Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | New Starters, New Teams | MLB & WNBA | 8/5/26

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Wednesday BEST BETS | New Starters, New Teams | MLB & WNBA | 8/5/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chips, the black coffee on
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess. Three teen poulette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head. Now you stare at the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: chips like they made you this man. But don't you
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on nothing nice not now hold on,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: let me pull, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports. Hopefully I got this count right on the
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: ticker here. It is Wednesday, August fifth, from a two
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: and one on the show yesterday. Obviously the White Sox
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: had no chance. The Red Sox put up six in
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the first inning, and that was obviously the end of that.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: You knew Red Sox bullp them is not gonna blow that.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Ah yeah, Martin did not have it in that game.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox. They're on fire right now. What else
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I say? We did win with the under in Pittsburgh
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: and Milwaukee, which it landed six I think four to two.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: There were no runs scored. Later in that game, it
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: was a four to two game. I think in the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: fifth or sixth inning, the first five under actually lost.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Uh So maybe there is something to just never playing
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: first five unders, man, I don't know. But the Bullpens
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: did well in that one and finished the game off.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Of course, it was Milwaukee using the better of their
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: relievers because they had the lead. But it was a
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: close game. And Milwaukee they're not good against Pittsburgh, by
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the way. They got the win yesterday, but they've been
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: bad against Pittsburgh. I think there were five and I
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: think they were one in five this year against Pittsburgh
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: before that game yesterday, and then we did win. With
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: the WNBA play with Toronto, I mean, I don't think
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: they were ever not covering in the game. They lost
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: by eleven I think, or maybe ten. It they weren't
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: gonna fail to cover that. It looked for a while
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: like they might be able to even win the game
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: out right though, Like they were winning the game by
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: eight somewhere around halftime, and I'm like, oh, Toronto might
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: actually be able to do this. They really kind of
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: fell apart though, and it got a little bit questionable
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: near the end. I think the final score might have
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: been the most that they were losing by and I
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: wasn't totally paying attention to it. But we got the win,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: so I don't care. Yeah, whatever they covered, that's a win.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Two and one day, Kyle up. Thanks for hanging out.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to today. We have afternoon
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: baseball going on today. We have some series that are ending,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: we have a bunch of pitchers pitching for their new
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: teams again, and we got some night baseball, and all
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: my plays are gonna actually be in the evening slate.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: It's all baseball for me today. I have a lot
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: of games that I kind of like, and I had
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to try to narrow it down to what I think
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: of the three best plays here. So that's what I'm
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: gonna have. Three baseball plays. I'm skipping WNBA, although I
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: was close to having one WNBA play as well. It's
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: very similar to yesterday's play. Let's take a look man.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Toronto and Houston is the first game up here. This
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: one almost made the cut for me. I think we
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: do have a pitching mismatch in this game. It's just
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I don't love the price and I don't know if
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I really want to fade a pitcher who's pitching for
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: his new team, but this might be a situation where
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: maybe you do want to do that. Houston got back
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: on track with the win yesterday. They've been hot, They've
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: won a lot of resa games. They've won six of
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: their last seven. They dropped the first game of this series,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: but got back on track with the win yesterday, which
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: is not really that surprising. Toronto kind of just playing
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: out the stretch now after they sold to the trade deadline.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Houston is trying to win their division here, So the
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: motivation definitely lies with Houston here coming out of the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: trade deadline. As I say, like shortly after the trade deadline,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I think you want to look to fade teams that
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: sold off of the trade deadline. They might start playing
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: better again, you know, a week or two later, but
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: right after the trade deadline it kind of hits hard.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So I think you do kind of want to fade
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: those teams while looking towards teams that actually have something
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: to play for, but you will have to pay a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: price for it, which you do here with Houston. Houston
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: may actually even have a bullpen edge here. They only
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: used two guys yesterday, Toronto used four. Houston's bullpen's been
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: pretty good recently. They're number eleven right now, Toronto's sixteen.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Although Toronto has the better era, but I think it's
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: at least pretty close in the bullpen's here. Houston definitely
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: is better offensively, there's six. Toronto is dead last, well
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: tied right now with Cleveland at twenty ninth. Jameson tie on,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: we'll be making his Toronto debut here. So, as I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: alluded to, we have some pitchers that are starting for
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: their new teams today. Now that's gonna be the question.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Is he going to be excited? Right? Because he's going
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: from a contending team, the Cobbs, they got rid of him.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: The Blue Jays picked him up. How excited is he
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: going to be to pitch for the Blue Jays. I
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: really don't know, man. I mean, he's he's got a
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: French sounding names, so maybe he'll like being in Canada.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I have no idea other than that. I don't know
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: if he's gonna be that excited, you know what I mean.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But sometimes you do go out there and you want
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: to pitch well and prove yourself for your new team
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: he's struggled this year. He's had some injuries, and I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: think if you look at his career, he's better than
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: what his numbers look like this year. Like his career
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: numbers are definitely better than this, so he's obviously capable
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: of pitching better than this. He hasn't pitched that much
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: this year. Well, he actually he's made more starts than
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I thought fifteen, So he wasn't really doing well here
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: for the Cobs five point nine two ERA, one point
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: three to six whip. He was really bad on the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: road seven point two to three road. Era was really
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: struggling in his last couple of starts before the Cubs
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: got rid of him. Didn't do well there against Detroit
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh. And his numbers are also bad against Houston
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: an eighty eight career at bats three forty one average,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: nine sixty five ops, thirteen to three strikeout walk ratios.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: So the positive is that maybe he'll try to pitch
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: well for his new team, But there are a lot
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: of negatives here. His new team is not a good team.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: He's bad on the road, He's been bad this year.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: He has bad numbers against Houston, and he's going up
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: against Hunter Brown, Houston Brown, what Hunter Brown, who is
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the younger pitcher with the way higher ceiling here three
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: point four to two era. Brown has kind of struggled
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: with the walks this year, though he's got a one
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: point two to nine whip. He's trying to bounce back
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: from injury. He's been good though the last couple of years,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: so I think he is very capable of pitching well,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: and he is doing better recently. He's been kind of
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: bad at home though four point one point one Homie
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I railed those opponent batting everage is good either way,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: but the walks have been a huge issue for him,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: especially at home. However, his last two starts both looked
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He shut out the White Sox on the road,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: didn't walk anybody in that one in seven innings and
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: barely put in anybody on base, only allowed two hits,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, and then he followed that up with a
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: decent start against Texas here at home after that. So
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: he looks like he is in better form right now.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I would say three of his last four starts have
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: been good. He's got a low hit rate here, his
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: walk rate those way too high right now, and his
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: strike up rate is also high, so he does still
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: have his strikeout capabilities. So I don't think the injuries
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: are really like lingering or anything like that. It's just
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason, he was just out of control for
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: a bit. But he looks like he's coming back into
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: form here. He's been really good against Toronto in his
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: history's sixty eight at bats, nineteen to six strikeout walk
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: ratio is okay, one ninety one average, A lot is
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: really low. Five eighty ops also really low. And looking
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: at tie On just real quickly. As far as his
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: overall numbers here, He's allowed one hit per inning, which
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: is very mediocre. He's a lot a ton of home runs.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: He's very home run conducive, which is not good. His
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: walk rate is mediocre. I got rate is okay. Not
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: really a lot to like with tie On. Really, as
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: far as what the numbers look like, Brown is clearly
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher. So if you couldn't tell, I like
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Houston in this game, the problem is they're pretty public
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: and you gotta lay a huge price. They open at
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty, but I think that was probably before
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto had decided on a starter. Now that it's tie On,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Houston's or maybe Houston hadn't decided on a starter. I
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: don't know. Houston's all the way up to minus one
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: eighty here. I don't know if there's a great way
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: to try to attack this thing. The total is not
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: really that high at eight. Money is coming in on
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the over though, eighty four percent of tickets eighty six
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Houston, so the money slightly
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: maybe indicating on Houston, but I worry that they're very
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: public and the price is just really high. But I
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: like Houston. I still think maybe the better way to
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: play this game is to just lay like a minus
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: one run line with Houston, or find some way to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: do it that way. You'll need them to win by
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a margin. Make your own minus
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: one run liner. I don't know what the price would
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: be on the minus one and a half, and I know,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: oh god, it's minus one and a half. With the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: home team, they might not bat in the ninth inning,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah whatever, But I think that might be the approach
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: in this game. I would not try to play Toronto here.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Possibly Houston over their team total. Might make sense to
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: just go with Houston to score against tie On because
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: he has not been good against them. That is an
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: option if you think that the over and that the
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Houston side both makes sense, it kind of makes sense.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Houston over their team total. You need him to probably score.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I would guess you need him to score at least
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: five though. If you do that, maybe six. Definitely possible
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: that they do that though, But yeah, I think probably
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: my preferred approach is to lay a minus one run
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: line with Houston and take whatever price that is. But
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. But that was close to
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: being on my card. If it was a lower price,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: it probably would be on my card. Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Cubs are on the version of sweeping the Dodgers, I think,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: which is insane. And I don't think they're gonna look
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: ahead either because they play Toronto, so probably not really
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: look ahead to Toronto. This game's on MLB Network. The
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Cubs spoiled Schooble's debut for the Dodgers yesterday. Dodgers just
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: couldn't even score yesterday. I don't I don't know what
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: that was about. That was what a sad pitched for
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, and I guess he did well. Again, that's
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. TJS what's ob they thanks for checking
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: out the show, Thanks for hanging out.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know how Asad was able to outpitch Schoobley yesterday,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: but that is what happened. You gotta think the Dodgers
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: are probably gonna be in some sort of bounce back
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: mode here, although the Dodgers might kind of be coasting
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: here because they're way ahead in their divisions, So like,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: what else do they really have to do here? They're
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: going to make the playoffs like pretty much regardless of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: what happens here, and they will have a home series
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to begin with. Maybe they still got to make they
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: got to make sure they get home throughout home home
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: advantage throughout the playoffs though, and Milwaukee is uh is
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: making that a little bit of a question for them.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers used three relief pitchers yesterday. The Cubs used three
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: as well, or four excuse me, Ferguson only for two pitches.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Though it doesn't show in blue, so that graphic or
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: that table, I mean, doesn't really make it obvious. The
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Dodgers their bullpen's been struggling a little bit recently. They're
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: at tenth here, Cubs are thirteenth. They're both capable bullpens,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: though I would say so. I don't think either bullpen
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is bad. Both offenses are good. The Dodgers are number one,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the Cubs are number three. Eric Lauer is pitching for
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Very interesting case with him because he sucked
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: ass when he was on Toronto this year, although he
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: was good last year. He goes to the Dodgers and
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: he completely turns it around. And the Dodgers have won
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: all nine of his starts that he's made with them,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: even though he's probably not even gonna stick in the rotation,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: like once some of their injured pitchers come back, he's
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: gonna be out of the rotation. He's got a four
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: point five ERA one point one to nine whip. He's
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: actually been fine on the road four point three ROADIRA,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: and again, like I said, he's been a completely different
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: pitcher since going to the Dodgers. It might just be
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: all about motivation, man, Like you're on a contending team now, yeah,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Like you might just be motivated for that reason. And
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: they've won every one of his starts, like I said,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: and he's allowed three or fewer runs in all of
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: them too, so it's not like he's sucking and getting
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: a bunch of run support. That's not really the case here.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: He's actually pitching better. Is he really that good? Probably not,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: but he is pitching better with the Dodgers. He's got
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: a pretty low hit rate here. He still lots too
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: many home runs. His walk rate is okay. His strike
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: up rate is definitely low though, so he doesn't really
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: strike anybody out. Numbers against the Cubs or mediocre here
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: in sixty eight at bats to sixty five average, seven
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: eighty three ops is a bit on the higher side
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: eighteen to eight strikeout walk ratio. I don't really want
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: to try to come in and back Louur here. I
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: know Dodgers are coming in trying to avoid a sweep.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And when you get a good team trying to avoid
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a sweet peer and the Dodgers are an underdog in
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: this game, you know you kind of want to look
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: that way in general. But I don't think they have
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher here. I think the better starter
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: is showed to I Monaga, who's pitching for the Cubs again.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: People were saying that he was done. Oh he's been
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: figured out now, he's been in the league for a
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: couple of years. I'm like no like. His peripherals all
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: look pretty good. I think he was just getting kind
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: of unlucky, allowing too many home runs, and he's completely
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: turned it around, of course, because he is a pretty
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: good pitcher. He's looked good recently. He's got his ERA
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: down to three point sixty seven, one point oh seven
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: whip is really good. He is slightly worse at home
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: three point nine to four homy ra, but again, he's
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: been good for basically the last month or so. He's
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: had one kind of questionable start in there against Saint Louis,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: which was at home. All the rest of these starts
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: recently have been good. He was good the last couple
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of times against Pittsburgh and the Yankees, which is not
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: easy to do. Lost the game against the Yankees because
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: he literally got zero run support in that game. I
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Moonaga's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, strike
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: out rate is reasonable, so his numbers don't look bad here.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Against the Dodgers, he's okay. He's held them to go
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: two forty four average, but they do have an eight
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: h six OPS against them, so they do have some
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: power hitting against them, and it's mostly Tommy Edman who
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: has three of the five home runs against them, so
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: if he's able to pitch around him, he might be
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: able to get through this lineup. They have seventy eight
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: at bats against him. Seventeen to seven strike out walk
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: ratio is not a really good ratio, though, what do
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: we do with this game? It could be an over man.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: The total is kind of high for an Emanaga game.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: The totals at nine and a half, which kind of
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: indicates to me that there's win blowing out again in Wriggling.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: So I think that is kind of the case here.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: The money is sort of backing the under, but eighty
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash, it
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: almost looks like the under is a little bit public here.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Both pitchers don't really match up that well against these offenses,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: so these offense might be able to break out and
