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Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Friday Night Lights | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & NCAA Football | 10/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Hold on.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Not tonight. Not now. Hold on. Hold on.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Let me pull you out. That fella fights hard. But
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Friday, October 9th.
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: Going to have a couple of plays to give out
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: on the show here. We won yesterday with the one
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: play I gave out, which was the Nashville Predators. It
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: was not really what it looked like on the final score.
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: They won 5-2, but that was because they had two
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: empty net goals. They were hanging around in the game.
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: I don't think they were ever losing by more than one,
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: I don't believe, in the game. When I first started
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: paying attention to it, they were down 2-1, and then
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: they tied it.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: I was like, all right, this is looking good.
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: Tied in the third period, and they wound up getting
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: the winning goal late, and then they put two empty
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: net goals in, so it was misleading.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: But I don't know. If you look at the stats,
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: I don't even know who won.
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: Actually, yeah, Montreal won the statistics in that game, well,
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: Montreal won the shot battle at least. So the game, yeah,
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: it was a little bit misleading. We got two power
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: play goals as well from Nashville there. They were actually
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: losing two to nothing early. So my mistake, but, uh, anyway,
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: you look at it, we got the win. Um, yeah,
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: I'll take it. I mean, we had a pretty big
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: underdog price with Nashville on that one and they were
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: in the game pretty much the whole time with at
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: least a chance to cover the puck line part of it,
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: which would be a push. So we got that right. Uh,
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: I was barely correct about UTSA. They gave up more
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: points than I thought they would in football. That was
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: not a play for me, but that was my strongest lean.
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: My opinions were pretty good yesterday. UTSA wound up covering
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: by a half point or pushing, I guess, if you
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: had to play the seven. That one did not make
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: the cut for me. And then I was correct about Cleveland,
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: the Cleveland Indians in baseball. They pulled away with it.
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: Just really, really bad sixth inning for the White Sox pitch.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: I thought the White Sox pitching... at some point would
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: implode with the way they had that set up. I
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: know Cleveland's offense is bad, but that's two days in
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: a row where the White Sox pitching just completely lost it.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: So that's what happened in that game. And then I
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: was correct about my lean on the NFL game too,
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: although I'm not happy about how it went with fantasy,
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: which looked really good early on because Williams got a
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: touchdown for me immediately. He pretty much didn't do anything
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: for the rest of the game, although... He wasn't the
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: bad part of it, though. He was fine enough, but
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: the Pickens was on my bench because I don't like
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: playing wide receivers in Thursday night games, really. Like, running backs,
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: I'll kind of do because they get a bulk workload.
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: Usually, the offenses are a little bit.
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: Lacking on Thursday, let's say, because of the quick turnaround
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: time or whatever, even though I know it's Dallas, but
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: I was also not really expecting them to be losing
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: by multiple scores. I did think Tampa Bay would cover,
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: which they did. I didn't expect Tampa to be winning
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: the game outright the whole time, really, though. And for
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: Dallas to have to go to the air as much
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: as they really did. Pickens put up a bunch of
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: stats late on my bench, which just pisses me off.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: It's worse because T.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: Higgins became questionable basically right around the same time the
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: game kicked off yesterday.
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: I didn't catch it.
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: Because I probably would have put Pickens in my lineup
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: instead of Higgins, knowing that Higgins might all of a
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: sudden not actually play on Sunday. That's not good, man.
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: That is not good for my fantasy team. And then
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: I have Mike Evans, and he's basically playing injured, so
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: he's my only other option at wide receiver unless I
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: pick some scrap heap player up, which I don't really
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: want to do. So I'm probably going to lose for
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: the first time in fantasy this week.
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: And, well, the... Part that really went wrong was Dallas' defense.
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: I played them because I'm thinking, well, Thursday night, they're
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: playing against a rookie QB. If you watch what Tampa
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: did the previous week, they were not extending Daniels at all.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: They were just doing dink and dunk, and I'm like, yeah,
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: he's probably going to make at least a couple.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Of mistakes here. You know what I mean? Even though
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: Dallas' defense, I know they're bad.
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, they gave up 20-something points, whatever, which is
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: kind of what I expected in that game, but even
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: that's not going to kill your defense as long as
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: your defense gets some takeaways and or has a sack
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: or two or whatever, but they didn't get anything. I
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: don't think they had any sacks or takeaways, so taking
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: whatever it was, I think they took a zero or
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: negative one in fantasy.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: That's not good at all, so I'm not happy about that.
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: I'll I'll play bad defenses sometimes if they're up against
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: an offense that I think is going to be mistake prone,
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: especially if it's a quick turnaround time Thursday night and
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: the team that I'm playing is the favorite in the game.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: But, yeah, that sucked. But, you know, I don't know.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: It's a competitive league, and there aren't really that many
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: viable defenses on the free agent list for my league
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: this week. So some of them are going to outplay Dallas, though,
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: for sure. Anyway, let's get into today. I don't want
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: to run too long here. We don't have too many
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: games here. The majority today is college football, but there
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: is some hockey. I will give out one hockey play here,
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: and I have a somewhat strong opinion on one of
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: the other games. Both those games are the last two.
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: Seattle and Detroit's the first game here. I don't really
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: have a strong opinion on this. Detroit finally got their
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: first win, which was my strongest hockey opinion the other day.
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: They beat Ottawa. That was their first win. Staying at home,
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: sometimes when you get a win like that, it will
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: propel you forward, give you some momentum, like when you
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: finally end When you finally end your losing streak, you
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: get that first win. It gets that monkey off your back. However,
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: will Detroit really.
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: Have that much focus on Seattle? I don't know.
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: When Detroit just beat Ottawa, Ottawa was a playoff team
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: last year. Detroit has Montreal, New Jersey, Philadelphia all upcoming,
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: including Montreal being tomorrow. So Detroit might put more focus
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: into that game because Montreal is... a conference foe and
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: they were in the playoffs as well so there is
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: kind of an argument to be made that's a little
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: bit sandwich looking the spot that Detroit is in here
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: Seattle's coming up getting annihilated by the Golden Knights not
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: exactly surprising there Seattle, I mean, there were only two
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: wins against Calgary, which is not exactly impressive, and they
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: won by the same score. We did take a loss
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: in the second one on the show. I mean, I
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: didn't think Calgary would be as bad again in that
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: next game in the quick turnaround revenge spot or whatever
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: you want to call it. Yeah, it didn't happen, but
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: Seattle hasn't really looked good against the two better opponents
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: they face, Edmonton and Vegas.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: Now the question is going to be, well, what are
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: they going to do against Detroit?
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: Because I think Detroit is better than Calgary, but they're
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: not as good as Edmonton or Vegas. So what does
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: Seattle do against a mediocre Detroit opponent here on the road?
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Unclear.
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: They're coming off getting blown out, though. They're starting a
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: road trip, which usually is a focus spot. I think
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: maybe the lean is Seattle here. It looks like Detroit
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: is public, although they are getting some of the money.
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: 76% of tickets, 91% of the cash on them at
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: about minus 140 or so. I think I'd lean against them, though,
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: and towards Seattle, but that's not a strong opinion at all.
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: We have the Rangers at Washington on NHL Network. Rangers
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: off to a 4-1 start, so the public might kind
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: of lean towards them. I believe Washington is only 2-1.
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: The public might kind of jump back on the Rangers
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: train here. Like, oh, my God, the Rangers are this
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: sizable underdog here at Washington, and they're a 4-1 team, right?
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: So the public might be leaning towards the Rangers here.
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: I would take a step back a little bit there
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: because the oddsmakers are obviously telling you that Washington's the
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: better team here by aligning them as a minus 140-something
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: favorite here. You only get about 20 cents, I think,
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: for home ice or so, similar to baseball. maybe a
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: little bit more for hockey, but 70% of tickets, 84%
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Washington. So the money is indicating
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: towards Washington. I would agree with that one. I would
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: be leaning towards Washington here. I think they are the
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: better team.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: The Rangers have a couple of good wins in here,
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: but I mean, they're coming up with a win over
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: the Islanders.
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know what you can really take away from that.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: The Islanders are not good. Easy win for the Rangers there.
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: The Rangers have been good at home so far. They've
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: won three home games. They're only 1-1 on the road, though.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: And one of those was a bad loss to open
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: the season at Boston, who I don't think is that good,
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: even though they looked good yesterday.
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: Which makes the Rangers' win over Utah look less good.
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: If the Bruins can dominate Utah like they did yesterday,
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: at least on the scoreboard they did. I haven't looked
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: at the box score yet. But yeah, I think the Rangers,
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: not really as good as their record looks so far.
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: um do I think they're going to be as bad
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: as last year no probably not it looks like they're
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: improving they're able to win at home now so that's
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: a good sign for them but they're not as good
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: as Washington Washington's only played three games their loss was
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: at Tampa Bay I mean, you can't really knock them
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: for that. Tampa Bay, they're definitely a good team. Washington
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: has a win at Carolina as well. Their only other game,
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: they did what they were supposed to do, and they
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: beat Pittsburgh. So nothing about Washington's resumes look bad so far.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: In fact, Pittsburgh has been the only team.
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: I don't want to call them weak, but Pittsburgh is
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: the weakest team that they've faced so far. And yeah,
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: I do think Pittsburgh's overrated, but Washington handled them. I
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: think Washington's the side to look at in that game,
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: but that is not a play for me either. Pittsburgh,
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: speaking of them, they're at Columbus. This line, I think
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: people are going to look at this and want Pittsburgh here.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: just because name recognition, whatever. People assume that they're the
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: better team, but the odds are telling you pretty much
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: this is a toss-up between these two teams as far
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: as where they're power-rated. We have Columbus at about minus 120,
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: so they're basically getting home ice here. Pittsburgh, 53% of
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: the tickets are on them, 65% of.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: The cash on Columbus, so the money.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: Pretty strongly indicating on Columbus, and I agree with this. Columbus,
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: I mean, we haven't seen much of them yet. They
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: beat Buffalo, who I do think is an overrated playoff
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: team from last year.
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Lost to Utah.
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: But Columbus has a ton of rest here now, man.
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: They haven't played since Saturday.
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: So Columbus has five days off to get over that loss,
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: and they're staying at home.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: So I think that's a good thing for Columbus.
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: Having a huge break after you take a loss I
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: think is a good thing, because you'll spend that break
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: fixing things, right? Whereas for Pittsburgh, they played more recently.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: They did lose to Washington. I think it was kind
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: of a tough game. I think they were within one
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: goal of Washington late in that game. They've now lost
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: two games in a row. They played on Wednesday, so
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh has way less rest here. And yes, that is
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: going to be factored into the line. So maybe the
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: oddsmakers do still have Pittsburgh as the slightly better team here,
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: but they're giving Columbus a little bit more on the
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: line because of the rest. Pittsburgh, close loss to Washington, though.
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: And they play Dallas tomorrow, so they might actually look
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: ahead to that. Although, it gives me a little bit
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: of pause, though, that Pittsburgh might still want to split
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: this road trip here. You know, you don't really want
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: to go home too on the road trip. But it
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: does look like there are some sandwich aspects to this game.
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: Coming off a big game over Washington where they lost
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: by only one score. I don't know how much weight
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: you put into a Washington game Right now, though, because
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: I know that Washington's really good, but people might not
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: really believe that right now because they didn't make the
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: playoffs last year and it's early this season. So maybe
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: that game doesn't matter as.
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: Much to Pittsburgh.
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: And this Columbus game is a conference game, whereas the
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: Dallas game is, I think it's a divisional game too,
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: whereas Dallas is not. So that might have Pittsburgh not
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: totally unfocused here. But overall, yeah, I would lean to
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: Columbus here with the extra rest. The money is agreeing
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: with that. 53% of tickets on Pittsburgh. 65% of the
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: cash on Columbus, so there is market agreement on that.
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: But that is not my play. My play is in
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: the last game here. And we are going to take
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: the Anaheim Ducks on the money line, plus 106 here
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: against Winnipeg. I'm not convinced that Winnipeg is even the
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: better team here, man. Winnipeg is about minus 120-something here.
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: You get a decent dog price on Anaheim. And I
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: think we might be getting the slightly better team with Anaheim,
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: even though people might just think that because, well, Anaheim
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: made the playoffs last year. But based on how these
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: teams have looked to start this season, Winnipeg's getting some
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: of the public action. 59% of the tickets on them,
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: 53% of the cash on Anaheim. And I know we
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: are fading Winnipeg as far as... Winnipeg doesn't have a
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: regulation loss yet on the season, so... I think their
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: record might mislead the public a little bit because they're 3-0-1.
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: Their only loss was an overtime loss to Boston. But
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: if you look at their resume, I mean, they beat
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: Detroit and Pittsburgh. each by one goal. I'm not that
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: impressed by that. But then what they did in their
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: last game, they beat Colorado. That was a huge win
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: for Winnipeg. Beating Colorado, it was in a return home
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: spot to a little quick return home spot. But that
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: was a huge game. I believe that's a divisional game
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: for Winnipeg. Beating Colorado, the President's Trophy winner from last year.
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: I think that's going to put Winnipeg in a hangover
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: spot coming off of that. And remember, Winnipeg does not
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: have hell of a book. I believe he's still suspended
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: or something. So they're using Skinner in net, which I
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: don't think is that good. And Winnipeg is playing a
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: lot of games in quick succession here, man. They're playing
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: a fourth game in six days here, I believe is
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: what this is, and a fifth game in eight days
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: with a decent amount of travel in the middle of it.
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: So Winnipeg has more of a jammed schedule here than
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: Anaheim does. So Anaheim's going to be the more rested team.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: Winnipeg's coming up that huge win over Colorado. And who
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: do they have next? Although they do have a little
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: bit of rest before they play their next game, Winnipeg does.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: They have another huge divisional game against Minnesota, man.
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: So this Anaheim game is sandwiched in, not only between
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: two teams that also made the playoffs last year, all
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: three of these teams did, Colorado, Anaheim, and Minnesota.
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: But those are two divisional opponents, Colorado and Minnesota. But
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: not only.
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: That, but those are considered to be like the top
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: two teams in the entire conference. It's those two and
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: maybe Dallas as far as the power ratings who are
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: considered to be the top teams in this conference.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, I think Winnipeg's an overrated team right now.
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: I think they're coming off a win that was a
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: huge win. I think they have a look ahead as well.
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: So I think it's a sandwich. If you look at
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: this game, Colorado won this game statistically, man. Colorado won
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: the shot battle by a lot. in that game, 34-19.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: They won the face-offs as well. Hits were close.
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: Face-offs were definitely, I mean, face-offs were close too, but
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: Colorado had way more scoring opportunities in this game.
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: This game was not what it looked like.
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: On the scoreboard, and to make matters worse for Winnipeg,
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: by the way, they scored the winning goal with a
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: minute left in the game. So it was an extremely
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: dramatic win for Winnipeg in that game. Yeah, we're going
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: to fade Winnipeg here. By the way, their one loss,
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: the overtime loss, did happen to come at home. So
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: do what you want with that info. But it's so
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: early in the season, I don't think it matters whether
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: they're 3-0-1. Anaheim does have a loss, but their loss
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: was in their most recent game to the Oilers. And
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: I told you the Oilers were the right side in
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: that game on the show because that was a huge
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: revenge game for Edmonton because Anaheim eliminated them from the
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: playoffs last year.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: But look at Anaheim's schedule, man. They're 2-1, but they
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: played Vegas.
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: On the road and then Florida and Edmonton, and they've
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: somehow come out of that with a 2-1 record.
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: That's pretty good. I mean, all three of those teams are, like,
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: top teams in hockey.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: So... Anaheim's played a really difficult schedule, and in fact,
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: Winnipeg is going to be the worst team they've faced
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: so far, and I don't even think it's that close,
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: even though their record might tell you otherwise. I'm telling
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: you not to believe the record there. Power ratings, guys,
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: oddsmakers will tell you Vegas, Florida, and Edmonton, those are
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: three really good teams. Winnipeg is not a good team.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: So this is going to be a step down in
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: class for Anaheim. They're coming off kind of an ugly
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: loss to Edmonton. At home, sometimes when you lose at
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: home like that, one of the best things for you
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: is to just leave, go out on the road. And
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: by the way, this was not totally what it looked like.
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: I guess Anaheim had a shot edge in the game
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: against an Edmonton team. It's usually a dominant offense. Although Anaheim,
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: I think, was putting up a lot of shots because
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: they were losing. It was a 5-2 score, actually, at
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: the end of two. They had a really horrible second period.
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: But other than that, you know, the Oilers didn't do
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: a whole lot outside of having a really good second
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: period in that game. So yeah, I mean, I think
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: there were some things maybe a little bit misleading about that.
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: So I think both teams are coming off kind of
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: misleading results here too. And Anaheim has had more days
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: off recently. Uh, they're only playing a fourth game in
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: the same stretch that, uh, Winnipeg's playing a fifth game. Uh,
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: both of those sits Friday the second when both teams
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: opened their season. So Anaheim has more time off here.
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: They had some time off before the Edmonton game. Um,
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: And starting a road trip, again, you're usually focused. This
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: road trip is just Winnipeg-Calgary. They have to play Calgary tomorrow,
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: but you've got to think that if Anaheim's going to
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: throw more focus into one of these games, it's going
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: to be on Winnipeg because who the fuck cares about Calgary?
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: who look like they're the worst team in the NHL.
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: So we're going to take Anaheim on the money line. Winnipeg,
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: 59% of tickets, like I said. I think I said already,
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: 53% of the cash on Anaheim. So the money is
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: agreeing with Anaheim here. I think that is the right side.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: I think it's a sandwich spot for an overrated Winnipeg team.
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: So that's what I'm going to do. Dirty Sock, what's up?
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out.
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: All right, WNBA, the two series that we have left
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: are back in action here. Both teams that are the
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: home teams in the series are winning 2-0 here. Atlanta
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: and New York, both of these games are shifting to
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: the other venue now. No weird travel spots or anything, though,
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: because the two East Coast teams are playing each other
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: and the two Pacific Time Zone teams are playing each
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: other here.
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: ESPN2 has Atlanta and the Liberty here. Now, the Liberty...
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: They're a competitive team.
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to deny that. And they're also better
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: at home. They're definitely better at home than on the road.
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: But I don't think I want the Liberty here, man,
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: because they had a chance to even the series in
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: game two. They took Atlanta into overtime in game two.
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: And you look at what this game was. It was
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: kind of misleading, man. I mean, Atlanta was winning 67%
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: of the game. Atlanta had the lead for the majority
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: of the game, although they never had a huge lead
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: in the game. But towards the end of the third period,
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: they were winning by eight.
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: Or third quarter, I should say.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: I'm still in hockey mode. And New York was able
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: to make the comeback, tie it up. But New York
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: also had a ridiculous shooting performance. 55% from the field.
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: I don't know if they're going to do that again
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: against an Atlanta team.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: It's a good defense.
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: I do not want to try to play New York
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: in this game. I think they had a misleading effort
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: in game two. They might be in a little bit
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: of a flat spot, actually, after losing the game the
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: way they did, although I will say that when a
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: team's down, you know how I talk about it in
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: the NBA, when a team's down 0-2, going back home,
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: and it's desperation mode, right, because they're facing elimination here.
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: These are five-game series. that team's going to pull out
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: all the stops.
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: You're not going to have a lack of effort, really,
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: from the Liberty, you know what I mean? But I
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: just think that might not be able to do it
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: is what I'm saying like I don't know if they
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: can repeat this effort again because they put so much
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: effort into game two only to fall short and it
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: was a misleading final like I said and one of
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: the things that really would worry me about New York
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: is that Atlanta had way more possessions in this game
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: even though they actually lost the rebound battle New York
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: had 17 turnovers in the game although one thing that
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: makes it a positive is that New York was able
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: to overcome all those turnovers and they were able to
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: play well enough to have a close game here. But
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: on the flip side of that, it was, again, because
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: New York shot way too well from the field, 55%,
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: and also 48% from three.
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: They're not going to do that again.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: Those are outlier percentages, especially against an Atlanta team that's
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: good at defending, typically. And Atlanta had 20 more field
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: goal attempts in the game. So that tells you Atlanta
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: had way more possessions in this game. Now, the Liberty
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: could definitely clean up some of their turnover issues. They'll
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: probably be better defensively. at ball handling now that they're
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: back at home and whatever, but I still, I don't
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: trust the Liberty off of that game, man.
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I want nothing to do with this. I haven't
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: had a WNBA play in a while.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: It wasn't going well anyway, but I don't know if
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: I'm going to have another play or not, but I
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: don't have one here.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: The Liberty are getting the money.
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: 83% of tickets though, but 94% of the cash. It's
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: kind of a similar market read on both games.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: The total is way.
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: Higher in this game though, Atlanta, New York, because New
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: York is the one of these teams left that, like
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: they don't defend that well. I think all three of
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: these other teams that are still alive have good defenses.
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: New York does not really. I wouldn't want to play
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: the over or anything like that in this game, though,
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: because the last game went into overtime. So you see, oh,
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: my God, you know, both teams got like around 100 points. Yeah,
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: but that's because it went into overtime. You know, so
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't read too much into that. I don't really
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: do the totals anyway, though. The Liberty are about a
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: two and a half, three point favorite here. I don't
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: think I would do it. I don't think I'd want
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: to lay the points there, man. In fact, I'd probably
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: lean in the other direction, to be honest. Even though
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: these 0-2 teams, I usually look to play on them
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: in Game 3. That's not one that I want to do.
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: And then Golden State of Vegas, Peacock NBC Sports has
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: this game. Vegas almost was able to win the second game,
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: but really, if you look at this game, this was
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: misleading too, though. Golden State was winning for 95% of
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: the game. Golden State actually dominated this game. Vegas came
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: back late, but look at this game, man. Golden State
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: was winning almost the entire game by double digits. And
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: then I think maybe they took their foot off the gas.
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: Vegas made a furious comeback late in the game, only
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: to still fall short after Vegas took the lead, by
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: the way, late in the game. After they were losing
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: the whole game, they actually took the lead at some point.
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: Even though I know it says 0% lead, but they
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: did lead for a fraction of a percent in the game.
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: They were up one time, 76-74. They still fell short.
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: If you look at the stats, that doesn't really look
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: great for Vegas either because.
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: Both teams shot similarly, had a similar amount of possessions.
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: Vegas hit 42% from three, though, so they shot a
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: little bit better than usual from three.
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: So I don't want Vegas in this game. I do
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: not want them. Just, you know... This game was not
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: what it looked like on the scoreboard. It was not
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: that close of a game.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: Golden State dominated them, so I don't know what else
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: to say about it. And Vegas is typically a pretty
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: good road team, but Golden State's been the better team
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: in the series. Golden State, they won the rebound battle again,
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: not as dominantly as they won the first time, but
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: Golden State's been the better team in the series, man.
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: They've been really good in the paint. Asia Wilson, she
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: just won the MVP, so... There might be a little
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: bit of a letdown there too. I don't know, why
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: did they give up the MVP in the middle of
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: the playoffs when the teams are still playing?
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but Asia Wilson just won her fifth
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: MVP award.
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: So maybe there's something there too where that's going to
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: kind of overrate them. Maybe there's a little bit of
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: a distraction there, kind of like the Heisman curse in
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: the bowls. Maybe giving Wilson the MVP at this time
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: might not be that good for her mentally.
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: Vegas, by the way, they are a little bit of
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: an injured team as well. Let me see here.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: I know they have like one of their players has
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: been out for like the whole playoffs, which is, I
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: forget who it is. I think it might not be
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: one of their starters though. But yeah, Vegas, I think
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: they're playing a little bit shorthanded in the playoffs here.
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, Vegas is getting the money here.
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: Like I said, they're down 0-2. They're in desperation mode
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: back in Vegas here now. 67% of tickets, 89% of
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. Lane three and a half. I
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: wouldn't do it though. I'd probably lean towards Golden State
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: in this game, to be honest. I actually think that
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: the teams that are up 2-0 in the series, I
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: just don't think it's really been that misleading. I don't
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: like the teams that are down 0-2. I don't like
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: what they did in Game 2, where they both made
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: comebacks just to fall short. I don't like that, and again,
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: those games were a little bit misleading, especially the Golden
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: State-Vegas one. Golden State dominated that game, and really, they've
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: dominated the whole.
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: Series so far. This total is way lower than the
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: other total.
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: This total's in the 150-something range here. Public coming in
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: on the over, it looks like, in this game. If
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: the public's even playing WNBA, I don't know, but yeah,
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: I don't think I have much else on this game,
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: but yeah, I I don't like any of this, so
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: I'm avoiding the WNBA here. But, yeah, I mean, normally
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: I'd like to play on the teams down 0-2 in
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: desperation mode, but the way these series have played out.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: I don't want to do it. I don't like it.
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: Like, again, if anything was misleading about the game two
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: box scores, the games were more in favor of the
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: teams that won the game than it looked like on
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: the scoreboard. And also I will point out Vegas has
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: not exactly been that dominant of a home team.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: In fact, I think they're actually better on the road
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: than they are at home.
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: And Golden State does have a good road record, so
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: going on the road, I don't think it's going to really...
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: impact them. And in fact, Golden State has won all
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: five games.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: Against Vegas this year, by the way. Or no, excuse me. No,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: Vegas won all three in the regular season. My mistake. Yeah,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: Vegas won all three during the regular season. So actually, yeah.
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: I was going to say, I thought Golden State had
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: won all five times. They didn't.
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: Golden State's dominated the playoff series. I don't know what
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: to tell you, man. Even though Vegas did dominate the
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: regular season, but they hadn't played since June against each other. So,
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: you know, Golden State may have kind of started turning
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: it on later in the season and playing even better.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: But, yeah, I don't know, man. I like this Golden
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: State team. I think they're good.
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: At this point, you know, they're going to win the
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: series most likely. I don't see either team down 0-2.
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: I don't see either of them coming back and winning
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: three straight.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? It's highly unlikely in a
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: WNBA series. All right. And the only thing left is
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: college football. Garrett, what's up, man? Yes, that sucks.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know what, dude, I hate the Dodgers. I
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: don't know what to say. I did not think the
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: Braves were going to win that series, though. So, I
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: don't know. I had the under in the second to
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: last game.
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: I wish I gave out the under as an actual
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: play because that was my strongest opinion in the last
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: game that they played. That was my strongest opinion that day.
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: I should have done it.
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know what else to say.
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: And then there was that thing that everybody's blowing up
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: about that happened in that last game with the– Kid,
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: he looked like a teenager, dude. You know what I'm
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: talking about. The kid who caught the ball for the Dodgers.
