Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Shutdown Crypto Crash!!🚨Over This Week?🔥
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: On a record day of government shutdown. The market is
- 0:02Speaker 1: getting annihilated. Only one thing is going to say, but
- 0:05Speaker 1: we'll break it down for you today. It's going to
- 0:07Speaker 1: be a good one. Don't miss it. Let's just jump
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- 0:45Speaker 1: use our link. Okay, couple of things going on right now.
- 0:49Speaker 1: Crypto is getting hammered. Three hundred million worth of lungs
- 0:53Speaker 1: now liquidated just in the past sixty minutes. Bitcoin as
- 0:56Speaker 1: I am recording is under one hundred k. Looks like
- 0:58Speaker 1: it's going to bust one hundred k. As we record
- 1:01Speaker 1: right now, I want to open up real quick to
- 1:03Speaker 1: a clip because this clip we'll get into what is
- 1:06Speaker 1: the catalyst that could recorrect the market almost immediately.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Let's watch this, tying for the longest shutdown in American history.
- 1:17Speaker 2: Joining us right now is Oklahoma Republican Senator Mark Wayne Mullen.
- 1:20Speaker 3: And so they wanted to wait until after today because
- 1:23Speaker 3: they were afraid that they opened the government up before today,
- 1:26Speaker 3: that their base wouldn't show up and vote in Virginia
- 1:29Speaker 3: and New Jersey, where we have tied elections. After today
- 1:33Speaker 3: the negotiations to keep Dick Durbin, he will release everybody
- 1:37Speaker 3: and allow them to vote the way they want to.
- 1:40Speaker 3: So that's why I have said it very bullishly last
- 1:43Speaker 3: week and all weekend, is that Becky, we're going to
- 1:46Speaker 3: probably start negotiations tomorrow with the Democrats claiming victory will
- 1:51Speaker 3: probably had the vote in either tomorrow night or Thursday.
- 1:56Speaker 3: Then the House has got to come back because we're
- 1:58Speaker 3: going to have to make some changes to it to
- 2:00Speaker 3: change the date, and there's discussions about maybe putting three
- 2:03Speaker 3: appropriation bills on the CR two.
- 2:05Speaker 2: You think it's possible we could reopen the government this week, then.
- 2:08Speaker 3: Yes, I think we'll be open by Sunday. It depends
- 2:11Speaker 3: on that. Remember, it wants to happen.
- 2:13Speaker 1: The amount of market pressure that we're getting right now,
- 2:16Speaker 1: especially around government shutdown, along with a couple other things
- 2:18Speaker 1: that I think we're seeing in the market itself, I
- 2:21Speaker 1: think is being to a certain extent manipulated. Now, how
- 2:25Speaker 1: is bitcoin going to if it does go down to
- 2:27Speaker 1: the ninety eight which is something we've been talking about
- 2:29Speaker 1: with some of our analysts for a couple of weeks.
- 2:32Speaker 1: If you look at the polymarket right now, big change
- 2:36Speaker 1: just in the last couple of days. So what do
- 2:38Speaker 1: a few people know if we start seeing this adjustment
- 2:41Speaker 1: between November eighth and eleventh, which is now up to
- 2:44Speaker 1: twenty eight percent today being November fourth, so that would
- 2:47Speaker 1: be in the window of this week as a reopening.
- 2:51Speaker 1: If we continue to see the fall off dramatically from
- 2:54Speaker 1: the November sixteenth and beyond, so it does clearly point
- 2:58Speaker 1: to a very significant issue that is being addressed in DC.
- 3:03Speaker 1: I want to go further into this this of course,
- 3:05Speaker 1: with Trump and Trump saying doesn't matter snap benefits will
- 3:09Speaker 1: only be given when the US government has reopened. This
- 3:11Speaker 1: I think will continue to put more pressure on the Democrats.
- 3:14Speaker 1: Over forty million Americans rely on snaps, so this is
- 3:16Speaker 1: a big deal if Trump can continue to defy courts
- 3:20Speaker 1: on this, and it will push the Democrats into a
- 3:23Speaker 1: position that maybe could get us back open. Now. Scott
- 3:27Speaker 1: Bessen came on CNBC and he was talking about healthcare,
- 3:30Speaker 1: because this is another major factor, and the Republicans claim
- 3:33Speaker 1: that they have something already waiting in the wings. Listen
- 3:37Speaker 1: to what I had to say.
- 3:38Speaker 3: The premiums are going up because the cost is going up,
- 3:41Speaker 3: and there's no way to provide Affordable Care Act services.
- 3:45Speaker 1: How do you Is there a plan?
- 3:47Speaker 3: Because the President has talked about a plan for a
- 3:49Speaker 3: long time and here we are.
- 3:51Speaker 4: You know, I'm not going to preview it. That reopened
- 3:54Speaker 4: the government and then the talks can start. And we're
- 3:57Speaker 4: starting to see this effect the economy. The busiest travel
- 4:01Speaker 4: day of the year, the day after Thanksgimming is a disaster.
- 4:04Speaker 4: People aren't able to be with their families.
- 4:07Speaker 1: Bessen is right, it is affecting the economy. And I
- 4:10Speaker 1: think one of the things that is becoming more evident
- 4:13Speaker 1: is the amount of data loss that we have had.
- 4:16Speaker 1: If you look at this tweet by cobees sixty plus
- 4:19Speaker 1: day blackout is what we're up against right now. This
- 4:22Speaker 1: includes jobs reports, the unemployment rate, we get CPI inflation data,
- 4:26Speaker 1: PPI data, the monthly retail sales data. All of this
- 4:29Speaker 1: has been redacted right now based on a government shutdown.
- 4:34Speaker 1: The real question is what is the Fed going to do?
- 4:37Speaker 1: How is the market going to respond when we actually
- 4:40Speaker 1: see this carryover of data accumulation dropped into the market
- 4:45Speaker 1: at one time, as well as a government reopening, and
- 4:50Speaker 1: as well as possibly the Clarity Act and many other
- 4:53Speaker 1: things that could start to play into this. But there
- 4:55Speaker 1: are other things that have to play out for all
- 4:58Speaker 1: of this to be least on the way up, and
- 5:01Speaker 1: one of them, of course, you have to watch for
- 5:03Speaker 1: is the Supreme Court around tariffs. This would be the
- 5:06Speaker 1: last major catalysts that would be significant. If the Supreme
- 5:11Speaker 1: Court does rule that President Trump does not have the
- 5:15Speaker 1: executive powers to use tariffs like he has been using them,
- 5:20Speaker 1: this could change things dramatically. Market could roar out of this.
- 5:24Speaker 1: I think the key here is how this will get
- 5:27Speaker 1: resolved through the Supreme Court, and that's going to happen
- 5:29Speaker 1: this week. So be on the lookout for that. Also,
- 5:32Speaker 1: the New York City mayoral election is in. It looks
- 5:36Speaker 1: like Zoron Mondami is going to be the new mayor
- 5:39Speaker 1: of New York and that, of course is another critical
- 5:43Speaker 1: thing that needed to occur obviously for the Democrats as
- 5:46Speaker 1: we start to see a lot of this out of
- 5:48Speaker 1: the way and now that they can go back, hopefully
- 5:50Speaker 1: and get into a position of reopening the government. I
- 5:53Speaker 1: want to go to another clip because this gets into
- 5:56Speaker 1: how some of the states were responding to what was
- 5:59Speaker 1: happening in New York. Take a look well. Earlier today,
- 6:01Speaker 1: Kevin A. Rabbit tweeted about the New York City mayoral racing.
- 6:05Speaker 5: Quote, after the polls closed tomorrow night, I will impose
- 6:07Speaker 5: a one hundred percent tariff on anyone moving to Texas
- 6:11Speaker 5: from NYC.
- 6:12Speaker 1: That post is getting a lot of responses online.
- 6:14Speaker 6: As you can imagine, it will violate Article one, Section
- 6:16Speaker 6: ten of the United States Constitution, and it is discriminatory.
- 6:19Speaker 1: Blue states like New York literally fund red states and
- 6:22Speaker 1: keep them afloat. Then stop funding your tax cuts with
- 6:25Speaker 1: New York's money.
- 6:26Speaker 6: Isn't living in the same state as Greg Abbott?
- 6:28Speaker 1: Punishment enough, We call the Governor's office, which said he
- 6:32Speaker 1: was just joking. All right, I don't understand this was
- 6:36Speaker 1: I thought it was a great troll. I mean, what
- 6:38Speaker 1: a great troll on the time that you would troll
- 6:41Speaker 1: fifteen point four million views. He is definitely going for
- 6:46Speaker 1: elon trollability. So of course, obviously that is ridiculous. In
- 6:52Speaker 1: the great state of Texas. You would be tariffed if
- 6:55Speaker 1: you move in there. Other things that are happening. Of course,
- 6:58Speaker 1: all this going on during Ripple Swell, Robinhood confirmed that
- 7:01Speaker 1: the industry is being blocked by a lack of law.
- 7:04Speaker 1: And this of course is all referring to the Clarity Act,
- 7:07Speaker 1: which means we've got to get this underway.
- 7:09Speaker 6: Now.
- 7:09Speaker 1: Remember we think the Clarity Act is going to go
- 7:12Speaker 1: through with flying colors, We're going to get clarity. And
- 7:15Speaker 1: it's possible that we could see this even before Thanksgiving.
- 7:19Speaker 1: That's two weeks away, guys, two weeks away. That would
- 7:21Speaker 1: be an absolute move in the industry. And of course,
- 7:25Speaker 1: if you think about what we have seen around people
- 7:28Speaker 1: saying that we are going under one hundred k and
- 7:30Speaker 1: never coming back. This is reference to bitcoin. Then you
- 7:33Speaker 1: listen to Tom Lee saying we're at one fifty to two
- 7:36Speaker 1: hundred and a seven thousand s and P five hundred.
- 7:40Speaker 1: That's the kind of polar opposites that we're dealing with
- 7:43Speaker 1: right now. Further into what was happening, this is of course,
- 7:46Speaker 1: the Bank Policy Institute going in and says if stable
- 7:49Speaker 1: coins become more integrated into traditional financial system without full
- 7:53Speaker 1: safeguards keywords here, crypto market shocks could infect a broader
- 7:58Speaker 1: economy for the first time. From the BPI, I just
- 8:02Speaker 1: call bs on this one. This, of course, is the
- 8:04Speaker 1: bank industry trying to hold on for the last moments
- 8:07Speaker 1: of freedom that they have been holding on. In terms
- 8:10Speaker 1: of the American public, this does not really apply. This,
- 8:14Speaker 1: of course, was a response to this, and the statement
- 8:17Speaker 1: is more interested in reinforcing their BSA and the AML
- 8:20Speaker 1: motes than constructively suggesting improvements to the BSA, which is
- 8:24Speaker 1: really the way that they need to do it is
- 8:26Speaker 1: get with the times they've done it before. The bank
- 8:29Speaker 1: industry has modernized. I think this is just another one
- 8:32Speaker 1: that will push them into modernization around digital assets. We
- 8:35Speaker 1: will all have stable coins in our banks this time
- 8:38Speaker 1: next year, possibly as early as January or February, So
- 8:41Speaker 1: just be on the lookout. It's going to happen, guys,
- 8:43Speaker 1: and they'll come kicking and scream, screaming all the way.
- 8:46Speaker 1: Here's aDNA Freeman. She was, of course the CEO and
- 8:49Speaker 1: president of Nasdaq, and she says, we're waiting on the
- 8:53Speaker 1: Clarity Act.
- 8:53Speaker 5: Take a look can give us a temperature check of
- 8:56Speaker 5: the rest of the world of banking and other kind
- 8:59Speaker 5: of major legas the institutions who would also need to
- 9:01Speaker 5: be a part of the picture. But I think to
- 9:02Speaker 5: get them really engaged in the markets, there has to
- 9:05Speaker 5: be regulatory clarity, and I think that will make it
- 9:08Speaker 5: so that it accelerates the institucial adoption of digitalized system
- 9:12Speaker 5: in general.
- 9:12Speaker 1: Okay, so Adina, they're kind of talking to the point
- 9:15Speaker 1: that clarity is needed, and they know it's coming. This
- 9:18Speaker 1: is just a afterthought. I think we understand that Congress
- 9:23Speaker 1: is going to get this through. It's going to happen, guys.
- 9:26Speaker 1: This is just a matter of time before it does.
- 9:28Speaker 1: And I realized the government shutdown is really the nemesis here.
- 9:33Speaker 1: It is the reason we're in this position right now.
- 9:35Speaker 1: Otherwise the market would I think the market would be
- 9:38Speaker 1: absolutely soaring. And if you can continue to see where
- 9:41Speaker 1: gold is holding very solidly around four k the s
- 9:44Speaker 1: and P well into this deep sixty nine hundred range,
- 9:48Speaker 1: does it hold in continued to fly because only risk
- 9:51Speaker 1: assets are the ones that have really kind of had
- 9:53Speaker 1: the most hit. Now Citybank says we don't necessarily want
- 9:57Speaker 1: to go this direction, and they're going into how they
- 10:01Speaker 1: want to do it, which is public access. Let's know
- 10:03Speaker 1: what they had to say.
- 10:04Speaker 7: Clients don't want just a city token right like that,
- 10:07Speaker 7: and nor do we need a blockchain for a purely
- 10:09Speaker 7: city token. But from day one, our strategy has always
- 10:13Speaker 7: been like network driven, and you know, we've been in
- 10:15Speaker 7: the private permission world because that's the only place we
- 10:18Speaker 7: could operate right And now with this new administration and
- 10:21Speaker 7: genius and the clarity coming hopefully no pun intended, it
- 10:24Speaker 7: gives us that clarity about what does it mean for
- 10:27Speaker 7: highly regulated institutions like us to be able to you know,
- 10:30Speaker 7: engage with public chains. So unless it's clearly like permissionble
- 10:34Speaker 7: what we can and cannot do, we're not going to
- 10:36Speaker 7: engage in that space.
- 10:37Speaker 8: I having worked at banks many years, banks are proud
- 10:40Speaker 8: and what was it like to try to, you know,
- 10:44Speaker 8: convince City that city token wasn't maybe going to be
- 10:47Speaker 8: the way through. So pitting you on the spot a
- 10:51Speaker 8: little bit, but.
- 10:52Speaker 1: Well, I just should say, you know, what was it
- 10:54Speaker 1: like to ben the knee. That's the issue that I
- 10:57Speaker 1: think a lot of these banks will face over time. Now,
- 11:01Speaker 1: the real I think question out there in the market
- 11:04Speaker 1: is going to be how will consumers react to a
- 11:07Speaker 1: much more open banking system to where you could move
- 11:09Speaker 1: your assets around pretty freely, because right now there's still
- 11:13Speaker 1: quite a bit of lock up even on cash of
- 11:14Speaker 1: being able to do withdraws, a lot of limitations around ACCH,
- 11:18Speaker 1: a lot of limitations on wires, you know, the process
- 11:20Speaker 1: that you have to jump through to get that done.
- 11:22Speaker 1: This really does change things a lot further into this,
- 11:25Speaker 1: of course, senators aim to pass the Bitcoin and Crypto
- 11:28Speaker 1: Market Law before thanks Gimming, and of course this is
- 11:32Speaker 1: the point I'm getting at. It's going to happen. I
- 11:34Speaker 1: think Thanksgiving will be a absolute barn burner around the
- 11:37Speaker 1: market because I think we're going to see clarity. If
- 11:40Speaker 1: it doesn't get the final at least we'll have the
- 11:43Speaker 1: definition that is going to happen very very closely to
- 11:47Speaker 1: that time frame. Now, other things that were happening at Swell.
- 11:52Speaker 1: We're pretty indicative of where the market is right now.
- 11:55Speaker 1: This is an announcement about Ripple unlocking what we'll We'll
- 12:00Speaker 1: see in potential institutional capital that we have never seen
- 12:04Speaker 1: before coming into the market. Take a look now.
- 12:06Speaker 9: Last month, Ripple made a significant expansion into the multi
- 12:09Speaker 9: trillion dollar corporate treasury market through its one billion dollar
- 12:12Speaker 9: acquisition of G Treasury. Please welcome the CEO of G Treasury.
- 12:16Speaker 9: We're not very key to the desks.
- 12:18Speaker 6: So think about us as being the control panel that
- 12:22Speaker 6: a CFO or treasurer uses to manage their treasury function
- 12:26Speaker 6: within large corporates. We serve clients like American Airlines, Subway,
- 12:30Speaker 6: Hartford Insurance, and we do that on a global basis.
- 12:33Speaker 8: Balance sheet management, assets liabilities and duration management and things
- 12:37Speaker 8: like this, you know, short and long term financing. This
- 12:40Speaker 8: is what that dashboard has on it.
- 12:42Speaker 6: Absolutely, they typically have a complex banking network. All of
- 12:46Speaker 6: that within one panel is what's happening. We manage two
- 12:50Speaker 6: hundred and fifty billion in the accounts that we monitor,
- 12:53Speaker 6: so we orchestrate thirteen trillion of payments. They can now
- 12:56Speaker 6: move money instantly and get yield on nights and weekends,
- 13:00Speaker 6: there's virtually no activity. So imagine a world now where
- 13:04Speaker 6: Ripple brings a product that can make that money work.
- 13:07Speaker 6: So this faster pace of money movement will allow for
- 13:11Speaker 6: use cases that they've never thought about before. It's an
- 13:14Speaker 6: explosion of excitement.
- 13:15Speaker 8: I'm thinking also about hedging. American Airlines has to hedge
- 13:19Speaker 8: fuel prices and other prices. Hartford Insurance I think you mentioned,
- 13:22Speaker 8: I mean they have to hedge equity prices and rates.
- 13:25Speaker 8: Maybe not seven days a week. Are you going to
- 13:27Speaker 8: kill all your client's weekends?
- 13:29Speaker 6: So I had not thought about that problem.
- 13:32Speaker 8: Actually, your competitors must have lost some sleep after they
- 13:36Speaker 8: saw what happened, you know, to your firm.
- 13:38Speaker 6: Yeah, it was a nice night.
- 13:42Speaker 1: This is much bigger than I think a lot of
- 13:44Speaker 1: people are giving it credit for. This was I think
- 13:47Speaker 1: one of the final artistic moves by garling House and
- 13:50Speaker 1: his team to put Ripple in a very unique position,
- 13:54Speaker 1: more so than any other industry leader out there. If
- 13:58Speaker 1: you look at where Ripples has been in terms that
- 14:00Speaker 1: are almost two and a half billion dollars worth of acquisitions,
- 14:03Speaker 1: So big noise I think coming in from New York
- 14:07Speaker 1: right now? All right, So other things that were happening there.
- 14:09Speaker 1: At the event, a bit Wise referenced how successful there
- 14:12Speaker 1: Solana ETF was and where they think this is going
- 14:16Speaker 1: from here, because they're kind of giving a six month
- 14:18Speaker 1: window for some big things to happen.
- 14:20Speaker 9: Take a look, did you predict that beesol would perform
- 14:24Speaker 9: so well? And dig a little bit deeper.
- 14:26Speaker 10: It's incredible. Yesterday it took in about seventy million dollars
- 14:29Speaker 10: and it's gathered over four hundred million dollars in five
- 14:31Speaker 10: business days, and individuals who are using the benefit of
- 14:34Speaker 10: an ETF allowing them to access it in retirement accounts
- 14:37Speaker 10: and other types of accounts. So I think that there's
- 14:39Speaker 10: still a huge amount of capital that has not been
- 14:43Speaker 10: able to access many assets. We're fortunate to be able
- 14:46Speaker 10: to launch an XRPTF. I think it'll be a similar story.
- 14:48Speaker 10: Having said that, I don't think that investors are going
- 14:51Speaker 10: to have a portfolio of twenty three different digital assets.
- 14:55Speaker 10: So I think over maybe the six to twelve month timeframe,
- 14:58Speaker 10: more investors will turn tow you in next solutions.
- 15:02Speaker 1: All Right, he might be right that was a hunter
- 15:04Speaker 1: coming in from Bigwise, and he may be right around
- 15:07Speaker 1: index solutions, But I think the big three or four
- 15:11Speaker 1: will most likely still win. In terms of the isolated ones.
- 15:14Speaker 1: That includes Bitcoin, ETFs obviously what we'll see within the
- 15:18Speaker 1: ethereum network, and then of course XRPN, Salona. Those would
- 15:22Speaker 1: be the big ones. I think that will lead out
- 15:24Speaker 1: the pack. I guess that's a good thing in one way,
- 15:27Speaker 1: but if you're an ETF investor, you might want to
- 15:29Speaker 1: look at the index side of things. Now. One other
- 15:31Speaker 1: catalysts that could play into this is going to be IPOs.
- 15:34Speaker 1: IPOs have been pretty much at bay since the government
- 15:38Speaker 1: shut down. According to Friedman, there is a huge pent
- 15:42Speaker 1: up demand and lineup of IPOs coming that are crypto oriented.
- 15:47Speaker 5: Take a look, and then when we look at the pipeline,
- 15:50Speaker 5: the immediate pipeline of companies wanting to come out either
- 15:52Speaker 5: through IPOs or spac combinations that have already been announced,
- 15:55Speaker 5: about seventeen companies that are waiting to come out immediately.
- 15:59Speaker 5: Webviously are sitting on a government shutdown right now. It's
- 16:02Speaker 5: slowing things down of it. But of those seventeen, I
- 16:05Speaker 5: think either twelve or thirteen are coming to an assax,
- 16:08Speaker 5: so some to come out, hopefully in the last month
- 16:11Speaker 5: or so of year. But we are expecting actually a
- 16:14Speaker 5: pretty busy first quarter just because of the fact we've
- 16:16Speaker 5: had some delays in the fourth quarter.
- 16:18Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so delays in the fourth quarter obviously
- 16:21Speaker 1: government shutdown. Coiling into that right there. Obviously we look
- 16:25Speaker 1: at the market right now on a massive red day
- 16:29Speaker 1: with bitcoing down almost five percent just as we're recording
- 16:33Speaker 1: right here. If this is the point of no return, guys,
- 16:36Speaker 1: I think we are in this range of possibly the
- 16:39Speaker 1: ninety eight to ninety seven range that is going to
- 16:43Speaker 1: be considerable. And it's possible even if you look at
- 16:46Speaker 1: ethereum holding it right around thirty two hundred and thirty
- 16:49Speaker 1: three hundred right now, if we clip down to what
- 16:52Speaker 1: we could see and that is under three k, because
- 16:54Speaker 1: there'll be a large wall of resistance there. This is
- 16:58Speaker 1: the line in the sand. If we don't get in
- 17:01Speaker 1: at least a government reopening. That's how much of this
- 17:04Speaker 1: is in affecting the crypto markets. This may be the
- 17:08Speaker 1: beginning of a bear market. Yep, you heard me say it.
- 17:10Speaker 1: Those are the kind of things that if and the
- 17:13Speaker 1: other question you have to ask is has it gone
- 17:15Speaker 1: along so long that this has started to cause permanent
- 17:19Speaker 1: damage to the market, especially on risk assets. All Right,
- 17:22Speaker 1: you guys, if you're not in our Diamond Circle, make
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- 17:29Speaker 1: following me out there on X, make sure and do that.
- 17:32Speaker 1: It's just at Paul Baron. We'll catch the next time
- 17:34Speaker 1: right here on The Paul Baron Show.