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: do something in this game. Well, they don't need to
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: break out because they did both put up runs two
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: days ago, so whatever. But yeah, I think the over
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: might make the most sense in that game. I don't
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: really want to come in and do it. I mean,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: it's highly unlike him and to really come in and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: playing over and an Emanaga game unless he has some
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: really bad numbers against the opponent. The money is backing
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers fifty two tickets, sixty eight percent of the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I mean, you're getting him as an underdog. So,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: like I said, it's it's really rare that you get
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers as an underdog, and they should be motivated
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: at least to try to avoid the sweep. And they
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: haven't lost yet with laur on the mound. But I
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: don't think he's the better pitcher in that matchup. So
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to come in and do that,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: but maybe I guess it might be worth considering. I
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, That's not a game I'm really interested
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: in at all as far as betting it. San Francisco
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: and Texas. We did go to win with San Francisco
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: in the first game of the series. I was correct. Yesterday,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Texas was able to bounce back and they were able
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to break their losing They lost six games in a row,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and they won yesterday in the second game back home,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: barely behind Mackenzie Gore. I told you, I just didn't
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: like the price. I thought Texas would win, but the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: price was bad. It was way too high. They did
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: win only by one though, so if you laid the
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: run line, you didn't win on that then won behind
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Gore by one run yesterday. But I think that's good
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: for Texas because it breaks the losing streaks, so they
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: might have some new momentum moving forward here. They're gonna
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: be on ESPN unlimited in this one. These two bullpens
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: have really been disappointing this year. They were both way
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: better last year. Texas used four guys out of the
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday. San Francisco sold at the trade deadline, so
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: their bullpen might get a bit worse. They used four
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: guys as well. Texas may have the bullpen edge at
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: this point, but they're twentieth right now out of the bullpen,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: which is not good. The Giants are twenty fourth. They
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: both have the ras that are in the low to
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: mid fours. I don't really want to deal with either
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: bullpen here man as far as wanting to really trust
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: either of them. San Francisco's thirteenth offensively, but I still
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: think overrated offensively. Texas is seventeenth. I think they might
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: be overrated offensively as well, based on those I know
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: those are stats. The stats don't lie, really, but they
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: can kind of lie. Just like if San Francisco has
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: a couple of games of course field where they put
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: up twenty runs, you know what I mean, it's gonna
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: skew their offensive numbers quite a bit. Even though we're
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: late into the season. Now, San Francisco has got Carson
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: wizen Hunt making the start here. He has not really
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: been effective. He started his major league career last year
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: wasn't particularly good. This year he hasn't been good either.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: A six point six y three RA one point seven
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: to four whip. He's been really bad on the road
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: eight point sixty four road era, and I know Texas
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: is a pitcher friendly ballpark, but he's been really bad
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. Three to sixty one upon a batting
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: average is terrible. It's a small sample size, so you
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: got to take that into account. He's only made two
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: roads starts two home starts, but he hasn't really been
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: good in any of the He's given up more than
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: one hit per inning. His walk rate is really high,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: more than one every two winnings, which is really bad.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Strikeout rate is okay, but I don't think there's a
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: lot to like about wizen Hunt other than the fact
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: that he is unfamiliar to Texas, so maybe that would
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of an edge to him. Only
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Nimo has ever faced him and he's zero for three
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: with a strikeout. I don't think there's much to take
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: away from that, but I don't trust wizen Hunt and
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Texas is gonna have Cody Bradford pitching. Kind of interesting here.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Bradford is a twenty eight year old lefty and he
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: actually pitched in the majors for Texas in twenty twenty
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: three twenty twenty four, and he actually put up fairly
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: good numbers. He had a pretty good strikeout walk ratio,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Like he wasn't really walking anybody when he was pitching
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: in the majors before, so he had pretty good command.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Although he wasn't like an elite strikeout pitcher or anything,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: but he had a decent strikeout rate and his walk
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: rate was very low. So that's good that he was
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: able to command his pitches. And then he got hurt
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and I forgot about him. He missed all of last year.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Now he's finally coming back after missing more than an
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: entire season with an injury. What are we gonna get
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: out of him? Is the question? Because he's capable of
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: pitching well, but I wouldn't consider him to be a veteran,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: so he's not used to coming back from a long
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: layoff like this, so he may be a little bit
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: slow to start here. I looked at his minor league
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: rehab stints, and he really didn't pitch that much in
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the minors. He was decent. He had like a three
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: ERA and triple A before they called him up. It
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: wasn't really like putting too many guys on base or
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: anything like that. So I guess he looks like he
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: is ready to go. We've seeing that he is capable
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: of pitching well at the major league level based on
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four when he made thirteen starts, which is
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: not nothing. He's probably better than Wisdom hunt Man. It's
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: just a matter of is he going to be totally
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: up to speed right now? And do you really want
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: to lay minus one sixty five or whatever with Texas here?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I think the price is pretty high, even though I
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: probably would lean Texas like I think they're probably gonna
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: win this game, but after breaking the losers, you can
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: probably with the better starter here. But at minus one
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: sixty six seems like I don't know, Man, that's a
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: price I wouldn't want to lay. And it's dropped a
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: little bit from minus one eighty one, so some money
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: initially came in against Texas. They got seventy seven percent
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, so they are public, but eighty three
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. Money also seems to
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: be backing the over pretty strongly, eighty three percent of
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over eight and a half. I
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: can kind of see the argument for him. Mean, you
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: got bullpens that aren't really trustworthy. You don't really know
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: if you could trust either starter here. You could go
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Texas over their team total if you want to just
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: focus on them scoring against wizen Hunt, who struggled. If
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: you think Texas is gonna win, you'll probably need them
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: to score five or six runs though at home, or
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: they don't score that much. I think they average like,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: probably fewer than four runs a game at home, so
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: that might not be the best idea. Maybe you know
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: what you could do really is you could money line
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: parlay Texas with the Houston do a Texas money line
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I parlay, you know, to get the price down. I
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: don't hate that, although I don't like parlays because you know,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you don't get good enough odds on them, and the
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: books will screw you on the odds. But they're independent results,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, So the results don't really
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: line up. Although I guess if they're scoreboard watching, Texas
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: and Houston are battling each other, so I guess if
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: they're scoreboard watching, they're both gonna be motivated. But that's
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the thing. They're both gonna be motivated anyway because they
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: know they both need to win games here, and that's
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: that is the other thing. There's a motivational edge for
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Texas and Houston here, both playing against a bad team
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: that's sold at the trade deadline. But that's also part
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: of the reason why you're paying way too much of
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: a price for it. But yeah, I mean, I guess
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: you could moneyline parlay Texas and Houston because I do
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: like them both to win, but I personally that is
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: not something that's in my repertoire. So I'm just giving
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: you guys potential options there. But I do think they'll
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: both win the game. You could make a minus one
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: run line on each of them and play each game
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: and if you win one of the to you know,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna put you in the poorhouse. So whatever,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: although there's a decent chance that you lose one and
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: push one and that's not great. Tampa Bay at Colorado,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: this has been a high scoring series in course field.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta's Tampa Bay debut did not go well, although
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Tampa still won the game. So Colorado has lost both
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: games in the series of farm. This is the end
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: of the series, so Colorado is looking to avoid the
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: sweep here, Tampa Bay, who are they playing next? I
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: already forget I think they're playing Yeah, they're playing Seattle.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I think they're playing somebody fairly good.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay might look ahead here because they've already
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: won the series now against Colorado. They have a decent
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: series next against Seattle, so possible Tampa overlooks Colorado here.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe there, you know, there might be some indicators that
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: maybe you should lean towards Colorado here. I would not
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: do anything with their bullpen though, except avoid them. They
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: use six guys out of the bullpen. Colorado's bullpen is
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: not good. Tampa Bay us six as well. I think
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: it was an extra inning game yesterday. That's a lot
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: of bullpen usage. I'm pretty sure yeah, it went into
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: extra innings, So I would avoid the bullpens in this one,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: even though Tampa Bay's bullpen has generally been alright. The
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: ranked third, although I don't think they're quite that good.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Colorado is definitely not good. The rank twenty seventh Tampa
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Bay eighth, offensively tied with Atlanta Colorado fifth, so Colorado's
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: offense has been the slightly better of the two. Nick
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Martinez is getting the start for Tampa Bay here. The
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys continue to not like Martinez because he's
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: an older guy. He doesn't strike anybody out, but he's
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: had a good season all season pretty much two point
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: seven to seven ERA, one point one whip. He's been
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: really good on the road two point zero five. Roadyra
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: got knocked around last time out against the White Sox,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: though at home they hit him for four home runs.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: You coulda argue he got a little bit unlucky in
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: that one because he actually he didn't really allow many
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: guys on base, so pretty much everybody came in and
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: scored against him because of the home runs. He's got
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: a reasonably low hit rate here. He doesn't really walk
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: anybody but he also doesn't strike anybody out. Like I said,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rates really low, and the problem with him
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: is pitching a course field here. He's got an extreme
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: fly ball rate and he's allowed a fair amount of
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: home runs here, So I don't know if him pitching
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: a course field is really going to be the best
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: thing for him. You don't really want to back a
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: fly ball pitcher like that unless he strikes out a
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: ton of guys, which he doesn't do. If you're pitching
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: a contact and a bunch of guys are putting in
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: the air, that's going to probably hurt you event in
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: course field. And again, he did give up four home
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: runs in his last outing, so that's maybe not a
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: good sign. He's generally been good against Colorado though, in
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: thirty one at bats to twenty six average five awad
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: ops seven to one strike out walk ratio, So I
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: don't really want to fade Martinez here. Tomoyuki Sugao is
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Rockies. This is like the this is
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the battle of the advanced analytics hate, because the advanced
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: analytics hate both of these pitchers big time. Suganom He's
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: had a way better season than anybody thought here in
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: corps Field four point four to seven e RA one
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: point two to six whip overrun. He's actually been better
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: at home three point seven to eight home BRA. Really
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: crazy to think about. He's still pitching pretty well here, man.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: He had a good run in July. He only made
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: three starts because I think he was injured for a
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: bit or something. He pitched well since coming back. He's
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: allowed three or few earned runs, and all of his
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: starts he's allowed a bunch of home runs. Though he's
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: allowed five home runs over those last three starts. That's
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: not good, but Colorado won all three of them. He
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: only walked one guy over that span. His hit rate
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: is a little bit high, it's more than one per inning.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: His walk rate isn't bad, though he doesn't really walk anybody,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't strike anybody out, So sounds familiar, sounds kind of
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: like Martinez. He allows way too many fly balls, though,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: and way too many home runs, which you would think
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: would kill him in course field, but it hasn't. Like
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: he's just I don't know, man, Maybe he's getting a
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: little bit lucky that the home runs that are coming
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: in against him just are with nobody on base and whatever.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: It's kind of crazy, but overall, I mean, just looking
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: at his numbers, his whip isn't really that bad, so
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: he's not really putting that many guys on base. His
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: numbers against Tampa Bay are kind of hard to figure
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: out because it's only twelve at bats. They have five
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: hitters who faced him. Aroanda does have a home run
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: off him. They have a two to fifty average, eight
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: to eight ops, one to one strike a walk ratio.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with this game, man,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I really don't. I mean, you got two fly ball pitchers.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are used up, so there are and neither
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: pitcher is that good. Like the advanced analytics guys, they're
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: not just total dumbasses, you know, even though I think
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: that they over rate the advanced analytics. There are probably
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: more arguments for this game to play the over than
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: anything else. But fifty to fifty on the tickets, six
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: On the over.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: It's a course field total at eleven and a half,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: so you're gonna need a lot of runs. If you
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: do that, and you just saw the pitching matchup numbers,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: it might not happen, so I don't know. And then
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: you do have. Colorado is a big underdog price here
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: cash on Tampa Bay about minus one fifty something minus
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: one sixty here. Again, I I don't have a great
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: read on the side Colorado is trying to avoid the
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: sweep here. If you want to play into that at all,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: you could try to take Colorado in the first five
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: innings on like the run line or something. Try to
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: bet them to just stay stay in the game in
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: the first five. I don't know if they're gonna be
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: able to do it because Martinez is probably better than Sugano.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want to play a first five
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: when I don't have the better starting pitcher. You know,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: that's that's not something that I would do. And you
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: got to avoid the Colorado bullpen. So yeah, I don't
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: have a great way to a great angle on that game.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I think the better way to play it is just
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: to go over. But yeah, nothing really on that game
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: for me to arty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the Rockies they're never gonna be good man, because good
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: pitchers don't want to go there, and whenever they have
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: a decent pitcher they leave, and I guess Hughes probably
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: didn't do well yesterday either, or maybe the bullpen blew it.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe it was the bullpen that was
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: at fault Anaheim at Baltimore. My first look at this game,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching in this one, we're getting
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: to the evening games now. This game looked like an
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: under to me right away based on the starting pitching,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: and maybe it is. Baltimore won the game yesterday. That
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: was the first game of the series. Baltimore won three
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: to one yesterday. We know both these teams sold at
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline, so motivationally, neither team is really gonna
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: be that motivated as far as that's concerned. Baltimore used
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: three relieve pitchers yesterday. Anaheim used one, So the bullpens
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: are pretty rested here. Maybe the bullpens are backable if
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: you're gonna look towards an under here, Anaheim is the
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: of the two. They're not that bad. They're twenty first
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: for their era is at least kind of I would
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: say it's at least tolerable, But I don't know if
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: i'd really want to back their bullpen Baltimore's twelve. Their
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: bullpend I think is at least backable, but they've been
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse recently as well. Starting pitching the well.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Actually offense hang on offensively. Baltimore's twentieth now, so they've
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: fallen off a bit and Anaheim's been pretty bad. They're
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, so the offenses are not very scary in
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: this matchup. Anaheim's going with Redebt Meers. You know, I
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: think he's a good pitcher. I think he's better than
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: his four point h three era mix. And look, he's
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: got a one point one whip, which is pretty good.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: He's let me down a couple of times, though, trying
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: to back his first five unders, which I don't like.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty much the same home and away. His
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: splits are very insignificant. He's pitching better again. Go figure
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: as soon as I stop betting on him, he starts
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: pitching better again. His last three starts have all been
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He's racked up a bunch of strikeouts, he's
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer runs and all of them, however,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: his team has lost all those games. They've lost his
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: last five starts, And of course, if he's pitching well.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: You know that means he's not getting run support or
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the bullpen is horrible behind him. And in the last
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: three games it was the run support. So the last
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: three times he's been on the mound, those games all
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: went way under the total because he pitched well and
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: his hitting did nothing behind him. And we know Anaheim
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: their offense is gonna be even worse because they traded.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I got it all wrong, man, Joe Adell went to Cleveland,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland actually was the one that got Foster Griffin.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I thought it was the Braves.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: I think I was thinking a team that has a
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Native American nickname, basically that has blue and red in
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: their logo. I think that's what I was thinking of. Yah,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland got Foster Griffin, which is interesting. Cleveland's they're going
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: for it, man. Their starting rotation is actually pretty solid,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: although Cleveland's off it still sucks anyway. Debt Meur's, Yeah, overall,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: he's good. He's got a high strike up rate, his
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: walk rates not really too high. His hit rate is
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: really low, so he's really hard to hit. Doesn't really
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: put that many guys on base, strikes a lot of
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: guys out that's all pretty good. And against Baltimore he's
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: been pretty good in forty eight bats, one seventy five average,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: six fifty ops, fourteen to four strike out walk ratio.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: That's all pretty good, man. And he's going up against
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Trevor Rodgers, who has turned his season around, although I
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: think recently he's kind of been worse again. He's got
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: a four point two to seventy RA one point two
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: eight whip. Based on what he's done with Baltimore, I
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: think he's a little bit better than those numbers suggests.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: So though he's been a little bit worse at home
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: here four point four to three Homie RA Camden Yards
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: is a bit more hit or friendly, but he's still
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: been pretty good recently. His month of July was actually good.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: His command numbers were good. He's hardly walking anybody over
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: the last few starts. Gave up some runs last time
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: out against Detroit, but the fielding definitely laps behind him,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: and half the runs he allowed were unearned in that one.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: He's got a hit rate that's below one per inning
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: at this point, so that's okay. He does doesn't really
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: walk that many guys. Strike out rate isn't really that
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: high either, but he's generally been pretty effective. Here he's
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: going on against an Anaheim offense that isn't good, but
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: they actually have done damage against them, although it's almost
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: entirely from Travis Darnaut, who is seven to fifteen offen
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: with five doubles in a home run. If you take
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: him out of the equation, the rest of Anaheim's lineup
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: only his one hitoff and which is Frasier with a single,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: But overall they have twenty two at bats against him
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: across four hitters, three sixty four average, one thy seventy
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: five ops five, zero strike out walk ratio. I know
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: those numbers look bad, but again it's a small sample size,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: and Darnaux is the one that does all the damage,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't really hold that against Rogers that much.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: One guy. You're only gonna see him so many times,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: you know. So I still think the under is the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: right way to look at this game. You could make
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: the argument for the first five because Anaheim's bullpen is
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: not really one that you necessarily want to back. The
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the over, though the totals
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: of eight fifty four percent of tickets on the under
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the cash on the over, but
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: I like the under there. You could go first five
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: under in that one. You're probably gonna get a four
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: and a half or something on that, So I don't
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: hate the first five under in that one, and maybe
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: that is what I would do, just to avoid Anaheim's bullpenalther.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: You know how the first five unders have gone recently,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: and it seems like whenever I try one with Debt
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Merse it loses. But yeah, it looks like an under
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: to me man either full game or first five. As
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: far as the side, I don't really know, and Baltimore
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: is around minus one to eighteen now, they dropped from
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: minus one forty one, so the money actually came in
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore eighty five percent of tickets eighty seven percent
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Baltimore. Baltimore looks like a public side,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: and it looks like the real money actually knocked the
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: money line down against them. I could see the argument
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: for it, right because Debt Movers does actually have the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: better matchup numbers there as we just saw. So if
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: you really want to put any weight into Rogers' numbers,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: theref gonna back Anaheim. I would only do it in
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: the first five because they do not have the better bullpen,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: so Anaheim first five I guess is maybe an option
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: in that one, but I still think the under is preferable.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Rockies ownership, well, I mean, what do you want, Like,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: they need to move, Like the only way that they
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna attract good pitching is to move out
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: of Colorado. Like, you're not gonna attract good pitching when
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: you're in course field. This is not gonna happen. So
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: they're they're at a location like disadvantage. Like as a franchise,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: the location just isn't gonna support a good team like
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: ever because nobody wants to go there and pitch because
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: it's gonna ruin you. So yeah, I mean the only
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: way that that that that franchise is gonna attract better players,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: better pitchers, is to move the team. So that's that's
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: what I gotta say about that A's and Cincinnati. Uh,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: this game on the surface looks like like a pretty
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: clear overplay. I Mean, these pitchers are bad, but I'm
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: hesitant to actually want to do it. Yesterday was the
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: first game this year. Cincinnati won the game five to four,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: which stayed under the total. I'm pretty sure the total
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: might have been right at nine. I don't remember. Cincinnati.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: They do have a bad bullpen as well. They use
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: three guys out of the bullpen. The A's bullpen is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: also really bad. They use three guys. It doesn't really
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: matter what the usage was. This A's bullpen is horrible.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: They ranked twenty eighth, but they're I think they're the
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen. Their whip isn't that much better than Twins
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: and Royals who are behind them, and they have the
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen era the A's do. This is a really
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: bad bullpen. Cincinnati is not that much better at twenty fifth,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: So these are bullpen's I would avoid. The A's have
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: kind of fallen off offensively. They're at sixteenth now. The
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Reds really haven't been very good all season. They're at
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: twenty first, but the offenses might come out in this game.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, the offense has almost got to the total yesterday.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: And these pitchers are not good. Jacob Lopez is pitching
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: for the A's not good five point seven to ninety
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: RA one point six to seven whip. He's better on
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the road in a way five point one to two
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: road ERA, which kind of makes sense because pitching in
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the A's stadium that they play in is obviously bad
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: for basically every pitcher. But he's still not even really
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: good on the road. His opponent of batting average is
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: still really bad on the road. In fact, it's even worse.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: He's pitched okay his last couple of starts, but his
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: walk number has been kind of high in those starts.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Even though he's only allowed one ear and run across
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: his last ten to third innings against Minnesota and Boston,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I still don't think he's good. He's not going deep
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: into these games. The walks have been an issue here.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: He's got a high hit rate on the season. His
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: walk rate is also way too high. Strike out rate
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: is mediocre. These numbers don't look very good, however, Cincinnati's
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar with them. They're only zero for one off
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: and with two walks. They have two hitters that have
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: base him Suarez and Trevino. Not a whole lot to
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: see there. But I would lean against Lopez here. I mean,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think him being unfamiliar to the opposing offense
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: is really gonna do him enough favors to overcome that.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: He's not a good pitcher. Cincinnati's got Ret Louder pitching.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: He's not good either, five point four to two ERA,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: one point five to two WHIP. I will say that
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: they might put an opener in front of him because
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: he's come out of the bullpen repeatedly. So just be
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: aware of that that if you're gonna play this game,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: you might want to just play action or pick Lopez
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: to start. I guess because he probably will, Louder might
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: be I think Louder is just a little bit less
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: likely to actually make the start here and might come
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: in out of the bullpen. Now. Louder He's actually been
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: way better at home though, and he's at home here
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: three point oh seven home ERA, so Louder is at
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: least maybe backable at home. His last two starts have
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: actually been okay, so maybe you don't really want to
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: rush to fade him here. He pitched well against Pittsburgh
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: last time out. That was one of his better starts
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: of the season. Go figure. He was terrible against Pittsburgh
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season, but it was the difference between
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: home and away. I guess it is significant with him.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: He's still got a high hit rate here, his walk
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: rate's not very good. His strikeout rate isn't really high either,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: so there's still not really a lot to like here,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: although the As have never faced him, so maybe he'll
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: have that unfamiliarity edge here. I still lean over in
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: this one. I just think you get bad pitching pretty
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: much throughout this game, but I don't know if it's enough.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: You know, based on the matchup numbers that we just saw,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I have some concerns about it. Of course, nine and
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: a half is the number here, so it is above
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that key number nine fifty four percent of tickets eighty
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the under I disagree, obviously.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I lean over in that one, but it's not gonna
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: make the cut for me. The money's also coming in
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: on the A's seventy three percent of tickets on Cincinnati's
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of the cash on the A's I
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: don't agree with that. I think louder he's been pretty
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: good at home, and he's been kind of in better
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: form over the last couple of stars, even though both
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: pictures have actually done a little bit better over the
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: last couple of starts. But some of that is about
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: the price. The fact that the A's are getting the
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: money there. The price is not great on Cincinnati, around
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: minus one point fifty. I don't know if you should
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: really be laying that price with louder on the mound Man.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that game. I guess
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the arguments for the under would be that both pictures
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: have pitched a little bit better recently, and they're both
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: in the better of their home road splits. So yeah,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, those are things that kind of concern me
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: about playing the over, although I slightly lean over in
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: that one. Next game up is going to be a
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: play for me, and the money looks like it doesn't
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: agree with me. But I found a really good number
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: on this too. We're gonna take Mets and Indians Cleveland
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: under eight and a half, although it looks like it
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: was mostly eight out there. But I found a straight
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: up eight and a half at minus one ten at
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: the m book with the lion like there were a
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: couple in the scoreboard book also had the same number,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: so the number was all over the place, like I
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: saw seven and a half at a couple of the outlets,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: and I saw eight at a couple and eight and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: a half, So the books are not really in sync
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: with each other on this game. But whatever, I'm like,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: all right, I'll just find the better number here on this.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: I would still do this at under eight obviously. I
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: think you'll at the very least be able to find
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: an eight on this and that's what I'm gonna recommend here.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Seven and a half is fine, probably because seven is
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: the key number. But SOB, what's up man? You went
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: against Peralta and Schooble. You took the Rockies plus one
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: and a half and they didn't cover that in extra innings.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: That's pretty brutal. You took the over and the Dodgers game. Yeah.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I wasn't involved in either of those games. I didn't
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: give out anything on either of those games. Yesterday. I
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: think I might have, did I lean under in the
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: in the Dodgers game. I forget I might have. I
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: don't remember. Yeah, I mean I would not have wanted
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: anything to do with either. I thought Paralta might pitch better.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, Paralta is not a bad pitcher, dude. It's
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: just like I thought that it was the environment that
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: he was in was just holding him back. I don't know.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: But Mets Cleveland, first of all, we have two really
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: bad offenses. Yere. Okay, so we have number twenty nine
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Cleveland tied with the Blue Jays, and the Mets are
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: twenty eighth. I think Sodo is still out. I know
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Cleveland went and they got some guys at the trade deadline,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: but they're not going to all of a sudden be
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: a powerhouse offense here, you know what I mean. And
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: guys have to kind of take time adjusting to the
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: new team whatever. So yeah, I think we could definitely
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: fade these offenses. I'm gonna leave the bullpens in because
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the bullpens aren't really that bad. The Mets are seventh,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is seventeenth. They both have eras below four. Some
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: fine with that. As far as the usage yesterday, it
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: was kind of normal. Cleveland only these two guys, so
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's in good shape. One of them was Chaconi,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: who's usually in the starting rotation. So Cleveland's bullpen is
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: pretty clean right now. They have good hygiene. No, and
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: then for the Mets, they didn't really use any of
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: their back end guys either, although I know they traded
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: away Luke Weaver to Pittsburgh. But Mets u Sanga a
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: little bit out of the bullpen yesterday, so whatever. But
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with backing the full game total on this one,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: and obviously I like the starting pitching, and maybe the
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers will get us more than just the five
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: innings here as well. If you wanted to go under
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: the first five, I wouldn't disagree with that either. Cleveland
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: did they play a lot of low scoring games at home.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: We know that. Yesterday they actually lost the game six
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: to two, and I thought Cleveland would do better yesterday.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: I kind of leaned Cleveland yesterday. Didn't love either starting
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: pitcher yesterday, but I liked the starting pitching matchup here.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: Christian Scott. We're gonna back him again for the Mets.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: He's been good, dude, and I think he's still under
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: the radar. Two point nine to nine ERA. Yeah, that's
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: pretty good. A one point two four whip maybe not
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: quite as much, but still that indicates the ERA probably
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: should be in the threes, which is still not bad.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: He's been really good on the road two point eight
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: two Roady I ran a one to eighty six opponent
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: batting average, so he's actually a little bit better on
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the road. He's been in pretty good form recently, had
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: one bad start on the road against Milwaukee, but other
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: than that, he's been really good over the past month.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty much good most of the season here.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: He's got a low hit rate, high strikeout rate, so
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: he has the ability to strike guys out of the
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: major league level at a pretty high rate, which is
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: a really good sign. His only issue, if there is one,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: is the walks. He walks too many guys, but that's
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: been a little bit less of a problem recently too.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: He's pitching well. He's coming off a nice outing against
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the Braves where they lost, but that wasn't really his fault.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: He got no run support in that one, and Cleveland
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: has basically never seen him. Only Adele and Bailey have
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: seen him in They're zero for four with two strikeouts
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: against him. So yeah, I don't have a whole lot
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: else to say about that. But I was gonna make
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: some sort of Adele the musician reference, but I don't
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: know her music well enough to do it. Yeah, a
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: multiple Grammy winner coming over to Cleveland, whatever, Uh, But yeah,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: I think Scott matches up well here. Cleveland's hitters that
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: have seen him haven't done anything against him, and he's
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to most of their lineups, So you know what
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: I talk about. When a young pitcher is unfamiliar to
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: the opposing offense, that's usually a big advantage to them.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna help him, and I'm also
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: backing Tan or Biby again on the other side here,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: I think Biby goes under the radar too, because look
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: at his record. Man, it's awful at four and eleven. Well, yeah,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: but he has a three point eight one ERA and
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: one point one five whip. Those are pretty good numbers.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: His ERA should be better than it is based on
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: that whip. And you know what this means. If he
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: pitches pretty well and his record is that bad, it
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: means he gets no run support. So what does that mean.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: It means you should take unders in his games. And
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: I've done it repeatedly and it's worked out fairly well
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: for me this season, I'm pretty sure. So, yeah, he's
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: a guy that pitches well and also doesn't get a
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: lot of runs behind him. He's basically the same home
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: and away, not really significant splits here, worse Ray at
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: home very slightly, but a better opponent batting average at home.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Biby has been a good form pretty much over the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: last really over the last couple of months, he's looked
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: pretty good. So yeah, he's continuing to pitch pretty well.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every all
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: but one start going all the way back through the
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: beginning of June. He's got a low hit rate here,
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: His walk rate's pretty low. Strike out rate is not
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: high though, so that's the one thing. He doesn't really
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: strike a lot of guys out, and he does allow
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: too many home runs. But other than that, pretty solid pitcher,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: strong numbers for the most part, and he's facing a
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Mets team that doesn't do a lot of damage offensively
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: and hasn't really done a lot of damage against him.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: They have forty five at bats against him, they have
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: seven guys who have faced him one seventy eight average
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: five ninety three oh ps eight to five strike out
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. So the walk rate isn't really that good there,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: or I guess the strike out raders just kind of
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: low again there. But he's held the Mets down offensively otherwise.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: So I like it. We're gonna play the under in
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: this one. I think it has a lot of things
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: going for it. Man I think you have two pretty
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: good pitchers here, and offenses that are not particularly good,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: and bullpens that can get you the rest of the
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: way through. The money's back in the over. I have
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: no clue what's going on with this market. Read sixty
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets on the under, ninety three percent
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. I obviously strongly disagree
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: with that. We're taking the under. It looks like the totals,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what's going on with
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: the total because books have a different number like everywhere here.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know how the eight and a half, So
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: we're kind of hanging around out there. But I think
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: you'll at least be able to find an eight on
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: this at a pretty good price. So that would be
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: my recommendation, obviously, and not much of a difference between
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: eight and eight and a half in baseball. It's kind
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: of in no man's land. The seven is the key number,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: as I say, the odd numbers are all key because
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you got to break the tie. Fifty percent of tickets
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on the mets, by
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: the way, so the money is slightly back in the
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: mets here. I can kind of see the argument for
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: it if you think that Scott kind of has that
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: higher ceiling there, he's the better strikeout pitch at the
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: very least. I don't have a great feel for the
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: total for the excuse me for the side there, because
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I like the totals, So yeah, under is my playing
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: that one all right? And I think we get a
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: pretty good number on it too. Washington in Philadelphia. Philadelphia
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: is hot right now. They did just pick up a
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Rias at the trade deadline here. They've won four games
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: in a row. They've won both games of this series
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: so far. The series continues tomorrow and you kind of
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: know that that's the case because it's a night game.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: So if teams are finishing their series, usually it's an
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: afternoon game. This is a night game for them. So
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a four game series. This pitching
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: matchup though, Like right away, I looked at this and
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, this is we don't have good
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: pitchers going in this pitching match up here, so and
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: we have bad bullpens here too, So perhaps the over
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: is the way to look at this game. Washington used
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: two relieved pitchers yesterday, but I don't trust their bullpen.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: I don't trust Phillies either, even though they only use
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: one guy. These are very good bullpens. Washington's is twenty six,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: their eras almost five. They're bad. Philly is nineteenth. They're
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: not really that good either, So these are bullpens that
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: you could definitely fade. The offense is Washington is number two,
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: although they did trade some guys away at the trade deadline,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: so their offense might fall off a little bit, but
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: they're still way up there. Philly added pieces at the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: trade deadline, so their offense might get a little bit better,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: and they have some good hitters that just haven't really
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: been hitting that well. They're at twenty second, though, so
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: they have struggled this year. However, they do hit better
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: at home, and Washington hits better on the road. So
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of components that make
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: this look like an over Like the pitching looks like
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: it's bad. Throughout this game, you have both teams and
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: their better offensive splits here. The only thing that's kind
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: of a negative is Washington traded some of their hitters away.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Jake Well, that in Philadelphia just hasn't been good offensively generally.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington. I did try to
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: back him in his last start, which was his first
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: start back from in and I think we should have
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: had it if I remember correctly. I think he had
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a three to one lead and then blew it in
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: the right in the bottom of the fifth. He blew
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: it against the Braves, But I think Irvin had good
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Braves. He does not have good numbers
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: against Philly, and he hasn't really been that good throughout
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: his career, and he hasn't been that good this year
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: five point five sixty RA one point three to two whip.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Although he is better on the road and I did
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: try to back him on the road last time. He's
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: been way better on the road, actually four point five
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: to four ROADIRA won sixty three road upon a batting average,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, he is way better on the road. But
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: he did struggle in that last start against Atlanta, although
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: everybody that reached bas scored against him, so he did
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: get a little bit unlucky. He didn't put that many
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: guys on base, but he also didn't strike anybody out,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: which might be a little bit of a concern because
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: usually he is a decent strikeout pitcher, but I think
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: that number will probably go back up again. He has
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: a fairly low hit rate here. His problem is the walks. Obviously,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: if he has bad numbers and the hit rate isn't bad,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: the strike up rate isn't bad. You know what his
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: problem is, it's the command. He walks too many guys.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: And Philly has had the best of him in a
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: huge sample of one hundred and fifty three at bats
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: two eighty one average, seven eighty nine OPS, twenty one
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: to ten strike out walk ratio, So Philly doesn't totally
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: dominate him, but they're definitely pretty good against him. So
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I think Irvin is definitely fatable here. And Philadelphia is
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: going with Andrew Painter, who is back up on the
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: major league roster here, and it's this is still his
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: rookie season. He's really struggled. Six point seven to two ERA,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: one point six to one whip. He's been really bad
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: at home, a seven point zero five home he arad
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: though it actually his opponent, batt A Gaverage, is actually
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at home. And now it's interesting
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: because I'm pretty sure they send him to the minors.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: In mid June, they sent him back down and then
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: it looks like they brought him up in late July,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: and I didn't even realize when they did that because
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: I think they probably did it last minute, and I
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: when I handicapped that game, it was probably an undecided
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: starter or something. But he actually pitched well in that
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: game against Baltimore. Other than the fact that he walked
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: three guys, he held Baltimore to two runs and six innings,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: three hits, six strikeouts. So maybe Painter fixed some things
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: while he was down in the minors. I still don't
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: think I would trust him, though, you know, Washington's a
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: better offense than Baltimore. Will we'll see what he could
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: do in this game. You know, he faced Washington actually
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: in his first start of the season. He actually did
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: well in that start, and it was here at home.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: He struck out a lot of guys and that one
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: and that made me think that he might actually be good.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: And then he fell off completely after that. But maybe
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: he pitches well against Washington. However, they do have a
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: three to zero eight average off him. The guys that
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: are in their current lineup only six guys six ninety
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: two opponent bat six ninety two. Excuse the ops batting
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: average would be ridiculous. Six ninety two ops is actually
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit low. They don't really have any power
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: hitting off him. Five strikeouts, no walks. Still, I think
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: it's enough to probably look at the over.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: I mean it's not on my card, but my lean
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: in this game is the over. Still, you know, I
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: think the pitching is probably bad enough that that would
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: be the way to attack this game. Let me see here,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: it looks like the money is not totally agreeing. We
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: have fifty eight percent of tickets, fifty six percent of
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, so the money kind of disagrees.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: The total is high nine and a half, which I
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: always say when it's high, it's high for a reason,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: and I think that might be the case there. The
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: money is also backing Washington very strongly. Eighty six percent
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Philly, eighty seven percent of the
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: cash on Washington. Some of that's the price, like Philadelphia
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: minus one ninety, Like the price has gone up from
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty something to the minus one ninety range.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Should Andrew Painter really be a minus one ninety favorite?
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: And I think that's why the money's coming into Washington.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: I would say no way. Yeah, there's just no way
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: that painter being on the mouth that should necessitate being
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: a favorite of that price. It just makes no sense,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: you know. And Philly still does not have a very
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: good run differential, so I still think Philly is not
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: as good as the record looks. So the Washington side
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: makes some sense. And the fact that philm we might
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: start overlooking them because they've already won the first two
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: games of the series. So that's what I got as
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: far as that game is concerned. Next up is Saint
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Louis and Yankees on Amazon Prime. The first game was
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: unbelievably high scoring, and then yesterday there were like no runs.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: The Yankees won two to not thing yesterday in the
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot. Kind of crazy that Schlittler had a
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: terrible outing, and then whatever the hell the Yankees did
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: yesterday resulted in a win, which I think was Ryan
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Weathers on the mound yesterday. I don't know, man, We'll
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: see what's gonna happen in this game. I don't really
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: have a good read on the game today, although obviously
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are the better overall team here and the
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: team that is like playoff bound here. You know what,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I mean where Saint Louis is not going to make
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Sorry to say for the Saint Louis fans.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: The NL is also really difficult. Yankees used three or
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: league pitchers yesterday. They did use their closer yesterday, but
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's gen really been good. Saint Louis has been
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: not so good, and they use only one guy out
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen, so they're a little bit more rested.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: But the Yankees have the better bullpen. Theyir ranked fifth
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: right now, but their second in era behind the Red Sox.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: They had one really bad game two days ago, but
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna be a trend that will continue.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is twenty second in the bullpen, so they're
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: not particularly good. Yankees' offense has definitely struggled recently, though
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: they're down to fourteenth right now, tied with the White Sox.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis still worse there too, though Saint Louis is
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: twenty sixth, and Yankees are gonna start getting some guys back.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: And I know they brought Lombard is that his name
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: their rookie that they brought up yesterday. He hit a
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: home run in the game yesterday in his major league debut,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: so we'll see if he's actually gonna be good. But
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: he did hit a home run yesterday. Saint Louis has
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: Andre Piante pitching in this game. He's not particularly good.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: He's got decent numbers though, three point seven to two ERA,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: one point two two WHIP. I don't think he's as
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: good as those numbers suggest, but he has good on
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: the road two point six to six rody with a
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: one eighty six at point batting average, So Payanti is
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: a guy that you could back on the road. He's
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: been pretty good in his last three starts, so I
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: guess that's a decent sign. I still don't think he's
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: that good though, looking at his overall numbers, his hit
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: rate is okay, his walk rate is a little high,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: strike out rate is really low. So he's a guy
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: the advanced analytics guys don't like because he pitches to contact,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: he doesn't strike anybody out. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: really ugly because he doesn't strike anybody out, but he
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: gets a lot of ground balls. But again, that's kind
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: of like David Peterson, you know what I mean. Although
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: David Peterson always had kind of a bad whip. Andre
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Payontes is not really that bad. He's in the better
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: of his home road splits. It is possibly pitches well here.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Yankees are not good, though in
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: forty four at bats, the two fifty batting average against
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: isn't too bad, but nine to thirty one oh ps
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: is bad. Yankees have four home runs off of for
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: four different batters twelve to six strike out walk race,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: so I don't think he's actually gonna do well here. Again,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: it's possible his numbers aren't too bad. He's in the
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: better of his splits here. I don't think it's a
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: good matchup for him, though. The Yankees do have a
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly ballpark. But the Yankees are not countering
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: with one of their better starters either. They have Will
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Warren on the mound. He's got a four point one
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: to four ERA, but his whip is not really that
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: good at one point three to six. He's been a
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home though three point seven to
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: five home ERA. Pitched really well last time out on
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: the road against the Cubs. Was struggling before that, though.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: He really hadn't been that good for most of the
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: month of July. Maybe he's coming back into form that
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: starting against the Cubs was really good. But we'll have
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: to see if he can continue that multiple games in
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: a row again. You know, he's got a kind of
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: a high hit rate here. He's been too hittable, more
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: than one hit per inning. Not good. Walk rate is okay,
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: strike go out rate is pretty good more than one
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: per inning, so he's not that bad, but he is
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: a bit too hittable, and that's like the one major
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: issue with him. Saint Louis has not done much against them.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: The other have five hitters with face them, nineteen at bats,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: no extra base hits, one fifty eight to average four
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: thirty one ops five to three strike out walk ratio. Yeah,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Yankees are probably the right
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: side here. I mean there. I guess there are some
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: arguments maybe for an under again here, because you've got
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: two offenses that haven't been good recently. The money is
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: backing the under really strongly, the under eight and a
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: half here, fifty two percent of tickets on the over,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the couch on the under. You
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: do get two pictures that are maybe overlooked, I guess
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: in just that people don't really care about these pictures.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: They're not name pictures. They're both in the better of
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: their home road splits Warren as good matchup numbers of
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: the Payante doesn't I don't like Saint Louis's bullpen. Maybe
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: a first five under in this one of though, you
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: know me, I've been hating the first five unders recently,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: but this one probably will get about a four and
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: a half on it. Maybe that's worth considering some sort
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: of under here. The money's also back in Saint Louis.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm not sure that I see that eighty two
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Yankees seventy two percent of
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: the cash on Saint Louis. Again, I think a lot
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: of that has to do with price, Like should Will
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: Warren be minus one fifty something? You know what I mean?
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Probably not, but Saint Louis is not that good and
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Warren has the better matchup numbers as I just showed you.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Even though it's a small sample, I think I would
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: lean towards the Yankees in this one slightly. You'd have
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: to probably make a minus one run line out of it,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: though you could maybe play the Yankee well. I don't
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: know because I just said the under, but I'm thinking
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: maybe you could play the Yankees over their teams total.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Might might actually be a way of playing. I don't know, man,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Like when I first looked at the
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, I was kind of thinking maybe even
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: an over in that game. But looking at the the way,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: the digging into the numbers a little bit makes the
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: under look a little bit more like the play there,
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: and the market seems to agree with that. But whatever. Yeah,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: it's not a game that I want to get involved
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: in it all. I'm confused by the game. The next game,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to make a play on it in the
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: Battle of the Saw, and it's probably not what you
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: think because my first reaction on this was that it
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: looks like an under. But instead I'm gonna play the
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: White Sox in the first five again here, which I
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: know didn't work out at all yesterday, But this pitching
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: matchup I think favors the White Sox more heavily than
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: you would think, and that's what I'm gonna do here.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: I know the Red Sox have been completely on fire.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Everybody thinks front stoppable. They won in a horrible spot yesterday,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: and that was my one loss on the show. Yesterday.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Red Sox in a return home spot cross country, in
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: a letdown off of sweeping the Dodgers, and they still
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: win fourteen to two yesterday. Well, I think that we've
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: gone a little bit too far here. Everybody's saying the
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: Red Sox is gonna win the World Series. The Red
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: Sox are good like they're a playoff team, like I've
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: been saying, They're not as bad as they looked early
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: in the season. They have really good pitching typically yesterday
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: they had their worst pitcher on the Mountain Sandoval. But
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: I think the pitching matchup is actually bad for the
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Red Sox here, and they have a picture who's in
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: bad form who seems to not be good late in
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: seasons anymore because he's old now, which is Sonny Gray.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: So I'm backing the more youthful pitcher who's in the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: way better form right now here. And I'm avoiding the
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: bullpens because the Red Sox have an elite bullpen, although
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: the White Sox have pretty much saved their whole bullpen
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of days. They only used Eric
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Fetti yesterday. They dude, they just put Fedti in and
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: they just let him get knocked around. Yesterday because they
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: knew the game was over, so they just saved the
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: rest of their bullpen. Red Sox didn't really use many
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: of their good relievers either. They brought Eric Miller in
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: just to get him some work after they traded it
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: for him. He came in face one guy and struck
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: him out. BeO continued to be the Bao thing is
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: just completely ridiculous, dude. BeO leads major League Baseball in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: ra for relief pitchers. As a relief picture, he has
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: like a zero point six era leading the may out
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: of pitchers that have enough innings to qualify as a
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher, Yet he was an absolute dumpster fire as
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: a starter. It makes no sense, dude. Bao is an
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: elite relief pitcher and he's terrible as a starter. It's
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: so laughable. Dude. Although yesterday they brought him in in
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: a no pressure situation where he seems to do well
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: in those situations. They brought him in, he got a save.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: They let him throw the last three innings of the game,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: which made sense because it saved the Red Sox better relievers.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: You know, just bringing BeO to finish the game off.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: That's what they did. Kind of ridiculous, but whatever. The
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have the better bullpen, so I'm avoiding the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. Red Sox number one in bullpen and both
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: whip Andy Ira. The White Sox are not bad. They're fifteenth,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: so their bullpen is capable, but obviously they don't have
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: an advantage there, so I'm gonna only focus on the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. Hitting wise, the White Sox have still been
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: the better team. They're fourteenth, though the Red Sox have
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: been climbing. Red Sox are eighteenth now they explain loaded yesterday.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Though this is a team that couldn't score anything at
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: home early in the season. The Red Sox playing better recently,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: and I should have mentioned that because I know I
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: pointed out the Red Sox are bad at home, and
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: they still are. They're still twenty six and twenty nine
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: at home, though I know the White Sox are bad
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: on the road, even worse than the Red Sox are
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: at home, and yes, I should have pointed out with
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: that play, I say, yes, the Red Sox have been
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: better at home recently, but this hot run the Red
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Sox have been on most of the games have been
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: on the road, so I still don't love the Red
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Sox as a home team here, and I like the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. We're gonna back Sean Burke here. Man, I
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: don't like it as a Red Sox fan, but Sean
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Burke is gonna be returning to his home crowd here.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: He's from Sutton, mass so this is not the first
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: time he's pitched in Fenway. He did pitch in Fenway
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: last year and he did okay in that start. But
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: I think Burke, you know, whenever he pitches back in
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: his home land here in Massachusetts, you got to think
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: that his family's going to be at the game probably
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So I think that'll give him an extra boosts.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: So I like that. That happens a lot with pitchers, quarterbacks,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: things like that, when they go back to where they're from,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they're a little bit extra motivated,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: more so in the first time the first time they
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: do it, though, and this is not the first time
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: he's doing it, but Burke is also he's the White
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: Sox best pitcher, man. I know. Martin looked good. Shane
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Smith looked good. For a while. Martin has looked good
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: for a while this season, but Martin has fallen off
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: and Burke has been their best pitcher over the last
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: month or so. He's got a three point four ERA,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: one point one whip, He's been really good on the
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: road with a two point five ROADYRA and his opponent
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: batting average is good either way. But look at what
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Burke has done the month of July. He put up
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: a forty five to four strike out walk ratio in
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: thirty one and two thirds innings with only twenty hits
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: a lout. Is that good? Yeah, he had more than
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: a ten to one strike a walk ratio. Yeah, that's
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: more than eleven to one. Yeah, that's that's pretty good.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Double digit strikeouts in three of the five, including his
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: last two, which are against Houston and the Yankees. So
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: he's not exactly doing this against bad offenses, even though
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I know the Yankees have been bad recently. But still
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Burke has been excellent recently. He's got a low hit
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: rate on the season, pretty low walk rate on the season,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: high strikeout rate. All these numbers are good. Doesn't allow
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: really that many home runs even though he's kind of
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: a fly ball pitcher, strikes out enough guys that he
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: still should be able to pitch well, and Fenway and
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have not done well against him. He
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: did not face the Red Sox in that other series
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: when the Red Sox swept Chicago in Chicago, Burke did
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: not pitch in that series. So these numbers are from
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: long ago. Like these numbers are from when Burke wasn't
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: even as good as he is now. And the Red
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Sox are only three for twenty two, often William Abray
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: who does have a home run, but that's the only
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: extra base hit. They have ten strikeouts, no walks against them,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: one thirty six average, four h nine ops. I hear
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: revving engines outside again, I think it should be illegal
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: to do that in a residential area. Fuck those people.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Sean Burke when he's faced the Red Sox,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample, but he's completely dominated them. So
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I like backing Burke here in the first five, and
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: we're gonna fade Sonny Gray. Unfortunately, as I said, Gray
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: Gray kind of describes what he is at this point. Man,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: he's old. I know he's had a good season. Two
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: point nine to three ERA, one point one to seven whip.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: That's all really good. He was a great pickup for
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, But if you've seen what he's done
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, he seems to tire
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: out at the end of the season and not do
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: as well, and he might be starting to do that here.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: I know he's been good at home two point seven
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: two ERA two twenty opponent batting average at home, really
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: good stuff there. His last two starts have not been
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: that good though. He's given up nine runs over the
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: last twelve innings. I know one was at the A's Stadium.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe you got to give him a pass for that.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: But the last time he was here in Fenway, Toronto
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: started hitting him and he couldn't get out of the inning.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: He was cruising, and then he just completely fell off
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: a cliff in the in the sixth inning. I think
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: it wasn't He couldn't get out of the sixth inning
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: at all, and they got like six straight hits off
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: him or something. He scored five runs off him in
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: the blink of an eye. And that's Toronto, not a
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: good offense. So I don't think Gray is in very
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: good form right now. And then yeah, maybe again you
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: might give him a pass for pitching somewhat poorly at
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: the A's and he's still got to win in that
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: start because the Red Sox put up enough runs behind him.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, things things look way better
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: for Burke than for Gray right now. Gray has not
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: really struck that many guys out. His strikeout rate has
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: gone down as he ages. You know, he still has
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: a pretty good hit rate here. He doesn't really walk
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: many guys, which has been the case throughout his career.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: But with a guy like him, if his velocity's down,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: he puts a lot of pitches on the plate, you
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, because he gets guys to kind
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: of hit into outs. So advanced analytics guys don't like him, though.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: I think the advance analytics guys don't think he's that bad,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: but they probably will tell you. I'm assuming he's expected
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: era is probably about a run higher than his actual
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: ERA here, which still wouldn't be bad. But he's not
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: quite as good as his numbers look doesn't strike guys out.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Burke obviously has the better strikeout stuff. The higher ceiling
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: here is the younger pitcher, and the clincher for me
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: is Gray is not good against the White Sox. He
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: did not pitch in the last series against the White Sox,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: so he hasn't faced them this year. But the White
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Sox are very familiar with Gray because he was on
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins for a while. So they do have
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of guys that have hit against him quite
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: a bit. Of course, a lot of it is Ben
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: and Tendy, though Ben and Tendy does a lot of
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: this damage where they have fifty two at bats against him,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: three twenty seven average, eight forty four ohps, ten to
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio, so the ratio is pretty
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: good there. Again, Gray doesn't walk a lot of guys,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he gets hit around man, and
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the problem, is he he becomes way
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: too hittable at times. That might be the case here.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: The market seem to agree with me yesterday in the game,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: and I know it was a bat it was a
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: big loss, you know what I mean. But the market
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: agree with me yesterday, and it looks very similar today.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Ninety two percent of the tickets are on the Sucks.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: The public is all over the Red Sox. You know
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be all over the hot commodity, The hot team.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: It looks way too easy to play the Red Sox
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: at minus one twenty or whatever. Here eighty five percent
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash, so the money is coming in against them.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: And I know we have a huge disparity here between
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: the number and the first five and the full game
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: because odds makers know the Red Sox have an elite bullpen,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen is a huge factor as far as
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: why the Red Sox are the favorite for the full game,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: the White Sox are actually the favorite in the first five.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: But I don't think this price is that bad. At
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: around minus one eighteen. I think I found it at
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: I want to say this was at FD. I want
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: to say I did see like minus one twenties out
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: there too. But this is my recommendation, is to play
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: the White Sox on the money line at first five.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you can find a decent price on that. I
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: would at least try to make sure that it doesn't
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: get up to about minus one thirty, though, I mean
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: that would be rerillly insane. If it's minus one thirty
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: on one side in the first five and then the
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: other side is almost minus one thirty in the full game,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: that's kind of a crazy disparity. But I think, well,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: it looks like the M Book with the Lion looks
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: like they have a high price on the red Sox.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: You might be able to find a decent number there.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: And actually that might have been where I found this.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: Actually I'm not sure the M Book is where I
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: found that other total, the total that I gave out
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: so far. All right, but yes, that is my play there.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back and i'll talk about the remaining
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: five games. I have one more play here and it
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: might be obvious what it is, and I'm hoping that
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: it's going to come through this time. And then I
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: have one other. One of these other games I actually
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: like almost well enough to put on my card, but
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven run
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: over the last two days after tonight it was just
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: complete bullshit. So that's time to start off this show.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: to tell you about that. I just don't want to
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Man the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: day at all. OWN four I have not had a
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: good season man. With wookends the slump that I'm on,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: and the slump continues, I've reached a new pink. Actually,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I don't
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March Hape,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: To a slump series sump, discontinuous. The slump continues. Somebody
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: all all right. Next game is uh Miami and Atlanta. Here.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: I first looked at this and I was thinking, Miami
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: has a pretty decent pitching edge here and you're getting
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: him as an underdog. But I dig into it and
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: it's not really so much the case, So we can
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: take a look at it. Atlanta's hot right now. They've
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: won a bunch of games in a row. They won
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: six games in a row. They won yesterday in the
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: first game of this series against Miami. Possible bounce back
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: maybe from Miami here. I mean, Atlanta could kind of
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: go on cruise control a little bit here because they
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: have such a big lead in this division. So Miami
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: probably gonna have to have more motivation here because Miami's
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: fighting for a wildcard spot here right now. Miami has
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: a decent bullpen. These two guys. Just today, Braves have
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen they used three. Braves are number two
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: in bullpen though they're the number three ERA, but still
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: obviously a top bullpen. Miami is fourth. Olough, I don't
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: think they're quite that good, but obviously we have capable
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. Both offenses have been decent. Atlanta's eighth tied
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: with Tampa Bay. Miami's dropped a little bit. Their tenth
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: tied with Detroit. Right now, believe it or not, Uri
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: Perez is pitching for Miami.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: I like him. I think he's good. He's got a
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: lot of talent. He's had a good season here. He's
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: got his walk right down and that's definitely showing. He's
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: got a three point four to four ERA one point
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: one whip pretty good stuff here. A little bit worse
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: on the road rray wise three point five to nine roadra,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: but his opponent batting average on the road is actually better.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: He's good like all around man. He's been in good
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: form recently. He had a good month of July ERA
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: one point six y nine in July. Wasn't really walking
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: too many guys, although it's still maybe a slight issue there,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: but not as much as it used to be for him.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: And he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and all
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: those starts two or fewer in all but one of them. However,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: Miami lost his last four starts in a row, so
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: the bulp, not the bullpen. The hitting behind him just
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: hasn't really gotten going, so it wasn't really his fault
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: at all. He's got a really low hit ray here.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: His walk rate is not great, but it's better than
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: it used to be for him, and his strikeout rate
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: is pretty high, so he strikes a lot of guys out.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: He's very unhittable. It's just he still walks kind of
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: too many guys. But it's a little bit less of
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: a concern now than it used to be for him.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Like I said, but his numbers against Atlanta are bad.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: In fifty eight at bats, Atlanta has definitely had the
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: best of him. Three sixty two average, eleven h two ops,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: ten to five strike on walk ratio. So I can't
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: back Perez based on that. It's a decent sized sample
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: and he's definitely struggled against Atlanta. Even though I like
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: him as a pitcher, I think he's better than Bryce Elder,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: but this does not look like a good matchup for Perez.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: Bryce Elder is pitching for Atlanta. He's got a three
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: point eight four ERA, one point two to five whip,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: decent numbers there. He is pretty good at home three
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: point one six home ERA. He's been good recently for
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: the most part. I guess like his ERA was low
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: over the month of July at three, but he's still
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: he had a lot of walks. Man his strikeout walk
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: ratio was ugly in July at eighteen to ten. You
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: can't really do that consistently and consistently not allow runs
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: at the same time, you know what I mean, helloed
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: three or few earned runs at all those outings. But
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: you can't keep walking guys like that and getting away
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: with it. He's got a reasonable hit rate here, it's
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: pretty low. His walk right on the season isn't really
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: that bad, and his strikeout rate is okay. So yeah, again,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of mediocre numbers across the board here,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: but his walk rate seems to be kind of bad recently.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: In my Miami has good numbers against him in forty
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: four at bats two ninety five average, eight twenty two
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: oh ps, eight to five strike out walk ratio, So
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not really that good here either. So
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: looking at all that, I think maybe the way to
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: play this is to go over the total. It looks
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: like the money agrees with that. The totals at eight
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: and a half, so it's right there in the middle
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: in Nowhere Nowheresville, fifty nine percent of the tickets ninety
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the over money seems
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: to agree. Yeah, I agree with that. Both pictures seem
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: to have a bad matchup there, and they look good
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: based on their numbers, so it almost looks like an
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: under if you just if you just look at their
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: surface numbers here, but you dig into the matchups, neither
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: pitcher matches up well, so I think the over might
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: make sense there. Uh seventy nine percent of tickets, fifty
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on Atlanta. Atlanta's dropped for
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty something into the minus one twenty, so
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: the money is back in Miami here. I don't necessarily disagree,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: like I like Perez and overall, I think Perez is
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: better than Elder and definitely has a higher ceiling and
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: he's taller. But looking at the matchup numbers, I can't
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: come in and do that, so I don't really have
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: a great feel for the side there. I might agree
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: slightly with the lean to Miami, maybe just in the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: first five because I don't really think they have a
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge either. But over, I think is the way
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: to play that ESPN game Pittsburgh Milwaukee. This is my
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: last play of the day, and it looks obvious, like
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: I saw the pitching matchup and I'm like, I know
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: what I'm doing here, and the numbers I think support it,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: But I'm worried. Man I'm worried, but I think the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: numbers are enough. I think I have to do it,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: like I think the play is there for the taking.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take under in Pittsburgh Milwaukee, just like I
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: did yesterday. I found it at seven and a half
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: at minus one twenty at the Scoreboard book. Although most
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: books seem to have a seven out there. If you're
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: on the seven, I would say, still do it. You
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: can probably get the seven at like even money basically
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: or something like that. But maybe wait a little bit
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: and see if you can find a seven and a half,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: because I prefer getting that hook as long as you
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: don't have to pay more than like minus one twenty
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: something for it. You know it's a key. You're right
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: on that key number seven because you have to break
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: a three three tie, So that half run does matter.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: But the books know that, and that's why a bunch
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: of them are not offering you that extra half. But
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard book, the one that used to be owned
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: by ESPN, gave me that number. So this is what
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at here. There are a lot of things
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: I like about this. We took the under in the
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: game yesterday, of course, and it hit and the bullpen's
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: actually pitched well. I know McGill pitched for Milwaukee yesterday.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: He's their closer, but he hadn't pitched in three days.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: He only threw ten pitches, and they've used them multiple
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: days in a row before, so he might be available
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: again here. But either way, I think Milwaukee's bullpen is good. Anyway,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: they only used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: It wasn't really heavy usage. Pittsburgh used three guys as well,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: and it wasn't really heavy usage for the most part either,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: and they didn't really use any of their better relievers.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: I don't think, although I kind of forget who their
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: better relievers are, but I think the bullpens are okay
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: to back here. The Brewers you could definitely back. They're
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: number nine in bullpen. They're one of the better bullpens
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. Pittsburgh, like I said yesterday, they're
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: not good. They're twenty third, but the era isn't that
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: bad at four point twenty nine. So I think given
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: the entirety of the circumstances and hopefully the starters can
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: get you deeper into the game than just the first five,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: I still think this is the preferable way to play
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: it rather than trying to go you're gonna have to
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: go under like a three or three and a half,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: try to go first five. So I'm not gonna do that.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: We'll suck it up and we'll include Pittsburgh's bullpen in
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: this again like we did yesterday. Hopefully it's gonna get
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: there because look at the starting pitching man. I know
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: Paul Skins. I know he's been struggling recently, but you
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: know that he's still a good pitcher man. And he's
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: pitched a full season in the Major's what I think
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: twice now already. Yeah, basically he's done this multiple times already,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: so I don't think he's getting like tired yet. He
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: threw one hundred and eighty seven innings last year, so
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried about him tiring out yet. I think
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: he's still a very good pitcher. I know his era
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't look good right now, three point nine that's not
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: good by skiing standards still good though, and one point
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: one to one whip is still good. Skins, I know
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: he's had some issues on the road four point five
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: to six road hera. He's not as good on the road.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: He's still fucking Paul Skins though. Man, I think he's
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: gonna get back on track, and I know he doesn't
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: look like he's in good form right now. Giving up
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: ten runs over his last nine to third innings against
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: the Cubs and the Reds. It seems like there's something
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit off about him. But his strikeout rate
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: is still there. He's still striking out a ton of guys,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: so I think he's getting maybe a little bit unlucky here. Man.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: That start against the Cubs, like everybody that reached Bay
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: scored against him pretty much. I don't know, Man, in Cincinnati,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: he was too hit able and he walked too many
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: guys against his so that was legitimately a bad start.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: But I still think he's gonna bounce back. Man, He's
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: got a low hit rate, he's got a pretty low
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: walk rate here. Strike gout rate is still really high,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: so he's obviously still going out there and fooling hitters.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has not really had success against him in seventy
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: one at bats. They have a one to eighty three
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: average against him, five nineteen obs, twenty three to four
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: strike aut walk ratio, so across the board, good numbers
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: for skiings against Milwaukee. He did just face them back
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: on July twelfth. I don't think the recent familiarity's gonna
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: help Milwaukee that much, even though they do have a
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: good offense. Yes, both teams have good offenses. I know
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: I said that yesterday. Pittsburgh is fourth, Milwaukee seventh. Pittsburgh
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: is not as good on the road though, and I
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: forget what else I was about to say, but I
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: think good pitching defeats good hitting, and that's that was
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: part of my handicap yesterday. I'm doing it again here. Man.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: It's still Paul Skans. He's been good against Milwaukee for
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: the most part here. As I showed in the numbers.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: He had one really good start here at Milwaukee back
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: in April. He completely dominated them. He shut them completely down.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: One hit, seven inning, shot out with no walks and
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts. So that was an excellent start from him.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: And the other start was fine and he still had
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts. So I think he's going to
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: do well in this one. I think he's too good
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: not to bounce back, and we're gonna back Kyle Harrison
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: on the other side, he's finally coming back from injury,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: and I know I wouldn't consider him to be like
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: a veteran, because you know, I like backing veterans when
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: they come back from injury. And I know it was
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: an elbow injury or elbow slash forearm, which is not
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: necessarily great. But he was only on the fifteen day
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: injured list DL disabled list, so that's not that bad,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: so it must have not been that serious. Harrison's had
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: a good season, man, He's becoming a really good pitcher.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox shouldn't have gotten rid of him. They
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: got him in the Devers trade and then immediately sent
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: him away, although the guy the Red Sox traded him before,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: Caleb Durban, did hit a Grand Slam yesterday and is
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: hitting pretty well right now and being a spark of
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. So whatever, Harrison, though, three point oh
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: one ERA one point eight whip good stuff here from him.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: He's been really good at home one point five to
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: three home. ERA. Was struggling a little bit before he
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: went down, but maybe the injury was kind of getting
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: in the way there, Like his last couple of starts
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: weren't really that good. But I'm not too concerned about that.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: And both of them were on the road, but I
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: think if they're saying he's ready to go, he's probably
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: ready to go. I didn't look at his rehab starts,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: but I'm not really too concerned by it. Man. He's
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: been good this year, and his numbers against Pittsburgh are
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: good and twenty four at bats small sample, but twelve strikeouts,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: one walk, so half the bats basically resulted in strikeouts,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: twoweight batting average five thirty two oh ps. Those are
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: all good numbers. And overall, Harrison's got a low hit
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: rate here, pretty low walk rate in a very high
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate, so he's got really nice strikeout ability. I
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: like it. It looks like an under to me. The
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: money doesn't seem to agree. Seventy one percent of tickets,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the over total is low.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: It's low for a reason, man. The odds makers are
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: telling you we got good pitching here, and the money
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: is backing Pittsburgh. By the way, the backing Paul Skians.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: Seventy percent of takets, sixty five percent of the cash
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee at about minus one twenty something here, So
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: the money is saying Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has had the edge
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: over Milwaukee this year so far, I might agree. I mean,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: Skeens is the more established pitcher at this point, so
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: maybe Pittsburgh makes sense if you take Pittsburgh. I would
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: only do it in the first five though, because their
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: bullpen is not as good as Milwaukee's. But yeah, overall,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's an under. I think you have two
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: very good pitchers here, and that's what I'm going with.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm oversimplifying it. Sometimes you don't want to overthink it, though.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: Man pun intended, and we're gonna take the under seven
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: and a half in that one, all right, next game up.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: I like this one too. I almost put this one
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: on my card. Kansas City in Minnesota or Minnesota at
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. Kansas City won yesterday eight to two, so
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: they broke a four game lose streak. And you know
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: I talk about when a team breaks the losing streaks,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: sometimes they win again in the next game, like they
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: have new momentum. So I kind of like that for
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: Kansas City here. I don't like the bullpens. Obviously, Kansas
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: City used four guys out of the bullpen. Minnesota used three,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: I think is what that was. Uh yeah, but These
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: are bad bullpens. Minnesota's twenty ninth Kansas City thirtieth. Kansas
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: City is legitimately bad and the worst of the two bullpens,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: really really bad, only better than the A's debatably hitting wise,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's been okay. They're where are they at? They're twelfth,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota seems like they're trying to win still, which
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous. They didn't really trade away at the trade deadline.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is number nineteen. Kansas City did sell a
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: little bit at the trade deadline because they know they're
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere. They're nineteenth. Offensively, this is a more
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly stadium, though, But Minnesota is going with
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: Dean Kreamer, who they picked up at the trade deadline
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: from Baltimore. I don't know why, man, I don't think
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: Creamer's good. He's got bad numbers here six point five
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: VRA one point three to six WHIP, I guess indicates
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: that his ERRA shouldn't be that bad. But he's still
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: not good. And he was really bad on the road
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: this year eight point five to five road Era. Not
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: good stuff here, really really bad in his last two
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: outings against the Red Sox and then, especially against Detroit.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: He was terrible in that start against Detroit, and he
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: wasn't going deep into his starts prior to those two either.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: He had a bad month of July here. Hasn't pitched
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: that much this year, I know, but if you will
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: get his career numbers, he's a very mediocre pitcher. This year.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: He's allowed more hits an innings pitch, which isn't good.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: His walk rate is kind of okay. His strikeout rate
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty good. He struck out more than one
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: guy per innings, so that's good. But I don't think
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: he's that good. And he hasn't been good against Kansas
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: City either. In fifty two at bats two eighty eight average,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: eight O one ops, seven to four strikeout walk ratio
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: not good stuff there. So I think Creamer could definitely
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: give up some runs here against k C. Noah cam
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: is on the mound for Kansas City. I like Cameron,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: although he struggled more this year than he did last year.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point five to ninety array, one
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: point three to four whip and he's been bad at home,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: So I think moving the walls in at Kaufman Stadium
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: definitely hurt what Cameron's trying to do. He's got a
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: five point seven to six homi araled though at home
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: it's been the walks. It's really been the huge issue
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: for him. So I don't know what's going on with
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: him at home with the walks. His opponent batting average
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: is awful at home two three h seven, like one
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: hundred points higher than it is on the road, so
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: that's not good. However, Cameron has looked really good in
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: his last two starts, though, but both on the road.
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: Fifteen innings allowing three runs of three hits and no
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: runs against Detroit and Minnesota. So he just dominated Minnesota
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: in his last start, but that means he might not
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: do quite as well against Minnesota this time, right because
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota just saw him. But Minnesota's already seen him plenty,
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: so I don't think the recent familiarity is gonna help
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota that much. So Cameron is in better form right now.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: There are concerns here still, right like he's not good
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: at home at all, and his walk rate is still
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: an issue, so I worry a little bit about him still.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: He's got kind of a high hit rate here, his
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: walk rate's not really that great on the season. His
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is mediocre, so yeah, I would say he's
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: a mediocre pitcher at this point. He is good against Minnesota,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: though not just like I said, not just in that
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: most recent Star but they have eighty eight at bats
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: against him and they still haven't figured him out. Twenty
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts, four walks, one fifty nine average, three eighty
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: nine ops. So Minnesota has not been good against Noah Cameron.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: So I think we do have a pitching mismatch here
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: based on the starting pitching matchup numbers here, So I
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: like Kansas City in the first five in this one,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: they're like minus one fourteen in the full game. This
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: one almost made the cut for me. I think you're
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: probably gonna have to lay a little bit more in
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: the first five. I say you can't back their bullpen,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: but I would back Cameron over Creamer. I think he's
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: the better starter. He's got the better matchup numbers here
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: pretty significantly, but I do worry that he's at home.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: But he's also in way better form than Creamer is
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: right now. So current form does indicate that Kansas City
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: or Camera would be the way to look. Here almost
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: makes the cut for me. I think this is maybe
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: my strongest play that's not on my card here because
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: I like this one and the other one that I
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: liked was Houston, but that one it's just, you know,
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit more questionable. The other thing I
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: will say is Creamer might be a little bit extra motivated, right,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: because here's the thing that's my other worry about this game,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: which I'm looking at the Friday schedule there because I
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: was looking at if they're a look aheads or not.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Creamer just went from a team that sold at the
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: trade deadline to a team that actually bought at the
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: trade deadline. So maybe Creamer will actually show up with
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: some effort here because it's his first start with his
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: new team. So sometimes you do get a good effort
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: out of a picture in a situation like that. So
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: that's the other thing that's kind of given me some
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: pause on this. But yes, I like Kansas City in
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: the first five here. You'll probably have to lay minus
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: one twenty something if you do it that way, but
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: that's what I would Money agrees sixty percent of the
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty percent of the cash on Kansas City, So yeah,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. Obviously, that's what I would do
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: is Kansas City money line verse five. I probably lean
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: over in the game as well. I think both pitchers
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: do have some downsides, and the bullpens are obviously atrocious,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: so there's probably there are more indicators starts an over
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: than an under in the total you might be able
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: to get it. Get it at below that key number
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: of nine. It looks like it's at eight and a half.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: So yeah, over makes a lot of sense to me
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: in this one too. Sixty two percent of tickets on
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: the under, seventy seven percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes some sense, but I prefer Kansas
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: City first five. So yeah, Kansas City first five. That
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: would be the next one I would add if I
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: was gonna add another play, but somewhat of a lean
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: to the over there as well. All Right, Detroit and Seattle,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: And I know I said on the show yesterday, I
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: was thinking I was gonna play an under in this
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: game because I thought it was gonna be melting pitching
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: for Detroit, and it looks like it's not. I don't
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: know they what do they do with Melton? Where is he?
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: Unless did he pitch yesterday? Let me see, maybe they
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: decided to pitch him yesterday. Yeah, they did, So Melton
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: want to pitch it yesterday. Damn that sucks, man, because
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: like I wish I knew that, because I would have
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: handicapped that game yesterday. Differently, I mean, I think I
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: probably still wouldn't have had to win on it. I
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: think it probably would have been like an under or
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: something in the game. I think snuck over the total
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: with an eight zero win. But yeah, Melton was awesome
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: again yesterday. I was ready for this to be Melton
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: wou here and I would have gone under in this game.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: But now I'm not gonna do that now because Detroit
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: used Melton yesterday, So they're pitching is not going to
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: be as good here. And in fact, I think Seattle
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: is probably the way to look here. Seattle's still in
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: the running, man, They're still trying to win the Al
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: West here. Seattle bought at the trade deadline a little
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: bit and Detroit sold big time obviously, So Seattle to me,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be the way to look here.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be the more motivated team here, and they
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: have the way better starting pitching set up here. Detroit's
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen game in this game, so Seattle
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: would have to be the way I would look in
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: this one. Detroit used two relief pitchers yesterday, but they're
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: gonna use a lot of relief pitchers in today's game.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: Seattle did use four, but I think Seattle's the better
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: bullpen anyway. Seattle and their starter should get them pretty
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: deep into this game. I would imagine Seattle's number fourteen
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: in bullpen Detroit's eighteen. I think Seattle is the better
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: of the two bullpens here, and they're gonna see less
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: usage in the game today. Offensively, Seattle's really had issues
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: though they're twenty seventh and Detroit is actually tenth tied
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: with Miami. But I don't think the gap between these
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: offenses is that crazy, and Seattle should be able to
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: get something going against a Detroit bullpen game that's gonna
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: have Drew Anderson probably being the first guy out of
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: the bullpen here. He's gonna be the opener for them.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: It looks like he's nothing special. I mean, I don't
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: really have a whole lot to say about that, but
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a bullpen game for Detroit. And then
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: we know that Detroit under is it a J. Hinch
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: who's their manager? I forget, but Detroit has been the
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: team that's been the team that's done this the most
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: with the bullpen games, so they are used to it,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: so they do it a lot. But I don't know
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna work out that well for them, So
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: I don't really like that. And what I would say is,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna play this game, I would pick Wu Mustarch,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: but I would not pick a starter for Detroit because
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: you pretty much know it's gonna be a bullpen game,
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: just don't know exactly what it's gonna look like. Brian
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: Wu is pitching for Seattle. He's been It's been a
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: mystery with him, man, because Wu has had a really
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: good career so far, but this year is a four
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: point five to sixty RA, which is really not good.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: But his whip is still pretty good at one point
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: one point five, although throughout his career he's been a
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: guy with like a point nine whip Like he's been
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: excellent throughout his career. I don't know what's going on
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: with him, but he's been awful on the road this
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: year and he's been excellent at home still, so he's
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: still the same old Brian Wo at home, and he
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: is at home here, it's a picture friendly park. He's
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: got a nice two point two home y RA with
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: a one sixty nine opponent one sixty seven opponent batting average.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I trust Wu at home. Although his last
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: couple of road starts were both really ugly, one in Texas,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: which is not a good sign, but one against the
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers whatever. Maybe give him a pass for that. But
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: his command numbers are still good, even though he's given
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: up a bunch of runs. I don't know what the
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: deal is. He's been a little bit too hittable here,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: but his strikeout walk ratio has still been good. He's
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: still got a low hit rate on the season, although
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: not as low as it usually is. His walk rate
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: is still really low. He doesn't walk guys, he strikes
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: out a decent amount of guys. So I still I'm
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: not off of the Wu train, Dude. I think Wu
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: is still good. I think he's still very backable at home.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: Detroit has had some kind of mediocre numbers against him,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: though he hasn't dominated them in forty two at bats,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: They've been able to hit him for contact with a
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: two eighty six average, but they haven't hit him for power.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: They only have a six thirty six ops against him
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: nine to one strike a walk ratio, so Wu has
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: kind of had the upper hand here. I still think
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: he's way preferable to a Detroit bullpen game here, and
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a bounce back, and Seattle's in one
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: of those spots where the home team got shut out
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: in the previous game, and they should have more motivation anyway,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: given what the season looks like right now, Seattle's trying
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: to win their division. Detroit is done for the season basically,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: so motivation should favor Seattle as well. However, they have
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of tickets seventy one percent of the cash,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: so the money it seems like Seattle's a public side
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: and the money line has dropped on them, so it
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: seems like the money is kind of moving the line
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: in the other direction. They're down to like minus one
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: forty or something. But I think that's the only way
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: that I'd be able to play this game is to
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: play Seattle on the money line. That would be my
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: lean in that one. And then we have one more
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: game San Diego and Arizona, and then I will talk
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: about WNBA, but I almost had to play in the WNBA.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna be selective a bit and stay off
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: of it. Arizona lost yesterday, even though it was Erot
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: against Vasquaz. I don't know Arizona lost that game.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: They won the first game of the series in the
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: return home spot and then lost yesterday. Maybe e Rod
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: is starting to finally falter and the advanced analytics guys
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: are gonna be able to pat themselves on the back.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: Although I have been saying he's not as good as
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: his record looks, but whatever, He's not pitching in this
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: game here. San Diego I think sets up to win
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: this game here today. I like the pitching as far
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: as San Diego is concerned, and that would be the
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: way that I would look at this game. San Diego's
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: got the better bullpen too. They used three guys yesterday,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: but they used Canning and Rodriguez. They didn't really use
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: any of their better relievers yesterday. Arizona used four. I
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: know Arizona's ranked sixth the bullpen with but their eray
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: is above four, so I don't think their bullpen is
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: really that good. San Diego's eighth, but they have a
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: way better era and they have Mason Miller. We know
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: San Diego is a good bullpen. As far as hitting, yeah,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: neither team has been that good. Arizona twenty second, tied
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: with Philly. San Diego is twenty fourth, so neither offense
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: is good. But San Diego's gonna have Casey Miz pitching.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: One of their big acquisitions at the literally right at
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline, they got Myz from Detroit, and Myz
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: was pitching quite well. Two point seventy arra point nine
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: to nine whip Miz looks good man, and he's actually
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: going back to where he started the season. He actually
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: pitched in Arizona to start the season and he pitched
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: well in that start. And I think mys is gonna
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: do well in San Diego because they have a really
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park. Although here he's on the road. But
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: Myz hasn't even been bad on the road either. He's
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: got a three point oh seven roadier ray this year.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: He's been good either way, just slightly worse on the road.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: He was pitching pretty well over the last few starts
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: leading into the All Star Break, not battle though Detroit
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: was not giving him any run support, and maybe San
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: Diego won't either. But he's got a low hit rate,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: low walk rate, a reasonably high strike up rate as well.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Numbers look pretty good across the board here, and his
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against Arizona as well. In thirty two
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: at bats, one eighty eight average, six' ten. Ops those
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: are good. Numbers LIKE i, said he actually started the
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: season here In arizona in Late march and he went six,
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: innings allowed one run on four, hits nine, strikeouts two.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: Walks it was a solo home run that was the
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: only run. There so, yeah he pitched well in that
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: start as. Well he looks like he matches up. WELL
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: i Think maz should pitch well. Here And arizona's going
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: With Mitch, bratt who is the young pitcher. HERE i
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: should have some jokes, here BUT i. DON'T i don't
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: have anything that's coming to mine right. Now as far
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: as his stupid last, Name bratt has. Not he's been
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: a brat for them so. Far he's not been. Good
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: five point two to three e, array one point eight
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: four Whip AND i THINK i said with, HIM i
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: wasn't really that impressed by what his numbers looked like
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: in the. Miners SO i don't know if he's really
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: gonna wind up being any. Good although he's been somewhat
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: better at home at least in that he has a
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: three point eighty six homy, ray but it's such a
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: small sample. Size he actually hasn't really been that good
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: if you kind of dig into. It three point eighty
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: one opponent batting average at home is really not, Good
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: so he really hasn't actually been good at. Home his numbers,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: OVERALL i mean he's only made one home. Start he
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: didn't even make it five. Innings he gave up a
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: lot of hits against The. A's he just kind of
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: escaped that. Start his numbers are not good. Overall he's
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: a lot more than one hit per. Inning he's allowing
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: almost one walk per inning on top of, that which is,
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: terrible and he has more walks than strikeouts. Too strike
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: out rate fairly. Low so none of these numbers are.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: GOOD i wouldn't Trust. Bratt San diego has never seen him,
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: before so he does have the unfamiliarity ed. Year but
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: yet to, me this looks like a pretty big mismatch.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: Here it's just a matter of can can The San
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: diego offense get going enough to actually get this. Done
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: but this one almost made the cut for. ME i
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: Like San diego and this. ONE i think the money
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: seems to agree with. Me eighty percent of the, tickets
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on The mys might
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: be pumped, up you, know to play for a team
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: that's in the, running at least the team that were
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: at least buyers at the trade deadline and didn't sell
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: off Like detroit, did like Once detroit sold off. School
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe mys wanted to get out of. THERE i don't,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: know maybe. Not maybe he wanted to be the guy
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: for a little while With, detroit which is now going
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: to Be Troy Melton Detroit. Melton, anyway with The melton
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: pot whatever which. IS i don't think a good. Thing
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: melton is good, Though but, anyway, Myz, yeah you got
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: a minus one twenty or so price here On San.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: DIEGO i know it's a road, favorite BUT i think
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: it's probably justified. HERE i think it's, reasonable better, starter
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: better better bullpen. Here both teams are going for it,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: though both teams are in the mix in that. Division but,
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: YEAH i Like San diego and that. One that one
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: would not be the last GAME i would put on my,
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: card and in, fact it would be one of the
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: first ones THAT i left off my. Card SO i
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: think the ones THAT i like Are houston on the
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: run line of the minus one run. LINE i would
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: Say Kansas city first five money line is probably the
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: first one to be to not make the cut for,
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: me and THEN i do Like San diego money line
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: as well in the full. Game but HOPEFULLY i picked
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: the right. Games hopefully we get the winners, here and
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: we do HAVE, wnba ALTHOUGH i have not added a,
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: car my strongest lean in THE, wnba did not add
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: it to my. Card first game up As phoenix In,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: Atlanta atlanta just took a loss to A Lot vegas
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: Loss vegas big. Game they got kind of killed in
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: the game that they lost by twenty, two so you
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: think maybe they'll bounce back after, that But i'm not
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: so sure Because atlanta had a five game win streak
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: going which they, lost and a lot of times when
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: a team loses a win, streak they'll be hung over
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: into the next, game so maybe that'll have some impact.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: Here phoenix traded For Kelsey plumb and she actually played
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: in their last Game Againt, chicago SO i didn't think
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: she was gonna, play but she, did so that would
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: have been kind of a factor in that game THAT
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: i would have considered as far as LIKE i would
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: have thought that they would have had to ramp it,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: up like get her, going you, know like it would
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: take a little while to develop the. Chemistry But phoenix
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: Beat chicago, anyway and they're coming up that, game and
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: now this is gonna Be plum's second game with, THEM i,
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: believe so they might be a little bit more like
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: they might have a little bit more chemistry after she
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: got a game under her belt With phoenix in that first,
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: game Againt, CHICAGO i THINK i would lean To phoenix
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: and this, one you. KNOW i also like The west
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: better than The, east even Though atlanta's the better team
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: here for, Sure but The west is better than The,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: east AND i don't Think phoenix is quite as bad
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: as the record looks, still especially since they Added, plumb
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: who was a good. Player the money doesn't agree with, me.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: Though phoenix looks like they're a public, underdog WHICH i
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: don't EVEN i don't see. WHY i don't think the
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: public is actually coming in On phoenix. Here there's no
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: way that they're coming in on the team with the
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: significantly worse, record but seventy five percent of tickets sixty
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash On. Phoenix atlanta's laying about
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: six in this. GAME i would lean towards taking the
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: points With, phoenix but not a strong opinion for. Me
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: the STRONGEST wawnba OPINION i have is On seattle In New,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: york which is ON Usa. NETWORK i think this is
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: zig zag spot similar to, yesterday BUT i don't think
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: it's quite as good as. Yesterday's BUT i Like seattle
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: in this. ONE i don't THINK i really want to
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: put it on my, card Though New york just Beat
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: seattle by, twelve which wasn't really a blowout though it
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: was in a return home, spot SO i thought it
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: was kind of a bad spot For New york crossing the.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: Country but they Beat seattle, anyway and That's seattle's very bad.
