Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 7

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 7 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
0:16
Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
0:20
Speaker 1: Mellman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
0:23
Speaker 1: We will review the faves five picks we put into
0:27
Speaker 1: the contest di sect, why we left some games out, fascinating,
0:32
Speaker 1: fascinating conversations Simon and I had in the noon hour
0:36
Speaker 1: before we finalized our picks. We're gonna preview the lines
0:38
Speaker 1: we like for week eight. I'm joined as always by
0:42
Speaker 1: the mentioned co host companion Campadre BFF Professional Better Simed
0:48
Speaker 1: Hunter Ella Simed. Hello, Chad, dude, a fascinating, fascinating day.
0:57
Speaker 1: We're gonna break it down. But before the early games,
1:00
Speaker 1: there was a run on betting the Niners. When they
1:04
Speaker 1: were favored by one and a half, it got up
1:06
Speaker 1: to two. It got up to two and a half
1:09
Speaker 1: at a lot of books. The number also moved in
1:13
Speaker 1: the contest right, So for anybody listening, you can make
1:16
Speaker 1: contest picks anytime during the week, but if you decide
1:19
Speaker 1: to make a change, you got to change all your numbers.
1:22
Speaker 2: I have been hesitating on.
1:23
Speaker 1: The Chiefs from a math perspective and a team health perspective.
1:28
Speaker 1: To me, it just didn't make sense to bet them
1:30
Speaker 1: at less than the key number of two. Simon didn't care.
1:33
Speaker 1: Simon was headstrong that betting against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
1:39
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what anything says in the box score
1:43
Speaker 1: or what any injuries are existing for the team. You
1:47
Speaker 1: just bet Patrick Mahomes is a dog or a short favorite.
1:49
Speaker 1: So on Sunday morning, we did something.
1:51
Speaker 2: We never do.
1:52
Speaker 1: We made a flurry of last second changes to our picks,
1:55
Speaker 1: all in service of getting the Chiefs at plus two
1:59
Speaker 1: and a half half. How did it impact us? Let's
2:04
Speaker 1: find out. And by the way, if you believe you
2:06
Speaker 1: could beat our picks this season, be our guest. Let
2:08
Speaker 1: us pay you forty thousand dollars. Sign up at Favorites
2:11
Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com catch every episode of The Favorites
2:15
Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
2:18
Speaker 1: to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
2:20
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by
2:26
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new BET three sixty
2:29
Speaker 1: five Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When
2:32
Speaker 1: you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
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2:42
Speaker 1: can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more,
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2:48
Speaker 2: It's never ordinary.
2:49
Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five, must be twenty one or
2:51
Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
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3:08
Speaker 1: So when we decided we wanted to get the Chiefs
3:11
Speaker 1: in at plus two and a half, we had to
3:13
Speaker 1: go with all the updated lines. As I mentioned before,
3:16
Speaker 1: at that point, the Packers, who we had been leaning
3:20
Speaker 1: towards all week, we're now at three and a half,
3:22
Speaker 1: not the two and a half that we had lucked in.
3:24
Speaker 1: We took out the packers. Great trade. Better to get
3:29
Speaker 1: the number on the Chiefs. So and we will get
3:34
Speaker 1: to this, so don't say anything yet, Simon, because my
3:37
Speaker 1: bff here loved, loved, loved the Giants. He wanted them
3:43
Speaker 1: in so bad he tried to get me to take them.
3:46
Speaker 1: Unconvinced me. All week long. I had been saying, I
3:49
Speaker 1: don't trust this team. I don't trust the team. Without
3:51
Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas, zero packed protection, they can't score at home.
3:56
Speaker 1: Simon insisted we will discuss. He will defend in a moment.
4:02
Speaker 1: Here's a crazy stat from Evan that he gave on
4:06
Speaker 1: convince me this morning. Catch it live on YouTube and
4:09
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Heading into today, overall road
4:14
Speaker 1: teams sixty one percent against the spread this season, second
4:19
Speaker 1: best win percentage through seven weeks in the Wildcard era.
4:23
Speaker 1: That's since nineteen ninety. Today, road teams against the spread
4:28
Speaker 1: seven and three. Also, road favorites are undefeated since week
4:37
Speaker 1: five fifteen and oh, road faves.
4:41
Speaker 2: Since week five.
4:42
Speaker 1: That is insane. Today they went to and oh about
4:45
Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Eagles covered as road faves. We
4:49
Speaker 1: of course, were on the other side of both of
4:51
Speaker 1: those games. Let's start with Cincinnati and Cleveland. One of
4:56
Speaker 1: those games. You know, Look, the way it started was
5:00
Speaker 1: exactly as we expected it to start. Simon like wighs
5:03
Speaker 1: good and bad. You know, the Bengals run the opening
5:06
Speaker 1: kickback for a touchdown. The Browns defense was awesome. They
5:11
Speaker 1: were in the Bengals backfield. They were stopping Joe Burrow
5:14
Speaker 1: on third down, stopping on the run. The Bengals could
5:18
Speaker 1: not score. The only thing was, of course, the missed
5:23
Speaker 1: field goal by the Browns. As soon as that happened,
5:27
Speaker 1: we knew it was terrible.
5:30
Speaker 2: But then the Browns are driving.
5:34
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson doesn't look terrible, drops back, moves forward, ruptures
5:42
Speaker 1: his achilles and I don't know if you saw this,
5:44
Speaker 1: but watching it on slow motion, I've never seen what
5:49
Speaker 1: the injury looks like. And they had the perfect angle
5:51
Speaker 1: where the bot his heel just dropped like he steps.
5:55
Speaker 1: You see it snap. You see the heel drop when
5:57
Speaker 1: it should not be dropping.
5:59
Speaker 2: It was.
6:00
Speaker 1: It was disconcerting and uncomfortable. I don't know what you
6:03
Speaker 1: were thinking.
6:03
Speaker 3: Then it's the worst. It makes my skin crawl even
6:06
Speaker 3: here and you talk about it. Yeah, it's one of
6:09
Speaker 3: my biggest fears. I'm one of those people where it's
6:10
Speaker 3: like every time my leg's a little tight, I'm like,
6:12
Speaker 3: oh my god, that is tearing my achilles. So now
6:15
Speaker 3: you're right that that was probably his best drive of
6:19
Speaker 3: the season. Honestly, that's how bad he's been. He was
6:21
Speaker 3: making good throws driving down the field, and yeah, got
6:24
Speaker 3: bit by the injury bug.
6:26
Speaker 2: It was. And I felt like we had a little
6:30
Speaker 2: bit of a shot.
6:32
Speaker 1: In that game because I thought they were playing really
6:35
Speaker 1: well and their defense was lights out. It was I mean,
6:39
Speaker 1: I'm i it was a super bummer. And then Dorian
6:43
Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson comes in, makes a good sort of throw
6:49
Speaker 1: to the outside shoulder of the receiver, gets the call
6:53
Speaker 1: for pass interference.
6:55
Speaker 2: They're on the one.
