Latest / Financial Survival Network / Stagflation Brewing: Gold Targets $4,200 - Tom Luongo #6326

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Stagflation Brewing: Gold Targets $4,200 - Tom Luongo #6326 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Which I would describe as deflation or the attempted deflation
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: of credit based assets and the rise and the inflation
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: of commodity based prices.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: So you're you're going to see things.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: That are that are driven by you know, large moves
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: and credit that are driven by large credit impulse, housing,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: you know, cars, you got all those prices are going
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to be coming down where at the same time, we're
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: going to see, you know, the during the reorganization of
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: the economy, we're going to see an upward demand put
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: on strapped commodity supply chain. So we should see commodity
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: price inflation and credit asset based deflation. That's the way
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I think of stagflation.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you
• 0:41
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• 0:45
  Speaker 3: thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
• 0:50
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• 0:54
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• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Network now more than ever.
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerrie Letz got a special
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: guest for you today, someone who is very steeped in
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: the understanding of the economy, of global power, structures of
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: the rivalries that are taking place now, both economically politically geopolitically.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: His name is Tom Luongo and you find him at
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: Tom Luogo. That's t O M l u O n
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: g O dot n E. And this blog is gold,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: Goats and Guns, and Tom, I know you have experience
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: with all three. You started out life as a chemist
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: and now look at you.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Well, you know now I'm just fifty seven and cranky.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: I got this good. So it says like after years
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: of all of it, you know, what are you gonna do?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Like you just watch the world do watch the traffic
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: splash by geopolitically and you're like, how can you not
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: be cranky?
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Right? So thank you for Kerry hey hey.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Well, as we get older, our filters tend
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: to dissolve, right, And we're much more likely you are
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: and I am to actually say what's on our mind
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: without a lot of buffering and a lot of backtracking.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I mean it was funny when I first went to
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: work for Newsmax back in twenty thirteen, very early on, I.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Called the EU the Fourth Reich.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: My editor kind of looked at me and went, you
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: can't say that. I'm like, but it's true, Like, but
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: you can't say that. I'm like, Okay, I'll be right
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: about that eventually, just so you edit what you edit
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: out what you need to edit out. But I you know,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the draft still went in calling me you the fourth Reich.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So you know, I've never had much of a filter,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Caerry to be honest with you. It gets me in
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the trouble more than anything else. I'll be honest with you.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: From about the time I'm nine years old, my dad
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: looking at me, going, son, your mouth is going to
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: get you into a lot of trouble in this life.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, Dad, Oh well, I don't want any
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: other way.
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: To be so exactly my story here, but maybe a
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: little more diplomatic than yourself. So we talk about hidden
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: factions and global finance rival back banking factions.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: What does that mean exactly? And who are these people?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, let's start with the you know, the
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: big question is and this is something that they do.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I cover a lot with my good friend Alix Kraner
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: when we do podcasts together, which is that over time
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: we've just come to like when we watched the I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: didn't come to this conclusion yesterday or the day before.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's been building as a kind of an evolving thing
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: over the last you know, or twenty years of my life.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: But reality is that there's this group of global as
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: you want to call them Davos, you want to call
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: them the City of London, you want to call them
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the Row Trials, you call him whatever you want, with
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: all reflections of the same thing, which is the old
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: colonialist banking powers of old Europe that you know, have
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: nominally set the direction for the global economy for hundreds
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: of years. And you know, it just morphs and changes
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: over time, and and we we see reflections of it
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: as we move along. So we're at a moment. I
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: think we're at a very interesting moment in time over
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: these these centuries where they've unfortunately for them, had to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: cut so many other people in on the grift that
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: now those people are strong enough to say, you know what,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: we don't want to live like that anymore. What I
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: mean by that is that you look at the United States,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: you look at China, it's very obvious that at some
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: point that they decided to take when during you know,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the periods being World Wars One.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: And World War Two.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: They moved all their capital into the United States to
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: build it up into an industrial powerhouse to then fight
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: World War Two, and the goal being of course to
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: destroy the Russians and and and all of that. And
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: then in the aftermath of that, we then wound up
