Latest / The Jake Wimberly Podcast / Win Totals, Schedule Breakdowns and more as we head Towards College Football Season

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Win Totals, Schedule Breakdowns and more as we head Towards College Football Season · The Jake Wimberly Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Kelly, excuse me, Kelly Ford on your radio, Kelly down
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: to Jackson. Kelly, you ever been out here? You've been
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: to Jackson?
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: I have never been to Jackson Legic. I would certainly
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: love to. And as many times as we've talked, I
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: feel like, yeah, getting a drink or something after the
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: show would be would be a fun thing to do.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hey, we need to We'll make that happen. When you
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just work, we'll talk. Work your schedule, We'll get you.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: We'll get you down here to these parts at some point.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Speaking of these parts, all right, So we've talked to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of these teams. There are still some teams
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: that I'm very intrigued by. One. You know, Texas Tech
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: is the team if you go to the Big Twelve
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: where last year they were kind of on the radar
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: as a quote unquote by the national media as a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: as a potential dark horse threat. Now that they ended
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: up that that got squashed quickly, how good is Texas
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Tech in this new Big twelve?
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech is a good team. Jake, and I think
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: the Big Twelve is such an interesting conference because it's
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: so deep, it doesn't really have a lot of elite
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: power rated teams at the very top, but it's very
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: deep with regard to the numbernumber of teams that might
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: have an opportunity or a pass I should say to
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: make it to Arlington. So if I look at Texas Tech,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: this is a team that I expect from a power
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: rating standpoint to be a little bit better than they
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: were a year ago, a year in which, as you mentioned,
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: there was a lot of love in the preseason for
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the Red Raiders to maybe be a dark horse in
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: the Big twelve Conference. I've got them better on the
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball this year than last year.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: The defense right about the same, projecting in the mid forties.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: But if you go game by game down Texas Tech schedule,
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: there's only a couple games in which right now I
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: currently make them an underdog. Week six at Arizona Big
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: twelve newcomer there in Arizona. That's going to be a
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: tricky game. Arizona's a top twenty five power rated team.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: For me. It's on the road, only the second road
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: trip for the Red Raiders in the year, back to
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: back week nine to ten road trips to TCU and
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Iowa State, and then in week thirteen a road trip
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: to Oklahoma State. So four road trips within conference play,
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  Speaker 2: that is what I think is going to determine how
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: good or bad of a season Texas Tech has. Can
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: they go oh, you know, it probably needs to be
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: at least two and two, maybe even three and one
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: or better in those games, And if they do, I
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: certainly expect Texas Tech to be in that Big Twelve
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: race come the end of the year because the schedule
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: sets up pretty nicely for them. It's the top ten
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: easiest schedule and all of power for and if you're
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: looking at the Big Twelve only slate, it's number eleven
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: out of sixteen schedules in the Big Twelve in terms
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: of conference difficulty. They miss Kansas State, they missed Utah,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the two favorites in the conference to start this year.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: They miss Kansas, they miss UCF some of the other contenders.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: So I do think the schedule lays out pretty nicely
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: for the Red Raiders. It's the road trips that I'm
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: looking at Arizona, Iowa State, TCU in Oklahoma State. How
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: many of those games can they win? And if it's
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I'll say three or more, that's a big if they'll
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: certainly be in a position to be contending for a
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: spot in Arlington.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Group of five teams. You know, Liberty obviously got a
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: lot of love last year. They obviously went undefeaded and
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: could not hang with the Oregon. Thing lasted about a
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: quarter and a half. Then the better team just took
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: over this year. I mean, Liberty's gonna have an opportunity
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: to do that again. But then Memphis is getting a
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: lot of love. Boys, he's getting love. Is there a
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: group of five teams potentially that could not only get
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: to this playoff but maybe won a game.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: That's a really good question, Jake. I think it's going
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  Speaker 2: to be tough for a group of five teams to
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: win a game in the playoff. And the reason I
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: say that is it's more likely than not that this
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: group of five team is going to be the twelve seed.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: And when you're the twelve seed, that means you're facing
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: the five seed on the road in the first round.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: That five seed is very very likely going to be
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  Speaker 2: you know, the second, maybe third best team out of
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  Speaker 2: either the SCC or the Big Ten. Certainly not one
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  Speaker 2: of the champions that they'll get the divide, but it
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: maybe a team that lost in one of those Connece
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: chapionship games, maybe a team that didn't make it, but
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  Speaker 2: is certainly a really highly power rated team. So I
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  Speaker 2: think being in that twelve spot is going to be
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: very very difficult. But if we're looking at, you know,
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: which ones are the best from a power rating standpoint,
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  Speaker 2: I've got Boise Stay right now as the favorite to
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: land that G five spot. They're also my highest rated
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: non Power four team in the country this year. Memphis
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: for me is number two on that list, followed by
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: a UTSA team also out of the American So I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: think it's a three horse race in the American UTSA
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Twulane in Memphis all right there, all projecting within very
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: close projected wins within conference play. For me, so I
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: think either the winner of the American or Boise State
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: if they're able to win the Mountain West, and again
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: that's a big if they're the best team in that conference,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: I expect them to be hosting that Mountain West championship game,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: but certainly Presno State, Air Force, Unldyoming are all going
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: to have something to say about that. Jack, I don't
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: know if the team is good enough to win a game.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Who knows it's a one off, but having to go
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: on the road that time of the year, depending on
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: where they are. I think it's a big, big aft
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  Speaker 2: for a group of five teams if they are indeed
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: at number twelve seeds.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you would think you would have to have and
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  Speaker 1: again we'll see how the committee kind of frames this up.