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: He was a Dodgers fan. Looked like he was there
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: with his father and maybe, I.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: Don't know, some other relative or something. Sister? I don't
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: really remember.
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: But you know what I'm talking about. The Dodgers kid
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: caught the ball. And then one section over, these stupid parents...
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: started yelling at him to give the ball to their
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: kid who looked like he was like, you know, a
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: little boy, basically, in a Braves uniform, by the way.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: And the kid is too young to even know what's
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: going on, right? Like, the kid doesn't care. It's the
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: parents that want to steal the ball.
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: Like, so basically, it was the parents trying to steal
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: a ball from a teenager that the teenager caught.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: It's like, come on, man. Fuck you, man. And they're
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: trying to guilt him into giving it over, and everybody,
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: give the kid the ball. I'm like, fuck you. Like,
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: the kid that.
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: Caught it is still a kid. He's probably never going
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: to catch a ball again. It's a rare occurrence, you
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: know what I mean? So yeah, those parents are assholes.
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: The kid is in the right. It's not like the
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia Karen situation, which, shout out to, if you saw
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: my Halloween costume last year, I was the Philadelphia Karen
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: for Halloween last year, because I went really current with it,
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: like I like to do sometimes, and everybody knew what
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: it was. But it was not that situation, where she
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: literally ran a section over to steal a ball from
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: a kid, This was the complete opposite, basically. Like, in
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: this case, you know, the kid caught the ball. It
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: went to him, and he caught it, and then you
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: have the people from a section over. If the parents
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: ran from a section over to steal the ball for
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: their kid, they would have been the Philadelphia Karen in
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: this case, and they kind of were anyway. They just
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: didn't do what she did and run over to try
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: to take the ball from a section away, and I
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: know this kid wasn't as young as that other kid,
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: but still.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's all so fucking stupid, man. Like, what are
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: you supposed to do whenever you catch a ball in
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: a major league stadium? You're supposed to look around and
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: find the nearest kid and give the kid the ball?
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: No, fuck you. If I catch it, I'm going to
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: keep it. Fuck off. You know what I mean?
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: And I've been close to catching a couple of balls,
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: and it's never actually happened. I almost caught a.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: I.
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: Was in Fenway right behind the bullpens when I was
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: a kid. I was with my dad, and I wasn't
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: going to be tall enough to catch it anyway, but
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: you would have had to lean... If you know how
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: the bullpens are in Fenway Park, you would have had
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: to lean... climb up you know on the there's like
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: kind of a fence behind where the bullpens are I
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: was out in the first row of the bleachers you'd
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: have to kind of climb that thing and reach over
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: I thought I was going to be able to catch
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: it it was a game against the White Sox Red
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: Sox secondary catcher Scott Hatterberg hit a home run I
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: think it was like a three run home run right
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: out to where I was and I thought I might
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: be able to catch it I think I was probably
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: like I don't know 10 or 11 years old or
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: something and.
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: I was going to try to do it.
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: I was up there trying to catch it, but I
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: was not going to be able to climb that thing,
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: and it landed in.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: The bullpen, so I wasn't able to get it.
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: I think maybe the closest I was to getting a
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: Major League ball, I think. I'm trying to think if
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: there's been any foul balls that have come closer to me.
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: Maybe. I don't know.
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: In AAA, yes, when my dad and I used to
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: go to the Paw Sox games a lot before they
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: moved to Worcester, the Woo Sox.
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: They used to be in Pawtucket.
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: They've always been kind of a shitty area. Pawtucket, Rhode
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: Island is where the Red Sox Triple-A team used to be.
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: I remember almost getting killed by a line drive. I
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: believe it was from Darren Bragg, if you guys remember
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: that guy. I think it was towards the end of
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: his career, and he was playing in the minors. He
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: was an outfielder in the Red Sox system.
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: I believe it was him.
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: He was a lefty, and I was off on the
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: third base side, but he was way late on a
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: fastball or something and hit it opposite field way foul,
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: and it was lined right at me.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: I don't think I had a glove at that point.
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: I was like, Oh, like I'm not going to be
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: able to catch this. This thing's way too hard. So
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: I had to kind of just duck and it like
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: smashed on the concrete, uh, like wall right behind where
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: my seat was. So like, I almost got my head
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: taken off by Darren Bragg line drive. And I wound
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: up not being able to get the ball either. Cause
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: it ricocheted back and somebody else got it.
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: And I'm like, come on.
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: Like, you know, I wasn't going to break my hand
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: trying to catch that line drive though.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: That thing was a stinger. Like that probably would have
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: broken my hand.
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: Um, that would, that would not have been good, yeah,
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: the Hatterberg home run, that would have been easier to catch,
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: because it was a home run ball, so it was
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: up in the air, and not, you know, a screaming
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: line drive, basically, yeah, shit, I don't know, what's up, man, um, yeah, anyway, um,
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: I'm thinking, I'm like, should I take, because I always
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: take a break about now, should I do it, and
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: then come back and do the college football, yeah, why not,
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: I got a clear my sinuses and stuff. Anyway, I'll
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: be right back. There's some toad ball-catching history for you.
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: Darren Bragg, was he on Atlanta too?
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: I don't remember. Maybe he was.
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I liked him back in the day. Yeah,
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: I just remember the Red Sox had him for quite
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: a while. He played right field usually, if.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: I remember correctly.
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: But, yeah, that was towards the end of his career
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: when he was playing in the minors there when I
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: was there. I got to see some interesting players in
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: some minor league performances, man. Sometimes you'd get, like, injury
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: rehab appearances and stuff like that. So, you know, it'd
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: be like, yeah, yeah, I thought so. Yeah, he played
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: for Atlanta. Yeah, I thought that was the case, yeah. Yeah,
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: and I'm trying to remember because I think I got
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: some autographs from some Paw Sox players. I don't know
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: if any of them really wound.
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: Up actually becoming great.
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: I have had a Berg's autograph, I'm pretty sure, from
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: a Red Sox autograph thing. I got a bunch of
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: Red Sox autographs. Yeah, I think I have him and Veritech.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: I think I got to find that because I got
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: most of them in this program. It was some like,
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: I don't remember what it was. My dad took me
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: to some I don't know, it was some sort of
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: like media event where, I don't know, like a bunch
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: of the players were signing. Like, I don't think it
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: was like the actual, like the absolute top tier players.
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: But I remember like Veritech was one of them. And
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: I don't know, I've gotten some interesting autographs though at
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: some Red Sox games. at that thing, I remember I
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: was hanging out, kind of, out in right field, like, before,
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: I think it was before an actual game, I think,
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: and I was out in right field, like, before the
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: game started, and I got, uh, Ramon Martinez's autograph, because
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: he was in the Red Sox bullpen at the time,
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: he's Pedro Martinez's less heralded brother, um, Ramon Martinez, I
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: got that guy's autograph, um, never got Pedro, I got
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: to see Pedro pitch live multiple times, though, um, Nothing
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: like that, man. You knew they were going to win
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: every time he was on the mound, pretty much. And
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: I got to see the Pedro versus Pavano game. I
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: think the first time they faced off after they got
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: traded for each other against the Montreal Expos. Red Sox
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: won that game handily. But, yeah, I was at that game.
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: Pedro Martinez against Carl Pavano.
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know.
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: I don't think I have much else to say. I
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: got Johnny Pesky's autograph. I think I've told that story
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: on the show before. He used to be in the
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: Red Sox dugout for every game. He was like the
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: Red Sox mascot almost. I mean, well, their mascot's Wally
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: the Green Monster, but you know what I mean. He
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: was like, you know, I don't know what you want
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: to call him, but he would always, even though he
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: was a retired baseball player or whatever, he would sit,
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: and he wasn't actually on the coaching staff, but he
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: would sit in the Red Sox dugout and like pretty
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: much every home game in his old age, but he
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: used to sit behind home plate watching batting practice, and
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: my dad and I were in there early, and we
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: knew that he did that, and we just went over
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: and talked to him, like one of those days where
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: we were really early watching batting practice. He was a
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: really nice guy, and yeah, he signed something. I met
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: him in the game program that day. I forget what
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: it was, but yeah, I got Pesky's autograph on something.
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: I'll have to go find it. The legend, Pesky. Pesky
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: Pole named for him out there in right field, man.
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: I believe because he was a contact hitter and he
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: was able to, like, the only, like, power he was
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: able to hit for was, like, hitting balls, like, off.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Of or around that pole out there.
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: He was more of a speed guy and contact hitter
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: in his day.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: But, yeah, RIP, man, Johnny Pesky. I liked that guy.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: He seemed like a good dude. All right, now I'll
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: be right back. I am going to have a college
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: football play.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back.
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: an 0-7 run over the last two days. After tonight,
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: it was just complete bullshit.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: So that's how I'm going to start off this show.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: Horrible Sunday. 1-5. I don't even know what to tell
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: you about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: I have never seen anything like this.
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: day at all, 0-4, that is.
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: Have not had a good season, man, with weekends. Slump
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man? I
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: know what day it is anymore, man.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Back with you after.
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: The worst day that I could possibly have back with you,
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: as I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday.
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: And yesterday did not go well for me.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: 0-5.
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: years doing this.
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: point other than potentially end it all.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and by the way, the Hatterberg home run story,
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: by the way, to finish that off, because it landed
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: in the bullpen. I think it landed in the Red
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: Sox bullpen, and somebody in the bullpen threw it up
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: into the stands.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Because that's what you do. Whatever.
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: Toss it back into the stands. You know, let a
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: fan get it.
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: But... They threw it up into the stands, and a
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: White Sox fan caught it. And the White Sox fan
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: threw it back into the bullpen because he didn't want
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: a Red Sox home run ball, and everybody booed the guy.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: That's what happened in that situation.
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: All right, I don't know if I've told that story
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: on the show before, but we got five college football games,
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: and my play is in the primetime game, which is
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: kind of an isolated game on ESPN at 7 p.m.
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: You know what I say about these games? The home
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: team usually gets up for these games, man. We saw
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: that happen yesterday. The home team won most of the
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: games yesterday, right? The home team won and covered three
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: out of the four yesterday, too, except UTSA, you could argue,
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: might have been a push. But the only home team
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: that actually lost yesterday was Arkansas State. Now, this is
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: not like something to blindly bet, obviously, but I think
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: the home teams do get up.
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: A little bit.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: More for these big primetime games. Louisville against Florida State here.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: I'm going to be on Louisville in this game. You know,
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: sometimes I have things that I don't expect because I
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: had my eye on Iowa-Washington mostly on tonight's slate, but
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: then I looked at this game and I'm like, this
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: is actually, I think, the better move here is to
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: lay the points with Louisville at minus three and a half,
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: which I think is a low number here.
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: I think Louisville's getting.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: A little bit undervalued now because they're 2-3 right now,
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: whereas Florida State's 3-2. And people might look at that
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: and think, well, why is the team at the worst
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: record favorite?
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: Well, obviously, first of all, they're at home. But secondly,
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: I think they're the better team still.
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: I know Florida State looks like they're improving, and I
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: thought they would. But Louisville, they were supposed to compete
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: for the ACC.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: And they've underperformed so far.
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: And even if you think they're, you know, dead or
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: whatever on the season, I don't really think they are
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: because they look like they're still going out there and competing.
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: This is going to be a game they're going to
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: get up for anyway, because it's an ESPN Friday night game.
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: You know, it's a national TV game. It's against a
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: program that has a good history in Florida State. So
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: you're not going to overlook a game like this if
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: you're Louisville. And if you're Louisville, you're coming off a
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: bad game too. Louisville lost as a road favorite to
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: NC State last week after losing the previous game as
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: a favorite to Wake Forest. So Louisville's coming up back-to-back
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: upset losses. That's not good for them, man. But I
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: think that sets up a nice bounce-back spot for them here.
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: Both teams here have the same rest, I believe. I
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: believe both teams played on Saturday. So both teams are
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: on a short week here between Louisville and Florida State. Louisville,
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: you could make the argument they faced a more difficult
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: schedule because they played Ole Miss.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: That was difficult.
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: Although Florida State, I think, played Alabama, though. But Louisville
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: almost beat Ole Miss. And Louisville beat SMU, whereas Florida
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: State lost those two games to.
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: Florida State lost to SMU, although it was close. And yes,
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: they played okay against Alabama for sure. But Florida State,
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: their other games here, man, beating New Mexico State in
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: Central Arkansas.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, come on, man.
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: That's not that impressive. Whereas Louisville's... Weakest opponent was Villanova,
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: and Villanova's actually a pretty good FCS team. Like, Villanova's
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: definitely better than Central Arkansas. New Mexico State, maybe not,
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: but I don't think New Mexico State's that good.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: So Florida State, yeah, they're 3-2, but.
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: When they stepped up in class, they haven't done that well,
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: and they're coming off a good-looking win over Virginia, where
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: Florida State blew them out 38-7. So you have a
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: Florida State team that's riding a 30-something point win here
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: that looks good because everybody kind of remembers Virginia being
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: good last year, whereas Louisville's coming off an ugly-looking loss
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: to an NC State team that nobody thinks is good,
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: even though I think NC State's still a competitive team.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: I think they're better than people think they are.
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: So I think Louisville's going to get.
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: shit on for another loss like that was Florida State
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: looks awesome right now because they blew up Virginia but
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: if you remember what I told you about that game
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: that was a revenge game because you remember last year
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: Florida State was ranked and undefeated I think early in
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: the season and I gave you guys Virginia on the
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: show at Virginia on a Friday night game and it
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: was crazy multiple overtime game Virginia obviously was going to
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: cover but they actually won the game outright too and
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: Florida State obviously, I think I said Florida, Florida State
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: obviously remembers that loss that they took to Virginia. So
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: that was a revenge spot for Florida State. I think
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: there's no doubt about that. That loss kind of derailed
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: their season last year. Everybody remembers it. So I think
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: Florida State had that Virginia game circled and to pound
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: Virginia like that, I think Florida State's going to be
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: riding a bit of a high here, man. This is
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: only their second road game of the season, by the way.
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: The only other road game they had was against Alabama,
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: and yes, they did play pretty well. They only lost
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: by 14. That's not bad, but the fact remains they're
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: 0-1 on the road.
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: And their next game up, yeah.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: Look at who Florida State's playing next, by the way,
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: which is another ESPN primetime game, although it's a Saturday game.
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: They're playing Miami, man.
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: The top team in the ACC, ranked fourth in the country,
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: although I'm not sure they're quite that good overall. But also,
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: that's a huge rival for Florida State. That's one of
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: their biggest rivals in Miami. Huge in-state rivalry game. This
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: is a sandwich spot for Florida State, man. They're coming
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: off a really emphatic revenge win over Virginia, playing a
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: Louisville team that looks down right now that they might
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: actually look past. And Miami on deck is just a
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: monster look-ahead spot. And Clemson is who they have after that,
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: although they have a bye in between those two games.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: But to me, this looks like the game they're going
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: to overlook, man.
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: Again, I think Louisville may be being undervalued a little
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: bit here because they did have a quarterback injury with Kienholz,
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: but he played last week for the whole game.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: I think he's fine. Fineholz.
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: And he's also not really the focal point of their offense.
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: Their offense, they run the football. Their running back, Isaac Brown,
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: I think is his name.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: Is that his name? I forget.
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: He's really, really good, though. Like, one of the top
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: running backs. This Louisville team, they're still a good team, man.
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: They could definitely compete with anybody, and obviously they're favored
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: here in this game against Louisville.
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: But I think it's kind of a mediocre Florida State team.
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: I think Louisville's the better team, and they're only laying
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: three and a half here. They opened five and a
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: half or six, which that fact worried me because I'm like, well, why.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: Did the line move? Is there a huge injury on Louisville?
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: But not really.
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: It looks like they have a few guys here and
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: there listed as being injured, a couple of guys on defense,
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: one or two offensive linemen, which I know isn't great,
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: but even so, No injury that's going to be like
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: a key injury that moves the line. I have no
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: idea why the line's three and a half when I
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: think five, five and a half would be a more
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: accurate line because I do think Louisville's a couple of
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: points better than Florida State. Florida State's the public side, again, because,
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: oh my God, Florida State looked awesome against Virginia last week, whatever.
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: But like I said, I'm more impressed with Louisville's resume
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: so far.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: I think the fact that there are two and three
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: team laying points to a three and two team is
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: going to mislead people.
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: So the public is on Florida State, due to recency
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: bias and due to what the team's records are, oh,
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: give me Florida plus the points.
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, whatever.
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: 61% of the tickets on them. 70% of the cash
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: on Louisville tells me the real money is on Louisville here.
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: We also have money on the over here, and it's
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: a high total approaching 60, so... That makes it easier
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: for the favorite to cover. So it might be a
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: high-scoring game. I think Louisville is going to be on
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: the winning end of it. We will lay the points
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: with Louisville in what I think is a sandwich spot
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: for Florida State there.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: And the money seems to agree.
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: All right, the next game up, not televised, which seems
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: very weird to me. Number 20, Iowa at Washington. This
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: is going to be somewhere, right? This looks like it
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: would be like a Big Ten Network game. I don't
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: know if Big Ten Network does Friday nights.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know. It shocks me that this game is
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: not listed as being on TV anywhere.
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: You would think maybe ESPN 2 or something, but they
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: have WNBA tonight. Honestly, I have no clue, but this
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: game's got to be on TV somewhere. It's an interesting game.
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: Number 20, Iowa at Washington. The first thing that people
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: are going to notice probably is Washington is favored. at
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: about minus two and a half minus three so the
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: odds makers are kind of telling you this Washington team
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: isn't really that bad and these teams are fairly even
• 46:01
  Speaker 5: power rating wise men like odds makers are basically telling
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: you Iowa's only the slightly better team here the public's
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: going to look at this and they're only going to
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: go one way with it they're going to go with
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: Iowa here because oh my god a ranked team getting
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: points here you know what I always say That should
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: always make your short list when you're handicapping these games,
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: when you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team.
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: The oddsmakers are telling you the rankings makers don't quite
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: have this thing right. And the oddsmakers are the ones
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: that have the money on it. So they're telling you
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: this is a close matchup here. I would listen to them.
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: Washington's getting some amount of home field advantage here. And
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: one big advantage for them would be that Iowa has
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: not left the central time zone yet. Iowa's only road
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: game was against Michigan. And yes, they won that game.
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: But going out to the Pacific Coast for kind of
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: a late game here, you know what I.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: Talk about, the biological clock. I don't think it's a
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: good spot.
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: It's kind of an unfamiliar venue with these West Coast
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: teams now being in the Big Ten. I don't know
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: if Iowa's played in– Iowa may have played in Washington once,
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: like the first year that Washington moved into this conference.
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: But they're not used to doing that.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: Although, yeah, all these teams are kind of used to
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: going to the Pacific Coast now because every team pretty
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: much has to do it like once at least a year.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: It's still not an easy thing to do.
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: Central time zone team going out west to play a
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: late biological clock game. I think that makes this a
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: negative for Iowa. They're coming off a big game against
• 47:24
  Speaker 5: Ohio State. So, yeah, normally I would say, yeah, maybe
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: it's a hangover spot here, and maybe it is. But
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: they got blasted by Ohio State, so that's the thing. Like,
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: a lot of times when a team gets annihilated, they
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: will– kind of have a bounce back in the next game.
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure that's going to happen with Iowa here, though,
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: not only because of the travel that I already talked about,
• 47:41
  Speaker 5: but taking their first loss of the season like that
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: in such a high-profile game, and coming off two huge
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: games against Michigan and Ohio State, Iowa might not have
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: too much left in.
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: The tank here, man. And when you lose your first.
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: When you take your first loss this late into the
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: season like Iowa did, and it's in a game where...
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: You mentally really get prepared for it and step up
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: for it and everybody's hyping the game. And then you
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: just get sent crashing down to earth because Ohio State's
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: better than you.
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? That might send Iowa spiraling
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: a little bit. You know what I mean?
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: So I think that is maybe more of a negative
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: for Iowa as well. I like Washington in this game,
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: but the main problem I have with this, one little
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: bit of an issue would be that I don't love
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: playing against teams that got blown out in their last game.
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: That's not the main issue I have with this. The
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: main issue is what Washington did last week. Washington had
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: a close game against USC last week.
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: That was one of my plays last week.
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: You remember Washington was coming off an ugly, upset loss
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: to Minnesota, who actually looks kind of good right now.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: Washington Then had to turn around.
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: It was their first true road game, but I thought
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: they were going to show up for a game against USC,
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: a familiar opponent from back in the Pac-12 days and whatever.
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: And USC was coming off some sort of big game,
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: I think against Oregon, if I remember correctly. So that
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: was a nice spot to play Washington. And they came
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: within the number for sure. They had chances to possibly
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: win that game. So that was a winner I gave.
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: I think it was my only winner in a bad
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: college football week last week. We won with Washington getting
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: the cover there. But that's why I kind of don't
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: really want Washington here, though, because they're coming off a
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: huge game against USC. where they fell just short as
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: a big underdog and I don't like playing on teams
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: that fell just short as a big underdog although They're
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: probably going to still get up for this, but it's
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: not a TV game, apparently. You know, I talk about
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: Friday TV games, these late-night games that'll pump up the.
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: Home team a little bit more.
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: Maybe it still will. Washington's crowd might be there getting
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: fired up and whatever. Don't know if it's a TV
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: game or not, but I still think that will affect
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: the game a little bit.
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: You know, so, yeah, I like Washington in this game.
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: I just don't really want to get there with it
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: because they are going to have to put in another
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: huge effort just like they did against USC, coming off
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: almost pulling off that upset. I don't quite want to
• 49:59
  Speaker 5: do it, but they're not going to overlook a ranked
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: team coming to their house either. The money is definitely
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: indicating on Washington.
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: I agree with it.
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: Minus two and a half, minus three is the number there.
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: So the public is not going to want to lay
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: points like that.
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? With an unranked team against
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: a ranked.
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: Opponent, 68% of tickets on Iowa, 75% of the cash
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: on Washington. So the money is agreeing with me on
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: Washington here. The other thing about this game, though, is
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: it's a low total. It's 41, 41.5, which is a
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: key number, by the way, 41. Money is coming in
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: on the under in this one. I probably agree with
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: the under. I think you're looking at two offenses that
• 50:36
  Speaker 5: are not really that great and two teams that are
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: definitely pretty good on defense.
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: Iowa's definitely good on defense.
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: And that's, you know, that's another hesitation I would have
• 50:45
  Speaker 5: with laying points like that with Washington is if this
• 50:48
  Speaker 5: is going to be like a defensive slugfest and Iowa
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: might be the slightly better defense, that makes it a
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: little bit more difficult to cover against them as a favorite. Uh,
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: but yeah, I still like Washington here and I think
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: the under is maybe in consideration in this game just
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: because it's looking like it's stylistically, it's more of a
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: defensive battle here between these two teams. So, um, Those
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: are my thoughts on that game. The rest of these games,
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: not really as interesting. We have the CW at 9 p.m.
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: They have a lot of the Pac-12-esque.
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: Games and whatever.
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: I think this is a Pac-12 game. Washington State at
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: Utah State. I don't even know where any of these
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: teams are now conference-wise. Washington State's 1-4, not looking good
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: so far resume-wise. Last week, I thought they'd be able
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: to beat Fresno, and they were not able to do that.
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: This Washington State.
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: Team looks pretty bad, dude. They're 1-4, and so is
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: Utah State.
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: But if you look at the resumes, yeah, Washington State,
• 51:43
  Speaker 5: they played okay at Washington, but that's a rivalry game
• 51:46
  Speaker 5: that they always get up for. And they played okay
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: against Arizona, which was their other kind of big game,
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: although they lost pretty badly to Kansas State coming off
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: that rivalry game, though.
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: But if you look at Utah State's.
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: Resume, they're 1-4, but I talked about them a couple
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: weeks ago when I gave them out as a play.
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: against troy utah state has obviously had the more difficult
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: schedule here they played washington washington to within two points
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: that was a good performance from utah state to bounce
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: back after losing against an fcs team in week one
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: which was not good but they bounced back nicely then
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: they had to play at utah i mean yeah that's
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: a rivalry game that utah state usually gets up for
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: but utah is really really good man so i don't
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: really knock utah state for them then last week they
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: lost at boise I mean, come on, man. Utah State,
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: they've had road games against Washington, Utah, and Boise up
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: to this point. So I think Utah State's a misleading
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: one and four. Like, I don't think they're this bad.
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: And the Osweggers are telling you they're the better team here.
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: They're laying five and a half points now, which has
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: gone up from four. The money seems to be agreeing
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: with Utah State. 57% of tickets, 67% of the cash
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: on them. But like I said, the public... They're going
• 52:53
  Speaker 5: to look at this and think this line is way
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: too high. They're not going to lay points like that
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: with a 1-4 team. But the oddsmakers are telling you
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: kind of what I just told you. Utah State has
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: the more difficult schedule, and they played better against the
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: common opponents.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: Well, I think it was just Washington.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: Sometimes that'll mislead you. You don't want to just look
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: at common opponents and draw the wrong conclusions. But I
• 53:12
  Speaker 5: think it's pretty clear Utah State's.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: The better team here.
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: I don't know when the last time Washington State had
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: to play in high elevation like this was although they
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: probably do it every year because they're in sort of
• 53:24
  Speaker 5: that area of the country where they'd have to play
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: some of the Mountain West-esque teams now this is a
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: Pac-12 battle though but that it's still I don't know
• 53:32
  Speaker 5: a game like this I think still does favor Utah
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: State not only do I think they're the better team
• 53:36
  Speaker 5: but high elevation, getting the game at home on a
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: primetime TV game where I said the home team usually
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: gets up for it more.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: I like the home team again in this one.
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: I would lean to Utah State, but Utah State is
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: coming up with a bigger game against Boise, although they
• 53:49
  Speaker 5: kind of got blown out by Boise. But the fact
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: that that loss looks like a better loss, though. Utah
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: State against Boise, and it is a better loss. Whereas
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: Washington State, that loss to Fresno is just putrid, man.
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: So normally I'd look at that and think, well, that
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: means you want to look towards Washington State here.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: I usually look towards the team that looked uglier in
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: the previous games. I think the public will.
• 54:15
  Speaker 5: be way off that team that's not really the case
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: here in this one I mean the public's not really
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: taking a side in this game too much but yeah
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: I think Utah State is they look like the team
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: that's getting the actual money here and still I think
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: the public will take a look at that and not
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: want to lay points with a 1-4 team like that
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: so I think Utah State is probably the right side
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: that game's also a really low total in the low forties,
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: we have a lot of low totals. The only high
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: total is the Florida state Louisville game, which that game
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: might be an over game, uh, Florida state Louisville. The
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: rest of these games kind of look like they're indicating under, um,
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: you know, this total is 43 and a half 44
• 54:54
  Speaker 5: in Washington state, Utah state.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, you're looking at teams that are pretty bad offensively.
• 54:59
  Speaker 5: Washington state, I think is really bad offensively. So, um,
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: that's another thing. Utah state might be able to cover
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: this anyway, just because Washington state might really struggle to score,
• 55:09
  Speaker 5: but that's kind of a problem. Like I don't love
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: laying point spreads like that with a low total like that.
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: Although I still think that might be the right side,
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: Utah state, but the under might be a look worth
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: a look in that game too. Uh, it might also
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: be worth a look in Wyoming and San Jose state.
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: Cause this Wyoming offense is pretty.
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: Pathetic as well.
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: And I don't know if San Jose states is that
• 55:29
  Speaker 5: great either. This game's on CBS sports. Um, These are
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: Mountain West opponents. I think these teams are both still
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: in the Mountain West, right? Yeah, this is a Mountain
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: West matchup. It remains a Mountain West matchup. San Jose
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: State's in a weird spot, though. Now, I forgot to
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: point out what the rest situation is. I believe Washington
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: State and Utah State both played on Saturday as well.
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: So I think these teams mostly have the same rest
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: scenario here.
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: Let me see.
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I just wanted to make sure of that. But, yeah,
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: I think those teams all played on Saturday. But San
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: Jose State, they played on Saturday, but they were in Hawaii.
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: So San Jose State has a really weird travel spot here. Remember,
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: they're traveling back from Hawaii on a short week. You've
• 56:10
  Speaker 5: got to think that's probably not great. And they went
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: into Hawaii and won that game. And it's not really
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: that easy to go into Hawaii and win just because
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: the travel is really, really weird. So Hawaii tends to
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: win games. a lot of their home games and lose
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: a lot of their games on the road, on the mainland,
• 56:27
  Speaker 5: just because of the travel. San Jose State got the
• 56:30
  Speaker 5: win there. Now they're coming back home, and yes, this
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: is a home game on TV, so usually I like
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: the home team in a spot like this, playing on
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: a primetime game like this. This one, I'm not so...
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: This is the game where I think I like the
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: home team better Well, actually, the BYU game is going
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: to be the game where I like the home team
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: the least to cover the spread, but I don't love
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: San Jose State in this spot either. Returning from Hawaii,
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: I think that's going to be difficult, man. Wyoming's a
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: team that you might overlook. I mean, this Wyoming team does.
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: Not look good.
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: They beat Hawaii as well, though they did it at home.
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: Then last week they got shut out by North Dakota State.
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: But that North Dakota State team, they're pretty good, dude.
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: This is their first year in FBS, so they were
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: an elite FCS team, and they're jumping right into FBS-level
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: football and playing really well. So I'm not going to
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: really knock Wyoming for that loss, but when you get
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: shut out like that, a lot of times you do
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: bounce back from a loss like that. And now, yes,
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: they are having to go to the Pacific Coast from,
• 57:25
  Speaker 5: I believe, the central time zone where North Dakota State is. So, yes,
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: Wyoming is having to travel back out west here. But, again,
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: San Jose State's having to come in from Hawaii, although
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: that is kind of the reverse time zone effect where
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: San Jose State's used to playing even later on their
• 57:41
  Speaker 5: biological clock, basically. Now they're coming back east a bit.
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: So that might be less of a negative for San
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: Jose State for that reason. But still, it's a weird
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: travel spot coming back from Hawaii. I kind of like
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: Wyoming in this one, coming off an ugly– shutout loss
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: there although Wyoming their resume is not good don't get
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: me wrong like their only two wins are against FCS
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: Northern Colorado and against Hawaii who's not that good that
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: was uh in Wyoming too Hawaii's not that good when
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: they're playing on the mainland so yeah Wyoming's resume is
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: definitely unimpressive San Jose State has had the more difficult
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: schedule and have the better resume, just because they played USC.
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: Although, remember, USC took their foot off the gas.
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: In that game at the end, which is why San
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: Jose State was able to kind of make that game
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: look a little bit better than it was.
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: They kind of got dominated in that game, though. But, yeah,
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: San Jose State does have a loss to Fresno, which,
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: you know, maybe that Fresno team, maybe I should give
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: them more credit. I don't know, but I still think
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: they're kind of ass. This game... I have the least
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: opinion on the side in this game though.
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: San Jose State's got 73% of tickets, 94% of the
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: cash on them. I think I would fade them in
• 58:48
  Speaker 5: this game though. They opened six and a half and
• 58:50
  Speaker 5: they're already down to four and a half, four. So
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know if this money percentage is really accurate here.
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: And the market is again indicating towards the under in
• 58:57
  Speaker 5: this game.
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: The total was 44.
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: And it's down to 42 and a half here. So
• 59:02
  Speaker 5: some money's coming on the under here.
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: I might agree.
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think San Jose State is decent defensively
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: they should be able to be pretty good defensively here
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: gets a bad wyoming offense then i think the question
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: just becomes how ugly does this game get like i
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: don't know an ugly low scoring game that probably is
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: going to make it more difficult for a favor it
• 59:22
  Speaker 5: usually makes it more difficult for a favor to cover
• 59:24
  Speaker 5: you know And I don't like the travel spot for
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: San Jose State.
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: Like I said.
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: So I'm going to lean Wyoming in that one, probably
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: towards the under in that game again as well. But, yeah,
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: these are some ugly games here, man. At least Iowa-Washington,
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: if you like good defense, that game might give you that.
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: But these other games that I just talked about look
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: really ugly. And then we have ESPN, the late-night game
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: at 10.15 p.m. Eastern, which might be bad for Iowa
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: State here, having to go to No.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: 8 BYU tonight.
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: Even though I said I don't like BYU in this game,
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: which I'll explain in a minute, I think there's a
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: major reason to not like BYU in this game. Even though, yes,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: it's a home game on ESPN, so I don't really
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: want to fade them here. And there are some negatives
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 5: for Iowa State. Number one, as I was just about
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: to point out, the biological clock spot for a central
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: time zone team having to play a 10.15 p.m.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: Eastern game. That's not that easy.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: You've got to try to adjust your biological clock to
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: playing later. That's not going to be good for Iowa State. Also,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: they have to go into elevation here, into BYU. And
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: if you're not used to that, it's not that easy
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: to do. So those are negatives for Iowa State. However,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 5: I would still lean towards taking the points with Iowa
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: State here for a couple of different reasons. Now, Iowa State,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: they're coming off a game against West Virginia.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: It was a barn burner. It was a close game.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 5: I think Iowa State was a three-point favorite in that game.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: They won by exactly three, but nobody's going to give
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 5: them much credit for beating West Virginia.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: Although West Virginia's looked pretty good this.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 5: Year, so I'd give Iowa State some credit for that.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: That was their best win. I mean, their other games,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: they beat.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: An FCS team in week one or whatever, and then
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 5: they beat Bowling Green. Those are not impressive wins, but
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: Iowa State's resume at this point really doesn't look that bad.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 5: I mean... We expected they'd take a huge hit this
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: year because Matt Campbell left and went to Penn State
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 5: and brought Beck, the quarterback, with him and brought a
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 5: bunch of guys with him. But Iowa State's losses are
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 5: a really close loss at Iowa in the Cyhawk Trophy
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 5: game where we thought, well, you know, Iowa State always
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: gets up for a game like that. But that was
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: still an impressive performance against a strong Iowa team. And
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 5: then Iowa State, you know, they lost by double digits
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: at home to Utah. But that Utah team is real solid, man.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: So those losses are not that bad.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: What we do have to say, though, is that BYU
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 5: is a similar team to Utah, though, and really kind
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 5: of to Iowa as well, although I think BYU's offense
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: is better than Iowa. But BYU and Utah, they're both
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: physical teams that happen to be in the Big 12.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 5: In the Big 12, a lot of these teams struggle
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 5: playing against the more physical teams in the conference because
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: it's more of a finesse conference. But Utah and BYU
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: are both pretty punishing physical teams to have to play against.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: But the good thing is, like I said, Iowa State
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: did play okay, sort of, against both similar teams, Iowa
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: and Utah. So maybe that's a good thing. Although they
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: lost both games, they were within 14 of both of
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 5: those teams, at least. And I think you're asking them
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 5: to just come within double digits here against BYU. So maybe,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: you know, Iowa State can kind of hang around in
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: this game. Now, for BYU, their running back is hurt.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 5: So I would keep that in mind. Running backs are
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 5: kind of plug and play though, so I don't know
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: how much of an effect that will have. But BYU
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: starting running back is injured now, so that might hurt
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: BYU a little bit. BYU is coming up with an
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 5: ugly game at TCU. Remember, I like TCU to cover
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 5: that game, and they should have. TCU actually outgained BYU
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: in that game. BYU had no passing attack at all
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: in that game. To me, that's a red flag, though,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: for BYU. If you can't even throw the ball against
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 5: TCU's defense, I don't think that's good, even though, you know,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: I didn't love the spot for BYU just because I
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: thought it was a weird spot, having to go into TCU,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: you know, their first road game against a power conference team,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: you know, TCU should have covered that. I think the
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: line was six and a half or something, so it's
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: kind of ridiculous that BYU wound up covering that, even
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 5: though they only scored 17 points. BYU didn't look good.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: They couldn't throw the ball, which is bad. That's a
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 5: little bit of a red flag, but the main reason
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 5: why I'd fade BYU here is look at who they're
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 5: playing next, man. They have pretty much their biggest game
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: of the season next. Hosting Notre Dame.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 5: And I believe that is a Saturday game, but it's
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 5: a Saturday night game on ABC, so it might be
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: in the running for being like a game day game.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: It's going to be between two ranked opponents. That's a
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: massive game coming up against Notre Dame. And as I
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: pointed out when we were looking at the schedules, I
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: thought that was the best chance for Notre Dame to
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: take a loss. during the season, having to go into
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: high elevation to BYU. We'll see, but I think BYU
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: might overlook Iowa State here, man, even though I don't
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: really want Iowa State for the reasons I already stated,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: but I'm going to lean Iowa State here in this game.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 5: It's not going to make my card, but I would
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 5: still take the points with Iowa State if I was
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: going to do this. BYU's resume is not good so far, man.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 5: They beat Arizona by 11, and that game was a
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: little bit closer down the stretch. That was at home,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: and then they barely got by TCU on the road,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: and they probably shouldn't have even won that game. That's
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 5: not good. Those are their only two power conference teams
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 5: they've played. So BYU is completely untested. Iowa State has
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: played the more difficult schedule. Iowa State's already played Utah,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 5: and they've already played Iowa. So Iowa State has definitely
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 5: faced the more difficult schedule. There's no question about that.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 5: I think it's a look ahead for BYU. And the
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: other thing to like, if you're going to take the
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: points here, which is 10.5, besides the fact that you'll
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 5: get the key number here on 10, you'll get 10.5
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 5: on this. Public is on BYU, 60% of tickets on them,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 5: 66% of the cash on Iowa State, but it's a
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 5: low total yet again with money coming in on the
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 5: under as well here. If you like the total, the under,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: you missed the boat on that because it opened 47.5.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: 47 is a key number.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: Now you're looking at 45.5, so I'd be less inclined
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: to want to actually play the under in this one,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 5: even though it still might be the right side. This
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: still might be an ugly, low-scoring game here, but BYU.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: They might just kind of want to get in and
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 5: get out of this game with Notre Dame coming up
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 5: next BYU.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: Might be, you know, um, trying to just get in,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: get out, and not run up the score or anything
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: like that here.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 5: They might still not take Iowa State that seriously. Again, BYU,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 5: we'll see what their rushing attack looks like with their
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 5: running back. I think he got injured last week. So
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: we'll see what happens with their star running back hurt. Although, again,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: I think they could probably replace him pretty easily. But
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: their quarterback, Bachmeier, he's going to have to do better.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: That passing attack was pitiful against TCU. And, again, that's
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: not a good sign because TCU's defense is not good,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 5: I don't think.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, that didn't look great. for BYU but again
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: as I was saying it's a low total here man
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: so you know taking a double digit point spread with
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: a low total in the 40s that's usually the better
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: way to go because points are going to be at
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: a premium and that's a huge spread to ask BYU
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: to cover there so yeah I think Iowa State's the
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: right side there I think that's all I got man
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: yeah Selden what's up man 6-7 oh no none of
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: that shit Tower game reunion? I don't know, man.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 5: I'd like to have one. Can we get Top and
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 5: Clint to kiss and make up?
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: I have no idea, man.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: I wish. Thanks for checking out the show, man. Alright,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: that's going to do it for the show. I have
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: two plays today. They're both sandwich spots. We're going to
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: be on the Anaheim Ducks money line in hockey, and
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: we're also laying the points with Louisville, who I think
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 5: is a little bit underrated right now. I think we
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 5: have some misleading records there, and I think they're catching
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 5: Florida State in a sandwich, so Those are my two plays.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure we're never going to get a three
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: on Louisville there, but three and a half in a
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: high-scoring game like that. I mean, yeah, I know it's
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 5: off of the key number, but I don't think the
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 5: three was ever out there on that. Plus, if anything,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: if the number's just kind of staying at three and
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: a half, maybe the oddsmakers are.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: Kind of trying to induce some action on the other side.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: I think Louisville should be favored by like five in
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 5: that game, so that's what I'm going. I think we're
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: getting a little bit of value there. It would be awesome, yes.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: I am not seeing it being something that's actually going
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: to happen, though.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: Thank you, sir.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: No, you're the man for checking out the show. We're
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: losing some subscribers on the show. Learn to tone on
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 5: Twitter and learn to tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 5: the channel here. Get me some subscribers back, man.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: How about that?
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: We're losing subscribers on the show. I don't know. You
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: don't like my content. I'm autistic, whatever, but I'm giving
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: out winners here.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 5: And if you want, you know, my analysis might help
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 5: you think better in a certain way and, you know,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: do your own handicapping, even though when people, you know, will, like,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: throw out their own plays, I get, you know, stubborn
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 5: about it. Like, no, I disagree with that for this reason, whatever.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: But I'm not going to be right about everything. I'm
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: going to miss some things. You know, we're all humans,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: so whatever. I'm ornery, though, and stubborn. But, yes, let's
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: get some more subscribers here.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: Listen on audio.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: We'll see if we get a third Friday spike in
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: a row with the audio numbers. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, go
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: check it out.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: As football.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: You know, returns for the weekend here.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 5: Um, speaking of which, if you subscribe here, you'll, uh,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: get notified when I go live late tonight, I'll have
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: a college football show where I go down the college
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 5: football board. I have, I'm going to have at least
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 5: a few plays probably on tomorrow's slate, still trying to
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: be pretty selective, but I, they're probably going to be
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: at least three plays for me. There's one that I
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: pretty much know definitively is going to be one. And
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: then we'll see what the rest of them look like. Um, yeah,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: I got to, buckle down and actually analyze it all. Because, again,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 5: I didn't expect Louisville to be a play for me
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: until this morning when I looked at the board. I
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 5: was like, oh, shit, yeah, this actually looks pretty good
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 5: as a situational play. So, um you know you never
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 5: really know until you really dig into it so although
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: i have some games where you know i like i
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 5: immediately have an opinion based on oh like i saw
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: this team win last week i'm gonna look to fade
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 5: them you know this upcoming week and if that all
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: checks out you know i'll have a play that i
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 5: was already thinking about making you know there'll be those
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 5: cases as well i've already listed to some of the
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: professionals that I listen to on their shows that they
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 5: do and whatever, talking about some of these games, and
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: the Louisville game was not one that I really heard
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: any of them actually discuss, so that was one that,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: you know, I just looked at it myself this morning.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: I was like, oh, shit, yeah. All right. That's going
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: to do it.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 5: What else do we have? So, yeah, if you subscribe here,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 5: you'll get notified when I go live. Covered in Yooka-Laylee
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 5: channel on YouTube. I finally got up the new covers
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 5: for that. I'm planning on doing some more Halloween-style covers,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 5: you know, just whatever, loosely Halloween-themed songs, which I usually do,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: so try to get a couple more of those up.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 5: I did a few last year. Back when I wasn't
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: uploading everything to YouTube, I was just cranking them out
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: on Twitter, but now that I have to upload them
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 5: in three different places and my voice sucks half the time,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: my uke covers are more sporadic, so I apologize. I
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 5: apologize to the Patreons at patreon.com slash learn2toad because I
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 5: don't really get enough uke content up there for now.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 5: I got to find some other content to do, man.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Live streaming here while watching the games
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: is an option, but we'll see, man. I mean, yeah,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: it's a lot of work. This show alone is a
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: decent amount of work. I don't know. Although it's work, some.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: Of it that I would do anyway to do the
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 5: handicapping and stuff, and then coming on to talk about
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: it for a couple hours, whatever. I was hoping this
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 5: show would be an hour, but I've been rambling a
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 5: little bit.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: What else do we have?
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 5: We have a loser cast as well every Tuesday. And
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 5: I believe that is all I have to plug here.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 5: I appreciate it. Thanks, everybody, for hanging out. Dirty Sock, Garrett, Shit,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know, and Selden, thanks for hanging out, everybody.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: Let's have a good day today. Let's try to go
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: 2-1-0 on this card, man. Peace.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: Let somebody answer.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: Let somebody know you do not have to leave. lose
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: That bad luck fights hard But it don't.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: On You're still here now guitar solo