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: with an industrial powerhouse in the United States. But amazingly,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: we went from a non interventionist foreign policy, not much
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: those central bank, no no foreign policy to speak of
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: in the nineteenth century, and now by the end of
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the twentieth century it adopted Britain's foreign policy, Britain's monetary system,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Britain's tax policy, Britain's this, Britain's I mean, it's all
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the same thing. We are indistinguishable from them, and we've
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: embraced empire.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I used to be one of those critics of the
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: United States, is the American quote unquote imperial system. I
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: still am, but I also realized that it's not really
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: our doing. So the goal then, in my mind, was
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: that what they would do is they would use the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: United States like they always they go into a place,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: their locusts. These people they're not they don't build things.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: They only build something up in order to strip mine
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: it later. So that's the colonial's mindset, doesn't matter if
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: it's Africa or the least, or Canada or the United States.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: And then once it's done and they've they've used, they've
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: used it up, they then take all the money that
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: they've stolen and they move it somewhere else and they
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: go strip mind that place. And clearly that place was
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: supposed to be China, and they put all their money
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: into China in the nineteen nineties and early aughts and
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: everything else. And then they were looking at pull the
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: plug in the United States two thousand and eight financial
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: crisis forward zero bound interest rates to fill preserve all
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of that stuff that we all lived through. And funny
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: thing happened on the way to that liquidation. The Russians
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: refused to be liquidated. They've brought brought Vadimir Putin too
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: power in two thousand and they stood up and said no.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: The Chinese eventually brought Cheese and Ping.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: To power in order to cut the old.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Ark control out of the nass and old Ark community
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: in China out.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: That's why she was brought to power.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And you know, by twenty sixteen, we got the end
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: of of the Obama administration, and the American people said,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: do you know what this guy Trump, We're going with
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: him because these other people, we don't want to live
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: under like this anymore. So the dual moment of break
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: in the UK and the election of Trump in twenty
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: sixteen was really the moment that six month period where
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: their whole model kind of started to collapse. And that's when,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: you know, I was at that point, right around that
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: point that I was. I finished my first sent with
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Newsmax and I had to go independence. When I started
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Gold Goats and Guns in twenties, UV Andean a little
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: freer to be able to talk just you know, news
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Max has their editorial bent, and you know, I have
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: to respect that they're the ones paying the bills. And
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: it wasn't all it wasn't a big ideological divide. It
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: was just there's certain things I wasn't really all to
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: talk about, which is fine. But you know, once that
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: once that started, you started to see the once breaksit
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: and Trump occurred, you saw the big mask off moment
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: really begin or you started to see these people have
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: to come out from behind the woodwork and out themselves.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: As no no, no, this old rules base order, this
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: is all US. It's not the United States.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: But they have tried to blame the United States for everything.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So and you and you saw this, you know coming,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: and so now we have a real functional I think
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: we have a functional split. By the end of the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: time we get to the end of the first Trump administration,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's becomes very obvious that Wall Street and
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: City of London are not on the same page anymore.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: There's aspects of Wall Street that are still embedded with
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: you know, old City of London, Europe, whatnot, Luxembourg, all
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: of that, but there are other aspects of Wall Street
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: that are not down with that at all.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: And in my mind, and I've talked about.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: This and you know for years now, it feels like
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: here's that it was the implementation of the security overnight
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: financing rate by the Fed during the first Trump administration
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: that began the process, so that by the time we
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: get to powell second term, he starts raising interest rates.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: He's got he's changed the dead indexing rate of the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: United States away from a City of London focused live
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: or to a US repo domestic repo market focused collateralized
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: rate known as Sofur and that has changed the dynamics
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: so that now for the first time, literally two hundred
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and fifty years of the United States as a country
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: having control over the wris own monetary policy. Because even
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: previous to the Central Bank, previous to the Federal Reserve,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the trade flows between the US and Europe were so
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: imbalanced that they were, you know, under the old gold
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: standard that was still being manipulated by you know, our
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: politics and our and our banking system were absolutely being
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: manipulated by you know, that those imbalances and our politics
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: were being manipulated by those in balances. And I've come
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: to understand this solely as I've gone down this rabbit
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: hole over time.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: I have traced all this stuff.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I've talked to people, you know, I've talked to a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: lot of people over the years who have pointed me
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: in the right direction, and it's kind of synthesized all this.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So that's where I think we are now. I think
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: we're really at this kind of divorce moment. And you know,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I've said this a few times in my.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Life, and I'll say it again here. I'll reiterate it here.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Is like it reminds me of the an interview given
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: by an old Chinese foreign minister back I think it
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: was during the Vietnam War, he said, you know who.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: They asked, He's like, what do you think of the
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: French Revolution? And he said, well, it's too a real
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: way to tell. And I kind of feel the same
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: way now about the American Revolution. It's it's still ongoing.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It's been ongoing for two hundred and fifty years, and
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: we're getting very close to that divorce moment. And everything
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the geopolitical space, everything, all the
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: all the conflicts and the and the culture war and
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the immigration and this, it's all reflection of this of this,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: you know, attempt by the United States and other countries,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Russia and China in particular, to divorce themselves in the
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: old European colonial system. And it's, you know, it's why
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: they hate Trump because Trump clearly we saw this, you know,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: in his own way, you know. And I don't say
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: that the try Donald Trump of twenty fifteen or twenty
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: sixteen understands the game like he does today in twenty
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: twenty five. No, he made a lot of mistakes in
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: this first term, and it was very easy for him
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: to be be marginalized. It's very easy to go look
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: back on that and go, yeah, but Trump was ineffectual
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: in this first term because he didn't you know, you
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: need anything done. Well, I agree, but you know it's
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: like everything else, people learn and evolve and change as
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: they have to go through and fight. You know, this
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: this process is war. And then he literally has been
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: fighting war against these people. So that's what I that's
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: where I think the game board lay is now, and
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it really is Wall Street versus for lack of a
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: better term, city of London. And you know, and when
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: you kind of view it from that perspective, and again
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: you don't have to agree with me, but at the
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: very least entertain the idea and then start looking at
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the game board and start looking at the way people
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: are moving, and you're like, maybe there's more validity to
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: that than it sounds off the you know, you know,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: off the coffin is the first time you and I
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have ever spoken. I've been saying this stuff for years now,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: but you know, it's one of those things that when
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: you know, when I come to a different audience, I
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: have to kind of go back through all the the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to go kind of back over the primitives of where
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I've come from. Uh, in that journey, it's it's it's
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: a important Ultimately, I'm trying to shut off a hold
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: on just a second, be shut this down so it's
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: not making any noise.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Uh you go.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Away, Yeah, okay, there you go, Sorry about that. That's
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: you know that you see it that way, right, and
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: then once you start to like, once you start to
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: see it that way and you start feel like fill
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: in the bits and pieces, all of a sudden, you're like,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: that has more predictive power, That has more explanatory power
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: than the old model of Well, it's just the evil
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: United States Empire of chaos running around the world like
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: like Rambo without a drogstrap, trying to you know, defend
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the dollar. That story is really played. It's it's got
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: some truth to it, but it's also not the only truth, right.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I Mean, the world is deed allarizing, the world is
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: breaking up into regional economic blocks. But I don't think
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the United States, like, I don't think Trump is fighting that,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: to be honest with you, I think what he's doing
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: is just negotiating how much of the pie he's gonna have,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have once the divorce decree is completed, and
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that's a.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: That's where I am.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: And hopefully we bankrupt the old European system of child
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: trafficking and drug running and regime change wars and all
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the rest of it, and you know, we we move
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: into a different age where that's a far less prevalent
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: part of our politics and part of our national politics
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: for our geopolitics, and with any luck, that's what we'll
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: wind up with and we'll leave the world with at
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the end of this period of history.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: That's what I think is that's.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: What I hope for sor right here we arguing sadly
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: in the day after Charlie Kirk got shot, like he's
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: going to wind up being either a martyr or a flashpoint.
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: So this entire process, we're both so getting back to calls.
