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Using the $/WAR metric to understand the Detroit Tigers · Tiger Territory: A Detroit Tigers Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: And welcome into another episode of Tiger Territory. Part of
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the Foul Territory, I work a Troy Tiger's podcast. I'm
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Karen's Deckley with me as always as a man who's
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: never been accused of being a man child.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: It's really one or the other. He's Conny Stavin Eggan.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: How you doing.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: I'm doing good, Karen. I already wish everyone happy holidays,
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Merry Christmas. Last episode so I don't know where. Hopefully
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: you guys all survived Christmas Day? Right. It's a tough.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: It can be stressful depending on what you're doing. So
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: I hope everyone out there is doing good. This episode
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: is gonna be a little bit chill, nothing crazy, but
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: we're gonna go over best values, best bargains. You know,
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: did you get some cheap stuff for Christmas? Did you
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: get something too expensive? Maybe you're mad that you're spoused
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: to spend so much. We'll kind of try to parlay
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: that into a little Tiger's talk for you guys.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So, like the inspiration behind this is that, look,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: you know, there's obviously gonna be a lot of sales
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: going on today and moving forward as an inventory, you know,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: is you know, unsold surplus inventory. Stores got to make
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: room for products of the future, right, So I was
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: kind of curious, Like it was like a little bit
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: of a thought exercise. It's like, who, like, who is
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: the best bargain on this Tiger's team, you know, and
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: and because you know, like it's a young team, and
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: it's a cost controlled team, and and those guys tend
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: to be what we would think of just like, all right,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: who's who's getting you who you're getting the most out
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: of your dollar for. But then you look at some
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: of these numbers and not necessarily it was a little surprising.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So before we kind of before we kind of dive
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: into that, Cody, we're looking at salaries, looking at payroll,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: or actually do a pretty good job of not like
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: focusing so much on payroll. I want to give us
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: a compliment as we talk a lot about payroll in
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: this episode.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Uh I live here in Texas.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Obviously, one of the talks of the Rangers is that
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: they're trying to get below the salary the luxury tax threshold.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: They've obviously made some moves to that effect this offseason.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So the Tigers are obviously not a tax team. But
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: is this something that you could envision this iteration of
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Tiger's brass diving into because I think for as long
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: as that exists, that's going to be something that we
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: should kind of have in the back of our minds
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: whenever we tend to talk about payroll and what the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Tigers can or would be willing to do.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: I've long said I don't really expect the Tigers to
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: be a luxury tax team, a collective bargaining tax team
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: anytime soon under Chris Ilch. Now maybe that doesn't mean never,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: and because I think they're probably capable of spending a
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: little bit more than they do. I just don't think
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: it's being run like a team that wants to pay
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: the luxury tax. And maybe that's okay. Plenty of teams
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: do just fine without paying the luxury tax. Now, some
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: teams pay a massive luxury tax bill and win the
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: World Series, but that's kind of another discussion. So the
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: short answer to that question, I think is no, the
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: Tiger still have what'd you say, Krean is sixty three
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: million left before they hit the first CBT threshold.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Of course, that's a lot of money back, sixty just
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a hair over sixty three million.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: So that's a lot of money. Their highest paid players
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Javier Baiez, we are nearing the end of his time
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: in Detroit two more years. The second highest paid player
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: is Trek Scruble, He's about to be gone. Labor Tourres
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: is your third highest paid or Schooble's projected anywhere from
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: about seventeen to twenty two million dollars in arbitration, depending
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: what you're going off of. Glabor Torrez makes twenty two
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: one year deal, he's gone, Jack Flaherty one year deal,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: He's likely to be gone. So you project this payroll
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: out for the future, and the Tigers are going to
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: get cheaper before they get more expensive. Assuming Scooble walks
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: and free agency, they're going to have plenty of room
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: to hand out money. They could even sign a couple
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: more big contracts and not be close to touching the
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: collective bargaining tax. We know how focused they are on
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: youth or on development, and in a way, I think
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: that's going to make it where they don't even really
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: have to worry about this as it is now, with
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: Tours and Schooble and buy as in Flairty, they could
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: still sign two more dudes to thirty million dollar contracts
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: and be under the luxury tax. So the money really
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: is not a concern for the Tigers, which you could
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: view as well, why aren't they spending more? Or you
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: could just view as I'm sure Scott Harris views it,
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: they have plenty of flexibility years into the future to
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: do whatever they want based on the needs of the
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: team and things of that nature.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, needs of the team kind of a phrase that
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: holds a lot of water in your statement there, Cody,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: because we know the Tigers are a good team. We've
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: officially gotten to that threshold. We know they are a
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: contender to the extent of which that they've shown the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: past two years. And I think they're good enough. When
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: you have school until you can never kind of rule
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: anything out per se. But they ought But if there
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: was a needs of the team to kind of go
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: all in, as we've discussed, we would have probably seen
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: some sort of indication of that. Buy now and when
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: you look at it, you know, it's just kind of
