Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Miller Tabak's Maley on Markets; Red Cross's Kieserman (Audio)

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Miller Tabak's Maley on Markets; Red Cross's Kieserman (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Charlie Tellot Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Taking Stock with
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  Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes and Pim Box on Bloomberg Radio D two
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  Speaker 1: Live at the US Tennis Open twenties six team for
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  Speaker 1: a Flushing Meadows Corona Parks Queen. We've had a terrific
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  Speaker 1: day here so far. I know he would love to
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  Speaker 1: be here with me because he loves sports of all kinds.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe next year we'll get Matt Maylee from Boston down
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  Speaker 1: to New York City to see some tennis and talk
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  Speaker 1: about the markets, which is what he's here to do
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  Speaker 1: with us today. Matt Maylely, of course you know him
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  Speaker 1: well listening to Bloomberg Radio. He's equity strategist at Miller
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  Speaker 1: tay Back. So Matt's uh, welcome to the show as always, Well,
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  Speaker 1: thank you. I do need to know, though, right away,
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  Speaker 1: who was the you know, some of the tennis people
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  Speaker 1: you've been playing with, because we're talking with this, because
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  Speaker 1: I do know that you are like the good luck person.
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  Speaker 1: But I mean eight back, I remember when when when
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  Speaker 1: Auburn beat Alabama on a missed field goal, like you were,
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  Speaker 1: you were there like a few days beforehand, and ever
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  Speaker 1: since then, every time you go to a sportsouting event,
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  Speaker 1: anybody you meet with it has has it wins and
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  Speaker 1: when a big way. So we've got to keep from
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  Speaker 1: from your mouth to all the tennis stars. Ears. Actually,
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  Speaker 1: we've had a lot of interesting people and we love
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  Speaker 1: to cover the business aspect of this. But we did
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  Speaker 1: speak to Alan Krueger, who was the former head of
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  Speaker 1: Council Leaving Economic Advisors, a leading US labor market expert,
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  Speaker 1: about the jobs report and about tennis. But Alan said,
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  Speaker 1: the reports in an economy is chucking along. Okay, it's
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  Speaker 1: a long expansion, and you know it's it's it's looking
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  Speaker 1: pretty good. It does probably set the fit up for
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  Speaker 1: an interest rate increase, et cetera. You know, maybe by
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  Speaker 1: the end of the year. Uh, what do you think
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  Speaker 1: about that in the context of what it means for stocks?
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  Speaker 1: The stocks did reasonably well today. A nice little game. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's a little I mean, I must have been
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  Speaker 1: I really I really thought that when the when the
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  Speaker 1: number first came out, I thought that the stocks rally
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more than they did. But it's still
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  Speaker 1: a nice game, as you say. But the one thing
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  Speaker 1: to note is that is that both the bond market,
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  Speaker 1: the treasury market UH, and the dollar. UH. The race
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  Speaker 1: moved up and the dollar moved up by the end
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  Speaker 1: of the day after initially going down in both cases.
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  Speaker 1: So they seem to think that UH September rate hike
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  Speaker 1: is still on the table. So we'll just have to
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  Speaker 1: see what happens, because we do get some set speak
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  Speaker 1: next week, and I'm sure they'll want to UH find
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  Speaker 1: tune a little bit what has been said recently by
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  Speaker 1: UH by UH chair of FETE, chair Yelling, and a
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  Speaker 1: vice chair of Fisher. So I'll be watching that very
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  Speaker 1: closely for one of these for stocks. You know, if
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  Speaker 1: if the markets statten along, we do get higher rates,
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  Speaker 1: I I do worry that that'll be a bit of
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  Speaker 1: a headwind for stocks. Well thank you, because so many
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  Speaker 1: people say, oh, what difference in one quarter point rate hike,
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  Speaker 1: no big deal, But I don't know if they understand
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  Speaker 1: how markets think and work to say that one rate
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  Speaker 1: hike wouldn't make any difference. Frequently markets say that's it.
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  Speaker 1: They're not just gonna do one, They're gonna keep hiking
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  Speaker 1: interest rates exactly. And the other half of that, of course,
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  Speaker 1: is that um, it's not just I mean, people will say, well,
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  Speaker 1: we'll have a big impact on the economy. Some people
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  Speaker 1: disagree with that. But even if you do agree with that,
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  Speaker 1: we do have to note that you look at margins.
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  Speaker 1: Debt on New York Stock to change is near record highs.
