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Sep 23 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the September 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloom. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com in West Bend, Wisconsin.
• 0:18
  We'll ask her about the upcoming grain stocks report. It's due out at the end of the month, and then we'll take a look at the NGFA. That's the National Grain and Feed Association. There are about 9,700 different places that grain is stored across the Midwest and the nation. Oh, by the way, that USDA grain stocks report takes a look into each of them or almost all of them and counts the bushels left in the bin each time they report on the quarterly numbers for the grain stocks.
• 0:54
  Anyway, we'll hear from Mike Davis about some studies that they've just released as it's related to the economic impact of grain elevators and storage spaces across The United States. As we finish up our time together, we'll talk with Dan O'Brien too about the agricultural energies, ethanol particularly, and profitability all on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg.
• 1:29
  announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 1:34
  Todd Gleason: In Chicago at the CME Group, corn finished about four higher and soybeans were up around a penny. Naomi Bloem from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at an up day at least for the corn market today. A little bit for beans too. Hey, Naomi. Thank you for being with us.
• 1:53
  Yesterday, corn managed to close higher, despite the losses in the bean market. Some more gains today. What do you suppose is behind this move?
• 2:02
  Naomi Blohm: Well, we have cooler heads prevailing today, and the corn market is actually back to trading corn fundamentals. So corn fundamentals, as you know, supportive for demand strong demand for exports. We had export sale yesterday morning. We had another export sale this morning along with strong weekly export inspections. So the demand is there and the uncertainty still swirls regarding what's in those fields as, early harvest reports still come in mixed.
• 2:32
  Talking with a farmer in Iowa today who last year was harvesting two forty to two seventy five yields. This year, it's 200 to two thirty. So substantially lower because of the southern rust. So corn market having that nice recovery rally today, loved that Dec corn was able to finish back above four twenty five. So market shaking off just some of that negative sentiment yesterday that was primarily tied to soybeans.
• 2:58
  Todd Gleason: Speaking of soybeans, we still are waiting for China to be in. However, they have been in the marketplace, just not for US purchases, apparently from Argentina.
• 3:10
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. So Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans on Monday after Buenos Aires scrapped the grain export taxes. So Argentina's temporary tax move boosts the competitiveness of its soybeans. So that's what made China go in and go after some of their fourth quarter needs. So that's what sent that bean market lower yesterday.
• 3:34
  But in general, still, you know, if if South America is is exporting a lot of their beans towards China, there's other South American customers then that are being ignored, and The US is able to fill some of that need. And we saw that with the weekly export inspections yesterday. You know, they were at 18,000,000 bushels. It was at the lower end of expectations, but we are still exporting product every week. So the demand has been lower.
• 4:02
  The USDA has acknowledged that for the past three reports, and now we're waiting for some early harvest yield results to come in. In Iowa today, the yield results were coming in consistent with last year, but in the Eastern Midwest, they are coming in well below a year ago just because of that dry August that the Eastern Corn Belt saw in August, just hot and dry.
• 4:26
  Todd Gleason: The economic model for an ethanol plant in Iowa is showing that it is profitable at this time. It can be and has been, I think, mostly that the grind in the fall particularly is quicker paced than the rest of the year. Do you think that will make a difference this year, particularly if they are profitable and will continue to be through the end of the season?
• 4:55
  Naomi Blohm: Well, it might be good news just to help keep us on track with USDA, projections for where corn use for ethanol demand is going to be. They have increased that from the year prior, so it's welcome news. And we'll get another glimmer of, ethanol news tomorrow in the morning on the weekly ethanol report data. So we'll see if there's still strong numbers coming through from there. But, of course, it's quite welcome, and, of course, we're also still waiting to hear more news on stronger blends of ethanol being used throughout the country year round, and that would, of course, would be supportive for ethanol and corn prices in general.
• 5:31
  Todd Gleason: Next Tuesday, a week from today, the United States Department of Agriculture will release the release the final grain stocks figures for the twenty twenty three, twenty four or 2425 marketing year, the one we are just closed out. What are your expectations, that we'll find in the bin? And that number will be our starting figure when we go into the October reports.