6:56
Speaker 1: Of course, like they get called for a legal formation
7:01
Speaker 1: or whatever, so they back it up, but they still
7:03
Speaker 1: go for it, and then they missed the extra point.
7:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just we talked about before the show, when
7:10
Speaker 3: he missed that fieldgal in the first half and they
7:12
Speaker 3: get a kick return, you're already down ten now with
7:16
Speaker 3: a dog Usually it's really tough to come back from that.
7:19
Speaker 3: And you know, I don't know what happened, but they
7:22
Speaker 3: made Jameis Winston their third quarterback and end up coming
7:26
Speaker 3: at end of the game actually giving us a chance
7:28
Speaker 3: at giving the back door still thank you, Jamis. But yeah,
7:33
Speaker 3: just it's bad, like we're having this bad luck on
7:36
Speaker 3: these home dogs. Things are just that's why you take
7:39
Speaker 3: these dogs. So you have stupid bounces in football, and
7:41
Speaker 3: they usually bounce the way of the dog, I mean
7:45
Speaker 3: historically long term. Like I said, that's why you want
7:47
Speaker 3: to make these bets. So the reason I want to
7:49
Speaker 3: take Cleveland the same reason I want to take the Giants.
7:51
Speaker 3: It's like, at worst I thought we would go one
7:53
Speaker 3: on one. I thought we had a really good chance
7:55
Speaker 3: of going to and out where it's like I like
7:56
Speaker 3: these spots. We're getting good point value. Both these teams
8:00
Speaker 3: coming in are a little bit overrated and a little
8:02
Speaker 3: shakey offensively, and both teams are boom and busts. And
8:05
Speaker 3: we saw that, like the Eagles had a couple of
8:07
Speaker 3: big boom plays that worked out from same with Cincinnati. Right,
8:10
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's offense, like you said, they didn't do much. Brown's
8:13
Speaker 3: defense did pretty good. And you know, I was filing
8:17
Speaker 3: pretty good going to half, even though we had lost Watson.
8:19
Speaker 3: It was seven to six, like they just got to
8:21
Speaker 3: keep this in arm's length and he had fortunately a
8:24
Speaker 3: couple of bad turnovers. You know, twenty one to six
8:27
Speaker 3: that Brown's bet was dead.
8:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, there was a key play. I think the Browns
8:33
Speaker 1: were in field goal range, had a fourth and one,
8:37
Speaker 1: and I said to my kid sitting next to me
8:39
Speaker 1: on the couch, you got to run the RPO like
8:43
Speaker 1: Dorian Thompson. Robinson had been having his way with running
8:47
Speaker 1: the ball in that game. Why they drop him back?
8:52
Speaker 1: Why they don't give him the option to run? He's
8:55
Speaker 1: so fast. The Bengals still had not been able to
8:58
Speaker 1: really adjust for or a different kind of quarterback in
9:01
Speaker 1: the game. You gotta go one freaking yard and you
9:03
Speaker 1: got Nick chub like, let him make the play at
9:08
Speaker 1: the point of contact with the running back.
9:12
Speaker 2: You you're with me right like? It didn't make it
9:14
Speaker 2: any Like. I'm an idiot.
9:18
Speaker 1: I don't know anything about football, and I knew that
9:21
Speaker 1: the most common play right now, that every running quarterback,
9:27
Speaker 1: that every athletic quarterback, that even non athletic quarterbacks run,
9:31
Speaker 1: is an r PO. And Kevin Stefanski, who I love,
9:34
Speaker 1: does not call an RPO.
9:36
Speaker 2: That's you. You deserve what you get in that spot.
9:39
Speaker 3: That's how I view it.
9:42
Speaker 2: Good.
9:42
Speaker 1: I'm glad we agree mentioned the Giants. You insisted we
9:47
Speaker 1: had the Giants plus three and a half. Yeah, all
9:50
Speaker 1: week you tried to tempt me.
9:51
Speaker 2: You didn't. Bully, Definitely I.
9:54
Speaker 3: Got you, though, I eventually got you come around the under.
9:57
Speaker 1: But you did and and I appreciate that. I mean,
10:01
Speaker 1: this game was dreadful to start, like, just sacks on
10:03
Speaker 1: every single both.
10:04
Speaker 3: Sides are just That's why I thought it was going
10:06
Speaker 3: to be just an ugly, sloppy like game. But the
10:10
Speaker 3: Giants quickly learned. The difference of the game was the
10:12
Speaker 3: guy that got rid of Barkley. He was a game changer, right.
10:15
Speaker 3: I think he had one hundred and sixty yards rushing.
10:17
Speaker 2: More than that?
10:18
Speaker 3: Did he really look it up?
10:19
Speaker 2: Right now?
10:20
Speaker 1: He had more than that? I think he said a record.
10:22
Speaker 1: He's already the leading rusher in the history of the Meadowlands.
10:26
Speaker 1: I think he had like one hundred and seventy five
10:28
Speaker 1: yards rushing.
10:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it was a bad bet. And like again,
10:34
Speaker 3: it's a game where the things when we need to
10:37
Speaker 3: bounce our way just didn't. I think it was a
10:39
Speaker 3: fourth and three, you know, Hurts throws a bomb. Aj
10:43
Speaker 3: Browns was a touchdown on a fourth down, you know.
10:47
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones finally puts a good drive together, they score
10:49
Speaker 3: a touchdown, his first touchdown in six hundred days passing
10:53
Speaker 3: in the meadowlands. They call it back on offensive pass interference.
10:57
Speaker 3: It was just, yeah, the little thing that we need
11:00
Speaker 3: to go ourway to not and yeah, I'm just getting
11:03
Speaker 3: burned right now in these home divisional dogs, like I
11:05
Speaker 3: love taking home dogs, and man, it is not coming around.
11:11
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley had one hundred and seventy six yards rushing,
11:15
Speaker 1: and you the Giants' defense has been playing lights out.
11:21
Speaker 1: And before the season, we all sort of thought that
11:26
Speaker 1: the coverage unit for the Giants was going to be terrible.
11:29
Speaker 1: They haven't been. We didn't know what the pass rush
11:32
Speaker 1: is going to be. They've been amazing, leading the league
11:36
Speaker 1: in sacks.
11:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I.
11:38
Speaker 1: Feel terrible for this Giants defensive unit because they are
11:41
Speaker 1: playing lights out. They really are. They're playing amazing. They
11:45
Speaker 1: are getting less than help from their office. They're getting
11:48
Speaker 1: negative help. They're getting the opposite of help. They're getting
11:54
Speaker 1: like the defense is actually made. The offense is making
11:57
Speaker 1: it much much harder for them, right, and at some
12:01
Speaker 1: point they're gonna break, Like they they barely gave up
12:05
Speaker 1: the big plays in the first half, there were two
12:07
Speaker 1: of them to Saque and then like you meant mentioned
12:10
Speaker 1: the fourth and three from Jalen Hurst to AJ Brown,
12:13
Speaker 1: Like they're not going to be perfect, but the Giants
12:16
Speaker 1: offense is terrible, can't do anything. It's so it's so frustrating, dude,
12:22
Speaker 1: it's so frustrating. At one point in the middle of
12:25
Speaker 1: the second quarter, the Giants had been sacked four times
12:30
Speaker 1: and they had four touchdowns, I mean four first downs,
12:33
Speaker 1: four first downs, not touchdowns.
