Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Senate Midterms Info You NEED to Maximize Your Election Investment Value!

Transcript

The Senate Midterms Info You NEED to Maximize Your Election Investment Value! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  If you haven't already,
• 0:03
  be sure to download and subscribe to the Predictable podcast.
• 0:06
  You can get that wherever you get your podcasts.
• 0:08
  It's lots of fun,
• 0:09
  all the audio
• 0:11
  and none of the looking at me,
• 0:12
  which is great for many,
• 0:14
  many people.
• 0:15
  Um,
• 0:15
  my official,
• 0:16
  uh,
• 0:16
  kind of like Senate gut check today.
• 0:19
  We're going to look at it,
• 0:20
  at the Senate,
• 0:21
  at every single race,
• 0:22
  and put it in a column to try to see where we think it stands today.
• 0:27
  We'll be updating this throughout.
• 0:28
  The election season,
• 0:29
  but it's a great tool and a great idea
• 0:31
  to just be able to
• 0:33
  kind of get your mindset
• 0:34
  in the right place
• 0:35
  if you're looking at this for control of the Senate or if you're looking at it for
• 0:38
  prediction market profits.
• 0:40
  It's something you should do regardless.
• 0:42
  I'd love to hear your feedback on mine coming up.
• 0:44
  We have Dan Andros.
• 0:44
  He's gonna give me some feedback on it
• 0:46
  as well as help with our candidate countdown today
• 0:49
  and so much more.
• 0:50
  Make sure to join us at predictableshow.com
• 0:53
  or on YouTube,
• 0:54
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:12
  We're gonna get you my Senate gut check here in just a couple of seconds.
• 1:15
  Couple of things to just remind you about before we do it.
• 1:18
  Uh,
• 1:18
  there is an update,
• 1:19
  uh,
• 1:19
  for the PMC,
• 1:21
  the predictable
• 1:22
  midterm consensus.
• 1:24
  That's our election model.
• 1:25
  We take all the data,
• 1:26
  none of my opinion on this one.
• 1:28
  All the data,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:29
  from all the experts,
• 1:30
  all the polling averages,
• 1:32
  uh,
• 1:32
  fundamentals,
• 1:33
  fundraising,
• 1:34
  all those things,
• 1:35
  everything basically except for
• 1:37
  my opinion
• 1:38
  and prediction markets.
• 1:39
  And we take all that data and we put it in one place
• 1:41
  for you so you can get a good sense of the numbers,
• 1:43
  you can get the house and the.
• 1:44
  Senate for free.
• 1:45
  Anyone can go there at predictableshow.com and then
• 1:48
  behind the paywall we have every single Senate race
• 1:50
  if you wanna look at those.
• 1:51
  And another thing that we do because we're a prediction market show
• 1:54
  is we give you the gaps between what the experts are saying,
• 1:57
  what the,
• 1:57
  the actual data is saying,
• 1:59
  and what the markets believe.
• 2:01
  And oftentimes there is,
• 2:03
  in fact,
• 2:03
  there's a brand new state,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:04
  today.
• 2:05
  That came into the biggest
• 2:07
  gap between the market sentiment
• 2:09
  and what the experts are saying,
• 2:11
  and we're talking about a double digit gap,
• 2:13
  so there's gotta be an opportunity there somewhere,
• 2:15
  uh,
• 2:15
  you can find it
• 2:16
  predictableshow.com.
• 2:18
  Also there tomorrow will be Stu's picks updated.
• 2:21
  We do this every Friday.
• 2:23
  It is basically,
• 2:24
  uh,
• 2:25
  every single
• 2:26
  prediction market position that I hold in my portfolio,
• 2:30
  we put them all out there
• 2:31
  for everybody to see,
• 2:33
  well,
• 2:33
  at least the premium subscribers to see,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:35
  and,
• 2:36
  uh,
• 2:36
  because they're nicer,
• 2:37
  they don't make fun of me as much.
• 2:38
  No,
• 2:39
  they're,
• 2:39
  they're,
• 2:39
  they can be mean too.
• 2:40
  Uh,
• 2:41
  we put them out there
• 2:42
  and we want everyone to be able to see every single thing that I have.
• 2:45
  So if you're looking in,
• 2:46
  it's not just elections,
• 2:47
  it's culture,
• 2:48
  it's sports,
• 2:48
  it's music,
• 2:49
  it's everything.
• 2:50
  Uh,
• 2:51
  there's tons of stuff out there for you.
• 2:53
  Check it out,
• 2:53
  predictableshow.com.
• 2:55
  Now we are available,
• 2:56
  we're very excited to say
• 2:58
  on Blaze TV as well.
• 3:00
  Uh,
• 3:00
  that was coming soon until I heard it wasn't
• 3:02
  coming soon anymore and it was already there.
• 3:04
  So,
• 3:04
  predictable was to watch now on Blaze TV for Blaze TV subscriber.
• 3:08
  Congratulations,
• 3:09
  great product.
• 3:10
  We love
• 3:10
  Blaze TV.
• 3:12
  Of course I have another show there called Stu and Dave.
• 3:13
  Do America,
• 3:14
  you get access to that as well.
• 3:16
  So both shows on Blaze TV and uh of course if you're watching on maybe DirecTV
• 3:21
  you can get it there.
• 3:21
  First the firsttv.com/watch
• 3:24
  DirecTV Channel 347.
• 3:27
  We are there as well.
• 3:28
  We're everywhere.
• 3:29
  We are everywhere.
• 3:30
  Over 25 million homes.
• 3:31
  The first prediction market show ever on DirecTV or any of these things,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:35
  in over 25 million homes plus streaming everywhere.
• 3:37
  Uh,
• 3:38
  if you have any questions,
• 3:38
  any comments,
• 3:39
  anything you're thinking about,
• 3:40
  uh,
• 3:40
  anything in the markets that you,
• 3:42
  you find is kind of weird and you wanna give it to me,
• 3:45
  questions
• 3:45
  at predictableshow.com.
• 3:47
  OK,
• 3:48
  enough house cleaning.
• 3:49
  It is time to get into election time.
• 3:50
  We are 47 days away
• 3:53
  from the election right now,
• 3:55
  and that might seem like still a far
• 3:57
  long distance,
• 3:59
  but I got news for you.
• 4:00
  This is,
• 4:01
  this is,
• 4:02
  I'm going to say this and you're going to say,
• 4:03
  what?
• 4:04
  No,
• 4:04
  that can't be true.
• 4:05
  It is true.
• 4:06
  Early voting starts.
• 4:08
  Tomorrow
• 4:10
  Tomorrow,
• 4:11
  yes,
• 4:12
  early voting starts tomorrow,
• 4:14
  or as,
• 4:15
  as we've eloquently put it on this graphic,
• 4:16
  one day
• 4:18
  until the first round
• 4:19
  of early voting.
• 4:20
  Um,
• 4:21
  look,
• 4:22
  tomorrow,
• 4:23
  like literally tomorrow,
• 4:24
  it's happening September 18th,
• 4:26
  Minnesota,
• 4:27
  South Dakota,
• 4:27
  and Virginia
• 4:28
  kicks us all off,
• 4:29
  and then Vermont happens on Saturday,
• 4:31
  and then we get into a bunch of other states
• 4:33
  after that.
• 4:34
  So,
• 4:34
  what does the Senate actually look like?
• 4:36
  Let's get into it because this is kind of,
• 4:38
  I think,
• 4:38
  the main attraction,
• 4:39
  isn't it?
• 4:40
  Looking at the Senate,
• 4:41
  who's going to control the Senate,
• 4:42
  it's crucial.
• 4:43
  I mean,
• 4:44
  uh,
• 4:44
  you know,
• 4:44
  the Supreme Court
• 4:45
  is the biggest highlight when you think about that.
• 4:48
  The House is obviously vitally important as well.
• 4:51
  It feels to,
• 4:52
  I think,
• 4:52
  a lot of people,
• 4:53
  including me,
• 4:53
  that the Democrats are probably going to win the House.
• 4:55
  I would be surprised if the Republicans
• 4:57
  can win.
• 4:58
  It's not impossible,
• 4:59
  but I would be surprised.
• 5:00
  Uh,
• 5:01
  Republicans are now
• 5:02
  reeling on the midterm map as deep red areas are coming into play.
• 5:06
  The party is
• 5:07
  putting up a costly defense of states
• 5:09
  and districts
• 5:10
  that President Trump won easily in 2024
• 5:13
  and in places like Georgia,
• 5:14
  strategists wonder if it's too late.
• 5:16
  That's the headline from The New York Times,
• 5:17
  and that is,
• 5:18
  I would say,
• 5:19
  the not just the,
• 5:21
  the,
• 5:21
  the,
• 5:21
  the vibe of the times.
• 5:23
  The vibe also of the data
• 5:26
  that goes into the prediction,
• 5:27
  uh,
• 5:27
  predictable market,
• 5:28
  um,
• 5:29
  predictable midterm consensus.
• 5:30
  I say market consensus every time in my head.
• 5:32
  Predictable midterm
• 5:33
  consensus,
• 5:34
  the PMC,
• 5:35
  I should just say that.
• 5:36
  Uh,
• 5:36
  that's up at predictableShow.com.
• 5:38
  And it's also the,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:39
  the vibe of the markets,
• 5:40
  right?
• 5:41
  This is what people think is going to happen.
• 5:43
  That doesn't mean it's a foregone conclusion.
• 5:45
  And there's plenty of races that are highly,
• 5:47
  highly competitive,
• 5:48
  but this is difficult turf,
• 5:50
  uh,
• 5:50
  for Republicans and conservatives.
• 5:52
  So,
• 5:53
  let me look at all the races and we'll show you where we stand and,
• 5:55
  and why this looks this way,
• 5:57
  because what you're seeing now is movement toward.
