Latest / Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast / Inside The Data: Using Models To Project Next Contracts For Jalen Carter, Other Eagle Defensive Stars

Transcript

Inside The Data: Using Models To Project Next Contracts For Jalen Carter, Other Eagle Defensive Stars · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds on
0:12
Speaker 1: Jeff Moser, and of course when we're talking Inside the Data,
0:15
Speaker 1: we are talking Sam Finkel, our data and analytics expert,
0:18
Speaker 1: and we've got a great two part podcast series lined up,
0:22
Speaker 1: and Sam, I say it's great because we're gonna it's
0:24
Speaker 1: a little bit of a blash in the past. When
0:26
Speaker 1: you first started doing shows with us, one of your
0:28
Speaker 1: specialties was doing predictive outcomes of free agent contracts for
0:33
Speaker 1: not just the Eagles but the NFL. And lately we
0:36
Speaker 1: just haven't really had time to take a deep breath,
0:39
Speaker 1: get away from the x's and ohs, and really talk
0:41
Speaker 1: about contracts, which is your specialty, and now is a
0:45
Speaker 1: good time of the year to look at contracts. We're
0:48
Speaker 1: not doing what we do on Inside the Birds, which
0:50
Speaker 1: is go through We do contract show. Sam, I'm sure
0:53
Speaker 1: you've heard them where we kind of say, what does
0:55
Speaker 1: this contract currently mean for so and so's future with
0:58
Speaker 1: the Eagles. That's something I do. What we do is
1:01
Speaker 1: look at some guys who could be up for extensions soon,
1:04
Speaker 1: what that might mean for them, what the market will dictate,
1:08
Speaker 1: And certainly that's been relevant for the Eagles, right I mean,
1:11
Speaker 1: look at Jalen Phillips and Milton Williams in the last
1:13
Speaker 1: two years. They got huge contracts on the free agent market.
1:18
Speaker 1: So we'll start with defense, right. I think if a
1:20
Speaker 1: guy like Moro Jomo, who will talk about who, I'm
1:22
Speaker 1: sure the Eagles would love to extend. But I'm sure
1:25
Speaker 1: as agent is saying, hey, you just had a really
1:27
Speaker 1: good year last year. You're gonna have one more really
1:30
Speaker 1: good year on this awesome defense, and then you too
1:32
Speaker 1: could go be like Milton Williams or Jaalen Phillips next
1:35
Speaker 1: year in free agency if you stay healthy and you
1:38
Speaker 1: have a really productive season. So I'm gonna let you
1:42
Speaker 1: take it from here. As far as I know that
1:46
Speaker 1: when we talk, you have changed a little bit on
1:49
Speaker 1: how you do your predictive algorithm to determine contract extensions
1:52
Speaker 1: and contracts.
1:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I made a couple of changes for a
1:57
Speaker 2: bunch of reasons which we'll get into. But yeah, the
2:01
Speaker 2: new model I feel a lot more confident in, predominantly
2:05
Speaker 2: because originally what what I was doing was I was
2:08
Speaker 2: adjusting for cap inflation manually, so I was looking at
2:13
Speaker 2: how the salary cap has grown each year over year,
2:17
Speaker 2: including that COVID year where it went down and taking
2:20
Speaker 2: the average and adjusting that way, what I have determined
2:24
Speaker 2: is that may not be the best estimate just because
2:27
Speaker 2: cap is growing it you can't really average that out.
2:30
Speaker 2: It's hard to capture that value. And so what I
2:34
Speaker 2: thought was the better way to do that is look
2:36
Speaker 2: at percentage of CAP at signing. And the reason why
2:41
Speaker 2: that's better is because the percentage remains constant and regardless
2:46
Speaker 2: of how the CAP inflates, they generally slot in around
2:50
Speaker 2: that percentage. So you take the percent of CAP at signing,
2:53
Speaker 2: which again you look at the comps and see where
2:56
Speaker 2: it slides in and where that player relates based on
3:00
Speaker 2: their statistics, and you know, could they grow or was
3:05
Speaker 2: it like an anomaly. There's certain factors that you look into,
3:07
Speaker 2: and we'll get into each of those factors, and then
3:11
Speaker 2: you take that number and then you take the cap
3:13
Speaker 2: multiply them, and then that's how you get the actual
3:16
Speaker 2: dollar figure. And I think that this methodology is better
3:20
Speaker 2: as it'll account for the cap inflation that I tried
3:23
Speaker 2: really hard to correct for, which is really hard to predict,
3:26
Speaker 2: and made it almost a non variable because it already
3:29
Speaker 2: accounts for itself.
3:31
Speaker 1: Right, right, it's okay. So that's a good adjustment, and
3:34
Speaker 1: you expect that to lean toward more accuracy. I always
3:37
Speaker 1: feel like a little bit of empathy for people like
3:40
Speaker 1: yourself who do this and over the cap folks and
3:43
Speaker 1: stuff like that, because you know, every free agent period,
3:47
Speaker 1: when we go through free agency and preview it, Adam
3:50
Speaker 1: and I, I always say that the teams you really
3:53
Speaker 1: have to watch out for are the teams that have
3:56
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks but are doing fairly well decently, like they
4:01
Speaker 1: want to start contending because they have so much more
4:03
Speaker 1: money to throw around than teams that have a quarterback
4:08
Speaker 1: making top market money, which is now about ten and
4:10
Speaker 1: eleven twelve. Teams that have fifty million a year quarterbacks, right,
4:14
Speaker 1: you have like your haves and have nots. Actually, and
4:16
Speaker 1: so like Bryce young Panthers on a rookie deal, so
4:20
Speaker 1: they can thirty million dollars for Jail and Phillips two
4:23
Speaker 1: years ago, Drake May. They liked what they saw, They
4:25
Speaker 1: knew that they had what their guy, so they throw
4:28
Speaker 1: what was it, twenty six million dollars at Milton Williams.
4:31
Speaker 1: You know the Broncos had done it, and you know
4:34
Speaker 1: cam Ward I mean they went and the Titans through
4:37
Speaker 1: seventeen million a year at Wandale Robinson, which is like,
4:41
Speaker 1: you know, and I'm not trying to be disrespectful to
4:43
Speaker 1: Wandale Robinson. It's just illustrating my point that I feel
4:46
Speaker 1: like this is one of the most difficult jobs to
4:48
Speaker 1: do projecting caps when you just don't know the volatility
4:52
Speaker 1: and the pressure that some teams face when they have
4:54
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks under rookie deals. So just go out and
4:56
Speaker 1: get top tier talent at all.
4:58
Speaker 2: Costs, absolutely, and I think that a lot of that
5:02
Speaker 2: can be addressed by using this new method. But again,
5:05
Speaker 2: I mean it's not a perfect method. There's still going
5:07
Speaker 2: to be teams that will put a higher percentage of
5:10
Speaker 2: their salary cap, you know, allocate it towards these non
5:14
Speaker 2: premium or even premium positions with especially when they have
5:18
Speaker 2: they don't have the constraint of a quarterback contract. I
5:21
Speaker 2: think that's a really good way to describe it, and
5:23
Speaker 2: I think that's very accurate.
5:24
Speaker 1: Right, So what I asked you to do with knowing
5:28
Speaker 1: on the Eagles, you know, who will either be up
5:31
Speaker 1: for an extension at this time next year because they're
5:34
Speaker 1: on their rookie deal and they'll be three years through right,
5:37
Speaker 1: or players that might have a new role, an expanded role.
5:42
Speaker 1: You know, I'm sort of trying to be cute here,
5:46
Speaker 1: but I'll get like, when we do offense, we're going
5:47
Speaker 1: to talk about Hurts and DeVante Smith. They're not per
5:50
Speaker 1: se up for extensions, but new role for Davonte as
5:54
Speaker 1: wide receiver one and of course Jalen Hurts last year
5:56
Speaker 1: of character money. Those two guys will be considered for
6:00
Speaker 1: extensions at this time next year, if not sooner. So
6:03
Speaker 1: we'll get into that on that episode. For Defense, what
6:06
Speaker 1: we're gonna do this one, These are more of the
6:07
Speaker 1: conventional you're you're you know, it's time for you, You're
6:12
Speaker 1: on your rookie deal. We're gonna talk about Jaen Carter,
6:15
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about Moro Ajomo, and we're gonna talk
6:17
Speaker 1: about Jelex Hunt because they're all either already right now
6:21
Speaker 1: do for an extension or will be at this time
6:23
Speaker 1: next year, and we want to look how the egos
6:25
Speaker 1: are going to make this work with them. We honestly,
6:28
Speaker 1: I Defense was tough because I could have thrown Cooper
6:30
Speaker 1: to Gene and quinnin on Mitchell in there and then
6:32
Speaker 1: we would have done like thirty guys. Maybe we'll continue
6:35
Speaker 1: to do this part three and part four, but I
6:37
Speaker 1: want to focus on the front seven because that's where
6:39
Speaker 1: the Egles have a lot of money invested.
6:41
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, and definitely can do this experiment for a
6:45
Speaker 2: bunch of different positions, a bunch of different players, right,
6:48
Speaker 2: But I just I think you're right, these are the
6:50
Speaker 2: ones you should prioritize at least right now.
6:52
Speaker 1: All right, So when we get into those three before
6:55
Speaker 1: I kind of share the screen and show the crafts,
6:57
Speaker 1: I want you to go through more of your methodology.
7:01
Speaker 1: You just talked about some of it, but the three
7:03
Speaker 1: bullet points that you wanted to bring to the light here.
7:06
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I think the first thing that we have
7:09
Speaker 2: to qualify is that the twenty twenty seven salary cap
7:13
Speaker 2: has not been set by the NFL yet. I mean,
7:15
Speaker 2: there's no way it could be at this point. So
7:18
Speaker 2: it's dealing with a projection, right, and there are going
7:22
Speaker 2: to be errors in that projection because nobody can accurately
7:26
Speaker 2: project that. I will say that over the Cap and
7:29
Speaker 2: spot Rack are both very close in their projection. Over
7:33
Speaker 2: the Cap is a three twenty seven million spot Rack
7:36
Speaker 2: is at three twenty three million, and so I went
7:39
Speaker 2: with over the cap just because I typically like their
7:43
Speaker 2: content is a little bit better. No shade at spot rack,
7:47
Speaker 2: but I just.
7:48
Speaker 1: No, I agree with you. Go over the cap is
7:50
Speaker 1: a little bit for my liking, more a little more
7:52
Speaker 1: accurate on the contracts, yeah, than the salary cap.
7:55
Speaker 2: But that being said, I mean they're not that far off.
7:57
Speaker 2: So I think an important caveat is once that contract,
8:02
Speaker 2: once that salary cap is set, the contracts may vary
8:06
Speaker 2: because again it's based on a percentage of salary cap
8:08
Speaker 2: at signing. So I think it's really important to understand
8:11
Speaker 2: that the projections could go up or down depending on
8:14
Speaker 2: where the NFL salary cap is actually set. Right, So
8:19
Speaker 2: that's a variable that is out of our control and
8:22
Speaker 2: it's just something to acknowledge and it may change the
8:25
Speaker 2: actual analysis or determination in the future. So I think
8:29
Speaker 2: that's a really important thing.
8:30
Speaker 1: To say, got it.
8:32
Speaker 2: And again that's the estimate we used. And then another
8:36
Speaker 2: thing is that factor in relevant statistics age when signed,
8:41
Speaker 2: market scarcity and comparable salaries in the market. That's typically
8:45
Speaker 2: the methodology that is used. And yeah, that's kind of
8:48
Speaker 2: where we'll start.
