Latest / Bull Market Conversations with Fexingo: Rallies, Momentum, and Riding Market Strength / Palantir Is Quietly Becoming the New Bull Market Leader
Transcript
- Lucas: Palantir Technologies is up fourteen and a half percent over the past five days. That is more than double the NASDAQ's gain, almost five times the S&P 500's, and it has quietly put the stock back into the conversation as a genuine bull market leader. Luna: Quietly is the right word. Palantir tends to generate a lot of noise — political controversy, founder drama — but this move feels different. It's not a meme. Lucas: No, it's not. And I think the key is that Palantir's commercial business is finally becoming a real growth engine. For years, Wall Street valued it as a pure government-contracting play — lumpy revenue, opaque margins. But on their most recent earnings call, management disclosed that their U.S. commercial revenue grew forty percent year-over-year. Luna: Forty percent. That's a number that changes the narrative. And it's not just a handful of contracts, either — they said they're seeing adoption across regulated industries like healthcare and financial services. Lucas: Exactly. Their Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP, is the hook. It lets companies plug in their own data and get operational recommendations without needing a team of data scientists. That's what Shopify's been doing with its own AI tools, and Shopify is up fifteen percent in the same period. Luna: So the market is rewarding companies that can show a real product-market fit for AI, not just a PowerPoint slide. Palantir and Shopify both have that now. CrowdStrike, up ten percent, same story — its Charlotte AI module is driving attach rates. Lucas: Right. And this connects to a bigger pattern we've been tracking all month. The NASDAQ is now above twenty-six thousand, the S&P is at seventy-five eighty. But the leadership is narrowing into a small set of names that can credibly say 'AI is already contributing to our revenue'. Luna: Which is a healthy sign, actually. It means the rally is being driven by fundamentals, not just liquidity. The Fed funds rate is still at three point six four percent, and the market apparently doesn't care. Lucas: Well, the market cares about the direction. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman just warned against hiking rates even if inflation spikes. That's a dovish signal from a usually hawkish voice. The market reads that as 'rates are done going up.' And for high-multiple growth stocks like Palantir, that's oxygen. Luna: Palantir trades at about fourteen times forward sales. That's expensive by any historical measure, but not insane for a company growing commercial revenue at forty percent. Where does the ceiling come from? Lucas: That's the question. The bull case is that Palantir's government business provides a stable revenue floor — think multi-year contracts with the US Army and intelligence agencies — while commercial becomes the growth driver. If commercial can sustain even twenty-five percent growth, the multiple compresses quickly. Luna: But there's a bear case too. The stock has a huge retail following, and that can amplify both directions. Plus, the company still has a significant portion of revenue from a single customer — the US government — which introduces political risk. Lucas: Absolutely. And one thing I want to highlight: Palantir's stock structure gives founder Alex Karp supervoting control. That means the market is betting on his vision, not on shareholder democracy. That works in a bull market, but it adds a layer of risk most investors don't fully price. Luna: So you're saying this rally is real, but the entry point matters. If someone is looking at a stock that's already up fourteen percent in a week, they need to understand what's already priced in. Lucas: Exactly. And that's actually a good place to step back for a second. If today's conversation helped you think about how to evaluate a stock like Palantir — or even just gave you one solid angle to research further — then we're doing our job. And the way we keep doing this, ad-free, is through listener support. Luna: Yeah, it's a small gesture that makes a big difference. If you find value in these conversations, you can help keep them going. Lucas: So if today was actually useful to you, head over to buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. That's buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure, just a way to support the show if you want to. Luna: And now, back to the numbers. Lucas, you mentioned the NASDAQ at twenty-six thousand. But the Russell 2000 is also up one point seven percent in five days. Are small caps joining this party? Lucas: They are, but more cautiously. The Russell is at two thousand nine hundred nineteen, which is still below its 2021 peak. Small caps need lower rates to really take off, and they're not getting that yet. The message from the Fed is 'no hikes,' but also 'no cuts soon.' That keeps capital costs high for smaller companies. Luna: So the sweet spot right now is large-cap growth with a real AI story. Palantir, Shopify, CrowdStrike — they fit that mold. And they're all beneficiaries of the same trend: enterprises are finally spending on software again. Lucas: That's the macro backdrop I'd emphasize. Corporate IT budgets have been tight for eighteen months. Now, with the Fed on hold and the economy still growing at one point six percent real GDP, CFOs are starting to unlock spending. And they're prioritizing tools that show a clear return on investment. Luna: Which is exactly what AIP promises. Palantir's demo of AIP is famous — they show a supply chain manager asking the system 'find me the cheapest way to ship these parts in two days' and getting an answer instantly. That's the kind of concrete value that gets budget approval. Lucas: And it's not just Palantir. Datadog and Cloudflare are also up double digits over the past week, eleven and twelve percent respectively. They're selling infrastructure monitoring and security — the picks and shovels of the AI buildout. Datadog's CEO said on their last call that ai native customers are their fastest-growing segment. Luna: So the question becomes: is this a trade or an investment? If the macro stays benign and earnings continue to beat, these stocks could have further to run. But any hawkish surprise from the Fed could trigger a sharp rotation out of high-multiple names. Lucas: Right. And that's why I think Palantir is interesting as a case study. It has more idiosyncratic risk than Shopify or CrowdStrike because of its governance structure and government dependence. But it also has more upside if the commercial story proves durable. Luna: One last data point: ARKK, the Ark Innovation ETF, is up seven percent in five days. Cathie Wood's fund is heavy on Palantir, Tesla, and Roku. So the speculative money is coming back into the market, but it's flowing into names with at least some fundamental narrative. Lucas: That's a good summary. The market is rewarding conviction. If you can show revenue growth, margin expansion, and a credible AI strategy, investors are willing to pay up. Palantir checks those boxes, but the valuation leaves no room for error. That's the trade-off. Luna: So for listeners watching this rally, the key takeaway is not just 'buy Palantir.' It's 'understand why this company is rallying' — and use that framework to evaluate other names. Lucas: Exactly. And we'll keep tracking this leadership rotation. Next time, I want to look at the flip side: which sectors are getting left behind, and what that tells us about where the economy is headed. Luna: Sounds good. Until then, keep your eyes on the earnings reports, not just the stock charts.