Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/22/26: Iran Talks Nearly Collapse, Neocons Try To Tank Deal, Americans Want War To End

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6/22/26: Iran Talks Nearly Collapse, Neocons Try To Tank Deal, Americans Want War To End · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Indeed, we do so rocky start to the negotiations yesterday,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: but Jadie Mann's this Morning is claiming that progress was made.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Jeremy Scahill is going to join us to break down
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: what we know. Hawks, of course, still out there doing
• 0:50
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• 0:52
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• 0:55
  Speaker 2: people correctly believe that the Iran war was a completely disaster,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: which we've lost, so they are in touch with reality.
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  Speaker 2: So here we are, and then there are big primary
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  Speaker 1: It really helps other people find the show. But let's
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: go ahead and kick it off with this morning. Literally
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: just minutes ago, the Vice President giving a press conference
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: updates from these high level negotiations between who is it Pakistan, Qatar,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the Iranians, and the United States.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: So it was a little bit touch and go yesterday.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a moment, but the Vice
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: President this morning is claiming some significant progress.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and play a one.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: Yesterday was a very very good day. We made a
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: to do, which is accomplish four things for the American people. First,
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: we wanted to build a mechanism for keeping the straight
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: of Horror moves open, it is open. We've seen, of course,
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: gas prices and oil prices come down, millions and millions
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: of barrels of crude and natural gas flowing through the
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: straight of horror mooves that weren't flowing before. But we
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: also wanted to make sure that we actually set up
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: the coordination mechanism so that we could demine the straits
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: of horror moves, so that when there are the conflicts
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: that inevitably come up, we can make sure we work
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: through them rather than that leading to escalation. And that
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: is exactly what we did yesterday.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: Number two.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: We also wanted to build a mechanism, a similar mechanism
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: for deconfliction for the regional ceasefire. As the President of
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: the United States has himself said, sometimes these ceasefires just
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: mean you're shooting a little bit less. But we wanted
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: to make sure that we had the proper coordination set
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: up so that if there is shooting, if Hesbeala fires
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: at Israel, or if Israel responds, if there are other
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: conflicts that arise in the region, we're actually talking to
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: each other and figuring out how to stop the shooting,
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: how to make the region safer.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Our allies and everybody else.
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: We set that up as well.
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: Number three, we and this is probably what we're most
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: excited about as Americans. The Iranians have agreed to invite
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: IAEA inspectors back into their country as a major milestone
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: for the American people and the first step in permanently
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: So the Vice President, they're selling the Iranians willingness to
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: allow IAEA inspectors in as a big win for the US.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: Of course, this was the sort of thing that was
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: on the table before all the bombs fell. But nevertheless,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: let's put that aside. The other piece that he really
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: elaborates there is this deconfliction process in what he describes
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: as a regional ceas fire course that centers on Israel
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: and Lebanon and their continued bombing of Hesbala and of
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Bayrout and the southern Lebanon area. He was asked to
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: elaborate further on that, obviously that being a very key
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: piece of whether or not this deal will go forward.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Would you describe the progress on Lebanon?
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: I know, Mistarah, she said it was very good progress.
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: But what's your characterization of it. Yeah, I would describe
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: it as very good progress too.
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, we want a regional ceasefire, right, We
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: want Hesbela to stop firing at our friends in Israel.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: We want Israelis to be able to live in peace.
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: We also want to make sure that, you know, when
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: things happen, they don't spiral into a broader escalation. And
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: so we've been I think, very good at setting up
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: what we're calling a deconfliction mechanism. But what it really
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: is is to say that when things happen, the sides
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: are actually talking to one another. Sometimes you know, you've
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: got a bit of a chicken an egg problem that
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: you've got a junior guy who fires a drone that
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: didn't have approval from the high command.
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: Okay, of course Israel has to.
• 5:32
  Speaker 6: Respond to that, But then sometimes that response we could
• 5:36
  Speaker 6: actually have a better and more peaceful situation if Israel
• 5:40
  Speaker 6: responds in the context of a conversation that's ongoing between Hesbela, Lebanon,
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: Israel and other partners in the region. There really hasn't
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: been a mechanism to have those discussions until basically around
• 5:53
  Speaker 6: four PM yesterday Bergenstock time.
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: When we set that up.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: So that is the US side.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: The joint mediator's Kata and Pakistan also put out a statement,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: we can put a zero up on the screen. A
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: lot of this is I'll read a little bit of those.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: The first session of high level talks under the framework
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: have concluded with the participation of representatives of the Islamic
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: Republic of Iran, United States of America and the two
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: mediating parties. Was conducted in a positive and constructive atmosphere.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: mechanism for further technical talks.
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: A lot of this is sort of like the first
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: day of.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Class when you like get the syllabus to establish the
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: rules of the road. That's sort of what we're talking
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: about here. Let's put the next element up on the screen.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: This is the reaction from the Iranian side. They are
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: also This is a Rachi foreign minister also touting progress here.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: He says a tireless Pakistani and Katari mediation is delivered.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Major progress to end the Lebanon war, oil and PETROCM
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: major reconstruction and development plan launched for Iran first real
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: test Lebanon deconfliction cell, which I think is probably spot on.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: So you can see Sager both sides sort of touting
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: the things that they see that they're getting out of
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: these negotiations after the first day.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, my immediate reaction actually, first of all, obviously the
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Vice president of the American side really needs positivity for
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the oil market, especially considering all the chaos that we're
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: about to go through. But from the Iranian side, you know,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: setting things up for a deconfliction cell the way that
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: the Vice President I'm reading some more of his comments
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: by text this morning, sold it is basically like that
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: hotline that the US and the Kremlin have to avoid
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: nuclear conflict. It allows a formal mechanism through which if
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: something kicks off in Lebanon, the United States, Qatar, Pakistan, Israel,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: and Hezbol or presumably Iran as well, are all in
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: some sort of you know, mechanism, things to be like, Okay,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: here's how we're going to work out now. This requires
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: an immense amount of trust to say that the Israelis
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: will be doing that properly, and we'll show you all
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: here in a little bit, the way that they're sounding,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the way that they will approach this in their own country,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: So don't trust them for a single second. But it
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: does show a couple of immediate real at least in
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: the interim, a actual dedication to wanting to rein in
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the Lebanon conflict. But that remains the single biggest problem.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: I will say. On the technical side, one detail that's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: very important from what you read there about the actual
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: way that this is going to be worked out, And
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: actually this should give you more of confidence in this.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Is it effectively right now? The United States is delegating
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the technical responsibility of the details to katar and to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Pakistan who actually have worked genuinely, tirelessly over the laste
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: hundred days or so to get us to this moment.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: If it was just up to Jared and Wikoff, we're
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: screwed in terms of the seriousness of whether that's going
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: to happen. However, when you have the Pakistanis and the Kataris,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: who over the next sixty days will be actually be
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: negotiating a lot of this stuff, and you get the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: IAEA back involved, then it is very possible that we
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: actually could end up with some sort of technical deal.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So that's actually a very positive in my opinion from
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the US. But overall, I mean, this is the vice president,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: he's not the president. And as we're all about to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: show you, you know, I have no doubt in my
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: mind if JD. Vance was the president of the United States,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: we wouldn't have much. First of all, I don't think
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: we'd be in this damn war. But second, I don't
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: think that we'd be having all this like will they
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: won't they? Or any of this. He has made repeated
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: statements about Israel's just like any of the country. They
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: have a right to self defense, so does everybody in
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the region. You're like, oh, what was that, you know,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: in terms of sometense. But Trump can change his mind
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: at any moment. The same guy who got us into
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: this mess in the first place. And as we're all
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: about to show you, nearly destroyed the talks. I mean,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: do you think that JD in the middle of the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: talks would lean across the table and threaten to kill
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the negotiators. Probably not, But that's what Trump did literally
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: while the negotiations were in route, which kicked off this
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: whole will they won't they? Mess as it starts. So
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: that's the problem is Trump is the wildcard on top
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: of all of this, and ultimately he can very easily
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: kill this entire thing. He's the leader, he's the president.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We're looking and trying to analyze the words of the
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Vice president. I have no doubt that he actually wants
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: the deal. Where's the Secretary of State, national Security advisor,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: the most powerful national security officials in.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: Fifty years, taking a backseat with you and I.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Are too, But he's still there. Yeah, you know, right
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: now he was on the phone to Columbia, you know, like,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: but maybe he'll turn around and he'll take a look
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: over there. You know. We're going to do an entire
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: segment soon about all the Hawks and their plans. So
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I like, do not count these people out? Yeah, not
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: just the Israel lobby, but a lot of the elements
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: in the Trump administration too.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: The absolutely the two big confounding factors here are Trump's
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: ego and Israel. And Trump's ego really reared its ugly
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: head yesterday and threatened to blow up the talks before
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: they even began. He did an interview with Fox News
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: is Terrey kingst and threatened the Iranians. That understandably caused
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of upset from them. It actually is in
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: violation of the terms of the fourteen point deal, the
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: first element I believe of which is, hey, we're not
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: going to threaten each other us anymore. Trump violates that immediately.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to a two.
• 11:02
  Speaker 7: President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials
• 11:05
  Speaker 7: overnight and said, you close it, and you won't have
• 11:09
  Speaker 7: a country. He went on to tell these officials, you
• 11:12
  Speaker 7: won't even make it back to your effing country now.
• 11:15
  Speaker 7: Earlier today, Iran's president Masoud Pazeskian said this about Iranian
• 11:19
  Speaker 7: enrichment of uranium. The President also reacting to that, take
• 11:23
  Speaker 7: a listen.
• 11:24
  Speaker 8: We will not give up our right to enrichment, and
• 11:27
  Speaker 8: they two will be forced to accept it. You all
• 11:31
  Speaker 8: know what the so called president of the United States
• 11:34
  Speaker 8: was saying. He had made a complete one hundred degree turn.
• 11:38
  Speaker 8: He was saying that Iran must surrender unconditionally. Iran has
• 11:42
  Speaker 8: no right to do this. It has no right to
• 11:45
  Speaker 8: do that.
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: President Trump, during our call responded directly to those comments
• 11:49
  Speaker 7: by Iranian President Masud Pozeshkian. President Trump told Fox News,
• 11:53
  Speaker 7: he'd better watch his mouth. He'd better shape up or
• 11:56
  Speaker 7: will take over the rest of the country.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Better shape bub to literally murder them before they leave
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the negotiation, so obviously not helpful. He also posted this
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: true social look put us up on the screen and
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: I Ran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Iron very hard again, just like we did last week,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: only harder so threatening them also over Lebanon. Iran appeared
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: early on to walk out, and actually there were multiple
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: news reports in Wall Street Journal and other you know,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: mainstream outlets and in Iranian media claiming that they had
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: walked out of the negotiations all together before they even commenced.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: We can put a four up on the screen. You
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: can see the moment when that's a Rachi on the screen.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: There he's meeting, you know, he's speaking with a Pakistani
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: official and then he exits the room. There was also
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: a whole thing about, you know, they didn't do the
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: photo op gollyboff didn't do the photo op that they
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: were supposed to do in Possessikin as well. But it
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: appears that after this initial situation t J. Evans getting
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: the word, They're like, uh, what is this happening? What's
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: going on? And he comes over and speaks with one
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: of the officials to figure out what is happening. But
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: apparently after this initial walkout, they did come back to
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: the table and continue the discussions. We can also put
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: a five up on the screen here. This is over
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: the Lebanon issue, which continues to be a major problem
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: because Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon, which also appears
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: to be in violation of the terms of the memorandum
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: of Understanding that was signed that says that Lebanese national
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: sovereignty will be respected. I would think that would require
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: an invading army to withdraw from the territory. In any case,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Aron said that it was closing the Straight of Hormuz
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Let's put a six up
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: on the screen here, just to take a look at
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the tanker traffic. American officials are really trying to tell
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: it tho the straights back open and vessels are transiting through.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: You can see that we are nowhere near back to
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: the levels that things were at, or to the closure
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: of the Strait of Horbooz, so we're in a bit
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: of a Schirdinger's Straight of Hornebos. The situation right now,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: is it open as it cloths? Hard to say, but
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: perhaps Jeremy ska Hill can can illuminate the situation for
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: us as he always does.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: It's open ish, you know, kind of open depending on
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: how you look at it. But as you said, we
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: got Jeremy here. I'm sure he's been on the phone overnight.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: He's going to update us on the Iranian side, their understandings.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Joining us now is co founder of drop site News
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: and great friend of the show, Jeremy ska Hill.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Great to see Jeremy.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Good to see you man.
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: Thanks for having me back.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: So what do you make of the on again, off
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: again nature of the talks yesterday Jade Vance's positive comments
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: this morning? What do you think came out of the
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: first day of negotiations.
• 14:47
  Speaker 9: I think it's important to remember there's a really ferocious
• 14:50
  Speaker 9: debate happening right now in Iran among the kind of
• 14:54
  Speaker 9: most important political echelons in the country, and there's a
• 14:57
  Speaker 9: very vibrant debate among the broader public in ire about
• 15:00
  Speaker 9: whether or not the Iranians should even be meeting with JD.
• 15:04
  Speaker 9: Vans or certainly with Donald Trump, given that they assassinated
• 15:08
  Speaker 9: the Supreme Leader of Iran and were responsible for more
• 15:11
  Speaker 9: than three three thousand deaths of Iranians during the course
• 15:14
  Speaker 9: of this war that began on February twenty eighth. So
• 15:16
  Speaker 9: even before their plane landed, there was a lot of
• 15:19
  Speaker 9: pushback on the idea that they would have any sort
• 15:21
  Speaker 9: of a photo op with Jdvans or potentially Donald Trump
• 15:24
  Speaker 9: if he had decided to attend. At the same time,
• 15:28
  Speaker 9: you had Netanyahu and the Israelis doing their best to
• 15:30
  Speaker 9: try to preemptively sabotage this by expanding their massive bombing
• 15:35
  Speaker 9: of Lebanon, their ground operations in Lebanon. And so even
• 15:39
  Speaker 9: before the Iranian plane landed in Switzerland, the Iranian military
• 15:43
  Speaker 9: had announced that it had closed again the Strait of Hormuz,
• 15:47
  Speaker 9: and so you had that as the kind of backdrop
• 15:49
  Speaker 9: to all of this. And so when Arachi and Galibaf,
• 15:53
  Speaker 9: the two lead Iranian negotiators, walked out of that photo
• 15:56
  Speaker 9: op and then marched down the hallway, it was multifaceted
• 16:01
  Speaker 9: rationale as to why exactly they did that, And you know,
• 16:04
  Speaker 9: I was told when there were reports emerging that the
• 16:08
  Speaker 9: Iranians had canceled the talk, a senior Iranian official told
• 16:11
  Speaker 9: me right away that's that's just simply not true, that
• 16:15
  Speaker 9: this was a an action that our delegation needed to take.
• 16:18
  Speaker 9: The Iranians still very much view themselves as having having leverage.
• 16:22
  Speaker 9: You know, you mentioned also Donald Trump's almost like sociopathic
• 16:27
  Speaker 9: threats to assassinate the Iranian negotiators if they didn't sort
• 16:32
  Speaker 9: of capitulate to his demands. This has been Trump's behavior
• 16:35
  Speaker 9: for a very long time, and you can contrast that
• 16:37
  Speaker 9: with the kind of level nature of JD.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: Vance's talking.
• 16:41
  Speaker 9: And part of the reason why they have Vance there
• 16:43
  Speaker 9: is probably because Vance is able to kind to keep
• 16:46
  Speaker 9: a cool here.
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: And I think there are real questions.
• 16:48
  Speaker 9: You know, we talked about on this show before the
• 16:50
  Speaker 9: Iranians brought in senior psychologists to assess tunnel Trump, and
• 16:54
  Speaker 9: they felt that when the psychologists got involved that the
• 16:57
  Speaker 9: messaging started being received in a much better way. With
• 17:01
  Speaker 9: Donald Trump. They were talking about it clinically. When Trump
• 17:03
  Speaker 9: behaves like this and he's basically saying we're going to
• 17:06
  Speaker 9: assassinate you, it makes perfect sense why the Iranians would
• 17:09
  Speaker 9: believe that it's necessary to have psychological professionals involved with
• 17:14
  Speaker 9: these kinds of talks. And remember too, the Israelis did
• 17:19
  Speaker 9: try to assassinate the Hamas negotiators late last year in
• 17:23
  Speaker 9: Khatar while they were gathering to deliberate over a proposal
• 17:28
  Speaker 9: that Donald Trump had delivered to them. So it's not
• 17:31
  Speaker 9: just sort of empty threats being hurled out here. So
• 17:34
  Speaker 9: I would say that the current situation is like this,
• 17:37
  Speaker 9: The Israelis may be forced to cease.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: Their fire for some period of time in Lebanon.
• 17:44
  Speaker 9: It does seem from what Vice President Vance said that
• 17:47
  Speaker 9: the US position is that the Israelis are going to
• 17:49
  Speaker 9: remain entrenched at least in some portions of southern Lebanon,
• 17:53
  Speaker 9: if not in all of the positions they're in for
• 17:55
  Speaker 9: the time being. They're talking about doing some experimental zoning
• 18:00
  Speaker 9: of a ceasefire. But the Iranians, I think, have made
• 18:02
  Speaker 9: it very clear to the world and certainly to the
• 18:05
  Speaker 9: United States, that they consider Lebanon a red line. Whether
• 18:08
  Speaker 9: the Iranians will allow the sort of negotiations to proceed
• 18:13
  Speaker 9: even while Israeli troops are entrenched in Lebanon is another question.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: A Baserachi.
• 18:18
  Speaker 9: The Iranian Foreign minister did indicate last week that in
• 18:22
  Speaker 9: communications to Hasbolah, he said that this would be something
• 18:26
  Speaker 9: that would be addressed in the context of the bigger
• 18:28
  Speaker 9: negotiations over.
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: A broader deal.
• 18:31
  Speaker 9: So Netnyahu clearly is going to want to try to
• 18:33
  Speaker 9: sabotage this. As for the sort of particulars, yes, technical
• 18:37
  Speaker 9: teams are negotiating, but it appears as though the United
• 18:40
  Speaker 9: States again didn't actually bring its own high level nuclear experts.
• 18:46
  Speaker 9: You know, the Iranians again they show up with a
• 18:49
  Speaker 9: suite of individuals with PhDs multidisciplinary and the US largely
• 18:54
  Speaker 9: shows up with JD Vance and a couple of guys
• 18:56
  Speaker 9: carrying last week's golf scores. So it's, you know, the
• 18:59
  Speaker 9: idea that Jay Events has to be calling international nuclear
• 19:03
  Speaker 9: experts at two am, As he indicated in his press
• 19:06
  Speaker 9: conference today, that should really raise a lot of eyebrows.
• 19:09
  Speaker 9: Why isn't the US sending very serious negotiators on the
• 19:12
  Speaker 9: nuclear issue? If, as Donald Trump says, that was the
• 19:14
  Speaker 9: most important point of this at all.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Well, I you to do.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: They can just dust off the JCPOA, get alowed to
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: go through, update.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: The date change a little bit of language and there
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: you go.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if anything, Jeremy, we already did it, so maybe
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: we don't need to worry too much. I had said
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: earlier in the show. I'm curious for your reaction. It
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: appears my reading is that they've just given up on
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the technical details and they're going to allow Katar and
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Pakistan to negotiate them with the IAEA, then deliver it signed, sealed,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: and delivered. This kind of gives them a little bit
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: of removal from the process. Also, frankly easier to just
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: delegate much of this. Curious for your reaction to that,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: That was my reading of the Pakistan memorandum.
• 19:53
  Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean again, let's remember too that the Omanis
• 19:55
  Speaker 9: were really the expert mediators between the United States and Iran,
• 19:58
  Speaker 9: and because of Steve Wickof's behavior and the White House's behavior,
• 20:02
  Speaker 9: they toxified the relationship with the most knowledgeable force that
• 20:06
  Speaker 9: the US had been working with for decades on this issue.
• 20:09
  Speaker 9: The Kataris have really emerged as the primary mediators right now. Yes,
• 20:15
  Speaker 9: Pakistan gets to put its signature on these documents, but
• 20:18
  Speaker 9: it's quite clear that Katar is now in the prime
• 20:21
  Speaker 9: position taking the lead on all of this and I
• 20:23
  Speaker 9: think we have to remember again a concession that President
• 20:25
  Speaker 9: Trump made that is very important is that he basically said,
• 20:29
  Speaker 9: we don't actually need the enrich Uraneom to be taken
• 20:32
  Speaker 9: outside of Iran. You know, we could deal with it
• 20:34
  Speaker 9: inside of Iran. That's been the Iranian position going back
• 20:39
  Speaker 9: a year, going back many years when they're talked about
• 20:42
  Speaker 9: potential framework for negotiation. So the Iranians also feel that
• 20:46
  Speaker 9: they want a coup of sorts because Donald Trump is
• 20:49
  Speaker 9: no longer saying they're not allowed to do any enrichment
• 20:51
  Speaker 9: whatsoever if they reach a deal with the United States.
• 20:54
  Speaker 9: That's a massive concession if you just go back a
• 20:57
  Speaker 9: few months or even a few weeks to what Donald
• 20:59
  Speaker 9: Trump was saying. But I think your suspicion in part
• 21:03
  Speaker 9: is true. It might not be limited to the Kataris
• 21:05
  Speaker 9: or the Pakistanis. It also seems like the US wants
• 21:08
  Speaker 9: to kind of co opt the IAEA, which is supposed
• 21:11
  Speaker 9: to be a neutral international body, into effectively being the
• 21:15
  Speaker 9: US enforcer of this. That's why they're pushing for IAEA
• 21:18
  Speaker 9: inspectors or monitors to go into Iran very soon. But
• 21:22
  Speaker 9: you know, if you go back and you look at
• 21:24
  Speaker 9: the roster that the US brought just from an American perspective,
• 21:26
  Speaker 9: doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or a Republican. Just
• 21:29
  Speaker 9: look at it from a purely technical perspective. It's good
• 21:31
  Speaker 9: diplomacy and responsible state craft to bring actual experts that
• 21:36
  Speaker 9: also have security clearances in your country, that also know
• 21:39
  Speaker 9: how to prepare information that can be brief to the
• 21:42
  Speaker 9: President of the United States. When you're outsourcing these core
• 21:45
  Speaker 9: issues that the President has defined as the single most
• 21:48
  Speaker 9: important issue to the IAEA or to Klatar or to Pakistan,
• 21:53
  Speaker 9: then you're sort of saying, well, we don't need American
• 21:56
  Speaker 9: expertise in the room. And it just goes to show
• 21:58
  Speaker 9: you again it's another indicator of how kind of fraudulent
• 22:01
  Speaker 9: the entire architecture of justifying this war was from the
• 22:04
  Speaker 9: very beginning.
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that is so well said.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit more about nnna Who in Lebanon.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: As you indicated, you know, they do not seem like
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: they are willing to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Let's go
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: and take a listen to a little bit of nanna
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: who's recent comments on that front.
• 22:22
  Speaker 10: As long as we need to protect our people, we
• 22:26
  Speaker 10: will remain in the security zone in South Lebanon. And
• 22:29
  Speaker 10: the reason, the reason is perfectly understood. No country would
• 22:34
  Speaker 10: be asked to do otherwise. Now you imagine the United
• 22:37
  Speaker 10: States across the border. You have thousands, an army of
• 22:42
  Speaker 10: thousands of terrorists who pellet your cities and your towns
• 22:46
  Speaker 10: with rockets and ballistic missiles and killer drones. They kill
• 22:50
  Speaker 10: your soldiers, they kill your citizens, they kill your children,
• 22:53
  Speaker 10: and they threaten them every day. Well what would America do? Say, Well,
• 23:00
  Speaker 10: there's nothing we can.
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: Do, Jeremy.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: The Memo of Understanding explicitly talks about Lebanese sovereignty. Is
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: this going to be acceptable to the Iranians?
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: I suspect it won't.
• 23:11
  Speaker 9: I mean it will be if if, in fact, Donald
• 23:14
  Speaker 9: Trump and Jade Vance are able to restrain net Nyahoo
• 23:18
  Speaker 9: and the Israelis genuinely do stop firing, then I think
• 23:22
  Speaker 9: there is a window open where the Iranians can then say, Okay,
• 23:26
  Speaker 9: there is a quote unquote cessation of fire happening right now,
• 23:29
  Speaker 9: and now we need to address the issue of the withdrawal,
• 23:31
  Speaker 9: and that may buy some time. And again Arachi has
• 23:34
  Speaker 9: indicated that that may be the reality. The Iranians would
• 23:37
  Speaker 9: be willing to accept. On the flip side of this,
• 23:40
  Speaker 9: net Nahou in particular has a real expertise in violating ceasefires.
• 23:46
  Speaker 9: You know, Rafat a Larier, the Palestinian poet and writer
• 23:51
  Speaker 9: from Gaza who was assassinated by the Israelis during the genocide,
• 23:54
  Speaker 9: often remarked that the Israeli definition of a ceasefire is
• 23:58
  Speaker 9: that we fire and sees. And we're certainly seeing that
• 24:02
  Speaker 9: in Gaza, where the Israelis have killed more than a
• 24:04
  Speaker 9: thousand Palestinians since the so called ceasefire was signed in October.
• 24:09
  Speaker 9: And so I would suspect that if Netnahu tries to
• 24:12
  Speaker 9: replicate that definition of a ceasefire, that this is going
• 24:15
  Speaker 9: to become a potential deal breaker. Every single time there's
• 24:19
  Speaker 9: an incident, there's a parallel track happening, which, if you
• 24:22
  Speaker 9: listen to what President Trump and Jade Vance have said,
• 24:25
  Speaker 9: they're a little bit contradicting each other over the weekend.
• 24:27
  Speaker 9: In the messaging, Donald Trump is supposedly claiming that he's
• 24:30
  Speaker 9: going to get ahmedal Shara, the president of Syria that
• 24:34
  Speaker 9: he claims he personally installed in power, that somehow a
• 24:37
  Speaker 9: former al Qaeda leader is going to lead the charge
• 24:40
  Speaker 9: to dismantle and destroy Hesbollah in another state inside of Lebanon.
• 24:46
  Speaker 9: Sharrah gave an interview to Lebanese TV where he seemed
• 24:50
  Speaker 9: to push back against that and talked about respecting the
• 24:53
  Speaker 9: sovereignty of Lebanon and then saying that he's willing to
• 24:56
  Speaker 9: engage with leaders of Hesbollah and others, so at least
• 24:59
  Speaker 9: publicly indicating that that's not going to happen, even though
• 25:02
  Speaker 9: Trump was sort of saying, Oh, the final touches are
• 25:04
  Speaker 9: being put on this new war. We're going to start
• 25:06
  Speaker 9: involving the Syrians going into Lebanon, which would be an
• 25:09
  Speaker 9: utter blood bath and an insane bit of lunacy even
• 25:12
  Speaker 9: by Trump standards. But then you have JD. Vance saying
• 25:16
  Speaker 9: some interesting things. He says that the agreement talks about
• 25:19
  Speaker 9: the territorial integrity of Lebanon. Now the Iranians say that
• 25:23
  Speaker 9: means you can't have Israeli occupation forces there.
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: JD.
• 25:26
  Speaker 9: Vance seemed to indicate that it needs to be aimed
• 25:30
  Speaker 9: at resolving the issue of Hesbolah. And this is why
• 25:34
  Speaker 9: there's this other track where they're trying to co opt
• 25:36
  Speaker 9: the United States and Israel trying to co opt the
• 25:39
  Speaker 9: Lebanese government under President Joseph Allun into essentially serving as
• 25:43
  Speaker 9: the Lebanese counter terrorism force that's going to go in
• 25:47
  Speaker 9: and crush Hesbola. So I would imagine what VANCE is
• 25:51
  Speaker 9: kind of trying to prepare the public for, or what
• 25:54
  Speaker 9: indicates the US position behind closed doors, is that they're
• 25:57
  Speaker 9: going to try to say, we can get the Israeli
• 26:00
  Speaker 9: to leave as long as the Lebanese army, which is
• 26:03
  Speaker 9: trained in part and supported by the United States, and
• 26:06
  Speaker 9: this is what Israel's been calling for, if we can
• 26:08
  Speaker 9: get the Lebanese army to come in and take over
• 26:10
  Speaker 9: Hesbela positions, that also is reasserting the sovereignty and territorial
• 26:15
  Speaker 9: integrity of Lebanon. That though, raise this questions of civil war,
• 26:19
  Speaker 9: civil strifes, civil conflict in Lebanon when you don't have
• 26:23
  Speaker 9: a political resolution in a Lebanese context to the question
• 26:26
  Speaker 9: of Hesbelah, which is not just an armed actor in
• 26:29
  Speaker 9: the region, it also has members of parliament affiliated with
• 26:33
  Speaker 9: it and up until recently was actually a crucial part
• 26:36
  Speaker 9: of the government before it was sort of forced out
• 26:37
  Speaker 9: of it. So it does seem like Vance's track on
• 26:40
  Speaker 9: this is to try to merge this secondary peace, so
• 26:45
  Speaker 9: called peace process that the White House has been orchestrating
• 26:48
  Speaker 9: with this MoU and the idea is that the US
• 26:51
  Speaker 9: could sort of pick two flowers with one hand by saying, oh,
• 26:54
  Speaker 9: we're stopping the Israelis from firing. And by the way,
• 26:57
  Speaker 9: the Lebanese army is now going to take up positions
• 26:59
  Speaker 9: in the south of Leben, which will be resisted by
• 27:01
  Speaker 9: a lot of supporters of has Bela. So this issue
• 27:05
  Speaker 9: is going to get very, very complicated. It's the single
• 27:07
  Speaker 9: greatest issue that has the potential to blow the entire
• 27:09
  Speaker 9: deal up, in part because the Iranians have made it
• 27:11
  Speaker 9: abundantly clear that they view has belas their ally, that
• 27:15
  Speaker 9: they view has belas a party to this, and that
• 27:17
  Speaker 9: they view the United States and Israel in violation of
• 27:19
  Speaker 9: the deal as long as that war continues.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, It's not like they're just going to surrender
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: their own like you said, there's look, this is a
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: decade's long problem inside of Lebanon. They're not just going
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: to seed all of their own authority hard fought in
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: this particular case to the Lebanese government, especially if it's
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: under control of the United States. Last thing I do
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: want to clear up something I said earlier where I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: mentioned that the Deconfliction Cell would include Israel. Currently, the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: initial report Jeremy is that it actually won't include Israel.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I mean, maybe that's a good thing,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: if the United States were actually to tell Israel what
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: to do and what not to do. At the same time,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: per Neett Yahu's comments, they're not going to stop the
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: number are the types of strikes they're continuing to do
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: in Lebanon. So it does seem as if that may
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: not be useful the so called Deconfliction Cell, if it
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: is not going to actually be able to restrain Israeli behavior,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: which I feel like it.
• 28:10
  Speaker 9: I mean, it also speaks in part and again we
• 28:12
  Speaker 9: don't know what's happening behind the scenes between the United
• 28:15
  Speaker 9: States and Israel at this point, but the Israelis are
• 28:18
  Speaker 9: also ferociously trying to resist themselves being party to this
• 28:22
  Speaker 9: Iran deal. I mean, that's net Yahoo's messaging is that
• 28:26
  Speaker 9: Donald Trump, as President of the United States, has a
• 28:28
  Speaker 9: right to make a deal with Iran, but Israel is
• 28:31
  Speaker 9: not bound by those terms. It's what he's using to
• 28:33
  Speaker 9: justify their continued presence in Lebanon. He's going to try
• 28:36
  Speaker 9: to spin any sort of agreement that he makes that
• 28:40
  Speaker 9: clearly is related to the MoU as having to do
• 28:43
  Speaker 9: with the bilateral relationship between the United States and the
• 28:46
  Speaker 9: bilateral relationship Israel has with the Lebanese government, and to
• 28:50
  Speaker 9: avoid it being that they're making some deal that's an
• 28:52
  Speaker 9: omnibus package. But in the issue of this deconfliction, when
• 28:57
  Speaker 9: they implemented a similar monitoring mechanism for Gaza, the fact
• 29:02
  Speaker 9: that they didn't include the Palestinian side sent a very
• 29:06
  Speaker 9: clear message that this was just a US Israeli project
• 29:09
  Speaker 9: that was operating under the veneer of being some kind
• 29:12
  Speaker 9: of a monitoring cell. I think in this case, what
• 29:15
  Speaker 9: Vance is talking about with the establishment of this is
• 29:18
  Speaker 9: literally to try to stop the Israelis from blowing up
• 29:20
  Speaker 9: the deal and to try to have a mechanism to
• 29:23
  Speaker 9: speak directly to the Iranians. They also opened a line
• 29:25
  Speaker 9: of communication that has to do with the Strait of Hormos.
• 29:29
  Speaker 9: But in the broader picture, if we zoom up to
• 29:31
  Speaker 9: thirty thousand feet, I think we have to look at
• 29:33
  Speaker 9: this as kind of two separate but related tracks. On
• 29:36
  Speaker 9: the one hand, we have the short term realities that
• 29:39
  Speaker 9: the Israeli war in Lebanon has the potential to really
• 29:42
  Speaker 9: blow up this deal. And I would also add to
• 29:45
  Speaker 9: that Donald Trump's erratic behavior. The Iranians are fed up
• 29:48
  Speaker 9: with him making these public threats, and they're under pressure
• 29:51
  Speaker 9: from their own government. Remember, the Supreme Leader of Iran
• 29:55
  Speaker 9: did not wholly endorse this MoU He simply granted consent
• 29:59
  Speaker 9: for i Ron's political leaders to move forward with these negotiations.
• 30:03
  Speaker 9: And there are a lot of Iranians, including prominent members
• 30:05
  Speaker 9: of the Iranian parliament, who are adamantly opposed to what
• 30:08
  Speaker 9: Alibaf and Arachi are doing. Meeting with jade Vance, meeting
• 30:12
  Speaker 9: with the Americans. So all of those things together create
• 30:16
  Speaker 9: very unstable terrain that this is operating on. But then
• 30:19
  Speaker 9: in the longer term, yes, the Iranians do seem to
• 30:22
  Speaker 9: be succeeding in getting some of their assets on frozen.
• 30:25
  Speaker 9: Jd Vance said this thing about they need to import
• 30:27
  Speaker 9: American soy, American corn. We'll have to see what the
• 30:29
  Speaker 9: Iranians say about about that deal. But in the longer term,
• 30:35
  Speaker 9: if this moves on and the Iranians are not getting
• 30:37
  Speaker 9: substantial sanctions relief and the nuclear issue. Donald Trump could
• 30:41
  Speaker 9: blow the whole thing up and say, oh, wait a minute, no,
• 30:43
  Speaker 9: we do need to go in and take the nuclear dust.
• 30:45
  Speaker 9: We actually have to send the Marines in to retrieve this.
• 30:48
  Speaker 9: The whole thing could go south very very fast. The Iranians,
• 30:51
  Speaker 9: the most important thing to them in terms of the
• 30:53
  Speaker 9: war is they feel that they've succeeded in restoring deterrence.
• 30:57
  Speaker 9: That no matter what Donald Trump says or Lindsey Graham saying,
• 30:59
  Speaker 9: oh so that the next step is Donald Trump's going
• 31:01
  Speaker 9: to go in and seize the Strait of Hormos. Good
• 31:03
  Speaker 9: luck with that without losing a substantial number of American soldiers.
• 31:07
  Speaker 9: I mean, that's lunacy. The kind of lunacy Lindsay Graham
• 31:10
  Speaker 9: has put a banked his entire career on. But just
• 31:13
  Speaker 9: to show you how the neokon nutcases in Washington think
• 31:15
  Speaker 9: about this, you just need to watch any comments from
• 31:18
  Speaker 9: Lindsey Graham. But I think the Iranians feel like they
• 31:22
  Speaker 9: have a win win in a sense. Yes, I think
• 31:24
  Speaker 9: they would prefer comprehensive sanctions, relief, a state of non
• 31:27
  Speaker 9: aggression with the United States, an ability to sort of
• 31:30
  Speaker 9: allow their society to thrive free of suffocating sanctions. I
• 31:33
  Speaker 9: think all of that is true, but it's also true
• 31:36
  Speaker 9: that there is political support at the highest levels of
• 31:39
  Speaker 9: power in Iran for taking a much harder line and saying,
• 31:42
  Speaker 9: if the United States doesn't learn its lesson, we keep
• 31:44
  Speaker 9: slapping them back, and by slapping we meet using the
• 31:47
  Speaker 9: option of military force or asymmetric tactics to shut down
• 31:50
  Speaker 9: the global economy as it depends on the Strait of Hormos.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: That was actually the last piece I wanted to get
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: from you, and we could put a six back up
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: on the screen. This is the tanker traffic through the
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Straight of Hormves. You know, Trump and what I think
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: was an honest moment, said that he it would be
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: bedlam if we kept the Straight of Hormuves closed. The
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: oil markets would be a disaster. We know that oil
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: executives came to him and basically, like, listen, buddy, we've
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: kept it together here so far. Basically China has saved
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: our asses by reducing their imports of oil significantly.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: But this can't go on forever.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: What is your understanding of the current state of play
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: of the Strait of Hormuz. Because we talked earlier about
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: how Iran has said that they have closed it again
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: or limiting traffic again because of Israeli violations of the
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: MoU and Lebanon.
• 32:39
  Speaker 9: I mean, I think this is another staggering admission off
• 32:42
  Speaker 9: the cuff by Donald Trump, and it just shows the hubris.
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: You know, he thought, oh, this thing is all sewn up.
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: I have it.
• 32:48
  Speaker 9: The stock market's going to be celebrating me again, and
• 32:50
  Speaker 9: we're going to have the you know, price of oil
• 32:52
  Speaker 9: is going to plummet. And the Iranians and I think
• 32:55
  Speaker 9: they also understood the market manipulation tactics at play here.
• 32:59
  Speaker 9: I think they've timed their closure of the Strait of
• 33:01
  Speaker 9: Hormuz in sync with Trump's constant, recurring attempts to manipulate
• 33:07
  Speaker 9: markets by making certain decisions public on the various stages
• 33:12
  Speaker 9: of the negotiations. But I think it's quite clear that
• 33:16
  Speaker 9: Iran has a very firm handle.
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: Of control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• 33:21
  Speaker 9: This was something that the Iranians had contemplated doing for many,
• 33:25
  Speaker 9: many years. It's not like this was just something they
• 33:27
  Speaker 9: cooked up. When the United States and Israel bomb February
• 33:30
  Speaker 9: twenty eighth. They understood the global impact that was going
• 33:33
  Speaker 9: to have and they stopped short of doing this during
• 33:36
  Speaker 9: other wars. I think because they felt like this is
• 33:39
  Speaker 9: going to be a tool will bring out when we
• 33:42
  Speaker 9: feel we're facing an existential threat. And now that they've
• 33:46
  Speaker 9: done it, and now that they've emerged with their state intact,
• 33:49
  Speaker 9: with their government intact, and with the world being quite
• 33:52
  Speaker 9: nervous about the idea of another war in Iran, and
• 33:55
  Speaker 9: combine that with Donald Trump's admission about the actual cost
• 33:59
  Speaker 9: of this and how close the United States came to
• 34:02
  Speaker 9: an even further catastrophic economic situation, I think it ultimately
• 34:06
  Speaker 9: puts cards back in the hands of the Iranians.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Well said Jeremy, thank you for your analysis, man, really
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: spot on.
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: Appreciate you guys, thanks for all your work.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: As Jeremy said, we really got to watch out for
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham. And that is exactly the plan that is
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: being hatched out in the open here in Washington, where
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: many of the Hawks are quasi endorsing the diplomatic process
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: that we just ran through. But they have an alternative plan,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: an alternative plan that perhaps Trump has already opened the
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: door to. Here is Lindsay Graham on face the nation.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: This weekend advocating for this new plan of just taking
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: over the entire Strait of horm Moves.
• 34:39
  Speaker 11: Let's take a listen, Let's try a diplomatic solution. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 11: think it's going to fail.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: What happens next.
• 34:46
  Speaker 11: I spent four and a half hours with President Trump Friday.
• 34:50
  Speaker 11: Here's what I think will happen next. If this deal fails,
• 34:53
  Speaker 11: President Trump is going to take the Straight of horror
• 34:56
  Speaker 11: Moves over by force. The United States will control the
• 34:59
  Speaker 11: Strait of hormon Moves, will charge a fee for all
• 35:02
  Speaker 11: those who go three through to pay for the operation.
• 35:05
  Speaker 11: And we're going to expand to Abraham Accords and calendar
• 35:08
  Speaker 11: year twenty twenty six. We're going to get Saudi Arabia
• 35:12
  Speaker 11: joined the Abram Accords, and which is the biggest change
• 35:16
  Speaker 11: in five thousand years in the Mideast. And if Iran
• 35:18
  Speaker 11: contests control of the Strait of Hormoz by the United
• 35:22
  Speaker 11: States will obliterate them. So to all the people listening,
• 35:26
  Speaker 11: if this diplomatic effort fails, President Trump is going to
• 35:31
  Speaker 11: take the Strait of Hormones. We're going to run it.
• 35:34
  Speaker 11: We're going to try to get Saudi Arabia to join
• 35:36
  Speaker 11: the Abram Accords in the Arab Israeli conflict in twenty
• 35:39
  Speaker 11: twenty six. And if Aran continues to attack Israel in Lebanon,
• 35:43
  Speaker 11: the new policy will be will hit Iran.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: The new policy will be will hit Iron if Hesbola
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: continues to hit Israel, and we'll just take over the
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: straight up removed. Now, obviously this is just completely nuts.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Taking over the straight by force. They act like it's
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: going to be some sort of weekend adventure. This would
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: take hundreds of thousands of troops. Also, once they're there,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: if the rest of Iran is not conquered, they can
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: use these little things called drones that we all just
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: saw to fire them from the inland to the troops
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: that are all stationed there. Brandon Wiker had actually laid
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: all of this out initially when we were discovered discussing
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: much of this. It would be Gallipoli. It would be
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: a complete military disaster. But this is still something that
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Trump is considering. Let's put B two up here on
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: the screen. He said it just yesterday. There will be
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz for sixty days
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: during the ceasefire period. There will be no tolls after
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the sixty day period has expired unless they are imposed
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: by and for the United States of America should the
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: deal not be completed. For services rendered as the Guardian
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: you for your attention.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: They really thank us for our involvement in the region
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: over the past twenty six years.
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Great, thank Yes, we are the Guardian Angel, the Guardians
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: of the Strait of Hormons. It can make Marvel movie
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: about it, all of it would be funny if this
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: is not you know, this is the thing about Trump.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: This is what we warned about earlier. Is yeah, right
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: now he's silent. If we were to think about Trump,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: Trump is ultimately, you know, from the Apprentice, which is
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: probably the you know, sole reason why he's President of
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: the United States. What does he do? He auditions different things.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: So you could think of the Iran war as an
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: audition for the Lindsay Graham and for Marco Rubio and
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: for himself of course, because he bears responsibility bb Netanyahu.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: They obviously failed. So now he's like, okay, let's sholve Rubio.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Let's shelve that and let's break out the alternate cast
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: for the Apprentice Jadvan. But the problem is is that
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: he is like hovering on top of it, and these
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: nefarious actors Bbe and Lindsey Graham and the entire hawk
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: commentariat class which is seriously pushing this option, and it's
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: telling him, sir, you gave up to early, you can
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: easily go back to it. This is you know, I
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: gave an analogy in our last show about this, about
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: the First World War, where you know a lot of
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Germans were shocked when they surrendered because they Germany had
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: never been invaded, so they're like, how can this be possible?
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: And that's where the Israeli idea, which they're borrowing from
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: ironically from the Germans of nineteen nineteen, which eventually became
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: the Nazis, is the stabbed in the back theory, and
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: they were the only conceivable reason that they had to
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: surrender was that they were stabbed in the back, and
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: there were all these fantasy military options that they had
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: on the table which were all bullshit. But you know,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: they get twenty years later they could be like, no,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: we could have done this. It's kind of like lost
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: causers who like will analyze General Longstreet, Gettysburg. If you
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: had just done this, they would have won. I've met
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: too many of them. But the point is around this
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: is that they're creating a mythos in real time and
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: the power of that is really strong because thereby propping
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: that up with Fox News and then you will never
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: hear a defender of the deal on Fox News. You'll
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: never hear a deal defender of the deal even on CNN. Honestly,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: it's insanity, Like did you see that Caitlyn Collins thing
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: where she's like, whoa what Ron has a right to
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: self defense? You're like, yeah, do is that so crazy?
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: But as this starts to bubble itself up, and let's
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: say things start popping off in Lebanon and the Iranians, oh,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know, walk out because they're like, hey, that's
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: our red line. How easy do you think this will
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: be to cement into Trump's mind? It's going to be
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: non stop. Remember Fox and Friends, Brian kill me. He's
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: against this thing. He's been trashing it every single day.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: You got Sean Hannity and Esse Jesse Waters seems to
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: be somewhat on board. I don't know, IQ is low
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: enough but then the rest of these guys like they're very,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: very smart political actors. So I'm just I'm watching this
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: very very closely.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: This is why we must protect Tree to Parsi at
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: all costs. He's one of the few reasonable voices just
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: because he's so impressive and elegant of a person that
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: they allow on to CNN at least in the mainstream press.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: But the thing I note most about Lindsay Graham's posture here,
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: which is really we have to pay attention to as
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: he says, sure, let's try the negotiations. They're going to
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: fail not and he is invested in that failure. He
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: will be involved in doing everything he can and to
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: make sure that that failure comes to pass. We covered
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: last week, Netanyahu is pushing you know, Mark Levin and
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz and their other sort of like bought off
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: or influence peddlers here in the US to make sure
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: they're doing what they can to undermine this deal. So
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: when he says they'll probably fail, it's not like he's
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: just some disinterested observer, you know, guessing what's going to
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: happen here. He is going to be doing everything that
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: he can to make sure that is going to fail.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: We did have to bring you this though, because this
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: is an incredible turn of events for Batchet Ungar Sargan,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: who has been one of Trump's fiercest defenders, you know,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: saying that he truly is this this warrior, Yeah, this
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: warrior for the working class, etc. But you know, she's
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: also very pro Israel, and so she has been really
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: critical of the deal and the possibility of negotiations. Here,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: let's go and take a listen to a little bit
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: of her commentary talking about what a terrible week Jadie
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Vance had because he went out and actually said some
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: honest things about about Israel.
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: For one s with stigalism.
• 41:02
  Speaker 12: Vance implied that all opponents to this terrible MoU are
• 41:06
  Speaker 12: warhawks who want a forever war and boots on the ground,
• 41:10
  Speaker 12: who have some kind of bloodthirst for endless Iranian deaths.
• 41:14
  Speaker 12: Just an appalling straw man. I don't know anyone who
• 41:17
  Speaker 12: wants boots on the ground. The whole point of the
• 41:19
  Speaker 12: US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was that we
• 41:22
  Speaker 12: didn't need boots on the ground. And while Vance spent
• 41:25
  Speaker 12: all week talking about how cool the IRGC is, he
• 41:29
  Speaker 12: repeatedly blasted Israel, Israelis, and Israeli politicians inventing bizarre scenarios
• 41:36
  Speaker 12: in which he fantasized about how many Iranians Israel wanted
• 41:40
  Speaker 12: to kill. Here's how he ended his press conference.
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: Donald J.
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: Trump is the only head of state in the entire
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: this moment in time. And he happens to be the
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: head of state of the world's superpower. If I was
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: be attacking the only powerful ally that I have. And
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: President of the United States needs to wake up and
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: smell the reality of the situation that country is in.
• 42:16
  Speaker 12: Apparently, according to our Vice President, you got to hand
• 42:19
  Speaker 12: it to the Iranians for negotiating in good faith. It's
• 42:23
  Speaker 12: Israel that's the real impediment to peace.
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: Here's the truth.
• 42:29
  Speaker 12: Vice President JD. Bans just brought the Great United States
• 42:32
  Speaker 12: to its knees with a humiliating deal weeks before our
• 42:37
  Speaker 12: two hundred and fiftieth birthday. And he's decided, like many
• 42:40
  Speaker 12: before him, to blame Israel for the mess. His administration created.
• 42:46
  Speaker 12: If this was a dry run for twenty twenty eight,
• 42:48
  Speaker 12: it was at least very clarifying.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: So in response to similar commentary from Batya, the White
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: House actually went after her aggressively with us a screen.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: They say, the only humiliation here is Batchya desperately begging
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: for an additional brain cell because her failing TV show
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: is even more irrelevant than the likes of Caitlin Collins
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: and Fake Tapper. Only a moron of her caliber could
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: still doubt President Trump's leadership.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Agreed, unreal trust the woman.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this woman sucked up to them so aggressively. We
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: internally nicked named her bag dad Batia because she was
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: always on the pro Trump talking points, going on CNN
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: to make the case. That's how she ends up with
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: this news nation, gig et cetera. And after all of that,
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: the moment she criticizes them on one thing, they turn
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: on her and say she is a moron who needs
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: an additional brain cell.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Well, in some way, Look, how can you not love it? Right?
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Because because currently the entire this is the thing about
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Trump and the entire ecosystem, which genuinely makes this all fair.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: In nineteen eighty four, because a month ago, she and
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: the entire neo connon dust complex who were defending the deal.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: We're being celebrated really by these same White House accounts
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: and the people like us who were criticizing it. We
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: would be the ones under attack. But in the same
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: way that it's like, you know, Oceana has always been
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: at war with Eurasia or whatever. It's like, now that
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the deal is Trump's policy, now you're doubting the president.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: But that's part of why I love it is because
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: these same people, for literally months made it. I've said this, like,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: have made a whole show about Trump is so independent,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: he cannot be controlled. The idea that Israel controls him
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: is preposterous. He makes his own decisions. And then he
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: did make his own decision, and he was like, actually,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: the war that you guys wanted was a total disaster,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: so we're going to try something else. So they cry
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: about it, and he's use the same logic. You can
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: actually see many of his own allies now or you know,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: opponent or proponents of the deal, using the same language
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: of police. They're like, why are you distrusting Trump? Why
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: don't you trust the plan? You sound like a Panican
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: why are you not Why are you doubting the wisdom
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: of our great commander and chief. And he's the one
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: who selected our vice president, right, and so look, this
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: is why, you know, trying to engage in this like
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: who is the true you know, speaker for the czar
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Just say your ideas, like, say your ideas
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: on what they are. And if you don't, you know,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: sometimes all the line and sometimes they don't. That's mostly
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: where things stand right now. But I mean, Tucker made
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: a good point one of the danger. Tucker made a
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: good point I think in his prelude to his interview
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: with Tretah where he's like, look, here's the thing about Trump.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Trump betrayed basically all of his own voters except for
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: these neo cons and so you almost can't blame them
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: for being mad when he also does the same thing
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: that he did for everybody else. At the same time,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: you know, if we're being honest, everything they're saying about
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the deal is correct in the sense that, yes, it
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: was an American humiliation, but it was an American ehaliation because
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: of you, and the humiliation is still somehow preferable to
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty thousand ground troops who have to
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: seize the strait of horn moves. But again, I do
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: think all of this stuff palace intrigue really interesting in
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the sense that they were the last fierce defenders of
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration, and as we're all about to show
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: you with the polling, they could not. I mean, maybe
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: this is the final good thing about this. At least
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: we can see that the vast majority of the people
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: who sold this war, support this war, who are the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: loudest defenders of Trump, are so deeply out of touch
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: with the American people that it is laughable when you
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: actually look at the polls. Nothing could be said, nothing
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: further from the truth could be said that Americans are
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: like crying about that. The only people crying are the
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: neo cons here in Washington and all over television. Yea,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: you know, I literally long for somebody to be able
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: to go on Fox or CNN or anything and just
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: tell the truth for once about the deal. Not just
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: treat on a weekend show. I'm talking about actual prime
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: time for one of it. Not that anybody's gonna watch it,
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: but the people who do watch it are the members
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: of Congress and all these others like some honesty needs
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: to be injected into the system. That's why when Jad
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: just says the basic stuff about Israel, be like yeah,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: they're just like any other nation, They're like, oh my god,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: they have a total don't yeah about it?
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, and here's the thing too, Trump five
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: seconds ago was aggressively trashing Megie Kelly and Ta Carlson
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: for being on you know, against the war. Now that
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: he wants a deal, you know, the people who are
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: on the other side are now suddenly the villains. So
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's no there's no through line here, right,
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: It's all just about where is he today and do
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: you support that or are you critical effect? The only
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: way that you can stay in his good graces is
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: if you support the original stupid position and the new
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: better position, Like you can't have any principles or consistency
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: because at some point you're going to end up on
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: the wrong side of him, because he has no principles
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: and consistency, as evidenced by the fact that we you know,
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: literally played for you in the earlier block, how he
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: is threatening to murder the Iranian negotiators in Switzerland before
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: they even return home. So that is the nature of
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: what you sign up for when you decide to defend
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: this man and try to be, you know, in the
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: inside of the court and be one of the favored commentators.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: At some point, if you stick to any consistency at all,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: you will end up being completely humiliated by this man,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: because that's just what he does.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: That's right, all right, Let's get to polling. Turning now
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: to polling. As we just mentioned about how wildly out
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: of touch the neo cons a our CBS News just
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: ran a new poll and even for them, remember this,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: like zionist media outlet at least tried to do a
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: bit of a survey and found seventy eight percent of
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Americans want the Iran war to end now, as in
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: right now here they are confronting Mike Waltz, the UN
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Ambassador or the US Ambassador to the United Nations about this.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 48:37
  Speaker 13: The war is unpopular, as you just heard, but how
• 48:40
  Speaker 13: it ends matters, As you know, CBS's Olivia Gazi's is
• 48:45
  Speaker 13: reporting that senior members of Trump's national security team, including
• 48:49
  Speaker 13: Secretary Rubio, remained doubtful Iran will comply with this deal's terms.
• 48:54
  Speaker 13: The CIA director presented Trump with intelligence indicating inconsistencies Iran's commitments.
• 49:01
  Speaker 13: So if even the president's own team doubts this is
• 49:04
  Speaker 13: a win, how do you sell this to the public.
• 49:10
  Speaker 14: Well, Margaret, I'll go back to other polling that shows
• 49:15
  Speaker 14: that the American people absolutely agree with President Trump that
• 49:19
  Speaker 14: Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Of course, we
• 49:22
  Speaker 14: all want lower gas prices. They are lower, below four
• 49:25
  Speaker 14: dollars and falling with more work to do. They're cheaper
• 49:29
  Speaker 14: than under the Biden administration. We'll remember just a few
• 49:32
  Speaker 14: months ago when analysts we're saying oil would be upwards
• 49:36
  Speaker 14: of one hundred and fifty to two hundred dollars a barrel,
• 49:39
  Speaker 14: and it is not. It's now under eighty. Of Course,
• 49:42
  Speaker 14: everyone wants cheaper energy. But what President Trump is doing
• 49:46
  Speaker 14: is striking that balance with also ensuring that a genocidal
• 49:50
  Speaker 14: regime that none of us trust can never have a
• 49:54
  Speaker 14: nuclear weapon, and that process is underway right now as
• 49:57
  Speaker 14: we speak.
• 49:58
  Speaker 13: Well, the American people also don't want Iran to have
• 50:00
  Speaker 13: a nuclear weapon, we see that in our polling, but
• 50:03
  Speaker 13: they're unconvinced that this interim agreement achieves that.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: So you can see then, you know, even in terms
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: of the This is the problem that they set their
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: goals so maximalist whenever it came to what they wanted
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: to accomplish, and then the deal itself. This is why
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I was saying earlier, you almost can't blame the neoconso.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Like you said on conditional surrender, you said you were
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: gonna do all this, and then now we're like, okay, well,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: just maybe don't charge a toll just for sixty days.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe in the future you can, and then let in
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the IE inspectors who were already there and who were
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: on the table for being admitted back in June, and
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: all just just let's just go right back to when
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: you bomb you in the first place, over a year ago.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: We could have just we could just do do that
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: maybe please, pretty please, you know, just for the price
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: of oil. So that's the problem, you know, that they face.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: But this polling is just so stark for them. Let's
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: put it up here on the screen. We have some
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: of the slides the conflict with Iran. What should the
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: US do now?
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: End it?
• 50:55
  Speaker 10: Now?
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Only twenty two percent continue the conflict until Iran gives
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: up more. Let's go to the next one. What do
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: we say here was the conflict with They're on worth
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: the cost thirty one percent? Worth the cost sixty nine percent? No,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: not worth the costs. Let's go to the next one.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Shall We did the conflict with they'reon quote solve more
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: problems than it created twenty one percent. I don't really
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: know how so few people came along just with that one,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: but then create more problems and it solve fifty seven percent. Yes,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: and then neither was twenty one Let's go to the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: next one. This is the most important one to me.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Among Republicans. What should the US now do now? All
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Republicans sixty percent, even self identified MAGA Republicans is fifty
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: six continue the conflict until Iran gives up more forty
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: percent and forty four percent with all Republicans versus MAGA
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Republicans respectively. So MAGA Republicans probably the most propagandized group
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: to even potentially say that we should continue this conflict,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: mainlining Fox News into the bloodstream for the last one
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: hundred days. Even they are like, yeah, I just need
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: this thing to end. I need it to end now.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: And that's even with I mean, you know, he's selling
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: the deal, but not really like is he really selling
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: the deal as he was. The war not even close.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: You just have JD out there, you have no real
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: media support for it, and yet the fifty six percent
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: of the MAGA Republicans are there. So for the Batyas
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: and for you know, for all the neocons and the
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: free presses and all of them of the world who
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: you know self identified speak on behalf of Maga. Nothing
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: can be further from the truth, at least in this
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: one particular case. Even all your bullshit, they're not.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Buying, and the Israelis actually see it even more clearly
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: the loss. There was a new poll there that found
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: ninety two percent of all Israelis believe that the Islamic
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: Republic of Ron won the war. Among supporters of Netanyawo,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: it was ninety three percent that believe Aaran won the war. So,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: you know, they're looking at this and they're like, this
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: was a disaster. I mean, I would love to have
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: a chart of the emotional highs and lows, oh, I know,
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: of the Neocons and the Zionists over this period, because man,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: remember the beginning of the war, they were going on TV.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: They were so happy Trump's threatening to murder their entire civilization.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: They're so delighted he's calling for their runnie and people
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: to rise up. There's all these rumors about We're going
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: to arm the Kurds and send them in and.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: Start a civil war.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: They were so happy about all of that, delighted and
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: now that we actually have a possibility at ending this
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: utter disaster, devastation, humiliation, etc. Now you could not see
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: a group of people if you tried.
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: All they want is to go back to the war.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: The promises of unconditional surrender, the delusions of regime change.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: They want to go immediately back to that fantasy land.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Exactly. Let's put this last one here, C three up here,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: just because this is where that Maga republican line where
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: we should end it. Now. This also comes though, on
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: the other side of can you come back from the war?
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: And I support and in the war, I'll support and
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: I'll attack all the people who want to continue it.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: But if we're all being honest, for a lot of
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: the people who were burned by them, and especially economically,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: can you come back? And as Washington Post writes here,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: for cash strapped farmers, the deal to end Iran fighting
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: comes too late. Some of the present's strongest supporters hurting
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: as the midterm elections approach, and they interview many of
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: them costs of outrun sales all of this year, mostly
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: because of Iran, especially with the fuel and the fertilizer
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: bills that continue to rise. Diesel quote has not been
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: cheaper since mid March. Urea fertilizer in recent days sold
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: for less than it did before the fighting began. However,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: the financial damage has been done, and they specifically point
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: to the Iran war as the number one reason why
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: they saw those Scott costs skyrocket in the interim from Urea,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: which we covered some of those charts, fertilizer, many of
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: the other things from the early days in the war,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: but over and over again they point to soybean, cotton,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: sweet potato, tobacco, corn, sunflowers, which is many of the
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: places where Tyson farms.
• 54:55
  Speaker 11: There.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: Rate one of the people that they interviewed here and
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: he says he runs the operation from his own property
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: and he just goes into detail about the damage that
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: they have taken. And this was already after the tariffs
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: that had hit in June, so you have too successive
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: what I would say were real crises for the American
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: farmer in their market with no requisite relief or anything
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: from Congress. And I mean, look, I mean, are they
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: going to vote Democrat. Probably not, but they're definitely just
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: not going to vote whenever it comes midterm election time,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: and even in twenty twenty eight, is it going to
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: be that easy, you know, to go on board what
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Trump Donald Trump says is going to be a good
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: thing to be Maybe I could be wrong, but I
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: think this is going to burn people. I really do.
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel bad for these guys.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: Not only so you've got the tariffs are disaster, the
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Iran War an utter disaster, COVID and Ukraine had also
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: been a disaster, and then on top of that, they've
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: been experiencing, many of them a horrific drought, which has
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: also cause problems. So you've really got like a perfect
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: storm of both mother nature partly caused by the climate crisis,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: and then Trump's disastrous decisions where they're just taking losses
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: a year after year after year. One of the guys
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: they interviewed is like, I long ago told my kids,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: don't do this, go do something else in the world.
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: So so yeah, I mean there it gets to the
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: point of let's say it all goes smoothly over the
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: sixty days. Seems unlikely, but let's say it all goes
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: corner and plan. At the end of sixty days, we
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: announced some deal arounds getting their sanctions of relief where
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: you know, straight hoh hormons is open, oil is flowing,
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: like things in the economy go relatively back to normal.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: There's been a lot of damage that's been done over
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: this time period, and as we've learned before, it takes
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: a while before things go back to normal. And if
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: you're someone who's living you know, hands mouth, which is
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: close to a majority of Americans, you know you're being
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: set back in this period in a way this can
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: be very difficult to recover and that you're not going
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: to forget. So I think the you know, both the
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: economic and political fallout of this is incredibly incredibly damaging.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: National price of gas today three ninety two gallon, glad
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: to see it. You know, under four dollars a gallon.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Diesel still look about five bucks a gallon. And as
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: you said, you know, the other wild card to all
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: of this is China, which remember the only reason that
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: we didn't hit a genuine crisis in the oil market
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: was because of Chinese imports. But those same analysts that
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: we were looking at who talked about that fifty percent
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: cut in overall imports from China is saying, look, at
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: a certain point, they are going to have to start
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: importing at some point. Again, they can't just continue to
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: sit there and eat up all of their own reserves.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: So when they restart at least some of their imports,
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: price pressure will stay there. They're waiting for the price
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: to come down to be able to continue, but they
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: will have to do it, you know, sometime in the
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: next month or two. And so no not even nation
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: in the world, especially one of some one point four
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: billion people can just sit around and not have any
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: oil import or a very little oil import for months
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: on end. So when it restarts, that could keep the price,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: you know, continuing high, especially with all the slack currently
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: cut out of the system. Not even to mention the
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: strategic petroleum reserve. If we have a another crisis after
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: this one, it's we're dead.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's no guarantees in the negotiation process. Let's
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: say we get sixty days down the road, thing falls apart.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: We've got sixty more days of oil traffic having been
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: interrupted and not back to ordinary times, and in the
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: spr has been dramatically, you know, drawn down, So you're
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: in a much more precarious position starting out at that.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Well, we you know, we always make this fallacy. We
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: were repointing to the current conflicts. But the lesson of
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: history is that you don't know. I mean right now,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: I mean we're going to cover this tomorrow with John Meerscheimer. Russia.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: What's happening in Russian Ukraine is out of control. It's
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: absolutely out of control. They are blowing the shit out
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: of all of these Russian oil refineries. Russia's oil production
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: is actually dropping, They're hitting all these Look, I get it.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: You know, Ukraine is a right to self defense, but
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: this is still a nuclear arm nation and all of that,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: and so will they take drastic measure that sounds like
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: a recipe for disaster in the oil market, right or
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: you never know? India, Pakistan, I mean North Korea, like
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the Straits of Malacca, Taiwan, anything could happen all over.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: That's why you have a strategic reserve. But at the
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: lowest level here from nineteen eighty three, that's why the pricarity,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: it's like them munitions. We knew it would be a problem.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: You didn't know we were going to bomb Iran, but
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: you could foresee it a mile away. And oh, that's
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: exactly what happened. Now that we've come out of this war,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: we have very, very low stockpile, so you can see it.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: The script is written here for a petroleum reserve. We
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: used it in the current crisis. We don't have. You know,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: nobody's going to want to refill it because it'll cost
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: hundreds of billions or whatever. Trump doesn't want to have
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: to eat that cost. Neither does. Congress sets the stage
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: for a potential problem in the future.