12:35
Speaker 3: Right right right, Yeah, again, it's it's a bad read,
12:41
Speaker 3: but this is this is life betting ugly dogs. So
12:44
Speaker 3: it's like, I agree with everything you said, but it's
12:46
Speaker 3: just it's just brutal where we can't catch breaks right
12:49
Speaker 3: now in these ugly dogs and it's like the only
12:51
Speaker 3: thing hitting for us is chalk, Like we're vetting. You know,
12:55
Speaker 3: normally I wouldn't loved that Lions line, but we just
12:57
Speaker 3: kept talking about something was off with that line. So
13:00
Speaker 3: it's just, you know, another week of the bets that
13:03
Speaker 3: we usually win we lose, and the chalky bets we
13:06
Speaker 3: make that we usually are a little scared to even make.
13:08
Speaker 3: They're no brain or hitters right now, Like it's just
13:11
Speaker 3: chalk is king and we kind of need to adjust
13:13
Speaker 3: to it. So yeah, hopefully that ends with the Bucks
13:17
Speaker 3: on Monday night.
13:19
Speaker 1: Evan, if you could look this up real fast, I'd
13:21
Speaker 1: love to know and just throw it in the chat.
13:23
Speaker 1: How is the public doing this week? We know they
13:26
Speaker 1: crushed last week, Simon and I won with the public.
13:31
Speaker 1: We're winning today again with the public. Detroit was a
13:35
Speaker 1: public side, The Chiefs were a public side, The Bills
13:40
Speaker 1: were a public side. I think those were three of
13:43
Speaker 1: the bigger public sides this week. But I'd love to know, like,
13:48
Speaker 1: are we headed for another regression? Is it two weeks
13:50
Speaker 1: in a row that were sort of The public is
13:53
Speaker 1: cashing on a regular basis, much more than they had
13:57
Speaker 1: been in the past.
13:58
Speaker 2: Remember the first five.
14:00
Speaker 1: Weeks of the year, the public had been doing historically bad,
14:05
Speaker 1: so obviously there was going to be some regression, But
14:08
Speaker 1: how much is too much at this point? Just to
14:11
Speaker 1: close the book on the Giants, Daniel Jones threw for
14:15
Speaker 1: ninety nine yards, which is less than four point seven
14:18
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. They had one hundred and nineteen total
14:23
Speaker 1: yards in the game, and they were sacked eight times
14:28
Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones was pulled for Drew freaking lock. You
14:36
Speaker 1: know it's a lock that your bet has lost when
14:41
Speaker 1: Drew Locke enters the chap. Imagine being John Marra, the
14:48
Speaker 1: owner of the Giants and the GM for the Giants,
14:52
Speaker 1: knowing that the story of the summer was them on.
14:59
Speaker 2: Whatever that's show is called that I can't remember, Hard Knocks,
15:02
Speaker 2: Hard Knocks, and the.
15:04
Speaker 1: Whole first couple episodes are about keeping Saquon, letting him go,
15:08
Speaker 1: and the owner being like.
15:11
Speaker 2: He's the most popular player.
15:13
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be really disappointed if he's in the division,
15:16
Speaker 1: in the division, one hundred and seventy six touchdowns, domination
15:21
Speaker 1: station makes.
15:24
Speaker 2: The Eagles look healthy.
15:25
Speaker 3: No, he's incredible.
15:27
Speaker 1: Detroit plus one and a half at Minnesota, we had
15:30
Speaker 1: it and this one was going so well for us
15:32
Speaker 1: and for me, like we were all in on Detroit,
15:35
Speaker 1: never waivered.
15:36
Speaker 3: That's the way to win.
15:37
Speaker 2: Man.
15:37
Speaker 3: Now you're figuring it out. Now we're figuring it out.
15:41
Speaker 3: That's outstanding, gentlemen.
15:42
Speaker 1: Oh, I was on the over, never even close to
15:48
Speaker 1: not covering. I was on Jared goff over twenty three
15:51
Speaker 1: and a half completions. Crunner had given it out at
15:54
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half. I barely missed the best
15:56
Speaker 1: of the number and look, after a sluggish start, I
16:00
Speaker 1: thrilled because the Lions they came roaring back.
16:09
Speaker 3: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
16:11
Speaker 3: this excited about the Lions. Talk about restoring the roar.
16:17
Speaker 1: Listen to him.
16:19
Speaker 2: They were up twenty one to ten and a half.
16:21
Speaker 1: Jared Goff continued his hot streak of not even throwing incompletions.
16:26
Speaker 1: True story, Simon at halftime, I bet Jared Goff seventeen
16:32
Speaker 1: to one to win MVP.
16:36
Speaker 3: So go ahead and apologize to Detroit fans right now
16:38
Speaker 3: because we are career enders this year. Chat everyone we
16:40
Speaker 3: bet on dies.
16:43
Speaker 2: I mean, look we had It's not true.
16:44
Speaker 3: It's true we had. How bad luck we are, so
16:49
Speaker 3: I wouldn't even said anything. You better be.
16:51
Speaker 2: Careful getting the number one seed gets hurt.
16:56
Speaker 3: Now everyone's gonna blame you. I'm gonna blame you. I'll
16:59
Speaker 3: be honest.
17:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know you're right. Listen, We're about transparency, and.
17:03
Speaker 1: So we have to share what we do, both the
17:06
Speaker 1: good and the bad. Right we talked about the Panthers.
17:09
Speaker 1: We didn't do anything with the Panthers this week. Good
17:12
Speaker 1: for us, Thank god you know, but if we're going to.
17:15
Speaker 2: Bet the Lions, and I'm going to.
17:16
Speaker 3: Bet it was so tempting too. I don't know about you,
17:18
Speaker 3: but it got up to ten. That was tempting.
17:21
Speaker 2: Wow. Listen, we'll talk for a second.
17:26
Speaker 1: At the end of this about me panic texting you
17:30
Speaker 1: this morning when Mason Rudolph.
17:32
Speaker 3: I get it, you know, I know. We're just trying
17:35
Speaker 3: to find winners wherever we fucking can chat. I get it.
17:38
Speaker 2: Jesus all right.
17:39
Speaker 1: So then the lines were up twenty at seventeen. Yeah,
17:43
Speaker 1: and I don't know about you, you can tell me
17:45
Speaker 1: what you think. The last couple of weeks, we've just
17:47
Speaker 1: been snaked it right the Giant Vangels.
17:49
Speaker 3: I was like, this is too easy.
17:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was not going to go our way.
17:54
Speaker 3: No Montgomery, as soon as he fumbled that when he
17:57
Speaker 3: punched that out perfectly and it skip bounced right up
17:59
Speaker 3: to that, I think it was either cornerback of linebacker,
18:02
Speaker 3: just perfect, right in full step. He takes it for
18:05
Speaker 3: a touchdown. I was like, Okay, at least it's on
18:09
Speaker 3: the one, right, as long as they don't get the
18:11
Speaker 3: two point or me and Chad will somehow cover this number.
