Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 173 - 12/2/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 173 - 12/2/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 173 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday, a new week begins, a new month begins as we flip
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the page from November to December, final month of the
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year. Hope everyone had a great
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Thanksgiving. It's been a while since I last
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was able to host a pod and and breakdown some sharp games with
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you guys. But now we turn the page to
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December. We got bowl games coming up,
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holiday season. I don't know if anyone's one of
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those, you know, crazy people gets your Christmas tree super
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early. But if we're getting to that
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point of the year as well, and hopefully we can end the year
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2024 on a hot note before we bring in the new year of 2025.
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But between now and then, we got a lot of games to talk about.
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We got a lot of bets hopefully to cash in the month of
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December. Now looking toward today, guys,
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I got a three pack of sweats for you.
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So you guys know the drill. 3 plays, let's try to get two of
1:19
them, go 2 and one eke out a winning day.
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It's kind of a smaller than usual slate.
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Could have maybe added a better 2, but didn't want to force it.
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But I have two plays on Monday Night Football.
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We got the Cleveland Browns and we have the Denver Broncos.
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I got to play on the side as well as a player prop and then I
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got one bet in college basketball.
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It is a added game, extra game, sharp obscure line move, which
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hopefully will come through for us tonight.
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So a three pack. Let's try to get two out of
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three now. I buried the lead, but it's been
1:46
a while. Haven't haven't had a pod since
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Thanksgiving Eve. And I do apologize because I
1:50
think I told you guys I would do a pod on Friday but didn't put
1:53
one out. I was back home with the family
1:55
and we actually went on a hike up the woods and couldn't
1:58
really, you know, tell everybody, hey, I got to go to a
2:00
podcast like, hey, it's the day after Thanksgiving, you know,
2:03
it'll be all right. So I do apologize.
2:05
Trend, who was looking forward or toward a pod on Friday.
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But anyway, since we last talked, we've been pretty good
2:11
here, guys, back on Wednesday, if you remember, four and oh,
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bust out the brooms plus 2.67 units.
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That was the night where he went three and O in college hoops
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with Michigan getting it done, the unranked versus ranked
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Richmond and Loyola. Miramount also had the Wild in
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the NHL Thursday as we were, as I was mentioning here and I kind
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of alluded to maybe it was the good mojo from the gambling
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gods, but me and my dad sweat Miami Green Bay under 47 1/2 and
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it looked dicey midway through the third quarter.
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My dad said, oh, I told him to play before the game started so
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he was rooting with me but he said oh, doesn't look good Josh.
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Luckily the gambling God smiled upon us landed on 47 so that was
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great to cash. I did add the Cowboys on the
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money line. I don't know if anyone played
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that one on Thursday. I do want to mention that of
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course, moving forward, all the all systems go best bets are
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located on Juice Reel. So you can just go to the social
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tab, go to find juicers and search at just search ASG under
3:08
score podcast or I'm putting that link in all the podcast
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moving forward. I'm tweeting about it each day.
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But if there are any additional plays, you can always find them
3:16
on the ASG Pod page on the Juice Trail app.
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Friday one and one ECU lost the Navy.
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I like ECU in that spot. They just didn't score at all.
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San Jose State did come through, so went one and one.
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Saturday, 1:00 and 2:00, we got Fresno State covering kicking a
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field goal late to lose by 7 1/2 or to lose by 7 and cover the
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seven and a half. K State, though, and Texas A&M
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in particular, like A&M, got a 5 1/2 close to four and a half and
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they had a goal line opportunity to score and backdoor cover four
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chances. Brick Wall couldn't score.
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So A&M kind of a pathetic performance, but a good Sunday.
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Yesterday, 3 and 1 + 1.55 units had the Jaguars, they were late
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addition to me. They kept getting steamed and I
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said, hey, I got to play this one.
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Shout out to Mac Jones for covering that number late.
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They're down 23 to 6 scored two touchdowns, 2 point conversion
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covered that number. Seattle money line got nervous
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because that one went away from us a little bit late, but we
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stayed with our original bet dance with the one who brung
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you. Seattle came through in a
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comeback victory and then Carolina plus six thought they'd
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win that one outright. Then I thought they wouldn't
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cover. Luckily, they lose by three and
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OT we cover the number. The only bet the lost was
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Tennessee. Remind me to never bet the
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Titans again. I feel like I'm like oh and five
4:28
betting the Titans this year. So what are you going to do?
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But either way, guys, we're still cashing some tickets here,
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so that is a good sign as we steam into Monday Night Football
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O. As I mentioned, 2 lays one Night
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Football, 1 lay in college hoops and then we'll get out of here.
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But with that being said, let's go right to the final game of
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Week 13. Can you believe we're almost at
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Week 14 now And boys, the season flying by, but Cleveland Browns,
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Denver Broncos, I'll give you the breakdown.
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I'll give you my play on the side player prop and then talk a
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little bit about the total, but kind of a tough angle or tough,
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tough total, tough nut to crack it, whatever, you know, I don't
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know whatever analogy you want to use there.
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I don't want to play this total, but I do want to play the side
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and a prop. So setting the stage here 8:15
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tonight, ESPN. The Browns come in three and
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eight. Remember they just snapped A2
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game losing skid, winning 24 to 19 over the Steelers on Thursday
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Night Football last week or a while ago at this point.
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They went out right as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
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Remember they cover that number for us.
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But brutal bad beat on the under we played.
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I remember that one. But the Broncos seven and five.
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They've had a Goodyear with bring in Bo Knicks looks like
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he's legit. Sean Payton good coach as well.
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But they're seven and five. They've won two straight.
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Just took down the Raiders 29 to 19, covering as a six point Rd.
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favorite. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this line's kind of been
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all over the place. The early look headline was
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Broncos as high as -7 1/2 at home.
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Then obviously when Cleveland had the big win over the
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Steelers, we saw this line get all the way down adjustment or
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adjusted downward to Denver -5 1/2.
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Then when it bottomed out at -5 1/2, we started to see it tick
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back up. So now we're seeing the Broncos
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on game day back up to -6 -, 6 1/2.
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So it fell a lot. It came back up.
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You know, you're somewhat close to where that look headline was.
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Now, even though the the number has kind of, you know, jockeyed
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back and forth, One thing that hasn't changed is the public's
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perception of this game. Public is all over the Broncos.
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I get it. Cleveland, bad record.
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Denver looks good. Denver's at home again, All the
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angles here would say Denver's a play, right?
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Well, Denver is getting 70% of spread bets at DraftKings, 72%
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of bets at Circa. So what the public book
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DraftKings, the sharp book Circa big majority tickets here going
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Denver. So right off the bat, first
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thing I noticed is contrarian opportunity.
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I love taking dogs, contrarian, unpopular dogs, hazmat dogs,
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whatever you want to call them in big heavily bet primetime
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games because you got to remember primetime games are
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basically higher ticket count games than any other games
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during the week. There's no other games to
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compete with. It's a one off and typically
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you're going to get a lot of betting on the favorite and the
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over because that's where the public likes to put their money.
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So right off the bat I'm saying, hey, Cleveland is a good
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contrarian play tonight, only getting around 30% of tickets.
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But then, as I try to mention on the pod, you know, going
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contrary and betting against the public, it's a foundational
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philosophy. It's not the end all be all.
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You can't just always bet against the public and expect to
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be a winning sports better. It's a foundation.
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But the whole point when you're a data-driven better is to not
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just be against the public, but to be with the sharps, the wise
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guys, the people who went at a high rate have their respect to
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the books. We do have angles here with some
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smart money on Cleveland. So if you go based on the opener
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of seven and a half, you do have some reverse line movement.
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The line has gone to Cleveland again.
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It's kind of popped back and forth.
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But a lot of betting system matches on the Cleveland Browns
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tonight. You know, spoiler alert, I'm on
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the plus 6 1/2. Cleveland get that hook pretty
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widely available. Plus 6 1/2.