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: Dude they're one of the worst teams in the. League
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: so that does worry me a. Little although After New
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: york return home and Beat seattle by double, digits AND
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: i Think New york was a seven and a half
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: point favorite in that one and they, covered they might
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: just look Past seattle here although it is A Usa network,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: game so it is a HOME tv, Game so maybe
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: that'll Keep New york slightly focused. Here so that would
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: worry me a little. Bit but what would worry me?
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: More that would worry me a little bit about Fading New.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: YORK i, mean BUT i think there are some reasons
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: to Fade New york. HERE i, mean their next two
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: games are Against, vegas who they just lost. To vegas
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: finally got revenge against, them so that's a big. Game
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: and then the game after that Is, indiana who the
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: last time they played, Them indiana embarrassed. Them and that's
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: AN espn, game in The vegas games IN abc, games
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: so those are two huge games on. Deck so, YEAH
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: i mean Seeing indiana up after that is almost kind
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: of making me want to do. This oh, man this is.
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: TOUGH i Like seattle, here, MAN i considering It seattle.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: Again they did just lose To New. York they've lost
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: a bunch of games in a. Row can we really do?
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: It?
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: THOUGH i don't, know, MAN i, Mean seattle has been
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: covering in some of these, games like they haven't been
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: getting blown out in most of these. Games and in,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: fact that game again in this long losing streak they've had.
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: Recently that game that they just played Against New york
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: was the biggest margin of, lost the biggest loss margin
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: they've had so far in that whole losing. Stretch so that's.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: Interesting they've actually been losing fairly close, here uh in
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of these. Games so you know What i'm
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: thinking about. It i'm thinking about it right. Now if
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: we dig into this a little, bit looking at what
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: happened in this last, Game New york won by. Twelve
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: the big outlier here there was a big three point,
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: outlier just like there was leading into yesterday's. Game New
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: york shot better Than seattle fifty percent compared to forty one.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: Percent seattle actually had more field goal, attempts to believe
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: it or, not So seattle actually had more chances, here
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: although it's not really because they out Played New. York,
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: necessarily The New york had a ton of turnovers And
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: New york might clean that. Up so that's not really
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: a good. Thing That seattle was plus seven and turnovers
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: and still lost the game by. Twelve that's not a good.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: Sign but there was a big three point outlier. Here
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: New york shot forty one percent from, Three seattle thirty one.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: Percent New york was plus fifteen from three point, range
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: and that was one of the biggest outliers of the,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: game and that probably will see some regression coming into this.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: Game but unlike With, TORONTO i guess Say toronto had
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: won the rebound battle in the previous, Game seattle did.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: Not seattle lost the rebound battle by, seven and they
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: really weren't really in this, game although if you kind
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: of look at, it they were kind of close to
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: being in covering range near the end. Though they were
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: down by nine here with one minute to, go so
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: if you, know one or two shots went the other,
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: way they actually could have potentially covered that one and
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: this one you're getting one extra point here you're getting
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: a eight and a. Half but the money's completely. Disagreement
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: may sixty three percent of tickets ninety two percent of
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: the cash On New, york so the money is all
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: Over New. YORK i don't agree with. That this is
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: my best angle in THE wnba today would be to
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: take the points With. SEATTLE i Guess i'll leave it,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: alone but it's close to me. MAN i Like seattle
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: plus the points in that, one especially seeing That New
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: york Has indiana coming up in two, games not just
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: The vegas game, next and those are both revenge, games
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: and That seattle's been playing close games against their. Opponents
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: so you know, what we're gonna see what the market
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: looks like once we get to SEVEN. PM i don't.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: Know it probably won't change from what we see here.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: THOUGH i don't, know, man but, YEAH i Like seattle.
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: There dallas At. Washington washington just Beat dallas at. Home
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: washington was about a three three and a half point underdog.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: There good win For. Washington maybe that means it'll be
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: a zigzag now For. Dallas Although, DALLAS i, think AS
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: i mentioned, Yesterday DALLAS i think is a somewhat big
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: game up next. Right they're playing Against Golden state, next,
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: Right so that would be kind of a concern if
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: you want to Play dallas to have his zigzag. Here
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: dallas also has less, rest So washington actually has a
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: lot of. Rest washington hasn't played Since, friday so the
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: last Time washington played was that game Against. Dallas So
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: washington's kind of just sitting on that, game and maybe
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: that's not a good thing, though having extra time, off
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: just sitting on that win Whereas dallas was able to
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: kind of get new momentum by playing On sunday and
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: they beat a Bad connecticut, team So dallas was able
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: to get that win. There now they Get washington could
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: be a zigzag spot For, dallas but the problem is
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: they Have Golden state And minnesota in their next two.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: Games those were both big games coming up, next so
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: that has to be a little bit worried About dallas.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: Here ALTHOUGH i THINK i, WOULD i don't, know, man
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: this is a tough game to figure. Out there are
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: handicapping factors that go both ways. HERE i THINK i
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: would lean To, dallas and the money does agree with.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: ME i think maybe if you're just focused on the zigzag,
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: component Maybe dallas will come back and get it. Done
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: you're laying less than the three and a half they
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: were laying last. Time you're looking at like two and
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: a half this, time so you maybe get a little
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: bit more value On dallas. Here BUT i kind of
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: worry about it still because it's a game of the low, total,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: which by the, Way, Seattle New york is a very high,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: Total whereas that was the other difference with The toronto play,
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: yesterdays that was a low, total and you, KNOW i
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: like playing underdogs in low total, games not so much
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: with higher total. Games so that is keeping me a
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: little bit away from That seattle play. Too But dallas Washingt,
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: YEAH i would Lean. DALLAS i got seventy eight percent
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: of the cash on, them fifty four percent of the
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: tickets are On, washington so the public slight lean Towards.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: WASHINGTON i don't really see that being the case, necessarily
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: but it looks like the market readA Saying. Dallas you
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: get better value on the number With dallas. There but
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: it's a low total And washington is a good depfensive.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: Team and you, know a lot of TIMES i do
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: like the better deepfense at home getting. Points that is
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: an angle THAT i THAT i look for a lot of.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: Times that is what you get With washington, here better
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: deepfense at home getting. Points SO i don't, YEAH i,
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: mean it's a game where there are factors that go both,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: ways you. Know and then we Have la And. Chicago
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: la Traded plumb away although she hadn't played with them
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: for a. While this is a battle of two teams
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: that just are kind of going nowhere. Here they're not really.
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: Good it's the second game of the double header ON
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: Usa network and it's ON. Cnbc. Whatever, MAN i don't
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: think people are actually gonna watch this. Thing chicago just
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: lost at home To, phoenix but they are staying at home.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: HERE la is coming in from Beating, portland so they
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: did end a long losing. STREAK la had lost six
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: in a row and they Beat, portland WHICH i thought
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: they were gonna lose that game. Too that was a
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: loss that we took on the show. HERE i Like portland.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: There portland had chances to win that. Game they're winning
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: for the majority of the. Game BUT la was able
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: to end their losing, streak and that might be a
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: good thing THAT la was able to end their losing
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: streak because a lot of times that'll give you some new.
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: Momentum now they're going Into. Chicago they do have to
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: travel though To. Chicago. HERE i think both teams kind
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: of show up. Here money is seemingly back in the
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: under a little bit, here but is really high at
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: one eighty eight and a, Half so the oddsmakers kind
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: of think this is just gonna be kind of a scrimmage,
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: here which kind of makes sense because it's two teams
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: that aren't going. ANYWHERE la is a very bad defensive,
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: team so maybe it will be a high, toll a
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: high scoring game. Here but the money's also back In
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: chicago sixty four percent of, tickets ninety three percent of
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: the cast Of chicago laying the two and a half
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: here or maybe. THREE i don't know IF i agree with.
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: THAT i, mean, again The Western conference is better than The.
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: EAST la is not really that bad on the road
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: at six and. Eight chicago seven and eight at home
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: is not exactly. Good they're not exactly good at. HOME
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: i don't. KNOW i, mean, yeah it seems like the
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: public isn't really Playing chicago there because the record is
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: actually a little bit. Worse so in that, way it's, like,
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: well you kind of want to TAKE la if you're the,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: public because, oh they're the slightly better team getting points
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: team with the slightly better. Record BUT i don't, know,
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: man The Western conference is still better than The. East,
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: however you do have to take into account THAT la
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: had a lot of their wins when they still At Kelsey.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: Plum they don't have her right, now and they haven't
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: really looked that good without, her so that game's really
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: hard to figure. Out i'm not doing anything with. It
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: but IF i was gonna make any W nba play,
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: tonight as you, know it would Be seattle plus the.
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: Points that's gonna do. It, garrett what's up Man. BRAVES
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: i don't know if that's gonna. Be they only they
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: beat The marlins once. YESTERDAY i don't know The marlins
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: have a good shot to win Against Bryce. Elder that's
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: WHAT i would say if you saw my handicap on that.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: GAME i like the, over BUT i still Think Uri
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: perez is better Than Bryce, elder even though they both
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: have bad matchup. NUMBERS i would lean Towards miami in
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: that game on the, side BUT i think the over
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: is the way THAT i play that. Game. Anyway that's
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for the show, here my three players
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: are the under In Mets cleveland kind of surprised there
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: was an eight and a half hanging around other BUT
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: i think you could definitely at least find an eight
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: on that which is there's not really much of a difference.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 1: There we're gonna go back to The White sox in
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: the first five, innings AND i know nobody's gonna want
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: to do, it which is part of the reason WHY
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: i do want to do, it but you saw my
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: handicap on that with a pitching matchup and then the
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: one that maybe seems too obvious but under In Pittsburgh
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: milwaukee and very similar card to. Yesterday we have two
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: of the same place as, yesterday but different pictures, going
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: but STILL i like both of. Those hopefully you can
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: find a seven and a half On Pittsburgh. MILWAUKEE i
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: would still say he could go on to the seven.
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: There that's gonna do. It learn a tone On, twitter
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: learn it tone On, instagram like subscribe to the channel.
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: Here football content will be coming. Up we have The
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: hall Of fame game. Tomorrow, man as preseason, starts you
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: know everybody's gonna want to watch. That Carson beck Against
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: Kenny pickett with the. Quarterbacks it'll be interesting to see
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: What beck can. Do. MAN i, mean he has a
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: chance to get the starting job at some point With
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: arizona if he's able to do, it because they Got Jacoby,
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: brissett and While brissette is a steady veteran, quarterback he
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: doesn't have that much, upside so it'll be. Dressing of,
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: Course caroline is going With Bryce, young but they just
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: don't want them to get hurt in pre season, obviously
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: what else do we do we have going on? Here
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: we're on Audio, Apple, spotify speaker check it out over.
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: There this show covering In you is my yuke channel
• 1:53:15
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• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: com slash and learn to toad if you want to
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: throw me support that. Way The Loser, cast we had
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: a new episode last night that was somewhat fun of
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: that we had a bunch of audio. Issues it was
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: also kind of horrible in the same. Way lived up
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: to its, name that's for. Sure and then The New
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: York giants g spot. Podcast that's gonna do. IT i appreciate.
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: Everybody let's get another winning day out of this thing.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: Today two in one would be. Good good with. Me
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: let's let's do that.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: Peace if the doc starts, talking hand me the, phone
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 2: let's somebody and so let's somebody.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: Know you do not have to.
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: Lose this. Round. Lone hold, on hold on nothing nice not,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: now hold, on hold, on let me pull you are
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: that bad luck by, time but it don't get the.
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: Crown hold, on hold, on stay with, me, now.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 3: Hold, on hold, On.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: You're still. Here