Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 215: Winter 2025 Forecast: Long Cycles, Storm Signals, and Ag Impacts with Gary Lezak

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215: Winter 2025 Forecast: Long Cycles, Storm Signals, and Ag Impacts with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down the
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  weather cycle. Happy beginning of December.
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  We are finally to a point where the weather cycle has fully set
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  up. And so Gary is breaking down our
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  winter weather forecast today. He is talking about weather
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  droughts are shrinking or growing in certain areas of the
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  United States. We are talking about winter
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  storm systems and what we can anticipate across the entirety
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  of the United States. We are talking heat and cool
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  pattern, like is it going to maybe heat up a little bit in
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  the middle of December and in January are we going to get an
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  ice storm? We are breaking all of those
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  things down today on the podcast.
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  Before we jump in, if you are watching on YouTube, make sure
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  that you are subscribed to our channel that you take a second
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  to like this episode. If you're on any of our podcast
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  platforms, make sure that you are subscribed to our show and
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  take a second to go right and review it as well.
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  And without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
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  How are you? How is life in beautiful
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  Colorado? We got some snow here in Kansas
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  yesterday, so I'm praying that you guys got some in Colorado
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  too. And the slopes got a little bit
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  of snow and all the things, but no.
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  Nothing. No.
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  We got snow in Kansas before you did in Colorado.
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  Kansas City had five inches of snow yesterday.
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  Here in Golden, we had 1/2 of an inch on Saturday, so that was
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  our first snow .2 inches of snow fell in Denver.
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  Now that's about the change as a storm coming in tonight.
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  That four to 10 inches of snow is likely in the foothills and
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  the mountains have been getting snow, but they're about 37% of
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  average snowfall, which is very, very, very bad start.
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  That is crazy. We'll see what helps.
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  But yeah, the pattern setup, it's exciting.
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  I'm working on the winter forecast.
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  It is an epic winter forecast. I'll say it out loud because I
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  know what everyone else's winter forecasts are from, from
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  company. ABCD might see five different
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  winter forecasts out there. They show you one page.
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  Oh, look at that. We're going to be equal chances
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  of this and equal chances of that, and you get all excited
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  about it and it means nothing to you.
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  Ours is about 40 pages long and it's taking forever for me to
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  get it done. Lots of effort into it and I'm
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  going to show a little bit of it with you today as if that's OK.
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  Absolutely. Absolutely.
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  I am very excited to see it. We've been talking about it for
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  the past few weeks as this pattern has been setting up and
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  as we've been kind of diving into this new cycle.
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  So it's a very exciting time that we get to dive in.
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  So I would love to see it. Gary, let's start there.
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  Absolutely. So let's do it.
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  Can you see my screen? Not yet.
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  Are you? Yeah.
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  Well, then we're not going to worry about it because it's not
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  going to let me do it. So it's OK.
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  I won't share it with you, but I'm going to call it up myself
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  and tell you what I'm showing you.
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  Basically the pattern for the season is setting up.
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  The weather pattern is cycling regularly.
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  The LRC is something I discovered back in 1987 and 1988
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  and I have a mural on my wall right over here and I'm going to
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  put that in my presentation that you can go and see.
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  If you just go to weather2020.substack.com, you'll
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  see the link below. We have a 50% discount right
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  now. But anyway, point is, go in
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  there and you'll get the full report and we'll track it for
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  you in the year ahead. Basically, why long range
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  weather is predictable. Every winter follows a unique
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  atmospheric pattern. All right, so this year's
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  pattern is unique. It hasn't snowed here in Golden.
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  It's going to snow tonight. And I looked and saw the weather
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  pattern that was developing, that's creating the snow for
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  tomorrow. In the past 60 days, there was
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  not a pattern like it. So this cycle is a very long
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  one, almost for sure. The LRC is the centerpiece of a
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  big atmospheric puzzle. In my presentation, I'll be
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  showing that puzzle. The corner pieces are La Nina,
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  the Arctic consolation, North Atlantic isolation, and Enzo
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  basically. And you have the PDLPNAMJL
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  things you might have heard of. But the big centerpiece is the
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  LRC, what I discovered back 40 years ago, and you can go 30-40
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  years before me, this famous meteorologist, Jerome Nemias, he
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  was close to discovering what I found independently 40 years
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  later. He called it the index cycle.
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  But he didn't realize that the whole pattern repeated over and
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  over again. Like last year there were
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  tornado outbreaks. They are on that rhythm.
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  Last year was about a 4041 day cycle and every 40 to 41 days
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  there were tornadoes across the United States.
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  So we have this pattern that is set up so far.
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  It is unlike any patterns ever happened before, which is one of
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  the characteristics of my whole hypothesis that I've been
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  sharing for 40 years. Every year is unique and this
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  weather pattern is about to produce snow.
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  Here tonight where I live finally for the first time, is a
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  pattern that hasn't happened before.
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  Why is it taking this long for the snow in Colorado?
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  It's ridiculous. Kansas City, Manhattan, you're
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  not supposed to have snow before Golden Co.
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  It is is extremely rare. And this is the latest snow,
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  first snow ever here, however, So now we know the pattern is
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  cycling. What does it mean?
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  What does it mean for you to work with Weather 2020 and
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  understand the benefits for agriculture?
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  What we're going to be able to predict as we learn more in the
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  next week or two. Which weeks will be wet?
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  Which weeks will be dry? So if you have a three-week dry
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  spell forecast for March 15th to March 30th, then maybe you want
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  to get your planting in early. But what if our model shows what
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  then and the three weeks are April 1st, April 20th, you know,
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  oh gosh, that's perfect for my planting.
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  So you can start planning, get Peace of Mind and and you plan
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  your operations for planting, what type of seed to use.
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  Then you go look at our windows, which weeks are expected to be a
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  cold snap right after planting? Could there be a hard freeze?
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  Could that be a danger? You can look at our model
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  predicts that to the LRC model from January through September
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  has this data for you something that you've never had ever in
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  your arsenal to use as an advantage.
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  And it's accurate. It's accurate.
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  It's not 100% accurate. All right, I'm not claiming that
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  I have some people around me going Gary, why don't you admit
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  when you're wrong? I'm like, OK, let me see when
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  was I wrong There, there. We will admit when we're wrong.
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  For example, hurricane season. We predicted a rather active
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  hurricane season and the United States did not have one
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  landfall. I know what happened now.
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  We were the most accurate three years in a row.
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  This year we might come in 10th place.
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  So three years in a row, like the Chiefs going to the Super
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  Bowl, 3 years in a row. They might not make the playoffs
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  this year. We'll see they better.
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  That doesn't mean they're bad like everyone says all of a
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  sudden. Maybe next year they'll bounce
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  back. Well, the LRC will do really
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  well. So I'll admit when we're wrong.
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  Hurricane season, I know what happened.
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  There were some parts of that that were right.
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  My point is we're not 100% accurate.
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  I claim 50 to 60 to 70% accuracy on these predictions.
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  Believe it or not, those models, you look at your app, when you
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  look at it and it's a snow a week from tomorrow, those are
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  only 20 or 25% accurate, just so you know.
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  So when we say 50 to 60 to 70% accurate, that's really good.
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  I want to be 100% accurate, believe me.
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  And I put that pressure on myself every every day.
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  So anyway, Lauren, I know I'm just talking and talking and
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  talking. The pattern is set up.
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  What does it mean for your location?
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  The winter forecast is out. We're going to share it.
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  I'm going to be heading to Grand Island next week and I'm talking
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  to a group of crop experts out there that I'm going to be in in
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  sharing this with them. And so we're going to spread the
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  word about what we can provide as an advantage for you.
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  We have some tools that I think you should all have.
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  Absolutely. What is so, what is the pattern?
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  What are we seeing right now? I know we aren't 100% fully set
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  up in the cycle yet. We've still got a few more days,
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  but what is the cycle showing right now, especially for our
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  Midwestern states? I know it's kind of different as
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  we go to different regions, but what are we seeing right now?
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  We were talking about some drought concern a few weeks ago.
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  We were talking about like predictive rainfall and storms,
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  all those things. What are you seeing right now as
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  we prepare for winter? The droughts are either
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  expanding or contracting. Last year for the fourth year in
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  a row for agriculture, we have had an accurate forecast for you
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  predicting whether the drought was going to be a concern or not
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  in most locations. Last year we predicted the
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  drought would be contracting which means shrinking and it did
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  until about August and September when it started to expand a
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  little bit. So we know in August and
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  September was expanding. Since September 3rd, drought
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  conditions have decreased or maintained themselves or we're
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  still monitoring it closely. I'm looking at it right now from
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  September 30th to December 1st. It's gotten a little drier in
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  Iowa, South Dakota, but they just had a significant snow
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  storm and that likely will be shrinking.
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  Florida has been getting drier, but the Corn Belt itself is
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  slightly decreasing on the drought conditions.
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  But as we go into the spring, we're going to monitor that
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  closely. The pattern is a very wet one
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  for Southern California, a wet one for North Dakota, but for
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  Nebraska, for Iowa, for Indiana, Illinois, the trend has been to
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  be right near average. So we're still analyzing that
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  pattern to see what the impacts will be this winter.
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  But just know that the drought conditions have been slightly
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  letting up a little bit over the plains.
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  And so that's that's what's going on.
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  But overall, our model, the LRC model shows dry weather over
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  Colorado and South Dakota specifically and near or above
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  average for Kansas, eastern Colorado.
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  So that's what the trends are right now is for near to above
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  average precipitation across Kansas and not drier than
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  average. What are your thoughts on winter
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  storms and what we're going to be seeing as we prepare for all
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  of that? Because December 1st hit and our
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  first snow came and I know we're all kind of buckling up here in
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  Kansas getting ready for true winter to hit.
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  So what are your thoughts on just kind of winter storm
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  predictions and things like that as we move forward?
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  Well, the part of the pattern that just came through with your
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  first snow will cycle back through probably around the
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  first few days of February, the way it's looking on his long
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  cycle. So you didn't have a a major
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  winter storm yet? That was a small one.
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  It's still interesting watching this evolve.
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  There's a there's a part of the pattern that has storm systems
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  intensifying as they head across Montana into western Nebraska
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  and South Dakota and then they start to form into a storm right
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  over Omaha, NE down to Kansas City and then they move off to
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  the east, northeast. There have been eight of those
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  systems in this first cycle. So that's interesting for Iowa
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  where it was drier until very recently to get more moisture
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  and significant snowstorms like they just had.
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  But western Kansas and the Colorado, a concern when that
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  happens. But that's Phase 1 of this
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  year's LRC. There are two phases.
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  Phase one, what I just told you about, there's a phase two of
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  these big troughs form down the West Coast and bring California.
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  It's rain that warms up the eastern third of the country,
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  maybe eastern half of the country has our to care retreat.
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  But I see an amplification of that western through once or
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  twice happening which could lead to a major ice storm over parts
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  of Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri.
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  So something to monitor closely. I haven't identified exactly
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  when that may happen yet, but more likely, now that I think
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  about it, mid January for that possibility of a rather
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  significant system. Good for moisture, but could be
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  bad for impacts on people's lives.
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  Yeah, absolutely. It is definitely so fun to sit
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  back and see this pattern set up and see what we kind of have in
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  store for the next few weeks. So, Gary, as we move forward and
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  as we kind of start to round out this podcast, as we just look
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  into the next few weeks into December, what are your thoughts
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  for those next few weeks as we finished setting up the pattern
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  and kind of get rolling on phase one again and start cycling back
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  over? Well, when it goes to phase two,
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  which is going to happen here, I expect that by mid-december,
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  that should be a big warm up over the eastern half of the
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  country. So that's due in two weeks.
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  We'll have to watch to see if it over amplifies.
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  So it over amplifies then we have a major storm while it's
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  warming up. So that could be in that storm
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  would track from Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, N into the
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  Great Lakes. So something to watch for the
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  middle of the month. Some models have been starting
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  to show that I've already I already have that in the
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  presentation for the winter forecast that's going to come
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  out later this week, but that's something to look for.
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  Then after that goes by a big warm up in the east and
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  impossible major storm in the middle and the West.
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  Then we go back into that pattern that's going to produce
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  potential Arctic blast later in the year or in January.
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  So we'll be monitoring all of the above.
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  Yes. Any other?
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  Highlights or anything in your winter forecast report that we
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  have not touched on today that we need to talk about?
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  No, just one thing to always give a mind.
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  I have to remind myself, the LRC provides the blueprint of the
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  atmosphere. So we are able to predict the
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  blueprint of the atmosphere. That's what the LRC provides and
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  I put a lot of pressure on myself and our team at Weather
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  2020 to get it right. But we're not going to be 100%
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  accurate. It's just as I talked about
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  it's, it blows my mind that we know what's likely going to
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  happen in the next year ahead. And so that's just something
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  that to pay close attention to. Absolutely.
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  Thank you so much for your time today, Gary.
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  I am so excited to talk next week and the week after and just
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  as this pattern continues to evolve and take shape and what
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  this winter is going to look like.
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  Just breaking all of that down with you to all of our
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  listeners. If you are interested in
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  anything Gary and I talked about today, head to those show notes
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  down below. We've got that sub stack link,
• 16:17
  the exclusive discount link for Weather 2020 with our Cattle USA
• 16:21
  partnership, all of the different things that you could
• 16:23
  possibly need down there. Thank you for listening to
• 16:25
  another episode and we will see you all next time.
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  Have a good one y'all.