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How Elon Musk Is Reinventing Tesla's Robotaxi Strategy · Elon Musk Podcast

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  Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
• 0:06
  Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
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  Walden. There's something new every day.
• 0:14
  The future of. Tesla is going to be
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  interesting. Elon Musk.
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  Plans to change Tesla's. Future by.
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  Pushing it toward artificial intelligence and robotics.
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  And that raises a. Question Can Tesla?
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  Really transform from a car company, a great car company,
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  into a leader in autonomous systems.
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  Now Tesla. Started 22 years ago with a
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  simple plan that didn't depend on breakthroughs and battery
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  technology the founders believed they could create.
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  EVs by. Combining proven components in
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  new ways, they relied on lithium ion.
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  Batteries similar to. Those used in laptops and built
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  battery packs from. Thousands of small cells.
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  Now, this approach allowed Tesla to succeed.
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  Where traditional automakers had failed with heavy and.
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  Inefficient lead acid. Batteries now Elon Musk now
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  wants to. Take Tesla.
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  In a different path, he no longer focuses primarily on
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  making EVs driven by people. Instead, he wants Tesla to
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  become a robotics company that builds driverless cars and
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  humanoid robots. He believes this move will help
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  Tesla stay. Valued like a technology company
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  rather than an automaker. Musk expects.
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  To launch public robo taxi services very soon on June. 22nd
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  with a small fleet in Austin, TX they set this.
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  Possible launch date of the 20. 2nd but Musk.
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  Recently warmed that they. May delay this.
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  Timeline if safety concerns arise and Tesla's early success
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  came from using software and engineering to make lithium ion
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  battery pack safe and reliable gave the company a strong lead
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  before competitors recognize the potential of these batteries
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  now. Musk hopes Tesla can use its.
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  Manufacturing expertise to integrate artificial
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  intelligence more so. Into the vehicles.
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  And unlike the company's earlier strategy of using existing parts
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  creatively, Tesla has spent years building its own AI
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  systems for self driving tech. Now Tesla's FSD.
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  System and autopilot features show how far the.
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  Company has come. However, Tesla admits that
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  these. Systems are not fully, truly
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  autonomous, and drivers remain legally responsible for their
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  vehicles. And Elon Musk argues that Tesla
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  holds an advantage over competitors.
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  Because its fleet. Provides valuable real world
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  data. The data helps the company
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  improve its AI systems. Faster than rivals?
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  And companies like Waymo and GM. Have also worked.
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  On driverless technology, but their efforts are kind of
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  limited. GM stopped its robo.
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  Taxi plans because of high costs.
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  And Waymo operates a modest fleet of around 1500 to 2000
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  vehicles. Number is similar to GM's failed
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  EV1 program from over 25 years ago, which helped inspire
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  Tesla's creation in the first place.
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  And now? Tesla's robust.
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  Taxis project. Depends heavily on turning its
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  production values. Into autonomous taxis.
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  Musk claims that every Tesla rolling off the line today is
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  capable of unsupervised self driving.
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  He shared footage of a Tesla Model Y driving without anyone
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  in the front seat during tests in Austin Now.
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  Despite these demonstrations. Musk remains.
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  Cautious, he said. Tesla's initial.
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  Launch will be small. Possibly with about. 10
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  robotaxis operating in the 1st. Week he expects to scale this up
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  to thousands. Of vehicles within months and
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  aims to have hundreds of thousands or even a million on
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  the road by the end of 2026 now. Musk's public statements about
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  Tesla safety priorities. Reflect the difficulties of
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  delivering. Autonomous vehicles at scale, he
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  said. The company is super paranoid.
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  About safety, Which? Means that the robotaxi launch
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  could face further delays. Tesla's competitors, including
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  Waymo and. Zooks.
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  Have already demonstrated cars on public roads without drivers
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  behind the wheel. With. 10s of thousands of rides
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  for Waymo and in some surveys people prefer an autonomous
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  Waymo to an Uber where some person is driving now.
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  Zooks and Waymo have already demonstrated cars on public
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  roads without drivers behind the wheel, but their technology
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  remains complex and far from widespread.
