Latest / the Dr Gilbz pod / Ep.4 | It's never JUST weather | Laura Tobin

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Ep.4 | It's never JUST weather | Laura Tobin · the Dr Gilbz pod

• speaker-0: It's raining. well, at I have something to talk about. I'm here in rainy South West England today, which feels fitting because this week the podcast is about the nation's favourite conversation topic, the weather. Laura Tobin is one of the UK's favourite TV weather presenters, a meteorologist with over 20 years of experience forecasting for the Met Office, for the Armed Forces, and of course for broadcast TV. and most importantly, she loves the weather. She's presented The Weather on Good Morning Britain, one of the nation's biggest breakfast TV shows since it launched in 2014, and she has a devoted following across both broadcast and social media. And she's also published two books, one about easy ways to live a more sustainable life and another that has come out this week. I was super excited to talk to Laura because as well as being, you know, equally jazzed about clouds as I am, She's also a brilliant climate communicator and she has a huge impact by bringing climate information into her weather forecasts on TV. So let's meet Laura. speaker-1: My name is Laura Tobin and I'm a weather forecaster at ITV on Good Morning Britain. So it's a breakfast show and sometimes I wish I was on Good Lunchtime Britain because we have to get up at crazy o'clock in the morning, like 10 to four. The show starts at six and runs till 10. But I've been a weather forecaster for over 20 years. And actually when I was 14, and if you know this story, when I was 14, that's when I fell in love with weather. My geography teacher taught us about the jet stream. And he lined up the girls and the boys in a straight line. And he said, run across the classroom, pushing into each other and see what happens when you get to the other side. And by the time we got to the side, we in a wiggly line. And he was like, that is how the jet stream works. But it's the cold air in the Arctic meeting the warm air from the tropics. The two of them set a battleground and that is where weather fronts are and explaining that if it's north of us, then it's warm. If it's south of us, it's cold. And if it's honest, it's wet. And that day I was like. I love this. So I phoned the Met Office, the UK weather organization and said, how do I become a weather forecaster? And that was it. So I did all the right GCSEs, the right A levels, physics, maths. I went to the University of Reading, which is the top university in the UK for studying meteorology. And yeah, I graduated in 2003, which was 23 years ago now. Sometimes I forget how long I've been doing this. And yeah, and I've just had a such a variety of jobs and careers since then and, you know, the weather in particularly the UK is one of the biggest talking points and I get to talk about it every day. speaker-0: Has your love for the weather changed since you were 14 or has it just been pure passion ever since then and you just added extra bits of theory and knowledge? speaker-1: It grows all the time. And at the beginning, I just loved weather. I didn't know what job I was going to do, or I could tell you what job I didn't want to do, the job I'm doing now. As soon as you're a girl who's studying meteorology, everybody will go, you need to be a weather girl. Like it was a really detrimental, like an derogatory term. Like, are you going to stand there waving your arms around trying to look pretty and pretend you know what you're talking about? because that was kind of the vision like 25, 30 years ago when I was making these decisions. And I remember thinking, no, I will not be a TV weather presenter. I'm going to be a serious scientist and stay off TV. But times have changed. And actually, my very first job was at Cardiff Weather Center forecasting like everyday weather forecasts that we don't even realize that we need in news. So the gritting forecast is telling the gritters if it's going to be cloudy. or have clear skies at night, clear skies, the heat radiates, temperatures drop rapidly. So I'd keep them informed all night, whether it was going to be clear or cloudy, whether it was going be wet or dry to make frost. I used to do the hill walking forecast for local radio, used to phone up and it was my little prerecorded voice. We used to provide forecasts for energy companies. So if it's cloudy, you turn your lights on more. They need to produce more electricity. Things like that that people wouldn't think about a forecast for. the network rail and for airports all around the country or all around the Southwest of the country, because I worked in Cardiff. So it was like a front facing weather forecast. used to have hot air, lunis phone us up. We had Glastonbury phone us up every year to find out what the forecast was going to be so they had their long range planning. And that was my first kind of remit into weather that was useful for people every day. Then I went to work at RAF Bries Norton, which is like the airport for the RAF flying trips all around the world from Afghanistan to Iraq to the Falklands to Canada. And my geography was huge. My geography was terrible. I didn't know where anywhere was. But then when I went to Bries, the crews would come in and say, we're traveling to such and such. speaker-0: Get the Atlas L. speaker-1: No, where are we going? But then it just helped with all of my world weather knowledge. They used to be the air to air, but they still have the air to air refuelers. So if you want to get a small fast jets to Cyprus, for example, they can't fly there all the way and they don't want to land and then refuel and take off again. So my crews would meet them mid air and they would refuel them with like a basket and a nozzle. connect to it, take the fuel and then they carry on their journey. So that was really cool. It was my forecast at my base, my cloud base, my visibility, my thunderstorms. If there's thunderstorms in the area, they couldn't do any flying because you can't refuel an aircraft because it's exceptionally dangerous to refuel aircraft in thunderstorms. And there used to be a lot of pressure from crews coming in going, just lift the warning. We really want to fly. We're running out of crew duty. And you had to stay on your nerve. when I was a junior forecaster, was nerve wracking. But then I was there for like four years and then I loved the crew and actually That's when I started to use science to explain to them. They'd be like, why isn't the fog clearing? And they'd be like, well, here's why. Let me show you the fog point. Let me show you this Teffy ground. Let me show you the destruction. Let me show you what temperature we need. And if that cloud clears, the sun comes through, the fog's going. If it stays cloudy all day, the temperature won't rise. So they used to have a list, bit of knowledge of why something was happening or why it wasn't happening. It wasn't that my forecast was wrong. Two and two is at four in the world of weather, as you know. Some days it's two, some days it's five, some days it's 3.1. You know, it's different every day. And the crews used to kind of really appreciate like having that extra knowledge. Then a job came up at the BBC weather center and my boss was like, Laura, go for it. It's a year's attachment. See how it goes. I was like, I told you, I'm never doing this. But I went and had a look around and actually I then realized it was so different to the perception that I had in my head, probably put into me by other people saying, Ooh, that's a girl. And they have, you know, a chief forecaster who sits there speaking to them as an Exeter. They have BBC producers and graphic designers. They have everything from radio one to radio four. They have a country folk forecast. They have breakfast, lunch, six and 10. They have news 24. They have online interactive. They had BFBS, so British forces broadcasting services, forecasting for the pilots that were going to the places that I'd been forecasting for them to go to. And I suddenly was like. this is a lot more involved and a lot more credible and a lot more respectable than even I had thought it would be. So I went for a year and then never left. And then 14 years ago, I joined ITV to part of the new relaunch of Good Morning Britain. And yeah, I'd absolutely love it because I'm the meteorologist. And when I had my interview with them, they were like, we need somebody who's credible. who wants to explain science and wants to make all of this much more engaging. It wasn't like, we want someone pretty who'll do this. Not that I think I have, but you know, like I needed to hear that they wanted to science at the heart of everything. speaker-0: Yeah, and you're really good at explaining that in a way that's not necessarily complicated. Like here's the science and this is why it matters and this is why it matters to you. That's probably why you've got such a good following and why you stuck it out for 14 years. And I think lots of people make this assumption about weather presenters that they're just presenting someone else's forecast. But what I mean, I've done a one weather forecast presenting like presenting course essentially. you? So hard. if you're like Looking at this like thing down here, looking at yourself in reverse trying to be like, speaker-1: The reverse thing is weird, speaker-0: and so hard, Danny in front of a green screen. And also trying to, because whether presenters are often you're the buffer, like, well, more particularly on the news broadcast where it's like, well, we've got three minutes, but then the interview ran over. actually you've got two and a half and you have to fill the time or like do it really quickly. And it's such a skill and also to do it without tripping over your words or missing the most important bit. Gagging live on air if you're Thomas Schaffnacker. speaker-1: God, But I just, I love the sort of save the day moments. So our weather's usually on a half past the top of the hour. The half past one's quite flexible. And if there's not a guest, say government ministers early or late, then yeah, my time might change and my duration might change a little bit. At the top of the hour, that's the one that can change a lot because if the news headlines aren't queued up, if we've got a correspondent that's not ready, all the comms are down or we need to send some briefs or some scripts or need to cut up a thought. I hear in my ear, so we have to talk back all the time. And most of time you don't need to listen to that. Everyone's just chatting about what's coming up next and you listen to the PA giving your, you know, it'll be one minute and then she'd be like, 30 seconds. And then around 30 seconds, you suddenly hear, what do you mean they're not ready? Why haven't we got that cut? How long is it going to take? And I think, I'm going to need to keep talking here. And sometimes they'll give you like, we could probably need another 30 seconds here. Or sometimes they'll go, keep talking, we don't know how long for. speaker-0: hahahaha speaker-1: And then you change your pace. And I have like a million spare charts just in case, you know, I click and I control them all and I can go in order or I can skip past them or I can come back. And so I have a million charts saved just in case. And, you know, I've actually practiced at home, doing a 10 minute weather forecast, like just in case. So the team are always like, and then you'll hear the kerfuffle in your ear, like, are they ready? You're okay, they're They're like, speak to whoever, like, Jonathan, are you ready? And he goes, yeah, I'm ready. Okay. Laura when you can, would you laugh? Then you just have to rap, make it obvious to them you're done. And then the audience know nothing. They don't know that you're meant to have 30 seconds and you spoke for three minutes. yeah, but I love those days and the crew will often be like, and I'll take a look. speaker-0: Well, I'm ready to do I suppose that's a tough job. So as a weather presenter, you must have a favorite kind of especially if you've been forecasting all over the world, like surely you have a I don't know, is it the jet stream still? speaker-1: I mean, the jet stream is still my love and my passion for everything. Like if I go onto this morning with Ben and Kat, I mean, years ago, I told them about it. And then every time I go in, she'll go, it's the jet stream, isn't it? I knew it jet stream. So I'm like, people put it into like regular conversation still. I love it. But for me, I love a storm. You can't beat a storm. I love being out in a storm, reporting on a storm. Tends to happen less now because the reality is I should be in the studio, giving the precise detail of the timings. of when and where the rain is and how strong the winds are going to be and things like that. But I remember I was in a storm once in Blackpool. It was amazing. we could bet, like the sea was out far, but the wind was whipping up the sand. It was hitting our face. It so painful. And then me and the crew were trying to find somewhere safe to broadcast from. So they positioned themselves behind an RNLI building. So they were away from the wind. And then I stood out in the wind to try and be broadcast. I was just getting blown around all over the place. Then when I tried to get. back to them. I couldn't get behind the RNLI building because the Eddies coming around the building meant that it was just like ripping around. had to like run out round, slingshot myself back into them. we just, the next day they were like, we've gone through our kit, there is sand everywhere. Like it was everywhere in us, know, or our pants, like every hair. And then when I went to make up the next day, they were like, your skin is so smooth, Laura. Because it'd been like sandblasted all day. But there's nothing more exhilarating than a storm. Actually, I remember my final day at Reading University, me and all of the meteorology department, all of the ones who were going to graduate, we handed in our dissertations and then we all went down to Cornwall on a holiday. We all went to Lizard Point and it was really windy and we all put our coats up and then jumped and then the wind took us back and we're like, we're literally flying. So yeah, I think we just like. speaker-0: Yeah, mean, a storm is very dramatic. Yeah, absolutely. Like, that choice, I think is a good choice. I'm going to forecast it in advance. Exactly. So you've already talked a little bit about like the actual practicalities of being out kind of on location shooting. But yeah, what's it like to be a weather presenter? mean, I know you have to get up at an ungodly hour in morning and stuff. But like, what's the kind of day in the life when you're about to go on GMB? speaker-1: Okay, so yeah, got to put four at 3.50, which is early and I leave at four. And it takes me an hour to get to work, but that hour, everybody who works at that time of day gets a cab because there's no public transport. So I spend that hour going through my social media, looking at where the stories that have come in overnight. I'll speak to the Met Office, who have a media service team who are dedicated to briefing broadcasters across the country, because it's really important that obviously the The main thing is consistency with your forecast. know, now it's not like when I was at Brize and it was my forecast for the crew, the chief forecast in Exeter, who is the head forecaster in the whole country with the medium range forecaster, he's deputy, he sits next to him looking at the long range forecast. They then disseminate information to all the rest of the military and the aviation and broadcasters to make sure that we're all giving a consistent story. Because if it's not consistent and you turn channels or you look at your app or. listen to radio and it's different, then you have no confidence in the forecast. And that's the last thing we want. If we feel that the forecast is going wrong, we can phone up and say, Hey, have you seen the fog here or the rain coming in? And things can be tweaked, but you know, we're sort of just messengers of whether you understand meteorology more than the average person. And, know, it's a really complicated science and we have to make it very simple. think that's what we do. And then I'll speak to my producer. And usually the day before we'd already planned what we're going to talk about. whether it's a flood in France or whether it's wildfires or whether it's temperatures or the latest stats or last week, the report out about, you know, the El Nino from the Met Office. So there's always something or multiple things and I'll send them all in the day before and then the team will decide. So on the way in, we decide what finally, it might just be that a whole new story comes in first thing. Then when I get in at five, we sort out the weather graphics, we go speak to graphics because sometimes we have to spoke. Sometimes we just use our computer graphics from the Met Office. then hair, makeup, and yeah, we're on air from six until 10. And I have like eight broadcasts through the morning and they vary from, it should be a minute, but maybe between 30 seconds and two minutes. And, but I'll often be there. So they have some like news panel discussions. I know you do that kind of thing. And I'll be there to chip in if they're talking about anything, whether related or climate related or to correct them. usually put my hand up. That's not right. But I get given one, so whether it's my bread and butter, the weather forecast is sacrosanct. You know, I'm never going to take time away if I'm out on location and I'm at a beautiful garden at Chelsea, you know, just talking about, we've got like a net zero garden or a carbon garden. I'm never going to take time away from my weather to talk about that. I'll be given extra time to talk about that. But I get given one minute every day at 6.15 to talk about something, weather or space or science or climate. That started off a few years ago, just as like a little ad hoc thing for severe weather around the world. And then people really liked it and it rated and we've been doing it for like years now. And actually I still think it's amazing that, you know, a breakfast primetime show will give me that minute. And it's not long, but to talk about the latest IPCC report, all this gargantuan Godzilla El Nino. So that's what I get to do. And then we have our debrief and then we go home and then come up with new ideas and we start all over again. Well, speaker-0: Yeah, I mean, it's quite an intense job. I'm from a person who occasionally does the like 6am slot. My hat goes off to you because you got cab waking up at like 415 getting a cab and then sitting there like trying to figure out what you're supposed to say on live television is yes, it's challenge. Doing it more than once in a week. It's yes, definitely impressive. Yeah, you said you're talking about climate change on GMB, which also really surprises me. It's like, it's amazing that there's a dedicated slot and they allow you to talk about the things that you're passionate about and you think that you'll need to know. So when did you start talking about climate change more? And have you had a good reception to it? Like from the public, but also from the producers? I mean, it sounds like yes, but you're really good at talking, like trying to bring the weather and the climate together in a way that doesn't feel preachy or anything. speaker-1: That's the hard part. And I never want to preach and it probably started actually probably longer ago than I thought. So five years ago coming up, I went to Stalbard and that was a real turning point for me. Before that I'd done, you know, the odd bit of severe weather, you know, a typhoon in China or a hurricane in America or some cool space lightning or, you know, I'd done little, little bits here and there that if it was great, I sent it to the news team and they might put it in the news or I would talk about it. But was maybe maximum like once a week and it wasn't a regular thing. Then we had the opportunity to go to Svalbard in September, whatever five years ago is. And it was actually my daughter's first week starting school ever that clashed with the trip. So I got to take her to school on her first like half day. And then the next day I flew to Svalbard and was gone for a week. And there's quite a few of these new mums just like, terrible thing to do leaving your daughter. We were told by the Norwegian Polar Institute that they had new stats and the new stats was that Svalbard was warming faster than anywhere else on earth. think it was three times above the global average. And they were going to take us to different people and see different things to show us the reality of climate change for them. It was an amazing opportunity to go and see it. know, and I've spoken to the Met Office scientists who write the Cryosphere report, anything frozen on the planet. And we discussed with the team. Do we really need to go? Do we need to fly? Do we need to make emissions to go and talk about climate change? Is this bad? We had a really big discussion and there was just the three of us, me, my producer and my cameraman. And we're like, no, it's really important to go and to see this. And I feel like that was a turning point for me and for the show and for the viewers. And the thing that my work really wanted me to do was obviously tell the story there, but to bring it home to us, always bring it home. And why should I care? And why should I care? So we were there for like, yeah, five or six days and we had multiple hits essentially presenting an Arctic documentary, little bite sized chunks that, that the, you know, a lot of proportion of our audience, you know, we're geeks, we would watch an Arctic documentary, but there's a really niche audience to want to watch that. Whereas we gave a little bits of Arctic documentary over three days in like one or two minute chunks, multiple times through the show, covering different aspects and different elements of it. And the audience really, really, really loved it. And it would be, know, chatting to this guy called Kim Holman from the Norwegian Polar Institute. was one of my favorite human beings on the whole planet. He went to Svalbard. He went to help rule the research and he was very softly spoken and a really lovely, kind guy. And he was saying his big message was there is nothing that you can do to tackle climate change. That isn't going to be better for you and the planet. And his big frustration was when people say, I have to give up this to save the planet or I have to not do this for the planet. He was like, you know, think about it. You know, I walk my daughter to and from school. It's about a mile and we walk it's free. We breathe. We're the freshest of earth. We're breathing somewhere. And we look at ladybugs on the way. And on a Friday we litter pick and we chat and we have a conversation and the journey takes us about 25 minutes to walk. would take two minutes in the car. There's so many benefits from that walk. Just as one little example, and I remember really taking away from him that we need to embrace all of the changes that we can make to make the planet better, that will be better for us. Anyway, we went to a big rocky bit of ground with this guide and then he was like, I arrived in Svalbard 40 years ago. And then he went, this is where the glacier ended. And I was literally about to turn 40. I remember thinking, in my lifetime. And he looked right up the hill. like half a mile away and you could just see the end of the glacier. And he went, that's how much it's retreated in 40 years. I remember going, wow. And he went, not just that. He went, look up. He said the ice was 50 meters high. You know, the visualization of this huge block of ice and that's just one glacier or one bit of Svalbard and that's happening across the whole of Svalbard and how are they Arctic? And I remember standing there going, wow, the landscape's changed. And then we spoke to one of the guys from the tourist board and then he was saying to us that in 2017, the, there's an ice field. freezes over in the winter, it doesn't freeze over in the summer. 2017, it didn't freeze over that winter and it hasn't frozen over since. And he had to phone people and say, you know how you're going to come on the Husky Rise? There's no going on the ice. You know how we're going to go sledging? They can't go on the ice. And he had to just stop everything for a year and rethink how tourism could work and do inland activities. And also the season reducing and shrinking, you know, the snow that they have. They've seen that the reindeer population are dying in droves because there's a longer part of the year where it's cold, but not cold enough to snow. So they get rain and then the rain freezes. The reindeer can shuffle through snow with their hooves and eat the grass or whatever. But when it rains and it freezes, they can't break through the ice with their hooves. So they're dying. Then we have the Atlantification of the water around Salbars. So obviously it should be Arctic water around the Arctic. We're getting warmer water from the Atlantic. which brings Arctic cod, which moves away the Arctic cod and brings in the Atlantic cod. So polar bears go out to try and find fish and the fish they find out the fish that they want. So there's something further, getting the nutrients they need. And they'll find that the polar bears are dying in their droves. They're coming into land more to try and get food for where humans are. And I remember just being like, it was the first time I felt climate change. I saw how the landscape is changing. I saw the impact it had on the tourism. And I saw the impact it was having on the wildlife and the way it was affecting people. And I just was like, it really, it was really moving and it was really, really, it was really stressful actually. And on the very last day, we kind of gave a summary of everything we'd learned and I cried on TV, which was really embarrassing because I didn't want, I didn't know I was going to cry. just felt this wave come over me because I was thinking about my daughter and having what I'd missed seeing, you know, her go to school. Realizing that the bigger thing was where I was and what I'd learned and what I could see and how it was really important for me to now do everything I could to protect the planet and do everything I can so that if she were to visit Svalbard in 40 years, it would look the same. And the tragedy of what it could look like or might look like in 40 years with the projections we have, I was really terrifying. that was kind of why I got emotional. And some people were like, it's so unprofessional. She cried. It's like, I didn't want to cry. crying looks unprofessional and it also looks like you're trying to pull focus on a story to you and it wasn't, it just, that is the wave I had. So then after that, that was like, right, I want to do more of this and you know, the item rated and yes, there were people saying, you flew and you made emissions and to help, you know, to save the planet, but then that's ruining the planet. you know, the negative impact on the planet was this and the positive impact from the multiple people who then came and spoke to me and said, I hadn't realized how important it was for them and how it affects the jet stream, how it affects weather in the UK. The schools were doing projects. People of all ages were coming up to me then suddenly other broadcasters were going and telling the same story that we told and we kind of paved the way. And then the team were like, the audience really liked this and I think it's really important. And they're not doing it for ratings, they're doing it because they care. And actually genuinely they'll see stories and they go, how about this? How about that? And I'm just still like... We just spoke about old media or dashboard TV, but everyone is doing it. And so you're like, it's great. So feel like we kind of set, you know, we paved the way for it to be more mainstream. speaker-0: Yeah, I mean, there's so much that you said that really resonates. mean, the emotional reaction to climate change is, of course, like if you trade, if you're seeing all of this yourself, and you're dealing with the science and you're zooming out to see that bigger picture and then like feeling the emotions of it, of course, it's an emotional subject. I actually had a very similar experience when I went to, well, when I went to Antarctica for the first time, you know, I studied this, this is literally what I did my PhD on. And I feel like I know what's going on there. And then just actually being present and seeing the environment itself and being like, wow, this is so much more incredible than I thought it was. Even, you know, I already was obsessed and to actually go there and see it and feel it for myself, it felt somehow way bigger. And so I went to Spelvard the year after you went, I think. So yeah, we were shooting a documentary about climate change, strangely enough. I remember I made a video about it for YouTube as well. And it was at that time Longyearbyen, which is the main city in Svalbard, was warming seven times faster than the rest of the planet that year. There was no ice in Isfjord. There was no sea ice that year. I remember talking to a guide as well and he like, well, yeah, we used to be able to take a skidoo straight over the ice to that. bank over there. Now you have to go the long way around, which it takes three hours. And instead of taking like a 15 minute, skidoo ride over the top, over the ice, you have to go all the way around on the roads and yet hearing the, all the connected elements, like, you know, you're talking about the polar bears, you're talking about the reindeer, you're talking about the, the tourism industry, all the people who live there, having to like, easily reconfigure every aspect of life and the ecosystem is so Yeah, it's scary and it really emphasizes how everything is so connected. And the Arctic is especially special in the sense that it has people living there as well. Unlike the Antarctic, of course. But yeah, trying to communicate the gravity of that without actually going there, both yourself and also, you know, for broadcast TV, that's such an important role to be able to bring that to people because most people aren't going to go to the Arctic in their life. speaker-1: Exactly. And I remember before I went speaking to one of the scientists in the Met Office and saying to him, these numbers are not a hundred percent correct because it was a long time ago, but saying, you know, what is the projection? You know, what is going to happen if we were to stop emitting everything tomorrow and we were net zero and what? And he was like, we will still be locked into five meters of sea level rise over a long time. I think it was like thousand years. And I was like, Ooh, that's going to be tough sell. People are going to go, we're already doomed. Like terrible, but you know, we're already doomed. And then he went, yes, yes. But what you need to remind them is that if we carry on with our current projections, that number would go from five meters to 25 meters. And you're like, I remember thinking that was one of the moments I was like, that's why it matters. That's why the earlier we reduce the more we reduce every little tiny. that we can reduce makes a huge difference. I've just come up with a great analogy that might be wrong. I remember when we got our first mortgage, I remember the mortgage advisor saying, if you just go in and just put a couple of pounds, any of your loose change every single day on your mortgage, you will help to reduce the cost of your mortgage massively because that is all repaying the mortgage rather than just being the interest. And I remember he said that if we paid 50 pounds extra, every month, which wasn't too much, he said we would reduce our mortgage by five years and save 12 and a half thousand pounds. So this time, this what seems like a small amount of money saves a really large amount of money and a large amount of time. I guess the same as the curve coming down. So yeah, I think that's the thing that people don't realize. It's not just, we get to 1.5 and we're doomed and we succeed and we fail. Every little tiny bit of reduction, every little tiny bit of reduced warming, see, literally see it just like it's a smack bang right across the bar and the change there. speaker-0: Yeah, it's, I often say, you know, every 10th of a degree matters, every ton of CO2 matters. And with something like sea level rise, that's often something that people kind of latch onto, because it makes total intuitive sense, like, you warm the planet, ice melts, adds to sea levels. But the time scales are probably what really changes things. Because yeah, we might, we probably will see multiple meters of sea level rise over the very long term. probably we've probably committed ourselves to losing Greenland and West Antarctica, which is now, I think that's in total about 10 meters of sea level rise, but it's not going to unfold for another few hundred, possibly thousand years. What's more pressing is the extreme events that are already killing people, that are already costing us more on our housing, home insurance, or impacting the food bill or the energy bill. Those things, it's kind of trying to hold those things in the same... breath is actually quite challenging and talking about time scales that are both immediate, but also really long term. And I think a lot of people's misconceptions about climate change come from this time scale thing, because humans were not good at dealing with the multi-generational time scale. We live in the here and now and this month and this year, and actually trying to communicate that with people. is really difficult. That's one of things I find really difficult, generally, as a climate communicator. And weather is obviously so immediate, it's the next 24 hours, the next week, and then you're talking about something that's, you know, a multi-year thing, and trying to... People conflate weather and climate all the time, as I'm sure you know, very well. And that can be a real challenge, about trying to do a yes and scenario. Like, we are committed to some degree of change that we... It's now, you we can't change that. We still make it better. speaker-1: Yes. Years ago, think King Charles said, when he was Prince Charles, said something like, with climate change, will only want to make a difference when it comes up and slaps us in the face. When it's here, you know, this summer, climate change has been here and people have started to go, shit, like loads more people have come up to me and gone, yeah, you know, the fires and then the food and then the farmers and then you're like, yeah. Yeah, but I'm like scaremonger, but I'm just saying, well, that's the thing I always do for me. I just state fact. can't, I'm not going to, I've I've never been on, on my show and said, you, you must not fly. You must eat less meat. You must do all these things. Cause that's not my position on that show. If I'm asked to be on a panel or to go to a company and talk about sustainability and how the business can run better. Or, you know, if people want facts, I'll give them to them. But on my show, I will just state the facts of our weather event. or extreme weather. And obviously the big thing we have now are the brilliant attribution studies, which are one of my favorite things from Imperial College. But for those who don't know, it just basically looks at when we have an extreme weather event and people will say, well, this was naturally would happen. Yeah. Lots of weather events will naturally happen and, you know, say if yesterday was 40 degrees Celsius, I'm not going to today go. Yesterday was 40 degrees Celsius and climate change made it happen because it most likely did, but I don't know that yet. We meteorologists all wait until we get the attribution study to give us the science of the actual specific weather event. So they'll go back in time, take out all of the emissions, run the forecast through to present day and see how likely the weather event would happen in a natural world. And then we see how likely it is to happen in a present world. So that 40.3 degrees that we got in July 22, which was the hottest we've ever had in the UK. Again, I'm going to forget, I think that they came up with that was virtually impossible, right? Without human caused climate change. And then it's something that would now happen once every hundred years. By the end of the century, it would happen every other year if we continue with the emissions. that's the, think the next step is not just how much more likely it is now thinking about our children and our children's children, that would be projected to be an every other summer thing. that's when you start going, I wouldn't want that every other summer. know, and Canada and Lytton, that's always one that like jumps out for me. it was like, I think that might've been 22 or 23 as well. And they broke 50 degrees Celsius in Canada. The first time they'd ever done it, hotter than at the time it had ever been in LA, which is thousands of miles further south. They had massive wildfires, town burnt down. And again, they, the attribution study came back to say that that would have been impossible, virtually impossible without human caused climate change. And then they had this extreme temperature and a place that feels very much a similar latitude and a similar lifestyle to us. So these extreme weather events aren't happening in faraway places that we can't connect to, that we don't travel on holiday to. They're happening place to now. And we now a hundred percent know that the large proportion of them are made more likely, significantly more likely because of climate change. speaker-0: when you hear those kinds of examples, it really does put it into perspective. So I wonder how you kind of, how you must cope with the inevitable onslaught of climate denial when you're literally sharing these things and understanding these things every single day. mean, most people, I hope, are probably really positive, but I've seen your comments. They're very similar to my comments. How do you, how do you cope with that? Because I know that my response is to do snarky response videos. speaker-1: Yeah, okay. speaker-0: like, I don't know, okay, mostly I just ignore them or block them or whatever. like, sometimes I feel the need to make a snarky response. But like, how do you deal with climate denial? you try to kind of explain the science? Do you try to deflect? What's the procedure? speaker-1: Well, first off, I wish I was as cool as you to do some like, really socket videos back, but I'm really not, I'm not that cool. So here's what I think. And for years, when on what was Twitter, it used to say, there's some really horrible responses. Do you want to read this? And you know, I've done a climate video, then it says, do you want to read this? might be really horrible. And I'll always read them because I think it's really important to know what everyone is thinking. Even if they're a really small minority. they're very vocal minority. I think it's really important to know why people don't think that climate change is real or that it's happening. It's not even climate denial. It's just like, stupid. I think it's important for me to know that so that when I then communicate next time, I might be able to add in a line that will just cut off one of the things that they thought. Or if it's somebody going, yes, but look at this place in Greenland that has got colder. over the last two years, you just explain to them that, you know, yeah, that will happen. You'll get little places that go up and down. But if you find the graph at that one place, you go to Ed Hawkins' Climate Strikes page and you will show that the trend is up. Earth has been hotter than this. And you're like, yeah, Earth has been hotter than this. But it is never so, anything that I can give science to answer, I will just come back and answer it with some science. That for me is the most important thing. But it doesn't affect me. It doesn't upset me. doesn't... worry me. And actually I've got multiple weather WhatsApp groups and we've got, I've got a big, a big world one that there's a weather presenter from pretty much every country and we share weather stories and we share advice and our thoughts. It's never political and allowed to write any political feelings or comments about other countries or other nations and things that are happening in their governments, for example, because it's not that forum, but we have had a discussion on it about how people. are treated because, and when they talk about climate change and it's very different across the world depending on their government and governance and how far countries are along in their understanding or appreciation or impact of climate change. And some people it's really upsetting. I know, do you know a Chris Gollinger, he's an American meteorologist who used to communicate climate change very similar to me in his daily weather forecast. And he ended up getting death threats. to him and his family. And he had to leave his station, leave his house, he had to move and get another job somewhere else where he now is solely dedicated to climate communication. And there's been a program, like a mini movie made about it. And it was really traumatic for him at first, of course, because they're targeting him and his family. But then he turned it into something that, you know, that he can learn from and others can learn from. And he still wants to communicate. And I think that is huge and it's massive. I think it could really affect you, but touch wood it doesn't because I'm not doing anything wrong and I'm just trying to help people learn. And like last year when, I say not to be political, but when Donald Trump was talking to the UN and he said that climate scientists are stupid people and a couple of other things that, you know, made me feel quite rageful. I phoned the newsroom instantly and I said, guys, we have to respond to this. But we have to respond to it in a way that's proportionate. We don't want to start calling names or pointing out this or having a go. I don't want to lower myself to other standards. I want to keep us, you know, incredible and respectable. So we had a big discussion about how to do it. And so we just kind of with Richard Magley sort of, he just sort of played devil's advocate and said, you know, well, what if he is right? What if the world has been hotter? What if it is the sun? What if it is volcanoes? What if it is all these things? What do you say to that? So then we use carbon reefs, lovely traces of how temperature has risen and how greenhouse gas submission and how things have changed because of aerosols, how they've changed because of volcanic activity, because of the orbit around the sun. And we just did like a one minute bite size. Here is how we know greenhouse gases have caused the planet to rise. Not preachy, state in fact. These are all the other things, minimal effect. And then you kind of sit there and hopefully go, wow. And that was one of the most watched videos of my whole Instagram. Because people shared it and they shared science. They shared credible, respectable science that didn't shout or point fingers. just, and I was really proud, was really proud of the community for going, let's just share this and we'll understand more. So that's the best way to do it. speaker-0: And you come across so much better when you're able to be like, OK, here's your argument. Here are all the very many well-evident reasons why it's not right, these scientific arguments. I'm very conscious that we are running out of time and we should talk about your book. You've written a book before, haven't you? More about how to take everyday ways to be more sustainable. speaker-1: Hang on. speaker-0: tadaaaa speaker-1: Just happens to be right next to me. After I came back from Svalbard, when I wanted to make change, when everybody at the time, know, kind of we go through waves of, I guess 10 years ago it was, is climate change really happening? Probably about seven years ago. Okay, it's happening, but is it really us? And then probably about five years ago, okay, it's us, but what can we do? And everyone was just like, what can I do? So I wanted to come up with 101 ways to save the planet. And then it ended up being 200 plus ways. of just lots of little things that people can do with science at the beginning. And I just wanted to be able to feel like I'd made a change, I've done something for my daughter so that people knew how and why they could make a difference. you know, so I'm a small scale and you start with the little ones and then you build up. And yes, so that's what I did now. Magic. speaker-0: Uhhh, the new one! speaker-1: So, you know, I love weather. And I think particularly in the UK and in America, basically anywhere that sits under the jet stream, we probably love talking about weather more than anywhere else in the world because it changes so much and so often, and we rely on