• 5:58
  Naomi Blohm: Right. So I I don't have any expectations right now. I feel like there could be a lot of wiggle room there on all the numbers, for each commodity. And but to your point, that is then the big cornerstone that the market will use because then that's the final number for the old crop that becomes the official then carry in number for the upcoming crop year. So traders are gonna be really watching that.
• 6:21
  I think we'll trade that report. It'll be substantial, but then we'll go right back to looking for harvest results and the strong seasonal tendencies that a lot of times corn and bean prices start to work higher throughout the month of October. So the market will be focused on month end position squaring, but then looking right away to the next calendar day, October 1.
• 6:40
  Todd Gleason: I want to turn to the livestock and then come back to the crops at the end of our conversation over the last three minutes or so. There was a USDA report out late last week. Inventory numbers, can you talk to me about that figure for beef cattle?
• 6:55
  Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So the cattle and feed report came in supportive versus expectations. Still just start showing that the herd is small, placement numbers coming in lower than expectations. So that report was supportive coming into Monday morning and still sets a foundation of tight supplies here in The United States. But then there was also additional news coming from, the Secretary of Agriculture.
• 7:19
  Her comment was that in addition, the USDA will soon release a significant plan to help rebuild the American cattle supply incentivizing our great ranchers and driving a full scale revitalization of the American beef industry. So just those little sentences got the market all jazzed up yesterday and prices rallied along with the cattle on feed report and was able to shake off even news that there was a new case of new world screwworm that had been detected just 70 miles from The US Mexican border. So the cattle market saw the pullback that we had had in recent weeks as an opportunity and a good base to see a recovery rally, and now we're waiting to find out what the secretary of agriculture really is implying by her comments, and then keeping an eye on demand for beef here in The United States and, of course, globally as well.
• 8:16
  Todd Gleason: It feels like all of those things could be related. We'll see once there are more announcements. Does cause me to ask the next question, which is usage domestic for feed is still really big from the United States Department of Agriculture. That might be related to something that's a policy that's not out. USDA wouldn't normally put that into doesn't put those into the supply and demand figures, but it just seems like it's awfully big at this point, particularly if, feed has to go across the border to Mexico to finish cattle out there.
• 8:52
  Naomi Blohm: Yeah. And that's a great point. And that would be a way that the USDA could do some maneuvering upcoming USDA reports. Meaning, if they need to lower yield because of the southern rust, they have a little bit of wiggle room in that feed demand number that they could lower demand and not do any big shifts to the ending stocks number. So that's what traders are looking at, essentially expecting heading into the October, and that is definitely a point of conversation in the coming weeks.
• 9:25
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it.
• 9:27
  Naomi Blohm: Thank you.
• 9:27
  Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Up next, The US grain and feed industry is a major driver of jobs and economic activity across rural America. At least that's the message from a new study just released by the National Grain and Feed Association. Mike Davis reports.
• 9:52
  Mike Davis: NGFA president and CEO Mike Seifert says the study quantifies the industry's reach.
• 9:58
  Mike Seifert: The harvest economy quantifies what many of us already know. That our industry is essential to rural communities, domestic and global food security, and The US economy. We found that America's grain and feed industry generates $401,700,000,000 in economic output annually and supports over 1,160,000 jobs nationwide.
• 10:18
  Mike Davis: The analysis conducted by John Dunham and Associates found there are nearly 9,700 grain and feed facilities across the country. Those facilities directly employ more than 175,000 workers who earn on average more than $84,000 a year. Seifert says the ripple effect extend far beyond those jobs.
• 10:41
  Mike Seifert: Supplier industries and local businesses benefit from our industry creating hundreds of thousands of additional jobs. From transportation to equipment, professional services, the impact touches nearly every sector of the economy. Not only that, the tax revenue our industry generates benefits communities from coast to coast. All told, we are contributing nearly $33,000,000,000 a year in taxes paid to federal, state and local governments.
• 11:04
  Mike Davis: The study also provides a state by state breakdown of jobs and economic output. Seifert says that data will help members of congress and local officials understand the importance of grain and feed in their districts.
• 11:18
  Mike Seifert: Every state and every congressional district benefits from our industry, whether it's Iowa where the impact tops $43,000,000,000 or smaller states where thousands of jobs depend on grain and feed facilities. This report shows just how vital our sector is. That is why it is so important for our elected officials to continue pursuing policies that further strengthen the industry and the economic contributions we make.
