Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 190 - 1/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 190 - 1/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 190 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday, the 1st week of the new year is coming to an
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end. We got a big weekend ahead here,
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guys. We got a lot to get to on
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today's podcast. I have a 5 pack of sweats for
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you today, all college. We got 2 college football bowl
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games where we have a lot of opt outs and big line moves.
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Do we go with the sharp move? Do we bet against the opt outs?
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Do we buy low on the dogs? I got a couple plays here for
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you in the college football bowl games, including an afternoon
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game and a nightcap game and then also college hoops. 3
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college basketball plays, including a big one and one of
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my favorite system matches of all time, which if you know what
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I'm talking about, you know what I'm talking about and then going
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into the weekend, I do have two bets for you that I made for
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tomorrow's games. There is a college football bowl
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game between Buffalo and liberty.
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I got to play on that and I got to play on one of the NFL games
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for tomorrow, which will be either Cleveland, Baltimore or
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Cincy Pittsburgh. Stay tuned for that.
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So 5 pack today, 2 plays for tomorrow.
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I just want to mention as well we'll do the Sunday live stream
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myself and James Santor, which of course is every Sunday
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throughout the season. But if you've tuned in #1 thank
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you. If you haven't, give it a shot.
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It's kind of fun. We do basically rhythm
1:46
breakdowns, talk about games. I look at the market moves, then
1:49
we look at the rhythm projections.
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So today are basically going into Sunday, 14 games overall.
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We got a lot of weird things going on, differing motivations,
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player incentives, who's going to play, who's going to sit.
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So I'm going to, you know, give it a little bit of time because
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I want some more clarity here. So I don't have any plays yet
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for Sunday, but I'm sure I will by Sunday kind of once we get
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some some insight into who's playing and who isn't.
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That's super important here going into the weekend.
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So hope that you can join us Sunday on Twitter.
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Live stream the Sunday rhythm sweats powered by rhythm and
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garage beer. So get grab a garage beer, get
2:25
drinking early, Join myself and James Santor 11:00 AM Eastern
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Time Stream live on Twitter. You can follow me at Josh under
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score insights and get right in. Now looking back to our last
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night guys, all I got to say is Rudy, Rudy, Rudy.
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That's right, the Irish getting it done.
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Sharp dog to fave line move. You love to see it.
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I didn't really expect to blow out, but man was that great to
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see Irish with a great winner there in the College Football
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Playoff on the money line. Also had a nice winner in
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college basketball where even though Ken Palm had them losing
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by one, we went with the betting market which really nailed it
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with UTEP. UTEP getting it done, which is
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good to see. Unfortunately, the Bruins lost 2
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to one to the lowly Rangers man. The Rangers did everything they
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could to give that game away. Bruins could not find the back
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of the net, which was which was frustrating.
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And then also the Bucks under man that was frustrating because
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got under 221 1/2. It actually crept up to 223 1/2
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even 224 because Damian Willard who wasn't expected to play,
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ended up playing and what happens it lands on 2/23.
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So there was a couple free throws late from Zyre Williams,
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which unfortunately went the final score from 2:21 to 2:23.
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So unfortunately lost that one. So overall 2 and 2 - 0.4 units.
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Let's see if we can get a winning day today as we steam
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into the weekend. So let's get right to it because
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you do have an afternoon sweat here in college football and I
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got to play on this game. So let's talk about a 4:00
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Eastern kick, early kick here. And 4:00 is that late afternoon
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is that early evening. Well, if you're in Massachusetts
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the the sun goes down to like 4:30 so hey, I guess it's early
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evening. But anyway this is the 4:00
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North Texas versus Texas State serve pro first respond first
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responder bowl be played at Gerald J Ford Stadium in Dallas,
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TX. Now North Texas comes in six and
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six just snapped A5 game losing skid by beating Temple 2417 in
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the regular season finale. But the main green did not cover
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as a 12 point Rd. favorite. On the other hand, Texas State
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7:00 and 5:00 on the year, they've won three of their last
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four and just took down South Alabama 4538 they covered as a 2
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1/2 point Rd. favorite. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, a massive line move toward
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Texas State. Texas State open this game as a
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7 1/2 neutral site favorite. And we've seen Texas State get
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all the way up to -14 some books even now going to -14 1/2.
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So it's been pretty just one sided huge steam on Texas State.
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If you look at the bet splits here, Texas State looks pretty
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good, only 54% of spread bets, but 74% of spread dollars at
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DraftKings. So a good, you know, basically
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the public split, but heavy money with that low bets, higher
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dollar split in favor of Texas State.
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And then also if you look at circa Texas State, 60% of spread
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bets, 65% of spread dollars. So kind of both pro and Joe on
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Texas State out in Vegas. Now, anytime you see a huge move
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like this, obviously opt outs, you know, guys who are
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transferring and not playing, that's usually almost always the
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reason why. And This is why we've seen this
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line really get steamed up toward Texas State because
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Texas, North Texas. And again, this is a weird
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handicap, North Texas, Texas State.
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So make sure you pick the right Texas depending on who you like.
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But anyway, North Texas is the team with a ton of opt outs.
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The mean Green. They won't have their starting
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quarterback, their top wide receiver, their number one tight
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end and a bunch of offensive lineman.
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They're going to start a true freshman.
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Drew Mestemaker exected to start under center.
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Meanwhile, Texas State, they got a lot of guys who are playing
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and they're top quarterback Jordan McLeod, he had a really
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good year through for almost 3000 yards, 29 touchdowns.
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He is expected to start and I was reading that he may come out
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at some point and they might put in second-half a younger
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quarterback. But basically you have North
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Texas with everybody out, Texas State pretty much playing
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everybody, which is why we've seen this line move toward Texas
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State. So what am I going to do with
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this one, guys? I'm laying it with Texas State.
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Believe it or not, I got -13 1/2 at -120 at FanDuel Shop round.
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Now your best number is 14, but you probably want to jump on
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that as soon as you can because on the one hand, the signs
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getting worse. It's up to 14 1/2 at some shop.
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So find that book that's still got the 14.
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But even if it's 14 1/2, this is hopefully a blowout for Texas
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State. And I'm kicking myself yesterday
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because even though we had a great one with the Irish, I
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should have played Ole Miss. And if you notice Ole Miss open
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-14 they got all the way up to -18 1/2, so huge steam, then up
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winning by 32. So normally again, all things
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being equal, the other teams playing their guys, I don't want
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to lay a, you know, an 18 1/2 when a game opens at 14.
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But these bowl games are weird. And typically when you see big
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steam with no let up, you know, usually that means other teams
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not playing their guys and it's it could be a blowout.
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So that's what I'm hoping for. So I'm laying it with Texas
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State guys again, I got -13 1/2 -, 115.
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Another reason why, again, if you'd like to follow these plays
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on Juice Reel, I tweet them out each day.
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We can follow them for 499 a week.
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Again, that's $5. It's not $499 a week like some
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touts out there like Vegas, Dave, It's literally $4.99.
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So think of that as supporting the pod, a tip jar, you know,
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again, pods free. Do I give you $5 worth of
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insights each week? I would like to think that I do,
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but you'll get those plays earlier.
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That's a benefit because I put this out at -13 1/2 earlier
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today. So 13 1/2 will be great.
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Don't look. Doesn't look like that's
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available anymore. Again, 14 is probably your best
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number, but even 14 1/2, you're looking for the action.
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I'm laying it with Texas State. Let's let's win this thing in a
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blowout. So let's go Texas State, late
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night game, Minnesota and Virginia Tech.
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This is the Dukes Mayo Bowl. It'll be played at Bank of
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America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, home of the Carolina
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Panthers. And get ready, whoever wins
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going to get a big bowl of mayonnaise on their head.
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Disgusting. I like late Mayo.
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Not a not a huge Mayo guy anyway.
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Minnesota 7:00 and 5:00 on the year.
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They did just snap A2 game losing skid.
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They beat Wisconsin 24 to 7 in the regular season finale,
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easily covering as a 2 point Rd. favorite.
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Meanwhile Vatek 6 and six on the year just ended a three-game
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skid similarly with a 37 to 17 win which was over Virginia.
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They easily covered as a four and a half point home favorite.
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So similar to this big line move on Texas State, big line move
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here on Minnesota, and I'm do the same thing.
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I'm laying it with Minnesota guys, this game open Gophers
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around a four and a half point neutral site favorite.
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We've seen huge steam and adjustment in favor of
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Minnesota. They were -4 1/2.
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Now they're -9 1/2 -, 10. So big move in their favor.
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Good bets. Foot DraftKings 57% of spread
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bets, but 83% of spread dollars, Circa 81% of spread bets, 89% of
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spread dollars. So basically DraftKings has that
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slight majority. Basically 5050, you know,
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relatively undecided public slightly into Minnesota, but
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heavy money out in Vegas with circa again, 8 out of 10 bets, 9
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out of $10 tells me basically pro and Joe on Minnesota out in
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Vegas now big reason for the line move.
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Of course, opt outs, transfers, Virginia Tech, they're expected
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to be without 14 starters. Kyron drones, their top
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quarterback. He's expected to be out a bunch
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of offensive lineman, a bunch of defensive players.
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On the other hand, Minnesota expected to pretty much play
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everyone. And when you're handicapping,
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you know, weird games like this, bowl games or motivations can be
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different. Sometimes a quote just kind of
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jumps up and slaps you in the face.
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And I was reading the breakdown of this game and I read a quote
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by the starting running back from Minnesota, His name is
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Darius Taylor. He's had a really good year.
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He's rushed for almost 900 yards and 9 touchdowns, bunch of
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catches as well. But this is what he said about
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the bowl game and I think this is important.
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He said, quote, at Minnesota, we take pride in bowl games.
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We work so hard during the season.
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So we view it as a privilege to be here.
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We take winning these bowl games very seriously as a team.
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So what does that mean? You know, is that him just
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saying it or is that the coach, you know, telling that to all
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the players? It's, you know, kind of siphoned
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down to the players. To me, that's important.
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Your star running back is not sitting out transferring, going
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to the NFL draft. Maybe he is.
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I don't know about this particular player, but he's
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playing in this game and he's telling you that they're going
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to take this game seriously. So I like this play toward
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Minnesota. I'm laying it with the Minnesota
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Gophers here, guys. I got -9 1/2 at -120 at FanDuel.
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There are some -9 1/2's out there.
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A lot of books are at -10 Why is that important?
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Again, 3710, these are key numbers.
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Minnesota wins by 10. You want to cover this number
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laying 9 1/2 instead of the 10. So got me thinking yesterday, I
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was so excited to play Notre Dame.
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I didn't really look at Duke, Ole Miss that much, but I should
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have played Ole Miss. And that was kind of a teachable
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moment for me that, hey, when you get to these bowl games, you
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see a huge line move on a favorite, especially A-Team
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that's playing and is going to try hard versus dog that
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probably doesn't care or is resting a lot of guys.
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Let's hope that today Texas State and Minnesota act just
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like Ole Miss last night. So let's run up the score.
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Let's score a bunch of points. Let's cover these numbers.
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I'm playing Minnesota -9 1/2 and Texas State, again, I got -13
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1/2 right now. Your best number is -14 Now over
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to some college hoops. Let's go to my favorite game of
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the night. Again, when I say favorite game
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doesn't mean you're getting 5 units on it.
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It's betting to risk, not betting to win, risking one unit
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every play regardless of your confidence level.
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But I like this one. It's Michigan State and Ohio
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State, so it's your most heavily game of the of the night by far.
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And it's got one of my favorite system matches of all time.
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So that system matches unranked home favorite versus ranked
12:01
opponent. So going into it, Michigan
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State, 18th in the country, 11:00 and 2:00 on the year.
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On the other hand, Ohio State 9:00 and 4:00.
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Not a bad record, but they're unranked.
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So who should be favored in this game?
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It should be Michigan State, right?
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They're ranked better record. Ohio State worst record
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unranked. No, no, no, no, no.
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Ohio State is favored in this one.