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: down the line. It is a rather balanced like team,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: and especially with youth and with you know, more youth.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: On the way.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: This is this is it's funny sometimes you know something
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: you just like write it down and then you see
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: like the Scott Harris and Company like vision, Like when
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: you write it down on a piece of pay it's like, Okay,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I see why he's doing this again. I would still
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: prefer maybe something a little bit off script, but in
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: terms of the things being you know, things going as scripted,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: that's exactly what the Tigers have in toe. So why
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: don't we just kind of go ahead and start with
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: with Trek Scoogle because that's that's that's the thing Cody
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: is that we know he's going to be probably by
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: this time next year. It'll be his choice whenever he
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: makes that decision, but probably by this time next year
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: he will be a much more wealthy individual than he
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: is right now. But he made what ten million dollars
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: this past year, and in a season that it was
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: his second in the back to back Cy Young run
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: that he's on, and he's projected, like you said, anywhere
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: from seventeen to twenty two. However that works out in
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: arbitration for the twenty twenty sixth season, we're gonna rely
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: heavily on the fangrass War dollar metric where and you
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: can explain this better than eye codey, but basically just
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: puts a dollar figure to their to their war output
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: if they were if they were in an open market
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: free agent market, what they would be worth for the year.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Dereks Google fifty three point seven million according to fangraphs,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: makes ten and this is all last season numbers. Makes
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: ten look like quite a bargain. Derek School is a bargain,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: and he's might be a bargain still in a year
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: from now.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying it's an interesting lesson the dollars per
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: war metric here, and basically it just assigns a dollar
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: value based on what your war was. It lives off
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: the idea that one win above replacement is worth somewhere
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: between eight to ten million dollars on the open market.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: You go look at free agent deals. It's remarkable in
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: the modern baseball business world how closely contracts tend to
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: align with war or projected war. So it's not quite
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: that simple as like eight times too, this guy's worth sixteen,
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: but especially at the baseline, that's pretty much how this
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: figure is devised. And one thing you will often see
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: is the best players in the game per this metric
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: are undervalued in terms of what they get paid. Trek
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: Scoble in terms of war was worth fifty three point
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: one million dollars last season. And star players, So if
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: you're worth five war, you know you're talking being worth
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: forty million. And there are only a select few number
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: of guys whose salary even approaches a figure like that.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: But it's also why guys in the middle of the
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: market get paid a lot. Right, you talk two to
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: three war, well you're worth you know, sixteen to twenty
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: four million, which sounds like a lot. It sounds like
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: a lot, but that's that's why you see pitchers like
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: a Jack Flaherty getting paid what they get paid. That's
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: why that's why these kind be tough. But you talk
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: about being sixty three million dollars under the luxury tax
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: and the Tigers maybe not wanting to sign bad contracts.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: If you want support for the idea the Tigers and
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: every other team should spend a lot more, go look
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: at dollars per war. You sign a guy to a
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: thirty million dollar deal who's a good player, there's a
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: decent chance that that's gonna end up being a bargain
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: for you. And we're not even talking about what that
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: can do for your merch sales, for your gate sales,
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: for things of that nature. That's all just way of saying,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Trek Scuoble right now, best bargain on the Tigers.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So, like this is something that when you when you
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: kind of when you when you think about it from
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: a business sense, like it makes a it makes a
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: lot of sense that like Trek Scooble would want to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: maximize his dollar, it's Morscoe would want to maximize their
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: dollar a lot man.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Because we do have this thing called Schooble Day.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: In in Detroit, and an opposing ballparks have school days
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: as well, and then it just so happens that Trek
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: school will be put pitching on Sunday night baseball and
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: and and you know, and again merch sales, you know,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: the bibbleheads, I mean, you know all these things that
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: kind of contribute and make him like really good for
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the Detroit Tigers economy if you would. And so if
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I'm if I'm Trek, if i'm his representatives, like, look,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I just want to get what I'm old and what
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I am owed is a lot of money being that
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I have been on a cost control structure literally my
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: entire career. So when people kind of get worried about,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: like you know, these millionaires being spoiled, you know all
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: this stuff.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Like that's why, like that that that right.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: There is why, because you know, every person just wants
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: to be paid their worse. So well, before we move on,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: this is as good a time as any, Cody. It
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: is time for our unsponsored yet contractually obligate at.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: A Trek's Schoolgle update.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: And the update is that, you know, baseball, professional baseball
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: has been played a long time, and you think there's
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: not that many unique circumstances that you could find yourself
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: in as as kind of like like almost like mundane
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: as the Tigers find themselves in with Trek Scooble in
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: terms of like, really good player coming up at the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: end of his contract, what are you gonna do?