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: You know, we're both the good friends with Martin Armstrong
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: and you know this book with him, The World according
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: to Martin Armstrong. So you had some forecast of your
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: own the percent.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Rate and gold going way higher. Where are you with
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: what you're.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: Looking towards into the future.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: Sure, so I go back and remind everybody that you know,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: again there's I'm not like busting my hand, patting myself
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: on the back or anything. But back in twenty twenty two,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I said, if I'm right about Powell being, you know,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: trying to drain the world, if to drain the off
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: four dollar system, of the euro dollar system of all
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: of its liquidity, this post COVID liquidity and honestly the
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: posts zerp and nerp yeers of liquidity, then he's going
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: to raise interest rates hard and we're going to find
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: out under saufur just how much the United States economy
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: can handle relative to the rest of the world of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: global economy. And we found out, I said, you know, flippantly,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: and like back in early twenty twenty two, when I
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: get fire Powell, I'd raise race to six percent. Well,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: he got the five and a half right, and he
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: held him there for over year five and a half
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and I was kind of impressive. And now we're here,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: we are four and a half percent. We're week out
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: from the next FMC meeting. The CBI just came out
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: hot this morning, and I look at you know, where
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: we've been, and we've been in a kind of commodity
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: cost push environment inflation wise, since you know, power sort
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: of braising rates, and that's just kind of tied to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the price of gasoline. You know, the change in gasoline
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: relatives to the change to the directional change in the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: price of gasoline on a month to month basis correlates
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: very nicely with a four month overall change in the CPI.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, today we finally got like the first real
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: data point where the two are moving in the opposite direction.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: If you dig into the CPI numbers, you'll see that
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: all these data centers for AEI are starting to come
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: online and electricity costs are dominating. Gasoline prices are down
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: six point six percent month year over year, but electricity
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: costs are up thirteen percent. You know, other energy, natural
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: gas prices, pipe gas or energy prices are up by
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: eight percent, blah blah blah blah.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: And so that's what contributed to this.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: We might be getting into an area where gasoline and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: UH inflation see as measured by the CPI, are starting
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: to shift.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: Now what does that mean.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: It means that we may be and I will need
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a couple more months worth of data on this, but
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: we may be in a moment where we're starting to
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: either move into a real honesty, got stagflationary environment, which
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: I would describe as deflation or the attempted deflation of
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: credit based assets and the rise and the inflation of
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: commodity based prices.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: So you're you're going to see things.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: That are that are driven by you know, large moves
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: and credit that are driven by large credit impulse, housing,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you know, cars, all those prices are going to be
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: coming down, where at the same time we're going to see,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: you know, during the reorganization of the economy, we're going
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: to see an upward demand put on strapped commodity supply chain,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: So we should see commodity price inflation and credit asset
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: based deflation. That's the way I think of stagflation. That
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: may be one scenario. The other scenario is that Trump
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: is at is that we've actually gone through the stagflation,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: which I mean again, and I'm just throwing an idea
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: out here. I'm not telling you what I believe. I'm
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: saying these are the two environments. Or we've already been
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: through most of the stagflation, and we're getting ready in
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Q one or Q two of next year to put
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: move into a demand pull environment where demand really is
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: going to start pulling prices higher, and once that happens,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: traditionally there is no correlation between the price of gasoline
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: and CPI inflation because they don't correlate directly to They
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: don't correlate directly at that point because the demand for
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: money is and demand for credit are.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: You know, they're just.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: They're not tied to, you know, whatever the price of
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: the pump is, because people don't care.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: They're making money.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: They'll they'll pay whatever they want the price of gasoline,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: so pricey gasoline can fluctuate, and you know, CPI inflation
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: will do whatever it wants.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: And you can see this clearly in the data.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: If you take that basic study that I've been using
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: now for a while, and you go back and you
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: chart at like, you know, eight, nine, ten years, you'll
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: see periods of commodity cost push inflation, you know, tie
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: the CPI and gas together nicely, and then you know
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: periods you know when we're not there, something that completely different.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: So what do I see for right going forward to
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: finish answering the question, is I expect the FED to
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: cut race. They'll probably before the CPI print. I was
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: fully on board with a fifty basis point cut.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Next week.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Why because I was still thinking, well, you know, gaslink