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But big Rd. dogs Rd. dogs getting 6 points or more,
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They're 27 and 17 against the spread this year, 61 percent 17%
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ROI. Primetime dogs getting 6 points
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or more, they're 30 and 17 ATS 64 percent, 22% ROI since 2022.
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Now let's layer in a few more angles here.
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Cleveland correlative betting value.
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They are nearly a touchdown dog or technically touchdown is 6
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points, extra point is 7. This spread is basically 6 1/2,
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but round a touchdown dog and a very low total game of 42.
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Now the line has since gotten down to 41 1/2, but either way,
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you're a big dog low total. Why do we like dog low totals?
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On the flip side, you would learn more to short favorites
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high totals. But dog low total is a good
8:41
angle because the fewer amount of expected points scored going
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to mean it's going to be harder for that favorite to cover that
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number. Keep on cruising Browns.
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Buy low bad ATS team versus sell high good ATS team.
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Browns are only four and seven against the spread this year.
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The Broncos are nine and three ATS.
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So people who have played the Broncos make, This is probably
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part of the reason why you're seeing big public betting on the
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Broncos. Obviously better record at home,
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but people have bet them this year have made money.
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Broncos covered a lot of numbers.
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People who have played Cleveland have lost money or they bet
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against them and made money, whichever way you want to look
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at it. But when you're looking for
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value, it's always that buy low, sell high, buy low on the team
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that hasn't covered a lot, thinking they'll regress
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positively. Sell high on the team that has
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covered a lot, thinking they'll regress negatively.
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Also, an angle here that's important to me is a rest
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advantage. Cleveland Browns last played on
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Thursday, Broncos played on Sunday.
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So extra rest here. Three day advantage, rehab,
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injuries, game plan, get ready for the next game.
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Of course, the hook is important here.
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When I was writing the Sharper board for visen.com earlier
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today, there were only a couple books, 6 1/2.
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A lot of books were at six. A few more have gone to 6 1/2,
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but there still are some sixes out there.
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So of course, shop around. Try to find the 6 1/2.
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That's my angle. Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2.
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Now you now you may also be wondering about Jameis Winston
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covering numbers because we're sweating Jameis tonight.
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I'm sure we'll have some legendary quotes.
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Bit of an eccentric guy. I kind of like rooting for
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Jameis. I just feel like maybe you think
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it's a shtick. I think this is really who he
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is. Just kind of a weird dude.
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But he rallies the locker room. Now, if you look at Jameis
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Winston as a favorite, not good in his career dating back to his
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years with Tampa, 8 and 20 against the spread, 29%.
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But as a dog, 28 and 24 ATS 54%. If you isolate Jameis as a dog,
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getting six or more, 13 and five against the spread, 72%, so
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maybe they lose, but hopefully cover the number, lose by 6,
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cover with the hook, maybe that sort of thing.
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The other angle when you're looking at this play for
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Cleveland would be a good Rhythm edge.
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Our friends at Rhythm help us power this podcast.
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By the way, thank you all for tuning into Sunday sweats
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yesterday as I am part of the live stream 11:00 AM to noon
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every Sunday. But Rhythm has two models, the
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Rhythm AI model and a model that I created.
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Both are around or basically one has Cleveland plus 4.3.
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The other one has Cleveland plus 4.7.
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So even if you take the four 7 again, let's we can even round
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it up to A5 getting, you know, 6 1/2 point number on a analytics
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play that says the line should be closer to four or five.
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Good angle there to take the points with the Browns.
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So that's my play tonight. My first play is Cleveland plus
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6 1/2. Now the totals been all over the
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place. It opened us around 41, got as
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high as 42 1/2 and then it got bound back down to 42 around
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noon today. It's now come back down even
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more to 41 1/2. So late money is breaking under.
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I did notice a good bet split to the over at DraftKings, 56%
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bets, 72% money on the over. And we did see a lot of weather
11:49
play a factor this past week, and that's something we got to
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be conscious of as we're getting into December.
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And again, it gets colder, windier, rainy, snow, all that
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kind of stuff. But that should not be an issue
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tonight at Mile High. It's going to be high 30s, clear
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skies, pretty much no wind whatsoever.
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So that would be kind of a good angle to the over.
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So I want to respect, respect the late under money.
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I do have angles to the over. This is one of those are totals,
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I should say, where I don't have a clear edge one way or the
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other. Like if you were able to get
12:18
that under like 42 1/2, you're feeling really good seeing this
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line fall at this point. Yes, you're with the late move,
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but it's kind of kind of giving you the worst number at this
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point. So I don't want to touch that
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total. My first bet here of two of two
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plays, I'll tell you the prop in a second is Cleveland.
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So let's go Brownies. Let's see if the dog can bark
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for us. I'm on Browns plus 6 1/2 now.
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I got a player prop for you. So we're in a big game here
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tonight. Of course, Cortland Sutton, you
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know, Jerry, Judy, Nick Chubb, you know, Bo Nicks, Winston, all
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these good players here tonight or big names.
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But I'm going to focus on a guy that I discovered a few weeks
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ago. And actually I was on Visen
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earlier today to whom I hit with Stormy on her show and I
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mispronounced this guy's name the whole time.
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Then she corrected me and told me the correct pronunciation.
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So it is a wide receiver, a seventh round pick, rookie, 6
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foot five out of Utah. I kept calling him Devon Valet,
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but actually his name is Valet. Devon Valet.
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So my, my mistake, Devon Valet. I'm going to go Devon valet over
13:20
now here. It's important with the
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receiving prop that you get the best price.
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Try to get over 37 1/2 that is available, I believe at Bet MGM.
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But Fanduel's 38 1/2, Caesar's is 38 1/2 -, 120 over ESPN bet
13:34
is 39 1/2. So you see a lot of different
13:36
numbers here. Of course, shopping for the best
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line is important on game bets, sides, totals, money lines.
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But of course, with props you can see a big discrepancy.
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But I'm going to go Devon veil a my numbers over 37 and a half.
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First thing I notice is that he's gone over this number in
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three straight games and he's really been kind of getting more
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part of the offense here as the season has progressed.
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He's only played in eight games this year.
14:00
Broncos have played twelve games overall.
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He's only played eight games, but he is third on the team and
14:06
targets. So this is a guy that again,
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it's been really getting more more play, more targets, more
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looks as the season has progressed.
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Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, he had 80 receiving
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yards week before that 66 week before that 39.
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So think of it the other way. If you look at his his chart on
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rhythm, which again, got to go download that rhythm app, it's
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pretty much looks like some beautiful stairs just getting up
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and up and up in the right direction as he's getting more
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targets, more looks, more catches, more yards.
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Also, I think or I hope it's going to be a favorable matchup
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for Devon Valet. I mentioned his height, 6 foot
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5, but Cortland Sutton is your number one wideout.
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So I would assume Denzel Ward and a lot of the focus of
14:50
Cleveland defensively will be on stopping Cortland Sutton.
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What does that mean? It means Devon Valet hopefully
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will be going up secondary or kind of, you know, second tier
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secondary players, defensive backs also defensive backs that
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are 6 foot even 5 foot 11 and this guy is 6 foot 5.
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So hopefully with the focus on Sutton, that provides
15:09
opportunities for Devon Valet to get some good yardage.
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And then I mentioned the over 37 1/2.
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Our friends at Rhythm are predicting Devon Valet with 51
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receiving yards. So if you're giving me a guy who
15:23
is really ascending, becoming more of a target here, Bonex has
15:27
really gone to him last few weeks.
15:29
It's kind of an under the radar name that you may not have heard
15:32
of, but he's over 37 1/2 and Rhythms predicting 51.
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That's a pretty good round, 14 point edge or 14 yard edge
15:39
toward that over. So give me the brownies plus 6
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1/2 and give me Devon Valet. It's valet.
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It's not valet, valet over 37 1/2.
15:49
So can we at least get one of those between the side and the
15:52
prop? Now over to some college hoops
15:54
because there's one college hoops game that caught my eye
15:57
tonight and it is kind of a classic for us.
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An added game, extra game, obscure sharp line move with a
16:04
good Ken Palm edge as well. So the game that I landed on for
16:06
tonight, Bryant and Drexel, it's a 7:00 game and it is in
16:12
Philadelphia as Drexel plays in Philly, of course.
16:15
But this one caught my eye for a couple different reasons.
16:17
So let me pull up this game on my on my board here.
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Bryant comes in four and four. They've lost three of their last
16:25
four, though struggled a bit. Flip side, Drexel five and
16:28
three, they've won three of their last four And Drexel, of
16:31
course, is at home. Now, the first thing I noticed
16:33
is some line, good line movement.
16:35
Now you open this game, Drexel at home around a one point
16:39
favorite, 1 1/2 point favorite. Now, earlier in the day, you saw
16:43
Drexel get as high as -2 -, 2 1/2.
16:46
This line has come back down a little bit.
16:48
It's back down to around 1 1/2. But the angle to me is Drexel
16:53
money line. I got Drexel on the money line
16:55
around -1 I think I got -128 at FanDuel.
16:59
Now we can get it a little bit shorter.
17:00
You can probably shop around and find around a -, 120 You might
17:04
be worried that the signs going back a little bit toward Bryant
17:07
again dance with the one who brung you type play.
17:09
But here's what's going to make you excited to play Drexel.
17:12
One is the added game extra game.
17:14
So I try to mention this anytime I have the chance, but the NSS
17:17
or Vegas ID number, if you noticed, typically it's going to
17:20
be a three digit number. So game you know, 861862 that's
17:24
going to be your your regular play.
17:26
If it's an added game extra game, it's a six digit rotation
17:28
number. So this is game 306-611-3066
17:32
one, two. So if you're at the book and you
17:34
walk up to the counter and say you want to place a bet, you'll
17:37
say game three O 6612, you know, money line or whatever, whatever
17:42
you're going to put in, you give the the money to the the ticket
17:44
writer. But why do I mention that?
17:46
Because these these add a game extra games are very difficult
17:48
to find on your sports betting app.
17:50
Typically it's an extra tab that you got to search for.
17:53
It's one in a football after Thanksgiving.
17:55
I don't think a lot of public betters are clamoring to bet
17:58
Bryant Drexel. But the fact this line is moved
18:01
toward Drexel again tells me that, you know, sharp, sharp
18:05
betters wise guys have gotten down on Drexel.
18:08
So always pay attention to obscure sharp line moves in low
18:11
bet added game extra games. Now here's where it gets good.
18:15
Our our buddy Ken Palm has Drexel winning this game by
18:18
three. Ken Palm also with his analytics
18:21
are showing a lot of advantages to Drexel.
18:23
Drexel's offensive adjusted efficiency.
18:26
So how do you how efficient are you in offense?
18:28
153 in the country, Bryant 186. So better offense.
18:33
Effective field goal percentage, 54% this versus 50% defensively,
18:39
Drexel's only giving up 66 points a game versus nearly 80
18:43
for Bryant. One day rest advantage, nothing
18:46
huge. Both teams have been off since
18:48
the break, but the last game for Drexel was the 26th versus
18:51
Bryant the 27th. And then if you look at Bryant,
18:56
I would call this kind of a schedule disadvantage.
18:59
Bryant's first two games are at home and now they're playing
19:02
there. Let me count them up, 123456,
19:05
not six straight, but six of their last seven games are on
19:08
the road and they've struggled on the road here.
19:10
So it's kind of a tough schedule spot on the road after
19:12
Thanksgiving versus Drexel playing their third straight
19:15
home game. Haven't didn't have to travel
19:18
during Thanksgiving break. Then I look at home Rd. splits.
19:21
I think it's really important in college.
19:22
It's not as important in the NFL or pro sports or NBA because
19:26
pros are used to it. College kids, it's a big
19:28
advantage to be at home versus having to travel on the road,
19:31
especially with dealing with a lot of crowd noise and stuff
19:33
like that. But Drexel is 2 and one at home
19:36
and they were 13 and one at home last year.
19:39
So really good home cooking. Bryant two and three on the road
19:42
this year, 8 and 10 on the road last year.
19:44
So home Rd. splits favored Drexel lines going back and
19:48
forth, but it did move at one point toward Drexel.
19:51
Better offense, better defense. Again, Ken Palm has Drexel
19:54
winning by three. I want to say Rhythm had Drexel
19:57
winning by like 1.7 points. But again, you see a 1 1/2 right
20:02
now. Are we going to lay 1 1/2?
20:04
I mean, you can if you want, save some juice.
20:06
But hopefully I've taught you at this point that hey, I think
20:10
there's the better players to go money line because if Drexel
20:12
wins by one point. And think of it this way, the
20:14
oddsmakers are telling you 1 1/2 point spread.
20:17
It could be a very tight game. Drexel wins by 1.
20:20
You want to cash that ticket. You don't want to lose a -, 1
20:23
1/2. So my only play in college
20:24
hoops. Let's go Drexel Dragons.
20:27
Let's get it done and win this game at home.
20:30
I'm on the Drexel money line. I got -128 you can shop around
20:33
and find a game as low or a number as low as around -120 so
20:37
Drexel Money line, Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2 and Devon
20:41
Valet over 37 1/2 receiving yards.
20:44
So that about does it a bit shorter than usual.
20:46
Short and sweet Episode 173 of the ASG Pod, Powered by Rhythm.
20:51
This is the part of the pod where we wrap it up, and I start
20:54
by asking a big favor of you. First off, thank you.
20:57
Of course, you know, we're getting to the part of the year
20:59
where you're thankful for what you have and hopefully you don't
21:02
lament what you don't have, but thankful for you guys tuning in
21:05
each day, listening to the pod, helping me grow the pod,
21:08
building a community of data-driven, sharp contrarian
21:10
betters. Again, I'm just very privileged
21:12
and honored to toast this pod each day and have you guys
21:15
TuneIn. So please could you do me a big
21:17
favor? It'll take you literally 2
21:20
seconds, maybe one second, one tap of the finger.
21:22
Could you give this podcast a five star review, please?
21:25
If you enjoy the pod, if you think the insights and angles
21:28
are valuable, give it a five star review on Spotify or
21:31
iTunes. Really helps us to grow the pod
21:34
and gain more listens and rise up the charts.
21:36
If you want to click that follow button.
21:38
That way when it gets dropped each day, early afternoon, it'll
21:41
get it'll pop up right on your library.
21:43
You don't have to search for it. If you want to recommend it to a
21:45
friend, even better, there's an option to leave a a nice
21:48
comment. Hey, I won't say no to that
21:50
either, but please, a five star review would go a long way.
21:53
Secondly, if you enjoyed this podcast and you are now
21:57
interested, very much interested in data-driven contrarian
21:59
betting because again, no bias, no opinion.
22:02
We're betting based on where the smart money's going and also
22:05
trying to be against the public with our system matches.
22:07
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, and I
22:10
know it's officially December now and maybe you're searching
22:13
for a gift for your uncle, your grandson, you know, your
22:17
brother, your colleague, something for Secret Santa or
22:20
Hanukkah present. I have a great idea.
22:22
You should go buy that person who needs a gift, a book and
22:26
you're like, oh, book that's boring, right?
22:27
No, because this book could hopefully make you some money.
22:30
It's called the everything guide to sports betting.
22:32
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
22:36
betting. I wrote that baby.
22:37
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
22:40
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
22:42
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
22:45
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
22:47
management plan, all included in the everything guide to sports
22:51
betting. So just go pick it up at Amazon.
22:53
Boom, bring it to the book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
22:55
buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together
22:58
next. Have you signed up for a 7 day
23:01
free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
23:03
My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all
23:06
data-driven. If you look at Juice Reel, of
23:09
course, the ASG Pod best bets are now posted to Juice Reel.
23:12
It's 499 a week. Again, I cringe a little bit
23:15
because I don't want to sound like a tout, but these are our
23:18
plays that I would think about as like a tip jar or if you
23:21
enjoy the pod and all these insights are free again, 5 bucks
23:24
a week hopefully helps helps you win some tickets or win some
23:27
bets here. But you can follow all the best
23:29
bets on Juice Reel. Again, you can click that link
23:33
that's now in the bio description of the pod or I will
23:36
tweet them out each day. But think of it as you know a
23:39
tip jar, you know, one coffee a week to get these good insights.
23:42
So I hope you feel that way is worth it, but also not just the
23:47
ASG best bets, but also the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
23:50
arbitrage opportunity sharp mush indicators.
23:53
I also love looking at the dollar breakdowns for every game
23:57
for bets and dollars on both. You know, spread money line
24:00
total for every game to know where people in the juicer lap
24:03
are leaning as well as looking at shopping for the best line
24:07
for prices on futures makes it really easy on the juicer lap.
24:10
And of course, rhythm rhythm fantastic for their AI back
24:13
models and predictions for game bets as well as player props.
24:17
So please follow the ASG best bets on Juice Rail and of
24:21
course, download both apps and hopefully they'll help you win a
24:23
little bit because they help me win as well.
24:26
So not about does it. Of course, I'll leave you with a
24:29
couple things here. One, whether I see you at the
24:31
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
24:34
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in
24:37
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
24:39
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
24:42
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
24:45
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
24:48
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point, or
24:50
Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium swimming
24:53
pool. When you cash a big ticket at
24:55
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me some
24:57
good tickets. Since we last talked Michigan,
25:00
Richmond, Loyal and Miramount, the Minnesota Wild, the Miami,
25:03
Green Bay. Under who else?
25:05
San Jose State? The Cowboys?
25:09
How about Fresno State? How about the Jags?
25:11
Mac Jones covering, I can't believe it.
25:13
Seattle money line dance with the one who brung US.
25:15
Carolina plus six. Guess what?
25:17
First one's on me, next one's on you.
25:19
Flash that ticket and we'll sweat some sharp contrane plays
25:22
at the book. As always, guys, I'll leave you
25:24
with this. Whether we're hot, whether we're
25:26
cold, whether we are grinding and just trying to tread water,
25:29
whether we're trying to bounce back from a losing day or we're
25:33
trying to post another winning day.
25:34
I hope you guys know at this point the model never changes.
25:38
Flat betting data-driven sports betting plays.
25:40
There's a there's an angle, there's a system match.
25:43
There's a contrarian sharp bet. We're going to play it, but
25:45
we're going to stay true to our bankroll management, of course
25:48
as well. But I'll always leave you with
25:49
this stay sharp, stay contrarian bet against the public, place
25:53
yourself on the side of the house.
25:54
Always be with the smart money, never against it will smart
25:57
money when every time no, it won't and get a lot of new
26:00
betters. You know, are like, oh, that was
26:02
a sharp bet and it lost. You know, what's the deal?
26:05
Remember, sports betting is very difficult.
26:07
Sharp bets are not going to win every time, but they're going to
26:09
win a majority of the time, around 55 to 60%.
26:12
And that's why we want to be against the public, with the
26:15
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that COV.
26:18
If we can do that, and I'm pretty confident that we can,
26:21
then if we do it long term, over thousands and thousands of bets,
26:24
we're going to come out on top in the end.
26:27
So I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
26:29
Welcome to the month of December.
26:31
We'll be sweating bowl games before you know it.
26:33
But as always, thank you for tuning in.
26:35
And then we'll be right back at it tomorrow on a big Tuesday,
26:38
which will be episode 174 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
26:43
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck, everybody.
26:46
Enjoy your Monday night.