Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 16 SNF Showdown | Patriots @ Broncos | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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NFL Week 16 SNF Showdown | Patriots @ Broncos | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Fall systems going clear left? What is going on? Ship at Nation YouTube
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station. We're back Christmas Eve edition of the Sunday Night Football Breakdown. I
0:44
got my guy Hamdwich. As always, first off, Merry Christmas and happy
0:48
holidays to everyone out there. If you guys are new, hit that like
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x as you want to call it nowadays at ship a Nation, So going
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there, you'll check that out. And as always, we appreciate all the
1:08
support we've gotten this year. Looking to keep it rolling, looking to keep
1:11
their winners rolling. We had a great Saturday slate or yeah, Saturday Slate
1:17
yesterday with that NFL two game. Are there a lot of close calls myself
1:21
included up there towards the top. Need a couple of things fall my way,
1:25
But how much I'll bring you in man, Happy Sunday, Merry Christmas
1:27
Eve Eve? How we doing man? You in the holiday spirit? What's
1:32
going on? Yeah? No, what's going on? It's Christmas Eve?
1:34
It's not Christmas Eve Eve anymore. Yeah, looking forward to today's game,
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be with some family watching some football. Doesn't get much better than that.
1:42
Got an interesting game, should be a slow paced game tonight, We're going
1:46
to dive into. I think we can find some winners with all the injuries.
1:48
We've got some ready to dive in for sure. Yeah. Not the
1:52
greatest nightcap here to this Christmas Eve, but hey, you'll have good food
1:56
family hopefully, hopefully the kids will be dounced playing whatever, and it'll be
2:00
adult time right drinking some of the beverages watching on football. Obviously, great
2:06
festivities going on Christmas here. We got nine NFL game slate today for the
2:09
main slate, obviously got this night game. We got a couple of NFL
2:13
games tomorrow on Christmas, and obviously always we got the NBA on the television
2:17
for basketball. Guy title and Hebrew did break down that main slate tomorrow for
2:23
NBA, I believe as a quick kit right here on this channel, so
2:27
definitely check that out if you guys are playing NBA tomorrow. Again, we
2:31
always love a little gambling right hand, much a little a little gambling with
2:36
the family around, right Obviously, Christmas family is important, but still still
2:39
got money to be made right in the DraftKings and FanDuel lobbies, so looking
2:46
forward to that. As far as this game goes tonight, thirty five and
2:49
a half is the total here, Denver seven and a half point favorites at
2:52
home here man a lot of injuries right, injuries riddling on the New England
2:57
side, right Hunter Henry's out ormandres out. I believe Juju Smith, Schuster,
3:02
dumpster, whatever you want to call him is out as well. So
3:06
that leaves right DeVante Parker. You got to Mario Douglas. You got Mike
3:10
Yasicki right down at as a cheap guy. You got Farah Brown as the
3:15
backup tight end there. Pretty interesting overall slate here. Let's start with the
3:20
captain position as always. You got Russell Wilson up at the top right,
3:24
seventeen to one for him. Let Russ cook, as they say, I
3:28
don't know what kind of cooking he's going to be doing on this Christmas Eve
3:30
here, Maybe some takeout, maybe some door dash, as the guys are
3:35
joking on the Sunday Morning Show. But where you're going for the captain position,
3:39
because I mean, it's pretty interesting. You got Bailey's app at three
3:44
point two or thirteen point two k in a script where you have to expect
3:47
he's going to be chucking the football around right as the total in the spread
3:53
indicates. So pretty interesting to see where you're going to captain. Saw.
3:57
Yeah, this is a unique game for me because just looking at the slate
4:00
needs, I mean, I don't think I'm gonna have any Patriots in the
4:04
captain slot. I just don't see a scenario where they can win this game.
4:09
They're without you know, two of their better players, if not their
4:14
best players, and Stevenson and Henry and then you got the great wide receiver
4:17
out of USC Juju Smith Schuster are going to miss another game. I just
4:21
don't see it. The Broncos they need this game. It's a must win
4:26
game for them. Patriots season has been long gone. My favorite captain is
4:30
gonna be Cam Sutton sixteen to five in the captain hall. I really like
4:36
Cam Sutton. Tonight would be my favorite. My second favorite would be Javonte
4:43
Williams at fourteen to one, and then you know, third obviously would be
4:47
Russ I think is fine, and then Naids I normally normally don't do it.
4:53
I don't think we've done it one time all year. And this is
4:56
not gonna make a lot of people happy. Whop included. But Broncos defense
5:00
eighty one hundred, it's a gross price, but they're gonna get after this
5:04
Patriots team. I think. I think it's a I think it's a blood
5:08
bath in the in the Maha City. So give me that Broncos. That's
5:11
my four favorite defense tonight and no Patriots for me. I just don't see
5:15
a scenario where where they're optimal tonight. Yeah, I'm definitely gonna be a
5:20
little contrarian. Me and Tam Will kind of think about the showdowns the same
5:24
way. Right, I feel like the masses everybody, especially on Christmas Eve,
5:28
right, people are sitting around with the family getting lazy. They'll probably
5:30
be a little intoxicated building these lineups for this show. And I think there's
5:34
gonna be a lot of group think, a lot of similar type thing and
5:39
people are gonna go in here and just jam these these Broncos like everyone else.
5:43
I mean, it's only a thirty five and a half point total,
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is it? Is it crazy to think on this one game sample? Right
5:48
with Russ wed Russell Wilson led offense that this game script can't can't flip,
5:55
and that's kind of what the route I'm gonna take. Obviously, Denver four,
5:59
two, five one are going to be the popular route, even three
6:01
threes. I don't mind throwing a Patriot up in the captain spot, especially
6:06
if a guy like Juju is out or not, even if he's limited.
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Tomarow Douglas at ten two should get a ton of volume. I like him
6:14
up there. I like Devonte Parker, the two wide receivers. Right.
6:16
You gotta think, as the script indicates, these guys are going to be
6:20
chucking the chucking the football, and I mean Pop Douglas has been showing to
6:26
have a ceiling right earlier this year, he middle of the season, he
6:30
was getting getting reps in there. And if there's not a lot of scoring,
6:32
Pop Douglas goes out there, it catches maybe six for eighty ninety yards,
6:40
maybe a touchdown right at ten two. That can get you enough and
6:43
then you can run it back on the other side with just the floor plays,
6:46
right, Guys like Russ Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Jamonte Williams, things
6:49
like that. One contrarian way to go as well. Throw Zeke in the
6:54
captains poppair him with the Patriots defense in the flex. Right, just flip
6:58
the game script completely. Who don't, oh, right, Denver seven and
7:00
a half point favorites at home here? Maybe Zeke right. Zeke's been heavily
7:03
involved in this oftense since Remandre right getting all the receiving. He's had at
7:09
least five targets in the last three games in the passing a tamp seventeen twenty
7:15
two eleven carries the last two weeks. Maybe the game's crit flips right and
7:19
you find Zeke up there Patriots in the flax. So I have a little
7:25
bit more interest in a couple of these Patriots captains, right, Zeke ta
7:30
Mario Douglas would be my favorite captain from the Patriots side. Zeke would probably
7:33
be two, and then DeVante Parker would be three. I do have interest
7:36
in those guys from the Denver side. Definitely, no Russ Wilson captain for
7:41
me. I just don't like quarterback captains too much, especially with no rushing
7:45
upside there, especially not going to go to a guy like Ross here.
7:48
Don't expect Russ to cook right that joke is fully overblowing, but you get
7:51
a lot of good laughs over the Twitter spaces of other people making the cooking
7:57
means man. Sometimes you don't even let the chef in the kitchen. If
7:59
you can't, it doesn't know how to cook, and it's hard for a
8:01
guy like Russ who's not a chef to be in that kitchen in the first
8:05
place. So definitely out on him. Courtland Sutton, I think is going
8:09
to pick up probably the most ownership from the Denver side. So I do
8:13
like Courtland Sutton, but I think I prefer Javante a little bit here.
8:16
Javante really good running back. Has did definitely let down last week against Detroit,
8:22
right, but he's gotten right around fifteen to twenty touches. I'm getting
8:28
a couple of targets in there, and as the script indicates, right,
8:31
he would he definitely should be in line for a lot of the bulk line
8:35
share of the carries. Here an interesting piece from that as well. Right,
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if you are flipping the script like I plan to do in a couple
8:43
of builds here, go to the New England side right and flip and say,
8:46
hey, New England keeps this close possibly potentially pulls this game out.
8:50
You could look at a guy like Samaj p Ryan, right, because if
8:54
Denver starts to trail, p Ryan is going to be heavily involved in the
8:58
offense, especially in the receiving aspect. Right. You look at those games
9:01
where they were close in trailing seven targets, five targets through the passing game,
9:05
a lot of dump offs there. So that's more of a flex play
9:09
than a captain play for me, though, So toront up my captains.
9:13
I'm gonna go Zeke, Douglas, Parker, Javonte Sutton is kind of how
9:18
I'm gonna go with my five captains. Those are definitely my five favorite captains.
9:22
Go ahead and break years down and then we'll jump into the flex hear
9:24
him, Yeah, captains for me would still be Sutton is gonna be my
9:31
favorite, William's number two, Wilson number three, I'm gonna go. I'm
9:39
gonna go Broncos d number four, and then I do like your pop Douglas
9:48
call at ten two, I mean I'm not gonna get there. I mean
9:50
the most points he scored, he blew up and had fourteen point four points,
9:56
and so I just don't see the ceiling on him, but he would
9:58
be my favorite. I will be shocked if any one of these Patriots are
10:03
in the optimal on Captain. Yeah, well, we're definitely gonna be definitely
10:09
gonna be different here tonight. I'm just gonna I just think the masses are
10:11
gonna go to the Denver side. And it's a one game sample, low
10:15
total here. I get it as in Denver here, but I mean,
10:18
who I mean, We've seen this multiple times throughout the course of the year,
10:22
right, Nobody thought that that game was gonna go the way it did
10:26
yesterday with the Steelers and and and the Bengals and the Steelers Mason, Mason
10:31
Rudolph was chucking out there like he was primetime Tom Brady. So I'll take
10:35
my chances. So definitely a little bit different there, but hey, that's
10:39
why we get out here do these shows. We talked through it, So
10:41
definitely a little bit more contrarian route I'm gonna go here. I just think
10:46
people get extra lazy on the holidays here, Handwich, and I just think
10:50
it's a good, good leverage scenario and I'm trying to win all the money,
10:54
so I'm fine losing if that means if my script goes right, and
10:58
I'm chopping the signify gonna last have a lot more share. Title always talks
11:03
about it. It's not how often you win, it's how much you win
11:05
when you do win. And that's what we all play for, right,
11:07
That's the life for the GPP player. So that's where I'm going to go.
11:11
In terms of the flex position, Obviously a lot of the same guys
11:13
apply here. Your Broncos slappy take there, which is definitely interesting, Broncos
11:20
bron how much is back on the defense captain, which I think is a
11:26
I got my own takes for that, but I understand the play. Broncos
11:30
is fifty four in the flex priced above Will Lutz, who's five point two
11:33
k. And then you got Chad Ryland at four point eight k and the
11:35
Patriots defense at four k flat here against against Russ Wilson and the Patriots defense
11:41
Ben ben okay, I mean eight six, seven five. You can definitely
11:46
get some pressure on the quarterback. Definitely have a decent secondary, right,
11:50
So talk on that. And then you got value guys, right, got
11:52
Kevin Harris, who is going to be the backup to Zeke there at three
11:56
k flat. You got soa pron as basically the past catching receiving back for
12:03
Denver at three point six. K got a lot of these value plays,
12:07
right, start with Mike Kiseki. Right, Denver rank stoneworst in the league
12:11
against tight Endkaseki is gonna get the start there with the Hunter, Henry Hunter,
12:16
Henry News and then you got Pharaoh Brown as as a punt there.
12:20
So touch on some of the values and definitely hit on the kickers and the
12:22
defenses there in that mid tier. It's gonna be tough for Gooseki to catch
12:26
any passes tonight when Bailey Zappi is thrown from his back. But good luck
12:31
to all the Mike Koseki truthers out there that are playing the second just messing
12:37
with the aids. But uh yeah, I mean uh, I mean obviously
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the guys that I like in Captain would would play in the flex as well.
12:46
Some of the guys the lower tier does certainly like the Broncos defense typically,
12:50
well, the defense gets that expensive, they're they're they're a good fade.
12:54
And if you're like n Aids and going to the pat side, I
12:56
think the Broncos is a good favorite for me. I'll I think they're just
13:00
gonna overwhelm this new England team missing several other offensive lineman, key offensive lineman.
13:05
So so no thank you there so love the Broncos flex and or captain.
13:09
Also like Will Lutts, I think the Broncos, you know, they're
13:13
not slated to score a whole lot of points, so you know, you
13:16
know, go twenty to twenty between the twenties and the kickfield goals once they
13:20
stall out. Can certainly see that Devonte Parker he's going to have to play
13:24
every single down for this Patriots team, and similar to Pop Douglas, he's
13:28
going to be out there and if he catches you know, five or seventy
13:31
five and falls in the end zone, then yeah, he's he's gonna be
13:35
played, you know, be a good play. So don't mind Devonte Parker
13:39
at that price. The Patriots defense or a defense and kicker. I was
13:43
looking at at Ryland, who I believe is kicking even though he missed a
13:46
chip shot last week. I don't mind them because I do think this game
13:50
is going to play a lot slower. I don't think it's going to be
13:52
a twenty seven to twenty one type of game. I think it's more of
13:56
a seventeen fourteen, fourteen to ten type of game. So I think these
14:00
defenses and kickers for both sides are viable. Then you touched on p Ryan.
14:03
He's gonna catch passes. Now, granted they were down the whole game
14:07
against the Lions, but he played a bunch, caught some passes, and
14:13
then kind of a you know, one of the guys that I really like
14:16
down low, or two of the guys that I you know, would like,
14:18
you know, for Patriots if I needed them, would be Taekwon Thornton
14:22
and at twelve hundred and Jalen Rieger at two hundred. I don't think we'll
14:26
need the savings, but both of those guys are gonna play. They played
14:30
a lot last week. Not very good players obviously. I mean, riguer
14:33
is a former number one pick, taking one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson,
14:37
so he's two hundred bucks. Uh. Theoretically they should be down, and
14:43
I don't. I don't mind them, just with the lack of options that
14:46
we have on the Patriots side. But for me, it's gonna be heavily,
14:48
heavily geared towards Broncos five to ones, four to twos for me tonight
14:52
on the Broncos side one person. I did want to ask you about Naids
14:58
and I didn't touch on him. Oh the Kevin Harris kid four touches last
15:03
week? He did get that, you know, one long one actually stole
15:07
the TV from Zeke. Any interest in him, I won't play any Kevin
15:09
Harrison three K. But interested to hear your thoughts on Kevin Harris ever if
15:13
you even thought about him. Yeah, I mean, let me just look
15:18
real quick here. I mean, I don't really have a ton of interest
15:24
in him. I mean, if you do think right, the Patriots kind
15:30
of get stomped here, which it seems like you do and everyone else does,
15:33
because just looking at one thing, about forty six to fifty percent of
15:37
the lineups right now are going to be four, two or five one Denver
15:39
builds. So if half the field is going Denver heavy, I'm really fine
15:46
just jumping to the script and going I mean, fifteen percent of the field
15:50
is projected to go four Patriots in a build, so right there, I
15:54
mean, is a way to get different even going to three to three,
15:56