• 11:41
  Mike Davis: NGFA launched a new website alongside the report where people can download fact sheets and explore the data on a state and congressional district level. For more information, visit ngfa.org.
• 11:55
  Todd Gleason: Oh, thanks. Go to Mike Davis from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting, the NAFB. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extensions Todd Gleason inviting you to visit our website. The address is willag.orgwillag.0rg.
• 12:18
  There you'll find our daily programming. You can also find a list of podcasts we produce, including the closing market report. You can just search it out in your favorite podcast application by name. And there's information from the agricultural economist as well as the crop scientist and the animal scientist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus at the U of I, all at willag.org. Let's turn our attention as we do each Tuesday now to the agricultural in the marketplace.
• 12:59
  Dan O'Brien now joins us from Kansas State University Extension. He's an agricultural economist based way out west. Thanks much for being with us. I know you're, in an area that's mostly much drier, far closer to Colorado, than to Kansas City. I'm wondering what conditions are like there today, and then if you can talk a little bit because about the rest of the state, particularly the corn and soybean growing regions because I bet you have an understanding of them too.
• 13:31
  Dan O'Brien: Yeah. We've had a a pretty wet year for for us. In fact, right now, today, starting starting yesterday, later in the day, and continuing on. It's it's raining right now, which is both great for seeding winter wheat, hard hard red winter as we do, but but well, it's it's great if they've got the crop in the ground. And and and we're coming up on, you know, not far from corn, beans, sorghum harvests.
• 14:05
  Sorghum probably a little bit later with the cooler weather we've had. But, anyway, harvest coming up. We we in Kansas grow some beans in the Western third, but soybeans, especially in the, I guess, the eastern third, central third, pretty strong area. A lot of grain sorghum, particularly particularly in the North Central part of the state, and parts of the West as well. Of course, then corn everywhere and more I guess, with with the difference difference in the moisture across the state.
• 14:38
  We probably have our some of our strongest corn production areas in the Northeast part of the of of Kansas. In Southeast, we have we can do pretty well down there too, but our soil our quality soil depth is a lot thinner. So we're struggling down there just with the the soil situation. That's not the case in in Northeast part of the state, you know, tremendous soils. And those those yields for us, you know, they would they would rival what's not too far to the East, you know, in terms of parts of Iowa and Missouri.
• 15:11
  And then to the West, pardon me, in central part of the state, we we've had a, you know, it's looking like we're having a pretty good year. Of course, we have we have our localized areas where where where they may not have caught some rain, so they've had some hail damage. But, generally, throughout that central corridor, we were doing very well crop wise. In the West, probably also had very good yields for the most part, except except in a few spots that that, didn't catch the rains or caught caught what we call in Kansas hard water. So, anyway, or or hail hail issues in in the West.
• 15:45
  So so overall, we're doing pretty well, I think.
• 15:47
  Todd Gleason: And your basis is holding up, and producers are happy with prices, and they sold a lot early, I guess.
• 15:54
  Dan O'Brien: Is is is that the case in Illinois? I'm not sure that's the case here in
• 15:57
  Naomi Blohm: the city.
• 15:58
  Todd Gleason: No. No. No. I I think that's the I think that is not the case anywhere. Let's turn our attention to the agricultural energy markets.
• 16:08
  How's the profitability of the ethanol sector that uses, I don't know, 35, 36% of a corn crop Yeah. In any given year?
• 16:16
  Dan O'Brien: Well, the calculations through, September are looking pretty good. You know, profits based on on, I guess, that that Iowa model not far from kinda straddling Illinois and and Nebraska and parts of Kansas, at least showing about 24¢ a gallon, in in terms of profitability. The ethanol, price is about a has jumped up here of late. So so with that with the ethanol price going higher and the corn price sideways to lower, that's that's when you get profits like this. So so for the last last three months, we've had about had estimates of about 12¢ 12¢ profitability in, in July, August, about about $19.20 cents, and here's early first three weeks, September 24¢.
