Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Banks Just Started to SELL... + Stock Market News 23 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just Started to SELL... + Stock Market News 23 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: morning live stream.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Now, this is not a doom and gloom video, so before you go nuts at me for the headline, I want to share with you the data that we've got from Wall Street, because there are certain people selling.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: There is also some good news, though, to round it off, but I always feel it's important to look at the stuff we don't want to look at.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I could make a video that just is entitled, you know, nvidia, $2 million or something, and we'd get more views for that, but it wouldn't really help you very much, and my mission here is to make you financially free.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately the goal, and for that I think you need to understand what's going on in the market.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So, hopefully, the following will provide some value to you.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: If it does, you know what to do.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Destroy the buttons in front of you.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: So the bad news first.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Good news follows, so stick around for some optimism.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: In late 1999, if you recall that the hedge funds started selling tech stocks very aggressively, and who bought them?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Well, retail people like you and me I bought Biotech in 1999.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't really know what the heck I was doing, and it looked like they were too early to sell, and then, obviously, they made the right decision because the market collapsed afterwards.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying the market's going to collapse here, but it's important when we get similar data points that we understand them.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So, right here, right now, if you get the musical reference, let me know in the chat here.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Right now, if you get the musical reference, let me know in the chat.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: And my whole mind is full of bits of music.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: That's how I learned English.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It's all like, literally it's all phrases from pop songs.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's very, very disturbing.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: We have hedge funds selling quite a lot.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: So they have this thing called the long short ratio, which basically means, well, they are kind of bullish up here or maybe the word is more aggressive, that would be maybe the way I would phrase it Aggressive near the top and down here they are cautious, very cautious, like a cat.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And if you see this illustrated another way, there is a little red line on here which I shall do my best to highlight.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: That red line here is the aggregate hedge fund net flow.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You add together the buying and the selling and you get the flow.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: And what's going on with the flow?
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Well, if you connect the dots, you see the flow is flowing down right.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: So they're selling.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: They're selling fairly aggressively While the S&P is rallying.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Why the heck would they do that?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Well, they take profits.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: They don't just sort of hope and wish and pray it's going to go higher.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: No, they have usually certain rules to take profits on, and that's actually why those guys tend to make money.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: But, but, but.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: If you zoom out a little bit, you might actually find some good news here.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That boy's slim Well done.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: You can tell what year I learned English.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: It's all that late 90s music.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: It's very disturbing up in my mind.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: There's a musical track with it too.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: It's terrible.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: If I could sing, it'd be a nightmare.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Anyway, the total equity fund flows.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: So equity is just a fancy word for stocks, right?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So the total funds, so not hedge funds, but like all the funds together.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: What are we seeing?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Well, we're seeing quite a nice little rally here the 2021 rally, or the 2017 rally, or the 2013 rally.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: What can you see?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you can see, my astute friend, that we are not near the top of the flow, which means we could be flowing a little bit higher.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Right, there should be a song for that, right.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of positive.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So it's possible that more money, especially your money retail money money, market fund money which is a lot of the time.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Your money is going to flow back into the market and we're going to keep going up and up and up and the hedge funds are going to be eating their hats.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: They're not always right, they just have rules and they're cautious.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: How do you make money, generally speaking, with rules and caution, right?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So we are up so far this year on our teaching portfolio by a whopping $28,000.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: That may or may not be a lot of money to you, but if you started out with $30,000, the way we have for this little portfolio, then you'd be rather impressive for your friends because you would have made 93%.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I don't promise you returns, but I promise to show you how I did that and I continue to do that.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: If you would like to join me, literally tomorrow and the day after it's a two-day extravaganza and I'll teach you, basically for free, our three easy rules for potentially making extra money.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: All you gotta do is go to phoenixfriendsorg slash challenge and sign up, grab yourself a seat.
• 5:09
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• 5:12
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• 5:17
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• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So who is fueling the rally?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Well, it's you.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: It's you, my friends and, to a little extent, me.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: It's retail Retail.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: This basically shows you NASDAQ I could spell NASDAQ NASDAQ flows how much money is flowing in, and what we can see is that we are starting to flow in again and the trend since January 2023 is pretty positive again and the trend since January 2023 is pretty positive.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So that is why the market is going up.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: It's retail flows that are actually driving this, not institutions.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Oxy thinks retail isn't strong enough.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: There is a song that starts with strong enough in my mind, but anyway, let's move on.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Apart from the song so positive, but a little bit of a caution there that our hedge fund friends are not feeling quite so good.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: But I think retail that's you and me has reasons for optimism and the reason is that and this is, I believe, from Goldman Sachs you know the lovely furry bankers, fluffy bankers, the kind ones.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: You know the ones who you walk past and they go you want $100?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: You know those kind of people Always there with their charitable giving and you know caring for the little guy that's Goldman Sachs for you, and they're predicting that earnings per share are going to grow 18% for the S&P 500, which is that little staggering rally there, and that would therefore justify stock prices to keep going up and up and up and up some more.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So buying might not be such a bad idea.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So the next 12 months could be beautiful.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Why could they be beautiful?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: If we get no recession?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So if the labor market doesn't collapse, or rather the seasonal adjusters in the labor department stay in their jobs and, you know, manufacturing maybe starts to pick up a little bit despite the FedEx disaster and so on, then if we get no recession, that's an if right, and I actually think that's very likely because I think the government will spend their way out of a recession.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I mean wars and everything else.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: They're great to avoid recessions and make endless amounts of ammunitions in the US and send them abroad, blow them up, and then you just make some more, because there's always an endless war somewhere.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Because, historically, from the first rate cut in the following 12 months, we got somewhere between well, we got a 16% rally in the stock prices, which tallies up quite closely with our 18% predicted EPS growth from the fluffy bankers at Goldman Sachs.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So if there is no recession, the world is wonderful and you'll all be singing off the rooftops and dancing in the rain and all that kind of stuff and you'd be very, very happy.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And the hedge funds are going to be.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: You know what they're going to buy.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: They're going to make some money anyway.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: What did Al Capone invest in?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Hookers, drugs and extortion.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're quite good, quite resilient business models, but not particularly legal nowadays.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Well, drugs are, but you have to be in a pharmaceutical company for that nowadays.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Now there is something big going on right now and that is Intel.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And you might think Intel is over.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Nobody cares anymore.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Remember when Intel was the most valuable chip manufacturer in the world only a few moons ago?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Well, they're in such dire straits that the cockroaches are circling.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I said cockroaches, didn't I?
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: No, I meant cockroaches.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Apollo is originally a distressed asset investor.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: If you watched Pretty Woman, richard Gere is a distressed asset investor.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: They buy stuff, they break it up and they make money out of it and everybody else gets sacked.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: That's where Apollo came from.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: But they've sort of reformed themselves to the modern times and they probably have an ESG department now and they probably have carbon neutral coffee dispensers or something pointless.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: And they are offering Intel $5 billion for shares, essentially as a vote of confidence.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And you might say, why would they do that?
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Well, apollo also financed Intel's European chip plants with, I think, about $10 or $11 billion.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So they're getting quite heavy into the whole chip world.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And it's just days after Qualcomm's are said to have floated a friendly takeover, so we can get one of the biggest M&A deals out there, with two average chip makers trying to make something out of joint misery.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: I guess If you look at the Intel stock chart here, it is a screenshot from Trade Vision in its full glory.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: You had the rather horrific drop here.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Let me zoom in a bit more for you so you can actually see what I'm gawping at.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: That was the earnings event, right, that was the earnings.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Earnings were just horrendous.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So we went down.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: And since then, what have we done?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Well, we've kind of gone nowhere.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: We've just gone sideways, really not really done a lot here.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: There is also, in addition, resistance here at $23 and at $25.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: And that's resistance from the options market and it's pretty big.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: It's about 20,000 options or so just for this week.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: So that red line there at $23 is resistance on the way up and it's hard to break Not impossible to break, but hard to break.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: If I could spell resistance, so would I get in on this.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: No, no, no.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: But you could say but Felix, hang on, if you can see that there was that massive volume on Friday, it wasn't that beautiful, that was just options expiring, that very little to do with Intel.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So, no, it's still a falling knife, it's still a basket case and I wouldn't touch it with a 900-foot barge pole.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Only sovereign chip maker for the USA Well, nvidia can make their stuff for the USA.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Well, nvidia can make their stuff in the USA.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Tsmc is already manufacturing in the US.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Apple chips are now made in the US.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: So all you got to do is give them enough tax incentive and they'll gladly build the plans in the US and make all their stuff there, if that's your concern.