Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 44 : Droppable Bats
Transcript
- 0:15Hello, and welcome everybody to episode forty four of Cards and Categories. I'm
- 0:20Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined here as always by my very good friend Jeremy
- 0:25Burr, also from ras ball. How are you doing tonight, Bud?
- 0:28Doing just fine, getting ready for the summerting, ready for the warm heat
- 0:33to start, taking fly balls out of the ballpark. So really ready for
- 0:39the summer to be here. But lots going on this week. I don't
- 0:42feel like as many injuries. I don't think we've lost five obliques this week,
- 0:45but definitely a lot going on. So excited to get into it today.
- 0:50Yeah, I mean, I guess I should knock on wood, but
- 0:52it was a very slow pitcher injury week, which has been really rare.
- 0:56But yeah, I think a part of it too, is like with this
- 0:59summer, all those balls flying out of the ballyard, you're gonna be able
- 1:03to analyze everybody's individual swings. Now as stat Cast released a lot of bat
- 1:08metrics. I was gonna say bad at ball, but it's just straight up
- 1:11bat metrics in terms of swing length and things like swords and just like all
- 1:22all sorts of other stats in terms of like sweet spot percentage, and I've
- 1:26been really enjoying like the just being able to see like what new options we
- 1:30have along with like average swing speed, which I did learn is actually I
- 1:34think maybe a little bit more telling than average bad at ball speed, because
- 1:41I was listening to Effectively Wild today and Mike Petriello from MLB dot com was
- 1:46on there and explained actually that the average swing speed is of their like top
- 1:53ninety percentile and above like average swings, so it is like all the swings
- 1:57that they're working on. I was to first it'd just be like everybody's straight
- 2:01up average. But with this, how are you incorporating some of these new
- 2:07batmantrics into your analysis? Being the local top one hundred hitter guy, Yeah,
- 2:13it's I haven't figured it out. I think that's the funny part is,
- 2:16like, you know, you don't have to be an expert to know
- 2:21if you swing hard, the ball goes further. I remember playing back in
- 2:27my playing days and I had a coach one time and told me, you're
- 2:29pretty good, just swing harder. Uh. He was very good as a
- 2:34coach, by the way, just like you weren't already trying, you know,
- 2:38yeah, just because clearly I was just going up there and swinging apparently
- 2:40like Louise Rayas if you haven't looked U Louise Arrayahs is by far away the
- 2:46slowest of bat speed out in the MLB, but makes up for it by
- 2:52squaring up a ball, and so I guess we shouldn't be surprised by that.
- 2:57And then on the old other end of the spectrum is none other than
- 3:00who we expect gian Carlos Stanton right swing as hard as possible, just hoping
- 3:05he runs into one. So yeah, I think that to me, it's
- 3:07one of those I'm kind of looking for the outliers, uh, you know,
- 3:12the big names that are kind of jumping up to the top of the
- 3:15list, that have really good bat speed and if they could just kind of
- 3:19controlled a little bit, could start to run into something. So, you
- 3:22know, just throwing a few names out of you that kind of jump out
- 3:24of like, hey, this might be somebody's interesting to look at. Christopher
- 3:30Morell top six in average bat speed this season. I think that definitely jumps
- 3:38out there as as an interesting one. Joe Adell eighth on bat speed.
- 3:45There it starts a lot of guys here expect Julio you know, shore Brow
- 3:51and Neil Cruz Soto, all kinds of guys jumping out there. But you
- 3:57know, it's gonna be interesting to see se how well this tracks against actual
- 4:03production from a power perspective. And I'm loving the fact that you just could
- 4:09actually see a lot more a lot more slices of the data that we didn't
- 4:15have before. Makes it makes it fun. I don't know how telling it
- 4:18is. I don't know how well it's going to play long term, but
- 4:23it gives us another queue to you guys that swing hard, hit the ball
- 4:27a long way, and I bet you there's some weird correlation here between strikeout
- 4:31rate, how hard you swing, and how well you barrel the ball that
- 4:35really directly points to your power production. So I got some regression analysis to
- 4:42do later tonight. Yeah, And I mean, I'm gonna be leaving it
- 4:46to you or other experts out there to maybe parse a little bit of this
- 4:49data for me. I do agree that, like it is a little hard
- 4:53to try to figure out what we're doing with it, especially given that we
- 4:56only have twenty twenty four data right now, so it's kind of difficult to
- 5:00see any sorts of trends. And I think we're It'll especially come in handy
- 5:04is if you think somebody is banged up in not playing at one hundred percent,
- 5:10you can compare their you know, swing speed for the past however many
- 5:15days, hopefully slicing and dicing the data to his average to be able to
- 5:20figure that out. That I think that's going to be one of the keys
- 5:25that comes out of the here. But otherwise, I do think a lot
- 5:28of these things were already kind of included in barrels and hard hit percentage and
- 5:30things like that. It's just kind of cool to actually get the data behind
- 5:35it. And a lot of these things are also just confirming what the eye
- 5:40test was already telling me. You know, of course, tall dudes have
- 5:44long swings, and of course Jinkao hits it really hard. I think the
- 5:47most fascinating thing for me is I have been enjoying the scatterplot of average bat
- 5:53speed versus squared up percentage that the stat cast has, and you can just
- 5:58see the outliers with a rise and stanton like you're talking about. But the
- 6:01other huge outlier in his really like all in quadrant is Juan Soto, and
- 6:08so it just really goes to show that Juan Soto is maybe the greatest hitter
- 6:14that we've seen with then I don't even maybe since like Griffy, but even
- 6:19Griffy didn't have necessarily like the eye or back control that Juan Soto has that
- 6:24you might all have to go all the way back to Ted Williams. Like
- 6:28that's how superb wan Soda. I didn't want to say, but that was
- 6:30the name that was in my head. Like when you talk about pure like
- 6:33control and power that know what they're doing with the stick, like Soto sticks
- 6:39out and like there is I can't take another name out that I think of
- 6:43other than Ted Williams with that curdus of that capability. There's other guys,
- 6:46don't get me wrong, but yeah, it jumps out. The one that
- 6:49jumps to me, which you know, you look at this top to bottom
- 6:53right power hitters at the top, maybe a few guys are like oh,
- 6:57wine drive guys that they get by guys at the bottom they're more singles hit
- 7:00or things like that. The one that's really jumped out to me, and
- 7:03this is where it would be wonderful to have year over year data is Justin
- 7:08Turner for the Blue Jays. He is in the first percentile or batspeed,
- 7:14and he has hard hYP metrics right in the middle of the league, you
- 7:16know, his sex sluggings sixty fourth percentile, Like it is the one thing
- 7:23way down there and that really jumps out, which for me, for a
- 7:27guy hit twenty three homers last year, it's really drawn into question of like,
- 7:30is he's finally slowing down? And so I think that's the kind of
- 7:33thing that I'm going to start to pull from this. Are is this gonna
- 7:38be something that actually normalizes faster than some of the other other metrics that we
- 7:42have. Yeah, I think along with that too, is we're missing the
- 7:46component of the weight of the pack. That there's that factor too, because
- 7:51obviously, you know kind of classic physics, you do wonder if maybe just
- 7:57Justin Turner is up there carrying I'm not gonna lie, I don't know exactly
- 8:01what ounces of bats are considered super heavy, but you know, I know
- 8:05Babe Bruce smung a really heavy bat, and so maybe he's got up there
- 8:09with a George Herman Ruth bat that that might be a factor too. So
- 8:13I think there's it's gonna be fascinating to see where this goes and kind of
- 8:18what we can take from it going forward, but I'm sure that we'll start
- 8:22getting it integrated into all sorts of projections and other sorts of pieces of data
- 8:28analysis that we've come used to in our fantasy baseball game. Well, you
- 8:33have to you have to love the fact that they added swords. They added
- 8:37the pitching ninja swords on there. And I don't know, have you looked
- 8:39to see who is number one in swords so far the season? No,
- 8:43I didn't. I didn't look at the swords. Who is it? So
- 8:48we have from the Angels of Anaheim. I'm not really technically Anahei anymore,
- 8:52but more fun to say zach Netto. He has thirteen swords this year and
- 8:58he's leading Kyle Schwarz and rally for Nando C. J. Abrams. Like
- 9:01all these guys there's like they're just swing incredibly hard and sometimes look like an
- 9:07idiot doing it. And then you have Zacnetto doesn't swing hard at all.
- 9:13It just looks like a fool up there. So I guess that's I don't
- 9:16know that that gives any value whatsoever. Like that statistic is just fun.
- 9:20Yeah, it'll be more interesting to use that, I think on the pictures
- 9:24side. But it's just I think it'll equivalate to if you think about like
- 9:28what a sword is, it's usually picture generated to you. I think is
- 9:33that you know, it's somebody who I traditionally think of has a nasty slider
- 9:39that tunnels well with a fastball and is really fooling guys. So I think
- 9:43that's going to be useful maybe from a picture side. But even even when
- 9:48Mike Petrell was talking about and effectively wild, he was saying it's just for
- 9:52funds, He's like, he's I mean the fact that you know they actually
- 9:58define it as there's actually an actual definition. But the sword is when a
- 10:03pitcher makes the better look awful, Like there's a true definition of like swinging
- 10:07strite incomplete swing, tenth percentile uh speed swing, Like all these things was
- 10:13just like just they look bad. So I think that's gonna be fun.
- 10:16That that's gonna move you automatically down to my rank just a little bit.
- 10:20Okay, yeah, that'll be. It'll be. I didn't think about that,
- 10:24like, yeah, using it to tick down because of just recognition,
- 10:30Yeah, exactly, just that now it's more of just being petty. Okay,
- 10:35Well, we've got a great show lined up today. In our second
- 10:39half, we are going to analyze some fantasy bats out there that, honestly,
- 10:45we're just over a quarter of the way into the season, so you're
- 10:48looking to possibly cut some of the guys that you spent decently high draft capital
- 10:54on just because of poor performance. And so we'll go through guys that were
- 11:00cutting, guys that were keeping, guys that were watching in terms of bats
- 11:03that just haven't been performing us from the fantasy side. And let's start with
- 11:07two of them in our news and notes and injury section that we open up
- 11:13with, because I think they would both would have ended up in our cuts
- 11:16possibly at least I know the first one I'm going to talk about would have
- 11:22been maybe a little bit more of a on the edge for me, but
- 11:24the second one certainly a cut. And the first one we're going to discuss
- 11:28here is Dancy Swanson, shortstop for the Chicago Cubs, was felled with a
- 11:35sprained knee. It sounds like he's been battling it for a little while,
- 11:39so we were both looking for news on the injury before we started potting here
- 11:43on May fifteenth, that it doesn't seem like he's got like a set return
- 11:50date, but usually sprain knees are somewhere like two to four weeks. But
- 11:54Dancy Swanson's also been struggling this year, So do you think that this sprain
- 11:58knee has been affecting a lot of that production? And I mean, are
- 12:03you possibly cutting Danceby Swanson in leagues where you might need that roster spot.
- 12:09Yeah, I I think I am, Like, I does the knee potentially
- 12:15put a little uh I'll say slow in the giddy up for the swing,
- 12:20Yeah, a little bit. But at the end of the day, like
- 12:22this is the third season and you know, or I guess two seasons in
- 12:26a row where he's really been dropping off. I could argue it's the third
- 12:30in a row that he's been dropping off, where his uh hey rates you
- 12:33know, continue has continue to rise, his averages dropping, his hard hit
- 12:37rates are are dropping. Like he's he just doesn't look right, whether it's
- 12:41injury or not. You know, I'm I'm kind of okay with moving on
- 12:46Dansby. If he's out two to four weeks and maybe he needs a little
- 12:50time to rehab on the back of it with being need I wouldn't be too
- 12:52surprised. I want to see that that get tested out, like if we're
- 12:56talking, you know, mid to late June, he gets back. I'm
- 13:00okay moving on from Dansby. You know, if I looked at his thought
- 13:03profile and it was like really red in twenty two, this is very deep
- 13:09analysis, by the way, it was deep red quase I read, and
- 13:11now it was just average, Like he's he just has not kind of kept
- 13:15up with with what he needed to and he's coming back as just an average
- 13:20player at this point. And he's not running a ton, he's not hitting
- 13:24for a ton of power, not yet on base like it's it's just average
- 13:28production across the board. I didn't look at his wrs T plus, but
- 13:31hopefully that low, oh below average so and he was just average last year.
- 13:37So I moved on from Dansby. I'm not too concerned with him coming
- 13:43back. You know, if if he was healthy, i'd probably have been
- 13:46on the border or say, hey, I'm willing to give him a little
- 13:48bit more leash. But now that he's hurt, it's time to move on.
- 13:52Yeah, And I do remember during drafts season that Danceby Swanson was always
- 13:56one of those players when I would look at the values in my draft sheets.
- 14:00He's usually using bad X and putting it through the auction calculator on fangrafts,
- 14:05but it always popped that he was consistently in like a standard five x
- 14:09five twelve team Roto league was up near like twenty dollars in value, and
- 14:16you'd just be like, huh, I don't know if I get that.
- 14:18And part of it was because the projections were very bullish on him, Like
- 14:22I'm looking at Steamer before season, they had him projected for twenty two homers
- 14:28and ten stolen bases with a two fifty average. That's already started to tick
- 14:31down as Steamer has him down for a two to forty three average now going
- 14:35forward and what would pace out to about sixteen seventeen homers. So all the
- 14:41projections are picking up the poor production from Swanson out the gate here in twenty
- 14:46four and you do wonder. I mean, he is thirty, which is
- 14:52I mean, it's old a little bit in baseball terms, but he's also
- 14:56been around and played a lot of games. He's played a lot of postseason
- 14:58series that you do wonder what the wear and tear on him being a shortstop
- 15:03has been. And obviously, like once you start hitting thirty, that aging
- 15:07curve kind of comes for everybody in Major League Baseball, So I think dan
- 15:11Sby Swanson is just maybe running into that a little bit. And obviously the
- 15:16unknown is what the spray knee was doing it to his production as he's trying
- 15:20to play through it. But I do think that this is kind of where
- 15:24I don't especially if he's battling because sprainnee, you're not looking for too many
- 15:28stone bases out Dansby Swanson, and that was really what kind of buoyed his
- 15:33value all the time for our fantasy game. Is that like he would be
- 15:37almost like I said it, forget it, ten to fifteen stolen based sort
- 15:41of player, and then without that kind of production holding him up, it
- 15:46makes him a lot more difficult to roster. Yep, I think you're right,
- 15:52and I think the time is to cut bait with the Vanderbilt Star.
- 15:56Yeah, okay, well this next thing, I actually cut bait in one
- 15:58of our league's on him, and that is Cabrian Hayes' third baseman for the
- 16:03Pittsburgh Pirates. He hit the injured list for a general back issue and this
- 16:10has just been an ongoing problem now for Cabrian Hayes for three or four years,
- 16:15honestly, pretty much all of his career since he's been called up and
- 16:19manned the hot corner for Pittsburgh. And that's a lot of the reason why
- 16:25I cut him. It was in our Autnew League, which is a forty
- 16:29man roster dynasty, like a salary salary captain dynasty format, And that's a
- 16:36big reason why I cut him is because at this point, you want to
- 16:40talk about an average hitter. Cabrian Hayes is a ninety seven WRC plus on
- 16:45his career with a two sixty two average, what paces out to honestly like
- 16:49a mid teens homers and mid teen stone base guy with just not very much
- 16:56in terms of runs in RBI because he plays for the Pirates and this back
- 17:00injury, I'm just kind of tired of it because I don't know if it's
- 17:03actually something he's ever going to overcome. And Hayes almost is the equivalent of
- 17:11the infield Brian Byron Buxton to me, in terms of like Buxton deals with
- 17:15his knees. It looks like Hayes just can't get over these back issues that
- 17:18have really lingered for a long time. And so that's why I moved on
- 17:22from him. Are you moving on from him in leagues where you might have
- 17:26had ownership shares? Yeah, you know, if Yandy Diaz and Brian Byron
- 17:30Buxton had a child, it would have been to Brian Hayes. And I
- 17:36say that because Diaz can't put the ball in the air and Buxton can't say
- 17:40pay healthy. I was about to be like, where's the defense come from.
- 17:42I said, oh, yeah, Buxton dot Yeah. But you know
- 17:47I'm going to be the contrarian just a little bit here. And not that
- 17:52I don't agree. I actually almost tried to pick him up after you dropped
- 17:57him in our league. Financial has got a little tight in that one due
- 18:03to some other transactions, so I've had to back off of that, just
- 18:06just for anybody out there's listening. And he still forbid. I will not
- 18:08be bidding on him now. But when I say I'm back off with a
- 18:12little bit, is that in a deeper league, I think this is the
- 18:18one place I would look to potentially buy Hayes. And when I say bye,
- 18:21I'm not like going out to acquire him. I would be willing to
- 18:25pick him up and put on my bench and the reason for that is with
- 18:30two changes, he stick injuries beside, he needs to hit the ball in
- 18:34the air more, which I think we would know that's the issue if he
- 18:40does that. And he's really changed the approach of the plate this year.
- 18:45He is not swinging as much. He's got a little cav on bigio on
- 18:49us and the things that he's swinging at, I'm making contact with the things
- 18:55outside the zone and he's not swinging at the things inside the zone when they
- 18:59are pit and so that's caused him to a lot of his metrics look poor
- 19:03because it's kind of this poor pitch selection as he's he appears that he's trying
- 19:07to be more patients showing up. He's striking out less, you know,
- 19:12and that's a good thing generally, but he wasn't terribly bad strikeout to start
- 19:19with. And so you know, as the walkserver almost doubled this year versus
- 19:23last year, strikeouts have dropped maybe five points, and it looks like that's
- 19:27intentional, and I think he just needs to figure out, like that's not
- 19:32who you are. You just need to a little aggressive. So that to
- 19:34me is a quick fix, and that brings him back to where he was
- 19:38last year, and then if he can hit the ball in the air,
- 19:41he's actually really exciting. So the only reason I'm looking at him maybe as
- 19:45a buye is that it's not too hard to see him being more valuable.
- 19:49But I'm not spending more than a free agent pick up on him at this
- 19:52point. So it's it's one of those that when you're talk talking about droppable
- 19:56in a league where you get cash back for your fab bye or something like
- 20:00that, Yeah, no problem with it. If you need to make another
- 20:03move, no problem with it. But I'm not fully out on him at
- 20:07this point. Okay, the next injury we got just happened today to your
- 20:11beloved Nick Lodolo from the Cincinnati Reds, as he is shelved with a strained
- 20:18groin on his left leg. That's the same leg that he's had the troubles
- 20:22with on the calf, and supposedly he's only going to be on the injured
- 20:27list for the minimum stay that that's what they're saying in Cincinnati. Seems like
- 20:33it's a pretty minor groin issue. But this is now kind of like what
- 20:40I think, this is why I was out on the dolo as I was
- 20:41worried about this sort of outcome is you know, the lower leg stretch fracture
- 20:48that he dealt with last year didn't seem to have fully healed a that's really
- 20:52what he was battling again within the spring, and now we're seeing where that
- 20:56comes through on the Kennedict chain. In response with the Reds just called up
- 21:02a reliever that they moved. Actually, I think they were just rolling with
- 21:06a six man rotation now that I look at it, So maybe it makes
- 21:08it kind of easy on the Reds there. But Nicklodolo had been pitching fairly
- 21:14well, you know, in terms of providing those strikeouts that we've been looking
- 21:17for in our fantasy game, especially in the back end of the pitture pool.
- 21:22I had a three thirty four er to go along with a two ninety
- 21:26five. I don't disagree that Nickotldolo is a talented pitcher, but this injury
- 21:30history has just become really worrisome for me. And so this is I mean,
- 21:36I don't have any shares because where he was going in drafts or on
- 21:41auction values during the draft season just was out of my range. But I'm
- 21:45checking in on you to see what you're thinking about your boy Nickelodolo down in
- 21:51Cincinnati. Now, I love Nickelodola as simple as that. You know it's
- 21:56and you knew that was the answer. Like Nickelodola does all the things you
- 21:59look for. It's the health, it's the question. And you know,
- 22:03I look at this one as, yes, he's hurt, but they're being
- 22:06cautious, like he didn't get hurt in a start, like he basically was
- 22:10having a nagging injury, some nagging stuff, and they're like, hey,
- 22:14we're not testing this. Like the guy's being really good, Let's give him
- 22:17a week off. You'd like skip a start and come back. Like that's
- 22:21the way I'm looking at this one. If somebody's panicking, I'd take the
- 22:23gamble on him. But the Dola was pretty gosh turned cheap at the draft
- 22:26table. Everybody's scared of the injury. But there's really nothing in his profile
- 22:30that shows that he's not like the picture that he is right now. There's
- 22:34nothing in this profile says he's not going to continue to be the guy that
- 22:38delivers a reasonable whip, strikes out eleven or twelve per nine, carries a
- 22:45mid threes the high threes era, like there's nothing to say, that's not
- 22:48who he is. It's just the injury risk. And so if somebody's if
- 22:52somebody is looking to get out on Lodolo, I don't think this into the
- 22:55injury that takes him out. Now. It could just be another month or
- 22:59two because this Dolo Brian Hayes version and he could be out at that point.
- 23:06But yeah, I'm still sticking around with Lodolo. There's gonna be a
- 23:08little regression at some point here, but if they're taking care of them,
- 23:12I'm I'm I'm just peachy. Okay. Yeah, so neither of us have
- 23:18changed, uh with the needle at all. On Nicolodela. That's great.
- 23:25Again, Remind me next year when we have these New Year's resolutions about pictures
- 23:27and injuries. That was the most empty resolution I've ever made. Yeah,
- 23:37Okay. The next injury we got, and I think this one's going to
- 23:41be more impactful to our fantasy game than I think people may be giving credence
- 23:45to off the bat is First baseman Reese Hockens Hoskins for the Milwaukee Brewers went
- 23:52down yesterday with a strained hamstring. Looks like this one's going to keep him
- 23:56out about a month, so that should put him back sometime in mid to
- 24:02late June. Why say this is pretty significant for our fantasy game is that
- 24:07corner infield and first base has been kind of rough honestly, as you know,
- 24:12people like Bladimir gral Junior has fallen on his face and Pete Alonso hasn't
- 24:17been hitting great. So actually, Hoskins comes in as currently our eleventh ranked
- 24:25first baseman on the Player Raider to date, it's technically twelve if you type
- 24:30in first base, but I took out sole prize. You're not using him
- 24:33at first base, so that's pretty I mean, he's gonna that's a pretty
- 24:37big chunk to replace, especially given the power production you were getting Avays Hoskins.
- 24:41He had provided nine homers and twenty seven RBI. The batting average is
- 24:47where it's been for him at two thirty three, but that was a really
- 24:51steady source at first base for RBIs and home runs. Looks like the majority
- 24:56of the playing time will be siphoned up by Jake Bowers and Gary Sanchez in
- 25:02Milwaukee, which I'm kind of interested in Gary Sanchez. He's been sawd this
- 25:07year as well. Now, so going forward that that could be a pretty
- 25:11nice pickup for our catcher pool overall that Gary Sanchez has been hitting for good
- 25:18power and doing his Gary Sanchez thing now picks up a few more at bats
- 25:22as ree Hoskins is on the injured list, So Brew, I mean,
- 25:27I think we're both holding Reee Hoskins because of just like I said, he's
- 25:33the eleventh ranked first baseman that's usable in all leagues. But do you think
- 25:38that Jake Bauers and Gary Sanchez you want to be taking a shot on either
- 25:42of them while Reece Hoskins might be up for a month. Yeah, You're
- 25:47absolutely right. Hoskins as a hold, not much you can do there.
- 25:49So it's unfortunate, you know, neither I see the intrigue with Sanchez.
