Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold Selloff Is the Trap - Craig Hemke #6382

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Gold Selloff Is the Trap - Craig Hemke #6382 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: You're listening to Carrie.
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0:27
Speaker 1: Oh, we're on there and there's fourteen people on and
0:30
Speaker 1: we've been shooting the breeze here. I'm here with Craig
0:33
Speaker 1: Hemkey and it's Financial Survival Network. And if I'm looking
0:38
Speaker 1: away from the screen, it's because I'm trying to make
0:41
Speaker 1: this stupid thing work. We did this on the fly.
0:44
Speaker 1: This was not planned out. You know how meticulously I
0:48
Speaker 1: plan these live streams. Richard? Then do you do anything
0:52
Speaker 1: Richard's on here now with us? He says, turdster. And
0:56
Speaker 1: Richard goes on every single live stream that I do
1:00
Speaker 1: on Substack, And I'm just wondering, Richard, do you have
1:03
Speaker 1: a life, like you have anything going on that you
1:07
Speaker 1: need to be watching? Like every live stream I.
1:10
Speaker 3: Do here, it's a testament to the outstanding information you
1:15
Speaker 3: provide on a regular basis.
1:17
Speaker 1: Man. Hey, you know, as we last spoke Craig. I
1:21
Speaker 1: don't remember if I showed you this or not.
1:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, you're working on it.
1:25
Speaker 1: The Lawsuits Live book is live. It hasn't quite taken
1:30
Speaker 1: off yet, but it's about to. About fifteen big lawyer
1:36
Speaker 1: law firm lawyers hot on my trail. They have screwed
1:40
Speaker 1: this case up, Craig from the beginning. I mean, they
1:44
Speaker 1: think I'm just a crazy pro se But you know,
1:46
Speaker 1: like I practiced law for forty years. I won't say
1:50
Speaker 1: I'm the greatest federal practitioner ever. But when I combine
1:54
Speaker 1: that with AI and the fact that the whole parking
1:57
Speaker 1: industrial complex is completely corrupt and illegal, unconstitutional, like they're
2:05
Speaker 1: just starting to take me seriously. They've made three or
2:08
Speaker 1: four procedural mistakes, a couple of huge ones that I'm
2:13
Speaker 1: going to drop on our first status conference. I'm bringing
2:18
Speaker 1: in the League, the Florida League of Cities, because they're
2:23
Speaker 1: the lead lobbying arm and they're the ones that helped
2:27
Speaker 1: create the parking industrial complex in Florida. I sent preservation
2:32
Speaker 1: notices to the National League of Cities. I sent the
2:35
Speaker 1: evidence preservation notices to the Apple App Store and the
2:40
Speaker 1: Google App Store, and I think maybe they'll start taking
2:45
Speaker 1: it for real here. Hey, we're going to do some
2:49
Speaker 1: Q and A at the end. I know Richard always
2:51
Speaker 1: asks questions, all you other guys, would you believe We've
2:54
Speaker 1: got twenty five people on the line with us here,
2:57
Speaker 1: which is kind of cool because it adds like a
2:59
Speaker 1: lie dimension even though you can't see them. I'm the
3:03
Speaker 1: only one who can see the chat taking place. But
3:07
Speaker 1: all right, we should get started here. I haven't talked
3:11
Speaker 1: to you since silver hit one twenty one and promptly
3:14
Speaker 1: drop back to sixty four bucks now today. The last
3:20
Speaker 1: I looked, we were up like almost four dollars, and
3:23
Speaker 1: I think let's take a look. Even though I know
3:26
Speaker 1: you don't like kit go, we're at nearly seventy four
3:29
Speaker 1: dollars according to kit goo if you could believe them
3:33
Speaker 1: and Craig, simple question, what the heck is going on here?
3:39
Speaker 3: Simple question?
3:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say the easy ones for you. Man.
3:45
Speaker 3: You know, things look great four weeks ago. Can we
3:50
Speaker 3: start there?
3:52
Speaker 1: I might been there, but unfortunately we're here.
3:56
Speaker 3: The Friday February twenty seventh, and I went into that weekend.
4:01
Speaker 3: I was feeling good, right, silvery come all the way
4:05
Speaker 3: back up and gold was back near its all time highs,
4:09
Speaker 3: and the GDX finished the month at an all time high.
4:14
Speaker 3: And then I woke up Saturday morning to find out
4:16
Speaker 3: that the bombs are falling, and we all know what's happened,
4:19
Speaker 3: since we can't change that obviously, and there are a
4:25
Speaker 3: number of things that have exacerbated the problem in the
4:28
Speaker 3: metals and the shares, and it could still get worse.
4:33
Speaker 3: I mean in the short term. Yeah, if you think
4:38
Speaker 3: about the last four weeks, the yield curve has shifted
4:41
Speaker 3: up by fifty or sixty basis points at least as
4:44
Speaker 3: of Friday.
4:45
Speaker 1: Last Friday, I wrote an article about that. I said,
4:48
Speaker 1: the one big surprise coming with the war and everything
4:52
Speaker 1: else and the private credit crack up is that interest
4:57
Speaker 1: rates are going higher, and nobody sees it.
5:01
Speaker 3: Well, Carrie, I would take issue with that because I
5:03
Speaker 3: think the interestrations are going a lower because the Fed
5:07
Speaker 3: has no other playbook. People that the analysis that kind
5:11
Speaker 3: of peaked class Friday was that rates would go higher
5:14
Speaker 3: because the Fed is going to fight inflation and that
5:18
Speaker 3: there are no buyers for treasuries and all that kind
5:20
Speaker 3: of stuff. Well, anytime we run in a situation like that,
5:22
Speaker 3: the FED has shown that inflation is pretty low priority.
5:26
Speaker 3: They're more worried about growth instead, the maximum employment part
5:30
Speaker 3: of their dual mandate, and that will be what wins
5:34
Speaker 3: out again. What is now a supply shock will become
5:37
Speaker 3: a demand shock, just like they'd had to deal with
5:40
Speaker 3: in the past, and they will print, print, print and
5:42
Speaker 3: QWI and monetize and yield curve control and all the
5:46
Speaker 3: stuff we've talked about the last time we spoke in
5:50
Speaker 3: January is still in place. So I think the market,
5:55
Speaker 3: like I said, gold could still go down, the old
5:57
Speaker 3: curve could shift up again, a dollar could rally, some
6:00
Speaker 3: turkey might dumb another fifty metric tons in London. But
6:04
Speaker 3: in the end, I think I know how this is
6:07
Speaker 3: going to play out, and it's going to be another
6:09
Speaker 3: steep dollar devaluation as they try to manage the ongoing
6:13
Speaker 3: debt crisis, and as the dollar devalues gold values and
6:21
Speaker 3: the trend continues. This is just but in the short term,
6:24
Speaker 3: this is a mess, no doubt about it.
6:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think what's happened. We've seen another liquidity
6:31
Speaker 1: bust with the private credit market, and this time though,
6:36
Speaker 1: because it's not people losing their houses or clos your
6:40
Speaker 1: notices going out. This is notices going out to middle
6:43
Speaker 1: size companies. We're basically seizing all your assets. It's easier
6:49
Speaker 1: to cover up because you can cover it up just
6:52
Speaker 1: by writing checks. And when it comes to writing checks,
6:56
Speaker 1: nobody writes better checks than the Federal Reserve, right right, right.
7:00
Speaker 3: Right, And so again, Carrie, that's why rates could go
7:04
Speaker 3: higher in the short term. And even if there's a
7:07
Speaker 3: you know, everybody decides to hate the US and treasuries
7:10
Speaker 3: get liquidated, or we get to where Japan has to
7:14
Speaker 3: liquidate treasuries so that they could get dollars and sell
7:17
Speaker 3: dollars to buy in and support their currency and all
7:20
Speaker 3: that kind of stuff. All those things are played. But
7:22
Speaker 3: I let's let's remember Jerry Powell's got about six weeks
7:27
Speaker 3: to go, and I don't know how soon Trump's going
7:30
Speaker 3: to get his own yes man in there, but they have.
7:33
Speaker 3: There's Trump and Bess and figured out in the early
7:37
Speaker 3: stages last year that austerity was.
7:40
Speaker 1: A no go.
7:41
Speaker 3: You know, Doze was going to cut two trillion dollars
7:43
Speaker 3: and well maybe one trillion dollars, Well maybe we can
7:46
Speaker 3: do five billion. They will only do it. They figured
7:49
Speaker 3: that out. So the only way you can control debt
7:51
Speaker 3: to GDP or debt service to GDP is to control
7:55
Speaker 3: the GDP component the denominator. And they're going to run
7:59
Speaker 3: it hot. Is that you like to say, they're gonna
8:02
Speaker 3: try to grow their way out of it, and that
8:05
Speaker 3: is still on the table.
8:07
Speaker 1: And so is that realistic? Though? Then is that connect.
8:12
Speaker 3: That's that's what they're going to try to do. Yeah,
8:15
Speaker 3: and so they're gonna, you know the I carry again.
8:21
Speaker 3: You interview lots of people, so you know it's not
8:23
Speaker 3: like I say, remember we talked about this, but.
8:27
Speaker 1: But you're a trader run Cutshawstor Institute. What's that You're
8:32
Speaker 1: a trader and one of the reasons why and and
8:35
Speaker 1: you have a track record, you know, you know what
8:39
Speaker 1: they say about opinions. But I won't get into that.
8:41
Speaker 3: Sure, but coming out of World War Two, when debt
8:45
Speaker 3: did GDP was high, the FED ran yield curve control
8:49
Speaker 3: and sharply negative real interest rates because you're basically paying
8:52
Speaker 3: off yesterday's debt with the cheaper dollars of tomorrow. It's
8:56
Speaker 3: been done before, and I just think that's where they're
8:58
Speaker 3: going again. I mean, we can't we're not. This is
9:00
Speaker 3: in nineteen eighty. It's not like Vulgar is going to
9:03
Speaker 3: ride in and jack rates to fifteen percent into it. No,
9:07
Speaker 3: and they're even at four to four and a half.
9:11
Speaker 3: I mean, we've got ten trillion, I think a twelve
9:14
Speaker 3: trillion in treasuries that have to be refunded and reissued
9:18
Speaker 3: before the end of the year, and you're gonna roll
9:21
Speaker 3: those babies over at four or five percent, six percent.
9:24
Speaker 1: I mean, it just the math descent.
