Latest / IMI Podcasts / Antigua May Stop Selling Its Citizenship

Transcript

Antigua May Stop Selling Its Citizenship · IMI Podcasts

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: If Antiguan Barbuda goes on selling its citizenship, every Antiguan could need a visa to visit 29 European countries.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Its Prime Minister now says the program will likely be suspended, and Europe wants that commitment by November 12th.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Four other Caribbean programs face the same two options: hold one of their citizenships or planning to apply.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We'll weigh both options, what each one costs, and the country that went on selling anyway.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: It started at a technical meeting in the week of October 19th between European Union representatives and Eastern Caribbean officials.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: Two options went on the table.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Option one, go on selling citizenship by investment, or CBI, and risk losing visa-free travel to Europe's Schengen area.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Or option two, commit by November 12th to suspending the program.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Five members of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, or OECS, sell citizenship this way.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: They are Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Kitts and Nevis, and St.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Lucia.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Then Antigua's Prime Minister went on the radio.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: On Point FM's Brown and Brown show on Saturday, October 24th, Gaston Brown said preliminary cabinet discussions favor suspension.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Ministers, he added, have made no final decision.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Brown wants the five to answer together, and he called a meeting of OECS heads of government for the last week of October.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: That plan has a limit.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Visa waivers with the EU are bilateral, so if the leaders cannot agree, each government decides on its own.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Christopher Willis, managing partner at Latitude Group, calls this a watershed moment for Brown and the region's CBI industry.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: In his view, any suspension must be coordinated across all five jurisdictions.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Acting alone, he argues, would undermine the region's commitment to harmonization.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: The challenge, as Willis frames it, is protecting Schengen access without losing a vital source of national revenue.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: So why the hard line now?
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: For years, Brussels needed proof of a specific problem before it could pull a country's visa waiver.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: That changed on December 30, 2025, when the EU's revised visa suspension mechanism took effect.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Under it, an investor citizenship program is, by itself, grounds for suspending visa-free access.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: The rule targets citizenship granted in exchange for predetermined payments or investments, with no genuine link to the country.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Antigua's government put the effect plainly.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Grounds for suspension, regardless of how well it is managed.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: In December 2025, the Commission's eighth report on the mechanism went further.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Its annexes urged the five Caribbean programs to tighten vetting, pending the discontinuation of those programs.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: So, would reforms save the programs?
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: St.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Lucia's Deputy Prime Minister, Ernest Hilaire, says his government did what Brussels asked, down to a regional regulator.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Then, he said in July, came a change in the mood of the Commission.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Europe had already shut down a program inside its own borders.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: In April 2025, the EU's Court of Justice ruled against Malta's investor citizenship route.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Malta repealed it that July.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Mark Brantley, the leader of Nevis, drew the lesson in one line.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: If the EU do that to their own, he asked, what would it do to St.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Kitts and Nevis?
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Antigua and Barbuda or Grenada?
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Antigua sounded nothing like this in June.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: On June 25, 2026, Magnus Brunner, the EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration, signed a formal letter to its Prime Minister.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: It asked Antigua and Barbuda to phase out its program by June 1, 2028, with a 24-month transition.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: The other four CBI states received similar letters, according to Antigua's government.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Brown refused to budge.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: With or without those visa-free arrangements, our CIP program continues, he said.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: A July 6 statement from his office went further.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: His government will not be pressured into a unilateral phase-out, it said.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: None of the EU's offers, it added, were quantified, binding, or explicitly framed as replacement revenues.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Four days later, the five heads of government met in Rosso, Dominica, and agreed to send a high-level mission to Brussels.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: By July 14th, the tone had begun to shift.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Brown told the House of Representatives that saving visa-free access to the EU could mean discussing whether to suspend the program.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: In September, Brown and St.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Lucia's Prime Minister met Brunner in New York.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: No change to the 2028 deadline came out of it.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: Later that month, the five asked Brussels for more time to reply.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: They hoped October's talks would show whether the EU might cap applications or exclude certain nationalities during a transition.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: So the islands had until 2028 to wind down?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: The October meeting answered with a much closer date, November 12th, weeks ahead of the Commission's December 2026 report on the mechanism.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Option 2, suspending the program, has a price of its own.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Brown has said the program brought in more than 1.4 billion Eastern Caribbean dollars in 11 years, about 518 million US dollars.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: For this year alone, Antigua and Barbuda's 2026 budget projects 157 million Eastern Caribbean dollars in CIP inflows, about 58 million US dollars.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: It makes the program one of the government's largest sources of non-tax revenue.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: According to the government, it has funded hospitals, schools, infrastructure, and disaster recovery efforts.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Antigua is not the most exposed island either.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Dominica's opposition, Dominica Freedom Party, says the 2025 to 2026 budget projected 56.7% of recurrent revenue from CBI.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Take that money out, and the party's own budget figures leave a gap of roughly 224 million Eastern Caribbean dollars a year.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Option 1 has a price, too.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Every citizen, including native-born Antiguans and Barbudans, would need a visa before visiting 29 European countries, and the program would lose its main selling point.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: For many investors, visa-free Europe is what makes the citizenship worth six figures.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Under Option 1, Europe would not be the first partner to restrict Antiguan travelers.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Canada has required visas from Antiguan and Barbudan citizens since June 2017, citing the integrity of the country's travel documents.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Since 2023, travelers with a valid U.S.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: non-immigrant visa or a recent Canadian visa can fly in with an electronic travel authorization.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Washington moved next.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: A White House proclamation partly suspended the entry of Antiguan and Barbudan nationals from January 1, 2026.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: It covers immigrant visas and the main visitor, student, and exchange visas, citing the country's history of CBI without residency.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: Under a later partial settlement, Antiguans who already had U.S.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: visas as of December 31st can travel as before.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: That leaves Europe as the program's biggest travel prize, and Europe's price for it is the program itself.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: Brown's government knew the EU letters were coming before they arrived and had already begun talks across the region.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Investors rarely get that head start.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: In IMI Sovereigns, our members' club for investors, we go live once a month with the rumors and inside intel shaping the market.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: Members also get quarterly private briefings on program changes and policy risks, plus direct access to vetted specialists through Ask the Experts.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: We sell no programs and take no referral fees.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Join at IMIDaily.com slash IMISovereigns and use the code SOV10 for 10% off your first month.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Vanuatu shows how option one plays out.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: Brussels suspended visa-free travel for Vanuatu nationals in 2022 over its CBI program.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of 2024, the EU had moved Vanuatu back onto its visa required list, the first country ever taken off the visa-free list.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Even so, Vanuatu went on selling citizenship.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: Raphael Cintron, CEO of Wealthy Expat, said in July that the Caribbean could follow that path.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: In his reading, the islands would cut prices and continue, or market more aggressively like Vanuatu.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Calvin S.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Maslumian, founding partner at Plan B Outbound Migration Consultancy, sees the cost of that path.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Mandatory Schengen visas, he says, would put Caribbean citizens on the same boat as those of Vanuatu, Nauru, and Sao Tomei and Principe.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Caribbean pricing, in his view, may have to adjust to remain competitive.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, the programs may need other routes to citizenship, such as property bought at market prices outside government-approved projects.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Inside the industry, the deadline has split opinion.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Nuri Katz, president of Apex Capital Partners, says Europe has put the islands in a no-win position.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: Losing visa-free travel to Europe, he argues, effectively would mean the end of the CIP anyway.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Katz wants to see whether the EU offers a quid pro quo to help make up for the lost income.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: He calls the deadline one more instance of Europe pressing other countries to do what it wants.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Europe, in his words, should first look at the very profound immigration problems that Europe itself has.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Sam Bayat, founder and chairman at Bayat Legal Services, points the other way.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: We must be prepared to acknowledge our own industry's shortcomings rather than simply blame the European Union, he says.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Bayat cites years of allegations about CBI screening and program management.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Justified or not, the cumulative effect, he argues, has strengthened the EU's case for restrictions.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: The EU's concerns are legitimate, in his view, though its response may be disproportionate for small island states.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: His answer is a negotiated framework, with independently verified due diligence, regular audits, and penalties for violations.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: In return, the EU would recognize demonstrable reforms.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Joseph Boll, founder and CEO at Frederick Capital, puts the problem in one phrase.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: The industry let visa-free travel to Europe become the entire product.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: Families he speaks with want a credible plan B, a place for retirement or family life.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: For Boll, a suspension should be a wake-up call.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: To him, the region needs to market the life, the jurisdiction, and the long-term option.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Any travel perk another government can remove, in his view, makes a weak foundation for a citizenship.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Brantley is already planning for the day after.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: What do we do after June of 2028?
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: He asked in July.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: His answers included geothermal power, agriculture, and private investment, such as the Nevis Airport project.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Whichever option the five choose, one question has no answer yet.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody has said whether a November 12th commitment would pause new applications at once or start the EU's proposed phase-out through June 2028.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: For families with files already in process, that difference decides everything.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Willis wants clarity for applicants whose files are already being processed.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: Europe's own next step comes in December 2026.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: That is when the Commission's report on the visa suspension mechanism is due, and the island's answers feed into it.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: In July, Patrick Peters, CEO of Client Referrals, saw the two-year window as room for ongoing negotiations and a test of Europe's new travel screening.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: If they wanted to cancel visa-free access, they could do so today, he said.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Even a deal may not bring back travel as it was.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: The EU's entry-exit system is replacing passport stamps with biometric checks, and its ETIS travel authorization is set to become mandatory in 2027.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Got a Caribbean citizenship mainly for Europe?
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Cintron's advice in July was to diversify.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: His options?
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: A European Golden Visa or a second citizenship obtained outside CBI.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to an expert first.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can find an experienced investment migration professional at imidaly.com slash IMI Professionals.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: We'll report what the five decide.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: For the outcome and every rule change after it, subscribe to IMI's free weekly newsletter at imidaly.com/slash newsletter.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: A suspended program is one risk.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: Losing a citizenship you have already paid for is another.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: In the video on your screen, we rank which citizenships by investment get revoked and how secure each one is.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: Subscribe and turn on notifications to see what the five decide next.