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  Speaker 1: And like we saw with UH when they had the
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  Speaker 1: first rate hike, the models for some of these leverage
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  Speaker 1: investors and when you see the cost of carrying all
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  Speaker 1: that leverage, all that margin will move up, so they
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  Speaker 1: will their models will tell them the g You've gotta
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  Speaker 1: wind some of that leverage, and that will cause the
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  Speaker 1: sub bit of artificial spelling, and that could weigh on
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  Speaker 1: the markets more than I think most people realize. So, UH,
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  Speaker 1: two part question, I guess Number one, is this it
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  Speaker 1: for the stock market? In I looked to next year
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  Speaker 1: to see more gains? And what is your strategy in
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  Speaker 1: the midst of all this? You know, second guessing the
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  Speaker 1: FED wedding for earnings which we just finished a seasonal
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  Speaker 1: and be here for what what do you do now? Well?
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  Speaker 1: I think that you I think you have to play
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  Speaker 1: on on the defensive side. However, having said that, UH,
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  Speaker 1: you have to be careful in which defensive groups you
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  Speaker 1: go into, because you know you look at the utility
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  Speaker 1: stocks that should been a great, great group this year
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  Speaker 1: and something we were very positive on, you know, at
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  Speaker 1: the very unit of the year, and we were early
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  Speaker 1: on it. But now you've gotten two levels where they
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  Speaker 1: you know, they've gotten extended on a valuation basis. So
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  Speaker 1: we've got to be careful there. So I really just think, actually, uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, picking your spots, looking at uh, even taking
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  Speaker 1: a few chips off the table, adding to cash. I
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  Speaker 1: know it doesn't need to get a whole lot right
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  Speaker 1: now or really anything, but you know, nobody ever lost
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  Speaker 1: money taking privates, and you look for opportunities if if
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  Speaker 1: if in one we do get a decline in the
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  Speaker 1: in the in the usual volatile fall months. All right,
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  Speaker 1: Matt Maye, you have a great three day weekend you too,
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  Speaker 1: and let us know what your schedule is about the
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  Speaker 1: college football this year. We all need to know it. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: Matt Maye, thank you so very much. Joining us from
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  Speaker 1: Miller tay Back where he's Equity Strategists in Boston. Now
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  Speaker 1: we want to turn our attention to Louisiana. As a
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  Speaker 1: matter of fact, yesterday we're speaking with John so from
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  Speaker 1: Cumblent advisers. Another tennis fan who covers the municipal bond
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  Speaker 1: market comes out every year. When I asked him about
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  Speaker 1: the big risk, one of the big risk to mutis,
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  Speaker 1: he said, well, we're really concerned about storms in the
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  Speaker 1: Gulf rebuilding Louisiana, how that has hit people and what
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  Speaker 1: it could mean for all those communities down there. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: And as a matter of fact, on that note, we
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  Speaker 1: want to bring in someone who knows all about this
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  Speaker 1: and how difficult it is and what's being done to help.
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  Speaker 1: Brad Keiserman. He's vice president for Disaster Operations and Logistics
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  Speaker 1: at the American Red Cross National Headquarters. So Brad, let's
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  Speaker 1: get right into this. How bad is the situation in Louisiana.
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  Speaker 1: I'd say this is the worst natural disaster in the
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  Speaker 1: United States since Hurricane Sandy a few years ago. Which
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  Speaker 1: is not to say that it is comparable to Sandy,
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  Speaker 1: although everyone will, well I think, make comparisons. But the
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  Speaker 1: over six trillion gallons of water fell in Louisiana over
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  Speaker 1: the forty eight hour period. Um, there's over a hundred
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  Speaker 1: and sixty four thousand structures that have been damaged by
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  Speaker 1: the flooding. That's twice the number of structures that are
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  Speaker 1: in Manhattan, So just to give people a sense to
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  Speaker 1: the magnitude of the damage. Weren't three weeks into this
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  Speaker 1: and we still had nearly fifteen hundred people in in
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  Speaker 1: eleven shelters last night, which is not typically what we
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  Speaker 1: see in any disaster. So a very very significant event,
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  Speaker 1: tragic for so many people, and most people don't have
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  Speaker 1: flood insurance, they did not live in a floodplate. I
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  Speaker 1: just want to stress this because I think sometimes people
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  Speaker 1: don't realize this is this is like even though maybe
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  Speaker 1: it's even once in a thousand year event for this region.
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  Speaker 1: These people were not negligender, careless. They just got hit
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  Speaker 1: by something absolutely unexpectedly devastating. That's exactly right that the
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  Speaker 1: vast majority of people who were impacted by the storm,
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  Speaker 1: and the storm is very much like our hurricane, except
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  Speaker 1: it wasn't. But it's sat on top of Louisiana. It
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  Speaker 1: was a tropical tropical system, and it can it caused
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  Speaker 1: that damage. Most of these people did not live in
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  Speaker 1: a floodplate. They would not have been required to get
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  Speaker 1: flood insurance as a condition of their mortgage. Uh, and
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  Speaker 1: so it really is devastating for them, and there's just
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  Speaker 1: a limit to what's going to be available to help
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  Speaker 1: them rebuild because as you know, you know, most insurance poemgolage,
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  Speaker 1: insurance doesn't cover that. The federal the federal programs, while
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  Speaker 1: they're very generous, certainly are going to pay to rebuild
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  Speaker 1: an entire home. So it's uh, it's gonna be very
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  Speaker 1: challenging recovery for many, many people. And now just to
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  Speaker 1: keep you at the Red Cross very busy and to
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  Speaker 1: just to keep our minds open for other people in
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  Speaker 1: this country who are facing storms and hurricanes. Uh, you're
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  Speaker 1: looking at Florida, you're looking at Hawaii. We are her Mean.
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  Speaker 1: Hurricane her Mean passed over Florida early this morning and uh,
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  Speaker 1: we had about five people and about fifty shelters in
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  Speaker 1: Florida and Georgia overnight. The storm is now passing through
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  Speaker 1: Georgia up across the Carolinas. It's supposed to go sit
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  Speaker 1: off shore. Uh, and I think it's going to cause
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  Speaker 1: tropical winds and rains for much of the mid Atlantic
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  Speaker 1: into early next week. And we're still concerned that it
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  Speaker 1: may reintentify into a hurricane and threat in the Northeast.
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  Speaker 1: So we're doing our our planning for that Hurricane Leicester. Meanwhile,
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  Speaker 1: out in the Pacific, about three miles off the coast
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  Speaker 1: of Hawaii right now, likely will begin impacts here in
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  Speaker 1: the next few hours and into tomorrow. Fortunately that track
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  Speaker 1: is is edging a little bit to the north of
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  Speaker 1: the island, but we still expect at least tropical force
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  Speaker 1: winds on Oahu and Maui. We've got about eighty people
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  Speaker 1: out there providing shelter, feeding, and the book relief supplies today. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, down in Louisiana have two thousand people and
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  Speaker 1: working via Florida Georgia line right now about three people.
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  Speaker 1: So it's been a very intense, very intense Friday and
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  Speaker 1: a very intense three weeks. So what's the number one
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  Speaker 1: thing you have learned now addressing uh, various kinds of flood,
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  Speaker 1: certain hurricane causes them. What happened in Louisiana. What's what
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  Speaker 1: is the big realization been for the American Red Cross? Well,
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  Speaker 1: I think that the most the biggest realization is about
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  Speaker 1: readiness and about our relationships with local and state emergency
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  Speaker 1: managers and with our partners in the local area. Those
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  Speaker 1: relationships are absolutely critical. The one thing you cannot get
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  Speaker 1: back in a disaster, especially flood is time. So time
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  Speaker 1: is of the essence and our collective ability to be
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  Speaker 1: prepared to respond, to open shelters, to begin feeding, to
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  Speaker 1: do damage assessments, to speed at which that has done
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  Speaker 1: often determines the caliber of of the of the recovery
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  Speaker 1: and the response. And so that's probably my hop lesson
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  Speaker 1: in those relationships and the need for speed. All right, So, Brad, Uh,
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  Speaker 1: these kinds of operations are very expensive. What have you raised?
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  Speaker 1: What do? What can people do now to help you
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  Speaker 1: do what must be done? So I think we certainly
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  Speaker 1: could use donations of funds, generosity and philanthropy much appreciated.
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  Speaker 1: Right now, we've raised about seventeen point four million designated
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  Speaker 1: just for Louisiana, but our costs will be the over
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  Speaker 1: twite as occasion what we're projecting right now with these
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  Speaker 1: UH literally tens of thousands of shelter stays and meals
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  Speaker 1: UH and UH and all of the services and and
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  Speaker 1: UH staff required to provide them. So donations, Folks can
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  Speaker 1: do that by going to UH called Red Cross. They
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  Speaker 1: can do that by going to red Cross dot org
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  Speaker 1: and making a donation there. We also need volunteers that
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  Speaker 1: we need volunteers in Louisiana, volunteers in Florida. And I'm
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: sure this we can admit Atlantic and people can volunteer
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  Speaker 1: from home. We do have things that you can do
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: from your home, virtual support and virtual case work. And
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: so if you want to volunteer, go to the Red
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  Speaker 1: Cross dot org website called your local Red Cross chapter.
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  Speaker 1: We can really really use you. Brad Kieselman. Thank you
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  Speaker 1: so very much. Something very important to ponder as we
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: enjoy the tennis at the US Open and think of
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  Speaker 1: our fellow Americans who need help. I'm Kathleen Hayes and
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg