Latest / Saving the World From Bad Ideas / Bad Idea #47 "Geothermal energy is niche" with Terra Rogers

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Bad Idea #47 "Geothermal energy is niche" with Terra Rogers · Saving the World From Bad Ideas

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The world has heard of geothermal.
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They have often at times picked it up and looked at it and come
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to the conclusion quite quickly that it's not for them because
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they don't have it. It is really truly hot
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everywhere. It's now just a matter of can we
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access it with drilling technologies we have.
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The geothermal industry can do this without the oil and gas
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industry. It's just if we want to do it in
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a timeline that matters for climate, we need to do it with
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their assets. Welcome to saving the world from
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bad ideas. I'm Mark Linus, and I've had a
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few bad ideas in my time. I used to go out in the night
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time to destroy GMO crops, and I also posed nuclear power.
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But then when I looked at the science, I found I got it wrong.
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Oops. I've learned the hard way that
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none of us are right all the time.
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So now I'm here to challenge the assumptions that we all too
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often take for granted because the future depends on us getting
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it right. Welcome to another edition of
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Saving the World from Bad Ideas. My guest today is Tara Rogers,
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who has probably the coolest job title I've come across for a
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long time. Tara, apparently you're program
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director of a super hot rock geothermal at Clean Air Task
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Force. So, well, cool title, or hot
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title should I say, but either way, welcome.
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Thank you. It's great to be here.
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Well, it's great to have you. Obviously the first question is
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the one we always put and, and that's the theme of the show is
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we're saving the world from bad ideas.
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And I'm not sure exactly what the bad idea is here.
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Maybe it's that geothermal only works in volcanic areas or
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something like that. So it's, it's a very
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geographically restricted technology in that it works in
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Iceland, it works in Kenya, it works maybe in Japan.
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But places where you've got volcanoes really close and
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you've got heat, you know, very close to the Earth's surface.
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And as I understand it, the approach you've got with super
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hot is, is somewhat different, right?
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So just give us the absolute basics.
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Assume I know nothing, which is actually quite true.
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I pretty much do know nothing. I'm certain that's not true.
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I, you know, we are both blessed and cursed with over 100 years
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of operating data, right? The world has heard of
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geothermal. They have often at times picked
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it up and looked at it and come to the conclusion quite quickly
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that it's not for them because they don't have it.
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And so that is our burden. But the best part of it is that
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we also, though ultimately have 100 years of operating data to
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show that it works. So what has changed in the world
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to make this sort of relevant and a part of the discussion,
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both from climate and maybe even more prescient is the size and
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the demand of electricity coming at us.
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So what changed? The short answer is we looked to
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the way that oil and gas and sort of fossil fuel hydrocarbon
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recovery looked at shale. They went straight to the source
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rock. So previously these groups were
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looking hunting and pecking for pockets of oil.
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We and the geothermal industry were hunting and pecking for
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pockets of water that are naturally existing.
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They often previously and what is the past 100 years
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conventional way of geothermal. We're looking for places where
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tectonic plates are either separating and pulling apart.
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Sometimes they are running into each other and buckling and all
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of those scenarios. It offers a place for a heat to
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be shallow. That's number one, criteria 2 at
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the rock be permeable so be able to hold water and three,
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actually have the meteorological water there heating up.
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Now what changed again is looking to that fossil fuel
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industry and saying they want to source rock.
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Can we go to source rock using a lot of the same techniques?
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We now no longer have to look for candidly B or C, right?
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That the water or the permeability.
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You can bring your own water to a heat source, cycle it through
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the rock, bring it to the surface and create power and
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then be injected kind of like 2 straws and a sponge.
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You plop them in, you create your subsurface radiator and
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then you cycle the water through it.
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So that is what's changed is our ability to bring your own
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reservoir where you need it. And the good news is that it is
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really truly hot everywhere. It's now just a matter of can we
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access it with drilling technologies we have.
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So what's changed here? I mean, this heat has always
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been there, but previously geothermal's only been in in
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these very geographically restricted areas where, as you
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say, you've got heat very close to the surface and you've got
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water as well. And in fact, I've been in that
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blue lagoon in Iceland. And so that's natural water,
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which is being heated volcanically.
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And they're just basically pumping it up and running it
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through a turbine and generating electricity, right?
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That's right. And that is the conventional
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form. So you see, you point to
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Iceland, Japan has quite a bit, New Zealand, some parts of
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California. What has changed is now we are
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no longer needing to look for the natural pockets of water,
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but rather we enter a, we'll call it just a Greenfield where
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you can drill in the subsurface, create your reservoir, your
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radiator, your subsurface radiator and inject your own
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water to cycle through it. You don't have to find that
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natural pocket, but rather you can create your radiator
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wherever you can find heat. And in this case, again, that
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drilling technology is really progressing quickly.
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And that's hypothetically we should be able to reach heat
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even as great as we'll say 1520 kilometers as technology
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progresses. Today, we're limited closer to
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5:00 to 10:00. Well, we'll just say 5 to 7
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kilometers. So look how hot is it 5 to 7
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kilometers down? If you're not, If you're nowhere
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near involved, volcanium in the middle of a continent, let's
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say, and it's it's a pretty cool and tectonically inactive place,
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like what kind of temperatures can you get at the absolute
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maximum depths that you can drill with with current
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technology? In the US West, which is where
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we're seeing most of the technological progress happening
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at a commercial scale at 5 kilometers, you're likely to see
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something between 150 and 200 Celsius.
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Now as you move, let's just say and and that is broadly true for
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a lot of areas in different continental shelves and tectonic
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domains. However, if we're going to use
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them, the US as an example, as you move east of the Rockies,
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say you are still targeting that 5 kilometer depth, you're more
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likely to come up with something closer to 100, maybe even 80
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depending on we refer to what is the temperature gradient.
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So right now the sweet spots, that is to say our first of kind
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locations are highly likely to be in areas where either the
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crust is thin or the heat is pushing up due to other forces
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like magnetic anomalies. But ultimately we expect to be
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able to drill to depth and that kind of gets to the Super hot
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aspect of the goal. While we can create power from
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even as low as 150 Celsius, the efficiency of the equipment at
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surface when you are moving that hot water and steam through a
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turbine is lower. The efficiency is lower at lower
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temperatures. So as you creep up that
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temperature gain, you are able to take advantage of higher and
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higher efficiencies and therefore need also fewer wells.
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So ultimately, the higher the temperature, the higher the
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quality of your resource and the lower ultimately we expect the
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cost to be. And and how hot does it have to
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be to be really efficient? And I've heard it terms
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supercritical, which is sort of like Huffle between water and
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liquid and gas, right? Tell us like about why that's
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such an important sort of efficiency differential.
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Yes, it really is. You joked earlier the name Super
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Hot and I have to go on record it is a scientific term,
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although you know, dealing with, we'll call it connotations from
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movies like Superbad makes it a little bit.
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So if you put, if you put super hot on your LinkedIn profile or
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maybe your dating page, I don't know, you're married.
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You know, if you get some, you get plenty of clicks, I'm sure.
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We have also found that the translation definitely leads to
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a bit of obscurity, but the reason that's super hot, super
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heated, in fact, actually is, is that is the more appropriate
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term is the form of getting to the temperature associated with
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supercritical phase. So, you know, most of us
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remember moving through the high school, maybe middle school
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science lessons where you have, when you go from solid to liquid
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to gas, very few of us know that there's a fourth phase that is
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supercritical phase. So you solid liquid gas and then
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supercritical and that that supercritical phase your water
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is acting simultaneously like a liquid in the form of the energy
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density is thick while also as a gas and that it moves with so
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much, so much permeability that you actually can extract
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significantly more energy from a supercritical liquid.
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So that ultimately is the target supercritical temperatures and
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temperatures for pure water is 374°C.
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Now we tend to round up when having conversations around
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general targets to 400 primarily also because we expect the water
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to have a significant amount of minerals and salts that could
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change that supercritical temperature.
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But that ultimately gets to the the supercharge that comes with
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that target resource. Getting to 400 means that you
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are now able to take advantage of years, hundreds of years of
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turbine research and optimization so that you are
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squeezing as many electrons out of the same volume of liquid
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that basically the most that you possibly can.
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And so that is that the ultimate goal.
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However, there are very few targeting that temperature yet.
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The good news is they are and they are the groups that have
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been that have that 100 plus years of experience.
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These are Iceland and Japan and New Zealand who have actual
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operating experience at that and our and understand that the ROI
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in those to the return on investment from super critical
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resources is the best is the optimized form Oh.
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I mean, excuse my geological ignorance here, but what
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temperature is magma? Like when rock actually goes
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liquid under the Earth's crust? Is that that's more than 400,
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right? Like 1000 or something.
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I So there's a spectacular project in Iceland referred to
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as the CRAFA Magnetic Test Bed, whose ultimate goal is to better
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understand those temperatures and to see if there are actual
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geothermal opportunities in that space.
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Please don't quote me on this, but I recall 1400 as being a
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general target in that space. Right, which is hot enough
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probably to melt your drilling bit and you.
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Know and everything else. Yeah, right.
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So, so the sweet spot is kind of 400 ish and just give us a sense
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really of, of how that works. I mean, you can, you can you
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just drill into 400° C hot rock and sticks and pipes down there
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or, or maybe they even use fracking.
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Tell me whether that's the technology, which is, I don't
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know whether you call it that, but basically fracturing the
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rocks so that it becomes more permeable and then water can
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flow through it. Like just give me a bit more
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sense of how the whole thing works.
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Yeah, I'm going to approach it through so common phrases,
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technology readiness level TRL. So as you are thinking about the
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technologies that we need to mature in order to safely a
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access 400 and then B, operate at 400, we kind of break them
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down into 5 distinct categories. 1 is the penetration, the
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drilling action of getting to that temperature.
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So can my drill bits last, can my casing while drilling
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basically stay in place? And also more importantly in
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this case actually is can I see what I'm doing sort of being
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able to use instrumentation to have informed decision making
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while drilling. So those are the areas that are
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specifically instrumentation and being able to read the data
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coming in from, from the well depth that is one of the bigger,
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we'll call it less mature, bigger opportunities for
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investment and technology improvement in that, in that
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penetration in the accessing and the second aspect you mentioned
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sort of the creation and management of the fractured
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networks. So yes, that is one way you know
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that has been sort of wrought to bear at scale by the forge group
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in Utah and then to commercial by Fervo.
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And that concept of creating fractured networks is, is really
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leveraging the expertise that came from the shale gas
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revolution and being able to drill horizontally and to create
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these fractured holes so that when you do in that straw and
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sponge analogy, inject into one, it will move through a route and
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then be produced from the other. Now technologies that we need to
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invest in in that space are those that can withstand the
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temperatures and sometimes pressures and pressure is a bit
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is not of the highest concern. It is the ability for our well
14:21
casing to be able to withstand as you know when things get hot
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they expand and when they cool down they contract.
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So the being able to put everything in place at one
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temperature and then allow the the materials to expand into
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their full time high temperature location is 1 of the areas of
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opportunity. Also cement that cements are
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needed both to hold your casing together as well as to adhere
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your casing to the Rockwall. And at these high temperatures
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the cements tend to break down. So those are good opportunities
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for both investment technology to be able to do this over and
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over. 3rd category is in our surface equipment.
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So when you are producing from these wells surface equipment,
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we've been building this for any number of electricity
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manufacturing companies from from nuclear to gas.
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We're operating at these temperatures.
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What is unique about geothermal is that it's highly likely to
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have a lot of mineral content that can be quite corrosive to
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that metal geofluid interface. So that's an opportunity to also
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invest and and improve to drive down cost.
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This is the major ones that we need to do better.
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However, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Mazama has
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a company that is operating in the South side of Oregon, South
15:47
end of Oregon and they have recently put out news releases
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around their ability to create that fracture network as high as
15:54
330 Celsius and intend to go higher very shortly.
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And is there an issue with earthquakes or tremors or
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anything with that kind of fracture going on?
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I mean, because that's obviously something which would be a
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concern for local communities and so on.
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I mean, what's, what's the latest science there?
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Yes. So in this case, I'm really my
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hat's off to two distinct research facilities or
16:20
institutes, one in Switzerland and then of course in one in the
16:25
US when looking at seismic risk. The good news is, is that it is
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the science is there to be able to monitor and control.
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So with adequate landscaping and adequate research in advance to
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understand the subsurface tension, we should be able to
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put in place techniques that monitor and control for that.
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So the short answer is we have the techniques to be able to
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watch for it and control the possibility of unfelt and felt
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seismicity does exist and that's why good strong regulation like
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any industry should be in place in order to to protect against
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that. You mentioned nuclear bits ago
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and I think 4 hundreds even hotter than than your normal
17:17
nuclear reactor, right, Which is about, I don't know 150 or
17:20
somewhere in a pressurized environment, somewhere above the
17:24
boiling point of water, but not that far above.
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So this is, this is really quite, quite promising in that
17:31
it's, it's very useful having, having something which is that
17:34
hot. I mean, you can use, use it
17:36
potentially in chemicals or, you know, or, or as you say, it
17:40
increases the, the efficiency at which you produce electricity.
17:43
So is, is this a potential competitor to nuclear in that
17:47
you've got like 24/7 power? It doesn't have the
17:50
intermittency issue with renewables.
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It's not, it's not releasing carbon.
17:54
So it doesn't. So it's a, it's a clean
17:56
technology. I mean, this is something you
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see being able potentially to be deployed at scale around the
18:02
world in a, you know, in a really quite important way.
18:06
The so just one point, I am not a nuclear expert.
18:11
However, I do believe that the temperature span operating in
18:16
nuclear is can be much higher. So, but it is there are comps
18:21
and the reason I know this or have been looking into it is
18:24
because of the potential to create industrial hubs in which
18:29
we are Co locating these electricity manufacturers.
18:33
So if that is a super hot project or a nuclear plant, they
18:37
also come with the potential of using that cascading heat for
18:42
industrial heating purposes. So for example, there's a
18:46
spectacular plant in Iceland that I will not try to pronounce
18:50
its name in which post a turbine that water then goes on to a
18:56
service bioceuticals company and then onto a DAC plant and then
19:00
on to melt the streets of Reykjavik before it is
19:04
reinjected and done all over. So this hub concept within
19:07
nuclear and geothermal is the reason I'm familiar with it and
19:10
I and I think that we should look deeper at creating these
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stronger cycles and efficiencies.
19:18
Now, now going back to is it a competitor?
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The short answer is demand is impossible to predict.
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And the only thing we all agree on is that it's going up and at
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what pace, we don't know. Now nuclear's technology
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readiness level is, is higher, right?
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We, we know that they can stamp these out at various price
19:40
points across the world. There are benefits to geothermal
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that nuclear does not have. So there's certainly there's no
19:47
fuel associated with geothermal where you drill it, you can have
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it. It is fully a domestic fully
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secure, fully reliable firm source.
19:56
So certainly that is going for it, but in the context of being
20:00
a competitor. I actually just see it as more
20:04
shots on goal. I can't imagine a scenario where
20:07
we don't need both. Yeah.
20:09
I didn't mean competitor in a bad sense.
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I meant, you know, it could be a compliment as much as anything.
20:13
I just meant it's a similar sort of technology in that it's like
20:17
potentially 24/7 carbon free base load.
20:19
That's right. Agreed.
20:20
Yeah, which is, which is which is a very valuable thing to
20:23
have. I can imagine them Co locating
20:24
with these giant data centers and you know what places where
20:28
you need this firm supply of clean electricity.
20:32
But you mentioned about the price point and obviously that's
20:34
that's the key issue with nuclear these days.
20:36
I mean, other than the fact it costs a huge amount, I think
20:40
it's the, you know, one of the best energy sources out there.
20:44
But do you have any sense of the likely cause subsidy or in very
20:48
sort of early development stage for super hot geothermal?
20:52
Do you have any idea of what the cost might turn out to be?
20:56
Absolutely. So the good news is that we have
20:59
some power purchase agreements in play today in the Western
21:04
states at lower temperatures that help us know that upward
21:07
bound or the probable upward bound.
21:09
So we expect that enhanced geothermal systems.
21:13
So that's where you create with this fracture out could operate
21:16
anywhere between we'll call it 150 U.S. dollars per MW hour all
21:21
the way down potentially to I've even I've heard estimates to as
21:24
low as 50. But so that's the range that
21:27
we're looking at there when we have modeled out the cost
21:31
savings associated with a more efficient surface equipment be
21:37
fewer wells because you are pulling more from one well.
21:41
And then see the global manufacturing, the standard, the
21:47
cost driver around standardization, the same thing
21:50
that drove solar panels cost way down by by increased
21:55
manufacturing. All of those we believe will
21:59
push super hot geothermal to be competitive with any other
22:03
source of electricity in unsubsidized markets once it is
22:07
an NTH of kind. So that is to say in the 20 to
22:10
$40 a MW hour space. Well, that sounds pretty decent.
22:14
I mean that's competitive with with solar and you know,
22:17
potentially well we'll certainly wind as well.
22:19
So it's, it's, it's down there. In that case is the very rapid
22:23
deployment scale. If you can, if you can get
22:25
there, I mean, presumably there's still more work to be
22:29
done. I mean, you, you said that you
22:30
haven't quite managed to get to these depths where you've got
22:32
this, this super hot rock. Any idea of the, of the time
22:36
scales here? Like is this a, this is like
22:38
fusion where it's almost 30 years away or is it maybe 10-15
22:42
like some of the new SMR nuclear things or is it, you know,
22:46
tomorrow like solar and wind currently are?
22:48
I don't want to be Pollyanna here.
22:50
The when we look at the technology gaps to be able to
22:53
execute super hot rock wells repetitively in multiple
22:58
ethologies, multiple regions. Our gap table is literally 7
23:04
feet tall if you want to read it without a magnifying glass.
23:07
There are a lot of technology innovations that need to happen.
23:11
Now, I would not bucket it in the same category of fusion
23:18
because all of those technology solutions that are needed are
23:22
ones that truly just need investment in engineering
23:25
iteration. There's no breakthrough here.
23:28
This is understanding the size of the market and making
23:32
investment in engineering solutions.
23:34
Things like choosing better metals to actually perform at
23:38
these. We have pizza ovens that operate
23:41
at higher temperatures. We just need to show the size of
23:44
the market to justify the investment in both the
23:46
technology and more importantly at this point is the deployment.
23:51
Even at temperatures accessible today, one of the biggest
23:55
drivers in reducing cost is being able to optimize the well
24:01
field. So imagine a manufacturing like
24:05
the first model A cost an absurd amount, the thousandth did not.
24:10
And that is also true for how we are learning to both complete
24:14
wells in field and in separate fields.
24:17
So the short answer and timeline is it's all dependent on
24:20
investment, but it is not dependent on scientific
24:24
breakthrough. Like what's the hottest?
24:26
Never mind about the depth. I understand the depth is
24:28
another issue. You've got down to 5 kilometers,
24:30
you maybe need to get to 10 or 12, you know, ultimately.
24:32
But where you've got shallow super hot rocks like and you
24:36
said in the Rockies and places or Iceland or Japan, I don't
24:39
know like what what's the hottest geothermal well which is
24:45
currently operating anywhere in the world and what what
24:47
temperature is that? Yeah.
24:49
So we have documented well over two dozen that have gone over
24:53
400 Celsius. I think the most productive
24:57
field in the upper three hundreds is in Japan.
25:02
Now these are conventional fields that naturally have that
25:05
naturally occurring resource, but operate at these higher,
25:09
higher temperatures, I don't know the hottest.
25:13
I would venture to guess, however, that the Lardorello
25:16
field in Italy, which is not operating, they closed it and
25:19
might have been one of the hottest at 500.
25:22
Again, don't quote me on that, but we have multiple wells we
25:25
can complete and drill to 400. But the operating anomalies need
25:32
to be standardized so that we don't lose them to material
25:37
failures like cement. And tell me what what your work
25:40
is at clean Air Task force on this because you're not focusing
25:45
on technologies like wind and solar, which are audit out there
25:47
at vast scale and are being, you know, increased by, you know,
25:52
hundreds of gigawatts every single year.
25:54
You're you're focusing on this because it's it's almost more
25:57
like a moon shot, right? It's a potential, it's a
26:00
technology with huge potential and there's enormous resource
26:03
out there. Obviously, though, there's no
26:04
shortage of heat, you know, tectonic heat on the planet, but
26:08
it's, it's not quite there technologically and it needs
26:10
that extra push, right? So what what are the kinds of
26:13
things that you do at Clean Air Task Force to try to get it kind
26:16
of over the line and into this operable space?
26:19
You've I think you've captured all of the sort of the key
26:23
points to when Clean Air Task Force leans into a technology
26:27
solution. We do need to believe it could
26:29
be transformative. We need to be we are need to be
26:32
reasonably certain that it is tractable or possible, but also
26:36
it needs to be nascent. We need to know that my shoe
26:38
leather is really going to make a difference in in pushing this
26:41
along. But you also find across our
26:45
portfolio is a color a very clear eyed perspective on the
26:50
value of reliability in our grids.
26:52
So you'll see that a lot of our technologies do often lend
26:55
toward firm solutions. This is not to come at the cost
27:00
of our intermittent, but to complement and create systems
27:03
that can ultimately drive down costs across the full with them
27:06
all. So those are the way that we
27:08
choose. Now the way that we operate
27:11
specifically within geothermal, we measure a lot of our
27:15
priorities against three distinct home problem statements
27:19
or pillars. 1 is do we have the policy environment that can
27:24
enable this because ultimately in geothermal is as far from any
27:27
exception the early stage investments to demonstrate these
27:34
are very expensive. This is not an 8 1/2 sheet of
27:38
paper or solar cell that you can walk out your window and
27:41
measure. This is a well that costs 5 to
27:45
$10 million to even be able to test your equipment in.
27:49
So the upfront costs are high. Now the benefit to a society our
27:56
great and that's why policy really matters because this is
27:59
offering jobs also really strong expansion and our transition
28:04
opportunities for existing workforces.
28:07
A lot of the experts that are driving this next generation
28:10
geothermal transformation are coming straight out of the
28:14
expertise that exists in our classic oil gas power systems.
28:20
So the good news is, is we have a fully trained workforce ready
28:24
to go. So that's one we look at policy,
28:26
the other is we look at investment because ultimately if
28:29
this can't stand alone at this, this isn't enticing enough based
28:32
on its financial opportunity, then it's a permanent Band-Aid
28:36
and that's that's not sustainable solution.
28:39
So when you asked me the cost that is ultimately the way that
28:45
we measure the efficacy of our work.
28:48
Do we believe it can be competitive in unsubsidized
28:52
markets if we do and I then it is a go.
28:55
And so how do we enable the financial markets, the large
28:58
institutions and the early stage investors to find ways to
29:02
finance together to get companies and technologies from
29:07
A to B, from from bench to commercialization?
29:10
And then the third way that we do a lot of business or that we
29:13
that we lean into this space is by looking at the research
29:18
itself. So I mentioned this 7 foot gap
29:20
table. So this is where we will use
29:24
PhDs in high temperature geochemistry to look at some of
29:27
the technology solutions and say this is 1 where if we just put a
29:32
little more emphasis or created a collaboration here, we are
29:35
likely to get from A to B faster.
29:38
So we do research, we do policy and we and now we're looking at
29:42
de risking finance. Right.
29:44
I mean, I mean, I'm in the UK, just on the Welsh borders.
29:49
It's dark at the moment. Look outside, it's completely
29:51
pitch black. There was a bit of sunshine
29:53
today and my solar panels delivered 4 kilowatts and I even
29:56
got some into the battery. But I still struggle to believe,
29:59
and this goes for Poland and Germany and all the, you know,
30:01
particularly northern Europe especially, I still struggle to
30:04
believe that solar and batteries, however good they get
30:07
or however cheap they get, can like run us through the winter.
30:10
These dark, cold months, especially there's no wind.
30:13
And so obviously nuclear has always been, you know, they've
30:15
kind of fall back. And if you're interested in
30:18
carbon free, but I can imagine that that this would also do the
30:22
same job. But the question is like whether
30:25
you whether you're ever going to get to the situation where you
30:27
can be in Germany or Poland or somewhere which is really not
30:30
very, not very volcanic or the UK for that matter.
30:34
And whether you can get to the kinds of depths where you can
30:37
get like geothermal power to the, to the scale that you need,
30:42
I mean, I don't know. So I kind of believe you.
30:46
And I don't see why there's any fundamental problems like that
30:49
seem to be fundamental problems with fusion to me.
30:51
Like we like we mentioned, but I can't see why there's any
30:53
fundamental problems. There's engineering challenges
30:56
which will probably be solved. Whether they can be solved at a
30:58
reasonable cost and we can end up deploying, I don't know.
31:00
But am I, am I right about this in the kind of general sense
31:03
that this might actually be something that that that stands
31:07
in? So that is certainly the our
31:10
expectation and the trends that give us hope would put we'll you
31:14
know, we'll go back to that the the penetration technology.
31:17
So how were we drilling? Because that's really what
31:20
accesses broader swaths of the world.
31:23
If we can get deeper in areas that have really thick
31:26
continental crusts. So it what are the trends that
31:30
give me hope? So First off, what really gives
31:33
me the most hope are the is the data that we're seeing coming
31:37
from Forge to the frontier of research and geothermal energy
31:41
in Utah. They have over the last 2-3
31:46
years demonstrated a near 50% cost decrease.
31:50
Now that in combination with Firvo that is now doing
31:54
commercial operations there, what used to take the geothermal
31:58
industry in your at least 60 days you call with rig on on
32:03
hold, what used to take us 60 days now takes us 15 days.
32:07
So we are seeing huge changes. What we never really tried at
32:12
scale before was, was they call it Hard Rock drilling.
32:18
They have a lot of data and softer rock, more sedimentary
32:21
rock. And so that we lacked the
32:24
confidence that we would be able to drill to depth without some
32:30
of this Hard Rock data. And so, so far the trends are
32:32
very promising. Now there's going to be a moment
32:36
where our rig capacity, the weight in which you can hang a
32:41
drill string with torque into a well, we're going to we're going
32:46
to Max out. And so there are now this is
32:48
where this is the second trend, but is a little bit sort of we
32:53
need to wait and see are technologies that include things
32:56
like lasers and plasma to help destroy the rock without having
33:04
the weight of what is just a Rotary drill to grind and
33:08
remove. So these are the two things that
33:11
give me hope that places like Germany and France could be
33:16
deploying geothermal at scale for much of their firm needs.
33:21
Also for what it is worth, the UK does have a really great
33:25
hotspot in your South end and I think it's near Cornwall.
33:30
Yeah, I think Tim, Tim Smith, my friend who runs, who started the
33:35
Eden Project throughout the geothermal well, don't know much
33:37
about it, but he's a, he's a big enthusiast and it's nice to give
33:42
a shout out to him in this, in this podcast.
33:44
And I hope, hope the project's going well.
33:45
I want to understand a bit more about the scale of the
33:49
individual plants, if you like. So like a big nuclear plant is,
33:53
you know, a GW or something like that.
33:55
Same for coal, same for gas, I guess.
33:58
And you've even got GW scale solar farms now in, you know, at
34:02
least in at least in sunny, sunny places in China or in
34:06
deserts and so on. But these these are smaller,
34:09
right? I mean, even if you even if you
34:11
get down to the depths and you get the heat, they're not,
34:14
they're not to that kind of that, that kind of scale, are
34:17
they? Historically, that is true, but
34:20
I want to be careful that we're not conflating the size of those
34:25
natural pockets of water, the hydrothermal resources with the
34:28
reason to limit the size of those plants.
34:32
So now if we look forward at, again, we don't have a lot of
34:35
data points in this next generation dry rock drilling,
34:39
but the one data point we do have is 500 megawatts being sold
34:44
from Forvo to California. So we're getting up there inside
34:48
and I think that the size of the plant is a really important
34:52
question. Not only can we reduce the
34:54
overall cost of electricity coming from that plant by just
34:58
leveraging we'll call scale, right.
35:02
So we only need one cooling tower and a cooling tower that
35:05
is twice the size is not twice as expensive.
35:08
So there there's some some cost savings around that, but that
35:12
also applies to a turbine. When we were attempting to model
35:16
that the cost at NTH of kind, we looked to existing energy
35:22
producers that have been doing this for, you know, quite a
35:25
while coal, gas. We looked where did they
35:29
standardize on large scale turbines.
35:32
And so we attempt, we modeled it off of what we saw on those
35:35
trends. And I, I expect that we will see
35:38
turbines and in the 100 to 200 possibly higher standardized
35:43
size so that we could be looking at one GW producing plants.
35:48
And the good news is some very similar to nuclear.
35:51
It doesn't take a lot of land. This looks like a high school
35:54
campus when you're done. Yeah, no, that's AI mean also
35:57
ecologically, which is something which, you know, interests me
35:59
more than anything. If you can reduce the amount of
36:03
land that's being used for, for energy, then then that's
36:06
brilliant because you've got, you know, land speed for, for
36:09
rewilding or for food production or for, for whatever.
36:12
But what, what's the limitation on on scale then, whether it's
36:15
like 500 megawatts or one GW means it is it a matter of how
36:18
much heat is down there and that when you extract the heat, it
36:22
gets a bit cool and you've got to wait for the heat up again?
36:24
Or is the limitation that it's about how much water you can
36:27
literally drill you can pump down there that then comes back
36:30
up as steam? The short answer it is, it is
36:33
not heat. The heat flux from the Earth is
36:36
renewable, continuous, sort of the reservoir or the radiator
36:40
that you create in your subsurface.
36:42
That is the surface area that you can manufacture either
36:46
through fracture networks or through rock pipelines.
36:50
That is the defining feature of how much power you're going to
36:54
push. So this is where we are entering
36:58
theoretical space. But heat is not the restrictor
37:02
and your Geo fluid is just you know how much water you
37:06
circulate is a function of how many wells and how many fracture
37:09
clouds you create. So the short answer is we don't
37:13
know the top limits and that is why I had to look to other
37:18
industries to try to figure out where they chose to to optimize
37:23
their large equipment sales. But I have, I see no reason to
37:28
say that it is limited either by by heat or working fluid.
37:33
It is many. It is sort of purely the
37:35
definition. Maybe it's more limited by
37:37
transmission, if we're being totally honest.
37:40
And who's like, give me a sense of the enthusiasm out there for
37:45
for this as a potential energy source?
37:46
Like who's invested in it? Is Gates invested in it?
37:49
Is Amazon putting billions into this?
37:51
I mean, is there big money beginning to come into the
37:54
sector now? Mark, I should have these
37:56
numbers memorized and I'm going to apologize in advance.
37:59
The short answer is yes, we're seeing where we have just topped
38:03
a billion. The hyperscalers are engaged.
38:07
Google had a keynote in a position at the most recent
38:10
geothermal trade association to talk about their position in in
38:15
the geothermal space. We have seen quotes from from
38:19
the Gates Foundation and Gates himself discussing how it looks
38:23
and feels like nuclear. So here is another other
38:25
solution that sort of that fulfills this need for firm
38:30
profile electricity. If I'm really honest, where I'm
38:34
most concerned is that we have institutional investors that are
38:40
waiting for more operating data before they jump in with both
38:45
feet and that could come at the cost of being able to satisfy
38:52
the current demand spike. So somebody's going to need to
38:54
satisfy it and and it may not be geothermal if the investors
39:00
continue to wait for more data before they jump in at scale.
39:05
Yeah. You're not talking about venture
39:07
capital then like with funding start up companies, you're
39:10
talking about really big money that.
39:11
I am talking about really big money because what I have found
39:14
is that that the venture side of the investment they're looking
39:20
actively looking at the technology solutions that could
39:23
be deployed. If it's cement or metallurgy or
39:26
perhaps a coating. We're seeing the technology
39:28
providers engage, the technology investors engage.
39:31
We're also seeing some venture in the project level.
39:34
But again coming back to if one well is going to cost between 5
39:40
and 20 depending on the size, the depth etcetera, 5 and $20
39:44
million, the tranches of funding to drill 1020, hundred of these
39:51
really requires institutional funding to get there.
39:55
Right. OK.
39:55
So, you know, you need your pension funds on your really big
39:58
investors in that case you can't, you can't do it with
40:00
power purchase agreements then with you know, big, big
40:03
utilities and is that is that big enough money potentially you
40:05
said there was a PPA already with the geothermal.
40:09
Outfits that's already producing, right?
40:12
Yes. So this a power purchase
40:14
agreement is at this point primarily coming from US
40:18
utilities primarily out of California.
40:20
And these are commitments to buy electricity at a certain price.
40:24
And presumably that price point offers the producer adequate
40:30
return to take on the risk to pull it off.
40:33
In this case, it's because they're often public entities.
40:37
They don't often take an equity stake in the actual development.
40:41
So despite having a commitment to buy hundreds of megawatts of
40:45
electricity, that is not quite enough to get some of these new
40:49
companies off the ground to actually build them.
40:52
Oh, I see. I mean, I thought I was sort of
40:53
imagined if you got the commitment to buy the
40:55
electricity, you could go to the bank and say, look, here's my
40:57
business plan. This is how much we're going to
40:59
produce. And you know, these, these are
41:00
the number of billions you need to lend us to get there, but
41:03
it's not. Exactly.
41:05
That's exactly where we hope it will be.
41:07
But until they have seen, we'll call it 5-10 years of operating
41:13
data, I think the institutions are not quite ready to say a
41:17
contract and a lease is enough. And so that's where we really
41:22
need to engage these financiers to understand the magnitude of
41:26
the opportunity. And that kind of goes back to
41:29
that 100 year comment. We actually do have 100 years of
41:32
operating data. There is just some anomalies
41:35
associated with some of that. Yeah, it's a bit exactly.
41:38
It's a bit like nuclear in that it's new and not new at the same
41:40
time. I mean, nuclear has been around
41:41
since the 1950s, but there's all sorts of new reactor types being
41:46
proposed with the, with the, you know, the SMRS and someone's got
41:50
to build 1 or someone's got to build lots of them before we'll
41:52
know whether they actually work and whether they work at a
41:54
reasonable cost. And, you know, so we sort of,
41:57
it's still all on paper or on PowerPoint.
41:59
And, you know, I, until these things actually physically exist
42:02
in the real world and have some operating experience, as you
42:06
say, it's, it's difficult for people.
42:08
I mean, particularly it's all right for me to, you know, spit
42:11
ball on a podcast, but if you are responsible for investing
42:14
billions of dollars and getting a good return and not losing all
42:18
that money, then you say you'd want to see a bit more
42:20
experience in the real world, right?
42:23
Exactly. Tell me about a bit about the
42:25
politics. And I'm kind of curious because
42:27
whether whether the governments, I mean, obviously talking in the
42:32
US here, whether there's governments in, in, in America
42:34
or elsewhere, because obviously the Trump administration has,
42:38
let's say, a complicated relationship with clean energy.
42:42
Trump himself has this absurd war on wind.
42:46
And and, you know, Davos recently was spouting all sorts
42:50
of falsehoods about about wind turbines or windmills, as he
42:53
calls them. But they seem to like nuclear.
42:56
I mean, maybe they don't realize that it's a climate, a clean
43:00
energy technology, or maybe it's just about they still think that
43:04
the liberals hate nuclear. And so it's a kind of culture
43:07
war thing. I don't know what the motivation
43:08
is. I'm not asking you to speculate.
43:10
But they also seem keen on geothermal, right.
43:13
So like, what's the politics here?
43:15
The short answer is still is jobs and energy demand.
43:19
So if we're going to satisfy the need with the expectation that
43:25
the grid operates reliably, I think there is a preference
43:30
under this administration to really lean into those firm
43:33
sources. And so I think that that is one
43:35
of the areas that you see pretty consistently across the
43:39
decisions that this that this administration is making.
43:42
The Department of Energy, you know, signed secretary,
43:46
Secretary Wright is also historically under his previous
43:49
company, an investor and some next generation geothermal
43:52
companies or one in particular. So there is demonstrated
43:58
interest and an honest belief that it will work.
44:03
So I do think that is consistent.
44:06
So both firm and the jobs really matter in this particular
44:12
problem statement of what we're trying to fulfill.
44:15
It would be worth also pointing out though that there are other
44:18
countries that for their own reasons are also leading into
44:21
this, right? So Japan, who is which country
44:24
is really limited on its ability to scale electricity and where
44:29
it's going to get its electricity solutions, is making
44:33
quite a few outward commitments to even super critical
44:37
geothermal at scale with, you know, the expectation or hope
44:40
for four projects at 100 megawatts each.
44:44
So I think that one of the things they all have in common
44:48
is desperation for firm electricity at scale.
44:54
Yeah, I was going to ask you about Japan because it would
44:57
make so much sense for them. They've got limited land.
45:02
They've, I mean, O obviously invested heavily in nuclear
45:05
that's had problems. Uh, they haven't.
45:07
There's still 30 reactors waiting to restart I think
45:10
because obviously they were all shut down posts for Beshima.
45:13
It would make so much sense to given how many volcanoes there
45:16
are and how presuming how close to the surface the the Super hot
45:19
resources for for Japan to have been going hell for leather on
45:23
this. And how come you've only got 4
45:25
projects? I mean it doesn't doesn't seem
45:27
to make much sense. Well, in fact, actually they do
45:29
have quite a few other other projects.
45:30
The four is a commitment to be looking and harnessing super
45:34
critical resources, so intentionally drilling to
45:37
resources they expect to be in that 400° range.
45:40
They've got a certain amount of conventional geothermal already
45:42
operation. That's right.
45:45
And where are the, where else in the world?
45:46
I mean, Kenya, they've got commercial geothermal.
45:48
I mean, obviously I'm going to all of the standard places and
45:50
you're trying to look at something which is, which is
45:53
deployable pretty much anywhere. But I mean, you think you at
45:56
least start where you've got the heat closer to the surface and
46:00
develop all of the, you know, the, the, the engineering issues
46:03
you said about lining, you know, the wells and all that kind of
46:05
stuff. Why not get all that sorted
46:08
where you've got the, the, the heat closer to the surface and
46:11
then look at the, you know, the really deep stuff?
46:13
Yeah, if I, my crystal ball suggests that yes, just like
46:19
nearly any other industry, you're, you're not going to do
46:21
all the hard things first. You're going to test unique
46:25
aspects as you go. And so doing it where the heat
46:28
is shallow certainly makes the right, like makes a good amount
46:32
of financial sense and risk mitigation sense.
46:35
Also, I think it's important to point out the, the, the value of
46:40
a knowledgeable ecosystem. So the having access to rigs,
46:46
having access to people who understand the subsurface is
46:50
also one of the biggest enabling factors to being able to move
46:55
geothermal quickly in your region.
46:57
So I would you know, I would probably posit it as second to
47:01
subsurface heat, but but close. OK, well, I'm going to, I'm
47:05
going to ask you to look into your crystal ball, if you don't
47:08
mind and just tell me, give me some sense of time scale.
47:12
Like when do you see this making a significant contribution to
47:16
global energy? And I presume you believe that
47:18
it will because that's why you're doing the job you're
47:20
doing. Is it, is it 2050?
47:22
Is it 2035? I mean, give me, give me some
47:25
ballpark. I am hopeful that within the
47:29
next five years we will see proof of concept in an adequate
47:35
number of unique lithologies. So this is to say that the world
47:40
sees that Iceland can do this, but they don't necessarily think
47:44
because Iceland can do it, I can do it.
47:46
But when we show it in at least 5 distinct regions that
47:51
demonstrate subsurface that looks like your, you know it's
47:54
not, you know your bracket, it's subsurface that will be adequate
48:00
demonstration. Plus that added on to to having
48:04
provided the operational data behind some of our earliest
48:09
plans to demonstrate that we can operate these reliably 9899%
48:15
availability of time. So that proof of concept for
48:19
financiers and that proof of concept for energy developers
48:22
that you can do it in unique lithologies tells me that we
48:26
might be a little slow for the next 5.
48:29
But after that, all of the key proof of concepts will be in
48:33
place. And the real tipping point here
48:35
is if we can see engagement from those that have the rigs and the
48:40
assets under control currently. So if we see big and interested
48:45
commitment from groups that are already well networked into
48:50
these spaces, that's when we could see an explosion overnight
48:54
and the proverbial overnight. So I am hopeful that by 2030
48:59
we'll have some real proof of concepts and new mythologies and
49:02
real operating data that by the time we get to 2040, we should
49:06
be entering the Terawatt scale, perhaps 2000 and 42,000 and 15.
49:11
OK. But you need the oil industry to
49:14
to well, the oil and gas industry to to to switch to
49:18
which direction here and come and help you out.
49:21
I think it's important to clarify we, the geothermal
49:24
industry can do this without the oil and gas industry.
49:27
It's just if we want to do it in a timeline that matters for
49:30
climate, we need to do it with their assets.
49:34
Okay. And just quickly tell me what
49:36
your job actually looks like. I mean, do you spend your time
49:40
going to meetings or do you do you actually go to drilling
49:43
rigs? And I mean, so are you involved
49:48
sort of in at the policy level or are you actually getting
49:51
getting into the engineering? I don't know much about your
49:53
background, but presumably there's so many different
49:55
aspects of this that that need your need your help and the
49:58
support from CATF. Well let's just start.
50:01
I have a dream job that I love everyday.
50:04
I would give a good 20% of my time to be in DC talking with
50:08
staffers and legislators around what is the value and what they
50:11
could do. The team that also does the same
50:14
similar work in EU, that's about 20%.
50:20
I would also give a good 20 to 40% of my time reading papers,
50:25
going to conferences in which new cutting edge technologies
50:29
are being either proposed or demonstrated in order to know
50:35
where the gaps have been filled and where new gaps are popping
50:38
up so that we can better inform the community around what is
50:44
left. Because oftentimes they become
50:45
very siloed based on their own expertise.
50:47
Drillers like a drilling problems, geophysicists look at
50:51
heat and rock mechanic problems and so sort of being that glue
50:55
to provide that. That's why the research is so
50:58
important. And then shortly, for example, I
51:02
will be hosting a conference in combination with MI T's energy
51:08
initiative to bring in financiers across the geothermal
51:11
spectrum to both point out new technologies that are investment
51:15
worthy and interesting, changing the market size actively, but
51:19
also to talk about some of the perceived hurdles that exist
51:26
between both their funding sizes and their ability to fund a
51:31
different risk. In short, we're really
51:34
struggling to get companies to get funding between, well one
51:37
and five. Once they've got five, they can
51:39
usually get some bigger funders. And between zero and one, you
51:44
can get enough venture between 1:00 and 5:00.
51:46
They were a word, a real sort of missing middle.
51:50
So I would give that about 15%. OK, well, I pretty much got your
51:55
whole timesheet there. So thanks for being so candid.
52:00
One of the reasons why I'm so kind of keen on this and
52:03
enthusiastic about it is that it's, it's kind of it's a
52:06
diverse energy diversity story for me.
52:09
Like, I mean, I'm, I'm, I still want to see nuclear move ahead
52:13
rapidly because while I'm, you know, hugely supportive of, of
52:17
renewables and wind and solar just going crazy.
52:19
And that's the biggest story in in world energy at the moment.
52:22
And and that's just amazing news for the climate.
52:26
You sort of don't want to put all your energy eggs in one
52:28
basket. And I think having geothermal is
52:30
another option of sort of 24/7 firm power and potentially very
52:34
high heat as well. It just adds the kind of
52:37
portfolio and I think that has its own, has its own utility,
52:40
right. Would love to see sort of an
52:45
awareness or education campaign that helps us better understand
52:49
that the most affordable grid is one that finds a way to bring in
52:55
both, right. We've, we have, we have really
52:58
driven down the cost of wind and solar to a way to, to really
53:01
make electricity quite affordable in many parts of the
53:04
world. But in order to make that grid,
53:08
you know, sort of consistently available both through seasonal
53:11
and diurnal effects, you do need to bring in that firm.
53:14
And if you are trying to supplement it all with one type,
53:19
it is modeled over and over again to be a surefire way of
53:24
making an expensive form of electricity for your people.
53:27
So you are singing to the choir. I absolutely agree that firm is
53:31
important, but in combination with the the other solutions
53:36
that have already been and proven themselves to be so cost
53:39
effective, yes, we need them all.
53:42
Optionality is the only way we're going to get.
53:44
There right and I started off the this episode by, you know,
53:48
trying to think figure out what the bad idea is that you're
53:50
challenging. Did I get that right or have you
53:52
got a better bad idea to coin the phrase like the bad idea was
53:57
that geothermal only works, you know only works in very
54:00
restricted locations. I'll try and think of a more
54:02
concise way to put it like only works next to a volcano or
54:05
something. But are there other
54:07
misconceptions out there which are bad ideas which we also,
54:10
which you also? You know, I, I do think that
54:13
that is one of the biggest misconceptions that geothermal
54:16
is working with. So I, I, I share that as a, as
54:20
a, as an overall sort of yes, statement around the opportunity
54:24
space for geothermal. But another quite bad idea, one
54:28
in which we could try to debunk is that we can do it all with
54:34
solar and wind alone. So let's, you know, let's find a
54:37
way to integrate at scale because that's the way we're
54:41
going to drive down costs of firm solutions, firm solutions
54:46
at scale in combination with some of the other with solar and
54:49
wind so that we can create a reliable but B affordable
54:54
electricity for everyone. So finding that balance and not
54:59
being short sighted and using the technologies we have today,
55:06
right, If we invest now, we can actually create grids that work
55:09
in the future too. Well, Tara, thank you so much
55:12
for sparing your time. I know you're travelling at the
55:14
moment and I know you're super busy with the Super hot stuff,
55:17
so thanks again for joining us on Saving the World for bad
55:21
Ideas. We really appreciate it.
55:23
Mark, it was a pleasure. Thank you for inviting me.
55:28
Thanks so much for listening to Saving the World from Bad Ideas,
55:31
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55:53
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