18:14
Speaker 3: They didn't get to two, and all I think to
18:17
Speaker 3: myself was, please don't throw a pick six golf like,
18:20
Speaker 3: because at the time, again we were staring at oh
18:23
Speaker 3: and two and it's like, are we really about to
18:24
Speaker 3: start another week? Ohen three? I know I can't handle
18:28
Speaker 3: Chad certainly cannot handle another oh and three start to
18:31
Speaker 3: a week, and yeah, you're MVP. Jared goff Man took
18:36
Speaker 3: us right down the field and Gibbs too. Gibbs, what
18:39
Speaker 3: a great game by the kid. I mean, the second
18:41
Speaker 3: year player. You know, the port has disappeared. Gibbs is
18:43
Speaker 3: not in his second year, and that was a huge
18:47
Speaker 3: game by him, just because Montgomery had the injury. Then
18:50
Speaker 3: he has the fumble and it's like, we need this
18:52
Speaker 3: kid to have big plays for us, and he did.
18:54
Speaker 3: And you know, our fear was the Hutchinson thing would
18:58
Speaker 3: be a big deal. It wasn't. It wasn't right. They
19:01
Speaker 3: got pressure at times. I mean again, they're like you said,
19:04
Speaker 3: they're up twenty one ten at one point. But at
19:08
Speaker 3: the end of the game, that's when you really felt it,
19:11
Speaker 3: where it's like they're not getting to him and he
19:14
Speaker 3: is making completions right now. But we got kind of
19:17
Speaker 3: lucky too. That was a bad game overall by the
19:21
Speaker 3: Vikings offense, so their defense kind of was up to
19:24
Speaker 3: the task, and then it got away for them pretty
19:25
Speaker 3: quick once. Like we talked about, once the Lions get
19:28
Speaker 3: it going, you can't stop it. That's why I mean,
19:30
Speaker 3: you love betting them right now. It's like it's all
19:33
Speaker 3: clicking offensively. We didn't care they lost touchingson because offensively
19:37
Speaker 3: it's all there. And we both agreed this number should
19:40
Speaker 3: have been you know, Detroit minus one and a half
19:43
Speaker 3: minus two. The line was fishy, it was off. You know,
19:47
Speaker 3: the books took a stand. We disagreed with it, and
19:50
Speaker 3: that's that's nice when those ones come through, cause it's
19:52
Speaker 3: like I bet that one heavy. I know you bet
19:54
Speaker 3: it heavy, and it's like what am I not seeing here? Again?
19:58
Speaker 3: I still couldn't get over that number got to two
19:59
Speaker 3: and a half a day and a half. It was
20:01
Speaker 3: just a weird week where we all know the Vikings
20:05
Speaker 3: are pretty good, but they're not that good and even
20:08
Speaker 3: in this game they need a couple of weird bounces
20:10
Speaker 3: just to get it to be a close one. So
20:13
Speaker 3: once again, this Vikings team, the values gonna come back around.
20:16
Speaker 3: We're gonna betting on them again. But right now I
20:18
Speaker 3: still think they're probably still overvalued heading into this next
20:20
Speaker 3: week because that game was once again so close. They
20:23
Speaker 3: didn't get blown out, they kept it close once again,
20:25
Speaker 3: and it's gonna be interest see what their number is
20:27
Speaker 3: this upcoming week.
20:28
Speaker 1: Well, I was checking, and I'm glad I wanted to
20:30
Speaker 1: talk about that. I will be very interested they're playing Tennessee.
20:36
Speaker 2: The number is one of the biggest numbers we've.
20:38
Speaker 1: Seen all season, and I do want to talk about
20:41
Speaker 1: it when we get into that part of the show.
20:44
Speaker 1: I'm glad you bring up Hutchinson because like that was
20:49
Speaker 1: sort of the note that I wanted to end on
20:53
Speaker 1: when reviewing this game that I put in the script,
20:56
Speaker 1: because when we needed aidd Hutchinson to get pressure, the
21:03
Speaker 1: Vikings were able to sort of get down the field
21:06
Speaker 1: and get that field goal because the line just could
21:09
Speaker 1: not get the pressure like he had the time at
21:12
Speaker 1: the end of the game. It was not his best game,
21:14
Speaker 1: but he was able to make the throws he needed
21:16
Speaker 1: to make because no one was getting to him.
21:19
Speaker 2: So that is something to think about.
21:21
Speaker 1: It's why Jared Goff will probably win MVP when they
21:23
Speaker 1: go fifteen and or sixteen and one. However many games
21:26
Speaker 1: they play now, But that's something to think about, for sure. Yeah,
21:32
Speaker 1: for sure. Right now there is reporting that Kyle Shanahan
21:42
Speaker 1: is worried Brandon Ayuk has an aco injury. Fuck Kansas
21:48
Speaker 1: City plus two and a half at San Francisco. All
21:50
Speaker 1: week long, we had been debating are we going to
21:53
Speaker 1: put in Green Bay? Are we going to put in
21:55
Speaker 1: Kansas City? Are we going to put in Green Bay?
21:57
Speaker 1: Are we going to put in Kansas City? As much
21:59
Speaker 1: as you were adamant about the Giants, you were also
22:03
Speaker 1: adamant about Kansas City, which I like was just having
22:08
Speaker 1: a hard time wrapping my head around because I have
22:11
Speaker 1: such belief in the Niners and because I've been so
22:14
Speaker 1: worried about the lack of productivity from the Chiefs overall
22:18
Speaker 1: on offense.
22:20
Speaker 2: Dude, you were spot.
22:23
Speaker 1: On standing oh for you, standing, oh for Patrick Mahomes
22:29
Speaker 1: because it played exactly like you said it was going
22:33
Speaker 1: to And why we have to bet the Kansas City Chiefs.
22:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just can't believe you haven't learned your lesson.
22:39
Speaker 3: I thought forever you. I was humbled by that Ravens
22:42
Speaker 3: Chiefs game last year in the playoffs. I told you
22:44
Speaker 3: a million times there will never be a better team
22:48
Speaker 3: and a better spot that could beat Mahomes with less talent,
22:53
Speaker 3: Like that was such a bad Mahomes team playing against
22:56
Speaker 3: the best, one of the best Raven teams I've ever
22:58
Speaker 3: had on paper, and it was a lesson. It was
23:01
Speaker 3: just like when he is a dog, you trust the
23:04
Speaker 3: number and then we mixed in that whole thing about
23:07
Speaker 3: and you read off the bye week. I know it
23:08
Speaker 3: sounds corny, but it's like the guy is automatic after
23:13
Speaker 3: the bye week, especially as a dog. So this was
23:16
Speaker 3: going to be no matter what. This is like, this
23:18
Speaker 3: is like the Rams game. This is one of my
23:19
Speaker 3: biggest bets of the year. Hammered it all in, didn't
23:23
Speaker 3: care this morning. I think it went up to two
23:24
Speaker 3: and a half. Even better, Like when that's.
23:28
Speaker 1: A lie that you were a little nervous this morning.
23:31
Speaker 1: Like when it got up to two and a half,
23:32
Speaker 1: you're like, I'm all in on this.
23:35
Speaker 2: It's weird to me. There wasn't.
23:37
Speaker 1: I'm not saying there was any hesitation at all, but
23:40
Speaker 1: you did make a note that it was weird.
23:44
Speaker 3: I thought he was dumb enough to bet six figures
23:46
Speaker 3: against my Homes here it's like, you know, I know
23:49
Speaker 3: a couple of guys who came on the other side,
23:51
Speaker 3: and it's like you're the same suckers from the Super
23:53
Speaker 3: Bowl that just we all have the same models. That's
23:56
Speaker 3: why I keep saying to people, anyone that has a
23:58
Speaker 3: model would make the forty nine ers favorite in this spot.
24:01
Speaker 3: And I said it to you before the game. I
24:02
Speaker 3: know they have the bad left tackle. I know their
24:04
Speaker 3: number one receiver Rice is out. Like everyone knows Isaiah
24:08
Speaker 3: pa Checko's not playing everything. Everyone knows all the negatives
24:11
Speaker 3: with this Chiefs team. But I just kept saying, it
24:13
Speaker 3: doesn't matter. It's just such a mismatch in pedigree and
24:18
Speaker 3: coaching and those situations where it's like Spags and Reid
24:22
Speaker 3: after a bye week. I mean, you saw it, all
24:26
Speaker 3: those stupid wacky plays they run. I mean, how many
24:29
Speaker 3: dumb catches did their tight end or third receiver have,
24:31
Speaker 3: Like it just Reid is in his bag. It's incredible watching.
24:35
Speaker 3: And we got the Mahomes fluke right, the Mahomes running
24:38
Speaker 3: up the sideline, Mahomes picking up the third down so easily.
24:43
Speaker 3: A game where I was terrified when I was fourteen twelve,
24:46
Speaker 3: because again I had a lot of money on it.
24:47
Speaker 3: It's like you felt the snowball right with the forty
24:50
Speaker 3: nine ers. Everything was going their way. But Purdy, I
24:54
Speaker 3: mean one of the worst games I've ever seen him had.
24:55
Speaker 3: I mean this and that Ravens game, Like, yeah, you know,
24:58
Speaker 3: two big games at home, and he kind of has melted,
25:01
Speaker 3: like buttering both those games. Like I think you had
25:03
Speaker 3: three picks in that Ravens game as well. He was
25:05
Speaker 3: terrible today. So yeah, that's it's nice when it comes through.
25:09
Speaker 3: But you know what makes me really happy, especially for
25:14
Speaker 3: the show where it's like, you know we've had a
25:15
Speaker 3: grind this year, is when we give out that boost
25:18
Speaker 3: and you know our fans, you know, the week before
25:22
Speaker 3: we're giving them Carolina Panthers money line with the Jets
25:25
Speaker 3: money line. It's nice in a week we can give
25:27
Speaker 3: them the Lines money line and the Chiefs money line.
25:29
Speaker 3: It's like, we're not always assholes people. We're not always
25:32
Speaker 3: going to make you bet the worst teams and make
25:34
Speaker 3: you hit your life. We are going to give you
25:36
Speaker 3: a little bit of chalk. So yeah, it's a nice hit.
25:38
Speaker 3: And you came around on it, like I saw in
25:40
Speaker 3: the app you bet the Chiefs. Yeah, before kickoffs, So
25:43
Speaker 3: it's like I knew i'd break you eventually. It's just
25:45
Speaker 3: the the trends were overwhelming, and then the matchup when
25:48
Speaker 3: you really thought about it, it's just like, this is
25:51
Speaker 3: a nice, nice play to this Chiefs team, But I
25:54
Speaker 3: can't wait for next week because this is a cell
25:56
Speaker 3: high as we can get on this Chiefs team.
25:58
Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna get that opportunity. And I wrote that.
26:02
Speaker 1: I wrote that line down to talk about I want
26:04
Speaker 1: to give three examples that when Patrick Mahomes made these plays,
26:11
Speaker 1: I thought to myself, I had your voice in my head.
26:15
Speaker 1: This is why we bet Patrick Mahomes. This is making
26:18
Speaker 1: your own luck. This is why things go his way.
26:21
Speaker 1: At the end of the game, nine minutes left in
26:23
Speaker 1: the first half, Kansas City up seven to three, just
26:26
Speaker 1: outside the red zone. It's a third and medium. He's
26:30
Speaker 1: pressured in the pocket, sidesteps the sack like does a
26:34
Speaker 1: backhanded flip to an open receiver for a first down.
26:37
Speaker 1: Three plays later, they go up fourteen to three, second
26:42
Speaker 1: and seven from the thirty seven. Towards the end of
26:45
Speaker 1: the third, he breaks contain runs for the first fakes
26:50
Speaker 1: a pass. He is far beyond the line of scrimmage,
26:52
Speaker 1: fakes it, the tackler is dumbfounded, he runs past him
26:58
Speaker 1: and then no one tackles him against third three yards.
27:00
Speaker 2: That's going to be the play of the year.
27:03
Speaker 1: And that's why stupid media suckers are going to vote
27:06
Speaker 1: for him for MVP instead of Jared Goff because of
27:08
Speaker 1: that stupid play. And then here's why we hate betting
27:12
Speaker 1: against Mahomes. It's third and eight with just under five.
27:15
Speaker 1: They're bleeding the clock. He steps up to avoid the sack.
27:19
Speaker 1: He has guys hanging on his waist, makes a perfect
27:23
Speaker 1: nine yard pass to convert the first down. Kevin Burkhart,
27:27
Speaker 1: who was announcing the game, it says out loud, you
27:30
Speaker 1: just have to laugh because there's there's nothing you can
27:33
Speaker 1: do about it. And I'm with you, I am converted.
27:37
Speaker 1: That is why you have to do it the.
27:39
Speaker 3: Rest of your life though. That's what I'm saying, like
27:41
Speaker 3: you need to just anytime he's a dog, even if
27:44
Speaker 3: we fucking hate the spot, we just have to say
27:47
Speaker 3: to ourselves long term until proven otherwise, like if he
27:50
Speaker 3: loses four straight, that's what it would take to get
27:53
Speaker 3: me off betting Mahomes as an underdog because it's so
27:55
Speaker 3: rare and every time he does it, even today, right,
27:58
Speaker 3: it was eighty percent of the tickets or something like that,
28:00
Speaker 3: Evan told us. Unconvinced me didn't matter, like it don't matter.
28:05
Speaker 3: The public note the secret's out. So yeah, that that
28:08
Speaker 3: was fun. And like I said, it's a game we
28:11
Speaker 3: desperately needed. We needed to be two and two here
28:14
Speaker 3: tonight on the show. So thank god it came through.
28:17
Speaker 1: Public against the spread in the past two weeks so
28:19
Speaker 1: far nineteen five and one.
28:23
Speaker 3: Fuck crazy, we're surviving this right now. We should be
28:26
Speaker 3: getting zero for five to one for four weeks.
28:29
Speaker 1: We should but like I don't want to, like I
28:32
Speaker 1: honestly like I don't want to praise ourselves. We don't
28:36
Speaker 1: deserve it in any way. But I will say, like,
28:40
Speaker 1: we do think a lot about this, and we don't
28:43
Speaker 1: just blindly make the bets, like we look for the
28:47
Speaker 1: spots and we know chalk can win. You've said chalk
28:51
Speaker 1: can win. Like we're we're trying to be flexible and
28:55
Speaker 1: adapt We're not just trying to be people who do
28:57
Speaker 1: the same thing over and over because the trends say it,
28:59
Speaker 1: like that's what we talk about every week. You don't
29:02
Speaker 1: just bet the trend. We love the numbers that Evan
29:05
Speaker 1: gives us, but they have to be part of an
29:08
Speaker 1: overall philosophy in which you're paying attention to the situation.
29:12
Speaker 1: You're paying attention to the matchups on the field, you're
29:14
Speaker 1: paying attention to what you're seeing with your eyes, and
29:17
Speaker 1: then the trends helped to sort of inform that they do.
29:21
Speaker 3: I view it as like we talk any more in
29:23
Speaker 3: my whole job. I viewed as just trying to get
29:25
Speaker 3: you not to step in a bunch of shit, and like,
29:28
Speaker 3: that's that's hard because I have to try to I
29:30
Speaker 3: need someone out there to get me now the step
29:31
Speaker 3: of my own shit, like the Giants. But like that
29:34
Speaker 3: green Bay number, it stanked to me all week. I
29:37
Speaker 3: hate it all week, and I'm like, the minute that
29:39
Speaker 3: game kicked off, I was like, thank fucking god, we
29:41
Speaker 3: don't have this green Bay minus two and a half.
29:44
Speaker 3: Like you just knew it was gonna either land on
29:46
Speaker 3: the two or somehow Houston was gonna win. And of
29:48
Speaker 3: course they landed either on one or two. And Sam
29:53
Speaker 3: goes for us, dodging that Tennessee bullet because it's like
29:56
Speaker 3: everything you said is true, right, that's a huge number
29:59
Speaker 3: for that Bills team, and you know you're getting Mason
30:01
Speaker 3: Rudolph at a will Levis price. Apparently they're both will Levis.
30:06
Speaker 3: Don't matter if you switch the name on the back
30:08
Speaker 3: of the jersey, They're just both equally terrible. So it
30:12
Speaker 3: was a week where I feel fortunate to be tune
30:14
Speaker 3: and two because there was just a lot of games
30:16
Speaker 3: that were tempting and we luckily stayed away from them.
30:19
Speaker 3: The only big miss for us is what I think
30:21
Speaker 3: you agree on is just the Seahawks. We both liked
30:23
Speaker 3: it three and a half. Yeah, I gave out the
30:25
Speaker 3: money line. It was just a nice spot and a
30:28
Speaker 3: nice team. I like, you know, my fear with that
30:31
Speaker 3: one was just not that their defense is horrible, but
30:36
Speaker 3: I just have a lot of questions about the Seahawks
30:38
Speaker 3: defense coming to this game, and they stepped up right.
30:40
Speaker 3: They played really well. So yeah, kudos to the Seahawks
30:44
Speaker 3: and anyone that took him a three and a half.
30:45
Speaker 3: That was a really nice number. It was never a
30:47
Speaker 3: sweat stuck.
30:48
Speaker 1: You had him in the Sunday six pack for the
30:50
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast, and I agree. I wish we had
30:52
Speaker 1: talked about it this morning for even a second, like
30:56
Speaker 1: we were both just mean.
30:57
Speaker 3: You mentioned it and I was like, I like it,
30:58
Speaker 3: but I liked unfortunately, like the fucking Giants words sucks.
31:02
Speaker 1: You know, It's like it was the like the Falcons
31:04
Speaker 1: have been so lucky this year they were due against
31:06
Speaker 1: a good team to regress a little bit. Speaking of
31:10
Speaker 1: the public, you know, we like the Jets.
31:13
Speaker 2: We talked about it all week.
31:15
Speaker 1: They are definitely the public side, although they also the
31:18
Speaker 1: sharp side. Uh, tomorrow night we have Tampa Bay. We're
31:23
Speaker 1: two and two right now on the contest. Tampa Bay
31:25
Speaker 1: is not the public side at all. In fact, like
31:30
Speaker 1: this number is going up, there are some places where
31:32
Speaker 1: it's for it's been sitting at three and a half
31:34
Speaker 1: a week. I will say it makes me a little
31:37
Speaker 1: nervous right now because Mike Evans we expect him to play.
31:44
Speaker 1: I saw in the latest injury report Vitevea is now questionable.
31:48
Speaker 1: One of the main reasons we liked that game was
31:50
Speaker 1: him able to control the line of scrimmage.
31:53
Speaker 3: So, I mean, if we really wanted to, we could
31:55
Speaker 3: switch it out technically for Arizona Vida Vey's out, but
31:58
Speaker 3: I don't know. I already can sell see us hating
32:00
Speaker 3: ourselves for making that change.
32:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna be UPSETI their way because either we're
32:06
Speaker 1: going to keep it and lose, or we change it
32:08
Speaker 1: out and they win. Yeah, there's no way, there's no way.
32:12
Speaker 1: If we change it out, the Bucks don't cover. It's like, yeah,
32:16
Speaker 1: we might as well put the mortgage on the Bucks
32:17
Speaker 1: covering if we decide to change it out. We need
32:20
Speaker 1: to look ahead to week eight. Couple of really interesting lines.
32:25
Speaker 1: First one up, let's talk about Kansas City ten point
32:30
Speaker 1: favorites right now on the road at Las Vegas raiders.
32:37
Speaker 1: What are we gonna do here? We got a we
32:40
Speaker 1: got we gotta buck the trend of road favorites. We
32:43
Speaker 1: gotta buck the trend of road teams covering. We gotta
32:47
Speaker 1: get ourselves to sack.
32:48
Speaker 3: Up divisional road favorites.
32:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, all of it. It sucks a double digit favorite.
32:56
Speaker 3: No, it's it's the brutal We have no choice. That's
32:58
Speaker 3: what like again is tough about the show where it's like,
33:02
Speaker 3: this is how we win long term. We have to
33:04
Speaker 3: stick to it. We'd be fools not to take it.
