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Best Bets Today | Defending Champ Knicks 0-3?! | MLB, NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Tuesday · Toadstool Sports

0:02
Speaker 1: Well, look, man, we went 0-1 on the show yesterday.
0:06
Speaker 1: Once I saw that Miami line dropping, I was thinking, oh, crap. Apparently, yeah,
0:12
Speaker 1: Cooper Flagg, surprise, early comeback from him, so he came back.
0:17
Speaker 1: But even with Flagg reentering the lineup, I still liked
0:22
Speaker 1: Miami in that game. You could have gotten them at
0:24
Speaker 1: a better price at 7.5. You know I talk about
0:27
Speaker 1: the reverse injured player spot where When a star player
0:30
Speaker 1: comes back after being out that first day, first game
0:34
Speaker 1: that he comes back, the line will tend to over-adjust,
0:37
Speaker 1: and sometimes that team, they kind of have to fill
0:40
Speaker 1: their previous roles. They have to get back into the
0:43
Speaker 1: other roles, regain the chemistry that way. It takes a
0:46
Speaker 1: little while, and maybe they get a little bit complacent
0:48
Speaker 1: because maybe they've been playing well without him, even though
0:51
Speaker 1: I think he only has one game or whatever. So
0:53
Speaker 1: I still liked Miami, even with Flagg coming back, and
0:56
Speaker 1: he would have gotten them at 7.5 instead of 8.5.
0:59
Speaker 1: And debatably, I know they lost the game outright, but
1:03
Speaker 1: debatably they should have or at least could have covered that.
1:06
Speaker 1: They were winning throughout the second quarter, third quarter. They
1:09
Speaker 1: had a lead that was near or greater than eight
1:12
Speaker 1: for a while there. They were up double digits a
1:15
Speaker 1: couple of points. And they were still up, I think,
1:18
Speaker 1: maybe by seven somewhere in the fourth quarter. So I
1:22
Speaker 1: do think the final was a little bit misleading there.
1:25
Speaker 1: The game just swung and then they had to intentionally
1:27
Speaker 1: foul probably whatever at the end, but Midway through the
1:30
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, I'm pretty sure they were still winning by
1:32
Speaker 1: like six. So it was looking like they were potentially
1:35
Speaker 1: still going to be able to do this. Yeah, I'm
1:38
Speaker 1: not happy about it. I don't necessarily think it was
1:41
Speaker 1: totally the wrong call. But, you know, yeah, it was
1:45
Speaker 1: a loser. We take losers on the show. It's what
1:47
Speaker 1: it is. Can't make excuses for it. The World Series
1:51
Speaker 1: is all but over. Speaking of over, yeah, I was
1:55
Speaker 1: correct about the over. in the World Series yesterday was
1:58
Speaker 1: just that Milwaukee did all of it by themselves, which
2:02
Speaker 1: is not exactly what I expected. I didn't really see
2:04
Speaker 1: the game going quite that way. Although I did wind
2:08
Speaker 1: up eventually leaning towards Milwaukee as well in that game.
2:11
Speaker 1: And I was wrong about the WNBA as well. That
2:15
Speaker 1: game again went under the total. Valkyries did win, so
2:20
Speaker 1: they have the inside track now, but obviously they need
2:23
Speaker 1: to win one of the next two to finish that off.
2:26
Speaker 1: I'd be happy if that happened because I'm no fan
2:28
Speaker 1: of Angel Reese, but whatever. I don't know if I'm
2:31
Speaker 1: going to have any more plays. I mean, there might
2:34
Speaker 1: be an argument to play Atlanta in the next game,
2:36
Speaker 1: but we'll see. It's going to be weird because I
2:37
Speaker 1: don't even think they know what arena they're actually going
2:40
Speaker 1: to be playing in. They got their home arena for
2:41
Speaker 1: the first two home games. It seems like for game
2:45
Speaker 1: six they're not going to, so I don't know. We'll
2:48
Speaker 1: talk about it when we get to it. That won't
2:50
Speaker 1: be today, obviously. Uh, I believe there's no major, actually,
2:55
Speaker 1: hold on. Is there a major league baseball game today?
2:57
Speaker 1: If there is, I didn't handicap it. So I'm going to, uh, yeah,
3:00
Speaker 1: I'm going to handicap it on the fly. If there is,
3:02
Speaker 1: let me see. There probably is right. Uh, yeah, there is. Uh,
3:06
Speaker 1: so yeah. So yeah, I will have to talk about that. How,
3:08
Speaker 1: how could I forget? Uh, so I will handicap that
3:11
Speaker 1: at the end of the show as well. And yeah,
3:13
Speaker 1: the NFL game didn't go well either, dude. I've, What
3:17
Speaker 1: happened to Philly's defense, dude? They got Saquon Barkley back
3:20
Speaker 1: in the game. Things were looking all right. They were
3:21
Speaker 1: hanging in the game. They took a one-point lead in
3:24
Speaker 1: the third quarter. It looked like things were about to shift.
3:27
Speaker 1: And then Dallas just runs them over for the rest
3:30
Speaker 1: of the game. They just can't stop Dallas' offense the
3:32
Speaker 1: rest of the game. I have Williams in fantasy, but
3:35
Speaker 1: it didn't even matter. I was going to win my
3:38
Speaker 1: matchup anyway. He didn't even need to do that. It
3:42
Speaker 1: got kind of ridiculous, man. That... it wasn't a play
3:46
Speaker 1: for me or anything, but that pick obviously hinged on
3:48
Speaker 1: the Eagles defense. If you had told me the Eagles
3:50
Speaker 1: are going to score 20 on offense in the game,
3:53
Speaker 1: I would have been feeling okay-ish about the pick there, thinking,
3:58
Speaker 1: all right, maybe it's going to be like a 23-20 game,
4:02
Speaker 1: something in that ballpark.
4:03
Speaker 2: Nope.
4:04
Speaker 1: Giving up 38 points, you're not going to win. I mean,
4:06
Speaker 1: it's just, yeah. Especially with what the Eagles have going
4:10
Speaker 1: on on offense. Yeah, that Cowboys offense is definitely legit,
4:14
Speaker 1: but I like defense over offense. I can't... Yeah, I
4:18
Speaker 1: got nothing else to say about that. It was bad.
4:20
Speaker 1: It was definitely bad. We're not going to get everything
4:23
Speaker 1: right here. All right, we'll get into the show today.
4:25
Speaker 1: It's a lot of hockey today, so that'll be the
4:28
Speaker 1: first half of the show pretty much. I'm trying to
4:31
Speaker 1: maybe be selective and limit myself. I got a few
4:34
Speaker 1: strong opinions in hockey. Two of them currently have made
4:37
Speaker 1: my card. I will have an NBA play as well
4:39
Speaker 1: to try to get back on track there, although... Still
4:42
Speaker 1: off to a good start. Every game that does not
4:44
Speaker 1: involve the Miami Heat has been a win for me.
4:48
Speaker 1: So today's game does not involve them. So that's a
4:53
Speaker 1: good thing. And we have a couple of college football
4:55
Speaker 1: games that aren't great. And World Series action continuing. That's
4:59
Speaker 1: what's going on today after the intro.
5:20
Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
5:23
Speaker 2: in your chest.
5:24
Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
5:29
Speaker 2: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
5:33
Speaker 2: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
5:37
Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
5:41
Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
5:45
Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby.
5:48
Speaker 2: Look at me now.
5:53
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
6:03
Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
6:12
Speaker 4: hard But he don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
6:21
Speaker 1: On, stay with me.
6:22
Speaker 2: Now Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
6:45
Speaker 1: No, I don't want to group that. Stupid Firefox. All right.
6:49
Speaker 1: First game up will be a play for me in
6:51
Speaker 1: Carolina and Philadelphia. We don't have the market stuff. I'm
6:55
Speaker 1: looking at that odds logic screen that's on wager track there,
6:58
Speaker 1: the free one. No percentages up right now in anything
7:01
Speaker 1: besides college football. So we're going blind here, baby. But
7:04
Speaker 1: we got a bet right out of the gate.
7:06
Speaker 3: You want to know what I'm betting?
7:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're taking the Philadelphia Flyers. I mean, you could
7:15
Speaker 1: probably guess that, but at least this time it's against
7:18
Speaker 1: a team that's not that good in Columbus. I think
7:21
Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for Columbus. We're getting Philly
7:24
Speaker 1: on the money line at plus money here, plus 108,
7:26
Speaker 1: so decent price there. Oddsmakers may be overrating Columbus a
7:32
Speaker 1: little bit here and possibly underrating Philadelphia, really giving them
7:35
Speaker 1: a home underdog price here. I do not like the
7:38
Speaker 1: spot for Columbus here. They're coming off a nice win
7:41
Speaker 1: over the Golden Knights. So they beat the Western Conference
7:47
Speaker 1: final representative from last year in overtime a couple days ago,
7:51
Speaker 1: beating Vegas. It is the start of a road trip,
7:53
Speaker 1: and usually I talk about how teams are focused to
7:55
Speaker 1: start the road trip, but in this case, I don't
7:58
Speaker 1: think so, because this looks like as much of a
8:00
Speaker 1: sandwich spot as they're going to find, man. Not only
8:02
Speaker 1: are they coming off that win over Vegas, who I
8:05
Speaker 1: think may be a little bit overrated, but.
8:08
Speaker 1: They have Carolina on deck. So that was the Eastern
8:11
Speaker 1: Conference Final representative and champion last year. So they're in
8:16
Speaker 1: a Stanley Cup sandwich here. And after that, they also
8:19
Speaker 1: have to play Dallas, Colorado, Dallas all after that. Then Buffalo, Florida,
8:24
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay before playing Philadelphia again. So there's no let
8:27
Speaker 1: up in the schedule, which you might argue, well, that
8:30
Speaker 1: means they have to win this game against Philadelphia. I
8:33
Speaker 1: don't really think it works that way, man. I mean,
8:35
Speaker 1: this is This is the down spot in their schedule.
8:38
Speaker 1: They have so many big games surrounding this game that
8:41
Speaker 1: it's a bit ridiculous. So this spot is horrible for Columbus,
8:44
Speaker 1: in my opinion. We're going to be on Philadelphia here.
8:47
Speaker 1: You can dig into the box score of this game
8:50
Speaker 1: against the Knights to see what really happened here. The
8:52
Speaker 1: Knights did outshoot them in the game, although Columbus was
8:55
Speaker 1: the slightly more physical team in the game. I mean,
8:59
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say the final score was that misleading,
9:01
Speaker 1: but still it was a big win for Columbus. Meanwhile,
9:05
Speaker 1: Philadelphia took a loss. in their last game, and they're
9:07
Speaker 1: staying at home, and I believe they have the same
9:09
Speaker 1: amount of time off here. Philadelphia lost to Anaheim a
9:13
Speaker 1: few days ago. Close game, 5-4. Yes, it ended a
9:16
Speaker 1: losing streak for them, or ended a win streak for them,
9:18
Speaker 1: excuse me, but Philadelphia was starting to play better, right? Like,
9:22
Speaker 1: once they finally got that first win, they ended that
9:25
Speaker 1: losing momentum and went on a little bit of a
9:27
Speaker 1: run here, beating Ottawa, Colorado, Buffalo, and then a one-goal
9:32
Speaker 1: loss to Anaheim is not that bad, and I liked
9:34
Speaker 1: Anaheim in that game. little bit so there were some
9:37
Speaker 1: reasons to think that Anaheim is going to win that
9:39
Speaker 1: game I think we might have a bounce back now
9:42
Speaker 1: for Philadelphia after that the spot is just way way
9:44
Speaker 1: worse for Columbus here and excuse me Philadelphia will be
9:48
Speaker 1: going with Vlad R in net again and he started
9:50
Speaker 1: out really bad this season but two out of the
9:53
Speaker 1: three wins they got were with him and net and
9:56
Speaker 1: the prior start for him they only lost three to
9:58
Speaker 1: two in a shootout which unfortunately was a loss on
10:01
Speaker 1: the show against Detroit but Still, Vladar has been playing
10:05
Speaker 1: better recently, so I'm fine with that as well. We
10:08
Speaker 1: will take Philadelphia here. Again, we don't see any market
10:14
Speaker 1: numbers here, so that's not helpful, but Columbus is about
10:17
Speaker 1: a minus 125 road favorite. I'm not sure that they're
10:21
Speaker 1: not that great of a team. I'm not sure they
10:23
Speaker 1: really deserve to be favored by that much. I think
10:26
Speaker 1: the gap between these two teams is closer than that
10:29
Speaker 1: as well, so That in addition to the bad spot. Yeah,
10:32
Speaker 1: we'll take Philadelphia at the plus money price there. ESPN
10:37
Speaker 1: has what they consider to be the big game of
10:40
Speaker 1: the night, which is Boston and Carolina. And yeah, my
10:43
Speaker 1: Boston Bruins, really good records so far. But the Ozmakers
10:47
Speaker 1: are still telling you that it's not totally for real.
10:50
Speaker 1: I think they're better than what the Ozmakers thought that
10:53
Speaker 1: they would be at the beginning of the season. But
10:55
Speaker 1: Carolina is still a legit team. They're a championship contender again. obviously.
11:00
Speaker 1: I mean, they just won the championship. Carolina is a
11:03
Speaker 1: pretty big favorite here. I don't really expect the Bruins
11:07
Speaker 1: to win this game. I don't think these teams have
11:10
Speaker 1: played yet, right? For some reason, I was thinking they
11:11
Speaker 1: might have, but I don't think so. The Bruins have
11:14
Speaker 1: faced a somewhat weak schedule so far. They are starting
11:17
Speaker 1: a road trip here, which is usually a focused spot,
11:19
Speaker 1: and they're not going to be unfocused, obviously, facing Carolina,
11:22
Speaker 1: but I expect both teams to get up for this
11:25
Speaker 1: Bruins coming off a couple of wins at home that
11:27
Speaker 1: I didn't really see happening, and they did anyway against
11:30
Speaker 1: Nashville and San Jose. Carolina is obviously better than those
11:34
Speaker 1: two teams. Carolina coming off an easy win over the Blues.
11:38
Speaker 1: The only thing about Carolina that makes this not really
11:41
Speaker 1: good for them is they're returning home from a road trip,
11:44
Speaker 1: and they've been on that road trip since the 17th.
11:47
Speaker 1: They went all the way up to the Pacific Northwest, basically.
11:51
Speaker 1: They did okay on the road trip. They went 3-2.
