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Wednesday BEST BETS | September Ends | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & MLB Playoffs | 9/30/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:24
Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
0:27
Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
0:30
Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
0:35
Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
0:39
Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
0:43
Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
0:46
Speaker 1: to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
0:52
Speaker 2: Look at me now.
0:57
Speaker 1: Hold on.
0:59
Speaker 2: Hold on. Not tonight.
1:03
Speaker 3: Not now.
1:05
Speaker 1: Hold on. Hold on.
1:09
Speaker 2: Let me pull you out. That fellow fights hard. But
1:17
Speaker 2: it don't get the crown.
1:21
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
1:35
Speaker 3: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you, Toadstool Sports. Wednesday,
1:40
Speaker 3: September 30th. Maybe good for September to be over, I
1:44
Speaker 3: don't know. Everything is over. The Red Sox are dead.
1:48
Speaker 3: I mean, this is all really awesome. We went 1-1
1:50
Speaker 3: on the show yesterday. The Florida Panthers won. It was
1:54
Speaker 3: a close game, but they had the upper hand statistically slightly.
1:59
Speaker 3: They won the shots battle. Didn't really allow a lot
2:02
Speaker 3: of shots on goal from Carolina, so that usually is
2:05
Speaker 3: sort of how the scoring winds up playing out, although
2:07
Speaker 3: Carolina was pretty dominant with the face-offs, but even so.
2:13
Speaker 3: As an underdog, having the upper hand in the shot battle,
2:16
Speaker 3: that's pretty much what you can ask for there. They
2:19
Speaker 3: did have to go to overtime, but they did get
2:21
Speaker 3: the win. And then we lost in the WNBA, of course. Minnesota,
2:25
Speaker 3: I mean, they just don't match up well against the Liberty.
2:29
Speaker 3: I don't know what else to tell you. They drew
2:31
Speaker 3: a bad matchup in that one, and I'm not that
2:33
Speaker 3: mad about it because the Minnesota fan base deserves... that
2:37
Speaker 3: type of loss number one seed one of the best
2:40
Speaker 3: teams we've seen in the WNBA first round exit sweep
2:43
Speaker 3: yeah just get out of here whatever that's you know
2:46
Speaker 3: of course the fan base that was going after Sophie
2:50
Speaker 3: Cunningham for her comments where she doesn't want men to
2:54
Speaker 3: play in the WNBA so yeah this woke Minnesota fan
2:58
Speaker 3: base boot their team out I'm all right with that
3:02
Speaker 3: I just Want to give our winners on the show, man.
3:05
Speaker 3: I thought that was a spot for them to bounce back.
3:08
Speaker 3: Their offense was terrible. I mean, it wasn't really a
3:10
Speaker 3: misleading final. They got outplayed in the game. It is
3:13
Speaker 3: what it is, even though, yeah, the shooting was kind
3:16
Speaker 3: of an outlier. I mean, they were atypically bad at shooting,
3:19
Speaker 3: but they still did not play well in that game.
3:21
Speaker 3: It should have been closer than the final was, I
3:23
Speaker 3: would say. But, yeah, I mean, that's not good enough
3:27
Speaker 3: when you have a Moneyline favorite. Anyway, we have kind
3:30
Speaker 3: of a sparse board today across those same three sports.
3:34
Speaker 3: The wildcard rounds are continuing because I think wildcard rounds,
3:37
Speaker 3: they just go, I believe they just go three days
3:41
Speaker 3: in a row if necessary. They just keep playing until
3:44
Speaker 3: the series is over, and then there might be like
3:46
Speaker 3: a day off probably before the next series because teams
3:49
Speaker 3: need to travel and whatever. And then we'll have rest
3:53
Speaker 3: advantages from some other teams, whether that's an advantage or
3:56
Speaker 3: disadvantage remains a debate. I don't know. Let's get into it.
4:01
Speaker 3: I have one play today, and it is in the MLB.
4:05
Speaker 3: I have some opinions on the NHL here, but I
4:06
Speaker 3: don't think they're strong enough to really warrant anything here.
4:10
Speaker 3: We have Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on TNT at 730, the
4:14
Speaker 3: Battle of Pennsylvania. This is definitely a rivalry. I think
4:17
Speaker 3: both teams will show up. This is revenge. This is
4:20
Speaker 3: playoff revenge, which does matter, especially when it was at
4:23
Speaker 3: the hands of a rival. So as people may recall,
4:26
Speaker 3: Philadelphia eliminated Pittsburgh from the playoffs last year, which I
4:31
Speaker 3: had right in my bracket. I believe that was the case, right?
4:34
Speaker 3: So this is a revenge spot for Pittsburgh. Big game
4:38
Speaker 3: for them, possibly a bigger game for them. So for
4:40
Speaker 3: that reason alone, I will lean that way just because
4:42
Speaker 3: I think the revenge is an extra motivator. But for
4:48
Speaker 3: the same reasons I like Philadelphia in the playoff series,
4:51
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily want to really fade them here because
4:54
Speaker 3: Philadelphia is, I think, the better team. They're the better
4:58
Speaker 3: defensive team, unless a lot of things have changed since
5:00
Speaker 3: last year. And if you saw my NHL preview, I'm
5:03
Speaker 3: not high on Pittsburgh. This year, I think they overperformed
5:06
Speaker 3: last year to get into the playoffs, and people, I think,
5:09
Speaker 3: were too high on them last year based on what
5:12
Speaker 3: their actual statistics suggested that they were last year, which
5:17
Speaker 3: basically suggested that they really kind of shouldn't even have
5:20
Speaker 3: been a playoff team last year based on how they
5:23
Speaker 3: played statistically. So I will stay off the game. The
5:26
Speaker 3: money seems to slightly be indicating on Philadelphia, 60% of tickets,
5:30
Speaker 3: 63% of the cash on them. They moved up from
5:34
Speaker 3: minus 129 to minus 142 or somewhere in that range,
5:38
Speaker 3: so some money has come in on Philly. I would
5:41
Speaker 3: still be slightly leaning in the other direction, though. I'd
5:43
Speaker 3: slightly lean with the revenge angle towards Pittsburgh, but I
5:46
Speaker 3: just don't love it enough. Both things I thought were
5:50
Speaker 3: the case with my play yesterday. I thought we were
5:51
Speaker 3: getting the better team with Florida and also getting a
5:55
Speaker 3: good situation with them. We have Islanders in Toronto, and
5:59
Speaker 3: as people will remember, Toronto played already. They played yesterday.
6:03
Speaker 3: So the thought might be, well, that means Toronto's at
6:06
Speaker 3: a rest disadvantage, right, because they played yesterday. But I
6:09
Speaker 3: don't think so. When you're talking about the first game
6:13
Speaker 3: of the season, the second game of the season, I
6:15
Speaker 3: actually think having played one game already is actually an
6:17
Speaker 3: advantage to Toronto. They lost yesterday. It was a big game,
6:21
Speaker 3: and that's kind of why I don't want to do this.
6:23
Speaker 3: But I kind of like Toronto in this one. I
6:25
Speaker 3: think they're probably the better team against the Islanders. The
6:28
Speaker 3: Islanders are not really good. Toronto, I think, kind of
6:32
Speaker 3: underperformed a little bit last year. But, yeah, so I
6:36
Speaker 3: think Toronto having a game under their belt actually helps
6:38
Speaker 3: them because it gets the nerves out of the way.
6:40
Speaker 3: It gets you ready. They're staying at home. But, yes,
6:44
Speaker 3: they did play yesterday, so... I still don't want to
6:47
Speaker 3: necessarily do it even though the rest spot isn't really
6:49
Speaker 3: going to be that bad because they had days off
6:51
Speaker 3: prior to playing yesterday right so playing one game and
6:54
Speaker 3: then having to play another one isn't really that bad
6:57
Speaker 3: of a scenario we're not talking about playing three games
6:59
Speaker 3: in four days yet or something like that or a
7:02
Speaker 3: back-to-back in the middle of the season when you really
7:04
Speaker 3: haven't had a lot of time off prior to it
7:06
Speaker 3: that's not the case here but the Islanders have not
7:09
Speaker 3: played a regular season game yet so they might come
7:11
Speaker 3: in a little bit cold right like you kind of
7:13
Speaker 3: want to shed those nerves and get that game under
7:15
Speaker 3: your belt. So I like Toronto in this one, and
7:18
Speaker 3: I think they're the better team. And it's actually, I
7:20
Speaker 3: don't know, the price actually kind of looks a little
7:22
Speaker 3: cheap to me on Toronto because I really don't think
7:25
Speaker 3: the Islanders are that good. I expected this price to
7:27
Speaker 3: be a little bit more expensive on Toronto, but maybe
7:30
Speaker 3: it is because of the back-to-back. You're getting a little
7:32
Speaker 3: bit of a discount on Toronto. But the problem I
7:34
Speaker 3: have with it is that was a big game for
7:36
Speaker 3: Toronto yesterday against Montreal. Like I said, that's a rivalry.