• 6:00
  The Democrats in the Senate,
• 6:01
  these races,
• 6:02
  as the Times said,
• 6:04
  some of these red races getting into play.
• 6:06
  And so I decided to do a gut check.
• 6:09
  I've been doing this for
• 6:10
  years and years and years and years
• 6:11
  on Studos America.
• 6:12
  We did it,
• 6:13
  I think,
• 6:13
  every single year on Studos America whenever there was an election,
• 6:16
  um,
• 6:17
  going on.
• 6:18
  Uh,
• 6:18
  we did it on the Glenn Beck program as well.
• 6:21
  Um,
• 6:21
  and what we'll do is we put up all these board,
• 6:24
  we have a bunch of columns on the board,
• 6:25
  um,
• 6:26
  solid.
• 6:27
  Let's show the,
• 6:27
  let's show the original board here.
• 6:28
  This is what it looks like.
• 6:29
  Uh,
• 6:30
  you have,
• 6:30
  uh,
• 6:31
  Democrats and Republicans,
• 6:32
  and then you have a
• 6:33
  column for solid Democrat seats,
• 6:35
  likely Democrat seats,
• 6:36
  and lean Democrat seats,
• 6:38
  uh,
• 6:38
  a little in the middle for toss-ups.
• 6:40
  I try to keep as many out of the toss-up category as possible.
• 6:43
  Then you have lean Republican,
• 6:44
  likely Republican,
• 6:45
  solid Republican.
• 6:46
  We'll try to solid Republican,
• 6:47
  you know,
• 6:47
  look.
• 6:48
  I,
• 6:48
  I don't think I've ever missed a state that I put in the solid column.
• 6:52
  Uh,
• 6:52
  now,
• 6:52
  sometimes they move out of there,
• 6:53
  but when they're in the solid column at the end,
• 6:55
  I'm,
• 6:55
  you just never basically miss.
• 6:57
  I don't remember missing a likely either.
• 6:59
  It's possible.
• 7:00
  The lean states are kind of in that,
• 7:02
  uh,
• 7:02
  area where you can get a.
• 7:04
  Uh,
• 7:04
  and of course toss-ups could go
• 7:06
  basically either way by definition.
• 7:08
  So one of the differences between the House and the Senate,
• 7:10
  and the reason why the House is so much more on vibes
• 7:12
  is because there is a starting
• 7:14
  score.
• 7:15
  There's a score on the scoreboard before we even begin.
• 7:19
  And,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:20
  when that happens,
• 7:21
  it's all about how the map sets up for each side,
• 7:24
  so.
• 7:25
  The Senate,
• 7:25
  because of these six-year terms,
• 7:27
  has a bunch of seats that are locked.
• 7:29
  They are seats that can't
• 7:31
  change because the people are already in office
• 7:33
  and they're not up for election here.
• 7:34
  So we have a starting score before we even begin.
• 7:37
  And let's show you what that looks like.
• 7:38
  Here's what the board looks like.
• 7:39
  Uh,
• 7:40
  34 locked Democratic seats.
• 7:42
  The lowest the Democrats could possibly have,
• 7:45
  even if they lost every single election in November,
• 7:47
  is 34,
• 7:48
  34 Democratic seats.
• 7:50
  Republicans have a number here as well.
• 7:52
  Uh,
• 7:52
  they have,
• 7:53
  uh,
• 7:54
  31.
• 7:55
  So it's 34,
• 7:56
  31 to start.
• 7:57
  Democrats with a slight lead,
• 7:59
  uh,
• 8:00
  before we get going.
• 8:01
  But there are of course a lot of states out there
• 8:04
  to deal with.
• 8:05
  I believe there's 35
• 8:06
  total states,
• 8:07
  let's go through,
• 8:08
  let's say
• 8:09
  all of them.
• 8:10
  We start with the column here,
• 8:11
  solid Democrat.
• 8:13
  A bunch of states there,
• 8:14
  in fact,
• 8:14
  9 of them,
• 8:15
  9
• 8:16
  solid Democratic seats.
• 8:17
  All of these would be
• 8:18
  very,
• 8:18
  very surprising if they went
• 8:20
  the opposite way.
• 8:21
  We've got Colorado,
• 8:22
  which is John Hickenlooper,
• 8:24
  uh,
• 8:24
  he's heavily favored there.
• 8:26
  That was a state that,
• 8:27
  you know,
• 8:27
  used to kind of come up as a little bit purple,
• 8:29
  but really is now leaning blue.
• 8:31
  Delaware,
• 8:32
  uh,
• 8:32
  Chris Coons,
• 8:33
  he's the guy that eventually,
• 8:34
  uh,
• 8:34
  initially,
• 8:35
  um,
• 8:36
  replaced Joe Biden when he went to become vice president.
• 8:38
  Gonna have no problem there.
• 8:40
  Illinois,
• 8:40
  obviously very blue state as well.
• 8:42
  Stratton will win there,
• 8:43
  uh,
• 8:43
  almost certainly.
• 8:45
  Uh,
• 8:45
  in Massachusetts,
• 8:46
  uh,
• 8:46
  Markey
• 8:47
  is the heavy,
• 8:47
  heavy,
• 8:48
  heavy favorite after just winning his primary,
• 8:50
  uh,
• 8:51
  not that long ago.
• 8:52
  Uh,
• 8:52
  Cory Booker,
• 8:53
  still a senator,
• 8:55
  still winning easily in New Jersey.
• 8:57
  There does not seem to be any reason to believe that will change here,
• 9:00
  even though we have seen
• 9:02
  some races in New Jersey recently,
• 9:04
  statewide races,
• 9:04
  be close.
• 9:05
  This is not the environment where Republicans are likely to win in New Jersey,
• 9:09
  even if it wasn't Cory Booker.
• 9:11
  Um,
• 9:11
  New Jersey,
• 9:12
  and this is similar
• 9:13
  in
• 9:15
  Republican states as well.
• 9:16
  A lot of times what you'll see is more,
• 9:18
  a more partisan vote.
• 9:20
  In the Senate
• 9:21
  with the Senate candidate
• 9:23
  than you will see with the gubernatorial candidate.
• 9:26
  Governors,
• 9:27
  that's kind of your place for the upset in a,
• 9:29
  in a bright blue state or a bright red state.
• 9:32
  You can get in there,
• 9:32
  you get your candidate,
• 9:33
  you get a good candidate,
• 9:34
  you get a weak governor at home.
• 9:36
  There's at least a chance for you to take out somebody from the opposite party.
• 9:39
  Senators,
• 9:39
  a lot harder.
• 9:40
  It's really,
• 9:41
  really partisan,
• 9:42
  uh,
• 9:42
  really,
• 9:43
  really,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:43
  polarized,
• 9:44
  and because of the impact of those people
• 9:47
  on the national stage.
• 9:49
  People tend to vote more,
• 9:51
  uh,
• 9:51
  with their parties and don't really leave their states nearly as often.
• 9:54
  Uh,
• 9:55
  so that's that first row.
• 9:56
  Next row,
• 9:56
  New Mexico,
• 9:57
  kind of the same thing,
• 9:58
  uh,
• 9:58
  you know,
• 9:58
  New Mexico was a state if you go back to,
• 10:01
  I think it was the 2000 election.
• 10:02
  I could be wrong on this,
• 10:04
  it's either
• 10:04
  the second closest or the closest state.
• 10:06
  You might say,
• 10:06
  well,
• 10:06
  closest state was,
• 10:08
  uh,
• 10:08
  of course,
• 10:08
  Florida.
• 10:09
  Well,
• 10:10
  actually,
• 10:11
  and I can't remember exactly.
• 10:12
  I know percentage wise the closest state was Florida,
• 10:15
  but when it came to actual raw votes,
• 10:16
  New Mexico was really,
• 10:17
  really close.
• 10:18
  I'd have to look this back up,
• 10:19
  but I feel like maybe New Mexico was even
• 10:20
  closer when it came to actual number of votes,
• 10:23
  uh,
• 10:23
  even though the other one was like 500,
• 10:25
  it was very,
• 10:25
  very close,
• 10:25
  I think.
• 10:26
  It was 2000 that year.
• 10:27
  Uh,
• 10:27
  Oregon is in this race at all as well with,
• 10:30
  uh,
• 10:30
  uh,
• 10:31
  Merkley.
• 10:32
  Uh,
• 10:32
  you've got Rhode Island and Reed and Virginia and Warner,
• 10:36
  kind of classic senators that always seem to win
• 10:38
  in very blue states with the exception of Virginia,
• 10:40
  which you'd think would be more competitive but just isn't.
• 10:43
  Uh,
• 10:44
  it does not seem to be,
• 10:45
  uh,
• 10:45
  Republicans aren't really even
• 10:47
  putting money into that state.
• 10:48
  So that's solid 9 that gets you to about,
• 10:50
  you know,
• 10:50
  43 Democrats
• 10:52
  that you pretty much can consider
• 10:54
  locked too close to locked,
• 10:56
  OK.
• 10:56
  Uh,
• 10:56
  solid
• 10:57
  Democrats,
• 10:57
  9 seats.
• 10:58
  Now let's go to the Republican side on the solid,
• 11:01
  uh,
• 11:01
  column,
• 11:02
  and this is,
• 11:02
  uh,
• 11:03
  13
• 11:05
  solid Republican
• 11:06
  seats.
• 11:07
  Uh,
• 11:08
  let's go through them here because this makes it a pretty close Senate race.
• 11:11
  If you're just looking at locked and solids here,
• 11:14
  you're gonna be at 44,
• 11:15
  43,
• 11:16
  right?