it and we love to love it being hot and then it's too hot and then we want it to be cold and then it's too cold and we want rain and it's going to be too wet. I just love the conversations, but I love using a bit of science to explain stuff. I love it when I hear, you know, people, I was at the vision chip shop and had these two ladies going, well, high pressure has been sitting across us for ages now. And that's why we've got this heat dome and it's so hot. And I'm like, yes, you're listening to science. You're listening to like, this is so great. So I just took like all the questions anyone's ever asked me. I thought I want to put it in a book. want to explain the atmosphere and the weather and the jet stream and pressure in a way that's really easy to understand. So it's sort of this. It's not a textbook, but it's got bits from, if you were to have a meteorology textbook, but it's got like loads of fun stories of me, you know, so it's set into an atmosphere section, pressure, wind, rain, temperature, precipitation, I can't remember all the others, but all of the chapters of, you know, different elements of weather and each of them are like fun stories, facts along the way, little pop-outs of, know, did you know this? And then the final sections are how. the Met Office make weather forecasts. So I used to work there anyway, but I went back from this amazing visit and like the best day of my life and chatted to all of the chief forecasters and the deputy chief and the flood forecasting department and the Met Office, the media surface team and the space weather team. Every department and how they help to forecast the different areas that we wouldn't, most people wouldn't even think about and how we forecast, we split the earth up into a grid and we have all these different layers. And then finally it comes to me and I'm an end user. And then the final chapter is how you can read weather charts and how you can read radar and rain and look at the cloud and know what that cloud is going to bring. So the point is by the end of it, you should be able to forecast the weather yourself. You should be able to tell your friends that cloud's going to do this and this pressure chart means this. And you should be able to make your own poor man's ensemble of if it's going to rain at the weekend. That's the plan. The funny thing is it's actually at the printers. Now, so this is actually a sleeve on a German football book. That's all German. It doesn't make any sense to me right now. But yeah, it's being printed this week. speaker-0: Fighting! my god. Well, congratulations and when does it come out? speaker-1: 1st of October. speaker-0: Okay, so this will have come out this week speaker-1: Okay, perfect. speaker-0: by the time it's out. So yeah, where can people buy it? It's all reputable bookshops, I'm sure. Where can people follow you? Where can people find out more about you? speaker-1: So I will be mostly posting about it on my Instagram, which is Laura Tobin-Weather, but we really want to be really big in the independent book shops. So I've done like 1500 book signings to be at independent book shops around the country. And, you know, we're doing some book signings. I think it's really important that, you know, with the focus on nature and the environment that they're the places that it will be nicer people could buy the book from rather than other larger reputable retailers. speaker-0: I'm back, Michelin. speaker-1: But you know, this is like grandparents and parents, like literally all the makeup ladies are like, my dad is going to love this. yeah. it was even for me, I got my, what's called the Forecaster Reference book. It's like Bible. It's like this thing that we used to forecast from. used to go back and find things. And I was like, my God, I forgot this. I forgot that. And it was meant to be 50,000 words and I wrote 88,000. Classic, long spell. And then I sent it to a sub-editor so she'd get a chapter at a time and she would be like, send me less. Like all of this. So then it was her job to... She used to just take a whole section out and say, this is boring, we're not including this. Or she would say, this section is really interesting, but I needed to explain it even more simply for me. So between us, we'd go backwards and forwards and we'd just get to the point that it's digestible, but people feel educated. speaker-0: This is why we all need good editors in our lives. I see you're really enthusiastic and passionate and nerdy about, and I don't quite get it yet. Can you make it? speaker-1: Some sections just didn't make it at all. Like I wanted to decode metas and tasks which are like how military code weather. speaker-0: it. speaker-1: If you're sitting in airport and your flight is delayed, you can see what the forecaster on base is thinking about the forecast and the trends. But they were like, this is taking way too much explanation. So was like, fine, I'll let that one slide. speaker-0: Yeah, we love this jumble of letters as much as you do, but I remember doing a little bit of forecasting training because I was a weather observer in Antarctica for a while. speaker-1: bit. speaker-0: Yeah, trying to, because you have to forecast the tan book and then they have the polar version. So, speaker-1: wow. speaker-0: blowing snow is above this high and then like drifting snow is only if the visibility is less than this and like has to be lower than two meters, like the very specific idiosyncrasies of polar weather. Great to talk to you, keep doing all the amazing work that you're doing. speaker-1: keep having me on and letting me just chat is like my favorite weather and chatting. speaker-0: Easy. Perfect. I mean, please not like it. Thanks for watching. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Laura Tobin as much as I did. I think her enthusiasm and passion for the weather and for climate change is infectious. And her new book, Come Rain or Shine, is full of the same kind of energy. And if you're interested in any of the stuff that we've talked about today, then you should definitely check out. back in three weeks with a sexy edition of the pod. and I'll be back next week with a deep dive into the science and the ethics of geoengineering. If you want to be the first to see my work, then you can sign up over here on Patreon and get early access. On the subject of weather, watch this one next about how a certain type of wind can change Antarctic ice, and I'll see you next time. Ciao!