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  Even Waymo's limited fleet has not come close to the
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  commercial. Success of Google score business
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  but. Test The shift toward AI marks a
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  major change from its founding principles.
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  The company originally succeeded by rethinking how to combine.
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  The existing technologies. But now they're creating their
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  own technologies, they're creating their own AI and
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  they're relying on large scale deployment of self driving cars.
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  But now we haven't seen Tesla make self driving into a major
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  part of its business. Elon.
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  Musk's confidence in Tesla's. AI technology rests on the
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  company's production scale and data advantage, but challenges
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  and safety regulation and public acceptance remain.
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  Now, the future of Tesla. Now depends on whether.
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  Musk's AI vision can deliver real results.
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  Remember a few years ago when? Zuckerberg was.
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  Talking about the metaverse and then where is the metaverse?
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  We were never in the metaverse. All the. 3D headsets all the.
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  Virtual. Reality, that was.
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  Top of the line for a few years and now it's bottom of the
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  barrel. Nobody really uses it in a real
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  world application other than engineers and you know, it kind
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  of niche things. It's a fun thing to play around
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  with, but. Zuckerberg was talking.
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  About how everybody was going to have a headset and we're all
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  going to live and work in the metaverse and Apple made a
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  headset and. Elon Musk doesn't.
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  Want to be that he. Knows that his.
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  AI Vision can deliver. Real results, that's what he
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  believes The company's focus has moved.
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  From making. EVs accessible to.
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  Building a network of driverless cars.
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  All of their manufacturers have some sort of EV in the pipeline
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  if they don't already have some on the road, and this took them
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  a decade or two. To figure this out so.
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  If Elon keeps making these moves with Tesla and moving forward
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  with. Tesla.
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  They're also going to be 20 years behind by the time.
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  All of this happens so. Somebody like Ford or GM?
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  Who is? Barely making.
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  EVs at this. Point they don't have an AI
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  division. They don't have anything to
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  compete with Musk right now. As.
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  XAI, he has x.com or X if you want to call it that, and both
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  of them have an AI component and now all of that is being rolled.
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  Into Tesla. Tesla has the.
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  Data from all of the driving from other people.
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  They have some sensors they. Don't have Lidar, which Waymo
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  has and in. Tests as we've.
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  Seen if you look around on YouTube you'll find.
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  A Tesla versus. Lidar.
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  Just look that up and you can see for yourself how Tesla has
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  failed against. Lidar in numerous circumstances
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  and their. Videos of Tesla's.
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  Just running through. Dummies and mannequins on the
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  side of school buses. Things like that.
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  And it's, you know. Part of it is that some of the.
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  Sensors in Tesla don't match up to the way that Waymo's sensors
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  work, and that's. What Elon Musk is talking about
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  when he's talking about Tesla being cautious.
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  He wants them to be. Extremely cautious.
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  Because if. Anything happens right away.
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  With these Austin tests, that's why they're starting small.
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  He's saying something like a dozen.
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  Cars on the road, robo taxis in the first week.
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  Which is a. Totally.
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  Fine test set. But he wants to upgrade.
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  This to thousands of vehicles within.
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  Months so you. Don't just start off with. 10
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  operational robo taxis. In a week.
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  And then within months you get to.
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  Thousands of vehicles. Usually it would go from like 10
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  robo taxis in Austin to 20, 30-40 within months.
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  Plus there's also regulatory hurdles, so if you're good in.
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  Austin it doesn't. Mean you're going to be good in
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  Arkansas, so to speak, or you're not going to get robo taxis in
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  New York City. Thousands of robo taxis in New
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  York City, or. San Francisco, OR.
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  LA OR. Small cities like Buffalo, or.
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  Someplace like Orlando, you're not going to get.
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  Robo taxis there because there. Are different regulatory?
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  Hurdles per state and also per city.
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  So if he wants to have. Thousands of robo taxis.
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  In Austin that. Seems like it would be less of
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  a. Hurdle than trying.
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  To go to these different States and different cities so he also.
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  Wants to have hundreds of thousands or even 1,000,000 by
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  the end of next year. A million vehicles on the road.
