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France’s Pauline Hanson? How Marine Le Pen is winning · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, October 26, 2026. Income tax cuts and $ 31
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  Speaker 1: billion less government spending. That's Angus Taylor's plan to fix
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  Speaker 1: the federal budget. Although it's not yet clear how the
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  Speaker 1: opposition leader's other big vows to repeal Labor's investment tax
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  Speaker 1: policies and lower fuel taxes will add up. Victorians are
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  Speaker 1: preparing to throw out Labor after 12 years and elect
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  Speaker 1: Jess Wilson's coalition to majority government. That's according to a
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  Speaker 1: new news poll live now at theaustralian.com.au. The Louvre closed.
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  Speaker 1: Shops boarded up. Tens of thousands of demonstrators and riot
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  Speaker 1: police with tear gas and water cannons. It's all bad
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  Speaker 1: news in France, unless you happen to be Marine Le Pen,
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  Speaker 1: the intriguing leader of a right-wing party whose life and
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  Speaker 1: policies offer remarkable parallels with our own populist Pauline Hanson. Today,
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  Speaker 1: how a woman who's fighting her sentence for embezzlement became
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  Speaker 1: a real candidate for President of France. Thank you, thank
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  Speaker 1: you all.
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  Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, how can I say my
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  Speaker 2: gratitude to see.
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  Speaker 1: You? Marine Le Pen is the most interesting person in
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  Speaker 1: global politics right now. She's kind of France's Pauline Hanson
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  Speaker 1: and she should have been or could have been wearing
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  Speaker 1: an ankle bracelet right now if she hadn't had a
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  Speaker 1: recent win in the French courts. Jacqueline Magne is the
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  Speaker 1: Australian's Europe correspondent. She's been in Paris covering the riots there. Jack,
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  Speaker 1: tell me to start with, who is Marine Le Pen
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  Speaker 1: and is she about to become president of France?
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  Speaker 2: Well, we can unpack that over quite a long time.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, she's been around as long as Pauline Hanson
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  Speaker 2: has been around for a generation of French people. She's
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  Speaker 2: the daughter of a very radical politician who had very
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  Speaker 2: extremist views, Jean-Marie Le Pen. And she joined his party
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  Speaker 2: when she was 18. She trained as a lawyer, but
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  Speaker 2: she's moved the party away from its unstable, very radical elements.
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  Speaker 2: and changed the name from the National Front to the
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  Speaker 2: National Rally. And she did that back in 2018. So
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  Speaker 2: for many years now, she's presented a more moderate face
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  Speaker 2: of the party. It is to the right, and it
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  Speaker 2: is very much a nationalist party. But it's not as
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  Speaker 2: extreme or radical as the party in which her father
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  Speaker 2: founded and in which she first entered politics. So she's
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  Speaker 2: very much moved with the mood and become very much
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  Speaker 2: more palatable to be elected. She's run for the presidential
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  Speaker 2: election three times before. She finished third in her first
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  Speaker 2: attempt in 2012. And then in 2017 and 2022, she
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  Speaker 2: finished second behind Emmanuel Macron. From now on, I am
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  Speaker 2: no longer the candidate of a camp So she's very
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  Speaker 2: much been a very driving force in French politics for
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  Speaker 2: more than a decade, a very long time. And she
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  Speaker 2: is currently leading the polls. A poll that just came
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  Speaker 2: out late last week shows her popularity now at 36%.
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  Speaker 2: And she's clearly ahead of the far left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
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  Speaker 2: who is rating about 16% to 17%. So she is
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  Speaker 2: a clear winner. The French have several runoffs for the
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  Speaker 2: presidential election, which will be held next April. But it
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  Speaker 2: appears if the current polling stays similar, that she will
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  Speaker 2: indeed be the next French president. Now, you did mention
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  Speaker 2: the ankle bracelet. She's not wearing an ankle bracelet at
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  Speaker 2: the moment. That's because Marine Le Pen has appealed her
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  Speaker 2: conviction in the court, and she's gone to the very,
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  Speaker 2: very highest court in France to have her conviction overturned.
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  Speaker 2: This conviction was for embezzlement of funds. She was receiving
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  Speaker 2: money from the European Union And this is when she
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  Speaker 2: was an MP for the European Union, for the European Parliament.
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  Speaker 2: And some of that money, the courts ruled that she
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  Speaker 2: used some of that money to pay her own electoral staff,
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  Speaker 2: that instead of doing work for her involvement in the
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  Speaker 2: European Union, they were doing work for her national rally
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  Speaker 2: political party. She was found guilty once, and then she appealed.
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  Speaker 2: And in the appeal... She also was found guilty, but
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  Speaker 2: they reduced the terms of her conviction, which suspended a
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  Speaker 2: lot of her sentence, which meant that she could run
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  Speaker 2: in this presidential election. But they did rule she would
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  Speaker 2: have to essentially stay at home for a year or
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  Speaker 2: wear an ankle bracelet. Now, if you're out politically campaigning,
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  Speaker 2: that's a little bit difficult to do. So she was
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  Speaker 2: mulling whether she would indeed be able to do it.
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  Speaker 2: She has appealed to the very highest court. Now, this
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  Speaker 2: court is due to hand down its decision in around
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  Speaker 2: January or February early next year. And so it could
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  Speaker 2: be just before the presidential election that this court could
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  Speaker 2: make a very crucial decision about France's future. If they
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  Speaker 2: overturn her guilty verdict, it actually then goes back to
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  Speaker 2: the original court. And essentially, the whole process starts again.
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  Speaker 2: So she could be found guilty again. She could be
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  Speaker 2: forced to wear a tag or even go to jail
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  Speaker 2: if she's found guilty again. So it's a very complex
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  Speaker 2: legal process that she's going through. And in the midst
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  Speaker 2: of all this, the French are thinking, well, are the
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  Speaker 2: courts and the judiciary trying to stop our right to
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  Speaker 2: vote for this party or are they trying to enforce
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  Speaker 2: the law? And that's what many people have very different
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  Speaker 2: opinions about.
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  Speaker 1: It's an incredible arc, isn't it? And again, not dissimilar
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  Speaker 1: from Pauline Hanson, who herself served some time in prison
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  Speaker 1: and then was vindicated, had her conviction overturned. Both these parties,
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  Speaker 1: One Nation and National Rally, they're economic nationalists, they're anti-immigration,
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  Speaker 1: but they're also about law and order. It's an interesting irony,
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  Speaker 1: isn't it, that these riots in France now, incredible scenes
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  Speaker 1: of civil disorder are fuelling Marine Le Pen, who is
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  Speaker 1: a convicted criminal.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's right. And you have to wonder about the
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  Speaker 2: recent events and the riots and the carnage and the destruction,
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  Speaker 2: which is really shocking. I've been in Paris many, many
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  Speaker 2: times for lengthy periods of time. And I was just
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  Speaker 2: completely and utterly shocked when I saw the devastation. I've
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  Speaker 2: spoken to people who were just horrified at what has
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  Speaker 2: gone on, but also terrified. And you have situations where
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  Speaker 2: shopkeepers are arming themselves, they're getting private security in, people
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  Speaker 2: cowered inside shops and restaurants and feed for their lives.
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  Speaker 2: And as windows are being smashed and missiles are being
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  Speaker 2: thrown at them, I mean, it's an environment of extreme here.
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  Speaker 2: And Paris and France, of course, is well known for,
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  Speaker 2: you know, it's a protest movement. And so some people
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  Speaker 2: just shrug it off and say, oh, that's just France.
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  Speaker 2: And it does happen in France a lot. But the
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  Speaker 2: extent of it and the extreme violence that went on,
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  Speaker 2: that's what shocked so many people.
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  Speaker 1: Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, was an out-and-out racist, a
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  Speaker 1: Holocaust denier. In fact, he was convicted multiple times for
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  Speaker 1: appalling things that he said. Marine Le Pen expelled him
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  Speaker 1: from the party over those kinds of comments. It's interesting,
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  Speaker 1: as the riots happen in Paris now, we're seeing at
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  Speaker 1: least some of those young people who are protesting wearing keffiyehs,
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  Speaker 1: waving Palestinian flags. We've heard about Jewish businesses being targeted,
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  Speaker 1: a synagogue in Paris being ransacked. How does her stance
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  Speaker 1: on immigration play as French people are watching their streets
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  Speaker 1: being taken over by people who are, some of them,
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  Speaker 1: the children of immigrants, immigrants themselves, and others who are
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  Speaker 1: very much motivated by this foreign war in Gaza?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think you hit the nail on the head
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  Speaker 2: there where you said about the children of immigrants, because
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  Speaker 2: most of the people who've been convicted so far and
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  Speaker 2: more than 200 have been jailed for their part in
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  Speaker 2: the October 17 and 18 riots. They were French citizens
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  Speaker 2: and had been born in France, most of them. So
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  Speaker 2: you've got this element. It's mainly the young who were
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  Speaker 2: protesting about their student pathways and about funding for schools
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  Speaker 2: and about eating in schools. and just this general sense
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  Speaker 2: of unease throughout the youth movement at the moment where
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  Speaker 2: they have so many different protests or they attach themselves
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  Speaker 2: to so many different causes. And Palestine and Gaza is
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  Speaker 2: one of the really big causes. Now, I was at
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  Speaker 2: a student protest last Thursday in the main street of
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  Speaker 2: the 13th arrondissement. There were thousands of students there. And
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  Speaker 2: I would say a third of them had some kind
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  Speaker 2: of Palestinian apparel on and supporting the Palestinian cause. So
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  Speaker 2: there are so many different elements to this deep sense
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  Speaker 2: of unease that's going throughout the country, but it's also
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  Speaker 2: a very divided country. So you have the young people
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  Speaker 2: generally tending towards the far left and the older people
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  Speaker 2: wanting that law and order and wanting security going towards
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  Speaker 2: the nationalist party of Le Pen. And the candidates in
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  Speaker 2: the middle, who are Macron's party, but also other very
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  Speaker 2: much centrists, they're only polling about 10%. So they look
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  Speaker 2: at the moment like they won't even be in this
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  Speaker 2: presidential race. The causes of this deep, deep, deep carnage
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  Speaker 2: and shock and anger that's just riveting through France, there's
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  Speaker 2: so many different layers to it. And the people are
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  Speaker 2: really trying to unpick what is the cause of this,
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  Speaker 2: but no one really can put their finger on it.
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  Speaker 2: Everyone's so upset with Macron. the way that he just
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  Speaker 2: handled the riots and then disappeared off to the Middle
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  Speaker 2: East without offering any solutions, it's almost like he's become
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  Speaker 2: completely irrelevant in the political debate and decision-making. He's a
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  Speaker 2: lame duck president. And since 2024, where the government has
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  Speaker 2: been unable to pass budgets easily, it's unable to really
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  Speaker 2: form a cohesive ruling government, the country has just slid
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  Speaker 2: into this kind of sense of anarchy and chaos and disaster.
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  Speaker 2: And people want that to end.
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  Speaker 1: Not long ago, you were standing on France's Channel Coast
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  Speaker 1: beaches watching as French police either stood by or assisted
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  Speaker 1: as asylum seekers boarded rubber dinghies trying to make their
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  Speaker 1: way to the United Kingdom. Of course, people in the
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  Speaker 1: United Kingdom perceive France as having done nothing to stop
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  Speaker 1: the tide of unauthorised boat arrivals. Does Marine Le Pen
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  Speaker 1: have a solution to that?
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  Speaker 2: Well, her solution is to stop asylum, to stop the
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  Speaker 2: migrants arriving and anybody who is not French-born to have
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  Speaker 2: restrictions in their benefits and to be held accountable for
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  Speaker 2: their actions. There is a bill that's being discussed this
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  Speaker 2: week in the French Parliament that and that is to
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  Speaker 2: make parents accountable for the damages that are made by
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  Speaker 2: their children. And this is quite a contentious bill, but
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  Speaker 2: it's getting a lot of support at the moment in
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  Speaker 2: a lot of debate. So the French really, in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the migrants, they don't want them on their country.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of the migrants are passing through France on
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  Speaker 2: their way to Great Britain. And so they're literally helping
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  Speaker 2: them on the boat and waving them off. So they
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  Speaker 2: really don't want them in the country. They feel that
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  Speaker 2: the France that they identify with has changed so much.
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  Speaker 2: But yet when I walk around the Parisian streets or
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  Speaker 2: streets in France, you see really hardworking migrants that are
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  Speaker 2: clearly migrants that even are struggling with their French. And
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  Speaker 2: they are working really hard. They're keeping the French economy
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  Speaker 2: going in many respects. So Le Pen, if she comes
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  Speaker 2: in and is made president, there was a poll just
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  Speaker 2: recently that showed that nearly 50% of people who identify
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  Speaker 2: as Islamists would leave France. And so it could be
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  Speaker 2: that there is a mass exodus of people who follow
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  Speaker 2: a particular religion because they would feel that under Le
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  Speaker 2: Pen that she wouldn't be governing for them.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what would Le Pen do to Australia's trade
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  Speaker 1: with Europe? For Australians, this is a very high stakes
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  Speaker 1: French election. Australia's negotiated a free trade deal with the
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  Speaker 1: European Union, but that's now stuck in the ratification process
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  Speaker 1: and it may not get through the Australian Senate. But
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  Speaker 1: there's a real sense of urgency from Australia that if
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  Speaker 1: Le Pen gets in, who has spent a lot of
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  Speaker 1: her time arguing against other free trade agreements, for example,
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  Speaker 1: with South America, that.
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  Speaker 2: It will just be dead.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think? Do we have a short window
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  Speaker 1: to get this done? Would she blow it up if
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  Speaker 1: she became president of France?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think with Le Pen, she talks the talk,
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  Speaker 2: but we're yet to see what she will put in place.
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  Speaker 2: And she has so many items on her agenda. Does
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  Speaker 2: a free trade deal with Australia top the list of
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  Speaker 2: her priorities? Possibly not. Although she will be looking to
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  Speaker 2: show and project very much a nationalist interest and acting
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  Speaker 2: in France's national interest and she'll be supporting the French farmers.
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  Speaker 2: So of course that will impact on Australia's free trade
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  Speaker 2: deal with the EU and she also wants France to
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  Speaker 2: distance itself from particular EU laws and making economic policy
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  Speaker 2: is one of them. So there's a couple of layers
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  Speaker 2: here to unpick before it would have any impact on
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  Speaker 2: an Australian free trade deal. And that is that France
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  Speaker 2: and any kind of Le Pen government would have to
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  Speaker 2: have that authority to be able to override and make
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  Speaker 2: different decisions to what the EU decides. And then only
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  Speaker 2: then would she be able to then say, that a
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  Speaker 2: free trade deal is off the table. So it will
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  Speaker 2: have an impact. Whether it has an immediate impact is
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  Speaker 2: yet to be seen, but that free trade deal is
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  Speaker 2: languishing and it is looking in trouble. If Australia genuinely
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  Speaker 2: believes that this free trade deal is the best thing
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  Speaker 2: for Australia, then yes, they should be pushing it through
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  Speaker 2: as fast as they can because the situation can just
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  Speaker 2: change so radically very quickly.
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  Speaker 1: It's the perfect summation of why Marine Le Pen is popular,
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  Speaker 1: isn't it? The European Union has been, even though she
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  Speaker 1: was a member of the European Parliament, she's argued for
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  Speaker 1: years that the EU duds French people, French farmers. It
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  Speaker 1: duds them on things like immigration policy and that French
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  Speaker 1: people should be allowed to govern themselves. She's able to
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  Speaker 1: frame Australia as the bad guy here, Australian farmers living
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  Speaker 1: in the lap of luxury and getting advantages that French
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  Speaker 1: farmers don't. It's the perfect storm, isn't it?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, it is. And originally, Le Pen argued for France
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  Speaker 2: to leave the European Union. She's rode back on that.
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  Speaker 2: That's not her policy now. But she has said that
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  Speaker 2: she wants to have certain powers back into French hands. Now,
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  Speaker 2: how that comes about and how the EU would allow
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  Speaker 2: that is very much up for debate. And so... This
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  Speaker 2: is one of those instances where she's talking the talk.
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  Speaker 2: She's telling people in France what they want to hear.
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  Speaker 2: But is she actually able to put in place these policies?
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  Speaker 2: And we really won't know unless she's elected and actually
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  Speaker 2: tries to do it.
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  Speaker 1: Jacqueline Magnet, thank you very much.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks, Clare.
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  Speaker 1: Jacqueline Magne is The Australian's Europe correspondent. For all her
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  Speaker 1: reporting and analysis, visit theaustralian.com.au.