7:40
Speaker 3: Those two teams do not like each other. their original
7:43
Speaker 3: six teams, whatever. So I don't necessarily want to take
7:45
Speaker 3: Toronto coming off of a big game like that. They
7:49
Speaker 3: only lost by one, although the game was kind of
7:52
Speaker 3: over before that. Like they were down 3-1 really late
7:55
Speaker 3: in the game. They scored, I think the goal to
7:58
Speaker 3: make it 3-2, I think they scored with like five
8:00
Speaker 3: minutes left, although they were still within one goal for
8:02
Speaker 3: five minutes. So you could still consider that game to
8:04
Speaker 3: be close, although you basically consider every hockey game to
8:08
Speaker 3: be close for the most part, most of them. Still
8:12
Speaker 3: lean Toronto here. Don't think it makes the cut, though.
8:15
Speaker 3: 72% of tickets, 79% of the cash on them. Around
8:18
Speaker 3: minus 120-something here. That's what we got on that. And
8:23
Speaker 3: then LA Kings at Colorado. Saab mentioned this game yesterday.
8:27
Speaker 3: This will be a revenge spot for the Kings as
8:30
Speaker 3: Colorado swept them out of the playoffs. So I'd probably
8:34
Speaker 3: lean LA here. I mean, the public's not going to
8:37
Speaker 3: be on LA. But if you remember last year, LA
8:40
Speaker 3: was a terrible road team. Last year, if I remember correctly.
8:44
Speaker 3: So I really don't really want to try to come in. Oh, no, wait.
8:47
Speaker 1: No, no, no.
8:48
Speaker 3: I got that backwards.
8:49
Speaker 2: L.A.
8:50
Speaker 3: Was actually a good road team last year. They were
8:52
Speaker 3: the same thing as the Rangers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm
8:54
Speaker 3: getting that all mixed up in my head. Yeah, L.A.
8:56
Speaker 3: was actually a good road team last year. So that
9:00
Speaker 3: does help the case for L.A. if you do like this. Yeah, L.A.
9:02
Speaker 3: was a better road team than home team for whatever reason.
9:06
Speaker 3: Similar to the Rangers. But two years ago, they were
9:08
Speaker 3: a better home team. So it's weird. You never know. Really,
9:11
Speaker 3: but going into elevation is still not really that easy. Although, yes,
9:15
Speaker 3: they're returning to the scene of the crime. It will
9:17
Speaker 3: be revenge. I mean, you remember who ended your season
9:19
Speaker 3: last year for L.A.? That was Colorado. So weird that
9:22
Speaker 3: we have two playoff revenge games today. Colorado maybe a
9:27
Speaker 3: little bit overvalued after they were really good last season.
9:30
Speaker 3: They're still the better team here, obviously. Colorado is about
9:33
Speaker 3: minus 200 at this point. They actually moved up from
9:36
Speaker 3: minus 170-something yesterday. The Republic side, though, 90% of the tickets,
9:40
Speaker 3: 89% of the cash on them. So, yeah, I mean,
9:45
Speaker 3: I'll probably agree with Saab on that, and the way
9:47
Speaker 3: to play this would be what he's doing, which is
9:49
Speaker 3: take the puck line on the Kings, the plus one
9:52
Speaker 3: and a half, or if it's a little bit too expensive,
9:55
Speaker 3: I guess you could do like a split bet type
9:57
Speaker 3: of thing and put half or whatever, not half, but
10:00
Speaker 3: like find a way to even it out so that
10:02
Speaker 3: it becomes like a, you make your own plus one
10:05
Speaker 3: puck line. You know what I mean? If you use
10:07
Speaker 3: one of those odds calculators to figure out what percentage
10:09
Speaker 3: to put on each part of it. But yeah, you
10:11
Speaker 3: could make, you put some on the plus one and
10:13
Speaker 3: a half puck line and some on the money line
10:15
Speaker 3: on them. Although I would say if you're, if you're
10:17
Speaker 3: just Totally going on the puck line here for your bet.
10:21
Speaker 3: I would still say put like 10% of it on
10:23
Speaker 3: the money line here. I mean, it's Hawk. If you're
10:25
Speaker 3: saying a team's going to cover a plus one and
10:27
Speaker 3: a half, you're saying there's a pretty good chance they're
10:29
Speaker 3: going to win the game. So do I really think
10:32
Speaker 3: that here? No, I mean, that's the other concern. The
10:35
Speaker 3: concern I have with L.A., really the main concern is
10:38
Speaker 3: they seem to not match up well against Colorado. I
10:41
Speaker 3: think Colorado won every single game against them last year,
10:44
Speaker 3: regular season and postseason. So that would concern me, even
10:47
Speaker 3: though this is a revenge spot. It just seems like
10:49
Speaker 3: there's a matchup issue here for L.A. So I'm skipping
10:54
Speaker 3: the hockey board today, but those are my opinions on
10:56
Speaker 3: those games. The WNBA playoffs continue on ESPN. ESPN doubleheader.
11:02
Speaker 3: Of course, ESPN, you know, why would they have MLB?
11:04
Speaker 3: Why would they have baseball? You know, even though baseball
11:08
Speaker 3: playoffs are going on. No, let's air women's basketball instead.
11:12
Speaker 3: That's what everybody wants to watch. Atlanta at Washington. Atlanta,
11:16
Speaker 3: as expected, won the first game at home. They won
11:20
Speaker 3: by a lot, which I didn't really expect that. It
11:22
Speaker 3: was way higher scoring than I thought it would be.
11:25
Speaker 3: So you might be able to zigzag the total here
11:28
Speaker 3: because I thought that game was going to be low scoring.
11:30
Speaker 3: These are two defensive teams, and the total was in
11:34
Speaker 3: the 160s, and the game went way over the total. Well,
11:38
Speaker 3: not way over, but it did go over by a bit. Well, actually,
11:42
Speaker 3: you know, it went over by less than I thought
11:44
Speaker 3: now that I'm looking. For some reason, when I saw
11:46
Speaker 3: Atlanta scored in the 90s, I was thinking, holy shit,
11:49
Speaker 3: that game went way over. I guess it didn't really, though.
11:51
Speaker 3: Because I was thinking if the game went way over
11:53
Speaker 3: the total, you might have an opportunity to maybe zigzag
11:55
Speaker 3: back to the under in this one. Although in game twos,
11:58
Speaker 3: I don't really love the unders either because defenses have
12:02
Speaker 3: a little bit less rest, so that kind of worries
12:04
Speaker 3: me a little bit too. But whatever. Atlanta won the
12:07
Speaker 3: game by 15. If we're looking at the side here,
12:10
Speaker 3: it is a little bit interesting because... Both teams shot
12:13
Speaker 3: kind of average or really not great from three-point range.
12:17
Speaker 3: But the big outliers you can see here are that
12:19
Speaker 3: Atlanta made 10 more free throws in the game. They
12:23
Speaker 3: hit 96% of their free throws, only missed one. And
12:25
Speaker 3: Washington was a dreadful 68% from free throw range. Washington
12:31
Speaker 3: also had 23 turnovers to Atlanta's seven. So there are
12:35
Speaker 3: some outliers here where that swung the game towards Atlanta
12:39
Speaker 3: big time. Like if Washington's able to clean up these turnovers...
12:42
Speaker 3: They should be able to have a better game here.
12:44
Speaker 3: And the free throw disparity was definitely an outlier as well.
12:48
Speaker 3: And Washington won the rebound battle by almost 20. And
12:52
Speaker 3: Washington led the game for a higher percentage of the
12:54
Speaker 3: game than Atlanta did. So really, this is a misleading result.
12:58
Speaker 3: Washington actually should have covered this game. And it looks
13:01
Speaker 3: like they sort of could have won the game based
13:04
Speaker 3: on these statistics. Like, the rebound dominance... I mean, that
13:08
Speaker 3: really does tell you something. I mean, of course, New
13:11
Speaker 3: York did win the rebound battle again yesterday against us. So, yeah,
13:14
Speaker 3: I'm going to have to lean Washington here. I don't know, man.
13:21
Speaker 3: I'm thinking about, should I make this a play?
13:23
Speaker 2: I don't know.
13:24
Speaker 3: I mean, you're getting like a defensive home underdog here,
13:29
Speaker 3: which I do like. They're like a three, three and
13:31
Speaker 3: a half point dog here now. Atlanta, 65% of tickets,
13:35
Speaker 3: 67% of the cash on them. They opened two, though,
13:38
Speaker 3: so some of the money did drive that up a
13:39
Speaker 3: little bit. But, yeah, I would only play Washington here, though,
13:43
Speaker 3: and there are some outliers in that first game that
13:45
Speaker 3: make it look, you know, like that game was not
13:49
Speaker 3: what it appeared to be on the scoreboard at all.
13:51
Speaker 3: You had a huge free throw disparity that helped Atlanta.
13:54
Speaker 3: The turnover disparity really helped them, too. I'm thinking about it.
14:01
Speaker 3: I am thinking about it. Hold on, let me see.
14:04
Speaker 3: What did Atlanta do? Dude, I forgot to look at
14:06
Speaker 3: the head-to-head regular season here. Atlanta won two out of
14:10
Speaker 3: the three during the regular season. They dominated a home
14:12
Speaker 3: game by over 30 points. Washington won at home. Washington won. Actually,
14:18
Speaker 3: Washington won both home games outright during the regular season
14:22
Speaker 3: against Atlanta. Yeah, Washington won the season series. You know what?
14:27
Speaker 3: all right, fine, let's do it. I think it makes sense.
14:30
Speaker 3: I think there's enough of a zigzag component to this,
14:33
Speaker 3: which I think it's actually better than yesterday, too, because
14:37
Speaker 3: Washington actually won the rebound battle in that first game
14:39
Speaker 3: by a lot and lost the turnover battle horribly, and
14:42
Speaker 3: neither of those things were the case with Minnesota in
14:46
Speaker 3: their first game. Let me see. We can get plus
14:51
Speaker 3: three and a half right now, it looks like, is
14:53
Speaker 3: about the number here. Yeah, all right, why not? I
14:56
Speaker 3: see a 4.5 at the scoreboard book, but it is
14:59
Speaker 3: juiced a little bit too much here, although they have
15:02
Speaker 3: a good money line on this, so you maybe can
15:04
Speaker 3: play the money line there. Okay. We'll take Washington plus 3.5.
15:10
Speaker 3: I was not prepared today. I thought I was going
15:13
Speaker 3: to skip the board, but, dude, we're like three games below.
15:17
Speaker 3: 500 in the WNBA right now. It's going to be
15:20
Speaker 3: a losing season unless I can somehow go like 4-0
15:24
Speaker 3: to finish the postseason here which is basically impossible. But yeah,
15:28
Speaker 3: I think Washington is the right play there. They're a
15:31
Speaker 3: competitive team. They're good defense. They were competitive. They won
15:34
Speaker 3: both games outright at home against Atlanta this year. And
15:38
Speaker 3: they did a lot better in that first game than
15:40
Speaker 3: what it looked like on the scoreboard. So let's do that. Yeah, yeah,
15:45
Speaker 3: fuck you. Comedic creations, whatever. Do not come into my
15:49
Speaker 3: stream and fucking do that shit. Get the fuck out.
15:53
Speaker 3: I'm done with this bullshit. I'm so fucking done with
15:56
Speaker 3: this shit. Um, fuck off.
15:59
Speaker 2: Yeah.
15:59
Speaker 3: Congratulations. You beat a team that has a bullpen. That's
16:03
Speaker 3: Burgos and olds and Eric Miller. Who's definitely overrated too.
16:07
Speaker 2: Yeah.
16:07
Speaker 3: And Bay. Oh yeah. Really good fucking pitching there.
16:10
Speaker 2: Yeah.
16:11
Speaker 3: Isn't that just great? I dude, I'm going to talk
16:13
Speaker 3: about it when I get to, I don't know what
16:15
Speaker 3: the fuck. Um, yeah, whatever dude. Um, fuck the Yankees. They,
16:21
Speaker 3: they deserve to fucking lose. Um, Anyway, Golden State to Dallas.
16:25
Speaker 3: I would also zigzag this game. Dallas lost badly by
16:29
Speaker 3: 24 points at Golden State. I did say I liked
16:32
Speaker 3: Golden State in that game. Dallas is not a good
16:34
Speaker 3: road team, and Golden State is definitely a good home team,
16:37
Speaker 3: but now it's going to flip to Dallas here. So Dallas,
16:42
Speaker 3: you know, they're better at home. However, if you look
16:44
Speaker 3: at the regular season here, Dallas didn't win any of
16:47
Speaker 3: the games. They had one home game. They got blown
16:49
Speaker 3: out basically in that game. So Dallas, for some reason,
16:53
Speaker 3: Dallas actually played better in the two road games against
16:56
Speaker 3: Golden State. Their worst loss to them was actually at home.
17:00
Speaker 3: So I'm going to stay away from this. I mean,
17:01
Speaker 3: I just don't like the fact that Dallas is an
17:03
Speaker 3: inexperienced team, although Washington kind of is too. You know,
17:08
Speaker 3: Golden State doesn't have that much experience either right now. But,
17:11
Speaker 3: you know, I'm going to still lean Dallas here, but
17:14
Speaker 3: I don't want to put it on my card. You
17:15
Speaker 3: look at this game here. Dallas lost the turnover battle.
17:19
Speaker 3: So that was one thing that went against them here.
17:21
Speaker 3: They might be able to clean that up. Golden State
17:24
Speaker 3: had very few turnovers there. The rebound battle was actually close.
17:27
Speaker 3: So Dallas did play pretty competitively here. But you notice
17:30
Speaker 3: the huge outlier here is Golden State hit 18 three-pointers.
17:34
Speaker 3: They had 12 more three-pointers. Yeah, so that's right. So
17:37
Speaker 3: Golden State was plus 36 from three-point range in this game.
17:42
Speaker 3: That is an insane outlier there. So you've got to
17:46
Speaker 3: think that's going to regress. Golden State hitting 50% from
17:49
Speaker 3: three-point range, and Dallas just shot somewhat normally in the game,
17:53
Speaker 3: a little bit low from three-point range. Dallas usually does
17:56
Speaker 3: score better than that. So again, I think I would
17:59
Speaker 3: also zigzag this. I don't think I want to put
18:01
Speaker 3: it on my card because Dallas has not really matched
18:04
Speaker 3: up well against Golden State. Golden State's laying four and
18:07
Speaker 3: a half here, 69% of tickets, 63% of the cash
18:10
Speaker 3: on them. It's a really low total for a Dallas game.
18:13
Speaker 3: In the 150s, I think you'd kind of want to
18:17
Speaker 3: see that total be higher than that if you want
18:19
Speaker 3: Dallas here because even though I know I say I
18:22
Speaker 3: like underdogs when the game's going to be low scoring, but.
18:27
Speaker 3: Dallas wants to speed the game up. They want to
18:29
Speaker 3: play faster, so I don't know, man. I don't really
18:33
Speaker 3: like their defense either, so I prefer Washington as the
18:36
Speaker 3: home defensive dog, and the team that actually was the
18:38
Speaker 3: dominant board team in the first game, but still, that
18:41
Speaker 3: was a major outlier for Golden State, hitting everything. 12
18:44
Speaker 3: more three-pointers. You never usually see that, so I still
18:48
Speaker 3: think taking the points with Dallas is correct in this game,
18:51
Speaker 3: but they have not covered this number against Golden State
18:55
Speaker 3: at all this season, including the playoff game, their own
18:57
Speaker 3: four against this particular number against Golden State this year.
19:02
Speaker 3: They may have covered at least one of those games
19:05
Speaker 3: on the road against them this year, but still, yeah, I...
19:08
Speaker 3: I don't think I like it enough. I'll lean Dallas
19:11
Speaker 3: here though. And the money is coming in on the
19:13
Speaker 3: over for whatever that's worth. I think, you know, if
19:16
Speaker 3: it's going to go over, I think it might help, uh,
19:18
Speaker 3: Dallas a little bit, even though they are the underdog
19:21
Speaker 3: dirty sock. What's up. Thanks for hanging out. Although Dallas
19:24
Speaker 3: does also have a pretty poor defense though.
19:26
Speaker 1: All right.
19:27
Speaker 3: Um, baseball Philadelphia lost to Atlanta yesterday Philadelphia had that
19:31
Speaker 3: game dude if they won that game did win the
19:34
Speaker 3: series because I think they have the better starting pitcher
19:36
Speaker 3: in both remaining matchups here if it gets to three
19:39
Speaker 3: games Philly had it man uh like Chris Sale started
19:43
Speaker 3: to wear down a little bit and Philly got two
19:45
Speaker 3: runs off him in the sixth inning, took the lead,
19:49
Speaker 3: and Philly had the lead into the bottom of the
19:52
Speaker 3: eighth with two outs, and they had their closer in.
19:56
Speaker 3: Maybe they brought him in early, Duran. And he gave
19:59
Speaker 3: up a three-run home run with two outs, and that's
20:01
Speaker 3: how Atlanta won. You make a different pitch. I mean,
20:04
Speaker 3: I don't even think it was that bad of a pitch.