- 25:55I've been burned too many times. I'm just not picking up that that that
- 25:59hot play at this point. But you know, I kind of look at
- 26:03as a question of is this another chance for Tyler Black to get called up
- 26:06here in a week or two? You know, I think that would be
- 26:08the most exciting thing that comes out of this for me, is Black gets
- 26:12up. It's a chance, you know, I feel like he didn't really
- 26:15when he was called up he just didn't have a chance where he was.
- 26:18He was sent back down, so that would be the piece, And I'm
- 26:21kind of watching to see, Hey, does does Tyler Black get called up
- 26:25here and get a chance to actually, you know, become a mainstay and
- 26:29force a Joey Ortiz or something like that out once once Hoskin comes back.
- 26:34So that's what I'm watching for. Is it gonna happen? Probably not.
- 26:38I think they would have already made that move if that's the case, But
- 26:44who knows. We'll see. Yeah, I don't think they are because it
- 26:47does seem like, despite his thirty six percent strikeout rate right now, that
- 26:52Jake Bowers is going to get plenty of playing time in Milwaukee. There.
- 26:56I've fallen Jake power so many times just because he was such a hot prospect
- 27:00coming up, and you can just see it in the profile like it's it.
- 27:07It's intriguing because of the stolen bases he can provide at first base.
- 27:10But do you have any interest in Jake Bowers? Because it does. I
- 27:14mean, it does look like he's gonna get playing time in Milwaukee, So
- 27:17I mean, it's not like a where we have to worry about him getting
- 27:21benched or cut that like, as long as Hoskins is out for this month,
- 27:25Jake Bowers should be in there. Yeah. I think he's an interesting
- 27:27streamer at this point, like when and it feels weird to stream stolen bases
- 27:32and I know that's your specialty in the way you wire discussions of like watching
- 27:36to see maybe who's catching and getting a chance to take a corner infield first
- 27:41basement that can actually get to some steals is what's intriguing there. So maybe
- 27:47as a streamer, I might be interested if I really don't have great,
- 27:51you know, first base corner infield options, i'd be interested, But long
- 27:55term I'm staying away. Okay, gotcha? Okay. Then the next injury
- 28:00have is the most significant one that we've got on the evening, and that
- 28:03is Jung Ho Lee from the San Francisco Giants ran into the wall the other
- 28:08day. Looks like he separated his shoulder and he's going in for a second
- 28:12opinion with I think it's doctor Neil Trash tomorrow on Thursday of sixteenth. That's
- 28:18never what you want to hear because that usually pretends some sort of significant surgery,
- 28:25which is unfortunate for the rookie center fielder. I'm guessing that you've probably
- 28:33I don't even know if you've had any shares of Jungo Lee, just because
- 28:37it doesn't really seem like our type of player in terms of just that batting
- 28:41average first sort of profile that we're looking for a little more power. But
- 28:47what are you doing with Lee? I mean, it's possible he might be
- 28:51out for the rest of the season, but even going forward and maybe some
- 28:53sort of keeper dynasty situations. Yeah, I think you know, if you're
- 29:00in a redraft league, I'm holy until the news comes out is where I'm
- 29:04at here. Just make sure. But I think you're right. The writing's
- 29:08on the wall. He's going to be out for a while. If I'm
- 29:11in a redraft or in a dynasty type league, you know it got a
- 29:15hold. And he's the kind of guy just assuming he's gonna be out for
- 29:18a while. I'm looking at the trade deadline trying to flip for a team
- 29:23that's out of it and saying, hey, I know he's out now,
- 29:26he'll be back next year. He can keep him cheap, that kind of
- 29:27thing. That's why i'd be looking to But I'm just not that excited about
- 29:32him. I'm just you know, there's there's a lot of heart, there's
- 29:34a lot of hustle, there's a lot of fun. There's a that's a
- 29:37good ball player. But from a fancy perspective, it's just not what you're
- 29:40looking at. I'm actually more excited about the guys that I keep playing time
- 29:44than I am for for Johno Lee here, Yeah exactly. I mean,
- 29:48I think my favorite of the guys who are in there now is Luis Mato
- 29:53should take over center field for Lee going forward, and Helio Ramos has been
- 29:59in left field as Jorge Hilaire has been down with an injury. I'm more
- 30:03of a Ramos guy because I love the just the hard hit metrics that Ramos
- 30:07produces. That he is going to strike out a lot. But if you
- 30:11want to talk about somebody who can absolutely smoke a baseball and be able to
- 30:18find some of that power and honestly reminds me a little bit of like Joe
- 30:23adell Is, Helio Ramos you know, had that prospect type, has the
- 30:29contact issues, still waiting for the all the tools to come together as twenty
- 30:33four year old. But yeah, what do you see in Ramos? In
- 30:37Matos down there in San Francisco. Yeah, I'm a huge fan of Matos.
- 30:42I really think there's a luck like there. You like the high upside,
- 30:48high power guys. I kind of like the guys that maybe the floor
- 30:51is a little a little bit more. Matos is the kind of guy,
- 30:53like his career high of strike up percent was sixteen percent in high A Like,
- 31:00this is a guy that the walks basically as much as he strikes out.
- 31:03You know, he he consistently hits you know, high two hundreds,
- 31:07three hundred in the major or in the minors, and decent power. So
- 31:12we're looking at the guy who's you know, a fifteen fifteen to twenty twenty
- 31:17type guy at his peak, and he's just twenty two, Like he's he's
- 31:19still young, still figuring it out. So you know, he is a
- 31:26small guy too, he's five to eleven one sixty, So the power actually
- 31:30is very incredible for that, and it's questionable how much that will play in
- 31:33San fran But you know, I really like Matos. I think he's the
- 31:37kind of guy that you can, you know, once he gets solid playing
- 31:40time, you can plug him in towards the fourth fifth outfielder spot and be
- 31:44really happy with results, so I hope he gets a chance to run with
- 31:48it, and I think he's the kind of guy that will make the most
- 31:49of it. Yeah, I mean, I think both of them are worth
- 31:52picking up for any of the guys that we've talked about so far. If
- 31:56you're just kind of looking for a bat to slide in to a util spot
- 32:00or outfield spot that Ramos and Matos should both get, I would think maybe
- 32:07a month because it's more so like when Juage Hilaire and Michael Confordo come back,
- 32:12that will dictate the playing time for them, although Matos might stick over
- 32:16Ramos just given his ability to play center field. I think Ramos can fake
- 32:22it in center field, but Mottos is a much more legit centerfielder of the
- 32:25two. Yeah till you make it? Healal, Okay, Well let's get
- 32:30into some more fun news then, And I mean this isn't fun for the
- 32:36picture that was involved, but we did have Ronel Blanco getting ejected yesterday for
- 32:42sticky stuff, which I guess I'm just gonna ask you point blank, do
- 32:46you think that this is ben Why Ronel Blanco has produced so well to open
- 32:52the season, And I won't lie. I was a little worried last week
- 32:57when we were doing our Player of the Month see that Ronel Blanco would end
- 33:00up winning it for the al in terms of the Picture of the Month.
- 33:06But thankfully Jose Barrio scott over him because our pickings would have been very slim
- 33:12on the Ronel Blanco rookie card front. I looked it up that one of
- 33:15us would have had to pick some minor league cards in it, which I
- 33:17mean it would have been the worst thing. It would have been a little
- 33:21fun going back to finding some single A cards of Ronel Blanco. But yeah,
- 33:24it does look like he's going to accept his ten games suspension and be
- 33:30out for a couple starts. But are you reconsidering Ronel Blanco's profile maybe going
- 33:36forward, brew considering that maybe he was using sticky stuff for a decent amount
- 33:42of that stretch. Yeah, I mean, I have to say, it's
- 33:46like if there was one guy, like in the Majors, if you went
- 33:50through like the Rolette Roulette wheel of like pictures me, like, who do
- 33:52we think is playing so far out of the league that they got to be
- 33:55doing something special? Like Blanco would have been like the top five easily like
- 34:00may if not leading the crowd. I mean, don't get me wrong,
- 34:04like that he's pitched well, but we've got a thirty year old that's kind
- 34:07of breaking out, you know. It's it's truly like Babe fueled, left
- 34:13on base fuel, Like there's so much of this that looks like, goes,
- 34:16this isn't real. But at the same time, like why has this
- 34:22control gotten better? Why has he been able to have some of the results
- 34:24he has, Like like it's just it's too convenient, it's too easy when
- 34:30you look at the story and be like, well, not shocked on that
- 34:35one, Like again, how true it is? Whatever, I don't care.
- 34:39I was not in on Blanco to start with. I'm definitely not in
- 34:43now. And if it was true, you know that it has to stop.
- 34:46You know that he absolutely has to stop. And we do know that
- 34:50when they kind of started locking down on the sticky stuff in the past,
- 34:53like pictures, performance dropped the ones that were questionable those pictures, their performance
- 35:00dropped for I'd say it was like two three months for them to figure out
- 35:04how to pitch it out the sticky stuff. So I've got I got no
- 35:07no interest in Blanco here and come on, it's just Houston, Like,
- 35:12guys, have you not learned your lesson? Yeah? And I mean I
- 35:17do think that Blanco has made some changes that weren't all sticky stuff in terms
- 35:22of especially the integration of his change up that I think that has been what
- 35:27has led him to success this year. But especially if you own row now
- 35:31Blanco right now, you got him for free, like you can't them either,
- 35:36Yeah, exactly. So I mean you're just gonna want to stash him
- 35:39for a couple of starts here. And I mean I do think that,
- 35:43like going forward, Houston is going to start turning the corner a little bit
- 35:46and providing more wins for you if you have Houston pictures. So it does
- 35:52look like he's pretty set in that rotation going forward. I mean that's what
- 35:55a no hitter will do for you, I guess, but that I think.
- 36:00Yeah, I think he's still gonna be usable in pretty much every league
- 36:04out there. But you're gonna like want to pay close attention to when Blanco
- 36:09comes back to see if there is any degradation in his skill set without or
- 36:15with knowing that he's got just extra eyes on him from the Sticky Stuff band
- 36:22and his suspension that he's about to serve. Okay, well, let's get
- 36:25oh, go ahead. I just had to say, uh, Dallas Braid
- 36:29has to argue with you on the no hitter keeps your rotation spot. But
- 36:36I mean I think he still kept it, but he did not for long.
- 36:42That's a yeah. That's one of like a phill Humber thing. That's
- 36:44even worse throwing up game. And just like that's true. I think by
- 36:47the end of the season he was in a bullpen somewhere. Okay, well,
- 36:52let's move on to a couple of fun debuts that we got over in
- 36:55the past week since we talked. We'll open with the big one. We
- 37:00talked about it last week because we knew he was starting on Saturday. That
- 37:02is Paul Skeens from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He pitched against the Cubs, went
- 37:07four innings with seven strikeouts. I'm throwing away the earned run line there for
- 37:14him a little bit because two of those runs that Paul Skins gave up was
- 37:19a part of the really crazy six straight bases loaded walks that the that the
- 37:23Pirates gave up on Saturday. It was like a two and a half hour
- 37:29half inning partly because there was a rain delay in between, Like the Pirates
- 37:32couldn't even get out of it before the rain hit. But I don't know
- 37:37how much of the start you were able to catch. Brew I caught the
- 37:40first couple innings of it. And last week we were talking about Paul Skins,
- 37:45the top twenty pitcher. I'm still in that like camp in terms of
- 37:51maybe not top twenty, maybe like top twenty five, top thirty ish,
- 37:54just because if there was one kind of flaw that Paul skin Means showed on
- 38:00Saturday was that, like this stuff is so nasty sometimes, like it's hard
- 38:05for him to control. Obviously, he was dealing with MLB debut jitters as
- 38:10well, so that was affecting his control here and there. But I mean,
- 38:15he just throws such a great slider and the splinker gets great movement that
- 38:20sometimes it's hard for it to like stay in the zone. So I think
- 38:24he might struggle with that a little bit going forward. You're also dealing with
- 38:28just how long the Pirates will allow him to pitch. I think he threw
- 38:31eighty four pitches got through four innings on Saturday, but again that still gave
- 38:37you seven k's because even if he might struggle from time to time with that
- 38:42control. Nobody's touching that that stuff. It is so nasty and honestly,
- 38:47it reminds me a lot of like a Randy Johnson from the right side or
- 38:52something that I think Paul Skeens is going to be a formidable pitcher in our
- 38:55game for a long time. But yeah, did you catch any of the
- 38:59start and what were your takeaways from his debut? Yeah? I did not
- 39:04actually catch much of the starts, just had to stick to highlights myself,
- 39:07which was which was really unfortunate because I was looking forward to it. But
- 39:10yeah, my takeaways are a few. First of all, I don't know
- 39:15if you've looked at the top ten fastest pitches by a starter this year for
- 39:21the whole season. I'm going I want to read you the list here.
- 39:23Number one is Paul Skins. Number two is Paul Skins. Number three is
- 39:29Paul Skins. Let me break this down for you. It's Paul Skans until
- 39:35number ten is Jose Soriano, so he just the rest of that that ploy
- 39:39there, But Paul Skans one start has the top nine fastest pitches for a
- 39:45starter this year, averaging I think he has seventeen over one hundred miles an
- 39:49hour, and not that I expect him to keep this up, but you
- 39:52know, he one start with fifteen k for nine the leader right now in
- 39:58the clubhouse for kate for nine, with how Strider hurt, with having Snell
- 40:00hurt, with Cole hurt, like those guys that do it is Gett Crochet
- 40:05at twelve ker nine and then you're talking about guys, there's only about seven
- 40:09guys and eleven kper nine like he could be lapping in the field quickly from
- 40:15a strikeout perspective, and so you're right where I do think he's not quite
- 40:19sure where it's going sometimes and my leagues that definitely works majors that that could
- 40:23end up being a pitch count issue. And you also still pitch for the
- 40:28pirates, so wins could be an issue. But I'm still putting them just
- 40:31inside my top twenty pitchers just solely for the fact that those strike caluds are
- 40:37gonna be so unbelievable and that's gonna drive the massive amount of his value,
- 40:42especially in Indians leagues. If you have an Indians cap schemes is gonna be
- 40:46absolutely fabulous. And I am so sad that I don't have any shares of
- 40:51Paul Skans to cheer on and watch. But if this is what he did
- 40:53in that first start, I just look for him to get comfortable, get
- 40:57rid of the jitters. Things are gonna get fun. Yeah, I mean,
- 41:00I guess it'll be a question of how many innings he gets in this
- 41:04year. I mean back in college he was throwing tons and tons of innings,
- 41:07like one hundred and thirty innings and stuff like that. So it's not
- 41:10that he's not able to handle the workload. It's just seeing how careful the
- 41:15pirates want to be with him. Uh. Even with that concern though,
- 41:20like use them while you got them, and you know, yeah, worry
- 41:24about that when they start tapering his innings, send him, sending him down,
- 41:30putting him on PHANTOMI ol, Uh, Just I ride Paul Skeens as
- 41:35long as you can. I think he's set it and forget starter in absolutely
- 41:38every league right now, You're absolutely right. How about how about the other
- 41:44big name that yet called up. I know your boy, Robert Gasser.
- 41:46What what was your TA take on his debut? I really liked his debut
- 41:52on Friday against the Cardinals. I mean that is helped that he was facing
- 41:57the Cardinals. They make anybody look good. I was gonna say, they're
- 42:00making a lot of pictures look really good. And this is I wrote about
- 42:06it on Saturday and the Waiver Wire piece that I love Robert Gasser. We've
- 42:10talked about him a few times here on this pod, because even with Jacob
- 42:15miss Rowski in Milwaukee, I think Gasser's probably the better pitching prospect just because
- 42:22mister Rowski doesn't know where the ball is going. Ever, that he's kind
- 42:29of a classic flamethrower with control issues, and Robert Gasser is a pitcher man
- 42:35like he he throws out of a really nice low lefty slot. It was
- 42:42a good fastball, a good sweeper or slider. I think he throws both,
- 42:46but I think they kind of get interchanged a little bit. I think
- 42:51that Gasser there was a little question in terms of whether or not he would
- 42:54stick into the rotation going forward, but he pitched again today, looked pretty
- 43:00good against the Pirates. Gave up only one run over five innings, only
- 43:04had two k's, so the strikeouts will be certainly lower with Gasser. But
- 43:07this is a guy who seems to just be a good solid pitcher, like
- 43:15he won one hundred and thirty five innings in Triple A last year and this
- 43:20year he should get full run as they kind of really let him go as
- 43:24a twenty five year old. I think that Gasser with these two starts,
- 43:30has pitched well enough to show Milwaukee that, hey, like you can keep
- 43:34me in the rotation and trust me. And maybe they do move to like
- 43:37a six man rotation or something there, but I think they're going to want
- 43:39to use Robert Gasser as much as they can. I think you call it
- 43:45the important piece. Heiers. He's twenty five, Like he's he's not at
- 43:47the point that you need to try to keep him in the minors and protect
- 43:51him and he's now and take advantage of it. Like I think that's that's
- 43:57what it looks like for Gassers. So maybe we'll try to to give him
- 44:00a little bit more rest here and there. But he's definitely one of the
- 44:04guys that I'm if he's available, I'm grabbing, and I'm I'm probably putting
- 44:08on my bench and trying not to pitch him unless the matchup is just too
- 44:14too good to pass up. But I think he's one of those ones you
- 44:19want to kind of see because you know the outcome. Like, you're not
- 44:22shocked if he ends up being a really good pitcher, right, You're not
- 44:23shocked by it. You're also not shocked if you're in like a month,
- 44:27you're you're dropping them. Like it can go either way, but the talent
- 44:30is good enough that you want to find You don't want to wait and find
- 44:32out while somebody else picks them up. Yeah, And I mean even if
- 44:37the strikeouts haven't been there so far, that they could be there in the
- 44:40future. I mean, this is a guy who ran twelve kprinhein last year
- 44:45and so like some of that is obviously pitching its Triple A pitchers. The
- 44:51next start blinds up against the Marlins, so that's going to be pretty brilliant.
- 44:54I think I'm trying to game this out. The rumors play the White
- 45:00Sox the weekend, like not the weekend right after the Marlins, but the
- 45:05weekend after that, and he might line up for one of those. That
- 45:08would be okay. I'll take back my statement that I'll throw on the bench
- 45:13unless you have good, good teams against the Marlins, and the White Sox
- 45:16might be two of the best and after starting against the Cardinals' that's a pretty
- 45:20nice little sampirate pushy run there. Yeah, yeah, I mean that,
- 45:24And like I'm looking even forward, he could also get Tigers, Reds,
- 45:30and Angels, like he's definitely if he sticks the Brewers schedule this year.
- 45:35Yeah, it's yeah that there's a lot of really soft teams on the Brewers
- 45:39schedule coming up. They do have one road series against the Phillies the first
- 45:46week of June. But yeah, writing down a note to himself, pick
- 45:52up all Brewers pictures, that is a soft, soft schedule. But okay,
- 45:59that's good. To wrap us up for our opening here on news notes
- 46:02and injuries, we are going to take a short break and we'll be back
- 46:07to discuss highly owned bats that we might be considering cutting in our fantasy leagues.
- 46:13Stick around, all right, Welcome back, everybody. We are going
- 46:32to get into a discussion of highly owned bats out there that we might be
- 46:38considering moving on from. These are all going to be guys that we spent
- 46:43pretty decent draft capalon either in terms of high draft picks. I think most
- 46:47of these guys would have been in the top ten rounds of any kind of
- 46:51standard twelve team fantasy league out there, or these guys were all demanding probably
- 46:59ten plus bucks at your auction tables as well. So these are players that
- 47:04we certainly had to spend some sort of draft capital that made it hurt when
- 47:09we picked them a couple of months ago. But we're now a quarter of
- 47:15the way into the season, as teams have played roughly forty two ish games
- 47:19apiece, and it's really time to start a reevaluating some of these players,
- 47:23as we got into it early with Danzy Swanson and Cabrian Hayes of players who
- 47:30would fall into this bucket, especially like we explained with Dansby Swanson, like
- 47:35the projections have already started to pick up on some of the skills degradation,
- 47:38and that's probably gonna start happening here with some of these players as well.
- 47:43As you know, they've produced a forty game set of less than stellar production
- 47:49for us out there, so it's time to consider moving on from some of
- 47:52these players. We're not going to exactly help you with like how to fix
- 47:57it and who to pick up, but that's why you can out my waiver
- 48:00wire piece on Saturday to help you out. But these are certainly some I
- 48:04mean some of these players I would be cutting them. For those guys I'm
- 48:08suggesting on those waiver wires, but more of maybe like a philosophical question,
- 48:14strategy question for you, brew like what type of milestone or point in the
- 48:21season are you looking at hitters to consider dropping them or really reevaluating their profiles
- 48:28overall? Yeah, I think I don't really want to give any credence for
- 48:32the first month, and really I feel like you can draw true conclusions after
- 48:37two months, is the kind of way I look at it. The problem
- 48:43being it's probably in between there is when the rest of the market's moving,
- 48:46So you've got to be a little predictive at that point in time. That
- 48:51said, like, I think anybody that you had kind of questions on going
- 48:54to the season, has you know, didn't do great last year, but
- 48:59begs pointing to something like close to thirty days, you gotta cut paid,
- 49:02you gotta start looking elsewhere. Guys that have much more of a track record
- 49:07something like that. I'm gonna give them a little bit more time just to
- 49:09see because everybody has an off month, like you don't want it, you
- 49:13know, you have a off month in the middle of the season after a
- 49:15hot start and you haven't good in the year, nobody even has that conversation,
- 49:17so you want to be careful that you don't run to that. But
- 49:21it's it's kind of a slight scale, like first routers, give them their
- 49:23time. You know, a guy in the tenth fifteenth, you got to
- 49:27be willing to move off. So I'm usually looking between that one to two
- 49:30month time frame, give them, you know, thirty to forty games and
- 49:35kind of where a lot of their ratios start to stabilize and the noise comes
- 49:38out. That's that's where I'm looking. Well, that's perfect because that's exactly
- 49:42where we are. So that's where we're at. It's like we've planned it.
- 49:45Yeah, and so let's start with a few players where I think you
- 49:52can strongly consider cutting them in terms of just the production overall and what they've
- 49:58provided for you. That like, I understand why you might be entertaining cutting
- 50:02some of these players, but certainly these are guys that we're still holding onto,
- 50:08and a couple of them are first rounders. I will raw them off
- 50:10for you and then you can give me thoughts on each player we have.
- 50:15Julio Rodriguez Corbyn, Carroll, Boba Schett, and Paul Goldschmidt as players where
- 50:22certainly have stumbled out the gate, all four of them, but we are
- 50:27still going to be holding them going forward. Give a little bit of insight
- 50:30onto why you might be holding these players still. Yeah, I think I'll
- 50:34break them into kind of to two groups here, and I think there's the
- 50:37the upside guys like the and I'm gonna call it, it's Julio and Corbin,
- 50:43right, Julio Rodriguez and Corbyn Carroll, They're the upside there. They
- 50:45are superstars like they they can win your league. I don't care how terrible
- 50:51they're playing. You are not cutting them that you have to hold onto them
- 50:54because you because you need to see them figure figure it out. Of the
- 50:59two of them, I'm really not concerned with Julio, like his production's been
- 51:02down, but underneath the covers, things look really no different than what they
- 51:07were to start last year. He looks pretty much the same guy, and
- 51:10even in just the last few games he seemed to kind of pick things up.
- 51:14So I think people were kind of souring because they were expecting so much
- 51:16from him that when he was you know, he only has two homeers stufar,
- 51:20but he's stole in nine bases. You know, he's His underlying metrics
- 51:23look pretty much the same as they have in the past. The big difference
- 51:28is a home run for fly per fly ball rate is five percent. His
- 51:31career rate, I guess excluding this year is like twenty percent. It's like
- 51:36four times so you know, I'm not an expert here, but four times
- 51:39two his numbers of home runs. We'd be talking about a guy that has
- 51:44eight homers, nine steals, hitting two sixty. The county stats are a
- 51:47little low, but like that's just fine. Like so the Julio I'm not
- 51:52too concerned with Orben I'm a little bit more. He's banged up to a
- 51:55degree, so I'm a little concerned with him. But again, you can't
- 52:00cut the guy that has, you know, top of the line sprint speed,
- 52:05amazing control with the bat. He has very good bat speed we can
- 52:08now see, and he just has them been barreling things up. So but
- 52:13it is also we were talking about it being an injury flag that that is
- 52:19really helpful. I think with Corbyn Carroll is that like if his bat speed
- 52:22still prey solid. I think there's been a lot of murmurers out there about
- 52:25his shoulder really bothering him in that creating the slow start. But if the
- 52:30bat speed's still there, that does help us show that Hey, maybe it's
- 52:32just a little bit of a tweaking and approach. Yeah, so I said,
- 52:37both those guys to me, you break them out and say you're starting
- 52:40them even you know, I don't even mention these guys. I've had guys
- 52:44on my top one hundred and being like, why are you being so nice
- 52:45to Corbyn Carroll Like, it's guys, rest of the season, He's gonna
- 52:49be okay. On the other side of it, Boba Shet Paul gold Schmidt,
- 52:53I am more concerned with, like the production. You can't cut these
- 52:58guys. I still can't think you can cut these guys. So there's just
- 53:00too much potential there, even from just a peer accounting stats perspective, but
- 53:06things just look bleak. It is not ideal. But those are the kind
- 53:13of guys I'm looking more at. I'd consider benching them, depending what you
- 53:16have to replace. I'm probably a little lower on Bushett than I am on
- 53:22Goldman, but that's just because Bashet's profile in the past has been average and
- 53:29a little speed plus power, and I don't think he's even doing that,
- 53:34and it doesn't look like there's a really clear turnaround. But again, you
- 53:37you can't at this point Boba sheet because he's still a really, really talented
- 53:43ball player, regardless of what the metrics say. The same for Goldman.
- 53:45Then we were talking about MVP just like two years ago, right, he
- 53:49still is that same guy. He's slowing down things like that. But don't
- 53:53don't mistake an all star MVP level player playing average as you need to cut
- 54:00him because he's blowed your expectations when you caught him. You might be trying
- 54:04to pick up the guy that is his upside is the average player. Yeah,
- 54:09And I mean I think with gold Schmidt, especially given how many Cardinals
- 54:15games you and I watch, I don't know what your take is, but
- 54:19like when I'm watching Goldschman at the plate, he just looks caught in between
- 54:22in terms of like maybe like with the Cardinals coaching staff is caught telling him
- 54:27and what he did in drive line, and like you can tell he's thinking
- 54:30too much at the plate. You saw it a little bit actually this past
- 54:34weekend where he just found his groove a little bit more that I do think
- 54:38that gold Schmidt will turn it around. Bobachett, I'm I agree with you
- 54:44there. That part of it too is like, uh, I don't have
- 54:46any Bobachett shares, because like I was not really pegging him for more than
- 54:52like twenty homers, like ten stone bases and like a two eighty two ninety
- 54:58average, and that's not where he was being drafted. So I think this
- 55:02is just maybe like a little bit of a wake up or if you did
- 55:05have Boba Schett, like, hey, I'm sorry, but he's not necessarily
- 55:08like a borderline first rounder the way he was a couple of years ago.
- 55:12He has settled into I think more of an accumulator at the shortstop middle end
- 55:17field. For you, Corporin and Carroll we just talked about in terms of
- 55:21I think that like it's just been a little bit of an odd start that
- 55:24he played an extra month last year, and I think he's been starting to
- 55:29turn it around as well too. Julio is actually a player where in terms
- 55:34of like a dynasty situation keeper situation, this start maybe has me a little
- 55:40bit concerned in terms of what his ceiling could be, just because of and
- 55:46I think a lot of it isn't actually julio skills problem. I think,
- 55:52as you said, like the skills are are there and they're still showing up.
- 55:55It's actually more of a T Mobile Park problem. It is the worst
- 56:00parked hidden on a three year rolling average by by far. Like it is
- 56:06the darkest shade of blue. It's really like the biggest picture park that we
- 56:09have in our league right now. On top of it, it's also number
- 56:15one for strikeouts. And I learned this from Rates and Barrels. You know,
- 56:19Sarrus was saying that lots of players hate hitting there because the batter's size
- 56:23is actually like a skew kind of It looks askew in center field because of
- 56:28like the way that the park is designed in the seats around it, like
- 56:31the seats around it are angled, even though like the batter's eye is flat.
- 56:37It just creates like a really weird visual for players. And I think
- 56:42that's why it is so high for strikeouts, is because everyone's struggling with that
- 56:45batter's eye in T Mobile Park. And I just don't like that for what
- 56:51that pretends for Julio's production going forward, not only for his own in terms
- 56:57of strikeouts, but like that lineup around him is always continually brutal. But
- 57:01I think it's because a combination of like Jerry to Poto, I don't know
- 57:07if he's got the greatest approach to like what he's looking for in a hitter,
- 57:10and then on top of it, he's cycling through hitters so often none
- 57:15of them can adjust to that batter side in Seattle, And so because of
- 57:20that, like I think it's just a little bit of like a hey,
- 57:22you know what, if I do get some sort of Godfather offer for Julio,
- 57:27I might consider moving on it, because I don't know if his ceiling
- 57:30is gonna quite be as high as like what I would consider a Kunya or
- 57:37Muki or Fernano tatisis to be, even though the talent is certainly there.
- 57:42Yeah, I think the one other thing with Julio is he hits the top
- 57:44of the lineup. He's either too or leading off, and so when you
- 57:46talk about accumulating like stats, like, yeah, he need them more on
- 57:52the run side, but from the RBI side, he's just not gonna get
- 57:54what you need there, Like he's the guy that you want hitting three or
- 57:58four, and that's just deal, and that's not where he's at. So
- 58:01there's a few things there. I think you make a good point that he's
- 58:04one of those that he's gonna at some point he's gonna get hot, like
- 58:07Huo is gonna be, you know, player of the Week or something like
- 58:09that, maybe in the player of the month, because he's gonna go crazy.
- 58:13That's the time to look at the Dynasty League. I think he is
- 58:15a really interesting guy to try to flip, but it's gonna be so hard
- 58:19to do so, like I recognize it's so hard to do it because the
- 58:23second guess that you can do when he does it again the next month and
- 58:28then he ends up, you know, going downhill like it's it's hard.
- 58:30It's definitely hard, but you have to you have to make big moves to
- 58:35win the game. Yeah, exactly. Okay, Well, then let's get
- 58:38into a four pack of players who I think some of them we're cutting and
- 58:45some of them maybe not that. Like I think we'll probably have a few,
- 58:50maybe more disagreements here, but I will open that we have a four
- 58:55pack of Nolan Jones, Xander Bogart's, Carlos Korea, and Jake Berger in
- 59:00this pool. I will. Actually I'm gonna start with Xander because if there's
- 59:06anybody in this group that I'm cutting, it's actually him. We came into
- 59:12the season, he was my fade on the padres when we did our season
- 59:16previews that like you could just see it in terms of his overall profile coming
- 59:22over from Boston that the the power was starting to degrade, the just overall
- 59:30kind of like walkability was starting to come a little like it was becoming shakier,
- 59:36and just the approach overall of Xander Bogart's had been more of an accumulator,
- 59:42as you know twenty nineteen when he popped thirty three bombs. Has been
- 59:46long in the rear view mirror for Xander Bogart's and I think it's really starting
- 59:51to come into fruition this year. I think part of it too, is
- 59:53he's learning a new position kind of on the fly, being second base after
- 59:58being used to being a shortstop. I don't that's helping his mental approach,
- 1:00:01but yeah, Xander Bogart is somebody who if I'm in a shaller league,
- 1:00:07like a ten team league, I think you can move on from Xander Bogarts
- 1:00:09because even where the projections are going to take you back to in terms of
- 1:00:15like a two mid two sixties average mid teens homers with your requisite runs an
- 1:00:22RBIs in the Padres lineup. In a ten team league, you've probably have
- 1:00:29been able to find that again somewhere else or be able to like find something
- 1:00:32akin to it. So, twelve teamers, I'm certainly putting Xander Bogarts on
- 1:00:37notice if you can somehow trade him. I don't. I can't believe anybody
- 1:00:42would be buying low on him. But maybe only a couple more weeks though,
- 1:00:47like in a twelve team or before again, like if there is a
- 1:00:51hotter name out there, or maybe you're chasing stolen bases or just need to
- 1:00:58find some other way to shake up your roster, I think Xander Bogarts can
- 1:01:00be amongst those cuts. Yeah, I think you know. I can't really
- 1:01:06disagree with most of what you have you said there. That's like, that's
- 1:01:08where I sit is in a twelve teamer generally with a deep line of middle
- 1:01:14endfields like that, I think Xander is now your middle endfielder. Like I
- 1:01:16think that's where you're sitting. But you're sitting there going is he going to
- 1:01:21be worth it? But it's gonna be hard to find for a middle endfielder,
- 1:01:25a deeper like twelve team or fourteen teamer, something that's much better than
- 1:01:30Xander on the waiver wired depending on how deep your your league is. So
- 1:01:36I'm kind of watching in those. But you're a ten teamer, I think
- 1:01:38you move on. I think you absolutely can move on from Xander at this
- 1:01:42point. I want to play the flip side though, with uh Carlos Korea.
- 1:01:47And I know that you know, Correa has been kind of banged up
- 1:01:52here and there, but I'm actually intrigued by Carlos Korea. It this hurts
- 1:01:58me to say, because he is he on this podcast specifically, we have
- 1:02:04expo expoused the concerns with Carlos Korea and how we stay away from it.
- 1:02:08And as I was looking at him a little deeper, I was I was
- 1:02:13slightly intrigued. Like as you start to look at his profile and how he's
- 1:02:17hitting the ball, he looks a lot more like the twenty twenty two version
- 1:02:22of Carlos Korea than the twenty twenty three version. The strikeouts are down,
- 1:02:28the walks are up, you know, the hard hit rate is kind of
- 1:02:31right where you want to be he's hitting in the sweet spot. His ex
- 1:02:37batting average is three or one. Like he he's actually got unlucky at this
- 1:02:42point in time, and he's had some pretty pretty okay numbers. It's just
- 1:02:47that the power he hasn't had the power there. And also in that Twins
- 1:02:52lineup, they've been not scoring the most runs, so his rum production has
- 1:02:55been down. But you know, I think with how down people were on
- 1:03:02Korea kind of entering the season, I think it's actually intriguing that he's one
- 1:03:07that might have more left in the tank. So I'm hesitantly holding Correa,
- 1:03:14even though I might have not had him to start with going into the season.
- 1:03:19So I don't know how I can hold the guy that I never owned.
- 1:03:22But still I think that there's some positive regression coming for Carlo's Korea.
- 1:03:25Yeah, I mean, I think the bat is still there. I think
- 1:03:30my biggest issue with Carlo's Korea is he's an absolute zero in the storm based
- 1:03:34department up the middle, and that is a pretty significant spot where you're trying
- 1:03:40to get some storm bases that taking a zero. This is why we also
- 1:03:45don't really like Luisa Rise, is that it's just a position where you need
- 1:03:51to be providing some speed because if you're not, you're behind your opponents.
- 1:03:54So I mean if you are, you know, way up in speed and
- 1:04:00or you know have Ellie or Capairo or even like a Kuoney or something just
- 1:04:05to be able to make sure that you have enough speed, then yeah,
- 1:04:10I think Carl's career could fit in that situation, but it does take a
- 1:04:15lot of good roster management, like taking a Luisa Rise or Joey Gallo in
- 1:04:18his prime that like you've got to prepare around it to be able to counteract
- 1:04:24that lack of speed, especially in a rotisary league. That like that's going
- 1:04:30to be I think Carl's career's fatal flaw going forward is that because like,
- 1:04:33yeah, prime Carl's career when he was not stealing bases, you know,
- 1:04:38back in twenty seventeen, but like you know, hitting over three hundred and
- 1:04:43hitting mid teens or mid twenties homers with one hundred runs rbi, like that
- 1:04:48works because then you can be a zero in stolen bases because you're so productive
- 1:04:55from the pere bat side. But if he's kind of trending wards where he's
- 1:05:00at actually right now, that's you know just below twenty homers something like seventy
- 1:05:06RBIs seventy d runs in a two seventy average. That doesn't cut it up
- 1:05:13the middle with no speed. Yeah, he's he's he's intriguing, but you're
- 1:05:18at the speed really does her at the position. So all right, let's
- 1:05:24talk about Nolan Jones. I think I think we can bucket him and Burger
- 1:05:28together because we've both been banged up, and I think the situations are kind
- 1:05:32of similar in terms of, like the teams around them are awful, which
- 1:05:36is really limiting a lot of the counting stats that we needed out of them
- 1:05:42to be able to be useful players. But I can admit in the places
- 1:05:45where I have Jake Berger and Nolan Jones, I haven't cut either of them
- 1:05:49yet, but they are on watch. Like Jake Berger just returned from a
- 1:05:53strange oblique, I'm giving him a little bit time to see if you can
- 1:05:58start finding a little bit of a groove. He has not. He's looked
- 1:06:00really awful. Nolan Jones is probably still a couple of weeks away from returning
- 1:06:03from the IL, but again, same thing. I want to see if
- 1:06:06that back is healed up. What are you thinking on both Jones and Burger
- 1:06:13here. Yeah, if I if I had to pick one, I would
- 1:06:15I would be sticking with Burger is who I'd be saying, Okay, I'm
- 1:06:18surprised by that. Yeah, and I just on the surface, I get
- 1:06:25where you're surprised. But I spent a little time looking at Nolan Jones and
- 1:06:30his underlying metrics. I'm sitting here going, why are we surprised that he's
- 1:06:34not playing well? Like the guy ran a four hundred babit last year.
- 1:06:40He struck out basically a third of the time, and you know, he
- 1:06:44put the ball on the ground like in the mid forty percent of the time.
- 1:06:48Like it wasn't a recipe for success, Like it doesn't work. I
- 1:06:53know he's fast, I know he can move, but like if you're getting
- 1:06:56lucky to get on base, you're striking out a lot, Like it's definitely
- 1:07:02there's some questions there. I know we were hoping for growth, but I
- 1:07:06think where he was he was getting drafted because I mean he hit that twenty
- 1:07:10twenty plateau with only one hundred and six games. I think we were like
- 1:07:14projecting all these great things and not looking and saying like man like he he
- 1:07:17has got to get those strikeouts down, and he's he was incredibly lucky to
- 1:07:23to deliver that. So I think right now, I'm Jones is a guy
- 1:07:27that I am shopping hard. I am shopping him hard of you know,
- 1:07:30he's gonna be back soon, He's gonna be healthy. He's a twenty twenty
- 1:07:33guy. Last year he was pacing for thirty thirty. I you know,
- 1:07:36I just got to move on because I need somebody now, Like i'd be
- 1:07:39shopping him really hard. And so I'm I'm probably holding Burger over Jones.
- 1:07:44I'm probably not cutting either of them until they're back healthy and we can see
- 1:07:47what happens. But I'm, like I said, I feel it feels weird
- 1:07:51to say that, but I'm a little bit more interested in Burger just because
- 1:07:57he looks like he who he was last year was who he at is.
- 1:08:00I don't know the Jones is who he was last year. Yeah, No,
- 1:08:03I think that's fair. Yeah, I think I'm the other way around.
- 1:08:05I would like if I had to make you know, I had a
- 1:08:11team and only one spot left, and I'm debating between Jones and Burger,
- 1:08:14I would keep Jones just because the whole Colorado of it all that like,
- 1:08:19I always fall in love with that, and if you're able to at least
- 1:08:23play him for those games, that's that's pretty nice. Yeah, that's fair.
- 1:08:29Okay, Well, let's get into some guys that I think we've got
- 1:08:32more so in our drop bucket, and we'll open it up with Actually,
- 1:08:39just because you put him on the list, I don't know if I'm dropping
- 1:08:42him quite yet. I would have had him more in the borderline that I'm
- 1:08:45still giving him a couple more weeks, but I want to hear why you
- 1:08:48are out there dropping Yankee second basement Labor Torres. Oh well, Labor Torres,
- 1:08:56let me let me go here. Yes, I've never been a fan
- 1:09:00of of of Glaber Torres. You know, most of the power that we've
- 1:09:05seen with Glaber has been really connected to luck over the years. He's when
- 1:09:11he kind of spikes his home run for fly ball right, he's a guy
- 1:09:15traditionally he's a five or six percent home run for fly ball Right. The
- 1:09:17two seasons that he had big home run, it doubled that. But that's
- 1:09:21just not who he's been historically. And he's old camping yards. Yes,
- 1:09:28very true, which was which was very helpful for him. He also is
- 1:09:31one of those guys that you know he has a little speed but always teases
- 1:09:40you with it doesn't deliver as much as you want. So I look at
- 1:09:45Glabar, is I say drop him? Is shop him like, let's be
- 1:09:48fair, like you have to look at the market. I would be shopping
- 1:09:51him hard. I really just don't think that there's much to like in this
- 1:09:56profile. The strikeouts that jumps significantly since last year, they're back to kind
- 1:09:59of where they were before. But again, the ball's not leaving the yard
- 1:10:01like it kind of had before, which I think is actually who he is.
- 1:10:05And so if you look at that, look at his twenty twenty one
- 1:10:09season, that's what he's profiling with right now. And the twenty twenty one
- 1:10:13season, one hundred and twenty seven games, he had nine homers, fourteen
- 1:10:15steals in a combined one hundred and one runs in RBIs that's who I think
- 1:10:20glay Bar actually is. Not the guy we've seen the last few years that
- 1:10:26no had some luck and again last year he cut the strikeouts. I don't
- 1:10:30know how he did that what he did, but I just doesn't seem like
- 1:10:33that's sticking it seems like his his career trajectory is this low twenty strikeout guy,
- 1:10:38not the mid teens. So I'm I'm calling it a cut, but
- 1:10:44it's more of a I think there's a lot of soluble value here. You
- 1:10:46can still get some other glay Bar. I would be pushing him hard on
- 1:10:48the trade market getting something out because somebody's gonna believe him. Somebody's gonna be
- 1:10:53like, oh, he's just been, you know, scuffling a little bit.
- 1:10:55He'll figure it out. I just don't think there's a lot to like
- 1:10:58here in that profile for Glabar, and I really think he just had a
- 1:11:01good two year run with a little bit of luck. Yeah. I mean,
- 1:11:06I think why I'm still holding him is I'm still buying into the contract
- 1:11:12your narrative here as he is going to be a free agent in the offseason.
- 1:11:15Part of it, too, is he's just historically like a really poor
- 1:11:19April player. He's got a career ninety two WRC plus in March and April.
- 1:11:26He does strike me as one of those players a little bit like Jose
- 1:11:29of Bray you two, where I don't know if it's the cold weather or
- 1:11:31just the need for everyday reps to be able to get back into the game,
- 1:11:36but has just always struck me as a slow starter in his career.
- 1:11:42The other reason I'm still holding onto Glabor is that even with the poor performance
- 1:11:47so far, he's on pace still for like seventy five ish runs in RBI,
- 1:11:53like you know, that like a piece, and because that Yankees lineup
- 1:11:57is so formidable, like he's gonna keep playing and giving you those numbers.
- 1:12:02So even if, like you know, the average might be significantly lower than
- 1:12:06it was in previous years, like you still might end up with a guy
- 1:12:12who is mid teens homers and stolen bases and giving you enough run in RBI
- 1:12:17production where certainly wasn't worth what you were drafting him for. But yeah,
- 1:12:23I've actually got a decent number of shares of Labor because, like I just
- 1:12:29liked where he was going in the second base kind of value during draft season.
- 1:12:32And I can tell you part of it too, is like the options
- 1:12:36for picking up other players is really poor on a lot of those leagues,
- 1:12:42you know. It's like you're debating about like Jorge Matteo and on our one
- 1:12:48of our big leagues where our big home league where I have him as my
- 1:12:53second basement, Like, yeah, maybe Joey your teas, so like that's
- 1:12:56part of it, is like you're kind of stuck with him. But yeah,
- 1:12:59if somebody did come to me with an offer for labor torres in any
- 1:13:02of those leagues, I would certainly be biting at that bait. Yeah,
- 1:13:08And the thing I look at with him is he was he has seen more
- 1:13:13fastballs this year than he did last year, and he's traditionally struggled with the
- 1:13:16fastball, and like last year, last two years, he kind of seemed
- 1:13:19to figure it out a little bit, like he was a little bit positive
- 1:13:24run value. Last year he was kind of even like it seems like they're
- 1:13:27pounding them harder and harder with the fastball and he just can't handle that a
- 1:13:30high, high heat. He just can't handle it. And you look at
- 1:13:33the you know, I love the futures a mont who compared to similar batting
- 1:13:38profiles, And I read this list and there's not a single guy on this
- 1:13:43and I'm like, yeah, reliable, exciting. I want Matt Chapman,
- 1:13:47Donnovan, Solano, Ody Bellinger, Cedric Bullens, Billy McKinney, Like nobody
- 1:13:54there. This was like, yeah, reliable. Those are all like streaky
- 1:13:58is all get out hitters that like they hell a good season, then they
- 1:14:01are a disaster. And I just feel like that's where labor's going. Maybe
- 1:14:04I'm just negative, but somebody else take them. Yeah, Okay, well
- 1:14:12let's get into I mean, all five of these next guys that we're gonna
- 1:14:15discuss. I mean, I would certainly be looking to drop them that,
- 1:14:19Like, I don't even know if you can really shop these guys that they're
- 1:14:24pretty droppable at this point. I think we'll open with the one that probably
- 1:14:30costs you the most at the draft table this past spring, and that is
- 1:14:34George Springer from the Toronto Blue Jays. And things are brutal right now.
- 1:14:41If after one hundred and sixty one plaited appearances, Springer is slashing two hundred
- 1:14:45two seventy three two ninety, that's a sixty six WRC plus he's only given
- 1:14:50you three homers. The six stolen bases are nice, but certainly he's also
- 1:14:57only got six ribs, and so he's got as many RBIs as he does
- 1:15:01stolen bases. For you. Everything I said there is certainly a waiver wire
- 1:15:09sort of bat and in fact, like, if anything, because he plays
- 1:15:13every day, that average is just grinding your rotisserie batting average. That maybe
- 1:15:18the stole and bases are nice, but the nice thing about getting somebody in
- 1:15:24the mold of like a Raji Davis back in the day was that they weren't
- 1:15:28playing full time to give you those stolen bases. So if the batting average
- 1:15:31was poor, didn't hurt you that badly. But the fact that Springer is
- 1:15:35still marching out there every day hitting two hundred for you, that really hurts.
- 1:15:41And on top of it, we're just seeing, like I think him
- 1:15:45just get old in front of our eyes. The hard hit percentages down,
- 1:15:47the barrel percentages down, maxyv is down. He's thirty four years old.
- 1:15:54I mean, I don't have any George Springer shares because I was worried about
- 1:15:58this based a little bit on his profile from last year that you could kind
- 1:16:02of see where the hard hit rates were already dropping for Springer as he entered
- 1:16:09his mid thirties. But what about you, Brew, Are you dropping Springer
- 1:16:13where you got him? And or are you any signs of hope here?
- 1:16:18Yeah? Well, I'm not proud to say I recently traded for him in
- 1:16:20one of our leagues. But really, you know, as I look at
- 1:16:25Springer, I'm not dropping Spring yet. I think that I will say that
- 1:16:28of all the guys we're talking about, I'm not dropping Springer yet. Because
- 1:16:31you're right, I think we are starting to see the decline. I just
- 1:16:35as I look at the metrics underneath I look at what he's doing, I
- 1:16:39don't think the decline's as steep as what we're seeing. I think he's more
- 1:16:44like you just look at his his average and his power. Last years,
- 1:16:47they've like just kind of ticked down year over year, and I think we're
- 1:16:51seeing another tick down year. But he's had some pretty rough luck with that.
- 1:16:57And so if that luck turns around and he ends up being a two
- 1:17:00fifty hitter that hits fifteen homers and steals twenty bases, like, I'm not
- 1:17:02shocked at all if that's who he is the rest of the season. So
- 1:17:08I think there's still enough in there. But like, is not the George
- 1:17:11Springer from two three years ago who we were hoping went twenty five fifteen and
- 1:17:15hit two seventy, Like we just filled the stat sheet. The other problem
- 1:17:18is he's playing for the Blue Jays who just looked terrible. Oh yeah,
- 1:17:21they've been awful, And so I think that that also is a take against
- 1:17:26him. But like I said, I think there's enough under there that I'm
- 1:17:29still interested in him. I'm still willing to have him, but it's really
- 1:17:33hard to play him right now. And it comes down to not the other
- 1:17:38not the not the home runs, not the steals. It's the counting stats,
- 1:17:41which right now really really bother me with Springer is he's just not getting
- 1:17:45a chance to round out the sheet, and it's because he's hitting lead off
- 1:17:50for a team that's not playing well. So he's not you know, over
- 1:17:55the last like three weeks, I think he's knocked in two runs and I
- 1:18:00was either of those, and one of those was a homer, So like
- 1:18:05that's not boating well, So I'm concerned, but I still think we're on
- 1:18:11the slow decline where he's still a very valuable bat. But may or of
- 1:18:15them were three or four outfielder. So if you're in a shallotteen team,
- 1:18:18like, yeah, absolutely, you know, cut bait with him three outfield
- 1:18:21leagues. I think you can cupbait as well. But I'm I'm willing to
- 1:18:25give Springer a little bit a little bit more here because I think there's some
- 1:18:28some good positive regression on him. But the Blue Jay scare me. Yeah,
- 1:18:33I mean I think in twelve team areis if you've got a decent option
- 1:18:38on the wire, I mean I'd be moving that direction. Fifteen. I
- 1:18:43might still be giving him a little more leash, but he's certainly on watch.
- 1:18:47Let me see if I can pull up who like I would prefer over
- 1:18:53him that would be available, just because it takes a little while to get
- 1:19:00through all this information on CBS, but yeah, some available guys would be
- 1:19:05I think I would move on to like Brandon marsh over him, Ryan O'Hearn
- 1:19:13if he's still out there. I mean Ryan O'Hearn, I would be taking
- 1:19:16over George Springer right now. You've also got you know, Lars Newpar's been
- 1:19:21having like really good bad at ball metrics. I'm wondering when that pulls around,
- 1:19:28even like a giant de Luca, you know, I think you know
- 1:19:30there's gonna be options, I think, and especially if you're looking maybe of
- 1:19:33moving down the list on trades too, like you might be able to so
- 1:19:41find somebody that you could I mean maybe even like moving him for like a
- 1:19:45Nolan Jones and trying to see if you can cash in on Jones coming back
- 1:19:48in Colorado. But yeah, I'm not not too bullish on Springer going forward.
- 1:19:56It's fair that's what we're talking about. Yeah, okay, so next
- 1:19:59one one we have is first baseman Spencer Torkalsen from the Tigers, who is
- 1:20:04woof Yeah. This is some of these lines that we've been looking at as
- 1:20:10we've been working on. This has been crazy and they're just rough. He's
- 1:20:14hitting two twenty two eighty six three forty This is six twenty six ops with
- 1:20:18two homers on the season. That really hurts considering he's coming off of a
- 1:20:25thirty one homer season. He's only twenty four. I think lots of people
- 1:20:28were looking for that growth out of Torkalsen, but he's really struggled with barrels.
- 1:20:32He's really struggled with putting the bat on the ball. I've even there's
- 1:20:40been, you know, rumblings in Detroit that he's been moving down the order
- 1:20:45a little bit and you've been able to see like a J. Hinch has
- 1:20:49talked about like maybe him riding the pine in the future that uh, this
- 1:20:54isn't looking great for Spencer Trokosen because like he's maybe a couple more weeks away
- 1:20:59of playing like this from being back in Triple A. I think because they
- 1:21:02have the options on him. He's young enough where his career is not lost,
- 1:21:06but he looks lost at the plate. And so I'm I'm certainly like,
- 1:21:12yeah, in ten teams, twelve teams, I think it's certainly worth
- 1:21:17moving on from Spencer Torklesen, maybe cutting him especially. Maybe the one variable
- 1:21:25is that we talked about with Reez Hoskins a little bit, is that first
- 1:21:28base in corner Enfield is pretty shallow. But yeah, if you've got an
- 1:21:31option, I just don't see anything right now in terms of like what we've
- 1:21:38seen over the years from Parkleson, in terms of like his inability to hit
- 1:21:43the ball kind of for contact consistently just hasn't ever materialized. So I'm not
- 1:21:49really in on Turkleson going forward. What about you? Yeah, Torkleson is
- 1:21:55really a tough one, like as far like long term, like redraft right
- 1:21:59now out easy cut the guy. He looks absolutely atrocious at the plate.
- 1:22:04And but what what throws me off a little bit Torkleson's he tried to dig
- 1:22:09underneath and a lot of times with something like that, you see a significant
- 1:22:12change, or you saw a lot of luck or something like that. Like
- 1:22:15there's not a really clear driver here. He just appears to be lost.
- 1:22:20He's trying to pull the ball more, which you know hitters tend to and
- 1:22:24they're struggling. They tend to pull the ball more, roll it over more
- 1:22:27to third base or first I guess, righty, righty, lefty here.
- 1:22:32But you know that I'm struggling with this because I'm not seeing something like it's
- 1:22:36not like he's chasing the ball all the time. It's not like, you
- 1:22:40know, he's really changed the approach. He just isn't hitting the fastball well.
- 1:22:46And I was going doing the same thing we did with Labor. I
- 1:22:51was looking at the guys that they compare him against over at Savant and similar
- 1:22:56batters to Toorkleson, Royce Lewis, Pete Alonzo, Austin Riley, like really
- 1:23:02good hitters. And so I'm struggling as I look at him, like I'm
- 1:23:05not sure, but he it literally looks like it's one of those like this,
- 1:23:10maybe if the skills haven't degraded, but he's just really breasting of the
- 1:23:13plate and is really really struggling. So I think the talent' still there.
- 1:23:16So he's the onely guy, like in a dynasty league. If somebody goes
- 1:23:19on from you know, from him, I might be picking him up just
- 1:23:23to put him on my bench, because I think that there is a pretty
- 1:23:26good upside here at some point if he figures it out for a low cost.
- 1:23:30But like not a guy I'm relying on by any means, Like you
- 1:23:33can squint and look and go, yeah, I see something here, because
- 1:23:35he was a darling coming in the off season right people thought he was gonna
- 1:23:40break out, and I still see that in there. I still see it
- 1:23:42in there. But he just absolutely looks lost, and I don't think it's
- 1:23:46going to turn around anytime soon. When you start pressing, you need a
- 1:23:49reset, and I think you're right like it. He might get sit down
- 1:23:53and I don't. I don't, wouldn't fault, would not fault Detroit one
- 1:23:57one bit for doing so. Yeah, I agree. Okay, let's go
- 1:24:01on to our next bat where we are likely cutting, and that is Ian
- 1:24:08Happ, outfielder for the Cubs, who has opened the season, hitting two
- 1:24:12nineteen with one homer, one stolen base. The runs are there. The
- 1:24:16RBI is a little bit light at thirteen, but certainly this has been a
- 1:24:23struggle out the gate. As you've seen the strikeout percentage spike for Ian Hap.
- 1:24:29He has gone up to a twenty eight point strikeout rate, the barrel
- 1:24:33rate has dropped to seven percent, with a hard hit rate also falling to
- 1:24:39thirty six percent. I think he's a free agent after this year as well,
- 1:24:43too, so he's a little bit like the Glabor camp of you'd wonder
- 1:24:46if he's trying to press a little bit for that big deal. But what
- 1:24:53actually worries me about Ian Happ going forward to is that there's a lot of
- 1:24:58talent on that Cubs team, and if he doesn't kick it into a higher
- 1:25:02gear here pretty soon as the Cubs claw with the Brewers for the Inel Central
- 1:25:09title over the summer, I don't think it's unreasonable that, you know,
- 1:25:15Ian might be riding the pine more as they put Pete crow Armstrong in center
- 1:25:19field for his defense and just shuffle things around to keep hot bats and hot
- 1:25:24players playing over Ian Hap, who's currently just struggling significantly. I think Another
- 1:25:30reason that you can be looking to cut him is the upside's not exactly like
- 1:25:36crazy huge that you can see this in you want to talk about players projections
- 1:25:42really falling off. You know, he is in the two forties across the
- 1:25:46board. I think that's where the batting average will be at for the rest
- 1:25:51of the season at max. And then you know you're looking at somebody who's
- 1:25:57only going to give you maybe low teens homers handful of storm bases that you
- 1:26:01compare it to where his preseason projections were. They've all taken a step back
- 1:26:05on Ian Hap and because of that, I mean, I think certainly ten
- 1:26:11teams you can you've probably already moved on for me in Hap, but I
- 1:26:15think this is probably the week in twelve teamers that you've probably got to make
- 1:26:18a move on Ian Happen getting him off of your squad as well, because
- 1:26:23it's just been real bleak out there. Yeah, I think Ian has value
- 1:26:27in the past has been he's relatively well rounded, like there wasn't one thing
- 1:26:30that was great, but he was also that player that was just like on
- 1:26:35the edge of being good, and you know, speed like he's he's delivered
- 1:26:42ten to fifteen stone bases. He's literally just league average speed power. He's
- 1:26:46fifteen to twenty power guy. But if you look at the homers, he's
- 1:26:49hit like, you know, the vast majority of them just barely making it
- 1:26:54out like they're He's not the guy that's hitting all these no doubters all over
- 1:26:58the place like in so he's with any little skill skill regression, he becomes
- 1:27:04this guy that isn't a Gutnam based isn't it for power? It is barely
- 1:27:09running like that's I think that's what's happening. And so you're absolutely right.
- 1:27:15They have other talent there. He'll have a leash still, but unless he
- 1:27:18really turns things around, and there's nothing that I'm looking at but tells me
- 1:27:23he will, like it looks like he just is kind of balling on the
- 1:27:27wrong side like of the meme this time around this year, And I think
- 1:27:32there's gonna be owners that kind of cling on to him because they know what
- 1:27:36he has done in the past, but not realizing that he was skinna,
- 1:27:41you know, squeaking by by the skin of his teeth. Uh, these
- 1:27:44these priorities. So yeah, half is one. I'm I'm very easily out
- 1:27:47on this point, I'm dropping him twelve team or no, no questions asked.
- 1:27:51Yeah. And this next guy, I think also is another player who
- 1:27:58has been squeaking by by the skin of his teeth is Nick Castillanas from Philadelphia
- 1:28:03outfielder. He is currently slashing two oh six two seventy six three h nine.
- 1:28:09That's a five eighty five ops from Nick Castillanos. That is brutal considering
- 1:28:15if you were drafting him, you were looking for lots more power. Uh.
- 1:28:18This is another guy who I actually don't have any shares of because I
- 1:28:21was out during draft season. You could see it last year that he was
- 1:28:27starting to show show old man skills as a thirty one year old, that
- 1:28:30the contact rates were starting to drop. The overall just kind of batted ball
- 1:28:35metrics in terms of well, not his barrel rate, but uh, I
- 1:28:42guess twenty twenty two he was banged up though as well. So, I
- 1:28:45mean when you consider that some of the hard hit rate metrics were starting to
- 1:28:49taper off, and he just looked a lot more lost at the plate last
- 1:28:54year with his twenty seven point six percent k rate, and that has come
- 1:28:58back again this year. That Cassianos he go to his Baseball Savont Page.
- 1:29:03Everything is blue, which is not great if you're kind of a DH only
- 1:29:10slugger feigning it in the outfield. You know that if you're not bringing anything
- 1:29:14to the plate, that's really tough. I think again, this is another
- 1:29:17guy where the projections have already kind of caught back up, and you can
- 1:29:23see it in the steamer line. He's only projected for two forty nine average,
- 1:29:27fourteen homers, six dolen bases. Honestly, that's pretty much Ian happ
- 1:29:31going forward, which is not what you want out of your power slugger if
- 1:29:35you're the Phillies or a fantasy owner. So yeah, I'm in the same
- 1:29:40sort of boat with Nick cassianis that if there is an intriguing option on your
- 1:29:45fantasy waiver wires, I think you've probably already moved on in a ten team.
- 1:29:48I hope you have in a twelve team. I think this is probably
- 1:29:53the time to cut him loose, because it does look like this is where
- 1:29:58cassianis is career kind of is about to really fall into a chasm, and
- 1:30:03this is kind of the type of guy who looks like dfa DH fourth outfielder
- 1:30:11fodder. Yeah, you know, I think the only thing that's held Castianos
- 1:30:15on this long is that, you know, not too long ago, he
- 1:30:18was a thirty homer guy hitting three hundred in Cincinnati, and he's had some
- 1:30:23playoff roics, like he's looked fabulous in the brightest lights, and so that's
- 1:30:27kind of shielded him from really who Nick Castianos really really is. And I
- 1:30:32have nothing to disagree with what you said there, he just isn't doing what
- 1:30:39you need him to do, especially as the DH like he's JD Martinez five
- 1:30:44to ten years earlier. That just put JD. Martinez is like a mid
- 1:30:47forties guy, but feels right. But yeah, he's younger than this.
- 1:30:55JD Martinez is one year younger than us. Oh god, old, I
- 1:31:02feel like I can run faster in Martinez. Different discussion, but yeah,
- 1:31:08I think Castiano he's an easy, easy cut at this point. I don't
- 1:31:14you can't even trade the guy. It's not even worth trying to. Yeah,
- 1:31:17I think I totally agree with you. Okay, Well, that's going
- 1:31:21to bring us to our last player for this consideration, and that is our
- 1:31:27April Player of the Month. We just create a PC for him last week,
- 1:31:30and now we're cutting him. That is Colton Kowser from the Baltimore Orioles
- 1:31:34As. After he opened March and April with a three h three three seventy
- 1:31:41two six thirty two line with six homers, things have gone just a little
- 1:31:47bit south in May, as he has hit one twenty five two thirty seven
- 1:31:54eight uh to open this month with a twenty eight point nine k percent,
- 1:31:59which actually isn't as bad as I thought it was going to be. Let
- 1:32:01me see if you started dipping into April, though, it's he started even
- 1:32:06slumping into like the end of April that you know, over his past twenty
- 1:32:12games you're looking, it's been one forty eight average with a thirty one point
- 1:32:16five percent strikeout. Right, This is why Colton Kowser was always kind of
- 1:32:21risky out the gate. You probably didn't invest any draft capital into him,
- 1:32:26but I know plenty of people out there spent just about a quarter to half
- 1:32:32of their fab budget on him back in April. But this was where you
- 1:32:38could see it all falling apart. For Kowser is that he's always had strikeout
- 1:32:42issues coming through the minors, and when he has gotten major league opportunities,
- 1:32:47sure he does hit the snot out of the ball, but he's swinging so
- 1:32:50hard it's hard to make contact at the same time, and he's going to
- 1:32:55start running into issues Like Ian Half in terms of playing time, I think
- 1:33:00that this is a loaded franchise in terms of the bats and the one and
- 1:33:04who they're bringing through development in the minors that Colton Kowser is not assured of
- 1:33:12his spot in that lineup, much like Ian Happ or what we're talking about
- 1:33:17with Spenser Torkosen that you can easily see where Kowser gets sent back down to
- 1:33:23Triple A if this continues on for much longer. But yeah, I'm this
- 1:33:29one. I'm I can see holding Kowser just because the upside is pretty tremendous.
- 1:33:32We saw it in April, but now that the league is adjusting back
- 1:33:36to him, he's been struggling to readjust so if you are looking for a
- 1:33:42little bit more of like a ceiling guy, I think compared to anybody else
- 1:33:45we've talked about, Kowser probably has it just because of his youth and his
- 1:33:51just overall newness to the league. But things have been really brutal. If
- 1:33:56you've had him for the past three four weeks and certainly, I can understand
- 1:34:01if it's time for you to move on, Brew What do you think do
- 1:34:05you think Kowser has the skills to turn this around and be like useful or
- 1:34:13is it just like a straight cut and don't look back. I think there
- 1:34:17there is a CounterPunch coming with Colton Kowser is just because he's he's gone,
- 1:34:21you know, so far each way, so I think he can pull a
- 1:34:26little of this back. You know, it looks like, you know,
- 1:34:30he's he's really just struggling with the outside pitch, like he outside third of
- 1:34:34the plate. He is just dreadful. He can't do anything, as the
- 1:34:38leagues figured that out, and they are pounding him away and he can't do
- 1:34:42anything anything with it, which I think is kind of the the issue for
- 1:34:45him. I also think at the same time, he's one of those that,
- 1:34:50you know, he's struggled. He's not playing against the lefties that much.
- 1:34:56They're pretty much poluting him at this point. And I think that's the
- 1:35:00biggest concern with Kowser is playing time in Baltimore. We've talked about this a
- 1:35:05few times. Baltimore is just loaded with hitters and young hitters. They've got
- 1:35:11guys sitting in the minors with Mayo Norby, here's Tad on the bench like
- 1:35:18that, there's guys that they can they can turn to, and they will
- 1:35:21turn to. And even though I think Cowser is kind of in between the
- 1:35:25two things we've seen so far this season, I don't think he's a phenomenal
- 1:35:30hitter. He had a ton of luck to start the season. We talked
- 1:35:31about that with the Rookie of the Month selections, But I'm not quite straight
- 1:35:40cutting him. But I'm hard looking at trading him and not regretting it.
- 1:35:45I'm I'm absolutely wanting to be looked at as the Patsy that was like,
- 1:35:49well, I'm cutting Baked because this guy looks and everybody else thinking like,
- 1:35:53hey, I'm getting ah, You're just you're just scared from a couple of
- 1:35:56rough weeks, Like I'm not sure if I can tell you that used car,
- 1:36:00please please take it. So I am worried about Kowser. I do
- 1:36:05think he's better than what he's been the last few weeks. I don't think
- 1:36:08he's goods what he was earlier in the season. That's like the easiest thing
- 1:36:11in the world to say, I get it. Yeah, but I think
- 1:36:15he's like a bottom of the order league average hitter at the end of the
- 1:36:17day. Yeah, I mean, I think part of it too is he's
- 1:36:21gonna be one of these super streaky hitters given the swing and missing his game.
- 1:36:27You can see it in the like similar batters on his Baseball Savant page.
- 1:36:30There are some pretty streaky dudes in there in terms of Tascar Hernandez O'Neil
- 1:36:34Cruz Elie de la Cruz, who just have massive power but massive strikeouts because
- 1:36:42they swing so hard and you know sometimes that can't run into a pitch every
- 1:36:47time. The thing that separates Kawser from those three, though, is that
- 1:36:51Kowser, like we've harped on here, just doesn't have a lock on playing
- 1:36:57time. So he needs to produce to be able to keep playing, I
- 1:37:00think, and this is an Orioles team that is in a dogfight for the
- 1:37:04Al East. They really can't ride out all the ups and downs and just
- 1:37:09kind of take I think if you plugged in Colton Kowser and just had him
- 1:37:13play for an entire year, like he'd be like a two forty hitter with
- 1:37:16thirty five bombs and you know, a handful of storm bases and you know,
- 1:37:21something akin to like eighty runs and one hundred rbi, which would be
- 1:37:26fantastic, but it would the peaks and valleys would be extreme through that season.
- 1:37:31And the problem that I think Kowser is going to face in Baltimore and
- 1:37:35makes them cuttable is that, like, I don't know if he's going to
- 1:37:39be allowed to play through those valleys, and so certainly, like I'm actually
- 1:37:45a little surprised at Kowser's on the Orioles. I thought he was going to
- 1:37:46be one of the dudes who was moved out of town, especially if he
- 1:37:49had moved in that Milwaukee trade for Burns, that would have been great.
- 1:37:54But certainly, like, yeah, if Kowser was on a different team where
- 1:37:59he didn't have to worry about who was behind him and looking over his shoulder
- 1:38:01the entire time, I think he would be an easy keep because that's just
- 1:38:08a really nice roto profile to be able to ride for an entire season.
- 1:38:12At this point, I just don't know if he gets that opportunity in Baltimore
- 1:38:15for an entire season. Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. So it's
- 1:38:17it's it's weird to say because I don't think we're selling the player as much
- 1:38:23as it is the situation. Yeah, I think I agree there. Okay,
- 1:38:27well that should wrap us up for this week. We will be back
- 1:38:31again next week. I know you've got some top one hundred hitter profiles coming
- 1:38:36out on this weekend where you're you're releasing your your fresh top one hundred,
- 1:38:43right, is that the plan? Yep, be releasing the top one hundred
- 1:38:45for the rest of the season. You know, it's we really shook it
- 1:38:48up a few weeks ago, had to make a lot of big moves,
- 1:38:50and hopefully we're kind of settling in a little bit now for the rest of
- 1:38:54the season. But this is this is where it gets tough, because,
- 1:38:57you know, are you the guys we just talked about, like how far
- 1:39:00down do you move them? How far out are you looking? Because we're
- 1:39:03talking the rest of the season, We're not talking about what they've already done.
- 1:39:06And I think that's where where it gets interesting because remember of the times
- 1:39:10that I have folks asking questions like, again, Julio's terrible, why is
- 1:39:15he ranked still in the top you know fifteen, Why aren't you doing something
- 1:39:17that I think because Julio can still be a top fifteen player he should be.
- 1:39:21Now we've talked about he's not maybe a top five, which people want
- 1:39:25to want him to be. But I think that this is where it gets
- 1:39:29gets tough from ranking perspective, is you're looking where can the rest of the
- 1:39:32season be? When will guys be healthy? What can they do for you
- 1:39:35the rest of the season. It's not about what they've already done and what
- 1:39:39they're already done. That's just just icing on the cake or the water to
- 1:39:44the bridge, however you want to look at it. So Top one hundred
- 1:39:45coming out this Sunday, jump out there, argue about it because I know
- 1:39:49we're coming back next week and you're going to accuse me of everything I got
- 1:39:53wrong, and I can't wait. Yeah, I'm going to use some of
- 1:39:56those comments points on you too. So yeah, if the more unhinged comments,
- 1:40:01if you can get into bruise article and drop them, I will leverage
- 1:40:04them for our discussion on the pod next week. Where can people find you
- 1:40:10on Twitter if they want to reach you? Yep, find me on Twitter,
- 1:40:12slash x or whatever we're calling it these days, Jaybrewer one seven,
- 1:40:16like I said, and also find me ras Ball on Sundays. How about
- 1:40:19you. Yep, you can find me on ras ball on Saturday doing the
- 1:40:24waiver wire report. Like I said when we were previewing that drop segment that
- 1:40:30if you are looking to drop any of those guys, check in on who
- 1:40:32I suggest to pick up this Saturday. That can help you with your moves
- 1:40:38and transactions for this weekend. You can find me on Twitter slash x at
- 1:40:42m cool seven. Same thing for Blue Sky. You can find the pod
- 1:40:46on Twitter slash x at cards categories. You can also email the pod at
- 1:40:50cards categories at gmail dot com. We've got merch in the show notes,
- 1:40:58so if you're looking for a new half our shirt and want to wrap our
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- 1:41:56won't lie about that, so yes, thanks again for checking us out here
- 1:42:00on cards and categories. We will be back, same time, same place,
- 1:42:03next week. Take care of buddy,