9:26
Speaker 3: That's why, like I said, I this idea that high
9:32
Speaker 3: that the FED is going to look at their dual
9:35
Speaker 3: mandate and and put inflation as you know one A
9:41
Speaker 3: and maximum employment and growth as number two. They've never
9:47
Speaker 3: done that before. That's not how they roll. I mean,
9:50
Speaker 3: they even cut fifty basis points right before the election
9:54
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four when inflation was still four percent.
9:57
Speaker 3: So I I just don't think inflation that that's not
10:00
Speaker 3: their primacy, that's not their primary concern. They're worried about liquidity,
10:05
Speaker 3: keeping the plate spinning, the gears greased, in growth, keeping
10:10
Speaker 3: people employed, and so that's you know, we hit that
10:14
Speaker 3: point back on Friday where FED Fund's future started pricing
10:17
Speaker 3: at great hikes, and I was went, come on, look, this,
10:20
Speaker 3: let's get real, and and people kind of come around
10:23
Speaker 3: to that opinion in the last couple of trading days
10:25
Speaker 3: and that's what's helped brag gold and silver up off
10:28
Speaker 3: the mat.
10:30
Speaker 1: Hey. So you find Craig at TF Metals Report dot com.
10:36
Speaker 1: It's in the in the chat. Just put it in there, hey,
10:40
Speaker 1: So you know, I just find the whole thing like fascinating.
10:46
Speaker 1: I think we talked in April or May. We both
10:50
Speaker 1: agreed that that silver had broken through through its technical
10:56
Speaker 1: ceiling thirty two and a half bucks, if memory serves me.
11:00
Speaker 1: Correct out there, correct me if I'm wrong. But that's
11:02
Speaker 1: where we agreed, and I even wrote an article about it.
11:07
Speaker 1: So I nailed it thanks to you in large part.
11:11
Speaker 3: Oh you do great work.
11:13
Speaker 1: Hey, well I'm trying so. But the point is that
11:18
Speaker 1: even at seventy four bucks here, we're more We're we
11:22
Speaker 1: more than doubled or one hundred and thirty forty percent, right,
11:25
Speaker 1: And all the gurus out there pushing the latest AI
11:31
Speaker 1: stock or the latest crypto blah blah blah blah blah,
11:36
Speaker 1: nobody else is even close to.
11:38
Speaker 3: That, right, you know, And again it depends on like
11:44
Speaker 3: any anything else you know, if you want to go
11:46
Speaker 3: back to whatever date and start there, everybody can make
11:49
Speaker 3: a case that, you know, this is better, this has
11:52
Speaker 3: done better whatever I'm worried about now, right, where do
11:56
Speaker 3: we go from here? Because nobody can go back and
11:58
Speaker 3: adjust their books to say I bought or sold, you know,
12:01
Speaker 3: at some point in the past. So as we go
12:03
Speaker 3: forward from here, you've got people on one side of
12:07
Speaker 3: the equation saying, yeah, go silver's going back. I'm not
12:10
Speaker 3: buying it again until it goes back down to thirty five,
12:12
Speaker 3: you know, or some all which ray number okay, whatever
12:18
Speaker 3: you know, or silver's rally that's going to be dead
12:20
Speaker 3: again for another twenty years. Yeah, I mean, look, this
12:23
Speaker 3: is not twenty eleven, it's not nineteen eighty. The dynamics
12:27
Speaker 3: of the world economy, the dynamics of the physical supply
12:31
Speaker 3: versus demand of something like silver, or it's a totally
12:35
Speaker 3: different moment in time. Now, that doesn't mean it can't
12:38
Speaker 3: continue to go down. Coppers down all. You know, when
12:41
Speaker 3: the dollar goes up, the precious metals and the industrial
12:45
Speaker 3: metals and everything seemed to go down. I remember back
12:47
Speaker 3: in twenty fourteen, the dollar route, the dollar indext route,
12:50
Speaker 3: from eighty to one hundred in like nine months, went
12:52
Speaker 3: up twenty five percent. And I mean the commodities just
12:56
Speaker 3: got smoked, right. So if the allar keeps going up
13:01
Speaker 3: like I said, and if interest rates continue to rise
13:04
Speaker 3: in the short term, and if somebody likes like Turkey
13:07
Speaker 3: or somebody else shows up and proceeds to dump more
13:13
Speaker 3: physical metal, then we're still going to remain under pressure totally.
13:17
Speaker 3: If anything carry, If I could leave, you know, a
13:20
Speaker 3: point for everybody a short term, anything can happen. I mean,
13:24
Speaker 3: like I said, it looked freaking great in at the
13:29
Speaker 3: end of February, and I won't forgive myself. I was
13:32
Speaker 3: still frustrated with myself all through February. We could see
13:38
Speaker 3: this build up coming, We could see this war was coming.
13:41
Speaker 3: I kept warning people on my site. Look, they went
13:43
Speaker 3: after Maduro and Trump. You know, Rubio came out and
13:45
Speaker 3: said Trump is nefing around. You better be ready. So
13:48
Speaker 3: when they started moving all the men and material toward
13:50
Speaker 3: Iran and you're like, Okay, you can see what's coming,
13:52
Speaker 3: I thought foolishly that if that happens, that should be
13:57
Speaker 3: bullish for gold and help silver hang in there. I
13:59
Speaker 3: didn't think of how the market instead reacted the opposite direction,
14:05
Speaker 3: you know, and said, well, this is gonna be inflationary,
14:07
Speaker 3: and they dumped bonds and then ray started going up,
14:10
Speaker 3: and so they bought the dollar and you had stay
14:12
Speaker 3: pavement traded the dollar, and then you just and so
14:14
Speaker 3: that's just the computer started selling gold and then carry
14:16
Speaker 3: I to tell you something else that I didn't anticipate.
14:20
Speaker 3: We saw this. If you watch gold every day like
14:24
Speaker 3: I do, I picked it up. I pointed out everybody
14:27
Speaker 3: in my site two weeks ago. Beginning on the eighteenth
14:30
Speaker 3: of March, it was a Wednesday during London hours, for
14:36
Speaker 3: four consecutive days, gold would straighten the tank. Yeah, for
14:41
Speaker 3: a total of about nine hundred bucks. I saw it,
14:45
Speaker 3: and we're like, well, wait a second, this isn't cool.
14:47
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously somebody is dumping massive amounts of gold
14:51
Speaker 3: in London, and who would do that. If you're a sovereign,
14:55
Speaker 3: that's where you would go. You don't go to the
14:57
Speaker 3: com ex to sell. If you're selling, you know, looking
15:00
Speaker 3: for liquidity, swapping gold, selling gold or whatever, you go
15:03
Speaker 3: to London. Still, that's how it works. So when the
15:05
Speaker 3: gold price were getting smoked four days in a row,
15:07
Speaker 3: I was like, oh, this is not good. And that's
15:09
Speaker 3: how I mean. It was nine hundred dollars over the
15:12
Speaker 3: course of three hours a day for four days. So
15:15
Speaker 3: that's and I mean, that's why gold is still meant,
15:18
Speaker 3: gold's down nine hundred dollars this month. So we then
15:22
Speaker 3: found out last week somebody was able to connect the
15:25
Speaker 3: dots look at Turkey's gold reserves on a week by
15:28
Speaker 3: week basis. We found out Turkey was the one that
15:30
Speaker 3: dumped fifty eight tons of gold. So we had this
15:34
Speaker 3: kind of perfect storm, higher rates, higher dollar, physical dumping,
15:39
Speaker 3: gold falls. You know, it has the worst week in
15:42
Speaker 3: forty three years or whatever it was. Now that that
15:46
Speaker 3: could be low. We bounced off the two entitday moving average.
15:49
Speaker 3: You can come up all these technical things, but it
15:51
Speaker 3: could still get worse. You know, you ratchets up fifty
15:56
Speaker 3: bases points again in April, and the dollar goes to
15:59
Speaker 3: one hundred and five, Turkey or somebody else sells another
16:01
Speaker 3: fifty times. Hell we'll go to thirty five hundred. But yeah,
16:06
Speaker 3: long term, you know, getting past what might happen next month,
16:11
Speaker 3: before you know, the dust kind of settles on this
16:13
Speaker 3: war and everything. I think a year from now, even
16:17
Speaker 3: six months from now, you just buy the dep physical
16:23
Speaker 3: metal because all of this does this just exacerbates all
16:27
Speaker 3: the stuff that was driving gold and silver to those
16:30
Speaker 3: all time highs, you know as recently as January.
16:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, nothing has changed, but it seems like, yeah, there's
16:38
Speaker 1: some panic in the market. There's flow of funds coming
16:41
Speaker 1: over from Europe and Asia into the US, which is
16:44
Speaker 1: bumping up the dollar. It's not that they see the
16:47
Speaker 1: dollar as a safe haven, it's a less unsafe haven
16:52
Speaker 1: than where they are now. And then you combine that
16:55
Speaker 1: with the crack up in private credit, which is taking
17:00
Speaker 1: place very stealthily. Remember remember in eighth nine when the
17:05
Speaker 1: FED just cut the checks for sixteen trillion to bail
17:09
Speaker 1: out all the European banks, and that is the template
17:14
Speaker 1: for what's happening now. They're not letting Blackstone go under,
17:19
Speaker 1: They're not letting black Rock go under. They'll let a
17:22
Speaker 1: few of the smaller funds to go. They'll let them
17:25
Speaker 1: go under just to show that we believe in the
17:28
Speaker 1: market and we're not bailing out anybody. There's no guarantees,
17:32
Speaker 1: but there's a FED put out there and people are
17:37
Speaker 1: selling it and that's why the markets are doing what
17:39
Speaker 1: they're doing. But Craig still thirty two and a half
17:43
Speaker 1: bucks in in May and seventy three almost seventy four.
17:49
Speaker 1: Now forget about where it went and where it could go.
17:53
Speaker 1: It did a parabolic move. You know, even though this
17:57
Speaker 1: time is different, that the supply side is completely different
18:01
Speaker 1: to escalating industrial consumption, all these things. Even though they're different,
18:07
Speaker 1: the market isn't. And in addition, I think whoever has
18:13
Speaker 1: their finger on the switch learned that you might not
18:17
Speaker 1: be able to stop something from going higher, but you
18:20
Speaker 1: could go make it go higher to an unsustainable point
18:24
Speaker 1: and then crash it. And that's my perception of what happened.
18:29
Speaker 1: Get it up to one hundred and twenty, make it
18:32
Speaker 1: almost quadruple in the space of a few months, and
18:36
Speaker 1: then it gets technically overbooked, and then you slam it.
18:39
Speaker 1: And then we see what happens, right, you.
18:42
Speaker 3: Know, we see where we go from here? Yeah, I mean,
18:46
Speaker 3: we're right back to the level where we began the year,
18:48
Speaker 3: more or less, right, So we're just really crazy January,
18:53
Speaker 3: and then a rebound in February, and then wash it
18:55
Speaker 3: here in March, and now we are as we record
18:58
Speaker 3: this on the last day of the quarter, we're gonna
19:01
Speaker 3: end up golds up a little bit and silver is
19:06
Speaker 3: going to be about flat. It doesn't mean nothing happen, right, Well,
19:12
Speaker 3: and again it's like, well, okay, you know we finished months.
19:16
Speaker 3: Take back to New Year's Eve, Like you said, we've
19:19
Speaker 3: gone from thirty two to seventy. If I'd have said,
19:23
Speaker 3: and everybody who's freaking out, oh, definitely going back down.
19:26
Speaker 3: You know, it just blew out and all this kind
19:28
Speaker 3: of stuff, But I said, by the end of March
19:30
Speaker 3: we'd still be seventy five. We'd be like, okay, if
19:33
Speaker 3: you just like slept for ninety days, yeah, did when
19:40
Speaker 3: it all kind of when all the dust settles and
19:42
Speaker 3: we look at it all the different ways and the
19:45
Speaker 3: technical and the fundamental and everything else. The interesting thing
19:50
Speaker 3: about precious metals, specifically gold, is it's just simply a
19:53
Speaker 3: reflection of the evaluation of your fiat currency that you
19:58
Speaker 3: measure it in. Because the goal doesn't change the gold.
20:02
Speaker 3: It's not like you can hedonically adjust the way they
20:06
Speaker 3: do the CPI. It say, well, your computers more efficient,
20:08
Speaker 3: so even though it's more expensive, it's technically less expensive
20:11
Speaker 3: because it's more efficient. No, the gold doesn't the gold
20:13
Speaker 3: isn't more efficient. The gold is just the goal. An
20:16
Speaker 3: ounce of gold is an ounce of gold. It really is.
20:18
Speaker 3: As the Wall Street journals said, it's pet rock, pet metal.
20:22
Speaker 3: It collects dust. It doesn't pay a dividend, It just
20:25
Speaker 3: sits there. Well, what it does is it's a reflection
20:28
Speaker 3: of the devaluation of your fiat currency. It will led
20:30
Speaker 3: Ten years ago it took you eleven hundred US dollars
20:35
Speaker 3: to buy an ounce of gold that very same ounts.
20:39
Speaker 3: Five years ago it took you twenty two hundred dollars
20:42
Speaker 3: to buy, and now five years later it takes you
20:45
Speaker 3: forty four hundred to buy. It's not the gold has
20:49
Speaker 3: not changed at all. They hadn't even tarnished, right, What's
20:55
Speaker 3: changed is how many dollars it takes to buy it.
20:58
Speaker 1: And as long as.
20:59
Speaker 3: We're on that turn, adding two trillion dollars in debt
21:02
Speaker 3: a year and and spiraling of the interest payments and
21:08
Speaker 3: everything just getting worse and worse all the time, than
21:10
Speaker 3: that dollar is going to continue to value and buy.
21:12
Speaker 3: Five years from now, gold will probably be eighty eight
21:14
Speaker 3: hundred dollars, no doubt. And that's the path that's on.
21:19
Speaker 3: So I don't know buy the dip, you know, feel
21:23
Speaker 3: good about why you're buying it. You're taking your dollars
21:26
Speaker 3: out of your dollar reserves, and you're exchanging it for
21:28
Speaker 3: sound money. And understand what's driving it in the first place.
21:34
Speaker 3: All this other stuff. Yeah, it's crazy. Drive bats got
21:38
Speaker 3: to watch it every day. But fundamentally nothing has changed.
21:42
Speaker 1: It's just noise eight. So it I'm like, that's gonna say.
21:48
Speaker 1: So when you look back, So gold's purchasing power, sure,
21:52
Speaker 1: and gold is more stable of course than silver. But
21:55
Speaker 1: silver we're actually consuming silver. It's disappearing from the plan.
22:01
Speaker 1: And when you look back, I remember in nineteen sixty
22:06
Speaker 1: well I can remember, honestly, back to the right, before
22:10
Speaker 1: the first energy crisis, my father would buy gas at
22:16
Speaker 1: the pump in path Mark and get a free glass
22:20
Speaker 1: for twenty two nine for premium nineteen nine that's nineteen cents.
22:27
Speaker 3: Or regular, come out and clean off his wins.
22:30
Speaker 1: Yeld. He do it a lowsy job. He was a
22:33
Speaker 1: little bit better than a squeegy guy, but not much.
22:37
Speaker 1: And you know he But my point is like even
22:41
Speaker 1: in sixty five when they demonetized silver, all right, it
22:46
Speaker 1: took two dimes, two silver dimes, in nineteen sixty four
22:50
Speaker 1: to buy a gallon of gas, those two dimes now
22:54
Speaker 1: would buy like six gallons of gas even at the
22:57
Speaker 1: current prices, right, or maybe maybe four gallons. Maybe I'm
23:02
Speaker 1: off a little bit because I think gas is up
23:04
Speaker 1: to four bucks now. I just read so if silver
23:09
Speaker 1: is at seventy four, then probably a dime is worth
23:15
Speaker 1: six bucks. So I did. Look, I haven't checked the coinflation,
23:20
Speaker 1: but the point is the purchasing power of silver hasn't
23:24
Speaker 1: just kept up, it's increased because in like nineteen sixty
23:31
Speaker 1: silver sold for eighty to ninety cents an ounce, but
23:37
Speaker 1: at the same time a dollar is worth of silver
23:41
Speaker 1: was less than an ounce. So my point is the
23:45
Speaker 1: coins actually had a monetary premium that no longer exists.
23:51
Speaker 1: Now it's a metallic premium. That's how you determine the
23:55
Speaker 1: value of it. So it's even worse than what the
24:00
Speaker 1: chart says it is because it used to have a
24:04
Speaker 1: premium and now now the silver it goes for the
24:07
Speaker 1: value of the metal, not for the value of the face.
24:11
Speaker 1: That's clear.
24:13
Speaker 3: So a terrific point that I had not heard made before.
24:18
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's terrific. And like I said,
24:22
Speaker 3: the fundamental component is dynamic, to say the least. And
24:27
Speaker 3: you know, let me put it this way too. I'm
24:30
Speaker 3: no fan of the gold silver ratio, just mainly because
24:35
Speaker 3: I think at this point it's a reflection not of
24:37
Speaker 3: actual metal of it's a reflection how many derivatives and
24:40
Speaker 3: how much leverage there is.
24:41
Speaker 1: Totally totally right.
24:43
Speaker 3: But but but in this current pricing scheme, okay, where
24:50
Speaker 3: we use the derivatives to help discover the physical price
24:55
Speaker 3: I just told you about how you know gold was
24:58
Speaker 3: eleven ten years ago and twenty two hundred dollars five
25:01
Speaker 3: years ago and forty four hundred dollars now. Silver ten
25:06
Speaker 3: years ago was fifteen Okay, what's that ratio? Eighty seventy
25:14
Speaker 3: five years ago? Silver was I can't remember what it
25:17
Speaker 3: peaked out at? Twenty eight or thirty? Yeah, okay, so
25:20
Speaker 3: what are we talking? What are we talking here? Sixty
25:25
Speaker 3: or seventy? What are we now? Forty five hundred to
25:30
Speaker 3: seventy dollars? Were sixty or seventy again? Okay, So just
25:36
Speaker 3: following that, if gold doubles again in five years and
25:41
Speaker 3: it's now nine thousand dollars an ounce in the year
25:45
Speaker 3: twenty thirty, one, What would a seventy gold silver ratio
25:50
Speaker 3: be at?
25:52
Speaker 1: Can carry?
25:52
Speaker 3: Help me with the mat the old man?
25:54
Speaker 1: Right? Oh no, with that jeens just shut down, man
25:58
Speaker 1: one hundred, they totally shut down seventy At what price
26:01
Speaker 1: you're talking about?
26:02
Speaker 3: I mean, if if gold, if if the mean kind
26:07
Speaker 3: of average gold silver ratio in this pricing game is
26:10
Speaker 3: say sixty five sixty five gold goes to nine thousand
26:15
Speaker 3: dollars and it doubles again in the next five years.
26:18
Speaker 1: Oh god, you you're asking a lot of mass questions here.
26:21
Speaker 1: What are you? My algebra teacher?
26:23
Speaker 3: Right? Exactly what we got to do is square roots,
26:28
Speaker 3: all right, one hundredler get a hard and fifty one
26:31
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty dollars silver something.
26:32
Speaker 1: Like one hundred and thirty eight bucks at nine thousand,
26:35
Speaker 1: So you could stay two hundred seventy five at eighteen thousand.
26:40
Speaker 1: But you know, and I know that if gold increases
26:44
Speaker 1: that much, the ratio is going to compress. And because
26:51
Speaker 1: because silver is being consumed, I mean I need to
26:54
Speaker 1: tell you. You could tell me you've forgotten more than I know.
26:58
Speaker 1: But point is is that silver scarcity also critical metal status.
27:07
Speaker 1: I believe it's going to be the pretext for incursions
27:10
Speaker 1: into Mexico.
27:13
Speaker 3: Oh, that's an interesting idea. Well, and Carrie, did you
27:16
Speaker 3: go back to January for a second, because started there.
27:21
Speaker 3: You know, everybody, the common and that's a real common
27:25
Speaker 3: misconception is that that was somehow some speculative blowoff top
27:31
Speaker 3: by going to one hundred and twenty from seventy in
27:34
Speaker 3: a month. I suppose there was some speculation they're primarily
27:38
Speaker 3: out of China, I guess, you know, because they were
27:41
Speaker 3: trying to rain in China, speculation and raising margins and
27:44
Speaker 3: all that stuff. But open interest on COMEX never really
27:48
Speaker 3: took off right now. Hell, it's at fourteen year lows,
27:53
Speaker 3: so that what was really happening. There were two things
27:56
Speaker 3: that happened in January that really exascerbated you touch don One.
28:01
Speaker 3: China put up export controls announced the last October they
28:04
Speaker 3: went affect January the first. So that was the first thing.
28:08
Speaker 3: And then second, the dollar was plunging. You reference that
28:11
Speaker 3: as well. I mean that the dollar has rallied sharply
28:15
Speaker 3: since about the last week of January, but prior to that,
28:19
Speaker 3: from January nineteenth to about January twenty seventh, it fell
28:23
Speaker 3: three points in like eight trading days. So the dollar's plunging,
28:29
Speaker 3: and you got these export controls, all the physical fundamentals,
28:32
Speaker 3: all of that is what made silver do this. And yeah,
28:39
Speaker 3: you know this export controls, the gating you know of
28:42
Speaker 3: you know, the out of these countries that are putting
28:44
Speaker 3: export controls on gold as well. Silver is a critical mineral.
28:50
Speaker 3: All that stuff remains.
28:52
Speaker 1: And so you.
28:54
Speaker 3: Factor that into and the stress of the leverage of
28:57
Speaker 3: this pricing scheme that you're seeing, you know, with drawdowns
29:01
Speaker 3: in New York in the vaults and also in Shanghai.
29:05
Speaker 3: When I say one hundred and thirty eight dollars just
29:07
Speaker 3: following gold forward at the same ratio, Okay, that's kind
29:11
Speaker 3: of at a minimum. I mean, if the whole scheme
29:13
Speaker 3: falls apart and we go back to fifteen to one,
29:17
Speaker 3: you know, or whatever historical was easily.
29:21
Speaker 1: And one other thing, why you see that silver's changed
29:25
Speaker 1: the trade patterns a little bit. You're starting to see
29:29
Speaker 1: upside reversals during the abcess market, right during the and
29:35
Speaker 1: during the regular at comax market. Anyway, a couple of
29:38
Speaker 1: questions here. Rich says, I disagree partially with Craig. Gold
29:44
Speaker 1: isn't just evaluation it's the interest in owning in combination
29:50
Speaker 1: with devaluation, which I think is to me it's one
29:54
Speaker 1: and the same. But tell me what you think.
29:57
Speaker 3: Phrasing that again, I kind of lost me for using I.
30:00
Speaker 1: Disagree partially with gold isn't just devaluation, it's the interest
30:05
Speaker 1: in owning in combination with So I think the value
30:10
Speaker 1: of gold going up isn't just the fact that the
30:13
Speaker 1: currency is devaluing. But and correct me if I'm wrong here, Richard,
30:18
Speaker 1: But it's also the fact that the interest in owning
30:23
Speaker 1: gold is increasing for the reasons we're talking about.
30:27
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, sure, I know, And that's fine. I just
30:30
Speaker 3: trying to keep it in kind of. I don't want
30:33
Speaker 3: to make it sound like I'm tagging down. I'm just
30:36
Speaker 3: trying to keep it simple. That's where I use that analogy.
30:39
Speaker 3: I just try to keep focused and keep people focused
30:43
Speaker 3: on just that simple basic fact that the gold isn't changing.
30:47
Speaker 3: It's whatever you're measuring it in that's changing.
30:52
Speaker 1: Anyway.
30:53
Speaker 3: But no, hey, that's fine, Richard. I'll go along with
30:55
Speaker 3: that for sure.
30:56
Speaker 1: Richard agreed with my interpretation. Anyway, I kind of have
31:00
Speaker 1: to run. We got to get done. Another question, All right,
31:04
Speaker 1: all right, we'll go time for Mark. Here's a question
31:07
Speaker 1: for Craig. What does Craig think about tokenization and stable
31:11
Speaker 1: coins on both old and silver.
31:14
Speaker 3: Anything that increases demand. You know I talked about central
31:18
Speaker 3: bank demand then you know Turkey selling and that you
31:22
Speaker 3: know that was underpinning Remember all these annual reports that
31:25
Speaker 3: you and I have talked about every year that I write, Yeah,
31:28
Speaker 3: is this Ember of January? You know why isn't gold going?
31:31
Speaker 3: Why is it gold correcting? Well, that central bank demand
31:33
Speaker 3: was underpinning it. You remove the central bank demand for
31:36
Speaker 3: a month and all of a sudden, look what happens.
31:39
Speaker 3: You get this correction, right, you get the price to
31:41
Speaker 3: fall more substantially than we've seen in multi in several years.
31:46
Speaker 3: But the stable coin stuff is a big part of that.
31:49
Speaker 3: It'll be interesting to see what tether adds this quarter
31:51
Speaker 3: over they twenty almost I think one hundred metric tons
31:55
Speaker 3: last year.
31:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe twenty.
31:57
Speaker 3: Seven tons or some something. The last time we got
32:01
Speaker 3: a number out of them for just a quarter. So yeah, no,
32:04
Speaker 3: that helps too. Again, anything any ounces get removed from
32:10
Speaker 3: the system, uh and put into other central bank vaults
32:14
Speaker 3: or tethers or whatever. That then the bullion banks and
32:17
Speaker 3: the like can't then sell and swap and lease and
32:20
Speaker 3: forward sell and all that other crap that they do.
32:23
Speaker 3: You're just stretching the leverage even more on this pricing
32:27
Speaker 3: scheme that gives you. You know, that leaves every with
32:30
Speaker 3: impression that there's more gold and silver than there actually are.
32:33
Speaker 3: It's just all these outcomeic financial derivatives that have cut
32:37
Speaker 3: they've come up with of the last fifty years. So
32:39
Speaker 3: anything that removes metal from the system, I'm all for it.
32:41
Speaker 3: And that seems to continue. Let's hope it does.
32:44
Speaker 1: Okay, we got one more here from Darren. You they're
32:47
Speaker 1: good to do one last one because this is called
32:50
Speaker 1: stump the moderators. Do you feel that silver's price has
32:55
Speaker 1: followed the coondrati of numbers?
32:58
Speaker 3: You mean the whole Condratti if waves where it goes in.
33:02
Speaker 1: The retracement where we need sixty fifty numbers always pop
33:09
Speaker 1: up right now?
33:11
Speaker 3: I do think Fibonacci numbers.
33:13
Speaker 1: Fibonacci Okay, mcgarious, Fibonacci numbers.
33:17
Speaker 3: I'm sorry because Condratti if waves or a whole other deal,
33:23
Speaker 3: but uh, Fibonacci numbers there. Look, carry there is something
33:27
Speaker 3: to that because so many I was, so much of
33:31
Speaker 3: the trading, whether it's in the mining shares on New
33:33
Speaker 3: York Stock Exchange or even on comax, is just automated.
33:38
Speaker 3: You know, it's either tracking. You know, you sell a
33:41
Speaker 3: lot because there's an uptick in the dollar, or you
33:45
Speaker 3: base it off of some technical factor. You know, you're
33:48
Speaker 3: going to dump some if it falls below a certain
33:50
Speaker 3: moving average or whatever. All these commodity trading funds that
33:53
Speaker 3: are all run by algo all of that, and so
33:57
Speaker 3: therefore there is something to it. Technical analysis works. If
34:01
Speaker 3: everybody's looking at the same thing, then everybody pretty much
34:04
Speaker 3: responds the same way. And that's and and so where
34:09
Speaker 3: you have these funds that are all programmed to trade
34:11
Speaker 3: the same way, well then they're you know, you're gonna
34:14
Speaker 3: get bounces at a fifty percent retracement and a sixty
34:17
Speaker 3: sixty one point eight and all that kind of stuff.
34:19
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's something to it.
34:21
Speaker 1: All. Right, Well, we're gonna leave it at that. Make
34:23
Speaker 1: sure you go over to Craigsite subscribe tfmetalsreport dot com.
34:29
Speaker 1: Like it says in the background there and uh, a
34:32
Speaker 1: little more than a overpriced cup of latte. They're an
34:37
Speaker 1: unknown undisclosed coffee shop. You could become a subscriber, a
34:42
Speaker 1: subscribe to my substack. Man Like, look, I've got a
34:45
Speaker 1: report coming out, Craig, You're gonna love. It's called The
34:49
Speaker 1: Living the Silver Backed Lifestyle, and what it shows is
34:56
Speaker 1: basically how you can live off your silver holdings if
35:00
Speaker 1: you just add a little bit every week, Basically you
35:04
Speaker 1: become dependent.
35:06
Speaker 3: Do we get a first person recat of some of
35:09
Speaker 3: the trips you take, Carrie? Well, would make it worth rating?
35:14
Speaker 1: This is a family rated show, the family does you
35:19
Speaker 1: kind of have to you kind of have to use
35:20
Speaker 1: your imagination all that one. All right, Hey, we hit
35:25
Speaker 1: fifty people on the stream and it was totally spontaneous,
35:28
Speaker 1: no prior announcements, no nothing. This is why we're going
35:32
Speaker 1: to do it from now on next and I will
35:34
Speaker 1: shoot you a link so you can get your subscribers
35:37
Speaker 1: come on too, and I'm sure they would absolutely love this.
35:41
Speaker 1: And I like it too. There's just something cool about
35:45
Speaker 1: all you guys watching us. And you know, even if
35:49
Speaker 1: you're not participating, which I wish more of you would.
35:54
Speaker 1: Richard says, it works for me. I have nothing else
35:57
Speaker 1: going on any but I swear, which is on every
36:00
Speaker 1: one of these streams.
36:02
Speaker 3: But he's up to speed. Man, he's on top of
36:05
Speaker 3: the situation because he's watching Star Trek reruns or.
36:11
Speaker 1: Times on all reruns if you're really old like us.
36:15
Speaker 1: But yeah, like no, it's really fun doing it. I
36:19
Speaker 1: enjoy it, and it just adds a dimension to it.
36:24
Speaker 1: So anyway, Financial Survival Network dot com, Carrie LUTs dot com,
36:29
Speaker 1: whatever on substack subscribe. It's like ten bucks a month.
36:34
Speaker 1: I mean, just the report alone. I could probably sell
36:38
Speaker 1: it for a few hundred. I'll sell it for fifty
36:40
Speaker 1: bucks cred. Ohways, a pleasure, man. We will talk to
36:43
Speaker 1: you again real soon.
36:44
Speaker 3: All right, my friend, let's do it.
36:46
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
36:50
Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
36:54
Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now than ever.