20:07
Speaker 3: I think Austin Riley took it opposite field for a
20:10
Speaker 3: ridiculous home run. But, yeah, I mean, you're one pitch
20:15
Speaker 3: away from probably winning that game if you're Philadelphia, although
20:18
Speaker 3: I know you have to pitch one more inning. Maybe
20:20
Speaker 3: Philadelphia's bullpen's not trustworthy to have another clean inning against Atlanta.
20:24
Speaker 3: But still, Philly could have stolen that game yesterday, even
20:27
Speaker 3: though they had– A little bit of a pitching disadvantage,
20:30
Speaker 3: although what surprised me is Luzardo went deep into that game.
20:33
Speaker 3: He went at least five, maybe six innings there. So
20:37
Speaker 3: Luzardo was on no restraints there. I think Philly was like, no,
20:41
Speaker 3: we're leaving him in. He's pitching well. Let's just do this.
20:44
Speaker 3: Let's have him battle Chris Sale. And he did really
20:46
Speaker 3: well in that battle there. A first five under was
20:50
Speaker 3: one of my leans in that game, and that was correct.
20:53
Speaker 3: Under didn't hit just because of that three-run home run.
20:56
Speaker 3: But now what do we do with this game? Philadelphia
20:59
Speaker 3: is facing elimination here. They have the better starter on
21:02
Speaker 3: the mound. Atlanta still has the better hitting and the
21:05
Speaker 3: better bullpen, but you got Christopher Sanchez for Philadelphia, man,
21:09
Speaker 3: and this is it for Philly, and the reason I
21:12
Speaker 3: picked Philly in my bracket in this series is because
21:15
Speaker 3: they have the better pitching, just way deeper starting pitching
21:19
Speaker 3: rotation for Philly. Will they be able to get it
21:21
Speaker 3: done in this game and stay alive? You know, I'm
21:26
Speaker 3: not going to make it a bet. And it's because
21:28
Speaker 3: Sanchez does not have good matchup numbers against the Braves specifically.
21:33
Speaker 3: He does have really good numbers on the season, though,
21:34
Speaker 3: for the most part. 2.91 ERA, 1.2 whip. That's a
21:38
Speaker 3: little bit higher than you'd like from a guy that's
21:41
Speaker 3: like ace caliber like him, but still whatever. He's not
21:44
Speaker 3: really as good on the road, though. 3.87 road ERA
21:47
Speaker 3: with a 288 opponent batting average. So backing him on
21:50
Speaker 3: the road is a little bit more difficult. He had
21:52
Speaker 3: a couple of bad starts in here late in the season,
21:55
Speaker 3: but he did finish the season with a couple of
21:56
Speaker 3: good ones, so his form looks okay right now, but
21:59
Speaker 3: my worry is his numbers against Atlanta are less than excellent.
22:04
Speaker 3: They're not horrible, but they're not good either. And 138 at-bats,
22:07
Speaker 3: he does have a really good 38-7 strikeout walk ratio
22:10
Speaker 3: against them, but they have a. 297 average and. 759
22:14
Speaker 3: OPS against them, so they've been able to hit him
22:17
Speaker 3: for a lot of contact, but not for a lot
22:19
Speaker 3: of power. although that's small ball, and like I said,
22:22
Speaker 3: small ball isn't really as good in the playoffs at
22:26
Speaker 3: this point. You want to be able to hit home runs,
22:29
Speaker 3: and that's one thing that Sanchez has limited against the Braves,
22:32
Speaker 3: is they have not been able to hit home runs
22:34
Speaker 3: against them, really. They have four of them, and two
22:37
Speaker 3: of them are Matt Olsen. One is Austin Riley, and
22:40
Speaker 3: one is Acuna, but yeah. So I'm not going to
22:43
Speaker 3: say that Sanchez is not going to do well here.
22:47
Speaker 3: I think he should do okay, And then Tyler Molle
22:51
Speaker 3: is kind of a question mark here for Atlanta. He's
22:53
Speaker 3: been good pretty much since they got him, although he
22:56
Speaker 3: sucked with San Francisco. So, like, what is he really?
23:02
Speaker 3: I think he's somewhere in the middle there, right? So
23:04
Speaker 3: I think what he is is close to what his
23:06
Speaker 3: season stats suggest, 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WIP. I think his
23:10
Speaker 3: career numbers are a little bit worse than that. But
23:13
Speaker 3: one thing we do know about him is he's been
23:14
Speaker 3: a good home pitcher this year, 2.74 home ERA. A
23:19
Speaker 3: lot of that was with San Francisco, but he did
23:21
Speaker 3: continue to pitch well with Atlanta. However, his last start
23:24
Speaker 3: was in Atlanta, and it was bad against Cincinnati. And
23:29
Speaker 3: I believe that was the game. I think I had
23:31
Speaker 3: the over in that game, right? We had an easy
23:33
Speaker 3: winner with the over in that one on the show here.
23:37
Speaker 3: Will Molly bounce back from that? I don't know, man.
23:42
Speaker 3: He is good against Philly, so that's one thing he
23:44
Speaker 3: has going for him. 135 at-bats, 32-12 strikeout walk ratio,
23:49
Speaker 3: 237 average allowed, 625 OPS. If Atlanta's going to do this,
23:55
Speaker 3: they need to win this game right now because they're
23:57
Speaker 3: not going to win tomorrow. They're going to have some
23:59
Speaker 3: real shit pitcher up against Wheeler if this series goes
24:03
Speaker 3: three games. So Atlanta needs to win this game today.
24:06
Speaker 3: If they don't, they're going to lose tomorrow. But Atlanta
24:09
Speaker 3: might not have that urgency here. You know what I mean?
24:11
Speaker 3: Philly is going to have the urgency. I did pick
24:15
Speaker 3: Philly in my bracket. Philly is getting the money here.
24:18
Speaker 3: 65% of tickets, 69% of the cash on them, minus,
24:22
Speaker 3: you know, 114 or whatever. I struggle with this because
24:25
Speaker 3: Sanchez is the better pitcher. Molly has the better matchup
24:29
Speaker 3: numbers here, though. And, you know, Philly is going to
24:33
Speaker 3: be They're on the ropes. They have more motivation. So
24:36
Speaker 3: what the hell do we do with this game? I
24:38
Speaker 3: honestly don't know. I mean, maybe the under makes more
24:41
Speaker 3: sense than anything else. The money looks like it is
24:43
Speaker 3: kind of coming in on the over, but it's a
24:46
Speaker 3: public over. 82% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them.
24:50
Speaker 3: But maybe the money's not really coming in on the
24:51
Speaker 3: over because it looks like it dropped slightly, I guess.
24:54
Speaker 3: It's hanging around seven rather than seven and a half. Yeah,
24:59
Speaker 3: I mean, I think either an under or a first
25:00
Speaker 3: five under maybe makes more sense than anything else in
25:03
Speaker 3: this game. I think both pitchers might be kind of
25:05
Speaker 3: dueling in this game. Garrett, what's up? Yes, I know,
25:09
Speaker 3: but he's overperforming with Atlanta. That's not what he is
25:13
Speaker 3: throughout his career. He's a mediocre pitcher. Yeah, you're looking
25:18
Speaker 3: at a small sample size here, but I think he
25:20
Speaker 3: should do okay against this Philly lineup that isn't really
25:23
Speaker 3: that good on the road, and they're not good against him. Now,
25:27
Speaker 3: If you're going to try to take Philly as a
25:28
Speaker 3: side here, I would only do it in the first
25:30
Speaker 3: five because they do not have a bullpen advantage here.
25:33
Speaker 3: So if you want to take Philly, you have to
25:35
Speaker 3: isolate Sanchez just being generally the better pitcher. But again,
25:39
Speaker 3: you saw the matchup numbers in the home road splits.
25:42
Speaker 3: Those do not favor Sanchez here. So I don't love it.
25:46
Speaker 3: I really don't. I think I slightly lean Atlanta in
25:50
Speaker 3: this game, to be honest, even though the money is
25:52
Speaker 3: coming in on Philly. Even though I picked Philly in
25:55
Speaker 3: my bracket, Philly could have stolen that game yesterday. I
25:58
Speaker 3: should have looked at each independent matchup more specifically, but
26:02
Speaker 3: you never know. I mean, Sanchez is still the better
26:05
Speaker 3: pitcher overall. He could come out there and win this game.
26:08
Speaker 3: You know what I mean? So I don't know. But Atlanta,
26:11
Speaker 3: like I said, if Philly does win this game, I
26:15
Speaker 3: don't think Atlanta's going to win tomorrow. It's going to
26:18
Speaker 3: be the biggest starting pitching edge that Philly has in
26:21
Speaker 3: tomorrow's game. So... That's what I will say about that.
26:25
Speaker 3: You know, if I was Philly, I would have swapped
26:27
Speaker 3: these pitchers, though. Although, I understand, I would have swapped
26:30
Speaker 3: Luzardo and Sanchez, I mean. But I understand why they
26:35
Speaker 3: did it, because, you know, they had a chance to
26:37
Speaker 3: steal yesterday's game, and they probably should have. I mean,
26:40
Speaker 3: they had that game. They had Atlanta on the ropes.
26:42
Speaker 3: They had them down one with two outs in the
26:44
Speaker 3: eighth inning. Luzardo, you know, battled Chris. He actually out-pitched
26:49
Speaker 3: Chris Sale, pretty much, in the game yesterday.
26:51
Speaker 2: So....
26:52
Speaker 3: You know, I guess you can't knock Philadelphia for doing
26:56
Speaker 3: that too much, but I would say that if they
26:57
Speaker 3: had Luzardo in here against Molly, I think it would be,
27:00
Speaker 3: I think Philly would win the game. Like, yeah, like
27:04
Speaker 3: I'd be more convinced that Philly would win this game
27:06
Speaker 3: if it was Luzardo against Molly. You know, and then
27:10
Speaker 3: they could have lost yesterday with Sanchez against Sale. Anyway,
27:15
Speaker 3: all right, those are my thoughts on that game. Chicago
27:18
Speaker 3: and Houston is going to be the one game I
27:19
Speaker 3: have a play on here. Have not made a baseball
27:22
Speaker 3: playoff play yet, although maybe I'm not too pissed because
27:25
Speaker 3: that under would have been brutal with the Red Sox
27:28
Speaker 3: bullpen just totally imploding, which I'll talk about in a minute.
27:31
Speaker 3: I don't know what the fuck is going on there.
27:35
Speaker 3: My other strongest lean was San Diego, though, on the
27:37
Speaker 3: money line, and that would have been an easy winner yesterday,
27:40
Speaker 3: so I'm kind of pissed I didn't have that one
27:42
Speaker 3: with the team having to travel out to the West Coast. Um, Houston,
27:50
Speaker 3: I mean, Houston's on the ropes here. They lost yesterday.
27:53
Speaker 3: They have the better starting pitcher, the way more experienced
27:55
Speaker 3: starting pitcher here. I don't love their bullpens. That's what,
27:58
Speaker 3: but that's what I'm gonna do here. I'm going to
28:00
Speaker 3: go with Houston, the better and more experienced team in
28:03
Speaker 3: the first five in this one and lay the half
28:05
Speaker 3: run in the first five to get the price down.
28:08
Speaker 3: You can lay the money line in the first five
28:10
Speaker 3: you want. It's about minus 140-something, though, so I'd prefer
28:13
Speaker 3: to just knock the price down here, although I know
28:15
Speaker 3: if they're not winning, this is going to be a
28:17
Speaker 3: losing bet here. I think they could do it, though.
28:20
Speaker 3: I think you've got the experience edge and you have
28:22
Speaker 3: the starting pitching edge. This is Houston's only good starting
28:25
Speaker 3: pitcher today. He's the main reason why Houston should win
28:30
Speaker 3: this series, that plus the experience, but he is part
28:33
Speaker 3: of that experience here, and that's Hunter Brown going for
28:36
Speaker 3: Houston here. Houston did not look good yesterday, so the
28:40
Speaker 3: public might be off of them after they played poorly yesterday.
28:43
Speaker 3: They lost 6-3. They put themselves in a hole and
28:46
Speaker 3: couldn't get out of it. But that was a weird game.
28:48
Speaker 3: It was a bullpen game. The game did go over, barely,
28:52
Speaker 3: but I was correct about the over. In this game,
28:55
Speaker 3: I don't like Houston's bullpen enough, so I'm going to
28:57
Speaker 3: keep them out, even though Chicago's bullpen, you know, they're
29:03
Speaker 3: not great, but I think they're better than Houston's, so
29:05
Speaker 3: I'm going to leave Houston's bullpen out of this. I'm
29:08
Speaker 3: going to focus on the starting pitching. I'm going to
29:09
Speaker 3: fade Sean Burke here. Burke, you know, you see the
29:13
Speaker 3: stuff going around on Twitter where Burke was talking about how,
29:16
Speaker 3: you know, I don't have a wife. I don't have
29:19
Speaker 3: a girlfriend. I don't have children. My entire life is baseball.
29:22
Speaker 3: And I'm like, well, that sucks. I'm like, that sucks
29:25
Speaker 3: if he loses this game and then he has nothing to, like,
29:29
Speaker 3: fall back on. Like, is that a gloat? Like, what
29:32
Speaker 3: are you talking about, man? That would be like me
29:34
Speaker 3: gloating about... Being in that same boat and yeah, having
29:39
Speaker 3: none of those things. My life is just sports betting, man. No,
29:44
Speaker 3: it makes no sense. So, yeah, Burke, okay, fine. Yeah,
29:48
Speaker 3: his life is all baseball. Okay, we get it. He
29:50
Speaker 3: was the White Sox best pitcher this year. I'm not
29:52
Speaker 3: going to deny that. 3.34 ERA, 1.2 whip. He's my
29:54
Speaker 3: guy from Sutton, Mass., so.
30:00
Speaker 3: You know, I can't really dislike him necessarily because he
30:03
Speaker 3: did not go to the Yankees. So he's in a
30:06
Speaker 3: pinstripe uniform I can at least be okay with. Burke
30:12
Speaker 3: was also good on the road. Really good road ERA, 2.58. However,
30:18
Speaker 3: Burke did start to kind of struggle towards the end
30:20
Speaker 3: of the season. I think maybe they overworked him, overburked
30:24
Speaker 3: him a little bit. Towards the end of the season,
30:27
Speaker 3: in the last month, even though he didn't give up
30:29
Speaker 3: that many runs, he had a 24 to 12 strikeout
30:32
Speaker 3: walk ratio in September, man. So that's not exactly good.
30:36
Speaker 3: That's too many walks. And the other thing is I'm
30:40
Speaker 3: pretty positive this is going to be his first playoff. Yeah,
30:42
Speaker 3: it's going to be his first playoff game because the
30:44
Speaker 3: White Sox were historically bad the last couple of years.
30:47
Speaker 3: So yeah, this is going to be his first playoff game.
30:50
Speaker 3: So the nerves might be there for him, man. And
30:52
Speaker 3: to top it all off, He's not that good against Houston.
30:55
Speaker 3: They have 54 at-bats against him. A 259 average isn't
30:58
Speaker 3: really that good, but 852 OPS. They've been able to
31:01
Speaker 3: hit him a bit for power. They got a lot
31:04
Speaker 3: of extra base hits here off him. 15 strikeouts, 6 walks.
31:08
Speaker 3: And their main man, Alvarez, doesn't have any hits off him.
31:11
Speaker 3: He does have 3 walks, though, so there are other
31:14
Speaker 3: guys in their lineup who are doing damage here against Burke,
31:16
Speaker 3: so I think Burke is at a disadvantage here, man.
31:19
Speaker 3: I would much rather back Hunter Brown over here, who has...
31:22
Speaker 3: Playoff experience, Hunter Brown has pitched in eight playoff games
31:26
Speaker 3: in his career, and I believe he's made, I want
31:28
Speaker 3: to say he's made at least three playoff starts, and
31:31
Speaker 3: his ERA in the playoffs is in the ones in
31:34
Speaker 3: his career. So Hunter Brown has pitched well. in the playoffs.
31:37
Speaker 3: He does have playoff experience, and he's turned his season around.
31:40
Speaker 3: He's trying to come back from injury this year, but
31:43
Speaker 3: he's been better recently for the most part. He's got
31:45
Speaker 3: a 3.19 ERA now, 1.27 whip. I mean, he still
31:49
Speaker 3: walks too many guys, and that's the problem. Both these
31:52
Speaker 3: pitchers kind of have walk issues. Brown doesn't really have
31:55
Speaker 3: extreme home road splits here. Brown, I mean, yeah, one
31:59
Speaker 3: concern with him is he wasn't really going that deep
32:01
Speaker 3: into some of his recent outings, but he had a
32:03
Speaker 3: really high strikeout rate. over September. So he was pitching
32:07
Speaker 3: a bit better than Burke was recently as far as
32:10
Speaker 3: that's concerned. And the clincher here is that Brown is
32:14
Speaker 3: good against the White Sox. He's pretty much dominated them.
32:17
Speaker 3: They have 78 at-bats against them, 23 strikeouts, 7 walks,
32:21
Speaker 3: 205 average, 540 OPS. So he has the better matchup
32:25
Speaker 3: numbers here. I think we got to do it. Houston
32:28
Speaker 3: is in desperation mode now. They're down in the series.
32:32
Speaker 3: They're facing elimination. They have their best pitcher on the
32:35
Speaker 3: mound here, even though so do the White Sox. But
32:38
Speaker 3: Brown's got the better matchup numbers. I think he's the
32:40
Speaker 3: better overall pitcher. He's got way more experience. We're taking
32:44
Speaker 3: the more experienced team here. I think the offenses are
32:47
Speaker 3: somewhat evenly matched, so that's not really an issue here. But, yeah, Houston,
32:52
Speaker 3: I think, is the right side here. We're going to
32:53
Speaker 3: take Houston in the first five here. That is my
32:56
Speaker 3: only baseball play. The markets seem to not be agreeing
32:58
Speaker 3: with me, though. 61% of tickets on Houston, 51% of
33:00
Speaker 3: the cash on the White Sox. I don't know what's
33:04
Speaker 3: going on with the market here. I don't love that
33:06
Speaker 3: market read, but I still think this is the right play.
33:09
Speaker 3: Houston's in the minus 140 something range here on the
33:12
Speaker 3: money line for the full game. And it's a similar
33:15
Speaker 3: price in the first five, but I'm going to isolate
33:18
Speaker 3: the first five again. I don't, I don't trust Houston's
33:20
Speaker 3: bullpen enough. So I'm going to just focus on the
33:23
Speaker 3: starting pitching. All right. Although if you asked me, you know,
33:28
Speaker 3: I would expect Houston to win full game as well.
33:30
Speaker 3: Like I would not be that opposed to just playing
33:35
Speaker 3: the Houston Moneyline full game, but it is a little
33:37
Speaker 3: bit juicy. Although, I'm a little bit more inclined to
33:40
Speaker 3: do that in the playoffs. NBC, we have Red Sox-Yankees.
33:43
Speaker 3: The Red Sox... Got destroyed yesterday, but that was a
33:46
Speaker 3: 1-0 game into the fifth inning. And for some reason,
33:50
Speaker 3: the Red Sox took Peyton Tolley out. Why? Why did
33:53
Speaker 3: they do that? I don't know what's going on here.
33:55
Speaker 3: He gave up one run. He was pitching well. I mean,
34:00
Speaker 3: Schlittler was pitching a little bit better, but Tolley was
34:02
Speaker 3: hanging in there. And then they took him out, and
34:06
Speaker 3: they didn't even let him go five innings. What the fuck?
34:08
Speaker 3: He's your guy, man. He's supposed to be a grinder.
34:12
Speaker 3: Let him grind. And then what do they do? They
34:14
Speaker 3: bring in fucking Eric Miller, who usually is a walk concern.
34:17
Speaker 3: He comes in. He immediately gives up a fucking home
34:20
Speaker 3: run to a lefty. What the fuck are you doing, dude?
34:22
Speaker 3: What the fuck are you doing? Chad Tracy, Red Sox manager.
34:25
Speaker 3: What the fuck are you doing? And then all the
34:27
Speaker 3: Red Sox bullpen arms behind him were terrible. At that point,
34:31
Speaker 3: the game was out of control, so the Red Sox
34:32
Speaker 3: used all their bad relievers yesterday. They used Gamboa and...
34:38
Speaker 3: Wyatt Olds. Those guys are fucking trash, dude. They're trash.
34:41
Speaker 3: And then they use Weiser too. He's not good either.
34:45
Speaker 3: And then Bayo. This Red Sox bullpen all of a
34:48
Speaker 3: sudden looks really, really fucking bad, dude. Knowing that Guerrero
34:52
Speaker 3: and Slayton are both out. Yeah, this is bad. Although
34:56
Speaker 3: the Red Sox didn't use Chapman or Whitlock yesterday. So
35:00
Speaker 3: if they can get to those guys today, they might
35:02
Speaker 3: be able to somehow get this win here. I'm not
35:05
Speaker 3: going to count them totally out yet, but I don't
35:08
Speaker 3: like what we're seeing here, and I think this is
35:09
Speaker 3: kind of an even pitching matchup here. Sonny Gray is
35:12
Speaker 3: pitching for the Red Sox. He's good, 2.72 ERA, 1.15 whip.
35:18
Speaker 3: He's got more experience, so that's one thing. He has
35:20
Speaker 3: playoff experience, whereas I don't believe Peyton Tolley had any.
35:25
Speaker 3: Schlittler beat the Red Sox in the playoffs last year.
35:28
Speaker 3: Sonny Gray has a lot of experience, though. He's pitched
35:31
Speaker 3: in the playoffs repeatedly, I think probably from multiple teams
35:34
Speaker 3: at this point. So don't have to worry about Gray's experience.
35:38
Speaker 3: He knows what he's doing. His home road splits are
35:40
Speaker 3: not significant. He was fine either way. He was pitching
35:43
Speaker 3: pretty well this month as well. So his current form
35:46
Speaker 3: looks good. And his numbers are pretty good against the
35:48
Speaker 3: Yankees as well. They have 161 at-bats against him. So
35:52
Speaker 3: we have a big sample here. And he's held them
35:53
Speaker 3: to a 230 average, 642 OPS, 42 to 15 strikeout
35:58
Speaker 3: walk ratio, which that could be a little bit better.
36:01
Speaker 3: But overall, his numbers are pretty good against the Yankees.
36:05
Speaker 3: He's going up against Max Freed, who is also pretty
36:07
Speaker 3: good at 2.8 ERA,. 99 whip on the season was good,
36:09
Speaker 3: although Freed. Was a little bit worse at home, at
36:15
Speaker 3: least in giving up more runs at home. 3.42 home ERA.
36:20
Speaker 3: Freed didn't really pitch that much this year, but that
36:22
Speaker 3: was the Yankees, I think, kind of lie. These teams
36:25
Speaker 3: just lie about injuries now, you know what I mean? Oh,
36:27
Speaker 3: by the way, I forgot the Red Sox do have
36:29
Speaker 3: Garrett Crochet on the roster. I forgot about that. Crochet
36:32
Speaker 3: is in the bullpen, so he's available. I don't know
36:37
Speaker 3: what they're going to do. If they're even going to
36:38
Speaker 3: wind up using him at all, I don't know. Max Fried, though,
36:41
Speaker 3: he was in good form at the end of the
36:44
Speaker 3: season here. He pitched well. And, again, the Yankees kept
36:46
Speaker 3: him fresh by not using him in the middle of
36:49
Speaker 3: the season. I think they kind of lied about his injuries, man.
36:53
Speaker 3: All teams are doing that now. The Dodgers keep doing it.
36:55
Speaker 3: You know, whatever. Freed is also good against the Red
36:59
Speaker 3: Sox in 136 at-bats. His numbers are better than Gray's.
37:03
Speaker 3: 39-9 strikeout walk ratio, 206 average, 579 OPS. So I
37:08
Speaker 3: think this is an under again. I think that might
37:11
Speaker 3: be the better way to look in this game. Money
37:13
Speaker 3: is coming in on the over, though. 72% of tickets,
37:16
Speaker 3: 93% of the cash on the over. I still don't
37:19
Speaker 3: think I agree. You might be able to find a
37:21
Speaker 3: 7 on this. The total is 6.5 juice to the over.
37:26
Speaker 3: it looks like there is a seven at the F book,
37:30
Speaker 3: the merchandiser. You know what I mean? They have seven
37:33
Speaker 3: juiced minus 120 to the under. I think that's probably
37:38
Speaker 3: the better way to play this again, even though I
37:40
Speaker 3: know it wound up losing yesterday because of the fucking bullpen.
37:43
Speaker 3: But both teams generally do have good bullpens here. We
37:46
Speaker 3: have good starting pitching here. It's a cooler environment here,
37:49
Speaker 3: you know, We're getting close to October here now in
37:53
Speaker 3: the Northeast, so it'll be in the 60s probably, I
37:57
Speaker 3: would guess. Yeah, I think under is the right way
38:00
Speaker 3: to play this. I would still also lean to the Yankees,
38:03
Speaker 3: but the money is coming in on the Red Sox here.
38:05
Speaker 3: I think the Yankees have the better bullpen at this point,
38:07
Speaker 3: even though the Red Sox better relievers are available here today.
38:11
Speaker 3: And both bullpens were good on the season, but the
38:14
Speaker 3: Red Sox have too many bullpen injuries. Red Sox also
38:17
Speaker 3: might be without Roman Anthony because he seems to have
38:20
Speaker 3: re-injured his hand. He had a check swing where he
38:23
Speaker 3: injured his hand somehow again, and he exited the game.
38:26
Speaker 3: And then even worse, he was nowhere to be found
38:28
Speaker 3: in the clubhouse after the game. That is not a
38:31
Speaker 3: good sign. What the fuck are you doing? You're not
38:33
Speaker 3: even going to stick around with your team? I don't
38:35
Speaker 3: know what the fuck is going on, dude, because Roman
38:37
Speaker 3: Anthony had just started to hit again at the end
38:40
Speaker 3: of the season. Red Sox are going to need him
38:42
Speaker 3: if they're going to make any sort of playoff run here.
38:45
Speaker 3: What the fuck are we doing? This Red Sox team
38:47
Speaker 3: is way too inexperienced. This is why I picked against
38:50
Speaker 3: them in my bracket. They're fucked, and I'm fucking pissed off.
38:53
Speaker 3: And I'm going to remain pissed off unless the Yankees
38:56
Speaker 3: get eliminated from the playoffs somewhere. But the American League
38:59
Speaker 3: is not going to eliminate them. There's no team in
39:02
Speaker 3: the American League that can beat the Yankees. I'm sorry. Yeah,
39:05
Speaker 3: the Yankees will have to play the Rays next. Yeah,
39:08
Speaker 3: and I know the Rays will have home field advantage
39:10
Speaker 3: there and they're good at home. I still don't think
39:12
Speaker 3: the Yankees are going to lose that series. I don't
39:13
Speaker 3: trust the Rays. I don't trust small ball. I don't
39:17
Speaker 3: think they're the better team in that matchup. No, I
39:20
Speaker 3: just don't see it. I don't know what else to
39:23
Speaker 3: tell you. And then on the other side, Cleveland, Houston,
39:27
Speaker 3: White Sox. Yeah, no, no, none of those. teams are
39:30
Speaker 3: going to win the AL. Okay. It's whoever wins Yankees raise.
39:34
Speaker 3: If they don't win the AL, I would be shocked.
39:36
Speaker 3: Although I guess you could argue that with Cleveland's pitching,
39:38
Speaker 3: I guess that gives them a shot, but yeah, I
39:42
Speaker 3: don't like anything that I'm seeing here. But anyway, the
39:45
Speaker 3: money is coming in on the Red Sox, 55% of tickets,
39:47
Speaker 3: 67% of the cash on them. I mean, They have
39:51
Speaker 3: to win. They're facing elimination here, and they are an
39:53
Speaker 3: underdog here by a decent amount, and maybe the argument
39:56
Speaker 3: is with a close pitching matchup like this, they shouldn't
39:59
Speaker 3: be that big of an underdog, but I don't think
40:01
Speaker 3: they're going to win this game. Even though I think
40:03
Speaker 3: both pitchers are good, I think the Yankees have the
40:05
Speaker 3: edge there, and I think they currently, at this point,
40:09
Speaker 3: due to the Red Sox injuries, I think the Yankees
40:10
Speaker 3: have the better bullpen as well. So, yeah, I don't
40:14
Speaker 3: like it at all. But my lean in that game
40:16
Speaker 3: would be the under, and then I would slightly lean
40:19
Speaker 3: towards the Yankees. But I think the under is probably
40:22
Speaker 3: the better way to look at that game. And then
40:24
Speaker 3: we have Cubs-San Diego. San Diego embarrassed the Cubs yesterday.
40:27
Speaker 2: 8-0.
40:30
Speaker 3: I liked San Diego in that game. I kind of
40:31
Speaker 3: liked the over, and I think it wound up going
40:33
Speaker 3: over with San Diego just doing it by themselves because
40:36
Speaker 3: both pitchers had bad matchup numbers, and that's why I
40:39
Speaker 3: kind of shied away from it. But San Diego has
40:41
Speaker 3: the better bullpen over the Cubs here. San Diego's been
40:44
Speaker 3: a really hot team recently. Their offense has definitely been
40:47
Speaker 3: good recently, and the Cubs' offense, while they were one
40:51
Speaker 3: of the top offenses during the regular season... San Diego
40:55
Speaker 3: has the hotter offense right now, at least, so they
40:58
Speaker 3: can compete offensively with the Cubs here. And obviously they
41:02
Speaker 3: did yesterday. Like I said, I did not like Boyd
41:05
Speaker 3: in that game yesterday, even though he's good on the road.
41:08
Speaker 3: He's not good against the Cubs, although I thought King
41:10
Speaker 3: would give up something. Because, you know, even though I
41:13
Speaker 3: like him, I like his numbers. Advanced analytics guys don't
41:16
Speaker 3: really love him, and his numbers against the Cubs weren't
41:18
Speaker 3: that good, but whatever. 8-0 win for San Diego. Chicago... Remember, though,
41:23
Speaker 3: they were having to travel to the West Coast for
41:25
Speaker 3: a late-night game. You know how I talk about how
41:26
Speaker 3: that's a bad spot, having to adjust your biological clock.
41:30
Speaker 3: But now the Cubs have done that because they've been
41:32
Speaker 3: out there for a day, and they might be in
41:34
Speaker 3: a little bit of a bounce-back spot here this time,
41:36
Speaker 3: the Cubs. So I like San Diego less in this
41:39
Speaker 3: game than I did in yesterday's game. But I still
41:43
Speaker 3: don't know if I like the Cubs necessarily here because
41:47
Speaker 3: I think the offenses are kind of evenly matched at
41:50
Speaker 3: this point because San Diego has been– better recently but
41:53
Speaker 3: the cubs were the better one over the course of
41:54
Speaker 3: the season uh san diego does have a better bullpen
41:58
Speaker 3: kevin gaussman is getting the start for the cubs i
42:00
Speaker 3: mean this is kind of why they traded for him
42:03
Speaker 3: he's been around for a long time he's got playoff
42:05
Speaker 3: experience you know we'll see if that can uh helped
42:08
Speaker 3: the cubs here he was not that good this season
42:11
Speaker 3: though 4.51 era although his 1.27 whip does kind of
42:15
Speaker 3: indicate his era should be a little bit lower than
42:17
Speaker 3: that gaussman was not good on the road though 5.4
42:20
Speaker 3: road era that's not a good sign he was pretty
42:24
Speaker 3: good in his last two starts three of his last
42:26
Speaker 3: four starts were good and his command was good over
42:29
Speaker 3: his last few starts even though he uh Even though
42:32
Speaker 3: his team lost the last three, it wasn't exactly his fault,
42:36
Speaker 3: except one of them he did bad against Milwaukee, but
42:38
Speaker 3: the other ones he did all right. So what do
42:40
Speaker 3: we think we're going to get out of Gaussman here?
42:42
Speaker 3: I don't know, because this is a pitcher-friendly park here,
42:44
Speaker 3: so maybe it won't be the worst road atmosphere for him.
42:48
Speaker 3: His numbers against San Diego are mediocre. They have a.
42:51
Speaker 3: 272 average against him, 737 OPS. Those numbers are average,
42:56
Speaker 3: I would say. He doesn't really have the upper hand
42:59
Speaker 3: over them, and they don't really have the upper hand
43:00
Speaker 3: over him either. He does have a good strikeout walk
43:03
Speaker 3: ratio against them. He usually does have that 52 to
43:06
Speaker 3: 10 strikeout walk ratio Gaussman. He doesn't usually walk a
43:11
Speaker 3: lot of guys and he does get a decent amount
43:12
Speaker 3: of strikeouts, but he gives up too many hits. That's
43:16
Speaker 3: kind of his thing. And that's in two under two
43:18
Speaker 3: at bats, by the way, against, uh, San Diego. I
43:23
Speaker 3: don't know what to think, man. Um, You know, I
43:26
Speaker 3: think Gaussman might deliver an okay start here. And then
43:29
Speaker 3: we have another playoff experience pitcher going on the other
43:32
Speaker 3: side for San Diego. They have Nick Pavetta pitching. He's
43:35
Speaker 3: got playoff experience as well. He missed most of the
43:38
Speaker 3: season with an injury. He came back basically just in
43:40
Speaker 3: time for the playoffs. And he was pitching well. He's
43:43
Speaker 3: pitched well since he's come back. 2.86 ERA on the season. 1.01 whip.
43:50
Speaker 3: His home road splits are, I would say, insignificant because
43:53
Speaker 3: it's a small sample size. There's not that much of
43:55
Speaker 3: a difference there. Since he came back, the Padres won
43:59
Speaker 3: all four of his starts. But they didn't really use
44:02
Speaker 3: him that much. They were kind of ramping his pitch
44:04
Speaker 3: count up. But in his last start, he only lasted
44:07
Speaker 3: four and two-thirds against the Dodgers, but he allowed no runs,
44:10
Speaker 3: and they limited him to about 90 pitches in that one.
44:12
Speaker 3: So he was a little bit inefficient with his pitches,
44:15
Speaker 3: but he was getting a lot of strikeouts there. His
44:17
Speaker 3: strikeout rate's been good since he's come back. He's had
44:19
Speaker 3: a very low walk rate, hasn't allowed many runs at all. So, yeah,
44:23
Speaker 3: he's been good since coming back. He faced a couple
44:25
Speaker 3: of good offenses in there, but also a couple of
44:27
Speaker 3: weaker ones. Pavetta against the Cubs. His numbers are also,
44:33
Speaker 3: I would say, kind of mediocre. I would say the
44:35
Speaker 3: Cubs kind of have the upper hand against him. 107 at-bats.
44:38
Speaker 3: He does have a good strikeout walk ratio against them,
44:42
Speaker 3: 39 to 8. 252 average against is not really that high,
44:44
Speaker 3: but they do have some power hitting against them. They
44:47
Speaker 3: have seven home runs off him, two each from Conforto
44:50
Speaker 3: and Swanson, although Conforto, those are his only two hits
44:54
Speaker 3: and 13 at-bats against him. Well, 13 if you don't
44:58
Speaker 3: count the couple of walks that he has. 809 OPS
45:01
Speaker 3: against for Pavetta against the Cubs. So I would prefer
45:05
Speaker 3: to be on the over in this game. Again, I
45:08
Speaker 3: think both pitchers, a little bit questionable as far as
45:11
Speaker 3: their matchup numbers are concerned. The total's pretty low, although
45:14
Speaker 3: you're not getting the 7 like you were yesterday, except
45:16
Speaker 3: maybe DK looks like they might have the 7, but
45:19
Speaker 3: it's very heavily juiced to the over. It's mostly 7.5s here.
45:25
Speaker 3: I still think that might be the right lean here, though.
45:27
Speaker 3: I mean, you do have two capable offenses here, too.
45:30
Speaker 3: And I think the pitchers, given that they got kind
45:32
Speaker 3: of mediocre matchup numbers here, although the pitchers have been
45:37
Speaker 3: pitching reasonably well recently, though, especially Pavetta. 85% of tickets,
45:42
Speaker 3: 92% of the cash on the over. So it's a
45:45
Speaker 3: public over. Maybe some of the money is kind of
45:47
Speaker 3: joining the public there. If you force me to play
45:50
Speaker 3: that game, I do think that's what I would do.
45:51
Speaker 3: I think I would be leaning over the 7.5 there.
45:53
Speaker 3: 66% of tickets, 55% of the cash on San Diego.
45:58
Speaker 3: So the money is actually fading San Diego here. I
46:01
Speaker 3: think some of it is just the price. San Diego
46:04
Speaker 3: at about minus 130, something down from minus 140. Cubs,
46:08
Speaker 3: you know, as an underdog with their season on the
46:10
Speaker 3: line here. But I don't know, man. I mean, you know,
46:13
Speaker 3: I picked San Diego to win this series in my bracket.
46:16
Speaker 3: San Diego's been a very good home team, by the way.
46:18
Speaker 3: Let's not forget that. San Diego's home record is actually
46:21
Speaker 3: really good. 51-30 at home, and the Cubs are only
46:25
Speaker 3: 43-38 on the road. So Cubs are kind of a
46:28
Speaker 3: mediocre road team, and San Diego's a very good home team.
46:33
Speaker 3: So that was another factor here in taking San Diego here,
46:36
Speaker 3: but mostly it was because the public was on Chicago.
46:39
Speaker 3: Although maybe this is the one situation where the public's
46:43
Speaker 3: not really going to be on Chicago because you've got
46:46
Speaker 3: a pitcher who has kind of the lesser matchup numbers here.
46:49
Speaker 3: Both pitchers are somewhat well-known. to the public betters here
46:53
Speaker 3: and San Diego looked really good yesterday. So the Cubs
46:56
Speaker 3: might not really be in consideration for the public here
46:59
Speaker 3: in this game. Maybe that's the reason why I don't
47:03
Speaker 3: really want to do it and play the Cubs here though.
47:06
Speaker 3: You know, maybe they have the slightly better of the
47:08
Speaker 3: starting pitching. I think if you do play the Cubs,
47:10
Speaker 3: you should do it first five. Cause again, San Diego
47:14
Speaker 3: has the bullpen edge here. So if you're going to
47:17
Speaker 3: play the Cubs, I think first five is what makes
47:19
Speaker 3: the most sense. That is it, man. That's the whole
47:23
Speaker 3: baseball board. My lean in that game would be the over, though,
47:25
Speaker 3: if I was going to do anything with it. That's it, man.
47:27
Speaker 3: We've got two plays today. We're going to last-minute jump
47:31
Speaker 3: on the Washington Mystics plus the 3.5 or whatever the
47:34
Speaker 3: number is in WNBA. I think that is a legitimate
47:38
Speaker 3: zigzag spot with a good defense as a home underdog there.
47:42
Speaker 3: And then we've got the Houston Astros. First five on
47:46
Speaker 3: the run line is my other play. as the more
47:49
Speaker 3: experienced team with a much more experienced pitcher with the
47:52
Speaker 3: better matchup numbers. I think that gives them the edge.
47:54
Speaker 3: Hopefully we start off the baseball playoffs with a good
47:58
Speaker 3: play there. We'll see. My baseball playoff plays tend to
48:01
Speaker 3: be a little bit sparse, but I think I did
48:03
Speaker 3: okay with them last year. So let's keep that going.
48:06
Speaker 3: I think I won throughout the playoffs last year by
48:08
Speaker 3: a little bit in baseball, so let's keep that going.
48:12
Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Thanks, everybody. Dirty Sock, Garrett.
48:15
Speaker 3: Who else was in here? Was it just you two?
48:17
Speaker 3: I think so. Thank you, guys. Learn to Tote on Twitter.
48:21
Speaker 3: Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
48:25
Speaker 3: Listen on audio as well. Get those numbers pumped up,
48:30
Speaker 3: bumped up, whatever, on audio. We had that big spike
48:33
Speaker 3: the other day. I got to check and see what
48:34
Speaker 3: the numbers have done the last couple of days. I
48:35
Speaker 3: think it went Back down to the normal range, though, unfortunately.
48:39
Speaker 3: Maybe with a slight increase, but let's get those numbers
48:42
Speaker 3: going on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. I like these days where
48:47
Speaker 3: I don't have that much to talk about, man, but
48:48
Speaker 3: Thursday is coming, so we'll have a little bit more
48:50
Speaker 3: to talk about tomorrow. The NHL card is going to
48:52
Speaker 3: get bigger, or board and card, I guess, is going
48:56
Speaker 3: to get bigger as we get more into the season.
48:59
Speaker 3: And we have some football tomorrow, so... Haven't decided what
49:03
Speaker 3: I want. I know what I like in the NFL
49:05
Speaker 3: game tomorrow. I like one of the sides in the
49:07
Speaker 3: NFL game tomorrow. I don't know if it's going to
49:09
Speaker 3: be enough to make a play out of it, though.
49:11
Speaker 3: But I really don't like the NFL board at all.
49:14
Speaker 3: But as Mr. Thursday Night, I don't know. I seem
49:17
Speaker 3: to be gauging these uh isolated primetime games pretty well
49:21
Speaker 3: in the NFL here which is usually the case because
49:24
Speaker 3: I don't know just I can isolate and wrap my
49:26
Speaker 3: head around it a little bit better but I don't
49:28
Speaker 3: know also when you fade the public in the primetime
49:31
Speaker 3: games it's you're more likely to win than fading them
49:34
Speaker 3: in some random like afternoon game because there's more volume
49:38
Speaker 3: on those primetime games. So the public, I think, loses
49:40
Speaker 3: a little bit more of those than ordinary games because
49:44
Speaker 3: the books know how much of the public is going
49:46
Speaker 3: to be betting those games. So they jack the prices
49:49
Speaker 3: up that they know the public are going to be taking,
49:51
Speaker 3: which are like the favorites pretty much and the overs.
49:55
Speaker 3: All right. Anyway, what else? Yeah, we're on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
49:58
Speaker 3: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube. You
50:02
Speaker 3: can check that out. Patreon.com slash LearnToToe to support me there.
50:05
Speaker 3: It's all in the link tree, which will be in
50:07
Speaker 3: the description as well. And LoserCast, we had a new
50:10
Speaker 3: episode last night. That was fun. Our guest had to bail,
50:15
Speaker 3: but we had a good episode last night, I think.
50:20
Speaker 3: I think that's going to do it again. I keep
50:21
Speaker 3: mentioning the G-Spot podcast, but, you know, it seems to
50:24
Speaker 3: be not a whole lot of drive to do it
50:27
Speaker 3: now that our guys are all injured. So I don't know.
50:29
Speaker 3: It is the Jameis Winston era. And the Giants, you know,
50:32
Speaker 3: they do have another winnable game this week. So I
50:35
Speaker 3: don't know. We will see. That's going to do it. Peace.
50:43
Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
50:47
Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
50:51
Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone.
51:00
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold.
51:04
Speaker 2: On, not tonight. Not now. Hold on.
51:11
Speaker 1: Hold on. Let me pull you out.
51:17
Speaker 2: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
51:25
Speaker 2: Hold on.
51:28
Speaker 1: Hold on, stay with me now Hold on, hold on
51:39
Speaker 1: You're still here now guitar solo