Latest / 3 Yards Per Carry - Miami Dolphins / Scouting the Fins-12-11-25

Transcript

Scouting the Fins-12-11-25 · 3 Yards Per Carry - Miami Dolphins

• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: What's up everybody?
• 0:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to another episode of Scouting Defense right here on the Three Arts Precary podcast feed, also part of the five raised in sports network.
• 0:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, who's Sampatelle, and as always, today's show is brought to you by ThomsonSugar.com.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Use promo code three yards, 20 for 20% off your order.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: of $75 or more on ThompsonSecard.com.
• 0:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: Once again, use promo code 3 yards 20 for 20% off your order of $75 or more on ThompsonSecard.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Joining me tonight is Coach Smith.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: How we doing tonight?
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, so I'm doing well.
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm off the heels of attending that jet scheme.
• 1:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: In person was obviously a lot of fun to to get there and see the dolphins get off to that quick start and kick the crap out of the jets.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's always a good time.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, interesting travel for the dolphins this week because if they had taken a direct route from the the jets to the Steelers, they'd basically pass straight through my town, but we know they, you know, they fly back to Miami and then back up north here, so.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Kind on the fences, whether I want to even try to go to the game this weekend, I've been kind of looking at the prices.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've also been kind of looking at the weather, not sure if I want to do it, but we'll see it's kind of cold a bit too cold.
• 1:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: There wasn't as cold in New York though coach because it was 41 degrees so that narrative does not necessarily count, but we are watching the narrative Monday night.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: because guess what?
• 2:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: This matchup isn't just another game.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's pretty much a referendum on who the dolphins can become.
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because ever since these dolphins shifted into a heavier person, started playing really, really good defense in the first half and pretty much, like just dominated the jets.
• 2:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: this team has transformed from finesse and speed to power and punishment.
• 2:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: And while, you know, the Pittsburgh Steelers, they carry that old school reputation of power, punishment, dominance,
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: The schematics and data tell a very different story with both the dolphins and the stealer.
• 2:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: So tonight we'll be delving into this matchup on offense and defense.
• 3:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: But first, coach, this narrative, the weather in Pittsburgh isn't going to be cold.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: You could see snow showers less than 30 degrees.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: uh quarterback to a tongue-by-law is Owen seven in games under 40 degrees, uh this is one of those games where if he balls out, if he wins, that's a shift in the narrative, right?
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, like you said that the jet's game, I mean it was chilly, but it was it's not a
• 3:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: is a cold weather game by any means.
• 3:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I need to have a jacket on that game.
• 3:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: But this game in Pittsburgh, that's going to be a much different story.
• 3:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, when you're getting down into the mid to low 20s or into the teens with a windshield, like that's a different kind of weather.
• 3:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if you're not used to playing in it, then that can be a factor.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you add in, if there is rain that compounded all that stuff,
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: But this is a big opportunity for the dolphins, not just the weather, but, you know, the other narrative as well can't play it on national television can't play, you know, the late, the late game stuff like that.
• 4:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of opportunities here, you know, maybe a little too little too late in terms of the playoff talk, right, it's still a very long shot for that.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at the
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: what they can change going forward, if they can go up and they can perform well in Pittsburgh this week, that's something that you can carry into next year.
• 4:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you can show that you can play in that that type of weather, then we're not sitting here in November, December of next year, if they do start out better next year, right?
• 4:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: We are giving a little bit of a proof of concept with it.
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: So big opportunity regardless of how the rest of the season goes,
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: big opportunity on Monday night for the dolphins to kind of set the tone for what they're capable of doing and showing that, you know, while whether it is a factor, like, I'm not going to say you're not saying that playing in the cold is not different than playing on a, you know, a 70-degree day or anything like that, but, you know, it can't be more of a factor for you than it is for the other team.
• 5:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Everybody's playing in the same elements and it's kind of come down to the team that can, you know, figure out how to perform better in those elements.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you know, let's get to it coach because this dolphin seems not the same from September and over the last month over this, you know, what was it for game winning streak?
• 5:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Mike McDaniel shifted the dolphins culturally, strategically, and schematically.
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: It looks like the team is now more bought in.
• 5:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: Even after the losing streak when they finally want to game their second or third game They're rattling off wins.
• 6:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're winning in ugly ways They're winning close games Well, you know those games should not have been close, but they're winning them Right there like the wheels are not falling off There is still some concern particularly in the second half for both the offense and the defense
• 6:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was a bit tight enough against the jet's game even though, you know, they were playing at their string quarterback.
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: The dolphins were off to a 21-old lead, but they showed.
• 6:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you can take this with the grand of salt that.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: they can hold the lead, the wheels won't fall off, and they'll be okay.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Particularly on the offense, since we'll talk about the offense right now, get an extra lineman, he get more tight ends, Darren Waller's back.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Devon Hane did get hurt in that judge game, never came back, but,
• 6:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, the running game was still going out of jail and right head over a hundred yards in how many games.
• 7:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: He was, you can say, you know, in the doghouse with Mike McDaniel this season, but when, you know, Devon H.A.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: and went down, you know, he showed out.
• 7:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, he did better than what I thought he would be doing, uh, rattle off some nice good runs.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: He utilized the vision to the best of his advantage, the offensive line.
• 7:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, had holes open up for him.
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is not necessarily a statement that the dolphins' offensive line can handle anybody, but it shows that the run game is working and that's pretty dangerous going into Pittsburgh.
• 7:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think one of the big things for me over the course of the season is that it feels like Mike McDaniel is holding the players to a higher level
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: of accountability.
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like in the past, it seemed like he would go back to the same players over and over again, no matter how much same staff like he was just always waiting for them to get over the hump.
• 8:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And maybe part of that was out in necessity.
• 8:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: But for me with Jalen Wright, kind of feels like like you said he was in the doghouse.
• 8:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: All he Gordon was kind of the hot thing behind each hand for a little bit there.
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you know, I don't I can't say it's connected
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: kind of after that fourth down run with all the Gordon where he decided to bounce it right then jail and rate gets his shot right and and jail and race been kind of sitting there being the good soldier as a third running back and then he gets his shot against the jets and absolutely shines right and I think of that the competition between all the and jail and right to
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: get those carries behind HN because HN is always going to get those carries like you said he existed that game against the jets fell on the football bruised river something like that.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: They said that he could have come back to that game so you know fully expecting to be back against the Steelers and you know right is likely going to get the first shot at the carries behind HN.
• 9:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: with Ali behind him now, you can't have a fall off in production.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that shows up in the way that he's running, right?
• 9:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: He is running very decisively.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's fighting for those extra yards.
• 9:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, I think that accountability is a big part of that, right?
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: When, if right is the only option other than HN,
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Then you don't have to do all the extra stuff.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to be, you know, in your keys and cues, but you know, when you know that if you if jail and right goes out there and fumbles the ball, then they're going to bring all the Gordon in right then it's going to it's going to have you playing with the different level of urgency.
• 9:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And like you said, I think the the offensive line, you know, still.
• 9:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: That jet steepens of lime was not good.
• 9:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Steelers are going to be a much better matchup, but they should still be able to lean on that running game in a big way versus the Steelers.
• 10:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that they will.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: The passing game will probably have to show up at some point, but I think that the run game over these past five since games, whatever it's been has shown that they're capable of being successful against almost anybody they face.
• 10:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that a lot of that has been almost a necessity.
• 10:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It felt like after Julian Hill got injured and they had to go to Dan Brunskill had to go to that six offensive linemen to fill the wide tight end rule.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was like we got we've been asking for Adam McDaniel for for years now.
• 10:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: We wanted him to come into the run game and it was like he didn't have a choice at that point and now we're seeing how well that's that's going and there is still a fear that might be
• 10:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: stick to that.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: But one thing that did encourage me from that, was that against the jets, those first or drives there are very run heavy scored three quick touchdowns, and then felt like they kind of went away from it a little bit.
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And when they kicked a field goal to make it 14 points, the Dolphins turned around and ran the ball eight out of nine plays on that next drive.
• 11:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was like, yes, like, where has that been?
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: That, you know, we didn't just completely go away from the run game when it was working, maybe we drifted a little bit away
• 11:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: but when it was time to push the chips in, they just started hitting the ball off and we were able to close that game out.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got a feeling they were trying to get the past game go and try to put out some feelers, maybe try to get ready for the Steelers.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: And let's keep it real.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: But the X factor for the Dolphins is this offensive line and then running back specifically, Devon H. Angel and Wright, and Ali Gordon, you know, over the last three games Devon H. You know, first and almost every major metric full almost 450 rushing yards.
• 11:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: almost seven yards per carry 21 first down runs, 14 explosive runs, second best rush success on early downs.
• 12:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's almost 50% on first and second down that he's converting the yardage that is needed.
• 12:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: While Devon Hain, you know, is the lightning
• 12:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Jalen Ryan, Ollie Gordon are the thunder.
• 12:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: We'll touch on Jalen right a little bit more.
• 12:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: His burst through the gap, especially up against the jets, especially in wide zone and duo, it gives Miami to home run threats, man.
• 12:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like you spell Otaing, you put Jalen right in there.
• 12:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you're able to get the same type of efficiency in the more so in the run game than the past game, I mean, it's almost similar type of skill set, but Devon H is a bit more elusive and much more faster than Jalen, right?
• 12:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: All he scored and obviously he can be the big back, the bruiser on those short yardage carriages, while he can catch out of the backfield.
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: And look, the Steelers have to answer to this.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: They need to be able to stop the run if they have any chance of winning.
• 13:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the sealer's defense collapses up against 12 personnel against two tight ends.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or even if you have a full back leg day in New Brunswick or Alec Ingle as the attached weapon.
• 13:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because this right here, if the dolphins run out of 12 personnel and they are efficient, this match of could decide the entire game.
• 13:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Steelers defense is the worst defense in the NFL against 12 personnel rushing attacks.
• 13:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: They rank 30 second in Russian EPA or loud.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: They rank 30th in rush success allowed almost 46% of yardage conversions.
• 13:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's not a small weakness, guys.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is actually a fatal flaw in crucial early down success.
• 13:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we know
• 13:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Miami Dolphins is a front running team.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: If they are able to get that early down success, they are going to make you pay.
• 13:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: They could score a quick in the run and passing game and could get out to a surmountable lead, a 14-0 lead, 14-7-21-21-0 or 21-7 lead.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that leads the Dolphins to success right there.
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: And guess what formation Miami has leaned on since retooling the offense?
• 14:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have one of the top five snaps in 12 personnel are fishing in the running and passing game.
• 14:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Six double jump boasts that's 22 and 23 personnel.
• 14:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it gets even worse for Pittsburgh on late downs in 12 personnel.
• 14:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are worst in the league in EPA allowed and worst in the league in success rate allowed.
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you get all you Gordon in there, Jaylon right in their Devon H and in there, you get Dan Brunskill, you get two tight ends in there.
• 14:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Steelers defense melts on late downs.
• 14:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: It could be game over for for the Steelers especially on defense.
• 14:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and like you said, that plays exactly into what the dolphins have been doing well.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: We look at those personnel packages and whether it's the 12-personile packs where we take the full back out and you put another tight end or whether it's 22, where you have a full back and the second tight end, right?
• 15:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: There hasn't really been since Tyreech has gone out.
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That second-wide receiver that's really stepped up to say that you always have to have two wide receivers on the field.
• 15:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Darren Waller has been a player that's flashed earlier in the season and Mike McDaniel was talking this week about how teams are essentially, you know, trying to take Darren Waller out of the game.
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why he's not seeing his targets right now.
• 15:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you have Dolcech who is starting to emerge as a good.
• 15:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: F tight end option, right?
• 15:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're in, of course, Dan Brunskill, right?
• 15:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Being that, you know, why tight end the the six offensive linemen that that counts towards your, your 12 and 22 personnel packages.
• 15:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if those type of guys are the ones that are excelling again, let me talk about earlier, the the competition, the accountability, right?
• 16:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're, if you're doing well in those packages, then they, those can tend to be expanded, right?
• 16:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're telling me that we're going to go out there and the idea is that we are going to run the ball and you want to go out there in a, you know, a 12 personnel package where, you know, maybe the, the Steelers don't go as heavy with their package, right, because you have, you have wall or you have dulls such out there, you can't just stack the box where you're, you know, leaving yourself exposed.
• 16:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: With that right then you're going to be able to run against a later box and you know, if they're, if they're going to bring that extra defensive back on the field, right, while they're indulgent or not.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Top end blockers in the run game, but if you're going against a lighter a lighter secondary or you know, lighter defense, they can handle line backers and.
• 16:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: slot corners, a safety walk up, they can handle those type of guys.
• 17:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's still even though the dolphins could be in a lighter package, you know, theoretically, the counter that you get from the defense on that still gives the favor to the dolphins' offensive terms of their ability to run the ball even with those non-blocking tight ends in there.
• 17:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then of course, you've got
• 17:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: It just really plays well into what the dolphins have been doing well, wait, wait.
• 17:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it will also help out in the passing game too because I was taking a look at the metrics just overall for the run end pass and 12 personnel.
• 17:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are second in terms of EPA out of 12 personnel and run in pass.
• 17:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: but in success rate, they're third worst.
• 17:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: So that package is not more so for efficiency and take the ball down by down and moving the sticks.
• 18:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's more so for explosives.
• 18:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if they're able to make the Steelers pay for explosives in the passing game, especially if they throw,
• 18:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: middle of the field when they don't have a secondary or a lineback covering the middle of the field, they can make them pay.
• 18:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I'll give you the data on this.
• 18:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: If the middle of the field is open, the Steelers are middle of the pack in terms of defensive EPA per play.
• 18:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have almost a 51% conversion rate to get for offenses to get the yards needed.
• 18:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: If quarterbacks are able to throw to the middle of the field or on intermediate throws.
• 18:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: which leads me to believe they could focus more so on the outside edges because the dolphins like to run outside zone.
• 18:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if you get heavy and we saw it on the plays up against the jets last week, if you get Dan Brunskel in there with Waller and Dolce Chen,
• 19:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: a funky looking formation.
• 19:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: You could have a crack toss that turns into a sweet play to jail in water or dare in water.
• 19:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: You could actually run a crack toss or you could run just a simple wide zone outside zone run to the B or C gap and use that as a play action pass, a shot play over to jail in water.
• 19:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: or Darren Waller or a flat route to Greg Dolcech and Ganyard's through there just drive down the field and maybe potentially score a touchdown.
• 19:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: If they see the middle of the field open, two of needs to make sure that he throws it and doesn't get baited into it too, so they need to be able to give two of some time to be able to complete those passes because if the middle of the field is closed,
• 19:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: The stealer's defense is actually the second best defense in the NFL in terms of EPA not giving up and success rate and yardage.
• 20:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: So when they close the middle of the field, which I think they will do, because that's what this Dolphins passing attack is based on, they're going to be neat.
• 20:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have to be able to run the ball early on first and second now to open up that passing game map.
• 20:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, that's always
• 20:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, you want to be able to run the ball or you want to be able to stay in a manageable second and third down and that is because you want to be able to open up those options to be able to, you know, if you're in third and long consistently, then you're going to have to throw the ball you become predictable, you exposed stuff the offensive line is not good at because as good as this offensive line is at run blocking there are still
• 20:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: concerns with their ability to, you know, the, the true past sets, the ability to protect the quarterback.
• 20:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you are not successful in those early downs, then you put that off of the line in that, those situations and, you know, Patrick Paul, no questions at all.
• 21:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I am Brewer, no questions at all.
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the other three guys, you know, as much as Jonah's been improving, there are still some concerns in his past protection,
• 21:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Austin Jackson, that's been a career long thing for him.
• 21:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: He needs to be protected.
• 21:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they need to get into those second and third in manageable where they can draw those line backers up with that run action.
• 21:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that opens up the middle of the field, whether you're hitting a tight end on a seam, or whether it's the dig routes from water, right?
• 21:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Or even those Texas type routes from Devon H.
• 21:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: to attack with timing over the middle is going to be a good thing for the dolphins this week.
• 21:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and they need to make sure they will get the ball out quick because this Steelers defense likes to blitz.
• 21:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: They blitz the seventh most in the NFL almost 36% of their snaps.
• 22:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: And their pressure EPA, they are the third best defense with a negative 0.62 pressure EPA.
• 22:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we know in true assets this dolphins offensive line gives a pressure a lot.
• 22:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are not good at defending that pressure, they're below average, and they give up the night the most pressures when the blitz.
• 22:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: is coming their way.
• 22:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if they do try to pass the ball early on, they better get the ball out quick and they better be successful because if not, the entire game script will be switched and the dolphins will have to be chasing the Steelers.
• 22:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, no from this season, the dolphins are not a team that is able to chase properly and be successful.
• 22:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, with that, we will head to break and talk about the Dolphins offense and the Dolphins defense and the Steelers offense will first a word from our sponsor today and it's only offense guys.
• 23:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: go ahead and check out only fence it's discord on discord discord.gg slash only fence do it on a desktop or a laptop so that way you avoid the apple upcharge on your iPhone it's $2.99 just to read $4.99
• 23:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: for all access patron for a month.
• 23:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: And there's a little bit more for all exclusive work, Coach and I give a little bit of news, schematics, info, and even advanced data we don't share on the podcast for our subscribers to take a look at and enjoy it.
• 23:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: So go ahead and sign up for only Finns,
• 23:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: $2.99 just to read it in 4.99 all access for a month pretty cheap if you ask me.
• 24:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, and we're back.
• 24:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Coach, this dolphin's defense was absolutely dominant against the jets, right?
• 24:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: They did not fall into the second half trap where they let the game's doors go completely wide open.
• 24:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm kind of worried when they play this Steelers offense because this Steelers offense also likes to play in 12 personnel.
• 24:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: They also play in 21 personnel a lot.
• 24:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have three really good tight ends with Darnell Washington and John Oostmith.
• 24:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Their offensive line is superb and fantastic.
• 24:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Aaron Rogers is always able to get the ball up quick.
• 24:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: He throws short almost 75% of the time which is the most in the league and we know the dolphin struggle up against tight ends.
• 24:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it was nice to see similar to the one we talked about the offensive.
• 25:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was nice to see the dolphins playing the brand of football that we talked about off of the off season, right?
• 25:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: fronts out there early.
• 25:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: You stop the run and you put them into predictable late-down situations.
• 25:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: The defense against the jets, when we look at some of the other games like the Browns game, the Saints game, the Washington game, you know, I felt like the Dolphins got ahead early and then let teams back into it and that didn't happen this week.
• 25:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even though
• 25:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I kind of view this one as a shut out for the defense because seven of the points were on a punt return touchdown and then the other three points were on a fake punt where the where the jets got a field goal after that.
• 25:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I thought it was a big win for the defense just to keep that into a field goal because that can be tough.
• 26:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: When you get your stop, you get your kicker turn team out there and then you give up a fake punt and then the defense is like, you know,
• 26:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we gotta do this again.
• 26:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I thought they did a really good job this week overall.
• 26:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like you said as far as the Steelers and the short passing.
• 26:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the Steelers are going to run the ball very well against the Dolphins, especially in early downs.
• 26:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: But Aaron Rogers is obviously capable of making plays at any point and they're going to probably try to hit that quick game.
• 26:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you can say the same thing about,
• 26:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: both quarterbacks.
• 26:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: And probably any quarterback across the NFL in the sense that, you know, if you can get to them and you can hit them early, it's going to have lasting effects throughout the game.
• 26:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's kind of the same with with Aaron Rodgers that if you can get to him early, you can hit him, right?
• 26:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: He is an older quarterback, right?
• 26:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, he's he's not,
• 27:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think you hit him early, he's not going to keep sitting back there and holding the ball.
• 27:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like he's going to just try to get the ball out of there, try to not take the hits.
• 27:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's important to make him get to his second and third reads early, limit the quick pass game.
• 27:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, they've gone to, I think kind of game will have been getting a lot of action lately for them and they've kind of been using those screens and those swing passes as an extension of the run game.
• 27:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, you're going to get easy completions that way, but you have to be able to rally up and make those tackles because even if you complete a short pass on on first down, if you can rally, you know, team defense, you know, group tackling and limit that to two three yards, then you can still set yourself up into good positions where Anthony weaver can dial up some stuff on third down.
• 27:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, the name of the game is early down past rush success for the dolphin, especially with Bradley Chub, Chub Robinson, Zack Seeler, who primarily pay on first on end Matthew June on as well.
• 28:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Matthew June on has been silent this year and he's getting more snaps over Chub Robinson.
• 28:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like Chub Robinson should get it more.
• 28:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: We talked about this pastros man.
• 28:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're not able to get pressure with four and the thing is This dealer's offense at length does not give a pressure that much only 22% of pressures, which is best in the league At this point I it's gonna be hard especially on early downs not look
• 28:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: They might have to dial up some crazy wacky blitzes early on if they really want to get Aaron Rodgers rattled and Aaron Rodgers doesn't get rattled that easily even in the games I've seen this season, even though he's 40 years old.
• 28:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: of age.
• 28:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's got that old age wisdom where he's able to take those dumb bobs.
• 28:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's able to throw it to the flesh, to his tight hands.
• 29:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: He can have an outlet pass in jail and mourn or can't gain well or some genre of smith or something short over to Calvin Austin.
• 29:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like it doesn't matter.
• 29:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: you need to be able to get pressure with four.
• 29:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have to get pressure with five.
• 29:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have to be able to get him out of the pocket and make him scramble a little bit so that way he can't find anybody.
• 29:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I just don't see it where this dolphin's defensive line could get him rattled early on.
• 29:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like if they can't do it, he's going to be throwing the ball all over the place and it's going to be
• 29:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: long sustained drives, like even if they tackle, we've seen this Dolphins defense on third down and they've been really bad on third down especially in the second half.
• 29:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: If it's death by paper cuts for the Dolphins defense, it's going to be a very long game and the Dolphins offense will have to respond because if this Dolphins team has to chase and play
• 30:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't disagree with that.
• 30:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I felt it not to get into a two a conversation, but you know, two a has not felt like the quarterback that he has been in the past.
• 30:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if we get into a situation where again, you combine that with the offensive line, combine that with the lack of a number two-wide receiver stepping up.
• 30:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you get into a position where you have to play catch up, where you feel, where Mike McDaniel feels like he has to go to a pass heavy attack, that's not good.
• 30:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Not gonna end up well for the dolphins, right?
• 30:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: This has to be a game that they either get out to an early lead and are able to use the running game, or they can at least keep it close, right?
• 30:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Falling behind by one score is not a big deal, but if you get behind by two, three scores, and you're playing catchup, that's when things can snowball, and then we continue to hear the narratives about the cold weather and all that stuff.
• 31:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: get out to a quick start.
• 31:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like the Dalvin's have done that quite a few times this year, sometimes they've let teams get back into it and make it a little more interesting at the end than they should.
• 31:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: But it's been like, can they sustain?
• 31:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can they sustain those quick starts?
• 31:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can they continue to score?
• 31:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I think that was the fear of a lot of people up against the judge.
• 31:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're up 21, 0, then they could have to score up until the third quarter on a field goal, right?
• 31:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: They were, and so my thoughts on that and I think that you talked about a little bit earlier was Mike trying to to find out what he can do in the passing game right once you're up 21 to nothing like what do you You know, yes, it would be nice to see them just continue to run the rock the entire game and go up by 28 by 42 and just keep running the score up right but at some point you got to be like okay We're up by three scores
• 31:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it's time to see if we can do something else because we're not always going to be able to just run the rock and control the game.
• 32:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you got it and that's I felt that Mike did a good job against the jets of doing that of getting up by 21 and then starting to experiment a little bit and I didn't go well, I mean they didn't I don't feel through the ball particularly well even up 21 nothing.
• 32:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: But then when it closed down to 14 points right there was the the punt return touchdown and then the field goal the field goal closed it to 24 to 10 made it a two touchdown game with like 12 minutes left and then Mike's like okay you know time to stop screen around the passing game were we're going to run the ball so I do feel like they did a good job in this game of getting out to that quick lead kind of playing around a little bit to see what else you could do.
• 32:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: and then getting back to what work.
• 32:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't expect the same thing as the Steelers, I don't expect to get out to a three-score lead and to be able to mess around, but I do have a little more confidence than I did before that they can get out to that lead and do the right kind of things to sustain the lead.
• 33:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I don't share that same confidence that you do it.
• 33:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: And here's where I disagree.
• 33:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Even when I've seen the dolphins be up by a field gold or a one score touchdown.
• 33:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: they always still have miscues that happen that good teams don't do when they have to sustain that lead or just wear out a team earlier or I'm sorry later on in the game specifically in the passing game because when you're down seven you when you're up by seven you want to continue to build on that lead.
• 33:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this is going to turn into a Tua and the passing game conversation.
• 33:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: We haven't seen something in a true drop-back pass set where Tua is able to work the field and rattle off passes in a rhythmic fashion to water, water, milk,
• 34:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dullsage and really take the game on his back, even up by one score.
• 34:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's always some type of viscule where a pass is sealed and I like on first or second down and then it's second and long third and long.
• 34:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: They can't get the run game going or the defense has caught onto the pattern and it's a three now.
• 34:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, your defense is back on the field.
• 34:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: How much more can the defense play a perfect?
• 34:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Right, the other thing is, we're seeing a lot of fall starts and penalties also happen when they're up leading to the drive and be stalled, even when they're up by seven or three or even when the game is tied like at that point for the dolphins for two of her mic and the offense.
• 34:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: It always becomes backbreaking no matter what, whether if it's, you know, a hold from Jonas of Inaia, whether if it's an illegal formation from one of the offensive linemen, a presnap issue with one of the tight ends or two of sales a pass or he misses the pass by and ensure it's intercepted with the way he's been throwing these picks.
• 35:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't have that confidence.
• 35:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: with this Dolphins offense, even if they're up by one, which leads me to be a bit wary where I don't think they can hang around in this game and win an ugly one, because this Steelers team has talent.
• 35:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you have guys on that Steelers team, like Jonu Smith, like Jalen Ramsey, to Sean Elliott, who is gonna be on the sideline because he's out with IR, along with, you know,
• 35:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: the terrible towels out in the field Monday night, primetime in the coal like this is everything that the dolphins have failed at.
• 35:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they still haven't showed it in other places throughout the season.
• 36:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think they'll show it Monday night.
• 36:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: No, and I don't wanna paint a picture of being two extreme was what I was saying there.
• 36:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This Dolphins team is not a very good, great team, right?
• 36:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a average of good team right now.
• 36:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're doing, they're back to doing the stuff that they were doing in previous years, under a weekday, and where they are beating the bad teams away if they should, right?
• 36:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we've talked about the cold weather narratives, the prime time narratives, right?
• 36:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, you know, you also have being able to beat teams that are as good or better.
• 36:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think the Steelers or are that great of a team you there's seven and six right now, they could easily be six and seven with us, you know, if they count that.
• 36:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, if they if the Ravens would have got credit for that touchdown that game, right.
• 37:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, this isn't a juggernaut in the Steelers and I do think that the dolphins are very capable of.
• 37:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: making that critical mistake to lose the game.
• 37:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the Steelers are capable of the same thing as well.
• 37:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I do think it's going to be a close game.
• 37:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not is pessimistic about the team losing in a close game just because they can't close it out because I think the Steelers are just as capable of
• 37:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: As the dolphins are only these are two very middle of the road teams and probably with both of them if you put them up against one of those top teams that don't make those statements.
• 37:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, they're probably getting run out of the stadium at this point, but you know, seeing these two teams play together, I could see, you know, basically a coin flip if we get into a one score game is the which team can avoid that critical mistake.
• 38:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, do you think Daniel Brunskill will finally get a reception.
• 38:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I sure hope so he's been out there that they've got him running go routes during during pregame warmups like you got to throw the big guy the ball at some point and what better time Why not do it in television Right, yeah, given you ready to have him
• 38:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Have them leak out there, Ray.
• 38:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're all haunted by that vision of jumbo Elliott from years ago doing it.
• 38:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right, let's give the dolphins a, that type of memory of a big man touchdown.
• 38:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't found so much there.
• 38:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the final touchdown of the game, the game when he came right to Daniel Runskill.
• 38:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think everyone, I think you wouldn't be going absolutely wrong at that.
• 38:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, fun prediction time.
• 38:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got the Steelers at 24 and the Dolphins at 17.
• 38:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think the Steelers closed this game now.
• 39:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so, I mean, it is optimistic as I have been throughout the show.
• 39:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Dolphins still got a show at it, right?
• 39:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Dolphins still have to show that they can win in that cold weather, the Dolphins still have to show that they can win on the road in prime time.
• 39:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm gonna go in a lower scoring affair,
• 39:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say 1713 Pittsburgh.
• 39:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
• 39:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 39:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: You had a different mood for the show, but we both had the same outcome here.
• 39:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we'll see Monday night what happens will both be on.
• 39:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'll be on for the post game show.
• 39:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: I hope coach will be on for the post game show.
• 39:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I was going to be a little bit late in Eric.
• 39:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully you recovers from that migraine should be on as we'll stick with this year on scouting defense will be here on the post game show part of threats carry podcasts now we're all part of five reasons sports network as always you'll go