11:53
Speaker 1: They had a shootout loss in there to Edmonton. Coming
11:55
Speaker 1: back home from that. So I think that is really
11:58
Speaker 1: the main part of the situational handicap here, though, is
12:02
Speaker 1: actually that Carolina is in a bad spot. Coming back
12:05
Speaker 1: from the long road trip here that was long distance-wise
12:09
Speaker 1: and long time-wise. So that is a negative when you
12:13
Speaker 1: return home from a long road trip like that. You've
12:16
Speaker 1: got to get back to home life. You can get distracted, whatever.
12:19
Speaker 1: The fact that the Bruins are 9-2, that may keep
12:22
Speaker 1: Carolina focused here, but I think because this is a
12:25
Speaker 1: return home spot for Carolina, I'm going to have to
12:28
Speaker 1: lean towards the Bruins here. Carolina at minus 190, basically,
12:32
Speaker 1: on the price. Normally, I would say... Because it looks
12:36
Speaker 1: like it's a matchup between two closely matched teams based
12:39
Speaker 1: on what their records are, yet the oddsmakers are telling
12:42
Speaker 1: you Carolina is the way better team. That would have
12:46
Speaker 1: me leaning towards Carolina because the line doesn't match what
12:49
Speaker 1: the records are saying. You know what I mean? And
12:52
Speaker 1: the line is what you really want to look at,
12:55
Speaker 1: not the records. The oddsmakers are the ones that have
12:57
Speaker 1: the actual money on this. But in this case, because
12:59
Speaker 1: the situation is so tricky for Carolina, coming back, I
13:03
Speaker 1: will lean to the Bruins in this one. You can
13:06
Speaker 1: make a plus-one puck line on them probably, but I
13:09
Speaker 1: am not recommending that as a play or anything like that.
13:11
Speaker 1: I'm not going to fade every single team returning home
13:14
Speaker 1: from a road trip, but I don't think I'm ever
13:17
Speaker 1: going to play any team in a spot like that.
13:20
Speaker 1: The other team would have to be somehow in an
13:23
Speaker 1: even worse spot, which is almost impossible. So those are
13:27
Speaker 1: my thoughts on that one. L.A. at Chicago. chicago's coming
13:31
Speaker 1: off a close game against florida and if you dive
13:34
Speaker 1: into the box score there i'm pretty sure florida completely
13:36
Speaker 1: outplayed them in that game but it was close so
13:39
Speaker 1: florida's coming off a close pretty big game against uh
13:43
Speaker 1: you know a two-time stanley cup champion team before last
13:46
Speaker 1: year florida coming off of that could possibly be a
13:49
Speaker 1: little bit of a hangover although they've lost three in
13:52
Speaker 1: a row all to good teams here dallas montreal and
13:56
Speaker 1: florida they could be in a bounce back spot here,
14:00
Speaker 1: but they also could be in a hangover spot off
14:01
Speaker 1: of that big performance against Florida. LA is coming up
14:05
Speaker 1: a nice looking win over the Rangers the other day,
14:07
Speaker 1: six to three though. So that looks pretty good for them.
14:11
Speaker 1: They got Ottawa on deck. So there is, I guess
14:13
Speaker 1: the possibility of overlooking Chicago here to end an already
14:17
Speaker 1: successful road trip for LA. They've already won the road
14:20
Speaker 1: trip at this point. I think both teams have, have
14:23
Speaker 1: similar rest here. So that's really an issue. L.A. is,
14:28
Speaker 1: what are we looking at here for the price?
14:30
Speaker 3: L.A.
14:31
Speaker 1: Is about a minus 120. Actually, they opened around minus 120,
14:35
Speaker 1: but now they're down to about minus 115. It looks
14:39
Speaker 1: like somewhere in that range, minus 117 is the Vegas
14:43
Speaker 1: sharp book line there. So it looks like there's a
14:46
Speaker 1: little bit of a sharp book lean towards the Chicago
14:50
Speaker 1: side here. I guess I will lean that way towards
14:52
Speaker 1: Chicago because they are coming off three straight losses. LA
14:55
Speaker 1: is coming off a win that looked fairly good, so
14:59
Speaker 1: I guess I'd lean Chicago here, but I don't love
15:01
Speaker 1: the fact that they're coming off that Florida game where
15:05
Speaker 1: it was actually misleading. They were not as good in
15:08
Speaker 1: that game as it looked on the scoreboard, so it
15:09
Speaker 1: makes it a tricky spot for them. I don't think
15:12
Speaker 1: it's a particularly good spot for either team, so those
15:15
Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that one. Montreal at St. Louis.
15:18
Speaker 1: This is going to be my other play here.
15:22
Speaker 3: Let's do this again.
15:24
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit telling that we're getting St.
15:30
Speaker 1: Louis as a favorite price here. You find it around
15:33
Speaker 1: minus 115, minus 120, something like that here. Even though Montreal,
15:37
Speaker 1: I mean, they looked really good in the playoffs last year,
15:39
Speaker 1: made the conference final last year. have the better record
15:43
Speaker 1: this year. I think the perception is definitely that Montreal
15:45
Speaker 1: is the better team, and I'm not saying they're not.
15:48
Speaker 1: I just think this is not a good spot for them,
15:50
Speaker 1: and the oddsmakers are telling you these teams are at
15:52
Speaker 1: least more closely matched than you would think, with St.
15:55
Speaker 1: Louis getting almost full home ice at home, meaning that
16:00
Speaker 1: the oddsmakers think these teams are fairly close to even,
16:03
Speaker 1: but Montreal's coming up that nice win this against Winnipeg
16:07
Speaker 1: in the Heritage Classic. So even though beating Winnipeg normally
16:11
Speaker 1: not that big of a deal, but in a game
16:14
Speaker 1: that gets all that hype, the Heritage Classic, it's an event,
16:18
Speaker 1: it was an outdoor game. I think it was the
16:20
Speaker 1: first time that they've done that. They have the Winter
16:24
Speaker 1: Classic around New Year's always happens now, but I think
16:28
Speaker 1: this was a new thing. It was a big win
16:30
Speaker 1: for Montreal. And if you dive into that box score,
16:32
Speaker 1: Montreal did not actually outplay Winnipeg in this game. um
16:37
Speaker 1: in fact Winnipeg kind of dominated the game at least
16:39
Speaker 1: shot wise they had way more shots 13 more shots
16:43
Speaker 1: from Winnipeg here it just didn't translate into goals until
16:47
Speaker 1: Winnipeg scored one late and you know the physicality face-offs
16:52
Speaker 1: whatever all those those stats are all close so the
16:55
Speaker 1: game was a little bit misleading it wound up being
16:57
Speaker 1: a big win for Montreal and That wasn't what it
17:00
Speaker 1: looked like on the scoreboard. People are going to see, oh,
17:01
Speaker 1: Montreal's 6-3-2, and St. Louis is what, like around 500 probably? Yeah, 5-5-1.
17:08
Speaker 1: People are going to look at that and want to
17:10
Speaker 1: lean towards Montreal here based on the perception from last season,
17:14
Speaker 1: based on what they see as the records right now.
17:17
Speaker 1: I think Montreal's a little bit overrated, though, coming into
17:20
Speaker 1: this season, even though they're an up-and-coming young team. I
17:24
Speaker 1: think St. Louis is maybe a little bit underrated coming
17:27
Speaker 1: into this season after they failed to make the playoffs
17:29
Speaker 1: last year. They could definitely compete here, and it makes
17:32
Speaker 1: matters worse for Montreal that they got a big game
17:35
Speaker 1: on deck against Dallas, one of the best teams in
17:38
Speaker 1: the NHL. So I think this is a sandwich spot.
17:41
Speaker 1: Montreal has already won two games on this road trip.
17:44
Speaker 4: St.
17:44
Speaker 1: Louis sitting around here, staying at home, and they just
17:48
Speaker 1: got shut out at home. And you know I like
17:50
Speaker 1: to play on teams after they get shut out at home.
17:52
Speaker 1: It tends to be a good bounce back spot in
17:54
Speaker 1: both hockey and baseball, but especially hockey for a team
17:58
Speaker 1: to play better after they get shut out at home
18:01
Speaker 1: like that. And it was against Carolina, man. One of
18:04
Speaker 1: the best teams in hockey. Now they're going up against
18:06
Speaker 1: a Montreal team that's not as good as Carolina. So yeah,
18:10
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Montreal as far as I
18:13
Speaker 1: can tell. I believe this to be a sandwich spot.
18:15
Speaker 1: I think the line looks... It looks very enticing to
18:19
Speaker 1: take Montreal here at almost even a slight underdog price here.
18:24
Speaker 1: I think it looks way too easy to do that,
18:26
Speaker 1: so that's not what we're going to do here. We're
18:28
Speaker 1: going to take the Blues on the money line at
18:30
Speaker 1: that short favorite price there.
18:33
Speaker 2: All right.
18:35
Speaker 1: Next game almost made the cut for me. Islanders at Nashville.
18:38
Speaker 1: I think Nashville is in a letdown spot. I think
18:41
Speaker 1: that's the simple way to put this. Nashville just beat Colorado.
18:44
Speaker 1: That was a big win for them. I think they're
18:45
Speaker 1: divisional rivals as well, or divisional opponents at least. That's
18:49
Speaker 1: a huge win, and they blasted Colorado 6-2. And it
18:54
Speaker 1: wasn't misleading, actually, either. Well, I mean, a 6-2 score,
18:57
Speaker 1: I guess, will always be slightly misleading, at least. But
19:00
Speaker 1: if you look at the box score, Nashville actually completely
19:02
Speaker 1: outplayed Colorado in that game. I don't exactly know how
19:06
Speaker 1: it happened, although I think I'm, I don't know if
19:08
Speaker 1: I remember, maybe I did have a lean towards Nashville
19:10
Speaker 1: in that game. I don't remember, but it happened. Big
19:13
Speaker 1: 62 win. You got to qualify this as a letdown
19:16
Speaker 1: spot after that. I don't think they're going to pay
19:18
Speaker 1: that much attention to the Islanders riding this high of
19:21
Speaker 1: that huge divisional win. They do have Washington on deck,
19:25
Speaker 1: which you could maybe consider to be a bigger game
19:28
Speaker 1: than this. And then they have Tampa, Carolina, Colorado again
19:31
Speaker 1: after that. So they have a bunch of big games
19:33
Speaker 1: coming up after this. It's just I'm not sure that
19:35
Speaker 1: Washington is cause for that much of a look ahead.
19:39
Speaker 1: I know Washington is pretty good, but their record doesn't
19:42
Speaker 1: totally reflect that right now. Still, I think this is
19:45
Speaker 1: still a really bad spot for Nashville, though. But for
19:48
Speaker 1: the Islanders, this is... is also the worry that I
19:51
Speaker 1: have here, is that the Islanders, they're coming off a
19:53
Speaker 1: game against Dallas where they actually played them close. So
19:57
Speaker 1: the good thing, if you want the Islanders here, the
19:59
Speaker 1: good thing is they were better in this game against
20:02
Speaker 1: Dallas than it looks. It was a 6-3 loss, but
20:04
Speaker 1: if you dive into it, it was closer than that.
20:08
Speaker 1: although statistically not really. Dallas, well, it was weird because
20:11
Speaker 1: Dallas was like a finesse team in the game. Dallas
20:15
Speaker 1: bombarded them with shots, but the physicality all went to
20:18
Speaker 1: the Islanders. Dallas had almost no hits in the game,
20:21
Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. So the Islanders were the more physical
20:24
Speaker 1: team in the game. Islanders won the face-offs as well,
20:27
Speaker 1: and this game was close. It was 3-3 in the
20:30
Speaker 1: third period, and it was still 4-3. with almost 10
20:34
Speaker 1: minutes left in the game. So that is my other
20:37
Speaker 1: slight concern with the Islanders' side here, is that they
20:40
Speaker 1: did just play a pretty big game, and it was close.
20:44
Speaker 1: And yeah, because it was close, it does mean the
20:46
Speaker 1: Islanders were probably better in this game than maybe the
20:48
Speaker 1: score reflects, except they got dominated shot-wise, so that's kind
20:52
Speaker 1: of a negative there as well. But I think the
20:53
Speaker 1: big negative here is they just played a pretty close
20:56
Speaker 1: game against a team that's really good. They put in
20:59
Speaker 1: a huge effort here. So I worry a little bit
21:02
Speaker 1: about the Islanders coming off of this game. So I
21:04
Speaker 1: will keep this one in the back pocket or whatever.
21:08
Speaker 1: This one, if I was going to add another play,
21:10
Speaker 1: this is what it would be, though. I like the
21:12
Speaker 1: Islanders in this game. Nashville is up to about a
21:15
Speaker 1: minus 120 favorite here for minus 115. So you're going
21:18
Speaker 1: to get the Islanders at a slight plus money line
21:21
Speaker 1: price there. That's how I would play this if I
21:24
Speaker 1: was going to do it. This is the next strongest
21:27
Speaker 1: opinion from me. So, yeah, it's still a strong opinion
21:29
Speaker 1: from me. on the Islanders, almost made the cut for me,
21:33
Speaker 1: so this is the first cut for me, or like
21:37
Speaker 1: this is the, or the last cut, let's say, so yeah,
21:40
Speaker 1: like if I was going to add one more game
21:41
Speaker 1: to my card, Islanders would be it, yeah, I like
21:45
Speaker 1: the Islanders in that one, New Jersey at Dallas, this
21:49
Speaker 1: is An interesting game. It's a good game. Dallas on
21:53
Speaker 1: a nice win streak here. They've won five games in
21:55
Speaker 1: a row. They're staying at home here. They just beat
21:57
Speaker 1: the Islanders, like I said. Maybe you could argue Dallas
22:01
Speaker 1: got a little bit of a scare there, and Dallas
22:02
Speaker 1: did outplay them in the game. New Jersey's also hot
22:05
Speaker 1: right now. They've won three in a row, five of
22:08
Speaker 1: their last six. This is going to be one of
22:09
Speaker 1: the better games on the board today or on the
22:13
Speaker 1: slate today, whatever you want to call it. I don't
22:15
Speaker 1: know if Hello Book is going to play yet for... Devils,
22:19
Speaker 1: although first game that he does, I kind of want
22:21
Speaker 1: to fade the Devils because I think he's going to
22:24
Speaker 1: be a little bit rusty because he hasn't played for
22:26
Speaker 1: a while. He is listed on the roster here. He's
22:29
Speaker 1: still out though. He intends to play during this road trip,
22:36
Speaker 1: so we don't know when it's actually going to be though.
22:38
Speaker 1: We will see. By the way, it almost looks like
22:41
Speaker 1: he has devil horns if you look at him with
22:42
Speaker 1: these pointy, not even pointy ears necessarily, but like the
22:47
Speaker 1: The way his hair sticks out, it's like, I don't know,
22:49
Speaker 1: it's almost like he looks like the devil's logo. It's
22:52
Speaker 1: kind of weird, man. Maybe, should I be a fan
22:55
Speaker 1: of Hello Book? I don't know. I am, though. I
22:58
Speaker 1: have his Winnipeg jersey, actually. I've worn it on the
23:01
Speaker 1: show before. I don't know. We'll see. So I want
23:03
Speaker 1: to know, like, hold on. Let me see if, because
23:07
Speaker 1: I look at daily face-off to see the starting goalies here.
23:10
Speaker 1: I want to see who they have predicted as the
23:12
Speaker 1: goalie here. Uh, it looks like they're predicting Jake Allen
23:16
Speaker 1: will be the goalie for other devils today. Uh, the
23:19
Speaker 1: battle of Jake's because that's also Ottinger's name for Dallas.
23:22
Speaker 1: We will see, man. Uh, this game, very, very difficult
23:26
Speaker 1: to handicap, especially if it's not going to be hello books.
23:28
Speaker 1: You can't fade that element of it because I think
23:30
Speaker 1: he will be rusty. The first time he plays after
23:33
Speaker 1: a long layoff, uh, They might not even want to
23:37
Speaker 1: use him in this game, although it's counterintuitive because maybe
23:39
Speaker 1: they're thinking, we do want to use our new elite
23:42
Speaker 1: goalie here in this big game. Maybe they won't. It
23:45
Speaker 1: remains to be seen. It'll be interesting. If somebody finds
23:49
Speaker 1: out that he is playing, then I would lean towards
23:52
Speaker 1: Dallas here. I would lean towards fading Hellebuck if he
23:55
Speaker 1: is playing. Dallas is a small favorite here. I don't
23:59
Speaker 1: really have much of a read on this game otherwise,
24:01
Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, You know, I mean, an
24:04
Speaker 1: under might make sense in this type of game because
24:07
Speaker 1: Dallas plays a lot of unders. There are more unders
24:10
Speaker 1: than overs, I should say, just because of the style
24:12
Speaker 1: of game that they play, which is usually kind of
24:15
Speaker 1: slower and at pace, and they play defense. This is
24:19
Speaker 1: a low total, five and a half, so the odds
24:21
Speaker 1: makers kind of think this will be that type of
24:23
Speaker 1: game as well. I could see that being the case.
24:25
Speaker 1: Although if hella book starts, I actually like it less
24:28
Speaker 1: because I think he'll be, uh, he might, you know, he's,
24:31
Speaker 1: he's going to be rusty potentially. So those are my
24:34
Speaker 1: thoughts on that game. Uh, but big games like that
24:36
Speaker 1: do have a tendency to go under more often than
24:38
Speaker 1: they go over. You know, my hesitancy with unders in
24:41
Speaker 1: the NHL because an empty net goal, they happen so
24:45
Speaker 1: often and they can just ruin everything. So you're almost
24:48
Speaker 1: never going to find me on an NHL under, um,
24:51
Speaker 1: All right, Florida at Winnipeg. We could argue that Florida's
24:54
Speaker 1: coming off a little bit of a scare against the Blackhawks.
24:57
Speaker 1: And like I said, they actually outplayed the Blackhawks quite
25:00
Speaker 1: a bit in that game. They wound up winning the game,
25:02
Speaker 1: escaping with the win. Florida really kind of dominated them.
25:06
Speaker 1: They had the face-off advantage. They hit advantage by a lot.
25:10
Speaker 1: The shot advantage by a lot. So this game wasn't
25:12
Speaker 1: really what it looked like on the scoreboard. So those
25:16
Speaker 1: are two indicators towards Florida here. They were better than
25:18
Speaker 1: it looked in that game. I think they're better than
25:20
Speaker 1: the record looks as well. And they are coming off
25:24
Speaker 1: an escape against kind of a bad team. So they
25:27
Speaker 1: should be a little bit more focused here. And Winnipeg's
25:29
Speaker 1: coming off a game where they played better than the
25:31
Speaker 1: scoreboard looked as well against Montreal. They did lose that game.
25:36
Speaker 1: They've lost five games in a row. I'm not sure
25:38
Speaker 1: this Winnipeg team is really anything great, though. And they're
25:41
Speaker 1: coming off some big games. So, you know, this losing streak...
25:47
Speaker 1: It's not as bad as it looks because every one
25:49
Speaker 1: of the losses is by one goal. Some of the
25:52
Speaker 1: losses are to Carolina, Dallas, Montreal. Those are not bad losses.
25:57
Speaker 1: But it can kind of pile up. These last two
26:00
Speaker 1: games against Dallas and Montreal, when you play two big
26:03
Speaker 1: effort games like that, a lot of times you just
26:04
Speaker 1: won't have a ton left in the tank after that.
26:08
Speaker 1: So maybe that'll be the case here where they kind
26:10
Speaker 1: of run out of steam a little bit here. They
26:12
Speaker 1: got Tampa on deck. Maybe they consider Tampa to be
26:15
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bigger opponent than Florida right
26:18
Speaker 1: now because Tampa's been really good to start the season.
26:22
Speaker 1: Florida is going to play Winnipeg twice in a row,
26:25
Speaker 1: while Winnipeg, I think, has to play Tampa in between
26:28
Speaker 1: those two games, which is a little bit ridiculous. But, yeah,
26:32
Speaker 1: I mean, overall, I think I'm leaning towards Florida here.
26:36
Speaker 1: Florida is a road favorite for a reason. They're around
26:39
Speaker 1: minus 120-something here, even though the records aren't that different
26:42
Speaker 1: between these two teams. But the oddsmakers are telling you
26:44
Speaker 1: Florida is the better team here. I agree with that,
26:49
Speaker 1: and I will lean into that a little bit. I
26:50
Speaker 1: would lean Florida slightly there. Minnesota-Utah, another good game. There's
26:55
Speaker 1: some good hockey games today. This is a good game.
26:58
Speaker 1: These two teams have both been good this season. They're
27:01
Speaker 1: in the same division as well, so this will be
27:03
Speaker 1: an intense game potentially. Minnesota's playing a lot of games
27:08
Speaker 1: in a tight schedule here, although I said that the
27:10
Speaker 1: other day, and they still beat us against Vancouver. They're
27:14
Speaker 1: now playing a third game in four days, fourth game
27:16
Speaker 1: in six days, fifth game in eight days. and a
27:19
Speaker 1: sixth game in 10 days, all in different cities. That's
27:23
Speaker 1: not easy to do, man. They are trying to win
27:26
Speaker 1: the road trip here still, though, so they're 2-2 on
27:28
Speaker 1: the road trip right now. Really 2-1-1, though, so they
27:31
Speaker 1: do have more points than a 2-2 result on the
27:35
Speaker 1: road trip would be because they were able to get
27:37
Speaker 1: a point in the overtime loss against Edmonton. Going into
27:40
Speaker 1: elevation may not be that easy for them either, so... Overall,
27:44
Speaker 1: it looks a little bit negative for Minnesota. Just too
27:47
Speaker 1: many games in quick succession, plus going into elevation might
27:50
Speaker 1: not be that easy. Utah is coming off a big win, though.
27:54
Speaker 1: They just beat Tampa Bay in overtime. Big win for them.
27:58
Speaker 1: They're not going to overlook Minnesota, but you might worry
28:01
Speaker 1: about them being able to sustain an effort like this
28:03
Speaker 1: two games in a row. This is a difficult call.
28:06
Speaker 1: I think both teams are going to show up for this,
28:09
Speaker 1: but they're both in... kind of bad spots in a
28:12
Speaker 1: way where they might be getting fatigued by the end
28:14
Speaker 1: of it. So this game could be more of an over, really.
28:16
Speaker 1: The total is a bit higher at 6.5, possibly for
28:20
Speaker 1: that reason. Utah is a little bit of a favorite here,
28:23
Speaker 1: minus 120-something. So the odds maker is kind of telling you.
28:27
Speaker 1: I think the perception is going to be that Minnesota
28:30
Speaker 1: is the better team here, and I don't really disagree
28:33
Speaker 1: that they are. I think they are, but I think
28:35
Speaker 1: it's close. So I think the odds maker has pretty
28:37
Speaker 1: much got this one right. And the public might look
28:40
Speaker 1: at this and want to take Minnesota at the dog
28:42
Speaker 1: price because Minnesota's, you know, they keep making playoff runs
28:46
Speaker 1: and whatever. And they've just looked like the better team,
28:49
Speaker 1: even though Utah did make the playoffs last year. The
28:52
Speaker 1: public might be siding with Minnesota a little bit here
28:54
Speaker 1: as a dog. Yeah, this is a really tough call.
28:58
Speaker 1: I don't even know if I have that much of
29:00
Speaker 1: an opinion on the side here, to be honest. I
29:02
Speaker 1: worry about the spot that both teams are in. Maybe
29:05
Speaker 1: the lean would be Utah just because Minnesota's schedule is
29:08
Speaker 1: just so packed. But it would be a very, very
29:11
Speaker 1: weak opinion for me in that one. All right, Ottawa
29:15
Speaker 1: and Vegas. This game's not bad either, but Ottawa's got
29:18
Speaker 1: some issues right now because Omar is hurt now. So
29:22
Speaker 1: Omar is going to miss one to two weeks or
29:24
Speaker 1: something like that. So Ottawa is down their top goalie here,
29:28
Speaker 1: so that's not great. So Ottawa may be hurting a
29:32
Speaker 1: little bit as far as the goaltending situation is concerned.
29:35
Speaker 1: Vegas has lost three games in a row now, and
29:38
Speaker 1: I pointed out that Vegas had a win. weak schedule
29:40
Speaker 1: to start the season. But I still think they're not
29:43
Speaker 1: a bad team, dude. I was just saying maybe they're
29:45
Speaker 1: not as good as people think they are. But coming
29:48
Speaker 1: off a couple of losses in a row now, the
29:49
Speaker 1: last two were on the road at St. Louis and Columbus.
29:53
Speaker 1: Not a good road trip for them. They are returning
29:55
Speaker 1: home from a road trip here. So that can be negative.
29:58
Speaker 1: It was only a two-game road trip, so it was
29:59
Speaker 1: a quick road trip. So that makes it less bad, really.
30:04
Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of stuff piling up at
30:06
Speaker 1: home to do necessarily because they haven't been away for
30:08
Speaker 1: that long. Vegas likely will be focused because they're playing
30:12
Speaker 1: a decent Ottawa team here and can't really overlook anybody
30:16
Speaker 1: who lost three games in a row, though they do
30:17
Speaker 1: have New Jersey on deck who have been playing well.
30:20
Speaker 1: But Ottawa's got a good record, too, so they're not
30:22
Speaker 1: really a team we're going to overlook right now. Ottawa,
30:25
Speaker 1: like I said, though, they're down all-mark right now. He's
30:28
Speaker 1: missed the last two games. I think one of them
30:30
Speaker 1: was a scheduled day off for him because he usually
30:35
Speaker 1: goes a few games, then they put in Urson. But
30:38
Speaker 1: he was going to be scheduled to play in their
30:40
Speaker 1: last game, and they had to use Johansson instead. And
30:43
Speaker 1: they didn't do that well, even though they won 7-4
30:46
Speaker 1: against New York. Obviously, they gave up a lot of
30:48
Speaker 1: goals there, so that's not good. Now, they're starting a
30:51
Speaker 1: road trip, though, which usually is a focus spot. So,
30:54
Speaker 1: in this spot, I think I probably do still prefer Ottawa,
30:58
Speaker 1: but Vegas opened around minus 150. They moved up a
31:01
Speaker 1: little bit towards the minus 160 range, so I guess
31:04
Speaker 1: some money did come in on Vegas, but I don't know.
31:07
Speaker 1: I might lean Ottawa slightly here, getting the plus money here, but...
31:11
Speaker 1: Maybe it looks too easy to do that because both
31:14
Speaker 1: teams are sitting at eight and four now. Although I
31:16
Speaker 1: think Vegas gets more like name recognition, sort of like
31:19
Speaker 1: the perception, especially since they made that finals run. I
31:22
Speaker 1: still think the public perception is probably that Vegas is
31:25
Speaker 1: the better team here, but maybe they see both teams
31:28
Speaker 1: at eight and four or whatever and want to lean
31:30
Speaker 1: towards an underdog when it's a bigger price like that.
31:32
Speaker 1: But whenever you have a team returning home against a
31:35
Speaker 1: team starting a road trip, I'm typically going to be
31:38
Speaker 1: leaning towards the team starting a road trip, but I
31:42
Speaker 1: think that is what I would do here and lean
31:44
Speaker 1: towards Ottawa, but there are problems. Like I said, we
31:49
Speaker 1: don't get all-mark here. And also, Ottawa's coming off a
31:53
Speaker 1: win that looked really good where they scored seven goals
31:56
Speaker 1: and Vegas has lost multiple games in a row. I
31:59
Speaker 1: usually like to fade teams that put up a bunch
32:01
Speaker 1: of goals in a high-scoring win in their last game,
32:04
Speaker 1: and I like to play on teams that look bad
32:07
Speaker 1: in their last game and had an ugly loss or something.
32:09
Speaker 1: So that would be an indicator towards Vegas here. And yeah, again,
32:14
Speaker 1: Vegas being favored as heavily as they are, that is
32:16
Speaker 1: the oddsmakers telling you Vegas is still the better of
32:19
Speaker 1: these two teams. So do what you want with all
32:21
Speaker 1: that info. This is a very, very difficult handicap, man.
32:24
Speaker 1: So obvious why that one is not making the cut
32:27
Speaker 1: for me. Vegas and Anaheim, which this is the biggest
32:32
Speaker 1: favorite that we have on the board here. Vancouver. I
32:36
Speaker 1: keep saying the wrong team, man. Vancouver and Anaheim is next.
32:39
Speaker 1: Vancouver's lost tons of games in a row here, man.
32:42
Speaker 1: They haven't won since October 3rd. They actually started out 2-1,
32:47
Speaker 1: and since then it's been all downhill, but they face
32:49
Speaker 1: a difficult schedule, so you can at least give them that.
32:52
Speaker 1: But Vegas may be the worst team in hockey. We
32:55
Speaker 1: don't really know exactly yet, but It's kind of looking
32:57
Speaker 1: that way. Now, they're starting a road trip here, desperately
33:02
Speaker 1: needing a win. So you're going to get them focused
33:04
Speaker 1: at the very least here, most likely. And for Anaheim,
33:08
Speaker 1: Anaheim is returning home from a road trip, a pretty
33:10
Speaker 1: long one that went to the East Coast. So Anaheim
33:13
Speaker 1: is not in a good spot here. They have been
33:17
Speaker 1: on the road since October 19th. So more than a
33:20
Speaker 1: week on the road where they did the New York triad,
33:24
Speaker 1: if you want to call it that, and then Philadelphia.
33:26
Speaker 1: So they stayed in basically the same area, but it
33:28
Speaker 1: was still an East Coast trip, and now they're returning
33:30
Speaker 1: home from that. And they got a team they might
33:32
Speaker 1: pay more attention to on deck with Buffalo, and that
33:35
Speaker 1: game's going to be a Hulu game. So I think
33:37
Speaker 1: that is a look ahead to Buffalo here. I'm going
33:40
Speaker 1: to have to lean towards Vancouver in this one. Now,
33:43
Speaker 1: Anaheim did just end a five-game losing streak with that
33:45
Speaker 1: win over Philadelphia, so sometimes that will give you momentum
33:49
Speaker 1: after you end a bad losing streak like that. Anaheim
33:52
Speaker 1: is starting to flip the script again, and I think
33:55
Speaker 1: they are better than the record looks. But yeah, in
33:59
Speaker 1: a spot like this at this price where Anaheim's about
34:01
Speaker 1: minus 200, and they did drop a little bit from
34:04
Speaker 1: minus 211, I think the only move here is to
34:06
Speaker 1: take Vancouver. Maybe take them on the puck line. I
34:09
Speaker 1: know I tried to the other day, and it was
34:12
Speaker 1: not good. I'll leave it off the card here today,
34:15
Speaker 1: but I think this is one of the better hockey
34:19
Speaker 1: opinions on the board here. I like the Islanders more
34:23
Speaker 1: than this, but I think if you go down to
34:25
Speaker 1: what would be my next strongest play, unfortunately, I think
34:28
Speaker 1: it would be this one. Taking Vancouver. I guess plus
34:32
Speaker 1: one and a half pucks, plus one and a half
34:35
Speaker 1: goals or whatever. I guess you could split the bet.
34:38
Speaker 1: Split bet, puck line, money line. I think that might
34:40
Speaker 1: be the way to get the price down into the
34:42
Speaker 1: best range. Because I think if you just play the
34:44
Speaker 1: puck line, you're still going to have to lay like
34:45
Speaker 1: minus 150 or something. Although you could do that too.
34:48
Speaker 1: That is an option. But yeah, I would be leaning
34:51
Speaker 1: towards Vancouver in that one, in some sort of puck
34:53
Speaker 1: line situation. Then the final game is the other game
34:57
Speaker 1: in the ESPN doubleheader, which is Not a horrible game.
35:01
Speaker 1: Buffalo at San Jose. These are both interesting teams. They're
35:04
Speaker 1: both decent teams. Buffalo is coming off an overtime loss
35:09
Speaker 1: at Washington, but the problem is now they're having to
35:11
Speaker 1: go out to the West Coast for a late-night game.
35:14
Speaker 1: You know I don't like this. When teams go from
35:16
Speaker 1: east to west, they have to adjust their bio clocks
35:20
Speaker 1: three hours different, and for a late game, it's tough
35:24
Speaker 1: because you're going to be playing... the game up until
35:26
Speaker 1: past midnight on your biological clock, and you could definitely
35:30
Speaker 1: get fatigued, so that's going to be a negative, especially
35:33
Speaker 1: for an East Coast team that's not really totally used
35:35
Speaker 1: to doing that, like Buffalo, and they're coming off kind
35:38
Speaker 1: of a big game where they took Washington into overtime,
35:41
Speaker 1: so the spot does not look good to me for
35:44
Speaker 1: Buffalo here. However, San Jose is also not in a
35:47
Speaker 1: good spot. They're returning home from a road trip, and
35:49
Speaker 1: they're coming back from the East Coast as well. They
35:52
Speaker 1: were on the East Coast. They've had a long road trip.
35:55
Speaker 1: They've been on for almost two weeks. They've been on
35:57
Speaker 1: the road since October 15th. It looks like I believe
36:00
Speaker 1: they split the road trip here. They went three and
36:04
Speaker 1: three or three, two and one basically on the road trip.
36:06
Speaker 1: So a decent road trip for San Jose, not an
36:09
Speaker 1: easy road trip to do. But now returning home from
36:12
Speaker 1: all that. It's not a good spot, man. Unfortunately, if
36:15
Speaker 1: you want to fade San Jose, they only have Vancouver next,
36:18
Speaker 1: so they're not going to be looking ahead to that.
36:20
Speaker 1: And they did not play Buffalo during that road trip.
36:22
Speaker 1: Even though they were in that general area geographically, they
36:25
Speaker 1: did not play Buffalo during the road trip. Kind of strangely,
36:29
Speaker 1: they did not. I think Buffalo, I don't know, was
36:32
Speaker 1: Buffalo on the road during the point where they might have?
36:35
Speaker 1: I don't know, but whatever. It's still a bad spot
36:38
Speaker 1: for San Jose. Again, the return home spot, it could
36:40
Speaker 1: be a distraction. You've got stuff to do once you
36:43
Speaker 1: return back home. And they have to do the same
36:45
Speaker 1: thing that Buffalo is doing, transitioning three time zones over
36:49
Speaker 1: for a late-night game, which is going to mess your
36:51
Speaker 1: biological clock. You've got to play up until past midnight
36:56
Speaker 1: based on what your bio clock is now used to.
36:59
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be more negative for Buffalo, though,
37:01
Speaker 1: because at least San Jose is a West Coast team,
37:04
Speaker 1: so they're at least more used to doing this type
37:06
Speaker 1: of travel than Buffalo is. So I think Buffalo makes
37:09
Speaker 1: out a little bit more negatively. as far as that's concerned,
37:12
Speaker 1: but Buffalo's not starting a road trip, but it's the
37:16
Speaker 1: second game of a road trip, and crossing the country
37:18
Speaker 1: probably makes it almost feel like it's the start of
37:20
Speaker 1: a road trip, so focus-wise, I think Buffalo does get
37:24
Speaker 1: the edge there as far as how focused these teams
37:26
Speaker 1: might be here. This is a tough call, dude, very,
37:29
Speaker 1: very tough call. I think this game may be an
37:32
Speaker 1: over again, six and a half. Again, you have a
37:35
Speaker 1: pretty high total here, and it is juiced to the over, too,
37:37
Speaker 1: so it's one of the highest totals you're going to
37:39
Speaker 1: get in hockey, but I think it's that way for
37:41
Speaker 1: a reason. I don't think either team is that spectacular
37:45
Speaker 1: goaltending-wise and anything like that, so we could definitely see
37:49
Speaker 1: some goals here. When teams may be unfocused and or
37:54
Speaker 1: might be messed up trying to transition time zones or whatever,
37:59
Speaker 1: it could affect the defense. Really, I don't know. The
38:01
Speaker 1: time zone transition might affect the offense a little bit,
38:04
Speaker 1: so that would worry me a little bit, but I
38:05
Speaker 1: think a lot of the A lot of the things
38:08
Speaker 1: about the negative situations affect the defense more, though. So
38:12
Speaker 1: the defenses may lapse a little bit here. So I
38:15
Speaker 1: still think the over may be the way to play
38:16
Speaker 1: this game. As far as the side, it's a difficult call. Buffalo,
38:21
Speaker 1: very interestingly, is at minus 140. I did not expect that.
38:25
Speaker 1: I think these teams are fairly close to evenly matched,
38:29
Speaker 1: but I would trust the odds makers on that, though.
38:32
Speaker 1: They know more than I do, and lining Buffalo is
38:35
Speaker 1: a big favorite here. I don't entirely get it. I
38:38
Speaker 1: don't really know why, but that is the case. So
38:42
Speaker 1: do what you want with that info. But yeah, the
38:44
Speaker 1: odds makers are telling you Buffalo is the significantly better
38:47
Speaker 1: team here. And it is still San Jose returning home
38:49
Speaker 1: from a long road trip. And you know me, basically
38:52
Speaker 1: my default behavior is fade the team returning home from
38:55
Speaker 1: a long road trip. So I guess when you put
38:57
Speaker 1: all of that stuff in the blender, I guess I
38:59
Speaker 1: would have to lean Buffalo in that game. But yeah, that's...
39:03
Speaker 1: That is not a game I want anything to do with. So, yeah,
39:08
Speaker 1: that's what I got on that. Unless I start playing
39:10
Speaker 1: totals again, then maybe. And hold on. Did I miss
39:14
Speaker 1: anything here? Oh, one thing I forgot to mention. The
39:18
Speaker 1: LA Kings are in a back-to-back. I can't believe I
39:21
Speaker 1: forgot to mention it. They're the only team playing today
39:23
Speaker 1: on a back-to-back. So that kind of boosts the opinion
39:28
Speaker 1: on Chicago. I think I leaned to Chicago. in that
39:30
Speaker 1: game slightly, right? That would kind of boost the argument
39:34
Speaker 1: for Chicago a little bit, but then again, that means
39:36
Speaker 1: you're going to get a worse number on Chicago. Like,
39:40
Speaker 1: the oddsmakers, a lot of times they overreact to the
39:42
Speaker 1: rest situation, to the back-to-backs and stuff, so they're going
39:45
Speaker 1: to make LA less of a favorite, maybe a little
39:48
Speaker 1: bit too much because of the back-to-back, but either way,
39:51
Speaker 1: I still kind of lean Chicago in that one. All right,
39:53
Speaker 1: and speaking of rest, as we're going to transition over
39:56
Speaker 1: to the NBA, that was part of the reason why
39:58
Speaker 1: I think it was the Cavs were... as big of
40:03
Speaker 1: a favorite as they were yesterday. And they wound up
40:05
Speaker 1: not covering, by the way. They won in overtime and
40:07
Speaker 1: didn't cover. So one of my other leans did not
40:09
Speaker 1: work out yesterday. The Bulls didn't work out at all either.
40:13
Speaker 1: Celtics just manhandled them, which, you know, like I said,
40:16
Speaker 1: it doesn't shock me that that happened, but that looked
40:18
Speaker 1: like one of those spots where the Celtics don't show
40:21
Speaker 1: up focused. But maybe because it's a new roster, still
40:24
Speaker 1: trying to get, you know... You'd think with the new
40:27
Speaker 1: roster for the Celtics, though, they'd be more actually apt to...
40:31
Speaker 1: have a sort of weird letdown spot like that, though,
40:34
Speaker 1: with the team chemistry not there, but whatever. Maybe because
40:37
Speaker 1: it's early in the season, they wanted to still show
40:39
Speaker 1: up focused or whatever. Who knows? But that Bulls team
40:42
Speaker 1: is also real bad. But that looked like one of
40:45
Speaker 1: those spots. The Celtics, I know, because I follow the team,
40:49
Speaker 1: and I also give out betting plays and whatever. The Celtics...
40:55
Speaker 1: that tends to be the situation where they have like
40:58
Speaker 1: their worst games or they're coming off a big game.
41:00
Speaker 1: They're at home against some really bad team. They just
41:03
Speaker 1: tend to look right past that team. So it looked
41:05
Speaker 1: like one of those spots, but that didn't happen yesterday. So, uh, interesting. Anyway,
41:10
Speaker 1: we will get to the NBA in a second here.
41:13
Speaker 1: Let me bring it up here. But yeah, the, what
41:16
Speaker 1: I was saying is that the, um, The Cavs were
41:18
Speaker 1: like a three and a half point favorite partially because
41:20
Speaker 1: Minnesota was on a back-to-back, so I forgot to make
41:22
Speaker 1: that really clear yesterday, I guess. So that was part
41:25
Speaker 1: of the reason why the Cavs were lined as heavily
41:28
Speaker 1: as they were. I was talking with Saab in the
41:31
Speaker 1: chat about He mentioned ball, missing a game or something,
41:35
Speaker 1: or possibly missing one, but I think he was talking
41:37
Speaker 1: about one of the previous games. I was very confused
41:40
Speaker 1: and getting ornery again on the show. All right, I'm
41:44
Speaker 1: going to go into the hydration break here. When we
41:46
Speaker 1: come back, we're going to be talking about four NBA games.
41:50
Speaker 1: There's going to be some college football, and we're going
41:52
Speaker 1: to talk about the World Series as well after the
41:56
Speaker 1: hydration break.
41:58
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.
43:58
Speaker 1: All right. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
44:04
Speaker 1: All right. NBA. I am going to have one play
44:07
Speaker 1: in the NBA here. It is not going to be
44:08
Speaker 1: on this first game between... brooklyn and my boston celtics
44:13
Speaker 1: celtics are on a back-to-back although they they really probably
44:17
Speaker 1: didn't have to put in that much of an effort
44:18
Speaker 1: yesterday and that absolute blowout of the chicago bulls yesterday
44:22
Speaker 1: uh the celtics tend to have issues with the brooklyn
44:25
Speaker 1: nets though i don't entirely know why but in these
44:28
Speaker 1: recent seasons the celtics have just overlooked them or something
44:32
Speaker 1: i don't know what the deal is um I don't
44:35
Speaker 1: know if they're going to do that here because their
44:36
Speaker 1: next opponent is also Chicago again, but that was a
44:38
Speaker 1: very satisfying win probably for the Celtics because it was
44:42
Speaker 1: a blowout. Now they're on a back-to-back. Maybe the Celtics
44:46
Speaker 1: look a little bit too good off of that. Brooklyn
44:48
Speaker 1: is going to come in here with a little bit
44:49
Speaker 1: of rest at least here. Probably would not be laying
44:53
Speaker 1: the points of the Celtics in this one. Brooklyn's still
44:56
Speaker 1: desperate for their first win. They got annihilated in their
44:59
Speaker 1: last game, but that was a win I gave out
45:00
Speaker 1: on the show. with the Indiana Pacers, who were coming
45:03
Speaker 1: off getting upset as a favorite, whereas Brooklyn was coming
45:07
Speaker 1: off that ridiculous comeback against Cleveland, which was also a
45:10
Speaker 1: win for us on the show, by the way. So
45:13
Speaker 1: my gauge on the Brooklyn Nets has been pretty good
45:16
Speaker 1: so far. So this looks like it might be kind
45:18
Speaker 1: of a bounce back for Brooklyn. They're going to be
45:21
Speaker 1: focused here. They're going to try to put in an
45:23
Speaker 1: effort against the Celtics. Brooklyn at least has a day
45:25
Speaker 1: of rest. They're coming off a blowout loss. Celtics coming
45:28
Speaker 1: off a blowout win yesterday, so... Brooklyn would be the
45:32
Speaker 1: lean here in this game, plus the 11.5 or whatever
45:35
Speaker 1: it is here. It's also a low total in the
45:37
Speaker 1: low 220s because the Celtics do play that style. As
45:41
Speaker 1: you saw yesterday, Chicago could not do anything offensively in
45:45
Speaker 1: that game. The Celtics will... kind of try to grind
45:49
Speaker 1: you down, even though they're known for scoring because they
45:51
Speaker 1: take a ton of threes, but the Celtics actually play slow.
45:54
Speaker 1: They're one of the slowest-paced teams. They play half-court, and
45:58
Speaker 1: they try to find good open three-pointers. I mean, they
46:01
Speaker 1: do try to score in transition, too, and may be
46:05
Speaker 1: trying to do a little bit more of that with
46:06
Speaker 1: Paul George, the steel master there now, but still, yeah, like...
46:13
Speaker 1: The fact that it's potentially going to be another lowest
46:16
Speaker 1: scoring game, that also helps the case for the underdog,
46:18
Speaker 1: although I said that yesterday, too. I think this total
46:21
Speaker 1: is a lot lower than it was yesterday, though. But yeah,
46:23
Speaker 1: Brooklyn would be my lean in that game, plus the points.
46:26
Speaker 1: Next game is going to be my play. This is, yeah,
46:29
Speaker 1: people are not going to like this one.
46:30
Speaker 3: You want to know what I'm betting?
46:36
Speaker 1: I think I have to do this, man. We're going
46:38
Speaker 1: to lay the three and a half with the New
46:40
Speaker 1: York Knicks against the Detroit Pistons. They're the returning champs, man.
46:45
Speaker 1: The Knicks and their own three to start the season.
46:50
Speaker 1: That makes me like this even more because who's going
46:52
Speaker 1: to want to lay this with an 0-3 team against
46:55
Speaker 1: a 3-0 team. And yes, I realize Detroit's 2-0 on
46:58
Speaker 1: the road. Knicks are 0-2 at home. Who's going to
47:01
Speaker 1: want to do this? Nobody's going to want to lay
47:04
Speaker 1: points with an 0-3 against a 3-0. I know the
47:07
Speaker 1: Knicks won the championship, but everybody's recency biased, man. You
47:11
Speaker 1: know what I mean? So, yeah, this is going to
47:15
Speaker 1: be the reaction from the public, I'm pretty sure, is
47:18
Speaker 1: going to be to take the points with Detroit here.
47:20
Speaker 1: Oh my god, an undefeated team getting points against a
47:23
Speaker 1: team that's winless? Yeah, let's take the points.
47:26
Speaker 2: No.
47:27
Speaker 3: No.
47:28
Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are still telling you the Knicks are the
47:30
Speaker 1: better team. I'm going to agree with that. Both teams
47:33
Speaker 1: have faced a somewhat difficult schedule, so I'll give you that.
47:37
Speaker 1: Quite difficult, actually. Detroit's wins are not bad at all.
47:40
Speaker 1: Winning at the 76ers in their last game, which I'll
47:42
Speaker 1: talk about in a minute. Detroit had that huge comeback
47:45
Speaker 1: against the Celtics in the first game. They had what
47:47
Speaker 1: I thought was a sandwich spot, and we took the heat.
47:50
Speaker 1: The only team that's beaten me, the fucking heat, 0-2
47:54
Speaker 1: playing the heat this year. Thanks a lot, Miami. They
47:57
Speaker 1: couldn't beat Detroit in the sandwich spot. Detroit had the
48:00
Speaker 1: Sixers on deck. But now this is the situation, man.
48:04
Speaker 1: Detroit's coming off a double-digit win over the 76ers. Come on, man.
48:08
Speaker 1: That's a huge win for Detroit here. I know the
48:11
Speaker 1: Knicks are a big opponent, too. The Knicks won the
48:13
Speaker 1: championship last year. We all know that. But you're going
48:16
Speaker 1: to ask Detroit to play another game on the road,
48:20
Speaker 1: two games in three days also, against two really good
48:24
Speaker 1: teams and keep that effort throughout that entire thing? I
48:27
Speaker 1: don't really see that happening. And the Knicks, you know
48:31
Speaker 1: they're going to be desperate for a win here. Their
48:33
Speaker 1: own three... They're going to start getting some wins. This
48:36
Speaker 1: Knicks team is still one of the best teams. They've
48:38
Speaker 1: faced a difficult schedule, too. They started out the season
48:41
Speaker 1: losing to Philadelphia, which, by the way, that's going to
48:43
Speaker 1: be another thing that the recreational guys are going to
48:47
Speaker 1: do as far as handicapping this. The common opponent. Sometimes
48:50
Speaker 1: I forget to mention the common opponent angle. I don't
48:53
Speaker 1: think it's that big of a deal, but it's another...
48:55
Speaker 1: thing to add to the mix here, especially with few
48:58
Speaker 1: games having been played so far. People are going to
49:00
Speaker 1: look at this, oh, the Knicks lost to the Sixers,
49:03
Speaker 1: and Detroit just beat the Sixers by double digits on
49:07
Speaker 1: the road, by the way. The Knicks lost that game
49:09
Speaker 1: at home. Detroit won in Philly, so the public's going
49:12
Speaker 1: to look at that and think, that's even better for Detroit.
49:15
Speaker 1: If Detroit can win in Philly and the Knicks can't
49:17
Speaker 1: even beat them at home, then of course Detroit going
49:20
Speaker 1: to cover as an underdog here, right? That's what they're
49:22
Speaker 1: going to think. No. It doesn't work that way. Oh,
49:26
Speaker 1: and we have another common opponent, because the Knicks also
49:28
Speaker 1: lost at the Celtics, and Detroit beat them, although that
49:32
Speaker 1: was at home for Detroit, but the public might look
49:34
Speaker 1: at that too. Oh, yeah, Detroit also beat the Celtics,
49:37
Speaker 1: and the Knicks didn't beat them. So another thing, like,
49:40
Speaker 1: how could the Knicks possibly cover this, let alone win
49:45
Speaker 1: the game? How could they possibly cover this number? It
49:47
Speaker 1: looks ridiculous, right? Two common opponents. Yeah, like, The public
49:52
Speaker 1: is only going to go one way with this. I
49:53
Speaker 1: think Detroit's going to be a public underdog in this one.
49:56
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a red flag. We
49:58
Speaker 1: don't see the percentages, but I'm usually able to gauge
50:00
Speaker 1: where the public is going to be pretty well. And
50:02
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a public dog situation
50:05
Speaker 1: on Detroit here. The public dog is a red flag, man,
50:09
Speaker 1: because again, it's the public wanting a team that isn't
50:11
Speaker 1: even supposed to win the game. That's bad. I think
50:14
Speaker 1: the Knicks are going to finally take care of business
50:16
Speaker 1: now that they just played badly again. Another win for
50:19
Speaker 1: us on the show with the Orlando Magic the other day,
50:21
Speaker 1: by the way. Knicks are staying at home off of that,
50:24
Speaker 1: and that was a bad loss for the Knicks. They're
50:26
Speaker 1: coming off getting upset as like seven and a half
50:28
Speaker 1: point favorites there by an Orlando team that was out
50:31
Speaker 1: without their best player as well, Bonchero, Bonchero, however you
50:35
Speaker 1: want to pronounce his name. Banquero, however you pronounce his name,
50:40
Speaker 1: First game that he was down, that made me like
50:41
Speaker 1: Orlando even more because it was the injured player theory
50:44
Speaker 1: spot for them. But it was a sandwich for the Knicks.
50:46
Speaker 1: They were coming off those monster efforts against Philly and Boston, which,
50:50
Speaker 1: by the way, they almost won both of those games,
50:53
Speaker 1: the Knicks. Those games were really close, so the Knicks
50:55
Speaker 1: are not playing poorly here. In fact, their worst performance
50:58
Speaker 1: was that one against Orlando. And even in that one,
51:01
Speaker 1: I think Orlando had to make a late run to
51:04
Speaker 1: win that game. I think the Knicks were winning that
51:06
Speaker 1: game throughout most of the game, although it was close.
51:09
Speaker 1: Orlando was kind of hanging around that number most of
51:12
Speaker 1: the game and then made that late run to win
51:14
Speaker 1: the game. But yeah, the Knicks had the lead for
51:16
Speaker 1: I think the majority of that game. So the Knicks
51:19
Speaker 1: have played better than maybe you think. They've definitely played
51:22
Speaker 1: better than the 0-3 record suggests. That was a bad
51:25
Speaker 1: spot for them. After playing those huge games against Philly
51:28
Speaker 1: and Boston, sandwich spot for sure against Orlando, down their
51:32
Speaker 1: best player again with Detroit on deck. That's why I
51:35
Speaker 1: gave it out as a play, and it was correct.
51:37
Speaker 1: But now we zigzagged that whole thing, and we're going
51:39
Speaker 1: to play the Knicks here in this one. There's enough
51:42
Speaker 1: here that I like this one, even though it's not
51:44
Speaker 1: going to be a sandwich spot for us. for Detroit
51:49
Speaker 1: or anything like that. Detroit's not going to overlook the Knicks.
51:51
Speaker 1: That's not what I'm saying. I just think that the
51:55
Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you that the records are really misleading here.
51:58
Speaker 1: I think the Knicks are actually at a little bit
51:59
Speaker 1: of a cheap price here, to be honest. I think
52:02
Speaker 1: if the records weren't what they were, if this was
52:04
Speaker 1: the first game of the season, I think the Knicks
52:06
Speaker 1: would be like a five-point favorite here. That's what I'm saying.
52:09
Speaker 1: Or maybe even more. Because the Knicks were four and
52:11
Speaker 1: a half against Philly. And Philly's better than Detroit, so... Um,
52:16
Speaker 1: even though I know Detroit beat Philly and I was
52:18
Speaker 1: correct about that game too, not a winner for me
52:20
Speaker 1: on the show, but yeah, I gotta, I gotta pump
52:23
Speaker 1: up my wins, man. Even though I'll mention my losses too,
52:25
Speaker 1: although that one wasn't actually a win, it was a
52:27
Speaker 1: correct lean. I'm, I'm rambling on this, but yeah, I
52:31
Speaker 1: like this game. We're I don't know if I have
52:36
Speaker 1: anything else on this one at this point, but yeah.
52:40
Speaker 1: I think I got everything, right? So yeah, it's definitely
52:43
Speaker 1: a bounce-back spot for the Knicks. It's a continued effort
52:46
Speaker 1: spot for Detroit that doesn't look particularly good. And by
52:48
Speaker 1: the way, Detroit against the Celtics, they did have to
52:51
Speaker 1: make a huge comeback in that game, so that was
52:53
Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. The Knicks actually kind of played
52:56
Speaker 1: better against the Celtics, even though the Knicks lost to
52:58
Speaker 1: the Celtics. I think the Knicks were winning that game
53:01
Speaker 1: against the Celtics for quite a while. And the Knicks, yeah,
53:04
Speaker 1: one of them barely losing that game at the end.
53:07
Speaker 1: But for Detroit, they were losing by 22 to the Celtics.
53:10
Speaker 1: And the Celtics just had this major lapse. And Detroit
53:13
Speaker 1: somehow won that game because the Celtics collapsed. But I
53:17
Speaker 1: would say the Knicks put up a better showing against
53:19
Speaker 1: the Celtics than Detroit did. Even though the Knicks lost
53:22
Speaker 1: and Detroit won, those results are misleading. So that's another
53:26
Speaker 1: feather in the cap here for this. We're going to
53:27
Speaker 1: lay the points at the Knicks. Um, that'll be my
53:30
Speaker 1: last play that I give out on the show. Tower
53:32
Speaker 1: gang NPC. What's up, man? Thanks for hanging out. All right. Um,
53:37
Speaker 1: the next game is Sacramento, San Antonio. This is the
53:40
Speaker 1: least interesting game here. The Sacramento team, man, they're bad.
53:45
Speaker 1: They're just bad. I don't know what else to tell you. Um,
53:49
Speaker 1: will they cover a huge number here? I mean, yeah
53:51
Speaker 1: sure it's possible i wouldn't want to have my money
53:54
Speaker 1: on it uh sacramento is oh and three nobody's gonna
53:56
Speaker 1: want them they actually were reasonably competitive in their last
54:00
Speaker 1: two games so those are both at home their one
54:02
Speaker 1: road game they got annihilated by the clippers and now
54:05
Speaker 1: they have to play the spurs which is obviously going
54:07
Speaker 1: to be the best team they've had to face so
54:09
Speaker 1: far uh they do have one day off after losing
54:12
Speaker 1: at home to memphis san antonio uh San Antonio, surprisingly,
54:17
Speaker 1: is 1-2, but we know San Antonio's a really good team.
54:20
Speaker 1: They played a difficult schedule to start the season. They
54:23
Speaker 1: lost to Oklahoma City and Houston. Those are good teams,
54:27
Speaker 1: so there's no real shame in that. They got a
54:30
Speaker 1: win against a team they were supposed to beat, even
54:32
Speaker 1: though they were on a back-to-back. They beat Dallas anyway.
54:35
Speaker 1: San Antonio's sort of done what they're supposed to do,
54:39
Speaker 1: even though they're better than Houston. I don't think they're
54:41
Speaker 1: better than Oklahoma City. We won on Oklahoma City here
54:44
Speaker 1: on the show as well to kick off the season.
54:47
Speaker 1: San Antonio is better than Houston, but I'm not surprised
54:49
Speaker 1: that they lost to Houston either. But they beat the
54:52
Speaker 1: team they were obviously supposed to beat in Dallas. Now
54:55
Speaker 1: they have some momentum here. They have a couple of
54:57
Speaker 1: days off. I'd actually probably lay the points here with
55:00
Speaker 1: San Antonio. A couple of days off, new momentum after
55:03
Speaker 1: winning that first game. They don't have a big game
55:05
Speaker 1: on deck. They play Utah tomorrow. They have to travel
55:08
Speaker 1: to Utah. That one might be a little bit of
55:10
Speaker 1: a trickier spot going into elevation because then they have
55:13
Speaker 1: a big game after that against Minnesota. And Minnesota's really
55:16
Speaker 1: going to get up for that because I believe that's
55:19
Speaker 1: a revenge game. from Minnesota. I think San Antonio eliminated
55:22
Speaker 1: them from the playoffs last year, if I remember correctly.
55:27
Speaker 1: San Antonio's an 18.5 point favor here. They've gone up
55:30
Speaker 1: from 17, but yeah, I think I would actually lay
55:32
Speaker 1: the points in this game if I was going to
55:34
Speaker 1: do anything with it. It looks maybe too easy, but
55:37
Speaker 1: maybe not, because San Antonio's a 1-2 team, but yeah,
55:40
Speaker 1: they're the better team, the more battle-tested team. There's no
55:44
Speaker 1: reason to trust Sacramento right now to even cover a number,
55:48
Speaker 1: so those are my thoughts there, and then The Detroit-New
55:52
Speaker 1: York game, by the way, is on NBC, and NBC
55:54
Speaker 1: has a doubleheader with NBC and Peacock having the late
55:57
Speaker 1: game 11 p.m. between Portland and the LA Lakers, which
56:01
Speaker 1: I believe both these teams are staying on the Pacific Coast,
56:04
Speaker 1: so I think that's not a big deal. This thing
56:07
Speaker 1: would actually load for me, stupid ESPN. This game is
56:11
Speaker 1: going to be interesting because the Lakers are only two
56:13
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite here. They've gone down from
56:15
Speaker 1: three and a half to two and a half. And
56:16
Speaker 1: I looked and I don't think there's any injury or
56:18
Speaker 1: anything here. So very, very interesting. The odds makers are
56:21
Speaker 1: telling you LA is not that much better than Portland,
56:24
Speaker 1: which seems crazy. Portland is getting this much respect now.
56:29
Speaker 1: I mean, they're a decent team. They made the playoffs
56:31
Speaker 1: last year. Are they all of a sudden this much
56:34
Speaker 1: of a contending team? Or maybe the oddsmakers are kind
56:37
Speaker 1: of telling you the Lakers are kind of a mid-team, really,
56:40
Speaker 1: and not as good as their record indicates. The Lakers
56:42
Speaker 1: are off to a 3-0 start. But I might agree
56:46
Speaker 1: with that sentiment more, though. The Lakers, because of their
56:49
Speaker 1: name and because they're 3-0, and because they have Luka,
56:52
Speaker 1: the people might have them as this upper echelon team,
56:55
Speaker 1: but I still don't think they are. They're a really
56:57
Speaker 1: good offense, but I still think they're very questionable defensively.
57:01
Speaker 1: And I still think they're... Yeah, like one of those
57:04
Speaker 1: teams that might be like, you know, a four or
57:06
Speaker 1: five seed playoff type of team and, you know, just
57:09
Speaker 1: see what they could do pretty much.
57:11
Speaker 3: Portland.
57:12
Speaker 1: Portland's undefeated as well. They're 2-1-0, although their wins are
57:16
Speaker 1: kind of less impressive. I mean, they did blow out
57:18
Speaker 1: the Suns, which is not unimpressive. They're not that bad
57:20
Speaker 1: of a team. And then they went on the road,
57:22
Speaker 1: and they didn't beat the Kings by that much. That's
57:25
Speaker 1: not an impressive game, but still, Portland, not a good
57:27
Speaker 1: spot for them there because they were coming off a
57:29
Speaker 1: blowout win, and they had the Lakers on deck. So
57:31
Speaker 1: I think Portland probably looked right past the Kings there.
57:34
Speaker 1: Neither of these teams played yesterday. I think the only
57:38
Speaker 1: back-to-back we have today is... I already mentioned it, and
57:43
Speaker 1: I forget, the Celtics, right? Yeah, I think that's the
57:44
Speaker 1: only back-to-back here today. I'm pretty sure. Yeah. And the
57:50
Speaker 1: Lakers are coming off beating Utah, I believe, in their
57:53
Speaker 1: last game. That was a weird game where Utah scored
57:56
Speaker 1: a ton of points early in the game, and Utah
57:58
Speaker 1: had a big lead in the game, and the Lakers
58:01
Speaker 1: just chipped away at it and wound up not only winning,
58:03
Speaker 1: but covering at the end of that game, which is ridiculous.
58:06
Speaker 1: I had to lean towards the Jazz in that one,
58:08
Speaker 1: and I think the Jazz should have covered that. But yeah,
58:10
Speaker 1: the Lakers are 3-0, but it's It's not a good 3-0.
58:14
Speaker 1: I mean, they beat that depleted old Warriors team who
58:18
Speaker 1: I don't even think they have a win yet, so
58:21
Speaker 1: that's not that impressive at all. They beat the Clippers.
58:24
Speaker 1: Clippers are ass. That's not impressive either. And then, like
58:27
Speaker 1: I said, they beat the Jazz, which, okay, the Jazz
58:30
Speaker 1: are kind of an up-and-coming team, and that was in Utah.
58:33
Speaker 1: Not easy to play in there in high elevation. But
58:36
Speaker 1: the Lakers didn't play that well in that game. The
58:38
Speaker 1: final score was kind of misleading. The Lakers were losing
58:42
Speaker 1: for a lot of that game. So, Lakers haven't really
58:44
Speaker 1: been that impressive here. And it looks too easy to
58:47
Speaker 1: me to play the Lakers at the 2.5. So, I
58:50
Speaker 1: like Portland in this one. Yeah, it looks like some
58:54
Speaker 1: of the money did come in that way a little bit. Very,
58:56
Speaker 1: very interesting. The Lakers are not favored by as much
58:59
Speaker 1: as you would think here. So, Portland would be the
59:01
Speaker 1: lean for me there. All right. Let's go to, World
59:06
Speaker 1: Series next. This game is hard to figure out because
59:10
Speaker 1: Milwaukee has not decided on a starter yet. Tampa Bay
59:13
Speaker 1: is in complete desperation mode now. They got blown out
59:16
Speaker 1: 10-1 yesterday. Now, like I said at the top of
59:19
Speaker 1: the show, I got the over correct in the game yesterday.
59:22
Speaker 1: Didn't make it a play or anything, but what I
59:24
Speaker 1: didn't expect was that it would all be one-sided like
59:26
Speaker 1: that with Milwaukee. I thought we'd get some runs from
59:28
Speaker 1: both teams there. that wasn't the case. Um, I did
59:32
Speaker 1: warn you that Freddie Peralta had really bad numbers against
59:35
Speaker 1: Milwaukee and, uh, his walk rate was bad in the
59:38
Speaker 1: post season. He did not have a good game yesterday. So,
59:41
Speaker 1: and Gasser was better than, uh, expected, but Gasser has
59:44
Speaker 1: been good in the playoffs. Like these young pitchers from Milwaukee,
59:49
Speaker 1: they're getting the job done, even though Mizurowski has been
59:51
Speaker 1: a little bit shaky, but they're still getting the job
59:53
Speaker 1: done here in the playoffs. Um, So, yeah, now we
59:57
Speaker 1: have a 3-0 Milwaukee lead here, and we know the
1:00:00
Speaker 1: whole thing. When teams are down 0-3, they don't win
1:00:03
Speaker 1: in baseball, unless you're the Red Sox against the Yankees.
1:00:07
Speaker 1: But that was a unique situation, man. It was just,
1:00:11
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to say a heated rivalry.
1:00:13
Speaker 1: The Red Sox have heated rivalry souvenir cups now, those
1:00:18
Speaker 1: little thermos cups that they have now or whatever, the
1:00:20
Speaker 1: cooler cups. They have one for that stupid show, heated rivalry.
1:00:25
Speaker 1: which is about gay hockey players or something. What are
1:00:28
Speaker 1: we doing here, man? What are we doing? Just give
1:00:31
Speaker 1: me a break with that shit. But whatever, I'm going
1:00:33
Speaker 1: off on a tangent. Red Sox, huge rivalry with the Yankees.
1:00:37
Speaker 1: A lot of hatred there, especially back then, 0-3, 0-4.
1:00:41
Speaker 1: There was a revenge motive for the Red Sox as well.
1:00:44
Speaker 1: That was, yeah, there was just something there. It was
1:00:47
Speaker 1: just a thing, man. I think that was a really
1:00:49
Speaker 1: unique situation where the Red Sox were able to get
1:00:52
Speaker 1: that done. This is not that. So yeah, I don't
1:00:56
Speaker 1: think Tampa's going to come back and win this series,
1:00:58
Speaker 1: but we have to figure out, will they win this
1:01:00
Speaker 1: game tonight? Will they stay alive? I mean, you have
1:01:04
Speaker 1: to figure out what their mental state is going to be, right?
1:01:06
Speaker 1: When you go down 0-3, you might just be totally
1:01:10
Speaker 1: deflated and think that it's over, right? So you might
1:01:13
Speaker 1: give up. But you also might just be in, you know,
1:01:18
Speaker 1: you might play totally loose and be like, whatever, we
1:01:20
Speaker 1: have nothing to lose now. Like the Red Sox kind
1:01:22
Speaker 1: of did and go out and win this game. You
1:01:24
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Just focus on winning this one game.
1:01:26
Speaker 1: That's what you got to do. You know, win one game.
1:01:30
Speaker 1: That's what you got to do, right? So it's very
1:01:34
Speaker 1: difficult to figure out what Tampa's mental state is going
1:01:36
Speaker 1: to be in this game. It could range, like, wildly
1:01:40
Speaker 1: from being completely deflated and then they just lose and
1:01:43
Speaker 1: get swept out. Or... hugely motivated. I don't know which
1:01:47
Speaker 1: it's going to be. I really don't. Yeah, so we
1:01:51
Speaker 1: got to look at the bullpen usage from last night,
1:01:53
Speaker 1: but I think there probably wasn't really heavy bullpen usage
1:01:56
Speaker 1: from any of the better relievers because the game was
1:01:58
Speaker 1: so out of reach. Yeah, after Peralta was awful in
1:02:03
Speaker 1: the game, the bullpen setup is going to be better
1:02:05
Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. They used Brandon Woodruff yesterday. Yeah, and Sensatella, correct.
1:02:12
Speaker 1: He actually, Sensatella was good in the game yesterday, even
1:02:15
Speaker 1: though he is complete ass. Yeah, there you go, dirty sock.
1:02:19
Speaker 1: Woodruff is the better pitcher, and Woodruff actually gave up
1:02:22
Speaker 1: the run in the ninth inning yesterday and wasn't good.
1:02:24
Speaker 1: But Woodruff, interesting to see him back in the mix there. Woodruff,
1:02:30
Speaker 1: he's a good pitcher, man. He's just had a very
1:02:32
Speaker 1: injury-plagued career, which sucks because he used to be really good.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: I kind of forgot about him, really. If he was healthy,
1:02:40
Speaker 1: he'd be in Milwaukee's rotation right now, so interesting. But yeah,
1:02:43
Speaker 1: Milwaukee basically saved their whole bullpen yesterday. Gasser gave them
1:02:47
Speaker 1: a really nice start to a one-hit performance through six innings.
1:02:51
Speaker 1: Peralta was horrific, and then the Rays had to use
1:02:54
Speaker 1: five relief pitchers. So the bullpen edge in this game
1:02:57
Speaker 1: definitely goes to Milwaukee. they got the better bullpen anyway here. And, um, yeah,
1:03:03
Speaker 1: they set up better here with more rest here. So
1:03:05
Speaker 1: the bullpen edge goes to Milwaukee here. Um, starting pitching.
1:03:09
Speaker 1: We don't know what the deal is here. Um, Milwaukee, um,
1:03:14
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think they're going to go to
1:03:15
Speaker 1: Mizzerowski again. I don't know when did he pitch in
1:03:17
Speaker 1: game one, but I don't know how many days ago
1:03:19
Speaker 1: that was. Um, this website is just not loading fast enough, man.
1:03:24
Speaker 1: Let me say, um, It might be Dustin May, actually.
1:03:29
Speaker 1: I forgot they even had him. if Milwaukee was going
1:03:32
Speaker 1: to go to a different pitcher, they might use may
1:03:33
Speaker 1: here to just give their starters a little bit of
1:03:35
Speaker 1: rest here. May actually pitched three days ago in the series.
1:03:39
Speaker 1: They pitched for one inning. So I don't know if
1:03:41
Speaker 1: they're going to use him or not. If they do
1:03:43
Speaker 1: use him though, he does not have good numbers against
1:03:45
Speaker 1: the rays. So if may pitches, uh, that gives Tampa
1:03:49
Speaker 1: a little bit of a shot, at least early in
1:03:51
Speaker 1: the game. Um, may was also really bad on the road, 5.88
1:03:54
Speaker 1: roadie array, but we don't know if Milwaukee is going
1:03:57
Speaker 1: to use him or not. Um, They might use Mizorowski again,
1:04:01
Speaker 1: but when did he last pitch is the question. Let
1:04:06
Speaker 1: me look here. He pitched on the 23rd. That was
1:04:09
Speaker 1: his last start. I don't think they're going to use him, man.
1:04:12
Speaker 1: He's basically on three days rest. And he's been walking
1:04:15
Speaker 1: too many guys. That was his best start, though, in
1:04:17
Speaker 1: the postseason, the one against Tampa. But I think they're
1:04:20
Speaker 1: not going to use him here. They don't need to push.
1:04:23
Speaker 1: They're up 3-0. They don't need to overuse their young
1:04:26
Speaker 1: starter like that. I think Milwaukee might wind up going
1:04:30
Speaker 1: with a bullpen game here, actually, to be honest. They
1:04:32
Speaker 1: might mix and match Milwaukee. their pitchers. So that makes
1:04:34
Speaker 1: it a little bit difficult. May might be involved in
1:04:37
Speaker 1: that game, but they might use Shane Drohan as well. Uh,
1:04:41
Speaker 1: cause he's their other guy that's in their starting rotation.
1:04:43
Speaker 1: So I'm expecting some mix of these two guys was like, Hey,
1:04:46
Speaker 1: Drohan finally has this picture on ESPN. Finally, after not
1:04:51
Speaker 1: being there the whole season, there you go. Um, Drohan
1:04:54
Speaker 1: was actually a little bit better on the road, believe
1:04:56
Speaker 1: it or not. And, um, Drohan has only pitched once
1:05:00
Speaker 1: in the postseason, though, in the NLCS, and he wasn't
1:05:03
Speaker 1: good against the Dodgers. So I don't know if that's
1:05:06
Speaker 1: good or not. Tampa has almost no experience against them, though.
1:05:09
Speaker 1: Hicks is one for three, often with a single. So
1:05:13
Speaker 1: do with all that information what you want, I guess.
1:05:15
Speaker 1: I'm going to go back to the MLB schedule here. Yeah,
1:05:20
Speaker 1: it's tough to figure this out. Milwaukee's actually favored. And
1:05:24
Speaker 1: we know that Tampa's going to be going with Griffin
1:05:26
Speaker 1: Jacks here. although they might put an opener in front
1:05:29
Speaker 1: of him too, so I don't know. If you're going
1:05:30
Speaker 1: to play this game, you might want to just play
1:05:33
Speaker 1: it action if you're really going to play this game.
1:05:35
Speaker 1: I think Jax is going to be the bulk pitcher
1:05:39
Speaker 1: for Tampa, but they might put an opener in front
1:05:40
Speaker 1: of him or something. Jax had a 3.53 ERA this year, 1.18 whip,
1:05:45
Speaker 1: pretty good numbers. He was a little bit better at
1:05:47
Speaker 1: home as well, 3.45 home ERA. He pitched once in
1:05:51
Speaker 1: each series in the playoffs so far. He was Pretty
1:05:54
Speaker 1: good against the Yankees, but in a limited role, two innings.
1:05:56
Speaker 1: And then he pitched four innings against Cleveland, and he
1:05:59
Speaker 1: was not good in that start. Surprisingly, because I think
1:06:02
Speaker 1: he is usually pretty good against them. So that's maybe
1:06:05
Speaker 1: not a good sign. Jack's, you know, he's not an
1:06:08
Speaker 1: inexperienced pitcher, though, so I don't know. But up against Milwaukee,
1:06:12
Speaker 1: he's also bad. In 38 at-bats, 316 average allowed, 830 OPS,
1:06:17
Speaker 1: 7-6 strikeout walk ratio. None of those numbers are good. So...
1:06:22
Speaker 1: You know, I mean, Milwaukee might be a little bit
1:06:24
Speaker 1: overvalued being in the minus 120-something range here as a
1:06:27
Speaker 1: road favorite here, especially without one of their better starters
1:06:30
Speaker 1: on the mound. But I think the oddsmakers are kind of...
1:06:33
Speaker 1: The oddsmakers do this. When a team falls down 0-3,
1:06:36
Speaker 1: they shift the line towards the team that's up 3-0
1:06:39
Speaker 1: because I think the general consensus is the 0-3 team.
1:06:43
Speaker 1: A lot of times they just... They're dead, basically. You
1:06:46
Speaker 1: know what I mean? That could happen here, but... I
1:06:50
Speaker 1: think the better way to play this game, I feel
1:06:51
Speaker 1: like a broken record, but I would say the over again.
1:06:54
Speaker 1: And I've been right about the over in... I've been
1:06:58
Speaker 1: right about the total in every game in the World
1:07:00
Speaker 1: Series so far, even though I haven't given any of
1:07:01
Speaker 1: them out as a play. The under probably shouldn't have
1:07:04
Speaker 1: happened in Game 1, though. There were a lot of
1:07:06
Speaker 1: hits in Game 1. I liked the under, and it's
1:07:08
Speaker 1: still because of the long layoff and whatever, and it happened,
1:07:11
Speaker 1: but it was a little bit lucky. to get the
1:07:13
Speaker 1: under there. And in game two and game three, I said,
1:07:15
Speaker 1: I liked the over and both of those were correct,
1:07:18
Speaker 1: but I like it again here. Uh, the pitching, this
1:07:21
Speaker 1: looks like some of the like least pitching, uh, as
1:07:24
Speaker 1: far as the pitching quality, this is like the least
1:07:26
Speaker 1: you're going to see in the series. In my opinion,
1:07:29
Speaker 1: the matchup numbers don't look good really for any of
1:07:32
Speaker 1: the guys that might actually get work here. Um, so yeah,
1:07:35
Speaker 1: I like the over in this one. Uh, the total
1:07:37
Speaker 1: is seven for the most part. It looks like seven
1:07:39
Speaker 1: and a half at some places. Um, Yeah, try to
1:07:43
Speaker 1: find the seven, obviously, if you're going to play the
1:07:45
Speaker 1: over here. At least it's indoors, so that'll help the
1:07:48
Speaker 1: hitting a little bit. They don't have to deal with
1:07:50
Speaker 1: the October elements. But yeah, I like the over here. Seven, obviously, preferable.
1:07:57
Speaker 1: It is juiced to the over. But I would try
1:08:00
Speaker 1: to do that and not go over seven and a half,
1:08:03
Speaker 1: if you can help it. As far as the side, I...
1:08:08
Speaker 1: I probably, I guess, lean Milwaukee as far as the side,
1:08:10
Speaker 1: but I got pretty much nothing on that. Over, to me,
1:08:13
Speaker 1: seems like the much better way to approach this game.
1:08:16
Speaker 1: All right. And then we have two college football games.
1:08:21
Speaker 1: We're still not into Tuesday Maction yet, although the Maction
1:08:24
Speaker 1: is probably not going to be much more exciting, or
1:08:27
Speaker 1: it might be less exciting than what we're already getting
1:08:29
Speaker 1: on Tuesday with these Conference USA games. If you want excitement,
1:08:34
Speaker 1: I mean, the first game might have a lot of
1:08:35
Speaker 1: scoring in it. It's got a high total. Delaware and
1:08:38
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky on CBS Sports Network at 7 p.m. Delaware's
1:08:43
Speaker 1: got a pretty good passing attack, especially because their quarterback
1:08:46
Speaker 1: is back, Minicucci. I'm not going to make the same
1:08:49
Speaker 1: joke again, but Nick Minicucci, he's back for Delaware. He
1:08:54
Speaker 1: came back last game. And Western Kentucky, I think they're
1:08:59
Speaker 1: also kind of better offensively than defensively. Delaware definitely is.
1:09:03
Speaker 1: So this game may have the makings of an over.
1:09:06
Speaker 1: It might seem too easy, though, because Delaware had a
1:09:09
Speaker 1: ridiculous game in their last game. We saw what Delaware
1:09:12
Speaker 1: did last week. They won 61-38 in one of these
1:09:16
Speaker 1: midweek games last week where everybody saw it against Missouri State.
1:09:20
Speaker 1: So people are going to probably want Delaware after they
1:09:23
Speaker 1: won by a ridiculous amount like that. But you know me,
1:09:26
Speaker 1: I don't want a team after they... put up a
1:09:29
Speaker 1: score like that. I'm going to be more likely to
1:09:32
Speaker 1: fade a team after they have a score like that.
1:09:34
Speaker 1: Their next game is only against Kennesaw, which is not
1:09:36
Speaker 1: going to be that big of a deal. Kennesaw is
1:09:37
Speaker 1: near the bottom of the conference. So Western Kentucky may
1:09:40
Speaker 1: actually draw more of Delaware's focus because Western Kentucky is
1:09:44
Speaker 1: actually ahead of them in the conference standings here. But still,
1:09:47
Speaker 1: I don't want a team off a 61-point lead. you know,
1:09:50
Speaker 1: shootout fest there, whatever you want to call it. What
1:09:53
Speaker 1: I will say about Delaware, though, is they've had a
1:09:55
Speaker 1: fairly difficult schedule, so they're better than their record indicates.
1:09:59
Speaker 1: And this is a Delaware team that moved up to FBS,
1:10:02
Speaker 1: I think, last year, maybe. Or maybe it was a
1:10:05
Speaker 1: few years ago. I forget if there's a transition period
1:10:08
Speaker 1: still to make the bowls or not. But either way,
1:10:10
Speaker 1: I think you can petition to make the bowls anyway.
1:10:12
Speaker 1: But I know Delaware was in a bowl last year,
1:10:15
Speaker 1: and I think they may have actually won it as well.
1:10:18
Speaker 1: And they may be headed towards another bowl this year.
1:10:20
Speaker 1: They're going to have to get some wins here, though.
1:10:22
Speaker 1: But Delaware, their schedule has not been easy. They have
1:10:25
Speaker 1: losses to Vandy, Virginia, Liberty. Those are not easy teams
1:10:29
Speaker 1: to beat. Liberty is in this conference. They're the best
1:10:32
Speaker 1: team in it. And then Delaware lost their quarterback in
1:10:36
Speaker 1: the Virginia game, Minacucci. So the two games that he
1:10:38
Speaker 1: was out were the loss to Liberty, and then they
1:10:41
Speaker 1: lost a close game to Middle Tennessee, which was a
1:10:43
Speaker 1: bad loss. But that was with Minacucci out. And he
1:10:47
Speaker 1: came back last game and they put up 61 points
1:10:50
Speaker 1: and I don't, you know, wasn't sure he was going
1:10:52
Speaker 1: to be back or not. I don't love teams when
1:10:54
Speaker 1: their starting quarterback comes back necessarily. Uh, you know, because
1:10:58
Speaker 1: sometimes they can get a little bit complacent and he's
1:11:00
Speaker 1: got to work his way back in. But I liked
1:11:03
Speaker 1: Delaware in that game anyway, because they were coming off
1:11:05
Speaker 1: an ugly loss in middle Tennessee. So I actually had
1:11:07
Speaker 1: a good gauge on Delaware the last two weeks. I
1:11:09
Speaker 1: was right about their games at least. Um, This game,
1:11:13
Speaker 1: I would be more likely to fade them, though, coming
1:11:15
Speaker 1: off that nice performance against Missouri State. Western Kentucky is
1:11:19
Speaker 1: actually coming out of a bye. They had a bye
1:11:21
Speaker 1: after their last game, but they did go into the
1:11:23
Speaker 1: bye on a two-game win streak. They also beat Missouri
1:11:26
Speaker 1: State by a big margin, and then they beat Sam
1:11:29
Speaker 1: Houston before the bye. Now, I don't like byes when
1:11:33
Speaker 1: teams go into it on a two-game win streak. I
1:11:35
Speaker 1: think the bye can disrupt your momentum. That's the case
1:11:38
Speaker 1: with Western Kentucky. However... People are going to look at
1:11:42
Speaker 1: that 16-3 win over Sam Houston and look at Delaware
1:11:46
Speaker 1: putting up 61 points, the inverse of 16. I think
1:11:51
Speaker 1: that's what the public's going to look at. Oh yeah,
1:11:53
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky just put up 16 in their last game
1:11:55
Speaker 1: against a bad Sam Houston team. And Delaware just put
1:11:59
Speaker 1: up 61 against an okay Missouri State team. Um, so,
1:12:03
Speaker 1: you know, the public's just going to be on that.
1:12:06
Speaker 1: They're going to see those offensive numbers and only want
1:12:08
Speaker 1: Delaware here. So I would disagree with that. I would
1:12:11
Speaker 1: lean towards Western Kentucky here. Even like, don't like the potential, uh,
1:12:15
Speaker 1: momentum disruption of the buy here. I'm not sure if
1:12:18
Speaker 1: we consider that to be going into the buy at
1:12:20
Speaker 1: a really good note, like not playing that well against
1:12:22
Speaker 1: Sam Houston, really, really ugly, um, And I tend to
1:12:28
Speaker 1: like teams that are coming off an ugly win like
1:12:30
Speaker 1: that because I think they get a little bit undervalued,
1:12:32
Speaker 1: whereas teams that play in a high scoring shootout get overvalued.
1:12:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'll lean on Western Kentucky in this one.
1:12:38
Speaker 1: We do actually have percentages on these games. The line
1:12:42
Speaker 1: already flipped Delaware from minus one all the way to
1:12:45
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky, minus one, minus one and a half. So
1:12:47
Speaker 1: the money looks like it flipped the line here, although
1:12:51
Speaker 1: we have 67% of the tickets and 81% of the
1:12:53
Speaker 1: cash on Delaware. So Delaware is a public side. Looks
1:12:56
Speaker 1: like they may be getting more of the money, but yeah,
1:12:59
Speaker 1: I would fade that public sentiment in this one. I
1:13:01
Speaker 1: would lean Western Kentucky, and I still like the over
1:13:04
Speaker 1: as well, even though the money's coming in on the under.
1:13:06
Speaker 1: Just stylistically, this seems like an over to me. The
1:13:09
Speaker 1: total's just hovering around 57, which I forget if 57
1:13:14
Speaker 1: really specifically is a key number, but Yeah, I mean,
1:13:18
Speaker 1: I'd rather have 57 than 57.5. They're going to go
1:13:20
Speaker 1: over with it. But it's a fairly high total, and
1:13:23
Speaker 1: it's high for a reason. So those are the things
1:13:26
Speaker 1: that make sense there. But yeah, I mean, there's a
1:13:28
Speaker 1: reason why Western Kentucky is favored as well, slightly. And
1:13:32
Speaker 1: then the other thing is, as I point out every
1:13:34
Speaker 1: time with these midweek games, the home team usually gets
1:13:36
Speaker 1: a little bit of a boost motivationally because... Even though
1:13:40
Speaker 1: it seems like these teams are just on these midweek
1:13:41
Speaker 1: games every week now, you know what I mean? So
1:13:43
Speaker 1: maybe it means less now because these teams are starting
1:13:46
Speaker 1: to do this week in and week out. Now it's
1:13:48
Speaker 1: the same teams playing in these midweek games every week,
1:13:51
Speaker 1: it seems. But even so, it's kind of a big,
1:13:54
Speaker 1: isolated game. It's on one of the bigger networks. You know,
1:13:58
Speaker 1: the crowd usually shows up more heavily for games like this.
1:14:03
Speaker 1: And get drunk throughout the day and whatever to get
1:14:06
Speaker 1: ready for the game or whatever. So usually the home
1:14:09
Speaker 1: team does get a little bit of a boost in
1:14:11
Speaker 1: games like this. So lean Western Kentucky in that one.
1:14:14
Speaker 1: The other game, Sam Houston stayed at Missouri State. This game,
1:14:18
Speaker 1: maybe not as interesting. Sam Houston's not very good. Their
1:14:21
Speaker 1: offense in particular is bad. very bad, although their defense
1:14:25
Speaker 1: is not that bad. They lost last week in kind
1:14:28
Speaker 1: of a high-scoring effort against New Mexico State. They were
1:14:31
Speaker 1: not as good in that game as it looked on
1:14:32
Speaker 1: the scoreboard, though. New Mexico State won that game statistically,
1:14:36
Speaker 1: and I leaned New Mexico State in the game. I
1:14:38
Speaker 1: also leaned under, and people give me shit in the
1:14:41
Speaker 1: comments here. You were wrong about everything. No, I was
1:14:44
Speaker 1: right about the side in that game with New Mexico State.
1:14:46
Speaker 1: It was not a game I was recommending touching with
1:14:48
Speaker 1: your money. I was wrong about the under because there
1:14:51
Speaker 1: was some late scoring that Pushed the game over, but
1:14:54
Speaker 1: if you look at how much offense there was in
1:14:56
Speaker 1: that game, there wasn't a whole lot. It wasn't like
1:14:59
Speaker 1: it was a shootout by any means. New Mexico State
1:15:01
Speaker 1: had like 300-something yards of offense, and Sam Houston had 200-something.
1:15:05
Speaker 1: Does that sound like an over type of game to you? No,
1:15:08
Speaker 1: not really. So I wasn't really that wrong with my
1:15:12
Speaker 1: gauge on that game, but there was some late scoring
1:15:14
Speaker 1: that went on. Uh, Sam Houston scored a garbage touchdown
1:15:18
Speaker 1: at the end. If they were down 30 to 17,
1:15:20
Speaker 1: they scored late when there was like almost no time
1:15:23
Speaker 1: left to cut it to 30 to 24. New Mexico
1:15:26
Speaker 1: state was the rightful winner in that game though. Like
1:15:29
Speaker 1: I said, they outgained Sam Houston by over a hundred
1:15:31
Speaker 1: yards in that game. So I think that game actually
1:15:33
Speaker 1: may make Sam Houston look better than they actually even
1:15:36
Speaker 1: really are. They did not play that well in that game.
1:15:39
Speaker 1: And I know there were some professionals, sharp guys, whatever,
1:15:43
Speaker 1: that liked Sam Houston in that game. I disagreed with it.
1:15:46
Speaker 1: I didn't. Missouri State sitting at 2-5, not a good record.
1:15:50
Speaker 1: But the Osweggers are telling you Missouri State's the better
1:15:52
Speaker 1: team here. Sam Houston is in the dregs of this
1:15:56
Speaker 1: conference this year Missouri State is definitely the better offense
1:15:59
Speaker 1: at least here Missouri State sitting at about 5.5 here
1:16:02
Speaker 1: although it went down from an opener of 6 looks
1:16:05
Speaker 1: like they are getting the money though 67% of the
1:16:09
Speaker 1: tickets and 86% of the cash on them. The total's
1:16:12
Speaker 1: gone up through the key number of 51 to now 51.5.
1:16:15
Speaker 1: So if you like the over here, you kind of
1:16:17
Speaker 1: missed the best number there. Although you might be able
1:16:19
Speaker 1: to find... Maybe you can find a 51 still somewhere.
1:16:22
Speaker 1: It looks like a public over in this game, though.
1:16:24
Speaker 1: I don't have a great gauge on the total here
1:16:26
Speaker 1: in this one. Missouri State, they were the... the loser
1:16:30
Speaker 1: to Delaware last week. So they got obliterated last week
1:16:33
Speaker 1: by Delaware. I think they're going to refocus after a
1:16:36
Speaker 1: game like that. Who's going to want to lay six
1:16:38
Speaker 1: points with a 2-5 team that just lost 61-38? You
1:16:43
Speaker 1: know what I mean? I know the public has a
1:16:46
Speaker 1: slight lean towards Missouri State here, but this is not
1:16:48
Speaker 1: a heavy public lean here. You know what I mean?
1:16:52
Speaker 1: So I think Missouri State may be in a bounce-back
1:16:54
Speaker 1: mode after that hideous game last week. Plus, they are
1:16:57
Speaker 1: the home team here, so they might get a little
1:16:58
Speaker 1: bit more up for a game like this. And again,
1:17:01
Speaker 1: Sam Houston, yeah, just, they actually, you know, You could
1:17:07
Speaker 1: argue they put in kind of a tough performance last
1:17:09
Speaker 1: week against New Mexico State. And they do have Jacksonville
1:17:12
Speaker 1: State on deck, by the way. Jacksonville State is tied
1:17:14
Speaker 1: atop the conference here. So with a team like Sam Houston,
1:17:18
Speaker 1: even though technically if they win all the rest of
1:17:20
Speaker 1: their games, they could still make a bowl, they know
1:17:23
Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. So I think maybe they're
1:17:25
Speaker 1: going to put more weight into that Jacksonville State game.
1:17:27
Speaker 1: Because when you're a dead team like Sam Houston, you
1:17:30
Speaker 1: only get up for certain games. And I don't know
1:17:32
Speaker 1: if tonight's game is going to be one of those games,
1:17:35
Speaker 1: even though I know it's an isolated game. ESPN 2 game.
1:17:39
Speaker 1: They might have more weight in that game against Jacksonville
1:17:41
Speaker 1: State because they're going to get a chance to play
1:17:43
Speaker 1: spoiler against one of the top teams in the conference.
1:17:46
Speaker 1: So there is a possible look ahead there, actually. Missouri State.
1:17:50
Speaker 1: I believe they made a bowl last year. Did they
1:17:52
Speaker 1: make a bowl last year? I forget. I think they
1:17:54
Speaker 1: might have. I forget. But yeah, I think they're less
1:17:56
Speaker 1: likely to look ahead because they have FIU on deck
1:18:00
Speaker 1: who hasn't really been that great. And coming off just
1:18:03
Speaker 1: a disgusting-looking loss, I'd leave Missouri State in this one.
1:18:06
Speaker 1: I don't really have a great gauge for the total, though,
1:18:08
Speaker 1: but I think I would lay it with Missouri State
1:18:10
Speaker 1: in that one. And that's it, man. That will do
1:18:14
Speaker 1: it for the show. We got some plays today. We
1:18:16
Speaker 1: got NHL, because there were so many games today. We
1:18:19
Speaker 1: got the Philadelphia Flyers. Moneyline is a little bit of
1:18:22
Speaker 1: an underdog there. We got the St. Louis Blues as
1:18:24
Speaker 1: a kind of misleading-looking small favorite here. I like the Islanders, too.
1:18:32
Speaker 1: That's my first cut, or my last cut. So I
1:18:34
Speaker 1: do like the Islanders. That's a strong lean for me.
1:18:37
Speaker 1: That's not on my card. And then, unfortunately, my next best...
1:18:41
Speaker 1: Reid in the NHL was Vancouver as a huge puck
1:18:43
Speaker 1: line underdog. God. No thanks on that one. And then
1:18:48
Speaker 1: we have the NBA play. We're laying it with the
1:18:50
Speaker 1: New York Knicks, which I don't think anybody's going to
1:18:53
Speaker 1: want to do. My, how things change. The returning champs
1:18:58
Speaker 1: Might be an anti-public team here for once. Yeah, yet
1:19:03
Speaker 1: they're still a favorite. So those are the plays today.
1:19:06
Speaker 1: Three-play card today. Nice little trio. Let's go 2-1 and
1:19:10
Speaker 1: get back on the winning track here. That's the goal here. Thanks, everybody,
1:19:14
Speaker 1: for hanging out. That's going to do it. Learn to
1:19:16
Speaker 1: Toad on Twitter. Instagram, sort of TikTok, if they allow
1:19:20
Speaker 1: me to actually get reached there. We'll see. Listen to
1:19:24
Speaker 1: this show, obviously. Like, subscribe, comment, do all the things.
1:19:28
Speaker 1: Boost this channel up, man. Toadstool Sports, tell everybody about it.
1:19:32
Speaker 1: If you like what I'm doing here, giving out tons
1:19:34
Speaker 1: and tons of info. Giving out winning plays. I apologize.
1:19:37
Speaker 1: I forgot to put the banner back up. I apologize.
1:19:41
Speaker 1: There it is. You know, we get some winners on
1:19:45
Speaker 1: the show. Enough to... profit for sure so there you
1:19:48
Speaker 1: go um and you know you can go back i'm
1:19:51
Speaker 1: tracking this day by day so people can call me
1:19:53
Speaker 1: out if i fuck this up or whatever um if
1:19:55
Speaker 1: i do it's an honest mistake but yeah like i'm
1:19:58
Speaker 1: tracking the record here been doing it for 205 days
1:20:01
Speaker 1: now tracking the actual record although i've been doing the
1:20:03
Speaker 1: show for a couple years now but i'm not yeah
1:20:05
Speaker 1: gonna mislead anybody lie to anybody this these are my
1:20:09
Speaker 1: actual plays i'm tracking them here on the show so
1:20:12
Speaker 1: again unless i make an honest mistake. These numbers are
1:20:15
Speaker 1: exactly what they are. Everything is, you know, tracked on
1:20:18
Speaker 1: the show here. Like I give out my plays on
1:20:20
Speaker 1: the show. So you can obviously hold me accountable. These
1:20:23
Speaker 1: are my, these are my plays. That's what they are.
1:20:25
Speaker 1: And then I update the counter each day, uh, with
1:20:28
Speaker 1: exactly what happened from, uh, the previous day. So there
1:20:31
Speaker 1: you go. Um, you know, and some of them, yes,
1:20:34
Speaker 1: you know, there might be like a thing where I'm
1:20:35
Speaker 1: telling you to wait and try to get a better
1:20:37
Speaker 1: line and whatever. And I might update that a little bit.
1:20:40
Speaker 1: If I do happen to get a better line on
1:20:41
Speaker 1: those things. Um, So, you know, for tracking purposes, you know,
1:20:47
Speaker 1: it depends, like, on what happens with those lines, basically. But, yes, that— anyway,
1:20:51
Speaker 1: I'm rambling again. Listen to the show. Like, subscribe. Tell
1:20:54
Speaker 1: everybody about it. Listen on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, all
1:20:59
Speaker 1: those things. That helps out as well. Covered in Uke
1:21:02
Speaker 1: is my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check that out. Patreon.com
1:21:06
Speaker 1: slash LearnToToad. Some extra ukulele stuff there. And Loser Cast
1:21:11
Speaker 1: will be back tonight with a new episode. We definitely
1:21:15
Speaker 1: got some loser options that just came up within the
1:21:17
Speaker 1: last day or two as well. You guys saw that
1:21:20
Speaker 1: fiasco going on with a certain member of the Libertarian
1:21:25
Speaker 1: Party yesterday. We're going to probably be talking about that
1:21:28
Speaker 1: on the show. I usually don't like talking about party stuff,
1:21:32
Speaker 1: but that hit the mainstream hard, and it is pretty hilarious,
1:21:36
Speaker 1: so it's going to happen soon. We have too many
1:21:40
Speaker 1: potential loser picks this week, so we're going to have
1:21:42
Speaker 1: to whittle the list down. That's going to do it.
1:21:45
Speaker 1: I appreciate it, everybody. And also subscribe here because I
1:21:49
Speaker 1: do some shows that are off the schedule a little bit.
1:21:54
Speaker 1: There is going to be a college basketball preview I'm
1:21:56
Speaker 1: going to do at some point, but bear with me
1:21:58
Speaker 1: on that show because, again, I don't follow the transfers
1:22:00
Speaker 1: and stuff very well, so I don't know the personnel
1:22:03
Speaker 1: that well. And speaking of which, I forgot to mention
1:22:07
Speaker 1: Dusty May is the coach of the Dallas Mavericks now,
1:22:09
Speaker 1: by the way, who we faded last time. But I
1:22:11
Speaker 1: think that should have helped us in fading them because
1:22:15
Speaker 1: they have a new coach there. He was the coach
1:22:17
Speaker 1: of Michigan when they won the championship last year and
1:22:19
Speaker 1: the year before that. And he bailed after two years
1:22:22
Speaker 1: there and went to Dallas. But I think there's always
1:22:25
Speaker 1: growing pains when you have a new coach there. on
1:22:27
Speaker 1: a team like that. And he's trying to implement his
1:22:29
Speaker 1: new system. So that would have been another reason yet
1:22:31
Speaker 1: just to just generally fade Dallas early in the season.
1:22:34
Speaker 1: But yeah, we didn't get there with that one yesterday.
1:22:37
Speaker 1: It is what it is, man, but whatever. So yes,
1:22:39
Speaker 1: be on the lookout for the college basketball preview. That's
1:22:41
Speaker 1: mostly going to be kind of a rundown of what
1:22:43
Speaker 1: the odds are saying though. And, you know, see if
1:22:46
Speaker 1: I think if there's any value on certain teams or whatever. Yeah,
1:22:51
Speaker 1: it's just going to be basically comparing the odds to
1:22:53
Speaker 1: what we saw last year. And, you know, if anything
1:22:55
Speaker 1: looks good, looks strange you know those are the things
1:22:59
Speaker 1: you might want to key on there uh very very
1:23:02
Speaker 1: difficult to predict college basketball though extremely difficult um and
1:23:06
Speaker 1: we'll bring up you know probably like the ken bomb
1:23:08
Speaker 1: rankings and stuff like that and take a look at
1:23:10
Speaker 1: what he's saying as well but he doesn't have any
1:23:12
Speaker 1: data yet so he's just going on i don't know
1:23:15
Speaker 1: what he uses analytically uh with his preseason rankings so
1:23:19
Speaker 1: um i don't know if it's got to be some
1:23:21
Speaker 1: mix of like he's looking at the players that each
1:23:23
Speaker 1: team has and what they did in previous years and
1:23:26
Speaker 1: trying to coalesce that into what this team is now,
1:23:30
Speaker 1: something like that. Anyway, because a lot of transfers, players
1:23:34
Speaker 1: go into different teams, so you know who that player is,
1:23:37
Speaker 1: but he's not going to be taking into account what
1:23:39
Speaker 1: the chemistry is going to look like with these newly
1:23:42
Speaker 1: formed teams. Anyway, I should be saving that for that show,
1:23:46
Speaker 1: but yes, be on the lookout for that soon because
1:23:49
Speaker 1: it starts next Tuesday, so I've got to do that
1:23:51
Speaker 1: at some point. That's going to do it for now, though. Peace.
1:23:56
Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
1:24:01
Speaker 2: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have to
1:24:08
Speaker 2: lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
1:24:17
Speaker 3: On, not tonight.
1:24:19
Speaker 2: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
1:24:29
Speaker 2: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
1:24:37
Speaker 2: the crown Hold on, hold.
1:24:42
Speaker 3: On Stay with me now
1:24:47
Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo