Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Allison Thompson | Money farm

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Allison Thompson | Money farm · AG Bull

• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the ground goes squish in my in-laws' backyard here in central Iowa.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: The corn and soybean markets seem pretty excited.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm here.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Even the livestocks are up to start the week.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: We'll dig into the markets today and start the week with a little bit of perspective.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Testing the limits of American Hotel Wi-Fi.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Ag Squawk in the afternoon, everybody.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Your pal, Davis Michelson, on the road, the handsome newsman with uh boots on the ground here in central Iowa, back to my homeland to see the folks, the in-laws, the outlaws.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, it's it's great being back.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: But I noticed when we left Kansas City, it was 95 degrees, blazing sunshine, about as hot as it could be.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: Although we've seen it hotter.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: But it was hot.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: By the time we got four and a half, five hours north here into central Iowa.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: It was 25 degrees cooler.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: It was rainy-ish, just sort of wet and cloudy.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: And that's been the situation ever since, with the one exception of today.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Woke up and it was it was raining absolutely.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I hate to say cats and dogs.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody says cats and dogs.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: It was raining petunias and tulips.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: It was raining hard most of the morning today.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like it's it's eased off just a little bit.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, the ground goes squish out here, and I wonder if that's gotten into the markets today.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Heck of a day for the corn, the soybeans, even the wheat, the livestocks were higher.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Everything was up across the board today, it seemed like.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got a great person to talk with about it today, Allison Thompson from the Money Farm.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: She's up in Minnesota.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, we can get a little bit of perspective, but Doc Gone it, uh, the markets certainly seem to like it when Allison is on the show.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: So uh we may be seeing lots, lots more of Allison in the uh in the weeks and months to come.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: I do hope so.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking forward to the conversation.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: So before we get started, if you're not an AgBull subscriber yet, we'd love to have you go to AgBull.com.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'd urge you to check out all the info available at Agbull.com.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: You can also call us at 855-737 Farm 855-737 FAR, followed by the letter MAGBOL.com.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Beef up your AgBull Intel.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get to a little bit of news and then we'll hit the markets and then I'll bring Allison in and we'll have a nice conversation.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking forward to it.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: beef production is expected to decline this year and next as cattle slaughter remains historically low, according to USDA.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: The Economic Research Service said Thursday that 2026 beef production is projected down 90 million pounds from its August forecast.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: The agency lowered its 2027 projection by 145 million pounds.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: USDA said fewer cattle are expected to enter feedlots late this year and early into 2027, slowing marketings during the second half of next year.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Higher projected feed costs are also expected to reduce carcass weights.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: And despite tight cattle supplies, USDA lowered its cattle price forecasts, citing weaker packer demand and reduced processing capacity.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell does such a great job of keeping an eye on the cattles.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: He's a cattleman himself who would know better straight from the cattleman's mouth, we say about Jed Sidwell.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: I might have to have a conversation with him tomorrow about some of those things.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: But in the meantime, let's go on to this.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Here's something that we've been watching here on Ag Squawk.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Mandatory country of origin labeling for beef moved closer to returning after the Senate Ag Committee advanced its version of the 2026 Farm Bill.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: The legislation includes an amendment tied to the American Beef Labeling Act that would restore mandatory country of origin labeling or MCOL for beef.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: The proposal directs the U.S.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Department of Ag and the U.S.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Trade Rep to develop a World Trade Organization compliant labeling system within one year.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: My question about this whole thing, and you've if you've been watching, you've seen me talk to cattlemen from various organizations, and my question is always the same.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: If the WTO kiboshed it back 10 or so odd years ago, what's going to keep them from doing the same thing here in 2026 or even in 2027?
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like they gave gave them a year to try and figure out the labeling system.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm I'm just concerned we go through all of this, we get it, we get it approved and passed and whatever, and then the uh World Trade Organization comes in with the uh with the kibosh.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have to wait and see how that uh all ends up here.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Here's something I want to ask Allison about.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: China's exports of sustainable aviation fuel have surged in 2026 as producers capitalize on growing overseas demand for lower carbon aviation fuels.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Chinese customs data show exports of bioaviation kerosene were valued at nearly$217 million in July, up about 16% from January.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: That, according to China data.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: My question is does uh does the US see a bump in demand outside of what China has already committed to?
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: If they're if they're selling sustainable aviation fuel and biofuels like gangbusters, maybe they're gonna need some more beans to do it.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: It feels like a good question.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: We'll uh we'll see what Allison's got on that.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, President Trump suggested looking to Belarus for potash imports, posting on Truth Social quote, the United States is working on a massive deal with respect to the purchase of potash from Belarus.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: The pricing would be for subs substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Very good news for our farmers and ranchers, and quote, that according to President Trump.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Belarus trade relations with Belarus have have been a little bit sketchy.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: They're a world leader in potash exports, but they're under the the iron fist of Alexander Lukashenko, their leader there, and there have been some human rights questions and some things like that.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: So uh it's interesting that we lean away from Canada.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: I get it, I guess.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how much our guest today is up on the whole Canada thing.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: They're cozying up to the EU.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of a trade spat going on there.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: I I might just ask for an opinion if if if not actual information.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll include that in the discussion later on today.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: We've got export inspections.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh both corn and soybeans looks like we're above the previous week and above year ago today.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Corn inspections came in just a shade under 2 million metric tons, with soybean inspections at 759,000 metric tons, wheat export inspections about a third what they were during the same week last year, and 100,000 metric tons below the previous week at 335,000 metric tons.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, let's move on to the tale of the ticker.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: It was a really fun day.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Great way to start off the markets on this Monday.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: The markets had a spring in their step across the board at the open today.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and beans both double digits higher within an hour of the opening bell this morning.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat futures trailed those numbers, still decently higher, though.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures were higher this morning.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Quickly came off early session highs as lean hog futures posted solid gains, and notably equities and bonds were higher as well this morning.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: Even Bitcoin was higher this morning.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: As we rounded into the lunch hour, corn and soybeans were still storming higher with Chicago wheat up double digits.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: Livestock futures were still higher as well, with an invigorated cattle complex working higher from a late morning dip, and lean hogs on session highs.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: As was the case early in the session, equities and bonds also in positive territory.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now let's let's look over to the settlements here.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've got December corn futures 15 and one half cents higher at 5.43.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: November beans gained 24 and 12 cents to 13.28.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: December Chicago wheat up 12.5 cents to 726 and three quarters.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: D C was up 10.5.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: Looks like at settlement 7.94 and 12.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the livestock, October feeder cattle up$6.75 today,$3.30.25.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: October fat cattle up$502.5 at$2.20.95.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: And December lean hogs up a buck twenty-five to close at$69.80.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: A quick word for our sponsor, a word of appreciation and thanks.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let me mention Plus 500.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: My squad and I trust Plus 500 T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of other handy features.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks to Plus 500.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, let me bring in Allison Thompson from the Money Farm up in Minnesota.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Allison, great to see you today.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Fantastic to have you here on the program.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: You and I have interacted in the past in a on a different program.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: We're uh we're sure glad to have you here on the Ag Squawk program this afternoon.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: For those of my viewers who don't know you, this is this is gonna be a good one, folks.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: I hope so.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: I got good things to talk about at least today.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: You betcha.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and as I said earlier, the the markets seem to like it when you're on the program.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: And uh so you uh you bring a little gravitas just built in with you right here on your first appearance with us.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'll take it as a compliment.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, as well.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: You should.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I would, you know, I would take full crappy.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's how we roll around here.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Let us get to know you just a little bit.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: You're up in Minnesota, not far from the North Dakota, North Dakota border.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: Tell us about yourself.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Here's a question I have for you.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I've ever asked you this.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: Do you do you have a background in farm?
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: How did you wind up how'd you wind up working in the market?
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, I grew up in a on a family farm in Minoman, Minnesota.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: So it's only about 20 miles east of Ada, where I'm at now.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: My dad farmed, we grew corn, soybeans, wheat, and now my husband actually farms with my dad.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: So we're working on transitioning and taking over the farm.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: But originally I did go to school for egg education and egg business.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I actually taught high school egg for one year up in Grafton, North Dakota, and that's where I met my husband.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um then I decided kids maybe weren't my specialty for high school for teaching the rest of my life.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought farmers would be better.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I decided to do farm business management.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_01: I did that for about five years, and then I moved over to working with the money farm in 2017, right before the trade war.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: So I got a lot of grief that I caused a lot of that.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: It was quite a learning curve to go through right off the bat.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: But I've been doing it ever since.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I bought the business in 2023, moved out of the Fargo area into small town Minnesota, and I absolutely love it.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: I love my job.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: I love what I'm doing, constantly changing, obviously, always a moving environment.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's been fun and a wild ride.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: And especially with us having the farm too, you know, I keep pretty close to the farm level.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I like to think that's what guys like about working with us here at the money farm.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: It certainly certainly does give you an advantage of someone who who maybe doesn't come from from a farming background or who isn't even, you know, who maybe farmed years ago because the markets ain't what they used to be, are they?
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: No, it changes.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: It changes sometimes on a daily or hourly basis.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, it's definitely changed a lot even since I started.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: And that's you know, you know, less than 10 years ago, but things are always changing.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: For sure, for sure.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there's there's lots to talk about today.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: I guess maybe let's just just speak generally about uh I want to go to corn and soybeans, and I know that you've got a lot of thoughts on on wheat as well.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: But man, right from the jump here, we had some serious gains in corn and soybeans today.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: Any idea what what was behind either one of those?
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: Or perhaps I feel like they must be tied together somehow, but maybe I'm mistaken on that.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: What got into the markets this morning on the corn and and or soybeans?
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and I I think you mentioned it too.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we're going into a China meeting week, and so I think there's just some buying that's happening there as well.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're buying into some of the rumors that we started to hear over the weekend about talks going well, potentially hearing some tariffs coming off, maybe seeing some agriculture buying outside of just soybeans, but obviously soybeans are the one everybody's watching because they've been in the market.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: So I think soybeans got a good pull from China headlines over the weekend and obviously hoping that that continues here this week.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: But I think we're gonna be very, very headline driven here until that meeting is over with and we get some news out of it.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think any headline or any rumor that's come about this week is definitely gonna move us.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: And we saw it move, you know, corn double digits, wheat got double digit gains today, and soybeans obviously were the star of the show, but we could easily see that get switched around too at some point this week if we start seeing some rumors that maybe talks aren't going to be going as well, or maybe we're not gonna see so much included or an extension.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: So I think those are all things that the market is watching here, but it was really, really impressive to see our grains and you know, our commodities really push higher today when we were getting some outside pressure.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, crude was off four dollars today, the dollar actually moved higher, but grains were sustained.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: So I think there's a little bit of obviously that demand coming in from China, giving us some good support.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: But I also think and you know, that we're starting to see some harvest stuff pop up here too, specifically with weather.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: You mentioned that you're in a kind of a wet area and obviously leading to possibly some early harvest delays, especially over the next week.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: And up here in my area, we're dry.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: So we're probably gonna be dealing with some more harvest, you know, progress here this week compared to you guys.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: But we don't make the big trade headlines up here, but we'll see how it all shakes out.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's it's between the the production and demand side, both kind of colliding here this week and giving us a good start.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Let me ask you about this because much was made about the uh China's commitment to purchase X amount of soybeans over X amount of time or whatever.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: And for the longest time, uh the the market kind of gave that whole thing the side eye.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll see if they live up to those commitments.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: I feel like the market is is pretty comfortable, at least with where we're at now on that continuum as as China continues to buy.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: When we talk about China meeting with the United States, and you mentioned the market looking for headlines, is is living up to prior agreements enough to keep a floor under soybeans, or is the market going to be disappointed if there isn't some big news about some you know some fresh agreement or something?
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: What is what does the market want from?
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, what does it want?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: The market wants more, and obviously, you know, if we're trading up like we are now, pushing towards the highs, who knows?
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: This week, even prior to the meeting, we could make new highs on just the idea, but we got to see the meeting live up to it.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, obviously the big talk is that 25 million metric tons of soybeans.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well, they're all already halfway there, so we're talking about maybe another 12 to 13, maybe getting purchased.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: So, could we see more than that?
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, if they're looking or change that number around, huge difference on what we're trading right now on a balance sheet perspective, if that were to change.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: The other thing I'm watching though, as well, is this$17 billion figure that's been thrown around for potential agriculture commodities.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: And so far, you know, according to data, we're probably about 3.9 into it.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of wiggle room here with them still having to buy some beans and things like that.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: But what else could they buy?
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I obviously corn and wheat came along for the ride today.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: It obviously we would be good to get some demand in there.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know, corn has a pretty good balance sheet right now.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, not a lot of wiggle room there either.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: So if we started seeing some purchases or some talk of some purchases happening, obviously would be good.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: And wheat of all three major grains really needs a demand story.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: So if we could all of a sudden get some actual demand coming in, it would be great.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we haven't really seen much the black seeds been the headline in wheat, but we really haven't seen our demand shift or see any more new buyers pop into the wheat market.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really kept wheat under pressure, more so compared to corn and beans.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: So we just really need some demand in that market.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that market might take off more compared to corn and soybeans if it did get the headlines.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm concerned about wheat price versus wheat demand, to be honest with you.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: It it feels priced a little too high to be sexy to to importers at all.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: There.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I also I don't know.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: I let me just start there.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'll ask you questions one at a time.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, go for it.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: We'll do that.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: My brain is just firing today as the markets go up, right?
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: I just absolutely lose it.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: But no, are are we priced okay?
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: Are people gonna buy wheat with a seven-handle?
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah, that's just it.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: We are we aren't competitively priced on the global scale.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, obviously there's there's issues with movement in the Black Sea and movement with Russia and Ukraine, but they're still built bidding out of their Baltic ports and they're bidding it cheap.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, some of that is gonna make up for some of the cost that's gonna be in freight and whatever.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: But we are also seeing some other buyers go to other destinations.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen them go into Argentina and Australia, and not necessarily coming to the US yet.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, they're cheaper supplies, so it's not surprising to see global buyers go there.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: But what will be interesting to see is if there is a quality need that arises, you know, and the US has good quality wheat.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: We have this vaccine, we know we can ship it if it's needed.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be interesting to see how it evolves.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it just really goes.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, this has been an ongoing thing for years now.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's you know, it's become an old hat almost for the wheat market.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so now I think wheat really needs to start seeing this demand shift take place and see some more exports out of the US to really get excited about it.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, in wheat, it's a little bit of a different story.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: You know, out of the three, it maybe looks a little bit more comfortable.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, going into next year, we should see a rebound in acres.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: We should hopefully see some better production results.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: And I think those things are also things that the market's still needing to price in here, too.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of moving pieces in wheat, that's only part of it, is what's going on overseas.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and that that overseas stuff there, I obviously the Russia-Ukraine thing, Ukraine being the breadbasket of Europe, big problems there.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: They're looking for all kinds of different ways, any way they can to move crops from there to there.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how much success they're gonna have doing that.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: It sounds like the smart money is is buying storage in Ukraine and in Russia, unfortunately.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: But alongside that, Europe, I mean, they've had wildfires, they've had record heat, they've had you know, and we've talked about the we've talked about the French and the drought and all this sort of stuff.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if those are big players enough in the wheat market or if they've had enough problems growing and you know, finishing wheat over in Europe that that maybe there's a bigger, a bigger supply hole globally further ahead on the calendar.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: Are there are there demand holes uh or supply holes, I guess, that are yet to show up in the wheat market?
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I I do believe that.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um the wheat in in the EU was hit really hard, but not only wheat, corn as well.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: But they have some restrictions on GMOs there as well.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat were fine for they'll import wheat all day long.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: Corn's a little bit more of a different story on that front, but I do think that that's something the USD has legged on making adjustments for in September.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: They bear they didn't move hardly anything on the EU side.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if they're waiting a little bit longer or not, but I do think that we could see some good import demand from them.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, already this summer, we saw Spain come in to the US market.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: So we could start seeing some.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's just, I think it's just gonna be a matter of time.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the balance sheet needs to cover that.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we've heard that maybe they're starting to look at Australia and getting some wheat from there too.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: But at the end of the day, you know, it depends on what their crop's gonna do too.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: So the world wheat is always shifting and always moving.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: And even in the Black Sea right now, they're they're gonna be going into their winter wheat planting, just like here.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: And we've been hearing that their domestic prices are pretty low in Russia and Ukraine.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: So there's really not a lot of incentive.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: So we've been actually hearing that they could have lower acres this next year just because of that, just not having incentive.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: And then what's the what's gonna happen to it?
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that's kind of what the the world of wheat's trying to figure out right now is there's plenty of supply out there.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's just where is it gonna move and who needs it the fastest, who's gonna pay for it.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that's that I think is what the the market's doing.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: But obviously on the global market, there's demand for wheat.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: There's obviously tenders that continue to go, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: They've all been all been active on the global wheat market.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that gives us a good floor, regardless if we're getting some of that demand or not.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let me ask you about this because the the talk about global trade oftentimes revolves around well, once we lose a market, let's say it's for corn exports, or once we lose a buyer for soybeans, that demand is just sort of viewed as lost.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think we could probably point to the Brazilian situation with that to some degree, other other countries.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: I I wonder how much of that might feed into this trouble that Russia and especially Ukraine are having moving wheat if they lose some demand because of this conflict and it's ongoing, and it sounds like no end in sight to me.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know, there are there are rumors, oh no, everything's gonna be great, it's gonna be fine, and then you know, something else blows up.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: Terrible deal.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it this could go on for a while.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess again, I'm looking for supply holes further down the road.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: If they lose some demand because of this conflict, is that demand just lost to them?
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: No, I don't believe so.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: In the world of in the world of wheat, every you know, every country wants their people fed, the world has to eat.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so I I don't think that people are going to sit on the sidelines and wait it out.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're gonna make sure that their people are happy and you know the demand is only going stronger.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: So if there is production hiccups, and we knew there was some here in the US this last year, and the EU is gonna have some.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: I I just think it's a matter of time before we realize it on the global balance sheet.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: Make it a little bit more local, and you can talk as locally or as widespread as you as you're able on this.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm completely out of touch with with wheat bases.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: What is what does the cash market look like in wheat right now?