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: prices last month, we're down. Therefore, the CPI is going
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to come in weaker than expected. Therefore, with that, plus
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: all the labor data that's coming out, the labor revisions,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Powell's going to you know, and him changing and get riding,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: getting rid of the two percent inflation targeting mechanism. That
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: he's probably going to cut fifty and do exactly kind
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: of what he did last year. Cut fifty, then twenty five,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: twenty five coming into the end of the year, maybe
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: cut one more time in March before or February, before
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: he leaves, exits the scene, let somebody else take over.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Now I'm thinking he's probably only going to go twenty five,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, And that should be your
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: base case. If you surprises everybody with fifty, that'd be interesting, right,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: But I think twenty five and then maybe we'll see
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a fifty later on. Again, it all depends. I think
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: it depends. Remember, the Fed likes to look at.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: The PC deflator.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: They don't necessarily look at the CPI, but they kind
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of do look at the CPI. So and we'll see
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: what happens when the PC deflator comes out. But that's
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: about where I am there. And then for gold, gold
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: just broke out of a four and a half month
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: basing pattern and we've got geopolitical tensions rising.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: This is a This is like cribbing directly from Martin
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: arm Fruyk.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Marty and I talked about as many times as we
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: agree that gold, you know, likes to move on, you know,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: like gold likes to move higher on geopolitical.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Risks, and then bank that that move higher.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Because of higher anchored inflation money printing that happened because
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: of geopolitical risks. Yeah, the fact, you know, geopolitical risk
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: sends gold higher, and then gold holds onto those gains
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: once we have to deal with the inflation that came
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: from all of the the money and the political shnanigans.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of how gold goes. So I so
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: look at this, this breakout here in gold. It is
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: just getting started. I can see a move here between
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: now and the end of the year to forty two
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: forty three hundred dollars now with very little problem. Of course,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I can see them trying to put the kabash on
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: it and stop at four grand. But let's I think
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: forty two to forty three hundred on an overshoot and
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: a potential panic cycle before the end of the year.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: That makes some sense, especially if we start to really
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: see a Sopoware deck crisis emerge in Europe and or Ukraine,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: and you know, somehow something happens in Ukraine that escalates
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: things another level. So that's what I'm saying for those
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: two things, That's what I'm saying.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: So silver, yeah up big. We're talking forty one and
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: a half bucks. And now it's is silver gonna dramatically
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: outperform goal?
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Not right yet?
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I still remember Kerrie, I'm I'm a really big advocate
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: of the idea that's so has to now prove itself
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: that it's a monetary metal and not an industrial one.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: And so because of I look at the price of silver,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: and I see the volatility and silver I see the
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: way trays and the thing else.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not against silver, mind you doing the same thing,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: But I see silver similar to the way I see copper.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Copper got I see you know, everybody calls it doctor
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Copper because it's a nice leading indicator of the change
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: in the industrial economy. The base load for need for electricity. Well,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I think silver is the it's kind of doctor silver
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: for technology because silver is so necessary for so much
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: of the technology that we all, you know, live with
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: on a day to day basis that you know that
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: demand is so strong that looking at silver as the
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: leading indicator for the technology economy versus the industrial economy,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: and you know, knowing that there's not a lot of
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: monetary demand for silver, this and this is born out
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: over time when you look at the gold of silver
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: ratio and then I have this, I have a I
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: have a thirty year chart something like that amost thirty
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: year chart of the price of silver monthly closing price
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: of silver and silver to gold ratio over time, and it,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: you know, does this. But the slope is upward. The
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: ratio is upward. It was in the fifties, back in
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties. Now it averages. Now, it oscillates around
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: eighty eighty two, and it's continuing to go higher. Now,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: at some point gold gets too expensive and the gold
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: and silver ratio is insane, or it might you know
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: that that may change, but as of right now, you know,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: this is one of those things you that upward slope
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: of the gold and silver ratio. And the farther it
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: gets away from natural abundance ratios, the more you have
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: to see gold asserting itself as a monetary asset, silver
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: asserting itself as an industrial asset.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: And you know, and you know when the silver the
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: gold ratio.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Relative to the current set of opinions about the two
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: metals gets out of whack, that's when you see silver
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: catch up the gold or gold catch up the silver
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: and the peak and the troth and the goals of
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: silver ratio is always tied to some major geopolitical event.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: That's the other thing I you know, I have also