• 11:16
  So we're,
• 11:17
  we're at a very,
• 11:17
  very even race,
• 11:18
  but the Republicans do make up
• 11:19
  that little bit of a,
• 11:20
  a deficit that they had
• 11:22
  as we started.
• 11:23
  Um,
• 11:23
  we'll start with,
• 11:24
  uh,
• 11:24
  Alabama and more expected to win there.
• 11:27
  Arkansas Cotton,
• 11:28
  I talked to him as one of the candidates of the day.
• 11:30
  There is some polling that shows that close.
• 11:32
  Uh,
• 11:32
  if,
• 11:33
  if that was to continually be repeated by
• 11:36
  Polls that were not coming out of the campaign,
• 11:38
  I might move that one
• 11:39
  to likely.
• 11:40
  That's vulnerable potentially to move to likely,
• 11:42
  but I do still think
• 11:43
  Cotton will win there.
• 11:44
  Florida,
• 11:45
  of course,
• 11:45
  is Ashley Moody.
• 11:46
  I think she will win there again.
• 11:48
  Florida used to be that kind of quintessential swing state,
• 11:51
  really not anymore,
• 11:53
  especially in the Senate.
• 11:54
  I don't expect that to happen.
• 11:56
  Idaho,
• 11:56
  uh,
• 11:56
  Risch will be fine there,
• 11:58
  uh,
• 11:59
  bar in Kentucky,
• 12:00
  uh,
• 12:00
  Letlow in,
• 12:01
  uh,
• 12:02
  in,
• 12:02
  uh,
• 12:03
  Louisiana,
• 12:04
  Mississippi is Hyde Smith.
• 12:05
  There's some,
• 12:05
  again,
• 12:06
  another,
• 12:06
  that's one of my,
• 12:07
  I actually saw that's one of my bigger positions that I have
• 12:10
  is in that Mississippi race,
• 12:12
  uh,
• 12:12
  because there's a little bit more value than I would expect.
• 12:15
  Um,
• 12:15
  one of the reasons why we look at these races,
• 12:17
  you might say,
• 12:17
  well,
• 12:17
  who cares?
• 12:18
  Why are you spending time on the solid races?
• 12:20
  Well,
• 12:20
  if you can find
• 12:21
  Someone who,
• 12:23
  when I say solid,
• 12:23
  I,
• 12:24
  I,
• 12:24
  you know,
• 12:24
  most of these races I feel like are 95% plus,
• 12:27
  right?
• 12:27
  Many of them 99% plus that that's gonna go to one side or the other.
• 12:31
  If I can find
• 12:32
  a buy
• 12:33
  on a position like that
• 12:35
  when,
• 12:36
  uh,
• 12:36
  when,
• 12:37
  you know,
• 12:37
  around 89 or 90.
• 12:40
  That's good eating,
• 12:41
  right?
• 12:41
  Like that is,
• 12:42
  you're talking about a 10% profit over 47 days.
• 12:46
  That's great.
• 12:47
  It seems fantastic.
• 12:48
  Sign me up.
• 12:49
  Where do I,
• 12:49
  where do I get involved?
• 12:50
  Uh,
• 12:50
  you get involved on prediction markets and those
• 12:52
  opportunities aren't available with a lot of different,
• 12:55
  uh,
• 12:55
  investments.
• 12:56
  Uh,
• 12:56
  Montana is an interesting one.
• 12:57
  There's 3,
• 12:58
  candidates in this race.
• 13:00
  Uh,
• 13:00
  Almay is the favorite as the Republican.
• 13:03
  Um,
• 13:03
  you,
• 13:04
  you never know with a three-person race how that breaks.
• 13:07
  There's a little bit of uncertainty there.
• 13:09
  There are some polls showing it less than double digits there.
• 13:13
  Again,
• 13:14
  a catastrophic year for Republicans.
• 13:17
  You could see Montana
• 13:19
  move in columns in the coming weeks and,
• 13:21
  and potentially be vulnerable.
• 13:22
  Uh,
• 13:22
  Oklahoma should be uh
• 13:24
  pretty easy.
• 13:25
  South Dakota is uh rounds,
• 13:27
  uh,
• 13:27
  again,
• 13:27
  that's another one.
• 13:28
  I,
• 13:28
  you know,
• 13:28
  I've been able to find some shares in the low 90s,
• 13:31
  uh,
• 13:32
  surprisingly.
• 13:33
  Uh,
• 13:33
  but I'm pretty confident in that.
• 13:35
  Hageman,
• 13:36
  you can't find really any shares in the low 90s with her.
• 13:38
  She's a heavy,
• 13:39
  heavy favorite and what you could argue is the reddest state in the union.
• 13:42
  Uh,
• 13:42
  Tennessee
• 13:43
  is,
• 13:44
  uh,
• 13:44
  Haggerty and,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:45
  Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia should be
• 13:48
  cruising as well.
• 13:50
  There we are in our first kind of,
• 13:52
  uh,
• 13:53
  set up
• 13:53
  with,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  the solids
• 13:55
  and the,
• 13:56
  uh,
• 13:57
  uh,
• 13:58
  uh,
• 13:58
  locked votes.
• 14:00
  Right now we're at the 4443.
• 14:02
  I wanna take a break,
• 14:02
  come back on the other side.
• 14:03
  We will do the,
• 14:04
  uh,
• 14:05
  likelies,
• 14:05
  the leaners,
• 14:06
  and the toss-ups,
• 14:07
  give you a kind of a final
• 14:08
  Senate board
• 14:09
  as to where we stand right now,
• 14:11
  and we have a candidate of the day as well
• 14:14
  coming up on this program that happens to be
• 14:16
  on this board somewhere.
• 14:17
  Yeah,
• 14:18
  yeah,
• 14:18
  I'm gonna give you one,
• 14:19
  and I'm gonna give you one that might be able to triple your money.
• 14:22
  So it's a pretty good opportunity
• 14:23
  if you believe in it.
• 14:24
  We'll go through it here in just a little bit.
• 14:26
  It's predictableShow.com and of course,
• 14:29
  join us on podcast as well,
• 14:31
  wherever you get your podcasts.
• 14:32
  At predictable show.
• 14:51
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 14:53
  Uh,
• 14:54
  by the way,
• 14:54
  uh,
• 14:55
  NFL Thursday Night Football tonight,
• 14:57
  uh,
• 14:57
  Lions and Bills.
• 14:58
  I mean,
• 14:59
  that might be the,
• 15:00
  it could arguably be the most exciting game of the year,
• 15:02
  and it's on Thursday Night Football in week two.
• 15:04
  It's a really weird scheduling quirk,
• 15:05
  so I'm excited about that.
• 15:07
  But this is the real contest,
• 15:09
  right?
• 15:09
  This is the real one.
• 15:10
  The Senate is at stake and we are going through it.
• 15:14
  Uh,
• 15:14
  race by race by race.
• 15:15
  We got through,
• 15:16
  you know,
• 15:16
  the setup.
• 15:16
  I wanted to make sure you understood what we were doing,
• 15:18
  and we got through kind of the boring races,
• 15:20
  frankly,
• 15:21
  in the first segment.
• 15:22
  Uh,
• 15:22
  all the,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:23
  the likelies and,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:25
  uh,
• 15:25
  likelies leaners and,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:26
  toss-ups are to come.
• 15:27
  Let's start
• 15:28
  with the likely Democratic seats.
• 15:31
  We've got
• 15:32
  3 of them.
• 15:33
  Yes,
• 15:33
  3 of them here,
• 15:35
  Minnesota,
• 15:36
  Georgia,
• 15:36
  and North Carolina.
• 15:37
  Let's go through these.
• 15:38
  Now,
• 15:39
  Minnesota is interesting because
• 15:41
  There's recent polling showing
• 15:43
  Michelle Tafoya,
• 15:44
  who's the Republican candidate in this race,
• 15:46
  uh,
• 15:46
  performing pretty well,
• 15:47
  uh,
• 15:47
  in this one,
• 15:48
  and,
• 15:48
  uh,
• 15:49
  challenging,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:51
  Peggy Fleming,
• 15:52
  who is the lieutenant governor now,
• 15:54
  won the primary.
• 15:55
  She's pretty liberal.
• 15:56
  I mean,
• 15:56
  she's
• 15:57
  not
• 15:57
  quite like she's not officially a democratic socialist,
• 16:00
  but she basically is.
• 16:01
  She won a tight primary in,
• 16:03
  in one of those,
• 16:04
  you know.
• 16:05
  The typical dynamic we discussed throughout the primary season,
• 16:08
  right?
• 16:08
  Democratic socialist versus,
• 16:10
  you know,
• 16:10
  I don't know,
• 16:11
  establishment,
• 16:11
  uh,
• 16:12
  Democrat.
• 16:13
  Uh,
• 16:13
  she won that,
• 16:14
  which was not a huge surprise.
• 16:15
  We,
• 16:15
  we did,
• 16:15
  uh,
• 16:16
  profit off of that particular race,
• 16:18
  and I do think that Fleming is the favorite here.
• 16:20
  I still have it in the likely column.
• 16:22
  You could argue that it should go to the leaner column.
• 16:24
  Uh,
• 16:25
  you know,
• 16:25
  it's a,
• 16:25
  again,
• 16:26
  I like thinking about these.
• 16:28
  It takes me time to put these,
• 16:29
  uh,
• 16:29
  in the right positions,
• 16:30
  and,
• 16:31
  uh,
• 16:32
  I wanna make sure that I'm communicating this to you
• 16:34
  in the way that I really think about it.
• 16:36
  I do think it's still a likely race.
• 16:38
  Um,
• 16:38
  I think what we will see is,
• 16:40
  you know,
• 16:42
  there's some
• 16:43
  talk.
• 16:43
  I would love to,
• 16:44
  we should get Patrick Ruffini on the show.
