Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Sell Off Over Soon?📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Sell Off Over Soon?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is the selloff over soon Today, we'll break it down.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: A lot happening out there in the market. I do
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: want to thank our sponsor, and that is Tangent, where
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: you guys can get into self custode some super cool deals. Though,
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: you can actually get into some of these limited edition
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: cards for self custody. These work with your phone and
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: it is a place where you can park assets and
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: of course do it in a secure way, get some
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: additional rewards in both bitcoin, and get the limited edition wallet.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Very simple to do. All you have to do is
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: go over to tangent dot com. You too can secure
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: your crypto hardware wallet and do it very easily and
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: super safe. So check it out. Use our link down
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: below to get started. Let's get into a few points
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I want to lead off with, and of course one
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: of the leadoff points will be Tom Lee and where
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: he thinks this market is right now, take a look.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Would you buy the market today?
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I think we're ninety to ninety five percent through
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: the sell off.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: What gives you that confidence?
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Well, I think some of its positioning, and Goldman had
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: a really nice piece of hedge fund positioning, that's right.
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: Their note was basically like look, we've observed a lot
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: of hedge fund selling which looked like capitulation activity to us.
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: So maybe that's run its course. So now you can
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: perhaps build that base back up.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think that's one component. The second is
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: retail sentiments very negative because Aii Bowls Les Bears is
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: minus twenty. That's a tactical sign. The Vics closed above thirty.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: And now I think earning season is going to show
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: earnings probably going to hold up better. And then the
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: last piece there is I think we're just going to
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: have to realize that stocks ten to bottom early in
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: a wartime situation. So we've looked at every war since
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: nineteen hundred, stock's a bottom within the first ten percent
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: of that war. So if this is a you know,
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: two year wards, we're going to bought them pretty early
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: into that process.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: So if you are on Tom Lee's side, let me know.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: If you guys are are you on the back half
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: of this bear market, let me know in the comments
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: down below if you want to follow Jim Kramer, he
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: had a few points three ways the stock market will
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: flip the US or flip if the US and the
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Iranium war ends. I want to highlight a couple of them.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: We saw what could happen if you give piece a chance.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So if we see any kind of piece deal, obviously
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: that's going to be a big thing. He also noted
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that we're starting to see ten year treasuries making a
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: major reversal risk also from higher energy costs, lower odds
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: of the Federal reserve cutting in twenty twenty six, that
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: would be another factor. Other things. He kind of hit
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: it on right here. We didn't know going into war
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: would actually affect our farmers. That's another issue because we're
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: starting to see other commodities fertilizers, etc. That are going
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to affect food supply. These kind of things are the
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: concern I have. So it's raising a lot of concerns
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: also around deal making. So beyond what's happening at Wall Street,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: if you look at the lagging effects that this war
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: may have on supply chain and also some of the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: key supply chain areas such as food supplies, LNG other
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: things that could flow into this. Even if you look
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: at where we are on ground, beef hitting an all
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: time high. These things are happening right now. Now remember
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: all of this happens, then you start to see consumer
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: sentiment impact, then consumer reaction, so we are still a
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: ways out before we start to see retail reaction, which
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: is the bigger area that I'm more concerned with right now.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: What Tom Lee was talking about earlier was the lagging earnings.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: All those are coming from previous quarters which were pretty
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: good for most Fortune five hundred, So that in itself
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: still is an early phase and it could be one
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: of those things where maybe this is nearing the bottom,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: and of course everything hinges on what Trump is going
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: to do. I want to go to another clip real quick,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: because this is where Tom Lee is trying to set
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: up an actual strategy. Take a look Ugly again.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: There's like, no, it doesn't feel like there's an ability
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: for us stock like that in a group that went
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: straight up into the right to find any any stability there.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Megacaps, they haven't looked great at.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: All and the only thing I can find people saying
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: good about them as well.
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: We'll look at their multiples now. Yeah, they've compressed a
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: lot in the pullback.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're in the fire ready aim phase right where
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: any little bad news is going to cause people to
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: de risk. But as you know, that's why the positioning
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: is something to watch because at some point people have
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: gotten too neutral and then less bad things can happen
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: in the market has a V shaped or coverage.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So less bad things too neutral. Then you compile that
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: along with what's happening tonight with President Trump, and this
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: is really going to boil down to the next twelve hours.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: At nine pm Eastern, we'll have Trump delivering a televised
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: speech on Iran. A lot of this is, I think,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: is going to be him just boasting on what they've
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: accomplished and all that. Now, does he get into a
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: ceasefire or an ending of the war, That would be
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: number one. Number two would be, hey, we're going to
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: continue and we're and go into a ground invasion that
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: would absolutely be stifling for markets. And then number three,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I think, which is my prediction, it won't be much important.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I think he'll stump a little bit in the sense
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: of just saying we did all this, we are building,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: we're continuing to show this, but you know, the Iranians
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: are bad and we're dealing with this as we go.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna boil down to that, it's gonna
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: kick the can down the road. We'll see if that changes.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I hope that we get an announcement of some sort
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: of peace deal. That would be huge. Now the Iranian
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: foreign minister they are actually talking about a peace deal,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: not a ceasefire, an actual peace deal ending the war,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: and I think that is a key thing. If we
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: start to see those kind of talks come out, then
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: dare I say, you know, that is one of the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: things that Gramer kind of hit on. But I think
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: everybody kind of knows that that's an obvious Now. There's
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of the things though that play into this,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: and that of course, is where we're dealing with market
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I won't call it, Yeah, I'm gonna call it manipulation
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: because we've seen this manufactured foam, a lot of profiteering
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: that has occurred. You guys have seen this with these
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: radical moves on both oil, some of the defense stocks,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: even in bitcoin and in crypto in general, we've already
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: seen a lot of that. One other thing that is
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: a major issue that resides within this deal is the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: straight up horror moves and the traffic. This has got
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: to return to normal before we exit, and of course
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Trump may be trying to exit without this. I don't
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: know if you guys have been watching what he's doing
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: on True Social but he's actually saying, Hey, the EU
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: and other nation states should get it active and involved
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: in trying to get into diplomatic arrangements. I don't know
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: if that's going to be good enough of you from
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: a lens coming out of the US. If we were
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: to escape or exit this war before the Straight of
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Horror moves is open, that still puts a lot of
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: pressure on the sentiment in the markets in general. And
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick, because
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: can he leave without actually opening the straight This is
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: where they break it.
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: Down, which spoke to the reporting for the Wolf Street
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: Journal that maybe that NDA's hostilities it around without reopening
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: to strait.
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: What do you do with this, Well, maybe you just
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: focus on what's going on in the region. And frankly,
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: every analyst an investor who's come on the show today
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: has said, look at what is feasible, and it is
• 7:17
  Speaker 6: infeasible for the US to pull out for this war
• 7:19
  Speaker 6: to be over without the Strait of removes being a
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: passage of free flow for trade. And that's I think
• 7:26
  Speaker 6: with a lot of people.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Just keep focusing, all right. So one point that they
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: hit on there. First of all, I will say this,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: none of us are war analysts. I think history is
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: going to go and look at this in a very
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: interesting lens in the future. One of the lenses that
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we'll look at is the amount of damage and baggage
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: that it put on the Trump administration. Part of that,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: of course shows up in Trump's sentiment numbers, and the
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: numbers keep trending down from the very top that was
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: the doze fall off. Then we've just continued to see
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Liberation Day, the Justice Department, government shut down, Renee Good,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the Iranian War, all of this has been just down
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and lower lows, you know for sentiment. Now, what does
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: this mean? Can can the market recover without Trump's administration's
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: sentiment recovering? I think it could now will have a
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: long term effect. I think it really depends on how
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Trump tries to repair that going into the midterms, if
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: in fact that they can do that at all. And
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: one of the things that plays into this is where
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the market is starting to showcase Shift talks about it
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: right here. Gold is up another hundred today. Gold Stock's
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: already adding five and that was after a seven percent surge.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Estudre It's not because the war's Oh, it's because investors
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: are realizing, regardless of what Trump is doing in terms
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: of the war progress, it's accelerating the move out of dollars.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Now do you think that is the case. Why haven't
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: we seen bitcoin in these five and seven percent moves?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Is that still a speculative asset and gold is the
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: alternative flight to safety? Let me know what you guys think.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Because gold remember hit fifty four hundred, it has retased
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: down significantly and is now starting to edge back up
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: towards to five k. What could that be. Well, if
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: you look at it right here, futures now surge above
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: forty eight hundred. This is up seven to twenty since
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: March twenty third low and that was the tip of
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the drop that we saw. That now adding three trillion
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: in market. That's the entire crypto market, and that's just
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: since Wednesday, all right, So maybe there is something here.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: If you look at the chart right here, you can
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: kind of see the movement right there from forty three
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: and if you go in the dip that all almost
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: went all the way down to four thousand dollars an ounce,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: and of course that was for a short period of time.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: After some I think market funny business. But right there, one, two, three,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: four days up right now in the daily chart trading
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: at forty seven eighty four at time or recording other things.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: You got to hit on, of course is the fact
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: that Iran is exacting a toll and they're asking for
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: payment in yuon and this is done of course on
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: the transition of chips going through the straight This is
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: for all, I think, all tankers, and this will play
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: a bigger role I think in maybe the negotiations. This
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: might be a negotiation deployed by the Iranians to try
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: to get into a better deal with coming to an
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: agreement with the Trump administration. I want to go to
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: a clip real quick because andre Jik breaks it down
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: on is gold done on this rally or not? Take
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 10:21
  Speaker 7: And in order to get control, you need control over
• 10:23
  Speaker 7: two things, which is oil and gold. For example, Iran
• 10:27
  Speaker 7: has the choke point. It controls the straight up removes,
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: of which twenty percent of the world's oil flows through
• 10:31
  Speaker 7: every day. And Iran is using that leverage to make
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: an offer to the world. Their offer is this, Hey, guys,
• 10:37
  Speaker 7: the strait is actually open. You can pay for your
• 10:40
  Speaker 7: oil in Chinese yuan, and then we'll let your ships
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: through safely. And of course China has the payment rails,
• 10:48
  Speaker 7: so the actual transaction looks something like this. You sell
• 10:51
  Speaker 7: your dollars, you buy your gold, you sell that gold
• 10:54
  Speaker 7: to China in exchange for you on, You take that
• 10:57
  Speaker 7: u on to Iran, and then you buy the oil
• 11:01
  Speaker 7: and your ship gets home safely. So China now gets
• 11:04
  Speaker 7: to sort of be right in the middle of this transaction.
• 11:07
  Speaker 7: It gets to decide the exchange rate between gold and oil,
• 11:12
  Speaker 7: which means China is deciding what the dollar is worth
• 11:16
  Speaker 7: relative to everything else. And Iran has created a toll
• 11:20
  Speaker 7: booth for the whole world, and the toll booth has
• 11:23
  Speaker 7: to be paid in you on, which is paid in gold.
• 11:26
  Speaker 7: Now there is a problem.
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: Though.
• 11:28
  Speaker 7: The oil market makes about four point one trillion dollars
• 11:32
  Speaker 7: worth of oil every year. It's a lot, and the
• 11:35
  Speaker 7: entire gold market makes only about four hundred and eighty
• 11:39
  Speaker 7: five billion, which means the oil market is roughly nine
• 11:42
  Speaker 7: times bigger than gold. The demand shock to gold could
• 11:47
  Speaker 7: be unlike anything the market's ever seen, because the gold
• 11:49
  Speaker 7: market is just too small to absorb oil without the
• 11:53
  Speaker 7: price moving in a very big way.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it, And this of
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: course plays out if in fact, the current situation handles
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: for a year. In other words, that we continue to
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: see the demand of Chinese you on being the transitory
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: asset that's trying to enact you purchasing oil, that would
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: happen for a year. That would put continued pressure on
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the dollar, and of course put more assets into gold.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And I think this is going to be one that
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: we'll see if this plays out that way or if
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: something is negotiated, because this could be a big negotiating
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: ploy by Iran to get the administration in the right place.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: All right, So the real question here is what does
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: this do to assets? When you look at securities but
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: also risk, One of the things that you have to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: compare to is what if the securities market continues to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: trend down, gold goes up, what happens to risk. Well,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: here's Warren Bruffett baking that down.
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: Well, let's talk about that the market has come down substantially.
• 12:54
  Speaker 8: You've loved substantially.
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: Well, you've got both the Dow and the Nasdaq and
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: correction territory. It's the worst performance on a quarterly basis
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: for stocks in about four years. Do things look cheaper
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: to you?
• 13:06
  Speaker 8: No, three times since I've taken over. For sure, it's
• 13:14
  Speaker 8: going down more than fifty percent. I mean, if you
• 13:18
  Speaker 8: look at the markets of oh, the worst probably was
• 13:23
  Speaker 8: the two thousand and seven eight period, although there was
• 13:27
  Speaker 8: that one Monday when you had twenty one percent in
• 13:29
  Speaker 8: a day. I mean, this is nothing.
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, this is nothing to make you get excited
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: and think there's a huge valuation.
• 13:39
  Speaker 8: If they're five or six percent cheaper, that doesn't We
• 13:44
  Speaker 8: aren't in a to make five or six percent.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: The point that I think Warren's getting at is that
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: we are in a position where we could see volatility still.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Yet you look at the front end of the show,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: it's Tom Lee, kind of the new innovation of investors saying, no,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: we're we're nearing the bottom. You look at guys who've
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: been around almost one hundred years, you know, since the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: nineteen twenty nine crashes. We've seen he says, he's seen
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: that before. The real question is is does all of
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: this play into gold, How the AI play comes into this,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: and you look at risk assets, all that is really
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: centered around what's happening right now in the macro market,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: and all Boys boils down to a meeting tonight at
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: nine o'clock, so we're going to cover that and more
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: so stick around for that. If you like this video,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: join our free private member group. The link is in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the description.