8:49
Speaker 1: All right, real quick. Two questions off what you said, though,
8:53
Speaker 1: when we're talking about projecting a salary cap, when does
8:56
Speaker 1: the new TV deal kick in? Because that always nine okay,
9:03
Speaker 1: so this is all right, So that's always something to
9:06
Speaker 1: factor in because I know agents want to either push
9:09
Speaker 1: for the whatever deal they signed to expire before that
9:13
Speaker 1: year so that they can reset right, or make sure
9:16
Speaker 1: that there's a huge jump in money that year to
9:19
Speaker 1: account for that. So but we're still a couple of
9:22
Speaker 1: years away. And then the second thing, I'm just at
9:24
Speaker 1: a point I'm going to bring up. I assume that
9:27
Speaker 1: over the cap and spot rack and sites that do this,
9:30
Speaker 1: they calculate the next year's salary cap based on what
9:35
Speaker 1: the jumps have looked like from year to year to
9:37
Speaker 1: year to year, correct, and then they try to project.
9:40
Speaker 1: I do wonder if the number higher number this year
9:46
Speaker 1: of international games that the NFL is about to play
9:49
Speaker 1: will make that number actually even higher than projected, because
9:53
Speaker 1: I think that they are taking a I think they're
9:55
Speaker 1: playing way more international games this year than last year.
9:59
Speaker 1: So I know that there's to the NFL of that,
10:01
Speaker 1: but there's also some huge merchandising and sales and all
10:04
Speaker 1: that benefits that's why they're doing it.
10:06
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Yeah, I think you're probably correct on that for sure.
10:11
Speaker 1: All right, So so we'll work off three twenty seven million,
10:14
Speaker 1: could could probably not gonna be less, could be more.
10:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the assumption I would go under for sure. Right.
10:21
Speaker 1: Cool, So let's start with a name everybody's really been
10:25
Speaker 1: wondering about. We're gonna We're gonna start with Jillen Carter
10:28
Speaker 1: because he has had his fifth year option picked up
10:32
Speaker 1: and he is he's he could sign a contract right now.
10:36
Speaker 1: That's he's through his third year. Uh, he is in
10:39
Speaker 1: the same boat as Moro Ajomo. The only one that
10:42
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about who couldn't sign one right now
10:44
Speaker 1: would be Jilex Hunt because he would not be available
10:47
Speaker 1: until next year. So when we talk about Jillen Carter,
10:51
Speaker 1: we literally could get an extension tomorrow.
10:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
10:55
Speaker 1: That's why we're trying to do this now and really,
10:57
Speaker 1: uh get into it. So the first thing you did
10:59
Speaker 1: was look at statistics. Why is that?
11:02
Speaker 2: Because I think that is one of the biggest determinations
11:06
Speaker 2: as to what your salary is because what you produce,
11:10
Speaker 2: and again I think interior defensive line is a weird
11:13
Speaker 2: one predominantly because it won't show up in statistics every time.
11:17
Speaker 2: I mean, particularly with Jalen Carter. I mean, your impact
11:20
Speaker 2: is you're getting double team, You're opening up, you know,
11:23
Speaker 2: lanes for your teammates. And I think it's really hard
11:27
Speaker 2: to figure out your value just based on statistics, particularly
11:31
Speaker 2: for this position. And again once we do the offensive side,
11:34
Speaker 2: for guard or really any offensive line, it's hard to
11:38
Speaker 2: one hundred percent determine your value based on purely statistics.
11:42
Speaker 1: Right, for example, took of these right, I'm sorry, go ahead.
11:45
Speaker 2: No, no, I'm just god, I do think it's important. That's
11:47
Speaker 2: the one thing I was gonna say.
11:48
Speaker 1: Sure, And every almost every power agent I know actually
11:52
Speaker 1: has in their agency a person who is in charge
11:56
Speaker 1: of compiling not just statistics like some of the ones,
12:00
Speaker 1: I mean like really advanced data. I mean anything that
12:03
Speaker 1: could support their client's case, you know, like underlying metrics everything,
12:08
Speaker 1: I mean books. They come in with books of stats
12:11
Speaker 1: and data to try to get the most amount of
12:14
Speaker 1: money for their client. But the one thing that's interesting
12:16
Speaker 1: about Jillen Carter, and I am let me be absolutely
12:20
Speaker 1: unequivocal about this, Jalen Carter is not Derek Barnett. However,
12:26
Speaker 1: it's if you remember, Derek Barnett had a really good
12:28
Speaker 1: rookie year when the Eagles drafted him twenty seventeen, and
12:31
Speaker 1: then sort of regressed as it went on. Jalen Carter's
12:34
Speaker 1: numbers stats overlying metrics say a little bit of regression.
12:39
Speaker 1: But we also know he was dealing with shoulder injuries.
12:41
Speaker 1: But that's part of it.
12:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. I mean, they do say the best ability
12:46
Speaker 2: is availability, and that there is some you know, validity
12:49
Speaker 2: to that, but to the same degree, someone of Jalen
12:53
Speaker 2: Carter's caliber doesn't really happen very often. And again you
12:58
Speaker 2: cannot specifically for him. You cannot quantify basically his value
13:04
Speaker 2: just based on statistics, and I think that's a really
13:06
Speaker 2: important point that I would say, there you.
13:09
Speaker 1: Go, and that's a lot for defensive tackles especially. You
13:12
Speaker 1: see that too. So the Eagles picked up his fifth
13:15
Speaker 1: year option, which is I think around twenty seven million
13:18
Speaker 1: dollars Samford twenty twenty seven, which means it's guaranteed. So
13:21
Speaker 1: that means any conversation about a contract extension begins at
13:27
Speaker 1: at least twenty seven million dollars full, I mean, and
13:30
Speaker 1: that's that's honestly the low baseline. But you can't. You wouldn't.
13:34
Speaker 1: You'd have to fire your agent if you somehow signed
13:36
Speaker 1: a contract that was going to guarantee you less money
13:39
Speaker 1: than what you're already guaranteed on the on the fifth
13:41
Speaker 1: year option.
13:42
Speaker 2: One hundred one hundred percent. Agreed with you completely.
13:45
Speaker 1: All right, So let's you just you listed here the
13:49
Speaker 1: interior defensive line market as a reason of what comparison.
13:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I think ultimately what you what an agent
13:57
Speaker 2: does with the team does is they'll look at the
13:59
Speaker 2: market and the comps, and I think this is just
14:01
Speaker 2: getting an inside this process is very helpful for our
14:04
Speaker 2: listeners and our viewers. So I kind of wanted to show.
14:06
Speaker 1: It mm hm.
14:07
Speaker 2: And you say, where would Jalen Carter fit? And I
14:11
Speaker 2: think the best way to do that again is the
14:13
Speaker 2: percent of cap because it makes all else equal. You
14:16
Speaker 2: can't really look at the numbers of the salary because
14:19
Speaker 2: it really just matters from a standpoint of a snapshot, right,
14:23
Speaker 2: And I think the best way to capture that snapshot
14:25
Speaker 2: again is that percent of cap because it takes out
14:28
Speaker 2: the actual numbers and it says, this is what a
14:31
Speaker 2: team allocated for this player based on the percentage of
14:36
Speaker 2: salary cap, and I think that's the best way to
14:37
Speaker 2: look at it. Sure, and it takes the years out
14:41
Speaker 2: of it, because again, the salary cap jumps significantly each year,
14:44
Speaker 2: so it kind of makes all else equal at the
14:47
Speaker 2: end of the day. And so what they'll do is
14:49
Speaker 2: the look at the player and they'll say, based on
14:52
Speaker 2: their statistics and based on their value, where do they
14:55
Speaker 2: fit on this?
14:57
Speaker 1: Got it?
14:58
Speaker 2: So thishead, no, no, go ahead.
15:00
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, this is a pretty
15:02
Speaker 1: diverse list. You have a couple of guys I think
15:04
Speaker 1: that become the the non comparison, like a Chris Jones
15:08
Speaker 1: who's thirty years old on this fourth contract. Right, So
15:12
Speaker 1: naturally when you see that happen, like with Brandon Graham,
15:14
Speaker 1: these guys get paid really well for on one year
15:17
Speaker 1: deals and it winds up being like a larger percentage
15:19
Speaker 1: of the cap. So not necessarily as relative to what
15:23
Speaker 1: we're dealing with Jalen Carter And probably the same thing
15:27
Speaker 1: you would say with DeForest Buckner who's thirty years old
15:30
Speaker 1: and Dexter Lawrence was already like a couple of years
15:33
Speaker 1: into his second contract. Sure, Okay, but everybody else relevant
15:38
Speaker 1: good points though I would say say that again, I
15:41
Speaker 1: do think they're relevant data points right. And by the way,
15:44
Speaker 1: these were the age when they signed. I don't want
15:46
Speaker 1: to make it sound like this is how old they
15:47
Speaker 1: are right now. This is the age of the contract
15:50
Speaker 1: that they when they signed it. Correct, Okay, uh so
15:53
Speaker 1: your your deductive reasoning then would lead you to believe
15:58
Speaker 1: about what about Jill Carter?
16:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think based on the market and based on
16:04
Speaker 2: his statistics, and based on the potential growth upside of
16:08
Speaker 2: him as a player and development, I do think he
16:13
Speaker 2: if he has a you know, a not great season
16:15
Speaker 2: by his accounts, I could see him slot under that
16:19
Speaker 2: Chris Jones salary cap at eleven and a half. I
16:23
Speaker 2: think that's what the numbers may suggest. But I also
16:26
Speaker 2: could see him blowing it out of the water. I
16:27
Speaker 2: don't think by that much, but I do think it
16:30
Speaker 2: would be between I think a fair range would be
16:32
Speaker 2: about eleven point five percent to thirteen percent. And again
16:36
Speaker 2: that would translate to based on our estimate and based
16:39
Speaker 2: on the variable of that we're assuming the assumption were
16:43
Speaker 2: of three hundred and twenty seven million, that would be
16:45
Speaker 2: thirty seven point six to forty two point five million
16:48
Speaker 2: a year.
16:49
Speaker 1: So what would lead you to believe that he, Joe Carter,
16:52
Speaker 1: would command a little, I don't want to say significant,
16:57
Speaker 1: but a higher percentage of the cap than some one
17:00
Speaker 1: like Jeffrey Simmons at the time that he signed, or
17:03
Speaker 1: Quentin Williams at the time he signed.
17:06
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, again, those are pretty good, you know,
17:09
Speaker 2: reference points. But I think that there are significant arguments
17:15
Speaker 2: for Carter being you know, more covet, more more valuable
17:19
Speaker 2: or coveted higher than those players at the time. And
17:23
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it has to do with
17:25
Speaker 2: the fact that, again, Carter has just allowed his teammates
17:31
Speaker 2: to succeed at a level. And honestly, he's a I
17:34
Speaker 2: don't want, I don't want to say victim. He is
17:37
Speaker 2: a benefactor of his circumstance. I think that his defense
17:40
Speaker 2: is better than both Quinn Williams and Jeffrey Simmons defenses.
17:45
Speaker 2: And I think that what they'll use is other statistics
17:49
Speaker 2: on like how he how his teammates do around him.
17:51
Speaker 2: And I think that because of this Fangio defense and
17:54
Speaker 2: all the people around him, there is value in Carter
18:01
Speaker 2: basically because of everyone around him, Because of the scheme right,
18:05
Speaker 2: And I think that I tried a lot of these analyzes.
18:09
Speaker 2: I tried to do an upside analysis. I tried to
18:12
Speaker 2: create the floor too, which is why I slotted it
18:15
Speaker 2: under Chris Jones. But I did a lot of assumptions
18:18
Speaker 2: that he is going to continue to have a good
18:20
Speaker 2: season or do really well in the next year.
18:24
Speaker 1: Got it. If you were his agent, you'd probably push
18:29
Speaker 1: for a deal to get done before the start of
18:31
Speaker 1: this season, and probably for three years, right, because that
18:34
Speaker 1: would mean you get twenty twenty six, twenty seven, and
18:39
Speaker 1: twenty eight and then free agency twenty twenty nine. When
18:42
Speaker 1: you said the TV money kicks in, right, yea, the
18:46
Speaker 1: Eagles are probably going to push for a five year deal.
18:48
Speaker 1: But the Eagles have given a lot of three year
18:50
Speaker 1: deals himself, so they want capt maneuverability as well. And honestly,
18:55
Speaker 1: with Carter's injury history somewhat of his off field stuff,
18:59
Speaker 1: he's been all right, but they've been a little bit.
19:01
Speaker 1: Maybe it's probably safe on both sides. Then to revisit
19:04
Speaker 1: it after the after the TV money kicks in.
19:07
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I think those really good points. What do you
19:10
Speaker 2: think about this projection?
19:12
Speaker 1: I think it makes sense, I think comparatively to Quinn
19:15
Speaker 1: Williams and Jeffrey Simmons. He's played on a winning team
19:18
Speaker 1: that's won a Super Bowl. He's been a big part
19:19
Speaker 1: of it the Eagles typically, I think you're graph here
19:25
Speaker 1: illustrates how the Eagles feel about the position, because Jordan
19:28
Speaker 1: Davis is on this list at eight point six percent
19:31
Speaker 1: of the cap and he's coming off one like really awesome.
19:36
Speaker 1: He hasn't had a great career, He's had a really
19:38
Speaker 1: good last year and even then, I'm not sure you
19:42
Speaker 1: put him up in the same list of the as
19:45
Speaker 1: some of the guys here. So that's the Eagles, though,
19:47
Speaker 1: they will they covered the position. They want to keep
19:50
Speaker 1: their guys and they want they will spend big on
19:53
Speaker 1: those kind of guys.
19:54
Speaker 2: Yeah.
19:54
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I'd probably go closer to your eleven point five
19:58
Speaker 1: than thirteen percent, So probably closer to the thirty seven
20:02
Speaker 1: point six of the forty two to five. But again,
20:04
Speaker 1: that's still going to make him the highest paid TT
20:07
Speaker 1: in the league if he signs that.
20:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, good stuff.
20:12
Speaker 1: Speaking of dts, We'll go on to Moro.
20:15
Speaker 2: Jomo absolutely and talk about someone whose role has grown
20:21
Speaker 2: and has you know, actually done the opposite gone from.
20:25
Speaker 2: We looked at Carter who some sort of regress statistically
20:28
Speaker 2: a Jomo did not. He actually, you know, progressed right.
20:34
Speaker 1: You know how we always say like training camp doesn't matter,
20:36
Speaker 1: and you know, last year is a perfect example because
20:39
Speaker 1: at Philly Voice, me Jimmy Kemsky and some of the writers,
20:42
Speaker 1: we go to every training camp practice and each day
20:45
Speaker 1: we pick who we think is a star of the
20:48
Speaker 1: of the three stars. We picked three stars of training
20:50
Speaker 1: camp and at the end Jimmy tabulates who are who
20:53
Speaker 1: got the most stars? Right, well, last training camp, the
20:56
Speaker 1: offensive player with the most stars was Johan Dotson. Had
21:00
Speaker 1: a great camp, didn't really translate to a great season.
21:02
Speaker 1: The defensive player with the most stars was Moro Jomo,
21:06
Speaker 1: and it absolutely translated into a breakout. I mean the
21:10
Speaker 1: guy went from no career of sacks in three years
21:12
Speaker 1: that just six alone last year. Sacked percentage obviously way up,
21:15
Speaker 1: as pressure is way up and a good pressure percentage.
21:20
Speaker 2: Yeah absolutely, And actually I almost feel bad that I
21:25
Speaker 2: didn't mention this. But with Jalen Carter, his pressure percentage
21:29
Speaker 2: at twelve point three is also for his first year,
21:32
Speaker 2: was crazy.
21:33
Speaker 1: Yeah that's right, twelve yeah, twelve three.
21:37
Speaker 2: I think that's worth mentioning, especially when we're looking at
21:40
Speaker 2: O Jomo, because that nine point one percent for Jomo
21:44
Speaker 2: on his best year was pretty good too.
21:47
Speaker 1: Right. You'll notice though both of them had their highest
21:50
Speaker 1: when they were more rotating, much fewer snat. Obviously, the
21:53
Speaker 1: more you play, that number is gonna come down a
21:56
Speaker 1: little bit.
21:57
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I think that's worth discussing for sure.
22:01
Speaker 1: Absolutely, all right, So we go back to what the
22:03
Speaker 1: interior d line market looks like with some added So
22:08
Speaker 1: you added some names on this list.
22:10
Speaker 2: Yes, I took the top end and kind of condensed
22:14
Speaker 2: it a little bit, just because again we have to
22:16
Speaker 2: look relative to where they are. I don't think Moro
22:20
Speaker 2: Jomo is going to reset the idal market. I think
22:23
Speaker 2: Carter will, so I think just looking comparably where they are.