• 16:45
  He had a really good piece on basically
• 16:48
  that
• 16:49
  the summer polling tends to favor Democrats.
• 16:52
  He made a really good case on this,
• 16:53
  and I think he's generally right on it.
• 16:55
  The way I view here the last 6 weeks of this election though
• 16:59
  is what we will see is generally speaking,
• 17:01
  I like to say people come home,
• 17:03
  right?
• 17:03
  Last 767 weeks people come home.
• 17:06
  They tend to come home to their own parties to generally where they were
• 17:09
  to their partisan
• 17:11
  leanings because they start thinking about it not as this
• 17:14
  uh uh esoteric
• 17:16
  back and forth about,
• 17:17
  well,
• 17:18
  I don't like this candidate.
• 17:19
  I don't like them.
• 17:20
  I liked that other person in the primary.
• 17:22
  And they start getting back to,
• 17:23
  wait a minute,
• 17:24
  now I'm not comparing the the person I liked and this
• 17:26
  and the person I'm I'm about to potentially vote for.
• 17:29
  On my side,
• 17:30
  I'm now comparing
• 17:31
  the person who I on my side who I don't really like versus
• 17:35
  someone I really don't agree with on the other side,
• 17:38
  and a lot of times people will come home,
• 17:40
  sometimes they'll stay home too,
• 17:42
  and that's kind of a that,
• 17:43
  you know,
• 17:44
  that's a problem.
• 17:45
  Uh,
• 17:45
  if you have no enthusiasm for the race,
• 17:46
  you might not bother at all,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:48
  to vote at all.
• 17:49
  But if you are the type of person
• 17:51
  who is,
• 17:52
  you know,
• 17:52
  maybe a little bit undecided,
• 17:54
  generally speaking,
• 17:55
  you revert to your mean,
• 17:57
  right?
• 17:57
  You revert back to where you are
• 17:59
  and people start coming home.
• 18:00
  In Minnesota,
• 18:01
  that's kind of what I expect.
• 18:02
  The polling's pretty close here,
• 18:03
  and here's what I,
• 18:04
  the thing about this race.
• 18:05
  Michelle Tafoy is a good candidate.
• 18:06
  She's a good,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:08
  communicator.
• 18:09
  Um,
• 18:09
  and you know,
• 18:09
  we haven't seen her tested on a,
• 18:11
  on a big stage outside of,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:13
  you know,
• 18:13
  ESPN.
• 18:14
  We haven't seen her,
• 18:15
  um,
• 18:15
  tested like on a big debate stage
• 18:18
  where she's asked some in-depth question about something she is
• 18:21
  not in her been in her expertise throughout her career.
• 18:24
  But we know she's good on TV.
• 18:25
  We know she's a good communicator.
• 18:27
  And that's why she's so far just been a good candidate in keeping this competitive.
• 18:31
  I do think Minnesota eventually goes to the Democratic side,
• 18:34
  at least that's my vibe right now.
• 18:35
  Again,
• 18:35
  this is a gut check.
• 18:36
  This isn't a final projection.
• 18:38
  This isn't nothing can change from now until the race.
• 18:40
  This is just where I am right now,
• 18:42
  what I'm really thinking
• 18:43
  and where I'm feeling.
• 18:44
  Georgia's another one.
• 18:45
  Georgia is another one.
• 18:46
  I have positions on the Democrats.
• 18:49
  Uh,
• 18:49
  anything I can get in Jon Ossoff,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:51
  when it comes to Jon Ossoff shares,
• 18:53
  I'm kind of like,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:54
  I'm happy to pick them up,
• 18:55
  uh,
• 18:56
  because,
• 18:56
  uh,
• 18:57
  uh,
• 18:57
  I think Ossoff is
• 18:59
  one of these guys.
• 18:59
  He's actually currently,
• 19:00
  we were surprised to see this yesterday,
• 19:02
  currently the favorite
• 19:03
  for the Democratic nomination.
• 19:05
  I don't know if I'd go that far,
• 19:06
  uh,
• 19:06
  on the Republican or on the Democratic side in,
• 19:09
  uh,
• 19:09
  the prediction markets.
• 19:11
  Uh,
• 19:11
  you have Georgia,
• 19:13
  uh,
• 19:13
  you know,
• 19:14
  uh,
• 19:14
  uh,
• 19:14
  it's just that it's gonna be a really tough race,
• 19:16
  uh,
• 19:17
  uh,
• 19:17
  in,
• 19:17
  in,
• 19:18
  uh,
• 19:18
  in Georgia for any Republican,
• 19:20
  uh,
• 19:21
  going up against Jon Ossoff
• 19:23
  because he just is one of these guys.
• 19:24
  And look,
• 19:25
  Republicans have screwed up a lot of things over the years.
• 19:27
  They have screwed up nothing like they've screwed up Georgia.
• 19:30
  I mean,
• 19:30
  it has been a catastrophic
• 19:33
  set of series of events going back to 2021.
• 19:36
  Uh,
• 19:36
  in,
• 19:37
  in,
• 19:37
  in 2020,
• 19:38
  uh,
• 19:38
  when it comes to,
• 19:39
  uh,
• 19:40
  that state and the politics of that state,
• 19:42
  it has been
• 19:43
  embarrassing on every,
• 19:44
  every single part of this,
• 19:45
  uh,
• 19:46
  because they basically handed both of these Senate seats
• 19:48
  to,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:50
  the,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:51
  uh,
• 19:51
  the Democrats and then fought internally over and
• 19:54
  over and over and over and over again.
• 19:56
  Uh,
• 19:56
  and were unable to
• 19:58
  claim either one of these seats back.
• 19:59
  This is the,
• 20:00
  the big chance to get the Ossoff seat back.
• 20:02
  Uh,
• 20:02
  I don't think it's going to happen,
• 20:03
  frankly.
• 20:03
  I think Ossoff's gonna win and probably win relatively easily.
• 20:06
  North Carolina is another one.
• 20:07
  This is a race that where you normally would see Republicans.
• 20:11
  I mean,
• 20:11
  you might say it's a purplish leaning red state overall.
• 20:14
  Donald Trump did win it,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  in 2024.
• 20:17
  Um,
• 20:17
  however,
• 20:18
  they just got a really good candidate
• 20:20
  for that race,
• 20:21
  uh,
• 20:21
  in North Carolina.
• 20:23
  Roy Cooper,
• 20:23
  former governor,
• 20:24
  very popular there.
• 20:25
  And has led
• 20:26
  basically in every poll that I've seen.
• 20:28
  Um,
• 20:29
  but
• 20:29
  if I didn't have any polling in that race,
• 20:31
  I would still think he was going to win it.
• 20:32
  It's another one that I was trying to pick up shares in the 80s on,
• 20:35
  uh,
• 20:36
  on Cooper.
• 20:37
  It's now,
• 20:37
  uh,
• 20:38
  you know,
• 20:38
  moved itself
• 20:39
  into the 90s.
• 20:40
  By the way,
• 20:40
  you would have known that I was getting these shares back in the 80s if you
• 20:42
  happen to be a member of PredictableShow.com and
• 20:45
  you can look at Stu's picks every Friday.
• 20:46
  There'll be a new edition tomorrow.
• 20:48
  Um.
• 20:49
  Because you,
• 20:50
  I want you to get those things as early as possible if you're in the markets.
• 20:52
  Like if you're just,
• 20:53
  you know,
• 20:53
  watching the news and you like getting,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:54
  the perspective of prediction markets,
• 20:56
  you know,
• 20:57
  I still think it's a great,
• 20:58
  uh,
• 20:58
  subscription,
• 20:59
  but
• 20:59
  it might not be as interesting to you.
• 21:01
  If you are trading in these markets.
• 21:02
  I look,
• 21:03
  I think it's overwhelmingly
• 21:05
  valuable,
• 21:06
  uh,
• 21:06
  and I think it'll pay for itself over and over again,
• 21:08
  so.
• 21:08
  Uh,
• 21:09
  check that out,
• 21:09
  predictable show.com.
• 21:11
  OK,
• 21:11
  go back and going back to the actual board here,
• 21:15
  we have,
• 21:15
  uh,
• 21:15
  uh,
• 21:15
  uh,
• 21:16
  over to the likely Republican
• 21:18
  states and we have 3
• 21:20
  that are there as well.
• 21:21
  Some interesting races
• 21:23
  in the likely
• 21:24
  category for you.
• 21:26
  We start with Kansas.
• 21:27
  This is Roger Marshall.
• 21:28
  He's running for reelection
• 21:30
  and
• 21:31
  This is the type of race,
• 21:33
  I do have a position,
• 21:33
  by the way,
• 21:34
  on Marshall,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:36
  a Republican to win
• 21:37
  in that race.
• 21:38
  You can get that in the 80s right now.
• 21:41
  This is
• 21:42
  Kansas.
• 21:43
  I'm talking about Kansas here.
• 21:46
  Kansas,
• 21:47
  this should be
• 21:48
  a definite win
• 21:50
  for Republicans.
• 21:51
  This should be a race where this is in the 95 to 98% area.
• 21:56
  Now,
• 21:57
  Kansas is a little weird.
• 21:58
  It's a very red state when it comes to presidential elections,
• 22:00
  obviously.
• 22:01
  They do
• 22:02
  pretty normally elect Democrats to,
• 22:05
  to be governor there,
• 22:06
  but you know,
• 22:07
  there's been no,
• 22:08
  no reason to believe there's,
• 22:09
  uh,
• 22:10
  elected a,
• 22:11
  a Democratic,
• 22:12
  um,
• 22:12
  uh,
• 22:13
  senator there
• 22:13
  in quite some time.
• 22:15
  Uh,
• 22:15
  this should be
• 22:16
  easy.
• 22:17
  This is a word about
• 22:19
  what the
• 22:20
  overall
• 22:21
  climate of this race actually is and
• 22:24
  where this,
• 22:25
  what,
• 22:25
  what the,
• 22:27
  what kind of world we're living in as we get close to the election.
• 22:30
  Kansas is a state that should be easy.
• 22:33
  It's uh Marshall versus Adam Hamilton.
• 22:35
  Uh,
• 22:36
  Hamilton's very competitive in the polls,
• 22:38
  too close for comfort if you are a Republican.
• 22:41
  Uh,
• 22:42
  you know,
• 22:42
  Kansas is still a,
• 22:43
  a state you would certainly lean toward Republican,
• 22:45
  but it's closer than it should be.
• 22:47
  That being said,
• 22:49
  If
• 22:49
  the sort of general thesis,
• 22:51
  uh,
• 22:51
  maybe this is a new thesis statement we should put on the board,
• 22:54
  Adam,
• 22:54
  um,
• 22:55
  a,
• 22:55
  uh,
• 22:55
  uh,
• 22:56
  in that,
• 22:57
  in the last,
• 22:57
  uh,
• 22:58
  67 weeks of the election,
• 22:59
  people tend to come home.
• 23:00
  If that thesis plays out,
• 23:03
  a state like Kansas will come back more toward the Republican and you can win.
• 23:06
  And we're talking,
• 23:06
  if you can get that in the
• 23:08
  low to mid 80s,
• 23:10
  I,
• 23:10
  I've seen,
• 23:10
  uh,
• 23:11
  you know,
• 23:11
  I think it's been in the even the high 70s
• 23:13
  for this race.
• 23:14
  You're getting a really nice profit on what should be a sure thing for Republicans.
• 23:19
  Marshall,
• 23:19
  however,
• 23:20
  isn't the most,
• 23:21
  uh,
• 23:22
  popular guy in his state.
• 23:23
  He doesn't have the best approval ratings.
• 23:25
  uh,
• 23:25
  Hamilton is a,
• 23:27
  I don't think he's a great candidate,
• 23:29
  but he's a,
• 23:29
  he's an OK candidate.
• 23:31
  So that's what you have there.
• 23:32
  Uh,
• 23:32
  it's a likely Republican state.
• 23:34
  The polling
• 23:36
  probably shows it as a lean Republican state right now,
• 23:38
  but I have it as a likely Republican state
• 23:41
  myself.
• 23:41
  South Carolina is another one.
• 23:42
  Now,
• 23:43
  if you look at other people who do this exercise,
• 23:44
  I think this is a great exercise for you to just do at home,
• 23:46
  frankly,
• 23:47
  um,
• 23:47
  uh,
• 23:47
  if you're a total loser
• 23:50
  like I am,
• 23:50
  but
• 23:51
  you just take these things,
• 23:52
  you know,
• 23:52
  maybe we should put something,
• 23:53
  this is another note if you could,
• 23:54
  Adam.
• 23:55
  I keep giving Adam notes while we're on the air,
• 23:56
  but
• 23:57
  Um,
• 23:57
  we should maybe make a board like this that people can play with,
• 24:00
  uh,
• 24:00
  that they can make these on their own and put it at predictableShow.com.
• 24:03
  I don't know how feasible that is,
• 24:04
  but
• 24:04
  I think it would be fun.
• 24:06
  Um,
• 24:07
  it's one of those things where,
• 24:08
  uh,
• 24:08
  South Carolina,
• 24:09
  most experts will have that in the solid Republican,
• 24:12
  uh,
• 24:13
  area,
• 24:13
  and I
• 24:15
  tend to think that way as well.
• 24:17
  It should be very,
• 24:18
  very easy for a Republican to win that race,
• 24:19
  and it would have been very,
• 24:19
  very easy for a Republican to win that race,
• 24:20
  and it would have been very,
• 24:22
  very easy for a Republican to win that race if Lindsey Graham were still alive.
• 24:25
  Now,
• 24:26
  I
• 24:27
  I'm not a fan,
• 24:28
  uh,
• 24:28
  particularly of Lindsey Graham,
• 24:29
  uh,
• 24:30
  as a senator.
• 24:30
  I,
• 24:31
  I didn't like love all of his politics,
• 24:33
  you know,
• 24:33
  I agree with him on some things.
• 24:35
  He passes away.
• 24:35
  His sister gets a job,
• 24:36
  very,
• 24:37
  very,
• 24:37
  uh,
• 24:38
  close,
• 24:38
  uh,
• 24:39
  primary where she kind of squeaks it out.
• 24:41
  She wins,
• 24:42
  and now she's the nominee.
• 24:43
  Uh,
• 24:43
  if you listen to the show a few weeks ago,
• 24:45
  you may have seen,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:46
  the reaction I had to that debate where they went back and forth,
• 24:49
  and she was like,
• 24:50
  I'm not,
• 24:50
  I don't really,
• 24:51
  I'm not really an expert in,
• 24:52
  in foreign policy.
• 24:54
  I am concerned about that moment happening
• 24:57
  in a debate,
• 24:58
  in a public forum of some sort,
• 25:00
  here
• 25:01
  in the general election.
• 25:02
  That's the reason I have it in the likely.
• 25:03
  She,
• 25:04
  I'm not sure
• 25:06
  she's really ready for this job or what she's about
• 25:09
  to go through here in the next 6 weeks.
• 25:11
  If she can kind of just stay out of the spotlight and not make any news,
• 25:14
  she's gonna win the race easily.
• 25:16
  But I am concerned about a major slip up after seeing one already in the primary.
• 25:20
  Hopefully she can get her act together,
• 25:22
  uh,
• 25:22
  for her sake,
• 25:23
  and,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:23
  and she can cruise to that win.
• 25:25
  The last one is really interesting and maybe one of the
• 25:27
  biggest values on the board if you believe in it.
• 25:29
  Nebraska.
• 25:30
  Nebraska is a state,
• 25:31
  um,
• 25:32
  we're gonna talk about that,
• 25:33
  uh,
• 25:33
  in more depth here probably next week,
• 25:35
  but Nebraska is a state
• 25:36
  where obviously Republicans should win.
• 25:39
  Uh,
• 25:39
  Pete Ricketts is the guy who is the senator there.
• 25:42
  Um,
• 25:43
  lots of resources,
• 25:44
  kind of a really good position,
• 25:46
  uh,
• 25:46
  to be in normally.
• 25:48
  Um,
• 25:49
  there is a weird thing that Democrats are doing around the country,
• 25:52
  and they are doing it in even some of the races we've already discussed.
• 25:54
  They're basically not even running candidates.
• 25:56
  They're running
• 25:58
  Democrats as independents,
• 25:59
  basically,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:00
  so they are saying they're independents,
• 26:02
  but quite obviously they're not independents.
• 26:03
  They're going to be very heavily voting for Democrats.
• 26:07
  And but they're,
• 26:08
  what they're trying to do is,
• 26:09
  and look,
• 26:09
  as an election tactic,
• 26:10
  I can understand it and maybe it even works.
• 26:13
  But it is basically just trying to lie to the people and say,
• 26:16
  hey,
• 26:16
  I know you won't vote for a Democrat,
• 26:18
  so this guy's not a Democrat,
• 26:19
  Dan Osborne,
• 26:20
  he's just an independent,
• 26:21
  he's just like you.
• 26:23
  I don't know if people will fall for it.
• 26:24
  Uh,
• 26:25
  he ran already against Deb Fisher last election cycle,
• 26:28
  lost by 7 points.
• 26:29
  Uh,
• 26:30
  this is a much better environment for,
• 26:32
  uh,
• 26:32
  Democrats.
• 26:33
  The
• 26:34
  race is very,
• 26:35
  very close.
• 26:36
  Ricketts has a lot of resources.
• 26:38
  Uh,
• 26:38
  he is an incumbent.
• 26:39
  There's something about that.
• 26:41
  Uh,
• 26:41
  but he's not like the most,
• 26:42
  I don't think he's the most engaging guy.
• 26:44
  He kind of,
• 26:45
  kind of comes off a little,
• 26:46
  maybe politician.
• 26:47
  Osborne kind of comes off as like just a guy.
• 26:50
  I don't think he's a great candidate or anything,
• 26:52
  but
• 26:53
  they're trying to give you like,
• 26:54
  I'm just a normal Nebraska guy.
• 26:55
  I like farms or whatever they're doing.
• 26:58
  So
• 26:58
  right now that race is very,
• 26:59
  very close.
• 26:59
  In fact,
• 27:00
  Osborne leads in some polling.
• 27:03
  Um,
• 27:03
  this though,
• 27:04
  however,
• 27:04
  you can get this race at like 70
• 27:07
  for the Republican.
• 27:08
  So,
• 27:09
  Either way,
• 27:10
  it's probably a value.
• 27:11
  If you think Osborne's gonna win,
• 27:12
  getting him at 30 is an incredible value.
• 27:14
  If you think Ricketts is gonna hold on and people are
• 27:17
  gonna come home in the next 6 or 7 weeks,
• 27:19
  it's a great value to go the opposite way,
• 27:22
  uh,
• 27:22
  and,
• 27:22
  uh,
• 27:22
  and,
• 27:23
  uh,
• 27:23
  get 30%.
• 27:24
  I mean 30% on your,
• 27:25
  uh,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:26
  30% points on a 70 cent investment
• 27:29
  that comes down to a 42.9%,
• 27:31
  uh,
• 27:32
  profit margin
• 27:33
  in 40 something days.
• 27:35
  So,
• 27:36
  I mean,
• 27:37
  I don't know.
• 27:37
  Is that better than your checking account?
• 27:38
  Probably.
• 27:39
  OK,
• 27:40
  but there's definitely risk to that race.
