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Jul 27 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260727 The July 27, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of agricultural market volatility, farm economy risks, and regional weather forecasts. In their final appearances before retirement, analysts Curt Kimmel and Chad Hart discuss recent downturns in commodity prices, attributing the rapid shifts to global conflicts and unexpected geopolitical developments—such as China brokering peace discussions—while advising producers to strategically navigate these volatile marketing conditions. The broadcast also highlights the potential risks to cash rents if federal ad hoc farm payments cease, alongside a brief news segment detailing how growing rural health disparities are negatively impacting the local workforce. Concluding the episode, meteorologist Mark Russo discusses recent severe storms in the Chicago area and forecasts a much-needed shift toward near-normal rainfall and cooler temperatures across the Corn Belt as a high-pressure ridge weakens and moves westward. 02:12 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net 08:22 Plan Ahead for Fewer Ad Hoc Farm Payments 09:18 Rural Health Disadvantages in the U.S 10:18 Commodity Markets Discussion with Chad Hart 17:36 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 27th day of July 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. It’s retirement Monday. Coming up, we’ll talk with Curt Kimmel from AgMarket.net about the commodity markets and an interesting last day of discussions with him, as he’ll retire at the end of this month. And then we’ll turn our attention to a broader look at the fundamentals with retiring agricultural economist Chad Hart from Iowa State University. He’ll finish up his time there in the month of August. Along the way, I’ll bring you the ag news for the afternoon, and we’ll hear about the weather forecast, too. Mark Russo will be here from EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand anytime you’d like to hear us at willag.org. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $4.51 and 3/4, 12 and 1/2 lower. December at $4.74, down 13 and 1/2. And the March down 13 and 1/2 at $4.89 and 1/2. August beans 30, 9 and 1/2 lower at $12.08 and 1/2 a bushel. September $11.99 and 3/4, down 40 and 1/2. November futures 39 and 3/4 lower at $12.13 and 3/4. Bean meal at $320.80, down $10.50. The oil, $2.87 lower. They finished the day at $71.46. December wheat down 18 cents at $6.77 and 1/2. And that’s in the soft red. The hard red at $7.45 and 1/2, down 16 for the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago down $3.72 and 1/2 cents. Feeders at $9.52 and 1/2 lower. And lean hogs per 100 pounds down $1.22 and 1/2 cents. Crude oil down around $7 at this hour in West Texas at $82.35. And the crude for the Brent at $81.82, down $3.70. 02:12 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: Here to talk about these numbers is Curt Kimmel from AgMarket.net for the very last time. Thank you for joining us last week for commodity week. Congratulations on your impending retirement at the end of this week. We do appreciate all that you’ve done for Illinois Public Media and particularly for willag.org over the decades. Curt Kimmel: Well, thank you, Todd. Those are kind words. I’ve enjoyed it tremendously over the years. It’s just unbelievable to have the opportunity to work with you, other brokers and analysts, and among all the listeners out there. It’s been a great pleasure, a great learning experience. I hate giving it up, but I’ve got to draw the line somewhere here and let some younger, smarter people take the helm here, Todd. Thank you. Todd Gleason: It does feel a little bit like the fire horse decided to buck today. And for you to have to say to hopefuls there’s a turnaround Tuesday one more time, I have to admit, what happened in this marketplace? It just really took a dive after, you know, making new contract highs in soybeans last week. Curt Kimmel: Oh boy, yeah, hopefully, we’re not back in the mindset of Mondays being downers, but yeah, it was kind of a mixed opening call last night. There were some ideas we could open steady to a little firm on the weather forecast and continued demand outlooks, but the market held together fairly well. But in the wee hours of the morning, all of a sudden, we rolled over to the downside. Probably the main headline, and it’s debated on who said what or who’s behind what, but if we’re looking at other countries, you know, China particularly has a vested interest in the Black Sea, Red Sea, and seeing transportation move out of those areas, working with Pakistan trying to get the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table. Truth being said, they’re probably both starting to get running low on missiles and drones and stuff, so they’re probably in a position to take a little pause. But we’re back in the mindset here to maybe see these talks take place and slow down and open up the ability for energies and ag products to move through those regions there. Because the whole world needs these products. And if that is to happen, of course, the Southern Hemisphere will benefit from it and other countries around the world. So that would be welcome, but in the meantime, that put the grain market on the defensive. Estimates are that 14,200 contracts of beans were sold, about 11,000 contracts of corn, and