which is definitely the common route. Right Probably forty percent of the teams are
16:00
so are going to go three three, But I think those three threes are
16:03
gonna be with a Denver guy in the captain spot. So building a three
16:06
to three with the Patriot in the captain spot, or a four to two
16:08
Patriots build, or even a two four with a Patriots captain. Any Patriots
16:12
captain I think is gonna be under owned here. That's kind of the script
16:15
I'm going with Kevin Harris. I mean, I guess he's fine at three
16:19
k I don't love it, you got I much rather go with a guy
16:23
like Mike a Seki. Right, Denver just ranks terrible. And if you
16:26
have to, if you think right, you love the Denver defense here,
16:30
you think, oh my god, Bailey's app he's gonna be counting stars,
16:33
counting the counting the stadium lights, right, I mean, you gotta expect
16:37
he's gonna be getting the ball out quick or at least trying. And how
16:40
do you do that with young quarterbacks? Right, inexperienced quarterbacks. They rely
16:44
on their tight ends, especially against the team right that can't guard the tight
16:48
end. Bill Belichick as old as he is, right, he's still he's
16:51
still smart coach. He's gonna have his staff right, realize, Okay,
16:55
Denver can't stop anyone. Obviously, they Patriots have utilized the tight end all
17:00
season long, obviously a guy like Hunter Henry, but Kaseki still has shown
17:03
upside in the past. Obviously with his time in Miami he was solid.
17:07
So I do like Kiseki quite a bit. I'd just rather drop down,
17:11
save that fourteen hundred dollars and go to a guy like Kiseki. So not
17:15
really a ton of interest in Kevin Harris. They just really like to lean
17:18
on Zeke. They've shown that the last couple of weeks since Ramandres went down.
17:22
Zeke's been the pass down guy, as fat as he is and is
17:26
bad whatever you want to talk about Zeke, but he's still basically getting the
17:30
line share of the carries and snaps and everything, and it's hard to ignore
17:33
that. So not a ton of Kevin Harris love for me personally, but
17:38
overall, I do think that was a great breakdown. I just think it's
17:41
interesting fifteen percent of the field or under wants to go with four Patriots in
17:45
the lineup. It's a one game showdown. We're all playing for first place.
17:48
So if six fifty to sixty percent of the field is going to be
17:51
heavy on the Denver side. I'm really, like I said, I'm I'm
17:56
definitely definitely interested in going with four Patriots or even three three build with a
18:02
Patriot captain as a way to get different here. Think enough of these guys
18:06
can get there, right, A Zeke, a Zapp, Right, Bailey's
18:08
app at sub nine k expected likely he's gonna be chucking the ball a ton
18:14
here. He just carved up Pittsburgh, right, a tough defense. Yeah,
18:18
he threw an interception, but he had three touchdowns. Right, He's
18:22
he's a gunslinger out there. I mean, this guy's got nothing to lose.
18:25
Go out there and chuck the football around. Your team's not going anywhere,
18:26
you're not making the playoffs. Go out there and just fire fire the
18:32
fire the football around, right to guys like Pop Douglas, DeVante, Parker,
18:36
Giseki, things like that. So I do like that. I like
18:38
the Patriots defense a little bit. Again, contrarian flip the script, pair
18:41
of them with with Zeke, maybe a Zeke captain Patriots defense, because I
18:45
think you do see a lot of Javante and the Broncos defense. So again,
18:49
just going to the other side. Little things like that can get you
18:52
differently. But the big thing that stood out to me was sixty percent of
18:56
the field is going four too or higher on the Denver side, so play
19:03
for first place sandwich. I think that's just an That's one thing that stood
19:06
out to me. Another value player. I do want to bring up little
19:10
Jordan Humphrey for Denver two point four K. Him and Marvin Mims are fighting
19:14
it out. Jordan Humphrey's actually out snapped him last week. I believe he's
19:18
four hundred dollars cheaper than Marvin Mims. Both of these guys I basically put
19:22
in the same bucket. I would probably at least at most one of them.
19:26
I really don't want to play two of these guys down here at all,
19:30
right below like from Kevin Harris and below, outside of a guy like
19:36
mcgaseki, I really don't want more than one of these guys in my lineups.
19:40
I just don't think you need that much salary saving. I don't know
19:41
if you have a take on that or not, but I just usually make
19:45
a rule in my optimizer why we use the solver over here at chip Nation,
19:49
I usually do at most one of these punk guys, just because I
19:53
just don't like to build teams that way. You still got to get everything
19:56
else right once you do get the punt right anyways, So I just try
20:00
and limit builds like that. But I don't know if you have a take
20:03
on that or what on these cheap guys hit on that. Yeah, I
20:07
mean, I don't know how many cheap guys. I was just trying to
20:11
build some teams while you were talking. I don't think we'll need the savings.
20:14
I mean I like some of the lower like I said, like the
20:17
kickers and the defenses, So for me, it's not going to be a
20:18
matter. I'm gonna actually leave some salary on the table tonight. I do
20:22
think that this game plays under the post of total, which isn't very high
20:26
to begin with. I still think it goes under. So I don't mind
20:30
Rieger, I don't mind Thornton, I don't mind Parker, who's not really
20:33
a low price guy. He's lower, and then the kickers and defense for
20:37
the Patriots is kind of would be the extent of where I go. I
20:41
mean, if Zeke catches another seven or eight balls, you know he's just
20:44
gonna beat me. I'm not banking on an old, washed up slow running
20:48
back to catch eight passes again to beat me. But if that happens,
20:52
I'll do the oldhu, close the laptop and then go to bed and wake
20:56
up with with Sanna in the morning. Yeah, wake up with in the
21:00
morning. But no, I think we broke it down good. Like I
21:03
said, my stand is, I'm gonna be heavier on the New England side.
21:06
Just take a chance one game sample here, the entire industry, entire
21:10
masses, definitely the common the public gonna be tipping those drinks back with the
21:14
family, probably sick of the kids crying, run around screaming at this point.
21:18
Anyways, get in there and just press some buttons, and I think
21:21
they're definitely gonna be pressing Denver heavy. So just flipping the script. There
21:23
is an interesting way to go. And you still got good plays on this
21:27
Patriots side volume plays right, Pop Douglas under price. Bailey's app is cheap
21:33
for what he's gonna be doing. I mean, he's averaging right around fifteen
21:37
DraftKings points per game since he started. So I don't hate that. I
21:41
just that's kind of the stand I'm going with. What's your final takes on
21:45
this show before we getting out of here and go enjoy the uh the main
21:48
slate in Christmas festivities. Man, Yeah, I think I think I made
21:52
it pretty clear that it's gonna be uh, you know, Broncos for me.
21:56
Five ones, four twos. I don't think Look again, I don't
22:00
think I'm getting above DeVante Parker. I may get I may get to Pop
22:04
Douglas at six say don't want him, but no Zeke for me, and
22:10
then no Zappi for me either. Yeah, and it's definitely Broncos Broncos Defense
22:17
Night in my opinion. All right, well, get the chalkboard out Ham
22:19
which has drawing you a chalk story right now, so good good. One
22:23
of us is gonna win. One of us isn't gonna win. But hey,
22:26
hopefully at the end of the day of Shipping Nation members at the top,
22:29
we see those ship at Nation logos at the top. Again. If
22:32
you guys are new, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button.
22:34
In the comment section, drop your favorite score prediction, your favorite captain,
22:38
your optimal captain. We'll take a look at that and maybe maybe Santa Santa
22:41
and Aid's and Santa Santa Ham, which will come out and give give y'all
22:47
a free month if you guys guess the score or you guessed the optimal captain
22:51
down in the comment section below. But as always, Merry Christmas to all,
22:55
Happy holidays. We appreciate y'all tuning in each and every week so far
22:59
on these shows, on all of our other shows. We appreciate the support
23:03
over here at Shipping Nation fourhand much. I'm need to find good luck tonight
23:07
in your contest. Hope to see those ship a Nation logos at the top
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that ship it