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The Favorites - NBA Finals Betting Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, chief Content officer of the Action Network.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: NBA Finals are starting in forty eight hours. It is Tuesday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: May thirty one when we are recording this episode. In
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: a moment, we will bring on Action Network NBA expert,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: one of the original Action networkers, one of the first
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: hires we made because we knew the NBA was so important,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, who was also celebrating his birthday today. Mate.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: And then we're gonna bring on another original Action networker
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: who has turned into despite being one of our most
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: valuable NFL contributors, has turned into the hottest NBA better
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: in all the land. And a little bit of hockey
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: selted in there, Chris Raybon. We're gonna get to both
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: of those guys. We're gonna talk about the NBA Finals,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: which I couldn't be more excited about. I have watched
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: just about every single game of the NBA Playoffs, at
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: least the ones I can stay up for. Simon Hunter,
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  Speaker 1: you know, how much I love the n B A
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  Speaker 1: professional better my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre fright
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, z own. I know you want to get
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to the NFL season, but dude, I am so freaking
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: psyched for Celtics Warriors finals. I cannot tell you. I
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: try to enjoy these days. This is it, right, this
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: is our last gasp of sports. I mean, we all
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: watched tolerant baseball, but this is really it like Premier
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: League coming to an end, NBA coming to an end,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: hockey coming to an end. This if you're a sports fan,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: you kind of just get it all in right before
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: you just wait those long summer days until college football
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: NFL kicks off. So I try to appreciate these days.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, I probably lose a Chris. We're gonna talk
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: to Chriss. He's on a heater. This is why you
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: usually lose the most amount of money, because I'm just
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: chasing the hot I'm just chasing that last sports It's like,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: do I know anything that's going on in this NBA game? No,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna bet it just because I'm watching it tonight.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So I feel like most people in the same boat.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Where's just you're betting these games at the end of
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: the year, just because it's about to be just baseball,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: which is not that fun. Well, listen, I'm not gonna
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna delay. I'm not gonna dilly dally, I'm
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: gonna bring in Matt More. I'm gonna bring in Raybon.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Uh in a second, just a reminder. Uh. You can
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: listen to Matt Moore on The Buckets podcast, which is outstanding,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and they released two episodes this morning, one previewing him
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson another Action Network contributor, Joe dolera Um. They
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: released two pods this morning, one focused on just Game
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: one bets you got forty it I wants to figure
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: that out, and also series bets, which you can use
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: this pod as a tool to think about the entire
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: series throughout the process and be thinking about how you
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: want to bet it as games go on. Matt Moore,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, Welcome to the Favorites boys, Matt, Happy birthday,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Thanks Jeah, thanks for having me on. Raybon. You are
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: on some kind of streak right now. My friend. I
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: feel like I'm not gonna you know what, I usually
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: get the summer off from podcast or or NBA type podcast.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: So now we're officially telling the world and uh, it's
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be downhill from here. No, no, no, no, listen,
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this. But I think in like
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  Speaker 1: your last seventeen picks, you're something like fourteen and three. No, no, no, no,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: get it right. If you're gonna do that, you gotta
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: get it right. All right. You didn't tell it to
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: me sixteen, didn't one in the last seventeen sixty and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: twenty since April one. Damn dude. I'm just every it's
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it's miserable though, because every time I make it bet,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: I'm just like waiting for it to and I'm waiting
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: till it was like eight in a row. Like all right, well,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this number one, number one A.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I want to be a realist here because at Action
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Network we have sort of assiduously not been the place
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: that is always promoting winning streaks because we don't believe
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: in winning streaks. We believe in the good work that
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: people do and extended success over longer windows with much
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: much bigger data sets to work off of much bigger
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: sample sizes. But this is freaking insane and there's going
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: to be an end. You're going to regress back to
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  Speaker 1: the mean. That's why I can't jinx you because we
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: are rational beings. That's what you and I both are.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: We are rational beings. Raybon In the meantime, six s
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  Speaker 1: and one, what the fund is going up? Why is
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: this happening to you? I have no idea. I just
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: just roll out the flow, trying to make quality, but
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: not not just bet bet and uh, trying to keep going.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: But what are you working off of? Are you working
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: off of other people's picks? Are you working off of
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  Speaker 1: other people's research, are you working on player props and models?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: What are you doing? I'm definitely so, I'm definitely tunnel vision.
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  Speaker 1: I don't even like to look at anyone else's picks
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  Speaker 1: because a lot of people I respect obviously work here
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  Speaker 1: and stuff I don't. I don't even want to get
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  Speaker 1: that in my head. So I just really don't. Um, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it's just it's just a little bit of modeling, a
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: little bit of just um, you know, using our bet
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  Speaker 1: labs too, and kind of especially with playoffs NBA and
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: NHL A like it's you know, you have you have
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a larger sample size than you think, because you have
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  Speaker 1: two teams playing each other over and over again, you
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  Speaker 1: can also use some of the regular season data and
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: then they're just spots human reactions. You know, I remember
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: one one, but I've an idea, like like a week
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: or two ago, was Reggie Bullock over two and a
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: half threes? The day after he went over ten, Like
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: like how you know that was like almost guaranteed the cash.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It's like if you if you just watch NBA playoffs
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  Speaker 1: from long enough, you know how these things go. So
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: just a matter of kind of incorporating human nature into
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: some of it. This is the most subdued and humble
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I've ever heard you. It's my second sport. I'm always
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: gonna talk more in NFL because you know, I just
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: got the I gotta carry these guys like Simon Hunter
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: and Chad Millman and and now I won't even say
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Sean Karner. Um let's sen to the finals. Man, it
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: ain't about me, But let's let's talk about this matchup. Alright,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: We'll fine, let's talk about the finals. I'm almost uncomfortable.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: We've got a birthday rage rager to go to. I'm
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable with the way you're deflecting your success. But that's fine. Uh,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: it's just not like you. So yeah, help out the
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  Speaker 1: ball club. Do the best that I can. Uh, let's
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: talk about the finals. They're starting in forty eight hours.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: The Warriors are minus one sixty ish favorites um. For
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  Speaker 1: the record, I had the Warriors and five against the MAVs.
