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NFL Week 13 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:05
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:11
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:14
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
0:17
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:20
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
0:25
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
0:29
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
0:34
Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
0:37
Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
0:42
Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
0:44
Speaker 1: March eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
0:46
Speaker 1: know it's March ninth? I think who even knows? Man,
0:50
Speaker 1: I don't know what DAT is anymore. But I don't
0:53
Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
0:55
Speaker 1: after the worst stay that I can possibly have, Back
0:59
Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
1:02
Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
1:06
Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
1:10
Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
1:13
Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
1:16
Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:22
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
1:25
Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
1:33
Speaker 1: Toad back with you, Toad Suel Sports NFL Week thirteen edition.
1:39
Speaker 1: Don't even fucking talk to me. Three straight losing days
1:42
Speaker 1: in a row, everybody, everything can get fucked. I don't
1:47
Speaker 1: even know what else to say about this fucking shit.
1:49
Speaker 1: I'm so fucking sick of college football. I hope the
1:53
Speaker 1: entire sport goes to hell. I'm glad that it's fucking over.
1:58
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna have, maybe, like I don't know, a
2:00
Speaker 1: couple more plays left. If I even want to do it,
2:03
Speaker 1: I might just abandon college football completely. We have Baylor
2:07
Speaker 1: putting themselves in a giant hole with two turnovers in
2:11
Speaker 1: the first quarter. You had just throw the game away,
2:13
Speaker 1: why not? And then they have to come back and
2:16
Speaker 1: tie the fucking game in the fourth quarter and then
2:19
Speaker 1: still lose bite me, fuck you. And then fucking Auburn,
2:24
Speaker 1: I mean, they fall behind seventeen and nothing and then
2:26
Speaker 1: they come all the way back they get to it
2:28
Speaker 1: it seventeen to thirteen. Oh yeah, and then there's this
2:31
Speaker 1: fucking horrendous penalty call on Auburn where they not only
2:35
Speaker 1: called roughing the passer, but they call well, they elevated
2:38
Speaker 1: it to targeting. So on a third down play by
2:41
Speaker 1: the way, and it was clearly not targeting. It wasn't
2:43
Speaker 1: even roughing. The guy tried to slow up, he just
2:46
Speaker 1: couldn't stop his momentum and he ran into the QB anyway,
2:49
Speaker 1: he couldn't stop, he was too close to him. Anyway,
2:52
Speaker 1: That gives Alabama first down because the rest is gonna
2:55
Speaker 1: fucking hand them the first down. That gave them a
2:57
Speaker 1: field goal on that drive. And that's why the fucking
3:00
Speaker 1: the game. And then still even after that, Auburn ties
3:03
Speaker 1: the fucking game. They have a chance to win. And
3:05
Speaker 1: then no, at least they're gonna cover as long as
3:07
Speaker 1: the Alabama just kicks a field goal. No, that doesn't
3:10
Speaker 1: happen either, they get a fucking touchdown. Get fucking fucked.
3:14
Speaker 1: I am so fucking sick of this fucking shit. I'm
3:17
Speaker 1: so fucking sick of college football. Fuck Like, seriously, college
3:22
Speaker 1: basketball not even good Louisiana Tech easy cover with that one.
3:26
Speaker 1: Texas State loses the game outright. They lose the three
3:30
Speaker 1: point battle what like thirteen to two or something almost impossible.
3:34
Speaker 1: The other team, whoever even was shot LEI I think
3:37
Speaker 1: shot like fifty percent for three point range against them.
3:41
Speaker 1: Basically the same thing happened with Tennessee Tech, like more
3:44
Speaker 1: than fifty percent three pointers hit against them in the game.
3:47
Speaker 1: They were sort of in the game until late in
3:50
Speaker 1: the game, and then that just went completely haywire Fordham
3:53
Speaker 1: did cover and win easily. Whatever, And then we did
3:57
Speaker 1: win in hockey with Buffalo barely. They were able to
4:00
Speaker 1: come back from down one goal and they fucking won.
4:03
Speaker 1: And then the Denver Nuggets, because I don't get any
4:06
Speaker 1: NBA games wrong, ever, the Denver Nuggets did win fuck
4:11
Speaker 1: four and four, losing day again. Fuck you get fucked.
4:15
Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about an NFL and nobody should even
4:17
Speaker 1: fucking listen to me. I'm done with this shit, dude,
4:20
Speaker 1: I'm not even kidding you. I'm gonna I'm gonna cancel
4:23
Speaker 1: the show like I don't wanna. I do not want
4:26
Speaker 1: to do the show anymore. I'm fucking done, Like I
4:29
Speaker 1: don't know what else to say about this. Three losing
4:32
Speaker 1: days in a row just unbelievably frustrating in every possible
4:36
Speaker 1: fucking way, when every single one should have been, like
4:39
Speaker 1: almost all of them should have been a winning day
4:40
Speaker 1: except for maybe one of them. Why do I have
4:42
Speaker 1: my headphones on? I don't fucking know. Seriously, I'm not
4:47
Speaker 1: gonna interact with the audience at all. I'll tell you
4:49
Speaker 1: what I think about these games. I don't care, and
4:52
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to wait for the best bets as
4:54
Speaker 1: well as usual. But also, they're both in the primetime
4:57
Speaker 1: games because every other one of these games is and
5:00
Speaker 1: I have no idea what to even think about them.
5:02
Speaker 1: San Francisco and Cleveland. Yeah, okay, Cleveland is ass shitter
5:07
Speaker 1: Sanders shitter Sanders. He's obviously not good. Why did they
5:12
Speaker 1: win last week? Oh? Yeah, because I'm an idiot and
5:14
Speaker 1: I forgot that the Raiders are the worst team in
5:17
Speaker 1: the NFL and absolute fucking shit. And they fired Chip
5:21
Speaker 1: Kelly after the game because their offense is so bad.
5:24
Speaker 1: Was that win anything that Sanders didn't know? He was
5:28
Speaker 1: barely above fifty percent. He did basically nothing in the game.
5:31
Speaker 1: The Raiders offense is the problem. The Browns defense is good. Yeah,
5:36
Speaker 1: will they hold up against the forty nine ers? Don't
5:38
Speaker 1: ask me. The last time the forty nine ers played
5:41
Speaker 1: at Cleveland a couple of years ago. They did lose
5:43
Speaker 1: to Cleveland, but the forty nine ers were dealing with
5:46
Speaker 1: a bunch of offensive injuries. Although I guess they're dealing with
5:49
Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries this time too, except most of
5:51
Speaker 1: them on defense. Brock Purty is back. He's been back
5:55
Speaker 1: for a couple of games now. Forty nine Ers looked
5:57
Speaker 1: pretty decent on Monday night. I want to be correct
6:00
Speaker 1: on that game. So they are in a short week
6:02
Speaker 1: having to travel for a road out of conference game,
6:05
Speaker 1: which I do say, those are the games that mean
6:07
Speaker 1: the least on your schedule, and maybe they are looking
6:10
Speaker 1: forward to this by after this, So I mean, I
6:14
Speaker 1: would probably lean towards taking the points with Cleveland in
6:16
Speaker 1: this one. But I mean, is that going to be
6:18
Speaker 1: a play? No, absolutely it is not. I don't even
6:23
Speaker 1: see the game because I'm going out of order, I
6:25
Speaker 1: guess because I started with ESPN schedule. Because I'm all
6:27
Speaker 1: out of sorts here. This is still in the one
6:29
Speaker 1: pm slate. Forty nine Ers are five point favorite. That
6:33
Speaker 1: opening number was actually the look ahead number, I'm pretty sure,
6:36
Speaker 1: which is a different market. So based on last week,
6:39
Speaker 1: the line has actually moved. Oh because Shitar Sanders looked
6:42
Speaker 1: so good, right, so let's move the line off of
6:45
Speaker 1: what we saw last week. What so it looks like
6:48
Speaker 1: the money is actually coming in on the nine or
6:50
Speaker 1: sixty one percent. It gets seventy percent of the cash
6:52
Speaker 1: on them if you want to get like picks for
6:55
Speaker 1: pick and pulls. I don't know why you're here, because
6:57
Speaker 1: I'm already owned four this week. It's already the worst
7:00
Speaker 1: week that I've had all year. I don't even know
7:03
Speaker 1: what I would do with this game. Take the points
7:04
Speaker 1: with Cleveland, I guess just based on what I think
7:08
Speaker 1: the situation looks like. I don't know, it's a complete guess.
7:11
Speaker 1: I mean, the market looks like it doesn't agree with it. Whatever.
7:15
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and Tennessee Jacksonville don't even want to talk about them.
7:19
Speaker 1: Arizona should have won that game last week, another bullshit
7:23
Speaker 1: loss that we had, and I know that three was
7:25
Speaker 1: out there like really early in the week. Should have
7:28
Speaker 1: given it out of that, should have gotten into that
7:30
Speaker 1: even though I don't give out the plays until the
7:32
Speaker 1: end of the week whatever. Arizona probably should have won
7:35
Speaker 1: the game out right, they didn't. I'm pissed. Now you
7:38
Speaker 1: have Jacksonville coming out of an overtime game out in Arizona,
7:42
Speaker 1: coming back home. It is a divisional game, But they
7:45
Speaker 1: do have Indianapolis up next, so that does look like
7:47
Speaker 1: a little bit of a look ahead component. They haven't
7:49
Speaker 1: even faced the Colts yet, and the Colts still leading
7:52
Speaker 1: to the division. It's gonna be a big game Jacksonville.
7:56
Speaker 1: Might they overlook Tennessee? Maybe? I mean they also haven't
7:59
Speaker 1: played Tennessee yet, which is this schedule is totally bizarre.
8:03
Speaker 1: The fact that Jacksonville's playing two of their division fos
8:06
Speaker 1: twice in the remaining whatever that is six weeks doesn't
8:10
Speaker 1: make any sense. So schedule makers probably high when they
8:14
Speaker 1: made the schedule. Tennessee played pretty well last week actually,
8:18
Speaker 1: all things considered, and they covered at home against Seattle.
8:21
Speaker 1: They are staying at home. But I don't really want
8:24
Speaker 1: any part of this because again Tennessee is coming off
8:27
Speaker 1: a pretty big game themselves. But at least what that
8:29
Speaker 1: does say is that well Tennessee can actually play competitively. Hey, Jaguars.
8:34
Speaker 1: It looked like they were gonna be seven on the
8:36
Speaker 1: opening number. Now there's six, so you won't be able
8:38
Speaker 1: to get the touchdown with Tennessee. It doesn't look like,
8:40
Speaker 1: but I don't know, Jags are gonna be the public
8:43
Speaker 1: side because the public doesn't want anything to do with Tennessee. Ever,
8:46
Speaker 1: sixty five percent of ticket, seventy three percent of the
8:48
Speaker 1: cash on the Jags. The money is saying the Jags,
8:51
Speaker 1: just like it was saying with the forty nine ers.
8:53
Speaker 1: I probably don't agree with it. I would probably take
8:56
Speaker 1: the points, even though I think home Dogs are actually
8:58
Speaker 1: not as good. Later in this and Houston at my
9:02
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts, also in the one PM slay. By the way,
9:06
Speaker 1: Indianapolis has just revealed that Daniel Jones has been playing
9:10
Speaker 1: for weeks with a broken leg and he's just still
9:13
Speaker 1: out there playing with a broken fibula, So like, like,
9:17
Speaker 1: what are you even doing? Man? Like Anthony Richardson, is
9:20
Speaker 1: he healthy? I don't even know. I don't know what's
9:22
Speaker 1: going on. Why is Daniel Jones playing with a broken fibula?
9:25
Speaker 1: I have no idea, And his leg is probably gonna
9:28
Speaker 1: get torn off by this Houston defense I mean, do
9:31
Speaker 1: you want a fragile quarterback like that going up against
9:34
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in football? Probably not Houston.
9:39
Speaker 1: I mean, we gotta win with them on Thursday. Oh yeah,
9:41
Speaker 1: I actually won an NFL game at one point last
9:44
Speaker 1: Thursday with Houston beating Buffalo outright, that was a big
9:48
Speaker 1: win for Houston. You could argue they're in maybe a
9:51
Speaker 1: letdown spot after that, But do they really have a
9:53
Speaker 1: letdown spot when they're playing the team that they need
9:55
Speaker 1: to beat to move up in the division, Indianapolis. I
9:59
Speaker 1: don't think so. I don't. I think they could possibly
10:00
Speaker 1: have a letdown when Indianapolis is their opponent. Houston does
10:04
Speaker 1: have an extra time off, although that extra time off
10:06
Speaker 1: because it was last Thursday when they played, might hurt
10:10
Speaker 1: them a little bit because they had momentum going into that.
10:13
Speaker 1: Three wins in a row. You don't really want to
10:14
Speaker 1: stop playing and all through your schedules, so maybe that's
10:17
Speaker 1: a little bit of a negative. Indianapolis, though, they're coming
10:20
Speaker 1: to off a really difficult game themselves against Kansas City,
10:23
Speaker 1: pretty physical Kansas City defense on the road overtime, and
10:27
Speaker 1: now Indianapolis is having a turnaround and play after that
10:30
Speaker 1: they did have a bye the previous week, so I
10:32
Speaker 1: guess that might help them maybe not be totally fatigued
10:35
Speaker 1: after that. The spot to me doesn't look great for
10:38
Speaker 1: either team, But with both teams probably showing up here,
10:41
Speaker 1: I probably have to lean to taking the points With
10:43
Speaker 1: the Texans. I mean, you're looking at the team that's
10:46
Speaker 1: below the other team in the division right now, so
10:48
Speaker 1: they need it more. They're getting points, and they're the
10:51
Speaker 1: better defense, and they have a little bit of rest,
10:54
Speaker 1: and both teams are coming off huge games. Texans plus
10:57
Speaker 1: the points is probably the lean there. But again, don't
11:00
Speaker 1: listen to me. I don't have strong opinions on any
11:02
Speaker 1: of these games. So what am I even doing? Uh?
11:04
Speaker 1: Fifty eight percent of ticket sixty nine percent of the
11:07
Speaker 1: cash on the Colts. Money looks like it's on the Colts.
11:10
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna have to look at these market
11:12
Speaker 1: reads again in the morning because a lot of them
11:13
Speaker 1: might change around, because a lot of them are just
11:16
Speaker 1: going against what I think. Saints and Miami I mean
11:21
Speaker 1: the Saints. I mean the Saints. Their defense actually has
11:25
Speaker 1: not been that bad, so we gotta give them that.
11:27
Speaker 1: Other offense has been terrible with Shaw Shock shoe shuck. Fuck,
11:33
Speaker 1: what is this guy's name? I don't fucking know. Shuck,
11:36
Speaker 1: He's he's just chucking it up out there, by which
11:41
Speaker 1: I mean he's vomiting on the field in a football manner.
11:46
Speaker 1: I mean, they just lost pretty badly to the Falcons
11:48
Speaker 1: last week at home. Will the Saints bounce back from that? Maybe?
11:52
Speaker 1: I mean the Saints are playing out the stretch. I mean,
11:54
Speaker 1: I think they're at least gonna try to avoid embarrassment.
11:57
Speaker 1: Their defense is at least kind of keeping them in
11:59
Speaker 1: some game. And their opponent here is the Miami Dolphins,
12:02
Speaker 1: who everybody is saying that Miami's gonna go on a
12:06
Speaker 1: run here and make the playoffs. Yeah, that's not gonna happen.
12:10
Speaker 1: Miami's won two games in a row. Yeah, they caught
12:12
Speaker 1: Buffalo in a great spot to catch them. Buffalo was
12:14
Speaker 1: off the huge win over Kansas City. We know that
12:17
Speaker 1: I gave up Miami plus the points on the show.
12:20
Speaker 1: I actually want to play there you go. And I
12:23
Speaker 1: thought Miami was gonna be in a letdown spot after
12:25
Speaker 1: that going to Madrid to play this ma dreadful Washington team,
12:30
Speaker 1: and Miami still won the game, even though they only
12:32
Speaker 1: scored sixteen points in overtime. Washington had many chances to
12:36
Speaker 1: win that game. Yeah, I lost to play there, of
12:39
Speaker 1: course I did. I'm fucking passed. Still. Now Miami went
12:44
Speaker 1: into a bye and they went into a bye I
12:45
Speaker 1: think at an inopportune time, because again, you don't want
12:48
Speaker 1: to go into a buy on multiple straight wins, man,
12:50
Speaker 1: because it can hurt your momentum. So I would take
12:53
Speaker 1: the points of the Saints in this game. Don't feel
12:56
Speaker 1: that strongly about it. You're getting five. I mean Miami
13:00
Speaker 1: laying has Miami beating anybody by five besides that fluke
13:03
Speaker 1: Buffalo game. Yeah, they did it to Atlantai, I guess.
13:06
Speaker 1: But I mean those games are just wild, like freak
13:09
Speaker 1: of nature games. I mean, that was Kirk Cousins coming
13:12
Speaker 1: back and he looked totally dead. I mean, I don't know, man,
13:15
Speaker 1: Miami beat the Jets by more than that, I guess
13:18
Speaker 1: just because the Jets turned it over a bunch. Yeah,
13:21
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't trust Miami to be laying
13:23
Speaker 1: points at all, especially not in that spot. Whatever. Again,
13:27
Speaker 1: it looks like the money doesn't agree with me. But
13:29
Speaker 1: this is what I have to say about that. Uh,
13:31
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent to take his eighty seven percent of
13:33
Speaker 1: the cash on the Dolphins. I would take the points
13:36
Speaker 1: with the Saints. I don't think I'm gonna change my
13:38
Speaker 1: opinion on that one. Oh yeah, the best game ever
13:42
Speaker 1: Falcons and Jets. Don't we want to watch that great game? Here? Falcons.
13:47
Speaker 1: Pennix is still out there, the Falcons that no longer
13:51
Speaker 1: have a pianist. He's he's out for the season. I'm
13:54
Speaker 1: pretty sure. So it's gonna be Kirk Cousins. Was that
13:56
Speaker 1: last game of Fluke? Was it because they were playing
13:59
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Saints are just that bad? I
14:02
Speaker 1: don't know. Now Atlanta's got to go on the road again.
14:04
Speaker 1: They gotta go to the Jets, and they do have
14:07
Speaker 1: Seattle up next and then Tampa Bay. I mean maybe
14:09
Speaker 1: they look ahead to those games because those are big
14:11
Speaker 1: conference games. They might not pay attention to the Jets here.
14:14
Speaker 1: I mean, who would The Jets are ass So I
14:17
Speaker 1: don't like it. I mean Atlanta having to go up
14:18
Speaker 1: to New York. It's also gonna be cold, which is
14:21
Speaker 1: probably not a good thing for Atlanta because they play
14:23
Speaker 1: in a dome and in warm weather. It'll be forty
14:26
Speaker 1: five and rainy, cold rain. Probably not good for the
14:30
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons going up there. The Jets, Yeah, they're terrible.
14:35
Speaker 1: I mean they I don't know, they're at least playing
14:39
Speaker 1: competitively ish, I guess. I mean they're coming up two
14:42
Speaker 1: games and they were double digit underdogs and they almost
14:45
Speaker 1: covered one, like they pushed against New England. And then
14:48
Speaker 1: they did cover I think by a half point against Baltimore.
14:50
Speaker 1: So they're at least staying within numbers like that. Now
14:53
Speaker 1: they're back at home. Probably the lean in this game
14:57
Speaker 1: is the Jets Falcons are already up to a three
15:00
Speaker 1: point favorite, so you get more value on the Jets
15:03
Speaker 1: if you wanted, also the Falcons if you think that
15:06
Speaker 1: the injured player theory was a thing. So they played
15:08
Speaker 1: well in that first game again with Kirk Cousins last week,
15:12
Speaker 1: this time they actually well played well was relative, but
15:15
Speaker 1: they won the game. But usually that second game they
15:17
Speaker 1: take a little bit of a step back after that.
15:19
Speaker 1: So I would probably take the points of the Jets.
15:22
Speaker 1: And again the market doesn't look like it agrees fifty
15:25
Speaker 1: five percent to take a sixty eight percent of the cash. Yeah,
15:28
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a bad week, I can tell you. Already.
15:30
Speaker 1: If my thoughts on these games are all disagreeing with
15:33
Speaker 1: the market, it's gonna be bad. One PM, Arizona has
15:37
Speaker 1: to fly east to face Tampa Bay. Arizona, we don't
15:41
Speaker 1: want to talk about them because they should have won
15:43
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville. What do you want? I wanted that win
15:47
Speaker 1: did not happen. Now Arizona, I mean, they'll keep losing
15:50
Speaker 1: all these like they've lost so many close games, dude,
15:53
Speaker 1: and then the games that they didn't lose close or
15:55
Speaker 1: just misleading scores where they actually either outgained their opponents
15:59
Speaker 1: seriously like they did to San Francisco, or the stats
16:03
Speaker 1: were like even like with the Seattle game. This Arizona team, man,
16:07
Speaker 1: they're still just not as bad as they look. But
16:09
Speaker 1: now they gonna go to the Eastern time zone, which
16:12
Speaker 1: I don't believe they've done this year, so it might
16:16
Speaker 1: be difficult for them. They're coming off that overtime game.
16:18
Speaker 1: They do have the Rams up next, so maybe that's
16:20
Speaker 1: a little bit of a look ahead. I mean, Arizona
16:22
Speaker 1: their season is basically over, so like, are they gonna
16:25
Speaker 1: get up for a game where they have to go
16:26
Speaker 1: to the East Coast? I mean it is Tampa They're
16:29
Speaker 1: an alright team, but I don't know man Arizona as
16:31
Speaker 1: a dead team. I mean, the games are gonna get
16:33
Speaker 1: up for that are remaining are probably just gonna be
16:36
Speaker 1: primetime games and or the remaining games against the divisional
16:39
Speaker 1: opponent that they still have left, which is the Rams.
16:42
Speaker 1: So I kind of like Tampa Bay in this spot.
16:44
Speaker 1: And we just saw Tampa Bay get absolutely embarrassed by
16:47
Speaker 1: those Rams on Sunday night. Everybody saw that game. Tampa
16:51
Speaker 1: was horrific in the game. The Rams annihilated them thirty
16:55
Speaker 1: four to seven. So usually when you see a team
16:57
Speaker 1: do that bad on primetime, you kind of want to
16:59
Speaker 1: look towards that team in the next game. Baker Mayfield
17:02
Speaker 1: got hurt in the game and Teddy Bridgewater came in.
17:04
Speaker 1: He looked like a I don't know, a fish out
17:09
Speaker 1: of Bridgewater. I'm a bridge out of water. Is that
17:11
Speaker 1: the thing? Whatever? He was bad. Obviously, I think he's
17:15
Speaker 1: not that bad of a quarterback. But he's old now
17:17
Speaker 1: and he's obviously he was out of practice. But we
17:20
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about that. Because Baker Mayfield looks
17:22
Speaker 1: like he is gonna play in this game. It does
17:25
Speaker 1: mean there's no injured player theory coming into this. But
17:27
Speaker 1: you're still looking at Tampa Bay. I think, probably bouncing
17:30
Speaker 1: back from that horrific loss last week. So I would
17:33
Speaker 1: lean to Tampa in this one. Where are they I
17:37
Speaker 1: don't know, Oh, they're listed as the Buccaneers here, eighty
17:39
Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets, eighty six percent of the
17:41
Speaker 1: cash on them. They're only a three and a half
17:43
Speaker 1: away favorite this It looks like the market completely overreacted
17:47
Speaker 1: just to the Buccaneers getting slaughtered last week. And you'd
17:51
Speaker 1: think that this line move would indicate that it's not
17:53
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield playing, but I'm almost positive he is. So
17:57
Speaker 1: it's absolutely insane that that line is gonna be six
18:00
Speaker 1: and a half and now it's three and a half
18:02
Speaker 1: for no other reason other than that Tampa Bay looked
18:05
Speaker 1: awful on Sunday night. That's the only reason. So yeah,
18:08
Speaker 1: you're getting some value at Tampa. Lean to Tampa in
18:11
Speaker 1: that game. One PM slay. The last game is the
18:14
Speaker 1: Rams going to Carolina. You know, these Pacific Coast teams
18:19
Speaker 1: going east not as bad as an East Coast team
18:23
Speaker 1: going west for a late night game, as I always say,
18:25
Speaker 1: but Pacific Coast going East for an early game. It's
18:27
Speaker 1: not exactly good, I don't think. And of course the
18:30
Speaker 1: Rams are the other end of that equation where they
18:32
Speaker 1: looked too good on Sunday night. I mean, Stafford, he's
18:36
Speaker 1: the favorite to win the MVP even though he's has
18:39
Speaker 1: he really been that good? I don't know. I think
18:41
Speaker 1: it's more of the team. The Rams are just playing
18:43
Speaker 1: really well as a team. Stafford's doing all right, but
18:46
Speaker 1: he's still an old man with a bad back. I mean,
18:48
Speaker 1: it would be kind of ridiculous if he gets the MVP,
18:50
Speaker 1: because really this is the Rams team doing this. Their
18:53
Speaker 1: defense is good, but they looked really good on Sunday night,
18:56
Speaker 1: probably too good. Now they're going to the East Coast,
18:59
Speaker 1: although I know they did that twice this year, and
19:01
Speaker 1: they kind of got screwed in the Philadelphia game because
19:05
Speaker 1: of that blocked field goal at the end of the game.
19:07
Speaker 1: Although the Rams were about to win that game outright,
19:11
Speaker 1: actually late in the game, and then they blew it,
19:13
Speaker 1: So I guess maybe that's a bad sign. The only
19:15
Speaker 1: game that they actually really did well on the East
19:18
Speaker 1: Coast was at Baltimore, but that was Baltimore without Lamar
19:21
Speaker 1: Jackson or though Lamar Jackson looks hurst right now anyway,
19:26
Speaker 1: so I don't know. But the Rams they have not
19:28
Speaker 1: made a travel, they have not had to travel like
19:30
Speaker 1: That's it's mid October, so the spot doesn't look that
19:33
Speaker 1: great to me, and they do have a divisional game
19:35
Speaker 1: up next against Arizona. Meanwhile, this is actually the battle
19:38
Speaker 1: of like the primetime teams, right Like, the Rams looked
19:42
Speaker 1: really good. They put up thirty four against Tampa Bay,
19:45
Speaker 1: blew Tampa Bay out on Sunday, and then on Monday
19:48
Speaker 1: night Carolina looked terrible, losing to San Francisco and only
19:52
Speaker 1: putting up nine points. So this is, yeah, the battle
19:55
Speaker 1: of the perception maybe missed perception off of one team
19:58
Speaker 1: looking way too good on primetime the other team looking
20:01
Speaker 1: really bad on prime tune. Though I still don't think
20:03
Speaker 1: Carolina is really this good. Even a six and six team,
20:06
Speaker 1: I don't think is what they are. I think they're
20:08
Speaker 1: a below five hundred team for sure. But in this spot,
20:13
Speaker 1: I mean, both teams are having to fly back to
20:14
Speaker 1: the East Coast though, so I don't love that necessarily
20:17
Speaker 1: really for Carolina. The both teams are having to make
20:20
Speaker 1: that travel. Carolina on a little bit of a shorter week,
20:22
Speaker 1: But I think you probably gotta take the points with
20:25
Speaker 1: Caroline if you're gonna play this game. I mean asking
20:27
Speaker 1: the Rams to cover is a double digit favorite on
20:30
Speaker 1: the road, I don't know, in a spot where they
20:32
Speaker 1: just look way too good on Sunday night, I would
20:35
Speaker 1: take the points with the Panthers. Eighty three percent of tickets,
20:37
Speaker 1: eighty six percent of the cash on the Rams, you're
20:40
Speaker 1: gonna get at least ten. Probably on the Panthers. Not
20:43
Speaker 1: a high total really either, at forty five. So that's
20:46
Speaker 1: what I would do them. Four PM slate Minnesota at Seattle, Minnesota.
20:53
Speaker 1: What are we gonna do with Minnesota? Man, Minnesota. JJ
20:56
Speaker 1: McCarthy is out, and I think that's it's probably a
21:00
Speaker 1: good thing. Like could anybody be worse than McCarthy was
21:03
Speaker 1: last week? He was so bad last week. Addison is
21:07
Speaker 1: on my fantasy team and Addison had zero points, so
21:10
Speaker 1: that didn't play him. He was on my bench. But
21:12
Speaker 1: still McCarthy, he is. He is not the real deal. Man.
21:16
Speaker 1: I think it's time for McCarthy just go away. Next
21:19
Speaker 1: guy in line, here we go. It's gonna be Max
21:22
Speaker 1: Brosmer making his first NFL start ever. He's played in
21:26
Speaker 1: a few games, not started, but he did play in
21:31
Speaker 1: a few games this year, so he does have experience.
21:34
Speaker 1: I guess in that regard that he's played a little bit,
21:37
Speaker 1: but we don't know what we're gonna get out of him,
21:39
Speaker 1: man Brosmer. I mean, the crowd might actually be fired
21:44
Speaker 1: up for this because Brosmer actually played in college at Minnesota,
21:47
Speaker 1: and he's playing for the Minnesota Vikings, so he's kind
21:51
Speaker 1: of the hometown guy here. So the crowd, well, it's
21:55
Speaker 1: not excuse me, it did Seattle. I was gonna say,
21:58
Speaker 1: the crowd might be up for that, but he's gonna
22:00
Speaker 1: have to go play in Seattle. But even so, there
22:03
Speaker 1: might be some advantages to Brosmer in that. A he's
22:06
Speaker 1: not JJ McCarthy, so he's not he might not be
22:09
Speaker 1: total ass. So we just don't know. We know McCarthy's ass,
22:13
Speaker 1: we just don't know if Brosmer's ass yet. But also
22:17
Speaker 1: Seattle might not know what to prep for because they
22:19
Speaker 1: don't there's no game film really on Brosmer, so they
22:22
Speaker 1: don't really know what the Minnesota defense is gonna do. Minnesota. Yeah,
22:26
Speaker 1: they're having to go to the Pacific coast. Yeah, I
22:28
Speaker 1: know it's not the easiest spot for them, but Minnesota
22:31
Speaker 1: looks so bad in that game against Green Bay, scoring
22:34
Speaker 1: six points. I kind of think they're gonna show up
22:37
Speaker 1: with a better effort this time. Seattle, Yeah, they're eight
22:39
Speaker 1: and three. I mean, they're probably not quite as good
22:42
Speaker 1: as that record would indicate. They're having to travel from
22:44
Speaker 1: Tennessee back to the Pacific Coast, so that's not easy either.
22:48
Speaker 1: I know, they kind of just scraped by Tennessee. I mean,
22:51
Speaker 1: they were covering at various points in that game. I
22:53
Speaker 1: don't think the game was ever in question as far
22:55
Speaker 1: as like Seattle wasn't gonna lose that game, but Tennessee
22:58
Speaker 1: did cut it to six late. I mean as far
23:02
Speaker 1: as Seattle, maybe some teams are gonna start figuring them out,
23:05
Speaker 1: because the Rams obviously did figure out Sam Donald, and
23:10
Speaker 1: they the Rams already figured him out last year. Sean
23:13
Speaker 1: mcvain knows how to stop Sam Donald. But maybe teams
23:16
Speaker 1: are gonna use that as kind of a you know,
23:18
Speaker 1: the teams can see that footage now and realize, oh,
23:21
Speaker 1: we know what to do with Sam Donald. Now. Maybe,
23:23
Speaker 1: I mean he didn't do that great against Tennessee last week.
23:26
Speaker 1: Now this is actually the Donald Bowl because he's going
23:29
Speaker 1: up against Minnesota. So there's a lot of things going
23:32
Speaker 1: on in this game. Donald might be pumped up for
23:34
Speaker 1: this because Minnesota got rid of them, and Minnesota basically said, nah,
23:39
Speaker 1: even though you did well for us last year, you
23:40
Speaker 1: choked in high pressure situations. You're on here. We're gonna
23:44
Speaker 1: go with JJ McCarthy. So I think Donald would be
23:46
Speaker 1: even more motivated if you got to face off against
23:49
Speaker 1: McCarthy here. But he'll probably be pissed and motivated because
23:52
Speaker 1: he's gonna face the team that got rid of him.
23:55
Speaker 1: But Minnesota, I mean, they know what Donald does, so
23:59
Speaker 1: the Minnesota coaching staff they know his tendencies and stuff.
24:02
Speaker 1: So it kind of goes both ways there. So what
24:04
Speaker 1: do you do with this game? I mean, I don't know.
24:06
Speaker 1: I mean, you pass the game in my opinion, But really,
24:10
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at what happened in this line,
24:12
Speaker 1: seven and a half was gonna be the line according
24:14
Speaker 1: to the look Ahead on Seattle. Obviously, now it's twelve
24:18
Speaker 1: just because the Vikings looked terrible last week and now
24:21
Speaker 1: it's Brosmer. But do you really think, like, well, first
24:24
Speaker 1: of all, the fact that the Vikings looked bad last week,
24:26
Speaker 1: shouldn't even really matter. But then, if you think this
24:29
Speaker 1: is all based on the quarterback situation, do you really
24:33
Speaker 1: think that it's worth moving the line four or five
24:35
Speaker 1: points with Is that really? Is it really that much
24:38
Speaker 1: of a drop off from McCarthy to Brosmer. I don't
24:42
Speaker 1: see how it could be. McCarthy's terrible. It might be
24:44
Speaker 1: an upgrade. Who even knows, So there's no way that
24:47
Speaker 1: you should be getting five more points eighty eight percent
24:50
Speaker 1: of tickets ninety one percent of the cash on Seattle.
24:52
Speaker 1: I would probably take the points with the Vikings. The
24:54
Speaker 1: Vikings they also blitz a lot on their defense, so
24:57
Speaker 1: they might be able to pressure Donald, and Donald does
25:00
Speaker 1: not do well usually against those styles of deepfense, so
25:05
Speaker 1: that's something to keep in mind. Also, in the four
25:07
Speaker 1: pm slate Eastern Buffalo is going to Pittsburgh. Buffalo is
25:11
Speaker 1: that extra time off after losing to Houston on Thursday,
25:15
Speaker 1: So I think Buffalo is gonna show up for this
25:17
Speaker 1: one after that, even though, yes, Houston is a punishing deepfense.
25:21
Speaker 1: So I think the fact that Buffalo has extra time
25:22
Speaker 1: off will help them because they lost that game, and
25:25
Speaker 1: it will help them recover a little bit from the
25:28
Speaker 1: damage that used to defense, cause they're going into Pittsburgh here.
25:32
Speaker 1: For Pittsburgh, this is a reverse injured player spot for Pittsburgh.
25:36
Speaker 1: So I know Pittsburgh lost last week debatably. They should
25:40
Speaker 1: not have fucked the Bears, obviously. The Bears continue to
25:43
Speaker 1: be the most fraudulent team that I've ever seen Pittsburgh.
25:47
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is coming back here. Mason Rudolph made his
25:51
Speaker 1: one start last week in the injured player spot. They
25:54
Speaker 1: did play decently in the game. Now it's gonna be
25:56
Speaker 1: Rogers again. You know what I always say, reverseinger player spot.
26:00
Speaker 1: When that star comes back, the team might take a
26:03
Speaker 1: little bit of a step back. He's got to get
26:05
Speaker 1: used to being back in there. The team has to
26:06
Speaker 1: get used to him being out there. So I don't
26:10
Speaker 1: like it for Pittsburgh. That's a negative. Pittsburgh does have
26:12
Speaker 1: Baltimore up next too, and then I'm not gonna say
26:14
Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh is gonna overlook Buffalo and Buffalo if I'm
26:19
Speaker 1: not mistake to Buffalo knock Pittsburgh out of the playoffs
26:21
Speaker 1: last No, that was two years ago. Baltimore knocked them
26:24
Speaker 1: out last year, so Pittsburgh's playoff revenge is coming up
26:27
Speaker 1: next against Baltimore. They haven't played them yet this year.
26:30
Speaker 1: But yeah, this spot, to me, it pretty much does
26:35
Speaker 1: say bills Like this is one of the stronger opinions.
26:38
Speaker 1: If I was gonna add one to my car, it
26:40
Speaker 1: would be the bills. They're laying three here. You might
26:42
Speaker 1: be able to get three. It might have to be
26:44
Speaker 1: three and a half, seventy three percent of ticket seventy
26:46
Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on the bills. That's what
26:49
Speaker 1: I would do, all right. Vegas is at the Raiders Vegas.
26:54
Speaker 1: They fired Chip Kelly, so maybe their offense will be
26:57
Speaker 1: better as a result of that. They were terrible last
26:59
Speaker 1: week against Cleveland. Yeah, so there is all that. So
27:03
Speaker 1: they are in a spot where they probably want to
27:06
Speaker 1: save face. I mean, I know people are gonna talk about,
27:08
Speaker 1: oh no, they're tanking whatever, but tanking is not really
27:11
Speaker 1: a thing once you get out on the field, unless
27:13
Speaker 1: you're gambling against yourself and you really have like that incentive,
27:16
Speaker 1: like monetarily or whatever. These guys are still playing for pride.
27:20
Speaker 1: You don't go out. It's like, you know, you have
27:22
Speaker 1: a natural tendency to want to live, right, You have
27:24
Speaker 1: a natural instinct to want to live or to want
27:26
Speaker 1: to win in football, Like you don't want to just
27:29
Speaker 1: you're not gonna just roll over and like tank, Like
27:32
Speaker 1: it's just against your human instinct, you know what I mean.
27:35
Speaker 1: So tanking is BS. So I don't think the Raiders
27:37
Speaker 1: are gonna be doing that. I think they'll show up.
27:39
Speaker 1: I mean, they did lose to the Chargers earlier this
27:41
Speaker 1: year twenty to nine at home, which was a loss
27:44
Speaker 1: for me on the show because of course it was
27:47
Speaker 1: thought it was a bad spot for the Chargers. So yes,
27:50
Speaker 1: it is gonna be revenge, road revenge, road divisional revenge.
27:53
Speaker 1: That is a thing. A lot of times you do
27:56
Speaker 1: want to look that way in those second divisional matchups. However,
28:00
Speaker 1: I do think the Chargers are in a pretty positive
28:02
Speaker 1: spot here because they're coming out of a bye and
28:04
Speaker 1: they went into the buy in a really negative note
28:07
Speaker 1: losing to Jacksonville thirty five to six. So I think
28:10
Speaker 1: that buy is gonna be as helpful as possible. Justin
28:13
Speaker 1: Herbert eighty one yards in the game, I mean, that's
28:16
Speaker 1: just insane. When you know you're throwing the ball because
28:18
Speaker 1: you're losing by that much, How do you have eighty
28:20
Speaker 1: one yards. I have no clue, Like, I don't know
28:23
Speaker 1: what it is with the Chargers against Jacksonville, but now
28:26
Speaker 1: that the Chargers had that buy off of their ugliest
28:29
Speaker 1: loss in like years, probably well, probably their ugliest since
28:33
Speaker 1: since since the raid the Raiders did kill them in
28:37
Speaker 1: like in a fire coach spot, right if I remember correctly.
28:40
Speaker 1: I don't remember, but whatever, I think this is a
28:43
Speaker 1: positive buy situation for the Chargers because they went into
28:47
Speaker 1: the buy and the worst note possible. They can use
28:49
Speaker 1: that buy to fix some things the Chargers can. I
28:51
Speaker 1: think they'll show up for this one. I would probably
28:54
Speaker 1: lay the points with the Chargers. They are public, They're
28:57
Speaker 1: nine and a half, eighty eight percent of tickets, nine
29:00
Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on them. Their public looks
29:02
Speaker 1: like maybe more of the money is coming in on them.
29:05
Speaker 1: All right, it's best bets time, we're gonna do it.
29:12
Speaker 1: The primetime games are the best bets. Everybody's yelling me
29:16
Speaker 1: at this bet. I don't care. We're gonna take Washington
29:19
Speaker 1: plus six and a half. You might be able to
29:20
Speaker 1: get seven. Like, I don't think there's any rush in
29:23
Speaker 1: taking this number right now. I'm hoping it gets to seven.
29:26
Speaker 1: It looks like it's six with juice right now. I
29:28
Speaker 1: don't know if it we get to that key number seven.
29:30
Speaker 1: We're fading the Denver Broncos eighty one percent to take
29:33
Speaker 1: a sixty one percent of the cash on. The Broncos
29:36
Speaker 1: totals fairly lowed forty three and a half. So that's good.
29:39
Speaker 1: So I like taking points with the lowts total. I'm
29:42
Speaker 1: also gonna like taking points against the team that is
29:44
Speaker 1: mostly a defensive team, and that is the Broncos. Broncos
29:48
Speaker 1: are not really equipped to blow teams out, especially on
29:50
Speaker 1: the road. Broncos offense, say what you want to about them.
29:53
Speaker 1: Their offense is far below average, probably a bottom ten offense,
29:58
Speaker 1: not good. Their defense is very good, elite defense, and
30:02
Speaker 1: that's what they do. But that's not a recipe to
30:04
Speaker 1: cover by its touchdown on the road. Okay, And I
30:06
Speaker 1: don't think the Broncos are quite as good as their
30:09
Speaker 1: number their record looks. Now, we have a situation where
30:12
Speaker 1: you want to talk about buy situations. This is the
30:16
Speaker 1: poster child for this. I don't think I've ever seen
30:18
Speaker 1: anything as crazy as this actually, as far as the
30:21
Speaker 1: inverted buy setup that we have here, the Broncos are good.
30:24
Speaker 1: They're coming out of a buy and they went into
30:26
Speaker 1: the buy on an eight game win streak, and they
30:30
Speaker 1: concluded that win streak by beating the Kansas City Chiefs,
30:33
Speaker 1: which is like the biggest win they could possibly get,
30:36
Speaker 1: beating the team that's dominated this division for so long.
30:39
Speaker 1: Huge win for the Broncos, and that's how they go
30:41
Speaker 1: into a buye You know, I talk about this, the
30:43
Speaker 1: buy is a momentum stop or if you go into
30:45
Speaker 1: the buy in a good note, how could you have
30:47
Speaker 1: gone into the buy in a better note than that
30:49
Speaker 1: eight straight wins beating the Chiefs. No, I think that
30:54
Speaker 1: buy is going to be really bad. And now they
30:55
Speaker 1: have to go to the East Coast for one of
30:57
Speaker 1: these out of conference road games, which I always talk
31:00
Speaker 1: about it's the least it matters, the least on the schedule, man,
31:03
Speaker 1: so when it comes to tiebreakers and stuff, this game's
31:06
Speaker 1: not gonna matter very much. And by the way, that
31:08
Speaker 1: was even bigger that win for Denver over the Chiefs
31:12
Speaker 1: because Denver now has a two game lead two plus
31:17
Speaker 1: two or two plus against everybody else in their division.
31:21
Speaker 1: So Denver has all this padding in their division now too,
31:23
Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna make them a little bit
31:25
Speaker 1: complacent as well. They do have a divisional game next
31:28
Speaker 1: although I know it's the Raiders, but the Raiders did
31:30
Speaker 1: play them close in Mile High this game. To me,
31:34
Speaker 1: it does not look like a spot that is going
31:36
Speaker 1: to be anything resembling a focused spot for Denver Man.
31:39
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Washington. I know they're not good. I told
31:42
Speaker 1: you they wouldn't be that good this year. I told
31:44
Speaker 1: you they would go under their team total, and that's
31:47
Speaker 1: already guaranteed. They can't get over nine and have wins. Now.
31:50
Speaker 1: I know it's been a little bit bad for them.
31:53
Speaker 1: Jayde Daniels, he got hurt. I know, I don't think
31:56
Speaker 1: they were gonna go over their team total anyway. But
31:57
Speaker 1: look at this situation for Washington over their season win total.
32:01
Speaker 1: Excuse me, look at the situation for Washington here. They
32:05
Speaker 1: just went into a buy losing six games in a row.
32:08
Speaker 1: I mean again, you want to buy at the best
32:11
Speaker 1: time possible time. That's basically it. You go into the
32:14
Speaker 1: buy on six straight losses. The buye is gonna usually
32:18
Speaker 1: stop whatever momentum you have, and that's what you want here.
32:21
Speaker 1: It's gonna stop all that negative momentum. They can use
32:23
Speaker 1: that buy to fix some things. They get a primetime
32:26
Speaker 1: home game here, and again, I always talking like I
32:28
Speaker 1: keep talking about this. When a team is going nowhere
32:31
Speaker 1: this year, which is the case with Washington, one of
32:33
Speaker 1: the situations they will show up for is a primetime game,
32:36
Speaker 1: especially at home. So I think they're going to I
32:39
Speaker 1: know they don't have the better defense, but even so
32:44
Speaker 1: Denver is not a very good offensive team. Washington still
32:47
Speaker 1: actually has the better offense. I know Daniels is out,
32:50
Speaker 1: but Mariota he's not that bad man. He's been capable debatably,
32:54
Speaker 1: He's actually been better than Daniels this year, So I
32:57
Speaker 1: don't mind that. I think that's fine. I don't think
32:59
Speaker 1: there's really that much of a drop off with Mariota.
33:02
Speaker 1: You're getting a pretty good amount of points here. If
33:04
Speaker 1: you can get seven, that's even better. So that's what
33:07
Speaker 1: we're doing. I love this play. It's the best play
33:10
Speaker 1: of the week in my opinion. Washington plus the points
33:13
Speaker 1: that inverted by set up, plus the massive letdowns why
33:16
Speaker 1: the Denver is in that is tasty. Man. Oh and
33:19
Speaker 1: by the way, Denver, as far as their wins, how
33:22
Speaker 1: many teams are they blown out. Like, how many teams
33:24
Speaker 1: are they beaten by this margin? They did it to
33:27
Speaker 1: Tennessee at home, Cincinnati at home, and that was Cincinnati
33:29
Speaker 1: with browning and Tennessee. They didn't even cover against Tennessee,
33:33
Speaker 1: but they did win by eight. And then look at
33:36
Speaker 1: their other wins. They did beat Philadelphia on the road.
33:40
Speaker 1: I get that. Yeah, so they were an underdog in
33:42
Speaker 1: that game. That was a big win for them. Philly
33:44
Speaker 1: was kind of in a bad spot there. Then Denver
33:46
Speaker 1: only beat the Jets by two in London. Yeah, they
33:49
Speaker 1: blew out Dallas. That's you know, it seems like more
33:52
Speaker 1: of an outliar as far as this schedule that we know,
33:54
Speaker 1: Dallas is a just a horrendous defense, probably worse than Washington's.
33:59
Speaker 1: I know Washington's isn't good. But Denver only beat Houston
34:02
Speaker 1: by three, that was on the road, Vegas by three,
34:06
Speaker 1: and then Kansas City by three last week. Athough, Kansas
34:08
Speaker 1: City is really good. But still also if you look
34:11
Speaker 1: at just their road games, Denver lost the first two
34:14
Speaker 1: games on the road. They have not won any of
34:16
Speaker 1: their road games by more than four points, so they
34:18
Speaker 1: have not been capable of winning by a huge margin
34:22
Speaker 1: on the road, although I know all those road games
34:25
Speaker 1: were against good teams, I get it, Indianapolis, Chargers, Houston,
34:29
Speaker 1: and Philadelphia. So yeah, Washington's worse than all those teams,
34:33
Speaker 1: I get it. But again, this is mostly gonna be
34:36
Speaker 1: about the spot and yeah, just the style that Denver
34:40
Speaker 1: plays taking the points Washington. And then finally Monday Night
34:46
Speaker 1: and yeah, that one. The market red looks all over
34:48
Speaker 1: all Washington and that one, so I like that. And
34:50
Speaker 1: then Monday Night. I was gonna wear my Jackson Dart
34:54
Speaker 1: Jersey because he's coming back for the Giants, but instead,
34:57
Speaker 1: what we're gonna do is we're gonna fade him and
34:59
Speaker 1: we're gonna lay the points of the New England Patriots
35:02
Speaker 1: on Monday Night. And that's gonna be my other play.
35:04
Speaker 1: Seventy four percent to take a seventy seven percent of
35:06
Speaker 1: the cash on the Patriots, you can get the seven
35:08
Speaker 1: out there. I don't know if it's gonna get to
35:09
Speaker 1: six and a half. I kind of doubt it because
35:12
Speaker 1: it looks like they're gonna be a public side because
35:14
Speaker 1: obviously the public's not gonna be taking the Giants, and
35:17
Speaker 1: I know you don't really want to be on the
35:21
Speaker 1: public side on these primetime games usually, but it was
35:24
Speaker 1: correct last week, and I think it's correct here too,
35:26
Speaker 1: because there's a lot going on with this situation. Man.
35:29
Speaker 1: The Giants, they're coming off a huge performance. They like
35:33
Speaker 1: they had the Detroit Lions on the ropes. Man. Last week,
35:36
Speaker 1: the Giants could have won this game. They outgained Detroit
35:39
Speaker 1: in the game. They had Detroit completely on the ropes.
35:42
Speaker 1: They were winning the game by by ten in the
35:45
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and they blew the game and had to
35:47
Speaker 1: go to overtime, and they lost in overtime, absolutely brutal. Like,
35:52
Speaker 1: how do the Giants turn around off of that? And
35:54
Speaker 1: they go play and go playing out of conference game.
35:56
Speaker 1: I mean, I know it's the Patriots and the ten
35:59
Speaker 1: and two, but this is a huge game for the
36:01
Speaker 1: Giants and now they have to turn around after that.
36:03
Speaker 1: I don't like it at all. And by the way,
36:05
Speaker 1: the Giants did do a lot of weird, fluky things
36:08
Speaker 1: that just took the Lions by surprise, Like right away
36:11
Speaker 1: they had like a flea flicker for a touchdown to
36:14
Speaker 1: start the game, So they were doing all these gimmicky things. Man,
36:18
Speaker 1: So I think this game was kind of an outlier.
36:20
Speaker 1: And then later in the game. I know Winston caught
36:22
Speaker 1: its touchdown pass on another gimmick play and made a
36:26
Speaker 1: weird move to get into the end zone. So all
36:29
Speaker 1: very weird. And let's make it even worse for the Giants.
36:32
Speaker 1: Like I said, Jackson Dart is coming back, And why
36:35
Speaker 1: am I saying that's worse? I mean Dart I think
36:38
Speaker 1: he's better than Winston justin that he protects the football
36:41
Speaker 1: war We know Winston throws a ton of interceptions. Winston
36:44
Speaker 1: is a gunslinger. I think talent wise, they're both very talented.
36:47
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge talent drop off one
36:50
Speaker 1: way or the other. To be honest, there's a reason
36:52
Speaker 1: why Dart is the starter. Jackson's Jackson Darter Jackson start.
36:58
Speaker 1: There's a reason why he's there, man, why they drive
37:00
Speaker 1: after him. He also has a little bit more of
37:02
Speaker 1: that dimension where you can run the football. I think
37:04
Speaker 1: a little bit more than Winston. Kind at his age,
37:06
Speaker 1: Dart's still younger, He's got that extra dimension. I get
37:09
Speaker 1: all that Dart does protect the football more, but this
37:13
Speaker 1: is a reverse injured player spot man. Just like I said,
37:16
Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers coming back, Dart's coming back. The Giants
37:19
Speaker 1: have been playing some decent football without him, and look
37:23
Speaker 1: at what the Giants did with Winston and there they
37:24
Speaker 1: covered against Green Bay and almost beat them, and then
37:28
Speaker 1: they covered and almost beat Detroit. So having their starter
37:32
Speaker 1: come back again, they might like kind of get a
37:34
Speaker 1: little bit complacent because of it. He's gotta work his
37:37
Speaker 1: way back in. They gotta get the chemistry back and whatever.
37:40
Speaker 1: I don't like this at all. And then for New England,
37:43
Speaker 1: they're coming off a really, really lackluster game against the
37:45
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. It was an ugly game. They went to Cincinnati,
37:49
Speaker 1: they probably should have lost the game, and I think
37:51
Speaker 1: they know that. I think that's gonna scare them. And yes,
37:54
Speaker 1: I know New England does have Buffalo up next, but
37:57
Speaker 1: they do have a bye before that, so I don't
37:59
Speaker 1: really know that that's gonna be that much of a
38:01
Speaker 1: look ahead. There's gonna be a buy in between there,
38:03
Speaker 1: and they did already beat Buffalo once, although yes, that
38:06
Speaker 1: will be a huge game, but New England does have
38:08
Speaker 1: huge padding against them anyway, So but I expect New
38:11
Speaker 1: England to show up just because of that. I think
38:13
Speaker 1: seven is actually kind of a short number here, even
38:16
Speaker 1: though I don't think New England is really as good
38:18
Speaker 1: as their record looks. And really the knock on New
38:21
Speaker 1: England is really easy schedule. They've been beating all these
38:24
Speaker 1: bad teams. Yeah, but guess who else is a bad team? Yeah,
38:28
Speaker 1: the New York Giants. They're a bad team, man. And
38:31
Speaker 1: the Giants actually are really bad at stopping the run.
38:34
Speaker 1: And I know New England is more kind of more
38:37
Speaker 1: pass base, but New England they're a pretty balanced offense.
38:40
Speaker 1: They're gonna run the football in this game. Man. Meanwhile,
38:44
Speaker 1: I know New England doesn't have a great defense, but
38:46
Speaker 1: neither does the Giants. So neither do the Giants. I
38:49
Speaker 1: should say New England has the way better offense, and
38:52
Speaker 1: it's a better spot. That's the way that it is.
38:54
Speaker 1: That's it. Those are the bets. Washington plus the points.
38:58
Speaker 1: Try to wait, get the seventh on New England minus
39:01
Speaker 1: the points, both primetime games. I'll talk about it again
39:04
Speaker 1: on Monday. I'll be back tomorrow maybe if I am
39:07
Speaker 1: still live tomorrow morning. I am not happy. I don't
39:10
Speaker 1: even know what the board looks like tomorrow. I just
39:13
Speaker 1: hope there's not a lot of college basketball, at least
39:15
Speaker 1: there's not college football, because college football can eat it after.
39:19
Speaker 1: I had a great run in college football last year.
39:21
Speaker 1: This run in college football has been just atrocious. Learn
39:25
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39:27
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39:31
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39:37
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39:40
Speaker 1: slash learn it Toad. I don't know why you would
39:42
Speaker 1: ever throw me mind. I don't know why you would
39:43
Speaker 1: even listen to this show. Why are you doing any
39:45
Speaker 1: of this? What? Like, there's no reason to do it.
39:48
Speaker 1: I'm wrong about everything. I'm a loser. Listen to Loser
39:52
Speaker 1: Casts or just coming up soon. I'm on that show
39:54
Speaker 1: because I'm a fucking loser. So Loser Cast is coming
39:57
Speaker 1: up soon with me and Leyton and Tyler Yanke and
40:01
Speaker 1: two dudes who I've never heard of before. So we're
40:03
Speaker 1: really gonna have a lot of chemistry on that show.
40:05
Speaker 1: It's gonna be awesome. We we're just calling everybody losers
40:09
Speaker 1: or whatever, So go look for that. That'll be out soon.
40:12
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40:14
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40:17
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40:21
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Speaker 1: Spotify yuke feed there that I don't keep updated, and
40:27
Speaker 1: you can request songs that I will take forever to do.
40:30
Speaker 1: That's it peace for now. I appreciate it. Thanks for
40:34
Speaker 1: hanging out. I don't know why you would