• 17:02
  So, you know, unless an ethanol plant is closing down for some type of refurbishing or or, or whatever, it it would seem to be a pretty pretty good time to run. Really, I guess, how how long will we maintain pretty, pretty decent motor fuel prices and and, that bringing ethanol along as well, in in the in the light of of of The US economy. And then if also add in, moderate strength in in in in even grain sorghum usage. In fact, in talking with the USDA economist here in the last, Steve Ramsey out of the ERS indicated that we've had strong grain sorghum into ethanol, which is prized for the for the grain sorghum industry, given the weakness we've been seeing in exports. So, overall, I guess that that'll be the story in in the as we look at the, ethanol market that, again, low price feedstocks coming into into whatever we have for the ethanol market.
• 18:09
  And if that holds up at least decently, then then you'd hope for a time of of at least okay profitability for ethanol plants.
• 18:17
  Todd Gleason: Given that profitability in the ethanol sector, will they pull more corn this fall than usual? And just keep in mind that, generally, it is front loaded.
• 18:28
  Dan O'Brien: I think we're in that situation where in in a number of these years, we've as the market is focused on strong, on on strong crop size that we've tended to have our lows actually in September, late August and September. And we've come out of those those lows, with aggressive buying for usage. And now we'll see this year with, you know, can our corn exports hold up? Will our will our projected ethanol usage still be as strong? And, you know, that's a those are fair questions.
• 19:05
  I think the, the USDA's last supply demand balance sheet for corn had really quite strong numbers in almost every category. In fact, record record for, I think, feed use ethanol, 5,600,000,000, bushels to be used, etcetera. So, they've they've set a pretty high goal even with even with the, and, well, and and record corn corn exports also. So I I think, a lot of what we'll be doing this winter winter will be examining the trends in in usage to see if they match up with the strong, even I'd almost say optimistic, numbers that the USDA has in that in that corn supply demand balance sheet. So we'll see.
• 19:49
  So and I I guess here, I'm a typical economist, Todd. You've asked me a question. I've talked in circles for two minutes. So I but but but the point is those are quite optimistic numbers, and I see why. You know, 16.7, 16,800,000,000 bushel corn crop, and we'll we'll need that type of usage to not just explode ending stocks to way above two, you way above 2,100,000,000.0.
• 20:12
  So I I I guess we shall see.
• 20:16
  Todd Gleason: Final question, this one on SAF or renewable diesel, the biofuels area related to soybeans. Do you suppose that that will be a push in the marketplace still given the policies that have been coming out of the Trump administration on these issues?
• 20:36
  Dan O'Brien: I should ask my colleague, David Ripplinger out of North Carolina State on that. I I I have not I I I confess. I I don't have a strong answer for you other than I I haven't heard from David, Dave Ripplinger, that that we're backing off that a lot. And, again, so much of that's driven by the European Union and their demand that for air air air flight for any air flights coming into Europe, which is so many of them, that that that in the future, they'll they'll require to have, you know, renewable renewable aviation fuels. So will that hold up or not?
• 21:14
  You know, there there are a lot of a lot of trade issues that are on the table that, that are contentious at the moment. And that one, I haven't seen tackled yet by the by our current US administration, but but, I guess I guess we'll wait and see. I I again, I and I haven't have not heard that the that the at least publicly that that the fuel providing industries have have put their foot down and were and and stomped against that. So so I Todd, I I don't know. I I haven't heard that we backed off of that of supporting that yet, but but if it if it becomes a burden upon the upon these industries, the airline industry in particular, then then who knows where that will go?
• 22:00
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you very much, Dan. We appreciate it.
• 22:03
  Dan O'Brien: Take care, Todd. Thank you.
• 22:04
  Todd Gleason: You too. That's Dan O'Brien. He's with Kansas State University Extension joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.
• 22:22
  Don't forget that Thursday of this week, you can join the Farm Doc team as they price out fertilizer for next year and what those input costs might mean for your corn and soybean crops. That's the webinar put on by Nick Paulson and Gary Schnickke starts at eleven a. M. It's absolutely free. You can find a link in our website at willag.org.
• 22:45
  Look in the calendar and then open up the red calendar of event and you'll find a link that you can cut and paste and register or you can just go to farmdocdaily.illinois. And look under the webinars and events segment. That's pharmdocdaily.illinois.edu. You have a great afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.