Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Shutdown, Soybeans, And Shifting Power

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Shutdown, Soybeans, And Shifting Power · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the AGBO podcast.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to EggBow Media, AGBO Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_02: I'm here in Nashville, Tennessee at Nasvik Trading Group, and my head's still spinning.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_02: I'm spinning.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: I'm glad I don't have to talk much through this show.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: We just had some breaking news, and we're really excited to tell you about it.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: Now, with that, I got to give this guy the introduction he deserves to.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: Let's just hit it, brother.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: Happy Friday.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: A lot to go through.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, sir.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: We're still shut down.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: Shut down continues, sir.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and it's going to affect me now because I travel both Monday and Wednesday on an airplane, and hopefully they'll have a solution this weekend, but don't hold your breath on that because we have some breaking news.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Chuck Schumer, who's the minority leader in the Senate, told the Republicans they offered they would come back and vote to return the government if the Republicans would go along with the one-year extension of the Obamacare subsidies.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: That's the Affordable Care Act.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: It didn't take a nanosecond for the Republicans to reject that offer.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: So there we are now.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what I would suggest is we have to see whether Senator John Thune, he's the Senate majority leader, Republican from South Dakota, John Thune.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, whether or not he keeps the Senate working this weekend.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: If he does, there's still a chance that they can work out a compromise.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: If he sends them home, it could be another week or two before we get a solution to this, whatever it will be, Tommy.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: But uh both ends and stuff.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: Come on.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get into the elections later that happened Tuesday, but it went very well for the Democrats.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's made them dig in even more to get what they want.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: They want to extract a favor, in this case, the Obamacare subsidies.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: But the Republicans are not going to go along.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump is involved on this because he wants to do away with the Senate filibuster.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the Senate filibuster is on most legislation, not all, uh Supreme Court justices only needs a majority vote now.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: But Trump wants them to waive or to do away with the filibuster.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now that's significant, where Thune and others in the Republican Party in the Senate don't want to do that because they know the Democrats will eventually come back in control of the Senate chamber and could do all sorts of stuff, like adding two states, Puerto Rico, DC.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: They could uh increase the number of Supreme Court justices, they could make all illegal immigrants uh legal, and that would make Texas a democratic state, things like that.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: So they don't want that.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I I told a couple people on the Hill they should just partial waiver the filibuster for the government shutdown.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know whether that would be that means that well, you could write legislation that only needs a majority vote in the Senate, by the way, that they could say a government shutdown lasting more than X days, pick a day, 20, 30, or 38 days.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: We're in the 38th day.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: The uh the it would say that Congress, uh it would say the U.S.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: government is reopened, you know, pending further appropriation debates.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't know whether they'll go that way or not, because they're both at loggerheads, and now we're seeing substantial impacts uh starting to occur in the airline industry for sure.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: But you've got the FAA saying uh 10% beginning today of flights are going to be curtailed at 40 major U.S.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: airports, and in my case, it's both Washington National, Reagan National, and Dulles Airport is what I use.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you had 1,200 either delayed or canceled flights today alone.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: And so here we go.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And it's affecting the economy because National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett on uh Fox Business yesterday, I think oh no, that was this morning, said that it could reduce the U.S.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: economy in the current quarter by 50% or more.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it's having an impact uh on business practices.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: And with that, what we're filming this right at three o'clock central time, and the stock market's closing, the Dows up like 50, and the Nasdaq Dows up 60, and the Nasdaq's only down 50.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_02: Full disclosure, folks, the NASDAQ was down 500 earlier today.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, I have a question.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: This might be for a later part of the show, but what about people depending on this?
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_02: 42 million Americans.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_02: Are they getting what are they doing?
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, they're starting uh the the recipients are starting to get due to court action additional uh you know funding of that, 65 percent of what they normally get.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the court ruled that USDA should go to 100 level, but then the the Trump administration appealed that in a court request this morning.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: So that's still tied up in in into the courts.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: But this is all the emotion, emotionality of it, because that's not good signal when you have uh the over 40 million people get food stamps and when they're cut off, that that's that's bad.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and I I think the stock market's calling BS on everything because the SP 500 just closed green, Dow Green, and the NASDAQ.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: If uh given another two minutes, if it could open, still be open, it would be green.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_02: And there could be some reasons to that, and I'll go with this next headline.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: We do have some form of a China trade deal, correct?
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and remember last week when I ended it on an upbeat move mood, watch this.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: Now, we've got a lot of naysayers out this in the in the ag sector because they want to see China uh announce the same thing that the US did relative to the soybean amounts.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: But the trade agreement clearly says China has committed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans between now and the end of December, and 25 million metric tons of soybeans for calendar years, 26, 27, and 28.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: The problem, as we show in this graphic, the US is not competitive in soybeans right now to Brazil, because uh Brazil's uh import uh tariffs total, including the VAT, with both countries uh the uh you know pay the value uh added tax, that's VAT of 13.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: But Brazil's import tariff is three percent versus the United States 13 percent.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the equivalent of uh 44 a metric ton or dollar forty a uh dollar twenty a bushel.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's big.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's big.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: So so what what the what this means now, and like you know, in this chart again, which I always come back to, look at Brazil's production ever since the first Trump administration's trade war with China.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: Look how much they've increased relative to the U.S.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: and even Argentina.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: They're a force to be reckoned with.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: We have to get the U.S.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: soybean price competitive.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now, either that 10% tariff as a result of the fentanyl tariff that still remains, and that's what China put on us.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: Now, either that has to come off, or China has to offer waivers to the Chinese buyers, whether or not they're state trading companies or the private sector buying for China.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that's that's still to be determined.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: We're we may know more November the 10th.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's Monday, because that's when these take effect at one o'clock Eastern Time, midnight China time, okay, one o'clock p.m.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: Eastern time, and we're gonna see some of these policies go into effect, Tommy.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: But many, some more than a few people in the U.S.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: ag trade, analysts or traders, I don't know whether they're talking their position or not, they've uh then been very jaded.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're saying, uh, they don't think China's gonna commit to the, you know, commit or follow through on this because they really didn't follow through all that much in the phase one agreement under Trump's first administration.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: But I say it's the competitiveness nature of that price.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: But we're early in the Trump administration's 2.0.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: And if they don't fulfill their commitment, then Trump could put on tariffs later on, and then we're back into the soup all over again.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: But bottom line, this is early in the ball game.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: We have to see whether or not China's gonna uh initiate a waiver, or we're gonna have to see if that 10% tariff, if Trump were to announce China's fulfilling and being very aggressive in helping us stop fentanyl coming into the United States and their products that make it.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: And if he lifts that 10% tariff that remains on fentanyl on China, the Chinese then would lift that 10% tariff on U.S.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: soybeans and bingo, U.S.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: soybean prices are competitive.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_02: And on a morning meeting this morning at Nasvic Trading Group, our friend Dan Bossi from Ag Resource.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: I think you've been at speaking engagements with Mr.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_02: Uh D.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, know him.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and uh he joins our morning call and he said, Listen, folks, China's a trader.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: If Brazil's cheaper than America, they're buying Brazil, regardless of what they said they're gonna do, they go buy the cheapest soybeans in the world.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: That's just business.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: Can't blame them.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what they have that clause in the uh phase phase one agreement.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I know Dan, I don't know whether he told you that he and some others think that China got some initial coverage in the market by by the futures market, either soybeans or some people say it, even maybe meal, you know, soybean meal.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I've got an email saying, well, if that's true, if it is true, then what happens when they actually buy the physical commodity?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: Is that bullish or bearish?
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Tommy, you're the you're the trader.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: I would think that would be bearish when they have to offset, right?
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_02: If they if they went long, yeah, we have had some big down days here in meal this week.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: We you'd come in at night and you're like, wow, meal's down a bunch.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_02: We had that down 30 day in beans, but we've had some nice recoveries also.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_02: Jim, you posted this next chart real quick, and uh it's very similar to the first green box chart, but this is that's the pork that tells me look at look at the difference between the U.S.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: tariff rate on pork and other countries.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: We're we're still at look at the right hand side, the total applied tariff rate is 47 percent.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we're not gonna sell much for U.S.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: pork to China because unlike some other commodities, China put on a 25% tariff on U.S.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: pork as a result of those steel and aluminum tariffs uh under section 232 that that Trump put on them.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: So I give a lot of pork industry speeches, and I wish I had better news for them, but boy, that's an albatross to go through 47% tariff.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh speaking of pork here on the futures market, it was just a few weeks ago pork was going up, up.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: My hog producers were making margin calls, and uh pork has had a big, big down move here.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: The it went from really looking good to it's pulled back.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: We're all the focus and talk is on cattle, but hogs have had a large pullback here the last three, four weeks, Jim.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_02: So maybe we get cheap enough, we will become uh competitive there.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: I it's like you don't want the price to go down so much, we become no competitive.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: Next headline, sir, speed round no tenth loom large loom.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's the November.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: When we come into the office on Monday, I'll be gone.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be in hopefully I'll be in in Charlotte uh talking to the fertilizer institute.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: But that's when the actual agreements between Trump and Xi Jinping take effect about one o'clock Eastern time.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: And so now we're gonna see whether or not there's some follow-through on some other purchases, not just beans, but wheat and sorghum.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: We had some smaller amounts this week that were confirmed, and maybe some other things.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I will tell you, I'm gonna go up to my notes here because remember that fair that we talked about last week of that China fair in Shanghai?
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one Chinese firm signed contracts to import$5.2 billion in soybeans, corn, cotton, and other agricultural products, although the country of origin is still not confirmed.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: Now, that's that's Reuters on that one.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, then at the fair, I also saw a translation that a Chinese official pushed for cooperation between Chinese and overseas firms to build processing facilities and logistics hubs abroad to quote in ensure a stable, secure, and resilient global ag industry chain.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now that's interesting.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: That's something I'm going to pursue as the weeks and months go on.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: But they're showing commitments here of purchasing a chunk of uh agricultural commodities.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: Let's hope it's uh US products.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think we're getting to the breaking news part.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: This is uh a multifaceted uh pop-up here because upon well, stage is yours.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we get we have the breaking news where Trump wants more supply of beef and he wants lower prices.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: He keeps saying that.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh he's a broken record now, and he's not gonna stop.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the breaking news, do we have the uh true social quote?
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I gotta play the uh breaking news reel.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_02: I get full disclosure credit for that beeping sound.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_02: This just came out minutes ago.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: He's asked the Department of Justice to immediately that begins now, begin an investigation into the meat packing companies.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: I would say another investigation over the years, who are driving up the price of beef through illicit collusion.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: This is Trump, price fixing and price manipulation.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, you got to prove it first before you say it.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: We will always protect our American ranchers, and they are being blamed for what is being done by majority foreign-owned meat packers who artificially inflate prices and jeopardize the security of our nation's food supply.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm asking the Department of Justice to act expeditiously.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your attention to this matter.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: That's Trump word for word.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: He is he's not stopping on on wanting beef prices to go down.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: That brings us into the follow-up story on this is the screw worm and the closure of yes, of the US-Mexico border.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: I will tell you that Trump told USDA secretary Brooke Rollins, he wants that border opened.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Rollins is nobody's fool.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, she wants to make sure that things are in place, such as analysis, such as is Mexico fulfilling their terms, such as working with Mexico to make sure their their increase in the number of flies to ward off the screwworm are in place.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: And but she wants economic analysis too.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: I my best sources that I have over five decades of covering USDA and the White House tell me that they're gearing up for a January possible reopening of the border, but it would be phased in with the Arizona first and other states and other areas following through.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: And in fact, that's what they've done before, Tommy.