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  Now, if he's talking about. Robotaxi capable vehicles.
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  Where a. Current vehicle could.
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  Be set up with software to. Become a robotaxi and the owner
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  of that vehicle. Which he stated in the past, he
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  stated. This for years that everybody
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  that. Owns a Tesla when it's.
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  When you're not driving it, you can loan it out and you can make
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  it into a robotaxi and you can make money while.
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  It just sits there. He said it's going to free up
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  so. Many Teslas to.
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  Do other things instead of sitting in a driveway or sitting
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  in a parking lot and wasting away.
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  Instead it could be on the road doing work for you, making you
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  money autonomously. But that.
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  Also is. Full of regulatory.
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  Hurdles so hundreds of. Thousands of vehicles or even
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  1,000,000 by the end of next year.
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  Sure, they. Might be capable.
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  But will the regulatory statutes allow them to drive on the
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  roads? That's.
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  To be seen and. We don't know what's going on.
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  Behind the scenes with Tesla. And.
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  In the cities. And States and towns throughout
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  the country. So it could take.
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  Maybe not months to do this. It could possibly take them
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  years. Waymo.
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  Is only in a. Few cities right now.
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  I think they're in five cities and it took them years to get
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  there and they have proven technology.
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  SpaceX or not SpaceX, Tesla has. Proven data from drivers, but
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  they don't have proven robotaxi rides.
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  Yet so. The fact that that hasn't
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  happened yet and the fact that Elon is saying.
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  Hundreds of. Thousands, possibly a million
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  vehicles on the road being robotaxis.
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  I don't think that's going to happen in one year.
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  Look, I'm. Call me skeptic.
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  I'm fine with that. I'm fine with that.
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  But Elon Musk has promised things in the.
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  Past that haven't happened at the scale.
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  That he wants them to happen Like when he was officially and
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  originally starting the Starship program he was saying somewhere
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  around the 20/24/2020. 6:00-ish Twenty. 28 launch to Mars and
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  from start with Starship and he was saying absolutely, we're
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  going to do this now. It looks like he's.
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  Still saying this in during his last talk he was saying that
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  they're going to make it there. Starship really hasn't made it
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  past Earth, hasn't made it to orbit yet, hasn't done a full
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  orbit yet. We're in 2025 and he has.
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  To launch this by 2026, he. Wants to launch it to Mars.
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  There's a possibility. But he doesn't have to.
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  Worry about the hurdles from the government, the red tape from
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  every city, every town, every municipality, every highway
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  department. Every state that.
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  He wants to get these robo taxis in the The scale that he wants
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  is unfathomable. Can he?
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  Do it. Yeah, maybe he'd have a couple
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  100, but. Hundreds of thousands of
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  vehicles on the road. That seems like a huge stretch.
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  If you're on a podcast platform that has comments, let me know
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  in the comments what you think about this.
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  I think it's. A great idea to have a million.
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  Vehicles that you can just. Hop into.
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  I wouldn't need a car anymore. I could just call a Tesla.
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  And have it pick me up and take me wherever I want to go.
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  Drive around for a little while. That would be great.
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  Maybe I go to the beach. Maybe I go downtown.
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  You know, same thing. With the Uber.
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  Also if you're. Interested in driving for Uber?
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  You can make a good amount of money.
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  We're driving for Uber if you're yeah, if you have a vehicle and
• 13:22
  you also just. Need need some.
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  Spare cash Like if you want some spare money to go out to dinner
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  to drive Uber on the. Weekends make a.
• 13:29
  Couple 100 bucks make. 50 bucks, whatever.
• 13:32
  Drive for a couple hours on the. Weekends make a.
• 13:34
  Make a little side scratch. There's a link in the
• 13:36
  description or the show notes and that'll get you into the
• 13:40
  program and you get a little kickback.
• 13:42
  I get a little bit of money for that too.
• 13:44
  Not a lot, but. It does help out the show.
• 13:46
  So if you can sign up, if you're thinking about it, I've done it
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  in the past and I'll tell you what, man, it's fun.
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  Get to be some really interesting people and all
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  you're doing is driving. It's like if you're if you just
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  want something. To to do to pass some time.