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: That's tales all this time.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: But then when you look to narrow it down for
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: kind of like specific comps for the schoolbl situation, it's
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult and there's not really a
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: lot of apples to apples here. So you wrote about
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: this earlier this week. It's in the athletic it could
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: just kind of like elaborate on sort of like trying
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: to find like a real comp for what the Tigers
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in school are going through.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Actually not as easy as you.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: Think, No, not at all. It was really a look
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: at the history of players who have been traded in
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: their primes before hitting free agency. Of course, not every
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: there have been plenty of players who simply walked, and
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: some have signed extensions. But this was kind of look
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: at the more high profile trades Mookie Batts, Juan Soto,
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: et cetera, just kind of like, can we can we
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: learn anything from these situations and how they unfolded, And
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: especially with Scoobel an ace a starting pitcher in their
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: prime pre free agency, I think it's very hard to
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: find a guy like that who has been part of
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: a marquee trade. You point to Corbyn Burns a couple
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: of years ago. I think Schoobol's more dominant than Burns
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: has ever been, and Corbyn Burns played for the Brewers,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: the team that's kind of made a penchant for trading
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: players of that elk and getting value while they can.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: The closest comparison I really found was probably Pedro Martinez
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: in nineteen ninety seven. He was coming off his first
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: of three Cy Young's, the expost traded him because they
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: knew they weren't going to be able to extend him. Now,
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: nineteen ninety seven was a long time ago. There was
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: no qualifying offer, There was no mechanism for the Expos
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: to even get a draft pick, and the Expos weren't
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: very good. They had won seventy eight games. They had
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: a pretty cheap ownership. I talked to Jim Batty, who
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: is the GM way back in the day, and he
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: basically evinced a tough spot to be in, you know,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: he tried to do the best he could. He got
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: Carl Provano and Tony Armas, two pitchers they liked back then,
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: didn't really work out. Paydro goes to Boston to Cy
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Young's a World Series. The rest is history. So but
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: even that example is different because there is a qualifying
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: offer structure. Now the Tigers are good, and as much
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: as the Tigers might not be a luxury tax team
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: and might still have very little shot to extend a
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: Scott Bors client in Trek Skuble, they're not faced with
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: the same level of payroll restrictions as those Montreal Expos were.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Looking deeper into this like Corbyn Burns who won that trade.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know. The Orioles got a year. Burns made
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: the playoffs bounce in the first round. The Brewers got
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Joey Ortiz who played well for them, and DL Hall
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: they made. They've made the playoffs two years in a row,
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: where Te's was only good one of these years. DL
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: Hall has not really hit. They're disaster trades, like the
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Mookie bets one. It's called it a disaster. It's like, well,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: alex Erdugo was worth like eight war but trading a
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: player Mookie bets Ilk, they clearly did not get a
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: lot in return. Sodo going from the Nationals to the Padres,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the Nationals got a freaking hall Man, one of the
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: best trades ever, and they're still bad. Mike Rizzo just
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: got fired because they had too many other holes in
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: their organization. Yeah yeah, yeah, they're now trying to trade
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: McKinzie gore. So I don't think there's like I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: what I learned from doing this story is that every
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: example has little ins and outs and caveats and differences
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: that it's hard to make the Schoogle situation. The Tigers
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: face now a one to one comparison for any of them,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: even other players in Tiger's history Max Scherzer, who walked
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: and became a free agent under under Scott Boris, Justin Ferlander,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: who had signed an extension, not completely the same situation
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: as what the Tiger's face right now with Jrek School.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would even also point out, you know,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: aj Hinch had mentioned this. I believe it was at
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: winter meetings, you know, having gone paraphrasing here, gone through
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: this with Garrett Cole in Houston. Gary Cole obviously signed
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: as a free agent with the with with the Yankees,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: but he also had never been a cy Young winner
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: prior to a couple of years ago with the Yankees.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: So again we're talking of accolades here, We're talking about