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's pretty well, I'm I'm in spring wheat country on the Red River Valley side.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: So we dock a lot of spring wheat in our area.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, we had a really dry summer up here, but the spring wheat crop, surprisingly, was great.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: Guys are happy with yields, they were happy with protein and quality.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: It was actually a pretty good year, all considered.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: So, right now, actually during harvest, we did have some pretty decent basis opportunities.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: Right now, it's definitely widened out, and that's just because we're getting into soybeans and corn.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm assuming that we're typically gonna see some better basis as we get into December.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: Once corn and soybeans settle down, we can usually get some pretty good basis levels back.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: So if we start getting a rally here on the wheat side, I don't, I'm definitely gonna be pushing guys to be look looking at that basis and also starting to move some of the crop that went in the bins this year.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: For sure, for sure.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: Who who's who are the the local end users around there?
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: Do you who's who's buying corn and beans up there in that area?
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: Anyone?
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we do have some ethanol plants in the area, but for me specifically, they're about an hour away.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: And so a lot of guys do go to the ethanol plants.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: We also have some new crushed plants around here as well.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: North Dakota soybean processors, when we have the green bison, those have popped up.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: So we've seen some activity increase there over the last couple of years.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_01: But also just local elevators.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're we're known for supplies for exports on the West Coast.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's where a lot of our tomato historically has come from.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: So getting some of this demand back in both corn and soybeans is good for us.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_01: It might be a very interesting scenario here going forward through the winter.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_01: Even corn and soybean bases has gotten a bit better here ahead of harvest.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're trying to actively find supply because again, we had a really dry year, especially in my local area.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, it's really weird this year.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: I've made a few trips out towards western North Dakota this year.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: And it's very, very rare that you go west and it gets greener.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_01: So we we were extremely dry this year.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_01: So in our area specifically, I think I think the elevators are kind of and end users for that matter, know that they have to get the supplies here at harvest or they're probably gonna pay more for that same grain later in the year.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: Once those bin doors shut, they're gonna wait for an opportunity for it to get better.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we could see some interesting basis competition between end users here.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, okay, I'm gonna ask you one more question, and then I'm gonna ask you what what somebody might might need to do here.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: My question would be your your comfort level with national corn and soybean yield ratings.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: Can will you wade into those waters with me?
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we'll call, you know, a I'm hearing a I'm comfortable in uh high 170s, maybe nationally on the corn side.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_00: Beans just kind of seem to be hanging around the mid-50 bushels per acre, 55 or so.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: Is does that seem about right to you, or is there I I'm just gonna ask you.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: I won't put it in my my opinion.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: Is is there downside?
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: Have they got them right?
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: Have they got them right?
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: Do they ever get him right?
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: How about that, Davis?
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: Do they ever get it right?
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: You want to know how I really feel?
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_01: No, I I don't know.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: I, you know, they throw a dart at the wall every year, and you know, somehow it all works out in the end for them.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_01: But but but in my opinion, I I do it's very rare, very rare that you have such a huge yield in one crop and not in the other.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that we're seeing, you know, soybeans have this big crop, big production number, big yield number, and then corn has the opposite.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it seems it seems weird that those two aren't tied together more when we have an opposite year like this.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: But at the same time, I think it just happens to be where what weather was doing during their key production areas is why we're seeing such a difference this year.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: So, specifically around my area, honestly, I think a lot of the beans are gonna be okay.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: From what I've been talking with producers, they're happy if they're gonna get an APH or an average yield this year.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: Some spots are obviously a lot less than that.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: I've heard beans in the teens, I've heard beans even less than that.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, up here, we're not gonna be carrying a national average by any stretch of the word to help out for the soybean crop, I don't think.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: And even looking at the USD numbers too, you know, even on the corn side, we're banking a lot on Iowa alone.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: You know, every every other state, they move their average, average yields lower.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa was the only one who really had a gain in a standout record crop.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: And right now, I think that could be argued.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_01: You're getting a lot of rain here during harvest, you know, when we should be looking at harvest and drying down.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: We, you know, we fought dry weather, you know, for in some parts of the of Iowa.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: It was really quite a difference between what was on the east side and what was on the west side.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: So how it all equals out, you know, I don't know where it's gonna be.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm leaning towards more that 177 on the corn side.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that could move lower yet.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_01: We're seeing a lot of variability up here too.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: And like I said, it was dry, so it's really hard to gauge it on that.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking out my back door, but I know we've also been in the other spot where the eastern corn belt is and they've been extremely wet.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: So how it all shakes out in the end, I don't know.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: I'd like to, I think that it's probably gonna go lower and on the bean side, probably move a little bit lower too.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: I just thought the last USD report on the beans there, they moved it a tenth of a bushel.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: Leave it alone.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: Why'd you move it?
