half.
35:34
Speaker 3: Again we seen that's are on McVeigh. I know it's
35:39
Speaker 3: the it's the Rams great trends.
35:41
Speaker 1: The RAMS ended up being our big balls better of
35:44
Speaker 1: the week.
35:44
Speaker 3: Because there again he didn't even say it. McVeigh is
35:46
Speaker 3: a great week one trend two like even last year
35:48
Speaker 3: they covered for US week one. So that's I mean.
35:51
Speaker 3: That Campbells stat scares me, man, because me and Chad
35:54
Speaker 3: we're on the three and a half already of the Rams.
35:56
Speaker 3: But luckily McVeigh plays pretty well, right, he coaches pretty well.
35:59
Speaker 2: Won he does. I think he's either like second or
36:02
Speaker 2: third best on that list. To me, I'm oh, I
36:05
Speaker 2: hate zeros. So when you see goff seven and zero,
36:08
Speaker 2: it's always gonna tell me people are gonna pick up
36:09
Speaker 2: on it. People are gonna roll with it, and probably higher.
36:12
Speaker 2: So at three and a half, I'm probably just to
36:15
Speaker 2: stay away. Do you remember, I don't remember what the
36:16
Speaker 2: playoff game was. I didn't look that up, but I
36:19
Speaker 2: would guess it was probably similar or a little higher potentially.
36:23
Speaker 3: Uh So the line for the playoff game was three
36:26
Speaker 3: and a half. Oh there you go again. Never never
36:28
Speaker 3: in doubt, right, Chad?
36:29
Speaker 2: Yeah?
36:30
Speaker 3: Never, But I'm around watch in the with all the fans.
36:34
Speaker 3: Right that we did.
36:39
Speaker 1: Simon, you want to see up the next one.
36:41
Speaker 3: Uh, I'm hoping because Chad's are crazy. Man went out
36:44
Speaker 3: of order. I'm hoping. We haven't done this one yet.
36:46
Speaker 2: The Miami Heat, Yeah we haven't. This one is a
36:49
Speaker 2: fun one. Uh now week one, but we'll talk about
36:53
Speaker 2: in this seven. So I'm buying a Week one.
36:55
Speaker 3: Brother, I'm drinking the kool aid. The heat man, no shade,
36:58
Speaker 3: no shade.
36:59
Speaker 2: Yeah here, it's perfect.
37:01
Speaker 3: Everyone talks about that's my favorite thing of football, and
37:03
Speaker 3: they're you know, in Miami, they don't got shit in
37:04
Speaker 3: the other sideline. Know, I've never heard that.
37:06
Speaker 2: Yeah shocking. It's like the goes a mile high earlier
37:09
Speaker 2: in the year, but here it's hard to win. It's
37:11
Speaker 2: hard to win in Miami early in the season. Teams
37:13
Speaker 2: struggling in Miami when the temperatures are high hasn't always
37:16
Speaker 2: been true when you look through history, but it actually
37:18
Speaker 2: has been true under the current regime, which we might
37:21
Speaker 2: take more of a weight in. So at home temperatures
37:24
Speaker 2: eighty plus. Tua is fifteen and three straight up, Mike
37:28
Speaker 2: McDaniel is nine and one straight up. Also many people
37:32
Speaker 2: have talked about this with that shade on the other sideline.
37:35
Speaker 2: It's the one pm game at home with Miami specifically,
37:38
Speaker 2: it's worked lately, so they are forty two and twenty
37:41
Speaker 2: three straight up last decade in that one pm home slot.
37:45
Speaker 2: Outside that one pm window, they're just eight and seven
37:48
Speaker 2: straight up. So it does have a little bit of
37:51
Speaker 2: a back and forth there that you can compare. Now,
37:54
Speaker 2: let's look at Miami schedule. So Week one it's Jacksonville.
37:58
Speaker 2: I don't know how much I want to buy Jacksonville
38:00
Speaker 2: being worried about the heat on the other sideline. But
38:03
Speaker 2: Week two, Buffalo, Week four, Tennessee, those feel like maybe
38:07
Speaker 2: different spots depending on the humidity, the weather, the situation.
38:11
Speaker 2: Obviously a lot going on here, But nonetheless I was
38:14
Speaker 2: surprised by the fifteen and three number and the nine
38:18
Speaker 2: and one number with two in McDaniel.
38:19
Speaker 1: So, Mike McDaniel, Doug Peterson, who do you want coaching
38:23
Speaker 1: your team?
38:24
Speaker 3: Ooh, Mike, I don't know, Mike McDaniel's come.
38:27
Speaker 2: On, I think it's Peterson, to be honest, I think
38:31
Speaker 2: he gets more. I think he gets more out of
38:33
Speaker 2: the roster, Like I think what Miami's got going on
38:35
Speaker 2: right now, like it kind of lives up to expectations. Well,
38:38
Speaker 2: I feel like every time Peterson enters this season, he exceeds.
38:42
Speaker 2: But I think this is a huge year there, so
38:44
Speaker 2: I might be wrong in a few months.
38:46
Speaker 1: I'd rather have John Harbaugh than both. Yeah, fair last
38:50
Speaker 1: one evan extra rest equals unders. I don't know what
38:56
Speaker 1: that can mean. It's a mysterious.
38:58
Speaker 2: Title, shocking, but I will have a hook at the end,
39:01
Speaker 2: which is fun. So last three years NFL unders have
39:04
Speaker 2: just been going crazy overall, blanket doesn't matter anything else.
39:08
Speaker 2: It's about fifty five percent, almost five percent. ROI one
39:12
Speaker 2: hundred dollars better has been up almost four k just
39:15
Speaker 2: betting unders. It's been twenty plus games over five hundred
39:19
Speaker 2: for unders all three seasons, so it really just hasn't
39:22
Speaker 2: even been close. But the one spot that I personally
39:25
Speaker 2: have focused on and I think is going to continue
39:28
Speaker 2: hitting is the fact that teams with rest and during
39:31
Speaker 2: games have been even more to the unders. So since
39:34
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, there have been one hundred and sixty four
39:36
Speaker 2: NFL games where both teams were on eight plus days rest.
39:41
Speaker 2: Monday Night Football, there's all sorts of different situations, including
39:44
Speaker 2: week one. Right, So those teams sixty six percent to
39:48
Speaker 2: sixty eight percent to the under, depending on the timeframe,
39:52
Speaker 2: just absolutely cashes every single year so far. Now that
39:55
Speaker 2: is without week one, but we care about week one,
39:59
Speaker 2: Week one, thirty two and seventeen to the under the
40:02
Speaker 2: same number sixty five percent. So usually rest has been
40:07
Speaker 2: higher totals. Better's betting them up, and we've seen unders
40:11
Speaker 2: and that's kind of the way it's been in the
40:13
Speaker 2: recent offensive NFL. Let's call it.
40:17
Speaker 1: Well, listen, both of you were preaching the unders last year,
40:21
Speaker 1: the prime time unders last year, all season long, right
40:26
Speaker 1: up until the moment where everybody felt the cat was
40:29
Speaker 1: out of the bag and the numbers were going to
40:31
Speaker 1: go in the other direction. And I think it worked
40:33
Speaker 1: out for everybody, if I do say so myself. Evan Abrams,
40:39
Speaker 1: director of Research. One of our brothers here on the
40:42
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. If we had to rank brothers, Simon J.
40:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not ranked brothers, that's oh my god. How
40:53
Speaker 2: about you rank your kids. Let's do that. First of
40:55
Speaker 2: them are ranked brothers, you know what.
41:01
Speaker 1: I love them both so little. It's hard to say,
41:07
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