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: So you know, uh the the impact, I think we have a uh a bullet as far as what they're looking at on the impacts of this uh of any reopening the border that I think is just a matter of time.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: The analysis shows that the U.S.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: took it took one million head out of that pipeline.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: Now, that's ultimately one billion pounds of beef or more due to the screw worm, and that's contributed significantly to prices increasing.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: Trump knows that now.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: He's been told the analysis.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, a phased reopening would eventually bring uh some of that new supply back online with a commensurate price effect.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you, the traders, uh livestock trade, cattle traders are telling me just get over that, get get it announced one way or the other so we can go on to other things.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: That that's what I'm hearing from the majority.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: But the border to me is going to be reopened.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: We don't know for sure when.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: All I hear from Washington is they're shooting for a January reopening, a phased, a phased-in reopening with the consequences that you're showing.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: You want to bring in cattle, they have a lot of cattle to bring in.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_02: And Jim, the markets are reacting.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_02: That first chart, sir is uh feeder cattle chart.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_02: Red line is the hundred-day moving average, folks, and the blue line is the 200.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_02: Anyone who knows trading knows that uh we have support and resistance.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_02: We blew through the hundred.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_02: We still have a lot of gaps to fill.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_02: I know if you're listening to this on podcast forum, feel free to go watch this video, but there's some gaps.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_02: And as you know, Jim, when you have these gaps, markets like to go film.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_02: There's a it'd be I'm looking forward to recording with you in months to come to see what gaps, if any, we fill.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_02: And that's a feeder.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_02: This is a live now.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_02: The markets uh were closed upon that true social tweet of President Trump and the live cattle.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_02: This is the most active contract, closed right on the 200-day moving average.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: I felt like that was a powerful uh true social, and that wasn't against the ranchers now.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_02: Let's just post that tweet one more time.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I'm asking the Department of Justice to immediately begin.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_02: That sounds like strong talk.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_02: That's more than pick up your socks and underwear in your bedroom.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_02: That's like, you know, this is serious.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: This is an that's more of a popular.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: See, that's where Trump is a populist, it's not necessarily a conservative Republican, believe it or not.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: That's more of the populist type of a an approach.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's something you would hear from Elizabeth Warren, who's always against the Packers, things like that.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: And that's Trump when it when it comes to potential involvement of some uh portions of the you know the beef industry.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_01: And then it's got that foreign overtone that you saw in there.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, I I personally I don't think you can say those things without proof, but that's Trump.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: That's Trump.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, and then we add into it that eventually Brazil's president Lula is uh he may even come to the United States to try to convince uh Trump to lift that additional 40% tariff on US uh on Brazilian beef, and that would bring in obviously more hamburger because the Brazilian uh beef would you know come in uh eventually.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, absolutely.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: Right, and I'm just hoping for coffee because I I drink a lot of coffee and I don't I still don't understand why we didn't put a waiver on Brazilian coffee because they put a waiver on orange juice, but not coffee.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of illogic.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: Someone asked me before, I don't understand that policy.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: I said, Well, that's what that's the definition of Washington.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: You you you don't understand it, you just got to go with it.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_02: And I will tell you from the trading standpoint, large cattle traders I know have a coffee ladder, you know, a ticket right next to the cattle, because if there is news out of Brazil, coffee prices just recently hit a record high.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_02: That's what traders do, they look for correlations.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_02: There was news today that uh we'll get to it about the EPA.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_02: I was watching soybean oil, I was watching canola futures, I was watching soybeans, and that's what traders do, and these markets react instantly.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of marketing, yeah, because you asked me early this morning why is soybean oil prices down, and I said it could be.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get to it, what EPA eventually announced relative to the SREs, but we'll get to that later.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: Crop production and WASDI reports are coming back next Friday, November the 14th.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now, we're going and they've got the crop surveys.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: People have been out there, so this will be the estimate of corn, soybeans, major crops as of November 1.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so we'll get uh finally updated information.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: Some people have asked me, well, why did they all of a sudden come back?