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta do something.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, come on.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: Just let us know the calculators are still working out there, you know.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm good with that, I guess.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: I know.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and I'm a I'm a Grundy County boy.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: I grew up in Grundy County, Iowa, you know, in the middle of a cornfield and soybean field and soybean production.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know, driving up here, I came up from from Kansas City, and I don't know what's going on up here in central Iowa.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_00: It and maybe my my clock is off, you know, my internal clock.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's the the 21st of September, and maybe I was expecting crops to be dried down more than they are, but it it feels like there's an awful wide variety in maturity.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_00: There are some beans that were you know just starting to yellow up, and some that were just starting to brown down, and some corn that looks like it's ready to go, and they're you know, over here there's there's some that half the field's been cut already.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: I I just don't know what to make of it.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder how much of an issue maturity is gonna be as we get into these fields.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: We could have more of a weather market during harvest this year than not.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think that's really what it's gonna come down to.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, stuff up here is really dry.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: We're we're going pretty hard.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of beans that have been taken off.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: Some guys are talking about getting into corn even before getting beans done.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's definitely different up here this year, too, for that matter.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so it's not just me.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: No, it's not just you.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, good, good, very good.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: I can get the psychology appointment this week.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's great.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's not just me.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's let's make it practical.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, you were on a panel panel with uh Tommy Griffith.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy he wanted me to say hello and how much fun he had had discussing these things with you.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: It was it was good, it was a good conversation.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Big Iron was a good show.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's talk about what to do about it because I see a run higher and it's raining here.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I when it's when it's raining in Iowa this time of year, I start to think about, well, it's gonna have to run through the dryer.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna, you know, and to me that just sounds like added expense in a year that's already expensive.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're already paying out the nose for diesel.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now we gotta pay for LP to or Nat gas to you know to dry it down before we take it to town or before we store it or before we do whatever.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: And so when I see a pop in in the uh futures markets like this, I almost feel like the guy ought to guy ought to do something here.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: Is it now the time?
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: Or you know, I guess make the case either way for us, would you?
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'll try.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: My my I'll tell you my case.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: How about that?
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, perfect.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think you know, today gave us a good bump, and I could see us pumping into this market ahead of the China news, what comes of it, and obviously just talking weather delays with harvest here this week.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: It wouldn't surprise me to see the market even push to some new highs, and that's what I have on my radar.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_01: Up here in my area, like I said, we've been really dry.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: So guys ended up to be a lot more sold than we initially expected as production estimates kind of went down here, getting into harvest.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: So guys have been really reluctant up here to make some additional sales.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_01: But if we do get a run to some new highs this week, I'm definitely gonna be doing something with it.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: And whether that's making an actual cash sale or getting some puts on the books, I think you got to be doing something when you get this type of move that's very headline driven.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, we went through the China meeting back in May, if you remember that.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: We really pumped into that meeting and grains were not even talked about, and we worked our way lower and made lows for the year at the end of June after that.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_01: So that's also fresh in my mind, not saying that we're gonna go and make new lows for the year.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily see that happening.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's good support under the market, but there is always that risk that the market can dump.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: And usually when it does turn, it goes further than you expect.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the one thing that I'm gonna be watching and doing with my clients this week.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_01: The other thing that I've obviously I've talked to a lot of producers about their harvest needs for fuel.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I've I'm not going too crazy with you know, booking a whole year here on these highs.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't go wouldn't go that crazy, but it doesn't hurt to secure your needs for fall.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: There's always the risk that they can go higher.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: Now, today we went lower again on some headlines that maybe we're we're moving some more again through the straight, but that's not a guarantee.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: So what I've been doing is using some crude options to hedge some fuel needs.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: And depending on what their needs are, we can it's a cross hedge.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's not gonna be perfect with diesel prices, but it gives you some protection or you know, at least keeps you in the market.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: So if you are in that case where, you know, you you bought some, you brought some fuel here and you you still want to be able to capitalize if prices go down, get some puts in place.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: And if you know you're gonna have to be making some more purchases, just make sure you're getting some calls on, too.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the kind of way I've been treating it.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, with the volatility and oil, it's crazy.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: But today it was good to see us differentiate.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like it's it's give or take on any given day of whether grains are gonna follow crude or if they're gonna follow outside markets, but it's good to see we can sustain some moves like we did today, despite what was going on there.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: Alison Thompson from the money farm.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_00: Before we get too far, I gotta ask you if if people are are digging what you're saying there, how do they get how do they get in touch with you?
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_01: You can give us a call and the phone number here.