• 27:41
  OK,
• 27:41
  next up,
• 27:41
  let's go to,
• 27:42
  uh,
• 27:42
  move this along to the leaners.
• 27:44
  We've got leaners in the Democrats.
• 27:45
  There's gonna be some surprises here for you,
• 27:46
  I think.
• 27:47
  This is where I am though.
• 27:48
  This is a gut check for me only,
• 27:50
  and this is really what I think
• 27:52
  right now.
• 27:53
  Uh,
• 27:54
  so there's gotta be two surprises in there for most people.
• 27:57
  Alaska.
• 27:59
  New Hampshire and
• 28:00
  Ohio.
• 28:01
  Now,
• 28:02
  I kind of,
• 28:03
  when I entered this exercise thought I would have,
• 28:05
  uh,
• 28:05
  I might have put a bunch of these into the the tossup area.
• 28:09
  I,
• 28:10
  I don't have them in the tossup area.
• 28:11
  I have them leaning Democrat and let me talk to you about why.
• 28:13
  Alaska first off is the weirdest one.
• 28:16
  Alaska got the best possible candidate,
• 28:18
  which is Mary Peltola.
• 28:19
  She was a former congressman,
• 28:21
  but Alaska really likes her.
• 28:22
  Um,
• 28:23
  and so she's the Democrat in that race.
• 28:25
  Sullivan,
• 28:25
  the Republican in that race,
• 28:27
  you know,
• 28:28
  he's a somewhat normal regular Republican but
• 28:31
  just doesn't have great approval ratings.
• 28:33
  He's suffering from the climate here,
• 28:35
  and I think Peltola
• 28:37
  is
• 28:38
  in a normal race would be.
• 28:41
  I would,
• 28:41
  you know,
• 28:42
  maybe in the tossup,
• 28:42
  but a little bit,
• 28:43
  maybe even leaning D,
• 28:44
  but this could be a tossup race.
• 28:46
  But add in
• 28:47
  the very weird system they have in Alaska,
• 28:50
  which is a top four system
• 28:52
  with ranked choice voting.
• 28:53
  I don't have time to go into all of it now,
• 28:54
  but
• 28:55
  it's really,
• 28:55
  really weird.
• 28:56
  I would be very nervous about it if I were Republicans,
• 28:59
  and I think
• 29:00
  Pelltola is the slight favorite there.
• 29:02
  I have that as a leaner.
• 29:03
  New Hampshire
• 29:04
  actually is probably good news for Republicans that that's in the lean Democratic
• 29:09
  area.
• 29:09
  Uh,
• 29:10
  Sununu is the candidate
• 29:11
  against,
• 29:12
  uh,
• 29:12
  Chris Pappas in,
• 29:13
  in that state.
• 29:14
  Um,
• 29:15
  Sununu is a known quantity.
• 29:17
  He was senator before.
• 29:18
  Everyone in the state knows the guy,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:20
  and he is,
• 29:21
  uh,
• 29:22
  his
• 29:22
  out of the gate winning the primary polling has been very
• 29:25
  good to the point that he's even being shown
• 29:28
  as tied in these races.
• 29:30
  Uh,
• 29:30
  I just,
• 29:31
  I,
• 29:31
  I'm,
• 29:32
  I'm gonna be surprised.
• 29:33
  New Hampshire could surprise us here.
• 29:35
  Uh,
• 29:35
  I wouldn't be stunned if,
• 29:36
  if Sununu wins this race,
• 29:38
  but right now I have it as a lean Democrat.
• 29:40
  Ohio is the one I was most surprised on my own,
• 29:42
  though,
• 29:42
  I gotta say.
• 29:44
  I keep looking at that race and I keep thinking to myself,
• 29:46
  this has been a Republican state.
• 29:47
  It's been red.
• 29:48
  It's,
• 29:48
  it's no longer
• 29:49
  the 2004 Ohio
• 29:52
  where,
• 29:52
  uh,
• 29:52
  you know,
• 29:53
  it's one of those things where John Kerry is,
• 29:55
  is,
• 29:55
  is the closest state in that,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  in that particular
• 29:59
  election and Kerry barely lost it.
• 30:00
  It's gone red.
• 30:01
  We obviously JD Vance was there.
• 30:03
  He's now,
• 30:03
  uh,
• 30:04
  Vice President of the United States.
• 30:06
  Should be reliably red.
• 30:07
  Uh,
• 30:08
  it's just they've got this democratic
• 30:10
  environment,
• 30:11
  this democratic climate,
• 30:12
  probably a good year for Democrats,
• 30:14
  and then you have Sherrod Brown,
• 30:16
  who is a well-known
• 30:17
  senator there.
• 30:18
  He lost his reelection in 2024,
• 30:20
  but now he's back for 2026 going up against Husted,
• 30:24
  and I really,
• 30:25
  I,
• 30:25
  I.
• 30:26
  I'm in the place now mentally where I think
• 30:28
  that state is leaning to the Democratic side.
• 30:31
  Polling's still close.
• 30:32
  Republicans absolutely
• 30:33
  have a chance there,
• 30:35
  uh,
• 30:35
  but,
• 30:36
  uh,
• 30:36
  I think they're gonna have to spend a lot of money to get it.
• 30:38
  And I don't know,
• 30:39
  uh,
• 30:39
  you know,
• 30:40
  sometimes I don't know what Republicans are
• 30:41
  doing when they're spending their money.
• 30:42
  I don't have any idea.
• 30:44
  And there's gonna be a lot of money we're gonna talk about here in just a second.
• 30:46
  They're gonna need to spend as well.
• 30:47
  So I have that one in the Ohio area,
• 30:50
  uh,
• 30:50
  the,
• 30:51
  uh,
• 30:51
  the lean area in Ohio.
• 30:52
  Let's go back to the leaning
• 30:54
  Republican category here.
• 30:56
  A couple I've talked about here already,
• 30:58
  I mean,
• 30:59
  probably the central,
• 31:00
  the hottest spot,
• 31:01
  maybe the,
• 31:02
  the marquee race of the entire Senate is here as well.
• 31:05
  Two Republican states
• 31:06
  leaning,
• 31:07
  uh,
• 31:07
  that way,
• 31:08
  Iowa and Texas.
• 31:09
  Iowa,
• 31:10
  Ashley Hinson is one of my favorite picks.
• 31:12
  I,
• 31:12
  you know,
• 31:12
  I,
• 31:13
  I continue to believe she's gonna win that state.
• 31:15
  Polling's very,
• 31:16
  very close.
• 31:17
  Some of it shows that she's down by a couple.
• 31:19
  Some of it shows that she's up by a couple.
• 31:21
  Some of it shows that they're tied,
• 31:22
  um,
• 31:23
  but.
• 31:23
  Uh,
• 31:24
  I think this is,
• 31:25
  you know,
• 31:25
  Democrats got a pretty good candidate there,
• 31:27
  but Hinson,
• 31:28
  I think,
• 31:28
  should hold this and
• 31:29
  get through.
• 31:30
  I'm hoping so.
• 31:31
  Uh,
• 31:32
  you can get this race in the low to mid-sixties,
• 31:35
  so it is very,
• 31:36
  very up in the air by the markets.
• 31:38
  A lot of profit.
• 31:39
  Potential there if you believe in Henson or if you believe
• 31:41
  in Turk the other way.
• 31:42
  Uh,
• 31:42
  the biggest probably marquee race of all of this is of course in Texas
• 31:46
  where Ken Paxton,
• 31:48
  uh,
• 31:48
  goes up against James Tallarico.
• 31:49
  Now,
• 31:50
  I'm in Texas.
• 31:50
  I see the ads all the time.
• 31:51
  Maybe I'm only
• 31:52
  seeing that as the marquee race because I'm in Texas.
• 31:54
  I don't know.
• 31:55
  Uh,
• 31:55
  but
• 31:56
  Texas is basically,
• 31:57
  uh,
• 31:58
  you know,
• 31:58
  the markets now are saying,
• 31:59
  I don't know what,
• 32:00
  what the,
• 32:00
  the PMC is saying on this.
• 32:01
  I think it's like 57%
• 32:04
  toward Tallarico.
• 32:05
  In Texas of all places.
• 32:07
  Now,
• 32:07
  my mind is still that people will kind of come home.
• 32:10
  They don't love Paxton,
• 32:11
  I gotta say,
• 32:12
  they don't love Paxton,
• 32:13
  uh,
• 32:13
  in this state,
• 32:15
  but
• 32:15
  if,
• 32:16
  uh,
• 32:16
  I still think he's got a good shot to win,
• 32:18
  and I still think he's maybe a 60-40 favorite in this race.
• 32:21
  But I,
• 32:21
  I softened on it.
• 32:22
  I was more in the 70,
• 32:23
  75% chance probably a couple of months ago.
• 32:26
  Republicans have to spend money if they want that seat.
• 32:28
  If they want it,
• 32:29
  they gotta spend
• 32:30
  5
• 32:30
  $10 million plus
• 32:32
  to win it.
• 32:33
  And uh hopefully they will.
• 32:35
  Uh,
• 32:35
  if you are Ken Paxson.
• 32:36
  And that's what you're hoping for.
• 32:38
  If you,
• 32:38
  if you like James Tallarico,
• 32:40
  you're hoping they don't because Tallarico's got basically unlimited,
• 32:42
  he's got an unlimited money machine right now,
• 32:44
  and they are running ads constantly.
• 32:46
  So Texas,
• 32:47
  uh,
• 32:48
  is a leaner.
• 32:49
  Uh,
• 32:49
  we only have 2,
• 32:50
  by the way,
• 32:50
  toss-up states.
• 32:51
  2 toss-ups.
• 32:53
  And they are
• 32:54
  Michigan
• 32:55
  and Maine.
• 32:56
  Michigan is El Sayed versus Rogers.
• 32:59
  Again,
• 32:59
  El Sayed,
• 33:00
  if he had lost the primary,
• 33:01
  I'd probably have that in a lean Democrat area.
• 33:04
  He did not.
• 33:05
  He's a very extreme
• 33:06
  leftist,
• 33:07
  uh,
• 33:07
  as you know,
• 33:08
  he probably would admit to you.
• 33:10
  He doesn't call himself a democratic socialist,
• 33:11
  but he basically is.
• 33:13
  And,
• 33:13
  uh,
• 33:14
  he is in a very tight race.
• 33:16
  He polling shows a small lead for him in most cases,
• 33:20
  though Rodgers has been shown to be up in some polling as well.
• 33:23
  Uh,
• 33:24
  Rodgers is a pretty
• 33:25
  stable candidate.
• 33:26
  Uh,
• 33:26
  he's not,
• 33:27
  uh,
• 33:27
  some,
• 33:28
  You know,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:29
  someone seen as completely out of the mainstream or anything like that,
• 33:32
  uh,
• 33:32
  is pretty good at raising money.
• 33:34
  Should be a competitive race.
• 33:35
  Uh,
• 33:36
  if you were gonna move that one out of the toss-up,
• 33:37
  I'd probably put it in the lean D
• 33:40
  category,
• 33:40
  but
• 33:41
  I'm gonna right now keep it in the toss-up very,
• 33:42
  very close.
• 33:43
  We also have Susan Collins in Maine.
• 33:46
  We're gonna spend a little bit more time on that here in just a second,
• 33:49
  but I wanna give you kind of the rundown.
• 33:51
  As to where we are.
• 33:52
  We have 34 locked Democrats,
• 33:54
  9
• 33:55
  solid Democrats get you to 43.
• 33:58
  Likely
• 33:58
  3 Democrats get you to 46 seats.
• 34:01
  Lean Democrats,
• 34:02
  3 more get you to 49
• 34:05
  seats
• 34:05
  for the Democrats.
• 34:06
  On the Republican side,
• 34:07
  you have 31 that are locked,
• 34:08
  that can't change.
• 34:09
  You have 13 solid,
• 34:11
  we don't expect any upsets there.
• 34:12
  That gets you to 44 seats
• 34:14
  likely
• 34:15
  Democrat or Republicans.
• 34:16
  There's 3 of those that gets you to 47 seats and then there's two leaners,
• 34:21
  you see how close this is
• 34:22
  that gets you to 49 if you win every single one of those states,
• 34:26
  yes,
• 34:26
  you have a 49-49
• 34:29
  Senate situation.
• 34:30
  That is what it looks like 49-49 with two tossups
• 34:34
  being Michigan.
• 34:35
  And Maine,
• 34:37
  that is how important this is right now and how close it is right now.
• 34:40
  Now,
• 34:41
  a lot of the models will tell you it's a little bit more Democratic favored than that.
• 34:43
  That's what I see.
• 34:44
  That's my gut check right now.
• 34:46
  49,
• 34:47
  49
• 34:48
  with two toss-ups.
• 34:50
  One of them
• 34:51
  we're gonna talk about
• 34:52
  next.
• 35:12
  As I've mentioned,
• 35:12
  I have,
• 35:13
  uh,
• 35:13
  you know,
• 35:13
  something like 300 positions on,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  prediction markets.
• 35:16
  They're all available for you at
• 35:18
  predictableshow.com
• 35:19
  and Stu's picks,
• 35:20
  but
• 35:21
  What we've been doing with the candidate countdown is I
• 35:23
  will basically pick a random one from the field.
• 35:26
  I mean,
• 35:26
  you know,
• 35:26
  you try to pick some that are,
• 35:28
  uh,
• 35:28
  you know,
• 35:28
  kind of closer to sure things,
• 35:30
  some of them that are kind of a little bit more value,
• 35:32
  some in the middle,
• 35:33
  all over the place.
• 35:34
  But I
• 35:35
  basically what I'm doing is I'm picking at random,
• 35:36
  right?
• 35:36
  Like I'm,
• 35:37
  I'm picking ones that I think would be interesting to talk about,
• 35:39
  maybe they tie into the news,
• 35:40
  whatever.
• 35:40
  It's just a selection from
• 35:42
  what is up at Stu's,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:43
  picks,
• 35:44
  uh,
• 35:44
  and kind of give you the justification of my thinking.
• 35:47
  Um,
• 35:47
  so far,
• 35:48
  it has cursed almost every single one of them.
• 35:50
  Uh,
• 35:50
  the second I mentioned them,
• 35:52
  they have their worst polling of the of the season.
• 35:55
  Uh,
• 35:55
  you know,
• 35:56
  uh,
• 35:56
  their dog gets run over in the,
• 35:57
  in the,
• 35:57
  in the driveway.
• 35:58
  Uh,
• 35:58
  it seems like every single time I mention one of these people,
• 36:00
  bad things happen.
• 36:01
  So,
• 36:02
  I don't,
• 36:02
  that's not my intent.
• 36:03
  I want you to know.
• 36:04
  I mean,
• 36:05
  I talked about Greg Abbott,
• 36:06
  who's,
• 36:06
  uh,
• 36:07
  who's now in the 70s,
• 36:08
  uh,
• 36:09
  the 70s to buy Greg Abbott to win the state of Texas.
• 36:11
  Look,
• 36:11
  I still think it's,
• 36:12
  I think it's even better value now,
• 36:14
  so I'm,
• 36:14
  I'm still buying,
• 36:15
  uh,
• 36:16
  but.
• 36:17
  It's just that
• 36:17
  he's had a couple of bad polls now,
• 36:19
  and this is what's going on.
• 36:20
  So,
• 36:21
  let me tell you about the candidate of the day.
• 36:23
  With that being said,
• 36:24
  I'm not trying to curse this particular person,
• 36:26
  uh,
• 36:26
  but,
• 36:27
  uh,
• 36:27
  the candidate of the day,
• 36:28
  I wanted to give you something that was a little bit
• 36:30
  out of what we've done so far.
• 36:31
  This is not someone you're gonna find in the 90s or the 80s or 70s.
• 36:35
  I wanted to give you someone who's more of a long shot,
• 36:37
  who you can get it,
• 36:37
  I think,
• 36:38
  at a real value right now.
• 36:40
  And that person is
• 36:42
  Susan Collins.
• 36:43
  Yes,
• 36:44
  so that was our last toss-up race.
• 36:46
  Susan Collins
• 36:47
  from
• 36:48
  Maine.
• 36:49
  Uh,
• 36:49
  I wanted to bring on,
• 36:50
  uh,
• 36:51
  our friend,
• 36:51
  by the way,
• 36:52
  that look at that picture there,
• 36:53
  Dan.
• 36:53
  Uh,
• 36:53
  that's the picture
• 36:54
  they chose for Susan Collins 1991,
• 36:57
  I mean.
• 36:58
  It's not,
• 36:59
  it's not accurate as to,
• 37:00
  uh,
• 37:00
  what she,
• 37:01
  here's what she looks like today.
• 37:02
  She's still lovely,
• 37:03
  but,
• 37:03
  uh,
• 37:04
  it's a little bit different.
• 37:05
  Just
• 37:05
  age gets to all of us,
• 37:06
  Dan.
• 37:07
  We,
• 37:07
  we looked probably better back in the day.
• 37:09
  I had hair a few years ago,
• 37:11
  you know,
• 37:12
  and now you have a predictable hat.
• 37:13
  Uh,
• 37:14
  I got a hat.
• 37:14
  Yeah,
• 37:15
  that's how it works.
• 37:16
  Um,
• 37:17
  I,
• 37:17
  I wanted to bring this up because you and I
• 37:18
  have talked about this race specifically offline several times,
• 37:21
  and you said you thought you saw some value here.
• 37:24
  I agree.
• 37:25
  Can you lay out a little bit of your case here?
• 37:27
  Well,
• 37:27
  I mean,
• 37:27
  let's just start by saying for whatever reason
• 37:30
  in up there in Maine,
• 37:32
  Susan Collins is like,
• 37:34
  you know,
• 37:35
  a glass of milk and some warm cookies.
• 37:36
  It's just familiar to them and they seem to just be like,
• 37:39
  all right,
• 37:39
  this is,
• 37:40
  this is what we're doing because it's not like a Republican
• 37:43
  stronghold,
• 37:44
  right?
• 37:44
  They,
• 37:44
  I don't think they have voted for a
• 37:47
  Republican president since like 1988.
• 37:51
  And so you look at these polls now and she's up by a couple in some of them
• 37:55
  or only down by a couple in some of them.
• 37:58
  Uh,
• 37:58
  so she's very close in the polling,
• 38:00
  but yet the markets have her
• 38:02
  at,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  I think last I looked it was like a 68,
• 38:06
  32-ish
• 38:07
  something around something around that range.
• 38:10
  So that's a huge gap there.
• 38:11
  Somebody's wrong,
• 38:13
  right?
• 38:13
  Somebody's wrong on this,
• 38:15
  and,
• 38:15
  uh,
• 38:15
  if you look at the history,
• 38:17
  I mean there's not a long history of this exact situation because she in,
• 38:21
  in
• 38:22
  you go back,
• 38:23
  let's look at 2021st real quick,
• 38:25
  so.
• 38:26
  On this exact week,
• 38:28
  she was down 12.
• 38:31
  Uh,
• 38:32
  and then on election day she won by 9,
• 38:35
  so.
• 38:37
  Wow,
• 38:38
  quite a
• 38:38
  turnaround,
• 38:39
  right,
• 38:39
  and so,
• 38:40
  but in past ones like elections prior to that
• 38:43
  she had like bigger leads and then still won by a lot.