33:06
Speaker 3: It's an insane number. And you know again, shoot on
33:10
Speaker 3: Minshew all you want people he was in the game
33:13
Speaker 3: again at the end of the game. This this this game,
33:15
Speaker 3: like they almost upset the Rams, and it's just, yeah,
33:18
Speaker 3: he has one play where you are like, this is
33:20
Speaker 3: the worst quarterback in the league, and then you'll have
33:22
Speaker 3: a couple of throws where it's like, Okay, this is
33:23
Speaker 3: why he's a stable backup. So it's another spot where
33:28
Speaker 3: if it's the if it's Minshew in the ten, I
33:31
Speaker 3: take it. If it's an O'Connell, I don't, but he
33:36
Speaker 3: might have broken his thumb, so it's unlikely it's going
33:38
Speaker 3: to be him. So you know, we love the Raiders
33:41
Speaker 3: matchup historically against the Chiefs that you just always play
33:44
Speaker 3: them tough and it's disgusting. But this is going to
33:48
Speaker 3: be around money, money line round, Robin, I can tell
33:50
Speaker 3: you that much. Like it's just long term. I'm sure
33:53
Speaker 3: Evan will have some stats for us come Tuesday, you know,
33:56
Speaker 3: in his breakdown. But in my lifetime, there's only one
33:59
Speaker 3: team in this division that beats Mahomes and it's the Raiders.
34:03
Speaker 3: And I think it's might have happened three times, but
34:05
Speaker 3: each of those times I've gotten like a plus three
34:07
Speaker 3: hundred plus four hundred on the Raiders money line. So yeah,
34:11
Speaker 3: this is a gross number, but like you just said,
34:14
Speaker 3: I'm taking it now. It can only it only goes down, right,
34:17
Speaker 3: There's no way this goes higher. Just the way the
34:19
Speaker 3: books have been this year, it's tough to see this
34:21
Speaker 3: getting up to eleven or twelve.
34:25
Speaker 1: The other game we got to talk about at least
34:28
Speaker 1: for a second. You just mentioned Detroit twelve and a
34:31
Speaker 1: half point favorite at home against Tennessee.
34:35
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a shocking to say that's still too
34:37
Speaker 3: low to me. Really, Yeah, the way that Lion's offense
34:41
Speaker 3: is playing, get us the thirteen fourteen, that's where this
34:44
Speaker 3: should be. The Titans are fucking horrible. They were up
34:47
Speaker 3: ten to nothing on the bill, Yeah, yeah, and then
34:50
Speaker 3: just got rolled. And you know that's that's the hard part,
34:56
Speaker 3: chat is we're trying to bet on teams that we
34:58
Speaker 3: don't think quit. Like there's a couple of games you
35:01
Speaker 3: see see guys making them like that that Giants Eagles game.
35:04
Speaker 3: A couple of Giants players made business decisions like they
35:06
Speaker 3: could have made hits on guys and they pull up
35:08
Speaker 3: or they don't make the tackle. Where it's like that's
35:11
Speaker 3: something I'm always in the lookout for because that just
35:13
Speaker 3: shows the view of the team right now. And the
35:17
Speaker 3: Titans made a lot of business decision against that Bills team.
35:19
Speaker 3: So yeah, I would, honestly, wait, I think that one
35:22
Speaker 3: keeps going up and just detroitsa juggernaut right now in Tennessee.
35:25
Speaker 3: You know, they're like the Patriots of they're one of
35:27
Speaker 3: the worst teams in football.
35:28
Speaker 1: Raybon, it's being reported that Chris Raybon just put Cowboys
35:34
Speaker 1: plus six and a half into the app. They're at
35:37
Speaker 1: the Niners. That number I'm seeing in the app is
35:41
Speaker 1: down to five and a half. I don't know if
35:42
Speaker 1: you have a strong opinion here.
35:44
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it's six and a half. It's it's
35:47
Speaker 3: it's a great number. But I'm with you, I don't.
35:50
Speaker 3: I don't know where that number exists. I'm trying to
35:54
Speaker 3: see and if any books have it still now. I
35:57
Speaker 3: think he might have got the Early Line movie, because
35:59
Speaker 3: I'm seeing almost every book now, You're right, is down
36:00
Speaker 3: to five and a.
36:01
Speaker 2: Half, five and a half.
36:02
Speaker 3: It's a key number, like that's six. Six is a
36:04
Speaker 3: big deal.
36:05
Speaker 1: A couple other that are interesting to me real quickly,
36:07
Speaker 1: I want to run through before we get to yours.
36:09
Speaker 2: Sure, the Bears.
36:10
Speaker 1: Are one and a half point underdogs at the Commanders
36:13
Speaker 1: right now, coming off a bye. It's weird to me
36:17
Speaker 1: they're still dogs, not knowing the Jade and Daniels situation.
36:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I one of my first bets it was actually two,
36:24
Speaker 3: so it is moving a little bit that it's down
36:26
Speaker 3: to one and a half. I just I can see
36:28
Speaker 3: that easily flipping right. Yeah to making the Bears a favorite,
36:32
Speaker 3: which is a little scary having him on the road
36:35
Speaker 3: is a favorite. But that, you know, whatever you want
36:40
Speaker 3: to say about that win today against Carolina. They're a
36:45
Speaker 3: good team, but it's like Mariota at one point had
36:48
Speaker 3: like three yards passing, They're up twenty nothing right Like
36:51
Speaker 3: that was just what can we really take away from
36:53
Speaker 3: that game and from Mariota. My view of Mariota is
36:57
Speaker 3: he's a bad quarterback and your guys are looking for
37:00
Speaker 3: Your guys defense is really good, like the Bears as
37:03
Speaker 3: good as you know Williams is playing, the offense has
37:05
Speaker 3: been playing. I still think the biggest mainstead of that
37:09
Speaker 3: team right now the Bears is your guys defense. So
37:12
Speaker 3: I'm with you on that one. I'd grabbed that now
37:13
Speaker 3: plus one and a half you.
37:15
Speaker 1: Know what's interesting to me, Mariota. When he came in,
37:18
Speaker 1: they showed his career stats. I was shocked that he
37:22
Speaker 1: had twenty or thirty more touchdown passes in his career.
37:27
Speaker 1: Then he has interceptions like I've always thought.
37:30
Speaker 2: He was so bad that.
37:33
Speaker 1: Oh wow, the Bears commanders is now I think off
37:38
Speaker 1: the board because I'm not Oh, I'm not getting it
37:41
Speaker 1: anywhere right now. And I wonder if that's because of
37:45
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels.
37:47
Speaker 3: Has to be because that Nuver didn't sound right anyway.
37:51
Speaker 3: I just don't. I can't see them being a favorite
37:53
Speaker 3: against this Bears team coming off of bye week.
37:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was trying to make the bet as you
37:57
Speaker 1: were talking, and it's off the board.
38:02
Speaker 2: Seattle plus three at home against Buffalo.
38:10
Speaker 3: I don't know what to do with this number.
38:12
Speaker 2: What are you talking about it?
38:13
Speaker 1: I'm pinpointing numbers that like look a little bit interesting
38:17
Speaker 1: to me. I don't think Buffalo is should be a
38:21
Speaker 1: three point favorite on the road against Seattle yet.
38:23
Speaker 3: Me either. But at the same time, it makes sense
38:25
Speaker 3: because it's Josh Allen Verstino Smith, right.
38:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Gino Smith is still a very accurate passer
38:30
Speaker 1: who's going against a defense that has holes in the middle.