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Not only is Ohio State favored, but the line move toward Ohio
12:24
State. The Buckeyes open this game
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around A2 point favorite at home.
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Now they're up to -2 1/2 and some books are even juiced up
12:32
like it may get to 3. So we have the unranked home
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favorite ranked opponent, which by the way, is on my, again, one
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of my favorite system matches of all time.
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And you also have good bet splits in favor of Ohio State at
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DraftKings, which is a good barometer for the public.
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Publix down the middle 5050 in terms of tickets.
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But 70% of spread dollars are on Ohio State.
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Now Circa has a great money line split, only 50% bets, but over
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90% dollars. And the money line at DraftKings
13:00
41% bets, 57% dollars. So the spread splits look good
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at DraftKings on Ohio State. But I really like those money
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line splits. And again, way in 2 1/2, I'm
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money lining. I don't want Ohio State to win
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by one or two and I lose my 2 1/2.
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Yes, you'll save the juice and maybe Ohio State wins by three
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or more. And you'll say why didn't I
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spread instead of money line. But to me, better to be safe
13:23
than sorry. I money lined Ohio State.
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Let's go Buckeyes. I got them at -142 at FanDuel.
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Couple of of advantages here. Effective field goal percentage,
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16th in the country for Ohio State versus 114th for Michigan
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State. So better offense, better
13:41
three-point shooting, vastly better three-point shooting.
13:43
13th in the country versus 300 and 25th offensive efficiency,
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24th versus 35th. Ohio State, by the way, is 7 and
13:52
one at home. And if you look at both Ken Palm
13:56
as well as our friends of Rhythm, they both have Ohio
14:01
State winning this game. Now.
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Ken Palm has Ohio State winning by three.
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Rhythm has the Ohio State Buckeyes -2 so both have them
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winning two or three. That's important because of
14:10
lands 2 again, you lose your 2 1/2.
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So I'm money lined Ohio State and let me just give you some
14:15
updates here. Unranked home favors ranked
14:18
opponent ATS since 2022 is 65 and 47 ATS 58% but winning the
14:25
game straight up. Unranked home favors ranked
14:28
opponent that is 62% straight up since 2022.
14:33
So again, Ohio State, why are they favored?
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Technically, Michigan State is the better team.
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We got the market, We got a good system match.
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We got rhythm and juice Real. I'm going Buckeyes, baby.
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Buckeyes got us a win in college football the other day.
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Let's see if they can get us a win in college hoops tonight.
14:50
I am on Ohio State -142 on the money line.
14:54
Another game for you. Let's look at another 8:00 game
14:57
tonight, Georgetown hosting Xavier 8:00 on CBS Sports
15:01
Network. So going into this one, let me
15:05
just pull up the breakdown for this game.
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We have Georgetown, the Hoyas having a really good year.
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They're 11 and two. They've won four straight.
15:13
Meanwhile, Xavier nine and five, they just snapped A3 game skid.
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They crushed Seton Hall 94 to 72.
15:19
What are we seeing across the market here?
15:21
Well, kind of sneaky sharp liability toward Georgetown.
15:25
I like Georgetown on the money line to win this game at home.
15:28
Now Georgetown open this game around as low as a -, 1 or one
15:32
point home favorite. Now they're up to -1 1/2 and
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some shops we are even now creeping up to -2 So it's been
15:39
pretty consistent one way movement in favor of Georgetown.
15:43
Now they're pretty good bet splits out at Circa in Vegas,
15:46
71% bets, but 86% dollars are on Georgetown here.
15:51
So I like that, you know, the wise guys out in Vegas are kind
15:54
of leaning pretty hard here on on Georgetown, which kind of
15:58
jives with the the juice movement and liability.
16:01
Now Ken Palm as Georgetown winning by 1.
16:03
Rhythm has Georgetown. I have two systems with the
16:06
hoyas -1.5 and -1.9. So you guys know where I'm going
16:10
with this. There's a money line play and
16:12
it's relatively cheap money line.
16:13
I got Georgetown at -130 I believe that was either Caesar's
16:17
or ESPN bet. And then also some advantages
16:21
here for Georgetown. One is offensive rebound
16:24
percentage. I like it when a team can grab a
16:26
lot of offensive boards because one, you get more possessions,
16:29
more opportunities for put backs and and scoring, but it's also
16:32
kind of demoralizing when you get beat on the offensive glass.
16:35
They rank 40, sorry, 39th in the country and offensive rebound
16:39
percentage. Xavier ranks 219.
16:42
So hopefully a big advantage on the boards.
16:44
Defensive efficiency, better defensive team is Georgetown
16:48
45th in the country versus 77th for Xavier and then also home
16:53
Rd. Hopefully this really is is
16:55
going to lead us to victory tonight because Georgetown has
16:57
been great at home. They are 9 and one at home this
17:01
year, Xavier O and three on the road.
17:04
So let's hope that that trend continues.
17:06
Also a little bit of rest. First tired.
17:08
We have Georgetown last playing on December 28th.
17:12
Georgetown, their opponent Xavier last played on the 31st.
17:16
So that is a you know what three day rest advantage.
17:18
So we have a little bit of movement liability.
17:21
We got both Rhythm and Ken Palm St.
17:23
Georgetown's going to win the game.
17:25
Better off, better rebounding, better defense, home Rd. splits,
17:28
rest, advantage. I'm going Hoyas, let's do it for
17:31
old school Patrick Ewing. I got Georgetown on the money
17:34
line to win the damn game -130 last bet in college hoops for
17:40
you. And again, I could have squeezed
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out a couple more, decided to, you know, try to limit my plays.
17:45
But let's look at Wichita State and Temple Now.
17:49
This is a bit of an early game. This is a 7:00 game.
17:52
So this game is going to be on ESPN 2 if you want to sweat it.
17:56
But going into it, the Wichita State 10 and three, we've had a
17:59
good year. 1, two straight Temple, by the way, 8:00 and
18:03
5:00. They have won what for their
18:06
last five S, All teams looking pretty good.
18:08
But you would think the 10 and three team would be favored
18:11
right over the eight and five team.
18:13
Nope. We got Temple favored at home
18:15
and the line is moved a little bit toward Temple now.
18:17
Some books open Temple around to pick them or very short -1 now
18:22
they're up to -1 1/2. So good move in favor of Temple.
18:26
I love the bet splits in favor of Temple at Circa on the
18:28
spread, 75% bets over 90% dollars.
18:33
So wise guys in Vegas really liking Temple now.
18:36
DraftKings on the money line, only 50% bets, but 60% dollars.
18:42
Ken Palm has Temple winning by one.
18:44
Rhythm has temple -1.1, so pretty much in unison there.
18:48
Once again, offensive rebound percentage advantage for Temple.
18:51
They're 179th in the country versus 291 for Wichita State.
18:56
They shoot the three a little bit better.
18:58
They ranked 241 in the country versus 284 for Wichita State.
19:02
At Wichita State, they're only playing their third Rd. game.
19:05
They're one and one overall, but Temple's been good at home.
19:08
They're five and O at home, and this game will be played at home
19:11
in Philly. And I did notice one of their
19:13
best players is Jamal Mashburn, Junior.
19:15
I didn't realize that he transferred, but I remember him
19:18
last year on New Mexico. He's really good.
19:20
You know, you're getting old when you have seen the father of
19:22
some of these players play. But again, Joel Mashburn back in
19:24
the day, great player. But yeah, I like that you got
19:27
him as a good score. Hopefully playing well at home
19:30
for Temple. And once again, am I laying a 1
19:33
1/2? Nope.
19:33
Going money line here. Kind of a cheap money line.
19:36
I got Temple on the money line at -120 So out of these three
19:41
money lines, can we get two of them to win Temple, Georgetown,
19:44
and Ohio State? Now, let's look toward the slate
19:48
for tomorrow because we got some afternoon and actually very
19:51
early action here in college football as well as a late game
19:54
in the NFL for you. So let's talk Buffalo and
19:57
Liberty. Now, let me pull up my breakdown
20:00
here for this game. This is again early game, 11:00
20:03
AM Eastern Time. And this one is on ESPN 2.
20:07
We have Buffalo coming in eight and four.
20:09
They've won four straight, Liberty 8 and three.
20:12
They just had their three-game winning streak and they lost to
20:15
Sam Houston 20 to 18 in their regular season finale.
20:19
So what have we seen across the market here?
20:21
Well, dog to fave line move. Let's go Buffalo this game open
20:25
with Liberty listed around a 2 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
20:29
This line is now flipped to Buffalo -2 1/2 - 3.
20:33
So dog to fave line move again, not quite as drastic, but
20:37
similar to what we saw yesterday with the Irish going dog to fave
20:41
Buffalo though, really good bet split at DraftKings on the
20:44
spread. 66% bets, 79% dollars. On the money line, which is
20:50
where I'm going here, 59% bets, 81% dollars.
20:54
Now if you get the 2 1/2, you know, save some juice, win by
20:56
three or more. I money line Buffalo.
20:59
I got them at -144 at FanDuel and once again, big line move in
21:04
a bowl game, transfers, opt outs.
21:06
If you look at Buffalo, they are fully loaded.
21:10
Again, everybody's playing. They're motivated, They're
21:12
trying to win this game. Liberty complete opposite.
21:16
Their quarterback Kaden Slovis is out.
21:18
They have multiple offensive lineman who are out there.
21:20
Top running back Quinton Cooley is out.
21:23
Again, a lot of guys missing for this game.
21:25
I did notice Rhythm has Buffalo predicted -4.9, which is nice,
21:31
telling us that hey, Buffalo hopefully can win this game and
21:34
should win this game can and should are different from
21:37
actually doing it. But of course, again, if I'm
21:39
money lining A-Team at -2 and F -, 3, I like the fact that
21:43
Rhythm is projecting closer to A5 point game.
21:46
So again, locked and loaded with Buffalo.
21:49
Liberty's got a bunch of guys out.
21:51
Good bet splits dog to fave. I played Buffalo to win the damn
21:55
game. Let's go Bulls at -144 now one
21:59
play for you in the NFL. We have two NFL games for
22:02
tomorrow. Huge line move on Baltimore
22:05
again, I don't hate laying 20 points.
22:06
Believe it or not, Bailey Zappy is going to start for Cleveland.
22:09
Baltimore open minus like -16 they're all the way up to 19 and
22:12
F20. I didn't play it though, but I
22:14
did play since E Pittsburgh. Now this is a big game for a
22:18
couple different reasons. It's huge for Cincinnati.
22:21
Cincinnati is 1/4 straight on the year.
22:24
They're 8:00 and 8:00 and they need to first.
22:26
They can still make the playoffs if they win this game.
22:29
And then I believe they need both Miami and Denver to lose
22:31
tomorrow. Now, if you look at Miami, they
22:35
might lose to to The Jets. We've seen that line go toward
22:37
The Jets. And I believe Tyler Huntley's
22:39
starting. Denver's going to be a tougher
22:41
hill to climb because they're playing KC and Denver's favored
22:44
by 10 1/2 because KC is resting all their guys.
22:47
But you can't go into it saying, hey, we're probably not going to
22:50
make it. Denver's probably going to win
22:51
there for who? Who cares?
22:52
No, Bengals are doing everything they can to win this game.
22:56
On the other hand, you look at Pittsburgh, you know they're
22:59
they've made the post season, they've already punched their
23:01
ticket as a wild card. Obviously seating they can
23:04
benefit with a win a little bit, but I would really put the
23:07
motivational edge in favor of the Bengals over the Steelers
23:09
here. Now in terms of line movement,
23:12
it's kind of been all over the place.
23:14
One point you had this line open around 2.
23:17
It got down to one point to like as low as I want to say 1 1/2.
23:20
Now it's back up to 2 1/2. It was at one point creeping up
23:24
to three. What I noticed is that you're
23:27
pretty much still hanging since he favored on the road in this
23:30
game and normally guys, you know, I am not a road favorite
23:34
getting a majority of bets. You are getting upwards of 70%
23:37
of bets in dollars on Cincy here.
23:39
So you know, I would love to go contrarian take Pittsburgh.
23:42
You could even tease Pittsburgh up 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2.
23:46
But this has been such a weird year and I'm asking myself why
23:50
aren't I having a very good NFL that year, this year?
23:52
And I was actually talking about this to my father-in-law, who he
23:56
always asks, asked about betting.
23:57
How's it going? He's a former Marine.
24:00
He is a really great guy, but we sweat a bunch of games together.
24:03
When I was in San Diego, he's like, oh, you know, how's how's
24:06
the season going? I'm like, you know, college has
24:08
been pretty good, but NF LS been bad.
24:09
And I'm and he's like, oh, why? I said, well, just dogs aren't
24:13
winning. They're not covering.
24:14
And there was a great article from David Purdum recently who
24:17
wrote about it on ESPN. But basically, I'm going to
24:21
butcher this, but it's it's pretty much spot on.
24:23
This is like the best year for favorites, I want to say in like
24:26
30 years, something absurd. Not only do the favorites win,
24:30
but they're covering. So I want to say they're
24:32
straight up like 63 and 15 over the last few weeks here.
24:37
So you do have kind of that favorite trend going on right
24:39
now. And one of the best favorite
24:41
trends has been Rd. favorite straight up, Rd. favorite
24:44
straight up this year, 76 and 2774 percent, 12% ROI.
24:50
I also have a system here. Joe Burrow, when he's favored by
24:53
6 points or less, he's 20 and 9 ATS in his career, 69%.
24:58
He's six and two ATS this year. And also you have since he of
25:01
course, the motivation they got to win this game.
25:04
They've won four straight. Pittsburgh has lost three
25:06
straight. Now, normally I would like to
25:07
buy low on that dog who's struggling, but I'm also looking
25:11
at offensive production here. Joe Burrow is playing lights
25:15
out. He probably should be MVP if his
25:16
team had a better record. If you look at his stats, just
25:19
touchdowns, completion percentage, it's absurd.
25:22
The last three games, Joe Burrow in his offense, 30 points, 3037
25:27
points and 24 points. The last three for Russell
25:30
Wilson, 10 points, 17 points, 13 points.
25:34
So really, again, will Pittsburgh be able to score
25:37
enough to win and cover this game?
25:39
That's the question. We have rhythm, which I really
25:42
love. Rhythm has since he -2.8 and
25:45
-6.6 and this is a revenge place since he lost to Pittsburgh 44
25:51
to 38 back in early December. So you know, part of me says why
25:56
would I ever take a road favorite again?
25:58
Getting 70% of bats. It's really not who I am.
26:01
But the other part of me is how many times can I bang my head
26:03
against the wall taking these dogs this year that just won't
26:06
bark. So hopefully starting next year
26:09
we get back to dogs barking. Maybe in the post season we
26:12
start to get dogs barking again. But for all intents and purposes
26:15
it has been a ridiculous chalk here that really hasn't been any
26:18
let up. If anything, the favorites have
26:20
done better each week going late into the season.
26:24
So since he's still favored, I got a lot of good system matches
26:27
here. Guys.
26:28
I'm going Bengals and a game. They got to have motivational
26:32
edge here. Hopefully I got Bengals to win
26:34
this game. I bet them at -130 on the money
26:37
line at ESPN bet. So that about does it for
26:41
episode 190 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod, powered
26:45
by rhythm, of course. And this is the part of the pod
26:47
where we wrap things up. And I first start by saying
26:49
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
26:51
out of your busy lives to spend 30 minutes with me talking sharp
26:55
contrarian plays, talking betting breakdowns.
26:57
It means a ton. And also, if you enjoy the pod,
27:01
could you do me a favor? Could you say thank you to me by
27:03
doing one thing very quick, very easy.
27:06
It'll take 3 seconds, maybe 2 seconds, maybe one second.
27:09
Can you give this podcast a five star review?
27:12
Just go to Spotify or iTunes, click rate and review, give it
27:15
five stars. That would mean a lot to me.
27:16
Help us to continue to grow the pod.
27:18
Of course, if you want to recommend it to a friend or
27:20
click the follow button, that would also be awesome.
27:24
Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
27:28
sharp contrarian betting, how to read the market, how to
27:30
interpret bet splits and line moves and percentages and system
27:33
matches and flat betting. All that is available in written
27:37
form in a book, and the book is called the Everything Guide to
27:41
Sports betting. I wrote it, I should know the
27:43
title, I wrote it, but it's basically the blueprint, the
27:46
Bible of data-driven contrarian betting.
27:48
If you want to learn more about it or sport the pod or let me
27:52
know you appreciate the hard work or give it to a buddy or
27:54
friend or you know that colleague of yours, your cousin
27:57
who always parlays everything and send them right to the
28:00
bankroll management chapter. If you want to pick up a copy,
28:03
it's less than 20 bucks, You can just go to Amazon.com and type
28:06
in the everything guide to sports betting.
28:08
And it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
28:10
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
28:12
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
28:15
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
28:18
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
28:21
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
28:23
So grab one, bring it to the book, I'll buy you a beer and
28:26
we'll sweat some games together. Or a ginger ale.
28:27
If you don't drink, that's fine too.
28:29
Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice
28:33
Reel or Rhythm yet? 2 great sports betting apps to
28:35
help me win. I think they're going to help
28:37
you win. So rhythm, of course, great for
28:39
their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
28:42
player props. I want to give Rhythm some
28:44
props, pun intended, because remember yesterday's Notre Dame
28:46
game, they had a model that had Notre Dame -4.4 What happened?
28:51
Notre Dame rolled in that game, which was great to see.
28:53
You can get those predictions for basically every game and all
28:58
the major sports. I know they're adding hockey and
29:00
baseball, hopefully for next year, but give it a shot.
29:04
Player props game models, you can get that rhythm and also
29:08
juice reel where all the ASG pod best bets are located where you
29:12
can get great insights into arbitrage plays sharp mush
29:15
indicators, real actual dollar breakdowns for people have
29:19
synced up their apps. So make sure you sync your apps
29:21
up. It makes it really easy and get
29:22
that running report card and of course you also get great shop
29:27
for the best line futures plays. If you want to play a team to
29:30
win the Super Bowl or a guy to win an award, Juice reel does a
29:32
really good job of immediately giving you the best number,
29:35
whichever books providing that instead of having to search for
29:38
it and look it up. So go to the App Store, download
29:40
rhythm, download Juice reel 2 great apps.
29:43
I love them. You're going to love them too.
29:45
So that about does it another pod here in the books on a big
29:48
Friday. As always, I'm leave you with a
29:50
couple things. One, whether I see you at the
29:52
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
29:55
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
29:57
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
30:00
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods and
30:03
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
30:05
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
30:08
number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
30:10
South Point. Or Sweat and Sharp can train
30:12
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
30:14
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, whatever it's going to
30:17
be, you're going to show me a Rudy, Rudy Rudy Irish baby dog
30:23
to fave line movie. You love to see it.
30:25
Show me a UTEP ticket and we'll we'll sweat some games together
30:28
all night long. That about does it for today's
30:31
pod. Big weekend ahead here guys.
30:32
As always, reminder, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
30:36
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
30:38
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:41
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
30:43
Nothing's a locker guarantee. Betting is difficult if you
30:46
haven't realized that yet. We got to overcome really sharp
30:48
lines the odds makers set for us.
30:51
We got to overcome the juice, you know, we got a we ought to
30:54
avoid bad beats like landmines, but again, we can win long term
30:59
if we stick to the model in the blueprint.
31:01
Don't get too high or too low against the public with the
31:04
house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
31:07
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
31:11
So have a great weekend everybody.
31:12
Enjoy your Friday night. And of course, I hope to see you
31:16
on Sunday for the Rhythm live stream on Twitter, 11:00 AM
31:20
Eastern Time between now and Sunday.
31:22
Look out for my sharp report. You can always find it.
31:24
And give me a follow on Twitter at Josh under score insights for
31:27
both Saturday and Sunday. But good luck everybody.
31:30
I'll see you back on Monday for episode 191 of the All Systems
31:34
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:37
Have a great weekend everybody and good luck.