• 38:46
  So maybe,
• 38:46
  I mean maybe this just means she's trending
• 38:49
  back down to earth and maybe uh it's just that kind of a year for Democrats where
• 38:55
  uh they're gonna unseat somebody like her but because she's not a.
• 38:59
  Obviously prototypical,
• 39:00
  you know,
• 39:01
  hardcore Republican,
• 39:02
  she's very moderate,
• 39:03
  she's already coming out against Canada,
• 39:05
  you know,
• 39:06
  against Trump's comments on Canada and policies on Canada
• 39:08
  and things like that right now to try to
• 39:10
  align herself.
• 39:11
  So,
• 39:12
  but it does seem
• 39:13
  like 30 seems very low for Susan Collins to me right now.
• 39:17
  Let's take a,
• 39:17
  let me take a quick,
• 39:18
  uh,
• 39:18
  glance at this polling as well with you.
• 39:20
  The X Factor new poll came out today.
• 39:22
  Collins and Jackson
• 39:24
  tied,
• 39:25
  tied in this.
• 39:26
  You see,
• 39:26
  uh,
• 39:26
  Qantas Insights is the,
• 39:28
  uh,
• 39:28
  top one there,
• 39:29
  uh,
• 39:29
  tied at 40,
• 39:31
  what is it 4 it says,
• 39:31
  I guess it says 48,
• 39:32
  47 on that particular graphic,
• 39:34
  but,
• 39:34
  um,
• 39:35
  it was,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:36
  basically tied.
• 39:37
  Um,
• 39:38
  yeah,
• 39:38
  they,
• 39:38
  they have it listed as
• 39:39
  Collins up by 1,
• 39:40
  but basically they're tied.
• 39:41
  The the previous several polls,
• 39:43
  you see Jackson + 4,
• 39:45
  Jackson + 3,
• 39:45
  Jackson + 8,
• 39:46
  Jackson + 21 of the reasons is,
• 39:48
  I think too,
• 39:48
  you know,
• 39:48
  you remember Graham Plattner getting out of that race,
• 39:50
  and,
• 39:51
  uh,
• 39:51
  you know,
• 39:52
  the replacement
• 39:54
  tests well,
• 39:55
  then you have to actually meet the guy.
• 39:56
  And,
• 39:57
  uh,
• 39:57
  and,
• 39:57
  and,
• 39:57
  and Jackson
• 39:59
  seemingly married to his cousin that doesn't even seem to be really in debate.
• 40:02
  I,
• 40:02
  I don't know,
• 40:02
  that's a weird sideline part of this.
• 40:04
  um,
• 40:05
  what's going on in Maine?
• 40:06
  I don't know get the Nazi guy and then,
• 40:08
  you know,
• 40:09
  little.
• 40:10
  Married to the cousin.
• 40:11
  I mean,
• 40:11
  it's just something in the water.
• 40:13
  I don't know,
• 40:13
  uh,
• 40:13
  up there.
• 40:14
  Uh,
• 40:14
  by the way,
• 40:15
  uh,
• 40:15
  Collins has got an endorsement from,
• 40:17
  um,
• 40:17
  Joe Manchin,
• 40:18
  uh,
• 40:18
  the former kind of moderate Republican or Democratic senator,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:22
  in the race.
• 40:22
  Does that move the needle?
• 40:23
  I don't know if it really moves the needle,
• 40:25
  but maybe a little bit.
• 40:26
  Can we get the live market though on this?
• 40:27
  I wanna get the exact prices of where we are right now.
• 40:30
  You see how much it's moved around.
• 40:31
  It's been a Pretty erratic race.
• 40:33
  When Plattner was,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:34
  doing really,
• 40:35
  really well,
• 40:36
  Dan,
• 40:36
  you see,
• 40:37
  he was up in the,
• 40:38
  uh,
• 40:38
  80s.
• 40:39
  Uh,
• 40:39
  he,
• 40:39
  when,
• 40:40
  when the scandal broke,
• 40:41
  he fell back down into the 50/50 type of range with,
• 40:43
  uh,
• 40:44
  with Collins.
• 40:45
  And then when Jackson was announced and people are saying,
• 40:47
  OK,
• 40:47
  well,
• 40:47
  he might be kind of strange,
• 40:49
  but not necessarily
• 40:50
  a guy who is going to be,
• 40:52
  have a Nazi tattoo.
• 40:53
  He,
• 40:54
  he popped back up into this range where he's
• 40:55
  been relatively consistent for the past couple of weeks.
• 40:58
  67-33 is where it is now.
• 41:00
  Um,
• 41:01
  I know I bought some Susan Collins at 30,
• 41:03
  uh,
• 41:03
  not that long ago.
• 41:04
  So it's,
• 41:05
  she's up a little bit from that place.
• 41:07
  And,
• 41:07
  and this is just so quickly,
• 41:08
  Dan,
• 41:08
  we got less than a minute,
• 41:09
  but
• 41:10
  one of the things it's,
• 41:10
  it's,
• 41:11
  when you think about prediction markets,
• 41:12
  it's not always about predicting the winner.
• 41:14
  I don't know,
• 41:15
  I kind of feel like it's a 48%,
• 41:17
  50 to 52% chance she wins this race.
• 41:19
  Like she's the tiniest of underdogs in my mind.
• 41:22
  But there's value there.
• 41:23
  If I can buy something that I think is worth 48 cents at 30 cents,
• 41:27
  that's an incredible value.
• 41:29
  I might not even hold that position all the way till election day.
• 41:31
  I might even sell out of it.
• 41:33
  I,
• 41:33
  I,
• 41:33
  you know,
• 41:33
  who knows?
• 41:34
  But I love the value for it right now.
• 41:36
  Give me a last word on Susan Collins.
• 41:38
  Yeah,
• 41:39
  no,
• 41:39
  I agree with your point right there.
• 41:40
  I mean,
• 41:41
  regardless of the winner,
• 41:42
  I mean,
• 41:43
  I,
• 41:43
  I could easily see on election day,
• 41:45
  we've seen some of these polls and or some of the markets,
• 41:49
  you know,
• 41:49
  violently shift as the,
• 41:51
  uh,
• 41:52
  different
• 41:52
  counties come in.
• 41:54
  So if you're getting her at 30,
• 41:55
  that's,
• 41:56
  and you just think at some point in the night,
• 41:58
  it might go up to 60 or 70.
• 42:01
  Could be some
• 42:02
  good value.
• 42:02
  Yeah,
• 42:02
  she gets,
• 42:03
  gets a good start.
• 42:03
  A couple of good counties come out and,
• 42:05
  uh,
• 42:05
  you might,
• 42:05
  you might be able to sell out of that position even if she winds up losing,
• 42:08
  which is one of the great things about prediction markets.
• 42:10
  You can just set the sale
• 42:11
  and just sit it out there and hope somebody buys it.
• 42:13
  Uh,
• 42:14
  for a nice big profit.
• 42:15
  The good thing about Collins here,
• 42:16
  and the reason why I think it's worth it too,
• 42:18
  if she does win,
• 42:19
  for every 30 cents that you invest,
• 42:21
  you get a 70 cents profit.
• 42:22
  So you're talking about over 200%
• 42:25
  returns on this one.
• 42:26
  It's gonna be a big winner,
• 42:27
  not a sure thing by any means,
• 42:29
  but it's there.
• 42:29
  Dan Andrews,
• 42:30
  friend of the show,
• 42:30
  thanks so much for popping on the program.
• 42:32
  And,
• 42:33
  uh,
• 42:33
  as,
• 42:33
  as,
• 42:33
  as the Susan Collins stand that you are.
• 42:36
  Yes,
• 42:37
  that's me.
• 42:38
  That's what I've been known for,
• 42:39
  I think.
• 42:39
  Yeah,
• 42:40
  sure.
• 42:41
  You,
• 42:41
  you become a fan of weird things when you're doing prediction
• 42:43
  markets or at least talking about them regularly like you do.
• 42:46
  All right,
• 42:46
  back in a second.
• 42:56
  All right,
• 42:57
  so we have,
• 42:57
  um,
• 42:58
  uh,
• 42:58
  uh,
• 42:59
  a lot of stuff going on right now as we get closer and closer to the election.
• 43:02
  To remind you,
• 43:02
  predictable
• 43:03
  midterm consensus,
• 43:04
  the PMC,
• 43:05
  the,
• 43:06
  the election model is up and ready for you to look at right now.
• 43:09
  Go to predictableShow.com.
• 43:11
  Tomorrow,
• 43:11
  Stu's picks,
• 43:12
  brand new batch of them.
• 43:13
  I don't know how many new ones I have.
• 43:14
  I seem to add like 30 every single week.
• 43:16
  I know I have some new margin market positions.
• 43:19
  That I took this week
• 43:20
  might be interesting to you if you're trading these markets,
• 43:22
  uh,
• 43:22
  and there's a great,
• 43:23
  you know,
• 43:24
  there's a great live stream that's part of that package.
• 43:25
  You get a great,
• 43:26
  uh,
• 43:27
  chat with an awesome community.
• 43:28
  I answer tons and tons of questions for people,
• 43:30
  uh,
• 43:30
  you know,
• 43:30
  on the day to day.
• 43:32
  So check that out,
• 43:32
  predictableshow.com.
• 43:35
  It's just a few weeks away.
• 43:37
  Early voting starts tomorrow,
• 43:39
  boys and girls.
• 43:39
  We are there.
• 43:40
  The election is,
• 43:41
  is,
• 43:42
  is right here on your doorstep,
• 43:44
  so.
• 43:46
  Take a deep breath,
• 43:47
  enjoy it all,
• 43:49
  and let's go forward.
• 43:50
  We will see you at predictableShow.com.
• 43:52
  Thanks for joining us.