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  Speaker 1: A group of five team that was so good that
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: they maybe they got a ten seed or maybe even
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: eleven thing.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: Correct, Yeah, I mean that's certainly one pass. There's also, Jake,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: there could be a scenario in which and doing a
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: way of divisions really hurt the non G five or
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: the non power force in this sense. But there could
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: be a scenario in which, what if you know, a
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: three loss team wins the ACC and a three loss
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: team wins the Big twelve. Like, if we get in
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: that type of scenario, it is possible that you could
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: have a G five conference champion if they went undefeated
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: or had one loss, they could sneak their way then
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: into the top four. Because remember those top four has
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: to be conference champion. So if we assume the big
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: set of the SEC are going to take two of
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: those four spots, kind of regardless of what the records
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: are because I don't expect teams with three loss be
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: playing in that convers stationship game. But what about the
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: ACC in the Big twelve? If we have a three
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: loss champion out of those conferences and an undefeated Boise
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: State or an undefeated you know, Memphis, it is possible
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: that they could sneak their way into the top four seeds.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: And if that's the case, you're getting that first round
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: by and then playing the quarterfinal at a neutral site, which,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: of course you're gonna like their chances to win that
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: certainly much more than going on the road in the
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  Speaker 2: first round.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: How good can Notre Dame be this year in your opinion?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I bring that up just because you know, they just
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: read up and got their new contract with NBC. They're
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere. They've set this thing up to where
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they get the money coming out of NBC plus the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: money if they make the College Football Playoff. I mean,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: they're kind of on par with some of the big
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: most of the Big ten in the SEC financially. Can
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: they get in this conversation this year or maybe even
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: next year, And of course next year is a totally
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: different year to where they are, you know, one of
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the one of the top teams as far as that
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: we're talking about in late November and December.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Notre Dame certainly from a brand recognition standpoint, which
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: we can argue how much that should matter. The reality
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: is it does matter. Notre Dame's up there with anybody,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: and I know they just had a devastating injury at
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: left tackle here in the last couple of days that
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: was reported, so certainly that's going to hurt their chances
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: this year. But this is still a really good Notre
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Dame team overall. I've got them power rated right now
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: number seven, a top ten offense, which would be the
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: best offense that we've seen in South ben since twenty fifteen,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: and a top ten defense right now projecting number nine.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: If they do finish at nine or better, this would
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: be the best Notre Dame defense of the csp ERA
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: by my numbers. So Notre Dame has a big opportunity
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: in front of them this year, and the schedule is
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: actually pretty favorable for Notre Dame. In most years, Notre
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Dame plays one of the most difficult schedules in the country.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: This year, they do not It's number fifty eight out
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: of sixty eight with regard to my scheduled difficulty in
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: Power four, so it's the eleventh easiest Power four schedule.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: The only game this year that my numbers currently assign
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: less than a sixty five percent win expectancy is that
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Week one game to start the season on the road
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: at Texas and n and College Station. I have that
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: one right now as a fifty to fifty game, so
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: that one's a complete toss up. But after that, Notre
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Dame's looking like a favorite in each of their remaining games.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: Because the schedule is a little softer, number suggests that
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: eleven and one would be the required win total to
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: get into really CFP conversation. But I'm going to say
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: that if Notre Dame finishes ten and two, regardless of
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: the schedule, face, I don't believe the CFP committee would
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: keep a ten win Notre Dame team out of the
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: playoff in some former fashion in those seeds five through twelve.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: So I think if Notre Dame can get the ten wins,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: which my numbers right now give us seventy six percent
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: chance to happen, they're going to find themselves in the
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: playoffs this year. And I do expect Notre Dame to
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: be a perennial playoff contender in the twelve team era.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, Jake needed a handful of times in the
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: four team era. There's really no reason to suggest that
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: they won't in the twelve team. Not to mention, they
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: also went to that BFCS national championship game in twenty twelve.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I think it was so this is a program that
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: has contended at the highest levels in recent years. They
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: haven't won a national championship since the eighties. I don't believe,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: but certainly there's someone who I expect to be there
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: year in and year out in a twelve team playoffs.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Totally agree, Kelly Forward. Make sure you have an follow
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: on x at k Ford Ratings kfod ratings dot com. Kelly,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you as always, have a great week. We'll
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: do it in game next week.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Thanks Jack, you too,