Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Lazy Sunday | MLB & WNBA | 6/7/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Lazy Sunday | MLB & WNBA | 6/7/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks, black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something in somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: And me but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you with Toadstool Sports for Sunday, June seventh,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: we went to and all on the show yesterday. Maybe
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: got a little bit lucky. Maybe it was a little
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: bit unlucky that we needed to get lucky though with
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Cubs money line, I mean, you never want
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: a moneyline favorite to be losing in the ninth inning,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: obviously or have to go to extra innings. I think
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: the Cubs should have scored more early in the game though.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: They were losing one nothing for a while and Ben
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Brown pit so we got that part of the handicap right.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Landed raup I do like him. Obviously, he's a capable pitcher,
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: more than capable, but he did walk like three guys
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: in five innings or something, So the Cubs got a
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: little bit unlucky that they were not able to get
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: any of those runs home. So Raup got out pitched
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: by Brown by a bit, but it didn't translate into
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: the score, and then the Cubs wound up having to
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: come from behind. They tied the game on a Pca
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: home run. Then the Cubs gave up a run in
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the ninth inning, so then they were down again. So
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: they never led until extra innings because then they had
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: to score on the bottom of the ninth to even
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: send it to extra innings. Pca had another home run,
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: so he's helping us out big time. And then the
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: Cubs were able to not allow a run in the
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: top of the tenth I believe. And then with the
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: ghost Runner, if you avoid giving up a run, you're
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: in pretty good shape with your ghost Runner. They're stupid
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: ghost Runner, but the ghost Runner actually maybe was helpful
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: in that game. The Cubs got the win I believe
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: in the tenth denning. Then we had the under in
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and Texas that hit with a six nothing Cleveland win.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: That is not exactly what I expected. Baby pitched better
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: than I expected him to Enlighter was worse than I
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: thought he would be. I thought, out of the two,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: I thought Lighter would do a little bit better because
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: he had the better home road splits. He had absolutely
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: dominant numbers against Cleveland, so I was kind of surprised
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: by which team was the one that did the scoring.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: But we got the under nonetheless, So anyway it happens,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: it happens. Man. The bullpen handicap was good. At least
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: the bullpens did well. A first five under in that game,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure would have lost. So doing full game
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: and including the bullpens and that handicap worked out. Let's
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: go to today, man, I'm gonna have two baseball players.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: They're both sides. I had a few like unders that
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: I was considering, but I had kind of some issues
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: with all of them, so I left those off my card.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: But I'll tell you what those are. Hopefully we can
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: get some wins here, man. Let's do it. Red Sox
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: Yankees is the first game up. They got rained out yesterday.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: It was raining up in the Northeast, So though really
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: It wasn't really raining during the day though, so I
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what happened with that game.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: It started raining at least here late last night, but
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: I guess it was raining earlier in New York. Now
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a disadvantage for the Red
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: Sox here because the Yankees were gonna have Will Warren
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: pitched yesterday, and I think you'd prefer to face him
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: than Cam Schlittler, even though I didn't really have high
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: hopes for the for the Red Sox in yesterday's matchup.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Schlitzler was going to pitch today regardless, but the Red
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Sox are going to use Suarez, who was scheduled to
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: pitch yesterday. Yankees probably figure, well, this is a big
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: series against the Red Sox, so they're gonna I guess
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: flip Schlitler and Warren would be my guest, and Warren's
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: probably pitching whenever the Yankees playing next. That would be
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: my assumption, but I don't know. So we had Nycaps
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Suarez yesterday, we can do it again here. So we
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: have two rested bullpens here. Red Sox have a very
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: good bullpen. They're number three. They have the best bullpen era,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: which is below three, although, like I said, as soon
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: as they give up a run, it's gonna go back
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: above that probably though Yankees have a decent bullpen at thirteenth.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I arranged that by whip. I arrange offense by ops
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Yankees number two in offense. The Red Sox are tied
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: in twentieth with the Blue Jays. But the Red Sox
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: are actually doing better in that department recently finally, which
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: I said they should, because they have more talent in
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: that lineup than they were being given credit for, at least,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: or more talent than what they were putting out there,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: you know, more talent than what their production numbers were. Anyway,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Suarez is pitching this game here. He's been pretty good
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: this year three point three eighty RA one point one
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: six whip better on the road as well, two point
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: nine to three road ERA. But I mean he's got
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: I think he's got some issues. He has had a
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: couple of really good starts in here. He's had some
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: other starts where he didn't really go deep. One of
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: his worst starts of the season was against the Yankees
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: in Fenway. He only lasted four and two thirds a
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: lot four and runs, five hits, four strikeouts, two walks.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: You know, it wasn't as bad as it could have been,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: I suppose, but it was one of his worst starts,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: and he has given up nine runs over his last
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: ten innings in starts against Atlanta and Cleveland. Luckily, he
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: did strike out ten guys against Cleveland, and the Red
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Sox won that game because they put up a bunch
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: of offense, and they were not out of the Atlanta
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: game either, because again they scored in that game too.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I don't exactly like what I'm seeing.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Even though the ten strikeouts is obviously really good. That's
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: higher than what you're normally gonna get out of him.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: But his walk numbers have gone up a little bit,
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: He's been along some runs recently. Too many hits in there.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I don't really love it all. Those overall numbers are fine,
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: pretty low hit rate, his strikeout rate is about what
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: you expect from him, a little bit lower than one
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: per inning, and his walk rate is okay. But I
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: don't love the matchup here either. Numbers against the Yankees,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: including that last outing that wasn't that good. Ninety four
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: at bats, twenty four to six strikeout walk ratio is good,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: but two to eighty seven average a lot seven to
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: ninety eight ohps. I don't really like Suarez here. I
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: don't trust him, and he's having to go up against
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Cam Schlitzler, who you probably have to assume is going
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: to pitch well. He's got a one point eight to
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: ninety RA point eight six whip even though those numbers
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: are unsustainable, and he has actually been less good at
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: home with a three point three to three homye RA
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of that because he had his one bad
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: outing of the season last time out against Cleveland. They
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: got to him for four earned runs in four and
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: a third innings, but I think he got somewhat unlucky
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: because that was on five hits. There was an error
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: in there, so there was one unearned run in there too,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts, no walks. He's pitched so well this season.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: I think that that's more of an outlier, I would say,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: And it doesn't even really look like he pitched that
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: badly in that outing, so I assume he's going to
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: pitch well here. He's got really good numbers on the season,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: clearly way below one hit per inning, low walk rate,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate above one per inning, by the way,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: and that has continued over the past month as well,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: so he's continuing to pitch that way. He's got good
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Red Sox as well. I don't think
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: he's faced them this year yet. Forty two at bats,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: thirteen strikeouts, one walk, one forty three average allowed four
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: to oh one ops. He has done well against the
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. I expect that to continue happening here. I'd
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: lean to the Yankees here. The money is not agreeing
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: with me though. In the initial opener was in the
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: minus one seventies, and that line's already dropped to like
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty something here, so I don't know. To me,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: that number looks a bit low really, given what this
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: matchup is. Suarez is getting some respect in the market here,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: but I think the Yankees probably get this one. You
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: could go first five, I guess, because the Red Sous
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: probably do have a bullpen advantage here, so first five
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees makes sense to if you go Yankees,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: you got to go probably some variation of a run
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: line here full game. I would say it's a split
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: bet run line money line and make your own minus
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: one run line or find a minus one run line
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: out there first five, which I think probably actually makes
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: the most sense. Here. You could lay the half run
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: probably with the Yankees at a decent price, I would guess,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: because I don't think the price is going to be
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: that far off from what it is full game, because
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: I think the Red Sous well, they do have an
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: advantage in the bullpen, but the Yankees bullpen's good. Suarez
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: seems to be getting respect in the market, so I
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: don't know. You can go see what the prices are.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: I didn't look. But the money is also disagreeing with
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: the Yankees though, eighty seven percent of the tickets and
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the cash, so the money is coming
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: in against the Yankees. The one thing about that is
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: you could definitely make the argument that the Red Sox
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: are a little bit undervalued in the market, like I
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: think they're better than the record would indicate. Yankees have
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: the way better record, so public is just gonna kind
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: of be on them. But there's no way I'm gonna
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: come in and fage Schlittler here. I think the Yankees
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: probably win that game, but first five I think makes
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: the most sense. Next game up will be a play
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: for me. Hopefully we can get this one correct here.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: I think this is a mismatch and I think we're
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: gonna be getting an undervalued starting pitcher here. We're gonna
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: go with the Philadelphia Phillies against the White Sox here.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: I know, yeah, I'm gonna pay a price for it.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: But like I've said throughout the series, there's a reason
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: why Philadelphia is favored to this extent in these games. Here,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers are telling you that Philadelphia is not as
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: bad as their record looks, and they might even be
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: kind of telling you the White Sox are a little
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: bit over hype. The White Sox have been the hype
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: because they've been bad for a while. They were like
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: historically bad last year, and now all of a sudden,
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: competitive team that might actually even make the playoffs, because
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: playoffs because the AL is terrible. But the Phillies are
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: still a solid team, dude, Like I thought they were
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: gonna be in competition to win their division. I think,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: I mean they potentially still could. I mean, I think
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: the division they're in is just kind of wide open
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: right now. It's not well except for the Brave. They
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: actually know the Braves are in there. What am I saying?
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia probably is not gonna beat the Braves, but Philly
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: could definitely still be a wild card here potentially, although
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the NL is definitely competitive. But yeah, I thought Philadelphia
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: would come in second in their division though, and I
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: think that probably still would be the case. But Philadelphia
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: is not as bad as the record looks. I'm rambling.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Look at the bullpen you suggest today. The White Sox
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: use three relief pitchers. Philadelphia also did. Philadelphia has the
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: better bullpen though the ranked twelfth and the White Sox
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: are sixteenth. But the White Sox era is like close
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: to a run higher, It's like a half run high.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: I guess, so Philadelphia does have the better bullpen here.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: White Sox have the better offense, There's no question about that.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: They're fifth in offense. Philadelphia awful at twenty eighth. And
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: I know, laying a price like this, you're gonna need
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: runs out of Philadelphia here, but I think we can
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: get that done here. Philadelphia did put up eight runs
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: in the opener here of this series. And I know
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: they lost yesterday, and I know they lost a four
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: game win streak, and sometimes when a team loses a
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: win streak, they'll be hung over in the next game.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: But I think that that's more, it's a stronger It
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: has a stronger effect when the win streak that was
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: lost was a longer win streak, So I'm not as
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: worried about that. And this is the rubber match in
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: this series, so I think both teams are gonna show
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: up for this, so I think you'll get the effort
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: out of both. But what we're looking at really is
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching here. Starting pitching because Tyler Gilbert is
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: listed as the White Sox starter here. He's not a starter.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: He's gonna be an opener here, but he also has
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: a when he point to five VR and point two
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: point sixty three whip, these are bad numbers. Obviously, He's
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: only pitched a couple innings so far this season. He
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: got hammered in both outings against Milwaukee and Tampa ban
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: I know those are offenses that have been better than Philadelphia's,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: but Gilbert, he's in his thirties. I mean, there's not
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: much to like about this. His career numbers are pretty mediocre.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: He was on Philadelphia, so I guess, I mean he
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: was very very briefly on them in twenty twenty four though,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: so I guess if you think that's gonna be any
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: sort of motivator, I don't really see it, though, But
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: this is mostly gonna be a White Sox bullpen game.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: It looks like, oo, you can go back five games
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: ago to kind of try to figure out what are
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: they gonna do with their pitching here? Let me see,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: I actually did that already, and it was Sandlin who
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna be Eric Fetti because he pitched the
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: last game against Minnesota on June third, so you'd think
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: maybe it would be him getting back into this game.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: I'm probably okay with that because he sucks. But uh,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: looking five games back, though, it was supposed to be
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: Sandling the rookie in and it looks like it's not
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: going to be him. So I don't know what we're
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: doing here, but it looks like a bullpend game for
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: the White Sox and Aaron Nola is gonna pitch for Philly,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: And you might think, well, why do I want him?
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: He has a five point five to five y RA
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: one point three to nine whip. Yeah. I know, but
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: first of all, you look throughout his career, he's obviously
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: been a lot better than that. His career numbers are
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: significantly better than that. And yes, last year he had
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: bad numbers, numbers that look like the numbers this year.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: I understand that he got injured in twenty twenty four,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: came back in twenty twenty five, tried to come back
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: from injury, really wasn't good for a while, but he
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: did start pitching well towards the end of the year,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: and right now it looks like he's trending in the
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: right direction again. Man, if you look at his last
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: three starts, he went at least five innings in all
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: three of them, and I know two of them are
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: against San Diego. I get it. San Diego is a
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: pitiful offense, I know, but he held them to two
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: earn runs in each of those outings. And over his
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: last three outings he's got eighteen strikeouts and no walks.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: And he actually pitched pretty well throughout the month of May. Really,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: his era I think was a little bit misleading given
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: what his command numbers looked like. He wasn't walking guys.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: He was a little bit too hit a ball, but
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: that hit ability's gone down a little bit over the
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: last couple outings too. I know against San Diego, I
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: get it. The White Socks are a different animal. But
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: I think Nola is somewhat returning to form here. He's
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: got a decent strikeout walk racing on the season to
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: a good strikeout right, actually more than one per inning.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is really the problem. He's got to
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: get that number down. I think he might be able
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: to do something here man, and he has really good
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: numbers against the White Sox in thirty career at bats,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: although I know there is a pitcher in there or whatever,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: but they only have two hits against him, and Vargas
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: does have a home run, but they have seven strikeouts,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: no walks, sixty seven average two thirty three ohps. So
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Nola, who looks to be trending
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: the right direction here. Maybe this one is a little
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: bit questionable. We need some offense here from Philadelphia, but
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I think they can get this done against what it
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: looks like a bullpen game, basically out of a team
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: with a bad bullpen. Philadelphia looked like they had the
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: money on them last I saw, yes, seventy two percent
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash on them,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: So it looks like the money's agreeing. Money looks like
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: it's also coming in on an over and the totals nine,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: So Oddsmaker is kind of expecting a higher scoring game here,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: which is good when you're laying a favorite, because that
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: means there's more opportunity for them to score runs and
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: get over that number. So we're gonna do it. Philadelphia
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: is my first play here, although now that I kind
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: of broke that down a little bit more, I'm getting
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit worried because Nola's recent trends in the
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: right direction. We're all against the worst offense in baseball,
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: but whatever, that's the way that it is, all right.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh in Atlanta is an interesting one. Atlanta's on the
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: verge of a sweep, per man. So even though Pittsburgh
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: does face the Dodgers next, I'm pretty sure they're not
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: going to overlook the Braves. Pittsburgh is gonna try to
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: avoid a sweet peer. I would think either way they're
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: probably gonna show up because this is still a big
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: series too. Atlanta used four relief pitchers yesterday to get
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: that win. Pittsburgh only used two, so that cuts into
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's bullpen advantage a little bit. Atlanta has the number
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: one bullpen, though at least in a whip and in
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: e RA they're pretty close, only point oh one higher
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: than the Red Sox. Then Pittsburgh is seventeenth and bullpen
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: definitely not as good. So still probably give Atlanta the
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge, but it's a little bit less strong because
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: they used many guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Atlanta's
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: number three in offense, Pittsburgh number seven, So we have
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: two capable offenses, and the offenses might be able to
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: do some damage in this game, even though maybe not.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: These pictures are both high variance pitchers. Right now, Bubba
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Chandler is pitching for the Pirates. He's got a five
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: point zero five ERA one point five to three whip.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Not good stuff here. Obviously. He's been a little bit
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: better on the road four point five to four roady
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: rauh so that's a little bit better four point five
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: to four. Atlanta's been a little bit less offensively potent
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: at home as well. But the problem with Chandler is
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: the walks. He's got to figure that out, dude. He's
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher. He's a talented pitcher. He's got a
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: pretty decent strikeout rate, his hit rate is low, his
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: walk rate is enormous. He's got to do something about
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: these walks. That's the main problem with him. As numbers
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: that gets Atlanta are sparse. They only have four hitters
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: who have faced him ten at bats. They only have
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: one hit a single from Harris, two strikeouts, no walks,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: one hundred average two hundred oh ps. So yeah, Chandler
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: might do well here, but his walks are just massively concerning.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: And the total in this game is high for a reason.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: So the oddsmakers are kind of telling you they don't
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: totally trust these pitchers. Bryce Elder is pitching for Atlanta.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: He probably is the more trustworthy pitcher. I mean, he
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: does have the better numbers this season two point six
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: to three ERA one point oh wait whip. He's better
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: at home two point three to four home ERA, So
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: both pitchers in the better home road split for them here.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Elder had a bad outing against the Red Sox a
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: couple starts ago, but he bounced back with a pretty
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: good one against the Blue Jays. I know it's the
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays, they're a weak offense, but he pitched well there.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: So Elder, it looks like that Red Sox game is
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit more of an outlier, and we did
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: take a loss on that game with the Blue Jays
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: there in the first five. The Blue Jays were down
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: one run both at the end of the at the
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: end of first five and at the end of the
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: full game. But overall, Elder kind of a low strikeout rate.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: It looks like his velocity is kind of just gone
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: after having injury issues and whatever. But his hit rate
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: is really low. His walk rate's not that bad, so
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well for the most part. He's got good
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: numbers against Pittsburgh as well. Twenty six at bats one
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: ninety two average allowed five thirty ops seven to one
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. The only extra base hit is
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: a home run from Treoloh. So I could see both
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: pitchers actually pitching well here. I could also see them
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: potentially not doing well. This is a very difficult game
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: to figure out. Not on my card. The money's indicating
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh a little bit, eighty six percent of tickets,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: eighty three percent of the cash on the Braves. Obviously,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: the Braves will be a public side here. Even though
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is hyped. The public is just gonna play Atlanta
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: in most situations, and they have the picture with the
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: better era. Here Atlanta's around minus one sixty. Maybe they
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: don't deserve to be favored by that heavier price. With
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Elder on the mound and with Pittsburgh being motivated at
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: least to avoid the sweep. I think that's probably why
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: the money is kind of coming in against Atlanta. I
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: think some of it has to do with the price.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on the over as well. For
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: what that's where it looks like kind of a strong
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: market indicator. On the over. The line is close to nine, which,
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: like I said, that's high. That's the oddsmaker's kind of
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: telling you they don't really trust these pitchers here. I
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: don't really know about that. I mean, the bullpen's yet.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's better bullpen is unrested right now. Pittsburgh's bullpen's not
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: that good if you go over full game makes some
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: sense here. I think a first five under somewhat makes
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: sense too, though, given that the pitchers seem to have
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: okay matchups in this one, and they're both in the
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: better of their home road splits. So that's kind of
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: the way that I look at that game, but that
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: is not one that I want anything to do with. Gerald.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: What's up? Yes, thank you, thanks for hanging out. Garrett.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man? You don't want me to talk about
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: that game? Man? Playing your potential. I mean, they're the
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: better team, but like I said, I mean, Carolina, they
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: have some issues, though mostly offensively. Their offense isn't really
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: that good. And I know they had a ridiculous comeback
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: in that game yesterday, but they kind of got dominated
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: in a lot of that game yesterday though Anderson was
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: also not doing well, but Carolina was also turning the
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: puck over ridiculously, like they had so many bad turnovers
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: in that game, but they they easily could have lost
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: worse than that. Vegas had two more goals taken off
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: the board on correct calls, but it was, like, I mean,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: it was so close in both of them, the off sides, well,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: the off sides one was definitely close. The goaltender interference, yeah,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: I mean it was what it was. But Vegas had
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: two goals taking off the board there because of that,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: and those were both situations where you know, they just
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: were constantly having chances to score, like legit chances. And
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: now Carolina is messing with their goaltender situation. I'm gonna
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: talk about it whenever the next game is. But yeah,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that. Yeah, Vegas definitely should not
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: have blown that lead, though obviously Vegas should have won
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: that in regulation. Yes, true, two own goals, including the
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: overtime one, which is crazy. Yeah, definitely some mental problems there.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: It looks like with Carolina that's the type of thing
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: that can be cleaned up. Though if your mental state
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: is if you're in the right mental state, maybe they
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: won't be in the next game a lot. It's gonna
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: be a difficult handicap. I think the Braves. Yes, Oh,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: Elder didn't throw that hard. I don't know. It seems
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: like his strikeout rate is down though from what it
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: once was. I don't know. Brave's not good in day games. Interesting,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, given who the starting pitchers are though, that
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: seems to be an edge for the Braves though, But
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: you know, just given that Elder obviously has had the
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: better season, Chandler still hasn't really figured out his wildness,
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: although I think I think Chandler is going to be
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: really good at some point, But I don't know. All Right,
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Baltimore at Toronto. This is a game I considered putting
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: on my card fairly strongly. These teams split the series
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: so far, so this is to win the series. It's
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: an AL East matchup here, so both teams likely motivated here.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Baltimore used two relief pitchers yesterday, Toronto used five, so
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Toronto generally has the better bullpen, even though they're not great.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: They're ranked eleventh, but their eras over four, but they're unrested,
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: so that kind of negates their bullpen edge a little bit.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Baltimore not good though at nineteenth. Their bullpen ra is
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: not very good, but the advantage that Toronto would normally
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: have in the bullpen isn't as strong here In this game,
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I think the bullpens are a little bit more Even here,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has the better offense their tenth Toronto is where
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: are they? Oh yeah, Toronto's tied with the Red Sox.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I already said that their twentieth. Shane Boz is pitching
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: for Baltimore. Boz has been pitching a little bit better recently.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Boz is kind of interesting man. He's got some decent stuff,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: but kind of like Chandler, I guess Boz like he
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: just walks too many guys. He's got a four point
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: two ninety RA one point three to seven whip mediocre
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: numbers there. He's a little bit better on the road
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: four point one to two ROADRA pitch well in his
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: last outing at Fenway against the Red Sox. I think
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: he had good numbers in his career against the Red
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Sox too, And I know the Red Sox have had
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: their issues hitting at home whatever. The Red Sox have
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: hit better recently though, so that is a decent start
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: from him. And Boz has actually been pretty good four
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: starts in a row now, giving up three or fewer
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: earned runs and all of them going at least six
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: innings in all of them. One against Washington which is
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: a potent line up, a couple in a row against
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, who have a decent lineup as well, and
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: having to face them twice in a row. Boz is
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: in better form right now. Man. His walk number is
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: still too high. He's still walking multiple guys every outing.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is okay, it's lower than one per
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is a little bit low, kind of
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: lower than you'd expect out of him. I think he
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: tends to be a decent strikeout pitcher, so that seems
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: to be kind of turning around a little bit. Though
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: his last three outings of strikeout rate was pretty high,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is still too high, like I said,
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: but he's in better form right now, and he has
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: done pretty well against the Blue Jays. Sixty four at
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: bats against them two thirty four I average allowed six
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: seventeen ops, sixteen to two strike out walk race. You know,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays has been a pretty weak offense this year,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: so Boz, I think he actually is going to pitch
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: well here. That would be my read on this. I
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: don't know if I quite want to bank on it,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: but I was strongly considering making a play on both
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: pitchers here because you know, Kevin Gaussman is pitching for Toronto.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: He's solid three point three six ERA, one point zero
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: nine whip. He's been even better at home two point
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: nine homye ram. Even though he gave up four runs
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: against the Braves last time out, it's the Braves there
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: are a good offense, and he kind of got unlucky
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: in that he gave up four runs in six innings.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: He only gave up five hits, two walks, and had
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts, so that was not a bad pitching line.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Goussman's still pitching well man. He's really only had one
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: like actually bad start this season against Tampa Bay, and
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty strong other than that. He's got a
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate around one per inning, a pretty low hit rate,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: and a low walk rate as well. So I like
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Gousman here. And he's got good numbers against Baltimore for
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the most part too, although the OPS is a little
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: bit questionable, but one hundred and six at bats against them,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: twenty one strikeout, six walks. That's a good ratio too.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Seventeen average a lot of that's good as well. Seven
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: thirty seven OPS is not great, although it's still below
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: that seven point fifty threshold that I like to use,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: where I would still say Gousman has the edge here.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So almost made my cut for today. I would go
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: first five innings under in this game. I think both
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: pitchers might actually well here. Totals eight in the game.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: Toronto's about a minus one forty favor For what that's worth,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of ticket sixty two percent of the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: cash on Toronto right now, the money looks like it's
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: slightly indicating on Toronto. I don't know about that, man.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I think Boz might be able to compete in this
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: game though in Toronto's bullpen advantage is a little bit erased,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: so I don't know about that. I think there might
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of value looking towards Baltimore in
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: my opinion on the money line as a dog there.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: But I think the best approach is a first five
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: under and cut out the bullpens in that one. But yeah,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I that one might be the next one up for me,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: like if I was going to add another one in
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: my card, it might be that one, to be honest,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna do it. And hopefully I picked
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: the right one because I'm starting to get worried about
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: about Nola, dirty sock, what's up? It was yeah, perfect
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: two and zero, but I don't know. I had some
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: things wrong about that hand about both handicaps. You know,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Lighter was worse than I thought he would be. Ralp
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: was a bit better than I thought he would be,
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: although Brown still outpitched him though. But we had to
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: get lucky. We got unlucky and then had to get
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: lucky with the Cubs. You never want to see a
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: game where your team is favored and losing in the
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: ninth inning like that is not what you want. And
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: never leading until the final score that's not good either,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: all right, I mean, I'll take the luck when it happens.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Seattle at Detroit is the next game up. This is
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: also split series. Detroit had actually won four games in
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: a row prior to losing yesterday, so maybe a little
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: bit of a hangover spot. But then again, because when
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: you lose a win streak, you could be hung over potentially,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: and I know I'm still playing on Philly in that spot.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: But these win streaks I don't consider to be that long.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: And Detroit lost four to not that yesterday, so they
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: got shut out at home, so they may be in
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: a bounce back spot for an ugly performance at home.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: I was correct about the under in that game yesterday, though,
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: by the way, Bryce Miller was excellent in the game
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: and Montero was good enough for that game to be
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: an under, although I think I leaned under first five,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: but I don't did it go under in the first five.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: It was actually I think it pushed. I think it
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: was right on the four. So the bullpens actually did
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: better than I thought they would in that game, mostly
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: Detroit's because I don't like Detroit's bullpen. This website is
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: finally up to date. It wasn't up to date earlier.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: But Detroit used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Seattle I believe he's three. Seattle still has the better bullpen, though,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: even though they used some of their better relief pitchers yesterday.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle's number fifteen in bullpend but they have
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: one of the best bullpen rays, so they are definitely
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: better than Detroit. Detroit's at twenty one, which doesn't seem
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: like a huge gap, but their era is over a
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: run higher than Seattle, so Seattle definitely has the better bullpen.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: Seattle's number twelve an offense to Troit is twenty second,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: so Seattle has had the better hitting as well. Luis
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Castillo is making his return for the Mariners here. I
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: think I don't know if he was injured or if
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: they did they send him to the Miners or something.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Would they really do that, I don't know, Because Castillo,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's up with him. Man. As I
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: have pointed out on this show, He's had a solid
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: career and at thirty three. You don't all of a
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: sudden fall off of a cliff. So I don't know
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: what's going on with him this year. Five point five
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: to three ERA one point four or five whip. That's
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: not good. But obviously, when you look at his career,
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: he obviously should return to some sort of form here
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: and be significantly better than this. He's been worse on
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: the road though, five point eighty six Roady Ra. He
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: pitched okay in his last outing on May thirty first,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: So actually, I guess he hasn't really missed that much time.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe they pushed one of his starts back, but it
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: feels to me like he hasn't been around for a while.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe he pitched after an opener or something. I don't know,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: but he pitched five innings on May thirty five or so.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: He's kind of on schedule here as far as that
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: he's he's slightly off schedule, like push back a couple
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: of days. But he pictured okay in that outing against
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: a tough Arizona team. Arizona's a decent offense. He held
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: him to two hits, one on and run, three strikeouts,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: wasn't that great and two walks, but I need to
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: see more out of Castillo before I could trust him again,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean that was an okay start from him,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: so maybe he's moving in the right direction. His overall numbers,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: he's allowed more than one hit per inning, which is
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: not great. His walk rate is too high. His strikeout
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: rate is good more than one per inning. So again,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: I still think he's gonna be better than this, Like
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: usually you're gonna get any rral like kind of like
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: in the high threes from him, in like a one
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: point two something whip. So we'll see what happens. But
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: I think he is obviously better than his numbers look
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: so far, although he continues to you know, struggle, so
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: we'll see. His numbers against Detroit are pretty good. In
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: ninety two at bats two seventeen average allowed, five eighty
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: one ops, twenty five to nine strike out walk ratio.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: This is a decent matchup for him. Man, He's got
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here. Detroit has not hit well this season,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: so basically since school ball has gone down, they seem
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: to be just a less motivated offense. So if Castile's
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: gonna continue to turn his season around, this is the
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: type of matchup that I think you want to see
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: if you're him, it looks like it should be a
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: decent matchup for him, and he's going up against Jack Flaherty,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: who has not pitched well this year. Five point three
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: to one ERA one point six whip is horrendous. He's
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: been worse at home as well, five point six to
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: four homey RA. Pitch well in his last game, though,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: on the road against Tampa Bay, shut them out for
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: five innings, five hits, six strikeouts, two walks. Could be
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: a bit of an outlier though you look at his
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: main numbers. He had a really good strikeout walk ratio
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: in May, but he allowed way too many hits too,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: and his team lost every one of his starts in May,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know. And if you kind of
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: look at his pitching lines though, he wasn't really that good,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: even though he's been striking out a lot of guys.
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is actually really high on the season,
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: but his hit rate is high. It's above one per
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: inning in His walk rate on the season is way
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: too high, but he has gotten that walk rate down
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: over the last month plus, so he is pitching a
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: bit better than his numbers would suggest. Right now, and
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: that might continue because actually his last two starts were
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: both pretty good. He had a decent pitching line against
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Anaheim in the start before that, so I don't really
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: necessarily want to fade Flowerty here. He's got mediocre ish
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle and eighty at bats two point fifty
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: average allowed isn't too bad, but a seven to ninety
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: six ops is a bit too high. They got a
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: lot of extra base hits against him. Arosa Raina does
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of damage four for ten with a double
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: and two on them runs and a walk, twenty eight strikeouts,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: nine walks here. Overall, this is a pass for me, obvious.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, these pictures, you don't even know. You don't
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: know what you're gonna get from these pitchers. They could
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: both suck, they could both be good. I have no idea. Uh,
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Seattle's a small favorite here, and the money looks like
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: it's fading them, seventy one percent of the tickets, sixty
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash on Seattle money coming in
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: against Seattle here. I kind of lean towards Seattle, though,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Like I think Castillo is better than Flaherty if he's
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: actually pitching the way that he usually does, and he's
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: got better matchup numbers here, and Seattle's got the better
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: bullpen and the better hitting. So I don't know. I
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: would have a slight lean against that market read towards Seattle,
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: but I don't want to do it. It seems this
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: game seems pretty high variance to me. Man, the totals
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, what that's worth, but I don't
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: have a good I don't really have a good read
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: on the total either, because again it's difficult to even
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: figure out what these starting pitchers are even gonna do here.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that game is gonna be uh. I'm gonna
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: sit on the sidelines for that one. Tampa Bay and Miami,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: the Florida rivalry. These seems to split the first two
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: games as well. Miami won yesterday, which I didn't think
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: was gonna happen because they went with a bullpen game.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: But their bullpen is pretty good. However, now their bullpen
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: is completely used up after they went with their bullpen
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday for the whole game. Miami, Yeah, they used a
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: lot of guys. They used seven relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: that is not good. Tampa Bay only used two, so
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: that kind of negates Miami's bullpen edge Miami's seventh and
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: bullpen Tampa Bay eighteenth. Tampa Bay's bullpenny arrays like a
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: run higher than Miami's, but given the Miamis is very unrested,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: that kind of negates the bullpen advantage of it, and
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: I'd probably be wanting to fade both bullpens here. Hitting wise,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is better. They are tenth right now, tied
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: with Baltimore, I think is what that was. Miami is nineteenth.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Griffin Jackson is pitching for Tampa Bay, though that basically
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: means that they're kind of going with a bullpen game here.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Jacks hasn't been very good. Four point seven to sixty RA,
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: one point four to seven whip those are not good numbers.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Home road splits not really significant here. Didn't really pitch
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: that well against Detroit last time out of Detroit. Is
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: not a very powerful offense right now, so that is
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: not a good sign. Although he did have five strikeouts
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: one walk there, his numbers overall are just not that good.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: He had a good ray in May, but he had
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: a lot of walks, so I don't think he's really
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: that good. He's made mostly relief appearances this year, so
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: keep that in mind. But his walk rate is like
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: almost won every two innings, which is not good at all.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Hit rate is right around one per inning, strikeout right
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: around one per inning. All of that is okay, but
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust him here. Miami doesn't have much
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: experience against him. They're are one for five off him,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: but one hit is a triple from morele three strikeouts,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: one walk, not a lot to really see there. I
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: don't know. I'd probably be looking to fade Tampa's pitching
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: situation here though, doesn't look great to me. Sandy al
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: Contra is pitching for Miami. He's at least an actual
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher. But I mean, he's been okay this year,
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: but again he's a guy, which you know, unlike Bryce Elder,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Alcontra did have high heat before, he does not anymore
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: at all. So his strikeout rate has gone completely down
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: down the tubes. But he's still pitching okay. He's got
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: a one point three ERA, but he's dealt with so
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: many injuries in his career. Man, He's been good at
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: home this year though, three point seventy four home ERA.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: It is a pitcher friendly stadium here pitched really well
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: last time out on the road against Washington. They're actually
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: not as good at home, but he did well in
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: that start. He look at his numbers overall, he's been
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: way too hittable. That's been one of his problems. He's
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: allowed more than one hit per inning. That was his
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: main problem in May was he was way too hittable.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Even though he got his walk rate down. His walk
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: right on the season isn't great, but his problem is
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: the strikeout rate is just so low. He just can't
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: really rely on blowing guys away anymore. And that was
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: why he was so good in the past. He's just
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: not that good anymore. His numbers against Tampa Bay are
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: also not too good, and fifty five at bats three
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: h nine average allowed seven to ninety four ohps is
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: not as bad as you would expect with an average
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: that high. Seven to one strike a walk ratio is
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: pretty good, but he's allowed a lot of contact hitting
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: to them. At the very least, I don't want to
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: trust him here. I would probably lean over in this game.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: You got bad bullpen situations here. Man Timba Bay is
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: not a good bullpen. Miami's bullpen is torched after yesterday.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust either starting pitchers set up here.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Jacks is probably only gonna go three four innings here.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: I don't like the matchup numbers for our contra here either,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: even though he pitched well in his last outing. Over
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense to me in this game. But
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: the total seven and a half or eight looks like
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: it's mostly seven and a half juice to the over.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: That is a lowts total, And usually I do not
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: like going over loats totals because the odds makers are
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: kind of telling you something with that's total, telling you
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: they think it's gonna be a low scoring game. And yes,
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: it is a low scoring environment, typically in Miami. But
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: I don't see it, man. I think over makes more
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: sense in that game. The money is coming in towards Miami.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: For what that's worth seventy one percent of tickets, fifty
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: one percent of the cash on Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: is a small favorite here. I could see where you know,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: the professional money, like, I can see what they're thinking,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Like Tampa's not as good as their record looks, as
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: I've been pointing out, they have a lot of close
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: wins this season. Should they really be a road favorite
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: with a bullpend game with Jacks making the start here
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: basically against at least an actual starting pitcher going against them.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Probably they shouldn't, so I can kind of see where
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: that money's coming from. But I'm not doing anything with that,
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: mister Pinsey. What's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Next game is my last play of the day, is
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: in the A's and Houston. Let's do this. If you
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: follow me, you know what we're doing here. So we're
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: gonna be done afternoon. We have two afternoon games and
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: that's it for today, so we'll know how good or
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: bad the day is pretty much right away. We're gonna
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: take the A's on the money line in this one,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: and yes that includes the bullpens. Uh, there're minus one
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: oh five on the money line here. If you want
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: to go first five, you could do it that way too,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: But I mean, you know what, let me see what
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: the I might change this actually, let me see because
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I hate I just hate both bullpens here. Let me
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: take a look real quick. Let me see what the
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: money line is on the first five. Maybe I'm gonna
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: change this to a first five. Let me look, Yeah,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna change it it's not really that much different.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: It's minus one thirteen for the A's in the first five.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do it that way instead. Let's avoid the bullpens.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: The bullpens both suck, although you know, I do kind
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: of like that part of the reason why I was
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: considering full game. Let's go first five. My apologies, first five.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: Actually sorry, it's minus one thirteen, so it's a little
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: bit higher of a price. But yeah, we'll go with
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: just the starting pitching here for the A's. First five
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: for the A's. Now, one thing is the A's are
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid a sweet peer, so I wouldn't disagree
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: with full game here either, obviously, because you're looking at
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: you know, the situation. The A's are probably gonna be
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit more motivated than Houston because the A's
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: have gotten embarrassed in this series, including losing thirteen to
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: two yesterday. Houston's already won the series. I know Houston's
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: still below the A's and the standings though, so that
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: concerns me a little bit about the motivation, Like Houston
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: probably wants to win this game too, to tie uh
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: the A's and the standings here, But the A's are
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: still trying to avoid Sorry, A's are still trying to
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweet peer though, so that is something to
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: consider here. You know, I think the motivation is probably
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: stronger for the A's here Houston. I forget who they're
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: playing next. They're playing tomorrow. I think they're playing Anaheim.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: That's not really a look ahead. Anaheim sucks, so yeah,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: but whatever, I think the A's might have a little
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: bit more motivation here. Bullpen usage I think was similar
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday for both teams. A's used two guys out of
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. Houston also did. Houston's a bad bullpen, but
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: they've gotten a little bit better recently. They're now twenty fourth,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: so they no longer have the worst bullpen whip or era.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: They're actually two teams worse in era, which are the
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Rockies and the and the Reds. So yeah, Houston is
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: at least getting a little bit better. The A's bullpen
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: is still better than theirs though at twenty second, and
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: there is a gap there between the two. So the
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: A's do still have the better bullpen, so if you
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: wanted to go full game, you could still do it
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: that way. I just really really worry about both bullpens here,
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: but full games still makes sense if you want to
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: do it that way. Hopefully we get this right though
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: either way. As are twelfth in offense, Houston is sixth,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: so both teams can hit. But what we're focused on
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: is the starting pitching. We're gonna go back to what
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: we did last time. Man, we gotta win with it.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: We're gonna we're gonna jump on Gauge Jump, and I
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: know I forgot. I don't know if the Van Halen
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: drop here though. I don't know if i'd get copyright
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: striked if I use any of their music. I think
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: you're allowed to use like a quick clip, but I
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: don't know. Jump is a rookie man. He's a lefty.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: He's got some pretty deceptive arm movement. He's got a
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: decent pitching profile, like a pretty deep pitch mix. So
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: I like all that. I talked about him when I
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: played on him in his game against the Cubs, So
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: you can go back and find that show if you
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: want to. He didn't have great numbers in Triple A,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: but he looks like he's able to pitch at the
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: major league level. Man. He's made two starts so far.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point seven five ERA one point
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: one seven whip. He's also got an awesome name, so
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: I like that at His better start was the Road
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: one one point twenty nine, which makes sense because again
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: we're talking about the A's here right like their home
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: stadium is awful for pitchers, so I think he can
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: give him a bit of a pass for his opening start.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: His debut start was in that stadium at home, and
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: he gave up a bunch of hits against Seattle, but
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: he did not give up any home runs and he
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: still had five strikeouts in one walk. And he did
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: exactly that again in his next outing against the Cubs,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: but the hit rate was way lower so and he
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: went deeper into the game too, and he went seven
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: innings on only eighty five pitches, so he was very
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: efficient too. He looks solid so far, dude. He's given
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: up twelve hits so far and twelve innings now, five
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: runs allowed, ten strikeouts, two walks. These look like good numbers.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: He is kind of a fly ball pitcher so far,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: so maybe that's not gonna be good when he's pitching
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: at home, but he's not at home here and he's
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: going up against an astro team that has never faced
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: him before, so I like that as an added advantage
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: to a pitcher going up against a lineup that's never
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: seen them before. So I like all that. And he's
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: going up against Mike Burrows, who has really struggled so far.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point six six ERA one point
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: five to four whip awful, awful numbers in his first
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: season with Houston. He just might not be that good man.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe that was why Pittsburgh traded him away or whatever.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: He's also been horrendous at home seven point twenty six
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: homye ra so the home road splits look really good
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: for fading his ass here. He just had a motivated
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: you think, a motivated a situation against Pittsburgh, the team
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: that got rid of him. And he was horrible in
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: that start too against Pittsburgh. So there's really not a
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: lot to like about Burrows here. He bitched well in
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: the previous game, but that was at Texas, where it
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: seems like everybody pitches well for the most part. His
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: three of his last four starts have been really bad.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: His overall numbers are bad, way more than one hit
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: all out for inning, a ton of home runs allowed,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: fifteen of them twenty six walks, is also not good
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: in sixty eight to third innings and a low strikeout
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: rate too, So this is really almost nothing to like
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: about him. And let's make it even worse. He's got
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: fifteen at bats so far against the A's. Most of
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced him before, and they have a
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: four to sixty seven batting average against him nine to
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: sixty seven ops against him with no extra base hits
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: in there, so they've hit him even though they haven't
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: hit him for power yet, three strikeouts, one walk against them.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: I like this. I think this is a starting pitching
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: mismatch here man. And again I still agree with the
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: full game too, if you want to do it that
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: way and get the price down a little bit. But
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: the price is almost the same. So we're paying a
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: little bit of juice on both these games here. But
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: let's do it. We'll take the A's in that one
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: in the first five and play gauge jump again here,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: all right, for Zach Royals in Minnesota. Here, these teams
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: they haven't split. The Royals have won two of the
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: three games in the series so far. This is a
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: four game series. Tough divisional series. I mean, it's a
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: close divisional series. Let's say this site has not updated. Here,
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: these teams did not. I mean these teams both did
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: use bullpen arms yesterday. I believe Kansas City kind of
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: used more of their bullpen yesterday. Yeah, they used some
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: of their better guys because they won the game, so
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: they had a save situation. They used four guys out
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. Minnesota used three guys out of the bullpen.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen kind of blew it. Joe Ryan did pitch
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: well in the game yesterday. I thought that was gonna
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: be enough for Minnesota to win the game, but that
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: was not the case. But Minnesota's bullpen maybe sets up
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit better here. I don't trust either bullpen
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: at all, though Minnesota they are. Sorry, I'm looking at
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: offense here, but whatever. Minnesota's eighteenth in offense. Kansas City
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: is where the hell is Kansas City's twenty seventh in offense,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: So Minnesota is the better offense. Minnesota is twenty seventh
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: than bullpen though Kansas City twenty ninth. These are two
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: pretty bad bullpens, so bullpens that you want to avoid.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Starting pitching. Noah Cameraon is pitching for Kansas City. He's
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: starting to turn it around. Man. He had a good
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: season last year. He wasn't good at the beginning of
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: this season, but his numbers have kind of gotten back
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: into the mediocre territory here this year. Four point two
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: two ERA now one point two to six WHIP. That's
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: not too bad. He's been worse on the road though,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: a four point five roadiel, right, so that's not great.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Pitched really well last time out against Cincinnati. Gave up
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: one hit in seven innings. It was a home run,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: but that was the only run. He allowed, eight strikeouts,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: no walks. He's pitched well basically like four starts in
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: a row, even though Kansas City has lost all of them.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: He's gotten almost no run support in those starts. He's
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs and five starts in
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: a row now, and he's pitching a lot better. Twenty
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: to six strikeout walk ratio in May added to the
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: eight zero strike out walk radio in the last outing.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: He's definitely pitching a lot better now. His hit rate
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: is now below one per inning on the season, his
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: walk rate is okay ish, and his strike up rate
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: is basically what you would get what you what you
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: would expect to get out of him. Excuse me. He's
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: not a huge strikeout pitcher. He does pitch well against
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Minnesota so far in his career thirty eight at bats
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: against him. I don't think he's faced them this year
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: one fifty eight average, allowed, three eighty four ohps, nine
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: to two strike out walk ratio, one extra base hit,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: which is a double from Royce Lewis. I think Cameron
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: should pitch well here. That would be my gauge on this,
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: not gauge jump, but Cameron's pitched well recently and he
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against Minnesota, so I think he looks
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: to pitch It looks like he should pitch well here.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Connor pre Lip is pitching for the Twins. He's a
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: young pitcher. He started out pretty good, but he's been
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit worse recently, and his numbers are
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: not good right now. Five point two to six CRA,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: one point three to five WHIP. He's been way better
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: at home though, three point six to eight home ERA,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: so he pitches better at home. He had a blippery
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: had a couple of bad starts on the road at Fenway,
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: which they still won that game somehow, and then he
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: pitched poorly on the road against the White Sox. Then
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: he had to face the White Sox again right away,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: and even though he give up four runs, he actually
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: pitched fairly well in that game, got the win, had
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, two walks, six hits. So Prelp does look
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: like he's kind of returning back into form here, so
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily want to fade him here. He's got
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: more than one strike up er inning on the season,
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: lower than one hittle upper inning. His walk rate is
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: too high, though, so something to consider there. His walks
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: are bad, but other than that, he's been pretty solid.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's never faced him before, so that should give
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: him an extra advantage. The fact that Kansas City hasn't
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: faced him before. Usually that is an advantage to a
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: young talented pitcher. Here, Kansas City is favored in this game.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they be, although I could see
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: the argument that Cameron is the better pitcher here because
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: he's strung together like four good starts in a row,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: So that's more suggestive that he is returning to form
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: than pre Lip having one decent start, you know, So
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with the Kansas City side here. Uh,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: maybe you do it first five because the bullpen situation
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: is just horrendous. Sixty percent of ticket, seventy nine percent
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: of the cash. On Kansas City, they're around minus one ten,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: minus one fourteen whatever. I could see the argument for it.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Cameron is just the more proven picture at this point
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: in these guys careers, and again he has more starts
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: in a row, suggesting that he is in good form
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: again here, so I wouldn't disagree with Kansas City first five. Uh,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: the under first five makes some sense to me. That's
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: total is high at nine, but some of that is
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: because the bullpens are awful. Obviously, if you go under,
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: you gotta take the bullpens out. But a first five under,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: I think it does make sense, maybe makes more sense
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: than anything else in this game. I think both pitchers
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: might actually do okay in that one. That's my read
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: on it. I don't have a really strong opinion on it. Obviously.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Saint Louis. Saint Louis is looking for a
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: sweep here. They won the first two games of this series,
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: so Cincinnati might be a little bit extra motivated here.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: I don't remember who Saint Louis plays next. They are
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: playing the Mets next. I don't know if that's really
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: a look ahead. The Mets have a big name, so
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: maybe that's a look ahead spot. But the Mets obviously
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: have been playing poorly this year, so I don't know.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: I don't look either of these bullpens, especially Cincinnati's. Cincinnati
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Saint Louis
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: used four. Saint Louis has the better bullpen, though their
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: ranked twentieth. Cincinnati is abysmal. They actually have the worst
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: bullpen he RA now and they're ranked dead last and
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: whip as well, tied with Kansas City. That is a
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: bad Cincinnati bullpen man, so Saint Louis does have a
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage here. Both offenses are right in the middle
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: of the pack. Saint Louis fifteen, Cincinnati sixteen. Rent Lauder
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: is making the start for Cincinnati. He's returning from the
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: injured list had a shoulder injury. I have no idea
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: what he's gonna do in this game. He has not
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: been very good so far this season. He's a young
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: pitcher that has some talent, but he's got a five
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: point four ERA one point four to one whip this season.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: That doesn't make him trustworthy. Obviously, he's been bad on
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: the road six point six y five roadra kind of
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: crazy that he has better home numbers in Cincinnati's hitter
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark, but that is the case. Saint Louis is
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark, so maybe he can pitch well here,
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: but I would not want to bank on it. His
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: last start, his last two outings before he got injured
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: were absolutely horrible against Pittsburgh and Chicago, the Cubs, they
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: were both on the road. He was so bad in
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: those outings. He allowed eleven runs and four to third
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: innings on six hits, eight walk and two strikeouts. Horrible,
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: one of the worst, like two game stretches that you'll see.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: His numbers were decent, but prior to going into that.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: So but maybe it's because he was injured. You know,
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: it looks like he has some issue here. So maybe
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: he'll start pitching better again coming back from injury. But
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to bank on it, even though I
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: know a lot of times, like professional some professional betters
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: will tell you they like playing on veteran pitchers returning
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: from injury because that guy's gonna be pumped up and
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: excited to get back out there and want to pitch
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: well because they've gone through all that rehab. And the
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: other thing is that the team a lot of times
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: will rally around that guy returning home. It's different from
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: the reverse injured player theory. And like a chemistry sport
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: like football or you know, basketball or whatever, where it
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: like has a huge impact on the line, you know
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: what I mean, where like that oh that guy's coming
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: back to the line shifts like too far in the
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: direction of that team, and sometimes the chemistry gets disrupted
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: in like baseball, different because the guy's the starting pitcher.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: So the line is what it is. The line is
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: going to be heavily influenced by who the starting pitcher is.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: And the line might even undervalue that pitcher because he's
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: coming back from injury, you know what I mean, because
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: it's so focused on that one individual. But sometimes the
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: hit the hitters will rally around that picture. Though, But
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: we'll see. I would not want to trust Louder here
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: in this game though, for all those reasons I said.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: Against Saint Louis. They have eight at bats against him,
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: so there is some unfamiliarity here. Only pis has a
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: hit off him, a single. They have one strikeout. Also,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Pie is no walks, one twenty five average two fifty ops.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: But it's a small sample. But I guess what you
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: can say is that louder is unfamiliar to Saint Louis
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: here and maybe that gives him a little bit of
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: an advantage. I would not trust him up against Michael McGreevy,
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: though McGreevy has been pitching well. He's got a two
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: point nine to eighty RA one point one whip for
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis here. He's been really good at home two
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: point one to two homeer Ray. Now McGreevy is continuing
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: to do this while not being a strikeout pitcher. He's
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: had one strikeout each in two of his last three outings,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: which is obviously not good. Not a great sign here,
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: but he's only allowed more than two and runs three
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: times this season. He's allowed more than three once, so yeah,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is really really low. He doesn't strike
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: guys out, but he doesn't allow hits or walks really either,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: so he pitches effectively, even though he's obviously like a
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: junk pitcher, which the advanced analytics guys hate that shit,
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: they don't like the junk pitchers, but a lot of
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: times pitchers like that get undervalued in the market too.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: McGreevy has good numbers against the Reds. In twenty five
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: at bats, they only have two hits against him, five strikeouts,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: two walks, no extra base hits, eighty batting average two
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: twenty eight oh ps. So McGreevy sets up pretty well here.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: To me, he seems like the more trustworthy pitcher in
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: this one man, and Saint Louis has the bullpen edge.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: I would leave Saint Louis here. I have no idea
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: why the money is disagreeing with that eighty eight percent
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: of the ticket. Well, I guess it's because Cincinnati is
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep. So yeah, Cincinnati does have
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: the motivation there to try to avoid the sweep, but
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: the matchup looks like it favors Saint Louis in the
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: bullpen and in the starting pitching. Eighty eight percent of
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: tickets fifty seven percent of the cash on Saint Louis, though,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: they're around minus one thirty something here, so the money
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: is fading Saint Louis there for what. That's where the
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: money is also hitting the over in this game. Totals
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: at nine or nine and a half here, I don't
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: know about that. Man. If you're gonna go over, obviously
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: go full game with it and take advantage of both
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: bullpens suckage here. Other than that, I don't have that
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: much to say about the total. It's really hard to
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: gauge it. I wouldn't really I don't think i'd really
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: want an over in this game. I mean, both pitchers
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch okay here, so I don't really see that.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: All right, Cleveland and Texas, I'm not gonna go with
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: it under in this sode. You've already got bull my
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: plays today. We got the underwriting both games so far
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: in the series. I'm happy about that. This game, I'm
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: gonna skip it because I don't like both starting pitchers
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: enough here. As far as playing an under, it still
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: might happen. For sure. It's a low low total in
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: this one, so the oddsmakers are kind of expecting another
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: low scoring game here. But you're gonna have not too
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: much leeway here. Both bullpens are good, and Cleveland only
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: use one bullpen arm yesterday. Texas used three, so I
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: think both bullpens you can still kind of trust them here.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: Texas is number six in bullpen. They have a really
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: good bullpen era. Cleveland's ERA not quite as good, but
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: they are ranked ninth in bullpen here right now, there's
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: still one of the better bullpens. So both bullpens, you know,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: I like them. Joey Cantillo is really the reason why
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: I don't want to go under here. I just don't
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: trust him enough. He's got a good ERA three point
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: nine to two, but his one point four or five
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: whip definitely worries me. That's pretty bad. He's been a
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: little bit better on the road three point seven eight.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: Rodyra hasn't pitched well recently. He's not going deep into
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: outings at all. He's walking a ton of guys. He's
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: had three or more walks in all but one outing
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: going all the way back through the beginning of May,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: even though Cleveland has won six of his last seven starts,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: so he's getting some run support here. But I don't
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: like the way he's pitching. His walk number is just atrocious.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is good over the course of the season,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is unbelievable. He's walking more than
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: one guy every two winnings really bad, and his strikeout
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: rates not really that high. That's just not really what
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: he does. But this walk rate is very alarming, so
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: I don't want to trust him here. Texas doesn't have
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of experience against him. They have six
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: hitters who have based him fourteen at bats one forty
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: three average, allowed four to twenty nine ohps five zero
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, so they have not hit him well.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: So Cantillo, I almost said Castillo. Castillo and Kintillo are
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: both pitching today. Can Tillo. He does have good match
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: up numbers here at the very least in a small
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: sample size, and he's going up against Jacob deGrom, who
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: we know is good, and he's particularly good at home
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: in this stadium. He's got a three point four to
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: eighty RA one point zero one whip, he has a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: one point five to two homeie RA, so he's been
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: excellent at home this year, pitch well on the road.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: Last time out against Saint Louis bounced back from really
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: basically one really bad outing against Anaheim. He's bounced back
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: fine from that. He's had a couple of bad outings
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: on the season, but he's been really good for the
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: most part. He's got a high strikeout rate, still at
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: his old age, still pitching well, low walk rate, low
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His only issue is the home runs have
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: been a bit of an issue this year, so you
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: got to watch out when he's pitching in home run
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: conducive stadiums like on the road, But that isn't really
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: as much of a concern at home here. But he
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: is kind of a fly ball pitcher. He is definitely
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher, which is not great Cleveland somehow.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: Even though de Grom's been around for forever, Cleveland only
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: has two hitters of have ever faced him before, the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: old timers, Hedges and Hoskins. Hedges doesn't even have a
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: hit off of them on. Hoskins hasn't done particularly well
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: against him either. They have thirty three combined at bats
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: against them, twelve strikeouts, seven walks. Is a lot of walks,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: but they have only a one fifty two average of
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: five to twelve ops off. So I think Degram sets
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: up well here as well. I'm still gonna lean under
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: in this game. I don't really want to put it
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: on my card, but I still think the under is
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: what makes the most sense in this game totals basically
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: at seven. Maybe you can find a seven and a
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: half under at minus one twenty. Probably you can't, though
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: you can't, you can't t o. I don't know, but
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: it under makes the most sense to me. You might
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: even go under seven here. That still makes more sense
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: than anything else in that game. I could see the
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: argument for Texas here they're around minus one thirty four
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: here minus one forty even, but you're paying a little
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: bit of a premium with de Gram on the mound.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Obviously seventy one percent tickets seventy two percent of the
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: cash on Texas. I don't know if I love it.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: I mean it's shaping up to maybe be a low
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: scoring close game where if it's a close game, either
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: either team could win, and then you'd probably wish that
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: you were on the underdog in a close game, you
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, Because you're getting the plus money
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: if you do it that way, and probably Texas again
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: is just a little bit over valued in the market
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: with de Gram on the mounds. So that's the way
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: I read the game. But I think it under makes
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: the most sense in that game if you're gonna play
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: anything in it. But staying away from that, Thomas, what's up, man?
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out Twomas, I don't, dude, Yeah, can
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: you can you? I'm gonna look it up. I'm gonna
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: look up how to spell that. I should know because
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: I'm Swedish. Uh, so I should know some of these Scandinavia.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: You're Scandinavian, right, Schogrin? I know how to pronounce Chogrin.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna that's what I'm gonna call you. I'll call
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: you by your last name. All right, I'll be back
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: in a minute. We have five games left to talk
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: about here, and then there's w n B A but
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: there's no NHL or NBA here because the NBA shifting
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: time zones and whatever. They get an extra day off
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: to do that. All right, I'll be right back, all right,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: what's up? Okay?
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: Uh?
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I don't I don't know if i'd say
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: that this MLB slate is good though, I don't know
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: it's I feel like my reads. I don't know. I
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: don't feel that comfortable with my with my plays today, man,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: but I feel like I almost never do in baseball,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. Milwaukee at Colorado, we got a
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: course field game here man with a really high total,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: So keep that in mind. Yesterday's game did go under.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: I know I pushed back against the full game under yesterday.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: I basically said just go with Missierowski because I thought
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee might score a ton of runs, and they scored
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: a lot. They scored seven, But that game obviously still
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: went under a course field total. You know, but I
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: was also worried about the Milwaukee bullpen in that situation,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: so I liked, uh Colorado under their team total more,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: which wound up being that was a winner if you
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: played it that way, probably maybe even still the best
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: way of playing that. So whatever, Colorado was trying to
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: avoid a sweep, heer Milwaukee place tomorrow. They go to
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: the A's starting tomorrow. I don't think that's really a
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: look ahead spot. I don't know, but Colorado'll probably be
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: a little bit extra motivated try to avoid the sweep here.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: But they're at a disadvantage against Milwaukee basically in any
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: particular matchup. But obviously it was not good that call
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: for Colorado. I'd have to face Mizierowski yesterday. Colorado also
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: used four guys out of the bullpen, which is not
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: gonna help them here. Milwaukee used two. Milwaukee has the
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: way better bullpen here, Finland, all right, there you go.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: Hell yeah, I knew it was Scandinavia. I just didn't
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: know which Scandinavian country. There you go, a Finn all right,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: your neighbors with my my Swedish ancestors, all right, even
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: though I don't look Sweedish at all, because I am
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: also Italian, the Italian Jeans take over, all right. What
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: was I about to I don't even know what I
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: was about to say. Oh yeah, Milwaukee has the way
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. Obviously Milwaukee is where are they at fourteenth?
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: But they have a good bullpen era man, so they're
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: probably better than even that would suggest Colorado twenty fifth.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: And as I mentioned, Colorado is now the second worst
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen e RAY currently they're bad, dude, Colorado not horrible. Offensively,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: they're number seventeen here, Milwaukee number fourteen, so both team's
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: kind of middle of the pack offensively. They could both
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: score in this stadium. Though Shane Drohan is pitching for
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, he's been kind of like a fill in
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: starter for them, slash long relief guy. He's pitched alright, though,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: two point eight to seventy ra one point one five
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: whip not bad at all. He's not good on the
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: road though, four point three to two ROADI al right,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: so that's a little bit concerning, especially when he's gonna
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: be pitching in course field. But he's not really a
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: fly ball heavy pitcher, so that will help him at
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: least in course field, not allowing fly balls. But I
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: have no idea how many innings he's gonna go here.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: He last pitched on the first, so he is set
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: up to make another start here for what that's worth.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: But he's probably gonna go three four innings, maybe I
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: would guess here, because that's been what he has been
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: doing this season. So probably they're gonna they're gonna cut
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: him off somewhere four or in the fifth in somewhere
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: in the fifth inning, max, I would say, and then
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: they're gonna turn it over to the bullpen. That would
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: be my guess. But maybe that's okay because he's pitched
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: all right, and you'll get a chunk of innings from
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: him at least, and Colorado's never seen him before, so
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: he might have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge there,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: h Drohan, He's got a good strikeout rate, but a
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: lot of that is in relief, remember, and when you're
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: coming in, like you know, for relievers, usually you get
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: their best stuff and then that's all you gets. You
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: don't really get fatigue out of them, you know what
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, when they're pitching in short stints. But he's
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: a lot few hits. His walk rate's not bad either.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: He's an alright pitcher, and he's got unfamiliarity here, at
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: least for Colorado. They're going with Kyle Freeland. He's been
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: awful this year. Eight point zero six ERA one point
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: seven to one whip horrible. And it's not even the
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: course field effect that's doing that. Like, he's been bad
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: both home and away. These numbers are so bad. He
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: had two road games in a row where he was
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: pretty bad against the Dodgers. I know the Dodgers are
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: an elite offense, but they absolutely rocked him. And then
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: he didn't do that much better against Anaheim really, although
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: he had eight strikeouts in one walk over that span,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: so that was good at least. His strikeout walk ratio
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: actually isn't even that bad. It's just his hit rate
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: is insanely high and he's also a fly ball pitcher, Like,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: why would Colorado even want this guy? An extreme fly
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. Let's put you in course field. Yeah, okay,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Good Obviously, he's given up a lot
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: of home runs this year, and he's given up a
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: ton of hits. He's just way too hit a bullsom Yeah,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: take away what you want from that. His numbers against
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee are not as bad as you would think, though.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: In eighty seven at bats, twenty two to six strike
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio two forty one average allotted seven to
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: fifty or seven fifty ops. So the ops is right
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: on the Mendoza line. So he's actually not that bad
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee this game. I don't know. This is so
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: hard to read, man, I don't know what you're gonna
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: get out of either starting pitcher here. I think there's
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: high variants in this game from both starting pitchers. The
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: total is getting the over is getting a lot of
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: the money fifty to fifty on the tickets, eighty five
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over. The total is
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: eleven and a half. Pretty much across the board here.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: I don't really think I would want to go over
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: this total though, Like I could see potentially, especially Milwaukee's
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: pitcher might do all right here, I don't know. And
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: then the money is coming in on Milwaukee seventy percent
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: of tickets, eight eighty eight percent of the cash on them,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: They're around minus one to eighty. I mean, that's not
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: really a price I would want to lay on the
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: road with a converted reliever being your starter, even though
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: he has been good. Trohan probably does have the upper
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: handover Freeland still, and then Milwaukee's bullpend is still better,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: so it probably still makes sense to lean towards Milwaukee here.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's still the best way to look at this
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: game is to look for Milwaukee to somehow win this game.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean I can't get involved in it, man,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: I guess you'd be doing you'd be looking at like
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: a run line situation with Milwaukee. There may be a
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: split bet run line money line, but I'm gonna stay
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: away from that this next game up. I considered this
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: game for a play here on Peacock, Washington at Arizona.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: Washington's won the first two games of this series, outscoring
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: Arizona twenty to two in the series. Totally embarrassing for
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: Arizona to be getting destroyed like this at home. Washington
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: we know is good on the road though. That's the
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: one thing that's good about them, as they get a
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: lot of runs on the road, and this is a
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark here. Washington does play San Francisco next.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: I don't really think that's much of a look ahead spot.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: But Arizona, you gotta think they're gonna show up motivated here.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: You don't want to get swept at home, especially in
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: an embarrassing fashion like this. Arizona used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: Washington also did. Arizona has the better bullpen. They're ranked eighth,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: even though they're Era's back above four, so I don't
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: love that. I don't think they're quite that good. They're
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: probably like a middle of the pack bullpen. Washington's bullpen
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: is bad though they're twenty third, so Arizona does have
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. Arizona's offense is kind of falling
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: off again. They're all the way down to twenty fifth,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: even though they're a capable offense. They've been up and
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: down and all over the place in these rankings. Washington's
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: number four. Washington does have the better offense. What I
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: was looking at here though, is the starting pitching Like
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: I actually think both starting pitchers might be good in
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: this game. Kidki is pitching for Washington. He's starting to
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: pitch better. He's got a three point six to two ERA.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: His whip is still not good. I know, one point
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: four to two. That's not a good whip. He's been
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: pretty similar home in away, slightly worse on the road.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Three point seven to seven Roady Ray. His walk number
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: is still a little bit of an issue over his
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: last couple outings, but he has pitched a lot better recently.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: He had a thirty to seven strike a walk ratio
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: on May three point four to one ERA and a
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: lot fewer than one hit per inning over that stretch.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: And then his last outing was still decent against Miami
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: other than the fact that he had three walks. So
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: he's he is actually pitching better here. He's got a
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate on the season. His hit rate is
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: still too high. His walk rate is still a bit
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: too high as well, but like I said, over the
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: last month plus, he's actually been improving those numbers quite
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: a bit, so he's in better form right now. He
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: hasn't allowed more than three on runs in any outing
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: going all the way back to Pittsburgh in the middle
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: of April. So he's not allowing that many runs either,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: and Arizona's never faced him before, so Cavali, he's a
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: young guy with some talent. Man. I know he's twenty seven,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: and usually your career doesn't start taking off in twenty seven.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: But he seems to be in better form right now,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: and I think he might pitch well here. Even though
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: it is a hitter friendly environment. He has the extra
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: advantage of being unfamiliar to Arizona's hitters and Garrett's favorite pitcher,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: Michael Sarraka is pitching for Arizona here. He's having a
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: good season three point four to nine ERA, one point
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: one to nine WHIP. He's been really good at home
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: two point two three ERA. Despite its hit her friendly nature,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: He's pitching well at home. I pitched pretty well against
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers last time out. Even though you give up
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: four runs. He had a six to one strike out
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: walk ration and only allowed six hits. That is not
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: a bad pitching line. He's really He's only had one
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: really bad outing this year, which was which was on
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: the road against the Brewers. He's got a decent strikeout
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: rate here, almost one per inning lower than one hit
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: ale out per inning in his walk great's fairly good
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: as well. Also is a flyball pitcher, but hasn't allowed
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: a lot of home runs, which is what's helping him
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: pitching at home here, because usually you don't want to
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: be a fly ball pitcher in these hitter friendly ballparks.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: But he's been able to overcome that just I don't
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: know exactly how, but he hasn't allowed a lot of
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: home runs, and somehow Washington's never faced him before. I
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: think he might have been on Washington, is that right? Yeah,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: briefly he was last year. But it's kind of weird
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: though that he was on Atlanta and Washington never saw him,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: or at least Washington has no hitters who have faced
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: him before. That's weird. But he got two pitchers that
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: are completely unfamiliar to the opposing hitters here. Obviously my
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: lean in this game, you know how I do things.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: I think under first five innings is what makes the
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: most sense here. I don't want to trust either bullpen.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: Don't really see the percentages on that yet. The totals
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: eight eight and a half of the full game, first
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: five innings, you're probably looking at about a four four
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: and a half maybe something like that. But that's the
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: way I would play this game. This one almost on
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: my card as well. I would say first five under
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: makes some sense. I'm just not sure if I quite
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: am ready to trust Cavali here, but I think the
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: first five under makes sense. But you're dealing with a
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: you know, hit or from the environment here. That wouldn't
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: necessarily scare me away though. But I don't know this one.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: Some of it's just intuition too. But of course, watch
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: both of my plays lose and then we'll have these
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: unders all hit, you know what I mean. But yeah,
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: first five under is what I would do in that game.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: Anaheim and the Dodgers. The Dodgers, I think are on
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: the verge of a second straight sweep of Anaheim. They
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: already swept Anaheim in Anaheim and blew them out in
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: that series. This series one game was close, yesterday was not.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: Dodgers on the verge of sweep here again, Dodgers do
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: play Pittsburgh next, so maybe they will look ahead because
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a National League team, and Pittsburgh's been playing
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: a lot better this season, so the Dodgers might actually
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: look ahead to that. You gotta think you're at least
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: gonna get an effort on an Anaheim here to try
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: to avoid a six loss this season to the Dodgers.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: Dodgers only use one relief pitcher yesterday, though, and they
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: have the much better bullpen. Anaheim used four huge bullpen
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: edge to the Dodgers here, Dodgers number two in bullpen.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is twenty eighth, and they have the second or third,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: no excuse me, fourth worst bullpenny Ray not good at all.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are number one and hitting Anaheim is twenty third,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: so the Dodgers have a huge advantage there as well.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: Starting pitching, though, I kind of like something. I like
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: things about both these starting pitchers. Here. Hosly Sriano's pitching
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: for the Angels. He's still having a good season two
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: point seven two ERA one point two to one whip.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: But he started out the season just blowing everybody away,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: and I knew that wasn't gonna last because he's a
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: decent pitcher, but he's not that good. And if you
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: look at what he did last year and what he's
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: starting to do this year, he's had some real issues
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: pitching at home in Anaheim Stadium. I don't know why,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: but that's continuing to be the case. But the good
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: thing for him is he's not pitching in that stadium today.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: He's pitching on the road, and on the road last
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: year in this year, he's considerably better on the road,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: one point seven to two roadier this year. Last year
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: his splits were extreme towards the road, So that's good
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: for him. He's coming off a game at home where
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: he was pretty awful against the Rockies. But the one
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: thing I don't like here, even though he's had some
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: good starts in here still. He pitched well against the
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: A's a couple of starts ago, but he's had way
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: too many walks recently, dude, including a start against the
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: Dodgers at home. Last time he faced the Dodgers in
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: mid May. But in three of his last four outings
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: he's had four plus walks. So I just can't trust him.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: I just can't do it, dude. His last road start
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: wasn't really that good either against Detroit, and the fact
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: that he was really bad against the Dodgers in that start.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: It was such a bizarre pitching line in that game
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: was at home. They lost the game fifteen to two.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: He gave up one hit against the Dodgers in five
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: and to thirty innings, but he had six walks, six
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and give up six earned runs. What a bizarre
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: pitching line in that one. Man, it might have been
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: a pictuer Gomi. If you follow that that account on Twitter,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: it's it's like a score of Gami in the NFL,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: where you know which tracks unique final scores. The picture
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: Gomi tracks unique pitching lines which happened all the time,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: so it makes it pretty funny. But I don't. I
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: just can't trust Soriano right now. Man. I know he's
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: a decent pitcher. He's way better on the road, so
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: when you do play on him, you want it to
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: be in a road game. But his walk rate has
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: just been insane recently. I just can't insanely bad. I
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: just can't do it. Although, believe it or not, even
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: with that last start against the Dodgers, he's got good
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: numbers against him. In thirty seven at bats, they have
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: no extra Mase hits against him, one thirty five average,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: allowed four fifty four oh ps, and like I said,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: they only had one hit offf him last game, but
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: they had it on a walks. He's got eleven strikeouts
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: ten walks against them, But it seems like Soriano. I
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: would lean towards him pitching well here Man, even though
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: there are just some things I really can't trust about him.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: His matchup numbers and his home road splits look in
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: favor of him pitching well here Emmett she And is
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: going for the Dodgers. I like him too. I think
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: he's a pretty good pitcher. I think he's better than
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: his four point five RA would suggest. One point one
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: to six whip is good. He's been good at home
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: as well, three point six to two home y RA,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: so he's a lot better at home. Pitched all right
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: on the road last time out against against Arizona. He's
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: been pretty good recently. He wasn't good at San Diego
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: a couple of starts ago, though, which is kind of concerning.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: He didn't pitch well on the road at San Diego
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: or at Saint Louis recently, but he's not on the
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: road this time, so I don't know what it is,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: but he pitches bad on the road, even in pitcher
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: friendly stadiums. I don't know why, but he's back at
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: home here, where he pitches better. He's got a good
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: right got raid on the season, more than one per inning,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: fewer than one hit a lot per inning. His walk
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: rate's good. He is a bit too much of a
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher, and he allows a lot of home runs,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: so that's not great. But I think he sets up
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: to pitch pretty well here. He's better at home. He's
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: mostly been good recently and Angels. The Angels only have
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: fourteen at bats against him, the only hit as a
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: single from Mike Trout, three strikeouts, one walk, seventy one
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: average allowed two h five ops against Anaheim, so she
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: and has good numbers in a limited sample against Anaheim.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: I like the first five under in this game, too.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: Man I would cut Anaheim's bullpen out of that equation
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: because their bullpen is just awful. So I think the
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: first five under makes the most sense in this game.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: I considered it, but there are just way too many
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I have way too many concerns with
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: the way Soriano's been pitching. Though Dodgers are about a
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: minus two fifteen favorite here, I think the Dodgers probably
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: will get the win here. Sixty five percent of tickets,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: eighty six percent of the ash on the Dodgers. Money
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: is indicating on the Dodgers if the game is close
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: later in the game, the Dodgers have a huge bullpen advantage.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with trying to find
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: a way to play the Dodgers here, but I still
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: think the way I would play this game is a
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: first five under, though I think both starting pitchers might
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: do well here. You're probably looking at about a four
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: on that one. And I was correct about the over.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: I had a lot of I had some decent reads yesterday. Man,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: the over in that game was correct. I think I
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: had a lean to the over in Baltimore's Baltimore Toronto
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: yesterday that was correct as well. But yeah, the over
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: in the Dodgers in Anaheim game was correct as well.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: Of course, the Dodgers did most of the damage there
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: to get that thing over, and I think it barely
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: got over, but still it did all right. Mets at
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: San Diego, just on the serface, you would think this
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: will been This would have been a series where I
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: would have been playing some unders. Haven't done it, But
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: I'm happy we got the win with the Mets the
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: other I loved that spot for the Mets. Dude, that
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: was just such a great situational spot. Now we're looking
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: at a situation where both teams are probably gonna show up.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: This is a it's still it's a late afternoon game,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: but it's just an afternoon game out west there. The
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: teams have split the series, so I think both teams
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: will show up for this. It's the rubber match of
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: the series. Mets only us one relief pitcher yesterday, it
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: was their long relief guy Warren, so their bullpen is
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: very intact. San Diego used four relief pitchers yesterday, including
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Mason Miller for the second game in a row, so
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: he's probably not gonna pitch today. So I think the
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: Mets actually might have a slight bullpen edge again today.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: Even though the San Diego is usually the better bullpen
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: number four, the Mets are number five. The Mets have
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: had a good bullpen even though they have both bullpen
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: guys that were horrible for the Yankees last year, Devin
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: Williams and Luke Weaver. The Mets had both of them,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: and their bullpen's been way better this year, so their
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen has been way better this year than the Yankees
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: was last year. I will say, although the Yankees seem
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: like they improved theirs by getting rid of those guys,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: so whatever. But both teams have a good bullpend here.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: It's just that San Diego's is less rested, so the
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: Mets probably have a little bit of a bullpen atch here.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: These teams are still bottom two and hitting, but the
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: Mets are ahead of San Diego twenty ninth, san Diego's
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: thirtieth out of thirty. San Diego really really weak offensively
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: this year man for whatever reason. Part of it is
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: because they play in a very picture friendly ballpark, which
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: is where this game is. The Mets ESPN is Sean
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: Mania listed as the starter. It won't be him, it's
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: gonna be well, it will be him, but they're gonna
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: go with an opener in front of him. As if
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: you look at the board here, the betting board is
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: more accurate as far as who's starting. Hector Brazabon, however
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: you pronounce his name, He's gonna be the opener for
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: the Mets. They've done this a bunch of times, so
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be Braza Bond for like the
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: first inning, and then Sean Mania is gonna come in
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: after him. So I think we can handicap Sho and
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: I here. He's probably gonna go out and pitch like
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: four to five innings here. He hasn't been that good though,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: five point eight ra one point four to six whip.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road though, four point five
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: eight Roady Ray. And this is a pitcher friendly ballpark,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: so he might pitch well here. He did well in
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: his last outing against Seattle, went five innings. That was
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: the first time he went five innings this season, I think,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: so they're giving him a bit of a longer leash here.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: Now it looks like and he's been pitching okay. He
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that bad, even though his overall numbers this
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: year obviously stink. His numbers against San Diego are not
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: too bad. In ninety three at bats to sixty nine
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: average A lot isn't that great though, seven thirty six
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: ops is still below that seven point fifty Mendoza line
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: twenty four to five strikeout walk ratio. So I think
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: Mania could actually pitch okay here. I don't really want
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: to necessarily bank on it because his numbers are only
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: mediocre here in the matchup, but he might do okay.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: Randy Vasquez was pitching for Sandy. He's had a decent
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: season three point three one ERA one point two to whip,
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: but he's a guy that the professional betters don't like
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: because his underlying metrics are bad. I didn't like him
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: for a while because his walk numbers are just egregiously bad.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: But this year he's gotten that under control a bit
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason, though he's been bad at home four
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: point five to four home he ray. I don't know
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: why he doesn't pitch well in this pitcher friendly stadium,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: so that doesn't make any sense. But he's been alright
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: for the most part this year. He's allowed more than
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: four and runs only once. Like I said, his walk
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: rate is actually lower this year, so he's actually fixed
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: that problem, and his hit rate is pretty low. His
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: walk rade isn't too bad, like I said, and then
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: his strike got rate is low because he doesn't really
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: strike guys out. But I don't think vaz Becauz is
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: that bad. And he's going up against a pretty weak
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: Mets line up here, and he's done well against them
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: in the past twenty two at bats seven zero strike
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: got walker ratio one to eighty two, average allowed five
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: forty five ohpm, So Vazquez has done good or done
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: pretty well against them for the most part. The total
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: is pretty low here, seven and a half juice to
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: the over. I still think the under probably makes the
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: most sense in this game. San Diego makes some sense too.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I trust Manaiah that much really still,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: and you know, Mets are going with a bullpen arm
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: in front of him whatever. The Mets probably do have
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge though after that, but we'll see. I
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: think under makes the most sense in this game, though.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: The total is low for a reason. The Padres are
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: about it's about a pickum price about minus one ten.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: We don't see any percentages yet, but yeah, I might
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: lean slightly towards the Padres in that game too, but
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't really love that their bullpen
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: is pretty unrested though. And then we have the night
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: game on NBC and Peacock is San Francisco at the Cubs.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: Cubs got the win for US yesterday after they got
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: annihilated in the first game. But I told you San
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: Francisco's offense was gonna drop back off off after what
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: I think are a couple of outlier performances that are
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: skewing all their offensive numbers. And at least that's that
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: part of the handicap was right yesterday. So we did
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: get the win with the Cobs, although it had to
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: be an extra inning win where they had to come
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: back in the ninth inning to tie it down one run,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: but they were able to get it done. I don't
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: think San Francisco's bullpen is that good man, and they
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: weren't good in the game yesterday. San Francisco's twenty sixth
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: in bullpen. I think they're better than that, but they're
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: not really that good. Their ras up in the fours now,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: they're probably I would say they're like a mediocre bullpen.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: Cubs bullpen's been all right. They're tenth, so the Cubs
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: do have the better bullpen here. Hitting wise, the Cubs
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: are eighth. The Giants are ninth right now because of
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: those couple of offensive outbursts. But I'm still not really
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: buying it with the with the Giants there as far
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: as the bullpen usage, Giants used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: I already forget who we're talking about the Cobs. Cubs
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: used four as well. It was an extra inning game,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: so the bullpens are a little bit used here. I
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: don't know if i'd want to factor the bullpens into
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: what I would do with this game unless I was
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: fading them. But this game is kind of looking like
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: a first five under to me. Our old pal, Trevor
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: McDonald Trevor at McDonald old McDonald had a farm. He's
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: not old though. McDonald is starting for the Giants here.
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: Four point five RRA one point one five whip. That
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: whip is good indicates that his era should be better
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: than it is. He's been a bit better on the
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: road three point seven to one Roady Ira, which doesn't
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: make a lot of sense because again, the Giants pitcher
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark. I don't know why he doesn't pitch well there.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: But it was really one bad outing against the White
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: Sox and unfortunately we had an under in that one
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: and it went haywire in that one. But he wasn't
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: really that bad in that outing. Again, I don't know
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: how he allowed seven runs on three hits in one walk, Like,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: what did he hit three guys? I don't I don't
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: even understand it, and then I think we might have
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: been an under in this last game of his two
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: and that didn't go well either. Yeah, because it was
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: McDonald against Harrison, that was the game that the bullpens
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: blew it for us. Though that was that game the
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: under looked great in the game the first five under
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: cash after Milwaukee did tag McDonald for three runs early
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: in the game, but he settled down nicely didn't allow
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: any runs after that. But then the bullpens absolutely killed
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: our under in that game. I hated that it was
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: a four to one game going into the eighth inning
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: we lost the under seven and a half. I hated
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: that McDonald was okay in that game, but he did
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: walk three guys, but it was against Milwaukee. They're a
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: decent offense. I think McDonald's good overall. Though he's got
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: a decent strikeout rate, his hit rates below one per inning.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is pretty low, and McDonald against the Cobs
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: only could fort Toe has ever faced it before and
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: he's won for three against him with a strikeout in
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: an RBI, So I think McDonald sets up to pitch
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: well here. I think he's better than his ra suggests,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: and he's pretty unfamiliar to Chicago's. You know, I talk
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: about that when pitcher is unfamiliar to the opposing bats,
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: they tend to have an advantage. Jameson tie On is
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Cubs. He's got some kind of ugly
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: numbers here, five point one to three ERA, but his
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: whip isn't that bad, one point two to six, so
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: I think he's better than his RRA would suggest. I
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: think he should have an ERA like in the fours.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home, so he's back at home
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: here where he does pitch better four point h five
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Pitch well here last time out against the A's,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: which that was a game where I gave out the
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: A's in that one first five and we still got
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: the win there with Gage jump who we have again today, Zach?
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: What's up? Thanks for hanging out. I lean to the
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: Royals in their game today, for what that's worth. Although
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: I think I leaned more. That might have been my
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: stronger lean in th I forget what did I say?
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: I think I also leaned first five under in that game.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: But I like Noah Camera and I probably trust him
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: more than pre Lip in that one. All right, Jameson
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: tie on though. I mean, his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: pretty good. He's just been too hittable only on the
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: over the course of the season, he hasn't been that
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: hit ab although a few are. The one hit per inning.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: Strike gut rate is not that great. His walk rate
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: is actually bad on the course of the season, but
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: that's gotten better over the last month plus. His walk
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: rate hasn't been as bad. His strike gut rate a
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: little bit low though. But his main problem is home runs.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: He's allowed twenty home runs this season. Really really bad, dude,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: So he's got to somehow figure that out. Like he's
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, but obvious, I think
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: obviously he's allowed the most home runs in baseball this
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: year and the most per inning. I mean, that's not
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: good at least with guys that haven't you know, a
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: certain amount of innings pitched. H San Diego, San Francisco.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a weird These are weird lineup
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: stats here because Tywn's been around forever, but only four
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: Giants hitters hitters have ever faced him. But it's all
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: kind of the long timers and they and they all
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: have a lot of at bats against him. There are
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: sixty five at bats against him, but they haven't really
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: done well against nine strikeouts five walks. That is a
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: lot of walks, but one sixty nine average a lot
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: five ninety five ohps, So ti On has actually done
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: fairly well against them. So I think this is a
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: first five under. That's the way I would look at
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: this game. The full game totals eight, so odds makers
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: seem to be kind of telling you that there's just
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: not really much of a wind factor today in Wrigley
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: because the totals not one of the extremes here. Maybe
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: win slightly blowing in given who these pitchers are, so
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: maybe the total is a little bit lower because of that,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: but it's ed eight. It's I think it's a reasonable
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: total that maybe go under first five. You got ty
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: On who pitches better at home, probably better than his
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: numbers would suggest that you have to avoid the home runs.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: But I still think San Francisco is not a very
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: good offense. They can really take advantage of that, and
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: he has good matchup numbers against them. And then McDonald
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: is pretty good, better than his era looks and unfamiliar
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: to the Cubs. So first five under makes the most
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: sense to me In that one, Cubs are also getting
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: some of the money eighty percent of ticket eighty eight
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them, they're around minus one
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: twenty something. I don't know if I really see that.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: I think McDonald might be a little bit more trustworthy
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: than tie On here, to be honest, But yeah, I
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: mean I think first five under makes more sense than
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: anything else. All right, that's the baseball breakdown. Now we
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: have WNBA and then that's gonna do it for the show.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: We have two WNBA Cup games as Cup play continues,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: and I think if I was gonna play either game,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it, but I would play the
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: first game if I was gonna play either. I know
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: I've been really selective with the WNBA. I'm looking for
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: spots that I really really like. This one I kind
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: of considered it. Chicago at Toronto. You look at these
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: teams records first of all, Chicago four and six, Toronto
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: five and five, and I think public if they look
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: at this, they're gonna think, well, that means Toronto's the
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: better team. I don't really think they are. I mean,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto's still an expansion team. I know they're playing all right,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: But some of that's just because teams having to go
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: to their venue. It's an miliar travel spot, having to
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: go through customs. Whatever. Now, Toronto did just go into
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: Chicago and beat them in a very high scoring game
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: one eleven to one oh four, and if you dig
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: into this box score, it's like, well, what happened in
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: this game? Also, look at what the line was in
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: this game. Chicago was a four and a half point
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: favorite and now they're a two and a half point
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: road underdog. So I think that line is a little
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: bit skewed. Man, if Chicago was four and a half
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: at home against Toronto, this line at Toronto should be
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: like closer to a pick them. But it's Toronto two
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: and a half three. So even if there are injuries,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: there might be some injuries here, But even if there are,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: I think that line is over adjusted towards Toronto. Man
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: in this game today, So take you know, you can
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: consider that. But if we look at this game, Toronto
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: shot out of their minds. In this game. They shot
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent from the field forty six percent from three,
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: while Chicago was only twenty three percent from three. Chicago
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: actually had nine more field goal attempts in the game,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: but the percentages were so skewed that they made one
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: fewer and Toronto made five more threes. They're plus fifteen
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: from three point range and won the game by seven.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: So the biggest outliers here are clearly Toronto's shooting. I
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: think they're not gonna shoot as well in this game,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: so I think they're gonna have a big regression shooting wise.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: So I like Chicago in this game today because I
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: think Toronto will regress on the offensive side, and I
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: think the number is skewed too much in favor of Toronto.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: And this is gonna be a road revenge angle, right,
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: like when you just lost to a team on your
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: home floor and you go to their place. It's like
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: a zigzag spot, right if that recently happened, it's fresh
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: in your memory, and you're gonna you're gonna remember what
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: went wrong and be like, Okay, we're gonna make adjustments
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: to this, you know what I mean. So Chicago is
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: the team that should make the adjustments here. One thing
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: I really don't like those Toronto dominated the rebound battle
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: and they were winning eighty percent of the game. They
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: won the rebound battle by ten and that does concern
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: me a little bit. That's like kind of my one
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: concern here. But other than that, Yeah, I like Chicago
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: here plus the points. That's the way I would play
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't know if maybe there are some injuries,
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: like I said, that are kind of skewing the line
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: more in the direction of Toronto here. It looks like
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: there are some. Yeah, it looks like Hakez is out
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: for US Chicago here. I think she might be a rookie.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: I think they might have just drafted her. She's the
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: she's the sister of what's his name is it? Is
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: it Hi may Hakas, the guy from UCLA who's I
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: think somewhere in the NBA right now, you know who
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about. Uh. I think they're siblings. They both
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: went to UCLA. Van der Slut is also injured in now.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: She's a good player for Chicago even though she's not
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: a good score. So yeah, I think there are some
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: injuries that are factoring into this number here. But I
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: would take the points for Chicago if I was gonna
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: play that, and then Portland at LA is the other
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: game which is on NBA TV. Even though this is
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: the w NBA. Oh and by the way, yeah, I
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: should have mentioned what are these teams do in their
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: last games? Toronto lost to the Liberty in their last game,
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: so they might still show up. They're returning home from
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: New York, but still it was only a single game
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: road trip. So Toronto after losing by fifteen at the Liberty,
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: I guess they might have reason to show up. Meanwhile, Chicago,
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: they just beat Connecticut to end a long losing streak,
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: so that's a positive for Chicago. I forgot to mention
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: that they've lost five games in a row. So when
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: you have a long losing streak like that and you
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: end it with a win over a bad team like Connecticut,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: that gives you some positive momentum moving forward. So I
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: like Chicago in that game even a little bit more
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: for that reason. It's close to being a play for me, dude.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: With Chicago, and then anyway, we have Portland at La.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: Here La has lost three games in a row. But
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be the weakest opponent they faced so
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: far in the Cup play because they faced Vegas and Dallas.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: Those are both all right teams. Vegas is good, Dallas
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: is like an up and coming team, so I think
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: this is a bit of a step down in class
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: for LA to face Portland here. Now. I know LA
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: is horrible at home so far, one in five at home.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: That is a concern. But Portland they're an expansion team
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: and they I think they've never played in LA before.
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: So it's a bit of a disadvan disadvantage to Portland
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: having to play in an unfamiliar venue, although they have
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: players that have probably played there before. But also you
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: see LA's four and six, Portland is six and six.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: Why is LA favored by seven and a half here? Well,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: that's because LA is the better team. The odds makers
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: are telling you that. So I would immediately start leaning
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: that way, just because it looks totally misleading. Why would
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: you want to lay points like that with a team
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: that has the worst record, right, So, but I think
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: that the odds makers, you know, kind of signaled things
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: to you with something like that. I do still worry
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: that LA has been awful at home, but this does
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: look like a bounce back spot here. Portland had a
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: closer game last time out against Nix, kind of a
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: tougher game there, wund up losing that game. Now they're
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: going out on the road. The other thing to be
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: aware of for La is Kelsey Plumb came back in
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: their last game, so that was a bit of a
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: reverse injured player spot. If you remember I mentioned that
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: she played well twenty seven points. But you remember I
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: talk about when like your best player, one of your
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: best players comes back from injury, A lot of times
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: the chemistry just isn't there, and they were really bad
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: on the deepfensive side of things. So Plumb her second
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: game back, they should have that kind of chemistry rebuilt
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: in whatever, a little bit should play a little bit
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: better here. So I like La in this game. I
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: would lay the points with La if I was gonna
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: play it minus is seven and a half or whatever.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: The other thing I will say is an under makes
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: sense in Chicago and Toronto to some extent. Total pretty
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: high in the one seventies in both these games, by
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: the way, But because Chicago Toronto was so high scoring
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: in the previous game, there were a lot of free
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: throw attempts in that game too, on both sides. That's
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: why Toronto or that's why Chicago scored a lot of
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: points too, because both teams went to the free throw
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: line a ton in that game. That plus Chicago plus
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: Toronto having that ridiculous outlier shooting percentage, you know, that
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: kind of indicates to me that an under makes sense
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: in this game. But Chicago has room to shoot better
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: from the three from three point range than they did
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: in that previous outing though. But even so, if you
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: look at that out and it was so high scoring,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: like even though the public, the public usually wants to
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: go over even though this is a high total, they're
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: probably gonna see that other game if they're looking at
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: this and be like, oh, this is gonna go over easy.
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think an under makes sense in that
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: Chicago Toronto game as well. Not really a totals guy though, so,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: but we're staying off all those games which NBA team
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: has a purple court, it's got to be for the
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: cop because the NBA. NBA does the same thing. They
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: have those like horribly ugly like colored courts for the COUP.
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean probably Golden State probably, but
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: Golden State, LA. Those teams both have purple and their logos.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: I don't fucking know. It's probably one of those two. Maybe,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: I guess Toronto, if you call that purple, I don't
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: fucking know. All right, that's gonna do it? You know.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, the more I'm thinking about it, I do.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: I do like Chicago in that game, but I don't know.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: I have my concerns about it. I guess I'll just
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: keep keep off of it and wait for some more
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: w NBA games that I like even a little bit
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: better than that. But whatever, NBA, you know, trying to
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: keep it a little bit limited here, but we'll see.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: There'll be more situations to probably play. I'll be mad
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: when it wins. I'll be even more mad when our
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: baseball plays lose. We got two afternoon baseball games here
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia Phillies split bet run line, money line comes out
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: to a minus about minus one eight one eighteen or so. There.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: I can tell you what the what the breakdown is
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: about seventy If you're trying to win one hundred, about
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: seventy three of that goes on the money line part
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: of it, and then whatever that returns goes on the
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: run line part of it. And then we have a's
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: first five with gage jump again there. I almost went
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: full game on that. If you want to do that too,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: you could do that too, But I just hate both bullpens,
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. Even though the a's might have
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: a bullpen advantage there, I'm taking them out of the equation.
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Learn it Toad on Twitter. You
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: can subscribe to me there. Learn it Tode on Instagram
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: for the short form content here, like, subscribe to the
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: channel here. Let's you know, make a push, get some
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: more subs five hundred it come on, man, let's go.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: Let's get it there and then talk about a thousand man.
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: I want to do it. I want to get monetized.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: Nobody wants to listen to me though I got them
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: cool off man, like, I don't know. I always just
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: talk really loud on it. I need to get my
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: voice back down. I don't know. I don't know if
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: I could do it. It's just it's habit. I can't
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: do it. I can't control it. I don't know. We're
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 2: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Go check that out covered
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube. Check that
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: out page roon dot com sash. Learn it Toad from
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: more yuke stuff. I know, I gotta keep that up
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: to date. I gotta do more frequent yuke stuff. I know,
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: but it's I don't know. It's tough because I gotta
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: upload it, you know, in a bunch of places and whatever.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: Gotta do it though, and then and I have to
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: convert it to audio to get it on the audio
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: feed from the Patreon for the patreons, all right, and
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: then uh loser cast every Tuesday, Giants g Spot podcast.
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: It's all on my link tree. That's gonna do it.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: Happy Sunday, peace everyone. But don't you go quiet.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name steal mean
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on letting, No hold on, load
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 3: on me. You are that bit hot, but I don't.
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: Get the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: now