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's still a North Dakota number, so forgive me, but it's 701-347-5985.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_01: You can also find us at the on the web at themoneyfarm.com, and you can contact us through there as well.com.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, very good.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I I appreciate you sharing your your thoughts with us on what what somebody ought to maybe do given our position here right now.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it just it rings through my head the the old adage, you know, don't what is it?
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: Don't give up a a nickel waiting on a dime kind of a thing.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_00: Because I think you're exactly right.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: If if this should break, and I think that there definitely is potential here that corners soybeans could break lower.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's harvest after all.
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_01: Boy, you gotta be careful pressure and the funds are sitting still at some big long positions, you know.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: So anything that were to spook them, you know, during harvest here, we still got South America that we're gonna be starting to watch here more closely as well.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, there's a lot of moving pieces as always.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_01: The headlines obviously get the attention, but there's lots of things moving behind the scenes too.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_01: So all those things into consideration.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: How spookable are those funds with those longs right now?
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_01: When they get to records like that, it's a little spookier because they can they can certainly dump positions pretty quick.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_01: But I'll be honest with you, this last week we did see them dump a considerable amount of contracts, 20,000 contracts and beans, and we still held$13 at the end of the week.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_01: That's impressive.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so it tells me that there is some good support underneath, but if something were to change the outlook here, China stops buying, they cancel some orders, things like that, it could be a much different picture.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, for sure.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's move on to something that I don't even know if you if you're watching or or thinking about, but excuse me.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_00: This Canada thing, it just gets weirder all the time.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_00: And now we've got you know, because they were and I get it, okay.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't they didn't like the 51st state joke, and I can appreciate you know them not really digging on that.
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I get it.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: And then you know, tensions sort of re-fired was uh two weeks ago, three weeks ago, something like that.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_00: The trade war.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're at a trade war again with them, and they're you know, we're we're sassing them and they're sassing right back.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: And now they're talking to the EU, right?
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: Which I think is weird.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: I have a hard time differentiating that if you didn't want to be the 51st state, which I think was a joke to begin with.
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, don't don't it was it was if you don't like that and yet you're willing to join the EU.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, it seems a bit backwards.
• 38:50
  SPEAKER_00: What do we do with all this?
• 38:50
  SPEAKER_00: What do we do?
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: I don't, I don't know.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: The the main thing, I guess I'm not I'm not making it too big of a deal at this point in my head.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's obviously bigger fish that we're frying right now than Canada, especially on the egg side, you know, and hopefully I'm right in thinking this.
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: That on the green side, I don't think they have as many cards to play.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that hopefully when we get into if we are gonna be make this thing bigger, I I don't think grains can play as much.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_01: They have a lot of feedlots up there.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: We do a lot of corn, we do a lot of trading with them.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_01: And so far what they're what they've been playing with hasn't been necessarily the big cards.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: And so, or those cards.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_01: So that makes me think we maybe still have some wiggle room here to figure something out.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully we're not gonna see it blow up, but yeah, it'll be interesting to see what shakes of it.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but we've we've gone through these trade trade debacles with both of our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, and it seems like it comes together towards the last minute, and hopefully we can figure out something this time.
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I feel like what you're saying here, and if I'm hearing you right, I do it does make me feel better, Alison.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate you walking me through this a little bit, but we you're you're viewing it as you use the word debacle more of more as a trade TIFF than a trade war.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_00: Does that sound right?
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, yeah.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, especially from the egg side.
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_01: Don't get me wrong, there's definitely products out there and industries that are hurt by it.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just looking at it specifically from my egg stand from the agriculture standpoint and production.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we haven't seen fertilizers get really tossed into this.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_01: We haven't seen corn, we haven't seen wheat and and canola.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_01: And those are big things that do cross the border up here a lot with them.
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_01: And we haven't seen those be affected yet.
• 40:43
  SPEAKER_01: So me, I think that they're they're playing with what they played with before.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: We're not seeing them add anything new.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I have a hard time believing that this is gonna turn into something bigger anytime soon.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, okay, very good.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_00: Is the is the Minnesota goodbye a thing?
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_00: Is that a real thing?
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_00: I I mentioned often because it goes on and on.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, okay.
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, good.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna call this phase one of the Minnesota goodbye.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're just gonna start moving toward the exit of the show here.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: But uh Well, you already asked me for my contact info, and here we are.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, see you later.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: I want to make sure.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: I want to make sure that that you get everything said that you feel like my viewers need to need to keep in mind here.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: Would you would you have any maybe closing thoughts before we get into the weather and some nonsense here and then I let you go?
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, I guess my words of wisdom is that we markets are providing a good opportunity here.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_01: 426, make sure you're doing something with it.