22:28
Speaker 2: And by the way, this actually made me feel a
22:30
Speaker 2: lot better about Jordan Davis's contract in this analysis, because
22:35
Speaker 2: I think he actually does slot. I do think he
22:38
Speaker 2: got paid more than he probably could have or should have,
22:42
Speaker 2: but he slots in pretty well with the rest of
22:44
Speaker 2: these names. I'm pretty comfortable.
22:46
Speaker 1: Especially I'm sure that this involved a little bit more
22:49
Speaker 1: of projection that he was going to continue to trend
22:52
Speaker 1: upward and not just be what he was last year. Right, Sure,
22:56
Speaker 1: I mean Barmore is a pretty dominant player when he's healthy.
22:59
Speaker 1: Leonard Williams just want a Super Bowl. He's He's always
23:01
Speaker 1: been a really good interior pass rusher. Probably a little
23:05
Speaker 1: more so, Yeah, definitely more so than Jordan Davis. Sure,
23:09
Speaker 1: Kenny Clark, I guess the contract. I mean earlier in
23:12
Speaker 1: the contract. I loved Kenny Clark like three to four years.
23:14
Speaker 1: I signed it in twenty twenty four. But he's sort
23:17
Speaker 1: of requested a little bit as he's gotten older. But yeah,
23:20
Speaker 1: but hey, I mean right now, the forty nine ers
23:23
Speaker 1: are stealing odiggi suwa. He's a good player. Seven point
23:26
Speaker 1: two percent of.
23:26
Speaker 2: The cap exactly. And you know what's crazy is originally
23:31
Speaker 2: when I was doing that analysis when Digi Zooa signed,
23:36
Speaker 2: I thought it was a ridiculous contract just based on
23:38
Speaker 2: the number. But again, it's the percent of cap that matters,
23:41
Speaker 2: and that's that's kind of when my line of thinking started,
23:45
Speaker 2: particularly with the Milton Williams two when I was pretty
23:49
Speaker 2: my projection was a lot lower, but I wasn't the
23:51
Speaker 2: only one who projected them lower. But I think that
23:53
Speaker 2: this analysis is better, and I hope it proves to
23:58
Speaker 2: be I don't hope, I know is going to prove
24:00
Speaker 2: to be more accurate.
24:01
Speaker 1: So all right, So then I guess the conclusion I
24:04
Speaker 1: would draw is if if you what this tells you
24:08
Speaker 1: is that Moro Joe was likely to command between eight
24:12
Speaker 1: and nine percent of the cap. Even if it's seven
24:14
Speaker 1: and a half to nine percent of the cap, we're
24:16
Speaker 1: looking at like twenty three to thirty million dollars ap
24:20
Speaker 1: y and I just don't see how the Eagles can
24:22
Speaker 1: be able to afford him. Jordan Davis and the number
24:26
Speaker 1: that we discussed with Jalen Carter. I know that Egles
24:30
Speaker 1: love to have Moro Joe will wrapped up. They've talked,
24:33
Speaker 1: but this situation again, I think that you know, Joemo's
24:38
Speaker 1: agent's probably telling him, look, look what could be out
24:41
Speaker 1: there for you like it was for Milton Williams and
24:44
Speaker 1: Jill and Phillips if you just continue to, you know,
24:47
Speaker 1: do what you've been doing for the last few years.
24:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean interestingly to your point. We talked
24:53
Speaker 2: about Milton Williams got twenty six million, right, and I
24:56
Speaker 2: think you have to naturally compare Milton Williams and more Jomo.
25:00
Speaker 2: But if you look at it, that was nine point
25:02
Speaker 2: three percent at the time of signing. I don't think
25:06
Speaker 2: Moro Jomo is going to get that nine point three
25:08
Speaker 2: yet his number, his salary cap number or his salary
25:11
Speaker 2: number for ap Y is actually going to be higher
25:14
Speaker 2: than Milton Williams contract.
25:15
Speaker 1: But again that overall cap right, exactly right, And I
25:19
Speaker 1: think that's yeah, yeah, that no, that that's that's really interesting. Man.
25:25
Speaker 1: This is a tough one for Howie. I know he
25:26
Speaker 1: would love to have Morojomo extended and have that those
25:29
Speaker 1: three guys, but it's really difficult if the if these
25:32
Speaker 1: projections are going to come to fruition, that would be
25:34
Speaker 1: really difficult. Agreed, Well, looks like another year of a
25:37
Speaker 1: third round of the third round compensatory pick for the Eagles.
25:42
Speaker 1: They'll take it, all right, good stuff, all right. We'll
25:47
Speaker 1: finish off with j Lex Hunt edge rusher who last year, Sam,
25:52
Speaker 1: you may recall, set a franchise record by leading the
25:56
Speaker 1: defense in both sacks and interceptions.
26:00
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm not.
26:02
Speaker 1: Sure if that's like that. First of all, it's a
26:04
Speaker 1: great stat for him. Not sure that's you know, obviously,
26:06
Speaker 1: the secondary i'd be you know how, like the competitions
26:10
Speaker 1: are in teams, Like if I'm a corner on the team,
26:12
Speaker 1: if I'm Queinna Mitchell or Cooper de Gen or Rik Walling,
26:15
Speaker 1: I'm telling Chills Hunt this year, there's no way, no
26:18
Speaker 1: way we're letting him do that again.
26:19
Speaker 2: No, and I don't think I think if you record
26:23
Speaker 2: all the history of the Philadelphia Eagles, I don't think
26:26
Speaker 2: that's happened very often.
26:28
Speaker 1: No. No, Like I said, he was the first in
26:30
Speaker 1: history to have the most interceptions in sacks. So yeah,
26:33
Speaker 1: but yeah, to your point, it's probably the first time
26:35
Speaker 1: a front seven guy has led the team in interceptions.
26:37
Speaker 2: That's what I meant for, yeah.
26:40
Speaker 1: Or an edge guy. Yeah, as we see here, he
26:44
Speaker 1: exploded from one and a half sacks to six and
26:46
Speaker 1: a half two percent sack rate. Man, look at those
26:50
Speaker 1: pressures from nine to fifty seven. So I just want
26:53
Speaker 1: everybody to understand the math here. He played about three
26:57
Speaker 1: times as many snaps from his rookie year second year,
27:00
Speaker 1: but he had about six to seven times as many pressures,
27:05
Speaker 1: and he more than doubled his Uh it's about a
27:08
Speaker 1: thirty percent increase right in in uh now, now, hold
27:11
Speaker 1: on three hundred percent increase in quarterback percentage. I'm bad
27:14
Speaker 1: at Matt.
27:15
Speaker 2: Sam you're talking about for the just the pressures.
27:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, pressure percentage, Yeah, one point four to seventeen point three.
27:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's he what he like five exit so yeah.
27:29
Speaker 1: So really good. We'll just say it was amazing what
27:32
Speaker 1: he did. Yeah, all right, So let's look at the
27:35
Speaker 1: the edge market and try to comp here. And good
27:38
Speaker 1: of you to point out that Grenard is already occupying
27:41
Speaker 1: eight point one percent of the cap on his extension. Yeah.
27:44
Speaker 2: And I also think eyes will naturally wander to the
27:46
Speaker 2: Jalen Phillips, which is why I didn't cut him off
27:48
Speaker 2: here right where he got ten percent. I I also
27:54
Speaker 2: I think he got overpaid personally, But again it's because
27:58
Speaker 2: the contract thing. Yeah it is. It is now definitively
28:03
Speaker 2: a comp and a precedent that is referred to in
28:06
Speaker 2: the salary. I do think you know that sevent if
28:11
Speaker 2: he can maintain that seventeen percent quarterback pressure rate, that
28:15
Speaker 2: is elite. That is definitively elite. And the problem is
28:19
Speaker 2: edge like quarterback is one of the most like it is.
28:24
Speaker 2: It is one of the highest paid positions in football,
28:27
Speaker 2: and it's probably a little bit overpaid in a lot
28:29
Speaker 2: of ways, right, and that helps these players that do well.
28:35
Speaker 2: And so also, I think it's worth mentioning first before
28:38
Speaker 2: we even go into this that even though Will Anderson
28:42
Speaker 2: got paid the highest as an edge player, Micah Parsons
28:46
Speaker 2: contract is still the highest as percent of cap right,
28:49
Speaker 2: good point, despite being a little bit lower because it
28:52
Speaker 2: was a year prior. And I just think that that
28:55
Speaker 2: it's only zero point one percent more. But I think
28:58
Speaker 2: that goes to show you that, you know, a lot
29:00
Speaker 2: of these times these agents are like, we got a
29:02
Speaker 2: record setting contract, and yet like it's not unprecedented.
29:07
Speaker 1: Right, right, So this is probably the most difficult projection
29:11
Speaker 1: of all of your three guys because of how young
29:16
Speaker 1: and how much upside that Hunt has. Would No, I
29:18
Speaker 1: don't think anybody would be surprised if Jiles Hunt had
29:22
Speaker 1: twelve and a half sacks this season, like thirty five quarterback.
29:25
Speaker 1: It's something that pushed him into that ten percent of
29:29
Speaker 1: the cap or higher category. But I also don't think
29:32
Speaker 1: anybody be shocked if he fell more into the eight
29:36
Speaker 1: to ten sack like the Oay carloftis kind of category,
29:40
Speaker 1: which is you know, seven and a half to eight
29:43
Speaker 1: and a half percent, So like his money, it could
29:46
Speaker 1: be anywhere, man.
29:47
Speaker 2: It could And I tried to, you know, project higher
29:51
Speaker 2: upside more than downside, but right it's it is. It's
29:55
Speaker 2: really hard to do, and so I felt comfortable with
29:59
Speaker 2: that seven and a half to nine percent. I went
30:01
Speaker 2: back and forth on the numbers, and.
30:03
Speaker 1: No, I think it's I think it was really I
30:06
Speaker 1: really paid attention to that one, especially compared to your
30:08
Speaker 1: other two, and I thought that one was probably the
30:11
Speaker 1: They're all fair, but that one really because of the
30:13
Speaker 1: difficulty in trying to project it was like kind of
30:16
Speaker 1: on the money.
30:17
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, And so I think that puts him
30:20
Speaker 2: anywhere from twenty four point five to twenty nine point
30:22
Speaker 2: four million a.
30:23
Speaker 1: Year, right right, So, and that's that's interesting with Grenard
30:27
Speaker 1: currently occupying eight point one percent of the cap, and
30:30
Speaker 1: then so that throws sort of a curveball into the
30:34
Speaker 1: future of Nolan Smith, who's on his who's also had
30:39
Speaker 1: his fifth year picked up, So that one is not
30:42
Speaker 1: as expensive as Jillen Carter is. Obviously, I forget. I
30:45
Speaker 1: think it's like only like thirteen twelve or thirteen million.
30:49
Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, So it's it's thirteen point seven
30:52
Speaker 1: million for Nolan Smith. So you know, if they wind
30:58
Speaker 1: up giving or if he winds up earning to Alex
31:02
Speaker 1: Hunt a seven point five to nine percent of the
31:05
Speaker 1: cap type of contract, then it's I think it's gonna
31:08
Speaker 1: be really difficult for them to retain. They may just
31:10
Speaker 1: ride it out again with Nolan Smith, let him leave
31:13
Speaker 1: HI free agency, get a huge compensatory pick, or maybe
31:17
Speaker 1: he becomes trade bait.
31:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally, you can see that totally.
31:21
Speaker 1: Would you say it would be very difficult to envision
31:23
Speaker 1: contract extensions for both Hunt and Nolan Smith with Grenard
31:28
Speaker 1: already occupying eight point one.
31:29
Speaker 2: Percent, correct, Yeah, there's not a world where that happens,
31:33
Speaker 2: especially considering all the other contracts that are coming up
31:37
Speaker 2: in the next couple of years, right.
31:38
Speaker 1: I mean, we just talked about the Carter one, the
31:40
Speaker 1: Ajomo one we did not have. We haven't discussed about
31:44
Speaker 1: the one that Quinna Mitchell Cooper de jen I mean
31:47
Speaker 1: that you just can't pay everybody, and when you're as
31:49
Speaker 1: deep as they are at edge right now, someone something's
31:53
Speaker 1: got to give, you know, good stuff. My friend.
31:58
Speaker 3: By the way, if you're think about hitting any away
32:01
Speaker 3: games this season, check out Eagles Fan Travel. They put
32:05
Speaker 3: together full weekend experiences for Eagles fans. That's flights, hotels,
32:09
Speaker 3: game tickets, tailgates, exclusive events, even appearances from former players.
32:15
Speaker 3: It's honestly one of the coolest ways to experience an
32:17
Speaker 3: away game. Head to Philadelphia Eagles dot com slash travel
32:21
Speaker 3: to secure your spot.
32:22
Speaker 1: Hey, Philly fans, game day is stressful enough. Parking, traffic,
32:26
Speaker 1: long lines, We've all been there, But when it comes
32:29
Speaker 1: to your cannabis, Camden Apothecary makes it easy. This is
32:33
Speaker 1: the dispensary for sports fans, just minutes outside of Philly,
32:37
Speaker 1: with plenty of free parking. You'll be in and out fast,
32:40
Speaker 1: no hassle, no waiting, and they don't just care about convenience.
32:44
Speaker 1: Camden Apothecary is all about the guest experience. Their staff
32:49
Speaker 1: makes sure you feel taken care of every time you
32:52
Speaker 1: walk in. Plus, they carry only the best quality cannabis
32:56
Speaker 1: at the fairest prices, so whether you're stocking up for
32:59
Speaker 1: the tailgate, the watch party, or celebrating a big win,
33:03
Speaker 1: you know you're getting the good stuff without overpaying. They
33:07
Speaker 1: even show love to the community with specials for fans, students,
33:11
Speaker 1: service members, and healthcare pros. Camed inn Apothecary, top quality cannabis,
33:17
Speaker 1: great prices, and an experience made for Philly fans twenty
33:20
Speaker 1: one and up. That is it for the three defensive players.
33:24
Speaker 1: I hope everybody feels a little more educated on what
33:27
Speaker 1: we're looking at. A lot of money, and after going
33:32
Speaker 1: through this, I think it's almost impossible for them to
33:35
Speaker 1: retain a Jomo unless he's willing to agree to a
33:39
Speaker 1: team friendly deal. I should throw that caveat out there, Carter,
33:44
Speaker 1: I see that happening. But we kind of have to
33:46
Speaker 1: see how this year goes right with the show. Look,
33:49
Speaker 1: I think that they will try to get it done
33:50
Speaker 1: before the season starts because it makes sense to But
33:54
Speaker 1: we'll see. And then jelgs Hunt is not eligible until
33:58
Speaker 1: next year, so he's got the most. Really, he's got
34:00
Speaker 1: the most on the line.
34:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agreed. Totally agreed.
34:05
Speaker 1: I think if Jomo just has the exact repeat of
34:09
Speaker 1: last year with the same cast around him, he's gonna
34:13
Speaker 1: get paid pretty well on free agency. Maybe not maybe
34:15
Speaker 1: not the third of the twenty six million Milton Williams made,
34:19
Speaker 1: but around that based on the projections. You know, get
34:23
Speaker 1: six sacks, get a bunch of pressures, get a high
34:25
Speaker 1: win rate. He's not as good of a run defender,
34:28
Speaker 1: so maybe that'll hurt him a little bit, but he's
34:29
Speaker 1: those long arms in those passing lanes.
34:31
Speaker 2: Man, I almost guarantee he's gonna get more than that
34:35
Speaker 2: twenty six million. And again that's yeah, but I think
34:39
Speaker 2: that's reflected if he goes on the open market. Again,
34:42
Speaker 2: if he goes on the open market. But again that's
34:44
Speaker 2: just because the salary caps increased so much. I just
34:49
Speaker 2: almost it's almost a foregone conclusion in my head. Barring
34:52
Speaker 2: any catastrophic you know, season, an injury, God forbid or
34:57
Speaker 2: anything like that, I would almost guarantee he'll be over
35:01
Speaker 2: that twenty six million.
35:02
Speaker 1: Which actually makes me think, as we close it off here, Sam, like,
35:05
Speaker 1: what would even a team friendly deal look like?
35:08
Speaker 2: Like?
35:09
Speaker 1: Is that twenty two million years that's still I don't
35:11
Speaker 1: know if affordable on the Eagles part with Davis and
35:14
Speaker 1: Carter and everybody else.
35:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a team friendly deal would be that
35:17
Speaker 2: around that twenty two million dollar for sure.
35:19
Speaker 1: Still not sure that they can make that happen unless
35:21
Speaker 1: it's a two year ago something like that.
35:23
Speaker 2: I totally agree, but I think it's worth pointing out for.
35:26
Speaker 1: Sureah, great stuff, Sam, really really good stuff. Looking forward
35:29
Speaker 1: to our next episode when we do this for some
35:32
Speaker 1: of the guys on Offense that we mentioned. That's gonna
35:34
Speaker 1: do it for this episode of Inside the Data for
35:37
Speaker 1: Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Moster, and again you've been watching
35:40
Speaker 1: Inside the Data on Inside the Birds