38:35
Speaker 3: I agree, So you know, I'll take the plus three
38:39
Speaker 3: on Seattle. But this is easily a position I could
38:42
Speaker 3: maybe change come Tuesday or Thursday, Like if this is
38:45
Speaker 3: down to two minus two and a half with the Bills,
38:48
Speaker 3: I could be tempted here, But you're right, right now,
38:51
Speaker 3: the right number to take is Seattle plus three, Like
38:53
Speaker 3: that's that's a good number and an inflated number with
38:57
Speaker 3: what you just said. This again, my hesitation here is
39:02
Speaker 3: the Seattle defense. Chat. They've just been so bad against
39:05
Speaker 3: comparable offenses, and I know they stepped up today, but
39:09
Speaker 3: I felt like a lot of that was self inflicted
39:11
Speaker 3: wounds by the Atlanta team. And you're right though, like
39:14
Speaker 3: this is a nice cell high spot right on this
39:17
Speaker 3: Bills team, such a huge win. We've seen them struggle
39:21
Speaker 3: as well against comparable offenses. So this is tough, but
39:25
Speaker 3: I'll take the plus three with you right now. This
39:27
Speaker 3: is easily a game I could flip on.
39:30
Speaker 2: I did find while you were talking.
39:32
Speaker 1: I did find the Bears plus one and a half
39:34
Speaker 1: at one book still available. It was down at the
39:38
Speaker 1: two other books here in Connecticut, last one and this
39:42
Speaker 1: line is already moving Cincinnati minus two versus Philly at home.
39:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, another game where it's two teams I just don't
39:55
Speaker 3: trust right now. Offensively, I'll probably end up on just
39:58
Speaker 3: taking the under. But I would say you're if you're thinking,
40:02
Speaker 3: here're the smart side is Cincinnati. So that's fair, Like,
40:07
Speaker 3: that's probably a good number against this Eagles team that
40:10
Speaker 3: you know, they're just they're not as good as their
40:12
Speaker 3: record states right now. That is an interesting number though,
40:16
Speaker 3: just hang in the two like they're literally just letting
40:19
Speaker 3: us dictate where they're going to move this number.
40:22
Speaker 2: That's that's what surprised me.
40:24
Speaker 3: And so you don't see many two So I'll tell
40:26
Speaker 3: you that much. You don't see many. You don't see
40:28
Speaker 3: a lot of twos on Sunday night.
40:30
Speaker 2: No, all right, So.
40:35
Speaker 3: You want to get a game that immediately jumps out
40:37
Speaker 3: to me, Colts plus six and a half against Houston,
40:42
Speaker 3: Like again, I'm going to rush to bed it because
40:44
Speaker 3: I do think it'll go up because Anthony Rusians not
40:46
Speaker 3: played well. You know, people just think that Colts team
40:50
Speaker 3: a little fraud in Houston played really well, probably should
40:53
Speaker 3: have won that game. I just I don't know, there's
40:56
Speaker 3: something about c J when he's a big favorite like this,
40:58
Speaker 3: I always kind of want to take the other like
41:00
Speaker 3: he just has teams play it close, and they kind
41:03
Speaker 3: of keep teams in these games. So that's the number
41:06
Speaker 3: that jumped out to me. It's like, I'll be patient.
41:09
Speaker 3: I'll grab it now just because it's six and a half,
41:10
Speaker 3: but I won't put a lot on it because it's
41:12
Speaker 3: like this only goes up right teasers, parlays. Everything's gonna
41:15
Speaker 3: coming on this Houston team. Yeah, I'm hoping I get
41:18
Speaker 3: up to a seven. I'm taking it just in case
41:24
Speaker 3: I'm missing something here. But you can get the Packers
41:26
Speaker 3: minus five right now against the Jaguars.
41:30
Speaker 2: That's weird.
41:31
Speaker 3: In what world? The Jaguars are horrible? I don't care.
41:35
Speaker 3: I mean, okay, they just blew out a team in England.
41:38
Speaker 3: I know Evan's gonna have the stats too about these
41:40
Speaker 3: teams not that don't take a bye week and they
41:41
Speaker 3: just come back from anything play the following week in
41:44
Speaker 3: the one PM games.
41:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, that number four and a half.
41:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, so like that's I told you, I'll take some
41:53
Speaker 3: chalk every now and then. That's a nice chalk spot.
41:55
Speaker 3: It feels like this is the week.
41:57
Speaker 2: Why would that number go down.
42:00
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, there could be a bunch of different
42:02
Speaker 3: reasons where maybe people think they saw some of the
42:04
Speaker 3: Jaguars today like winning that game, But I'm totally selling them.
42:10
Speaker 3: I just think they're such a bad, poorly coach team
42:12
Speaker 3: right now. I can't see it. So I'll definitely grab
42:15
Speaker 3: the minus four and a half.
42:17
Speaker 2: Cut anyone else.
42:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the last one that really jumped out
42:23
Speaker 3: to me there, just of like, Okay, is this a
42:26
Speaker 3: line that you know I'm missing something here. It's because
42:31
Speaker 3: they think because two is coming back, it's a huge
42:33
Speaker 3: boost from Miami. You can get Cardinals plus two and
42:36
Speaker 3: a half right now.
42:38
Speaker 2: I saw that, and to me, it's all about Tua.
42:40
Speaker 3: I know, I think there's been no guarantee he's going
42:44
Speaker 3: to be back, so it's like an easy number to
42:47
Speaker 3: take now if we need to, we can buy to
42:48
Speaker 3: have for a position later. But watching the Miami team today,
42:54
Speaker 3: they should have won that game in ten different ways
42:57
Speaker 3: and they just couldn't do it because they just have
42:58
Speaker 3: nothing to keep you position. I mean, I think Tyreek
43:01
Speaker 3: Hill had ten yards receiving. Like it's just all bad
43:05
Speaker 3: right now for that offense. Nothing's right and you know,
43:08
Speaker 3: even if two it comes back, I mean, how much
43:10
Speaker 3: will this number really move? It's coming off a major
43:13
Speaker 3: head injury in his first start. The craziest, the highest
43:17
Speaker 3: I can see this guy is minus three. So yeah,
43:19
Speaker 3: from early bet I ticked the two and a half.
43:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, right now.
43:23
Speaker 1: The Dolphins, they went through Tyler Huntley, they ended with Tim.
43:27
Speaker 3: Boyle, ended with Tim Boyle. Yeah, which was that might
43:30
Speaker 3: be the quarterback?
43:32
Speaker 2: That's that's no good. No, that's no good.
43:35
Speaker 1: All right, we've run through the games. We're going to
43:39
Speaker 1: go deeper on Tuesday. Obviously we're rooting hard for the Jets.
43:44
Speaker 3: No, we didn't even talk Vikings minus three versus the Rams.
43:47
Speaker 3: There's a lot of really fun games this will coming
43:49
Speaker 3: week that we'd even touch.
43:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, rooting hard for the Jets tonight, rooting hard, hard,
43:56
Speaker 1: hard for the Bucks tomorrow.
43:58
Speaker 2: We'd like to feel good on Tuesday.
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