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, when you're looking at inputs for next year, too, very rare that we're gonna see those go down.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I know it's already on guys' minds.
• 41:47
  SPEAKER_01: So if you are locking in or looking at stuff for inputs next year, make sure you're also locking in some futures out there too.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_01: Those are pretty attractive prices and not a bad place to start.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well said, well said.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_00: Allison Thompson from the Money Farm, themoneyfarm.com is where you can get more.
• 42:05
  SPEAKER_00: You clearly aren't averse to backyard itis at all.
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you mentioned weather conditions generally, but if you look out that that window behind you there, what what's what's it look like at your window there?
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_00: What's your what's your temp?
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: What is it cloudy?
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_01: So I wouldn't look like too much of an angel on your show, but just angelic enough, Alison.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I know.
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_01: I try.
• 42:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually really nice.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's sunny up here, but we are getting cold.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: We were actually there were some frost advisories out in northern Minnesota, North Dakota last night, but we early this morning, but we never got to or too freezing.
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_01: But we were in the upper 30s this morning.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's coming along, but honestly, our crops are you know mature at this point.
• 42:51
  SPEAKER_01: They can freeze and they probably do us more good on evening things out than the other way at this point.
• 42:57
  SPEAKER_01: So I think guys would be happy if we got a good frost and we could really hit harvest even a little bit harder.
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, very good.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's talk about the National Weather Service.
• 43:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's rainy and I don't know, 56, 60 degrees maybe here in central Iowa.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: The National Weather Service is calling for multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain to impact portions of the Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic, which may lead to some flash flooding concerns, thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts possible this afternoon from parts of the southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.
• 43:31
  SPEAKER_00: I alternate, I say Appalachians and then I say Appalachians, because I'm not sure which one is actually correct.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_00: A multi-day heavy rain will pose a flash flood threat in New Mexico beginning Tuesday.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, another step toward the door here, Alison.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to uh I'd like to throw some items of mild interest at you.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think I can interest you mildly before I let you go?
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_01: Hit me.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's the it's the 21st of September in 1937.
• 44:00
  SPEAKER_00: The Hobbit by JRR Tolkien was first published.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_00: In 1970, Monday Night Football premiered on ABC.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever I put on one of these head mics, I usually have like this big broadcaster's microphone on my desk.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: I put one of these on, and I think of you know, Dandy Don and Howard Cosell.
• 44:18
  SPEAKER_00: I feel like I'm on Monday Night Football.
• 44:21
  SPEAKER_01: You look like it.
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you.
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you very much.
• 44:25
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, in uh 1950, this is a fun one.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's the birthday of American comedic actor and screenwriter Bill Murray.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think I've got a picture of Mr.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_00: Murray here.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_00: There he is, right there from uh one of my favorite Bill Murray movies.
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you can call it a Bill Murray movie, but he's in at the Life Aquatic with Dr.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_00: Steve Zisu.
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_00: Are you are you a Bill Murray fan at all?
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: I do.
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: I like uh What About Bob.
• 44:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's a great one.
• 44:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's a great one.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_00: Can you give us a quote?
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_00: Have you got a have you got a Bill Murray quote just off the top of your head?
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_00: Completely unfair question.
• 44:58
  SPEAKER_01: I sail.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_01: Ahoy.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_01: He's strapped to the mast, you know.
• 45:07
  SPEAKER_00: I just let the boat do the work.
• 45:09
  SPEAKER_00: That was my hilarious.
• 45:12
  SPEAKER_02: It's a good one.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_00: Allison, you've you've been very gracious with your time and with your your info there.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_00: Money farm themoneyfarm.com.
• 45:20
  SPEAKER_00: Allison Thompson.
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks so much for uh for being on X Walk with us this afternoon.
• 45:25
  SPEAKER_00: Come on again anytime when we need a bucket rally.
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_00: Come on.
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_01: If you want Marcus to go up double digits, give me a call.
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: We'll know who to call.
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_00: Allison Thompson from the Money Farm.
• 45:38
  SPEAKER_00: And uh one more word for our sponsors.
• 45:40
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks to Trade the News.
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_00: For a view behind the quotes, look to trade the news.
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is news you can use.
• 45:46
  SPEAKER_00: Usable news, use trade the news.
• 45:49
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, I'd love to direct you toward AgBull.com where you can take your marketing by the horns with AgBull Intel.
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbull.com or 855-737 Farm on your telephono.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching, everybody.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_00: Jed will be back first thing in the morning to start your Tuesday.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_00: And then I'll be back from Corn Country to get you squared away on the day's price action and the news.
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you tomorrow for another issue of Ag Squawk.