• 14:00
  And you don't don't really want to think driving Uber.
• 14:04
  Is definitely the way to. Go.
• 14:06
  It's really fun. So Elon is right.
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  On the precipice. Of doing something amazing if
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  this all works out. And his public statements about
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  Tesla's safety. Priorities show that.
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  There's difficulties of. Delivering Autonomous.
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  Vehicles at scale. He's been saying that.
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  He's super paranoid about safety.
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  Which means. That the Robo taxi launch could.
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  Face further delays. Because when they do these. 10
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  test vehicles. They're.
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  Going to gather some real world data and it's going to be in a
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  small part of Austin too. It's not going to be over the
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  whole city, not going to be on the highways.
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  It's going. To be on.
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  A loop of streets that they know that they have the data for
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  already so they're. Going to be.
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  Gathering data from these robo taxis and they're going to have
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  to scale. This.
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  To a point where. It's unheard of to scale this
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  fast. Can they scale this fast?
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  There's a possibility, but. There's always he has to work
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  with the towns and the cities and that's the part that's going
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  to hold him back. You know, Zooks way, MO.
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  They've already demonstrated cars on public roads without
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  drivers behind the wheel, but their technology is very
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  complex. We MO's limited fleet is, you
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  know they're making money, but they're also they're.
• 15:25
  Also. Not producing.
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  The types of rides. That will make.
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  The sorry the. Scale of rides that will make
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  them billions of dollars which they need to do it in order to
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  keep this program going. But the thing.
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  Is. Google owns Waymo.
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  Google does this. So Google has it as a sort of
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  like a side project. They want to make this work, but
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  the. Other thing is.
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  They're going to make sure that they use.
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  This data. From these rides.
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  To license this technology. To other car manufacturers in
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  the. Future SO.
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  Lidar, the radars, things like that, the data that they gather
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  from this, they're not going to keep to themselves.
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  They're going. To use it.
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  With manufacturers GM, Ford, etcetera and Audi I've heard
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  plans of maybe. Porsches influence.
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  There with Waymo and their technologies and.
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  We'll see what happens though, because Tesla is.
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  Just going to keep it in Tesla. They're going to keep all the
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  money to themselves. They're not going to license
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  anything as far as we know. Elon said he's open to it, but
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  he needs to. Have the lead first.
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  He has to have a crazy lead before.
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  He actually licenses. Anything to anybody else, but
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  you know, future of Tesla really does depend.
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  On. The AI vision that Musk is
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  portraying with these driverless cars.
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  Companies focus has. Moved from building electric.
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  Vehicles, which is amazing. And, you know, one of the one of
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  the biggest breakthroughs in technology in the last 20 years,
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  but now they're going to be building a network of driverless
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  cars. The success or the failure of
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  the strategy? Will shape.
• 17:17
  Tesla's future, but also it'll shape.
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  Robotics. It'll shape other companies that
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  build parts for robotics. It'll shape industries as a
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  whole, and also shape. Cities of the future.
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  Which will become manufacturing hubs like Austin is for robotics
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  and AI. Now they're proving the
• 17:39
  artificial intelligence can move beyond just the lab, beyond
• 17:45
  hackers, making AIA more viable product for everybody.
• 17:49
  Beyond. The lab tests.
• 17:51
  And make it into everyday life. At a scale.
• 17:54
  That no one else has ever achieved.
• 17:58
  Henry Ford built the automobile into a massive business.
• 18:03
  Elon Musk has built EVs. Into a massive business.
• 18:08
  And he's. Planning on building.
• 18:10
  Driverless cars. Into an even bigger business and
• 18:15
  I for one really excited about the future of driverless
• 18:19
  vehicles. Hey, thank you.
• 18:21
  So much for listening today, I really do appreciate your
• 18:24
  support. If you could take a second and
• 18:25
  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
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  Right. Now I greatly appreciate it.
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  It helps out the show tremendously and you'll.
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  Never miss an. Episode and each.
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  support the show. Even more.
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  Go to. Patreon dot.
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  And please take care of yourselves and each other, and
• 18:50
  I'll see you tomorrow.