Latest / Crosstabs / The Blue Wave?

Transcript

The Blue Wave? · Crosstabs

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm
• 0:05
  [music]
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: still, you know, Reagan, I'm still an old guy.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm pretty good with technology for, you know, a 50 year old, let's be honest.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: You are.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: We could go more in depth, but I don't know that people are really that interested.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: Not as much as they're about coffee, I think.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: We're still getting texts about your coffee.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, listen, speaking of coffee,
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: we're doing a fundraiser with Owens and Vicky this week,
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: and it's just been super crazy, right?
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, the end of these elections are just nuts,
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_02: but Owens is so into, like,
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: coffee now,
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: Rep Owens,
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: that he's, like,
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: he brought, like, a mic,
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: because we had to share a cabin with him out of Sylvie's Ranch,
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: and he brought, like,
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_02: his own coffee and his own, like,
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: And every morning he gets up early,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: earlier than me, which is good for me because then I had coffee ready.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_02: So I was like, man, I had room with him any day.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: If you visit his office at the Capitol, they've got a fancy machine.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: They make some of the best coffee in the building.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: So yes, we're all very thankful.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Here on the House side and and even on the Senate side,
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: if you want to come take a walk to get some some good coffee.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Bryan, I just as I fired up Twitter to make sure I hadn't missed any breaking news.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: GOP congressman from Texas says we should send kittens to Chinese restaurants.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm just like I read stuff like that and go could be taken out of context, could be whatever.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: But like, how serious are you about winning?
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: When that's the kind of things you're dealing with on a day-to-day basis.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: I just feel like we have some people here who are not as invested in the winning.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: And they need them to kind of get invested because it's hurry up and go time.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Oregon ballots are already out.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of states are doing early voting.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: The more serious voting doesn't happen.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, the larger chunks.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: But, I mean, it's voting time at the end of the day.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: And we can't be on the silly stuff.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_02: It turns out it is voting time.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: And it I mean, not a lot of people voting yet.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think a lot of people either have voted or haven't put it on there,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_02: put it back in the mail or drop it off at all the new drop boxes that are all over
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_02: the place because we, of course, had to give more money.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: The response to everything in the world of Oregon is more money, and then we can get that done.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, my ballot's still sitting on my kitchen sink.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_02: I'm waiting for...
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: Somebody to reach out and ask me to vote and we'll be curious if anybody does.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: I my wife and I will probably vote early for the first time.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I normally hold my ballots at the end, but there's no competitive races where I'm at.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm just like, let's get it in.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: No GOTV money gets wasted on me and get it over with.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: So, Bryan, I want to talk to you really quick about what many people are calling flag gate.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's sort of developed over the weekend.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: So I want to kind of walk you through the events of it and then kind of get your take on it.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a pretty testy Washington County chairs race
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: between two incumbent commissioners, Nafisa Fai and Pam Trees.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: And it's kind of DSA,
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: far left progressive Nafisa Fai versus establishment kind of chamber
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: of commerce backed Democrat Pam Trees.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, it's getting a lot of play.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if she weren't up for election, it wouldn't get as much play.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: But so apparently what happened was That Nafisa Fai went to a predominantly Somali group.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was in Minnesota.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: where she says she's talking about,
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know, getting them revved up to get involved in the elections.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And a picture or a screenshot of this video clip, something like that, got distributed.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: And the people that were filming it is a Facebook page called Somali TV.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: So their own community is filming it, distributing it.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: The bottom chyron or whatever you call that,
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: that shows who's talking,
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: kind of like it's a news program, is clearly generated by AI.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's important because it makes the whole image look like it is generated by AI.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: And that is the accusation that gets leveled when this picture gets distributed
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: because another important part of this image or this video is that she's in front of
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: an upside down American flag.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: That the stars and stripes,
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: that the stars in the blue square are in the bottom right instead of top left
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: where they're supposed
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: to be.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that tends to be up there with burning the flag,
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: kind of one of those not super pro-America messaging points, tends to be negative.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: So originally it was reported that Nafisa Fai herself shared an image of the event
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: where the flag is right side up, that it is correct.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so then Oregon Journalism Project go out and writes this article and they say
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: that AI has been used to make her look un-American and its attack on immigrants
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: and all of this stuff.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Turns out the image that was shared,
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: which Nafisa Fai says she did not supply,
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: or Oregon Journalism Project says she did not supply,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: it was actually inaccurately reported.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: It was a supporter of her campaign that supplied it.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: That image was actually AI.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so they used AI to make the flag appear correct instead of upside down.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: And that she would, of course, never have appeared in an event where the flag was.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: And they attempted and tried to get original video and couldn't.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Somali TV has since deleted the footage of this event because it's causing problems
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: for all the people that appeared, not just Defeasify, but everybody.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: And Oregon Journalism Project is forced to hold down their article.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: All of the Democrats that came to her defense,
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: except for,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: and I want to point out, Representative Graber edited her post and left it up.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone else is deleting their post, not acknowledging the mistake, accusing the people who...
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Created the first image,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: which is actually Somali TV,
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: not any right-wing folks on Twitter, from using it to basically attack her.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: And they called it racist, and they called it rhetoric and AI-generated deepfakes.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: And this is, I want to point out, and if you couldn't follow, it's so messy.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very messy.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Bad, bad situation.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: But, Bryan, now that you're all caught up, maybe you were following it yourself.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: I was following you following it.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_02: That was almost more fun because you kind of blew up on X there, you know, posting some stuff.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: And it goes to show you that we are definitely moving the lines between,
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: you know, people's desire to break news right away.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_02: Then their desire to kind of like get the facts and then write like a real story
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: after the fact.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: So I think it goes to that.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_02: And we're all victims of it, right?
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_02: you see something on X or you see something out there and you immediately like want
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_02: to put it out there because it does get you more likes for whatever,
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: you know, whatever platform you're on.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_02: We'll just use likes because everybody knows that one.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_02: But that's the reality of it is I think we jump to conclusions a lot.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_02: I think even the same thing happened with the Ben shooting.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_02: It was like,
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_02: it happened,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: then everybody's jumping to conclusions,
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: and then they're putting out some statements,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: and then you kind of learn, oh,
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_02: wait a minute,
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_02: there was this hero guy that showed up,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: and blah, blah, blah,
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: and then you find out, well,
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_02: the kid actually shot up a truck outside,
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: and then jumped the fence,
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_02: and then the guy saw him,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: and then they blew out a window,
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_02: and like,
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_02: Facts evolve over time,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_02: and I think sometimes you've got to just give things 48 hours to really get an idea
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_02: of what happened when you see something even like this, I think.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think the Journalism Project jumped on it probably a little,
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: obviously a little too early.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: But also maybe if they didn't,
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_02: maybe like nobody would have shared the other footage or something, right?
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_02: So it does go to show you it's an interesting story.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: AI will continue to play a role in politics because...
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_02: We've been lying about other candidates since the dawn of politics.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you take a quote out of context and you source,
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_02: oh, it was podcast Crosstabs, November 2019 or some shit, right?
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_02: And they made some statement about taxes that was irrelevant and To today,
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_02: but if pulled out of context, it sure seems relevant, right?
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_02: So they're for raising taxes.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess I go with the idea that if you enter this political arena,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_02: You're entering the fight and the fight is dirty.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: It's mudslinging and it's tough business.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: And if you can't handle it, then you probably shouldn't get it.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_02: And I'll keep that same thought process going forward.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_02: But it is hilarious that Minnesota is becoming the rallying cry for
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_02: the People's Republic of Minnesota.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_02: You know, Africa, apparently.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: So, or who everybody that wants Somalia to be somehow it's the capital.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_02: What did somebody call it?
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_02: They said Elon Omar's district is the Somali capital of Minnesota.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_02: You know, and it just makes a lot of sense.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_02: So this is where all the gangs are and stuff,
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_02: you know, and they they all went to Minnesota and they've kind of taken over.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_02: But I think I feel like if there's a loser in this election cycle,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_02: it has to be the Somali immigrants and everything.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: Because it really feels like they've taken a beating.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: And people, I would say people are unclear.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: And there will be no way to know if anybody noticed the flag was upside down,
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: if it was intentional or not.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: There's no way to know that.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: It could have been a protest because their daycares are empty and unfunded now.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: They were always empty.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: They were just maybe not funded.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: They had been funded in the past.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: But this is a warning sign or a reminder when you see a big mistake like this.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't have an advanced person,
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: maybe you have an advanced person,
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: maybe you're high enough up, you need good advanced people.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: And if you don't have an advanced person,
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: you see an upside down flag,
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: maybe you're sick and you actually need to go home and you can't speak anymore
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: because that image of you with the upside down flag is Could definitely be
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: a problem.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: So that's just, I think, the thing that we learned there from this whole situation.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: And Journalism Project hasn't said if they checked any of those images either.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting to see if they come out later with more information on that.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: But the Oregonian reporting was that they weren't going to disclose about whether
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: or not they checked any of the images for AI.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: Start with that one when we start with Jake.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_02: Here in a second.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_02: So you have Blue Sky?
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_02: I've never looked at it.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_02: Is it any good?
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: Every six months, I got to go in there and see what's going on.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then I go, this is very different than Twitter.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: And I slowly back away.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_02: Jake, what's your Blue Sky handle?
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's just Jake Weigler.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I love having a name that no one else knows or isn't, you know, is unique.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like, you know, Reagan 65 or something like that.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: Like a lot of people.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I just thought they're all on there like I hate Trump 9974965
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: because there's like 80 million people with it.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_02: The same I hate Trump handle.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: It is like, you know, Twitter 2021.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's very safe space.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: I did.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: I did.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: My bio on here is still the first Oregon Republican on this website,
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: and I might still be the
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: only one.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not on there.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: But you're close.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: So every six months I troll and I log in,
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: I log into threads and I log into Blue Sky where more of the sort
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: of democratic leaning people are.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I just post, why is Vancouver the nicest suburb of Portland?
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: And then I log off.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: It makes people so angry.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: They get so mad when I say that.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: And it's very funny.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_01: Can you, I mean, I don't, I read Twitter, but I don't post there.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Can you turn off comments on Twitter?
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: Cause you can do that on Blue Sky.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: You can post and just go.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm done.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: No responses.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, you can.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: but I hate it when you turn off comments because I feel like you're mic dropping
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: and it's not really fair.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: Or you're hiding for
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: bad news.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's pretty rare.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: So we had this incident in the 2020 race where the presidential,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: where some other firm named Praxis throttled some Bernie feeds on Twitter.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: And like some national left-wing podcast decided that we were responsible
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: because they were doing quick Googling.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_01: And all of a sudden, our like feeds just exploded.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: And we're like,
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to turn this off for a couple hours
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: until we can let these guys know it wasn't us.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's great.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: It was fun.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_02: That's good stuff.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we were talking earlier and then we were just transitioning over to fake polls.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean,
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: because, I mean,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: you clearly have nothing to do, Jake,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_02: because, I mean,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_02: Democrats apparently can just cakewalk into a victory this cycle
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_02: without doing anything.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_02: you can put candidates up that's nobody even ever heard before and they've been
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_02: a painter for the last 20 years and they're beating incumbents, apparently.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think your side made that easy for us, but keep going.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_02: I think I just thought the polling stuff on the 538 Reagan, is that what it was?
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: So it's all a lot of the former...
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Five, 38 people went because ABC shut it down.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: They went to a new website called 50 plus one and they do polling aggregation
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: and data and you can subscribe and it's a whole thing.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: And it's really good.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's really good stuff.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: It's a lot of the same work that 538 was doing before they got shut down.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: And they were investigating these folks called Wedgwood that had put out a lot
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: of polls that had released suspect data inside of them.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: And then apparently they also paid for one legitimate poll and published one legitimate poll.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was maybe Nebraska Senate.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, these guys had fed a bunch of polls out there.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: They go on Twitter.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: They immediately get put into all the algorithms.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: And there's all kinds of groups that are doing it.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: Nate Silver's over at Silver Bulletin.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's doing aggregation of data.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: There's a bunch of others now that have these polling models for all these key races.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's the cool thing that Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight made cool.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the other day,
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: Wedgwood goes and posts, hey,
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: just so you know,
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: this was an experiment the whole time to prove that
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: the ecosystem sucks up these poles immediately and includes them in their models and
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: in their projections.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: And we think that's really dangerous and people should be aware of it.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, bye.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: And somebody who works at 50 Plus One said, hey,
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: this is a distortion of We think that they're lying
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: because we proved their data was falsified,
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: that their methodologies were bad, and that this may have been...
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: And other people are speculating that this was actually an attempt to move
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: the averages or to put races in play that were not in play before.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: by dropping the first poll in a Senate race no one was looking at that shows
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: a competitive or something like that.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: And and they they were one of the pollsters,
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: by the way,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: that put a poll out in the Minnesota Democratic primary that showed Abdul El Saeed.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: Ahead of Mallory McMorrow by a pretty substantial margin.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: And she now claims is part of the reason that all of her momentum died off.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: Because these campaigns are so very online in the early primaries.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: And that a lot of the online data,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: the current polling data,
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: drives what your online donations are,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: drives the hype,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: drives the ability for you to use social media to your benefit in fundraising.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of claims, again, stuff that's so hard to adjudicate.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: We may never know the answers from, but very, very it was just a weird thing to read.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's a changing environment, right?
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now I'm going to show my age.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: When I started out, I would try and get a poll from behind our campaign and get it in the press.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: And they'd laugh at you and be like, why would we publish this?
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: It's just clearly you're like propaganda.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: And now I think because they're reducing media budgets,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: they just don't have the volume of neutral, independent polling.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: So they'll take any polls.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: And that firewall is really eroded, which allows people to manipulate.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now I will say also,
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: There's always been no ways to manipulate the polls, like the classic Oregon.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you guys are like,
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: go back this far,
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: but like,
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: in 1990,
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: when Barbara Roberts won the Patricia McKay big strategy,
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: which she'd go up on TV in January,
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: pump up Barbara's positives and then go in the field three weeks later in the poll
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: and be like, oh, look, our candidates doing really well.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you were the only ones communicating over the last three weeks.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's always been this ability to game it,
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: but there's so many more ways to do it now.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: And so if you less checks,
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: you're right that it's just kind of like caveat emptor,
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: you know, there's any data out there.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like I was going to talk about some race the other day.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: I was like, well, let's go to polymarket, you know, like it's a data point I can put out there.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: Is it really reliable?
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: Probably not.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, there's a lot of ways to spend things.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: You've never heard of that, Bryan,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: that strategy of going into the field right when there's a poll going on or
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: a poll that's about to happen or a poll that happens right after.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: I've never heard of that before.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_02: I would never use it.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_02: I was going to laugh because I was in high school in 1990 and Reagan wasn't even born.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, there's kind of that, Jake.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_02: But Barbara Roberts,
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_02: I see her painting on the wall in the legislature,
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_02: but I wasn't really around much when she was governor.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: But...
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_02: I think you're right though.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: Like the polling then was way more independent.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_02: It felt like it was way more independent.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_02: And then now I feel like you have each side that has their own,
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_02: like each side has their own pollsters now, right?
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we have our Republican pollsters, Democrats have theirs.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_02: And most of that is consultants get used to using somebody and that's just who they like.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_02: But the reality is you can manipulate these polls.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: However,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: if you're even actually doing them,
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_02: turns out these guys were just- Because Wedgwood sounds kind of like it's
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_02: a top-notch whatever.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: You just come up with a name and you stick it out there.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_02: And manipulating is always,
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_02: if you have a legislative race and you know a poll's happening and you're, yeah,
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_02: why wouldn't you buy some TV for a couple weeks and see if you can up your name ID
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_02: a little bit to show a better poll?
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_02: Makes sense.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_02: But that's politics too, right?
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, politics isn't,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_02: Politics,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_02: part of like what Reagan and I were talking about before,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_02: like this stuff is,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_02: it's a dirty business and polling is just one piece of the business and it's used
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_02: for donors.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_02: It's used to, you know, try to get more money from outside interest groups.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_02: Like shit's always flying around polling.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_02: And this is, it's, I find it kind of interesting on the, on the polling.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_02: So.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I just want to know how does Rasmussen reports survive?
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: Like, They've always got it.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's always a sunny day if you're a Republican and Rasmussen's polling and
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: yet 25 years on,
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: they're still putting out data and everyone's like, yep, this is legit.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so this sounds great.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_02: Well, and like the polling going on like right now,
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_02: like I was talking to JL Wilson, who's, what's the name of his?
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_02: Nelson Research he has.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_02: And he was talking about how it's just, it's really difficult.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_02: He feels to get like,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_02: Really specific good data right now because you're finding a lot of people
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_02: and it's just a gut he says and it kind of is being driven by the numbers
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_02: and it makes me wonder that like you go out to poll people
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_02: and like independents want to take the poll that say hate the direction of
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_02: the country so you're getting maybe more of an inflated Desire of the people
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_02: that hate the country versus people who just don't want to take polls.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans are always notoriously hard to poll because they don't answer the phone
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_02: and they don't want to take polling.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_02: And then also seniors usually get oversampled because
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_02: the younger people never really, you know, they're hard to pin down and stuff.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_02: So there's a lot of nuances with polls.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_02: And then you read polls like some of the people like just I mean, you guys probably don't.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_02: I flat out just don't answer my phone anymore.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_02: If I don't know the person, I'll see if they leave a message and then call them back.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_02: But in online polls,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_02: like people try to do the triple modal thing where they're doing web and texting.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_02: And I just don't know what's super real and what's super not.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_02: I tend to think with you,
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_02: like congressional Senate races,
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_02: I'll go with like,
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think poly market's a good place to start because like, where are people betting?
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_02: Cause they're kind of aggregating polls.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_02: But in Oregon, it's really hard, right?
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: I've gotten so far seven polls that are literally just one text.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: They're from a place called Titus Surveys.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't had a chance to look them up yet.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: Who do you plan to vote for for U.S. House in November?
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm in the fifth district.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: So they asked Bynum Adair or some any other.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: And so I've just replied Adair every time because I plan to vote for Patty Adair.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think there's anything that's likely to come out that'll change my mind
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: on that, but I've gotten seven of those.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's part of the multimodal.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: But I would guess it's a one question.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's a one question poll.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe they're pulling my data from the voter.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: So that gives them hopefully their demo, right?
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: All their information that they want, they do on all those questions.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I get a lot, I get a pretty decent number of online click-through ones too.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: I only do those depending on if they're short or interesting.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: If they're long and boring, I don't do them.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I get a good number of them.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: They're like corporate type research.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: Like have you ever heard of Optum when they merged with Corvallis Clinic or something like that?
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: Stuff like that.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: And then occasionally I've gotten good political ones.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: But it's,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: I would say,
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: and you're supposed to be able to correct for that in your sampling, right?
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: You're correcting for the fact that you've got too many seniors and all that stuff.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: But even if you're pulling a certain type of senior or a certain type
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: of young person or a certain type of independent,
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: still going to throw your Numbers off and it can pretty substantially.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's what your margin bearer is supposed to be for as well.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll just see.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see if the polls are right on with Democrats,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: if they're oversampling and overestimating Democrats chances or something in
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: between.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I think voters are more strategic.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I think particularly on your side of the aisle,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: they're kind of distrustful of these polls,
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: like they feel like there's a liberal bias.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: And so they're more,
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: they're giving the answer that is the result they want to see,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: maybe than just their unvarnished opinion.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: And then to your point.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: Then it's job of the pollster to create these buckets and be like,
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's going to be this many seniors,
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: this many Democrats, this many Republicans.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of the black box of the poll.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: Who knows?
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: That pollster had to decide.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: And usually even if they're honest, they're just doing their best estimate.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're dishonest,
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: it's really easy to just put your thumb on the scale and manipulate the piles
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: and shift it anyway.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_01: So it is a bit of an art.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's another data point.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I think, yeah, that we're learning.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: We hold polls up as this objective sense of people's opinion,
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: and it is better than I talk to 12 dudes down the street,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: but it has its limitations, and those are getting more obvious.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_02: Slightly better than 12 dudes down the street.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: I think sometimes I might take the 12 dudes
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: down the street.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: Wisdom of crowds, totally.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think so.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_02: I just find that polling to me has just become...
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_02: Especially in,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_02: let's just,
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_02: you get down to like legislative seats,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: you're talking 60,000 people and I just think you can't get a sense of where people,
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_02: because most of them don't know the people running,
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_02: they don't give a shit,
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_02: the ones that say they do probably lie,
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_02: because they don't want to be, say they don't know who, So and so is right.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_02: I think that tends to be a lot of it.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_02: But because if you look at that versus like,
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm sure you've seen some polls on legislative races
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_02: where they asked Drazen Kotech,
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_02: you know, and basically everybody's got an opinion at that point.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_02: And if they don't have opinion,
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_02: you're living under a rock or you just don't want to say how you're voting, right?
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_02: Like you, you're decided.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_02: Don't tell me you're not decided.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think there's an undecided voter in the Kotech Drazen race.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_02: It's kind of like Trump-Kamala.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_02: You were decided.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_02: You just didn't want to say.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: But then you get down to the legislative races.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_02: You go from super high name ID down to 9%.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_02: And how do you really, you can't just extract a poll out of that.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_02: That's why generic is super important to me.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_02: I think the, you know, just are you voting R or D, you know, down ticket, that kind of thing.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: Cause I've really,
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's how most people decide they,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: you know, and you get some that go, Oh, I'm going to vote for Drazen this time.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: That's a Democrat,
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_02: but then they'll switch back and vote for the D's and The Senate and the House race.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe they want divided government.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe they think that's a little bit better.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_02: But so some of that will happen.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_02: But I think the reality is, is generically, how are you going to vote?
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_02: I think is more important because,
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: like I said,
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_02: you can have no names and they're just a Republican or Democrat
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_02: and they would they would win.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, I mean, ticket splitters are pretty rare.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, nowadays I will say though,
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think the most adorable conversation I have is with like a civilian
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: and we'll be like working on like a Salem city council race.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, what are the polls saying?
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, this is a city council race in Salem.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: Like we are, we are doing a polling and by the way, like we don't get money for that.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, they, they see on our campaign is,
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_00: Our strategy is based on vibes currently.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: Our messaging is based on vibes.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: Shut up, Reagan.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of the vibes.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: Don't tell them how we do our work.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Look, there's only a few people who can read the vibes.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's the key, right?
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there you go.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: So what are, on the Democratic side of the aisle, what are the vibes?
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: Are the vibes like pedal to the metal?
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: Are the vibes like, oh gosh, the polls are setting us up for failure?
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm talking specifically more about Oregon, I think.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think national, it feels like it's all over the place.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's definitely Dem leaning,
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: but lots of close races everywhere,
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: which in places where maybe there shouldn't be close races and then places
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: where there definitely should be close races.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: But like,
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: what are Democrats feeling about Oregon or what's your sense of Democrats
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: and their feeling about Oregon right now?
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_01: it's a little schizophrenic and we talked about this in the primary
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: and I think it's pretty analogous actually to Minnesota where you look like
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: the governor's race and the Senate race,
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: they're kind of way underperforming compared to other democratic States
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: where like Democrats really, really hate the guy in the Oval Office right now.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Like this is, you know, end of civilization kind of a decision for them.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: But there's also like, I'm really let down by my team.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: Like I feel like I see all these big challenges in our society
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: and my team is just not up to the moment.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I feel there's this dichotomy of like,
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: I really don't want to vote for those guys,
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: but at the same time,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm pretty underwhelmed with who you're putting forward for me.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think there's this give poll of like, well, I better vote.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: I better vote blue because if I don't,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: maybe I don't get to vote again,
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: but also like,
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: and if they do,
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they better step up or I'm going to be completely dissatisfied.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I think,
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: you see that with kind of Tina's approval numbers
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: and some other stuff just more generally
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: of like feeling like Democrats aren't meeting the moment.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: So I think in the end, they're all going to vote blue.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: But whether it's like the next legislative session
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: or this new upcoming Democratic primary presidential primary,
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: which will start,
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: November 5th,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: like I think we have a real reckoning on the left, I guess is how I'd say it.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_02: I find the Minnesota one pretty interesting because Walls isn't on the ballot.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_02: I can see how Kotak, because of her negatives, she's dragging herself down.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_02: But I do find in Minnesota,
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_02: it's pretty interesting to see the hangover that's affecting that governor's race.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_02: Because Klobuchar is considered to be the gold standard in Minnesota.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_02: And for her to not...
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_02: Kind of be running away with it because I think you're right.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_02: It feels like in those states where they were already center left states to begin
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_02: with,
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_02: they're like tilting way over because President Trump's lost all the independents
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_02: and NAVs that were on his team before.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's But it is odd that we have a couple of these states like
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_02: a governor's race in Oregon and Minnesota with a Senate race and a governor's race.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_02: But I'm with you.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_02: I think ultimately they'll probably fall back to the blue.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_02: I think people will...
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: They tend to come home.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_02: That always seems to be the case.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_02: Speaking of polling,
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_02: Betsy Johnson showed her,
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_02: her poll had her getting 20 points,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: 23 points,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_02: and then she fell right down to where Reagan
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_02: and I said she'd fall somewhere around 9%,
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_02: and with $20 million later, I just feel like most people will end up going.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_02: That's why I even think that Brett Smith guy,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think he almost even hurts Drazen as much as he hurts Tina.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think that he's kind of a, you know, looks like a pretty masculine dude.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_02: Like I think some people look at him on the,
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_02: they don't look at, people don't know Pacific Green, this, that.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_02: They have no idea.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_02: They'll say, oh, he's the only guy in the race and they vote for him.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_02: Like there's so many,
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_02: but I think that's still going to fall down to I think maybe,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_02: maybe he gets 4%, but I don't think he quite gets 4%.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's a little less than that.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that,
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_02: but that binary option,
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_02: I think really hurts us in a state with a,
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_02: with a governor Kotech with low negative or high negatives.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_02: Like you want that binary option, I think.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_02: And I think losing that binary option is not good.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_02: I just want to see if Republicans can get above 43 and a half percent because
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_02: that seems to be our line, right?
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: And she was there in early September in those polls, right?
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: Like, yeah.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like, okay, is this the crest or could we keep getting higher?
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think, I mean,
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_01: demographics,
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_01: it's a tough sell on the state level for you guys to win and
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_02: And we've always shown,
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_02: don't you?
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you go back on enough.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_02: You can always find a Republican governor's poll in September that shows us up four or five.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_02: New Bueller was up.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_02: I feel like Drazen had polls in September and 22 that showed her up, right?
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_02: I just feel like this happens every cycle where there's a couple of polls
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_02: that show it close and then it just gets to here and it just starts kind of
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_02: Because we can't,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think our floor and ceiling is just so close to each other
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_02: that we just can't really find that room to grow.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_02: And that's really what, that's what concerns me most about the governor's race.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_02: And then,
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_02: especially in a Trump third term or whatever the hell we're calling this,
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_02: a third midterm.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_02: But I think it's very difficult for us to find that seal, like to raise our ceiling.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_02: And that's kind of what we need to do statewide.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know if, And it's nothing, I think Drazen's run a good campaign.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_02: I just don't know if there's enough people in this environment,
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_02: this political environment that's willing to risk it.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: One, I think,
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: some of the trends you saw in 24 of like unaffiliated and NAVs moving
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_01: in your guys direction, you know, Hispanic voters.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: Working class white voters, like they seem to be shifting back.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like you've got kind of the next wave of what, what Trump was able to do in 24.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's like all those voters are flipping back.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think, I think it is, it's a tough cycle and you're right.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_01: Even in a good cycle, it's a tough one.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think Chris Dudley was probably the closest one in recent memory.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: And the state's changed a lot in 16 years.
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and we had a, well, and that was a surprisingly good year for Republicans.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_02: I think nobody really saw the undercurrent in 2010.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think most people were focused on the, well, cost of living, right?
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that was right after the huge downturn and Obama, you know, suffered that for sure.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_02: And the Democrats in 2010 and then kind of snapped back and then 14 was
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_02: a really good, you know, the second
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: midterm for Obama.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then, yeah, then here we are.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_02: But Yeah, we'll see.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_02: Well, let's get into legislative races, huh, Reagan?
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: What do you think?
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_00: I totally agree, Bryan.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: Are you good for me to sort of start us off?
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_00: Because I have a thought process.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_00: You go, brother.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, Jake,
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_00: what I'm thinking is for our listeners, right,
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_00: you get that first report and it's supposed to happen at 8
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: and it usually happens like 8.05 and we're all like going insane
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: for five minutes trying to reload and...
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_00: Break all the computers at different county elections and state elections.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_00: But what I want to do is sort of go from the like perceived safe all the way to
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_00: the like perceived safe on the Republican side,
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: starting with the Democrat side, so that if we look at a particular Republican.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_00: We might be able to see how the night is going based on first results in these various races.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so I'm going to take us all the way from what I would call in the safer
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: or heavy lean Democratic.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: We don't really have safe Dem.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of those seasons are uncontested.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: They're not going to get contestable.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to go lean Dem all the way through to swing and then lean R.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_00: So the first seat that I kind of think are the first place.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_00: Is essentially Clackamas.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_00: And you've got the House District 40 with Michael Sugar and Adam Baker.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_00: Baker ran in 2022 when this was an incredibly close contest.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: 183 votes, Bryan?
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: With Vanessa Hartman.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_00: 181 votes.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then two years later,
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_00: this district is an absolute, I mean, relative to the previous, a blowout.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: And and so, you know, Clackamas went a lot more blue in 2024 than it had gone in 2022.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think Clackamas is the first place you go when you go to this race
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_00: and you say,
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think my guess is Dems feel pretty good about this race now, but maybe I'm wrong.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: This is the first place I go to see how are Dems doing in a place they're,
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think, expecting to win.
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_00: Is that right, Jake?
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think so.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: One, I feel I looked at ORSTAR today.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: I was like, wait, where's all the money in this race?
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like you look at the other target races, you know, what did I have?
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Adam's only gotten $66,000.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_01: Other races.
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: your team seems to have kind of written this one off and the Ds,
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_01: you know, have raised some, but it's not compared to the other target districts.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, it's, you know, this is Gladstone.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_01: It's working class white folks, but more and more turning blue.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I think This is kind of the, yeah,
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: to your point,
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_01: if things go wrong here,
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_01: then things have gone wrong in a lot of places for the Democrats.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_02: I see how it is.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Adam Baker's a client.
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, Jake.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for writing him off.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate that.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, where's your money, man?
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I mean,
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_02: I know a third-party candidate that's in pictures with Ron Wyden and stuff
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_02: on his website,
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_02: like, you know, I had a plan, but there's no money, I guess, left to go.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_02: So, uh, and our polling, you know, the polling in this one was kind of interesting.
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_02: We ended up in the same spot where we were in 2022,
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_02: with a benchmark poll and stuff is,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_02: is Adam,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_02: plus five R and, uh, Just the caucus leadership didn't want to invest in it.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, definitely the generic was down where it was, but Drazen was winning the district.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean,
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_02: you've got to assume that we have left to go in the tank there,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_02: and they decided they didn't want to.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, we'll see.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think this one's going to be a lot closer.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_02: I think a lot of people know Adam Baker.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_02: I think a lot of those people voted for him before.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_02: I think his profile matches, three dudes.
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean, two of them are bald.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe the young guy wins because of that.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe a good test, though, of an unfunded race and how it performs versus funded races.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_01: Totally.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: Let's not forget,
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: there's a heck of a lot of public union members who are in Portland who need
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: a district to knock, and that's, you know, strong throw away.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: Don't need
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: you there.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_02: Stay home, Democrats.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_00: They're definitely listening to Crosstabs for their political strategy, Bryan.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: And then the other place to look, obviously, is Meek and Michelle Stroh.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: Meek's got not only the back.
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_00: That he did from Democrats four years ago.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_00: But now I think he generally has backing from a lot of
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_00: the we'll call it business lobby who see him as a as a voice of reason in
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_00: the Democratic caucus.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: And so, again,
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_00: that race is not a funded race that that I'm aware of unless there's resources going
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_00: into it literally this minute.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_00: But another place to look and see how's Clackamas performing,
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: how are the like The potential swing district,
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_00: or the potential competitiveness is there,
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_00: but without Republicans not having the incumbent Kenimer there,
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_00: it makes it a much harder lift, obviously.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Kenimer was a real strong candidate.
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_01: I've said great connection.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah,
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: to your point, I mean,
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_01: with Janine knocked out in the primary,
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: it's Mark and maybe one other Democrat in the Senate that's a swingable vote.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: And so he's very attracted to the lobby,
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_01: just because they know We're probably going to keep the majority there and they need
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: to have some Democrats who are willing to cross their party on votes
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_01: and he's it right now.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_02: Well, maybe not votes.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_02: He never really crosses the line.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_02: He comes to it and then he... Yeah,
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_01: it never gets to that point.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: He just kind of gives the thumbs down and suddenly things go away.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: So the next place I want to go is actually kind of pivot more into Senate focus
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_00: because I actually want,
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_00: Jake, I have my thought about where these races are, but I want your feedback first.
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_00: How would you rate if you have to do swing or you have to do lean either way?
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_00: Senate District 11, that kind of Salem, Kaiser, Woodburn, Senate District.
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_00: Where are you putting that today?
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think that one's a toss-up.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kim Thatcher had really good name ID and recognition.
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_01: I know when she...
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_01: She got moved into that district.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_01: There's kind of a question because it got much more blue,
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know, but and once Peter Courtney, you know, was gone, it opened opportunity.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: I just it'll be interesting to see.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_01: I do think,
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_01: that's a pretty significant Latino population when you think about kind of
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_01: the Salem plus Woodburn contingent.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean, there's been literally raids at North Pack in the last few weeks.
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_01: So I think,
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: that constituency is going to be pretty left leaning and blue leaning this cycle.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_01: But it's definitely, you know, the Democrats are hoping to pick it up.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_01: Virginia's definitely run hard.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_01: I know she ran pretty hard last time, but unsuccessfully.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: So but she has some name ID in the Salem half of the district.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, you guys seem to have a way of kind of holding on to that one.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: And there's enough rural voters along that kind of Marion corridor.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's necessarily anyone's game at this point.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_01: It seems pretty toss up to me.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: Stapleton at about a million raised and Kramer 1.7.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we always tend to spend more in these races.
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think the Democrats are better at hiding it.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the hard part is on this one.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think this is a D plus five district voter reg number wise.
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_02: And like, that just, it just, uh, that scares me, man.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_02: Like when you have a, you have a five point lead starting out of the box.
• 41:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's not a,
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: in the Trump midterm,
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_02: that's not exactly where you want to be, uh, starting five points behind.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_02: So the immigration stuff's going to be interesting.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_02: the HD22 side of this,
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_02: I think the Kaiser side, the Manix side of this seat just will...
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_02: Perform like it normally has.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_02: I think the Mannix one is to be closer.
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_02: I think he ekes it out barely,
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_02: but I think it's a problem for Tracy because she's more known on the 22 side,
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_02: which is going more left.
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_02: So it's a toss-up.
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_02: And I agree.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_02: I think this is...
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_02: Iverson, bryangiverson, crosstabs, reaganknopp.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_02: 17 John Braun ads.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_02: And if Marie exclusive camp Perez.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_02: And then there's like two Virginia Stapletons and,
• 42:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know, to Tracy Kramer's like they can't get above the noise.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_02: And, but they're just spending tons
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_01: of cash where it's going to be a get out the vote effort.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's not that many voters.
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it also is kind of an extension.
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_01: You think about kind of the suburbanization outside of Portland,
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_01: like first the D's kind of,
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: Took over Washington County,
• 43:20
  SPEAKER_01: as you pointed out, they're more and more taken over Clackamas County.
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_01: And now all that development is getting pushed down to Woodburn, etc.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_01: But in these subdivisions, on balance, those are voting more blue than red.
• 43:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that's also part of the factor is Marion County is kind of
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: a new battleground as the demographics are shifting and more and more people want
• 43:41
  SPEAKER_01: to work in Portland but don't want to live there.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_02: Yamhill too, I would say.
• 43:45
  SPEAKER_02: Yamhill's probably next time.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like that's a little farther behind, but yeah, I think you're right.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's the next, that's the other one that's going to be pretty.
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_00: So what about, and would you put the Mannix seat in the same category?
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's got a slightly stronger profile,
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: but if there's a year that you're going to beat Mannix,
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_00: it would be in a potential blue wave midterm election like this with the Republican
• 44:12
  SPEAKER_00: in the White House, right?
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's how high does the tide come this time?
• 44:17
  SPEAKER_01: And he's about as strong a candidate as you guys could run in that district.
• 44:21
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously got a huge name ID, has beaten back a bunch of temps to try and take it.
• 44:26
  SPEAKER_01: And it's kind of like that HD52 seat out in Hood River.
• 44:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's like in the right cycle, the Democrats pick it up.
• 44:33
  SPEAKER_01: And is this one where it finally happens?
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I think...
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_01: Odds are probably in his favor, but real tight, you know, maybe 52, 48 or something like that.
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll see.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's not tighter.
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_00: And so with these, is it?
• 44:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 44:54
  SPEAKER_00: And so these ones,
• 44:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think, right,
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_00: like Brian's saying,
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_00: it's going to come down to get out the vote because that's when
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_00: the Kramer seat was up two years ago.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's what it came down to at the end of the day was.
• 45:05
  SPEAKER_00: Those last ballots or that last effort that got put forward to push Munoz over the edge.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that like if that if they're going to be Mannix,
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_00: if the Democrats beat Mannix,
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_00: it's going to be on something like that where it's probably not going to be big.
• 45:19
  SPEAKER_00: So if you see big margins,
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_00: if Democrats are up by big margins in this district,
• 45:23
  SPEAKER_00: now you know that Republicans are in some trouble, in some serious trouble.
• 45:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I would agree.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_00: What about Southern Oregon?
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have any close house races,
• 45:37
  SPEAKER_00: but we do have a Senate race that's supposed to be an exciting contest
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_00: between really between three.
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Denise Krause,
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrat,
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_00: Brad Hicks, the Republican and Clay Beerson, the progressive Pacific Green.
• 45:51
  SPEAKER_00: I can't remember what his tag is.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on.
• 45:53
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what party label he's running under.
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's the bar owner.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_00: Where would you put that?
• 45:59
  SPEAKER_01: Would you put that lean Democrat or would you put that toss up?
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_01: I would say wild card.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'd make its own little category.
• 46:04
  SPEAKER_01: I just feel like there's so many funky dynamics to that district.
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_01: And you guys probably remember like this is the seat that Alan DeBoer won in 2016
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_01: against Tonya Morrow.
• 46:18
  SPEAKER_01: And there's been some similarities.
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_01: Like, you know, you remember, because that was Alan Bates' seat forever.
• 46:25
  SPEAKER_01: And then when he died, the Dems put up Tonya.
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: And then the statewide Democrats were going really aggressive against Alan.
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_01: And like his widow wrote LTE to the paper and was like,
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_01: this is not what Alan would want for this seat.
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_01: And similarly, you know, Jeff Golden...
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_01: Basically said in March, I'm not running.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_01: So it's been late breaking and he's refused to endure it.
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he had his own kind of candidate in the primary and has refused to endorse there.
• 46:51
  SPEAKER_01: So the incumbent is not taking position.
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_01: So it's just,
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_01: it's a little,
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, and I talked to the local people down there, like, yeah, absolutely.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_01: You guys don't get us.
• 47:00
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's, it's a different world down here.
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: So that's one where I just,
• 47:03
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like I,
• 47:03
  SPEAKER_01: there's tons of money coming in,
• 47:06
  SPEAKER_01: but I don't even know if it's necessarily going to match the rest of how
• 47:09
  SPEAKER_01: the state plays out.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_01: Cause there's just a lot of local dynamics.
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_00: And wild numbers, $1.2 million for Denise Krause, $2.1 million for Brad Hicks.
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, wild numbers.
• 47:21
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know, Brian, what was the biggest spin in 2022?
• 47:24
  SPEAKER_00: What was the most expensive Senate race?
• 47:26
  SPEAKER_00: And if this breaks that record.
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_02: Mark Meek spent over $3 million.
• 47:31
  SPEAKER_02: Oh my goodness.
• 47:34
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, huge late money came in.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_02: I think we were over five total in that.
• 47:39
  SPEAKER_02: Between the two of them.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_02: But you had Portland Media.
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_02: That's where I don't understand again with this one with like Hicks' spend and stuff.
• 47:46
  SPEAKER_02: You can buy a thousand points down there for like 200 grand.
• 47:49
  SPEAKER_02: Like I just find it like it seems very like media down there is pretty cheap.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_02: And so I just feel like like the overspending is just enormous because in 22,
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_02: we only spent a million.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_02: Down there on Sparacino.
• 48:08
  SPEAKER_02: And then the hardest thing, and I've ran these numbers, and I like Brad.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_02: We tried to get Brad to run in 22, and then he didn't.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_02: And then Randy ended up running,
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_02: and then Randy ended up running in 24 and won the county commissioner seat.
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_02: So it was a good, I'd say, I mean, he tripled his salary by running in 24.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_02: So that's probably better for him than a state senator seat.
• 48:31
  SPEAKER_02: The problem I have with his seat Is Randy got the almost the exact number of votes
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_02: in the precincts in the Senate seat for his commissioner race.
• 48:41
  SPEAKER_02: He lost by twenty five hundred and he basically lost by twenty five hundred in
• 48:45
  SPEAKER_02: the commissioner vote.
• 48:46
  SPEAKER_02: Trump lost this district by nine thousand votes in twenty four.
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_02: So that's my biggest concern is like they're not really a Trump.
• 48:58
  SPEAKER_02: It's not a Trump district.
• 48:59
  SPEAKER_02: The Ashland people, there's 16,000 votes going to the left, regardless of what happens, right?
• 49:06
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, they always vote in block hard left,
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_02: except for maybe the exception of Alan DeBoer,
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_02: got an extra like six or 700 more votes out of those two precincts in Ashland.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_02: And so...
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_02: I just, man, I just, I have a seat.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_02: I'm with you.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_02: Wild card is, I think Hicks could win by eight and he could lose by eight, I think.
• 49:27
  SPEAKER_02: And it could be wildly close.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know how the third party candidate plays into this race, but I got a feeling.
• 49:36
  SPEAKER_02: He's going to matter.
• 49:37
  SPEAKER_02: So if he siphons off enough votes out of Ashland or Jacksonville,
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_02: some of those kind of further left,
• 49:45
  SPEAKER_02: very environmentally focused areas,
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think that maybe there's some opportunity for Hicks to pull it out.
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_02: But the third party, I don't know if there's an IE going on down there.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_02: I haven't seen anything.
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if you guys have seen anything,
• 50:00
  SPEAKER_02: but I haven't seen or heard of mailers or anything like that,
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_02: trying to prop up the third-party guy yet.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_02: It's going to be a good one.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 50:11
  SPEAKER_02: The polling I've seen, I've heard it's been just neck and neck.
• 50:16
  SPEAKER_00: He did spend a $2 on Wix.com, Bryan.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know if that'll show up in the,
• 50:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just looking,
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm using Preston and State of the Race app and it shows the last 10 expenditures
• 50:26
  SPEAKER_00: in Wix.com for $2 is one of them.
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_00: So he's running an efficient campaign on the website of things.
• 50:33
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah.
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_01: So we put Southern Oregon, Southern Oregon is his own special box.
• 50:38
  SPEAKER_02: If I can, I'll just give you guys credit.
• 50:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's a pretty middle of the road, mainstream candidate that was recruited.
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_01: Chamber of Commerce, CEO, not a firebrand.
• 50:47
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're trying to differentiate from Trump and kind of the MAGA world,
• 50:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think he doesn't look as scary, but we'll see.
• 50:57
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_02: And Brad's been the guy I think we've all wanted to run down there forever.
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_02: So I think,
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_02: he finally stepped up when the timing was right for him,
• 51:06
  SPEAKER_02: you know, in his personal life.
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that, yeah, and he raised a lot of money locally to start with.
• 51:11
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, he's done a really good job.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_02: And I think he's run a race.
• 51:16
  SPEAKER_02: It's just what,
• 51:16
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_02: can the electorate just break away from that TDS mentality right now
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_02: that they just can't.
• 51:25
  SPEAKER_02: Move away from that.
• 51:25
  SPEAKER_02: And things are different in Southern Oregon, there's no doubt.
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, and you ask anybody from Southern Oregon, Jake, they'll tell you it's different though.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_01: Every time I visit there in Miami.
• 51:36
  SPEAKER_02: The one thing they have in common between the D's and the R's down there.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_01: You don't get us.
• 51:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right.
• 51:43
  SPEAKER_01: We don't get the fair shake in Salem.
• 51:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I hear it.
• 51:46
  SPEAKER_00: So what about what about Hood River?
• 51:48
  SPEAKER_00: Because I think this is one of those seats that's gone back and forth.
• 51:53
  SPEAKER_00: One that's been, you know, Mark Johnson held it for a long time.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_00: Helfrich won it once, lost it once, won it again, something like that.
• 52:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's appointed lost it, won it, something like that.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 52:06
  SPEAKER_00: And now it's open, right?
• 52:08
  SPEAKER_00: And you have probably as two different candidates as you could possibly get.
• 52:13
  SPEAKER_00: You've got an old politics Wasco commissioner who's done data center deals
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_00: and is defending them in his Willamette Week interview.
• 52:22
  SPEAKER_00: And he did so pretty ably, I thought.
• 52:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't have...
• 52:26
  SPEAKER_00: I have a pro I probably have a pro data center bias,
• 52:29
  SPEAKER_00: despite things that I've said on the podcast
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_00: that make people believe I'm anti data center.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just dealing with political reality.
• 52:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then Hank Sanders,
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_00: who is who is young,
• 52:39
  SPEAKER_00: has a journalist background,
• 52:41
  SPEAKER_00: obviously Democrat,
• 52:42
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 52:43
  SPEAKER_00: has has a lot of,
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_00: that young energy that goes with him and is running on an overtly anti data center
• 52:50
  SPEAKER_00: or or at least significant curtailment of data centers.
• 52:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 52:55
  SPEAKER_00: And does so in his interview with Willamette Week.
• 52:58
  SPEAKER_00: So what is what's the feeling about this race?
• 53:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is this race a toss up?
• 53:03
  SPEAKER_00: You have a pretty lopsided spend with Republicans nearing the million dollar mark.
• 53:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if the Democratic money is outside or
• 53:12
  SPEAKER_00: if he's just got got less money because he doesn't need it because
• 53:15
  SPEAKER_00: the district leans more Democrat than some of these other districts you've talked
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_00: about.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, what's your feel here?
• 53:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, he was.
• 53:23
  SPEAKER_01: Hank was impressive when he won the primary in the way he did.
• 53:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_01: And we've been doing some local work in Hood River and the vibe and
• 53:30
  SPEAKER_01: the feedback is he's a hard worker.
• 53:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like he was out there.
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, when you're 25 and you're like, this is my life, there are no distractions.
• 53:39
  SPEAKER_01: So you can be 100% committed to this.
• 53:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that's clearly, I think, been his strength.
• 53:43
  SPEAKER_01: Also has some good connections and relationships that have helped him kind of build
• 53:48
  SPEAKER_01: a strong campaign.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah,
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think For whatever reason,
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_01: this does not seem to have been as high a priority for Democrats.
• 53:55
  SPEAKER_01: But it is a funky district.
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_01: You think about it,
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know, it goes all the way from the Dalles, basically the suburbs of Gresham.
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so, you know,
• 54:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think you also may see kind of an east-west split here where,
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know, Scott does really well in the Dalles area.
• 54:12
  SPEAKER_01: But then as you get closer to Portland, it's going to be more blue and Yeah.
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_01: My feeling is,
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: to your point,
• 54:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's going to kind of follow the cycle and that it's a very blue cycle.
• 54:22
  SPEAKER_01: And this will be one of these ones where we pick it up, but we could lose it again.
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't know.
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, like you say, it's, again, a strong Republican candidate.
• 54:29
  SPEAKER_01: And it's kind of like,
• 54:30
  SPEAKER_01: is this youth energy going to be enough to be there or are there going
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_01: to be enough older voters?
• 54:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's a fairly older affluent community when you think about it.
• 54:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Heggie at 1.1, Sanders at 525,000.
• 54:43
  SPEAKER_00: So he's getting out, it's been about...
• 54:47
  SPEAKER_00: Assuming all the money gets unloaded, gets outspent about two to one in the raw dollars.
• 54:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, obviously, there could be independent expenditures.
• 54:55
  SPEAKER_00: But in this last cycle,
• 54:57
  SPEAKER_00: there isn't necessarily a strong reason to do that,
• 54:59
  SPEAKER_00: except for the orgs that are on the Democratic side kind
• 55:02
  SPEAKER_00: of doing what they're already going to do,
• 55:05
  SPEAKER_00: which tends to be like more spending on manpower,
• 55:08
  SPEAKER_00: not really mail and media for the most part.
• 55:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Hage is a good candidate.
• 55:15
  SPEAKER_02: Like, again, I think he's like Brad Hicks.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I think he would be, you know, he's not trying to fire breathe and stuff like that.
• 55:22
  SPEAKER_02: He's been, you know, fairly normal.
• 55:24
  SPEAKER_02: County commissioners already,
• 55:26
  SPEAKER_02: already kind of tend to run a little more,
• 55:27
  SPEAKER_02: you know, centric focused, you know, just because of the nature of their jobs.
• 55:33
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that does make him, I think, a better candidate on paper.
• 55:38
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, Hank being a, You know, a young guy and stuff, I think.
• 55:43
  SPEAKER_02: But at the same time, I mean, a wave's a wave's a wave.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_02: So it's,
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_02: you got a D in front of your name instead of an R.
• 55:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think I'd rather have a D in front of my name if I was in an election in
• 55:56
  SPEAKER_02: that seat.
• 55:57
  SPEAKER_02: You know, that's, I just think that's the real reality.
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_02: And I was looking at, you guys will find this pretty interesting.
• 56:03
  SPEAKER_02: So I pulled all the registration numbers.
• 56:06
  SPEAKER_02: One of the things is if Non-affiliated voters
• 56:11
  SPEAKER_02: and independent voters are modeled like if they're a D plus 10,
• 56:15
  SPEAKER_02: like if they vote D plus 10 on that, we go to, in the Senate, we go to 2010.
• 56:24
  SPEAKER_02: If the Ds vote,
• 56:26
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 56:27
  SPEAKER_02: so they would pick up SD16 and it puts Helfrich underwater by like 600 votes in 26.
• 56:34
  SPEAKER_02: Ooh.
• 56:38
  SPEAKER_01: Colleen will love to hear that.
• 56:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 56:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think it's going to be interesting to see how many of your side turns out.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like there is kind of a big enthusiasm gap,
• 56:48
  SPEAKER_01: which could close in the next two weeks or it could not.
• 56:53
  SPEAKER_01: People just be like, I mean,
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't,
• 56:55
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think the fearless leader is doing you any favors in terms of being
• 56:59
  SPEAKER_01: on message and just kind of like stirring the pot, like this Putin stuff this week.
• 57:03
  SPEAKER_01: It just,
• 57:04
  SPEAKER_01: and also say like,
• 57:05
  SPEAKER_01: we haven't even talked about the shooting in Bend,
• 57:07
  SPEAKER_01: which I feel like is going to be a motivator for kind of Democratic leading women
• 57:12
  SPEAKER_01: in particular to turn out.
• 57:13
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think just in the turnout game,
• 57:17
  SPEAKER_01: it's going to be able to see if Republicans actually can show up or not.
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, D plus 10, but it goes 21-9.
• 57:23
  SPEAKER_02: Because if we use Luz Helfrich, that goes to 9.
• 57:29
  SPEAKER_02: C16 is 10.
• 57:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 57:32
  SPEAKER_00: And right now, just kind of looking at the data, I would say...
• 57:38
  SPEAKER_00: That seems a little heavy.
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_00: I would guess they remain a similar portion or percentage of the electorate
• 57:44
  SPEAKER_00: as they typically are.
• 57:45
  SPEAKER_00: I do think though,
• 57:46
  SPEAKER_00: like the worst case scenario I've essentially built in my head is we lose all
• 57:50
  SPEAKER_00: the swing races and a bunch of races that aren't supposed
• 57:53
  SPEAKER_00: to be close suddenly are close.
• 58:10
  SPEAKER_00: And it puts the House about 39-21 and the Senate at 1911,
• 58:14
  SPEAKER_00: basically losing the two swings that we have out there.
• 58:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's kind of what I've said as my baseline.
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_00: So if we're doing worse than that, it has all gone horribly wrong.
• 58:25
  SPEAKER_00: Republican turnout is probably down.
• 58:28
  SPEAKER_00: Independents and non-affiliators are going hard against Republicans.
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_00: And Democrat enthusiasm is through the roof.
• 58:36
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that – I did do some modeling on your turnout.
• 58:41
  SPEAKER_02: So if we go D plus 10, let's just say on actual people who vote, they say 41-19 in the House.
• 58:50
  SPEAKER_01: So that means we would lose, where is this, House districts?
• 58:55
  SPEAKER_02: Kim Wallen barely holds on in Medford by like 500 votes.
• 58:59
  SPEAKER_02: So who does that knock out?
• 59:01
  SPEAKER_02: Would that take Albany?
• 59:02
  SPEAKER_02: Shelly Bosart Davis gets knocked out.
• 59:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I think those numbers are you should try.
• 59:08
  SPEAKER_00: I would run it again based on actual previous like data on elections,
• 59:14
  SPEAKER_00: because those seats, while registration wise are close.
• 59:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think Harvick blew out his last opponent pretty good.
• 59:19
  SPEAKER_00: Same with Shelly.
• 59:20
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 59:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think that purely on registration, those are the next closest seats.
• 59:26
  SPEAKER_00: But I have a hard time.
• 59:29
  SPEAKER_02: Darcy Edwards and also Elmer McMinnville.
• 59:33
  SPEAKER_02: So those two.
• 59:35
  SPEAKER_02: Those are next on the list, basically, right?
• 59:37
  SPEAKER_02: When you get down to that area.
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_02: But I think D plus five is probably more of the model.
• 59:45
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's kind of.
• 59:47
  SPEAKER_00: I would be in the five to seven, eight range.
• 59:50
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think that those are all pretty reasonable.
• 59:52
  SPEAKER_00: If it's gone beyond that, I mean, we are Republicans are in a really bad spot.
• 59:57
  SPEAKER_00: And Democrats are looking at referring constitutional amendments and stuff like that.
• 1:00:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it starts to get really interesting really fast.
• 1:00:08
  SPEAKER_00: And so, I mean, we'll see.
• 1:00:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of where I wanted to take us to because I think,
• 1:00:14
  SPEAKER_00: and I'm trying to find where I put my notes.
• 1:00:17
  SPEAKER_00: And by notes, I just mean our group text.
• 1:00:20
  SPEAKER_00: Because you were talking about the last race that we haven't talked about.
• 1:00:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I guess we just did Sanders versus Hagee.
• 1:00:28
  SPEAKER_00: So on the coast is the place where you look and you go, Republicans are supposed to be fine.
• 1:00:34
  SPEAKER_00: And if those seats are close,
• 1:00:37
  SPEAKER_00: that is that's like sound the alarm because the the blue tsunami will hit not just
• 1:00:44
  SPEAKER_00: the rest of the state, but it hits the coast, which is probably a special.
• 1:00:50
  SPEAKER_00: Probably not the exact terminology they would like me using over there
• 1:00:53
  SPEAKER_00: because they are concerned with actual literal tsunamis.
• 1:00:56
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know,
• 1:00:57
  SPEAKER_00: the coast is a place where we've pretty much except for Gomberg's district, right?
• 1:01:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's all red now.
• 1:01:04
  SPEAKER_00: And Javity being the kind of the competitive seat that we haven't talked about yet.
• 1:01:08
  SPEAKER_00: Is the sense on the Democratic side that Javity is going to be OK or that it's
• 1:01:12
  SPEAKER_00: a lean blue situation?
• 1:01:14
  SPEAKER_00: Or do they still have that in the toss up the toss up column as well, you think?
• 1:01:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think they feel cautiously optimistic just because of kind of a crossover appeal
• 1:01:24
  SPEAKER_01: that there's still going to be some Republicans that give them the benefit of
• 1:01:27
  SPEAKER_01: the doubt.
• 1:01:29
  SPEAKER_01: The Senate seats, the more interesting one to me.
• 1:01:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think Democrats are hopeful.
• 1:01:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be particular to see if Columbia County flips back.
• 1:01:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's one that I was like, it's not coming back.
• 1:01:41
  SPEAKER_01: But if it does, I think that seat is very winnable for the Democrats.
• 1:01:46
  SPEAKER_00: You're talking about Courtney Banks versus Rachel Armitage.
• 1:01:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 1:01:51
  SPEAKER_02: And at a D plus five, Reagan, they have, it flips back to the Ds by 2,000 votes.
• 1:01:59
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 1:02:00
  SPEAKER_02: So you don't even need a D plus five margin in the ABAs.
• 1:02:03
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's just, you only need a D plus three, and then you've got a toss-up.
• 1:02:08
  SPEAKER_02: And I would assume we're at a D plus three.
• 1:02:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, and that's what I wondered,
• 1:02:10
  SPEAKER_02: because Banks is a
• 1:02:11
  SPEAKER_00: half a million now, and Armitage has just passed 100.
• 1:02:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I was starting to wonder if this seed is...
• 1:02:17
  SPEAKER_00: Coming onto the radar,
• 1:02:18
  SPEAKER_00: as you see nationally,
• 1:02:19
  SPEAKER_00: a bunch of deep red seats start to become competitive,
• 1:02:22
  SPEAKER_00: at least in internal polling on both sides.
• 1:02:24
  SPEAKER_00: They start to spend money there.
• 1:02:25
  SPEAKER_00: Is that is that what we think is happening here?
• 1:02:28
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
• 1:02:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 1:02:29
  SPEAKER_01: I've always felt like those districts are kind of the Democrats that used to be in
• 1:02:34
  SPEAKER_01: the timber unions and other kind of like working in the woods and on the water that,
• 1:02:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:02:40
  SPEAKER_01: back in the 60s and 70s,
• 1:02:41
  SPEAKER_01: those were labor jobs and they're just Culturally,
• 1:02:43
  SPEAKER_01: those voters are really hard for us to win now.
• 1:02:46
  SPEAKER_01: They just are not feeling the Portland vibes.
• 1:02:52
  SPEAKER_01: But when they're filling out their truck with Giesel and paying,
• 1:02:55
  SPEAKER_01: what, $6.50 at the pump, they might change their tune.
• 1:03:00
  SPEAKER_00: And if they assign that blame Republicans all the way down, that's a problem.
• 1:03:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the only way.
• 1:03:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's like maybe the culture doesn't shift, but in this moment in time, they're gettable.
• 1:03:11
  SPEAKER_00: In another election cycle where two years from now they won't be
• 1:03:13
  SPEAKER_00: or two years ago they weren't, but they are now, right?
• 1:03:16
  SPEAKER_00: And it could totally be one of those one-off type of situations.
• 1:03:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Tiffany Mitchell type such, yeah.
• 1:03:24
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, exactly.
• 1:03:26
  SPEAKER_02: I'm afraid that what might happen there, maybe,
• 1:03:28
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if the D's can get those people back culturally speaking,
• 1:03:31
  SPEAKER_02: but I think they may just stay home.
• 1:03:33
  SPEAKER_02: It's a really hard district to like bow harvest out of and stuff because it's just,
• 1:03:40
  SPEAKER_02: right, it's spread out all over the place.
• 1:03:42
  SPEAKER_02: So it's very difficult that way.
• 1:03:43
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:03:44
  SPEAKER_02: Getting those people to turn in their ballots or whatever.
• 1:03:46
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, they may just be like, you know, fuck it.
• 1:03:48
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just not going to even worry about it.
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_02: And those were maybe our voters.
• 1:03:52
  SPEAKER_02: And that's really, this could be a surprise district.
• 1:03:54
  SPEAKER_02: I would not.
• 1:03:55
  SPEAKER_02: I know the polling has looked okay for Courtney Bangs in this one,
• 1:03:59
  SPEAKER_02: but I would not rest on my laurels.
• 1:04:01
  SPEAKER_02: That's for sure.
• 1:04:01
  SPEAKER_02: Not in this environment, I would be.
• 1:04:04
  SPEAKER_00: And a half a million, I would say they are.
• 1:04:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty clear they're spending what they think is necessary to hold it.
• 1:04:11
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's going to require more money.
• 1:04:13
  SPEAKER_02: I did make her spend a bunch of money in the primary,
• 1:04:15
  SPEAKER_02: so I guess I'm a little bit at fault there.
• 1:04:20
  SPEAKER_00: Fair.
• 1:04:21
  SPEAKER_00: I forget about the primary spending in that one, too.
• 1:04:24
  SPEAKER_00: That is contributing to some of it.
• 1:04:26
  SPEAKER_02: It's almost half the money.
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:04:28
  SPEAKER_02: So she hasn't really raised a whole bunch since then, if you really look at it.
• 1:04:33
  SPEAKER_02: If you look at the equity in spending, it really isn't.
• 1:04:35
  SPEAKER_02: It's maybe two to one, two and a half to one.
• 1:04:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that's, you know, the primary probably helps Courtney a little bit though.
• 1:04:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, just,
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_02: being active and being out there during a primary with a,
• 1:04:47
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:04:47
  SPEAKER_02: three people on the ballot, that probably helps a little bit, but I would agree.
• 1:04:51
  SPEAKER_02: I would, I'm with Jake
• 1:04:52
  SPEAKER_01: on this one.
• 1:04:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'd be scared.
• 1:04:53
  SPEAKER_01: Give me a fun evening.
• 1:04:54
  SPEAKER_01: And actually I'll be out in Seaside at the transit association conference.
• 1:04:58
  SPEAKER_01: So.
• 1:04:59
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
• 1:04:59
  SPEAKER_01: The whole mix of people watching me go down.
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_01: They have buses out there.
• 1:05:05
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
• 1:05:09
  SPEAKER_01: This is why we got to get the transportation package done.
• 1:05:12
  SPEAKER_01: There's all these parts of the state that have got rideshare and all this other
• 1:05:15
  SPEAKER_02: great stuff.
• 1:05:17
  SPEAKER_02: Rideshare.
• 1:05:18
  SPEAKER_02: Why don't we just get a bunch of like cars that Elon will make for us
• 1:05:23
  SPEAKER_02: and everybody can just ride in those, get where they want to go.
• 1:05:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's my deal.
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like,
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_01: I will accept the autonomous cars and hold my nose as long as we have
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_01: a great public transit system.
• 1:05:34
  SPEAKER_00: Waymo forever.
• 1:05:35
  SPEAKER_01: Waymo plus an amazing public transit system sounds like a great solution.
• 1:05:39
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, plus.
• 1:05:41
  SPEAKER_02: Why can't you get rid of the public transit?
• 1:05:43
  SPEAKER_02: Why can't we just all have Waymos?
• 1:05:45
  SPEAKER_00: Because it doesn't work for everybody.
• 1:05:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's too inefficient,
• 1:05:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 1:05:49
  SPEAKER_00: as part of the thought process and doesn't feel,
• 1:05:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think it doesn't feel as democratized Now the problem,
• 1:05:57
  SPEAKER_00: and this is not a public transit podcast and we're not getting into it,
• 1:06:00
  SPEAKER_00: but the subsidization is basically
• 1:06:02
  SPEAKER_00: the only thing keeping these transit agencies afloat.
• 1:06:06
  SPEAKER_00: If the subsidization drops...
• 1:06:08
  SPEAKER_00: To the point that and is dropping like it is, they can't afford to operate.
• 1:06:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so it has to be subsidized.
• 1:06:14
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:06:14
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's the whole point of why they're there.
• 1:06:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's part of the whole piece that goes into the transportation package
• 1:06:20
  SPEAKER_00: and why Democrats defend it is because if you don't subsidize it,
• 1:06:24
  SPEAKER_00: it immediately it almost all falls apart.
• 1:06:28
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you are right.
• 1:06:28
  SPEAKER_01: A public service is not a for profit business.
• 1:06:31
  SPEAKER_01: You got me there.
• 1:06:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, but there are people who want to use it.
• 1:06:37
  SPEAKER_00: Some of them are charging.
• 1:06:39
  SPEAKER_00: Next podcast, post-election.
• 1:06:40
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's great.
• 1:06:41
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats have 40 votes and we're talking about universal free transit.
• 1:06:44
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about this.
• 1:06:47
  SPEAKER_02: That's the only way you get somebody to ride it is to give it to them for free.
• 1:06:50
  SPEAKER_02: What are you talking about?
• 1:06:51
  SPEAKER_02: I go to every PlayStation game
• 1:06:53
  SPEAKER_01: on Macs and I love it.
• 1:06:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in and out of there like that.
• 1:06:57
  SPEAKER_01: Monday, like we took off.
• 1:06:58
  SPEAKER_01: Don't put you in jail for fair evasion.
• 1:07:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's already publicly funded.
• 1:07:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's on my phone.
• 1:07:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I wish we had it like Europe where you just swipe your credit card and go,
• 1:07:07
  SPEAKER_01: but it's still pretty easy.
• 1:07:09
  SPEAKER_01: And like for Columbus Day or Independent Indigenous People's Day,
• 1:07:14
  SPEAKER_01: everyone else had to work and go to school.
• 1:07:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I was like, I'm going to the Blazer game.
• 1:07:17
  SPEAKER_01: And I went and watched them play London.
• 1:07:18
  SPEAKER_01: It was great.
• 1:07:19
  SPEAKER_01: It was fun.
• 1:07:22
  SPEAKER_02: No, I think around the core, it makes sense.
• 1:07:24
  SPEAKER_02: But then when they try to create all these lines that go out and we can have this,
• 1:07:27
  SPEAKER_02: we should,
• 1:07:28
  SPEAKER_02: this will be a fun discussion to have,
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think with transportation and transit and kind of like, where does that go?
• 1:07:33
  SPEAKER_02: Because it is, it does, I'm not against transit.
• 1:07:37
  SPEAKER_02: You would think if you follow my next account that I hate it,
• 1:07:39
  SPEAKER_02: but I, I think what I, I just think it just the scope creep of it gets too broad.
• 1:07:45
  SPEAKER_02: Like, cause if the goal on,
• 1:07:46
  SPEAKER_02: on certain transit,
• 1:07:47
  SPEAKER_02: like I think buses are just like,
• 1:07:49
  SPEAKER_02: cause you can't get on a, If I'm going to work has changed, right?
• 1:07:55
  SPEAKER_02: I don't get up in this neighborhood,
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_02: go get on a bus and go to a factory, build a product and come back home, right?
• 1:08:01
  SPEAKER_02: That's kind of how these systems are normally built was a lot of people going
• 1:08:05
  SPEAKER_02: to downtown and then people going home, right?
• 1:08:08
  SPEAKER_02: I just think that the work has just changed a lot where, I mean, you work from home.
• 1:08:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I'm in home now.
• 1:08:14
  SPEAKER_02: I have an office in Prineville, but I'm in Salem sometimes.
• 1:08:18
  SPEAKER_02: You know, you probably got meetings all over the place too.
• 1:08:20
  SPEAKER_02: So the reality of how we work is just changed to where the bus system or
• 1:08:26
  SPEAKER_02: the treatment system just doesn't work for many of those people that used it
• 1:08:30
  SPEAKER_02: when they originally built it.
• 1:08:32
  SPEAKER_02: So I just think we see this change.
• 1:08:35
  SPEAKER_02: Kind of long erosion of just,
• 1:08:37
  SPEAKER_02: it just doesn't fit in my everyday lifestyle to get where I need to get to.
• 1:08:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and I think it is going to change because technology is going to change.
• 1:08:48
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I mean, I'd love to not have to drive my car.
• 1:08:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'd rather just get in it and have it go there and I get to do other stuff
• 1:08:53
  SPEAKER_01: while it's getting there.
• 1:08:54
  SPEAKER_01: I just think part of the conversation is that,
• 1:08:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:08:57
  SPEAKER_01: we can't have that volume of cars on the road and we're going to have to have
• 1:09:00
  SPEAKER_01: a layered solution.
• 1:09:01
  SPEAKER_01: But you know what?
• 1:09:01
  SPEAKER_01: You guys are going to have six fun months to work this out next year.
• 1:09:05
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking forward to that.
• 1:09:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we'll see.
• 1:09:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, if it's a Jake,
• 1:09:11
  SPEAKER_02: if it's 4119,
• 1:09:13
  SPEAKER_02: we'll just have to just sit there with popcorn because you can't do anything at
• 1:09:16
  SPEAKER_02: that point because you can't even walk out.
• 1:09:18
  SPEAKER_02: They'd be like, oh, we're the Republicans here.
• 1:09:21
  SPEAKER_02: I didn't even see anybody.
• 1:09:22
  SPEAKER_02: Have you seen anybody today?
• 1:09:25
  SPEAKER_01: Until the DSA caucus takes over, and then it's a whole other drama, but to
• 1:09:30
  SPEAKER_02: be continued.
• 1:09:31
  SPEAKER_02: Well, let's have you back after the election.
• 1:09:33
  SPEAKER_02: We'll do a quick one and do a recap and see maybe what surprised us,
• 1:09:36
  SPEAKER_02: what did us, but appreciate having you on.
• 1:09:39
  SPEAKER_02: Reagan already left.
• 1:09:40
  SPEAKER_02: He's got to catch his, I think he's ride-sharing back to Albany.
• 1:09:44
  SPEAKER_02: There you go.
• 1:09:46
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, buddy.
• 1:09:47
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate your time.
• 1:09:48
  SPEAKER_02: It's good to see you, man.
• 1:09:49
  SPEAKER_02: Bye.
• 1:09:49
  SPEAKER_02: All right, see ya.