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Italy’s Credit Rebound: What the Fitch Upgrade Means for Investor Migrants · IMI Podcasts

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Portugal plans to increase the municipal property transfer tax, also known as IMT, on non-resident home buyers in a bid to cool overseas demand and improve affordability for locals, Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said after a cabinet meeting in Lisbon last week.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: The move aims to slow demand from foreign purchasers amid a broader housing package that includes accelerating the issuance of building permits, boosting construction, expanding affordable rental options, and offering tax breaks for young buyers.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Portugal charges IMT once at the time of purchase, when buyers acquire urban or rural property, land, or certain property rights for consideration.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Officials have not released rates or brackets, but experts predict a premium on non-resident purchases that is significantly lower than Spain's proposed 100% surcharge for non-EU buyers.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: The current IMT rate in Portugal is capped at 8% for residents.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Based on government signaling, Ana Figueras, head of new business development at Insula Capital, expects a cautious design, saying that authorities want to temper demand without undermining Portugal's investor-friendly reputation or international capital flows.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: As such, she expects any extra tax to remain moderate and below Spain's proposed levels.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Timing is also uncertain.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Figueras expects no concrete measures before early next year, citing legislative steps and consultations that could face parliamentary resistance and cause delays.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: She remains skeptical that the tax will materially ease the housing crunch, pointing to international buyers who account for only 5% of transactions in the past year.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: She argues that even a slowdown at the margin will do little without addressing supply bottlenecks, including slow licensing, high overall taxation, and insufficient public investment in affordable and social housing.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Over the past decade, Portugal has recorded the lowest housing construction rate in Europe, exacerbating the shortage.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Quote, without addressing these fundamentals, new taxes on international buyers will provide minimal relief, end quote, she predicts.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: The policy aims to address a housing market stretched by rising prices and strong foreign interest.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Since 2015, Portuguese home prices have soared 124%, far outpacing the EU's average rise of 53% during the same period.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: Non-EU buyers paid an average of 451,000 euros per purchase in the first quarter of this year, nearly double that of domestic buyers, who averaged€225,000, according to the National Statistics Institute.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: EU buyers averaged€310,000.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Portugal's appeal, climate costs, tax incentives, safety, and prior residency routes continue to draw overseas capital, even after the end of real estate golden visas in 2023.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Henry and Partners Projects Portugal could attract over 1,400 millionaires in 2025, alongside surges in Italy and Greece?
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Experts warn of investor jitters and a potential relocation of capital to Spain, Italy, or Greece if taxes rise sharply, especially amid prolonged residency processing times and discussions about lengthening citizenship timelines.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: If the surcharge targets non-residents rather than non-citizens, many movers could sidestep it by establishing residency before buying.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: Still, Figueras predicts that Portugal's core strengths, including its quality of life, safety, political stability, and relative affordability compared to other Western European capitals, will continue to support demand.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: If the government opts for a tempered surcharge, she expects investors to adapt and price it into deals, with motivated buyers remaining active.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Only a worst-case Spain-style levy would risk a sharp pullback in foreign investment.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: A scenario Figueras says is unlikely.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: This episode first appeared as an article by Mustafa Daily on imidaly.com.
• 4:14
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• 4:21
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