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  Speaker 1: I had the Celtics and seven against the Heat. I
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  Speaker 1: said both of those things on the podcast. I'm in
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  Speaker 1: it right now. Warriors in six, and I know this
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  Speaker 1: is going against the models of so many betters. Matt Moore,
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  Speaker 1: Why are so many people within the NBA community finding
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  Speaker 1: numbers that favor the Celtics in this series because they've
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  Speaker 1: been the best team in basketball since January. The numbers
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  Speaker 1: for Boston are so overwhelmingly strong since then, and they've
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  Speaker 1: carried through the playoffs. You have to remember that the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Warriors during that same stretches of time, when a lot
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: of these guys are working off those numbers, they were
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  Speaker 1: without Steph Curry for a long stretch. They without Draymond
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  Speaker 1: Green for part of that, and then as soon as
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Draymond got back, Steph Curry goes out. So the Warriors numbers,
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  Speaker 1: I think are a little deflated because of that. Meanwhile,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, like Golden State has been good, not
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  Speaker 1: amazing versus the Celtics who have been not amazing, but
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  Speaker 1: it faced such a strong opponent stretch. Once you get
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: into the details, you start to find some cracks in
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  Speaker 1: that veneer. But that's partially I think why Boston comes
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  Speaker 1: out ahead here. They've been the best defense over that span.
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  Speaker 1: Their offense has been great over that span, and when's
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: they've been their offense has been terrific, even versus good
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  Speaker 1: defenses like Milwaukee and Miami. So that I think is
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  Speaker 1: why from a numbers perspective that Boston comes out ahead.
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  Speaker 1: And a lot of these models, I don't necessarily know
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  Speaker 1: if the models are accurately representing everything, especially on the
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  Speaker 1: warrior's side, but on some level, Boston, and this is
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  Speaker 1: kind of carried through is Boston has been so good
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  Speaker 1: it's hard to deny their level of elite in terms
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  Speaker 1: of the numbers. All right, that's a good explanation. Ray
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: bon A move to you, how do you model this?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: How do you see a plan out? So I get
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: good warriors the energy here, and I don't think it
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: comes down um, you know due to two of the
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: top defense is in the league. Um, this is one
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: of the handful of times in NBA Finals history you've
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: got the top two teams in terms of defensive rating
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  Speaker 1: faring off. But and Matt might have been alluding to
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: this when he said, you know, there's some cracks in
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: the Celtics venear. I just look at the way the
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Celtics played against Milwaukee in Miami, and I say, you know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: first of all, great, you know, bouncing back from adversity
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: every time you lose a game, you win a game,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: you know, losing game one of both of those series,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: winning in seven, Um, great accomplishments. You know, holding off
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Miami at the end there even was it was tough,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: but they barely squeaked out these last two series. And
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are gonna say it was it
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: was against the honest it was against jim you know,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Jimmy five games of all world Jimmy Butler or four games,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I guess of all world Jimmy Butler. But the Warriors
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: are totally different, especially than Miami, because the Warriors players
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and on office they just have gravity like Miami had
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: p J. Tucker, who if you watched the games. He
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: wasn't even in the corn where he's supposed to be
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: all the time, like p J. Tucker was just like
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: lingering around like the wing and like the dunker spot.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Like it was just the spacing was terrible for Miami. Um.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Then you had Bam who was not would be aggressive
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: like every third game. Um. And Jimmy Butler is a
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: twenty something percent three point shooter for the season. He
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: was making a few more of them. But um, the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Warriors just presents such a more difficult matchup. And I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: think because both of these teams are gonna show up
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: on defense and can kind of counter the other's best
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: and most dangerous lineup offensively with defense. Um, I just
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: worry about the Celtics offense, um, you know, and compared
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: to the Warriors, because the Celtics offense it wasn't amazing
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: throughout this stretch. That's kind of why it took him
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: seven to to to you know, put Away, the Bucks
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: took him seven and put Away to heat. But the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: differences those teams are going cold that time because they
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: just don't have the same gravity on you know, on
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: their side on offensive side of ball. So I think
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the old Steph Clay. Golden State might even to be
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: able to play that death Star line with Georgan Poole,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: you know if depending on you know, the matchup with
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Robert Williams and Looney and how much Williams can play
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and this in that So I just think offensively, the
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Warriors actually have the edge, and that's why I give them,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you know, the slight edge of the series. Man, who
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: do you view as the most important player like matchup
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: wise for both teams in this series. So I'm doing
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: an article on this for me in terms of the
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: most important player for me, it's gonna be Draymond Actually. Uh,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the reason is if Draymond doesn't play well, I don't
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: know if the Warriors have a chance. Steph cannot have
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: big games and still have the impact like Steph steps
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: on the court and everybody's worried about him hitting thirty
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: five footers. Uh. If Clay doesn't have a good game,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Jordan Pool can step up, right. They have multiple options
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that can do what those guys do. No one on
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the floor for either team does what Draymond does, where
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: he's the hubblical offense in terms of the passing and
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: he's the anchor of the defense, and he has to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: make so many plays, not only switching and covering guys
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: like Tatum and shutting down those opportunity needs to challenge him,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: but helping when Steph gets beat because Steph and Pool
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: are not great defenders, so he covers a lot of
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: the time for them while also recovering. He makes all
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: those little plays like slapping the ball away on the
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: underneath with the refs can't see it, often times getting
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: risk like. He makes so many plays that to me,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Draymond is the most important because the Warriors defense, to
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Chris's point, if the Warriors defense is able to just
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: bring the Celtics offense to just a little bit lower
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: than they're pretty good level than the Warriors floor, even
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: against a great defense like Boston, puts Golden State in
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a really strong opportunity to win. All right, Matt I
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: have said I like the Warriors in six. RayBan has
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: said he thinks the series, uh that the Warriors. He
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: likes the Warriors in this series. You said off the
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: top that you could see why the numbers and a
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: lot of the models favored the Celtics. You are as
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: analytical as it gets. You study a crapload of film.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: You are studying offensive ratings, you are stuttering studying shooting
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: percentages off of pick and rolls. Tell me your take
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: on the Finals. So I've got Celtics, and the reason
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: that I've got Celtics has a lot to do with
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Boston has been able to find the answers defensively. Part
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: of it. Raybond's point about the Celtics offense, I think
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: is on point. But here's kind of the key here.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Boston doesn't need their offense to run smooth. It doesn't
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: need to run perfectly. It doesn't need to look awesome.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: That's not how they win games. They get just enough
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: contributions from whoever, from guys like Al Horford or Grant
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Williams or Derek White. They've had guys consistently step up.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: This matchup is fascinating because Golden State has not faced
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: a defense like Boston, and Boston has not faced an
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: offense like Golden State. Early on the series, I think
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a shock factor for Boston. Everybody gets
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: caught off guard by the Warriors movement. It's unlike anything else.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: But Boston is good enough to be able I think
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to take one of the two games in the Bay.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: As long as the series goes long, Boston will be
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: able to make the adjustments and get better and better
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: at this Warrior's offense. And this Warrior's offense kind of
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: under the radar is not what it was like. This
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is not the fifteen sixteen offense, and it's definitely not
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: what it was with Kadie. As they get more used
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: to those, I think Boston's gonna be able to drag
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: down Golden State a little bit closer to what they need.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: And then you've got Golden State who has more weak
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: points defensively, even as good as they are with Jordan's pool,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry, some of the bench guys for them to
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: be able to make plays. I think this is a
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: very close series. But for me, the value when I'm
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: getting a plus number on a team that's been as
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: good as Boston that has found the answers, I think
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Boston is where the value is found. I'm betting it
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: very specifically as a series goes on. Like I have
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a plus seven hundred Warriors over Celtics ticket from early May,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I have a plus nine hundred Celtics over Warriors ticket
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: from the second round, so I've set myself up on
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: either side, but when I look at how the matchups go,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I leaned towards Boston just slightly, having the edge over
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Golden State enough to think the value is there and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: what I think is close to a coin flip series.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Why do I agree so much with Raybund right now?
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I look at this, I look at this, and again,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I'm a massive NBA fan. I don't study it the
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: way you guys do it, but I'm watching every game
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: and I think about it from a betting point of view.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Part of me feels like there is a massive amount
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: of recency bias that is going into every single model
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: that you and your analytics colleagues are making. Uh. I
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: heard you talk about it on the podcast with Brandon
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and Joe. I've seen on social a lot of people
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: talking about favoring the Celtics in the series, and I
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: think that Warriors have every advantage right now. I think
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: they are. I think their offensive ceiling is much much higher.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I think the Celtics offensively rely way too much on
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: bull rushing the basket with no real plan from Jalen
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Brown and Jayson Tatum, and then too many step back threes.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're like a well coached offensive team.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're a little bit of a break it
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: down and wait until the last second of the shot
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: clock offensive team, whereas the Warriors are poetry in motion.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: And I think their their ability to do that and
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the way they are so cohesive and thoughtful as a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: team in their experience in this situation doesn't make any
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: sense to me. They wouldn't be the favorites, like with
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: everybody believing that they're the favorites, right Like they're the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: favorites because the public markets are gonna bet the Warriors,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: and that's what the bookmakers think. I'm not understanding why
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the people who know better aren't believing what I believe
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: that here's a starting point, um Loeu. Of the teams
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: have caused the Warrior's trouble throughout the years, and you
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: find one common denominator. They switch and pick and rolls,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: and they switch on off ball screens. Boston Celtics switched
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the second most of any team in the NBA playoffs
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: and in the NBA regular season. It's always been a
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: counter for them. That's why Houston. You remember that two
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: thousand eighteen series when you're like, why are the Warriors,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: not like looking like the Warriors. And a lot of
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: it was because if you switch everything, if you can
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: do that, if it takes the personnel, then you're able
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: to take away a lot of it. When stuff is
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: running back screens and his guy slips to the basket,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: but then both guys are worried about him slipping too
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the outside for a three. When you mess that up,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: they put you through these paces where you're having to
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: make on any given possession, every player on the defense
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: has to make ten high i Q decisions of understanding
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: how to navigate that and communicating to do that. There's
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: literally nobody better out at the Boston. It's why Boston
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: has the best record versus Kurs Warriors, I think since
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen, like they've consistently had success against it,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and there's no magic here. It's because they switch everything
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and that slows down a lot of what the Golden
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: State does offensively. When you look at Golden State and
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: who they faced defensively, look, I think there's lots of
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: holes of poke in in Boston right the selt The
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Bucks should be here they were without Chris Middleton. The
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Bucks should be here. Shout out Matt Mitchell like they
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: should be here, but they without Chris Chris Middleton, the
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Heat were banged up all these types of things. However,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: on the other side, the Warriors face that non existent
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Denver defense, a Memphis team that was young and mistake prone,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: and then a Mavericks defense that was good at switching
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: on ball but didn't understand how to guard the back line.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Boston guards you at every single level. So when you
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: factor in the impact of a defense at this level
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: and the success that those types of defenses have had
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: on Golden State specifically, you start to take away the splash,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: you start to take away the bursts, you start to
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: take away all that efficiency, and that drags it down
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to where Boston, who has found ways to be efficient
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: enough with their perimeter oriented, volume three shooting team. I
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: think that's where you start to get into They can
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: shrink those margins and then they win those margins with
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the level of i Q and the type of players
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: from Jayson Tatum that they've gotten. That's why I think
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: you can get to Boston being the plan. You know,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: people are gonna say Golden State didn't really face matchup,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: that we're that tough, which is pretty true. But remember
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: going to State, you know, dominated around one, you're still up.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Well was it three to one in round two? And
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I noticed, I know John got hurt, but and then
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: they and then they go up three out and take
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: it in five against UM against Dallas. So it's not
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: like Golden State just like stumbled through these playoffs. They
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: handled their business, which the Celtics. I mean, if Jimmy Butler,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: you know, it hits that shot, or if just a
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: lot of different things go differently, if Jimmy Butler doesn't
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: get bank you know, reaggragate his knee, we might not
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: even be sitting here talking about this. So I don't
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: think it's a question of that the Celtics are the
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: toughest matchup for the Warriors and and vice versa. But
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: it's just that from what we've seen out of the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Celtics in these very playoffs, everything has been such a struggle,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: and they've relied on their defense, I think more so
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: than their offense. And now I think that's just in
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the question a little more, Um, and it's it's in
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: question a little more on both sides of the ball.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: It's like it's ten their defense do the same thing
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: about gold State. Yes, they're gonna be able to switch. Um,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: are they gonna be able to play more than seven guys?
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: There's another question. I think it's interesting to talk about
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: because Golden State they might get you know, like guys
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: number eight, nine and ten back that they could play.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe you get paid and maybe you get
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: um iggy. You know, maybe you're gonna put you know,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: like they out of Porter. You know they have they
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: can go a little bit deeper with throwing bodies at
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown. UM. So, I think that's another interesting,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: fascinated series where it's going, UM, Boston, they're probably they
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: probably want to play a seven man rotation. Um, you know,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: what's the matchup gonna be like with what's the health
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: status of Williams? Is he even gonna Are they gonna
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: want to keep him in if Golden State goes all? Um?
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: You know? So I think those are those are kind
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: of things that um are just worth talking about. But
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: I think as far as just the matchups don't stay
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: handed at business, well, that's that's that's sort of my point.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Raybon And and I feel like there is recency bias
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: working against the Warriors here and that the Celtics have
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: actually not been a great team in the playoffs. They
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: barely beat the Nets in the first game that was
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: a miracle last second game winning shot from Tatum in
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the game in which they gave up a huge lead
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: in the final minutes and shouldn't have even have put
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: themselves in a position to be in that spot. They
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: then go on to win the series and sweep the Nets,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: a team that was relatively discombobulated offensively, not cohesive, not
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: great coaching, but all those games were close. Then they
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: get by the Bucks because the Bucks don't have Chris Middleton.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Then and they barely beat a team in the Heat
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: that is terrible offensively and basically has one option in
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler. And yet everyone is looking at the Celtics
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: as this team that can match up well with the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Warriors without looking at how they actually play in the court.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I just don't think they're equipped to beat a team
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: like the Warriors that has been in this position so
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: many more times and has a much higher ceiling offensively
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: and is much better offensively to me than the Celtics.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Boom My mic wasn't on a stand. I drop it
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: right now. I mean, I think so you know, to
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: your point, like I think, I do think the Celtics
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: match well with the Warriors, just personnel wise, just the
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: fact that they can go small with Horford and put
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: White in there, or they could or they could put
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Grant Williams there and they could be super switchy, you know,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: switch act. Like personnel wise, the Celtics do match up
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: great with the Warriors. But I just think we're forgetting
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: that like this, and the Celtics defense is amazing and
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: they have the person now so they don't put a
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: weak link on the floor and defense, and that's the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: difference between them in the wars. The Warriors do, right,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: So it's like how better how much better can the
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: words offense be to carry them? But when we've seen
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the Celtics struggle, it's because the Celtics offense itself, um
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: is not always firing on all cylinder's and like they'll
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: build the lead and then it'll just get whittled down,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: not because like their defense disappears, it's because you know,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: their offense just can't get you know, quality, doesn't get
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: quality shots and just doesn't hit shots. Now, look at
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: the Bucks for example, you know without middle too, what
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: are we really saying about the books. They didn't, you
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: honest is their best player. He had some clutch threes
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: in that series. But like the Bucks, they surround your
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: honest with shooters, but they're not like amazing shooters. And
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: then Miami they had three point shot shooting was their
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: calling card. But for whatever reason, p J. Tucker just
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: forgot where to line up in this series. I'm still
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: mind boggling how many times I saw PJ. Tucker in
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: places where he wouldn't shoot the ball to begin with,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Like it just with my mind, um, the best players
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: on a three point shooter um, and then they were
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: just cold from three, like Miami was ice cold pretty
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: much the entire series three. So it's like, my thing
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: is this, the Celtics are gonna show up on defense.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: They're gonna They're probably gonna be quite a few games
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: of the Warriors don't hit a hundred, right, The Warriors
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: are also a great defense and can kind of match
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: up and they don't have to play Curry and Poor
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: at the same time. You know, ever, like they could
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: just use Pool straight up off the bench and not
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: ever use those lineups with you know, the death start line.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: If if if they don't feel they that gives them the edge.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: But my thing is this, like the war Stephan Clay
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: aren't forty plus percent three point shooters anymore of their
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: high thirties. They're still above average, but they're not like
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a week at least this season, they haven't been. But
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: they're still gonna hit more shots to kind of end
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: runs and break runs and break up. They're not gonna
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: go on these like nine minute scoring drops that like
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: we've seen in front of and so the Warriors get down,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: they could come back, and the Celtics, I mean, they
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: put on a masterclass and blowing leads this whole playoffs.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: So it's like I look at the a team like
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, and it's like they're going down the court,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: You're honest, the ball in his hands every time he's
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: they gotta come back by two and two and two
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and maybe a and one here, maybe a kick out three,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: but they're coming back by twos. Then the heat, it's
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: just they're coming back by twos too because Jimmy Butler
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: is really the only player that's showing up for them
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: an offensive bam Adi bio every once in a while.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: And and so it's like now you're facing the team
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: that and they will get down because the Celtics are
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: great defense and they have a talent talented offensive players
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: as well. The Celtics will go on some runs, but
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: going to State can come back and then and then
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: they have that home court. You know, it's there's just
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: things that kind of favor the Warriors here that the Celtics,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: and to bass point, it's gonna be a shock. Like
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I think I think the Warriors are on a good
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: spot to take game one. I think if you do
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: like the Celtics, my advice would be to wait till
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: after the game want to take make maybe you put
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: a you put a little bit on it and before
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: the game one because you're still getting plus money. But
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: the Warriors are now twenty one and two, uh and
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: in game one straight up in the Steve Kerr era,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and now I know, like they're not not the same teams. Um,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: But generally speaking, this this this has just applied regardless
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: like this year they want they won their game ones,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: like it's just this is what they do, um, and
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: they have more of the rest. So I think you
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: you'll get there's a good chance that you'll get a
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: better number. Um. After Game one on Boston, UM, and
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: if you do like them, you're probably banking on them
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: to kind of grind it down as a series progresses,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: kind of like the Bucks did last year where the
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Suns came out looking like the favorite. You know, it
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: took two early and then the Bucks kind of ground
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: them down. East Coast Basketball. I think that's what you're
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: kind of looking at if you're looking at a Boston
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: win here. But but I still think the Warriors have
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: that edges because they can make they can make three
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: point shots at a level that the teams that Boston
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: was facing before that that they still took seven games
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to win, granted banged up as well, just didn't have
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: you talked about kind of the inconsistency of the Warrior shooters.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: This to me gets into a lot of it is
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: when the Warriors are hitting, they're hitting everything, and then
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: when the Warriors are not hitting, it's like, where the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: hell is the offense? Where did the Splash Brothers go?
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: And there's a lot has to do with Clay Thompson,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: I think, and his injury status and what injuries and
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: age rob you of in the NBA. Is not your ceiling.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: You can still have those high points. It's consistency game
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: by game, and so if you're not able to get
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: yourself back into it. The thing I would say is
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: when you look at Boston and look, I can't agree
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: with you. When you're like, look at these these these
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: guys that Miami's trying now, or look at how badly
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: they shot and Milwaukee missed a ton of what felt
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: like open looks. But when I look at the data,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: that suggests that gives you an indication. It's not perfect,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: but it gives you an indication of the shot quality
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: of what these opponents are getting. I was surprised because
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I thought it would be man, they are contesting at
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the great level, but these teams are also just missing shots.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: It's now what the data says. And when you go
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: back and you watch the film, you start to see
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: that the Celtics put low percentage shooters in high stress
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: situations and they really and and a lot of that
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: is how their defense operates. Look, I do not think
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be like Boston in five. I do
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: not think Boston is gonna is gonna roll in this series.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I think that Boston has proven they will find ways
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: to extend the series, and as it goes on, that
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: shock factor wears off, they get more used to it
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: and it becomes this kind of pressure situation for Golden State.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: And Golden State has shown a little shakiness, Like they
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: get blown out in Game five versus Memphis. Now they've
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: got Game six at home, no worries jaws out. They
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: take care of business. But even that one was within
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: range a little bit. I think the point of the
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: war the Warriors beat Denver in five Dallas and five
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Memphis and six, like that's an important point. I I
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: do think that that matters here where it's like Golden
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: State has not messed around. Boston has definitely fucked around
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: in these playoffs a lot, even their fans would tell
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: you that. But I do think that on top of that,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: despite that, Boston has still found what they needed to.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: But they're facing the team now that they can't do
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: that against. But I also think that we wind up
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: going too far the other way and we go, well,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: look at what took to get them to get here,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: and we ignore that there's something integral in how the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Celtics play, where if they had had limited their albums,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: they would have advanced in less games two. The NBA
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• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I feel like we didn't touch on this is a
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: family on the outside. It's the first time we've had
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: a healthy Warriors team, no Lebron in the finals. Like
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: again the Kauai thing. I know, Quiet was her when
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: they deal with Toronto, but that was a banged up
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Warriors team. I just Matt more respect man. You've got
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: balls taking Boston this series. Because I'm with these two,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: I just it feels like free money minus one sixty.
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• 32:13
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• 32:20
  Speaker 1: rare opportunity bet on a Warrior's team. That yeah, a
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: guy might put his computer and say, hey, look how
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: good Boston played the Warriors this regular season, as if
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: that's even relevant at all to the conversation. So I
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: do think it is interesting there there are people betting Boston,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: where as a pro, all the other pros I talked to,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: it feels like Dallas over again. I mean, we had
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: guys on the show telling us it was gonna go seven,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: it was go six. Chad was laughing at them saying
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: it was gonna go five. I said, I thought it
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: was gonna go four. It just feels like people just
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: don't respect this Warriors team. So getting back to the
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: betting stuff, Rayvon, you've got any good prop bet you're
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: eyeing up for this this right now, where like you know,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: we're talking about a bunch of different players, or any
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: props you've already bet for this final series. I haven't
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: made any best yet. Um, I'm gonna kind of do
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: it game by game. I think one of the more
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: interesting ones though, is like, you know, and it's obviously
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: gonna be a you know, a topic of conversation, but
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: I think steph step for finals MVP is obviously one
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: that you can make before the series that you know,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: I think it kindly happens if they do win it.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: But as far as yeah, it's it's not you're not
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: gonna get great value, but I still think, you know,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: it's it's better than minus one sixty. You know, it's
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: just kind of right. But as far as you know,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna really and and I kind of want,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: you know, because I kind of bet props very specifically
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: game by game, and I love betting props even more
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: than game one in my games two, three, four five
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: when you know there's there's data from this recency bias
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: from before. But I am curious, and Matt, I guess
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: it's a question for you. Um is like who is
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: gonna because this is also gonna determine just who has
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: edge who who do you think it's gonna dictate rotations
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: in this series? Like is it gonna be Boston going
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: big with Williams at the five and Horford at the
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: four and kind of forcing going State to keep Kavan
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Looney on the floor with with Draymond Green or um,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: you know it's going to state gonna be able to
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: dictate and say, hey, now we want to go We
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: think we could go small and not get burned on
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: the other side, Um, you know if we throw Jordan
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Pool in there in some lineups with Clay and stuff, like,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: how do you think those rotation minute and his Grant
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Williams gonna be like a thirty thirty five minute player
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: again like he was at times in the Milwaukee series,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: because he is kind of their best small ball switching
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: five even probably better than even than Horford, Like, how
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: do you think these minutes are gonna play? Because that's
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: gonna dictate a lot of how I kind of bet props.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of times you're just betting on on
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: playing time at this point. So I'll tell you until
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: your This kind of backs up the Warriors position. I
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: do think the Warrior's gonna be able to dictate. And
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: one of the reasons is when I went back and
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: watch a lot of the coverage from the last couple
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: of years and then particularly this season, there's two issues
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: I think with the Celtics bigs, like a lot of
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: this is how did he think Al Horford is gonna be? Like,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: I think Al Horford's gonna be awesome to the point
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: where we can talk about later. But I bet him
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: for finals MVP. That's how much I think Orphan is
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: gonna matter for this series. Um, Robert Williams. They have
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: to play drop okay, got and picking rolls or off
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: ball even right, Williams doesn't want to get burnt going
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: to the room because that's his job, so he plays off. Well,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: you can't do that versus Golden State. Jordan Pool will
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: launch behind that screen or d H O Steph Clay,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: same thing. Even to a certain degree. Some of the
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: other guys will take those kind of shots, so that
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: I think Puts Williams in a real big struggle here. Actually, defensively,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: when you start to look at it, Grant Williams has
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: been way more of a weak point defensively for the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Celtics than you kind of would have thought based off
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: of how well he shot in that Buck series. So
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be playing Grant Williams unders I'm if his points, rebounds,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: assists and play the under on that because I do
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: not know if he's gonna be playable in this series,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: even if they switch everything. I think he's a mechanism
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: that they will put pressure on, forced the help and
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: then punish with Robert Williams. I actually you you talked
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: about like if he's healthy. I think one of the
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: issues there is even if he's healthy, I'm not sure
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: how much he can help them. It's gonna have to
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: be a ton of Horford. It's gonna have to be
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna this may be a series where
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: they keep going smaller and smaller and smaller. The Warriors
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: actually tried this is an interesting wrinkle. They tried Porter
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: auto Porter at five a little bit versus Horford in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the regular season when they were without Draymond. I thought
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that was really interesting and it actually burned the Celtics
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: because Porter was able, Like Horford was not going to
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: stretch out on on Porter and so Porter was getting
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: open looks from three. Horford will leave Draymond open and
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: be like, have it all day, man, you can choose
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: as many threes as you want. That battle I think
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a consistent. One part of it is
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Golden stated. You're right that Golden State has more options
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: of guys they can play, but their options are not
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: as good as the limited number of guys that bought,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Like Boston has seven dudes that they're like, we know
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: we can play these guys. We know these guys can
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: stay on the floor, and so I think that's gonna
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: dictate a lot of it. I do think we're gonna
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: see Boston having to excise some of these other guys
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: because you could get away with playing play Peyton Pritchard
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: in spots, Grant Williams in certain versus the other teams.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they can get away with that.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Versus Golden State, Simon very casually dropped in there that
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: he's bet about a dime on the Warriors at minus
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: one fifty or one sixty to win the finals. Edie
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: said about fifty different books. So if I'm calculating correctly,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Simon has basically told us he's got about fifty g
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: s on the Warriors to win the NBA Finals, and
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: my reading exact at this exactly. But I'm up from
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: betting them like that's house money right now because I've
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: just been betting them every series. I've just again, as
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: cool as I want to sound, I've just been rolling
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: over winnings because it's like I took my original steak,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: which was like k and every series minus one and
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a half the Warriors that just I've just been lucky,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Chaid Chris raybonds like, do you got an assistant for this?
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Like I got multiple? Okay, okay, are you doing right?
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: I do want to talk about m v P. It's
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a narrative. It's a narrative award right now, Steph to
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: win m v P. It opened a plus one twenty,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: it's down to plus one oh two at FanDuel. You've
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: got a lot of thoughts in the narrative of m
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: v P. Explain that to people and tell us why
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: you're thinking about ault markets beyond Steph Curry for m
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: v P. Yeah, alright, So here's how it goes. The
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: voting panel is a lot smaller than you probably think
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: it is. It's about it's between eight and twelve people.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have one representative from the broadcast crew, one
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: representative from the studio crew for ABC, um to be
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: writers from either team, and then a handful of national
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: reporters and an international representative. So you have to kind
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: of think about who is playing this I do think
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: that there is a certain degree to which those voters
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: in particular kind of fight traditional narratives. These are not
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: like just very basic TV people. These are folks that
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: follow the league and the impact on the series, I
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: think carries a lot. I think that that there's so
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: much talk of like, well, Steph doesn't have one, He's
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: got to get one. They're gonna want to give it
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: to him, the voters that I know that have gotten
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: these votes in the past. That's not how they're gonna operate.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: If Steph has the best, if he has a monster series,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: if he's averaging thirty five, then yeah, steps Curry's gonna
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: win it. There's a lot of reasons to think that's
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: not gonna happen, given his history versus the Boston Celtics
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: and how Marcus Smart has defended him. Nine of twenty seven,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: by the way, is Steph Curry with Marcus Smart contesting
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: over the last five years. So for me, I look
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: at it and go, who is a player that they're
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: gonna look at and go, you know who really shaped
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: that series? You know who is really great? You know
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: what really decided and if the Boston Celtics win, I
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: think al Horford is gonna get a lot of that.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: He's a consummate professional. He has brought at every game.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: If you say, like, how is he gonna get to
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: the production well versus the Bucks, he had like a
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: thirty point performance and another twenty five point performance, He'll
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: have opportunities. The Warriors are not going to cover him
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the way that they will Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: So I think there's opportunities there. And for the Warriors,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I think you do have this chance of if they're
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: gonna focus everything on steps and I think that they're
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: going to I think you're looking at Clay Thompson Jordan's
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: pool and and it's a little bit. I think Andrew
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Wiggins is gonna have a lot of opportunities in this series.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: And if you want to say, like this is crazy
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins over Steph Curry, we would have said the
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: same thing about andre Igodala over Steph Curry. Back into
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: that fifteen. There's a reason Steph has not one of
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: finals m v P, all these chances, hasn't won one.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: And some of that was Katie, I'll give you, But
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of this is that teams know that they're
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: gonna shut down one thing. If they're gonna focus on
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: one thing, the one thing is gonna be keeping Steph
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Curry off the three point line. How So to that point,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: you know, because I know, obviously Markus Smart defensive Player
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: of the Year, Um, how often does he match up
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: with Curry? How often? Like what percentage of Curry's attempts
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: or possessions? I guess is he gonna end up being
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: a defender because we know Boston's also probably going to
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: switch a ton and but we also know that Golden
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: State knows that and is going to then try to
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: manipulate matchups. You know, like Curry acting. Curry will have
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: the ball in his hands UM at times as well.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: You know it won't will be off ball, It'll be
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: a lot. You know, they'll mix it up. But like
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: what what percentage of possessions this Marcus Smart end up
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: on Steph Curry when it matters. So I think when
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: you look at this from a finals MVP perspective, you're
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: basically trying to like forecast what coaching decisions are going
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: to be. In the regular season, they switched off of
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: him a lot of the time. I don't think they're
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: gonna do that. I think Smart it's gonna fight through
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the screen. I think they're gonna say, we're gonna let
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: you get Marcus off off of stuff. We're not gonna
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: give you that. I'm not gonna let you get Jalen
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Brown on them. We're not gonna let you get Derek
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: White on him. We're gonna keep Marcus Smart. He's gonna
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: fight over screens. He's gonna burst around all these things.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: They'll scram the switch, which is they switch it and
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: then switch it back. They'll do all of that. I
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: think to keep Smart on Curry as long as possible,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: you have the defensive player of the year, Why else
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: have the defensive player of the year on the perimeter
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: then a guard, specifically Steph Curry in the NBA Finals,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: That's my prediction. Now if they go, if we see
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Game one and they're just like, no, we'll let him
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: switch on to whoever we trust the other guys, then
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I think Steph Curry is a slam spot for M
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: v P because I don't think anybody else can shut
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Step down the way that Marcus Markin one of my
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: favorite bets that I've made again, I'm in on the Warriors.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: We know this. I'm probably in on the Steph Curry
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: MVP because I do think if the Warriors do win,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: he's going to have to have the kind of NBA
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Finals that he hasn't had before. But I think you're
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: already getting too. You're not getting a great price on
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry's MVP, which you could bet if you like
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the Warriors to win the finals, because it's just a
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: better number than minus one sixty Steph Curry plus four
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: thirty at FanDuel to lead the series in points in threes.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm going that. That to me is my
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: favorite sort of exotic Matt Moore, let's talk about game
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: one real quickly. Who do you have in game one?
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: What will you do after the game one outcome regardless
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: of who wins. So I've got Warriors, I've got Warriors
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: first half and I've got the over first half. I
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: think both these teams are gonna look at the switching
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: defenses and go, we're gonna get into our sets before
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: they get set. I think they're gonna push pace. That's
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: what Boston did. If you noticed in Game seven versus Miami,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: they had all that trouble in that Miami series, they
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: push pace Golden State, they will run off of makes
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: like they want to get you out of position. So
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I'll like the over in the first half and the
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Warriors first half. I don't want to lay. I don't
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: want to lay the points on the full game because
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: I do think there's a chance to Boston just somehow
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Is in this if you're gonna
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: play full game. I like everybody, even though like Brandan Anderson,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Joe Dhlra are guys over buckets, they're on the Celtics
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: in the series, they're all on Warriors. Game one teams
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: coming off Game seven is is a historical trend teams
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: uh going into Golden State. As Chris mentioned in game on,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: that's a trend like Game one is one that everyone
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: has circled as a slam spot for Golden State, regardless
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: of how you need the series goes. After Game one,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna add on Celtics if they lose like
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: they expect, if Warriors lose, I think there's value on
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Golden State and I will probably start coming back on
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: that and start building positions on both ends because that's
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: how I bet um. But with where it is after
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Game one. I already bet Celtics minus one and half
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: at plus two hundred, so I'm set for Celtics and
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: six essentially at plus two hundred. Uh. From that position,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to add after Game one to Boston
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: because I want to see how Game one plays out.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: With the dynamics of it, I don't think I'll get
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: shook enough after Game one to get off of Boston entirely.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: But look, I this Warrior's team is one that I respect.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: I bet them in preseason. They were my preseason Picket
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Action Network for the best bet on the board for
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: the title, and I do think that there's a chance.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: I just think the series goes long, so I think
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: there'll be opportunities of the series goes on for you
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: to find value on both sides, depending on what you're
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: looking for. Yeah, I like the Warriors in Game one
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: as well. Obviously, you know, I give him a slight
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: edge in the series, so it makes sense um Game
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: one at home. But I just think, you know, it's
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: like you know, we talked about it, it's gonna be
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a shock to the Celtic system.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think the rest is gonna be a major
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: as much of a major factor because you're still getting
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: three days now. Granted you are going on the road,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: you're going across country again, but he's still get into
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: three days, which is something they haven't had in forever.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: So um, granted, gold States getting a little more time,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: but you look at I already mentioned Golden State in
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: game ones in the postseason with Steve Kerr twenty one
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: and two straight up nine percent as a single digit
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: favorite against the spread in game ones uh nine and
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: three with Kurse seventy five percent against the spread. You
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: look at game one home favorites that that they have
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: three or more days of rest, uh, and the line
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: hasn't moved against them, which it hasn't for Golden State
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: uh since two thousand and five eighty four and fifty
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: one against the spread six six and three in this postseason.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: So a lot of things just kind of favorite Golden
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: State from that whatever you want to call it, trend,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: human nature, kind of spot perspective, um. And I think
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: I just didn't Golden State matches as well. So my
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: biggest bet would just probably be on Golden State money line,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: and then I'll have, um, you know, kind of the
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: same thing on the spread. But the thing I feel
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: most confident about is gold State winning this game. Um,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: if they win the game, they're gonna cover to spread
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: more often than not. At at three and a half,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: it was interesting just opened up the Action Network app
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: of the money of the tickets on Golden State. So
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: I'm on it too. I direct the coold I buy,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I bought the juice. I just bought the money line
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: and said besting with the points. Um, just in case
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Boston keeps it close, I'm gonna drink the juice and
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: just you know, take that minus. It might be up
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: to minus one seventy now at certain books, but it's
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: worth it. It's like we talk all the time, Chad,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: it's a little nerve racking with these spreads when it
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: comes down to these foul shots into the game. And
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: the greatest example is last week with that Jimmy Jimmy Butler.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I mean he literally hit the front rim with that
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: three pointers. So it's like a lot of times that
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: spread comes down to that. When I have a lot
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: of money, I don't want to be worried about that.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: So yeah, for me, I did gold State, but I
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: did the money line. To Simon's point, like Chad, you
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: asked me at the top, like, you know what, what
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: has been one of the keys to my heater And
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: it has been kind of just taken taking what the
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: market gives you in terms of sometimes just taking those
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: favorites on the money line, um, and not really worried
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: about the spread. Now. I know it came into play
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: in one game against Golden State in Memphis earlier, but UM,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I do think that's especially if you're you're putting a
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: lot large amounts on it anyway, you know, it's not
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: just you know, five ten, a hundred bucks, like you
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: you're gonna you know, you're gonna be fine betting on
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the money line and you're gonna get a good return
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: on it. But um, to Simon's point when he mentioned
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, eighty five percent of the money on
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: the Warriors, So this is a great postseason NBA betting tip,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Um that it's it's kind of been astounding how how
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: money it's been. But when there's at least three percent
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: more money than tickets, so like in this case it's
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: four percent, there's eighty five percent money. When that difference
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: is at least three percent, UH on the favorite UH
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: in in every game but Game seven in the postseason
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: since two thousand five, thirty seven sixty six and one
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: against the spread, that sixty seven percent cover. Right this postseason,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: it's happened forty two times where the favorite has been
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: getting at least three percent more of the money than
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: the tickets. It's happened forty two times, uh and the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: favorite has covered in twenty eight of them there and
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: fourteen sixty seven percent, So both this season and historically
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: over the last decade and a half, uh sixty seven
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: percent rate. If that closes with the favorite getting at
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: least three percent more money. So that's something to kind
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: of monitor for anyone out there that has the Action
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Network gap. It doesn't change the way they play on
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: the court. It's just it's one of those market indicators
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: that if you you're kind of into that stuff. It's
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: been a very good indicator that because I don't usually
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: bet favorite, so things like things like this are kind
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: of like astounding to me coming from the NFL. You're
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: almost usually fading the favorites and going with the dogs. Sigmon. Obviously,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: you know we talk about this every week on Sunday UM,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: but in n b A, you can feel a little
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: more confident betting favorites. And one of the best times
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: have been NBA favorites is in the postseason, when the
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: money's um on your side. That is a great stat
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: I also like Matt Moore's idea of betting the Warriors. Uh,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: they're minus one and a half in the first half
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: right now. I like that because free throws don't come
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: into play at the end of the first half. I
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: also like it because it's likely the only part of
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: the game that I'll be able to stay up for.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Come to the West Coast, chat, I should come to
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the West Coast the other night. The other night to
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: watch Game seven. Uh. I got home, I would out
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: for a little while, you know, Sunday barbecue with friends.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: My kid was out, he was seeing top Gun Maverick.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: We got back home in time for the game. Of course,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: the game starts eight. I am asleep by nine o'clock.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: At ten thirty, my kid is waking me up. He's like, dude,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: time to get up from your power n app. It's
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: the last quarter game seven games getting close. You got
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: a rally, He's right, I had a rally, and I'm hopeful.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: The greatest thing I saw was that Game two was
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: starting at eight o'clock East Coast time because it's done
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: a Sunday. This made me so happy knowing I can
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: be able to watch most of the game all right.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore birthday boy, Matt Moore, heater, Chris Raybon, BFF,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, producer Matt Mitchell. This has been the favorite
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Getting ready for the
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: NBA Finals between the Warriors and the Celtics. A lot
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: of opinions, a lot of information to unpack. Go get it.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Download the Action Network, Apple, listen to buckets, rate review,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Subscribe the podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Until next time, I Love you,