Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / China Deal God Candle Incoming?📈Crypto Market Update🚀

Transcript

China Deal God Candle Incoming?📈Crypto Market Update🚀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: A China god candle could be brewing. This could impact
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: the crypto market in a big way. We'll break it
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: down for you. My name is Paul Barren. We'll come
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: back in a tech path. Let's go into it. I
• 0:16
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• 1:00
  Speaker 1: does help the channel. All right, Let's go over to
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: our first clip today, and this is maybe what set
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: the market off yesterday with Bitcoin of course, accelerating to
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: one oh three eth of course, now hitting up to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: as high as twenty five hundred today.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you better go out and buy stock.
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: Let me tell you, this country will will be like
• 1:23
  Speaker 5: a rocket chip that goes straight up. This is going
• 1:26
  Speaker 5: to be numbers that nobody's ever seen before.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So that was, of course President of Trump talking about
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: giving you an early signal that the stock market is
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: getting ready to boom. But instead what happened was, yes,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: the stock market did get a little pump, but really
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: what happened the name of the game was all about
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: crypto Bitcoin, of course, accelerating beyond the one hundred k marks,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: starting to put some pressure on its all time high. Now,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the thing that could start brewing this weekend is the
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: negotiation with China. Here, of course is Trump, from some
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: of his pro over on truth Social saying that eighty
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: percent tariff on China seems right, but really, up to
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Scott Bessant, this is course coming in from truth Social.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I think the key here with Trump and what he's
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: trying to get at is that really it's going to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: be boiling down to a lot of negotiations on his
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: best advisors with the Chinese and their best advisors. And
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: remember that in most cases there is tariffs already in
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: place on China. Now, we haven't seen the tariffs of
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: seventy eighty ninety one hundred percent, but could we come
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: out with something.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: A little bit above where we were just this time
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Any kind of indication coming out of Geneva will be
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a reason for the market to look at and say,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: this is it. Guys, we're going to run from here.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a couple other points that
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: I'm getting at right here, and that is that China
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: should open up its market the USA. It be a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: lot better for them. And then, of course close markets
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: don't work anymore.
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people on zero for zero
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: around the world are negotiating toward that. You look at
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the United States and the trade and balance. Yes, that
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: has been existing for quite some time, but I have
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: a feeling that Trump is starting to throw out some
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: olive branches here to try to get these deals done.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: The UK deal was the big one yesterday. That of
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: course was the G seven, one of our G seven partners,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: and it could cause a domino effect within the EU
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: for deals independently, either with the EU or possibly with
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: some of those countries, some of the biggest carmakers obviously
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: in Europe that could be affected. Here for sure, I
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick because this
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: is where the traditional markets and what their expectations are.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Take a look. President of the United States is giving
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: stocks advice. Should we be listening to him? Yes? Probably.
• 3:46
  Speaker 6: I think he's guiding that he wants this weekend to
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: have positive headline risk for markets. And you know what
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: people are really hoping for is we get some kind
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: of pausing of tariffs or some kind of reduction of
• 3:58
  Speaker 6: tariffs while negotiations are ongoing, and just some positive messages
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: that they are on track to backtrack significantly from the
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: threats of a month ago.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: So you know, if we get as a Lensky movement
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: in Geneva parking back to the Oval Office, what happens
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: to the market?
• 4:12
  Speaker 7: Then?
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: I think actually the sound bites out of the weekend
• 4:16
  Speaker 6: are less important than what they practically decide to do
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: on tariffs for the negotiation period. So and that will
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: happen no matter what the soundbites are. And I'm because
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: Trump is promising something good this weekend there's a high
• 4:30
  Speaker 6: likelihood we get some action like that, and if we don't,
• 4:32
  Speaker 6: the market will be devastated on Monday because market expectations
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: are very optimistic for something positive to come out of
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: the weekend.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: So this is going to be a big weekend, guys.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Either we will see maybe an ethereum eclipsing three thousand.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: It's very possible we could see even an all time
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: high on bitcoin if there is an indicator coming out
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: of Geneva that could push in this direction. Now, obviously,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: with Trump's statement on eighty percent, kobeeasy came in the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: s and P immediately turned red on the day as
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: President Trump proposed the eighty percent tariffs on China. China
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: has responded by saying they firmly opposed to the US
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: abuse of reciprocal tariffs, and it's becoming increasing clear that
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: some four of tariffs will remain long term.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: That of course, has already been in place.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Remember China has been paying tariffs for quite some time
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: because of the last Trump administration, that the Biden administration
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: actually held those tariffs in place. The question is how
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: much more will they acquire in terms of tariffs and
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: will there get to be any true reciprocation on US
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: goods or services going into China. That's the bigger question
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: to help deal with the trade and balance overall.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Here, of course, is Peter Schiff.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Kind of doing his typical fud, which is eighty percent
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: tariffs on China. Seems right, but you know they're really
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the ball is in Besson's place, but he's saying that
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: it isn't really a teriff on China. It's a terriff
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: on Americans who are buying imported products from China.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: And I don't expect much to.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Come from this weekend's meeting because he knows if anything
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: comes from this weekend's meeting, Crypto is going to boom.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: That's the reason right there that you're getting the fud.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So really it boils down to this situation, and that
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: is who is in a stronger position to negotiate. And
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: if you look at the deal that was just done
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: with the UK, it's very possible that the United States
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: was possibly giving a little bit of guidance to say, hey,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: we've got the UK in our pocket, and likely is
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: we're going to have some of the the EU coming
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: in or other major countries, including someone like in India,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: and or even maybe negotiations into even South America and Canada.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: All of that boils down to who has the upper hand.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Let's go to this clip take a look.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: There could be some reduction that could come out.
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, the situation is dire as trade is completely
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: frozen up.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: It could be that there.
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: Are gradual reductions on both sides in parallel, one after
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: the other.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: That could happen as well.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: There's been a lot of political rhetoric about how tough
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: both sides are going to be, but both sides in
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: trade negotiations have a long history of turning on a dime.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Who, in your mind, really has the leverage when it
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: comes to these discussions.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: Well, your first question. Trump is unique.
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: He sees himself as a wheeler and dealer that can
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: make deals off the cuff.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: That's not how trade deals are made.
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: Trade deals are made after long negotiations and leaders then
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: bless them. So we're in a different realm here in
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: terms of who has the upper hand. I think you
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: need to ignore a lot of the rhetoric about how
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: tough they're going to be. That is rhetoric for domestic audiences.
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: I think I think both of them need each other.
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: We are now at the point where rhetoric is over
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: and reality is setting in and orders are being canceled,
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: people are being laid off, ships are not sailing.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: So there's an imperative on both sides to do something.
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: And I think that both sides are pragmatic enough if
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: they can get beyond all of the political rhetoric to
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: get something done for their people.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So one thing he did say that I do agree with,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: and that is both sides need each other. I think
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: both from a market standpoint, and I think all they
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: have to do is give a little. The US has
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: to give a little, the Chinese have to give a little,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: and I think you get to a point where both
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: feel like they've won.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: And that's the key here.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: If Trump feels like he's one, if Gijiping feels like
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: he is one, that will make a trade deal happen,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: and of course this will.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Set global markets ablaze.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: The other thing that could play into this is some
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: of the new proposals around the current tax bill.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 8:43
  Speaker 7: We have the details of the White House proposal. They're
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: asking for a thirty nine point six percent tax rate
• 8:49
  Speaker 7: on individuals making two point five million dollars or more.
• 8:53
  Speaker 7: Of course, current rate thirty seven percent. The proposal from
• 8:56
  Speaker 7: the White House will also include a carve out for
• 8:58
  Speaker 7: small business owners who count the income from their business
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: on their personal taxes, and that addressed some concerns that
• 9:05
  Speaker 7: lawmakers had. They did not want small businesses to be
• 9:08
  Speaker 7: penalized by a higher tax rate. Now, you know GOP
• 9:11
  Speaker 7: leaders in the House, we've discussed this before. Previously they
• 9:14
  Speaker 7: cast doubt on this idea. They didn't think it was viable.
• 9:18
  Speaker 7: But right now, lawmakers really need to find revenue raisers
• 9:21
  Speaker 7: in order to pay for not just extending that twenty
• 9:24
  Speaker 7: seventeen tax law, but all the other things that Trump wants,
• 9:28
  Speaker 7: like no tax on tips. And this package is going
• 9:31
  Speaker 7: to cost a lot.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: The Peter G.
• 9:32
  Speaker 7: Peterson Foundation estimated that extending the twenty seventeen law and
• 9:37
  Speaker 7: then giving Trump most of the items he wants could
• 9:39
  Speaker 7: cost more than nine trillion, and that's one of the
• 9:42
  Speaker 7: middle of the road estimates. We've seen estimates that have
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: gone higher. It's expected to get its first vote in
• 9:47
  Speaker 7: the House next week on the Ways and Means Panel.
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: We're expecting that to begin Tuesday, and a lengthy markup
• 9:53
  Speaker 7: expected to go into the night, and that will be
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: the first hurdle that this tax bill is going to clear,
• 9:57
  Speaker 7: but certainly not the last.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: All right, so big things there of course brewing with
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the tax bill, which most likely I think will also
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: get past the other key things that, of course all
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: center around. This is how quickly the two sides can
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: kind of come to the agreement of what this might
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: look like. The other thing that is hitting the market
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: right now is a little bit of interesting price predictions
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: and also an awareness of where this market has come from.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: This is Kathy Wood talking about this. I'll comment after
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: the clip, but take a look.
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: Well, we have been saying, actually I just put out
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: a letter talking about the rolling recession we've been in
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: for the last three years since the FED jacked uprights.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: We got a negative quarter in the first quarter, potentially
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: in the second quarter as well, and I think more
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: and more people are getting concerned about an extended recession,
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: and amid all the uncertainty, we actually think we're at
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: the end of this rolling recession. We have always had
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: a twenty thirty target, the base case in the seven
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: hundred to seven hundred and fifty thousand range, the bowlcase
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: in the one point five million dollar range. David Powell,
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: our analyst and our on chain analyst, put that piece
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: out recently, and you can see the building blocks. How
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: much share we expect a bitcoin to either take from
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: gold or grow that store of value. Market institutions moving
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: in and they've barely moved in. We have a million
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: more coins roughly to be minted, ever, and institutions are
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: just testing the waters right now. And then there's the
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: emerging market use case as well, so we think we
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: have miles to go.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Yes, all right, so some good things there and some
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: things I don't necessarily agree with. I don't necessarily believe
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: that we've been in a rolling recession now. Granted we've
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: got a negative GDP in Q one. If another GDP
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: comes in that's negative.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be the definition. Sure.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: But at the same time you also have stock market
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: and crypto markets now beaming at what could be nearing
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: another top run. The interesting point she made though, is
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: around the future of bitcoin at this point. Right now,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: they're twenty thirty prediction, around seven hundred and fifty k
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: at base case, and up to a.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Million and a half.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: This could be the beginning of something very big and
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of questioning. I want you guys to give
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: me your input with some comments down below, and that is,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: do you think that gold would be the potential.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Liquidity for the market.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Or do you think it would come from new investors
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: coming into bitcoin and using it as store capital. I
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: don't know if I think it's going to be a
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: little bit of both, but I think that's the question
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: right now as to how bitcoin is going to roll
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: over the next few years, going into twenty thirty. To
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: what Kathleen Wood said, now, one thing that you have
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to look at right now is bitcoin's dominance. Bitcoin. Let
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: me kind of zoom in on that for you guys.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin's dominance now starting to decline after it hit that
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: around a little over sixty five percent, And many people
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: would say, well, this is a bullish signal for all coins,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: because typically what we've seen in the past has been
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: when bitcoin dominance peaks, all coin season starts. Now, granted,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: was that the immediate signal that we saw coming in
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: with Ethereum yesterday, coming off of what seemed to be
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a nobody knew other than pack draw upgrade, and you know,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: somewhat of I would say anticipated good news coming out
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: of the potential tariff negotiations. Nothing was really a signal
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: outside of bitcoin dominance starting to falter slightly. So if
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: you look at the total three, you can kind of
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: see this breakout right here. This has been the downward
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: trend that we've been in really all the way back
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: to January of this year, and everybody's kind of been
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: in that muck that we've talked about here on the
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: show quite a bit, and that has been bitcoin sliding
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: back down to seventy five, up and in and out
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of eighty and then finally creeping into the nineties.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Now we're on a total.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Three that is clearly broke out of holding it around
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: eight hundred and eighty billion across the sector. And with
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: that and you look at just quickly into bitcoin's response,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: this is the kind of response zone that we're in
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: right now on bitcoin. The question right now it's getting
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: into a little bit of a zone of resistance. Obviously,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: this is getting it to its near all time high.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: And if you look at that all time high, floating
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: it around one oh five to one oh eight, that'll
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: be an interesting time over the weekend if we actually
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: get a chance. But the one to watch right now, guys,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: is this one right here ethereum which is clearly broke
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to a bullish upside and has clipped as high as
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: twenty four What is that high on the day?
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: There? Is it?
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Twenty four eighty three?
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so right at twenty four ninety on the day
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: as we're recording this, a real question. Could Eth break
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: the thief three thousand dollars mark in the next week.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Be on the lookout for all of this good stuff.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: We'll continue to cover this and much more, especially as
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a stable cooin bill comes through on Monday again, they'll
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: get another dip at that.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: We'll cover that for you, guys.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: If you're not in the Diamond circle, make sure and
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: do that. That is our own private group. It's very
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: easy to join. We always leave a link down below.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Follow me out there on x at Paul Baron. We'll
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: catch you next time right here on Techpath