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: This was farm service agency oriented, uh, Tommy.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: I was told, because they need that information for some farm programs.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: The milk production reports are coming back because of the dairy program that you need that information for some farm programs.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: So this report's going to come out.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be interesting to see the pre-report estimates or forecast.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: We had the two big Stonex and SP Global come out this week without much change in the corner soybean estimates, where you've had all sorts of reports in the general ag media about the disease problems in corn.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be curious to see that pre-report uh estimate forecast next week.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: But this is not the only thing that USDA is going to do.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to have the supply and demand estimates.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: The demand is going to be curious for two reasons, I think.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_01: Brazil.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: Many people are telling me Brazil's soybean crop, their old crop, not the new crop, not the crop going in, is still too low by three to five million metric tons.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_01: That'll put more pressure on the on the bean market, in my judgment.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: And the second one is now that we have an announced 12 million metric tons of soybeans to China for the rest of this year and 25 million for the next three years on a calendar year basis.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: How will USDA plug that into their balance sheets?
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to see whether or not there's an increase in soybean exports in the in the WASDI report next week.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: Nash will, I mean, not Nash, the World Board will probably have a box on that report uh indicating how they handled that situation.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to have to look closely at that paragraph.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, unbelievable.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take a little break here for uh station identification.
• 24:28
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• 24:34
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• 25:12
  SPEAKER_02: Now back to the show.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_02: We are about two-thirds of the way through, and this is where it gets really interesting.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_02: SCOTUS.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: The Supreme Court of the United States had a November 5th hearing, initial hearing on the Trump tariffs.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: Now, most of the reports that listeners or viewers probably saw was that the tone of the justices' questioning and comments signaled that they would likely vote negative relative to Trump's tariffs.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: In other words, he would not have the ability to do what he announced in a major way.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that's premature.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_01: You cannot, there's no correlation between those hearings, at least, and that you can accurately predict what a SCOTUS ruling is going to be.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: And we're probably going to get it either late December or early in 2026.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: But even if Trump were to lose that, he has a pulpourie of other programs, Tommy, that he can use.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: They won't be as easy as their existing emergency declaration of the use of these tariffs.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: But it is an important decision.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as a backstop, U.S.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: trade rep Jameson Greer came out yesterday and said that, yeah, they have they're looking into a situation where if they were to lose that case, the Trump administration, of how much and and who would get refunds of those billions of dollars in tariffs that they've already generated.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: But he was quick to point out that he still thinks that the Trump administration will win that case in the Supreme Court.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: So there you have it.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: The betting markets are, I think, a little above 50% that Trump will lose it.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm starting to look at those betting markets, Tommy, because they were they were more accurate on these uh Tuesday elections than the political polls were, by the way.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they're and uh we could talk about on a different show, but these betting markets are starting to be a lot more respected, they're starting to become regulated.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to misspeak, but I do I want to get my facts straight on how they're regulated by the CFTC, and I don't want to talk about it today without having uh sure proper stuff.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_02: But this is a fact this did come out today, EPA SRE, sir.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, at 10 o'clock Eastern time, we got the word earlier in the morning that EPA was going to announce the SREs.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we have a bullet saying what they announced.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: And initially it wasn't good for the soybean oil market because I'd have to go back.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think we had a a I'd have to go back.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, there it is, there it is, there it is.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, Joe.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: Full ex full exemptions were granted for two petitions, one for 2023 and one for 2024.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_01: 50 were granted for 12, four for 21, two for 2022, and four for 2023.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: Though though that those portions were negative to soybean oil because the biofuels groups, pro ethanol groups, came out and said, you're hurting the corn market on that one.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: And they had two for 2024, and two petitions were denied, one each for 23 and 24.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: But at least we have those.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: There are just a few remaining.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's five remaining that they have to go through.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: But at least we know that one now, Tommy.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: And that was initially negative as as far as the soybean oil.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_02: I gotta ask you a silly question.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_02: What what determines who gets approved, who doesn't get approved?
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_02: Who how's this work?
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of a black box within the EPA, probably.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they go through, they have I hopefully they have a formula and things like that, but that it's an internal decision.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_02: And I do have the chart of uh soybean oil.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_02: We've been going pretty tight range in between the uh hundred and two hundred day for quite a while, Jim.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, okay.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_02: All right, moving along here on the banners.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_02: Here we have we got through that.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_02: This is a big deal.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_02: This is what all this fighting kind of started about.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, it it was it's a longer term deal, but I'm not gonna say it's a negative because the addition of phosphate and potash to the critical minerals list will give you investment money, okay?
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, because they get various tax incentives and things like that to maybe increase the production into the US.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: But from they tell me for farmers it's it's more of a muted impact because, as you well know, potash and and and phosphate prices, they're mainly primarily influenced by uh global production, uh, Canada, Mexico.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I should have said Canada, Morocco, and Russia.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: They they did.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: Determine the prices short term.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: But longer term, this is good because it it puts those those key fertilizer materials into the critical minerals market that gives the signal to the marketplace hey, if you want to increase production, now you get a tax incentive.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: And we know that fertilizer plants are not cheap to build.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: So they they need that investment help.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: Lots of lots of moving parts here.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_02: This is wild how this show came together today with all the news here.
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_02: A little earlier news in the week would be uh the election, and I don't think it turned out well for the Republicans.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_02: This is a little bit of a wake-up call.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: A bloodbath.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: It was not good at all.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: There are some people, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter had a story this morning that said this is a potential uh blue wave.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think that was a bit of an exaggeration and in my point uh and from from what I could tell.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_01: I'm trying to find out here to get you back on my uh list here.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: You may have to read it because I've lost you.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: Hold on.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_02: Let's oh, on the uh Tuesday election.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, on uh yeah.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: This is the quote that I want you to read, Tommy, because I want me to read it?
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: I can see it in your down below is the best election guru that I have, and this is what he sent me on his analysis of what happened Tuesday.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_02: You want me to read it?
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: On the outcome of Tuesday's election, the argument that the Democrats predictably won in Democratic states, and that this is not necessarily Harbinger for the next year's midterm elections.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_02: It is not without merit, but the more compelling argument is that the people are discontent, particularly over the economy and rising cost of living, which we're talking about a lot on today's show.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_02: Just as people had thought they were voting in 2020 to put a to put a moderate Democrat president in office to calm the waters, people thought they were voting in 2024, 2024, and had prior to put a Republican president in office who would make the good times roll again, just as they had in prior events.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_02: So I think what he's saying here is we keep having a flip-flop.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, put this person in, they'll fix it, put this person in, they'll fix it prior to the events of 2020.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_02: The tariffs, even for Americans who recognize that the balance of trade must be addressed, the ice rates, and even for Americans who believe that the borders must be enforced and that the government shutdown only add to anxiety.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_02: And since Republicans control all of our government, at least according to the polls, that they are receiving the brunt of voters' displeasure.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_02: Congressional Democrats know this, hence doubling down.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_01: How they do, then they're doubling down, and they won by big margins in New Jersey and now my home state of Virginia.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it was it was bad.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the key word that the Democrats are using, affordability.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: And Republicans now, you're gonna hear them say that word.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: And and you see, Trump is out there.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: Trump chastised his Republican members in Congress that went for elections and say, you didn't talk the marketplace, you didn't talk about what we're doing to lower the prices.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: And then he mentioned the energy prices.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: Now he didn't mention electric prices, they're they're gone up.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I think you're gonna see a revision here of how the Republicans gear up for the midterm 2026 elections.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: History tells me that these recent elections will give no signal to what's gonna happen in midterm elections, despite what the Cook political report with Amy Walter says.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_01: I just don't buy it.
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the Republicans, if they can get their act together, and that's a big question, Mark, if this the interest rates continue to go down and if the economy picks up.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: But as we began the show saying this uh shutdown is gonna probably cause the gross domestic product, GDP, which equals the economy, to be cut in half for the current quarter we're in.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's a big hurdle to have to go through.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: So, bottom line, uh, both political parties are gonna have to fight amongst themselves as far as the affordability angle.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_02: Unbelievable.
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_02: Well, here's someone who won't be fighting in Congress anymore.
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_02: And what a career! And honorably, uh, this is someone who made it in Washington as a woman, and that there's a lot to be said for that, Jim.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, absolutely.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: 38 years she was in in power in in Washington.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I remember as a beat reporter covering her, and she was born and raised in Baltimore, Maryland, by the way.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_01: And her father, her father was the mayor of Baltimore, and she took it she would tell the story how she kept the books of favors for her father.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: So when somebody came to the door asking for a favor, she looked up and see what you know what did they do to help her father get re-elected.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_01: So she she learned early on power politics.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: And in an in a DC, which is still a borderline sexist, she's a woman who made it to a powerful office.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_01: So I tip my hat off to her for that.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh she was a formidable competitor.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_02: Nancy Pelosi retiring at 84.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_02: With that, all right, let's get to the end of the show, and then we'll let you finish it on the uh positive note.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_02: We do really have some positives here today.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh food stamps.
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, we're it looks like we're heading to full benefits, at least this court challenge directing USDA to go 100%, find money somehow, somehow, within USDA.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: And as we've said before, there's billions floating around here or there.
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_01: What whatever.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the administration has appealed it, so they could win an appeal, but uh at least we've got uh 65% of the November food stamp payments uh you know going out.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_01: And as far as the needy people, I think that's a good thing.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_02: I I agree with you.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_02: This is uh really creating uh trouble for people.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, folks, if you like this show, you got Mr.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: Wiesmeyer's email down there, Wiesmeyer at Gmail.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_02: I always let Jim finish on a positive note.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know why there'd be any reason to not finish on a positive note.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_02: This is America, it's the best country in the world.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_02: We've had lots of breaking news.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_02: Even upon filming on this, I know how I would finish the show, but it's not my show.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's Wiesmeyer's perspectives.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_02: How would you like to close the show, sir?
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, at least we have information coming out next Friday on the size of the U.S.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: corn and soybean crops, on the demand cycle we're gonna see, as we talked about before.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to see on November 10th, Monday, whether or not uh China gives a waiver to that 10% tariff on U.S.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: soybeans.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_01: And if so, that's very good news because it makes uh U.S.
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: soybeans quite competitive.
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_01: On the meat side, we've got to watch policy, Tommy, because of what we we uh you know, we mentioned what Trump said in his True Social thing, as far as challenging the packers and the companies they're in.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then on the cattle side, we also have to watch the screw worm development and the eventual reopening.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_01: As far as the government, I think reason will eventually prevail.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_01: I just don't know how they're going to get this country, at least the U.S.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_01: government, uh, you know, you know, back to work.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_01: But as you saw intramarket today in the equities market, when they thought that the that there was a solution to this, you saw the equity market shoot up from a 500 downturn initially, as you said, in the NASDAQ in the morning uh to only down 100 or so.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how they ended uh down 50 in the Nasdaq.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: See that that shows you there they must sense well it is at least they're talking, and that's a good thing.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's where we're at.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to add some positives, come you know, you you know, come at it.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_02: I think the positive is that this country's free, and that the fact that you and I get to do this every week is really awesome.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_02: Mr.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_02: Jim Weesmeyer coming to you from Washington, D.C.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_02: Time Grassafi, I'm at Nesvic Trading here in Nashville.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_02: Everyone, thanks for watching.
• 38:38
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• 38:40
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• 38:41
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• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: Have a great week, everyone.