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: status here, and again the teams, where the teams are at.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: It's actually a largely complex situation. So that is your
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Trek schouogbl becase you' actually obligated yet unsponsored update of
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: December twenty twenty five. All right, let's get to some
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: other guys here. Co I think we could go kind
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of you mentioned Flarity there. People accused Flarity of being
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: over overpaid at times. He's pretty He's pretty in line
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: with the market if you you know, based on this measure,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: he was he was a couple of War Player. He
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: made twenty five million last year, He's gonna get twenty
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: million this year, and the fangrast metric has him at
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: twenty point three. Seems pretty chalky actually, So you know,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: like like it if you feel wronged as a fan
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: of the Jack Flaherty deal based on this, it ill
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: kind of feels like, you know, market value, uh, you know,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: then you get into like, okay, well, Casey Mai is
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: nineteen million there. You can see this graphic if you're
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: watching on YouTube. Casey myes obviously All Star two point
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: four war Player in twenty twenty five. He's only slotted
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to make five five million, five point four million this
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: next season. So like you're getting tremendous value there as well.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: And even will vest will vest one point eight war
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: fourteen million according to fangrass in terms of war dollar
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: a lot. Men, So even guys you don't necessarily feel
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that great about Cody, I guess the point is, I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: mean you're getting you're getting a good ROI on this
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: pitching staff based on what we saw this past year.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Because I tell you how you know?
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: You know good pitching is hard to find, as they say,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and just how valuable it really.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: Remember when I was talking about, like why if the
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: Tigers weren't going to get a Ranger Suarez or Michael
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: King or whoever, that maybe Drew Anderson wasn't the worst
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: thing in the world. This is pretty much why would
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: you rather pay twenty million for another Jack Flaherty or
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: pay seven million and hope that a guy can be
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: a two war starting pitcher for you? That's a little
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: bit of a gamble maybe that you know. I don't
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: want to try to sound too much like I'm justifying
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: teams not paying players, but just like, if you want
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: to understand the logic behind why the Tigers are operating
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: the way they are, why a lot of teams operate
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: the way they do. This is why starting pitching is
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: really expensive. Man, If you are a slightly above average starter,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: those guys get paid a lot of money. Those contracts
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: don't always work out great for teams like Flairty, I
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: think is a prime example. If he would have not
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: exercised his player option, I don't know what his market
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: would have been. I think he might have could have
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: got one twenty two forty. It just doesn't seem like
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: teams were really willing to commit to him long term,
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: or if they were, that probably would have dropped his
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: aav you know, to fourteen fifteen MILLI year. I think
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: that's why he exercised that option, knowing he's gonna get
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: a big payday and maybe can put together a good
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: year be a little more likely to get a long
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: term deal next time around. These are things we talked
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: about all the time, but sometimes just seeing that number
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: next to it helps helps it all make sense. Like
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: we could even look at Labor tourists who accept it
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: was going to go all right, yeah, take it from.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: There then well, I mean yeah, it's pretty simple because like,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: you know, Labor that his representation, like it was a
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: relatively big story even nationally in baseball. Is like every
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: like his representatives are going around the teams trying to
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: assess the market and if the market value for Labor
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: a last season, a season that he probably feels like
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: he did not finish on his best footing because of
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: the UH, because of the hernia injury, and he gets
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: a qualifying offer for twenty two million after having made
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: fifteen million the previous year, and his you know, fangraft
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: market value is twenty All of a sudden, it feels
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: it kind of becomes like a pretty simple proposition as
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: to why Labor would be one of the few players
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: that actually kind of goes this route and kind of
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: like puts off it essentially amounts to putting off a
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: true free agency experience, you know, for the second consecutive year.
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is why I've said, like, I don't
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: think the Tigers are overpaying for Glabor tourres, given that
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: it's simply one year. I think I think it's a
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: perfectly fine deal for them from that perspective, And had
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: they not signed Glabor Tores, maybe, you know, maybe they
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: could have improved the lineup as a whole. But I'm
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: sure they looked like, is this actually above market value?
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: Probably not one a one year deal. Now, I don't
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: think anyone was going to give Glabor twenty two million
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: a year for four years because he's going to age
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: and likely get a little bit worse but four years
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: from now. So that's maybe why he didn't have a
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: robust market and why he did accept the qualifying offer.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Let's go to the number one name on this list,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Dylan Dingler. Maybe the.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: We we give Riley Green, we give Spencer, we gave
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Spencer Torkls, And we've given several guys kind of like
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: pillars face of franchise, uh type like could they could
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: they get to this status? I'm looking at this right now, Cody.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: It's like, man, is Dylan Dingler kind of like the
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: epitome of this iteration of Tigers brass? Like what they
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: are going to bank on their ability to do on
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: a consistent basis because Dylan Dingler Gold Glover like a tremendous,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: tremendous season obviously.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: And Scott Harris is already on record at citing him
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: as a guy who was, like, you know, previously on
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: the team, but you know, comes into the next year
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: and becomes a different player.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Therefore it changes the outlook of the team. Uh. This
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: will probably be an outlier.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we're gonna get this kind of
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: value from some guys before. Probably not the best thing
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: to like bank on. But man thirty two and a
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: half million on the Fangrass on the Fangrass metric for
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: a mirror seven hundred and sixty two thousand dollars. That's
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good, pretty good.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: It's a pretty good value as is I don't know
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: if he'll repeat it, but as is the guy beneath him,
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Zach McKinstry, being worth twenty five point three million dollars
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: for his performance last year is kind of remarkable, And again,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: I think pretty telling about the Tigers. About this, about
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: the Scott Harris regime. Remember that first press conference when
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: Harris said, we just want to stack good baseball moves.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: When you're not signing big contracts and you're seeking value
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: again around the margins, I think it's a little easier
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: to stack these small wins, right Scott Harris. He can
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: go to his boss, Chrisilich and say, well, look at this,
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: Look at the value we got here. Look at Dyan Dingler.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: We're paying nothing he was worth, you know, twenty eight
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: thirty million dollars, whatever it was. So if you do,
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: if you did want to spin this into more of
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: a criticism of the Tigers, I do think you could
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: do that too. Because staying young, staying flexible, it keeps
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: you cheap. You're going to quote unquote win a lot
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: more of these contracts. Then maybe if you did take
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: the risks in free agency that we just talked about
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: can be actually the best values. If you're paying a
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: star player thirty million, he's actually worth sixty million. But
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: that's also where you can get something like Hobby Baias
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: who that's an underwater deal. He was worth about eleven
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: million in kind of what was considered a good season
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: for him, and he's getting paid what twenty three million plus.
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: You sign a few of those bad contracts, you don't
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: look as good, you don't look as smart as a
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: general manager. But if you stay young, you stay cheap,
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: you stay flexible, you feel like you're winning maybe the
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: economics side, and you give yourself wiggle room to do
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: different stuff in the future. So I don't know if
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: that's good or bad, but maybe it's good for job security,
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: like it or not to operate your your franchise this way.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: You know, it's a shame that Scott Harris is considered
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: like reputationally like tough to deal with among other heads
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: of front offices, because what you basically laid out is
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Scott Harris is a GMS GM.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Uh yeah, it doesn't like to lose deals. That's why
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: he's enough to deal with for other general managers.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Well look it, you know we should also mention, you know,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: the one of the bigger money deals, certainly one of
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the more like noteworthy deals that Scott Harris has put forward,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: and that's cold Keith when he signed him to that extension,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: before colke Keith had ever been a Major League baseball player,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: and Cold Keith last year and the season that again
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: did not go I don't necessarily mean this in a
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: bad way, It just literally didn't go as plan because
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: he didn't have.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: A position.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Was worth thirteen point one million for his one point
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: six war He's actually one of the more expensive guys
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: in this position player group. Obviously at three point eight million,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: he'll get paid four point three and twenty twenty six still.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: And this is why Sky Harris would sign these extensions
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: tenfold if he could in terms of the amount of them,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: is because still a bargain when you look at when
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: you look at what he was worth according to vangrafts,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: and and ideally being an ascending player who will still
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: be a good a great bargain for him, while also
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: you know, making Keith a little bit more, a little
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: bit more richer than he would be in the intermediate.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: So the key thing was interesting because a lot of
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: these guys are making less than a million, you know,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: because they're so young, going through arbitration and all that stuff,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: and you know, Keith nulled that and still still a
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: good return on investment.
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: Cookeith young still getting better obviously, has the potential to
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: be a lot better than he is. Right, he's already
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: worth thirteen million dollars and the apex of his Tigers contract,
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: he's never going to be guaranteed more than fifteen million.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: There are some incentives in his deal like win MVP,
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: which is really tough to do. Yeah, I think this
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: deal is already aging poorly for Cole Keith. Now, granted
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: he's getting paid a little bit more here in his arbiers,
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: he'd be making the league minimum and he's already pocketed
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: what you know, about six million dollars in his career.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: He had a very nice wedding recently, so good dude.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: Doing just fine. He guaranteed himself a lot of security,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: but he is already underpaid by quite a bit. And
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: that that was my issue with this contract. It wasn't
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: that he did it. It wasn't the buyout of the Arbers.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: It was just that the ceiling of the deal was
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: not very high for him. I think if I were
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: the agent, I would have wanted to push this a
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: little higher, be making five, then seven, then nine, then eleven,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: and by the end of the deal you're making you know,
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: twenty plus, whereas he's literally at age twenty four ideally
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: still improving, he's already worth about what he's gonna make
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: at the apex of his Tigers contract. It's a pretty
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: team friendly deal, man, It's a pretty team friendly deal.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: So good on Scott Harris for signing that one.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it also like Keith.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: Will obviously have to one day like have a position
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: and not regress defensively or thing that could go bad.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: And maybe he'll be pleased to be making fifteen million,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: but certainly has the potential to be worth a lot more.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: You know, if he continues to hit, it can stick
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: somewhere in the field.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, when you look at this contract before
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: he's even played in the major leagues, and then even
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: you know, coming into season when he was you know,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: obviously still such a pup, you're not really sure like
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: what those last three years will be from a decision
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: standpoint for the Tigers. Now, I'm like, can they just
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: they might Scott Harris probably just could just like send
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: that paperwork in right now.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: It's just it's hard to envision that.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: In four years, Cold Keith is not going to be
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: worth ten million dollars, you know what I mean.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: It's just like, it's just hilarious.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: Again. It's why he's very tradable, because every team's gonna
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: look at that and be like, wow, okay, but kind
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: of hilarious that anybody ever thought that Tigers were treading
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Cold Keith this offseason. Everything we just talked about with
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: Scott Harris, Do you think he's moving that deal? No?
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: No, absolutely not. Best bet, one of the best assets
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: on the team. And again, the type of player Young
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: is sending, we'll see he might even be a bigger
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: bargain this year.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Any other any others kind of standout.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I did like the torque, you know, with the revival
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: season of sorts, he he was given the eighteen point
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: four million dollar valuation made under a million this.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Past season. That's obviously gonna jump in twenty twenty six.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: I could not.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Like, this is obviously just a value metric at this
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: time last year, it was literally impossible to envision that.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, just think about it.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Dingler, McKinstry, Green, Torres, Torque, that's your top five among
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: position players right there.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Three of them would have been impossible to think. That's
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: just nuts.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: And you know, and good on Torque for putting him
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: himself in that position.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: And again maybe it bodes well for the future forum
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: we'll see.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: But Torque Torque, this might being a number one overall
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: pick and all that stuff, and then disappointing in a
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: large sense, tremendous value, still tremendous value, at least in
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Twenty twenty five, Dan Zimborski's ZIPS projection I kind of laughed,
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: He wrote, I could see Torklesen being having an OPS
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: anywhere from six hundred to nine hundred. I was like, yep, yeah,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: me too. I don't know which one is it gonna be?
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: And and then you know, you mentioned the hobby contract
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: here he's up on the books for twenty five or
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: is it twenty four million in twenty twenty six and
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: twenty four million in twenty twenty seven.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: I believe it's I believe those are the numbers.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: It goes down to it I think twenty three point
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: three million.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, and still I mean again with
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: a good season, well.
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: Treet tax payroll excuse me, All this stuff's calculated differently.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: So he made twenty five mil last year, that number
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: is going to go down to twenty four mil for
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: the final two years of his Tigers deal.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and so clearly behind. So again, like if you
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: want to understand reasoning why another year older, clearly behind
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: every all these young players or younger players, and and
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: definitely not a good return on investment if he's one
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: of the few actually that has if you want to say,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: like a negative return just based on this one on
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: this one metric here, uh So found found that noteworthy.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Of course didn't need to know that, but found that noteworthy.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: So looking at this cody, like I said, it'd be
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: at the top, Like I wanted to know, like, who's
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the best bargain here? I feel like there's just two names.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I'll we'll say three. We'll say three terror schoobl Dylan Dingler,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Zach at McKinstry. Those seem to be the leaders in
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: the clubhouse for best bargain on this Tigers team. Hard
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: as to plant Schooble, Would you do that for Dingler
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: or z Mac as the best bargain on the Detroit Tigers?
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: Are you saying over school?
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just asking.
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: No, Scooble's the best bargain far and away. He's worked
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: fifty plus million dollars. It's Scooble, although I guess does
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: the math would matth say it's Dingler because Dingler's still
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: making nothing.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, I exceeding his value.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: By so's it's actually close if Scoobl's gonna make eighteen
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: I'm not very good at math. Guys, you might want
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: to help me out with this. He's still exceeding that
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: by thirty three million dollars, So just Dingler could be close.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: If he's making what league minimum, he's still going to
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: be worth thirty one plus you know, surplus value. But no,
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: it's Scoble. The answer is Schooble, with Dingler actually very close. Second. Yeah,
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: so again, like McKinstry projected one Steamer to be worth
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: a zero point nine war ninety WRC plus last year,
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: his season kind of broke the computers. I don't think
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: they know what to do with it. But it's the
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: projection systems aren't optimistic about him repeating that for whatever
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: that's worth.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we we're gonna go over projections as we
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: close out the year and go into the new year,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: and you know, get the the team you know, starts
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: to take shape a little bit more, and and and so.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: Like that, that's what this was.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: It's like a setup for like how we get there
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: and and and sometimes you think, like, man, school is
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be you know, half a billion dollars richer in
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: the year from now, and it's like, God, is anybody
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: really worth X you think about that?
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: You know what? Yeah? Yeah, yes, yeah, he is.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Answer Yes, the answer is yeah, school bl is worth
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: whatever that dollar amount ends up being. And from just
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: an on the field perspective, and we all know the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: off the field aspects or in you know, in the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: stands off the field type stuff that that schoolgle brings
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: to the table.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: So not my money, but but I would do it.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I would do it, and I would feel good about
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: that investment. So that's my answer, and I'm sticking to it. Cody,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: anything else before we jet.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: Out of here. No, I hope this was instructive. I
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: hope we weren't just saying a bunch of numbers that
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: made no sense this whole time. I think after doing
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: this whole episode, I already kind of knew this, but
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: right now I'm walking away being like, I think the
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Tigers really value this exact type of metric we're talking about.
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: I think this plays a big role in their team building.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe too big of a role in their team building,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: but I think it's interesting to view things through that loes.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, hopefully this was a little bit educational
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: and you were able to kind of see it this way,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: and then it will kind of help shape you as
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: you look at what the team should or can do.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: So you'll follow along at.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Cody Stavenagan, at Knardis Course Decintly and at Tiger Territory
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Underscore on Twitter. We are also on YouTube. Please subscribe
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: as we try to grow this into the new year.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: We appreciate all of you, and of course you can
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: still go to Tiger Tarritor Tory shop dot com for
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: all your Tiger Territory merch needs. So for coach Davenhagen,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I am Karen Steckley. Everybody, have a great day.