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: another tendency now is is just like look at certain
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: important markets like bond spreads between say the United States
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: and Germany, or or the goal of silver ratio or
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: something along those on. And this starts sitting back and
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: going and looking at the timing and going, oh, look
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: on that day, that was the day of the Bank
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: of Japan, you know, killed the the again and carry trade.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: And that's the day that you know, Biden crapped the
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: bed at the at the debate versus Trump, and that's
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the day that you know, Liz Trust was deposed as
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and was opposed.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: As the Prime Minister England.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: And it's said very Martin Armstrong kind of an analysis,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: but I don't have I don't use cycles to do this.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I just look at the historical data over and look
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: at very important markets and then just kind of tie
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: them to important events and then you know, and use
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: those as kind of signals that maybe things are getting
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: out of whack. One of the interesting things that I've
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: been looking at recently is the ten year Italian German
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: bond spread, right, because Germany is nominally the safe haven
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: asset of Europe, right, and I've been charting it versus
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the US.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: I've been turning the US.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: German ten and two year bond spread on a day
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: to day basis for like five years. So it's kind
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: of an obsessive, compulsive thing, and you know it is
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: watching it because you can watch how Christina le Guard
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: at the ECB has been kind of trying to maintain
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: credit spreads in order to keep the interest rate derivative
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: markets from exploding and then taking all the banks down
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: makes perfect sense, and it's also a measure of safe
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: haven status of what does the world think, what is
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a more powerful safe haven asset, Is it the US
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: treasury or is it the German bund You know, it
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: gives you a kind of a look a snapshot of
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: where global capital's head is as to where they what
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: they think of the political stability of Europe versus.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: The United States.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Well, then when you go one step further, interestingly, over
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: the course of the last year, since it became obvious
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: three year and a half that Donald Trump was going
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: to become president, the German Italian bond spread or the
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Italian German bondspread has collapsed. And where you know, Italian
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: debt was trading at like one hundred and sixty hundred
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: and seventy basis points higher than you know, German debt
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: at the ten year benchmark level. Now it's like eighty
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: basis points, right. But every time there was a spike higher,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: it was tied to some big event. And I know
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: like twelve of them that came out of this and
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: they were all, you know, something happened, a major event happened,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: and Christill le Guard at the ECB had to furiously
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: scramble to hold German button price, you know, the prop
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: up German button prices, and thereby you know, blow the
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: spread out versus the Italians, and then it would immediate
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: and then once we were past that, they would, you know,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: the the downtrend would continue. What this means, the overall
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: trend is is that Italy is being moved into the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: position to become the safe haven asset of Europe or
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: independent of the EU versus Germany. It's kind of the
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: tale of two core economies and they're kind of moving
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: in different directions. And with the return of Trump to
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: power and his clear preference of Georgia Maloney and backing
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: of Georgia Maloney versus Germany, France and everybody else and
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: the rest of the EU, it's very clear that Italy
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: is now being positioned as the fulcrum on which the
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: future of the EU rests. Wow and and a little
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: at a small geopolitic, final geopolitical code to this, which
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: is that of all the countries in Europe, Italy has
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: the most American military basis by far. This is true
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: interest science. It's like one hundred bases. We have like
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: one hundred bases in Italy. Yeah, giving us a lot
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: to chew over here. I had no idea that we
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: had that basis in Italy, but it all kind of
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: makes sense, right, and the focus of Trump to find
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a different power elite to align with in Europe rather
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: than the traditional alliance here since the post World War
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: two makes a lot of sense.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: It does.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Well, what I mean is like, if Trump is here's
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the thing, here's the thesis, right, and this is my hypothesis.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: If Trump understands that in order for the United States
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: to be truly free and independent, right and to enter
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: a new golden age, it's got to break with the
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: inferiority complex we have with old Europe that we have
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: to look at as finally the teenagers are about ready
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: to finally leave the parents' basement and go out into
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the world right in Europe as the parent and where
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: the kid, right, and we're the teenager. Well, if that's
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: the thesis, and here's all the bits and pieces that
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: support that thesis. Again, agree with them or disagree with them,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: I don't care, that's not my If that's for you
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: to decide. Is the list right, If that's the thesis,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: then let's start looking at the data points. Let's start
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: seeing what's going on and what is Trump doing to
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: affect that? Well, again, what would what would I do?
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: If I were Donald Trump, strategically, I would want to
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: split off Italy as one of the three tripods of
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: the You know, France, Germany, and Italy make up the
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: tripod on which the entire political and economic union of
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: the European Union rests. So if you can cleave one
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: of those legs out from the tripod.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: The whole thing falls over.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: So clearly we're not going to get Emmanuel macroan to
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: aside with the United States as much as because France
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: has always hated the US, Germany now with it, not
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: with Angela Merkel or Frederick Murrs or anybody else. The
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: only one who would the only the only power in
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Germany that would be willing to alie with the United
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: States would be ALUs vite L of Alternative for Germany.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: But she has more like she's more likely to alie
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: with Russia than she is with the US. And then
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: so the only the only post one of the populist
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: in Italy as represented by Georgia Maloney. And so it's
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: very clear, and we can see how Trump and Eon
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Musk and everybody else, we're working Maloney over very very hard.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: But she's in a very difficult situation politically, and then
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: you have to start drilling into her particular you know,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: then you have to like learn a lot about Italian politics.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: And if you think our politics are murking, you get it,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Italian politics go back to eight thousand years, right, that's right.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: And so this is the this is the kind of thing,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: but you know, the broad but in the broad scope
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: of things, you know, this is the way I look
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: at things. I'm you know, I'm an inveteran game player.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: I'm an inveterate you know, strategic thinker. This is the
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: way I operate at all levels. How do I gonna
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I'm in third place? How am I gonna get the firstlace? Well,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I gotta take that guy out. I get these two
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: to fight. I just start acting. So you're like the
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: British Empire always does, which is the set is, which
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: is the rue guns to both sides of the of
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the conflict, and then spark a conflict between them, and
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: then you know, sell guns to both sides afterwards, Like
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: that's what they do, and so we do too.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: Why don't we do that?
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Why don't we do that to the When don't we
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: do that to the rest of Europe? And see how
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: they like it, which is exactly what Trump is doing
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: right now, all.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: Right, and so interesting perspective. I like the fact that
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: you approach things from a totally different standpoint, certainly than
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: the mainstream and even then most alternative people that I
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: follow out there. The website is Tom Luango dot M
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: E t O M l U O n g O
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: dot me. Link is in the show notes of this interview.
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: And hey, if you think Tom's interview was interesting, please
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: give us a like share and all that stuff. Not
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: that it makes any difference because we are permanently shadow
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: band suppressed by our digital overlords. Town I have like
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: I'm working on something now. It is the biggest story
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: in digital suppression. I've finally gotten to the bottom of it.
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: Why it's happening, who is really behind it. You're going
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: to be shocked and all of you out there. You'll
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: never see it on this channel because they won't let
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: it out. But we've cracked the code. We've proven digital
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: suppression using AI.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Nobody was able to do it before.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: It was always a case of he said, she said.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: Now it's a case of AI says it's happening.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Here's the proof.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: Here are the receipts, so that'll be coming out soon
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: and ch Hey, all of you out there, please buy
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: the book. The links in the show notes the world
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: according to Martin Armstrong and conversations with the Master Forecaster.
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: I'm going to get you and Marty together, and I
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: don't know if I'll be able to understand it all,
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: but maybe those of you watching will be. Really appreciate
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: you coming on.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: Tom.
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: If there's any questions, shoot me an email KL at
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: Kerrie Lutz dot com. We'll get you an answer. Tom
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: really appreciate this. We'll talk to you again soon.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Carry appreciate it. Fit to meet you and
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: I have a good day.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,