Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | The Swinney Roast | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/25/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | The Swinney Roast | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/25/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hole in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: out That fella fights hard But it don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: What's up, everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Friday, September 25th.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: We went 1-0 on the show yesterday with the over
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: in Reds-Braves. Yeah, that was over, literally, by the third inning,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: and Somehow, there weren't that many runs scored after that
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: point in the game. It was 5-5 in the third inning, though.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: I'm like, all right, yeah, this one already went over. Okay, cool. Yeah,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, we got a run right away in the
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: top of the first, so kind of setting the tone. Molly,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: not at his best, really, and Singer was awful, and
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: that's pretty much what I expected. He gave up four
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: runs in the bottom of the first. He already had
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: five runs in the first inning. I'm like, yeah, this
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: is going pretty well, I would say.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 2:14
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Molly, I think, stayed in the game longer and kind
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: of settled down a little bit more.
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: Singer was out earlier, but then the Reds.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Wound up still winning the game somehow in a battle
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: of bullpens, which is not what you would have expected.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: We got the over easily.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Today.
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: I'm being selective here, man.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: We got a lot of baseball, but this is the
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: last series of the baseball season, the last weekend prior
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: to the playoffs, so it comes down to motivation. I
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: have one good spot that I think is a good spot,
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: plus motivation in support of it, plus the pitching edge.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: So I found one spot that I think is the
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: best for baseball here, and that's what I'm isolating. Everything else,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I'm going to tread lightly here, and I have decided
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: i will put a football game on my card tonight
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: as well out of the handful of uh college football
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: games tonight there's one that is just a weird enough
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: situation that i think it makes sense to do it
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: um let's get into it man we have uh two
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: double headers today that involve the red sox and the
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: yankees the red sox are playing.
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: The cubs this is a double header uh.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: One game early in the afternoon, the first game up
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: is 1.05 p.m. Eastern. That's the only early afternoon game,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: if you will. The Red Sox have nothing to play for.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: They're locked into the two wild card spot. They will
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: be playing the Yankees. The Cubs have a little bit
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: to play for in that they're playing for... positioning in
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: the wildcard because it's still a close wildcard race with
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: it's almost guaranteed that the wildcards this winter San Diego
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: I think is already guaranteed one of the wildcard spots
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Chicago and then Philadelphia and Arizona is still not eliminated
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: yet so and Philadelphia would be the team that is
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: most in danger of getting bounced by Arizona if that
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: were to actually be the case here and But the Cubs,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: if they're trying to play to get the number one
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: wild card, that would be their motivation here. So they
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: at least have more than the Red Sox do. And
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: with the pitching setup here, you kind of understand that
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: that is the case. Because Chicago is going with their
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: two pitchers that are basically the same that they both
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: got from the Mets, Holmes and Peterson, who are both
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: kind of similar in that I think they're both overrated.
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: And they both get a lot of ground balls.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: While the Red Sox are basically going Bullpen game in
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: Game 1 with Gamboa. The Gamboa constrictor listed as the starter.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: He's a relief pitcher right now. He's been good for
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Don't know if he's going to go
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: more than one inning here or not, but it looks
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: like it's going to be a bullpen game for the
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: Red Sox in Game 1 here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: So I don't think that's going to.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Be particularly good, although the Red Sox do have the
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: number one bullpen. Red Sox only used two guys out
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday, and it is still September, so
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: you do have extra arms out of the bullpen here.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: Chicago used to as well.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Uh, the Cubs were able to get the win yesterday, uh,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: against Miami in a close game yesterday. So the Cubs
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: turning that around now they have to travel to Boston,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: but starting a road trip with momentum. Usually that is
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: a focus spot. Um, so I think it's fine for Chicago.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are just staying at home and the
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Red Sox lost again to Cleveland in a much lower
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: scoring game than I anticipated yesterday in that game, Cleveland
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: with their motivation did wind up winning the game. Um,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Holmes for Chicago, he's got a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 whip,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: so he has had a good season there. Not putting
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: too many men on base, but he is not really
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. 4.44 road ERA. He's not
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. The month of September, he's
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: got an ERA over nine across three starts here, and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: two of them were against Miami and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh may
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: be giving him a pass for not being great in
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: that one, but these other offenses, even though Miami's ranked
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: kind of high offensively, This is not good stuff, Miami
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: and then especially Cincinnati. And Holmes has a 12-12 strikeout
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. He's not in good form right now.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: So that's not good.
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: Bad current form. He does have a low hit rate on.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: The season, though. Like I said, he's an extreme ground
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher, although that can kind of mask other things.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: But he also walks too many guys, and he doesn't
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: really strike many guys out. So the advanced analytics guys
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: won't like him. And I feel like I'm about to
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: say the same thing about Peterson as well. Holmes, 1.9
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, not very good. 7 strikeout per 9
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: is not really good either. His numbers against the Red
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Sox are also mediocre, I would say. 49 at-bats, 286
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: average is definitely too high. So they do hit him
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: for contact, although they don't really hit him for power.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: 687 OPS, 11-4 strikeout walk ratio. I think maybe the
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: over is the best look.
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: In this game.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to recommend doing it, but the money
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: is slightly coming in that way. It looks like it's
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: a ridiculously low total. It's six and a half, which
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: is insane. That number just seems way too low. How
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: could you have a number that low when it's Holmes
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: and Gamboa here in what's typically a fairly hitter-friendly ballpark here?
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: I know the Red Sox just played.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: A really low-scoring series against Cleveland. Cleveland's one of the
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: worst offenses in baseball. The Cubs are the best, which
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: I forgot to look at the standings, but yeah. Red
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Sox are the number one bullpen as it stands right now.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: The Cubs are number 15 in bullpen here, although, again,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Red Sox going with a bullpen game doesn't seem like
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: a great thing to back, I would say.
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, idea-wise, who cares, because the Red Sox.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Don't have anything to gain by winning these games. Cubs
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: are the number one offense, and the Red Sox have
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: fallen down to number 16, tied with Minnesota, because the
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have been putting up no offense recently. It
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: is cool up here, I'll tell you that. It's in
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: the 50s. Afternoon game probably is going to wind up
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: being in the 60s here. The weather is a concern
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: as well as the Nor'easter is coming in, which I
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: forgot to mention with that college football game last night.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: The weather was bad in that game, and Liberty wound
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: up pulling away later in the game after it was
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: tied in the third quarter, I'm pretty sure. But I
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: forgot that that bad weather was down there in South
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Carolina there. Um, the game didn't quite.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: Get to the over. I don't think maybe it did.
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: It landed 51.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I forget where the total was in that game, but whatever. Um, yeah,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: there's going to be a nor'easter up here in Boston
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: over the weekend. So you're going to be a lot
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: of rain and a lot of wind. Like it's unplayable
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: for baseball, which. You know what, that might be part
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: of the reason why there are doubleheaders here. I don't
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: think these are makeup games. I think these teams know
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: that they probably can't play tomorrow, which is the brunt
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: of the Nor'easter is going to be tomorrow. So I
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: think that's what's going on with Red Sox and Yankees here.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I think they decided, let's do a doubleheader on Friday,
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: knowing that we're not going to be able to play
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: on Saturday. That's my guess. I think that's what's going
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: on here. Okay, so yeah, I think over is the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: better way to look at this game, though. We have
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: 73% of tickets, 85% of the cash on the over.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: The total ridiculously low at six and a half. I mean,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: it seems too low to me. I mean, you're getting
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: under that key number. I know the Red Sox just
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: had a really low scoring series against Cleveland. Like I said,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Cubs are like the complete opposite offensively that Cleveland is,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: you know, way, way better offensively. Cubs are also the
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: favorite here at around minus 120% Money's coming in on
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox.
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't do it.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: 50-50 on the tickets, 60% of the cash on the
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. I mean, everybody does know, though, that the
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Cubs need to win. Well, sort of. The Cubs have
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: something to play for, so maybe that means there's a
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: little bit of pressure on them, and or maybe that
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: means the Cubs shouldn't be favored like this on the road.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: And we did just see Holmes has been awful recently,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: and he's not good against the Red Sox either, so.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, backing Holmes doesn't seem like the greatest
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: idea to me in this game. Again, I think the
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: over is the better way to look at that one.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: And in game two, David Peterson is getting the start.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: He's got a 4.96 ERA, 1.51 whip. That is not good.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road, though, significantly. 3.89 road ERA.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: And he's actually not in bad form right now. He's
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: picked up a win in his last two outings. He
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: had 14 strikeouts, only six hits allowed and two runs allowed.
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: Over those 14 innings.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Against the Braves and the Reds, I mean, against the Reds,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: it's not as impressive. Against the Braves, that's fairly impressive,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: and he had four walks over that span. He's still
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: got some walk issues, but at least unlike Holmes, Peterson
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: is actually in good form right now. And since being
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: acquired by the Cubs, he actually hasn't really been that bad.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: He had one start where he got completely lit up
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: by St. Louis at home, but other than that, he's
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer on runs in all but one
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: other outing, which was also at home, and it was
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee, who's at least a good offense. He does
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: have a hit rate that's too high, though, and his
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: walk rate's not very good. He is also a ground
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. which kind of masks other deficiencies, and his
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is not really that good. 2.1 strikeout walk
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: ratio is not great. 8.2 Ks per nine is okay,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: so he is a better strikeout pitcher than Holmes. Peterson
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox has not been good, though. In
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: 41 at-bats, 293 average allowed, 819 OPS, 10-4 strikeout walk ratio,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: so those numbers are not good.
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: I think I misspoke.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: The Holmes, actually, his numbers aren't that bad against the
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. Just his allowed batting average is not really
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: that good. Holmes, I mean, not Peterson. Holmes actually has
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: slightly better matchup numbers, but Holmes is in very bad
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: current form, so I still wouldn't want to back him
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: for that reason. Peterson is in better current form, at least.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have Brian Baio starting this game. No
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: more relief Baio, no more bullpen Baio, because he started
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: not pitching well out of the bullpen either. He was
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: really good in his last start, though. He finally had
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: a good start. The Red Sox lost the game anyway, but...
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Baio has a 4.49 ERA, 1.37 whip. So, I mean,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: mediocre here. Maybe I overstate how bad I think he is.
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: I like him better than Sandoval, okay? How about that?
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: That's not saying much.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.91 home ERA, so he is better
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: at home. He was excellent in his last start at
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. They somehow lost that game. He went eight
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: innings with 11 strikeouts, no walks, five hits allowed him
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: one run on a solo home run.
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: He was really good in that start. He was pretty
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: good two outings prior.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: To that against Anaheim, and then he had like a
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: bullpen appearance or something in between the two. against Texas
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: so Bale I mean he is at least pitching pretty
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: well right now over his over his last few outings
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: that bullpen outing also he didn't allow any base runners
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: in that one so um I don't believe his hit
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: rate's too high in the season though his walk rate
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: has actually gone down so that's pretty good he is
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: a very heavy ground ball pitcher he doesn't really strike
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: that many guys out but at least his walk rate
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: has kind of gone down 2.6 strike a walk ratio
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: and Better than both Cubs pitchers today. So, you know,
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: at least more mediocre there. 7.2 Ks per nine, not
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: really that good. Bayo is mediocre against the Cubs. They
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: have 41 at-bats against them, which kind of surprised me.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: It was this big of a sample size being in
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the opposite league. 10 strikeouts, one walk here. That's pretty
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: good for him. 268 average allowed, 749 OPS.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: Those numbers aren't really that bad.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: You know, if you look at the matchup in this one,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: It actually does slightly favor Bayo over Peterson, given that
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: they both look like they're in decent current form. Bayo's
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: matchup number's a little bit better. The Red Sox are
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: slightly getting the money here. 61% of tickets, 64% of
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: the cash on them.
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: You don't know what the bullpens are going to look
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: like after game one.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: Well, you know the Red Sox bullpen is going to
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: be used after game one because that's what they're doing,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game in game one.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: Cubs minus 116 points.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Urso on the price here the money also backing another
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: over and it's another low total six and a half
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: again it's got to do with the weather it has
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: to do with the weather even though the Red Sox
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: are not anywhere near the water Fenway is not because
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: it's yeah like.
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: It's further inland than that but.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know man I mean I think it has
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: to do with the fact that it's cool here it's
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: going to be rainy windy whatever Reds they're trying to
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: get these games in before it becomes unplayable conditions tomorrow
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: We'll see, man. Yeah, I mean, I'm not wanting to
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: play the under in either one of these games. And
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: in fact, I'd probably lean over in both of them.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: And the money is agreeing with both. But in game two,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Red Sox first five is kind of an option, I think,
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: in this game as well. But the over, I think,
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: is actually what makes the most sense in both.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: Games, to be honest.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: 62% of tickets, 94% of the cash on the over
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: in game two. Nothing that I want anything to do
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: with here, though.
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: Rio, what's up, man? Yeah, I commented on one of
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: those tweets.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Al Michaels. But they made it seem
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: like Al Michaels was too old now and losing his mind.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: So I watched some of the videos and I expected
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: that he was going to be like, you know, saying
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: something that made no sense or, like, incoherent or something
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: like that. That wasn't the case. Like, he just sounded
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: like he normally does to me. It's just, okay, your
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: beef with him is that he doesn't get overly excited.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I like the announcers to get crazy
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: and go over the top, like Gus Johnson and whatever, but,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, Michaels, I mean, this is his style. I mean,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not a huge fan of him. I don't really
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: hate him either, but, yeah, I mean, I thought it
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: was just a complete no story there. I'm like... Again,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: when people were like, oh, he's got to retire now,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking, okay, he's too old. He must have said
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: something where he was totally incoherent or something like that,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: had a stroke on TV or something. No, that's not
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: what happened at all. He just sounded like he normally does,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: so I have no idea why, though.
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: Garrett, what's up?
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: There's nothing different about Michaels now, really noticeably, from what
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: he was like 10 years ago. like, he might not
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: be that good, but, uh, if you're saying he needs
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to retire now, there's no reason why he shouldn't have
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: been saying that at the beginning of his career, because
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: he doesn't sound like any different to me, you know
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: what I mean, uh, so I think it's all just
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: fucking weird, Kevin Harlan, yeah, um, yeah, I mean, there
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: are certain guys that I like, I like Gus Johnson, um,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: you know, uh, Bill Raftery's already like the, the college basketball,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: those guys are the Johnson does football as well. Um,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: and you know, I mean, nobody beats the Red Sox
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: tandem between Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy back in the day,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: RIP Jerry Remy and Don Orsillo does the Padres now. Um, Oh,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: it's not just a lean. I'm giving out a play
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: on the Clemson Cal game. I think it's, it's a
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: pretty good play. I think, um, Yeah, right. Well, you
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: don't like Michaels, but him needing to retire now implies
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: that he's too old for the job, which is not
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: really the case. It's just he does not have a
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: style that people like. You know what I mean? So
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: you should have been just saying he shouldn't have the
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: job decades ago as well. You know what I mean?
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: All right. Baltimore and New York. I've only talked about
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: two fucking games here so far, and they're both in
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: one single doubleheader. Baltimore and New York also playing a
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: doubleheader here. The Yankees have nothing to play for. They're
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: locked into the number one wildcard spot. Baltimore is also
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: eliminated now, although Baltimore has a rest edge here because
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: they last played two days ago. They swept the doubleheader
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: against the Blue Jays two days ago after the game
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: got rained out in the prior game. Baltimore swept the
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays, and they still got eliminated. So what is
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: their mindset going to be here? That's the question to
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: me because I do like Baltimore in this game.
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: I think they have the better starter here.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are going with a bullpen game. in game one,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees have no reason to play here, whereas Baltimore,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: at the very least, they're playing the Yankees. You know
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: what I mean?
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: This is their final series of the season.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: You want to go out and actually perform well, you
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, if you have any sense of pride.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: My question is, Baltimore coming off that big sweep of
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays, which kept them alive momentarily in the
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: wildcard race, only to get eliminated anyway with how the
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: results panned out yesterday when they didn't even play. What
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: is their mindset going to be here?
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: That's the question.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Although they have the rest edge, and I think they
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: have the better pitching setup in this game. So I
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: am leaning Baltimore in this game one here, which is
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: in the late afternoon. And this almost made the card
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: for me, actually. I just think we've got to tread
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: lightly here on this last day. The Yankees do have
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They only used two guys out of
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen is in all right
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: shape right now. They're number four, but they're actually the
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: number two bullpen right now. Baltimore is number 12. Baltimore's
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: bullpen's not bad. Yankees have the better offense. They're ranked
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: 13th right now. Baltimore, although Judge is out, keep that
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: in mind. Baltimore number 22, tied with Philadelphia. Baltimore's got
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Trevor Rogers pitching in this game. game. He's been decent.
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: 4.07 ERA. 1.18 whip is pretty good.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: After a bad start to the season, he's been good
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: for a while now. Not really as good on the road, though. 4.48
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He is in good form, though, recently. His
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: last two starts, or actually, this whole month he's been good.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, what am I saying? He has a 32-2
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. this month is that good um yeah
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: he's in command right now and he just had an
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: eight inning one run performance against Milwaukee 10 strikeouts one
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: walk and he got Brian Bayo to basically and he
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: lost the game anyway somehow um and even the game
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: he gave up some runs against Toronto he gave up
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: a few home runs got kind of unlucky there he
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: didn't pitch that badly in that game either so Rodgers
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: is in good form right now He's got a pretty
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, low enough. His walk rate's not bad
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: at all. Strikeout rate is decent. Pretty good numbers here. 3.9
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio.
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: That is solid. 8.3 strikeout per nine.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Not terrible.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Rodgers against the Yankees is also not bad.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: 67 at bats.
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: He sold them to a 239 average.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: 696 OPS, although a 13 to 10 strikeout walk ratio
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: is not very good.
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: But everything else here looks good, so I do think
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: Rodgers should have the upper hand over.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: The Yankees looking like they're starting Brendan Beck, who is
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher who has really bad numbers this year
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: as well. He's 27, and he's only made three appearances
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: so far. He's made one start so far, which I
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: guess was this... I don't even know which game that was.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: He's only made three appearances. I have no idea which
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: one of these was a start, to be honest. He
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: did just throw one shutout inning against the Red Sox
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: at one point, which I think was in relief.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been very good, though. He's allowed basically one
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: run an inning. He's got an even strikeout walk ratio,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: one ratio, which is terrible. Almost one walk per inning,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: so I don't consider that to be trustworthy, even though
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: the Yankees' bullpen might come in and maybe hold down
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: the fort here. I would play Baltimore in this one.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe Baltimore first five, but you're getting the rest edge
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: with Baltimore. Rodgers should be the.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: The pitcher that has the advantage in this one. You're
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: getting them as an underdog too. So yeah, like I said,
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: this one almost made the cut for me. Yankees have
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: 77% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them though.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: And they're around minus 130 something. But they're going to
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: be the public side. I mean, the public's not really
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: going to want to play Baltimore. Again, my real concern
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: with it is that I don't know what Baltimore's mindset
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: is going to be after they just got eliminated, despite
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: not even playing yesterday and coming off a big series. Now,
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are coming off a big series as well.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Even though it didn't wind up mattering, they did beat
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: the Rays.
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: In that series, three out of four.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Sang at home off of that, but that was a
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: pretty big series for them anyway. Probably more meaningful than
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: this series, at least. And the Yankees were not able
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: to win the division, despite winning three out of four there.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: This total is also six and a half, and the
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: money is kind of leaning under in this one. Again,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: it seems crazy, but some of it I think has
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: to do with the weather situation up here. Hornets commentary team,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Eric Collins. I think I've heard clips of him. Yeah,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: I probably agree with that.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: The second game here, Baltimore, New York. Baltimore has Brandon
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Young as their listed starter in game two. Remember, game two,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: we don't know what the bullpen situation is going to
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: look like coming out of game one. Brandon Young, he's
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: been all right this year. 3.62 ERA, 1.36 whip. He's
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: actually a little bit better on the road. 3.27 road ERA.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: He's been decent over his last two starts. He gave
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: up three runs total in 11 innings there. His walk
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: rate has been kind of an issue, though. That's been
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: the one thing that's holding him back is he's walking
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: too many guys. His strikeout rate in the season is
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: not good, although recently he's been striking more guys out.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: But over the course of the season, kind of a
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: bad strikeout rate, bad walk rate. The hit rate's all right,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: but there's not a lot to really love here. 2.2
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio for him, not very good. 7.5 strikeouts
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: per nine, not really good either. He's not good against
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: the Yankees either, although it's not a huge sample.
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: 17 at-bats.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: 3-2 strikeout walk ratio,. 294 average, 1,015 OPS. Those numbers
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: are not particularly good, obviously. Even though it's a small
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: sample size, most of the Yankees bats have faced them.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Yankees on the other side going with a bullpen game
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: in that one. It's looking like, at least, or something
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: like that, where it looks like they're going with two
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: bullpen games. I don't know what they're doing, man. They
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: might bring somebody up because I think you're allowed to
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: bring up I think you get two additional roster spots
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: in a doubleheader. I don't know if the rules change
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: in September or not because you have the expanded rosters anyway.
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are getting the money in this one too.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: 72% of tickets, 90% of the cash on them. They're
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: about minus 130-something. In this game, I think I would
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: lean over. Young doesn't have good stats against the Yankees.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: The Yankees' pitching setup might not be good, especially after
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: going to the bullpen game in the first game of
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: the series. This is another low total, 6.5%. Things getting
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: ridiculous late in the season. I mean, in the playoffs,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: you do see totals like that because you get really
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: good pitching matchups, and it's cooler out, so it's not
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: unheard of in the playoffs. But in some of these
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: games with these pitching matchups, it just aren't even good.
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: It's crazy to have totals like this. I like the
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: over in this one.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: 70% of tickets, 88% of the cash on the over,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: so the money seems to agree with that. Although, if
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: you do try to play that, that's game two, Baltimore
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: and Yankees. I think you're kind of playing with fire.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: You don't exactly know what the pitching is going to
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: look like there, but it seems like Young is not
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: really going to be that good in the game. Whatever
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are doing is probably not going to be
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: that good. Plus, you're going to have used bullpens after
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: game one, so those are my thoughts on that game.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I'm being real selective here. Pittsburgh, Detroit, this one almost
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: made my card. It would be mostly kind of just
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage thing, though, if I was going to
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: do it. The rest advantage lies with Detroit here. Detroit,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: their season is over. They just had a bad series
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: against the Nationals. They're staying at home. They might show up,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: at least in Detroit. They're not as bad as their
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: record looks. I know some of what they accumulated statistically
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: was still with Scooble, but Detroit still has a very
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: positive run differential, and that means they're better than their record.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: And Pittsburgh, you know, I mean, what does Pittsburgh have
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: to play for?
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: At least Detroit has the home crowd to play for,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: and also Pittsburgh played yesterday, and they won that divisional
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: series against the Cardinals. Now, they are hot. Right now
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: they've won six of their last seven or whatever, but
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: part of that was sweeping the Royals at home, and
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: then they beat the Cardinals at home. I mean, that's
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: not particularly impressive. I think Detroit is a better team
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: than both of those teams. Detroit has the better bullpen,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: and they're rested here, so Detroit has that advantage as well.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Detroit
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: is number 13 in bullpen, Pittsburgh 18th. So Detroit is
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: better in that department, plus rested. Pittsburgh is number six offensively,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Detroit 14th, so Pittsburgh does have the edge there. Pittsburgh's
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: going with Bubba Chandler. He's a little bit all over
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: the place, man. He's still young. I think he does
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: have some talent. His main issue is the walks. He
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: walks too many guys.
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: He's got a 4.34 ERA, 1.37 whip. He is actually
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: a little bit better on the road, 4.28 road ERA.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Not really in good form offensively, Recently, though, he's been
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: very mediocre this month, even though his team has won
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: his last three starts. Failed to make it five innings
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: last time out. His walk rate's been a little bit
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: high still.
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: He's been mediocre.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: That's just the only way to put it. His hit
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty low on the season. His walk rate's
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: too high. His strikeout rate is not really that good either.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio's really bad at 1.8%. Although last
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: year in a limited sample, he was very, very good.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: So I expected that he was going to come into
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: this season and be quite good, but he hasn't really
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: lived up to that. But he might at some point.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he is still really young here. 8.2 strikeout
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: per nine is all right.
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: So he has okay strikeout stuff.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Chandler against Detroit, I believe they've never faced him before. So,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: you know, I like Detroit in this game, but it's
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit sketchy because Chandler– is a little bit
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: better on the road and maybe pitches well here. Cause
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: he's facing a lineup that's never faced him before. and
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: he does have some talent there, so maybe he does
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: pitch okay here. Detroit's got Jackson Jobe pitching. I'm not
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: entirely sold on him, but he does have a 3.9 ADRA, 1.2 whip,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: which isn't too bad. He's not as good at home, though,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: so that kind of scares me in this game as well. 5.02
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: home ERA, but he's been good recently, and one of
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: those games was at home against Colorado, although we know
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: they're not as good of an offense when they're on
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: the road. He then pitched well on the road as
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: well against the White Sox. He's actually been good in
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: every start in September.
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: He's been good.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: He's got a high strikeout rate in September and very
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: few walks. 3.12 ERA this month as well. So he's
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: definitely been solid. And he's gone at least five innings
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: in all three starts. Hasn't allowed that many hits either.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: He does have a reasonably low hit rate on the season.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate is pretty good.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: So he does appear to have strikeout stuff, especially recently. 3.1
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 9.5 case per nine. Solid. I mean, yeah,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: maybe Job actually is fairly good. He has actually... faced
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh before. I don't know when that was, but he's
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: been okay against them. They have 15 at-bats against them,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: so it was probably one appearance somewhere. No strikeouts, three
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: walks isn't good, but they also have no extra base
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: hits against him. 267 average at 656 OPS. So he
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: has been pretty good against them. He faced them this
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: year actually in August at Pittsburgh. That's pretty impressive to
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: go into Pittsburgh and hold them to one run in
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: five to third innings because they are a prolific home offense.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: So that was good. Although Job was a little bit
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: wild in that one. He had three walks issued in
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: that one, but his walk rate has kind of gone
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: down recently too. So he is in better form right now.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: I like Detroit in this one. It was close to
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: making the cut for me. The money seems to agree
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: with me on this. 51% of tickets, 72% of the
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: cash on them. You're looking at basically a pick-em. I
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: would go full game on this because they have the
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: rest edge, and their bullpen is the better one anyway,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: so that's how I would play this game. The total
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: is 7.5 or 8 here. 53% of tickets on the under,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: 64% of the cash on the over. I don't have
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: a great feel for the total in that one. I mean,
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: I guess you could make the argument the pitching is
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: a little bit sketchy on both sides here, maybe. But
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit's the better way to look there. I
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: think they're the better team. I think Pittsburgh looks better
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: than they actually are in the recent run of beating
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: bad teams. And maybe the home team will just have
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: a little bit more motivation here between two teams that
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: have nothing to play for at this point. All right,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. Tampa Bay has nothing to play
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: for at this point. They already clinched the AL East,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and I think they already clinched the number one seed
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: in the American League too, so they have nothing to
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: play for. Philadelphia, they do have something to play for.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: As I mentioned, they could still actually not make the playoffs.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: It's unlikely that that will happen, but Arizona's still there.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Arizona just got to sweep the Rockies, so Philadelphia's in
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit of danger right now. So Philadelphia does
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: need to get some wins here. On the surface, at least,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: it looks like they do have the better starting pitcher here, Philly,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: although it looks kind of like it could be a
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: pitching duel in this game, though, and this is one
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: where I'm not as surprised that the total is as
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: low as it is here. Philadelphia's coming off losing to
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, but they are staying at home, so there
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: is that, at least. Philadelphia losing to the Brewers, I mean,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: there's no shame in that. The Brewers have pretty much
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: wrapped up the one seed, I'm pretty sure. I think
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: they have, like, a three-game lead over the Dodgers now,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: and I think they might have the.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: They may have the tiebreaker, I'm not sure, but it
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: looks like Milwaukee is going to be the number one
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: seed in the NL. Philly used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is not really that good. Tampa does have
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. Tampa used three yesterday. Tampa is,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: of course, coming off of that series against the Yankees
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: and now traveling up to Philadelphia. Coming off a big
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: series against the Yankees where Tampa did clinch the division.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: I believe they wrapped up the number one. AL seed
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: a while ago as well and now they're I guess
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: when they wrapped up the division they pretty much did
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: that simultaneously I think because they have the best record
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: in the American League it's just that they're in a
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: division that has like three of the top records in
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: the American League are all in this division between Tampa
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: New York and Boston yeah so Philadelphia has more to
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: play for the travel spots a little bit better the
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: staying at home both teams coming off big series that
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: this is going to mean a little bit more to
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia here Tampa does have the better bullpen, though. They're
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: ranked third, although I still don't think they're that good,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: but they're probably like a top 10 bullpen.
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia is not. Philadelphia is 19th.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is a good offense as well. They're number eight.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia tied in 22nd with Baltimore, although Philadelphia is a
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: bit better at home.
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: Freddy Peralta is getting the start for Tampa Bay.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been that good on the season, but most
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: of the bad was when he was on the Mets,
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: and it seemed like maybe he just wasn't motivated because
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: he's definitely been better, at least with Tampa Bay. He's
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: got a 4.56 ERA, 1.33 whip, although I told you
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: that he's not this bad. He's not that old. He's
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: only 30 years old. He was good when he was
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee, so this season that he's had seemed like
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: it was just, I don't know, the environment that he
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: was in was just not good. He hasn't been good
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: on the road, though. 5.81 road ERA, so that's kind
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: of bad. He's been pretty good this month, though. He's
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: got a 1.19 ERA this month, and his team has
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: won his last five starts, and he hasn't allowed more
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: than one run in any of them. So, yeah, he's
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: clearly pitching better, even though he always has some issues
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: with walks, but it's not too bad right now, and
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: his hit rate's really low recently. His strikeout rate's okay recently,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: so he is pitching pretty well right now. He's done
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: some of that against some good offenses in there, too.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: He's got a low-ish enough hit rate now on the season.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is not great, but a lot of
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: that was with the Mets. His strikeout rate is somewhat
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: okay as well. He's been way better with Tampa, though.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: He has a 2.5 strikeout walk ratio on the season,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: but with Tampa, it is above 3. Strikeout per 9
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: is 8.4 on the season. It's actually gone down, believe
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: it or not, with Tampa. So Tampa, they got some
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: good pitching coaching in Tampa, man. It seems like pitchers...
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: Tend to do pretty well in that organization. Freddy Peralta
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: against Philly. They've seen a lot of him because he
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: spent most of his career in the National League. 120,
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: 124 at bats, 43 to 15 strikeout walk ratio. And
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: of course he was on the Mets this year too.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: 43 to 15 strikeout walk ratio, 226 average allowed. So
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: the ratio is not good. The batting average allowed is low.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: But they've hit him for power. They have 10 home
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: runs against him. 834 OPS.
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: That's not really that good.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Bryce Harper probably has the best numbers here out of
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: any of these guys in a decent-sized sample. He's got
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: three of the 10 home runs as well. So does Schwarber,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: but Schwarber's average against him is not as good. But
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I still kind of lean towards Peralta
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: pitching all right here. Christopher Sanchez, though, is on the
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: other side for Philly. Good season from him, 2.93 ERA, 1.22 WIP.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: I think he's actually the worst of the three pitchers
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: out of Wheeler, Luzardo, and Sanchez.
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Sanchez, he's the one that puts the most guys on base,
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: but he's been really good at home, 2.21 home ERA.
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: He pitched well on his last start against the Mets,
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: although he was.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Kind of shaky the prior two starts against Washington and Houston.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: The only one of those starts that was at home
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: was the worst one against Houston. But generally, he is
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: better at home, so I'm going to kind of ignore
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: that a little bit. But he was too hittable in
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: those bad two starts there. However, he's still been fairly good,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: at least command-wise, on the month here. He's been too hittable.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: So I think he's changed the way that he's pitching.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Like I said, he used to be kind of walk-heavy.
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: And really unhittable.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: But he's kind of changed that. Where now his hit
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: rate is not that good. It's like one per inning.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Which is really not good. But he's gotten his walk
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: rate way down. And his strikeout rate is high. And
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: he gets a lot of ground balls. But that means
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: he is a little bit of a contact pitcher. Although
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: he does have a really good strikeout walk ratio. Five.
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: Which is like a.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Pretty much elite number there. He's really not walking guys.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: And he does strike out a lot of guys. 9.9
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine.
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: That is high.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Tampa Bay, they are actually really good.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: I forgot what I looked at earlier. He dominates Tampa Bay.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: They have 38 at-bats against him, no extra base hits,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: no walks, seven strikeouts, 132 average, 263 OPS. So it
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: does look like Sanchez will have the upper hand in
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: this matchup. I think... Probably Philadelphia first five is the
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: right way to look at this, but they've moved all
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: the way up to a minus 170 Moneyline favorite here.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: If you're going to play the first five, you're going
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: to be laying a half run, but I think that
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: might be the best way to play this game is
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: to just lay the half run in the first five
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: with Philly. They're the team that has more motivation here,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: doesn't have to travel. Coming off, well, both teams are
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: coming off losses, but Tampa just has literally nothing to
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: play for at this point. And Sanchez looks like he
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: has the matchup edge over Peralta. Although I would still
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: also not disagree with an under in this game, 79%
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the over 60% of the cash on
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: the under, but you're looking at a six and a half.
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: What else is new?
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: You're up in the Northeast or it's getting cool out
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: and you might have some nor'easter effects here too. I
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: thought it was mostly going to affect Massachusetts though, but
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: it looks like it's moving up the coast maybe because
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: it was in that South Carolina game, coastal Carolina last night.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. Um, But that's not what a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: nor'easter is. Isn't that a hurricane? A nor'easter in Massachusetts,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it means it develops up off the
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: northeast and then it slams the Massachusetts coast. Unless we're
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: dealing with two different storms happening at once.
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: I don't know what's happening.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: But I know somebody's controlling.
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: The weather probably, man.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: Because since.
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: It's the first time since.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Like four decades ago that we had no Atlantic hurricanes
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: during the entire year up through like late September, like
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: up through the end of summer pretty much.
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: I don't get it, man.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Anyway, yeah, I still agree with the under in this game,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: although six and a half, you know, but like I said,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: all week I've been saying that it is a long-term
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: winning strategy to play under six and a half totals
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: in baseball, so... I don't love it because you don't
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: get the key number, but it is what it is.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: I probably do lean that way. That's probably not the
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: strongest under opinion that I would have. I think the
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: Philly run line in the first five is actually the
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: stronger play in that game. All right.
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: Dirty Sock, what's up?
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: Um, yes, that under, um, I, I disagreed with Liberty.
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Uh, the money was on Liberty, but I, that was
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: a game I would not have had money on whatsoever.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Like there's just absolutely no way I don't play on these.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: I Cause they seem to always step it up. Like
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: they get to play on ESPN at home. It's always
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: a big deal. Problem was, I think the crowd was
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: kind of not at the game because the weather was
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: so bad, which I forgot to take into account, but
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: the weather just, it made that game like unbettable, the weather,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: like you have no idea what that weather is going
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: to do in that game. And I'm kind of pissed.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I didn't play the Falcons or put them in my
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: pick five or whatever. Obviously I picked them in my
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: pickums and whatever. Um, My opponent had B. John Robinson
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: in fantasy, so that's not great, but he also played
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: the Packers defense. They put up negative six, which kind
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: of took away from Robinson scoring 35 against me. I
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: got 19 from Watson, though, so, you know. But, yes,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: I would not have played Liberty. I don't know what
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: you're doing with that play, especially if you parlayed. That
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: would have been a horrible parlay to make. Um, even
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: though I think most parlays are horrible, but Liberty was, yeah,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: not something I wanted anything to do with at all.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: They're the better team over Coastal Carolina. That's why they
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: were favored.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: Um, I did, I did not like it though.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: All right. Um, let me see here. I was disagreeing
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: with some professionals on that though. Why, why would Coastal
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: be their most hated rival?
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: It makes no sense. Um, I don't get it.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Um, they're not in the same state. Doesn't make sense
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: to me. Uh, they might've been in the same conference
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: at one point. I have no fucking idea, but I'm
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: pretty sure I think Liberty's like biggest rival. I'm pretty
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: sure is James Madison and they played them earlier in
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: the season.
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: I think that's their biggest rivalry.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: I have no idea.
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: Um, that makes no sense to me.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: All right. Well, yeah, but yeah, I mean, I still
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: would not have, I would not have put money on
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: that game at all. Um, I was very selective yesterday.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Let me see.
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati and Toronto.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: No.
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: New York, Mets, Washington. There were way too many games.
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: This is so bad. We're almost at an hour.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: And because of all these fucking doubleheaders, I've talked about
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: almost no games here. Washington and the Mets, neither team
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: is going anywhere. Washington's returning home from a road trip.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: It was a good road trip where they beat the
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: Cardinals and the Tigers. Four and two road trip coming
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: back home from that. They had yesterday off, so Washington
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: does have a rest advantage here because the Mets played yesterday.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: But you know me, I don't like return home spots.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: I think they're negative. I think you have to get
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: back to home life. I think it could be a distraction.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Not really sure Washington's really going to get up for
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: a series against the Mets. I mean, I know it's
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: a divisional series, but the Mets are still in last
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: place in the division. The Mets did have to play yesterday, though,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: and they were in Texas, and now they're having to
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: go to Washington from Texas. The Mets did not win
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. They used three relief pitchers. The Mets
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: do have the better bullpen still, even with that usage.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: They're number six in bullpen. Washington is really bad at
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: number 27. I think they're worse than that. Washington is
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They're number three. The Mets are number 24.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: So Washington does have the better hitting here. The Mets
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: don't have a listed starter because it was going to
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: be Christian Scott. He would be next up. to pitch here,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: but he's hurt now. So I don't know what the
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Mets are going to do. I don't know if they're
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: calling somebody up. I don't know if they're going to
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: go with a bullpen game here. It might be Robert Stock.
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: He's our favorite.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's going to be him in this game.
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: I have no clue.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Whatever the Mets are doing, yeah, it's probably not going
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: to be good. And it's not going to be as
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: good as Andrew Alvarez, who's pitching for Washington. Alvarez is
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: actually pretty good, man. And I had said that earlier
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: in the season when his numbers didn't look that good. 3.17 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: He still puts a few too many guys on base,
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: but he's definitely not bad. He's got a 3.41 home ERA,
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: which is not bad. He hasn't allowed a run in
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: his last 13 innings, which was against Anaheim and then
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: at St.
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: Louis. I know those are not really good offenses.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: He struggled a bit against the Dodgers the game before that,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: but three of his last four starts have been shutouts.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: One against Miami prior to that. Yeah, he's in good
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: form right now. He's pitching well. He's had a bunch
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: of strikeouts recently. His walk rate's been a little bit questionable. But, yeah,
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: if you have three shutouts over a four-start span, you're
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: doing something right. And he's gone fairly deep into every
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: one of those starts, too. All the shutouts, he went
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: at least six innings in them. He has a low
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is really
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: the one issue with him, like I said. He's a
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: little bit wild. His strikeout rate's decent. His ground ball
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: rate is actually pretty good as well. 2.2 strikeout walk
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: ratio because he walks way too many guys, which is
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: not great. 8.9 strikeout per nine. That's pretty good. So
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: there are more things to like about him than not. Now,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: the Mets, I believe they've seen him before, and he's
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: been pretty good against the Mets. 37 at-bats, 216 average allowed,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: 680 OPS, 9.3 strikeout walk ratio. They do have a
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: couple of home runs off him from the two guys
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: that you would absolutely expect, Lindor and Soto. But yeah,
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's pretty normal there. Alvarez does pretty well
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: against the Mets. So despite the fact that Washington's returning
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip, which I don't like, I
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: think I'd have to lean Washington first five here. I
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: hate the road trip return spot, but the money's agreeing
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: with me on this. Alvarez would be, I think, the
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: better of the matchup over whatever the hell the Mets
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: are doing here. 53% of the tickets are on the Mets,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: 54% of the cash on Washington. Obviously, I would not
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: include Washington's bullpen. At least you got the rest edge.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: I still don't want to play a team in a
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: return home spot, but I think Washington would be the
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: lean here. You're getting them as an underdog. Full game, like, Really,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: should the Mets really be favored like this? Minus 130-something
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: on the road when you have no idea who their
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher even is?
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: Probably not.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: However, what I will say is, yet again, it looks
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: too easy to play Washington. Like, I don't even think
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: the public is really playing the Mets here. Like, why
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: would you? Why would the public be like, oh yeah,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: the Mets, and we don't even know who's starting for them,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: and they're laying a price, a favorite price on the
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: road against a better hitting team that has a better
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: record than them. That would not be something the public
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: is doing. So the odds makers are telling you The
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: Mets are actually the better team here, so that does
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: scare me a little bit. That plus the road trip return. So, yeah,
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: that's not going to be a game I'm going to
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: get involved in. The Big South, yeah, before they were
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: in FBS. All right, yeah, so it's an old-standing rivalry.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know if maybe that rivalry is diminished a
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: little bit. But doesn't that mean it's a rivalry on
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina's side too, though?
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: And they were the home team there.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I didn't understand why the professionals
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: were on Liberty in that game yesterday. Their argument literally
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: was Liberty is the better team. That's what their argument
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: was in that game yesterday. I'm like, yeah, no shit.
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: That's factored into the line. What are we doing?
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Although some of them were saying the line was too short, whatever,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. That game was 17-17 in the
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: third quarter. I haven't looked at what happened statistically in
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: the game, but whatever. Again, yeah, that is not a
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: game where I would have put money on Liberty. Putting
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: money on the road team in those isolated huge ESPN
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: games like that, you're just asking for it if you
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: do that. I've lost way too many games trying to
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: play the road team in games like that. That was
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: one where the public was probably more siding with Liberty
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: in that game too. Let me see. Cincinnati-Toronto is next,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: I think. Toronto got eliminated when they lost to the
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: Orioles in that doubleheader. They did have yesterday off, but
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: they're also returning home from a road trip where they
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: went to Texas and Baltimore. They had a bad road trip.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: They won one game in the entire stretch. They got eliminated.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: They're back home. They're playing the Reds. How excited do
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: you get from playing the Reds, man? Probably not very,
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: so I don't think this is a good spot for Toronto.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: An eliminated team returning back home. Yeah, they have the
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: rest edge. That's... The one advantage they have is the
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: rest edge, plus Cincinnati did just beat the Braves yesterday,
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: so Cincinnati could be in a little bit of a
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: letdown off of that. I'm not interested in either team
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: in this one, man. Both teams have negatives as far
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: as the situation is concerned here. Toronto will have the
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher in this game as well, though, so
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: that's I guess one other advantage Toronto has, plus Toronto
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen as well, and they're more rested.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati used five relief pitchers yesterday, which is not exactly good.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: They're also the 25th-ranked bullpen, while Toronto is ranked 17th,
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is better than that. Both offenses are terrible.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Toronto's number 26, Cincinnati 25. Excuse me, Toronto's 27, Cincinnati 25.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: So maybe there are going to be some unders in
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: this series. I don't think I'm going to do it
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: in this game, though. Nicolo Dolo is starting for Cincinnati.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: He has not been good. 5.04 ERA, 1.47 whip.
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: He's been really bad on the road.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: 5.97 road ERA with a 3.09 opponent batting average. Not good.
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit better this month.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: He's kept his team in games this month, at least,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: and he's faced really good offenses, mostly the Dodgers and
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: the Cubs this.
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: Month, so I guess give him credit for that.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: He actually historically is fairly good against the Dodgers, though,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason, but he's walked too many guys this month.
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: He's not allowed many runs. That is good.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: He went seven innings in his last two starts. That's
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: also good, but his strikeout rate's not very high. His
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: walk rate's too high, so there's a lot to still
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: dislike here as well his hit rate's too high on
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: the season above one per inning not good his walk
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: rate's okay his strikeout rate is not high strikeout walk
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: ratio 1.8 is abysmal he put up a five look
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: at the difference between last year and this year man
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: there's something wrong with him right now Because two years ago,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: he really started coming into form.
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: And he was good in 2022, too.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: And then 2023, it looks like he just got derailed
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: by an injury because he didn't pitch that much. 2024,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: he was kind of back in form. Last year, he
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: was actually really good. And this year, he's completely fallen
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: off a cliff. And he's only 28. I think he's
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: got something going on, some injuries. I know he was
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: dealing with finger blisters at the end of last year.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's what's going on or if
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: there's something else going on here. I don't know, man.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: It's just really crazy to see such a drop-off with
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: a guy that's fairly young from one season to the next.
• 50:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know what the hell is going on with him.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: And he's got a really low strikeout rate this year, too, 6.9.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: So his strikeout ability has completely fallen off a cliff
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: this year. I don't know what the hell.
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: Lodolo against, who the hell are we talking about here?
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: I already forget.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: This is Reds and Toronto, right? Well, Toronto's an ass offense,
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: so Lodolo's only faced them for six at-bats worth. They
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: have three hitters who have faced them. The only hits
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: are both singles from Miles Straw. One strikeout, one walk here.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: 333 average, 833 OPS allowed. Those are not good numbers,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: but it's a really small sample size. So I don't know.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that Lodolo is really going to be
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: that bad here because he's going from facing the Cubs
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: and the Dodgers to now facing a horrible Toronto offense.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: So Lodolo might actually not do too bad here. Jose
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Soriano is pitching for Toronto. He's definitely been the better
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: pitcher this year.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: 3.72 ERA.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: 1.26 whip is kind of just okay, though. He's usually
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: worse at home, but this year his splits have not
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: really been that significant. His ERA is a little bit
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: worse at home, but his opponent batting average is actually
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: better at home. He is not on Anaheim anymore. On Anaheim,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: it seemed like he was, for whatever reason, he was
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: worse at home with Anaheim fairly significantly, but those stats
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: have kind of evened out. This month, he's been okay
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: with his strikeout walk ratio here, but he's allowed some
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: runs here. I think it's a little bit misleading that
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: he has a bad ERA this month because he's not
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: really pitching as bad as that ERA makes it look,
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: given that he's had a decent amount of strikeouts, not
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of walks, and his hit rate's been okay.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, he's been very hard
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: to hit. His hit rate's really low. His issue is
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: the walks. He walks too many guys. That's the case
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: this year, too. His strikeout rate is okay. 2.3 strikeout
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, though, because, again, the walks are a huge
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: problem for him. 8.6 strikeout per nine is not bad, though.
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: Soriano against Cincinnati.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: This is going to be a weak offense that he
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: gets to face here. He's been pretty good against them.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: 36 career at-bats, 194 average allowed. However, the OPS is
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: not terribly low at 730 because they do have two
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: home runs off him from Bledet and Suarez. And six strikeouts,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: eight walks. That is obviously a really bad ratio. But still, overall,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: it looks like Soriano has the upper hand in this
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup here. Like, what the hell do you do
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: with a game like that? Oh, it looks like Toronto
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: has not announced a starter, actually. They have 66% of tickets,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: 89% of the cash on them. They're about a minus
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: 140 favorite here. Again, there are a lot of conflicting factors.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: Toronto's got the rest edge, but they're returning home from
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: a road trip, so they have an advantage and a
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: disadvantage there.
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot off of yesterday.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Probably the negatives and positives kind of cancel each other out,
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: so maybe that does leave you with the matchup, and
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: if it is Soriano... maybe Toronto is the right move,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: and they do have the better bullpen here, but if
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: it's not him.
• 53:12
  Speaker 5: Maybe the over makes more sense.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: If it's going to be Lodolo against a pitcher that's
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: not as good as Soriano, then maybe the over makes
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit more sense. I don't know. Seven and
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: a half is the total on this game, and the
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: money is slightly indicating on the over, but again, that
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: is not a game I'm interested in. If you play
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: the over, you've got to be worried about two really
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: bad offenses there.
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: Atlanta and Miami.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Miami is returning home from a road trip, a long one,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: where they went to Arizona, San Diego, and Chicago, and
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: they have no time off. Coming back home, Braves also
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, but this is a bad spot for Miami,
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: even though normally, yeah, they're going to get up for
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: a series against the Braves. They get to finish their
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: season facing the top team in their division, although they
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: can't spoil Atlanta's season, really. Atlanta's going to be in
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. I believe they're pretty much locked into the
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: number three. seed here they've won the division already um
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Miami may still get up for the series but still
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot and eliminate a team like
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Miami coming off another big series against the Cubs close
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: game yesterday where they almost had the sweep against the
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Cubs I'm not loving it I've you know not uh
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: what what is that what is what is the I'm
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: loving it is that McDonald's I don't I should know
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: my fast food slogans yeah I'm not McDonald's in this
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: game Atlanta did just lose to the Reds, and now
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: they get to go out on the road. So maybe
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: it's a focus spot for Atlanta here, getting to leave home,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: go out on the road.
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: And fix some things that went wrong in that series.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: The problem with that is that Atlanta just has no
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: real motivation here. They're going to start looking ahead to
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: the playoffs at this point because I don't think they
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: can move out of their playoff seating. So there's no
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: motivation for Atlanta here. And it shows because Atlanta's going
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen game, basically, in this game. Although their
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: bullpen is good. They have the number two bullpen here.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: I think they're really like the number three or four,
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: as I keep saying. Miami's number 11, but their ERA's
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: over four, which I don't think is really that good.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: So Atlanta does have the better bullpen here. Miami is
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: number nine offensively. Atlanta's number 12. I think Atlanta's the
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: better offense here, too, though. As far as the usage yesterday,
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: Miami used three relief pitchers. Atlanta Whoops. I don't know
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: why I always click the A's, man. It's something with
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: the A-T, like, throws me off. Atlanta used two guys yesterday.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: One was Smith-Shawver, who's been in their rotation. So Atlanta's
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: bullpen's pretty clean. They're going to go with a bullpen
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: game here, it looks like, although I thought it was
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Grant Holmes. It was supposed to be Grant Holmes pitching
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: this game. So, you know, Grant Holmes might get into
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: this game, so that's something to consider, that Atlanta may
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: put Holmes in this game, and if they do... He's
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: actually pretty good against Miami, I'm pretty sure, although he's
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: not that good on the road. I'm just speculating because
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Holmes would be next up in the rotation. I'm pretty sure,
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: and I don't think he's hurt, so Holmes might get
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: into this game, so just be aware of that.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: Ray Kerr is listed as their starter here.
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: He's had a good season out of the bullpen, but
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: he's going to be the opener here, and he hasn't
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: pitched that much, actually. He's only pitched 15 and a
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: third innings here. He's only been on the roster since August,
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: but he's been good since then. You know, Atlanta's pitching
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: still might not be too bad here. Miami's going with
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Uri Perez, who I like him. I think he's good,
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't been good recently, and I'm wondering if
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: maybe just the amount of innings he's thrown this year
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: has kind of worn him down a bit. He's got
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: a 4.14 ERA, 1.27 whip. Yeah, two would be really bad. 1.27 whip,
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: not too bad. If you look at what he's done recently,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: he hasn't pitched well this month. He's had too many walks.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is still good, though, but he's been
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: very hittable. His ERA is almost nine this month, and yeah,
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: he's faced a couple good offenses in here. Dodgers, Cubs,
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: but that's not the reason why his numbers are so
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: bad this month. In fact, he was bad against Kansas City,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: the Mets, and San Diego this month. That's not a
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: good sign, so he's not in good form, but I
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: am still speculating that maybe it's the innings pitched.
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: He's up to 150.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: I believe that's more than he's ever thrown in his career,
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: so he might be wearing down at the end of
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: the season here.
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: He is a high strikeout guy.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: He throws hard. He's got a high strikeout rate. He's
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: hard to hit. His problem is the walks, as you
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: would expect with a guy with his type of profile.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: He's too wild. 2.4 strikeout walk ratio this year, which
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: is worse than what he posted the last couple years. 9.7
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Ks per nine is about in line with what he's
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: done the last couple of years. Perez against Atlanta, though,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: he's not good against Atlanta. They have 71 at-bats against him,
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: 380 average, 1,062 OPS, 16-6 strikeout walk ratio. So I
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: do not like how this sets up for Perez here.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: I think Atlanta might be the right side here, man.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: Perez might give it up here, even though you'd think
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Perez would have the upper hand over an Atlanta bullpen game.
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: It looks like Atlanta's undecided now. So it's hard to
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: gauge what Atlanta's actually going to do pitching-wise here. But
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: their bullpen is pretty good, and Atlanta does hit Perez.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: It is a return home spot for Miami with no
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: time off. Atlanta's coming off an ugly series. You know,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's still a risk because you don't know
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: what Atlanta's pitching is going to look like here. You
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: don't know what their motivation is really going to be here.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: The public is on Atlanta.
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: 74% of tickets. Only 56% of the cash on them.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: The money line, it looks way too easy to play
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Atlanta at minus 120-something, so I'm definitely not going to
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: do it. But, yeah, I mean, to me, it looks
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: like there are more indicators for Atlanta than not, although
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: maybe the better way to play this is to take
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: the over. 56% of tickets on the under, 91% of
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. Miami is a pitcher-friendly park,
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: but they're still in warm weather in Miami. I'm assuming
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: it's still going to be at least in the 70s there.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: And it's a total of eight, basically, or eight and
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: a half. I guess it's mostly eight, though. Yeah, and
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: Perez usually gets hit by Atlanta. Atlanta's bullpen game might
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: not work out. So maybe the over actually makes more
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: sense than anything else in that game. All right, Cleveland,
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, I would say that the over does not
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: make sense in this game. And in fact, I almost
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: was going to play the under in this game. But
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, it's more hitter-friendly there, and you'd be going
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: against the home road splits here if you do this.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Kansas City just lost to the White Sox. They're staying
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: at home here. I was correct about the White Sox
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: win yesterday at least. Kansas City staying at home here.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Now maybe they do want to get up and they
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: do want to play spoiler against Cleveland. Kansas City at
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: least was trying against the White Sox, and they got
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: embarrassed yesterday. So Kansas City, I do think they're going
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: to show up with motivation here. Cleveland needs to keep
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: winning because they're trying to win their division. They're atop
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: the AL center right now by one. But they're not
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: really in danger of missing. I think Cleveland has already
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: clinched a playoff spot, actually. I think Chicago has as well.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: I think it's guaranteed that the wild card is coming
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: from this division now, right? Because I already said the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays and the Orioles are eliminated now. So I'm
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: almost positive that the wild card has been clinched. from
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: the AL Central. It's just a matter of which one
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: of these teams is going to win the division and
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: which one of these teams is going to be the
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: wild card at this point. But Cleveland and the White Sox,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: I believe, are both in the playoffs at this point,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: which means the last AL playoff spot is going to
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: be decided in the West this weekend. So we will
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: see with both those teams playing against bad teams, I think.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Or no, at least one of the teams is. Let
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: me see.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: Anyway, Cleveland just beat the Red Sox in a.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Very low scoring series over the last few days.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: Now they're traveling to Kansas City.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: A little bit of a weird travel spot, I guess,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: but I mean, Kansas City is a divisional opponent, so
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: they're not unused to doing that. Now, Cleveland definitely has
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: some advantages here. Mostly their pitching is better. Cleveland's got
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They're They used four guys yesterday, though.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: Kansas City used five, though. Kansas City's a bad bullpen.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: They're ranked dead last. I think they're the second or
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: third worst bullpen.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: They're really bad.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is pretty good. They've been really good recently. Cleveland's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: kind of climbed up into that level where they're like
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: one of the top several bullpens at this point, even
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: though they're ranked number nine. They're a pretty good bullpen.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense is very bad, though. Like, Cleveland's done what
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: they've done this year with their pitching. Their pitching has
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: been quite good. Their hitting has been ass. They're number
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: 29 in offense. Kansas City is the better offense. They're
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: number 19. There should be maybe more offense in this
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: series because it is a more hitter-friendly ballpark now. I
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: don't think so in this game, though. These pitchers are
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: both pretty good. Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland. He's
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: had his best season, 3.63 ERA, 1.08 whip. He's not
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: as good on the road, though. That is a little
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: bit concerning, 4.79 road ERA. He's definitely in good form, though.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: He's had 40 strikeouts this month in 25 innings while
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: allowing 13 hits, only four earned runs for a 1.44
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: ERA this month and eight walks. He's been totally dominating.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: Allowed two or fewer runs in all of his starts
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: this month. After he had a bad end to August,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: he's been shredding. His strikeout rate has been ridiculously high
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: this month. All the games are at home, though, so
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: you've got to take that into account. The last time
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: he pitched on the road, he was awful. against anaheim
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: and they are a comparable offense to cleveland they're even
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: worse than cleveland so maybe that's not a good sign
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: although his previous road start was pretty good against the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: white socks um so i don't know but he is
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: generally not as good on the road his hit rate
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: is really low in the season his walk rate's not
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: bad either his strikeout rate is really high so all
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: those numbers are good 4.3 strikeout walk ratio is like
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: double what he posted for the Yeah, I mean, he's
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: had a really, really good season this year. 12.1 strikeouts
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: per nine. I don't know what he's doing differently, but
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate has reached another plane this year. Williams
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: against Kansas City is usually quite good, and 138 at-bats,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: a big sample. 196 average allowed, 644 OPS, but he's
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: allowed a lot of walks here. 32 strikeouts, 15 walks.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: So the walks are a bit of an issue, but
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: he is generally really good against Kansas City. So I
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: do still think he's going to pitch well here. Noah
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: Cameron on the other side for Kansas City, he's one
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: of their best pitchers.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: He's turned his season around. He's been pretty good.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: 3.92 ERA, 1.2 whip.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 5: He's not as good at home, though.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: He struggles in the stadium since they moved the walls in,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: which they shouldn't have done that because it's specifically killing him,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: at least, and he's one of their better pitchers. 4.58
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: home ERA, not great. He's in good form recently, too, though.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.52 ERA this month, although his team
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: has lost every one of the games that he's pitched.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Not entirely his fault, although he's allowed four runs in
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: two of the outings, but his overall numbers have not
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: been bad this month. His hit rate's low, his walk
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: rate's pretty low, his strikeout rate is high, so he's
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: not pitching badly. He's got a pretty low hit rate
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate is not great. Strikeout
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: rate is not great either, so those numbers aren't really
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: that good. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio is kind of mediocre. 8.1
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine also somewhat mediocre. But I think he's generally,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: I would say he's a good pitcher generally. And he's
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: going up against a bad Cleveland offense here. He's generally
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: had the upper hand against them. They have 50 at-bats
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: against them, 9-3 strikeout walk ratio, 260 average, 662 OBS allowed.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: I like the under in this one. That's what I
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: would do if I was going to play it. Close
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: to making the cut for me on this one. I
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: don't like Kansas City's bullpen, though. That is a problem,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland used a lot of their bullpen yesterday. I mean,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: the full game total is seven, so you're right on
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: that key number. I don't know if you're going to
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: be able to get a 7.5 without paying a lot
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: of juice on it. You know, I mean, you get
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: right on that key number 7. Maybe that is a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: decent approach still to just take the full game under,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: but Kansas City's bullpen could just completely take that thing out.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: So I'd want to go first 5 under in this one,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: but you're looking at 3.5.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 5: So I don't really want to do it, and the
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: home road splits do.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: Worry me a little bit, but I still think the
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: under is the best way to play this game. Probably
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: under first five is probably the best way to play this. But,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: you know, three and a half, I mean, I don't
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: want to do it. And the money's coming in on
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: the over. 57% of tickets, 87% of the cash on
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: the over. Depends on how much you buy these numbers
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: here that we see. The money's also back in Kansas City.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: 78% of tickets, 69% of the cash on Cleveland. Cleveland's
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: about a minus 130-something favorite here. Everybody knows Cleveland's got
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: to win, man, so the public will be probably playing
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in this one. You might have the argument for
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Kansas City in the first five. I don't think you
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: have much of an argument full game here because their
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: bullpen is so much.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: Worse than Cleveland's. I think you do have a first five.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: Argument to maybe play Kansas City like a money line
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: in the first five as an underdog here because Cameron
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: is not bad, so he might be able to kind
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: of duel and keep the game close with Williams, but... Yeah,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: those are my thoughts on that. If I was going
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: to play it, yeah, under I think is the much
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: better way to play that. But under first five would
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: be my lean in that one. Colorado at the White Sox.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: As I'm trying to get through these, and then I've
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: got to take a break and then talk about football.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: At least there's no WNBA for once. The White Sox
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: are returning home from a road trip, but it was
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: only a quick road trip to Kansas City. Now they're
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: returning home from that, and the White Sox get to
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: finish the season by playing the Rockies. So... And Cleveland
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: is playing the Royals, so both teams are playing bad
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: teams to finish the season here. But Chicago's got it
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: way easier against the Rockies, man. So Chicago may be
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: able to overtake Cleveland. I think Cleveland does have the— I
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: don't know who has the tiebreaker here, man, because that matters.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: As far as Cleveland having a one-game advantage, if they
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: have the tiebreaker, it's like they have a two-game advantage.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So basically the White Sox
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: would pretty much need to sweep Cleveland if they were
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: really going to overtake Cleveland. They could definitely do it.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: They could sweep Colorado here. Colorado, you know, I mean,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: it's the end of another bad season for them, another
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: 100-plus loss season. Colorado starting a road trip at least
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: off a bad home series, so maybe they will show
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: up a little bit more focused for starting a road
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: trip here. I don't know if it's good enough. Colorado's
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: bullpen is bad. They used four guys out of the
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. The White Sox used three. White Sox are
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. They're number 16. Rockies are number 26.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: Rockies are the better offense, although maybe not as good
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: on the road. They're number five. But again, remember, because
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: their numbers do get skewed because of the stadium they
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: play in. White Sox are number nine, tied with Miami.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: I would say we do have two pretty capable offenses here, though.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching for the Rockies. His season has
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: completely fallen apart. 5.36 ERA, 1.33 whip, not very good.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: He's also actually worse on the road still, believe it
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: or not. Outside of course field, 5.64 ERA. Brody, all right.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: He pitched well last time at home against Seattle, but
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: Seattle's offense has been putrid, so I don't know how
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: much we should really put into that. Is he returning
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: into form after a really, really bad stretch of six
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: starts in a row, or is it more likely that
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: he's going to continue to be bad? I kind of
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: think it's the latter, to be honest. I don't think
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: he's that good.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 5: It is what it is.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: The advanced analytics guys certainly don't think so. He's got
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: a high hit rate. That is worrisome. He gives up
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: a lot of home runs, although, again, Coors Field has
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: an effect on that. His walk rate's not too bad,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: but he also has a really low strikeout rate. His
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 2.5, is not great at all. 5.5
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout per night is really bad, so he definitely pitches
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: to contact. Sugano against the White Sox. They've basically never
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: seen him before. Only Acuna, not Ronald Acuna.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: Is it Ronald?
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: Is it Ronald? I can't even remember. The Braves Acuna?
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: I forget. This is Luis Angel Acuna. I don't know.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: He's got two names in one. He's the only guy
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: that's faced Sugano. He's 0 for 2 often with no strikeouts,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: no walks.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: But I don't know.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think Sugano is going to pitch that well here.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: Chicago obviously has the better starter here with Sean Burke.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: He's had a pretty good season. 3.4 ERA, 1.2 whip.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road, though. He's not as
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: good at home. 3.98 home ERA. So he is at
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: home here. He's come back into form, though, after he
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: had one really bad outing recently against Pittsburgh. And he
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: was kind of struggling in the month of August.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Three of his last four starts, now if you exclude
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: that bad Pittsburgh one, he's allowed one or zero earned
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: run in those three starts, so he is pitching better
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: right now. However, he's kind of getting away with putting
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: too many guys on base this month. He's walked a
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: lot of guys. He's given up a decent amount of
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: hits here. His strikeout rate's been okay, but he is
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit wild right now, so that's a little
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: bit concerning. He's thrown more innings, I think, than he
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: ever has before, so that's something to keep in mind
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: as well, that Maybe he's, like, fatiguing a little bit here.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate. His walk rate's not great.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is high, though, so he is a
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: good strikeout pitcher. Over the course of the season here, 2.9
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's decent. 9.6 strikeout per nine is
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Those numbers are all right for sure. Burke
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: against Colorado, they basically have no experience against him. McCarthy
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: and Norby have both faced him. They're both one for
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: two off him, so they're combined two for four off him.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: Both hits are singles, two strikeouts, no walks. There's not
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: a lot you can do with that information, really. Burke
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: is the better of the two pitchers. I mean, the
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: White Sox should be able to get this thing done,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: but you never really know. They're also laying way too
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: much of a price here, minus 230. Everybody knows they
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: need to win. That's going to jack up the price
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: on them. Colorado always gets disrespected in the market. Doesn't
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: mean you should play them in every single game, and
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: I rarely even play them ever.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 5: And when I do, it's usually at home.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: 94% of tickets, 77% of the cash on the White Sox.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: The money is fading them here. I mean, the over
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: might have more of an argument than trying to play
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: the side here. The full game total is at 8, 8.5.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: 73% of tickets, 84% of the cash on the over.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: White Sox should be able to get something off Sugano.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: even though it's hard to gauge because there's a lot
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: of unfamiliarity here. But I think Burke is in somewhat
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: worse form here recently. He's putting guys on base via
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: the walk. So these offenses are definitely capable. So I
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: think you might be able to get to the over
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: in this one. And you have one bad bullpen and
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: one okay bullpen. So, yeah, I mean, the over probably
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: is what makes the most sense in this game. And
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: that's probably what I have here. Although, of course, if
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: you think the White Sox are definitely going to win,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: although I'm not so sure about that, But the White
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: Sox are favored, at least, pretty heavily.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 5: And you also like the over.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: The White Sox team total over makes some sense, too,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: to just get runs off of this bad Colorado pitching here.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 5: You could do that, too. You're going to need them
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: to score six.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Runs, probably, if you do that, though. So that's not
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: exactly great.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: All right, St.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: Louis and Milwaukee. Milwaukee is returning home from a road trip,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: a long one, where they went to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: and they had a successful road trip.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: In fact, they won every one of those series.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: And Milwaukee, by the way, they had their first 100-win
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: season in franchise history. They just sealed that yesterday. So
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: they might be partying a little bit. Milwaukee is almost
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: guaranteed the number one seed at this point, I think.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: They just got 100 wins. Huge season for them. Return
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: home spot against a weak divisional opponent who's in second.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: To last place, St.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Louis. Not a good spot for Milwaukee. So my immediate
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: reaction to this is you've got to fade Milwaukee if
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: you're looking at this game. And Milwaukee did play yesterday,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: although St. Louis also did. Milwaukee is a really good
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: home team, but this could be a bad spot where
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: they get distracted.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: They don't really focus here.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: St. Louis is coming off a big series against Pittsburgh,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: but at least they're on the road here. They might
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: maintain their focus because they probably at least want to
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: show up for a series against Milwaukee today. Now Milwaukee
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen, so I would not really
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: want to fade them here. They did use four guys
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. It wasn't really any of their
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: better relievers yesterday. St. Louis, uh, used two or Susie
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: used three. Milwaukee is definitely the better bullpen though. They're
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: number seven. I think they're actually probably the third best bullpen. Uh,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: maybe fourth, sorry to Garrett and the Braves, but it's,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: you know, they're both neck and neck there though. Um, St.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: Louis is not even close. St. Louis is number 22.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is the better offense as well. They're number four. St.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: Louis is.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: 26th.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 5: Really not good.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: But the spot here, not great for Milwaukee. And the
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup is... I mean, Milwaukee does not have one
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: of their better starters on the mound. Let's put it
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: that way.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 6: St.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: Louis has Michael McGreevy starting here. He's a guy the
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys really don't like. But he's been reasonably decent. Good,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: fairly consistently at least. 3.84 ERA, 1.25 whip. He's slightly
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: better on the road, even though his home stadium is pitcher-friendly. 3.8
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: home ERA with a lower, excuse me, road ERA with
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: a lower opponent batting average on the road.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: He's pitching okay recently. He's not killing his team.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer runs than three starts in
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: a row now, although one of them last time out,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: he only went four innings. But he's not pitching that
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: badly here, except his walk rate's been bad. Maybe a
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: little bit questionable, but I guess the worst part of
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: this is he's just not a strikeout pitcher. He doesn't
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: have that high of a hit rate. His walk rate's
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: actually not bad. He doesn't really walk many guys. His
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is really low, though, and he gets a
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: lot of ground ball outs. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio, you know,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously that's not great. 6.2 strikeout per nine.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: He just doesn't strike out a lot of guys, man.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: It's not his game, so the advanced analytics guys don't
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: like it, but it is what it is. He's not
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: that bad. However, I'm not going to be able to
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: back him here because he's not good against Milwaukee. They
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: have 40 at-bats against him, a. 325 average,. 886 OPS.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: That's bad enough that I can't do it. 11-4 strikeout
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, so even though the spot looks really good
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: for St. Louis here, you're going to get them at
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: a huge underdog price. I don't think I could do
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: it here. Milwaukee is going with Robert Gasser. I mean,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: you might even be able to make the argument Gasser
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: is actually better than McGreevy.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: He's got a 4.01 ERA, 1.24 whip. He is good
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: at home, 3.62 home ERA. He was good last time
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: out against Baltimore, a seven-inning shutout. However, he walked three
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: guys and only had two strikeouts. So recently, he's been good.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: His last three starts, he's allowed one or fewer earned
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: run in all of them.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: And.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: Four of his last five, that's been the case. And
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: in the other one, he allowed two. He didn't really
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: go that deep into his two starts against Chicago, but whatever.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: That's a really tough offense to have to face. Although
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is pretty difficult as well. You know, I mean,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: with him, he's decent, I would say. He's been hard
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: to hit recently. His strikeout rate's not that good. His
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: walk rate's a little bit elevated here. He has a
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: decent hit rate on the season. His walk rate's not
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: too bad. But again, his strikeout rate's not really that impressive. 2.8
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 8.2 strikeout per nine. Those are okay numbers.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: Gasser against, I already forget, St. Louis, right? They're not
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: a good offense. They have not been good against Gasser either.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: In 36 at-bats, 167 average, 481 OPS, 6.3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: So that's the issue I have with this game is
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: Gasser appears to have the pitching edge here in this one,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: but St.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: Louis is in the better spot. So do with that
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 5: information what you want.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's really public, 94% of tickets, 92% of the cash
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: on them. The money fading them also has to do
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: with the fact the price is really high on them
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: at minus 190. I think maybe Gasser should not be
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: that heavy of a price, especially in a spot like
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: this for Milwaukee.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: Although I think if you're going to play St. Louis,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 5: you probably have to.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: Just do it first five and hope that McGreevy can
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: battle Gasser here, but I'm not sure if he's going
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: to be able to do it. You'd be able to
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: take them plus a run or maybe a half run, whatever,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: in the first five. It is a low total here, 8-7.5,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: a lot of low totals late in the baseball season.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 5: Money coming in on the over, though.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: There might be more arguments for an over than an
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: under here because I think both pitchers are not really
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: the greatest here. Maybe there's more of an argument for
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: an over than an under, but I don't know, man.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: It's a game I don't really want to deal with.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: It's one of those things where St. Louis looks like
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 5: they're in a really nice situation.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: But the pitching matchup does not favor them. All right,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back. I'll talk about the remaining five
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: games here. I still have a play I'm giving out
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: in one of these remaining ones, which maybe people have
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: been able to guess what it is. I think it's
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: a strong play.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 5: And i have another game where i have a strong.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: Lean at least in these remaining games i'll be right
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: back yep inside i want to kill myself We are
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: on an 0-7 run over the.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 5: Last two days after tonight.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: anything like this, man. With the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all, 0-4. I just have
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: not had a good season, man, with weekends.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: Slumped.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on and the slump continues.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: I'm going to.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: Burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: going on with the Bruins.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: March 8th?
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 5: Is that what it is?
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 5: Who even knows, man. I don't know what day it
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 5: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 5: Back with you after the.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: Worst day that I could possibly have.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 5: Back with you as I always am.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: not go well for me.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: 0-5, the worst month.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: That I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all. All right. Next game is Texas-Minnesota.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: I do have a lean in this one that almost
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: made the cut for me. Minnesota's returning home from a
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: road trip. They went out to the Angels and the Giants.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: Negative spot for them.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 5: Return home from the road.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: They got nothing really left to play for. I don't
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: know if they care that much about spoiling Minnesota. the
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: season for the Rangers. The Rangers, of course, have everything
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: to play for because they're trying to win the AL West.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: Houston has the tiebreaker against them, and they're currently tied.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: So currently Houston would be the winner here and make
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, and Texas would not. Texas has got to
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: win here, man. They did just end a losing streak.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: They finally beat the Mets yesterday. Now they're going out
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: on the road. Texas... The motivational edge definitely does stand
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: with Texas here. Texas used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't good, but it is probably better than Minnesota's.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: Minnesota does have a rest advantage, though, I forgot to mention.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: So that's another thing that's coming into play here. Even
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: though it's a negative spot for Minnesota, they are more
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: rested than Texas here. So I don't necessarily love fading
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: the rest edge here.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 5: Let me see here.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: But maybe that still might be the way you want
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: to go here because Minnesota, I mean... They don't have
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: much motivation here. They're in the return home spot. They
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: got a bad bullpen. They're number 28 in bullpen, even
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: though they are at least rested right now. But Texas,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: even with their struggles, they're still better than Minnesota in
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. They're number 20. Minnesota's the better offense, I believe.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: They're down to number 16, though, tied with the Red Sox.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 5: Texas is number 20, though.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: All right. The pitching looks like it is good in
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: this game, though, so I like the under more than
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: anything else in this game. Jacob DeGrom is pitching for Texas.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 5: Good season from him.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: 3.86 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 5: However, he's pretty bad on the road.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: 5.35 road ERA, so that is a concern if you
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: want to play the under here. He wasn't good in
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: his last start against a bad Toronto lineup either, and
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: that was at home. He didn't make it five innings.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: He walked four guys. He was definitely off in that game,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: but he did have four good starts in a row
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: leading up into that one. He seems to have some
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: random bad starts, but it does seem like he pretty
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: much bounces back after that, so maybe that will be
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: what happens here. He's got a pretty low hit rate.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not bad either. His strikeout rate's really high.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: He's allowed some home runs, and that's really been the problem,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: although actually even that number's not that bad at this point,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: 20 home runs.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 5: He's got a 4.6 strikeout walk ratio. That is strong.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: 11.1 strikeout per nine, still good. Obviously not what he
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: once was, but he's still pretty effective here.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 5: DeGrom against the Twins.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: Has been really good in 42 at-bats, although they only
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: have six hitters who have faced him. None of them
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: have really done much. Caratini's been the best against him.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Has two home runs against him and a double. All
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: the extra base hits come from him. And six out
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: of the seven hits Minnesota has all come from him.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: So if he can pitch around him, he might do
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: well here. He's got 12 strikeouts, four walks. Two of
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: those are Caratini as well. 167 average, 572 OPS allowed.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: So I do think DeGrom should pitch well here. My
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: favorite guy, Joe Ryan, is on the mound for Minnesota here.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: Every time I try to back him, he fucks me.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: So isn't that just great? Even though he is pretty good, 3.83 ERA, 1.18 whip.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit better at home, 3.76 home ERA.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: Although his opponent batting average is actually slightly worse at home.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: He had a recent stretch. Basically, this is the all-star break.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: It seems like he hasn't been quite right. He's not
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: going deep into these outings recently. Minnesota's lost every game
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: that he's started since then. He was hurt somewhere in
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: the middle here as well. He missed like a month.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: Since he's come back, I mean, I guess they're kind
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: of ramping him up a little bit start to start.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: So the last start, he did actually have a full-fledged start.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: He pitched okay.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 5: He pitched pretty well, actually, against Anaheim.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: So at least that's a good sign that maybe he
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: is coming back into form here after all that. His
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: hit rate is not as good as you would expect. It's...
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: Not that low. His walk rate is still low. His
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is still high. But he's been a little
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: bit more hittable than usual this year. Five strikeout walk
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: ratio is still good. Really good, actually. 9.8 strikeout per
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: nine is all right as well. Ryan against Texas. I mean,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: they're not the most intimidating lineup, and they have not
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: been good against him. In 51 at-bats, 176 average, 477 OPS,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: 17-3 strikeout walk ratio. So I do like the under here. Now, again,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: it's a full game total. This one, you look like
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: you can get a 7.5 at like FD and the
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: M book right now. Those books have the 7.5. It
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: is juiced at minus 120, but you get at least
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: under the hook there. That might be the better approach
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: in this game, although it looks like the money's coming
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: in on the over.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 5: I don't really get it.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: 56% of tickets, 88% of the cash on the over.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 5: Now, Minnesota does play more high-scoring games at home.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: I get that. I still think the under might be
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: the better way to play it. You do at least
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: get a rested Minnesota bullpen. But the problem is, I
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: think the under, excuse me, the under is the way
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: to play this game. But the problem is, these bullpens, man,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: I don't like either one of them still. So I
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: think you have to go first five under. And again,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: just like the other game I talked about with Cleveland
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: and Kansas City, you're going to be looking at a
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: three and a half. I don't really love it, but
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: you know, I think that is probably the right way
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: to play this game is to probably take the first
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: five under. I think that those are strong, some of
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: the stronger opinions for me today. So the stronger opinions
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: I've given out so far, first five under in Cleveland,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: Kansas city, first five under in Texas, Minnesota. I like
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: those two. And I like Detroit on the money line.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: Those are my three strongest liens that I have not, uh,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: put on my card. I only have one game on
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: my card. I'm being real, real selective today, man.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 5: It is what it is.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: But if the number was a little bit different, I'd
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: probably be on these two games or if the bullpen
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: situation was a little bit different.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 5: But also, DeGrom on the road does worry me, though.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: And Ryan, you know... May not totally be back in
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: form yet, so there are some concerns here. The money
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: back in the over is weird, too. The money is
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: back in Texas, and I probably do agree with that.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: 74% of tickets, 88% of the cash on Texas. It's
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: basically a pick and price. The problem is it almost
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: looks too easy, right? Because everybody knows Texas needs to
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: win to make the playoffs. But, you know, DeGrom appears
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: to be in the better form right now than Ryan,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: although it's just a matter of Is DeGrom going to,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of bounce back from that last, I
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: think his last outing I said was bad. Is he
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: going to bounce back from it? It looks like he will,
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: but it's not guaranteed. He's not that good on the road.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the problem you have with this.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: Although if you take Texas, you're fading Minnesota in a
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: return home spot, but Minnesota does have the rest edge.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: So that is kind of an issue there. And you're
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: taking the more motivated team with Texas at least. And
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: you're getting, I think probably still a bullpen edge if
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: you take Texas, but I don't want it. In fact,
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: the next game is the game that I really want.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: Let me see. My one play today is the Arizona
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: Diamondbacks' first five, Moneyline plus 106. I don't want to
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: deal with their bullpen against San Diego, although if you
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: wanted to do full game, You have some arguments for
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: it because San Diego has used all their better relievers
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: two days in a row. They used Matsui, Miller, and Morejon.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: They used all three of them two days in a row.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: So all three of them might be unavailable here. Although
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: Morejon might be able to pitch again because he didn't
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: throw that many pitches in those two games. But probably
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to see Miller or
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: Matsui here. So if you did want to go full game,
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: I guess you have an argument for it. San Diego...
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers yesterday, Arizona used three and they
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: didn't really use their better relievers. I don't think, but
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: I still don't want to do it. Arizona's bullpens rate fifth,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: but they're not really that good. San Diego's rate eighth,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: but we know they're the better bullpen. They're one of
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: the top five bullpens I would say. So I am
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: going to just focus on the starting pitching here. Um,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: Arizona's number 15, San Diego's number 18. Both teams have
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: been hitting better in the second half of the season.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: But what I'm looking at is the motivation here. Like,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: Arizona's gonna have more motivation here, okay? Arizona, they're hanging
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: on by a thread here. Like, San Diego's already clinched
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: a playoff spot, so I think San Diego does not
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: have as much motivation, and they're returning home from playing L.A.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 5: In L.A., even though that's a short trip still.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: It's not really much of a return home spot because
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: they only went on the road for one series, but
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: you've got to think they're going to be in letdown mode.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: After clinching a playoff spot and beating the Dodgers two
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: games in a row to end that series, it's got
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: to be letdown city for San Diego here, man. I
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: know they're at home, but they're going to start looking
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: forward to the playoffs They're four games ahead of Arizona now,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: so even if San Diego gets swept in the series,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: they're still going to make the playoffs. Ideally, they want
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: to get home field now because that's where they are
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: right now. They're the number one wild card right now,
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: but that's not more motivation than what Arizona has. Arizona
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: is fighting for their lives, and the only way that
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: Arizona is going to get in is if they somehow
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: make up a bunch of ground against the Phillies over
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: the weekend here.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 5: So Arizona's got more motivation.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: They're going to be more desperate, and they're an underdog
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: here So I think we have a motivational edge here.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: I think we have a situational edge here. So that's
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: kind of where I start with this handicap. I'm like, okay, yeah,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: this is looking pretty good. Arizona, by the way, is
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: above 500 on the road, at least, although I know
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: San Diego is a good home team.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to deny that. But Arizona is at
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 5: least not a terrible road team.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: Arizona's got some momentum, though. You know, they're already in
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: the middle of a road trip. Yeah, they're coming out
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: west from being in Colorado, but I don't consider that
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: to be that bad of a spot, having to go
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: one time zone over than where you already are.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 5: It's whatever.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: And you're going from a really hitter-friendly park to a
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: really pitcher-friendly park, which that'll probably help your pitching at
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: the very least. But Arizona's got momentum. They've won five
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: games in a row. They're trying to do it here, man.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: I understand San Diego is better than the Rockies, but
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: Arizona did beat the Yankees the first two of those games, too.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: They're playing with motivation right now. And the other thing
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: I like about this is I like the pitching matchup
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: as well. We're going to back Brandon Fott in this one.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: We're going to be farting all night here, man. 3.72 ERA, 1.17
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: whip from him. I don't know what they did when
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: they sent him down to the minors, but obviously they
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: completely changed the trajectory of his season. When he went
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: down to the minors a couple of months ago, he's
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: been way better since coming back from that. He's got
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: a 3.34 road era as well. So his era is
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: better on the road. Um, he's also way better at
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: night for whatever reason. So his splits are all positive here. However,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: his opponent batting average. Yeah, it is slightly worse on
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: the road, but whatever. Um, Hasn't been good in his
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: last two starts, I'll give you that. He wasn't good
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: at home against Texas. He was way too hittable in
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: that start. Against the Yankees, he didn't last five innings,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: although he did only give up one run, and I
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: don't really know why they took him out of that
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: game unless he was a relief pitcher in that game
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: or something because he was pitching well in that game.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 5: He didn't throw that many pitches against the Yankees, but whatever.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: What it does mean is that he's on schedule right now,
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: and he's not going to be overworked because he didn't
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: throw that many pitches there. So I don't mind any
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: of that. Um, his hit rate's been a little bit
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: too high this month, but he also hasn't been walking
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: many people.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rates have been better.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: Um, like I said, since coming back from, um, when
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: they sent him down to the minors, which was, when
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: was that?
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: Where the hell was that? I know that was somewhere.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: What am I? Is this like Mandela effect? Like when
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: the hell did that happen? I know what happened. Um, Oh,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: it was for the entire month of June. I'm an idiot.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 5: What am I looking at here?
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he was basically in the minors for the whole
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: month of June. And since coming back up since then,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: he's allowed more than three earned runs only twice.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 5: I don't know, three times, sorry.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: Although, yes, all three of those did happen more recently.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: But even so, I still think that he is definitely
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: pitching better recently, though. He does have a reasonable hit
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: rate on the season. He doesn't really walk many guys.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: Not a strikeout pitcher, though, although I think his strikeout
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: rate has improved recently, too. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio. It
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: is lower than what he's posted in the past, but
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: his numbers this year actually have wound up being better
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: than what they were in the past as far as
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: ZRA and WIP. So I think he's changed how he pitches,
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: and he's actually been more effective maybe like taking something
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: off of his fastball or whatever. 6.1 strikeout per nine,
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: though I know that doesn't look that good, but he
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: is pitching more effectively here. And what I like about
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: this is Not only is he a little bit better
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: on the road, but he's pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark here,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: and he's up against a San Diego team that he
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: does actually do well against. They have 155 at-bats against him,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: and they have a 36-8 strikeout walk ratio, so he
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: has a really good command ratio against them. 258 average
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: and 662 OPS. So Fott has had the upper hand
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: against these guys. Basically, only Machado and Cronenworth hit him well.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: Everybody else in this lineup kind of struggles against him.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: Camposano is all right against him, but small sample size
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: there for him.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: So I like Fott.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: I like him over Casey Mize, who's pitching for San
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: Diego here. Mize, he's had a good season, most of
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: it with Detroit, though. 3.96 ERA, 1.19 WIP. He's been
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: better at home for the most part, 3.71 home ERA.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: That should be the case with San Diego. However, it
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: looks like it might not be. Since he's been on
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: San Diego, he hasn't really been that good. He had
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: an 11-8 strikeout walk ratio in August. That's not good,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: and he gave up a lot of hits, so he
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: was not striking guys out. He had an ERA of
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: over 6 that month, and this month his ERA is
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: over 7. He's not pitching well. He has a 13-9
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio this month, and with San Diego, since
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: they acquired him, his strikeout walk ratio is 24-17. That's bad.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: That's really bad. So I don't know what we're doing here.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: He's allowed way more than one hit per inning. His
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: ERA has been basically around in the high sixes since
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: he's been on San Diego.
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not looking good.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: It's not. His last start was really bad at home
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: against Miami. He had five walks in that one. He's
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: not in good form here. Looking at his stats on
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: the season, yeah, I mean, these are all right. He's
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: got a three strikeout walk ratio, but look at the difference.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: It was four and a half with Detroit, and it's.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 5: 1.4 with San Diego.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, I don't know what's going on, but he's
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: been way worse with San Diego. It's not even close.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: And strikeout upper nine has also gone way down from 8.8
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: to 5.3 with San Diego for an overall 7.7. I
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: don't know what to tell you, but he's not in
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: good form here, man. I don't know what else to
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: say about it. You'd think he'd pitch better in the stadium.
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 5: Hasn't happened.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: And he's also not good against Arizona. So that's where
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: we have, you know, we complete the handicap here. 47
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: career at-bats, 11.7 strikeout walk ratio, not good. 298 average allowed,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: 878 OPS.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 5: None of that is good.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: So we're going to take the D-backs in the first
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: five here and avoid the bullpens just because I think
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: San Diego still does have the better bullpen here. So
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: we'll focus on motivation and starting pitching all combined here.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: And we'll take Arizona in the first five. The money
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: looks like it really agrees with me on this, at.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 5: Least in the full game.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: 74% of tickets on San Diego, 58% of the cash
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: on Arizona. You're getting them as an underdog. Although if
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: you play the full game, you'll probably get them at
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: a little higher of an underdog price because the odds
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: makers know Arizona's advantage in this game is more so
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: in the starting pitching than the bullpen. But if you
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: take the full game, you'll be looking at probably like
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: a plus 115% But I'm still okay with somewhere around
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: plus 106 in the first five. I think that's still good.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: Plus money in the first five. San Diego's around minus
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: 130 on the game. The money's also back in the
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: over seven and a half in this game. I probably agree,
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: to be honest. I think neither pitcher is really that excellent.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: So I think that makes more sense than an under.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: And San Diego used their better relievers yesterday. Arizona's bullpen down.
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: concerns me to some extent, so that makes sense to
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: me as well. Arizona's bullpen has been better recently, though,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: so that's what you got with that. Plus 110, all right,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I can find a better number
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: on that, but yes, yes, Diamondbacks' first five. That is
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: the only baseball play that I'm actually going to give
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: out here in this selective end-of-the-season weekend here.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 5: All right, this.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: The show is taking way too long. Houston and the A's.
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: We know Houston has all the motivation here. Houston was
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: able to get the win yesterday, 7-5, even though I
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: thought Houston might be in a little bit of a
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: bad spot after they had that huge game against Seattle
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: that went extras the day before that. But the A's suck,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: and Houston.
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 5: Still got the win yesterday.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: Houston has the tiebreaker, so they're looking fairly good right
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: now against Texas.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 5: They've got to keep winning.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: Houston has the easier series here because Texas is playing Minnesota.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 5: Houston is playing the A's.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: You got to think Houston's probably going to get the
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: job done here, man. Not guaranteed, but Houston looks like
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: they have the better pitcher in this matchup today as well.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: You know, the A's, they would like to play spoiler here,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: so I think they will still be motivated. They played
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: alright in that 7-5 loss last night, but I think
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: Houston's got numerous advantages in this game. Houston's got the
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. They used four guys yesterday. The A's are
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: an atrocious bullpen.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: They used three.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: Houston hasn't been that good out of the bullpen recently.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: They're number 14 right now, but the A's are 29th.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: It's still the worst ERA, so Houston's still got the
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. Houston's number seven offensively, and the A's
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: are number 11, so I think Houston probably has the
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: edge there too. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark. We have
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: a really low total in this one. Really interesting. A's Stadium,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: and it's 8.5 again. Could be because the cool weather's
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: coming in in Northern California here now, man. Maybe it
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: won't be as hitter-friendly here. Hunter Brown is also not
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: a very hitter-friendly guy. He's pitching for Houston. He's kind
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: of turned his season around. You know, he was trying
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: to come back from injury this year. He was good
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: the last two years, and it looks like he is
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: starting to kind of come into form again. Maybe just
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: in time for the playoffs. He's got a 3.26 ERA,
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: a 1.27 whip. He's been basically the same home and away.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: His splits are not significant. He's been really good in
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, except he threw too many pitches.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: He was inefficient, but he had 10 strikeouts in both
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: of them, and he gave up one run across 10
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: innings there. Both at home, though, against Kansas City and Atlanta,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: but he's really not much worse on the road. Although
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: he struggled a little bit against Philly. In his last
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: road start. But this month he's got a 3 ERA.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate. He's got a
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: ton of strikeouts. 34-7 strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 5: That's good.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: And it goes back into the previous month too. 10
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: strikeouts against the Mets in his last start in.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 3: August.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: And in fact over his last 7 starts. He's only
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: allowed more than 2 run runs once. So he's pitching well.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate here. His problem is
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: the walks. His walks have been more of an issue
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: this year than his last couple seasons, but I think
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: he's starting to get that under control a little bit
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: more recently, but he does have a high walk rate.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is also really high, and he does
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: get a lot of ground balls as well, so that's
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: good for pitching in the A's stadium. You want to
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: be a ground ball pitcher and not allow many fly balls.
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: That's what you get out of Brown, so that's good.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: Brown has a 2.4 strikeout walk ratio, which is not
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: as good as it was the last couple of years.
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: But to me, it seems like he is improving that
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: as the season progresses. 10.6 strikeout per nine is solid.
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: Against the A's, he's generally pretty good. An 82 at bats,
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: 26 strikeouts, five walks, 244 average, 653 OPS.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 5: Those numbers are all good.
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: Jacob Lopez is pitching for the A's. He's clearly the
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: worst pitcher here. 5.68 ERA, 1.53 whip. That's not good.
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: Somehow he's slightly better at home. 5.64 home ERA. I
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: don't understand, but he got obliterated in his last start
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland. On the road, that's not a good sign
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: at all. Not even in the A's stadium and against
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: a weak offense like that. They got 10 runs off
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: him in two and two-thirds innings. That's like a Tanner
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: Houck line. pitching line he might be coming back for
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox oh god Lopez was also really bad
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: in the previous start at home against Seattle as well
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: he wasn't even really that good against Toronto in the
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: start before that so he's not in good form here
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: he's a lot of ton of hits recently a lot
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: of home runs Low strikeout rate recently. Walk rate not
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: great either really recently. An ERA over 10 this month. Yeah,
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well. High hit rate allowed on the season.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: He's allowed a lot of home runs, so not good
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: for this stadium. He allows a lot of fly balls,
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: unlike Hunter Brown. Like Hunter Brown, he also walks a
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: lot of guys, so that's not good. And his strikeout
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: rate is low, so he's worse.
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 5: Than Hunter Brown there.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, 8.3 Ks per nine. The strikeout
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, but the walk ratio is really, walk
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: rate is really bad. However, Lopez somehow is really good
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: against Houston. I have no idea how. They have 54
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: at-bats against them, 18 strikeouts, 8 walks. That is too
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: many walks, but he's held them to a 148 average
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: of 480 OPS, and that is the only thing that's
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: kind of keeping me off of this game because I
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: like Houston here. Well, it's that and the price. Like,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: I like Houston, but obviously everybody knows Houston needs to
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: win this game. They got 88% of the tickets on them,
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: but 59% of the cash on the A's. Houston's around
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: minus 170 price now. in the minus 170s. I think
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: I would still lean Houston. I think I would probably
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: lay the minus one run line or something with Houston
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: if I was actually going to play this game. If
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: you're going to play the A's, I think you should
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: only do it in the first five because their bullpen
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: is terrible. The money's also coming in on the over.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: It's a high total still at nine or, well, it's
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: eight and a half or nine, basically, which is still
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: not really, it's not that high for an A's home
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: game total, you know? There might be an argument for
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: the first five under, though, because I think Brown is good,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: and then Lopez, for whatever reason, has good numbers against Houston.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: So the argument might be there for the first five
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: under here. I still think I prefer Houston. I think
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: Brown is just way better than Lopez, and he's in
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: way better current form. So, yeah, to me it looks
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: like it's a Houston game. But, all right, Anaheim and Seattle.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: I looked at this, and my first reaction to this
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: was this looks like an under to me with these
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: two starters here and with two really bad offenses. Seattle
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: lost the game yesterday. I told you, man, Seattle, coming
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: off that huge game against the Astros, I didn't like it.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: Seattle was going to have to win out, and now
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: that they lost yesterday, Seattle is eliminated from the playoffs.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: Maybe a bad spot for Seattle here. We talk about
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: the dream crusher in college sports. Well, this might be
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: the dream crusher for Seattle here. They were hanging on.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: They were still alive late into the season. They were
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: in the ALCS last year. They were expected to win
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: the AL West again this year. Now they're officially eliminated.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: Seattle might be in a bad mindset here. I would
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: not want to back Seattle on the side here. It
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: was a bad spot for them yesterday to have that
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: huge extra inning Astros win or win against the Astros,
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: I should say. But I don't like it here for Seattle.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: Seattle used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen hasn't been
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: that good this year.
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 5: Anaheim used two. Anaheim's bullpen's not good either.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: They're ranked 23, Seattle 21, although Seattle actually has the
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: worst ERA. Both offenses are really bad. Seattle 28, LA,
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: or Anaheim, excuse me, is 30. And both pitchers here
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: are generally pretty good. Reed Detmer's pitching for Anaheim. He
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: is good, 3.47 ERA, 1.05 whip. He has exactly the
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: same ERA home and away and almost the same opponent
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: batting average too.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 5: So he's really consistent. He's got a 30-2 strikeout walk
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 5: ratio this month. Is that good? I would say it is.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: He did face Seattle a couple starts ago at home,
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: and he was pretty good in that one. Went six innings,
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: allowed three runs on seven hits, eight strikeouts, one walk.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: Wasn't that good against Minnesota last time out, but I
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: think we probably lost the first five under on that one,
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: to be honest.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 5: It was probably him against Joe Ryan.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: Oh, God. Maybe I'm wrong about that, actually, because I
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: don't remember that happening that recently. But anyway, Detmers is really,
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: he is in good form right now. He has a
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: really good strikeout rate and low walk rate. Recently, really,
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: really crazy ratio there this month. He's got a low
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate's pretty low
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: as well. His strikeout rate is high. He's a good pitcher, man.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: A lot to like about Detmers, and people never really
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: seem to talk about him 4.4 strikeout walk ratio this
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: year is the best he's ever had.
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 5: Really, really good.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: 10.3 strikeout per nine is not his best, but it's
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: still really good. Against Seattle, he's not that good, though.
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: Not really what I expected. 104 at bats, 298 average,
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: allowed 800 OPS. 27-8 strikeout walk ratio is fine, but
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of surprised that he's not that good against Seattle.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: So that worries me a little bit, although I still
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: kind of think he's going to pitch well here. He's
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: in good form. He's in a pitcher-friendly park. The Seattle
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: offense has really been bad this year. Demers was pretty
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: good against them last time out, and Bryce Miller is
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: pitching for Seattle.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 6: 3.99 ERA, 1.15 whip.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: He is better at home. 3.66 home ERA with a
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: 169 opponent batting average at home. He's been good at home.
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 2: This month, he's had some walk issues. That's really kind
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: of the one issue with him recently is he's walked
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. Last month, he was actually legitimately bad, though.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: And Seattle's been losing all of his games. Seattle's lost
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: 11 of his last 12 starts. So that's not what
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: you want to see. That's not a good sign, even
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: though he's pitching a little bit better this month. And
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: he did just pitch in the A's stadium and in Colorado.
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 5: Interesting there.
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: He's coming back home after pitching in two really hitter-friendly parks.
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: He's back in a pitcher-friendly park. So you'd have to
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: think that would be to his advantage a little bit here.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: But again, a couple of his starts recently, he's still
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: walking too many guys. Looks like there's something a bit
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: off about him right now. He's got a low hit
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, low walk rate on the season,
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: still a pretty high strikeout rate on the season too. 3.1
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 8.9 Ks per nine.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: Those are pretty good numbers. Miller against Anaheim is just.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: Mediocre, though. In 63 at-bats, 21-3 strikeout walk ratio is good,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 2: but they have a. 270 average against them, 747 OPS,
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: the Boeing OPS. That's not really that good. So, I
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. I mean, this game still seems like
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: it should be an under. The total is six and
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: a half, and you know what I said already. It
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: opens seven very briefly, but you know what I say
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: when it's six and a half, going under that is
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: a long-term winner in Major League Baseball, slightly. We have
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: 81% of tickets on the over, 89% of the cash
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: on the over. The pitchers are both good here, but
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: I don't like their matchup numbers, man. And I don't
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: like the bullpens. So I think if you go under here,
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: you'd have to go under in the first five. You'll
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: be looking at a three, and the matchup numbers aren't
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: really that good. So I kind of don't like that.
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: And maybe if you go full game, you might actually
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: have an argument to play the over in the full
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: game because the bullpens might... might get you there with it,
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: although I think it will be kind of a cool
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: environment in Seattle, pitcher-friendly park. It is what it is,
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: and the money is coming in on Anaheim. I probably
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: agree with that. 80% of tickets on Seattle, 73% of
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: the cash on Anaheim. Dedmers is in the way better
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: current form. I think he's the better overall pitcher. His
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers are not better, so that would worry me
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but I think Anaheim first five is
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: worth consideration here with Seattle in kind of the dream
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: crusher scenario. Overall, I do think Detmers probably is better
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: than Miller. So that's what I'd be looking at there.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Maybe Anaheim first five. But not a game I want
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: to play. And then we have Dodgers at San Francisco
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: to close it. I think the Dodgers are pretty much
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: locked into the number two spot in the NL now.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is coming off getting swept by the Twins.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: They're staying at home, and I believe they're rested. I
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: believe San Francisco did not play yesterday. So the Dodgers
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: have a rest advantage here, and they're traveling from home.
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: Dodgers used three relief pitchers yesterday. I think there's still
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen over San Francisco, though. Dodgers are ranked
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: 10th out of the bullpen. San Francisco's 24th. So, yeah,
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are the better bullpen. They have a sub-4 ERA,
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: at least, and San Francisco's is above 4. Dodgers, we
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: obviously know they're the better offense. They're number 2.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 5: The Giants are... Where are they?
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 2: Number 21... So, yeah, we know the Dodgers are the
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: better offense here. Dodgers also have the better starter, you
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: would think, here with Tarek Skubal is pitching for them,
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: even though it's the last series of the season. He's
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: got a 2.85 ERA,. 99 whip.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 5: He's been really good on the road, 1.87 road ERA.
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: This is a pitcher-friendly environment here. He just faced San Francisco,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: and he actually wasn't that good in that outing. He
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: gave up four runs at home against San Francisco here.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: Last time out in five innings. It was his worst
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 2: start since joining the Dodgers. Hilariously, it was his start
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: where they won by the most runs. So it was
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: the only start with the Dodgers, since being on the Dodgers,
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: I mean. It was his only start with the Dodgers
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: where he actually got run support.
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 5: So it's hilarious. The worst start that he had, they
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 5: had to score runs for him. We know he's good.
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, really low walk rate,
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. His numbers have continued to be pretty
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 2: much the same with the Dodgers. He's got a 6.5
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, although that actually went way down since
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: joining the Dodgers, but the rest of his numbers really
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: haven't changed much.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 5: So whatever. That's still a really good number.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: 10.4 strikeout per nine is also good. Scooble against San Francisco, though,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not, he's not great against them. At
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: 23 at-bats, most of that was that last start he made.
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: 261 average, 798 OPS, 5-2 strikeout walk ratio. Now that
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: San Francisco has seen him once recently, and they did
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: pretty well against him that time, they might be able
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: to hit him well again here. Sounds crazy, but I
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: don't know if I really fully trust Scooble in this one.
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 5: Five strikeouts, two walks.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 2: And then on the other side, Junior Marte is pitching
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: for San Francisco. He's really young. He's definitely not a junior, though.
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: He is really big, 6'6, 236 pounds, right-handed pitcher. 4.66 ERA, 1.4 whip.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: He has not been that good so far. However,. 93
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: home ERA so far, so he's been good at home
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: so far. He's had two home starts where he's gone
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: four and two-thirds innings against the D-backs and five innings
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: against San Diego and only allowed one run over.
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 5: That entire span. So that was good. His worst starts
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 5: have come on the road.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: However, the most recent one was against the Dodgers, and
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers completely lit him up. So the Dodgers had
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 2: no problem figuring him out, and that might be bad
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: because he might not pitch well again here because the
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have now seen him. And they're familiar with what
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: he throws. However, I will say, though, that when a
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: pitcher doesn't do well against lineups, sometimes they do actually
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: fix some things and pitch better the next time out. And, like,
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: change some things and fix what went wrong, like a zigzag.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: So I'm not totally convinced he's going to be that
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: bad here. But his strikeout walk ratio is really concerning, though.
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: He's only got 11 strikeouts in 19 and third innings.
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Plus nine walks. So these numbers are
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: not actually good. 1.2 strikeout walk ratio, 5.1 case per nine.
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: None of that is good, and his numbers against the Dodgers,
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: like I said, it was that one start.
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 5: Things went really bad for.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: Him, though. 20 at-bats, 400 average, 1155 OPS, 1-2 strikeout
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. I'm leaning over in this game. I think
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: that might be the better way to look at this.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: I think both pitchers might not be as good as
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: maybe we think, and the money's coming in on the under.
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 2: The total's low at 7.5, but I think the over's
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: the better way to look here. 62% of tickets on
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: the over, 80% of the cash on the under. I
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: don't want to do it, but to me, the matchup
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: numbers don't look that great to me. So I think
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 2: the over makes the most sense. Minus 350 or so
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: is the price on the Dodgers. On the road, the
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are minus 350. So understandably, the professional money is
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: not playing them. 93% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: on the Dodgers. I don't think the Dodgers have that
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: much to play for. I think they're pretty much guaranteed
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: the number two spot seed in the nl at this
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 2: point and maybe that's not even bad for them if
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: they wind up having to face milwaukee in the nlcs
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: or something because milwaukee has actually been really good against
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: the dodgers on the road so maybe having the home
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: advantage there doesn't even matter that much uh for the
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: dodgers but yeah the money seems to be fading the
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 2: dodgers here i mean i wouldn't do that either like
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: dodgers team total over makes some sense to me in
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: this game too although you'll be looking at uh Probably
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 2: them needing to score five runs at least in this one.
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, those are my thoughts on that game. That'll
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: do it for baseball. All that for one baseball play.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: And then we have some football here. We have both
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: service academies that are in the American Conference playing tonight
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: with Army and Temple. And they're both in a similar
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 2: situation too. Army at Temple on ESPN, which is actually
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: at 4 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 5: So we have a late afternoon game here.
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: Temple is the more battle-tested team, I will tell you that,
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: because they play Penn State, and they actually were reasonably
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: decent in that game. It was a big game for Temple, though.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: You know, they always get up for Penn State. They
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 2: always get up for a big brother in the state
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: of Pennsylvania, but only losing that game 27-9, you know,
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: that's not a bad outcome for them.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 5: Their last game was really crazy, though.
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 2: They went to Toledo, and they were underdogs in that
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: game because Toledo is one of the best teams in
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: the MAAC, and this game went into overtime. Toledo was
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: the favorite in the game. And Temple almost won the game. Obviously,
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 2: it went into overtime. And in fact, Temple blew a
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: 14-point lead in the final minute of the game, basically.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: They were winning by 14 with a little bit over
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 2: a minute to go. And then they allowed two touchdowns
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: for the game to get tied. Although, you know, if
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 2: I was the coach, I would have gone for two
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 2: on the first one of those. So Toledo, their coach,
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: not analytically sound, man.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 5: I'm sorry, but.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: when you're down 14 like that, um, yeah, you go
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: for two. That's just the rule. Like analytically, it makes
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 2: more sense because you don't want to play to overtime.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: Although I will give them a little bit of a
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: break though, because if you're the home favorite, you're more
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 2: likely to win an overtime than, uh, than to lose
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: it at least. But it's still like, you're probably like
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: 52% to win once it gets to overtime.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 5: So whatever.
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: Um, And I think they had to recover an onside kick,
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: by the way, to even make that happen. So it's
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: even more crazy. So Temple might not be in the
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: best mindset after a game like that. Temple also got
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 2: outgained by over 100 yards in that game. So Toledo
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: did win the game statistically. So that is not great
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: for Temple. They're coming off kind of a barn burner there,
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: whereas Army is coming out of a bye. So I
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: think the spot sets up a lot better for Army here.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: They haven't played for two weeks. They lost their last game, too.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: You know what I always talk about with the bye?
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: I think the bye, like how good the bye is
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: depends on how you went into the bye. And I
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 2: think if you went into the bye on a bad note,
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: which Army did, they lost, I believe, as a favorite
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 2: to South Florida. They lost. I think that means when
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 2: you go into the bye, you're going to fix some
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 2: things rather than if you go into the bye on
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: a hot note, I think you don't have anything to
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: fix and the bye can hurt your momentum. But going
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 2: in on a bad note, I think is good because
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: you're going to fix some shit. Now, Temple, they're used
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 2: to facing the triple option. Army, obviously, they run the
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: triple option. I think Army might actually be the better
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: team over Navy this year too, maybe offensively at least.
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure, but I think that might be
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: the case this year. Army, I think, has a decent
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 2: shot to actually win their conference this year. This is
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 2: a conference matchup as well. This is American versus American,
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 2: so this is a conference opener. Now, I like the
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 2: setup for Army. I lean Army here. I like them
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: coming out of a bye here. even though Temple does
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: have to face the triple option every year, so they
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: are used to it. And like I said, these home
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: teams on these big ESPN isolated games, they do tend
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 2: to step up their game, so I don't necessarily want
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: to really do it, but I'm going to have to
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: lean Army here. I think the setup is a lot
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: better for them. Temple coming off an overtime game, extra
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 2: rest for Army coming off a bad performance against South Florida.
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 2: Army's not proven, though, so Temple is the more battle-tested team.
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: And they look pretty good against Toledo and Penn State,
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: whereas Army has done nothing yet. They crushed Bryant and
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: they lost to South Florida. so we still have no
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 2: idea who Army really is. But, yeah, I'm going to
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 2: lean Army here. The oddsmakers are telling you Army's the
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 2: better team. They're a three, three-and-a-half-point road favorite. Obviously, if
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: you want to play this game, you would prefer to
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 2: find a three somewhere. I don't know if you can
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 2: find it. Maybe you can find it with a little bit.
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 5: of juice on it.
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? It looks like most of
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: the books are at three and a half though, but
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: the money's actually fading army, uh, 62% of tickets, 60%
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: of the cash. So the money's actually coming in against
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 2: Army here, and it's coming in on the under big time,
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 2: as the total's already dropped three points to 47.5, so
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 2: it's expected to not be much of an offensive game.
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 5: I think Temple is kind.
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 2: Of correlated to the under, although Army, I mean, you know,
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 2: they run the ball. That's what they do. It's triple option,
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: so unders do somewhat make sense in their games, but Army,
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 2: as far as triple option offenses go, theirs is a
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 2: pretty good one, though. So... We will see.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 5: But I'm going to lean Army in that one.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 2: Navy and UAB, is that the next game up?
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 2: Also on ESPN. It's an ESPN triple header, by the way,
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 2: at 4, 7, and 1030 Eastern. Navy, very similar spot,
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: by the way, although UAB, I think, is a really
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 2: bad team, dude.
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 5: I really do.
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: They're the University of Alabama, Birmingham. More like the University
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: of Ass.
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 3: Of Ass.
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 2: Of Ass and Butt. How about that? They suck. The
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 2: University of Ass at Birmingham.
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 5: Sounds funnier, actually, though.
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 2: I overdid it. I went too far. I beat a
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: dead horse. UAB is not a good team, dude. I
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 2: know they looked okay against Illinois. I don't think Illinois is.
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 5: That good of a team.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 2: UAB actually out-caned Illinois in that game, by the way,
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: and lost the game anyway kind of badly. But I
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 2: don't think Illinois is a good team, man. And then
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 2: UAB barely beat UL Monroe, who suck. And then they
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: lost on the road at Louisiana. And by the way,
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: Louisiana was a seven-point favorite in that game. So... That
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 2: tells you what the oddsmakers think about UAB.
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 5: They're not good.
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: That's what they think. UAB did almost, well, they didn't
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: almost win, but they scored to cut the game to
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 2: a seven-point deficit with a lot of time left in
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. So UAB is coming off a game
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 2: where they played pretty well as an underdog, and they
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 2: had chances to maybe tie that game later in that game.
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 2: But it was misleading. They got outplayed in this game
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: by Louisiana. Louisiana had more than 100 yards more of
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 2: offense than they did. Louisiana dominated the time of possession,
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 2: had way more first downs. They did have an extra turnover.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 2: And in fact, it was a fumble six. UAB, their
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: only touchdown until they scored in the fourth quarter was
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 2: a fumble six. So yeah, UAB was not good in
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 2: that game. I don't think UAB is good at all.
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: Now for Navy, they're coming out of a bye. So
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: I do like teams coming out of a bye. And
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 2: they're coming out of a bye where they went in
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 2: on a bad note. They lost at Florida Atlantic. And
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 2: this game was insane for Navy. As if you look
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 2: at what happened in this game, Florida Atlantic was beating
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: them 38-7 close to the end of the third quarter.
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: And Navy cut the deficit to 38-30 there. with a
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: minute 40 to go here after they actually picked up
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 2: a safety, and then they got another touchdown here, and.
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 5: They got a two-point conversion. So they were down 16.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 2: They were going to have to get another touchdown and
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: two-point conversion. They must have onside kicked and missed it,
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: but that is a ridiculous comeback for Navy in that one.
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 2: But they did fall short, but they were the favorite.
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: Navy was the favorite in this game. So it was
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 2: not a good game for Navy. However, they actually outgained
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 2: Florida Atlantic in the game, although they got outpossessed. But
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: Navy wasn't as bad as what the game looked, really.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: And they had two turnovers that kind of hurt them
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: in this game, too. So it is interesting. And FAU,
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think they're that bad of a team.
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 2: They brought back a lot of guys from last year,
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 2: like Veltkamp and whatever. Now, there are other things going
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 2: on in this game, too. Now, Navy is coming off
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 2: a bye, so I like that. I think it's a
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 2: positive for Navy coming out of the bye because they
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: went in on a bad note, even though they tried
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: to come back in that game. It was a loss.
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 2: They got outgained in the game. Or, excuse me, they
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 2: did outgain FAU in the game, but they got... they
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: tried to come back in the game. I should say,
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: and they almost were able to do it. But I
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: think after a furious comeback like that, having a buy
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 2: is good. Like you, you know, you lost the game.
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: Wasn't a good game for you. You were supposed to
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 2: win that game. You were a favorite now coming out
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 2: of a buy. I think people are not going to
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 2: think that much about Navy here because their only win
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 2: is against Towson, which is not a good win. I mean,
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: it's against an FCS team, whatever. Um, Navy's better than
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: what you think they are right now. Even though you
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 2: could argue that final score was misleading because they were
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 2: getting crushed in that game. But statistically, I don't think
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: it's that misleading. But coming out of a bye, I
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 2: think this is a good thing for Navy. One question is,
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: are they going to overlook UAB? Because Navy has Air
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: Force next week. And that's one of their big games
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 2: of the season. The Service Academies, you know, it's like
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: a round robin thing for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy. So they
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 2: always get up for games against each other. So they
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: might have one eye looking ahead to that. However... Coming
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: out of the bye that they went into on a
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 2: bad note, I still think it's a positive for Navy. Now,
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 2: the other thing I like, which if you know me,
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 2: you're going to know why I'm saying this. Navy's quarterback
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: is hurt. And I actually like that coming into this
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 2: game for them because you know what that means. It
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: means that Navy, who opened, they were going to be
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 2: a nine and a half point favorite here. You're getting
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 2: them under a touchdown now. You're getting them six and
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 2: a half now because their quarterback is injured. Well, okay, but... Navy,
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 2: they're a disciplined team. They run the triple option. You know,
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 2: that kind of means their quarterbacks are plug and play. Although, yes,
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 2: their quarterback does throw the ball a decent amount. But
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 2: these quarterbacks, I mean, they know the triple option. You
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? They're in the system. The service academies,
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 2: they're not allowed to use the transfer portal and whatever. So, usually,
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: it's not that big of a downgrade when they go
• 2:04:14
  Speaker 2: from one quarterback to the next in these service academies here.
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 2: And you can tell that that's the case because... Their quarterback,
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 2: which was Braxton Woodson, he got hurt early in the
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: game last week, and then what happened after that? Oh, yeah,
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 2: their backup quarterback, Jackson Gutierrez, he was the one that
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 2: led that comeback last week. So are you really that
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: worried about Navy having Gutierrez starting this game when he
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: looked really good last week and led that massive comeback
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 2: for them last week? And now he's facing a UAB
• 2:04:44
  Speaker 2: team that's ass, and they're not as good as Florida
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 2: Atlantic is. Yeah, I don't have concerns, man. Gutierrez looked
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: good in that game. He threw two touchdown passes. He
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: had a run for a touchdown as well. Yeah, he
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 2: looks fine to me. So I like Navy in this game,
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: even though, again, I will say UAB probably will get
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 2: up for this game because it's a home game, primetime
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: on ESPN. It's one of your bigger games of the season.
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 2: You're going to get up for the TV game like that.
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 2: This is your conference opener as well. for both teams here.
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 2: So UAB being in this conference, yes, they're familiar with
• 2:05:19
  Speaker 2: defending against the triple option, but I like Navy.
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 5: They're in the injured player theory spot.
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 2: I say you always get more value because I think
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: the line overreacts to the quarterback being injured. Plus, the
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: team usually steps up their game knowing that.
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 5: They have to.
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 2: That first game that their quarterback is injured, I think
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 2: they're going to step up their game for it. They're
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 2: going to be undervalued. And Navy coming out of a
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 2: bye that they went into on a bad note. I
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 2: think that helps. I would play Navy if I was
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 2: going to play this. I consider putting it on my card, actually,
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 2: but the money doesn't seem to like it. 70% of tickets,
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 2: 59% of the cash on Navy. But yeah, I'm leaning
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 2: towards laying the points with both service academies here. I
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: like Navy. I think there are multiple situational angles that
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 2: favor Navy in this one. The total in this game
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 2: is a little bit higher at 51, but money seems
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 2: to be indicating towards the under here.
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe. It looks like Navy's offense is having
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 2: no real downgrade, though, with that quarterback situation there. So
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that. UAB is not a good team,
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 2: so maybe Navy will be able to score enough points here.
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 2: UAB offensively might not be that good, though, so I
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 2: don't know. We'll see. And, of course, like I said
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 2: with Army, though, when you're running a triple option, it
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 2: tends to slow the pace of the game down. However,
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: sometimes these teams are so good at the triple option,
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 2: they still score a shitload. And you saw that with Navy.
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 2: They had a bunch of quick scores last week. So
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: that's not out of the realm of possibility. But, yes,
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 2: I think aside from the game I'm going to give
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 2: you guys a play on, which you already know what
• 2:06:49
  Speaker 2: it's going to be. But I like Navy the second
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 2: best out of these games tonight. But, again, I worry
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: about fading these home teams in these situations here. Probably
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 2: the least interesting game is Northwestern in No. 5, Indiana. Uh, Indiana,
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: I actually think they're like a top three team though.
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 2: They've been good. Although Indiana has not covered a spread yet,
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 2: but we don't know who they are yet really this year.
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 5: They got Josh Hoover there now.
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 2: He's looked good so far, but what do you take
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: away from the fact that Indiana had three home games
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: against North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky, and they beat
• 2:07:24
  Speaker 2: them all and didn't cover the spread in any of them.
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 2: And yes, they did not cover the spread against Howard,
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 2: even though they beat them by 55 and We don't know.
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 2: We don't know yet, man. Indiana is not battle-tested at
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: all yet, and I don't think Hoover is as good
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 2: as Mendoza, so we will see. Indiana's still a very
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 2: strong team. There's no doubt about that. They're still way
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 2: better than Northwestern. Northwestern is more battle-tested, though. They had
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 2: a bye two weeks ago, but they're only battle-tested because
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: they played Colorado, but man, did they smash Colorado last week.
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 2: 41 to 7 big not a big win necessarily but
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 2: it was an impressive looking win and dude it was
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 2: because Colorado's players motivated Northwestern before that game Colorado's players
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 2: were talking a bunch of shit about how bad Northwestern
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 2: was that was a bad move Deion Sanders does not
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 2: have control of his team there that was bad for
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 2: Colorado We don't know who Northwestern is really yet, though.
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: This game is very, very difficult to predict, in my opinion. Now, Northwestern, again,
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: they've faced the most difficult opponent either team has faced
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 2: so far, but it was Colorado. They're still not very good.
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: Neither team is particularly battle-tested yet. Northwestern is a little
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 2: bit more rested, sort of, because they had a bye
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 2: in the mix there before the Colorado game. Not really
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 2: a bye that's going to help them much, though, even
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 2: though they won that game easily against Colorado. Indiana, I mean,
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 2: playing against Howard is effectively a bye anyway, though.
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 5: This game is on Fox, by the way. There is
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 5: also a TV game.
• 2:08:56
  Speaker 2: Between Howard and Rutgers on Big Ten Network, by the way.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: Rutgers is a massive favorite in that game. I got
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 2: no opinion on that game at all. Although Rutgers is
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 2: coming off covering, I'll just say briefly, Rutgers actually is
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 2: coming off a nice cover against USC, where Rutgers was
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 2: actually only down by seven. in the, in the fourth
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: quarter in that game, multiple times. So Rutgers may be
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 2: in a little bit of a hangover after a huge.
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 5: Game like that.
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 2: Um, against USC, so I would not lay the points
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 2: with Rutgers. Probably nobody's going to want to lay the
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 2: points with Rutgers, though, in that game, because everybody remembers
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 2: Rutgers losing to.
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 5: UMass, so nobody wants Rutgers.
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 2: But the money in that game is actually indicating on
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 2: laying the points with Rutgers.
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't do it.
• 2:09:41
  Speaker 2: The total's not even that high. Basically, the oddsmakers are
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 2: telling you Howard's going to score pretty much zero in
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 2: the game, or very little, at least, in that game. Anyway, Northwestern-Indiana,
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: the game that I'm really talking about here, I don't
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 2: have a good opinion on this, man.
• 2:09:56
  Speaker 5: I really don't.
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, it is a low total. So the total
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 2: is 49 and a half. The money seems to be
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 2: indicating a little bit towards the under here. Indiana's looked
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 2: really good offensively so far, but Northwestern will be the
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 2: best defensive face so far easily.
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 5: Indiana's laying 20 and a half.
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 2: If you like Northwestern, I think you should wait because
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: the public's going to come in on Indiana. You should
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 2: wait until you can get the 21 again, which you
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 2: could have gotten earlier if in the week it was
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: 22 and a half and it's dropped to 20 and
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 2: a half so some money has come in or 20
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 2: even uh some money has come in towards northwestern here
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 2: i don't know if you're gonna get the 21 on
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 2: this or not obviously that is the key number the
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 2: three touchdowns 82 of tickets 86 of the cash in
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 2: indiana but you know indiana is going to be public
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 2: yeah they're at home but you know with a low
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: total like this i'm pretty much always leaning towards the
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 2: underdog here because the points are worth more when you're
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: expected to have a low total like this. Northwestern might
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 2: be able to hang within that number in this game.
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to win. And I could
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 2: be wrong, but I think I'm going to lean slightly
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 2: towards Northwestern getting the points in that one.
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 5: Even though, yes, I know it is a TV.
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 2: game for Indiana, but Indiana's got bigger games this season
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 2: than this, so you know what I mean? For these
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 2: lower conference teams, these ESPN games, these national TV games
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 2: are bigger for the small conference teams. You know what
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 2: I mean?
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 5: The big conference teams, it's like, whatever.
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 2: Although that does lead me to my play in this
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 2: ESPN game, which I am playing on a big conference
• 2:11:21
  Speaker 2: team at home here. We're going to take.
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 5: Cal, plus one and a half here in this one.
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 2: Clemson, I mean.
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 5: They're not good, man. I mean, come on.
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the odds are telling you Clemson's the
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 2: better team. They're favored on the road here against Cal. Sure,
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 2: power rating-wise, they're probably the better team, but Dabo Sweeney,
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, this guy's just an idiot, dude. I get
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 2: why he doesn't like the transfers, but If you don't
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 2: do it, you're just going to fall behind.
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 2: Every other team is hitting the transfer portal while you're
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 2: just sitting there stagnating, and that's what Clemson is doing. Now,
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 2: I know people are saying Clemson shouldn't have won this
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 2: game last week or it was a bullshit cover for
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 2: them at least or whatever, but they beat Bill Belichick,
• 2:12:06
  Speaker 2: and they beat him legitimately. I mean, they had the
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 2: yardage edge in the game, so Clemson had a legitimate
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 2: win as the favorite against UNC. Clemson, I thought they
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 2: were a little bit undervalued in that game as a
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 2: three-point favorite, but some of that has to do with
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 2: the fact that I don't think North Carolina's good. Dude, Belichick, whatever.
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's a good coach. I don't think
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 2: he was ever good, to be honest, but I don't
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 2: think he's a good coach now, for sure. That's not
• 2:12:31
  Speaker 2: an impressive win for Clemson. I think it's a big win, though,
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 2: because it was their conference opener. You know what I mean?
• 2:12:38
  Speaker 2: Clemson is battle-tested, at least because they did play LSU,
• 2:12:40
  Speaker 2: but they were crushed by LSU in a game where
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 2: they should have been. The line in that game was
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 2: only like a 10. The spread was 10 on LSU,
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 2: and Clemson massively underperformed. They didn't look good against Georgia
• 2:12:53
  Speaker 2: Southern either. I'm not sure this Clemson team is that good, man.
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 2: And now they have to go all the way to
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 2: the Pacific Coast. And by the way, even though the
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 2: ACC has had Pacific Coast teams in it for a
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 2: few years now, Clemson has never played one on the road.
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 5: This is the first time Clemson.
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 2: Is having to go out to the Pacific coast since
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 2: the conference realignments. You know what I think already about
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 2: an East coast team going out West to play a
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 2: 10 30 PM game, their biological clock time. And it's
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 2: going to end past midnight their time.
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 5: You know what I think about that? I think it's bad.
• 2:13:25
  Speaker 2: I think it's a real negative for your bio clock,
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 2: but the fact that Clemson hasn't even done it in
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 2: the dabble Sweeney era, even, um, I think that's really bad,
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: and in fact, shout out to Steve Merrill again for
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 2: this info on WagerTalk.
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 5: He's got some good videos that he posts up there
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 5: for free.
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 2: He mentioned that Clemson has not played in a time
• 2:13:46
  Speaker 2: zone this many time zones different from the Eastern time zone,
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: which is only three in this case. They've not done
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 2: that since 1982 when they, for some reason, had a
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 2: bowl game that was in Japan. Since then, they have
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 2: not played a game on the West Coast. That's ridiculous.
• 2:14:05
  Speaker 2: You'd think that in some bowl game, some point Clemson
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 2: would wind up having to go out West for some
• 2:14:11
  Speaker 2: bowl game. Nope, that's never happened. Clemson makes a bunch
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 2: of bowls. They're always on the East Coast for whatever reason.
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 2: So this is a bad spot, dude. They're coming off
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 2: their conference home opener. I think the North Carolina win,
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 2: because it's Belichick and all the hype there, that at
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 2: least matters more than a game against Cal does.
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 5: Cal, you know, they're sort.
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 2: Of in a reset, rebuild mode here, but they haven't
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 2: looked that bad so far. And Clemson has a huge
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 2: look ahead here, too, by the way, because look who
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 2: they're playing next. Oh, yeah. They have their biggest game
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 2: of the season. They're hosting Miami next. That's a monster game.
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 2: Playing the team that's the best team in your conference
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 2: and hosting them at home. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's
• 2:14:54
  Speaker 2: a major look-ahead spot. You could kind of make the
• 2:14:56
  Speaker 2: argument it's a sandwich, but for me, it's a look-ahead
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 2: plus the travel spot out to the West Coast. It's ridiculous.
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 2: Absolutely ridiculous. I don't know if this game would make
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 2: the cut for me if it was on a Saturday.
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but maybe... I feel like when I
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 2: isolate games that are on these shorter boards, though, I'm
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 2: able to get a better feel for it. You know
• 2:15:15
  Speaker 2: what I mean? So I like this. And as far
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 2: as the Cal side is concerned... They lost to UCLA
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 2: in their opener. They were not that big of an
• 2:15:23
  Speaker 2: underdog in that game. They didn't play that well. That
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 2: was their biggest game so far. But UCLA looks decent, man.
• 2:15:29
  Speaker 2: They brought in James Madison's coach, Chesney. He looks like
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 2: he's quickly turning that program around. UCLA has not looked
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 2: bad at all so far. So that's not that bad
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 2: of a loss for Cal. They went on the road
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 2: and they beat Syracuse, which is pretty impressive that they
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 2: went cross country and they were able to beat Syracuse.
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 2: Then they came back home, and they were able to
• 2:15:48
  Speaker 2: reacclimate to the Pacific time zone last week and crush
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 2: Wagner at the same time. So Cal got a nice
• 2:15:54
  Speaker 2: scheduling set up there coming back home, and they basically
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 2: got a bye against Wagner. I like Cal in this one, though, man.
• 2:16:01
  Speaker 2: It's an ESPN game at home. Cal only gets a
• 2:16:04
  Speaker 2: couple of those a week, and this is going to
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 2: be not their conference opener, but it is their conference
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 2: home opener. Both teams have already played one conference game.
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 2: And Cal does not have a big game on deck.
• 2:16:15
  Speaker 2: They're playing UNLV next, a Mountain West team, before they
• 2:16:18
  Speaker 2: resume ACC play. So I think Cal's going to have
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 2: more focus on this game. I think the travel spot
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 2: is really disadvantageous to Clemson. Clemson, I think, is still
• 2:16:27
  Speaker 2: carrying some weight behind the name and the fact that
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 2: they're Clemson. I think that's pretty much it, even though
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 2: Cal does have a new coach this year, I believe,
• 2:16:34
  Speaker 2: and whatever. I like it.
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 5: I like Cal.
• 2:16:37
  Speaker 2: 56% of tickets, 76% of the cash on Cal. I
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 2: think you'd still get a plus one and a half
• 2:16:44
  Speaker 2: or plus one out there at a bunch of these shops.
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 2: It looks like it might be headed towards Cal though,
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 2: so you might want to get it now. But if
• 2:16:51
  Speaker 2: you have to play the money line on it or
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 2: something like that, that is certainly also an option. If
• 2:16:55
  Speaker 2: you want to play the Cal money line, you might
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 2: be able to find them around even money or some
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 2: number like that. If you play the one and a half,
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 2: I would actually say maybe you just put 10% of
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 2: it on the money line anyway, just because that's what
• 2:17:06
  Speaker 2: I always do with the underdog. Even though an even
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 2: money money line is not going to get you that
• 2:17:11
  Speaker 2: much more money for it, but whatever. um yeah that's
• 2:17:14
  Speaker 2: how i would look at this game so and then
• 2:17:17
  Speaker 2: that's that's a play for me we're taking cal plus
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 2: one and a half and that's it man too long
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 2: of a show but we got two plays i think
• 2:17:23
  Speaker 2: i've isolated some strong plays here with the d backs
• 2:17:26
  Speaker 2: in the first five in uh baseball and then cal
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 2: in college football tonight i guess i'll have to throw
• 2:17:33
  Speaker 2: that in my pick seven entry uh and then tonight
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 2: i'll be back i gotta figure out what i'm gonna
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 2: do with the uh Saturday card. I have two games
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 2: that I think are definitely making my card. We'll see
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 2: from there. I have a few games that I like,
• 2:17:46
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if I like them enough. So
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 2: we'll see, man. I hope my card isn't too big tomorrow,
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 2: but you never know. Once we get into the middle
• 2:17:54
  Speaker 2: of college football, you get more spots that you wind
• 2:17:57
  Speaker 2: up liking. You know what I mean?
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 5: That's going to do it. Learn to tell on Twitter.
• 2:18:00
  Speaker 5: Learn to tell on Instagram.
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 2: Like, subscribe to this channel here, and you'll get notified
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 2: when I go live with these late-night degenerate shows that
• 2:18:06
  Speaker 2: take way too much out of me, especially the college
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 2: football one. I'll be back, and I'm going to fill
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 2: out a WNBA playoff bracket soon because the regular season ended.
• 2:18:15
  Speaker 2: The playoffs start on Sunday for WNBA. Still probably I'm
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 2: going to do a hockey preview at some point before
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 2: Tuesday when the season starts. I've got to talk to
• 2:18:26
  Speaker 2: Clint and see if I'm going to have him on
• 2:18:28
  Speaker 2: to do baseball before that. Baseball... I believe the baseball
• 2:18:35
  Speaker 2: playoffs actually start on Tuesday too. So not much of
• 2:18:38
  Speaker 2: a turnaround time for baseball playoffs after the season ends
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 2: on Sunday, but I think it's something like that.
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 5: So we got to do that too.
• 2:18:45
  Speaker 2: I probably am going to have to do college basketball
• 2:18:47
  Speaker 2: and NBA previews coming up at some point too, but
• 2:18:49
  Speaker 2: those will be a little bit later. Cause I think
• 2:18:51
  Speaker 2: we're looking at late October and November for those more. So,
• 2:18:54
  Speaker 2: so we will see, um, Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 2: The numbers have been going up over there, so I
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 2: like that. Thank you to everybody who's listening over there.
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 2: We want way bigger numbers, though, man. Covered in Uke
• 2:19:09
  Speaker 2: is my Uke channel on YouTube. You can check that out.
• 2:19:11
  Speaker 2: I updated that the other day. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if
• 2:19:15
  Speaker 2: you want a Spotify ukulele feed or to just throw
• 2:19:19
  Speaker 2: me some support over there and to do requests that
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 2: I will take forever to actually do. I'm sorry about that. Yeah,
• 2:19:27
  Speaker 2: what else do I have to say? The Spotify feed,
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 2: I still have to update, though, on the Patreon there
• 2:19:33
  Speaker 2: with those new few that I did.
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 5: What else?
• 2:19:36
  Speaker 2: Loser cast every Tuesday night, and I don't know if
• 2:19:39
  Speaker 2: I'm going to mention the G-Spot podcast anymore. I don't
• 2:19:41
  Speaker 2: know if we're feeling it at this point with our
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 2: boy Dart out for the season. Things are not looking good,
• 2:19:46
  Speaker 2: although I think the Giants have a decent chance to
• 2:19:48
  Speaker 2: win their upcoming game, though, at home against Tennessee. Maybe
• 2:19:54
  Speaker 2: they're not dead yet. Maybe they'll be 2-1.
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 5: That's just great.
• 2:19:58
  Speaker 2: Anyway, that's going to do it I appreciate it, everybody. Peace.
• 2:20:05
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 6: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 2:20:15
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 2:20:28
  Speaker 6: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull you.
• 2:20:38
  Speaker 6: Out That bad luck bites hard But it don't get
• 2:20:46
  Speaker 6: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 2:20:56
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo