Latest / The Crest Report / Trump Wants the Strait, Exxon Made $14.5 Billion, and Your Daughter Is Asking Why You're Broke
Transcript
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: From Golden Crest Metals, this is the Crest Report, where markets meet reality.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: Your weekly briefing on the economy, gold, silver, and protecting what you've built.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: And now, here's your host, Jeremy Harrell.
- 0:22SPEAKER_01: Well, good afternoon, good morning, or I guess it just depends on where you are.
- 0:29SPEAKER_01: Good day.
- 0:30SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Crest Report.
- 0:32SPEAKER_01: My name is Jeremy Harrell on behalf of Golden Crest Metal.
- 0:38SPEAKER_01: Thank you for joining us today for this wonderful podcast talking about precious metals such as gold, silver, palladium, and platinum.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: This is your one-stop shop for all your precious metal news.
- 0:52SPEAKER_01: We're very, very, very happy that you can join us today.
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- 1:33SPEAKER_01: GoldenCrestmetals.com slash report.
- 1:37SPEAKER_01: Now, there's a special offer for qualified uh purchases, and that is you get a free portfolio review.
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- 1:53SPEAKER_01: Thank you again for being here.
- 1:54SPEAKER_01: We're gonna go through our different segments today, starting with segment number one.
- 2:01SPEAKER_01: President Trump wants to claim the Hormoose straight as US territory and threatened to bomb Oman.
- 2:10SPEAKER_01: How's that working out for the gold and silver markets?
- 2:13SPEAKER_01: Well, we're gonna break all that down and more.
- 2:15SPEAKER_01: And then, as you know, we get through towards the end of the show, we actually dive deep into what is making gold do what gold is doing and what is making silver do what silver is doing.
- 2:26SPEAKER_01: We've had a pretty rallying last couple weeks.
- 2:30SPEAKER_01: Some ups and some downs, but really, really good news for the precious metal market.
- 2:34SPEAKER_01: Because to be honest with you, if they haven't fallen through the floor now and gone down to$30 an ounce for silver or$3,500 an ounce for gold, I can promise you we're sitting at a pretty good uh place right now if you own any of that, if you've diversified your portfolio.
- 2:50SPEAKER_01: So, again, welcome to uh the crest report here on uh Golden Crest Metals, basically live podcasting.
- 2:59SPEAKER_01: It's good to have you here.
- 2:59SPEAKER_01: Thank you so very much.
- 3:01SPEAKER_01: Again, we're gonna get into the Strait of Hormoose first in the second segment of today's show.
- 3:05SPEAKER_01: We're gonna be talking about the CPI and where that came in at.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: We got some good news there.
- 3:11SPEAKER_01: Uh segment number three, we're going to touch on retail sales and where they are currently, or at least what we got for a report in July.
- 3:19SPEAKER_01: After that, we're going to move on, like I said, to segment four, which is diving into the exact price of gold and what's going on and who's reacting how to it this week.
- 3:30SPEAKER_01: And then, of course, that's followed up right by Silver.
- 3:32SPEAKER_01: Uh, Silver's having a phenomenal, phenomenal last 10 days to two weeks.
- 3:37SPEAKER_01: So we're going to be uh breaking that down as well.
- 3:39SPEAKER_01: You're seeing some pretty good gains if you've had some year-over-year investments.
- 3:43SPEAKER_01: Uh moving on from that, we're going to be talking about uh the uh the way that the government can freeze money.
- 3:49SPEAKER_01: Look, they've done it before, they're doing it now, they'll do it again.
- 3:52SPEAKER_01: They'll always do it.
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: There's certain things that they cannot touch, right?
- 3:56SPEAKER_01: They can't touch your joy and they can't touch your gold.
- 3:59SPEAKER_01: Now, not that the two things are tied together, but those are two things that they can't take.
- 4:03SPEAKER_01: They can't take your joy and they can't take your gold.
- 4:07SPEAKER_01: So, uh, if you're ready, if you're buckled in, then ladies and gentlemen, let's get right to it.
- 4:13SPEAKER_01: Segment number one, President Trump wants to claim the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: territory and has even gone to the lengths of threatening Oman.
- 4:25SPEAKER_01: Are these threats valid?
- 4:27SPEAKER_01: Are they justified?
- 4:28SPEAKER_01: Well, we'll let you be the judge of that.
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: We're just here to report the news.
- 4:32SPEAKER_01: Now, there's a few places we're pulling this from CNBC, uh, Britannica, CNN, uh, and some other uh worldly news networks, but the biggest story of the week.
- 4:44SPEAKER_01: President Trump said at the New York midterm rally, quote, after we finish defeating Iran, I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States of America.
- 4:58SPEAKER_01: Now, unquote.
- 5:01SPEAKER_01: Let me ask you this.
- 5:03SPEAKER_01: Other areas in this world that are United States territory, unless they're attacked by terrorist groups, does anybody mess with them?
- 5:13SPEAKER_01: And the answer is no.
- 5:14SPEAKER_01: So imagine if, so let me paint a picture here for you.
- 5:20SPEAKER_01: The United States of America is now the number one gas and oil exporter in the world, natural gas and oil.
- 5:28SPEAKER_01: We are in the business of building refineries.
- 5:30SPEAKER_01: We've got a refinery getting built in Texas as we speak.
- 5:35SPEAKER_01: And we control the flow of oil coming from Venezuela to the United States and around the world, and hypothetically, we would control the Strait of Hormuz.
- 5:42SPEAKER_01: You tell me what that would mean for you and me in the long run.
- 5:44SPEAKER_01: Would you really go through that short-term pain for that kind of long-term gain?
- 5:48SPEAKER_01: I think I might be game for something like that.
- 5:50SPEAKER_01: Now, all week long on LFA TV, where I report my news, by the way, uh, that's another great news source for you, is your LFA TV.
- 5:58SPEAKER_01: Search that on any of your uh search engines.
- 6:01SPEAKER_01: But uh, we've been reporting on this for months and months and months since President Trump came out in February and said what he was going to do.
- 6:08SPEAKER_01: Now, to us, this is no surprise.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: To us, the gas prices, the grocery prices, they're no surprise.
- 6:13SPEAKER_01: But I will say this before we, since we're talking about it and since it was a very, very big topic this week, Chevron and ExxonMobil, they just came in with quarter two numbers.
- 6:25SPEAKER_01: And what I'm about to tell you might shed some light on a subject and it might make you a little bit angry, but you're here for the truth and you're here to understand why your uh why your uh ownership of precious metals is not only fluctuating, but holding strong, but where it's going to go in the future.
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: You're here for that information.
- 6:48SPEAKER_01: Well, this information is tied right to it.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: Chevron and ExxonMobil.
- 6:52SPEAKER_01: ExxonMobil just came in with their quarter two earnings of 2026 at 14.5.
- 6:59SPEAKER_01: Ready for this?
- 7:00SPEAKER_01: Billion dollars.
- 7:04SPEAKER_01: Quarter two.
- 7:07SPEAKER_01: Now that might not mean anything to you until I tell you that last year, quarter two, it was seven billion.
- 7:17SPEAKER_01: Sounds to me like somebody's doing a little bit of market manipulation or what do they call it, good old fashioned price gouging.
- 7:27SPEAKER_01: Ladies and gentlemen, they are over double what they were last year at this time for their quarter, uh, for their quarter, second quarterly uh profits.
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: Now let's go to Chevron.
- 7:38SPEAKER_01: 12.1 billion for quarter two.
- 7:42SPEAKER_01: Another record high.
- 7:44SPEAKER_01: But again, doesn't really make much sense when you're talking of a world of billions until you realize that that is quadruple where Chevron was last year and the end of their quarterly filings.
- 7:57SPEAKER_01: Quarter two, 2025.
- 8:00SPEAKER_01: Quadruple, folks.
- 8:02SPEAKER_01: That means they had three billion last year at this time.
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: So you tell me again, why does your gas at the pump cost what it costs?
- 8:17SPEAKER_01: Now all of that would make sense if there was no supply and demand, if there was a supply and demand disruption.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: But there never was because the United States of America filled that void.
- 8:26SPEAKER_01: No country was short on energy during this Iran conflict.
- 8:30SPEAKER_01: So I think that that needs to be a staple of information that you have as you take it out into the world and you uh, you know, looking at your portfolio and look at your investment.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: Because sooner or later that's all gonna change, and when it does, it's gonna change a lot.
- 8:46SPEAKER_01: And I hope you own some precious metals when that happens, folks.
- 8:49SPEAKER_01: I really do.
- 8:51SPEAKER_01: But after saying that, going back to that unquote, he said it with a chuckle, by the way.
- 8:57SPEAKER_01: He then posted an AI-generated image on True Social showing the straight labeled new U.S.
- 9:03SPEAKER_01: territory.
- 9:04SPEAKER_01: Now that could be a negotiation tactic.
- 9:06SPEAKER_01: He's known for doing that.
- 9:07SPEAKER_01: That's not nothing uh new, but still.
- 9:11SPEAKER_01: The 62 day, or 60 day, excuse me, MOU has expired.
- 9:16SPEAKER_01: Excuse me.
- 9:17SPEAKER_01: I don't know why I said 62.
- 9:19SPEAKER_01: The memorandum of understanding signed in June that created the ceasefire framework has now expired.
- 9:25SPEAKER_01: I don't know about you, but I didn't see much of a ceasefire during that last 60 days.
- 9:29SPEAKER_01: Trump confirmed the U.S.
- 9:31SPEAKER_01: has no planned talks with Iran and no plans to start any at all.
- 9:35SPEAKER_01: Oil prices rose for a third straight session as the two sides moved further and further apart.
- 9:42SPEAKER_01: Again, going back to that, I didn't think there was a ceasefire anywhere, a memorandum of understanding, when you talk about ships getting struck constantly.
- 9:50SPEAKER_01: Now, yes, is the strait open more than now than it has been in the recent past?
- 9:54SPEAKER_01: Yes, absolutely.
- 9:55SPEAKER_01: Oil is flowing, folks.
- 9:57SPEAKER_01: You're having Navy escorts go through there.
- 9:59SPEAKER_01: You're having uh uh a lot of success with those Navy, those NASY those Navy escorts, but still not completely.
- 10:07SPEAKER_01: The British military reported a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 10:15SPEAKER_01: Trump's special envoy, Kushner, said that, also his son-in-law, said that Iran was unwilling to compromise on U.S.
- 10:26SPEAKER_01: demands.
- 10:26SPEAKER_01: Remember, we talked about those demands last week and whether they would or would not be met.
- 10:31SPEAKER_01: The 10-year Treasury jumped 4.72%, a near one-year high on that escalation news.
- 10:39SPEAKER_01: You see, ladies and gentlemen, the entire markets, whether it's real or not, is really fluctuating based on news that comes in or out of Iran.
- 10:54SPEAKER_01: I mean, look at Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
- 10:58SPEAKER_01: Unless somebody does something about it, why wouldn't they use this opportunity to price gouge?
- 11:05SPEAKER_01: This is where Todd Blanch and the people at the Department of Justice would probably really need to get involved, which they've talked about doing, but I've seen not I've seen not much movement in the way of any kind of accountability or even, you know, strongly worded letters to these oil and gas companies.
- 11:25SPEAKER_01: But of course, I'm not in the administration.
- 11:27SPEAKER_01: I don't know what's going on in the back end.
- 11:29SPEAKER_01: But when you just show quadruple and double profits, sounds to me like you're using this situation to become even richer.
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: And that's the problem there.
- 11:41SPEAKER_01: So you might say Donald Trump's policy is causing this.
- 11:45SPEAKER_01: Well, in a way, you'd be right, because his policy of doing this mission in Iran, to what extent we don't know, is being used as an excuse for these oil and gas companies to rake it in.
- 12:01SPEAKER_01: And of course they do this every time.
- 12:03SPEAKER_01: So all the news, whether it's just, you know, a simple statement or whether it is an official statement from either side, it's going to affect the outcome.
- 12:17SPEAKER_01: So Trump then threatened to bond Oman.
- 12:22SPEAKER_01: Oman has been the mediator through a majority of this conflict.
- 12:28SPEAKER_01: The country hosting talks between the U.S.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: and Iran, Trump is now threatening to bomb that country for working with Iran on a straight deal.
- 12:39SPEAKER_01: That is not a small development because Oman is looked at as a U.S.
- 12:44SPEAKER_01: partner.
- 12:44SPEAKER_01: Now, again, President Trump does these things for negotiation purposes.
- 12:50SPEAKER_01: He says some pretty outlandish stuff that the world goes and drops their jaw over and then he brings it back.
- 12:55SPEAKER_01: It's the art of the deal.
- 12:56SPEAKER_01: You know, it's just the way a uh a top-tier businessman like that, like that works.
- 13:01SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's threatened many, many, many people with some serious, you know, military response in the past and uh, you know, not followed through.
- 13:11SPEAKER_01: But if it pushes the needle in our direction, then he's going to use that.
- 13:15SPEAKER_01: He's going to at least say, hey, it would be a shame, wouldn't it?
- 13:19SPEAKER_01: At the very least.
- 13:20SPEAKER_01: So this doesn't mean that Oman is now an enemy of the United States of America.
- 13:23SPEAKER_01: It means they're put on notice.
- 13:24SPEAKER_01: Don't be doing anything behind our back, is basically what the president is saying.
- 13:30SPEAKER_01: So what is Iran's response to all of this?
- 13:32SPEAKER_01: Iran's deputy forest foreign minister, excuse me, uh did post on social media saying, quote, Trump said after Duran's def Iran's defeat that he will declare the strait as an American territory, unquote.
- 13:45SPEAKER_01: Defiant, not moving, oil is now trading around$90 again.
- 13:54SPEAKER_01: The 60% who oppose this war, well, that's the Quinnipiac poll from late July that found 60% of U.S.
- 14:01SPEAKER_01: voters oppose U.S.
- 14:02SPEAKER_01: military action against Iran.
- 14:05SPEAKER_01: Now, whether that be poor messaging or whether that just be, look, we don't want to deal.
- 14:10SPEAKER_01: We're fatigued with everything when it comes to other countries and conflict that they have.
- 14:17SPEAKER_01: I will play devil's advocate here for a second and say this is a direct conflict with us.
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: There's been a direct conflict with us and them for a very long time, especially being the police of the world.
- 14:30SPEAKER_01: But again, the fact of the matter is people really understand their wallet.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: They understand their wallet, they understand their finances, and they don't really either want to understand or even necessarily know how to get the correct information of what's really going on and why this may be or may not be needed.
- 14:50SPEAKER_01: But most people don't really care.
- 14:52SPEAKER_01: They just want to be able to function properly day to day.
- 14:56SPEAKER_01: And if there's a if there's a financial hurdle to that functioning properly, then they're going to voice their opinion.
- 15:04SPEAKER_01: And that's what we're finding in the Quinne Pac poll.
- 15:07SPEAKER_01: 60% oppose it.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 15:14SPEAKER_01: Trump is at a mid uh midterm rally promoting candidates while this conflict that continues over and over again with the we gotta deal, we don't, we gotta deal, we don't, that's what's driving that.
- 15:30SPEAKER_01: People are sick of it at this point.
- 15:31SPEAKER_01: Now, I I I would I would agree that at one point that there was a lot more for it, as long as it was a timeline on it.
- 15:39SPEAKER_01: What Americans don't like is, and I understand it in military action, you can't really give a timeline, at least not publicly.
- 15:47SPEAKER_01: I get that.
- 15:48SPEAKER_01: But what Americans really don't like is feeling like we don't have control over a situation.
- 15:55SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's why we're listening to the show today.
- 15:57SPEAKER_01: It's to control your own financial situation.
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: That's why you're here.
- 16:01SPEAKER_01: That's why you're listening.
- 16:04SPEAKER_01: Every escalation equals higher oil.
- 16:06SPEAKER_01: Every time there's higher oil, it means inflation is at risk of going higher.
- 16:10SPEAKER_01: Every time inflation is at risk of going higher, the Fed will stay aggressive.
- 16:16SPEAKER_01: Every time Trump makes a dramatic new claim about the strait, regardless of if it's true, or a negotiation tactic, which either could be the case, the energy market reacts.
- 16:26SPEAKER_01: The volatility is not over.
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: The case for owning something outside of that paper system and being on that emotional roller coaster, ladies and gentlemen, it's not over.
- 16:40SPEAKER_01: Moving on to segment number two, CPI.
- 16:44SPEAKER_01: For all those out there that are concerned with this, let's bring the facts on this.
- 16:50SPEAKER_01: CPI came in at 3.4%.
- 16:53SPEAKER_01: That's good news.
- 16:55SPEAKER_01: But Jackson, hold on August 28th, could change everything.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: Regards of Wall Street, GoldSilver.com and CNBC have all reported about the July CPI coming in at 3.4%.
- 17:11SPEAKER_01: Down from 3.5%.
- 17:13SPEAKER_01: So for you or me, a point a point of a percent might not be a lot.
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: But if it's in line with or better than expectation, then that means good people feel good.
- 17:27SPEAKER_01: Just 0.1%.
- 17:30SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's the monthly uh that's the monthly increase.
- 17:34SPEAKER_01: Core CPI, 2.5%.
- 17:36SPEAKER_01: Two consecutive months of benign inflation ratings.
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: September rate hike odds now dropped from 58 to about 39%.
- 17:48SPEAKER_01: That's massive.
- 17:49SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're talking, you're talking a teens or or or or in the 20% difference in just a little bit of time.
- 17:57SPEAKER_01: Um, one thing that we don't need in this country is rate hikes, right?
- 18:00SPEAKER_01: I mean, we need rate reductions.
- 18:04SPEAKER_01: I'm sure some people out there would like to see some rate hikes, but I wouldn't.
- 18:08SPEAKER_01: I'm sure you wouldn't.
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: So energy prices fell.
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: This is why that happened, because energy prices fell 1.5% in July.
- 18:18SPEAKER_01: Things are moving in the right direction, folks.
- 18:21SPEAKER_01: You just saw a massive 50% reduction in trade deficit.
- 18:26SPEAKER_01: We just got word this week that the bottom per the bottom earners in America just got a 5.5% wage increase.
- 18:35SPEAKER_01: That's the bottom earners, not overall, but the bottom earners, which is where you want to see this these uh these wage increases start, that happened.
- 18:44SPEAKER_01: We also just got news that um on average Americans saw a 17% increase in their tax return amount.
- 18:54SPEAKER_01: So things are going the right way.
- 18:56SPEAKER_01: We also found out this week that prescription drug prices just hit the lowest point on record in 60 years.
- 19:04SPEAKER_01: These are all things that people will not talk about when they're talking about what they're paying at the pump and what they're paying at groceries.
- 19:11SPEAKER_01: So why I say this is there's a massive silver lining in the economy, in the foundational building blocks of this economy that are right there, just ready to pop.
- 19:21SPEAKER_01: And when it does, I hope you own, I hope you own some gold, silver plate, im or platinum.
- 19:30SPEAKER_01: So with energy prices falling 1.5% in July, that is almost entirely because of the ceasefire pause in June.
- 19:37SPEAKER_01: But now that's over.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: So we saw an increase in gas again.
- 19:41SPEAKER_01: Gas back around$4 nationally.
- 19:44SPEAKER_01: The ceasefire that gave us the good CPI reading no longer exists.
- 19:47SPEAKER_01: Something has to happen in the way of that news in order for that economic uh growth and um, you know, positive movement to continue.
- 19:59SPEAKER_01: All right.
- 20:01SPEAKER_01: So gas is still up 24.6% year over year.
- 20:06SPEAKER_01: People can handle 5%, they can handle 10%, but when you're talking about 24.6%, that's a significant amount of money, especially if somebody drives an hour to work every day.
- 20:18SPEAKER_01: Now I'm blessed.
- 20:19SPEAKER_01: I live within minutes of my studio.
- 20:24SPEAKER_01: And most stuff today can be done virtually in my company, in my business.
- 20:30SPEAKER_01: But that's not the majority of the world.
- 20:32SPEAKER_01: The majority of the world travels a good distance to work, and when you're spending$300 more a month,$400 more a month, whatever that increase is for fuel in your family between you and your spouse, yeah.
- 20:46SPEAKER_01: Then all of a sudden, 24.6% crushes you.
- 20:53SPEAKER_01: Even with the July relief, gasoline is up 24.6% year over year.
- 21:00SPEAKER_01: Fuel oil is up 39.1%.
- 21:04SPEAKER_01: We can't have that going into winter, folks.
- 21:06SPEAKER_01: You just can't.
- 21:07SPEAKER_01: Especially with all the summer jobs being over, with all the summer tourism jobs being over.
- 21:14SPEAKER_01: Airline fees and fares, this is another one, folks.
- 21:17SPEAKER_01: They're up 25.5%.
- 21:18SPEAKER_01: Why do they got to do that?
- 21:19SPEAKER_01: Because of the cost of the fuel.
- 21:21SPEAKER_01: So again, who's to blame here?
- 21:23SPEAKER_01: You can point the pick the the blame at the president all you want.
- 21:27SPEAKER_01: And yes, his policies are allowing other people to price gouge and do what they're doing, but Chevron and ExxonMobil quadrupling and doubling their prop their uh earnings uh for a year over year.
- 21:39SPEAKER_01: There's something wrong with that.
- 21:42SPEAKER_01: And on the behalf of the American people, I pray that Todd Blanche, the Attorney General, does something about this.
- 21:49SPEAKER_01: Consumers are paying$4.04 per gallon nationally as of the end of last week.
- 21:56SPEAKER_01: These numbers are not good.
- 22:00SPEAKER_01: They're just less bad than they were in May.
- 22:03SPEAKER_01: So here's the economic warning.
- 22:05SPEAKER_01: CNBC's five takeaways from the CPI report include this quote gassing up for August, both June and July moderation came from easing energy prices during the ceasefire.
- 22:19SPEAKER_01: The ceasefire now being expired, August, CPI could reverse this progress entirely.
- 22:25SPEAKER_01: And that's what you don't want to see.
- 22:26SPEAKER_01: You don't want to see something being completely wiped out that you've already gained, right?
- 22:31SPEAKER_01: Now, Jackson Hole, August 27 through August 29th.
- 22:37SPEAKER_01: Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the Fed, will deliver his first major speech as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.
- 22:48SPEAKER_01: This is the first speech every Fed chair uses in order to signal major policy shifts and the markets will hang on every word.
- 22:59SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you what.
- 23:00SPEAKER_01: Like flies on manure, the market is going to be there.
- 23:06SPEAKER_01: And if it smells to high heaven, the world will smell it.
- 23:10SPEAKER_01: Let's hope it doesn't.
- 23:12SPEAKER_01: What we can expect, well, probably nothing.
- 23:15SPEAKER_01: I mean, all of this talk, all the speculation, is probably most likely, unless something drastic happens in the next week, worse has been deliberately evasive at both press conferences that he's been in so far.
- 23:30SPEAKER_01: And he knows this because he knows that every word that he says, everything that comes out of his mouth, like I said, they will be on it like flies on manure.
- 23:42SPEAKER_01: He said the Fed is not constrained by market prices.
- 23:46SPEAKER_01: That's a quote.
- 23:47SPEAKER_01: He told reporters after the July meeting, after July's meeting, the Jackson Hole speech would frame, quote, big questions, unquote.
- 23:58SPEAKER_01: Not really give near-term rate guidance.
- 24:02SPEAKER_01: The real signal may come from what he doesn't say.
- 24:10SPEAKER_01: What's the uh Wells Fargo quote?
- 24:12SPEAKER_01: Quote, we remain guarded on the near-term inflation outlook amid volatile oil prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, along with lingering core prices, pressures from a strong economy, and the AI boom.
- 24:28SPEAKER_01: That's what Wells Fargo's saying.
- 24:32SPEAKER_01: Don't celebrate yet.
- 24:35SPEAKER_01: All of those building foundational economic positive marks and stats that I gave just a little bit ago, those are good news.
- 24:43SPEAKER_01: They really are.
- 24:44SPEAKER_01: But again, don't celebrate yet.
- 24:50SPEAKER_01: Don't be doom and gloom.
- 24:51SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying that.
- 24:53SPEAKER_01: I'm saying make sure you keep your focus where your focus should be.
- 24:55SPEAKER_01: And where is that?
- 24:56SPEAKER_01: Well, ladies and gentlemen, that's on Golden Crest Medals.
- 25:00SPEAKER_01: And the info that you get when you listen to this podcast every week.
- 25:04SPEAKER_01: Real quick, 888.
- 25:08SPEAKER_01: 888-991-6222.
- 25:13SPEAKER_01: That's 888-991-6222.
- 25:17SPEAKER_01: 888-991-6222.
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: I should have had a jingle for you.
- 25:22SPEAKER_01: That's a good old-fashioned way.
- 25:24SPEAKER_01: You pick up that phone, you pick up your cell phone, you pick up your house phone.
- 25:26SPEAKER_01: Maybe you still got a cord phone.
- 25:28SPEAKER_01: Maybe you still got uh maybe you got a Zach Morris from Saved by the Bell cell phone, whatever it is.
- 25:34SPEAKER_01: Send a Raven.
- 25:35SPEAKER_01: 888-991-6222.
- 25:37SPEAKER_01: The other way to do it is if you want to do it by text, here's another way you can do it.
- 25:41SPEAKER_01: Grab your cell phone and text the word report.
- 25:44SPEAKER_01: That's R-E-P-O-R-T, report to Metals, which is M-E-T-A-L-S.
- 25:51SPEAKER_01: And if you still need a little bit more help on that, the numbers are texting report to 638257.
- 25:58SPEAKER_01: That is report to 638257.
- 26:00SPEAKER_01: And you can also visit GoldenCrestmetals.com slash report.
- 26:04SPEAKER_01: That's goldencrestmetals.com slash report.
- 26:06SPEAKER_01: Qualified uh purchases, get a free portfolio review, which is like having uh, I mean, that's that's a service that people pay for.
- 26:13SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 26:14SPEAKER_01: You get a free investor kit.
- 26:15SPEAKER_01: I got one of those when I invested with Golden Crest Metals.
- 26:17SPEAKER_01: It was fun, it was nice.
- 26:18SPEAKER_01: I still got the folder and everything sitting right over there.
- 26:21SPEAKER_01: I can see it right here from my microphone.
- 26:23SPEAKER_01: And up to$25,000 in free silver.
- 26:27SPEAKER_01: Again, 20 years ago, silver was about seven bucks an ounce.
- 26:33SPEAKER_01: It's close to 70 now.
- 26:36SPEAKER_01: Imagine what it'll be in 20 years.
- 26:40SPEAKER_01: Woo! I'm just saying, I'm just saying.
- 26:45SPEAKER_01: Goldencrestmetals.com.
- 26:49SPEAKER_01: That's goldencrestmetals.com.
- 26:51SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get right back to it again.
- 26:52SPEAKER_01: The next segment.
- 26:54SPEAKER_01: We just came in with the CPI.
- 26:55SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about retail sales.
- 26:57SPEAKER_01: Because retail sales fell 0.6% in July.
- 27:02SPEAKER_01: The American consumer is running out of gas, folks.
- 27:07SPEAKER_01: I mean, look, I'm cutting back.
- 27:08SPEAKER_01: Everybody's cutting back.
- 27:09SPEAKER_01: This is what you do.
- 27:12SPEAKER_01: When times get like this, when times get tough, sometimes tougher than for some than others, you pull back.
- 27:20SPEAKER_01: It's okay to pull back.
- 27:22SPEAKER_01: My nine-year-old daughter says, Daddy, when we stop being broke, can we go to that's what she said to me yesterday.
- 27:29SPEAKER_01: I said, honey, we're not exactly broke, but we're pulling back.
- 27:34SPEAKER_01: What does that mean?
- 27:35SPEAKER_01: I said, well, that means we're just gonna spend a little less money for right now.
- 27:39SPEAKER_01: We're just gonna pull back.
- 27:40SPEAKER_01: Instead of going out to eat twice a month, we'll just not go out to eat at all this month.
- 27:44SPEAKER_01: And that way when we do go out to eat, it'll feel special.
- 27:46SPEAKER_01: And we'll make our we'll make our food right here.
- 27:49SPEAKER_01: Daddy, when we get money, like like we're like we're going back into the Great Depression.
- 27:54SPEAKER_01: Hey, if I have to, if I have to do that to make my kids understand the value of money, then you darn well bet I'm gonna do it.
- 28:03SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you that.
- 28:07SPEAKER_01: Daddy, when we get money again, she says.
- 28:10SPEAKER_01: All right.
- 28:10SPEAKER_01: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July against a consensus expectation of plus 0.1% to plus 0.3%.
- 28:22SPEAKER_01: That's a massive miss in the wrong direction, folks.
- 28:25SPEAKER_01: Americans are spending less, not because they want to, but because they have to.
- 28:32SPEAKER_01: The preliminary August consumer sentiment reading came in at 51.0 for context.
- 28:42SPEAKER_01: An all-time low was set earlier this year at 44.8.
- 28:46SPEAKER_01: We bounced back slightly, but we are still near historic lows.
- 28:52SPEAKER_01: Economists have uh have a word for that, for when sentiment is low and spending is dropping simultaneously, they say that's the beginning of a recession.
- 29:00SPEAKER_01: So I know that the uh you know, the economic outlook from the administration um is that we are going to enter a golden era.
- 29:10SPEAKER_01: Well, something needs to happen because even if those underlying beautiful uh positive facts and stats that I gave you earlier, even if those exist, if it has not hit the consumer yet, it doesn't matter.
- 29:28SPEAKER_01: Perception is reality, and perception of most people is they're looking in their wallets and they're seeing less right now.
- 29:34SPEAKER_01: And that's uh that's gotta change.
- 29:36SPEAKER_01: That's gotta change.
- 29:40SPEAKER_01: The big retailers report this week: Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, Walmart, and John Deere, all reported earnings this week.
- 29:51SPEAKER_01: These are the companies that see the American consumer up close on a personal level.
- 29:57SPEAKER_01: Their results and their guidance, especially what they say about the second half expectations, will be the corporate verdict on what the retail sales miss actually means.
- 30:11SPEAKER_01: Five years of inflation has a commu a cumulative toll.
- 30:20SPEAKER_01: You see that, ladies and gentlemen?
- 30:21SPEAKER_01: Got me all tongue-twisted with the finances, and that's what happens.
- 30:25SPEAKER_01: A cumulative toll.
- 30:26SPEAKER_01: Well, let's talk about that, right?
- 30:31SPEAKER_01: In 2021, the president of the United States at that time, Donald Trump, left office with a 2.4% inflation rate.
- 30:47SPEAKER_01: That inflation rate went from 2.4% to 9% in a span of about 8 to 15 months.
- 31:00SPEAKER_01: When you jump up from 2.4 to 9.6 in that short of time, how do you expect to come back to 2.4% with any kind of speed or velocity?
- 31:19SPEAKER_01: I don't think you could do anything other than put the right uh pieces in the puzzle and wait for the markets to respond naturally.
- 31:29SPEAKER_01: You can't go to 9.6%, it's like it'd be like going from, you know, 150 pounds to 400 pounds.
- 31:38SPEAKER_01: And then thinking, well, I can get back to the 150 pounds in no time at all.
- 31:42SPEAKER_01: It's not the way things work, folks.
- 31:45SPEAKER_01: And that's what happened.
- 31:47SPEAKER_01: And it's taken a toll.
- 31:49SPEAKER_01: So even if we're back down to 3.5%, it's still been a gradual decline from almost economic disaster and failure.
- 32:00SPEAKER_01: The economy isn't out of the woods yet from the threat that inflation poses for everyday Americans, but price pressures aren't hot to the touch either.
- 32:12SPEAKER_01: That was KPMG.
- 32:15SPEAKER_01: The economist trying to uh to be diplomatic, really.
- 32:20SPEAKER_01: The plain version is this Americans have been paying 3-4% plus annual inflation for five straight years.
- 32:28SPEAKER_01: The math is finally caught up.
- 32:30SPEAKER_01: That's what people are feeling.
- 32:34SPEAKER_01: What the consumer's telling you is when people stop spending at retail, despite strong nominal wages, it means one of two things.
- 32:44SPEAKER_01: Either they're saving because they're scared, which is a lot of it, I guarantee it right now, or they have simply run out of discretionary income, which is also a part of it.
- 32:53SPEAKER_01: I think it's a mixture of both.
- 32:56SPEAKER_01: The$18.8 trillion in household debt, the$6,500 average credit card balance at 21% interest, that is where the money's going instead of, you know, to target.
- 33:11SPEAKER_01: I'm not talking about the store.
- 33:16SPEAKER_01: Or am I?
- 33:18SPEAKER_01: Either way.
- 33:19SPEAKER_01: The target or the store target.
- 33:22SPEAKER_01: Both.
- 33:24SPEAKER_01: Not getting met, not getting any money spent inside of it.
- 33:29SPEAKER_01: The stagflation setup, falling retail sales, plus still elevated inflation, plus a Fed that is stuck between hiking or holding equals what we call stagflation.
- 33:41SPEAKER_01: Now it's not official, it's not officially called a stagflation, but these are this is the rhetoric that you're using when you're talking about stagflation in terms of what it feels like for the average American.
- 33:54SPEAKER_01: Our money buys less, we keep spending less.
- 34:00SPEAKER_01: The government's solution makes both problems worse.
- 34:07SPEAKER_01: That's the way Americans see it.
- 34:08SPEAKER_01: That's the perception that is many people's reality right now.
- 34:15SPEAKER_01: When consumer spending weakens and inflation stays elevated, paper assets get squeezed.
- 34:20SPEAKER_01: You know it's not a paper asset?
- 34:22SPEAKER_01: Gold and silver.
- 34:23SPEAKER_01: And it gets squeezed from both directions.
- 34:25SPEAKER_01: Corporate earnings face pressures, bond rates, uh bond face rates, a higher risk of uh of uh of those rates going up.
- 34:37SPEAKER_01: Physical gold and silver sit outside that squeeze.
- 34:40SPEAKER_01: That's the good thing about it.
- 34:42SPEAKER_01: They don't depend on the consumer being healthy or not.
- 34:46SPEAKER_01: And this is my favorite segment: getting into the gold in the silver market.
- 34:52SPEAKER_01: Gold is fluctuating between 4,380 and 4,450, reaching a high of 5,500 earlier this year.
- 35:01SPEAKER_01: Pulling back on treasury yields, but still up 24% year over year.
- 35:06SPEAKER_01: Again, when you look at the year over year, gold and silver, let me just tell you this: gold and silver are not meant to be short-term investments.
- 35:14SPEAKER_01: They're meant to be long-term investments.
- 35:17SPEAKER_01: The only reason we come here week after week after week after week is for people who want to stay up on what's going on in case they want to uh diversify, in case they want to buy more, in case they want to liquidate, in case they want to hold, in case they want to sell, new people listening for the very first time.
- 35:32SPEAKER_01: Again, this is the Crest report.
- 35:33SPEAKER_01: My name is Jeremy Harrell, GoldenCrestMetals.com.
- 35:38SPEAKER_01: But gold being between 4380 and 4450, pulling back slightly from last week's two-month high of 4450 solid, as Treasury yields spiked on the Iran escalation news.
- 35:54SPEAKER_01: Still, regardless of everything that's gone on from then until now, year over year, meaning last year, August 18th to right now, 24%.
- 36:07SPEAKER_01: That's your increase of your investment.
- 36:10SPEAKER_01: 24%.
- 36:14SPEAKER_01: Last week was gold's best since January, by the way.
- 36:17SPEAKER_01: After the July CPI came in, tame, and the September hike odds dropped, gold had its best weekly performance since January.
- 36:26SPEAKER_01: Gold mining stocks had their hottest five-day run since 2008.
- 36:31SPEAKER_01: The momentum is real, even if the week did bring some pullback.
- 36:35SPEAKER_01: So that's good news.
- 36:36SPEAKER_01: Now, again, why the pullback?
- 36:37SPEAKER_01: Well, Kushner said Iran is unwilling to compromise.
- 36:40SPEAKER_01: The 10-year Treasury hit 4.72%, a near one-year high, higher yields equal higher opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold, which equals short-term pressure.
- 36:52SPEAKER_01: This is the same mechanism every time war escalates, um, escalation has you know new hits to it.
- 36:59SPEAKER_01: You know, here's another thing, too, um that I want to talk about.
- 37:03SPEAKER_01: Uh Senator Rand Paul.
- 37:06SPEAKER_01: He went and visited Fort Knox last week.
- 37:08SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you know this or not.
- 37:11SPEAKER_01: If you haven't seen this, you might want to look this up.
- 37:13SPEAKER_01: We reported it and we covered it on LFA TV as well, too.
- 37:17SPEAKER_01: Um Senator Rand Paul went to Fort Knox last week with others and said that they were there to inspect the nation's gold reserves.
- 37:29SPEAKER_01: He said he said the the amount that should be there.
- 37:33SPEAKER_01: He said, I'm excited to be able to report what I'm gonna find out.
- 37:36SPEAKER_01: He went in there, he came out, obviously couldn't go in there and video it, but he came out and he said, on my word, every bit of it is accounted for, and boy, is it a sight.
- 37:47SPEAKER_01: Now, are we taking somebody at their word that all the gold and silver that's supposed to be in Fort Knox is there?
- 37:53SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
- 37:53SPEAKER_01: That's up to you, the listener.
- 37:54SPEAKER_01: I'm just reporting the news.
- 37:56SPEAKER_01: Senator Rand Paul went in, said he put his eyes on the physical uh gold that we have as a country, and he said it was all there and accounted for, and it was a sight to see.
- 38:10SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that's something that we've been wondering for quite some time, honestly.
- 38:18SPEAKER_01: Been wondering that for quite some time, and I think at least now we at least we have an answer.
- 38:22SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's an answer anybody except or not, but it is an answer.
- 38:26SPEAKER_01: Now, gold will be very sensitive to Warsh's speech on August 28th.
- 38:31SPEAKER_01: If he signals rates are going higher, short-term win uh headwind for gold.
- 38:36SPEAKER_01: If he signals that the Fed is comfortable holding, gold could break above 4,500 easily and test the four the 4,700 level and range.
- 38:46SPEAKER_01: The 50-day moving average, fairly quickly.
- 38:50SPEAKER_01: The 52-week range puts it into context as well.
- 38:53SPEAKER_01: The low is 3353, the high is fixed 56.27.
- 38:58SPEAKER_01: Gold currently trading in the lower half of its 52-week range, closer to the bottom than it is the top.
- 39:07SPEAKER_01: If banks are right, that it goes to 540 to 6,300, the current price is deeply discounted relative to where it's going.
- 39:16SPEAKER_01: China's still buying too.
- 39:18SPEAKER_01: That's another thing that we've got to take into account.
- 39:20SPEAKER_01: China and their central bank added approximately 20 tones in July, its biggest monthly purchase since October of 2023.
- 39:31SPEAKER_01: South Korea prepared its first physical gold buy since 2013.
- 39:35SPEAKER_01: The Deutsche Bank called gold, still in its explosive phase, still right now.
- 39:42SPEAKER_01: None of that continues to change.
- 39:44SPEAKER_01: You expect that to change week after week.
- 39:46SPEAKER_01: We expect it to come back, but it doesn't.
- 39:49SPEAKER_01: Gold is up 24% year over year.
- 39:53SPEAKER_01: It is pulling back this week on the Iran Escalation News and the Treasury yield pressure.
- 39:58SPEAKER_01: Both these headwinds are temporary.
- 40:00SPEAKER_01: The$40 trillion national debt, the Moody's downgrade, the Social Security Insolvency Clock, the Moody's downgrade, again, those are permanent.
- 40:10SPEAKER_01: Gold is on sale relative to where every major bank says it's going.
- 40:16SPEAKER_01: Gold is on sale.
- 40:17SPEAKER_01: Now let's talk about silver as we get ready to round out the show.
- 40:21SPEAKER_01: Silver in between 64 and 66 bucks for the last week.
- 40:25SPEAKER_01: Consolidating after its best week since February.
- 40:29SPEAKER_01: You want to know where silver is year over year?
- 40:31SPEAKER_01: That's why I love silver.
- 40:32SPEAKER_01: 73%.
- 40:34SPEAKER_01: That means if you bought silver a year ago, it's worth 73% more than you bought it for right now.
- 40:41SPEAKER_01: Mmm, love that.
- 40:43SPEAKER_01: Up 17% over the past 30 days.
- 40:48SPEAKER_01: Silver's rocketing.
- 40:49SPEAKER_01: I love it.
- 40:51SPEAKER_01: Flat to slightly down this week as it consolidates after last week's best weekly performance since February.
- 40:58SPEAKER_01: Silver rebounded from around 57 to close near 66 bucks.
- 41:03SPEAKER_01: A move roughly, which is about 16% in a single week.
- 41:07SPEAKER_01: Driven by the soft CPI and the dropping rate hike odds.
- 41:11SPEAKER_01: That kind of weekly performance, that's not normal, guys.
- 41:14SPEAKER_01: It also signals pent-up demand releasing, too.
- 41:17SPEAKER_01: So think about that as you go into this week, as you go into next month, as you go into your next purchase of gold and silver.
- 41:26SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you what, I can't wait to get more.
- 41:28SPEAKER_01: I can't wait to get more.
- 41:31SPEAKER_01: You guys all know I'm a silver guy, but that's only because I, you know, it's a little different, it's a little difficult for me at this point to be, you know, buying in so much uh with a high price of gold.
- 41:41SPEAKER_01: But more, but I'll tell you, gold is so rock solid.
- 41:44SPEAKER_01: Silver's so beautiful right now.
- 41:46SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you, now is the time, folks.
- 41:49SPEAKER_01: Now is the time.
- 41:50SPEAKER_01: You know, I bought my last silver when it was around$87 an ounce.
- 41:53SPEAKER_01: And you don't hear me complaining that it's in the$66 range.
- 41:56SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
- 41:57SPEAKER_01: I know what this is.
- 41:59SPEAKER_01: I know this is temporary.
- 42:00SPEAKER_01: I've seen it, I've watched it, we've lived it week after week.
- 42:06SPEAKER_01: After a 16% week, a pause and consolidation is healthy.
- 42:11SPEAKER_01: It should happen.
- 42:12SPEAKER_01: You want it to happen.
- 42:14SPEAKER_01: Silver is digesting the move.
- 42:16SPEAKER_01: The question is whether the 63 to 65 zone becomes the new floor.
- 42:22SPEAKER_01: Every analyst watching silver is focused on whether it can hold above 63 and make another attempt at 70.
- 42:32SPEAKER_01: Now I want to go through the gold to silver ratio because this is another important uh stat that you should have.
- 42:39SPEAKER_01: It's around 67 to 1, compressed slightly from 69 to 1 last week when silver outperformed.
- 42:46SPEAKER_01: Historical long run average is closer to 16 to 1.
- 42:52SPEAKER_01: When gold runs to 54 to 60 to 6,000 as the banks project, a ratio compression toward even 50 to 1 implies silver being at 108 to 120 dollars an ounce.
- 43:07SPEAKER_01: You have to understand these ratios, folks, and how they've always lived symbiotically somewhere in the very predictable range.
- 43:18SPEAKER_01: That math is what the structural silver bull case is built on.
- 43:22SPEAKER_01: China imported 62% more silver year over year in June.
- 43:28SPEAKER_01: Solar capacity additions in 2026 are on pace for another record year.
- 43:32SPEAKER_01: EV production continues growing.
- 43:35SPEAKER_01: AI chip infrastructure continues growing.
- 43:38SPEAKER_01: All of it needs silver.
- 43:41SPEAKER_01: None of it stops because the war is unresolved.
- 43:46SPEAKER_01: The supply deficit is still running as well.
- 43:49SPEAKER_01: Again, we say this every week, but I'll continue to say it.
- 43:52SPEAKER_01: This is the sixth consecutive year.
- 43:55SPEAKER_01: 46 million ounce shortfall came in 2026.
- 44:00SPEAKER_01: Supply growing 0.3%.
- 44:02SPEAKER_01: When the rate headwinds clear, as they will when the Fed eventually pivots, both the monetary and the industrial engines of silver demand fire simultaneously.
- 44:13SPEAKER_01: Silver was$37 a year ago.
- 44:16SPEAKER_01: It's$64 to$66 a day.
- 44:18SPEAKER_01: That's a 73% gain in 12 months through a war, through the worst rate hike environment in years, and we're seeing that kind of increase through massive geopolitical uncertainty.
- 44:30SPEAKER_01: The structural forces are working.
- 44:32SPEAKER_01: The consolidation after 16% week is not a problem.
- 44:36SPEAKER_01: It is the setup for the next move.
- 44:38SPEAKER_01: That is what we need to do.
- 44:40SPEAKER_01: And to round it out here, I just want to end with this, folks, okay?
- 44:45SPEAKER_01: The government can still freeze your money.
- 44:48SPEAKER_01: Your joy and your gold are the only two things they can't touch.
- 44:53SPEAKER_01: You understand that?
- 44:58SPEAKER_01: So here's what we have.
- 45:00SPEAKER_01: We have the genius to act stable coin cage.
- 45:06SPEAKER_01: Remember that story that I told you a couple weeks ago?
- 45:11SPEAKER_01: Where the one program was hacking the other program and this, that, and the other.
- 45:17SPEAKER_01: The legislation that banned the CBDC, central banking digital currency, also created its surveillance twin through stable coins.
- 45:25SPEAKER_01: Every transaction trackable, every account freezable.
- 45:28SPEAKER_01: Tether has already frozen$4.4 billion in wallets in coordination with law enforcement.
- 45:34SPEAKER_01: Not a future threat.
- 45:36SPEAKER_01: Already done, done, been done, done.
- 45:38SPEAKER_01: Already happened.
- 45:45SPEAKER_01: Bank accounts, debit accounts, Zell, Venmo, all of it runs through that infrastructure.
- 45:50SPEAKER_01: Tracked, reportable, freezable.
- 45:54SPEAKER_01: Is that what you want?
- 45:56SPEAKER_01: It's not what I want.
- 45:58SPEAKER_01: Folks, that's going to do it for the Crest Report.
- 46:00SPEAKER_01: Remember, goldencrestmetals.com slash report.
- 46:04SPEAKER_01: Text the word report to metals.
- 46:06SPEAKER_01: That's 638257.
- 46:08SPEAKER_01: Or call 888-991-6222 today.
- 46:16SPEAKER_01: That is 888-991-6222 today.
- 46:23SPEAKER_01: Or go to GoldenCrest Medals.com slash report again for your free portfolio review.
- 46:27SPEAKER_01: Free investor kitten up to$25,000 in free silver.
- 46:31SPEAKER_01: Thank you guys all for joining us here on the Crest Report.
- 46:34SPEAKER_01: Again, my name is Jeremy Harrell.
- 46:36SPEAKER_01: At any time during this day, you can call 888-991-6222.
- 46:40SPEAKER_01: Get a hold of somebody at the Golden Crest Medals headquarters today.
- 46:45SPEAKER_01: I can promise you they're there, and I can promise you they want to talk to you.
- 46:49SPEAKER_01: Have a great day, everybody.
- 46:50SPEAKER_01: I hope you had the mess the uh information that you needed today, and we'll see you next week, right here on the Crest Report.
- 46:57SPEAKER_01: Have a good one, folks.
- 46:59SPEAKER_00: You've been listening to the Crest Report, where markets meet reality, brought to you by Golden Crest Medals.
- 47:05SPEAKER_00: For your free portfolio review and free no obligation investor kit, plus up to$25,000 in free silver with qualified purchases.
- 47:13SPEAKER_00: Text the word report to M E T I L S.
- 47:17SPEAKER_00: That's report to 638-257.
- 47:21SPEAKER_00: Or call 888-991-6222.
- 47:25SPEAKER_00: Or visit GoldenCrestmetals.com.
- 47:28SPEAKER_00: See you next week.