about 3,200 contracts of wheat were sold. But we’ve got to remember, from the first part of July until just this last week, corn rallied about 66 cents off the low, and beans were up over $1.30 off the low. So if you just do some simple retracements to correct the overbought status of the market, hopefully here the market will come to its senses, and then we can have a turnaround Tuesday for everybody tomorrow. Todd Gleason: So far this week, we now because of we only have Monday trade, we have an inside trading week. Are you fearful that it won’t stay inside, and if it doesn’t, which way is it going? And you talked about the volume of trade. Does that tell you anything about this market for today? Because if we looked at that in the overnight trade when it was down like 18 cents in November beans, there wasn’t much trade then, but man, it appears there’s been quite a bit of volume since then. Curt Kimmel: Yeah, several factors there is basically, I think we need to hold the 38% retracement. December corn, $4.66 and 3/4, November beans, $12.06 and 1/2—of course, $12 magic number. Part of that too was the August options expired there on Friday, so some of that could have been some positioning of those options and futures coming together. But the key now is to eliminate the oversold status. We took the stairs up, we’re kind of taking the elevator down. So if you count on corn maybe Friday day one, today two, maybe one more day tomorrow to test these support levels and chart gap areas and see if we can’t stabilize. We did see some demand show up. We sold 132,000 tons of beans to China, 126,000 tons of beans to unknown destinations. Export inspections report was fair, so we’re shipping out what we sold. Then too, part of the sell-off was we put a little bit more moisture in the forecast, particularly for the western Corn Belt, so we’ll see what the weather maps say, and more importantly too, world weather maps with France and Spain continuing to experience some extreme temperatures and just a lack of precipitation as a whole. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We appreciate all the decades’ worth of work and we’ll miss talking with you each and every Monday. Though I have to admit, it is really nice to have Logan on Monday mornings on our home station at willag.org. Your son. I do have a love having young list of brokers and folks that have been on the air regularly. We do appreciate that too. Curt Kimmel: Well, thank you, Todd. Those are very kind words, and I’m going to miss y’all. It’s been quite an adventure here. I was fortunate enough to work with some of the icons in the past through the normal office here and also through the station there, Todd. Todd Gleason: Curt Kimmel, of course, is with AgMarket.net. 08:22 Plan Ahead for Fewer Ad Hoc Farm Payments Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, ad hoc support payments coming from Washington, D.C. into farm country since the first Trump administration have been built into the whole of the farm economy, and it’s unlikely they’ll disappear soon. But if those funds are cut off, it could be a problem—a problem farmers should plan for today, says University of Illinois Extension agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey. Gary Schnitkey: And again, you don’t see that happening because we’re talking about making another round of ad hoc payments. If that happened, costs would need to adjust down, and that would include cash rents. And again, that’s not likely, given the current political environment, but that’s sort of the risk that is out there. Todd Gleason: The risk is that cash rents, artificially supported by years of ad hoc federal payments, would remain high even as total farm revenue drops. 09:18 Rural Health Disadvantages in the U.S Todd Gleason: Rural health advantages in the United States have disappeared. A new analysis from the University of Illinois and USDA shows growing health disparities are contributing to workforce challenges across rural America. The report finds adults ages 25 to 54 in rural communities are dying from natural causes at significantly higher rates than their urban counterparts, with cancer, heart disease, and circulatory diseases among the leading causes. Researchers say the trend could have lasting economic consequences by reducing the available workforce needed to support rural businesses and local economies. And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. 10:18 Commodity Markets Discussion with Chad Hart Todd Gleason: I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. We’re now joined by agricultural economist with extension and based at Ames, Iowa at Iowa State University, Chad Hart. Hi, Chad. Thanks much for being with us. And I am so sad that this will be the last time we talk in your official capacity, because you’re retiring next month from ISU, and I really have appreciated having these discussions with you. Chad Hart: I’ve appreciated the time on the air with you as well, and the fun discussions that we’ve had. Todd Gleason: Well, I think we’re going to finish up with a fun discussion because there is so much, so very much going on in the commodity markets today. And by that, I mean all commodity markets across the board, from the energies to the agricultural commodities. Where would you like to start? Chad Hart: Oh, anywhere you’d like, because yeah, there’s a heck of a lot to talk about. And who knew that China joining peace discussions between the U.S. and Iran would be a major driver across all commodities? Todd Gleason: Who knew that? Everything. That was not on anybody’s bingo list, I’m sure. So tell me about the impact of war and, depending on where it is and how that has influenced our summer rallies. Chad Hart: Sure. As we’re looking here, and the thing we’ve got to recognize is that, yeah, war does tend to drive up prices because it constrains how supplies can move around not only the countryside but the globe. And right now, we’re looking at two major wars across the globe. For us in the U.S., we’ve mainly concentrated on the U.S.-Iran conflict there, but we’ve also got to remind ourselves of the Russia-Ukraine war. And in this case, these two wars are centered on two major trade flow areas that we’ve been spending a heck of a lot of time this summer talking about: the Strait of Hormuz, but we’ve also got to remember that the Black Sea region moves a heck of a lot of agricultural product. And when we especially look at this latest rally, it’s this combination of both those conduits got gummed up for a while due to the military conflicts, and that’s what created a lot of emphasis for the rallies we have seen this summer. Todd Gleason: How should producers think about it? Chad Hart: Ah, well, one, that we can’t control it. So it’s this idea of sort of, if you will, riding the waves of opportunity that it provides. We just watched one wave crest, basically over the last week as we look here. And so it’s a matter of making sure that we’re ready to move in the markets if they do happen to move in our favor. This is not a market that’s going to spend a lot of time sitting still. As we’ve experienced throughout this summer, we’ve been up and we’ve been down, and we’ve went both places very quickly. We have taken the elevator everywhere. We have completely forgotten the escalators, it seems. So the idea is that no, we have to be ready to market when the markets are favorable for us, and you don’t have much time to think about it. Todd Gleason: What do you think is favorable? Chad Hart: Ah, to me, it’s more looking at how does that price compare to your cost of production. Is this a time where you’re looking at some cash flow needs on the farm that you’re going to need to pull the trigger over the next couple of weeks? Figuring out where that line is. But as we look here right now, even with the drop in corn, December corn still weighing in at the $4.75 range, we’ve got November beans hanging over $12. These are pretty good prices on the futures side, even after we’ve watched a downward move here. So it can help reconceptualize again, is this a good price that covers the bills on my farm? Todd Gleason: On our programs, and you’ve seen it on others and heard about it too, there have been some numbers that have been bantered around about $6 corn at some point between now and the first quarter. I suppose that could be the case. Is that in your tally card? Chad Hart: Ah, it’s not on my tally card. Can I build the storyline to get us there? Sure, I can. But as I’m looking at what we’re seeing within the fundamentals of these markets, the challenge for the corn market is that we’re still dealing with the record crop from last fall. And as we’re looking forward here, we’re looking at the second largest crop coming at us this fall. That combination of supplies has been enough to overwhelm what has been actually pretty good demand over the past few years. And so while I think we do see, let’s call it better pricing as we’re looking forward over 2026 and 2027, I don’t see us getting to six. I’m hoping to, if you will, slowly build back into the low fives as we’re looking here, because that demand structure, while it is great, so are our potential supplies. And we’ve got that across the board. Soybeans is in the same situation with the possibility of a record crop coming this fall. Todd Gleason: You don’t think that the problems in Europe, particularly with the French corn crop, will eat through that glut fairly quickly? Chad Hart: Ah, I think it’ll pull some, but I don’t know if there’s enough there to necessarily, you know, dramatically pull our prices higher there. It’s this case of when you’re looking there, yep, they are having severe problems. At the same time too, the world has a lot of feed grain available right now. Todd Gleason: What did last Friday’s USDA cattle report tell you, anything? Chad Hart: Ah, one of the things it tells me, and as we’re looking at the cattle market, not only is it down because of what we’re seeing, as you mentioned, sort of across the board, but we are now seeing the signs and the storylines that the cattle herd may be stabilizing. As we look here looking at the cattle report, we saw beef replacement heifers up 3% compared to a year ago. So retention is starting to happen. You combine that with the news story of, you know, talking about opening up the border, bringing a few more feeder cattle back from Mexico. That’s contributing to, we’re bringing some more animals online, and so that’s helping put a cap on where the cattle market is right now. Todd Gleason: Anything we ought to discuss before we let you go? Chad Hart: Um, well, you know, in this case as we’re looking here, I think what we’re seeing here is, like I say, a heck of a lot of volatility. And I think for a lot of farmers, that volatility this summer has worked in our favor as long as we’re willing to take advantage of it when those opportunities arise. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it, and congratulations. Chad Hart: Thank you, sir. Todd Gleason: That’s Chad Hart. He is an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. 17:36 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics Todd Gleason: Let’s check in on the weather forecast now with Mark Russo. He is at EverStream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Thanks much for being with us. I understand earlier in the day that you had a little rain shower, maybe a little volatile weather where you work. Can you tell me about that first? Mark Russo: Yeah, up here in the Chicago area, we had several supercell thunderstorms here come through and producing a myriad of severe weather, anywhere from very heavy rainfall to some dime to golf ball-sized hail, even some radar rotation here indicating potential tornadoes. So after how dry it’s been the past two to three weeks, this is a bit of an unusual situation with the thunderstorm activity, although the setup was there for this development across the region. Todd Gleason: Do you think that rainfall will have soaked in, or has it been dry enough for that to not quite be ready to be received by the soils? Mark Russo: Yeah, well, certainly a percentage went into runoff just because it was raining very hard. I would estimate, you know, one to two inches of rain per hour here. And I would estimate probably at my place anywhere from, you know, three-quarters to around an inch of rain. So I guess the one piece of good news here going forward is that with today’s storms in northeast Illinois, parts of Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, that this is a start of a more favorable pattern here coming up. So any areas that do miss out on rains right now, there will be more opportunities for those rains to soak in as we go through these final days of July and move into early August. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the last week of July and the first few days of August then across the whole of the Corn Belt. What do you see? Mark Russo: Yeah, we are forecasting generally near-normal rainfall totals, which for this time of year equates to around an inch or an inch and a quarter per week across the Corn Belt. And again, starting today with these thunderstorms developing on the periphery of the ridge, there will be more opportunities for that taking place over the next several days. And even as we go into this weekend and on into next week, some additional rainfall opportunities that look to produce near-normal totals for this time of year. So the overall setup across the Corn Belt as we go through these next two weeks, it’s looking markedly different than this drier-biased pattern that’s been in place much of these past two to three weeks. Todd Gleason: Is the western Corn Belt still going to get the really, really hot temperatures that were forecast? Mark Russo: Ah, yes, for a slight period of time. As we’ve seen here, like over the weekend, we saw temperatures climb into the upper 90s and 100s across much of Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and some of the adjacent acreage right along the rivers there in Minnesota, the Red River Valley, and then also further south, Missouri Valley as well. And so that’s still going to continue for another couple of days, but after that, even the far western Midwest will cool down a bit, and kind of the core of heat associated with this ridge of high pressure will then be confined to mainly the High Plains and then even into the Rockies as well. Todd Gleason: So again, why is it that this is taking place? Is it retrograding the high back into where at this point that it’s allowing cold air to spill into the middle part of the United States? Mark Russo: Yeah, it’s all attributed to the ridge of high pressure, which right now is a very strong feature and centered over the Plains. Because it’s strong, it’s encompassing a good portion here of the Corn Belt. But as we go through this week, that ridge will be shifting westward and be then located over the Rockies, in fact, over the Four Corners area by later on this week. And then the ridge will also be in a weakening mode as well. And ultimately that weakening and movement of the ridge, that allows cold fronts to drop southward across the Corn Belt. And we expect that to basically be in place now as we go through this early portion of August. Todd Gleason: Sounds like a typical summertime oscillation. Does the weakening of the high mean anything as it relates to the month of August in general? Mark Russo: Um, not really here, Todd. Um, again, ridges tend to reach their peak strength in late July and early August. And again, this year with some of the ridging, we did see some of that ridging earlier in July be pretty, you know, intense here, especially in and around the Fourth of July holiday weekend. But ridges can still stay strong even into the latter portion of August. And so that’s something to watch here, you know, longer term. Are there any indications that the ridge shifts directly over the Corn Belt later in August? Um, we’re not expecting that right now, but that’s going to be an item to watch here given kind of the history of the ridge this season. Todd Gleason: We’ll check in with you again next week to see if and where it has moved. Thank you much. Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.