Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / Is this a war, or a reminder to US and Israel that hubris kills?

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Is this a war, or a reminder to US and Israel that hubris kills? · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

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  Monday, 8 p.m., Dr.
• 1:11
  Mike Colonel Mike, first of the five shows on the National Security Hour.
• 1:14
  And tonight we welcome back Professor James Dorsey, who's out there in Southeast Asia.
• 1:21
  James, welcome back.
• 1:23
  Always a pleasure to be with you, Mike.
• 1:25
  Thank you for having me.
• 1:28
  James, a lot has gone on since you've been back with us, what, a couple of weeks ago?
• 1:33
  Um, and you just wrote recently a substack that was really good last week, but again, this is so fluid, it's almost daily or hourly.
• 1:41
  Why don't you give us an update?
• 1:43
  Uh there's there's a lot of rumor to desalinization plants.
• 1:47
  And before we went on recording, you said that's not on the table yet.
• 1:51
  So why don't you open it up for us and thank you for coming back?
• 1:55
  Sure.
• 1:56
  Uh all of this falls into the context of um Donald Trump's declaration that he is in negotiations with the Iranians and believes that a um an agreement is possible, and on that basis that he would uh postpone his deadline for U.S.
• 2:16
  attacks on power plants in Iran if Iran were not to open the Straits of Hamoose fully within a period of 48 hours.
• 2:25
  The issue of the um water desalination plants, what it comes down to is this.
• 2:32
  Early in the war, water desalination plants were very briefly in the picture.
• 2:38
  That is to say the Iranians claimed that there had been an attack on a desalination plant of theirs on an Iranian island, and in response, there was a uh an attack on a similar plant in Bahrain.
• 2:52
  There's been nothing since uh with regard to water desalination plants.
• 2:57
  Uh they've in the last 24 hours have re-entered the um the debate because the Iranians have said that if their power plants were attacked, they would be attacking uh similar plants in the Gulf states, and that could affect uh water desalination plants.
• 3:20
  So that's where where you are, but I think the larger picture here is that I would be very cautious, and we can discuss this in detail, but I would be very cautious about the prospects of an agreement between the United States and Iran.
• 3:36
  Obviously, it's a positive sign that there's some sort of contact, even though that really is exchanging messages between um Iran and the United States, and I think that Trump, for one, but many others are reading for perhaps too much into that.
• 3:57
  Dr.
• 3:58
  Mike.
• 3:59
  I think I think that's that's correct.
• 4:02
  Uh the uh the problem we have is that it seems to me that we're about played out in terms of military ordnance reserves, our ability to control what the Israelis do.
• 4:19
  Um I listened to this morning uh uh uh about three or four hours ago, a discussion that the Iranians have said in one way or another, and I'm not sure what what the veracity of the thing is, but uh they're threatening to hit uh the the uh desalinization um plants on U.S.
• 4:44
  bases, as well as um uh desalin, what's the other one?
• 4:52
  Water or no, not water, uh desalinization and something else.
• 4:56
  Anyway, to not focus on anything in the emirates uh that belongs strictly to them, but the things that supply America Americans with electricity and water.
• 5:10
  And uh they said that the Iranians have it all mapped out.
• 5:14
  Uh it's it's been planned, and they didn't know if they were going to use it or not.
• 5:18
  So um if that if that goes, uh, according to the they had a military officer talking, uh former military officer.
• 5:28
  If if that goes on and they're successful or even partially successful, it really makes the American presence in uh the area in the region problematic.
• 5:44
  And uh I I throw that in for what it's worth.
• 5:48
  It's just uh uh uh single report.
• 5:51
  But um the other thing they added was that and some of the countries in the emirate and the emirates are in the in the region.
• 6:00
  Um the American system for electricity and fresh water is tied into the local system, so there could be some uh sure to be some uh public disruption also.
• 6:12
  So I I don't know where we go from here.
• 6:14
  I think I think the ultimate admission that we have not many places to go is the dispatch of 2500 marines to take on 90 million uh uh Iranians.
• 6:26
  It's uh it's kind of a desperation thing, I it seems to me, but uh it all may work out, but it just doesn't seem likely.
• 6:36
  I don't think it's 90 million Iranians, Mike.
• 6:39
  I think on a second, James, hang on a second.
• 6:43
  Mike, I don't think it's 90 million Iranians.
• 6:46
  I think it's uh uh uh you know, probably the IRGC or or the Iranian command.
• 6:51
  I mean, if you had all those people in.
• 6:54
  But uh, you know, to take on their military with 2500 and what they have in equipment, that's a whole different thing than 90.
• 7:01
  Go ahead, James.
• 7:02
  I'm sorry.
• 7:03
  Yeah, before we get into a broader discussion, just to to clarify some things.
• 7:08
  The Iranian energy minister spelled it out very clearly today.
• 7:13
  And what he said was Iran has 150 power plants, and keep in mind that this is a country of 1.6 square million kilometers, and that whereas the Gulf states, so with other words, its power grid is decentralized, whereas the power grid in the Gulf states is centralized.
• 7:37
  And so all you need to do is take out one power plant in one of these countries, Saudi Arabia probably being the exception, but in the smaller Gulf countries, and you've inflicted enormous pain and damage.
• 7:51
  Whereas in uh Iran, that would take much more.
• 7:55
  And yes, uh obviously the um the facilities on on U.S.
• 8:00
  bases are tied into the local grid and the local uh uh water system.
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  So if you take out the central system, that will affect uh the U.S.
• 8:11
  bases too.
• 8:16
  Mike?
• 8:17
  In short, I think what that means is they gotta spare the short hairs.
• 8:24
  Yeah, but I think we you know we I think we need to talk about you know what what is really going on in terms of uh an effort to end this war.
• 8:36
  Uh and uh what happens if the war, if the those talks, indirect talks fail.
• 8:46
  Um I think that's really the the question that what do we have going on, James?
• 8:53
  That's a good question.
• 8:54
  What do we have going on indirectly?
• 8:57
  And do we know who's indirectly going on and these talks going on with these talks?
• 9:02
  And uh, and yeah, then we could touch on what happens if it fails.
• 9:06
  And we hope.
• 9:07
  Well, my reading is uh my reading is if you look at the start by looking at the truth social posting that Trump did, in which he uh uh disclosed these talks.
• 9:20
  The conclusion that I drew from that one was that there is no agreement on anything substantial.
• 9:28
  Trump based this on quote the tenor and the tone of the exchanges that had taken place.
• 9:37
  And then if you go to his remarks, particularly at an airport in Florida on Monday, just after he posted uh on Truth Social when he was traveling to Memphis, Tennessee.
• 9:52
  My take from that was that he is totally misreading the situation, miscalculated.
• 10:00
  Calculating and has no understanding whatsoever of Iran.
• 10:06
  What he basically said was that he expected Iran to accept his conditions.
• 10:16
  He focused on nuclear.
• 10:18
  He barely mentioned ballistic missiles.
• 10:25
  He talked about the major issue on nuclear being the 440 highly enriched kilograms of uranium that the Iranians have.
• 10:39
  Uh had the illusion that once you have an agreement with Iran that United States troops personnel could go in and retrieve those uh 440 kilograms.
• 10:51
  He also had the illusion that there would be some joint um Iranian control of the Strait of Hermuz.
• 11:02
  Said it would be him and the Ayatollah, whoever that may be, would be uh managing the Strait of Hermuz.
• 11:09
  And he he envisioned he said he was talking to interlocutors, Iranian interlocutors whom he did not identify, but who were highly credible and respected, and essentially would uh turn Iran into another Venezuela.
• 11:27
  As far as I'm concerned, that's pie in the sky.
• 11:31
  That is to say that is not to say that there could be an agreement, but it's not an agreement as he envisions that.
• 11:42
  It's not going to be on those terms.
• 11:45
  And uh it's not gonna be an Iranian Venezuela by any stretch of the imagination.
• 11:52
  On the contrary, I think that the focal point of the war at this point is the Strait of Homo's.
• 12:01
  Um, and Trump doesn't have any good options.
• 12:06
  His only option is if these talks fail, that uh he expands the war.
• 12:14
  And then he has there are various options, various military options in terms of how uh how we would try to either rest control of the um of the strait from Iran, or in any case, be in a position to have a great degree of influence on what goes through the uh the straits.
• 12:36
  But we'll have to wait and see what happens with these talks first.
• 12:40
  All right, so we're on with Dr.
• 12:42
  James Dorsey, who has the Middle East report on Substack, and you gotta want to get on that one because that's a daily, and sometimes a couple times, but it's uh it's very well done, and it has a lot of things there, and uh we're coming up on the uh break.
• 12:57
  This boy, this first segment went so quick.
• 13:00
  Yeah, I don't think um, I think maybe Trump should read his own book, man, the order of the deal, because so far he doesn't have any art, and there's no deal.
• 13:09
  You know, the only art he may have is what's hanging in the uh the oval office right now.
• 13:14
  And uh the people around him.
• 13:16
  Also, James, you know, I'm not really into this doing foreign diplomacy on truth social or X or whatever else is out there, you know.
• 13:25
  Um it comes to this kind of thing.
• 13:27
  Uh, you know, I'm I'm more of the old school uh close the door, backdoor channel, love rough uh type of thing where you know nobody knows what's going on until we know what's going on.
• 13:40
  You know what I mean?
• 13:40
  It's just this is almost like a high school, you know, a high school uh schoolyard, the way it goes on in the a lot of this is backdoor.
• 13:52
  I mean, it's you know, it's the Iran, it's the Turks, it's the Pakistanis, the Egyptians, the Omanis, who are uh basically uh messenger boys sending messages back and forth.
• 14:04
  Uh and what Trump did on uh on social uh on Truth Social was essentially announce it.
• 14:12
  And well, are the packies in this?
• 14:14
  I heard what is it two days ago somebody said to me that the packies may be the ones to to close the deal.
• 14:20
  I don't know if it's true or not, but somebody mentioned that two days ago.
• 14:24
  Look, I don't think, first of all, I don't uh yes, the Pakistanis are in it, and the Pakistanis are in a particularly difficult situation.
• 14:33
  First of all, they have a 909-kilometer long border with Iran, which is a very restive border.
• 14:44
  It's got two pro it's got a Balochi province on the Iranian side, it's got a Balochi province on the uh Pakistani side.
• 14:56
  In both provinces, there are uh nationalist militants who at times have been supported by the United States.
• 15:06
  Uh and on top of that, it has not only a long-standing military relationship with uh Saudi Arabia, since last year it has a mutual defense agreement.
• 15:19
  Yes.
• 15:20
  That essentially has uh the equivalent of NATO's Article 5.
• 15:26
  In other words, one the attack on one, an attack on one is an attack on the other.
• 15:33
  Uh so if you were to graduate to a situation, and that's not impossible, uh, should the talks fail, in which Saudi Arabia, possibly the or and and and the UAE decide that uh that their defensive posture, with other words, intercepting missiles and drones isn't good enough that they have to start retaliating, depending on what form that retaliation takes.
• 16:03
  Pakistan would be legally bound by the treaty to come to Saudi Arabia's aid.
• 16:10
  And let's not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear-armed uh country.
• 16:15
  Took the words right out of my mouth.
• 16:17
  I was just about to say that.
• 16:18
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• 16:53
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• 19:53
  All right, welcome back.
• 19:54
  We're on the second segment of Dr.
• 19:56
  James Dorsey live in Thailand.
• 19:59
  Dr.
• 19:59
  Mike.
• 20:00
  Colonel Mike in the Shenandoah Valley where spring was just coming, and then we had two days of summer, and we're back to a late autumn kind of weather, I would say.
• 20:10
  Let's continue.
• 20:11
  James, now you wrote a few things last week, and you'll you write really well, and you have like a great one of the great subsects on what's going on in the region.
• 20:20
  Yeah, why don't you take something from the sub stack and share it with our audience if they're not uh uh subscribe to it, you know, they may want to subscribe to it.
• 20:29
  Go ahead.
• 20:30
  Well, let me uh let me point to two things.
• 20:34
  Uh first of all, as we were talking about uh the potential for uh an agreement between the United States and Iran.
• 20:42
  That's a double-edged sword uh for the uh for the Gulf.
• 20:48
  On the one hand, obviously they they want an end to the to the war, they want an end to the uh Iranian attacks, which have um jeopardized their economic and um uh their uh economic diversification and development plans, it's shattered the Gulf's reputation as a stable island and a secure island, which was key to those plans, but also key to their positioning as uh a hub for not only transport, uh look at their airlines finance, but also for data centers.
• 21:28
  Um the other hand, what they're concerned about is that an agreement will leave in place an Iranian government that is on the one hand, of course uh significantly weakened, but has maintained regime cohesion and could be angry, vengeful, and therefore continue to pose uh uh a more imminent threat.
• 21:57
  And so that's one part of the the um the equation.
• 22:01
  The other part of the equation is what I mentioned in the in the first segment, that if this continues, with other words, if the war continues, then um you could see the Saudis, the Emirates getting engaged uh offensively.
• 22:21
  Now, that for the Iranians would constitute a paradigm shift, because the Iranians basically believe that they're on the winning hand.
• 22:33
  The fact that Trump wants to talk, even though he claims it's the Iranians who want to talk, uh, the easing of sanctions on oil that has already been loaded onto tankers that are that are at sea.
• 22:51
  Uh is as far as the Iranians are concerned, evidence that their strategy of increasing the pain on Israel, on the Gulf states, on the global energy market, on international trade, will eventually uh generate the kind of pressure on Trump in which he is forced to back down.
• 23:17
  If the Gulf states get engaged militarily in this conflict and offensively, then that uh that strategy is undermined, because obviously the Gulf states at that point will not be pressuring the United States to immediately end the war.
• 23:35
  On the contrary, uh I think that's one aspect of it.
• 23:40
  A second aspect of it is what happens if uh the talks fail.
• 23:47
  I think at that point Trump has no choice but to try and wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from uh from the Iranians.
• 23:59
  Um Mike earlier mentioned uh it would be 2,500 Marines against 90 million people.
• 24:07
  Um that that in whatever form could be true if the United States were to opt for the most risky strategy towards the Strait of Hamoose, which would be trying to take control of the Iranian shoreline along the strait.
• 24:26
  Um the other more realistic option, I think, in that, and for that they don't really need um uh that many troops were to take control of islands at the mouth of the Strait of Homoose, particularly three islands, which were occupied by not by this government, but by the Shah in 1971, and are claimed by the United Arab Emirates.
• 24:56
  Uh and that those islands would be far easier to um to defend.
• 25:01
  And a subversion of that could be that it's the United Arab Emirates who reclaimed territory that they have long felt is theirs, backed up by U.S.
• 25:13
  troops.
• 25:14
  Um the other the other uh longer term uh thing I think to keep in mind is whether or not this leads to a nuke, all of this leads over time to a nuclear Middle East.
• 25:29
  In other words, that countries that on the one hand, the Iranians may very, you know, there's long there's been a debate for some time in Iran on whether or not uh they should go nuclear simply as a form of deterrence.
• 25:46
  And obviously, they have far less deterrence today uh as a result of uh the severe damage inflicted on their military facilities by the United States and Israel, and of course, by uh the fact that their um non-state allies, particularly Hezbollah, um have been severely weakened, even though Hezbolla is performing in the in the war in Lebanon today.
• 26:19
  Uh and so on the one hand, there's that thinking in Iran, but there's similar thinking going on in, for example, in Saudi Arabia.
• 26:30
  Uh and that becomes more relevant.
• 26:34
  Whatever happened, or let me put it this way whatever happens once the guns fall silent in this war, uh, it's going to change or have an impact on the regional security architecture.
• 26:49
  I think on the one hand, you're gonna see tighter relations with the United States, uh security relations, even though just or despite the fact that the United States is perceived as unreliable, and despite the fact that the presence of um U.S.
• 27:10
  forces in the Gulf has proven to be as much of an asset as it is a liability.
• 27:16
  The Gulf states don't have an alternative, they have no other options, but you are going to see a diver some degree of diversification of security relationships.
• 27:27
  You're also going to see a greater emphasis on regional collective arrangements and efforts at greater self-reliance, and then a nuclear deterrence would fit into that perfectly well.
• 27:42
  Go ahead, Dr.
• 27:43
  Mike.
• 27:44
  James, what do you think about popular views among uh whether Sunnis or Shias?
• 27:53
  Of the fact that they've they clearly have the Israelis in a very tough spot, and they're hurting them badly.
• 28:02
  Is there is there not a tendency to think, why don't we finish these people off?
• 28:09
  Uh after 50 years of of this.
• 28:12
  I I don't know the answer to it myself, but I just it it it seems to me that it's an opportunity that many will consider uh golden opportunity.
• 28:23
  Uh when you say finish them off, we're talking about Iran, correct?
• 28:27
  Right.
• 28:28
  No, I'm talking about Israel, sir.
• 28:31
  Oh, okay.
• 28:32
  In the Arab world, is there not uh uh um would there not be speculatively an idea that we've never gotten this far, we've been kicked and assassinated in all these things for all these years.
• 28:48
  Why not finish it off if we can?
• 28:51
  Well, let's first of all, before I before I go to turn to Israel, there's some thinking in the Gulf with regard to Iran.
• 29:00
  In fact, you have uh intellectuals, people like Abdul Khalik Abdallah in the United Arab Emirates, who in recent days said was asked what he would say to um President Trump, and he's someone who reflects government thinking in the UAE, and his response was finish them off, Mr.
• 29:24
  President.
• 29:25
  Let's get rid of this kind of regime.
• 29:28
  So there is that kind of thinking towards Iran.
• 29:31
  Uh, I don't I think, yes, I mean, there are people in in the Gulf who would love to see Israel finished off.
• 29:39
  First of all, I don't think that the Gulf estimate is that Israel is on the ropes by any stretch of the imagination, and I think that's an correct assessment.
• 29:49
  I think there's a greater assessment of Israel being as much a threat to the stability of the region as is Iran.
• 30:00
  Oh, without a doubt.
• 30:02
  But in both cases, in both cases, there are threats with which the Gulf states believe they have no choice but to live with.
• 30:12
  You know, they're not going to jeopard.
• 30:15
  I don't think that they see any realistic possibility of finishing off Israel in the way that theoretically you could finish off Iran to use those words.
• 30:30
  But you know, and and Israel still has a lot to offer them to militarily, technology on multiple uh surveillance on multiple fronts.
• 30:44
  And that's something they still certainly the UAE is taking advantage of and others would like to do so too.
• 30:53
  Well, doesn't Israel have on the table, uh James, the IMAC, the India Middle East uh cooperation agreement to run uh from the Middle East uh to Israel to India.
• 31:06
  I mean, that's that's that's on paper.
• 31:09
  Yeah.
• 31:10
  That you know, yeah, that's on paper.
• 31:13
  Is that to circumvent the belt and road, or just make another another belt and road?
• 31:18
  No, I don't think it has anything to do with circumventing the belt of road, uh, as much more uh integration that would work in their favor.
• 31:30
  Um you know, the the Gulf states are part of the Belt and Road, they don't have a problem with that, right?
• 31:38
  Uh and is a matter of principle, the only aspect of the of the Belt and Road that is problematic, and in some ways, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out as a result of the Iran War was technology cooperation with China, which the major Gulf states, with other words, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Gutter had essentially uh uh abandoned when they decided that artificial intelligence technology they were gonna go with the United States.
• 32:15
  And let's keep in mind that when Trump visited um the Middle East in um May of last year.
• 32:26
  He he went back home with 3.6 trillion dollars in place.
• 32:32
  Yes, over four or five years, yes.
• 32:35
  You know, that's an incredible amount.
• 32:40
  Um and and and and you know, that was based on the on the Gulf states having chosen the United States rather than China as their major technology partner.
• 32:52
  Yeah, that was that was uh big tech and and and medical over I think a period of three to four years investment.
• 32:58
  I I know someone that was on that entourage.
• 33:02
  Um some of those agreements were over 10 years, somewhere over the list, but nonetheless, irrespective of that, that's a you know, those are uh highly unusual uh sizes of investment pledges, yes, in an industry, and I think one of the issues is that the Gulf states also believe that that would buy them a degree of leverage.
• 33:32
  But when it came to pressuring Trump not to engage in this war, it didn't really amount to much.
• 33:44
  Yep.
• 33:44
  Well, it's a wait and see at this point.
• 33:47
  Go ahead, Mike.
• 33:49
  Yeah, it's a way it's a wait and see, and uh it's also a political issue.
• 33:53
  Uh Trump is going to have to make up his mind about the can he take the mid midterms with this war continuing over the summer, or does he have to do something that he doesn't want to do?
• 34:06
  But in terms of political survival, must do.
• 34:08
  I I and I don't know the answer to that.
• 34:11
  I still think there's a lot of Americans who you know don't like what Trump has de how he has deviated from what he promised.
• 34:19
  But to look at the other side and think you're gonna jump over and vote for them as a as a replacement is also hard to rationalize.
• 34:28
  Um Trump's fundamental problem is that he needs to demonstrate both to the American public, but also to the international community, that this war was a victory.
• 34:45
  Now the Iranians are going to define victory as survival of uh uh of the Islamic Republic.
• 34:54
  Exactly.
• 34:55
  And in many, and in many ways, they're not wrong about that.
• 34:58
  On the other hand, for you know, nuclear is not going to be a undisputed victory, given that Trump declared in, you know, has declared for the last uh eight or nine months, whatever it is, uh since the 12-day war last year with Iran, that he had obliterated the nuclear program.
• 35:23
  So it's hard to defend this war as having eliminated the um the nuclear program.
• 35:32
  Uh the same is true for ballistic missiles.
• 35:36
  No doubt Israel and the United States have severely damaged um Iran's production capabilities, reduced its stockpiles, but Iran still is, despite Trump's uh uh uh claims is still firing missiles and uh drones at Israel and the Gulf states, and we don't really know to what degree those production facilities and stockpiles have been damaged or destroyed.
• 36:07
  Well, I think it was public information, James, to uh two years ago.
• 36:11
  I think it was public information about two years ago, they set up some kind of cooperation with Tajikistan to build, I think, uh armaments and ordinance in that country.
• 36:23
  Yeah, that's correct.
• 36:24
  That's correct.
• 36:25
  So ballistic missiles isn't an undisputed uh victory.
• 36:31
  We have we're not gonna see regime change.
• 36:35
  Uh we're not gonna see Venezuela.
• 36:39
  So the only thing that really um is has the potential of uh of being a credible declaration of victory, even though the problem was caused by the war in the first place, is the Strait of Hermuz.
• 36:57
  That's it, it's international economy, and as Clinton said, or was it George Bush?
• 37:02
  Are you better off than you were last year?
• 37:04
  You know, it's all about the economy, and we don't have a great economy here, and I'm sure it's you know, not that great in Thailand and other parts of the world.
• 37:12
  Wow, this this segment went by so fast.
• 37:16
  We're gonna take the two-minute break for the commercial, and then we're gonna come back for the final segment with Dr.
• 37:22
  James Dorsey live with us, and we thank him for coming back on.
• 37:26
  Interesting conversation so far, gentlemen.
• 37:29
  And uh, I think that's in the bottom line, it's all gonna reflect on what some people call fossil fuels, and what others call crude oil.
• 37:40
  And uh right now, a lot of that stuff is moving around Africa, the reselling, the refueling.
• 37:45
  So, but we can't do that forever because they're not built for it yet, and we'll still have to deal with Hormuz and the Houthis and the Saudis and everyone else.
• 37:55
  We'd be back in two minutes.
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• 39:25
  All right, welcome back to the final segment.
• 39:28
  You're on with Dr.
• 39:29
  Michael Shoy, 8 p.m.
• 39:30
  Monday with Colonel Mike on the National Security Hour, every Monday, 8 p.m.
• 39:34
  Eastern time.
• 39:35
  And this is our final segment with Dr.
• 39:37
  James Dorsey live with us.
• 39:40
  He's live in Thailand.
• 39:42
  All right, who would like to go first, gentlemen?
• 39:43
  Dr.
• 39:44
  Mike or James, go ahead.
• 39:46
  I'll let Mike go first.
• 39:48
  Thank you, sir.
• 39:49
  I I just don't see this coming out clean.
• 39:57
  Clean enough to say the Americans got.
• 40:00
  Their way clean enough to um uh instill instill fear in in anybody for uh if there is a deal for crossing that deal, it's this is a situation where we have made most things impossible.
• 40:19
  And you the one thing you hit not well, the only most things you say are very uh very very good and very uh true.
• 40:29
  But we're we're watching what what happens when your diplomatic capacity dies.
• 40:36
  Uh we sent the same clowns to deal with uh Putin over um uh Ukraine, and now we've sent them to uh and and obviously in Iran they're gonna they're gonna believe, I think, that these guys are uh reporting to Netanyahu as much as they are to Trump.
• 40:59
  So I don't I just don't uh see an end to it.
• 41:04
  We've expended uh we've demonstrated the power we have, and it's still not enough.
• 41:11
  And uh I think to take on any country, the size of Iran in an effort to break it, you need land forces.
• 41:25
  And we don't have them.
• 41:29
  And and I think there's a sorry, go ahead, sir.
• 41:34
  Please.
• 41:35
  I I think there's a more fundamental problem, which is Trump has changed U.S.
• 41:42
  foreign policy.
• 41:44
  And the U.S.
• 41:46
  foreign policy today operates on the uh principle of might of might is right.
• 41:52
  And if you marshal an Armada have a tremendous display of American military power, things happen.
• 42:01
  And that worked in Venezuela, it worked in Panama, it worked to a degree in Greenland, and the Iranians, whether one likes them or not, are the first ones to stand up and say we don't care.
• 42:17
  We're not intimidated.
• 42:19
  And you know, if this means war, so be it.
• 42:23
  Not what we want, but so be it.
• 42:25
  Yes, the second the second fundamental problem is that you know, three weeks into the Iran war, Trump has not realized or uh continues to overestimate his um ability to impose his will on others and to over to overestimate the ability of the United States to um uh to uh impose its will on others.
• 42:57
  What suck what Trump successfully has done until now, or until yeah, until the war, uh, is that he's also in some ways changed the nature of international relations.
• 43:10
  He's put himself at the center of the web, and countries try to avoid getting on his bad side and try to get on his good side to earn brownies.
• 43:24
  And the first time that you really had a revolt against that was with the Europeans, the Japanese, and the South Koreans, fundamentally saying rejecting his demand that they join uh the United States in uh ensuring free passage through the Strait of Hamoose.
• 43:43
  Right.
• 43:44
  And what I saw in uh particularly in his remarks immediately after his truth social posting regarding talks with Iran, that same overestimation uh was still the operating is operating principle.
• 44:03
  Yes.
• 44:04
  And I think that's what sets um the United States up for failure.
• 44:09
  Yeah.
• 44:10
  James, I think that uh what I what I would call it is we we live in the uh the cult of World War II is especially Trump.
• 44:20
  The demonstration of that armada ought to be enough in their minds to make everyone quiver and shake.
• 44:30
  Steve Whitkoff on the eve of the uh of the of the war said as much.
• 44:35
  He said that Trump was curious that Iran with the marshaling of the armada had not capitulated.
• 44:45
  Well, I I think it goes on I think it goes on well past Trump, though.
• 44:49
  It goes on to past presidents, it goes on to their the military uh command structure.
• 44:55
  Um it is it is a uh it's it's almost a demented kind of of world view that because for past presidents republican or democratic were more realistic about it.
• 45:13
  Right, right.
• 45:14
  They had less they had less hubris.
• 45:17
  Perhaps the tail end of the cult, but they they had a greater degree of of self-reflection, yeah.
• 45:24
  None of which Trump has.
• 45:25
  He seems not to.
• 45:28
  And you know, and they I think that's the fundamental issue.
• 45:32
  Yeah, it's where it's where personalities count well, the one the one place where unfortunately, I think the cult of World War II is is still very strong, is among the populist, in the sense that once we're committed and our our troops are in uh danger, it becomes increasingly easy to manipulate them.
• 46:02
  We haven't heard, for example, any really loud demands to know how many Americans have gotten killed or wounded so far.
• 46:11
  They've in the whole time that um Ukraine has been going on, there's been no demand to know how many Americans have been killed, wounded, captured by the Russians.
• 46:24
  And uh it's an odd situation to me.
• 46:29
  Uh and we know both in both cases we have had significant casualties.
• 46:35
  And yet, I don't know.
• 46:37
  I'm sorry.
• 46:39
  I don't know, I don't know that that's uniquely American.
• 46:42
  Uh maybe not, sir.
• 46:44
  Maybe not.
• 46:45
  In times of war, you see a lot of rallying around the flag.
• 46:50
  To some degree, you see that in Iran.
• 46:53
  I mean, you know, while a majority of Iranians want change, not necessarily regime change, but they want certainly want change, you also have a significant amount of the population that doesn't that not to say that there aren't those that do want it, but a significant segment of the population that doesn't want to see change on the back of Israeli and U.S.
• 47:19
  fighter planes.
• 47:21
  Well, that's exactly right.
• 47:24
  But in what I uh there's all these situations that that come up, and you wonder how the people you respect, the people who are also Americans, we have not won a war since 1945.
• 47:36
  Why do any why does anyone think that this military establishment can develop can deliver victory without nuclear weapons?
• 47:49
  There's there's no reason for anybody to be surprised, I think, with what happened here, unless we had a tremendous intelligence failure and we didn't know the extent and capabilities of the Iranian missile program, and I don't know the answer to that one.
• 48:05
  But to expect the American military to win anything, except you know, a side show like Venezuela is is a big is a big uh leap of faith at the moment.
• 48:19
  Let me ask James this question, Mike.
• 48:21
  So James, what kind of feedback you have?
• 48:24
  All right, they said the Israelis, meaning the Israelis, they said they had embedded Mossad agents for years inside Iran uh that were at pretty much in a high level, and they might have been there for many years, they might have grew up there, we don't know.
• 48:39
  But how is it that they didn't know that they had these capabilities to run these drones that they were running that everybody was surprised about, supposedly, right?
• 48:49
  And uh, you know, is that a reality?
• 48:52
  Did they have the people in there?
• 48:54
  They did if they did, they didn't share the intel with the uh American Intel community, because everybody out here seems kind of shocked that you know the Iranians had the capabilities to do the damage that they did, and also I would just finalize it by saying uh I don't think Israel thought that what happened to them in the last couple of weeks would happen to them, you know, their military capability, but also to defend themselves.
• 49:22
  I think Iran penetrated pretty well, and you'd agree they hit some cities in in Israel and did some damage.
• 49:29
  But did they really have that many Mossad agents and did they keep the intel from America?
• 49:34
  Remember, we always have this cat and dog or cat fight between the CIA, the Pentagon, the FBI, and the Mossad in America.
• 49:46
  I would think I would beg to disagree with you down the line.
• 49:52
  Um first of all, um the Israelis in intelligence terms have
• 50:00
  Penetrated Iran significantly.
• 50:03
  And they've done so for a long time.
• 50:07
  They uh I mean the killings of nuclear scientists over the years, uh the capture of those uh huge amount of nuclear related documents that they transported back to Israel.
• 50:22
  Yes.
• 50:23
  Uh the killings that you've seen during the war, um all of that demonstrates significant Israeli penetration.
• 50:32
  So how is it that we didn't know about these drones?
• 50:35
  Yeah.
• 50:36
  Let me let me just uh continue, if I may.
• 50:39
  Um and and the same is true for Hezbollah.
• 50:42
  Where I think the problem lies is uh on the uh both on the Israeli side and the US side.
• 50:50
  On the Israeli side, there you know, having the penetration and understanding what you're seeing are two different things.
• 51:02
  And I think that that's where um and you know, go back to um the 1970, or the run-up to the 1979 revolution in Iran.
• 51:12
  The same was true for the United States.
• 51:15
  Uh the information was there, but the political understanding, the understanding of it was not.
• 51:23
  Uh, and even if it if the understanding was there among the intelligence analysts and others, uh the polit that was not necessarily what the political level wanted to hear.
• 51:38
  Um in the case in this in the case of the Iran War, um Israeli intelligence actually got it wrong in terms of understanding what this all would entail, and um basically misadvised um Netanyahu.
• 52:00
  And he went with that farty advice to Trump.
• 52:06
  Uh on top of which I think that Trump wanted to believe what he believed, irrespective of what he was being told, not only by the Israelis, but by his own intelligence service or services, as well as the military.
• 52:23
  So this is really not so much of intelligence failure, although the as I mentioned, the Israeli intelligence got it wrong in terms of the understanding.
• 52:33
  It's a political failure.
• 52:38
  Sounds good to me.
• 52:40
  Go ahead, Mike.
• 52:41
  Yeah, I think it is it's a it's a it's a monumental failure in a lot of different directions.
• 52:47
  And I could just speaking from being in the uh intelligence community for a long time, uh there's not a real effort to understand foreign countries in the way to insist on analysts and operators understanding a foreign country to the maximum amount, and then using that in explaining to policymakers what they're facing.
• 53:16
  The the the real crux of learning in the uh American, much of the American intelligence community is knowing what not to say, even if you believe it.
• 53:34
  Because it racks the boat and it makes uh political leaders mad and it endangers budgets.
• 53:44
  And anyway, if it all goes wrong, we're still the United States of uh 1945.
• 53:50
  So there is a uh uh you cannot underestimate the lack of knowledge of foreign countries um within the US intelligence community, and especially you can't underestimated it with all the people that are responsible for conducting foreign policy.
• 54:11
  I mean, I've I've never been part of the intelligence, any intelligence community, so you can speak to that obviously far better than I can, but having over my career talked extensively with uh intelligence analysts on various aspects.
• 54:32
  Um and also watching what happens, my my experience has been that you're talking to guys who know what they're talking about.
• 54:45
  The problem with it is that politicians uh and policymakers uh have different criteria, and they want whatever they hear to fit into what uh what their objectives are or what they're trying to achieve.
• 55:05
  Um yes, you're probably right that that has career uh or can have career consequences.
• 55:14
  It's interesting in the Israeli case, because one of the things that for a very long time, I'm not sure it still is that to that degree, but for a very long time, certainly up until uh the Gaza war, uh, one characteristic of the Israeli military was that you were supposed to chat, you were expected to challenge your commanders if you disagreed.
• 55:43
  Uh and that at the same time, authority was uh delegated to relatively low levels within the military, and in some ways the Israelis had uh in that way had shielded uh uh themselves against the kind of problems that um uh that you were you were just describing.
• 56:12
  That's changing, of course, because you now have an certainly an authoritarian leader in Israel, if not someone who would love to see an autocracy.
• 56:24
  Let's gentlemen, we ran we ran out of time, we're over time.
• 56:28
  I don't want him to edit this.
• 56:29
  I thank you, James, for coming back on.
• 56:32
  I thank you all for joining us on the mission.
• 56:34
  I thank you, the the listeners for joining us on the mission national security hour.
• 56:38
  It's the tip of the spirit in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.