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Buffalo Bills vs. Rams Preview: Advanced Metrics Check-In, Vegas Odds & League Leaders | The Morning Charge · The Morning Charge

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Good morning, Mafia. It's Wednesday, October 7th. This is the
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Morning Charge, your daily 10-minute or less Buffalo Bills news hit.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I'm Aaron Quinn, here with Colin Ritchie, bringing you everything
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: you need to know before you start your day. All right,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: as we turn the page from the New England loss,
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  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills head out west for a massive Week
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  Speaker 1: 5 matchup on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Let's start with the details of the broadcast. Kickoff is
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  Speaker 1: set for 8.15 p.m. Eastern next Monday, October 12th, live
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  Speaker 1: from SoFi Stadium. The primary ESPN broadcast featuring Joe Buck,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters, and Laura Rutledge. Locally, you can
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: tune in on 97 Rock with Chris Brown, Eric Wood,
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  Speaker 1: and Steve Tasker, or catch the national call on Westwood
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  Speaker 1: One with Ryan Raddick and Mike Golick. Now, looking at
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: the matchup series history, This marks the 16th overall meeting
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  Speaker 1: between the Buffalo and Los Angeles, with the Bills holding
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  Speaker 1: a 9-6 all-time advantage. Buffalo is 5-3 at home, 4-3
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  Speaker 1: on the road, and won three straight in the series
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  Speaker 1: from 2016 to 2022. The books opened with the Rams
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  Speaker 1: as narrow home favorites at minus 2.5, with some having
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  Speaker 1: it at minus 3. That would be the biggest underdog
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  Speaker 1: Josh Allen has been in a game in nearly five years,
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  Speaker 1: plus 3.5 at Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Bucs on December 12, 2021,
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  Speaker 1: per Ben Fox. The high total, between 53.5 and 54.5,
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  Speaker 1: reflects Vegas expecting a high-scoring shootout similar to the 44-42
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  Speaker 1: matchup back.
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  Speaker 2: In 2024. Offensive tackle Jedrick Wills was signed off of
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  Speaker 2: Buffalo's practice squad to the Arizona Cardinals' 53-man roster. With
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: the open spot, the Bills signed cornerback A.J. Woods, Woods
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: was a UDFA who signed with the Commanders following the
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  Speaker 2: 2024 NFL Draft. He's spent time on the practice squads
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  Speaker 2: of the Eagles, Broncos with current defensive coordinator Jim Leonard,
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  Speaker 2: and Falcons. The 5'11 corner out of Pitt had a 9.47
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  Speaker 2: relative athletic score with elite scores in the categories of
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  Speaker 2: speed and agility. The Bills hosted four DBs yesterday for workouts,
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  Speaker 2: one of which was Woods, who they signed to the
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  Speaker 2: practice squad. The other three they brought in were Miles Battle,
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  Speaker 2: Trey Hawkins, and Jalen Armour-Davis.
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  Speaker 1: Now that we are a month into the season and
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  Speaker 1: the sample size is starting to take shape, let's take
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  Speaker 1: a look at the advanced metrics of where the Bills
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  Speaker 1: currently sit. First, let's look at Joe Brady's offense, because
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  Speaker 1: despite the loss to New England, the advanced numbers prove
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  Speaker 1: this unit is playing at an elite level. Third in
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: total EPA, and third in EPA per play. That means
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: play in and play out, this offense is generating points
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  Speaker 1: and moving the needle at a top three rate in
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  Speaker 1: the entire NFL. Sixth in EPA per pass. Josh Allen
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and the passing game are operating efficiently, even with new
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  Speaker 1: weapons in the mix. Number one in average depth of target.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: This is a wild stat. The Bills rank first in
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the NFL at how far downfield they are throwing the football.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: They aren't just living on short checkdowns this year. They're
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  Speaker 1: pushing the ball downfield more than anyone. Some areas to
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: clean up. The main things holding this offense back right
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: now are turnovers, where they rank 25th with 7, and
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  Speaker 1: pressure allowed, where they rank 20th with 41.2%. But in
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  Speaker 1: terms of pure efficiency, this is a top 5 offense
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  Speaker 1: in football. Now, let's flip it over to Jim Leonard's defense,
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  Speaker 1: and this is where the advanced metrics confirm exactly what
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  Speaker 1: your eyes are telling you on Sunday. 29th in total EPA,
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  Speaker 1: and 29th in EPA per play. The defense is giving
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  Speaker 1: up expected points at a bottom 4 rate in the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: entire NFL. 30th in defensive success rate, 48.2%. This is
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: a big one. Almost 50% of opposing offenses plays against
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  Speaker 1: Buffalo are considered successful based on down and distance. Teams
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  Speaker 1: are staying on schedule consistently against the Bills defense. 26th
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  Speaker 1: in EPA per pass and 27th in EPA per rush.
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  Speaker 1: The Bills are just bleeding efficiency in both the air
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  Speaker 1: and ground right now. So what's working for the defense
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  Speaker 1: right now? They're fifth in pressure rate. The front four
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  Speaker 1: is actually generating elite heat on quarterbacks. and they're fifth
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  Speaker 1: in stuff rate. They're blowing up runs behind or at
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  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage a quarter of the time. When
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the defense doesn't get a quick win or a splash play,
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  Speaker 1: the back-end coverage, which is 26 in EPA per pass,
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  Speaker 1: is letting teams convert and drive down the field. The
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  Speaker 1: bottom line, the Sumer Sports data is clear. Joe Brady's
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  Speaker 1: offense is doing the heavy lifting at a top-three level,
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  Speaker 1: but Jim Leonard's defense has to find a way to
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  Speaker 1: fix the bottom-three efficiency if this team really wants to contend.
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  Speaker 2: Stat of the day. The Bills hold a plus 319
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  Speaker 2: point differential in games against NFC opponents since 2020, which
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  Speaker 2: is the highest mark by any AFC teams. This is
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: of note because the Bills will play an NFC team
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  Speaker 2: on Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams. Bills stat check-in.
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  Speaker 2: Josh Allen currently ranks 9th in the NFL with 1,039
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  Speaker 2: passing yards. Allen is tied with Derrick Henry for the
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  Speaker 2: most rushing touchdowns in the NFL right now, with seven.
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  Speaker 2: He also leads all players with 13 total touchdowns through
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  Speaker 2: four games. James Cook is currently third with 421 rushing yards,
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  Speaker 2: trailing only Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker. Despite a quiet
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: outing against New England, Dalton Kincaid still leads all tight
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  Speaker 2: ends in receiving yards with 270. That mark also puts
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  Speaker 2: him 13th in the league among all positions when it
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: comes to receiving yards. He didn't record a sack last Sunday,
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  Speaker 2: but Greg Rousseau still leads all players with six sacks
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: to open the season. Around the NFL In the AFC,
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  Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs are unfortunately the only remaining undefeated team.
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  Speaker 2: The Bills are one of five 3-1 teams, along with
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  Speaker 2: the Jaguars, Ravens, Browns, and Raiders. Buffalo has a half-game
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  Speaker 2: lead on the 2-2 Patriots for the AFC East title.
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  Speaker 2: while the 1-3 Jets and 0-4 Dolphins trail significantly in
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  Speaker 2: the divisional race. Tonight, join Greg Thompson and Aaron Quinn
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: on the Cover 1 Buffalo podcast as they preview the
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  Speaker 2: Bills' Week 5 matchup against the Rams. Tune in live
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  Speaker 2: on YouTube at 9.30pm.
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  Speaker 1: That's going to do it for us today on The
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Morning Charge. Do us a quick favor, hit that subscribe button,
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  Speaker 1: I'm Aaron Quinn. Go Bills!